# This NEXT Bubble Is Going To Hurt!



## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

*william the wie  AND Toddsterpatriot . Okay guys the NEXT bubble is auto loans and it will hit before the summer is over. MORE people are under water on their car loan than were home loans. A 5 year old Ford truck is simply not worth 50k on the market.

Cars were ALSO sold at below prime number. Car loans were ALSO bundled and re-sold just like home loans. Ford is killing it's ENTIRE car line except Mustang/SUV/ Ford trucks. It seems according to studies truck buyers have a lower default rate.2018 is the LAST year for the Towncar, the sedan is DEAD.

Jeep is switching to Fiat running gear, talk about going to shit. American cars are to OVER tech to OVER priced and to UNDER built. Dodge is gone okay? Dead for years. Ford is changing to save its ass. GM has been dropping models for years. 

By the end of THIS decade there will only be ONE American car builder. Its FORCED globalization via the market. Right Dale Smith 

Fury*


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

*Dale Smith  Global control is not coming via war, global control is going to happen via the markets. That IS what these bubbles are, the silent coup.  Shit Stain did not save GM, he merely picked the winner. It was fixed.
You can buy the ORIGINAL GM shares on the net for about a dollar. When the ORIGINAL share is barely worth toilet paper what was SAVED? Nothing and it was NEVER intended to save anything!

That makes the "bubbles" the lynch pin of the coup NOT the result OF.  EVERY bubble re-centers the market and the "sides" are getting smaller and smaller.*


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## william the wie (Jul 3, 2018)

Way outside of my area of expertise. What I do know is that pipeline build out should cause a big price drop in oil within a year and somebody is likely to realize that a high speed rail built in prairie Trump country can get Trump reelected at relatively low cost and give the economy another big sugar high.


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## iamwhatiseem (Jul 3, 2018)

Not to worry.... your tax dollars will bail them out....again.
By my last count General Motors subsidiaries have successfully filed bankruptcy 17 times.
  But hey - GM has never filed bankruptcy!!


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Way outside of my area of expertise. What I do know is that pipeline build out should cause a big price drop in oil within a year and somebody is likely to realize that a high speed rail built in prairie Trump country can get Trump reelected at relatively low cost and give the economy another big sugar high.


*The price of oil will not stop the bubble. Its the sub prime loans they made. The market value of those units are fake. A stock NOT to have is going to be insurance. Easier to wreck a car on purpose than to burn down a house. and legal.*


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## Indeependent (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


> *william the wie  AND Toddsterpatriot . Okay guys the NEXT bubble is auto loans and it will hit before the summer is over. MORE people are under water on their car loan than were home loans. A 5 year old Ford truck is simply not worth 50k on the market.
> 
> Cars were ALSO sold at below prime number. Car loans were ALSO bundled and re-sold just like home loans. Ford is killing it's ENTIRE car line except Mustang/SUV/ Ford trucks. It seems according to studies truck buyers have a lower default rate.2018 is the LAST year for the Towncar, the sedan is DEAD.
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Where is the money coming from to finance these ridiculously low car loans?


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## iamwhatiseem (Jul 3, 2018)

The weird thing I have been seeing lately is ridiculously low lease offers for new trucks.
Kinda hard to figure out how leasing a $38,000 truck for $199 a month for 2 years, with a $2000 sign on is making any profit. Total outlay is only $6800. There is no way a 2 year old truck with 28,000 mi. plus on it only loses $6,800 in depreciation.


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

Indeependent said:


> DarkFury said:
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> > *william the wie  AND Toddsterpatriot . Okay guys the NEXT bubble is auto loans and it will hit before the summer is over. MORE people are under water on their car loan than were home loans. A 5 year old Ford truck is simply not worth 50k on the market.
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*The ORINGINAL finance comes from the car builders. They then re-package to loans to be sold to credit investors. *


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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Where is your unbiased link to proof of this? Which auto manufacturers self-finance? 

