Operation Iron Swords (מבצע חרבות ברזל)

[Bleipriester]

All of our experience tells us that this ceasefire will just lead to another larger war, just as they always have. No lasting peace between Israel and Lebanon is possible unless Hezbollah is disarmed; that's why this ceasefire has come much too soon, but that doddering old imbecile, Biden, wants his biography to read that he brought peace to the ME before he is removed forever from relevance in this world.

Man, that Biden stuff is out of place. Hezbollah gives a shit about the US government. They agreed to the ceasefire because they are finished.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Man, that Biden stuff is out of place. Hezbollah gives a shit about the US government. They agreed to the ceasefire because they are finished.

Hezbollah agreed to the same ceasefire in 2006 (UNSC resolution 1701) but after Israel withdrew Hezbollah never withdrew its forces from southern Lebanon and neither the UN nor the Lebanese Army made any effort to force it to comply.

Israel would not have agreed to this ceasefire but for Biden's threats to vote for a UN resolution demanding the unconditional withdrawal, noting that Biden would be gone in two months and a friendlier US government would replace him.

 

[Bleipriester]

Hezbollah agreed to the same ceasefire in 2006 (UNSC resolution 1701) but after Israel withdrew Hezbollah never withdrew its forces from southern Lebanon and neither the UN nor the Lebanese Army made any effort to force it to comply.

Israel would not have agreed to this ceasefire but for Biden's threats to vote for a UN resolution demanding the unconditional withdrawal, noting that Biden would be gone in two months and a friendlier US government would replace him.

Its even Israel´s conditions. If Hezbollah doesn´t adhere, Israel will strike again. I don´t know where is your problem.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Its even Israel´s conditions. If Hezbollah doesn´t adhere, Israel will strike again. I don´t know where is your problem.

None of this is Israel's condition. Israel was opposed to a ceasefire in Lebanon and still is but yielded to Biden's demands because, as Netanyahu said, a friendlier US government will take office in two months.

 

[Bleipriester]

None of this is Israel's condition. Israel was opposed to a ceasefire in Lebanon and still is but yielded to Biden's demands because, as Netanyahu said, a friendlier US government will take office in two months.

I posted a link, you didn´t read. Again, it was Netanyahu´s condition that Hezbollah must go north of the Litani river.

LINK

I now know what is up with you. If that same deal would have been brokered by a republican government, you would applaud it headlining TRUMP ENDS WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST. You would ejaculate on your keyboard.

But this thread is about Israel and the war.

 

[toomuchtime_]

I posted a link, you didn´t read. Again, it was Netanyahu´s condition that Hezbollah must go north of the Litani river.

LINK

I now know what is up with you. If that same deal would have been brokered by a republican government, you would applaud it headlining TRUMP ENDS WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST. You would ejaculate on your keyboard.

But this thread is about Israel and the war.

No sensible person would believe this ceasefire will accomplish anything but give Hezbollah time to rearm and rebuild before attacking Israel again. This ceasefire is the same as the 2006 ceasefire, which was supported by a Republican President, and it will fail for the same reason it failed in 2006: when Hezbollah decides to return to southern Lebanon to prepare for its next attack on Israel, there will be no one to stop them. Israel wanted as a condition of agreeing to the ceasefire the right to take action to prevent Hezbollah from returning to southern Lebanon, but Biden only agreed Israel could take action only after Hezbollah attacked Israel again.

Clearly this ceasefire is a plan that was designed to fail.

 

[Bleipriester]

No sensible person would believe this ceasefire will accomplish anything but give Hezbollah time to rearm and rebuild before attacking Israel again. This ceasefire is the same as the 2006 ceasefire, which was supported by a Republican President, and it will fail for the same reason it failed in 2006: when Hezbollah decides to return to southern Lebanon to prepare for its next attack on Israel, there will be no one to stop them. Israel wanted as a condition of agreeing to the ceasefire the right to take action to prevent Hezbollah from returning to southern Lebanon, but Biden only agreed Israel could take action only after Hezbollah attacked Israel again.

Clearly this ceasefire is a plan that was designed to fail.

Israel was clear about this. A load of arms is enough.

 

[Bleipriester]

Hamas came up with another impossible "deal".

Hamas releases official statement saying it is interested in a deal

In an official statement issued by Hamas, the terrorist organization states that it is interested in advancing efforts to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and a "genuine and complete" deal to exchange hostages for terorrists.

www.israelnationalnews.com

 

[Bleipriester]

The deal is slowly taking shape but whether it will be implemented remains to be seen as there are things Israel and Hamas still don´t agree to.

Hamas passes Israel list of terrorists to be freed in prisoner swap deal

Israel presents Hamas with a list of 34 hostages to be released in the first stage of a deal, 'including 11 who do not meet the criteria. Hamas agreed - in exchange for special compensation.'

www.israelnationalnews.com

 

[toomuchtime_]

The deal is slowly taking shape but whether it will be implemented remains to be seen as there are things Israel and Hamas still don´t agree to.

Hamas passes Israel list of terrorists to be freed in prisoner swap deal

Israel presents Hamas with a list of 34 hostages to be released in the first stage of a deal, 'including 11 who do not meet the criteria. Hamas agreed - in exchange for special compensation.'

www.israelnationalnews.com

I don't think there is any possibility a deal will be reached, not because of any failure to reach compromises on the details but because Hamas will insist the deal includes Israel withdrawing from Gaza and leaving them in power and Israel's refusal to leave Hamas and the other terrorists in control. Israel will agree to nothing more than a temporary ceasefire to facilitate the exchange of prisoners.

