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China and India alone are over a 1/4 of the world popluation. Again plenty of markets to sell to, and we in the west don't buy Russian shit anyway. And a lot more markets than China and India are open to the Russians.
All these assumptions are predicated on the idea that Russians can't handle living without modern western products. Which is not true, they will not react the we would react to such a standard of living loss. They will do as Putin says, rebuild domestically in a more mercantilist system.
The war will continue until they win. They own the escalation ladder. We will not do anything to change that. And the Ukrainians do not have the strength.
Same reason we got the advantage in the cuban missile crisis. We will torch the planet over Cuba, the soviets weren't crazy enough to risk it over Cuba. Just liek we aren't over Ukraine.
If we wanted to defend Ukraine we would have put them in NATO in 04 when the Russians were still weak enough to do this to. We are not going to sanction of all people Russians into the ground.
Bruh they're Russians, they're the definition of second worldOnce again, you’re just not thinking. You should take a step back from Putin is awesome and think for a minute.
Taking the route of the Mercantilist system, while ignoring the Sanctions in place, and the limits that places on your economic opportunity, essentially relegates Russia to a Second World Nation status. No longer first power, and worse, it guarantees that Russia will stay there long after Putin dies of extreme old age. Putin is currently 70, and you can’t reasonably expect him to rule indefinitely. Let’s say he lives and rules another decade, that is a decade in which Russia is relegated to second world status.
You flaunt the argument that the sanctions are harming him, and we know they are, he’s already complained about them. But lets go with your idea that China and India will do trade and that’s a lot of people. Ok, other than Oil what does Russia make that China doesn’t have? Grains, like Wheat. Sure. But is that it? Then what can Russia do with the pay? Using Chinese Currency for the sale of Oil and Wheat, at substantially reduced prices compared to the World Market, means all Russia can do is buy Chinese. Or maybe Indian manufactured products.
It doesn’t help them in the long run. Again, it leaves Russia struggling to maintain second world power status.
What caused the fall of the Soviet System? Economics. They simply couldn’t afford everything they needed. But when the wall fell Russia moved up to first world nation status in less than a decade. They were selling Rocket Engines to the West. Engines superior to anything the West made. Including us. They were selling things like the NVG’s I bought. Not as good as the current state of the art, but solid, dependable, and usable.
There are a lot of Russian products like that. Not as sophisticated, but much cheaper, and it works well enough. The Lada autos as one glaring example. By comparison with any car made pretty much anywhere else, the Lada is clunky and unsophisticated. But it is reliable, if slow, and uncomfortable.
But instead of spreading out to other markets, Russia through the Sanctions insures that their only business dealings are going to be with China and India, for now. I say for now, because India uses a lot of Russian built military hardware, but with that hardware being shown as substandard there is a good chance they’ll be looking elsewhere, perhaps to Israel.
China. What does Russia have to offer China? Not much. And China has the cash to spend because of their trade deficit. But China is also wise enough to get plenty of concessions.
I mentioned airplanes earlier. The Sukhoi Superjet.
Sukhoi Superjet 100 - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
It has been gaining market share. It is able to compete, fairly well, with similar jets from Embrarer and Bombardier. It hasn’t had a lot of accidents since gaining airworthiness ratings. I think three, which isn’t bad at all. One was while the plane was out demonstrating, and the pilots ignored the computer warnings.
My point is that they were gaining market share. That market share is going to dwindle to nothing soon. But even that plane is not totally Russian, it depends on components from people who are not not trading with Russia. Can they manufacture the components? Yes. But it won’t do them any good, as they can’t export the plane to anyone. And anyone with the plane can’t fly it internationally.
Nobody is going to buy a plane that they can’t use. And which they can’t maintain.
The Russians were gaining market share in several categories. Until about a month ago, when Putin proved that Biden and the West were right, and he was a liar, and invaded.
The Russians are seen as Barbarians now. Nekulturny if you prefer. They are seen as untrustworthy, liars who can’t be depended upon. A Mercantile economy depends on trade, a trade surplus, which Russia can’t get.
Instead, they’re going to become a vassal of China. And that is hilarious to me. Sixty years ago Russia saw China as the students of Marxism and now the Russians are begging China for help.