Lol... and it's 'original' and 'the'...not 'to'.


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

McRocket said:


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*You are WAY over your head McStupid. Just bow out and shut up.*


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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Lol...this from a guy who clearly made up that Harley Davidson is taxed 1000% overseas.

You made the claim about the car manufacturers...so, where is your unbiased link to prove what you claimed?

You are making a fool of yourself, GayFury.


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## william the wie (Jul 3, 2018)

A gigantic problem for auto makers worldwide is that the dollar is strengthening a lot and that means massive Emerging Markets bond defaults. A lot of money is being pulled out of the EMs. For example, China's debt load estimates start at 4GDPs and go up from there. That level of defaults is a major problem for the overseas plants of the big two.


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

McRocket said:


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*You have never heard of Ford credit? Or Toyota? See that IS the problem here, you are far to ignorant to educate. Now I'm going to put you on IGNORE so the thread smells better.
Good bye!!*


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

william the wie said:


> A gigantic problem for auto makers worldwide is that the dollar is strengthening a lot and that means massive Emerging Markets bond defaults. A lot of money is being pulled out of the EMs. For example, China's debt load estimates start at 4GDPs and go up from there. That level of defaults is a major problem for the overseas plants of the big two.


*Ford motors does not want to be stuck with the liabilty of Ford credit. By re-packaging those loans and selling them for less they get cash PLUS a tax write off right?  So they get a short term influx with long term relief.
And the buyer winds up with junk bonds.*


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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I asked which auto builders? All you typed was 'the original finance comes from the car builders'. 
 Just becauae a car company says it self-finances - does not mean it actually does.
  Fiat-Chrysler currently does it through Santander.

I realize several do. But several do not.

Plus, a huge percentage of car loans come from other sources.

So? Where is your link to statistics to verify your claims?
 Or are you making things up again...GayFury?

Plus, 

Terms of Service Violation


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

McRocket said:


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So...you claim to ignore me GayFury. Yet you read my reply to you and then 'Smiled' on it?

So I guess you were lying about ignoring me as well.

So...I will ask you again...where is your unbiased links to back up your claims in this thread?

Or are you making them up again...like you did with your ridiculous claim that Harley Davidson is tariffed 1000% overseas?


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## Marion Morrison (Jul 3, 2018)

Not a good time to buy a Ford truck, aye? Well that sucks, because I have to.


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

Marion Morrison said:


> Not a good time to buy a Ford truck, aye? Well that sucks, because I have to.


*FORD is keeping their truck line. The town car is dead. Jeep is going to be Fiat powered so that sucker is over. *


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## Marion Morrison (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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I thought Jeep is MOPAR now. I remember you used to could stick a Chevy engine in a Jeep.


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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Why do you keep babbling about the Town Car? It has been dead for 7 years...idiot.

Lincoln Town Car - Wikipedia


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

Marion Morrison said:


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Fiat OWNS Dodge. Dodge got Jeep when they bought AMC.


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


> *william the wie  AND Toddsterpatriot . Okay guys the NEXT bubble is auto loans and it will hit before the summer is over. MORE people are under water on their car loan than were home loans. A 5 year old Ford truck is simply not worth 50k on the market.
> 
> Cars were ALSO sold at below prime number. Car loans were ALSO bundled and re-sold just like home loans. Ford is killing it's ENTIRE car line except Mustang/SUV/ Ford trucks. It seems according to studies truck buyers have a lower default rate.2018 is the LAST year for the Towncar, the sedan is DEAD.
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What part of your ass are you pulling this from?

You claim 2018 is the last year for the Town Car?

The Town Car went out of production in 2011...7 years ago!!!

Lincoln Town Car - Wikipedia

Do you ever post facts...or do you just make up everything?


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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Dodge did not buy Jeep. Chrysler bought Jeep. Dodge is a car line NOT the name of the corporation.


