# The Stock Market Bubble



## Publius1787

*Do we have a Stock Market Bubble About to Pop??*


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## TheOldSchool

I'm pretty sure the imaginary digital numbers in the stock market computer are doing fine.


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## editec

I'd say that I think ALL PRICING is a bubble about to pop if I didn't understand that:

The market can be wrong MUCH  longer than I can remain solvent.​
I started thinking that real estate was becoming a BUBBLE back in the late 70s.

It WAS a bubble, too.  The price of real estate was already out of line with the incomes people were making.

That BUBBLE lasted roughly 40 years!

To be perefectly honest, I think the RE price corrections we had around 2006 are STILL out of line with incomes.

Now as to the stock market?

What does the PE ratio tell us?

I haven't looked but I SUSPECT that the prices are too high given the potential earnings.

But it looks to me like for those with money to invest, _its the only game in town._

Savings pay shit, bonds pay shit, gold and silver are tarnished and commodities are too damned scarey for most investors.


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## KissMy

*Sell in May and Go Away!*

China just blew up the worlds biggest property bubble. Chinese Government is imposing a new 20 percent tax on profits from housing sales of second home. Chinese people are rapidly selling homes ahead of the tax. Divorce filings shot up across China after rumors spread that one way to avoid the new 20 percent tax on profits from housing sales was to separate from a spouse, at least on paper.

NYT: In China, Checklist for a Home Seller: First, Get a Divorce

All the rush to sell second homes in China is crashing the housing market. This has crashed the commodities market globally. Government's can't print enough money to stop the deflationary spiral that is now taking hold. Commodities & Stocks are imploding.


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## editec

KissMy said:


> *Sell in May and Go Away!*
> 
> China just blew up the worlds biggest property bubble. Chinese Government is imposing a new 20 percent tax on profits from housing sales of second home. Chinese people are rapidly selling homes ahead of the tax. Divorce filings shot up across China after rumors spread that one way to avoid the new 20 percent tax on profits from housing sales was to separate from a spouse, at least on paper.
> 
> NYT: In China, Checklist for a Home Seller: First, Get a Divorce
> 
> All the rush to sell second homes in China is crashing the housing market. This has crashed the commodities market globally. Government's can't print enough money to stop the deflationary spiral that is now taking hold. Commodities & Stocks are imploding.



Interesting, KissMy...thanks for posting this.

I haven't been paying much attention to the goings on in China, but I can certainly see how what's happening in China is going to effect the world's economy.

But I wonder where the Chinese are going to stash those profits they've made on RE?

they don't really have the same kind of equity market we have, and the average Chinese investor cannot get their cash out of China like we here in the West can invest in other nations.

Or am I missing something important about the state of affairs in China as it related to the "average" Chinese investor?

Real questions above, mate, I am seeking to tap into your base of knowledge here.


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## KissMy

editec said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> *Sell in May and Go Away!*
> 
> China just blew up the worlds biggest property bubble. Chinese Government is imposing a new 20 percent tax on profits from housing sales of second home. Chinese people are rapidly selling homes ahead of the tax. Divorce filings shot up across China after rumors spread that one way to avoid the new 20 percent tax on profits from housing sales was to separate from a spouse, at least on paper.
> 
> NYT: In China, Checklist for a Home Seller: First, Get a Divorce
> 
> All the rush to sell second homes in China is crashing the housing market. This has crashed the commodities market globally. Government's can't print enough money to stop the deflationary spiral that is now taking hold. Commodities & Stocks are imploding.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting, KissMy...thanks for posting this.
> 
> I haven't been paying much attention to the goings on in China, but I can certainly see how what's happening in China is going to effect the world's economy.
> 
> But I wonder where the Chinese are going to stash those profits they've made on RE?
> 
> they don't really have the same kind of equity market we have, and the average Chinese investor cannot get their cash out of China like we here in the West can invest in other nations.
> 
> Or am I missing something important about the state of affairs in China as it related to the "average" Chinese investor?
> 
> Real questions above, mate, I am seeking to tap into your base of knowledge here.
Click to expand...


I don't know enough about China to answer those questions. Toro may know something.

I assume they do like we did. People sell & put their money into bonds & bank savings accounts. Their currency velocity slows so currency value rises while bond yields & interest rates tank. Classic Deflation = Cash is King!


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## william the wie

When possible the Chinese get their money into the US, Canada or Australia for bug out boogie time.


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## Mr. H.

This morning I moved half my IRA holdings from mutuals to cash. 
Last time I did this was in '07. Once the market bottomed, I got back in. 
No telling what's going to happen but I feel a little more secure now.


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## iamwhatiseem

editec is right...identifying the bubble is obvious. Saying when it will pop is a whooooole other issue.
Are we currently in a bubble? Yes, the mother of all bubbles. Propped up by your tax dollars.
Is this bubble about to pop? No. I have little doubt we will see 16000 before it does.
Will there be hell to pay when it does pop? Yes, enough so that it will change this country for many years to come.


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## B. Kidd

I just cashed out the other day. Sell high, buy low my mantra. Needed a hefty down payment for a house I'm buying. It actually felt good. Market may go a lil' higher, but if it hits 15,500 or higher, I'll eat fatso Kim Kardishians' panties (not really).


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## william the wie

Well market cap is 202% of GDP, in order to have true reversion to the mean the DJIA would have to hit at least 3500 and establish a bottom. I'm sticking to LEAP index puts because I do not predict tops or bottoms.


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## AmazonTania

iamwhatiseem said:


> editec is right...identifying the bubble is obvious. Saying when it will pop is a whooooole other issue.



Wasn't that obvious to those in 2004 - 2007.


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## iamwhatiseem

AmazonTania said:


> iamwhatiseem said:
> 
> 
> 
> editec is right...identifying the bubble is obvious. Saying when it will pop is a whooooole other issue.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wasn't that obvious to those in 2004 - 2007.
Click to expand...


Absolutely. Equally obvious that there was a bubble then as now, however just like then - Wall Street can maintain a farce for many months - even years as long as our government has no issue with propping it up with taxpayer money,
 Take away the $85,000,000,000 a month the gubbmint is providing now - the market would collapse in a day.


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## OohPooPahDoo

B. Kidd said:


> . Sell high, buy low my mantra.



Wow. What an innovative investment strategy.


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## william the wie

I expect 1700 or higher for the S&P prior to the correction.


