# How big a Crash is Coming?



## william the wie (May 16, 2016)

This is not the usual bash of domestic politicians and even though no matter the cause US politicians will get blamed. Despite the over-leveraged blue wall and coming up on 8 years of Obama and the Fed transferring money and wealth from the bottom half to the 0.1% at the top the US economy is relatively stable compared to the rest of the world. Only that is not saying much.

Canada is experiencing one of the bigger real estate bubbles in the Western hemisphere.

China's housing, commodity and stock bubbles rank up there with the South Sea Bubble and Mississippi scheme.

Japan and the EU are playing with negative interest rates which more or less define institutionalized deflation.

The four largest economies in the world are the EU, US, China and Japan. As the other three of the big four flush themselves down the toilet we will experience serious knock on effects. How big do you think it will get.


----------



## Mac1958 (May 16, 2016)

There won't be a crash, unless a major disruption like a large terrorist attack, something unforeseen.

We still haven't had the correction we need, maybe 18% to 22%, and a good, old fashioned bear market (25% to 35% over 18 months) isn't out of the question.

Meh.  I don't sweat the temporary stuff.
.


----------



## william the wie (May 16, 2016)

I'm referring to a spillover crash like with the Arab embargo in 73.


----------



## Dale Smith (May 16, 2016)

I believe that the crash of the economy is inevitable and it will be the derivatives markets that sink it this time. They have been preparing for martial law for a mighty long time. They have been staging equiptment and quietly preparing right under our noses. I worked with someone in Detroit that had a life long friende that works in law enforcement. He said that when the call is made that people will have less than 4 hours to get in or out of the city before it will be locked down.

Americans live in a bubble and they have no clue what we were used for, how we were manipulated and they are about to discard us...purpose served.


----------



## Toddsterpatriot (May 16, 2016)

william the wie said:


> This is not the usual bash of domestic politicians and even though no matter the cause US politicians will get blamed. Despite the over-leveraged blue wall and coming up on 8 years of Obama and the Fed transferring money and wealth from the bottom half to the 0.1% at the top the US economy is relatively stable compared to the rest of the world. Only that is not saying much.
> 
> Canada is experiencing one of the bigger real estate bubbles in the Western hemisphere.
> 
> ...


*
the Fed transferring money and wealth from the bottom half to the 0.1% at the top*

Sounds awful, how is the Fed doing that?


----------



## Toddsterpatriot (May 16, 2016)

Dale Smith said:


> I believe that the crash of the economy is inevitable and it will be the derivatives markets that sink it this time. They have been preparing for martial law for a mighty long time. They have been staging equiptment and quietly preparing right under our noses. I worked with someone in Detroit that had a life long friende that works in law enforcement. He said that when the call is made that people will have less than 4 hours to get in or out of the city before it will be locked down.
> 
> Americans live in a bubble and they have no clue what we were used for, how we were manipulated and they are about to discard us...purpose served.


*
it will be the derivatives markets that sink it this time.
*
Why? Derivatives are zero sum.


----------



## william the wie (May 16, 2016)

The Brexit vote is a likely trigger.


----------



## Uncensored2008 (May 16, 2016)

william the wie said:


> This is not the usual bash of domestic politicians and even though no matter the cause US politicians will get blamed. Despite the over-leveraged blue wall and coming up on 8 years of Obama and the Fed transferring money and wealth from the bottom half to the 0.1% at the top the US economy is relatively stable compared to the rest of the world. Only that is not saying much.
> 
> Canada is experiencing one of the bigger real estate bubbles in the Western hemisphere.
> 
> ...



CDO's are back. These are again based on mortgage backed securities that are bundled with subprime loans and rated AAA. It's like 2007 all over again. Open fraud on display with no one lifting a finger to oppose it.

It is insanity.


