# Survey-Is anybody buying this market?



## BuckToothMoron (May 7, 2017)

I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%,  but likely more like 50%, fall within months.


----------



## SYTFE (May 7, 2017)

Why?


----------



## Pogo (May 7, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%,  but likely more like 50%, fall within months.



I don't.  This week I've gotta reinvest some cash-out I took from a stock sale that seemed to have played out.  Just musing over the best choice(s) on where to put it, right now it's just sitting cash.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 7, 2017)

SYTFE said:


> Why?


 Little to no growth, high PE ratios, huge influx of money into ETF's, very low VIX. 
The reality is that this 2017 stock market is one of the three most overvalued in U.S. history based upon price to sales, price to book value, price to GDP and Shiller’s price to earnings ratios. We can argue whether today’s stock market is the most expensive ever or the third most expensive, but it doesn’t matter, because when stocks get to this level (in 1929, 2000, 2007 and a couple of other lesser overvalued moments, such as 1973), one thing has ALWAYS happened (100% of the time) – investors’ portfolios have been clobbered, with 50% losses (at a minimum). To me, when the odds are 100% against me... those aren’t good odds.


----------



## SYTFE (May 7, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> SYTFE said:
> 
> 
> > Why?
> ...



There is SOME growth.  Look for some undervalued, wide-moat companies.  That's all I'm interested in because I only buy for the long term.  But I do agree that a large part of the market is overvalued.  But I'd consider even some of the outrageously priced stocks still slightly undervalued...many only _seem_ expensive.  Alphabet, Facebook, etc.

You're right though, we are in for a major correction eventually.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 7, 2017)

Pogo said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%,  but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
> ...



I am largely in cash, Gold (stocks,ETF's, and physical) and some long term speculative leap put options. Semiconductors are a favorite target now. Did ok on the latest IBM puts as they report yet another quarter of declining revenues. Semiconductors stocks look very vulnerable here.


----------



## DarkFury (May 7, 2017)

*What you are about to see is a market shift in leaders.*


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 7, 2017)

SYTFE said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > SYTFE said:
> ...



Problem now in this market  breadth is very narrow, volumes are not high on the up days, and we are starting to see sell offs at the end of trading.


DarkFury said:


> *What you are about to see is a market shift in leaders.*



I think your going to see the leaders follow the rest and grow weaker.


----------



## DarkFury (May 7, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> SYTFE said:
> 
> 
> > BuckToothMoron said:
> ...


With the new trade deal with China they need two million six hundred thousand tons of coal a month!
If the wall goes plus the pipelines steel will skyrocket.
Add the new military needs and steel and aluminum both go up.


----------



## yiostheoy (May 7, 2017)

Current stock market euphoria is based on the presumption that DJ Trump will be able to pass tax reform with a reduction to a 15% corp tax rate on the backs of the tax cheaters like Apple, Google, Walmart, Microsoft, etc.

If he gets Congress to pass the new law then the stock market euphoria is justified.

If not it will be another bubble that will burst sometime in 2017 -- probably October.

The stock markets always crash in October.


----------



## MarathonMike (May 7, 2017)

A little bit, focusing on strong stocks that pay a good dividend.


----------



## Luddly Neddite (May 7, 2017)

Pogo said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%,  but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
> ...



We closed on a house last Tues and thinking about where to put the money.

So far, a long trip is winning.

We lost a big chunk with the Bush crash and have dreaded what will come with the cheeto.


Sent from my iPad using USMessageBoard.com


----------



## Luddly Neddite (May 7, 2017)

MarathonMike said:


> A little bit, focusing on strong stocks that pay a good dividend.




Oh wow.

I'll go write that down.

[emoji849]


Sent from my iPad using USMessageBoard.com


----------



## Lewdog (May 7, 2017)

The only people that will make serious scratch right now are day traders.  Long term investors will have to invest in safe low yield stocks... and to be honest they would be better off investing that money in things like Gold, silver, or certain collectibles like very rare graded sports cards and graded first run/first appearance comic books.

Take for example this comic book which is the very first appearance of Harley Quinn... who is extremely hot and will only get hotter when the movie Gotham City Sirens comes out.






Here is an Ichiro Upper Deck autograph/jersey rookie card graded a Gem Mint 10.  He recently became a 3,000 hit MLB player and if you add his hits from Japan with the ones in MLB he has more professional hits than Pete Rose.  He is a lock MLB Hall of Famer and his cards go up a lot because of his popularity in the U.S. and in Japan.