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## AmazonTania

iamwhatiseem said:


> Absolutely. Equally obvious that there was a bubble then as now, however just like then - Wall Street can maintain a farce for many months - even years as long as our government has no issue with propping it up with taxpayer money,
> Take away the $85,000,000,000 a month the gubbmint is providing now - the market would collapse in a day.



Well I won't disagree that the financial community is rather clueless, but this is due to the mass optimism among the ranks. Most believe that the market wasn't going to crash, while others believed that the market could NEVER crash.


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## iamwhatiseem

AmazonTania said:


> iamwhatiseem said:
> 
> 
> 
> Absolutely. Equally obvious that there was a bubble then as now, however just like then - Wall Street can maintain a farce for many months - even years as long as our government has no issue with propping it up with taxpayer money,
> Take away the $85,000,000,000 a month the gubbmint is providing now - the market would collapse in a day.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Well I won't disagree that the financial community is rather clueless, but this is due to the mass optimism among the ranks.* Most believe that the market wasn't going to crash, while others believed that the market could NEVER crash.*
Click to expand...


Which tells you everything. (bold text)
Same reason many people were banking on the mortgage bubble to rise and rise forever...because the government was using taxpayer dollars to subsidize the mortgage industry buy buying up losses. (Exact same thing they are doing today)
So you had a market based on false demand. 
Today - we have a market based on false demand. As I have said here 1000 times, if Burnbanke announced today the FED was ceasing the $85 billion-a-month toxic buyouts and bond buying - this 140000+ market would drop 5000 in a week. Inarguable.


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## editec

I heard an extremely interesting lecture by the guy who controls YALES's portfolio.

He systematically went though the various strategies that large portfolios can use and highlighted under what circumstances each approach worked best under.

He did not believe in market timing or  contrarianism but instead invested long range because YALES perspective IS as an investor with a long view.  

He alos seemed to think that_ merely keeping up with inflation is a BIG WIN_ for a large institutional investor over a long period of time.

He also suggested  that for different investors different  approaches may work for a while.

I'm sorry I cannot offer a better explanation but the lecture was about an hour long.

Basically I walked away from the lecture knowing better what I intuited thought all along.

*The best investment strategy depends entirely on the investor himself, and no approach works in every economic circumstance*

He ALSO believed that for most small investors there WAS NO TRULY good way to invest in the market.

Yes, people do it, and some of them make money, true.  If you are one of those_ good luck for you_.  Hope it lasts

But most small investors have about as much control over their investment fate as dust in the wind has control over its fate.

I'm inclined to think he's right about that.

I doubly inclined to think that he'd be right_ even if the markets were not manipulated by insiders _(which I am convinced they are)


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## KissMy

Epoch Times: China Bubble Appears Close to Bursting

CBS Marketwatch: China manufacturing data show weaker growth.

Bloomberg: Leading Index&#8217;s Drop Points to Slower U.S. Growth

24/7 Wall St.: Sell in May and Go Away 2013, Earnings Season Scorecard - "Corporate revenues are coming in soft, to the point that the concerns cannot just be ignored. These soft revenue reports are even after many analysts had lowered sales expectations ahead of and during earnings season."

NYT: More Forceful Fed Stands by Stimulus 



> The Fed emphasized that it was ready to increase or decrease its efforts to spur growth and reduce unemployment as necessary, a more balanced position than it took earlier in the year, reflecting the reality that a strong winter has once again yielded to a disappointing spring.
> 
> It was the first time that the Fed had explicitly mentioned the possibility of doing more in a policy statement, although officials, including the Fed&#8217;s chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, have made the point repeatedly in public remarks.
> 
> Analysts disagreed about the central bank&#8217;s intent. Some saw it as a signal that the Fed&#8217;s next move could be an expansion of its stimulus...
> 
> It added, however, that federal spending cuts were &#8220;restraining economic growth,&#8221; an implicit critique of the rest of the government.
> 
> That language was stronger than the Fed had used in previous assessments of the economic impact of fiscal policy. Fed officials have repeatedly expressed frustration that fiscal policy is working at cross-purposes with their own monetary policy. The statement also noted that the pace of inflation had slackened, a potential sign of economic weakness.


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## iamwhatiseem

editec said:


> ....He ALSO believed that for most *small* investors there WAS NO TRULY good way to invest in the market....
> But most small investors have about as much control over their investment fate as dust in the wind has control over its fate.


   (My edits)
  Indeed. For retail investors the market is un-tradable. 401ks, even with diminishing company matches, is an ENORMOUS risk and an extremely poor retirement strategy considering the bubble mentality of the market manipulators. It is like playing Russian roulette with your retirement...if you retire on the upside - good for you - on a market correction - boy are you screwed. Of course no market adviser is going to tell you that, 401ks represent $trillions of "free money" entering the markets where the owner of that money is clueless in what it is invested in right or wrong...it is a windfall for the markets that would have serious-serious ramifications if everyone suddenly pulled out all at once. 
  So if a person is banking on 401k investments as their chief retirement plan - you might do great, or you might have to have a couple paper routes in order to eat.


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## auditor0007

editec said:


> I'd say that I think ALL PRICING is a bubble about to pop if I didn't understand that:
> 
> The market can be wrong MUCH  longer than I can remain solvent.​
> I started thinking that real estate was becoming a BUBBLE back in the late 70s.
> 
> It WAS a bubble, too.  The price of real estate was already out of line with the incomes people were making.
> 
> That BUBBLE lasted roughly 40 years!
> 
> To be perefectly honest, I think the RE price corrections we had around 2006 are STILL out of line with incomes.
> 
> Now as to the stock market?
> 
> What does the PE ratio tell us?
> 
> I haven't looked but I SUSPECT that the prices are too high given the potential earnings.
> 
> But it looks to me like for those with money to invest, _its the only game in town._
> 
> Savings pay shit, bonds pay shit, gold and silver are tarnished and commodities are too damned scarey for most investors.



Companies are making money hand over fist and have large amounts of cash available for expansion.  While I can understand a certain amount of apprehension, I think it is misplaced.  I see the stock market and economy taking off big time very soon.  By 2016, things will be picking up, and by 2020 we will be in a huge economic boom period, and none of it has to do with politics.  It won't matter what happens politically in 2016.


