Harris may lose the popular vote.

[Missourian]

Kamala Harris has dropped below +1 in national aggregate polling.

Www.realclearpolling.com

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And, President Trump is at +3 in the poll that was most accurate in 2020...

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In 2016, Trump overperformed aggregate polling by +1.1

2016 General Election Polls: Trump vs. Clinton | RealClearPolling

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In 2020, President Trump overperformed aggregate polling by +2.7

2020 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling

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If President Trump's current actual support similarly overperforms the polling, it is possible he could win the popular vote as well.

Sure, we do not elect president by popular vote, but silencing that liberal talking point would be extremely satisfying.

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[JoeB131]

RCP is such a right wing farce these days you really can't believe anything they say.

The only way you get to their polling averages is by including utter garbage polling like Rasmussen.

 

[Anathema]

I think Harris will win the popular vote fairly easily. The question is whether or not she can get the votes necessary in the places necessary to win the Electoral College.

 

[kyzr]

STOP WITH THE ANNOYING LARGE PHOTOS OP

 

[boevans]

Harris can lose the popular vote but win the electoral.

 

[IM2]

If Trump wins we are a nation of fools. This is not 2016 and it is not 2020.

 

[Missourian]

I think Harris will win the popular vote fairly easily.

I'm not so sure about that.

In 2016, Clinton was polling at +3.2 but on election day only led in actual vote tallies by +2.1 (see link in post #1)

That translated in actual vote to a lead of 2.8m votes.

So let's say +1 = 1.3m voted.

Harris at +0.9 at best, +1.1m votes.

Factor in Trump's historical over performance at the low end of +1.1... Trump wins the popular vote by 0.3m votes.

2016 United States presidential election - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

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Sure, this is speculative, but it does have a foundation in historical polling.

And to be honest, I didn't expect to even be considering the possibility that the popular vote would be in play...

 

[JoeB131]

If Trump wins we are a nation of fools. This is not 2016 and it is not 2020.

I agree, it would be horrible if Trump wins. Especially given his clear cognitive decline.


But Democrats did this to themselves. Biden should have stated he wasn't running early, and let the process play out to select a nominee.

Instead, the Democrats are running someone that they've barely noticed for the last four years. I'll give Harris credit for running a campaign as well as she has, but it might not be enough.

 

[JoeB131]

I'm not so sure about that.

In 2016, Clinton was polling at +3.2 but on election day only led in actual vote tallies by +2.1 (see link in post #1)

Hillary got hit with an October Surprise that falsely implied she did something wrong with her emails.

Now, we may still get an October surprise that will upend the race, but I suspect that the dynamics are the dynamics, with Harris winning the popular vote and the EC being on a knife's edge.

Which given how utterly unfit for office Trump is, is kind of scary.

 

[Missourian]

Harris can lose the popular vote but win the electoral.

That is true.

Wouldn't that be ironic?

Another Democrat policy that comes back to bite them in the ass.

At least you'd catch this early, before it absolutely fucked ya.

Suddenly the Electoral College would be the best thing since sliced bread and that whole Interstate Popular Vote Compact would self destruct.

Democrats seem to never be right about anything.

Early voting, another Democrat policy decision is now robbing them off the three weeks they need to turn this disaster around.

Getting rid of the filibuster for court appointments cost them a more moderate Supreme Court.

Do you guys ever get tired of yelling CHARGE and then immediately shooting yourselves in the foot?

Maybe it's time for a change.

Instead of just regurgitating whatever flavor of the month policy gains a little traction...perhaps weigh the future ramifications to those policies for 5 seconds before adopting them as your own.

 

[crossbody]

Kamala has not had the popular vote since Trump spoke about the Kamala Hatians eating the cats and the dogs. That's also when SNL turned against her.

 

[DonGlock26]

Kamala Harris has dropped below +1 in national aggregate polling.

View attachment 1028789
Www.realclearpolling.com

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And, President Trump is at +3 in the poll that was most accurate in 2020...

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In 2016, Trump overperformed aggregate polling by +1.1

View attachment 1028792

2016 General Election Polls: Trump vs. Clinton | RealClearPolling

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In 2020, President Trump overperformed aggregate polling by +2.7

View attachment 1028793

2020 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling

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If President Trump's current actual support similarly overperforms the polling, it is possible he could win the popular vote as well.

Sure, we do not elect president by popular vote, but silencing that liberal talking point would be extremely satisfying.

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Suddenly, Democrats will hate Democracy.

 

[DonGlock26]

Kamala has not had the popular vote since Trump spoke about the Kamala Hatians eating the cats and the dogs. That's also when SNL turned against her.

Kamala lost when Springfield, OH made the news.

 

[Missourian]

STOP WITH THE ANNOYING LARGE PHOTOS OP

They aren't large on mobile.

I have no control over their size.

 

[climate chang]

Kamala Harris has dropped below +1 in national aggregate polling.

View attachment 1028789
Www.realclearpolling.com

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And, President Trump is at +3 in the poll that was most accurate in 2020...

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In 2016, Trump overperformed aggregate polling by +1.1

View attachment 1028792

2016 General Election Polls: Trump vs. Clinton | RealClearPolling

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In 2020, President Trump overperformed aggregate polling by +2.7

View attachment 1028793

2020 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling

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If President Trump's current actual support similarly overperforms the polling, it is possible he could win the popular vote as well.

Sure, we do not elect president by popular vote, but silencing that liberal talking point would be extremely satisfying.

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She won't win. Unless they cheat. Which they have done.

 

[Missourian]

STOP WITH THE ANNOYING LARGE PHOTOS OP

Sorry man, I double checked, I can't change their size.



I crop them on my phone and upload them using USMB attachment function.

Here's what they look like to me...

 

[Missourian]

RCP is such a right wing farce these days you really can't believe anything they say.

The only way you get to their polling averages is by including utter garbage polling like Rasmussen.

Yet Trump overperformed their average in 2016 and 2020.

That's the point of comparing their average to the actual vote tallies.

How did that happen if their average skews right?

Please explain.

 

[Missourian]

But Democrats did this to themselves. Biden should have stated he wasn't running early, and let the process play out to select a nominee.

They lied to you, My Dude.

Straight to your face.

Because they don't trust you to pick a nominee.

RFK Jr could have won... or some other un-ordained candidate... then it would be anti- establishment Democrat vs anti- establishment Republican.

The establishment couldn't let that happen...so they lied through their teeth to maintain control.

Right up until they could no longer maintain the charade...as it became obvious Biden would be slaughtered in the election and they would lose control anyway.

Then chuck Joe Biden away (C'mon Man) and install an establishment candidate and hope the the power of the biased legacy media would be enough to sustain her.

But that card has lost most of its power... thanks to democrats abusing or trust with perpetual biased propaganda...

Americans' Trust in Media Remains at Trend Low

Americans' confidence in the media is at its lowest point, as Democrats' confidence is near the record low and Republicans' is almost nonexistent.

news.gallup.com

 

[Auld Phart]

If Trump wins we are a nation of fools. This is not 2016 and it is not 2020.

just having Trump and Harris as candidates proves we are a nation of fools

 

[JoeB131]

They lied to you, My Dude.

Straight to your face.

Because they don't trust you to pick a nominee.

RFK Jr could have won... or some other un-ordained candidate... then it would be anti- establishment Democrat vs anti- establishment Republican.

RFK was never going to win. You are delusional.

The problem is, that if an incumbent president wants the nomination, he's going to get it.