 

[Bleipriester]

Mahmoud Abbas turned against Hamas.

"Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah party issued a rare statement on Saturday vowing not to “allow Hamas, which sacrificed the interests of the Palestinian people for Iran and caused destruction in the Gaza Strip, to replicate its actions in the West Bank.”

The statement came as Fatah seeks to rally public opinion in support of its ongoing security operation in the Jenin refugee camp targeting Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other armed terror groups that have gradually gained prominence in the northern West Bank.

The statement notably called out not just Hamas — which attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, starting an ongoing multifront war with Iranian-backed forces — but also Tehran itself, which Fatah accused of bankrolling the various armed groups throughout the West Bank, particularly the so-called Jenin Brigade."

MSN

 

[Bleipriester]

Trump´s hell might break loose soon as the deal threatens to collapse.

"Hamas on Wednesday morning told Arabic media that Israel added new demands in negotiations for a ceasefire-prisoner swap deal, preventing the deal from moving forward.

A diplomatic source rejected these claims, saying, "Hamas is bringing a false claim that Israel added new conditions in negotiations - in order to avoid carrying out the deal.""

Diplomatic source: Hamas falsely claiming Israel added conditions for ceasefire deal

Israel demanding right to veto release of certain terrorists, IDF presence within Rafah, report says.

www.israelnationalnews.com

 

[Bleipriester]

This time, Netanyahu´s government is at risk.

"Religious Zionism: "Alongside the yearning for the return of all our abductees, the Religious Zionist faction strongly opposes the deal. The faction stands behind the demands of the party's chairman, Minister Bezalel Smotrich, from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to ensure Israel's return to the war to destroy Hamas and the return of all the abductees, while changing the perception of victory and victory, immediately after the end of the first stage of the deal, as a condition for the party to remain in the government and in the coalition.""

הציונות הדתית: "מתנגדים לעסקה בכל תוקף - דורשים את החזרה למלחמה כתנאי להישארות בממשלה"

www.maariv.co.il

So, there is now some 42 day ceasefire used to exchange prisoners. If Religious Zionism then leaves the coalition, the government loses the majority.

 

[toomuchtime_]

This time, Netanyahu´s government is at risk.

"Religious Zionism: "Alongside the yearning for the return of all our abductees, the Religious Zionist faction strongly opposes the deal. The faction stands behind the demands of the party's chairman, Minister Bezalel Smotrich, from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to ensure Israel's return to the war to destroy Hamas and the return of all the abductees, while changing the perception of victory and victory, immediately after the end of the first stage of the deal, as a condition for the party to remain in the government and in the coalition.""

הציונות הדתית: "מתנגדים לעסקה בכל תוקף - דורשים את החזרה למלחמה כתנאי להישארות בממשלה"

www.maariv.co.il

So, there is now some 42 day ceasefire used to exchange prisoners. If Religious Zionism then leaves the coalition, the government loses the majority.

So if there is a 42 day ceasefire, as I understand it, the hostages will be released slowly over 42 days and talks on phase two of the ceasefire begin on day 16. If Israel seems unwilling to negotiate phase 2, it is likely Hamas will stop the release of hostages, so it is not clear phase 1 will succeed if Netanyahu promises to Smotrich the war will resume in 42 days.

 

[Bleipriester]

So if there is a 42 day ceasefire, as I understand it, the hostages will be released slowly over 42 days and talks on phase two of the ceasefire begin on day 16. If Israel seems unwilling to negotiate phase 2, it is likely Hamas will stop the release of hostages, so it is not clear phase 1 will succeed if Netanyahu promises to Smotrich the war will resume in 42 days.

If he does, then not publicly, I guess. But he can also get some opposition parties to support him with the deal.

 

[toomuchtime_]

If he does, then not publicly, I guess. But he can also get some opposition parties to support him with the deal.

It would destroy his government and the next right wing coalition would be even further to the right. The issue has to be dealt with now.

 

[Bleipriester]

It would destroy his government and the next right wing coalition would be even further to the right. The issue has to be dealt with now.

I agree in general. There is no point in withdrawing and waiting for the next round of hostilities. But the international pressure is also an issue.

 

[toomuchtime_]

I agree in general. There is no point in withdrawing and waiting for the next round of hostilities. But the international pressure is also an issue.

The only international pressure that matters is from the US and I believe once the two American hostages are released, that pressure will diminish.

 

[Bleipriester]

Trump wants to relocate Gazans to Jordan and Egypt.

Trump will Umsiedlungen der Gaza-Bewohner in arabische Länder

Der Gaza-Streifen ist zu großen Teilen zerstört: US-Präsident Trump will, dass die Bewohner in arabische Länder gebracht werden.

www.zdf.de

 

[Lisa558]

Trump wants to relocate Gazans to Jordan and Egypt.

Trump will Umsiedlungen der Gaza-Bewohner in arabische Länder

Der Gaza-Streifen ist zu großen Teilen zerstört: US-Präsident Trump will, dass die Bewohner in arabische Länder gebracht werden.

www.zdf.de

That makes sense.