# CATERPILLAR a buy?



## usmbtech

What are you thoughts on Caterpillar, do you think its a good long term buy?


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## Valerie

DanK said:


> What are you thoughts on Caterpillar, do you think its a good long term buy?



*BUY!* 

FYI - It just got downgraded by someone today from buy to hold, but I rarely give much credence to that stuff any more.  For an example, just look at how B of A's recommendation on CAT went from hold to buy in June of 06 when it fell into the 60s and then from buy to hold in the end of 08 when it was in the 30s.  

_Sometimes_, they tell you to buy when they want you to buy their shares!  And then they tell you to sell when they want to buy your shares from you!    Or someone makes you skittish by downgrading from buy to hold, like today.  

I say, if it's worth holding then of course it's worth buying when at it's lowest price.

Also, I just read....Cramer says BUY - BUY - BUY!  

Cramer's Stop Trading! 6 Quick Earnings Picks (1/27/09) -- Seeking Alpha



> Caterpillar (CAT): In spite of a gloomy forecast, Cramer still likes Caterpillar for its 5% dividend. From a technical standpoint, *the stock is putting in a base*.



There are better "trades" out there, but I think it's a solid long term investment.


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## manu1959

well lets see.....when all the various state governments put all their road and bridges and tunnels on hold.....the wiped out the need for heavy construction equipment.....the stock tanked and caterpillar laid off a bunch of people....

now obama is abot to pass out millions to the sates to start up all those projects......

hmmmmmmmmmmm.......i wonder what will happen then....


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## Valerie

manu1959 said:


> well lets see.....when all the various state governments put all their road and bridges and tunnels on hold.....the wiped out the need for heavy construction equipment.....the stock tanked and caterpillar laid off a bunch of people....
> 
> now obama is abot to pass out millions to the sates to start up all those projects......
> 
> hmmmmmmmmmmm.......i wonder what will happen then....




Exactly, the stimulus package and the infrastructure bill will be a CATalyst!


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## jillian

manu1959 said:


> well lets see.....when all the various state governments put all their road and bridges and tunnels on hold.....the wiped out the need for heavy construction equipment.....the stock tanked and caterpillar laid off a bunch of people....
> 
> now obama is abot to pass out millions to the sates to start up all those projects......
> 
> hmmmmmmmmmmm.......i wonder what will happen then....



Yep!! BUY!! BUY!!! BUY!!!!


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## DavidS

SELL SELL SELL if you need money now! New home construction has nowhere to go but down from here since we can't fill the homes that are already built. New construction projects around the country that would require a caterpillar are plummeting. The only reason you should hold onto this company is if you don't need cash in the next 2-3 years and you want it to really rise up in value, which it will do when the economy rebounds. I would go so far to say that we may be taking such drastic action that we could face a housing shortage in less than a decade from now.


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## usmbtech

Wow, down to $31.16, can't seem to win with this one


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## Valerie

DanK said:


> Wow, down to $31.16, can't seem to win with this one



I've been keeping an eye on the volume.  Prior to the earnings announcement in January, the average daily volume was around 13 million.  That day it purged downward and broke through it's 52 week low with volume of 47 million.  In the following days it snuck below $30 per share but the volume was less than the prior breakthrough.  I see that as a good sign.  In the past few weeks the price has remained flat and the volume has died down and returned to it's normal lower level.  I think this is a bullish sign.  If you see the price start to move up and the volume stays flat, that means it's not real, it doesn't have conviction.  So, this is what I watch for when I'm deciding what to do next.  I like the way the price has help up and I'm looking for a catalyst to take it up with real volume. 

I am holding it in my retirement account so I am willing to be patient.  





> PRICES
> Date	       Open	    High	    Low	     Close	  Volume	        Adj Close*
> 12-Feb-09	30.75	31.09	30.03	31.02	13,662,000	31.02
> 11-Feb-09	31.35	31.93	30.65	31.13	10,544,900	31.13
> 10-Feb-09	32.86	33.31	30.61	30.92	17,205,600	30.92
> 9-Feb-09	33.47	33.60	32.40	32.72	9,063,700	        32.72
> 6-Feb-09	32.38	33.85	32.21	33.28	17,010,100	33.28
> 5-Feb-09	30.35	32.09	30.20	31.61	17,793,300	31.61
> 4-Feb-09	30.44	31.57	30.20	30.60	17,419,200	30.60
> 3-Feb-09	29.81	31.03	29.81	29.99	18,880,200	29.99
> 2-Feb-09	30.10	30.80	29.60	30.29	16,966,700	30.29
> 30-Jan-09	31.58	31.73	30.06	30.85	20,956,900	30.85
> 29-Jan-09	32.61	32.66	31.63	31.85	14,575,000	31.85
> 28-Jan-09	33.26	33.51	32.62	33.00	13,466,700	33.00
> 27-Jan-09	33.24	33.42	32.10	32.32	20,354,500	32.32
> *26-Jan-09	33.60	34.24	31.70	32.67	47,390,400	32.67*


CAT: Summary for CATERPILLAR INC - Yahoo! Finance


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## RodISHI

Take a look out there at how much used equipment has already flooded the market before you decide. Even the larger construction companies have been buying used equipment to finish up some leftover contract road projects that were on the books prior the crunch.