2001 SPx Upper Deck Ichiro Suzuki RC Rookie Jersey Auto PSA 10   | eBay


----------



## Geaux4it (May 7, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%,  but likely more like 50%, fall within months.



I'm up 5% since Jan and that was being conservative

-Geaux


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 7, 2017)

Luddly Neddite said:


> Pogo said:
> 
> 
> > BuckToothMoron said:
> ...



Do yourself a favor. When it comes to investing, leave your politics out. Presidents rarely have Anything  to do with the ultimate performance of the stock market. The last 8 years have surged mostly because of Fed policies of QE and low interest rates. With very little real growth, investors settled into stocks because of the TINA effect.


----------



## MarathonMike (May 7, 2017)

Luddly Neddite said:


> MarathonMike said:
> 
> 
> > A little bit, focusing on strong stocks that pay a good dividend.
> ...





Luddly Neddite said:


> Pogo said:
> 
> 
> > BuckToothMoron said:
> ...


I'll bet you will get much better ROI on buying solid dividend stocks than on a long trip which has an ROI of zero.


----------



## william the wie (May 8, 2017)

Since I write covered options on undervalued issues why should I care? This is not as good as when DRIPs were offering 5% off market on shares purchased with money sent to the treasury or reinvested dividend income but 35% annualized returns make me happy


----------



## Mac1958 (May 8, 2017)

There was an investor study done by DALBAR a couple of years back that showed the average "active" investor had "earned" a 3.49% return over the last 20 years.

Invest smart (according to your time frame, risk tolerance and long term goals), don't try to time the market, don't get emotional, dollar cost average.

Next.
.


----------



## Marion Morrison (May 8, 2017)

Pogo said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%,  but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
> ...



I know what a good one would be, but I'm not telling Pogo.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 8, 2017)

william the wie said:


> Since I write covered options on undervalued issues why should I care? This is not as good as when DRIPs were offering 5% off market on shares purchased with money sent to the treasury or reinvested dividend income but 35% annualized returns make me happy



That's a nice trading strategy, but hardly appropriate or feasible  with an entire portfolio.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 8, 2017)

Mac1958 said:


> There was an investor study done by DALBAR a couple of years back that showed the average "active" investor had "earned" a 3.49% return over the last 20 years.
> 
> Invest smart (according to your time frame, risk tolerance and long term goals), don't try to time the market, don't get emotional, dollar cost average.
> 
> ...



No kidding, well that is pretty useless information. Considering the last 20 years the DOW is up like 400% and the NASDAQ almost 500%. So by not timing the market as you suggest, you've have essential stayed flat with inflation. Btw- what exactly does invest smart mean? Does it mean invest so you barely kept up with inflation? 

NEXT


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 8, 2017)

Lewdog said:


> The only people that will make serious scratch right now are day traders.  Long term investors will have to invest in safe low yield stocks... and to be honest they would be better off investing that money in things like Gold, silver, or certain collectibles like very rare graded sports cards and graded first run/first appearance comic books.
> 
> Take for example this comic book which is the very first appearance of Harley Quinn... who is extremely hot and will only get hotter when the movie Gotham City Sirens comes out.
> 
> ...



I agree with precious metals is a safe place to be right now. When the market sentiment changes from this euphoria to fear, everybody will head for AU/AG.


----------



## Mac1958 (May 8, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > There was an investor study done by DALBAR a couple of years back that showed the average "active" investor had "earned" a 3.49% return over the last 20 years.
> ...


In one sentence you say the Dow is up 400% in 20 years, then in the next sentence you say that by not timing the market you have stayed flat with inflation.

Which is it?

I'm a financial advisor, CFP, ChFC, CLU.  Learning how to invest wisely just ain't that tough.  The internet is your friend.
.


----------



## Pogo (May 8, 2017)

Marion Morrison said:


> Pogo said:
> 
> 
> > BuckToothMoron said:
> ...



Yeah I already have ten good ones.  Look on the ticker for "X".


----------



## Pogo (May 8, 2017)

MarathonMike said:


> Luddly Neddite said:
> 
> 
> > MarathonMike said:
> ...



Wrong.  It has an ROI that can't be represented by a number.
Those do exist yanno.  I'm still collecting interest on mine forty, fifty years later.  You gotta feed the _other _hemisphere of the brain.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 8, 2017)

Mac1958 said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...