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

*Ford will cease to produce sedans. It will be trucks/SUV and Mustang.*


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


> *Ford will cease to produce sedans. It will be trucks/SUV and Mustang.*



1) Ford will stop making 'cars' (except 2 models), not just sedans.

Sedans is a type of car...it does not encapsulate all cars.


2) Ford will be making 2 cars - not just the Mustang.

Ford Will Stop Making Cars — Except These 2 Models


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

McRocket said:


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*Ah, McStpupid a "cross over" IS a SUV. You moron.
Ford trucks.
Ford Mustang
Ford SUV's
NO Sedans idiot.*


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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*The Mustang IS A SEDAN...you dumbass. It's got a trunk...it is not a hatchback.*



BTW - I thought you said you were ignoring me? Another fabrication, I guess.


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

McRocket said:


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*The Mustang is a COUPE idiot. It has TWO doors you fuckin tard. A SEDAN has FOUR.  The level of McStupid you bring to a thread is amazing! *


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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Wrong idiot.

A sedan can have two doors.

sedan Meaning in the Cambridge English Dictionary

I suggest you stop talking moron...you are making a fool of yourself...whacko.


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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Oh yes...and what year does the Town Car stop production again?

LOL.


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

McRocket said:


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*How many doors on a Caddy Coup Deville idiot?
How many doors on a SEDAN Deville tard? *


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

McRocket said:


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*The MDK is the CURRENT version of the town car. Just like the LSC replaced the Mark series.
*


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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What the fuck are you babbling about?

*There is no such thing as a Lincoln MDK...whacko.

The Lincoln MKT was touted as a 'sort of' replacement for the Town car...but it is an SUV and is NOTHING LIKE the old Town Car.

But you TWICE said they were stopping production in the Town Car this year.

*
You are clearly just talking out of your ass.
*
*


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

McRocket said:


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*The MDK is a cross over, NOT A TRUCK and NOT A CAR. But you ARE AN IDIOT. Back to ignore you ball washing picket fence toothed drooling retard.*


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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2018 Ford Mustang GT Sedan Rendered As the Four-Door from Hell

Read the definition of sedan you uneducated psycho.

_'*Definition of sedan*
: a portable often covered chair that is designed to carry one person and that is borne on poles by two people
2a : *a 2- or 4-door automobile seating four or more persons *and usually having a permanent top — compare coupe
: a motorboat having one passenger compartment'_

Definition of SEDAN

A Mustang could be called either...but it is TECHNICALLY a sedan.


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## Bruce_T_Laney (Jul 3, 2018)

Hey Fury it will happen soon enough that we will be either part of the one world order or be genocide...


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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*There is NO SUCH THING AS A 2018 Lincoln MDK...you psycho.

Clearly, you are making it up.*

Brand New 2018 Lincoln Luxury Sedans, SUV Crossovers, (Luxury CUVs) and SUVs - Lincoln.com


And yes folks...that is twice in one day this man/boy has put me on his ignore list.

Make up your mind...and get some mental therapy...you NEED it.


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

Bruce_T_Laney said:


> Hey Fury it will happen soon enough that we will be either part of the one world order or be genocide...


They are closing the choies sure enough. How much you give me for that idiot McRocket ? Give you a good price!


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## McRocket (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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LOL...this from a guy who talks about the 2018 Town Car (even though the Town Car went out of production in 2011) and insists that there is a Lincoln MDK (even though there is no such thing as a 2018 Lincoln MDK).


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## Bruce_T_Laney (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


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You have to pay me and still not enough to take him off your hands...

So many on the left believe in something that can never happen because of greed, envy and sloth...

But they will keep on trying until on day their Trotsky way of living has become reality.

I rather starve than be part of that world...


