Will the CV Phenomenon Kill the Cruise Industry?

[DGS49]

I have heard some cruise fans (including my wife) say disturbing things about cruises over the past couple weeks. They might not ever feel comfortable taking a cruise again - they consider that the larger the ship the more threatened they will feel. And on a river boat, with a couple hundred people living in close proximity, for 10-14 days, it seems like virtually everybody on the cruise could be infected - though not necessarily sickened.

And on a large ocean cruise ship, if even a single person is infected, there could be thousands of people who become, in effect, Ground Zero.

Until there is a readily and universally-available vaccine, and the cruise lines demand that every passenger be vaccinated, I think they will all be greatly affected.

Furthermore, their financial model seems to demand that people pay well in advance, and I suspect NOBODY will book a cruise for another 4 months, at least. So they will have at least half a year with NET NEGATIVE cash flow, considering refunded cancellations going on right now. Are they financially robust enough to withstand that storm?

Thoughts?

 

[harmonica]

maybe for a while....but not forever

 

[fncceo]

Did the Titanic?

 

[OldLady]

I have heard some cruise fans (including my wife) say disturbing things about cruises over the past couple weeks. They might not ever feel comfortable taking a cruise again - they consider that the larger the ship the more threatened they will feel. And on a river boat, with a couple hundred people living in close proximity, for 10-14 days, it seems like virtually everybody on the cruise could be infected - though not necessarily sickened.

And on a large ocean cruise ship, if even a single person is infected, there could be thousands of people who become, in effect, Ground Zero.

Until there is a readily and universally-available vaccine, and the cruise lines demand that every passenger be vaccinated, I think they will all be greatly affected.

Furthermore, their financial model seems to demand that people pay well in advance, and I suspect NOBODY will book a cruise for another 4 months, at least. So they will have at least half a year with NET NEGATIVE cash flow, considering refunded cancellations going on right now. Are they financially robust enough to withstand that storm?

Thoughts?

The government had to close down our hangouts and stores in order to get us to stay home and minimally try to stay healthy. In Florida, the beaches that are still open are crowded as always. Do you think most people are going to worry about the chance of contagion on a cruise? Cruise ships have regular episodes of sickness--intestinal viruses, and didn't one have Legionnaires Disease back in the day? People don't think about stuff like that and I imagine by September this will all be a distant memory. If people can still afford the thousands to get on the ship, they will.

 

[evenflow1969]

I have heard some cruise fans (including my wife) say disturbing things about cruises over the past couple weeks. They might not ever feel comfortable taking a cruise again - they consider that the larger the ship the more threatened they will feel. And on a river boat, with a couple hundred people living in close proximity, for 10-14 days, it seems like virtually everybody on the cruise could be infected - though not necessarily sickened.

And on a large ocean cruise ship, if even a single person is infected, there could be thousands of people who become, in effect, Ground Zero.

Until there is a readily and universally-available vaccine, and the cruise lines demand that every passenger be vaccinated, I think they will all be greatly affected.

Furthermore, their financial model seems to demand that people pay well in advance, and I suspect NOBODY will book a cruise for another 4 months, at least. So they will have at least half a year with NET NEGATIVE cash flow, considering refunded cancellations going on right now. Are they financially robust enough to withstand that storm?

Thoughts?

I hope they recover. I will have my 500+ ton intercoastal designation by the end of next year. Cruise ship captains for even the small ships make 570 per day. I am a fishing guy but a couple of years on a cruise ship is some good scratch

 

[wamose]

China's intention was to kill the free world, especially the USA. They may have used the cruise industry as an easy way to spread their poison but they weren't the actual target. In the end, if the cruise industry dies, they will just be collateral damage.

 

[Tijn Von Ingersleben]

Never have understood them. One of the best things about travel is venturing out, seeing new things, experiencing new cultures, food, happy confusion. Why would you want to get in a floating apartment building filled with all of the trappings, and people of your own country/culture?
Every time I see one it reminds me of that 70's movie Logan's Run...except much much older, and fatter.

 

[Mr Natural]

Who needs a cruise industry?

 

[DGS49]

The cruise industry is a multi-billion dollar proposition, and MOST of the money comes from people over 50 years old. Who are NOT risk-takers, as a general proposition.

Even if the direct affects go away in a couple months, will the lingering impacts remain, and will some of the cruise companies go under, due to the financial stresses of this - let's call it - 6-month crisis?

Look at NUCLEAR POWER, which has been crippled globally due to one freak set of circumstances in Japan - circumstances that could not happen anywhere in the world, outside the old Soviet Union. And yet Europe and America have abandoned Nuke.