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## dilloduck

Valerie said:


> I've been keeping an eye on the volume.  Prior to the earnings announcement in January, the average daily volume was around 13 million.  That day it purged downward and broke through it's 52 week low with volume of 47 million.  In the following days it snuck below $30 per share but the volume was less than the prior breakthrough.  I see that as a good sign.  In the past few weeks the price has remained flat and the volume has died down and returned to it's normal lower level.  I think this is a bullish sign.  If you see the price start to move up and the volume stays flat, that means it's not real, it doesn't have conviction.  So, this is what I watch for when I'm deciding what to do next.  I like the way the price has help up and I'm looking for a catalyst to take it up with real volume.
> 
> I am holding it in my retirement account so I am willing to be patient.



Weird, Val----I look at women sorta the same way you look at stocks !


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## Valerie

dilloduck said:


> Valerie said:
> 
> 
> 
> I've been keeping an eye on the volume.  Prior to the earnings announcement in January, the average daily volume was around 13 million.  That day it purged downward and broke through it's 52 week low with volume of 47 million.  In the following days it snuck below $30 per share but the volume was less than the prior breakthrough.  I see that as a good sign.  In the past few weeks the price has remained flat and the volume has died down and returned to it's normal lower level.  I think this is a bullish sign.  If you see the price start to move up and the volume stays flat, that means it's not real, it doesn't have conviction.  So, this is what I watch for when I'm deciding what to do next.  I like the way the price has help up and I'm looking for a catalyst to take it up with real volume.
> 
> I am holding it in my retirement account so I am willing to be patient.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Weird, Val----I look at women sorta the same way you look at stocks !
Click to expand...


  Don't forget the dividends!  *Div & Yield:	1.68 (5.40%) *


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## dilloduck

Valerie said:


> dilloduck said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Valerie said:
> 
> 
> 
> I've been keeping an eye on the volume.  Prior to the earnings announcement in January, the average daily volume was around 13 million.  That day it purged downward and broke through it's 52 week low with volume of 47 million.  In the following days it snuck below $30 per share but the volume was less than the prior breakthrough.  I see that as a good sign.  In the past few weeks the price has remained flat and the volume has died down and returned to it's normal lower level.  I think this is a bullish sign.  If you see the price start to move up and the volume stays flat, that means it's not real, it doesn't have conviction.  So, this is what I watch for when I'm deciding what to do next.  I like the way the price has help up and I'm looking for a catalyst to take it up with real volume.
> 
> I am holding it in my retirement account so I am willing to be patient.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Weird, Val----I look at women sorta the same way you look at stocks !
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Don't forget the dividends!  *Div & Yield:	1.68 (5.40%) *
Click to expand...


How could I possibly miss something as important as the Yield and Dividends ?


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## auditor0007

One thing to keep in mind; the infrastructure spending in the stimulus bill is only $46 billion, and it's not all going to roads.  Caterpillar has already said that despite the stimulus bill, they will be laying off even more workers.  I would not say that it's a sell because it already is running fairly low and will eventually come back.  I think a hold call is in order.


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## Missourian

> After 50 years as an emblem of American trucker culture, *Caterpillar Inc has said that it will bring its North American commercial diesel engine production operations to an end in 2009*.
> 
> The world's largest maker of construction and mining equipment went on to state that it is to form an alliance with Navistar International Corp to build and sell a variety of trucks worldwide.
> 
> With new clean air restrictions, speculators believed Caterpillar would exit the on-highway business, but the alliance disproves such rumors, with the two companies planning to cooperate to develop, manufacture and distribute both medium and heavy duty commercial trucks outside of North America. <MORE>




No more CAT engines in US trucks. They could not meet EPA standards and continue to build a quality engine so they decided to produce a quality engine and take their chances distributing in non-US markets. 