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## DarkFury (Jul 3, 2018)

Bruce_T_Laney said:


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*Well I may need to list him on the site. Maybe strollingbones  needs a new cock sucker? *


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## Toddsterpatriot (Jul 3, 2018)

DarkFury said:


> *william the wie  AND Toddsterpatriot . Okay guys the NEXT bubble is auto loans and it will hit before the summer is over. MORE people are under water on their car loan than were home loans. A 5 year old Ford truck is simply not worth 50k on the market.
> 
> Cars were ALSO sold at below prime number. Car loans were ALSO bundled and re-sold just like home loans. Ford is killing it's ENTIRE car line except Mustang/SUV/ Ford trucks. It seems according to studies truck buyers have a lower default rate.2018 is the LAST year for the Towncar, the sedan is DEAD.
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*Okay guys the NEXT bubble is auto loans and it will hit before the summer is over.*

Why?


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## Dale Smith (Jul 4, 2018)

DarkFury said:


> *Dale Smith  Global control is not coming via war, global control is going to happen via the markets. That IS what these bubbles are, the silent coup.  Shit Stain did not save GM, he merely picked the winner. It was fixed.
> You can buy the ORIGINAL GM shares on the net for about a dollar. When the ORIGINAL share is barely worth toilet paper what was SAVED? Nothing and it was NEVER intended to save anything!
> 
> That makes the "bubbles" the lynch pin of the coup NOT the result OF.  EVERY bubble re-centers the market and the "sides" are getting smaller and smaller.*




The banking oligarchs create the bubble and pull out when the profit to be made is highest and then they implode it...watch the carnage and then jump back in and buy up shares for pennies on the dollar and the cycle starts all over. The poor get screwed and the Illuminati bankers and their thirteen bloodline families suck more wealth out of their "energy sources" which is us.

It's not a pretty picture but it's a fucking fact.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Jul 4, 2018)

Dale Smith said:


> DarkFury said:
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*The banking oligarchs create the bubble and pull out when the profit to be made is highest and then they implode it*

Exactly!!

That's why no bank CEO lost his job after the crisis and every bank made money during the crisis.

Wait, what?


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## McRocket (Jul 4, 2018)

Toddsterpatriot said:


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Holy crap...you are REALLY ignorant about the economy.

*You dumb shit...if the banks planned it all and got out when things were good...why did the Fed have to bail them out to the tune of $1.6 TRILLION DOLLARS directly and LOADS more indirectly?
 And why did Bear Stearns go under?*

_'Over the next six months, TARP was dwarfed by other guarantees and lending limits; analysis by Bloomberg found the Federal Reservehad, by March 2009, committed $7.77 trillion to rescuing the financial system, more than half the value of everything produced in the U.S. that year'

Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 - Wikipedia
_
 The banks got killed by the boom/bust...they just had the Fed to bail them out.

 Uneducated hick...stick to what you know (being xenophobic, misogynistic, racist and masturbating to pictures of Trump) and leave macroeconomics to those of us with IQ's over 90.

We are done here as I won't waste a second reading your - or other Trumpbot - undoubtedly moronic reply.


Have a nice day.


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## Toro (Jul 4, 2018)

This isn’t a big problem. Subprime auto is a small fraction of the economy compared to the mortgage market, and the banking system is strong. 

Stocks will get whacked one day simply because valuations are very high and interest rates are rising.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Jul 4, 2018)

McRocket said:


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*The banks got killed by the boom/bust...they just had the Fed to bail them out.*

Congrats!

You've discovered Dale is an idiot.


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## Toro (Jul 4, 2018)

McRocket said:


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Todd and I work in the financial markets.

I’ve been in the investment business for 20 years, and I don’t work for a bank.

I also don’t believe that the CRA nor the GSEs were the reasons for the Financial Crisis.

The banks WERE stupid, but they didn’t plan the Crisis. Such conspiracy theories by the likes of Crazy Dale put one way out there on the crazy plane.


