# U.S. urges ally Turkey to join Iran sanctions push



## toomuchtime_

> *The United States urged Turkey on Wednesday to support more sanctions against Iran over Tehran's nuclear program, saying Ankara could face consequences if it moves out of step with the international community.*
> 
> 
> Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon, the State Department's top diplomat for Europe, said U.S.-Turkey relations were strong despite a row over a resolution by U.S. lawmakers branding the 1915-era killings of Armenians by Turkish forces as "genocide."
> 
> But he said Turkey, a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council that has been leery of the U.S.-led push to further punish Iran, must show it is "on board" with the move toward new sanctions.
> 
> "Many would be disappointed if Turkey is an exception to an international consensus on dealing with Iran," he told a news briefing before a speech on U.S. relations with Turkey, a fellow NATO member and pivotal regional ally to Washington.
> 
> "Turkey wants to be an important, responsible actor on the international scene. And I think joining the majority of the Security Council in doing this would reinforce that image," Gordon said.
> 
> "Not doing so would not contribute to that positive outcome ... I think that's a consequence."
> 
> The United States and other Western powers are seeking support new U.N. sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, which they fear is a cover for developing atomic weapons.
> 
> But China, a permanent, veto-wielding member of the Security Council, along with non-permanent members Turkey and Brazil, have urged more time for diplomacy with Iran, which insists its nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes.





> He said the relationship was a two-way street and noted that Washington was a strong supporter of Turkey's bid to join the European Union, one of Ankara's chief goals.
> 
> "On nearly every issue that is critical to Turkey's future, the United States plays an enormously important role as a trusted friend and ally," Gordon said. The relationship, he added, "requires hard work and attention -- on both sides."



U.S. urges ally Turkey to join Iran sanctions push | Reuters


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## Avatar4321

Maybe they should have thought of this before trying to pass a resolution condemning Turkey for Genocide.


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## toomuchtime_

Avatar4321 said:


> Maybe they should have thought of this before trying to pass a resolution condemning Turkey for Genocide.



The resolution is not so much about what the Turks did during WWI, but what it says about today's Turkey that the government and the people still believe it is acceptable to take 1.5 million civilians on death marches into the Syrian desert and then execute the survivors.  

In any case, it is a mistake to think Turkey's reluctance to support the US sanctions has anything to do with the resolution.  Weeks ago, Erdogan stated that he would not support sanctions against Iran for attempting to acquire nuclear weapons as long as Israel had them.


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## ekrem

toomuchtime_ said:


> (...)
> Weeks ago, Erdogan stated that he would not support sanctions against Iran for attempting to acquire nuclear weapons as long as Israel had them.



Turkey is signatory to NPT and nuclear-free Middle-East is one of our core interests. Including disarmament of Israel. 
In the mid-term - independent from Iran issue - either Middle-East becomes nuclear-free zone or there will be several other nuclear powers. 
Including Turkey if we decide that NATO's nuclear umbrella does not fit our security needs anymore.
Can't be that any shithole countries around nullify Turkey's conventional power.


----------



## toomuchtime_

ekrem said:


> toomuchtime_ said:
> 
> 
> 
> (...)
> Weeks ago, Erdogan stated that he would not support sanctions against Iran for attempting to acquire nuclear weapons as long as Israel had them.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Turkey is signatory to NPT and nuclear-free Middle-East is one of our core interests. Including disarmament of Israel.
> In the mid-term - independent from Iran issue - either Middle-East becomes nuclear-free zone or there will be several other nuclear powers.
> Including Turkey if we decide that NATO's nuclear umbrella does not fit our security needs anymore.
> Can't be that any shithole countries around nullify Turkey's conventional power.
Click to expand...


Bottom line: even if no country passed resolutions calling Turkey's slaughter of 1.5 Armenian civilians genocide, Turkey would still stand staunchly against sanctions aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.


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## ekrem

toomuchtime_ said:


> Bottom line: even if no country passed resolutions calling Turkey's slaughter of 1.5 Armenian civilians genocide, Turkey would still stand staunchly against sanctions aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.