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## iamwhatiseem

auditor0007 said:


> editec said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'd say that I think ALL PRICING is a bubble about to pop if I didn't understand that:
> 
> The market can be wrong MUCH  longer than I can remain solvent.​
> I started thinking that real estate was becoming a BUBBLE back in the late 70s.
> 
> It WAS a bubble, too.  The price of real estate was already out of line with the incomes people were making.
> 
> That BUBBLE lasted roughly 40 years!
> 
> To be perefectly honest, I think the RE price corrections we had around 2006 are STILL out of line with incomes.
> 
> Now as to the stock market?
> 
> What does the PE ratio tell us?
> 
> I haven't looked but I SUSPECT that the prices are too high given the potential earnings.
> 
> But it looks to me like for those with money to invest, _its the only game in town._
> 
> Savings pay shit, bonds pay shit, gold and silver are tarnished and commodities are too damned scarey for most investors.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Companies are making money hand over fist and have large amounts of cash available for expansion.  While I can understand a certain amount of apprehension, I think it is misplaced.  I see the stock market and economy taking off big time very soon.  By 2016, things will be picking up, and by 2020 we will be in a huge economic boom period, and none of it has to do with politics.  It won't matter what happens politically in 2016.
Click to expand...


No.
Companies are not making money hands over fist - only large corporations are.
Small businesses are severely suffering - most just getting by. 
If there was "hand over fist" money to be made out there - then you wouldn't see the empty storefronts everywhere you go.


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## editec

Mr. H. said:


> This morning I moved half my IRA holdings from mutuals to cash.
> Last time I did this was in '07. Once the market bottomed, I got back in.
> No telling what's going to happen but I feel a little more secure now.



Remember one of the axioms of investing

It is far better to be right to soon, than right too late.​


----------



## editec

auditor0007 said:


> editec said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'd say that I think ALL PRICING is a bubble about to pop if I didn't understand that:
> 
> The market can be wrong MUCH  longer than I can remain solvent.​
> I started thinking that real estate was becoming a BUBBLE back in the late 70s.
> 
> It WAS a bubble, too.  The price of real estate was already out of line with the incomes people were making.
> 
> That BUBBLE lasted roughly 40 years!
> 
> To be perefectly honest, I think the RE price corrections we had around 2006 are STILL out of line with incomes.
> 
> Now as to the stock market?
> 
> What does the PE ratio tell us?
> 
> I haven't looked but I SUSPECT that the prices are too high given the potential earnings.
> 
> But it looks to me like for those with money to invest, _its the only game in town._
> 
> Savings pay shit, bonds pay shit, gold and silver are tarnished and commodities are too damned scarey for most investors.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Companies are making money hand over fist and have large amounts of cash available for expansion.  While I can understand a certain amount of apprehension, I think it is misplaced.  I see the stock market and economy taking off big time very soon.  By 2016, things will be picking up, and by 2020 we will be in a huge economic boom period, and none of it has to do with politics.  It won't matter what happens politically in 2016.
Click to expand...


First, let me say I hope you are right and I am completely wrong.

Yes the corporations have trillions in the bank, much of it (like Apple) offshored so that there are no tax consequences unless they repatriate it.

So, if you are correct and the economies are on the mend then, the inbternational corporations will start reinvesting this money.

The question is  WHERE WILL THEY INVEST IT?

In America?

One can only hope.


----------



## Mr. H.

editec said:


> Mr. H. said:
> 
> 
> 
> This morning I moved half my IRA holdings from mutuals to cash.
> Last time I did this was in '07. Once the market bottomed, I got back in.
> No telling what's going to happen but I feel a little more secure now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Remember one of the axioms of investing
> 
> It is far better to be right to soon, than right too late.​
Click to expand...


I know I'm missing out on the positive movements, and I knew this could happen. But I'm more comfortable with this position right now. 

Plus, the rises in the crude markets ain't hurting.


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## TakeAStepBack

iamwhatiseem said:


> editec is right...identifying the bubble is obvious. Saying when it will pop is a whooooole other issue.
> Are we currently in a bubble? Yes, the mother of all bubbles. Propped up by your tax dollars.
> Is this bubble about to pop? No. I have little doubt we will see 16000 before it does.
> Will there be hell to pay when it does pop? Yes, enough so that it will change this country for many years to come.



It will pop once the federal reserve increases interest rates. They will likely attempt to incrementally do that to slide us easily into a pop, rather than a fast jump off the cliff like 2007.


----------



## auditor0007

iamwhatiseem said:


> auditor0007 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> editec said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'd say that I think ALL PRICING is a bubble about to pop if I didn't understand that:
> 
> The market can be wrong MUCH  longer than I can remain solvent.​
> I started thinking that real estate was becoming a BUBBLE back in the late 70s.
> 
> It WAS a bubble, too.  The price of real estate was already out of line with the incomes people were making.
> 
> That BUBBLE lasted roughly 40 years!
> 
> To be perefectly honest, I think the RE price corrections we had around 2006 are STILL out of line with incomes.
> 
> Now as to the stock market?
> 
> What does the PE ratio tell us?
> 
> I haven't looked but I SUSPECT that the prices are too high given the potential earnings.
> 
> But it looks to me like for those with money to invest, _its the only game in town._
> 
> Savings pay shit, bonds pay shit, gold and silver are tarnished and commodities are too damned scarey for most investors.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Companies are making money hand over fist and have large amounts of cash available for expansion.  While I can understand a certain amount of apprehension, I think it is misplaced.  I see the stock market and economy taking off big time very soon.  By 2016, things will be picking up, and by 2020 we will be in a huge economic boom period, and none of it has to do with politics.  It won't matter what happens politically in 2016.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> No.
> Companies are not making money hands over fist - only large corporations are.
> Small businesses are severely suffering - most just getting by.
> If there was "hand over fist" money to be made out there - then you wouldn't see the empty storefronts everywhere you go.
Click to expand...


I drove by the local Mr. Freeze last night.  At 9:00 PM there were over 100 people standing in line for ice cream.  Everyone I'm talking to is telling me their businesses are starting to pick up.  It's slow and it doesn't include every single business,  but we are on the cusp of something pretty big.