Russia can’t compete internationally in sports. So Athletes can’t show how good they are. Russia can’t trade, and when Putin goes flying around for a meeting, he can’t arrive in an Aeroflot aircraft like he used to, they’re unsafe to fly through foreign airspace. I wonder if he’ll fly in via China Airlines or Delta?
Either way, Russia has been humiliated, and the pain will only get worse. Because they need international trade. You think they don’t, but they do. Without free and open markets, they can only sell to whoever will buy, at whatever price the buyer is willing to pay.
Let’s put it this way. If Oil is going for $55 a barrel. Or a dollar a gallon. Do you really think China will pay that to Russia? They’ll pay $40, or less, per barrel. And Russia can’t say no, because there aren’t any other customers. And if you think China and India are too unsophisticated to figure that out, you’re an idiot.
Russia is going to be working in the Black Market for all intents and purposes, and selling something their customers can get anywhere else, no problem.
ivan i am not your bro, traitor
Bruh they're Russians, they're the definition of second world
This is a you problem. Holy shit lol
You think cuz they're white they're first world? What is with American whites not understanding white dominance ends east of the Germans. Everything east of that is a world backwater that no one cares about. No population. No industry. No history of importance on the world stage.
Fucking Poland is still second world and it's totally assimilated into the west
The problem is, that nobody can decrease energy consumption and increase energy-dependent military production and increase necessary for a big war state reserves simultaneously. Less oil we are burning - less weapon we are producing. Less oil we have in our reserves - less we prepared for a large-scale war.You really are not thinking this through. Let’s begin shall we?
Russia has a finite number of Customers. Frankly it is basically China, and India who are willing to buy the oil. So like everything else, it is supply and demand. Only the demand is less now. So be honest, do you really think China and India are going to pay Market Price for Oil from Russia?
Also, gas prices are dropping. They’ve dropped over a dollar in the last couple weeks. So the effect on the world for Oil is already mitigated.
China is buying more Oil from Russia, and that means the oil they were buying from others, is being bought by the rest of the world. Again, supply and demand.
And there has been a substantive effect on a Policy Level. Putin has guaranteed that the Russian Airlines are finished. Let me explain.
When he nationalized the leased aircraft, he insured that nobody will lease an airplane to any Russian Airline for decades. Nobody will be willing to risk the money.
So even if the Sanctions dropped today, the Russian Airlines would have to buy every aircraft they wanted. But they can’t buy them. They can’t get parts for the ones they already have. So again, Putin decided to change the regulations on Airplane inspections, and maintenance. What that means is those aircraft just lost their airworthiness certificates. You can get those back, but it’s almost cheaper to buy another plane. You would have to strip the plane to the frame, and replace nearly every component before it could fly internationally again.
That is a substantive result from the Sanctions, and Putin’s policies. The Russian Airlines are basically through. No one will sell them a plane, no one will lease one to them even when the Sanctions are lifted, if they are, and what does that leave?
The International Space Station. If anything, this speeds up the efforts of the various private contractors to get their systems ready. Especially since we can’t pay Russia for their rockets anymore, thanks to the shutdown of the SWIFT Banking system.
Russia has only begun the long collapse into third world status. The few things they did produce, will be replaced by other companies within six months. One example, again with Aviation. Titanium cores for Jet Engines. Russia has a lot of experience in working with Titanium. But there are other companies, that are even now retooling and setting up to produce the components that used to be built in Russia. Those companies will be up and producing in about six months. So when the Sanctions are lifted, the facilities in Russia will have to operate at a loss for years to compete. More damage to the economy. Assuming anyone wants to buy from a Russian Company, which they would prefer to avoid.
For the rest of the world, there will be delays of a couple months on new jet engines, but that delay won’t last long, as other companies start to produce the handful of components, mostly based in Titanium, that Russia made.
Again, I doubt Russia will recover this decade.
So with China and India getting the oil cheaper than on the international open market, Russia’s income will be slashed. Russian Aviation is finished. They’ll never recover. Russian manufacturing is crippled, and will likely never recover.
The economy is already headed for full Depression, and all thanks to Putin’s blind ambition.
why is your ivan brothers stay in the line in order to move in in Poland ?Poland is still second world