# Who's Pulling Out?



## william the wie (Jan 9, 2016)

A lot of people are getting into cash, I was wondering how many.


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## Gracie (Jan 9, 2016)

I have no cc's. If I can't pay cash for something, then I don't need it. Been that way for about 10 years now.


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## DarkFury (Jan 9, 2016)

*Raw land in Josephine county Oregon. They went broke about 3 years ago and values dropped about 70%. Last depression stocks lost money but cash still had value. Next one money will crash.*


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## william the wie (Jan 9, 2016)

Gracie said:


> I have no cc's. If I can't pay cash for something, then I don't need it. Been that way for about 10 years now.


A smart move but I'm asking if you are getting out of stocks and bonds.


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## jon_berzerk (Jan 9, 2016)

william the wie said:


> A lot of people are getting into cash, I was wondering how many.



that would be a mistake


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## Gracie (Jan 9, 2016)

william the wie said:


> Gracie said:
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> > I have no cc's. If I can't pay cash for something, then I don't need it. Been that way for about 10 years now.
> ...


Oh. Sorry. Dad had bonds for me when I was a teen. I got them after he died and cashed them in. I don't know nuttin' about stocks.


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## william the wie (Jan 9, 2016)

DarkFury said:


> *Raw land in Josephine county Oregon. They went broke about 3 years ago and values dropped about 70%. Last depression stocks lost money but cash still had value. Next one money will crash.*[/QUOTE
> 
> I understand that meme but the crash was an effect of the collapse in farmland 1921-39.


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## DarkFury (Jan 9, 2016)

william the wie said:


> Gracie said:
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> > I have no cc's. If I can't pay cash for something, then I don't need it. Been that way for about 10 years now.
> ...


*Bonds yes, to many cities going broke even state issued bonds are iffy. Stocks no, Shifting from medical and tech to materials.*


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## william the wie (Jan 9, 2016)

jon_berzerk said:


> william the wie said:
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> > A lot of people are getting into cash, I was wondering how many.
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True but that won't stop it from happening


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## jon_berzerk (Jan 9, 2016)

william the wie said:


> jon_berzerk said:
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yes


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## DarkFury (Jan 9, 2016)

william the wie said:


> DarkFury said:
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> > *Raw land in Josephine county Oregon. They went broke about 3 years ago and values dropped about 70%. Last depression stocks lost money but cash still had value. Next one money will crash.*[/QUOTE
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Stocks were really overrated at that point, WAY over their true value. But cash was solid what little there was. But the currency had backing at that time.

Now cashes backing is less then a dime on a dollar right?


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## william the wie (Jan 9, 2016)

DarkFury said:


> william the wie said:
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Agree 100% on munies. As to raw materials that's feast or famine.


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## william the wie (Jan 9, 2016)

DarkFury said:


> william the wie said:
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If that.

but 1921-9 was a typical tech stock boom like the 1960s or 1990s or like Apple, Google and drones right now. These types of limited bubbles go back to the 1770s.The real danger is if they create a bubble in raw materials like has happened across the board this time and in the 1920s with saturation of appliances, autos, utilities and radios in1926-9


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## DarkFury (Jan 9, 2016)

william the wie said:


> DarkFury said:
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*I like to buy for the two to four year time frame. I'm figuring four year at this point with a two year down cycle to start. I BUY during the down cycle.

Obama closed the last lead mine in America, the Buick mine in Missouri. THAT stock right now is damn near free. BUT, if we go to war that stock will jump overnight.

Copper mine stocks are also LOW. If we go to war it will jump as well. Base metals and base materials. They have a new type of pressboard out that uses fiberglass INSTEAD of glue. Its stronger then whole wood let alone pressboard.

They first experimented using fiberglass in concrete called "Fibercrete. And found you could cut building costs because you no longer needed as much rebar. 

Graphite will be the next big thing. They have been using Graphite impregnated panels on airplanes for a while. They are in many ways just starting to use it making auto body panels which are almost as strong as steel but with 50% less weight.

So that being the case I am looking for the right company who makes the resin to put some money in.

Thoughts?*


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## DarkFury (Jan 9, 2016)

william the wie said:


> DarkFury said:
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*China can flood us and has been. Okay WHY I dropped the tech. That nuke plant in Japan is STILL leaking radioactive waste water into the ocean. The fish are showing burns AND mutating.
THAT city is the major tech section of Japan.

And those companies will have to DUMP that land on tax payers or rot and die because of the conditions. The LAST thing I would want to do is compete with a hundred other companies for real estate in a place where the market is the HIGHEST in the world. *


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## Billy_Kinetta (Jan 9, 2016)

Only for ... oh, never mind.


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## sjay (Jan 10, 2016)

Gracie said:


> I have no cc's. If I can't pay cash for something, then I don't need it. Been that way for about 10 years now.


What does the above remark have to do  with being in or out of investment markets?


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## Unkotare (Jan 10, 2016)

Depends. Do you plan to have a future with this girl?


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## william the wie (Jan 10, 2016)

As to tech being a problem of location (post 16) the really big problem for tech of any kind is you can only see the saturation point in the rearview mirror. As with smartphones, that hit saturation only 3-4 wks ago a massive downward revision in PEs awaits. But how long will it take to work its way through the supply and distribution chains even now that Samsung and Apple have both taken corrective measures and revised guidance?

In oil and natural gas Sovereign Wealth Funds have burn rates that read like silicon valley start ups in places like Norway and Saudi Arabia. This problem is on an intercept course with two things:

Pipelines reaching already low marginal cost fracking fields to make the bottom even lower.