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## auditor0007

editec said:


> auditor0007 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> editec said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'd say that I think ALL PRICING is a bubble about to pop if I didn't understand that:
> 
> The market can be wrong MUCH  longer than I can remain solvent.​
> I started thinking that real estate was becoming a BUBBLE back in the late 70s.
> 
> It WAS a bubble, too.  The price of real estate was already out of line with the incomes people were making.
> 
> That BUBBLE lasted roughly 40 years!
> 
> To be perefectly honest, I think the RE price corrections we had around 2006 are STILL out of line with incomes.
> 
> Now as to the stock market?
> 
> What does the PE ratio tell us?
> 
> I haven't looked but I SUSPECT that the prices are too high given the potential earnings.
> 
> But it looks to me like for those with money to invest, _its the only game in town._
> 
> Savings pay shit, bonds pay shit, gold and silver are tarnished and commodities are too damned scarey for most investors.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Companies are making money hand over fist and have large amounts of cash available for expansion.  While I can understand a certain amount of apprehension, I think it is misplaced.  I see the stock market and economy taking off big time very soon.  By 2016, things will be picking up, and by 2020 we will be in a huge economic boom period, and none of it has to do with politics.  It won't matter what happens politically in 2016.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> First, let me say I hope you are right and I am completely wrong.
> 
> Yes the corporations have trillions in the bank, much of it (like Apple) offshored so that there are no tax consequences unless they repatriate it.
> 
> So, if you are correct and the economies are on the mend then, the inbternational corporations will start reinvesting this money.
> 
> The question is  WHERE WILL THEY INVEST IT?
> 
> In America?
> 
> One can only hope.
Click to expand...


Americans have been paying down debt, even in the bad economy.  Some of that payment has actually been absorbed by banks as homes were foreclosed on.  Either way, personal debt is falling, and it is falling most among young people.  We have over 75 million people between the age of 20 and 35, most of whom have not yet married or started their own families.  Even with a bad economy, at some point, all those kids who have held off moving on with their lives will do so, and it's already starting to happen.  

My girlfriend's oldest son is getting married this year.  He is 27.  Her oldest daughter has one year left in college.  She is in nursing.  Her youngest daughter is finishing her first year and is going into elementary education.  Both girls will have little problem finding employment.  Positions in education have been hard to come by the last few years because school districts have been forced to cut funding, but that will change as older teacher's retire and young people start having more kids.  Education is a great field to think about going into if you are just starting college right now.

Young people are going to drive the boom.  It's just a matter of time.


----------



## auditor0007

TakeAStepBack said:


> iamwhatiseem said:
> 
> 
> 
> editec is right...identifying the bubble is obvious. Saying when it will pop is a whooooole other issue.
> Are we currently in a bubble? Yes, the mother of all bubbles. Propped up by your tax dollars.
> Is this bubble about to pop? No. I have little doubt we will see 16000 before it does.
> Will there be hell to pay when it does pop? Yes, enough so that it will change this country for many years to come.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It will pop once the federal reserve increases interest rates. They will likely attempt to incrementally do that to slide us easily into a pop, rather than a fast jump off the cliff like 2007.
Click to expand...


There is going to be too much real growth in the actual economy for that to happen.  There is no bubble, and there won't be one, at least not for a very long time.  We will see who is right in the long run.  I tend to side with Warren Buffet's optimism for the future.


----------



## KissMy

TakeAStepBack said:


> iamwhatiseem said:
> 
> 
> 
> editec is right...identifying the bubble is obvious. Saying when it will pop is a whooooole other issue.
> Are we currently in a bubble? Yes, the mother of all bubbles. Propped up by your tax dollars.
> Is this bubble about to pop? No. I have little doubt we will see 16000 before it does.
> Will there be hell to pay when it does pop? Yes, enough so that it will change this country for many years to come.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It will pop once the federal reserve increases interest rates. They will likely attempt to incrementally do that to slide us easily into a pop, rather than a fast jump off the cliff like 2007.
Click to expand...


Exactly - The bubble can't pop because the Fed will continue printing $85 billion a month for the Big Banks to continue to buy up stocks.

I have been thinking a China Housing Crash could force a stock market correction. But now I am wondering if hot money will start flowing out of China & into the US for a while.


----------



## TakeAStepBack

auditor0007 said:


> TakeAStepBack said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> iamwhatiseem said:
> 
> 
> 
> editec is right...identifying the bubble is obvious. Saying when it will pop is a whooooole other issue.
> Are we currently in a bubble? Yes, the mother of all bubbles. Propped up by your tax dollars.
> Is this bubble about to pop? No. I have little doubt we will see 16000 before it does.
> Will there be hell to pay when it does pop? Yes, enough so that it will change this country for many years to come.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It will pop once the federal reserve increases interest rates. They will likely attempt to incrementally do that to slide us easily into a pop, rather than a fast jump off the cliff like 2007.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> There is going to be too much real growth in the actual economy for that to happen.  There is no bubble, and there won't be one, at least not for a very long time.  We will see who is right in the long run.  I tend to side with Warren Buffet's optimism for the future.
Click to expand...



This is the same cognition failure that had people laughing people like peter schiff and ron paul off the stage in 2003.


----------



## iamwhatiseem

auditor0007 said:


> iamwhatiseem said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> auditor0007 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Companies are making money hand over fist and have large amounts of cash available for expansion.  While I can understand a certain amount of apprehension, I think it is misplaced.  I see the stock market and economy taking off big time very soon.  By 2016, things will be picking up, and by 2020 we will be in a huge economic boom period, and none of it has to do with politics.  It won't matter what happens politically in 2016.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No.
> Companies are not making money hands over fist - only large corporations are.
> Small businesses are severely suffering - most just getting by.
> If there was "hand over fist" money to be made out there - then you wouldn't see the empty storefronts everywhere you go.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I drove by the local Mr. Freeze last night.  At 9:00 PM there were over 100 people standing in line for ice cream.  Everyone I'm talking to is telling me their businesses are starting to pick up.  It's slow and it doesn't include every single business,  but we are on the cusp of something pretty big.
Click to expand...


I operate a medium sized B2B operation ($12m sales) that deals with all kinds of businesses. The services we provide are a necessary part of any business no matter what it is. We also do a lot of work for the government.
  We have over 2400 active "Mr Freeze's" we deal with everyday. 
And here is what I hear every single day...multiple times a day:
"How can we cut costs..."
"What if I cut the qty to X,XXX..."
"Are there cheaper alternatives to..."
"What if we take out this part and just stick with...."
"We are only going to include three parts this year, we have to cut cost...."
"It's not about making a profit anymore, we are just trying to stay alive..."
"I won't retire here...we won't last that long..."
"Cost keep going up but we can't raise prices..."

  I could go on for paragraphs.
Small businesses are reeling...they are sick. Many are only making enough money to last for a few years....they are not making enough to re-invest.
Our business began to suffer in the spring of 2007. 
The 4th quarter of 2012 looked hopeful.
The 1st quarter of 2013 is worse even than 2009.
Keep in mind...what we do is an essential part of every business. And we are hearing the suffering LOUD AND CLEAR.


