# May or June



## william the wie (May 2, 2011)

This year will it be sell in May and walk away or will it be QE II will end in june and then the market will swoon?

I was just wondering what the opinions are out there.


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## expat_panama (May 3, 2011)

"October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February."
- Mark Twain

--and then Dave Berry warned us about the dangers of stock investing by telling us about a guy who bought some stocks and the next day he was crushed to death under a huge pile of money.

There're so many factors that my experience tells me to watch what's happening now, and I see Investor's Business Daily call current trends_ 'market in confirmed rally'._  I'm buying now, and if things change I'll sell.


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## william the wie (May 3, 2011)

expat_panama said:


> "October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February."
> - Mark Twain
> 
> --and then Dave Berry warned us about the dangers of stock investing by telling us about a guy who bought some stocks and the next day he was crushed to death under a huge pile of money.
> ...


Thanks, I suspect I trade much less than you do but I do appreciate your response.


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## expat_panama (May 4, 2011)

william the wie said:


> expat_panama said:
> 
> 
> > ...I'm buying now, and if things change I'll sell.
> ...


LOL right after I posted that things changed and I sold half my holdings!

All we know is what's been happening and we act accordingly.  It's like driving down the freeway while only looking through the rear view mirror...


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## william the wie (May 4, 2011)

I just play the odds and try to limit my downside.


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## editec (May 4, 2011)

Ah, the burdens of having capital to protect.

I don't envy you guys.


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## expat_panama (May 4, 2011)

william the wie said:


> I just play the odds and try to limit my downside.


Most people emphasis protection from losses over desire for gain but that can be a trap.  Most people prefer to risk ten bucks placing bets in a casino but I prefer putting more on the line by _owning_ the casino.   Odds favor owners.


editec said:


> Ah, the burdens of having capital to protect.  I don't envy you guys.



Ah it's tough.   Some days it takes hours to get to my desk in the morning having to dig though all the money piled on it.  I'm glad you understand what I have to put up with.

Seriously, these days you can open a brokerage account with 50 bucks.


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## william the wie (May 4, 2011)

editec said:


> Ah, the burdens of having capital to protect.
> 
> I don't envy you guys.


You must be relatively young. It has been very hard not to get relatively rich by 55-60 in the US for a very long time. The rules are simple:

Avoid divorce.

Avoid jail.

Live slightly below your means

And that is about it. You can get 18% compound returns simply by not using credit cards and double your free cashflow relative to your peers every four years regular as clockwork.


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## editec (May 4, 2011)

expat_panama said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> > I just play the odds and try to limit my downside.
> ...


 
I think you imagine that I was being insincere.

I wasn't.

People who have nothing to lose (and that's most people, ya know) really do not have to jump to action when they see changes in the market.

They have nothing to lose, ergo they have nothing to protect.

Right now most people with something to lose don't know whether to shit or go blind.


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## expat_panama (May 4, 2011)

editec said:


> People who have nothing to lose (and that's most people, ya know)...



There's where we hit a disconnect.

Words mean things.  Anyone that's got something that they'd pay a lot of money to keep, something that others without it would pay a lot of money or do a lot of work to get, then that person has _something_ and it's something really _good._

That describes everyone living in the US.  It also includes everyone who's healthy, or even alive.  Let's add anyone not in jail or not in debt, or anyone with $100 to their name.


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## william the wie (May 4, 2011)

expat_panama said:


> editec said:
> 
> 
> > People who have nothing to lose (and that's most people, ya know)...
> ...


Yeah, but often people don't realize what they have until its gone.


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## expat_panama (May 5, 2011)

william the wie said:


> ...people don't realize what they have until its gone.


Absolutely, doom'n'gloom is a natural human tendency and for that reason I make it a point every day to re-inventory all the good around me and then give thanks.

Much more 'reality oriented' than doom'n'gloom.


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## william the wie (May 5, 2011)

expat_panama said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> > ...people don't realize what they have until its gone.
> ...