I'm referring to your statistic that average investor is up 3.5 % over a period where the market has performed much better. So apparently not timing the market, you know buying at tops and selling at bottoms hasn't worked out to well for the average investor, has it. 

I respect you as a financial advisor, but that does not make you a stock professional. I noticed you cited all the cliches, invest smart, risk tolerance, long term goals, etc, but didn't address the thread topic. Look, I'm not a client, so step outside of your professional comfort zone and let us know what you think of this stock market at this level.


----------



## Mac1958 (May 8, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > BuckToothMoron said:
> ...


My point was that active investing, which almost always involves timing of some sort, doesn't work for most people.  It's just not a good idea, as fun and sexy and exciting as it may be.  All those active investors could have saved a great deal of money, time and grief just investing in an S&P 500 index fund and getting on with their lives.

The cliches became cliches because they're true, and they work.  I've seen it all, and it always just comes back to the basics. People are chasing return all the time and usually end up getting burned.

Want an aggressive portfolio that you can just leave alone and will probably beat the market over the next 20 years?  Here:

60% VOO
25% VO
10% VWO
5%  VEA

Dollar cost average in monthly and you're good to go.  Until about age 50-55, when you'll want to start blending in some bonds.
.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 8, 2017)

Mac1958 said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...



My apology, I misunderstood your reference to 3.5% return. Since you mentioned it, I thought you were citing it as a reasonable goal. 

But back to the thread topic-
 do you believe this market is fairly valued and investor sentiment is reasonable,

Or do you think it is overvalued and sentiment is much too bullish?


----------



## Mac1958 (May 8, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > BuckToothMoron said:
> ...


Well, yes, it's overvalued, although sentiment is usually wrong and irrelevant.  The "experts" have been "predicting" a "pullback" since February of last year, and the market is up around 28% since then.  That's why you just can't time the market.

I'd love to see a correction of 18%, 20%.  It'll happen, I just can't tell ya when.  The fact that the market is indeed overvalued doesn't mean it doesn't have another 30% in it.

And look at the term "over-*valued*".   That's usually based on PE.  If there is some decent earnings growth, the market could stay where it is, or even grow, and no longer be over-valued.
.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 8, 2017)

Mac1958 said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...



It's starting to feel like a top to me. The breadth and volume has narrowed,  we have been on a tear since 2009 with out a significant correction, GDP growth continues to be anemic. I think this market has run because of MASSIVE QE  and surprised rates. Investors have not had any other place to put their money. CapX spending is very low, as companies would rather spend cash buying their own stock instead of expansion. We have high marge debt, the VIX is near the same level it was before the 2007-08 crash.

The emergence of ETF's as a favorite could also make a downturn more explosive since they are always full invested. If we get a downturn and sentiment turns bearish, people start selling their ETF's which leads to more selling. I think we will get a violent reaction.

Even if the market runs another 20-30%, it will all be given back and more IMO. I'm waiting to buy until the everybody sells.


----------



## Mac1958 (May 8, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > BuckToothMoron said:
> ...


I can see all of that, but remember that as you wait, if the market keeps climbing, you will have wasted that growth even if you do time things perfectly in the future.  I just ain't smart enough to do that.


.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 8, 2017)

Mac1958 said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...



No, I disagree. If you think a correction or maybe a crash of 30-40% is inevitable within a year, as I do, you're better off waiting for it, or at the very least keeping a significant of cash available to buy at lower prices.


----------



## Mac1958 (May 8, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > BuckToothMoron said:
> ...


Well, that's certainly your call.  My crystal ball isn't quite as clear as yours.
.


----------



## Luddly Neddite (May 8, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> Luddly Neddite said:
> 
> 
> > Pogo said:
> ...



It's simply fact that the stock market dipped at that time and we lost a good size chunk. 



Sent from my iPad using USMessageBoard.com


----------



## Luddly Neddite (May 8, 2017)

MarathonMike said:


> Luddly Neddite said:
> 
> 
> > MarathonMike said:
> ...



Naw ... Not at our age.

If I were looking at long term, my priorities would be different but there's no reason to plan for oh, say, 20 years from now.  Nor am I concerned about what we leave for our son. Our lake home is paid for and we'll live here until we die. It's worth a bundle now and will be worth a lot more in the future. Our son is a scientist, is already pretty well off.

