Believe in Polls?

[Catman51]

Do you believe in the political polls, even after they have been wrong on the outcome of elections more often than not in recent years?

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

They still have value, but we are now in a post-truth society, so be careful.

 

[rampart]

polls are about as good as hurricane predictions. the outcome is usually within the cone of uncertainty.

 

[Muhammed]

Do you believe in the political polls

It very profoundly depends on weather or not it is a credible poll.

For instance, if I hire professional pollsters, that poll it is a hell of a lot more credible than some sort of fake "poll".

 

[JoeMoma]

I believe in poles.

 

[Crepitus]

Look at the aggregates, not individual polls.

 

[Rogue AI]

Polls are a joke these days. Dig through the data and it becomes apparent. Polls now have 'weighted' values that alter the result not verified by the actual data collected. The demographic data sets often do not reflect reality, like polling more Democrats while more people identify as Republicans. Polling these days only serves the purpose of driving a given narrative not reflecting the truth.

 

[rightwinger]

Their degree of accuracy is not as close as they say they are

What still counts is getting out the vote

 

[luiza]

They still have value, but we are now in a post-truth society, so be careful.

Post truth ?
Do you mean an untruthful society , Horsey Horse ?
We need to keep chatting in English and Truth is not governed by its post status . It travels just as well by text or email .
Catch up old boy .

 

[rampart]

Post truth ?
Do you mean an untruthful society , Horsey Horse ?
We need to keep chatting in English and Truth is not governed by its post status . It travels just as well by text or email .
Catch up old boy .

he means the world created by trump and described by bannon and kelly ann conway as "a post truth society, with alternate facts" supplied by them.

 

[Oddball]

no

 

[Rogue AI]

he means the world created by trump and described by bannon and kelly ann conway as "a post truth society, with alternate facts" supplied by them.

Right, but things like, 'if you like your plan... or safe and effective' play no part in your narrative. Pathetic.

 

[Hellokitty]

It's harder to find the breakdown of poll, you have to know the % of democrats, republicans, and independents they use. Many of the polls are oversampling democrats.

 

[Rawley]

Do you believe in the political polls, even after they have been wrong on the outcome of elections more often than not in recent years?

Nope

 

[WelfareQueen]

Their degree of accuracy is not as close as they say they are

What still counts is getting out the vote

It is interesting that in both 2016 and 2020 the polls greatly underestimated Trump's support. Versus Hillary the national polls gave Trump -1.5% average in the National Polls. In 2020 Trump got -3.5% in National polls versus Biden.

Right now, National Polls show a dead heat. If that is the case, in reality Trump is probably up 1-2%. It will be a close election, but I do not have confidence the polls are accurately showing Trump's true support. I do know one thing, his voters are very highly motivated to vote. And as you said, turnout is the key.

 

[WelfareQueen]

It's harder to find the breakdown of poll, you have to know the % of democrats, republicans, and independents they use. Many of the polls are oversampling democrats.

They play with the independent voters' numbers. For example, if a third of your sample is Independents, where are they polling those independents? Because if you are a self-identified independent voter in Arkansas, you probably lean right. If you are a self-identified independent voter in San Francisco, you probably lean left.

This is how they play with the numbers. Where are they sampling their voters, and specifically self-identified independent voters.

 

[Fang]

There's so much lying and manipulation out there that I don't believe much of anything. It's why the candidates themselves need to get out and talk as much as they can. We need to hear straight from them, and not surrogates or news organizations. I think this will be Kamala's ultimate undoing. She should be on FoxNews and should talk to anyone who will put a mic in front of her. On the other hand Trump will go anywhere even if he knows he won't get a warm welcome.

 

[progressive hunter]

Do you believe in the political polls, even after they have been wrong on the outcome of elections more often than not in recent years?

they are like watching the weather reports,,

you can use them as a general guide to whats about to happen but that doesnt mean thats what will happen,,

 

[Fang]

The campaigns have the internal polling numbers. You can almost tell what's going on by watching where the candidates campaign, which candidate wants to debate, which candidate is flip-flopping more and which candidate is adding insane new policy. For example, Kamala knows she's in trouble in Arizona over the border which is why she's suddenly taking a trip there.

 

[Muhammed]

no

OK

Could you elaborate?