 I can remember a downturn in family income when Dad was blinded in his right eye during the 58 Lebanon crisis and that was followed by older brother Pat getting rheumatic fever in 1960. I had to show up at four different jobs each week to save the babysitter costs I would have cost, didn't do much work (I was 7 when Dad took Pat to Bethesda) but did pull my weight best as I knew how. People do not realize that bad things can happen to them until they do. It is best to learn that lesson young.


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## Trajan (May 5, 2011)

william the wie said:


> editec said:
> 
> 
> > Ah, the burdens of having capital to protect.
> ...



I would add;   if you own a home, make your mortgage payments every 2 weeks as well.


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## Trajan (May 5, 2011)

expat_panama said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> > ...people don't realize what they have until its gone.
> ...



agreed, I don't think a week goes by that I don't take a look around and 'get grateful'. Its takes a bit of humility too


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## william the wie (May 5, 2011)

Sounds good to me Trajan but except for 12 years I have not dealt with mortgages in my life, I prefer to pay cash or do without.


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## Trajan (May 5, 2011)

Oh hey on topic...I told ya'll what my deep cover buddy said...when the dollar hits the June 08 low,(note I said when not IF) the shit will hit the fan,  it will be scorched earth.


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## expat_panama (May 5, 2011)

Trajan said:


> ...take a look around and 'get grateful'. Its takes a bit of humility...



Ah, you've just explained why so very many people are unhappy and ungrateful.  Thanks!


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## editec (May 5, 2011)

william the wie said:


> editec said:
> 
> 
> > Ah, the burdens of having capital to protect.
> ...


 
Good advice.

But there's many a slip twix cup and lip.

For instance you completely neglected:

don't get a serious long term illness.

...don't go into a career path that will end thanks to changes in the world that you couldn't possibly have expected.

...don't get hit by a bus, shot in driveby and a host of other events over which one seldom has control

... and on and on and on with all the possible senarios that actually happen to people that make your sage advice so sound, otherwise.

Now in my case I acept full responsibility for my economy.

But to imagine that a few simple rules will assure long term prosperity?

That my friend is known as _whistling in the dark._


Small advantages that many people have(, and that far more people do not have) early in life will certainly dramatically effect when one ends up.

How small those advantages can seem at the time, but how enormously those modest benefits can accrue over time.

Could be something as simple as getting a decent job early, leading to huge oppoprtunities in the future, or even something so small as not getting a flat tire at the wrong time, or just knowing somebody who knows somebody who knows somebody.

People who have had such minor advantages tend discount their significance.

And by doing so, they agrandize themselves by suggesting that their sucess was all a matter of their careful planning, their industry and the harships they suffered to save and whatnot.

It's as much a conceit to think that your success is entirely the result of your decisions in life, as it is to blame your failures on other people.  Voth POVs are highly overstated and people CLING to them because it helps them cope regardless of whether their fate is happy or horrid.


And those are two kinds of conceit that pretty much all of us tend to tell ourselves to some degree or the other.


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## william the wie (May 6, 2011)

Trajan said:


> Oh hey on topic...I told ya'll what my deep cover buddy said...when the dollar hits the June 08 low,(note I said when not IF) the shit will hit the fan,  it will be scorched earth.


I don't do FOREX so could you expand on that?


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## Trajan (May 6, 2011)

what happened to the market in 08  when we dropped below 71? that 13k ridge blew apart,  we dropped how many points? QE in the spring of  09 caught that, think there will be a QE3? 
Rumor has it the Bernank wants MORE inflation to help ease the  housing market collapse ( double dip?).


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## william the wie (May 6, 2011)

OK I now understand your post but is the dollar index still a dependable indicator given the growth of currencies such as the Yuan that are not part of it?


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## iamwhatiseem (May 13, 2011)

Ask any market defender (there are a few on this forum) to explain two things to you...and standby and watch them mumble and walk away.