It's quite a lot of money (from the house sale) but we don't have debt, don't need to buy any big ticket items, can't make $ from a savings account, so for now, it can sit.


Sent from my iPad using USMessageBoard.com


----------



## MarathonMike (May 9, 2017)

Luddly Neddite said:


> MarathonMike said:
> 
> 
> > Luddly Neddite said:
> ...


Nothing wrong with that. We're still majority cash and real estate but moving a few percent back into stocks.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 9, 2017)

MarathonMike said:


> Luddly Neddite said:
> 
> 
> > MarathonMike said:
> ...



Really? You're moving into stocks now. With the market at all time high, no significant correction in 7 years, you decide now is the time to move back into stocks. Interesting. I started selling stocks 3 years ago, after going almost fully invested in 2008-09. Got killed in 2000. Came out of 2007-08 unscathed because of lessons learned in 2000. Now I patiently wait for what will be the biggest buyin opportunity in decades.


----------



## MarathonMike (May 9, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> MarathonMike said:
> 
> 
> > Luddly Neddite said:
> ...


I'm always effectively buying the market since much of my portfolio is in DRPs. After Trump won I've put 5% that was in cash into a few good dividend stocks. But overall stocks are less than half of the portfolio.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 9, 2017)

MarathonMike said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > MarathonMike said:
> ...


 
Dividend stocks have done well in this low interest environment.


----------



## Never3ndr (May 9, 2017)

Mac1958 said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...


I agree that learning to invest wisely isn't too tough.  I'd also say that if you have been in the market, you should have far outstripped inflation.

With that being said, don't throw around your job title, "Financial Advisor" and your certifications and act like you aren't much more than a salesperson.  You and I both know what that really means.  You want to sound like you know what you are talking about in investing, the only certification that really lends you some weight is the CFA.  All the other ones may give you some knowledge on asset management or portfolio weights, but don't really show you know how to break down and analyze the actual value of a company and, therefore, make somewhat credible investment recommendations.


----------



## Mac1958 (May 10, 2017)

Never3ndr said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > BuckToothMoron said:
> ...


CFP, not CFA.

You're right, it doesn't. You really shouldn't take anything I say for granted.

If I actually say something you feel is incorrect, say so.  Or you can just sit back and attack out of ignorance, whichever.
.


----------



## sakinago (May 10, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%,  but likely more like 50%, fall within months.



No sir, I feel like that's where all the inflation is appearing from that 6 trillion in QE. Buy precious metals, maybe a rental property, and think about bitcoin. I don't have a lot in bitcoin, but I've made my accounts available to be transferred to bitcoin at the drop of the hat.


----------



## sakinago (May 10, 2017)

Pogo said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%,  but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
> ...



Rental property, or precious metals, they aren't sexy, but if you don't trust this market pogo, that would be my suggestion


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 10, 2017)

Mac1958 said:


> Never3ndr said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...



That seemed like a rather gratuitous assault, and I disagree. The fact that the guy has certifications and works in the investment field puts him ahead of 90% of the numbskulls on this forum.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 10, 2017)

sakinago said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > I'm curious how investors here feel about this stock market. Personally, I think it is a ticking time bomb, and expect a minimum of 30%,  but likely more like 50%, fall within months.
> ...



Yep, you and I are in agreement on that. Although I think RE could be vulnerable if the FED is forced to push rates. Bitcoin is an interesting notion. I need to look into it more. With pot legal here in Colorado, I have always wondered why the industry has not embraced it as a fiat since they can't access banking services. Right now, all the business they do is in cash, they can't accept credit cards, debits or checks.


----------



## sakinago (May 10, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> sakinago said:
> 
> 
> > BuckToothMoron said:
> ...



Yea definitely look into it, I don't see it as a money making investment necessarily (even though it has been steadily climbing in value), but more as a way to have control of my money, rather than a bank.


----------



## Pogo (May 10, 2017)

sakinago said:


> Pogo said:
> 
> 
> > BuckToothMoron said:
> ...



I don't distrust this market.  It's just a question of where to reinvest but it will go into stocks, which I'm not heavy in anyway.

I have a rental property but really only because the housing market there is so dead.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 10, 2017)

Pogo said:


> sakinago said:
> 
> 
> > Pogo said:
> ...