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## DrLove (Jul 4, 2018)

DarkFury said:


> *william the wie  AND Toddsterpatriot . Okay guys the NEXT bubble is auto loans and it will hit before the summer is over. MORE people are under water on their car loan than were home loans. A 5 year old Ford truck is simply not worth 50k on the market.
> 
> Cars were ALSO sold at below prime number. Car loans were ALSO bundled and re-sold just like home loans. Ford is killing it's ENTIRE car line except Mustang/SUV/ Ford trucks. It seems according to studies truck buyers have a lower default rate.2018 is the LAST year for the Towncar, the sedan is DEAD.
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And you will blame it on Obama for saving Detroit
Amiright?


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## Crepitus (Jul 4, 2018)

McRocket said:


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Every major manufacturer has their own finance company.  From Ford Motor Credit to Toyota Financial.  Well known fact.


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## Toro (Jul 4, 2018)

Crepitus said:


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I think some of those have been spun off.


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## william the wie (Jul 4, 2018)

Toro said:


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Bank CEOs at Bear got fired and Lehman brothers and several other less famous places did get fired.


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## Toro (Jul 4, 2018)

william the wie said:


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Yup.

And I edited my original post. 

Those thinking that the GFC was planned are clueless retards.


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## Manonthestreet (Jul 4, 2018)

william the wie said:


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And none got prosecuted....


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## Crepitus (Jul 4, 2018)

McRocket said:


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Captive Finance Company | DMV.ORG


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## Crepitus (Jul 4, 2018)

Toro said:


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Captive Finance Company | DMV.ORG


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## Manonthestreet (Jul 4, 2018)

Whether it was planned or not the outcome should have been easy to deduce.....and correct......for so called financial wizards.


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## yiostheoy (Jul 4, 2018)

DarkFury said:


> *william the wie  AND Toddsterpatriot . Okay guys the NEXT bubble is auto loans and it will hit before the summer is over. MORE people are under water on their car loan than were home loans. A 5 year old Ford truck is simply not worth 50k on the market.
> 
> Cars were ALSO sold at below prime number. Car loans were ALSO bundled and re-sold just like home loans. Ford is killing it's ENTIRE car line except Mustang/SUV/ Ford trucks. It seems according to studies truck buyers have a lower default rate.2018 is the LAST year for the Towncar, the sedan is DEAD.
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Yup Jeep's aren't Jeep's anymore.

My Jeep is a 2001 and I keep rebuilding it.

When I can't rebuild it anymore I will probably need to go for a GMC.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Jul 4, 2018)

Manonthestreet said:


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Making stupid investment choices usually isn't a crime.


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## Manonthestreet (Jul 4, 2018)

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Selling fraudulent products is.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Jul 4, 2018)

Manonthestreet said:


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Who did that?


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## Manonthestreet (Jul 4, 2018)

Banks did.....it's called mortgage backed securities.....bundling shit together and selling it as grade A


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## Manonthestreet (Jul 4, 2018)

How soon people forget. When multiple Banks show up at multiple foreclosures claiming they own the house and the true owner can't be identified you might be in a shitshow of fraud.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Jul 4, 2018)

Manonthestreet said:


> Banks did.....it's called mortgage backed securities.....bundling shit together and selling it as grade A



MBS aren't fraudulent products.


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## Manonthestreet (Jul 4, 2018)

Toddsterpatriot said:


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When they are misslabled risk wise they are


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## Natural Citizen (Jul 4, 2018)

Toro said:


> Todd and I work in the financial markets.



Which precisely explains why neither one of you know what you're talking about when it comes to economic theory and monetary policy.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Jul 4, 2018)

Manonthestreet said:


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The rating agencies fucked up.


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## Indeependent (Jul 4, 2018)

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But what about the 4 million people who lost their homes?
I guess they all should have become bank CEOs?


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## Toddsterpatriot (Jul 4, 2018)

Indeependent said:


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*But what about the 4 million people who lost their homes?*

What about them?


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## Indeependent (Jul 4, 2018)

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I worked for Chase Manhattan and Banker's Trust.
The mentality was that some other sucker would deal with the problem down the road.


