So far this January is shaping up to be the 5th coldest one on record... Or close to it

[justoffal]

Now the debate here is whether or not that's because the polar vortex has loosened up and spread south due to warming. But that might might not actually hold water.

The real question is can we continue to have record lows and still claim that we are warming?

Jo

 

[1srelluc]

You are confusing the green weenies.

 

[JoeMoma]

To determine whether we are experiencing global warming we have to consider the temperatures of the entire Earth together and not just North America.

That said, historically (and pre-historically) humans have prospered must more under warm Earth conditions than under Cold Earth Conditions.

 

[rightwinger]

We had a record warm December
Now, January is making up for it

 

[1srelluc]

That said, historically (and pre-historically) humans have prospered must more under warm Earth conditions than under Cold Earth Conditions.

I noticed one thing.....Since it's been so cold the housefraus are tooling about town in the way a lot less.

 

[ReinyDays]

Now the debate here is whether or not that's because the polar vortex has loosened up and spread south due to warming. But that might might not actually hold water.

The real question is can we continue to have record lows and still claim that we are warming?

Jo

Of course ... that's how statistics works ...

Consider a classroom full of 5th Graders ... the tallest is 5'6" tall ... does that mean it's physically impossible for any 5th Grader to be over 5'6" tall? ... of course not ... even if the tallest was 6'10" ... just wait long enough, search more classrooms, and someday we'll find a 5th Grader taller than 6'10" ...

The problem is in the question you ask ... about "record" statistics ... records are meant to be broken ... both in sports and science ... more important for weather, and actuaries, is probabilities ...

We have roughly 6,000 official weather stations around the world ... that means there's 60 "100-year" events today ... the same as a "one-in-a-million" chance happens 20 times a day in Los Angeles ...

<nitpick> It's a Rossby wave, not the polar vortex </nitpick>

Rossby wave - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[jbrownson0831]

You are confusing the green weenies.

Cold is hot, and hot is cold.....

 

[DGS49]

I don't think any cold weather or snow records are being set here in Western Pennsylvania, but it has been a long time since we have had consistently cold temperatures for such a long time. I don't think the temp has exceeded 50 degrees in at least a month. That's the temp where I will ride my bike outside. Of course the Fall of 2024 was abnormally warm.

 

[1srelluc]

I don't think any cold weather or snow records are being set here in Western Pennsylvania, but it has been a long time since we have had consistently cold temperatures for such a long time. I don't think the temp has exceeded 50 degrees in at least a month. That's the temp where I will ride my bike outside. Of course the Fall of 2024 was abnormally warm.

Next week looks right cold too....Lows here are expected to be 2 degrees on Monday night, 0 the next night, and 8 the night after that.....Not really all that unusual for the Shenandoah Valley in mid-January.

It will hit like that then warm-up into the 30s and 40s for daily highs....Nights in the 20s.

I know one thing, the Shenandoah River looked awful cold with an ice pack forming.

Then the thaw will come and "Virginia mud" will hold sway.....Same as every year. That's why the armies went into winter quarters here during the CW and did not hardly move till the mud dried up.

 

[Darkwind]

The Susquehanna River is showing signs of forming an ice pack for the first time in about 6 years.

In the not so distant past, the planet was much warmer than it is now. We need a warmer planet to thrive.

 

[justoffal]

Of course ... that's how statistics works ...

Consider a classroom full of 5th Graders ... the tallest is 5'6" tall ... does that mean it's physically impossible for any 5th Grader to be over 5'6" tall? ... of course not ... even if the tallest was 6'10" ... just wait long enough, search more classrooms, and someday we'll find a 5th Grader taller than 6'10" ...

The problem is in the question you ask ... about "record" statistics ... records are meant to be broken ... both in sports and science ... more important for weather, and actuaries, is probabilities ...

We have roughly 6,000 official weather stations around the world ... that means there's 60 "100-year" events today ... the same as a "one-in-a-million" chance happens 20 times a day in Los Angeles ...

<nitpick> It's a Rossby wave, not the polar vortex </nitpick>

Rossby wave - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Indeed....