1) "*Originate and sell*". Sounds simple and is categorically the absolute top reason why the markets went from the 3,000's to beyond 10,000 in just 10 years. And is also why the markets went from 10,000 to 14,000 in the next 3 years after that. And is also an infinite lie that every single wall street firm gleefully took advantage of while the SEC and the FED and the entire world government bodies stood by and watched it happen, and never said a word because they too were making a sizeable fortune partaking of. (and consequently is how "AAA" rated multi-$billion firms went bankrupt overnite)
2) *Shelving or bond underwriting*. Tell them to explain how it is this was done by every wall street firm (particularly Goldman Sacs) and no one went to jail, in fact several of the founders of this idea have and are advisors to the past two Presidents (yes fans Obama walks with the corrupt on a daily basis)

There - that is it.
Learn about these two things - and you will learn what the Stock Market really is - and how unholy it would be to put the SS system into it (yes Thor I thru this in for you)


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## sparky (May 14, 2011)

*1) they're all the same ex-insiders

2) the sec doesn't cover bond raters

3) if you're an investor-PUNT!*


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## editec (May 14, 2011)

I cannot see how Quantative easing is really going to do anything but create some other investment bubble.

It is still doing nothing but putting cash into the class of people who won't spend it.


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## Toro (May 14, 2011)

I hedged everything out Friday.  I don't know where the market is going so I'm stepping aside.


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## sparky (May 15, 2011)

editec said:


> I cannot see how Quantative easing is really going to do anything but create some other investment bubble.
> 
> It is still doing nothing but putting cash into the class of people who won't spend it.



while polluting the species....


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## Trajan (May 15, 2011)

to the topic, I created a QE3 thread, they are stewing the cauldron for a QE3, its starting to  bubble slowly, hoping the fumes don't overcome anyone when they institute a third round of easing.....


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## Toro (May 15, 2011)

Trajan said:


> to the topic, I created a QE3 thread, they are stewing the cauldron for a QE3, its starting to  bubble slowly, hoping the fumes don't overcome anyone when they institute a third round of easing.....



I don't think they are going to do it, at least not this year.  Leading indicators are decent, if not booming. Employment is rising, albeit slowly.


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## Trajan (May 15, 2011)

No offense Toro but you said that in January....

I mean, I hope you are right, but the corollary between employment,  consumer spending ala gdp level out at some point, we cannot stumble along at 2% or even 2.5% and get out of from under the bombs that are set to explode. They have been tinkering with the formula trying boost growth etc. for 2 years now......at some point that tab has got to be paid as the effect or actually the lack of it, starts to turn back and eat itself, and, there is an election coming.

They wont' let the housing market bottom, they keep hoping against hope that lending and employment will open up and that that  growth will spur spending driving the machine, we have been at rock bottom interest rates for how long? 

The goal is to do whatever is necessary now and not think about the future,do you think obama really cares if the damage is worse in the long run in exchange for short terms gains that would keep him in office? I don't, very few politicians of any stripe do, they think of today not tomorrow.


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## iamwhatiseem (May 15, 2011)

Trajan said:


> No offense Toro but you said that in January....
> 
> I mean, I hope you are right, but the corollary between employment,  consumer spending ala gdp level out at some point, we cannot stumble along at 2% or even 2.5% and get out of from under the bombs that are set to explode. They have been tinkering with the formula trying boost growth etc. for 2 years now......at some point that tab has got to be paid as the effect or actually the lack of it, starts to turn back and eat itself, and, there is an election coming.
> 
> ...



Exactly.
Politicians have for over 20 years financed the present by piling debt on the future - that too has to come to a head - and look out when it does.
At the same time we have a divided, disjointed, unrealistic, spoiled and unpatriotic society that does not pause for one second to consider how their consumer choices hurts their nation. Nor are they willing to go beyond complaining and start acting.
As you know, I am out of the market, and I may not go back in for a very long time if ever. I did very well in the last 3 years, and do not want to lose it all when it pops very soon.


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