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## Indeependent (Jul 4, 2018)

Toddsterpatriot said:


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Sarbanes/Oxley...
The banks received no punishment for their irresponsible behavior.
Did they tell stockholders they were approving billions of dollars in loans that were definitely going to tank?
I'm sorry, but the borrowers were rejected by the software and the loans were rubber stamped.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Jul 4, 2018)

Indeependent said:


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*Sarbanes/Oxley...*

More terrible legislation. 

*Did they tell stockholders they were approving billions of dollars in loans that were definitely going to tank?*

If banks knew they were making loans that would tank, why did they end up holding so many of those loans?

It's like the idiot above who said banks did it on purpose, to buy cheaply at the bottom of the crash.
The banks lost trillions. They weren't as smart or as prescient as some people feel.


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## saveliberty (Jul 4, 2018)

iamwhatiseem said:


> The weird thing I have been seeing lately is ridiculously low lease offers for new trucks.
> Kinda hard to figure out how leasing a $38,000 truck for $199 a month for 2 years, with a $2000 sign on is making any profit. Total outlay is only $6800. There is no way a 2 year old truck with 28,000 mi. plus on it only loses $6,800 in depreciation.



Leases are typically where automakers lose money when they try to increase market share.  There is a shortage of good used cars, trucks and SUVs.  Off lease vehicles help fill that need.  People that took six to eight year loans on a vehicle are probably in big trouble.  Most buy a payment, so as long as that is affordable and the vehicle works, things are probably okay.  Leasing is also used to get rid of negative equity in a trade frequently.

Foreign car makers are in more trouble as most are pushing cars, which appears to be a smaller and smaller market.


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## Indeependent (Jul 4, 2018)

Toddsterpatriot said:


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Fees and commissions and thinking Japanese and Chinese banks would rather take partial payments in lieu of full payments.
And if your boss says to rubber stamp or enjoy unemployment, well...


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## TroglocratsRdumb (Jul 4, 2018)

New cars are overpriced


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## Andylusion (Jul 4, 2018)

DarkFury said:


> *william the wie  AND Toddsterpatriot . Okay guys the NEXT bubble is auto loans and it will hit before the summer is over. MORE people are under water on their car loan than were home loans. A 5 year old Ford truck is simply not worth 50k on the market.
> 
> Cars were ALSO sold at below prime number. Car loans were ALSO bundled and re-sold just like home loans. Ford is killing it's ENTIRE car line except Mustang/SUV/ Ford trucks. It seems according to studies truck buyers have a lower default rate.2018 is the LAST year for the Towncar, the sedan is DEAD.
> 
> ...



So the short answer is, deregulate the auto industry, and this will go away.

The mid-size answer is, it is specifically because the government bailed out GM, by allowing them to apply their GMAC arm as a bank and get a bail out, that has setup this situation.

By bailing out the auto companies, now all the auto companies think they can continue to run their business the same risky way it was before, and if the world implodes, then the government will bail them out.

This is why you NEVER BAIL ANYONE OUT.  Ever.

And the long answer is.......

This is not going to be a huge problem.

The sub-prime crash caused large problems throughout the country, because the entire industry was built on assumptions that housing prices will continue to rise, because housing prices generally continue to rise.

When housing prices started to fall, that threw an entire chunk of the economy into spiral, because they were all geared for increasing housing prices, and had no contingency plans for falling prices.

That problem can't happen with automobiles, because prices for automobiles always fall.   All cars go down in value like a rock.   That's where Chevy got that slogan.... Like a Rock.  Values of autos goes down, like a rock.

So there won't be any banks buying automobile assets, saying "Oh my goodness!  It though these would go up in value!".

Not happening.

Equally, most people grasp that cars go down in value.  No one is sinking their retirement into their car, like they do a property, and thinking "Oh crud!  I thought with this Ford, I'd be set for retirement!".