You have a logic mistake. You seem to hold valid your intelligence. 
Our intelligence says Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, but civilian use of nuclear power. 
Our intelligence also said Iraq did not have serious "WMD"'s to pose a real threat.


----------



## ekrem

*'Only rumours' that Iran making nuclear weapons: Turkish PM*
'Only rumours' that Iran making nuclear weapons: Turkish PM - Yahoo! News


Erdogan said it was not right to *manipulate the issue as if "Iran desired to possess nuclear weapons"*. 
Turkey's PM dismisses nuclear claims on Iran as rumour [ WORLD BULLETIN- TURKEY NEWS, WORLD NEWS ]

Based on false intel and manipulated rumours (fixing+faking) we shall sanction a neighbour?
No Mr. Armenian-Genocide Congress. 
Iranian access to Turkish banking sector, money exchange, gasoline exports all will go on.


----------



## toomuchtime_

ekrem said:


> *'Only rumours' that Iran making nuclear weapons: Turkish PM*
> 'Only rumours' that Iran making nuclear weapons: Turkish PM - Yahoo! News
> 
> 
> Erdogan said it was not right to *manipulate the issue as if "Iran desired to possess nuclear weapons"*.
> Turkey's PM dismisses nuclear claims on Iran as rumour [ WORLD BULLETIN- TURKEY NEWS, WORLD NEWS ]
> 
> Based on false intel and manipulated rumours (fixing+faking) we shall sanction a neighbour?
> No Mr. Armenian-Genocide Congress.
> Iranian access to Turkish banking sector, money exchange, gasoline exports all will go on.



The question is, will Turkey continue to be regarded as an ally by the US and European countries?  Will Turkey be permitted to buy the F-35 and other advanced weapons systems?  Will Turkey's license to manufacture F-16's be modified?  Will Turkey's application for international loans and loan guarantees be scrutinized more carefully?  Will Turkey's bid to enter the EU go forward?  Will Turkey's membership in NATO be questioned because of its increasingly close alliance with Iran?  How will the world regard Erdogan's present program to purge secularists from the military and judiciary and replace them with Islamists?

In recent years, Turkey's choices have been based mostly on ideology rather than practical considerations.  Turkey's refusal to allow the 4th infantry division to cross into nothern Iraq forced the US to rely on the Pesh Merga, the Kurdish militia, greatly strengthening Kurdish demands for autonomy and their ability to defend it and weakening the Iraqi central government, thus giving encouragement to Kurdish nationalists who would also liberate Turkish Kurdistan.  Had northern Iraq been occupied by the 4th infantry division rather than by Kurdish forces, Turkey's national interests would have been better protected, but Turkey has consistently refused to stand with western (Christian) powers against any Muslim group or nation, even Saddam Hussein, even when it is in Turkey's best interests to do so.

In Afghanistan, Turkey refuses to fight against the Taliban, arguing that it would be unpopular for Turkish forces to kill other Muslims, but much of Turkey's history over the last several centuries is written in the blood of Kurdish and Arab Muslims, so that argument makes no sense.  The truth is that once again Turkey refuses to take sides with western powers (Christians) against any Muslims, the Taliban, regardless of the circumstances.

Given these facts, is there any reason why the US and European nations should regard Turkey as an ally rather than as a potential adversary?


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## ekrem

toomuchtime_ said:


> The question is, will Turkey continue to be regarded as an ally by the US and European countries?


It is not USA that defines how Turkey interacts with countries like UK, Germany, Spain, Italy. All of them have their own interests with Turkey. 

EU-JAPAN trade volume
= 91 Billion 

EU-INDIA trade volume
= 52 Billion 

EU-TURKEY trade volume
= 79 Billion 

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-18032010-AP/EN/6-18032010-AP-EN.PDF




toomuchtime_ said:


> Will Turkey be permitted to buy the F-35 and other advanced weapons systems?


We do only purchase weapons from USA which we 
a) can not produce 
b) other options with technological transfer are still inferior 

In Army or Navy we do not procure anything from USA. 
We produce indigenious or buy from others with technology transfer. 

