OohPooPahDoo
Gold Member
- May 11, 2011
- 15,347
- 985
There is a myth perpetuated in the world of finance that over long periods, the stock market will always net positive returns - some better than others - but it will always at least beat U.S. Treasuries.
This myth is based on the past performance of the U.S. stock market alone. Using on U.S. data creates quite a selection bias, as there is no fundamental reason to believe the future of the U.S. markets could not possibly look like the past markets of nations other than the U.S.
To give an example - look at the Japanese stock market over the past ~25 years. The Nikkei 225 has not even recovered to HALF of what it was before the crash.
This myth is based on the past performance of the U.S. stock market alone. Using on U.S. data creates quite a selection bias, as there is no fundamental reason to believe the future of the U.S. markets could not possibly look like the past markets of nations other than the U.S.
To give an example - look at the Japanese stock market over the past ~25 years. The Nikkei 225 has not even recovered to HALF of what it was before the crash.