If you are set on putting money into this bloated market, I'd suggest avoiding the ETF's, and stick to highly managed Mutuals, perhaps mix in a hedge, they have gotten the shit kicked out of them in this exuberant market.


----------



## Pogo (May 10, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> Pogo said:
> 
> 
> > sakinago said:
> ...



This isn't 'putting money in' -- this is reinvesting cash liquidated from stock I sold.  Just recycling from one stock to (an)other(s).

Actually a mutual is one of the suggestions my FA gave me.  The other two are Starbucks and Shell Oil.


----------



## Never3ndr (May 12, 2017)

Mac1958 said:


> Never3ndr said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...


Right...the CFA is not the CFP I'm glad you are following.  They are two different certifications, the important one, regarding investing (CFA), which you don't have.  However, to be fair, to get the CFA you actually have to be involved in investing or some sort of financing activities...it is something outside the realm of sales.  So, you don't have the opportunity to attain it.

I did point out something you said that was incorrect...which was that we should trust a salesperson for financial advice.  That was the entire point of that post.


----------



## Mac1958 (May 12, 2017)

Never3ndr said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > Never3ndr said:
> ...


Of course, I didn't say that.

Now that I know how dishonest you are, and now that I know you're so wiling to attack out of abject ignorance, there's no reason to continue.
.


----------



## Never3ndr (May 12, 2017)

BuckToothMoron said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > Never3ndr said:
> ...


He doesn't work in the investment field.  He works in the field of sales.  I interned at a a place probably similar to the one he works at in college.  All it is is sales, you trying to get somebody to buy some insurance or your investment packages. They reward you for attaining certifications and, admittedly, you can rake in a lot of money if you get enough clients to run your own practice.  However, it ignores the fact that the bulk of his work is done trying to get ppl to buy what he's selling.  To my knowledge, a lot of them don't even run the numbers on the financial tools they are suggesting they sell...they send them off for review and relay to the client whatever investment package their analysts suggest is best.  Of course, this guy's firm may operate differently from the one I interned at.

To be fair, a lot of this was my dissatisfaction with that world.  However, a lot of it was based on these sales people suckering people in with certifications and claims of knowledge when the fact of the matter is that they couldn't value a company if their lives depended on it.  The best thing you can ask from these guys is maybe you asset allocation percentages and what types of insurance you should buy.  And that is just simply going to be based off of historical rates and what their analysts hand them.  They aren't going to have a working knowledge of investments.


----------



## Mac1958 (May 12, 2017)

Never3ndr said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...


Wow, bitter.  That explains this.

Haven't had to do any marketing in years, all business is referral and repeat.  That's what happens when you serve your clients well, when you know what you're doing.

But now I understand the behavior.  Whatever makes you feel a little better.

And gosh, I can't think of ANY other professionals who have to sell the services they perform.

Can you?


.


----------



## william the wie (May 14, 2017)

BuckToothMoron 

the three S&P indices include 1500 issues and so far as I know they all have options and are well traded because just about everybody has an ETF on these issues. I use a simple screen strategy that would result in 135 picks at the limit if I could and did take things that far but why would I do that? The big market risks are:

Trumpcare could cause mass migration of the poor to the blue wall.

Tax reform which will likely lead to migration of the wealthy to the red edge.

The ballot commission which is likely to shrink the turnout of fraudulent voters in federal elections.

In the mean time going with the most undervalued 9% of the most heavily trade issues strikes me as safe.


----------



## BuckToothMoron (May 15, 2017)

william the wie said:


> BuckToothMoron
> 
> the three S&P indices include 1500 issues and so far as I know they all have options and are well traded because just about everybody has an ETF on these issues. I use a simple screen strategy that would result in 135 picks at the limit if I could and did take things that far but why would I do that? The big market risks are:
> 
> ...





william the wie said:


> BuckToothMoron
> 
> the three S&P indices include 1500 issues and so far as I know they all have options and are well traded because just about everybody has an ETF on these issues. I use a simple screen strategy that would result in 135 picks at the limit if I could and did take things that far but why would I do that? The big market risks are:
> 
> ...



Well I hope your screen strategy works for you, but make no mistake about, when the market sells off, everything will sell off except perhaps gold stocks and other safe haven stocks.


----------



## william the wie (May 15, 2017)

Overall in any decent time period over say three years income producing stocks out perform growth stocks. Commodore still holds the record for fasting growing computer company ever.


----------