----------



## OohPooPahDoo

iamwhatiseem said:


> I operate a medium sized B2B operation ($12m sales) that deals with all kinds of businesses.



Oh really Ricky? Is that what you and Julian are calling your little dope growing business these days, a "B2B operation" ? What does that stand for "Bumbling idiot to bumbling idiot"? Well I've got some news for you boys! There's going to be some changes in this park. I want you and your dope plants outta here, you've got 24 hours to vacate the premises, or I'm gonna make a little call to my friend George Green!


----------



## iamwhatiseem

OohPooPahDoo said:


> iamwhatiseem said:
> 
> 
> 
> I operate a medium sized B2B operation ($12m sales) that deals with all kinds of businesses.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Oh really Ricky? Is that what you and Julian are calling your little dope growing business these days, a "B2B operation" ? What does that stand for "Bumbling idiot to bumbling idiot"? Well I've got some news for you boys! There's going to be some changes in this park. I want you and your dope plants outta here, you've got 24 hours to vacate the premises, or I'm gonna make a little call to my friend George Green!
Click to expand...


If you don't know what B2B is...perhaps the economic threads is not the place for you.


----------



## OohPooPahDoo

iamwhatiseem said:


> OohPooPahDoo said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> iamwhatiseem said:
> 
> 
> 
> I operate a medium sized B2B operation ($12m sales) that deals with all kinds of businesses.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Oh really Ricky? Is that what you and Julian are calling your little dope growing business these days, a "B2B operation" ? What does that stand for "Bumbling idiot to bumbling idiot"? Well I've got some news for you boys! There's going to be some changes in this park. I want you and your dope plants outta here, you've got 24 hours to vacate the premises, or I'm gonna make a little call to my friend George Green!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> If you don't know what B2B is...perhaps the economic threads is not the place for you.
Click to expand...


Wow. You actually watch the trailer park boys?


----------



## iamwhatiseem

OohPooPahDoo said:


> iamwhatiseem said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> OohPooPahDoo said:
> 
> 
> 
> Oh really Ricky? Is that what you and Julian are calling your little dope growing business these days, a "B2B operation" ? What does that stand for "Bumbling idiot to bumbling idiot"? Well I've got some news for you boys! There's going to be some changes in this park. I want you and your dope plants outta here, you've got 24 hours to vacate the premises, or I'm gonna make a little call to my friend George Green!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If you don't know what B2B is...perhaps the economic threads is not the place for you.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Wow. You actually watch the trailer park boys?
Click to expand...


I have met Mike (Bubbles) and Robb (Ricky) personally in Chicago. 
I really wanted to meet John Dunsworth (Leahy) but didn't get the chance.
Sorry for the retort, I thought you were being a smart ass.


----------



## Toro

It's not a bubble.  It might be on it's way to one but it isn't one yet.

1999 was a bubble.


----------



## iamwhatiseem

Toro said:


> It's not a bubble.  It might be on it's way to one but it isn't one yet.
> 
> 1999 was a bubble.



Yeah...it is more like the shape of a condom.


----------



## B. Kidd

OohPooPahDoo said:


> B. Kidd said:
> 
> 
> 
> . Sell high, buy low my mantra.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wow. What an innovative investment strategy.
Click to expand...



You forgot my 'cash-out' is related to putting a significant down on a new house AT a 3.6%interest rate.
So if the market goes above 15.5 K, just look at the money I'll be saving over 30 years on THAT interest rate (will offset it, fer' sure!).
Wow , what an investment strategy.
To quote James Brown, "I feel good....".


----------



## AmazonTania

Toro said:


> It's not a bubble.  It might be on it's way to one but it isn't one yet.
> 
> 1999 was a bubble.



So no similarities you recognize between 1999 and today? That's rather bizarre.


----------



## Toro

AmazonTania said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's not a bubble.  It might be on it's way to one but it isn't one yet.
> 
> 1999 was a bubble.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So no similarities you recognize between 1999 and today? That's rather bizarre.
Click to expand...


A bubble in stocks isn't when stocks go up because you don't understand why, or because of money printing, or because stocks are expensive.  A bubble in stocks is when stocks make zero sense from a valuation standpoint and there is a mania.  Neither exists today.  The price/earnings ratio on the S&P 500 is currently about 16x, which is roughly the long-term average.  During the bubble, it was as high as 30x, for large-cap growth stocks it was over 40x, and for the Nasdaq around 100x.  That's a bubble.


----------



## B. Kidd

Toro said:


> AmazonTania said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's not a bubble.  It might be on it's way to one but it isn't one yet.
> 
> 1999 was a bubble.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So no similarities you recognize between 1999 and today? That's rather bizarre.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> A bubble in stocks isn't when stocks go up because you don't understand why, or because of money printing, or because stocks are expensive.  A bubble in stocks is when stocks make zero sense from a valuation standpoint and there is a mania.  Neither exists today.  The price/earnings ratio on the S&P 500 is currently about 16x, which is roughly the long-term average.  During the bubble, it was as high as 30x, for large-cap growth stocks it was over 40x, and for the Nasdaq around 100x.  That's a bubble.
Click to expand...


Amazon-T should thank you for edukatin' him.........


----------



## Dugdale_Jukes

auditor0007 said:


> iamwhatiseem said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> auditor0007 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Companies are making money hand over fist and have large amounts of cash available for expansion.  While I can understand a certain amount of apprehension, I think it is misplaced.  I see the stock market and economy taking off big time very soon.  By 2016, things will be picking up, and by 2020 we will be in a huge economic boom period, and none of it has to do with politics.  It won't matter what happens politically in 2016.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No.
> Companies are not making money hands over fist - only large corporations are.
> Small businesses are severely suffering - most just getting by.
> If there was "hand over fist" money to be made out there - then you wouldn't see the empty storefronts everywhere you go.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I drove by the local Mr. Freeze last night.  At 9:00 PM there were over 100 people standing in line for ice cream.  Everyone I'm talking to is telling me their businesses are starting to pick up.  It's slow and it doesn't include every single business,  but we are on the cusp of something pretty big.
Click to expand...


The folks holding my contract (Fortune 100 megalith) plan for the US economy to be as close as it is going to get to "normal" [specifically, the new normal] no sooner than 2017 and possibly as late as 2020. 