I quibble however that statistics are also cumulative and that long term trends can be identified. I mean isn't that how global warming became a thing?

So you're position is that this is a fluid mechanics event as opposed to the now popular theorem that the polar vortex has expanded due to increased enthalpy?

 

[EvilCat Breath]

Global warming has been proven a hoax over and over.

 

[justoffal]

To determine whether we are experiencing global warming we have to consider the temperatures of the entire Earth together and not just North America.

That said, historically (and pre-historically) humans have prospered must more under warm Earth conditions than under Cold Earth Conditions.

Good point. If the several hundred million acres of good farming land was suddenly available from underneath the ice pack would that be better for us or worse for us?

 

[Oddball]

Cold and dry....Another mediocre-to-crappy ski season.

 

[Blaster]

Winters are cold and Summers are warm. Even a child knows this.

 

[ReinyDays]

Indeed....

I quibble however that statistics are also cumulative and that long term trends can be identified. I mean isn't that how global warming became a thing?

Today, we're 1ºC over the 20th Century average ... global warming ... so what? ... why should we care, this is a trivial amount and it's not expected to increase more than another ... single ... degree ... (c.f. IPCC AR5 1WC Fig 12-5 and associated text) ...

Hysteria for Hysteria's sake ...

So you're position is that this is a fluid mechanics event as opposed to the now popular theorem that the polar vortex has expanded due to increased enthalpy?

The atmosphere is a fluid ... it behaves as a fluid ... we apply N/S at all times and in all places ... including the stratospheric polar vortex ... that's everybody's position ... why would you work with each individual molecule? ...

Maybe you have a link to this new theorem? ... sounds like the same mistake ... the amount of enthalpy is immaterial to weather ... we only care about changing enthalpy, which requires power ... no power produces powerless weather ... we tend to only care about powerful events, lots and lots of changing enthalpy ...

An expanded polar vortex means more moderate weather, and lower amplitude Rossby waves ... the opposite of what we're seeing ... sounds like this new theory is the opposite of established science ... but I'll read your link ...

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Now the debate here is whether or not that's because the polar vortex has loosened up and spread south due to warming. But that might might not actually hold water.

The real question is can we continue to have record lows and still claim that we are warming?

Jo

The AGWCult responds

…because of Climate Change you science hating fool of a Denier!

Make a copy of this chart for future reference

EVENT. BLAMED ON
Warmer…Global warming
Cooler…,Climate Change
Earthquake…Climate change
Any weather story or disaster…climate change

 

[ReinyDays]

The AGWCult responds

…because of Climate Change you science hating fool of a Denier!

Make a copy of this chart for future reference

EVENT. BLAMED ON
Warmer…Global warming
Cooler…,Climate Change
Earthquake…Climate change
Any weather story or disaster…climate change

... you forgot menstrual cramps ...

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Today, we're 1ºC over the 20th Century average ... global warming ... so what? ... why should we care, this is a trivial amount and it's not expected to increase more than another ... single ... degree ... (c.f. IPCC AR5 1WC Fig 12-5 and associated text) ...

Hysteria for Hysteria's sake ...



The atmosphere is a fluid ... it behaves as a fluid ... we apply N/S at all times and in all places ... including the stratospheric polar vortex ... that's everybody's position ... why would you work with each individual molecule? ...

Maybe you have a link to this new theorem? ... sounds like the same mistake ... the amount of enthalpy is immaterial to weather ... we only care about changing enthalpy, which requires power ... no power produces powerless weather ... we tend to only care about powerful events, lots and lots of changing enthalpy ...

An expanded polar vortex means more moderate weather, and lower amplitude Rossby waves ... the opposite of what we're seeing ... sounds like this new theory is the opposite of established science ... but I'll read your link ...

it’s crazy that the AGWCult wants us to $78 Trillion on a 1C accounting fiction

 

[toobfreak]

this January is shaping up to be the 5th coldest one on record...​

If we spend trillions of dollars, in a few decades, we might be able to raise our temperatures by 1°F. Just sayin'.