No one is going to do that.

The only way this becomes a major economic problem, is if the US government intervenes again into the economy.   If they do, then yes, we will have problems just like before.  If they don't, then this will recover pretty quickly.

*One thing that irritates me, is when people freak out that 'people are underwater on their auto loans'.*

Um....  Yeah.   That's virtually 100% of all auto loans.

That is, almost inherent to an auto loan.  Literally by definition, you will be underwater on an auto loan.

The reason most people who buy a home, are not underwater, is because the standard requirement for a prime rate loan, is 20% down payment, and the home goes up in value over time.

This is the opposite for cars.   Most car loans have you pay less, or zero percent down, and the car goes down in value.

Most people are underwater on their car loan, the moment they drive it off the lot.  Remember, when your car rolls over that curb at the dealership, your car loses 10% of it's value.  The loan is $20,000 on a $20,000 car, and within 5 minutes, the car is worth $18,000.   You are underwater on your car loan.

By the end of the first 12 months of ownership, your car loses another 10% of it's value, and unless you paid $4K down on that car in the first year, you have a loan for $19K, on a car worth $16K.   You are way underwater in the first year.

And that isn't even true, because most of your payments are going towards interest on that loan.  So you owe more than $20K, on a car worth less than $16,000 in the first year.

Auto loans have always been underwater.   This is not new, and not worth freaking out over.


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## Andylusion (Jul 4, 2018)

TroglocratsRdumb said:


> New cars are overpriced



If they were over priced, they wouldn't sell.  I don't buy stuff that is over priced.


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## DarkFury (Jul 4, 2018)

Andylusion said:


> TroglocratsRdumb said:
> 
> 
> > New cars are overpriced
> ...


Plastic does not hold up like steel. Cars ARE over priced and under built.


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## Andylusion (Jul 4, 2018)

DarkFury said:


> Andylusion said:
> 
> 
> > TroglocratsRdumb said:
> ...



Again... if that was true, then people wouldn't be buying them.

The market suggests your opinions are not universal.


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## Indeependent (Jul 4, 2018)

Andylusion said:


> TroglocratsRdumb said:
> 
> 
> > New cars are overpriced
> ...


We're in a construction bubble right now...commercial and residential.
If the economy doesn't continue to expand or contracts just enough, it might not be so pretty.


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## Indeependent (Jul 4, 2018)

DarkFury said:


> Andylusion said:
> 
> 
> > TroglocratsRdumb said:
> ...


From R&D to actual product you truly believe current vehicles are so overpriced?


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## Andylusion (Jul 4, 2018)

Indeependent said:


> Andylusion said:
> 
> 
> > TroglocratsRdumb said:
> ...



Well.... that's true of literally everything.

Values change constantly.   Nothing is static in a dynamic economy.

Meaning, that when people say "this is a bubble".... that is usually not true.    Prices during economic growth, or usually high and going up.... because there is economic growth, and the demand for assets is high.

When the economy falls, values fall.  That doesn't mean it was a bubble.   When the demand was high, the values were correctly high.   When the demand falls, values correctly fall.

It doesn't mean the high values during high demand, were wrong.  They were correct.  It wasn't a bubble.

It's the same thing as people claiming there was a bubble in the stock market in the 1920s.   The claim there was a bubble, because when the market crash, stocks lost half their value.

No, it wasn't bubble.  The economy changed, which changed the demand, which changed the values.

There is no evidence whatsoever, by any economic or statistical measure, that the market in the roaring 20s, was over valued, or that there was a bubble.

Bad government policy intervening in the economy, ruined the economy, which changed demand, which changed values of the market.

So how do you tell the difference between a real bubble, and simply a change in the market?    It's hard. 

It's usually when you can see a drastic change in prices over a relatively short time frame, the deviate from long term trends.







As you can see, there was a fairly stable increase in housing prices, that lasted from the 1950s to about 1997.  Then in 1997, you see a massive spike in prices.