Very sad...great engines.

http://www.execdigital.co.uk/Caterpillar-to-stop-diesel-engine-production_6216.aspx


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## Valerie

> CATERPILLAR INC
> (NYSE: CAT)
> 
> *Real-Time: 52.06* Up 0.86 (1.68%) 3:03PM EThelp
> Last Trade:	52.22
> Trade Time:	2:48PM ET
> Change:	Up 1.02 (1.99%)
> Prev Close:	51.20
> Open:	51.75
> Bid:	N/A
> Ask:	N/A
> 1y Target Est:	45.69
> Day's Range:	51.25 - 52.40
> 52wk Range:	21.71 - 64.20
> Volume:	4,461,031
> Avg Vol (3m):	12,880,100
> Market Cap:	32.44B
> P/E (ttm):	18.01
> EPS (ttm):	2.901
> Div & Yield:	1.68 (3.30%)



CAT: Summary for CATERPILLAR INC - Yahoo! Finance


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## DavidS

Oops!


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## Valerie

CAT hit a new 52 week high yesterday and today!  






> Caterpillar, Inc. Common Stock
> (NYSE: CAT)
> 
> Real Time: 76.15 Down 0.03 (0.04%) 3:48PM EDT
> *Last Trade:	76.35*
> Trade Time:	3:33PM EDT
> Change:	Up 0.17 (0.22%)
> Prev Close:	76.18
> Open:	75.42
> Bid:	76.35 x 200
> Ask:	76.36 x 300
> 1y Target Est:	80.80
> Day's Range:	75.00 - 77.50
> 52wk Range:	47.50 - 77.50
> Volume:	7,416,896
> Avg Vol (3m):	7,971,470
> Market Cap:	48.14B
> P/E (ttm):	31.16
> EPS (ttm):	2.46
> Div & Yield:	1.76 (2.30%)




CAT: Summary for Caterpillar, Inc. Common Stock- Yahoo! Finance


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## Valerie

Notice as the price has risen the dividend yield moved inversely...from 5.4% to 2.3%


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## Meister

Valerie said:


> Notice as the price has risen the dividend yield moved inversely...from 5.4% to 2.3%



Yeah, because as the rise in price the dividend hasn't increased.


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## Valerie

Meister said:


> Valerie said:
> 
> 
> 
> Notice as the price has risen the dividend yield moved inversely...from 5.4% to 2.3%
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, because as the rise in price the dividend hasn't increased.
Click to expand...




  Yes, that's the funny thing about percentages which is what I was trying to illustrate.



In Jan 09 you could buy in at $30 and get a dividend of $1.68 per share, which when you express as a percentage of the price was around 5.4%

In Sept of 09 you could buy in at around $50 and still get the same dividend of $1.68 per share, which when expressed as a percent of the price was around 3.4%

So if you had bought in at $30 you would still have been yielding a dividend of 5.4% of your cost.  So the cost of yielding a $1.68 dividend went up.


Now today the dividend is actually up a bit to $1.76 per share, which when expressed as a percentage of the price is around 2.30%.  


SO if you bought in at $30, not only did you gain $46 per share, your dividend yield actually went up by .8 cents per share!  


A win / win all around!  True story!


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## Meister

Valerie said:


> Meister said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Valerie said:
> 
> 
> 
> Notice as the price has risen the dividend yield moved inversely...from 5.4% to 2.3%
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, because as the rise in price the dividend hasn't increased.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, that's the funny thing about percentages which is what I was trying to illustrate.
> 
> 
> 
> In Jan 09 you could buy in at $30 and get a dividend of $1.68 per share, which when you express as a percentage of the price was around 5.4%
> 
> In Sept of 09 you could buy in at around $50 and still get the same dividend of $1.68 per share, which when expressed as a percent of the price was around 3.4%
> 
> So if you had bought in at $30 you would still have been yielding a dividend of 5.4% of your cost.  So the cost of yielding a $1.68 dividend went up.
> 
> 
> Now today the dividend is actually up a bit to $1.76 per share, which when expressed as a percentage of the price is around 2.30%.
> 
> 
> SO if you bought in at $30, not only did you gain $46 per share, your dividend yield actually went up by .8 cents per share!
> 
> 
> A win / win all around!  True story!
Click to expand...

I bought Phillip Morris during the Clinton years when they were getting hit hard in the courts.  Bought them at $23.50, and from there they just kept rising. The yield at the time was something 9.3%.  I made a small fortune with that one stock when I finally sold several years later.

Goes to show that the best time to buy a straw hat is winter.


