ISIS leader Baghdadi killed

Will ISIS splinter into multiple extremist groups?...
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Why the death of ISIS’s leader could spell trouble
June 16, 2017 - If Baghdadi is indeed dead, it will cripple ISIS, but it could also lead to a resurgence of an even more dangerous al-Qaeda
The news of the possible death of the leader of the so-called Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, no doubt filled most people with a certain sense of relief. It’s not often the death of a human being elicits such an emotion but Baghdadi, most sane people can agree, barely makes the homo sapiens cut. Nonetheless, our collective exhale may be premature. According to the Russian defence ministry, Baghdadi may have been caught by a Russian airstrike targeting a meeting of senior ISIS commanders south of Raqqa, the capital of the group’s self-declared caliphate, at the end of May. He was reportedly killed along with 30 other mid-level ISIS commanders and 300 fighters.

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A man purported to be the reclusive leader of the militant Islamic State Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has made what would be his first public appearance at a mosque in the centre of Iraq's second city, Mosul, according to a video recording posted on the Internet on July 5, 2014, in this still image taken from video. There had previously been reports on social media that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi would make his first public appearance since his Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) changed its name to the Islamic State and declared him caliph. The Iraqi government denied that the video, which carried Friday's date, was credible. It was also not possible to immediately confirm the authenticity of the recording or the date when it was made.​

Putting aside the neatly rounded death toll figures, there are a few details which cast doubt on the reports. Why, for instance, are the Russians only now disclosing the alleged death, more than two weeks after the airstrike, adding they have not confirmed if it is true? If it is still unconfirmed, one would expect them to withhold information until more is known. Secondly, the location does not jibe with intelligence reports that Baghdadi was laying low in the desert along the Syrian-Iraqi border. This is what Iraqi intelligence officials told me recently and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed shortly after the Russian announcement. “The information is that, as of the end of last month, Baghdadi was in Deir al-Zor, in the area between Deir al-Zor and Iraq, in Syrian territory,” Rami Abdulrahman, the Observatory’s director said.

Regardless, most experts agree Baghdadi will be killed at some point, if he isn’t dead already. The last time he made a public statement was November last year, when he released an audio message calling on his fighters to hold ground against the advancing Iraqi army in Mosul, even as he himself made a dash for the desert. The question is: what will his death mean for ISIS and the broader jihadist enterprise?

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Turki al-Bin’ali, the chief cleric who referred to himself as the Grand Mufti, was killed by U.S.-led coalition forces in Syria in May, according to a press release from Operation Inherent Resolve. Bin’ali’s central job was to recruit foreign fighters and instigate terror attacks. He held the high-ranking position from 2014 until May, according to details issued by the coalition.
 

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