That indicates an actual bubble, rather than just a result of market demand.


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## Indeependent (Jul 4, 2018)

Andylusion said:


> Indeependent said:
> 
> 
> > Andylusion said:
> ...


Market Demand goes hand in hand with irresponsible lending practices.
There are slums in Hempstead, Roosevelt and Uniondale NY where people making under 50K have already received 600K mortgages and have built their mansions and are leasing their BMWs.

My son-in-law lives in Miami and does commercial and industrial real estate assessment; there's not one piece of real estate available and there's been no real estate transaction in over 2 years because even the banks know everything that sold was way overpriced.
Houston is also in way over it's head.
The big growth now, which is pretty much exhausted, is the purchase and development of Big Tech near dozens of universities around the country.

Our lenders are out of control and they'll get away with it just as they did the last time.


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## iamwhatiseem (Jul 4, 2018)

DarkFury said:


> Andylusion said:
> 
> 
> > TroglocratsRdumb said:
> ...



Sorry, but cars are better built today than perhaps ever before.
They are 1000 times more reliable than decades ago. Particularly the 60's - 80's. Who can forget people driving cars and trucks where they were literally disintegrating into a pile of rust before they even paid them off!
The old late 70's - 80's uni-body frames were notorious for warping even if all you did was drive over some rough pavement, not to mention they also rusted out fast. 
  Mechanically, the power train today is vastly superior to decades ago.


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## Andylusion (Jul 4, 2018)

Indeependent said:


> Andylusion said:
> 
> 
> > Indeependent said:
> ...



Well.... sort of....

You can artificially create demand, by increasing lending.  That's true.   However, in a free-market.... free-market meaning a market free of government influence, the loss suffered by banks at the hands of defaulting lenders would put in place a restriction on unqualified borrowers.

Equally in a free-market, where people had to own up to their contractual agreements, like paying back every penny you borrow, the consequences of borrowing too much would cause borrowers to restrict themselves.

Canada is a great example of this in both regards.

The Canadian banking system is significantly less regulated than the US banking system.   Equally the Canadian government does not bailout banks when they make bad loans.    Also, there is no bankruptcy laws that allow Canadian citizens to just avoid the consequences of going into debt.

Both of those effects result in a self-regulated system where banks are less likely to make risky loans, and the citizens themselves are less likely to apply for loans that they can't afford.

This is why there were no massive bank crashes in Canada, in the 2008 recession, or the 1930s depression.

So, again I would say the solution is to deregulate the banking industry, and absolutely refuse to bail anyone out.

IF the lenders are out of control.... who cares?   Let them default, go bankrupt, and then when they remove themselves from the market, the economy will recover.


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## Manonthestreet (Jul 4, 2018)

Don't need deregulation to let Banks fail....simply need the will to say no when them come asking


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## Toro (Jul 4, 2018)

Indeependent said:


> Toddsterpatriot said:
> 
> 
> > Indeependent said:
> ...



Most of the loans were packaged and sold to investors.  They were on the merry-go-round, getting paid until the music stopped.

I remember having some f****** bank pitching synthetic CDOs to us as being a safe investment to us in 2007 as part of an equity index swap. When the meeting was over, I looked at my boss and told him there was absolutely no fucking way we’d be doing this. We didn’t. That’s the only time I’ve ever sworn to/at my boss.


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## Dale Smith (Jul 4, 2018)

McRocket said:


> Toddsterpatriot said:
> 
> 
> > Dale Smith said:
> ...




Yeah, the Fed loaned their alleged failing banks "money" from an empty vault and put it on the "good faith and credit" of their indentured debts slaves whose signature that was put on a monetized Promissory Note that got fucked out of their homes due to predatory lending. So, to sum it all up? The banks get bailed out and have a hard asset to resell with no equal risk/ consideration on their part. I know EXACTLY how the system works and "yes", this conversation need not go any further because you are utterly clueless.


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