There is no question in my mind we'll see at least one and maybe two more "corrections" before 2017.


----------



## AmazonTania

Toro said:


> A bubble in stocks isn't when stocks go up because you don't understand why, or because of money printing, or because stocks are expensive.  A bubble in stocks is when stocks make zero sense from a valuation standpoint and there is a mania.  Neither exists today.  The price/earnings ratio on the S&P 500 is currently about 16x, which is roughly the long-term average.  During the bubble, it was as high as 30x, for large-cap growth stocks it was over 40x, and for the Nasdaq around 100x.  That's a bubble.



I never said that there was a bubble in stocks. I only asked if you recognize any similarities between 1999 and today. I'm pretty sure you know that Stocks weren't the only securities experiencing a bubble, or don't you?

I don't suppose you are aware that those are not the only indicator of bubble. Although valuations are far from bubble territory, US earnings and book value are both flattered beyond belief. Either way, all you have just told me that the bubble is not in equities.



B. Kidd said:


> Amazon-T should thank you for edukatin' him.........



Never let the name Tania escape the fact that you can't diffientiate between a man and woman.

Also, a random on an internet forum educating a Stock Broker on stock bubbles. Yeah, I guess I can see that happening, you either of you have a hellava job ahead of you if you think you are 'educating' me...


----------



## B. Kidd

AmazonTania said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> A bubble in stocks isn't when stocks go up because you don't understand why, or because of money printing, or because stocks are expensive.  A bubble in stocks is when stocks make zero sense from a valuation standpoint and there is a mania.  Neither exists today.  The price/earnings ratio on the S&P 500 is currently about 16x, which is roughly the long-term average.  During the bubble, it was as high as 30x, for large-cap growth stocks it was over 40x, and for the Nasdaq around 100x.  That's a bubble.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I never said that there was a bubble in stocks. I only asked if you recognize any similarities between 1999 and today. I'm pretty sure you know that Stocks weren't the only securities experiencing a bubble, or don't you?
> 
> I don't suppose you are aware that those are not the only indicator of bubble. Although valuations are far from bubble territory, US earnings and book value are both flattered beyond belief. Either way, all you have just told me that the bubble is not in equities.
> 
> 
> 
> B. Kidd said:
> 
> 
> 
> Amazon-T should thank you for edukatin' him.........
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Never let the name Tania escape the fact that you can't diffientiate between a man and woman.
> 
> Also, a random on an internet forum educating a Stock Broker on stock bubbles. Yeah, I guess I can see that happening, you either of you have a hellava job ahead of you if you think you are 'educating' me...
Click to expand...


Okay.....a female self-professed financial expert....check.
I'm impressed......


----------



## AmazonTania

B. Kidd said:


> Okay.....a female self-professed financial expert....check.
> I'm impressed......



Anyone who is a stock broker is a financial expert? Interesting. That must explain why hedge funds hasn't done any better than flipping a coin for the last 30 years.

All I am saying is people should address what I am saying, not what people would like me to say.


----------



## Dugdale_Jukes

Hyperstock values are 20% INTO bubble territory on average with businesses like Apple and Google being at the 20% bogusness level while Exxon is probably as close to real world value as any stock and the majority of stocks suspect because accounting is whatever anyone wants it to be. The big falls next time are going to be tech-based stocks that are watered to the point of absurdity now.   

No question about it.


----------



## Toro

AmazonTania said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> A bubble in stocks isn't when stocks go up because you don't understand why, or because of money printing, or because stocks are expensive.  A bubble in stocks is when stocks make zero sense from a valuation standpoint and there is a mania.  Neither exists today.  The price/earnings ratio on the S&P 500 is currently about 16x, which is roughly the long-term average.  During the bubble, it was as high as 30x, for large-cap growth stocks it was over 40x, and for the Nasdaq around 100x.  That's a bubble.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I never said that there was a bubble in stocks. I only asked if you recognize any similarities between 1999 and today. I'm pretty sure you know that Stocks weren't the only securities experiencing a bubble, or don't you?
> 
> I don't suppose you are aware that those are not the only indicator of bubble. Although valuations are far from bubble territory, US earnings and book value are both flattered beyond belief. Either way, all you have just told me that the bubble is not in equities.
> 
> 
> 
> B. Kidd said:
> 
> 
> 
> Amazon-T should thank you for edukatin' him.........
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Never let the name Tania escape the fact that you can't diffientiate between a man and woman.
> 
> Also, a random on an internet forum educating a Stock Broker on stock bubbles. Yeah, I guess I can see that happening, you either of you have a hellava job ahead of you if you think you are 'educating' me...
Click to expand...


I'm not a stock broker.  I was one for a short period of time.  I'm an institutional money manager and I've been managing large amounts of money for nearly 20 years.

In the late 1990s, stocks were in a bubble.  No other asset class that I can remember was also in a bubble.  The similarities between today and 1998/99 is that the Fed cut interest rates to save Long-Term Capital Management before raising them in 1999, whereas today, we have 0% interest rates, and aren't raising rates anytime soon.  Also, the Fed is highly cognizant of asset prices and may be creating serial bubbles.  Otherwise, there are few similarities.  If there is a bubble today, it's in fixed income.  But there is not one in stocks.


----------



## Toro

Oh, and valuation is the only indicator of a bubble because, by definition, a bubble is when prices become totally disconnected from reality.  As for other indicators like price to book value, stocks are about where they've been for the past 30 or so years.


----------



## william the wie

Toro said:


> Oh, and valuation is the only indicator of a bubble because, by definition, a bubble is when prices become totally disconnected from reality.  As for other indicators like price to book value, stocks are about where they've been for the past 30 or so years.


Sounds intelligent and reasonable to me but there is a big problem in other numbers

Market Cap vs. GDP has been in bubble territory since 1996 so there is a major league bubble out there. Instead of the longrun average of about 0.8 GDP for market cap *at tops* over the past century the current ratio is 1.64 GDP. I don't know where to find it online but "Riding The Bear" by Sy Harding has the relevant data in tabular form if you want to check. Other than importation of rebuilt capital equipment due to the US lacking a VAT I am unaware of other major understatements of US GDP.

So, either there is a cumulative 50+% understatement of GDP due to investment that is not counted in GDP and while that is remotely possible I kind of doubt that nobody would have run the numbers and come out with a 46+T figure for actual GDP and I wouldn't have heard about it. What is your explanation of this disconnect between market cap and GDP? I would expect a hidden 2+% GDP growth over the past 50 years to be fairly damned obvious to somebody and that such a discovery would make the news in a big way, so did I miss something or what?