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## Valerie

Meister said:


> Valerie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Meister said:
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, because as the rise in price the dividend hasn't increased.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, that's the funny thing about percentages which is what I was trying to illustrate.
> 
> 
> 
> In Jan 09 you could buy in at $30 and get a dividend of $1.68 per share, which when you express as a percentage of the price was around 5.4%
> 
> In Sept of 09 you could buy in at around $50 and still get the same dividend of $1.68 per share, which when expressed as a percent of the price was around 3.4%
> 
> So if you had bought in at $30 you would still have been yielding a dividend of 5.4% of your cost.  So the cost of yielding a $1.68 dividend went up.
> 
> 
> Now today the dividend is actually up a bit to $1.76 per share, which when expressed as a percentage of the price is around 2.30%.
> 
> 
> SO if you bought in at $30, not only did you gain $46 per share, your dividend yield actually went up by .8 cents per share!
> 
> 
> A win / win all around!  True story!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I bought Phillip Morris during the Clinton years when they were getting hit hard in the courts.  Bought them at $23.50, and from there they just kept rising. The yield at the time was something 9.3%.  I made a small fortune with that one stock when I finally sold several years later.
> 
> Goes to show that the best time to buy a straw hat is winter.
Click to expand...




  So true!  Great story!




And I can't say enough about the benefits of achieving this sort of growth in a tax free Roth IRA!  Back in 2009 I bought CAT in hundred share increments for a total of 700 shares at an average cost of $30.  Now I am going to sell some of the shares and put my initial investment back into cash (within the Roth) that way the rest is gravy no matter what happens with CAT I am on top of it with no worries and I pay no tax on that ever!


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## topspin

I've had the alley cat for a long time, be carefull.


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## Douger

ETF's
Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile


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## topspin

thanks Contra Doug


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## Valerie

today i'm gonna sell some and take some cash off the table.  


*CAT *	10:57AM 	*108.87 *	Up 1.62 	Up 1.51% 	107.64 	108.91 	2,821,303 	4,542,720 	67.96B 	

http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AhzVGa5l7yT5_I2X3r_blAULv7gF;_ylu=X3oDMTExa25rZXV1BHBvcwMzNARzZWMDeWZpUXVvdGVzVGFibGUEc2xrA2NhdA--?s=CAT


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## Picaro

manu1959 said:


> well lets see.....when all the various state governments put all their road and bridges and tunnels on hold.....the wiped out the need for heavy construction equipment.....the stock tanked and caterpillar laid off a bunch of people....
> 
> now obama is abot to pass out millions to the sates to start up all those projects......
> 
> hmmmmmmmmmmm.......i wonder what will happen then....



Might be worth a gamble. Where will the taxes and revenue come from to pay for all of it? It's now considered 'bad' to tax anybody who can actually afford to pay taxes, and Romney says half the country doesn't pay any taxes. 

 I guess some sort of 'invisible hand' will magically appear and make it all good.


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## Rozman

DavidS said:


> SELL SELL SELL if you need money now! New home construction has nowhere to go but down from here since we can't fill the homes that are already built. New construction projects around the country that would require a caterpillar are plummeting. The only reason you should hold onto this company is if you don't need cash in the next 2-3 years and you want it to really rise up in value, which it will do when the economy rebounds. I would go so far to say that we may be taking such drastic action that we could face a housing shortage in less than a decade from now.






> *when the economy rebounds.*



I'm 61 now....
Will this shitty economy rebound in my life time....
Let's say I have 20 years left... LOL


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## Picaro

Rozman said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> SELL SELL SELL if you need money now! New home construction has nowhere to go but down from here since we can't fill the homes that are already built. New construction projects around the country that would require a caterpillar are plummeting. The only reason you should hold onto this company is if you don't need cash in the next 2-3 years and you want it to really rise up in value, which it will do when the economy rebounds. I would go so far to say that we may be taking such drastic action that we could face a housing shortage in less than a decade from now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *when the economy rebounds.*
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I'm 61 now....
> Will this ****ty economy rebound in my life time....
> Let's say I have 20 years left... LOL
Click to expand...


It's going to be tough in a 'service economy' to keep pumping up asset price bubbles and getting the suckers to borrow heavily on imaginary 'equity' over and over and over, as has been the case since the oil crisis era.


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## fanger

> DETROIT  After passionate debate over how best to help break the deadlock between Israel and the Palestinians, the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) voted on Friday at its general convention to divest from three companies that it says supply Israel with equipment used in the occupation of Palestinian territory.
> 
> The B.D.S. campaign has gained support in Europe, but has not fared as well in the United States, where two relatively small academic groups voted this year to support an academic boycott of Israel, but larger groups as well as many universities have opposed it.
> 
> 
> The companies the church has targeted for divestment are Caterpillar, Hewlett-Packard and Motorola Solutions. The church has about $21 million invested in them, a spokeswoman said. The church says it has tried for many years to convey its concerns that the companies are profiting from Israels occupation of Palestinian territories by selling it bulldozers, surveillance technology and other equipment.


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/21/u...-occupation-vote-to-divest-holdings.html?_r=0


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## Zmrzlina

They aren't a good buy unless you are ok with a company being complicit in war crimes. http://www.thejerusalemfund.org/images/WarCrimesLitigation.pdf


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