And achieving a price point and scale that makes alternative fuels competitive.

In other words does the shortrun or longrun demise of OPEC hit first?

Anything other than limiting losses with two way bets is getting dangerous out there.


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## gipper (Jan 10, 2016)

william the wie said:


> A lot of people are getting into cash, I was wondering how many.


Really.  You have to wonder why?  Why?


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## william the wie (Jan 10, 2016)

gipper said:


> william the wie said:
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> > A lot of people are getting into cash, I was wondering how many.
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The more money that gets pulled out of the market the less I have to pay for dollar of dividend yield, covered option premiums, growth and margin of safety.


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## rdean (Jan 10, 2016)

I think the fact Republicans are always looking and hoping for failure is one of the reasons all their policies fail.  They don't even try to make something successful.


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## gipper (Jan 11, 2016)

william the wie said:


> gipper said:
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I misread your post.  I thought you were questioning why people are going to cash, rather than how many are going to cash.  Seems to me the average investor always gets burned in a down market and then misses out when the market goes up.


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## saveliberty (Jan 11, 2016)

I was out prior to the drop.  Bought in too early, but my recovery will be much faster than most.  All of the drops in the last several years have lasted only weeks or less.  It will be interesting to see what happens this time.

Cashing out now just guarantees a loss.


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## Luddly Neddite (Jan 11, 2016)

gipper said:


> william the wie said:
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This. ^^




william the wie said:


> A lot of people are getting into cash, I was wondering how many.




OP and others = what would be the point? Where would you put your money if you sold your stocks? How would it give you a bigger return than the stock market?

No way would I sell just so I could put it under my mattress.

One's decision should be based on only on projected return but also on your needs. I'm retired but if I were of a working age, I would be buying real estate hand over fist. Especially now. If a pub gets into the wh ...


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## william the wie (Jan 11, 2016)

saveliberty said:


> I was out prior to the drop.  Bought in too early, but my recovery will be much faster than most.  All of the drops in the last several years have lasted only weeks or less.  It will be interesting to see what happens this time.
> 
> Cashing out now just guarantees a loss.


true but this will be a very rocky road .

India is just now starting to put in the industrial infrastructure that China started putting in 30-35 years ago so there will be about a five year gap between China sorting out its mess and India going into overdrive on manufacturing.

China used the lost decades Japanese model for industrialization only the overseas Chinese added overdrive to the mix. It look like about $100 trillion in real estate writedowns alone: more housing than people as in a family house/apt per person if not worse and actually selling at a much higher multiple of average family income that anywhere else on the planet. No one is predicting when this will crash since Japan's bubble real estate still hasn't actually crashed yet.

The US and India are the only major economies raising rates hot money is going to add a lot of turbulence to the mix.

So we are in for a roller coaster.


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## Mac1958 (Jan 15, 2016)

william the wie said:


> A lot of people are getting into cash, I was wondering how many.


I'm an advisor, and I'm happier than a pig in slop about all this.  After a couple of years, FINALLY something is HAPPENING, there is SOMETHING we can DO.

We moved (mostly) out of stocks and into bonds, utilities and cash (TLT, XLU, IEF) and we're now watching areas that have taken a beating, such as energy, high yield bonds, gold, China and health care for bottoms.  When that happens, we get back in, in pieces.

But some of those could really be a while.
.


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## Rozman (Jan 15, 2016)

rdean said:


> I think the fact Republicans are always looking and hoping for failure is one of the reasons all their policies fail.  They don't even try to make something successful.



Let's see if I have this correct....
I am starting to get the feeling that you don't like Republicans.
And Democrats have been sent by the God's to rule us with wisdom and benevolence.

Am I close here?


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## william the wie (Jan 15, 2016)

Mac1958 said:


> william the wie said:
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> > A lot of people are getting into cash, I was wondering how many.
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With energy I'm looking at depletion rates of SWF reserves and pipeline construction. It look like ever shorter feast or famine cycles in the oil patch.


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## MarathonMike (Jan 16, 2016)

No, we've been mostly in cash and land for years so we won't pull out of the stocks we have. About half the stocks are DRIPs that we've also had for many years. If the market really takes a crap i.e. another 15% down, we will move more into stocks.


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## sjay (Jan 16, 2016)

MarathonMike said:


> No, we've been mostly in cash and land for years so we won't pull out of the stocks we have. About half the stocks are DRIPs that we've also had for many years. If the market really takes a crap i.e. another 15% down, we will move more into stocks.


 

What difference does it make whether your stocks are accumulated through Drips or not,either your investing is long term or short term.


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## MarathonMike (Jan 16, 2016)

sjay said:


> MarathonMike said:
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> > No, we've been mostly in cash and land for years so we won't pull out of the stocks we have. About half the stocks are DRIPs that we've also had for many years. If the market really takes a crap i.e. another 15% down, we will move more into stocks.
> ...



I was answering the OP and making a distinction between DRIPs which by definition are buy and hold instruments and stocks I buy and sell through my brokerage account. You can be a long term investor and make short term re-allocations, you don't have to be either/or.


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## william the wie (Jan 16, 2016)

MarathonMike said:


> No, we've been mostly in cash and land for years so we won't pull out of the stocks we have. About half the stocks are DRIPs that we've also had for many years. If the market really takes a crap i.e. another 15% down, we will move more into stocks.


Sounds good.


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