----------



## Toro

william the wie said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Oh, and valuation is the only indicator of a bubble because, by definition, a bubble is when prices become totally disconnected from reality.  As for other indicators like price to book value, stocks are about where they've been for the past 30 or so years.
> 
> 
> 
> Sounds intelligent and reasonable to me but there is a big problem in other numbers
> 
> Market Cap vs. GDP has been in bubble territory since 1996 so there is a major league bubble out there. Instead of the longrun average of about 0.8 GDP for market cap *at tops* over the past century the current ratio is 1.64 GDP. I don't know where to find it online but "Riding The Bear" by Sy Harding has the relevant data in tabular form if you want to check. Other than importation of rebuilt capital equipment due to the US lacking a VAT I am unaware of other major understatements of US GDP.
> 
> So, either there is a cumulative 50+% understatement of GDP due to investment that is not counted in GDP and while that is remotely possible I kind of doubt that nobody would have run the numbers and come out with a 46+T figure for actual GDP and I wouldn't have heard about it. What is your explanation of this disconnect between market cap and GDP? I would expect a hidden 2+% GDP growth over the past 50 years to be fairly damned obvious to somebody and that such a discovery would make the news in a big way, so did I miss something or what?
Click to expand...


Or, market cap to GDP doesn't really apply because about 40% of the profits of the S&P 500 companies comes from abroad and there are structural changes within the economy that reflect higher valuations, i.e. more of a knowledge-driven economy now compared to the past. 

What is more interesting is the level of profit margins, which are near record highs.  Are they sustainable?  I don't know the answer to that.  The long-term average is about 6%.  Today it's around 9%.  Again, part of that is due to structural changes, but part is also due to very low interest rates, which will eventually drift higher.  Profits as a percentage of the economy are at all-time highs.  Can they stay like that forever?  History would say, no.  In fact, so would capitalism, given the lack of investment that should push down higher ROEs.


----------



## william the wie

Toro said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Oh, and valuation is the only indicator of a bubble because, by definition, a bubble is when prices become totally disconnected from reality.  As for other indicators like price to book value, stocks are about where they've been for the past 30 or so years.
> 
> 
> 
> Sounds intelligent and reasonable to me but there is a big problem in other numbers
> 
> Market Cap vs. GDP has been in bubble territory since 1996 so there is a major league bubble out there. Instead of the longrun average of about 0.8 GDP for market cap *at tops* over the past century the current ratio is 1.64 GDP. I don't know where to find it online but "Riding The Bear" by Sy Harding has the relevant data in tabular form if you want to check. Other than importation of rebuilt capital equipment due to the US lacking a VAT I am unaware of other major understatements of US GDP.
> 
> So, either there is a cumulative 50+% understatement of GDP due to investment that is not counted in GDP and while that is remotely possible I kind of doubt that nobody would have run the numbers and come out with a 46+T figure for actual GDP and I wouldn't have heard about it. What is your explanation of this disconnect between market cap and GDP? I would expect a hidden 2+% GDP growth over the past 50 years to be fairly damned obvious to somebody and that such a discovery would make the news in a big way, so did I miss something or what?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Or, market cap to GDP doesn't really apply because about 40% of the profits of the S&P 500 companies comes from abroad and there are structural changes within the economy that reflect higher valuations, i.e. more of a knowledge-driven economy now compared to the past.
> 
> What is more interesting is the level of profit margins, which are near record highs.  Are they sustainable?  I don't know the answer to that.  The long-term average is about 6%.  Today it's around 9%.  Again, part of that is due to structural changes, but part is also due to very low interest rates, which will eventually drift higher.  Profits as a percentage of the economy are at all-time highs.  Can they stay like that forever?  History would say, no.  In fact, so would capitalism, given the lack of investment that should push down higher ROEs.
Click to expand...

OK, we're at least in radio contact on areas of fragility so I'm not major league off base. But unlike my friends on this thread I see way too much concentration on US data and way too little on foreign data. It feels like 1997-8 from where I sit. 

Brazil and Africa seem to be going hyperbolic on energy production. The Far East is hitting speed bumps and the Ukraine is hoping to get rich off its shale oil and gas. There has got to be a downside $30-/bbl oil.


----------



## B. Kidd

B. Kidd said:


> I just cashed out the other day. Sell high, buy low my mantra. Needed a hefty down payment for a house I'm buying. It actually felt good. Market may go a lil' higher, but if it hits 15,500 or higher, I'll eat fatso Kim Kardishians' panties (not really).



Stock market still has not closed at 15,500 or higher, so far. Has come close tho'. Fortunately, there was a strong global selloff today.
No way I wanna eat Kim Kardishians' panties......whew! (as B. Kidd wipes his brow).


----------



## Staidhup

For there to be a bubble you first have to see PE ratio's reach the sky, second you need to see sales start to flatten for an extended time. Most important as long as CD and Bond rates remain mediocre at best the need to beat or meet inflation requires investment in the stock market. The flight from precious metals, and the Euro to stocks continues to push valuations up further. If its a bubble your worried about then think US Dollar and US debt securities.


----------



## FireFly

Japan just printed triple the money as we did here in the USA on a percentage basis. Now their stock market just tanked 7%. They must be rushing to buy Gold because it has made a u-turn.

Lower yen will lower Japan export prices. The US profit margins will take a hit as cheap Japanese goods flood the markets. That will lower US stock earnings per share & stock prices.


----------



## iamwhatiseem

Talk all you want - label it as you please...the fact remains the market is drunk on low interest rates, money printing and $85,000,000,000 massive bond buying and toxic asset buying via the FED.
A few weeks ago the market fell 200 points on a whispered rumor that the FED might...might...stop the flow of cash (that wasn't true)...it fell 200 points simply on a rumor.
Today it has fallen another 200 because, once again, the f*cking reality is setting in finally that "oh wait...the economy is not that good without the freebie tax payer props"...Jesus Christ.


----------



## B. Kidd

B. Kidd said:


> B. Kidd said:
> 
> 
> 
> I just cashed out the other day. Sell high, buy low my mantra. Needed a hefty down payment for a house I'm buying. It actually felt good. Market may go a lil' higher, but if it hits 15,500 or higher, I'll eat fatso Kim Kardishians' panties (not really).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Stock market still has not closed at 15,500 or higher, so far. Has come close tho'. Fortunately, there was a strong global selloff today.
> No way I wanna eat Kim Kardishians' panties......whew! (as B. Kidd wipes his brow).
Click to expand...