----------



## william the wie (May 16, 2016)

Uncensored2008 said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> > This is not the usual bash of domestic politicians and even though no matter the cause US politicians will get blamed. Despite the over-leveraged blue wall and coming up on 8 years of Obama and the Fed transferring money and wealth from the bottom half to the 0.1% at the top the US economy is relatively stable compared to the rest of the world. Only that is not saying much.
> ...



That is being done mostly by Deutsche Bank, it is being done to a much lesser degree and it is a much smaller problem than high yield munis, much less the foreign problems listed above.

I'm not saying they are not a problem I am saying that unlike 2005-8 the CDS market is not a top five problem this go around.


----------



## RubberGloveSeduction (Jun 7, 2016)

A crash is always coming, and a recovery is always coming.

I'll go on record predicting both, and I'll take the easy route of giving no dates just saying "someday" over and over for years.


----------



## william the wie (Jun 8, 2016)

RubberGloveSeduction said:


> A crash is always coming, and a recovery is always coming.
> 
> I'll go on record predicting both, and I'll take the easy route of giving no dates just saying "someday" over and over for years.





RubberGloveSeduction said:


> A crash is always coming, and a recovery is always coming.
> 
> I'll go on record predicting both, and I'll take the easy route of giving no dates just saying "someday" over and over for years.



Well with utilities, WEC is the one I checked, some things popped out:

With a half century of increasing dividends WEC is the benchmark for flight to safety:

The yield is dropping towards the 10 year treasury yield, adjusting for the increasing dividend.

In the last two weeks the increase in PE has been 14%

Earnings yield exceeding dividend yield is not far off. As of last night without a major correction WEC will be borrowing to get dividend money by Sept.

This is not sustainable in even the short run.


----------



## RubberGloveSeduction (Jun 8, 2016)

Okay so define short run. This crash must be right around the corner, what timelines are you thinking?


----------



## william the wie (Jun 8, 2016)

After either the next Fed rate hike or after the election whichever comes first certainly. A huge hunk of the investing public will pull their money out of the market due to external shock:

Oil prices either reviving the fracking industry or cause more bankruptcies.

The search for higher yields will trigger a Lehman moment

Europe or China goes off the rails.

Any of these could happen prior to either of the two known triggers.


----------



## DrainBamage (Jan 16, 2017)

william the wie said:


> After either the next Fed rate hike or after the election whichever comes first certainly.


Well we've had an election and a rate hike... where is the certain crash?


----------



## william the wie (Jan 16, 2017)

DrainBamage said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> > After either the next Fed rate hike or after the election whichever comes first certainly.
> ...


 Who expected a non-sleaze like Trump to win? I figured that POS Clinton would win.


----------



## DrainBamage (Jan 16, 2017)

Wow, you really believe a career businessman who specialized in property development with much focus on Atlantic City isn't sleazy?

That's almost cute in a way.


----------



## jwoodie (Jan 24, 2017)

william the wie said:


> DrainBamage said:
> 
> 
> > william the wie said:
> ...



So what is your 2017 forecast?


----------



## Toddsterpatriot (Jan 24, 2017)

jwoodie said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> > DrainBamage said:
> ...



That several states will declare bankruptcy before the 2016 election.


----------



## xyz (Jan 24, 2017)

william the wie said:


> The Brexit vote is a likely trigger.


Seriously doubt it, that would mostly affect just the British economy, other countries to a lesser extent.


----------



## william the wie (Jan 24, 2017)

The pipeline approvals signed yesterday will lower the production break even point $10-15 barrel and cause severe instability in the oil market


----------



## william the wie (Jan 24, 2017)

xyz said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> > The Brexit vote is a likely trigger.
> ...



With May pushing for non-Europe trade deals worldwide and drill baby drill for the Gatwick field several Euro zone countries will collapse in March 2019.


----------



## xyz (Jan 24, 2017)

william the wie said:


> xyz said:
> 
> 
> > william the wie said:
> ...


What the hell does that have to do with it? Plus Britain doesn't even have the Euro. There might be a crash in some countries, but the UK won't be the main factor.


----------