Market below 15K today. (200+ pt. selloff)
I took my money an' ran.
My mouth is safe!!!
K. Kardishians' panties are someone else's problem.........................


----------



## Rozman

B. Kidd said:


> I just cashed out the other day. Sell high, buy low my mantra. Needed a hefty down payment for a house I'm buying. It actually felt good. Market may go a lil' higher, but if it hits 15,500 or higher, I'll eat fatso Kim Kardishians' panties (not really).






> *I'll eat fatso Kim Kardishians' panties (not really).*



Good call for backing off that...
Look what happened to Michael Douglas....
And he's married to Catherine Zeta Jones and look at how that worked out.


----------



## Rozman

And why in the world did you have to come up with a huge down payment for a house.
You can't do a Fannie or Freddie deal with no down payment,buy a house you can't afford,walk away
with Obama's blessing then blame it all on the Republicans.

Or maybe you just don't work that way....
Good for you.


----------



## ELITEofWarman8

Rozman said:


> And why in the world did you have to come up with a huge down payment for a house.
> You can't do a Fannie or Freddie deal with no down payment,buy a house you can't afford,walk away
> with Obama's blessing then blame it all on the Republicans.
> 
> Or maybe you just don't work that way....
> Good for you.



Good one!


----------



## KissMy

FireFly said:


> Japan just printed triple the money as we did here in the USA on a percentage basis. Now their stock market just tanked 7%. They must be rushing to buy Gold because it has made a u-turn.
> 
> Lower yen will lower Japan export prices. The US profit margins will take a hit as cheap Japanese goods flood the markets. That will lower US stock earnings per share & stock prices.



Whats really scary is that the US dollar is now falling against the Japanese Yen. Their economy must be in serious recession grinding lending / money creation to a halt.


----------



## AmazonTania

KissMy said:


> FireFly said:
> 
> 
> 
> Japan just printed triple the money as we did here in the USA on a percentage basis. Now their stock market just tanked 7%. They must be rushing to buy Gold because it has made a u-turn.
> 
> Lower yen will lower Japan export prices. The US profit margins will take a hit as cheap Japanese goods flood the markets. That will lower US stock earnings per share & stock prices.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Whats really scary is that the US dollar is now falling against the Japanese Yen. Their economy must be in serious recession grinding lending / money creation to a halt.
Click to expand...


That's been going on for months, or since they started Abemonics in Japan.


----------



## boedicca

Yes.  Once QE^Infinity ends and interest rates pop up, the stock market will correct.


----------



## Toro

High negative sentiment will likely limit the downside in the near-term.






Taper Questions Will Dominate

I added longs into the close.


----------



## william the wie

I doubt US sentiment is as important as what will happen in the BRICS. Inflation edging towards double digits and stocks selling at PEs of less than 5 are freaky.


----------



## SteadyMercury

boedicca said:


> Yes.  Once QE^Infinity ends and interest rates pop up, the stock market will correct.


Correct to what? Where do you think it belongs?

I believe the effect of ending QE will be more an emotional one, with lots of it happening like yesterday where it will priced into the market before it even actually happens. Are you expecting something more drastic like a 10% or 20% drop? Are you making moves into another asset class in your portfolio?


----------



## freedombecki

Awww, too bad. The market was down today.

14,758.32 
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




 -353.87 -2.34% 

MSN Money


----------



## Sallow

AmazonTania said:


> iamwhatiseem said:
> 
> 
> 
> editec is right...identifying the bubble is obvious. Saying when it will pop is a whooooole other issue.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wasn't that obvious to those in 2004 - 2007.
Click to expand...


Sure it was.


----------



## Sallow

boedicca said:


> Yes.  Once QE^Infinity ends and interest rates pop up, the stock market will correct.



Yep.

And it will probably go back up again.


----------



## AmazonTania

Sallow said:


> AmazonTania said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> iamwhatiseem said:
> 
> 
> 
> editec is right...identifying the bubble is obvious. Saying when it will pop is a whooooole other issue.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wasn't that obvious to those in 2004 - 2007.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Sure it was.
Click to expand...


It's always easier to claim what was 'obvious' nearly a decade after the fact.


----------



## william the wie

AmazonTania said:


> Sallow said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> AmazonTania said:
> 
> 
> 
> Wasn't that obvious to those in 2004 - 2007.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sure it was.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> It's always easier to claim what was 'obvious' nearly a decade after the fact.
Click to expand...

It is the reason AIG pulled out of the CDS market in the spring of 2005.


----------



## PhillyGuard

The Federal Reserve keeps repeating the same cycle.  Create a bubble with easy money, watch the bubble burst and cause widespread damage, attempt to repair damage with easy money, create the next bubble....


----------



## Rozman

I think it will be more then a pop.
More like a nuclear explosion.


----------



## Rozman

What happens when the Fed announces it's gonna pull the plug on 
pumping money into the market.

The Dow loses 600 points in one day.


----------



## Rozman

The Libs blame the Republicans...
The WH blames Bush...
Chris Mathews apologizes once again on behalf of white people.


----------



## OohPooPahDoo

Rozman said:


> What happens when the Fed announces it's gonna pull the plug on
> pumping money into the market.
> 
> The Dow loses 600 points in one day.



Big deal.  The dow has DOUBLED since Obama took office. A 600 pt loss isn't going to kill anyone except the moronically over leveraged


----------



## OohPooPahDoo

Toro said:


> High negative sentiment will likely limit the downside in the near-term.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Taper Questions Will Dominate
> 
> I added longs into the close.



Given the existence of put-call parity I'm having trouble figuring out why the put-call ratio matters.


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## Toro

OohPooPahDoo said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> High negative sentiment will likely limit the downside in the near-term.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Taper Questions Will Dominate
> 
> I added longs into the close.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Given the existence of put-call parity I'm having trouble figuring out why the put-call ratio matters.
Click to expand...


It signifies excessive fear.


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## AmazonTania

Investors are generally optimistic that GDP will generally pick up in the third quarter of 2013. (or worst case as late as 2015) and that's what will drive 'real economy' earnings back from a comma, with QE tapering knocking up 28% of S&P 500 value off (2x on a 14x Fwd P/E).


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## Animus

ETFguide: Bond Losses at Federal Reserve Top $192 Billion


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