*Turkey Increasingly Shuns U.S. Weapons*
Armed Services and Government News - Document Display




toomuchtime_ said:


> Will Turkey's license to manufacture F-16's be modified?


If relations break, we dont give a f* about licences. Chinese-style. 
We will call it F-16-*T* (Turk).
Pump some 2-3 Billion $ in Aeronautical Faculity of universities to develop an indigenious AESA-Radar for F-16-*T*. 
The rest is no big business, its only the AESA-Radars. 




toomuchtime_ said:


> Will Turkey's application for international loans and loan guarantees be scrutinized more carefully?



You owe us 28 Billion $. Give me my tax-money back!
http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

*USA*
Public debt 
*84% of GDP*
Economy of the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

*Turkey*
Public debt 	
37.1% of GDP[5] (2008 est.)
Economy of Turkey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Our state bonds sell independently from the quality of our relations. 



toomuchtime_ said:


> Will Turkey's bid to enter the EU go forward?


Whether we join EU or not does not change the fact, that we are a power-factor on EU's South-Eastern flank and none of the EU countries make any move against our interests in the Eastern Mediteranean. 
Eastern Mediteranean is a couch, Turkey with her fat ass sits on it.  









Russia + Turkey













toomuchtime_ said:


> Will Turkey's membership in NATO be questioned because of its increasingly close alliance with Iran?


If Turkey leaves NATO this will have major geo-politic implications.
Turkey then becomes a truly free-agent without any restrictions in its geo-security approach to its outer world.
Maybe we then join SCO and expand Chinese-Russian influence as a catalysator.
Maybe we upgrade ECO or D-8 into a true Alliance. 

Economic Cooperation Organization - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Developing 8 Countries - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Whatever, the outcome will not be good for Washington in geo-politics. 
It also leaves behind a NATO as a pure Christian force. Will be nice propaganda for the Jihadists.




toomuchtime_ said:


> How will the world regard Erdogan's present program to purge secularists from the military and judiciary and replace them with Islamists?


That's no business of the outer-world. 
It is a business for a foreign nation only if Turkey is defeated on battlefield.
Otherwise its just talk the talk. 
Turkey is a nation-state, her independence coming from the noble blood of Turks' grandfathers. 
What Turks do within country is Turks' business. 
We can not stop foreigners from "talk the talk", but "walk the walk"-Highway is reserved for Turks. 




toomuchtime_ said:


> Given these facts, is there any reason why the US and European nations should regard Turkey as an ally rather than as a potential adversary?



quoting STRATFOR on this:



> With the disappearance of the threats of yesteryear, many of the things that once held Turkeys undivided attention have become less important to Ankara. With the Soviet threat gone, NATO is no longer critical. With new markets opening up in the former Soviet Union, Turkeys obsession with seeking EU membership has faded to a mere passing interest. Turkey has become a free agent, bound by very few relationships or restrictions, but dabbling in events throughout its entire periphery. Unlike Russia, which feels it needs an empire to survive, Turkey is flirting with the idea of an empire simply because it can  and the costs of exploring the option are negligible.
> Whereas Russia is a state facing a clear series of threats in a very short time frame, Turkey is a state facing a veritable smorgasbord of strategic options under no time pressure whatsoever.


Turkey and Russia on the Rise | STRATFOR


Turkey and Russia are the only economical gravity centers in West-Asia. 
The others are in the East:
- India
- Thailand (contained by China)
- South-Korea (contained by China)
- China 

By projections Turkey will be 10th biggest economical power by 2023 (100th Anniversary of Republic) with a foreign trade of 1,1 Trillion $
Ticaret Mü?avirli?i | Commercial Counsellor

Turkey is experiencing her own "Wirtschaftswunder" like West-Germany did in 50's and 60's.
Wirtschaftswunder - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Get used to the Turkish menace-mentality. 



> The Turkish Armed Forces has initiated a *$160 billion (excluding the yearly military budget) modernization program in 1997*. $45 billion is earmarked to go to the overhaul of the Turkish Air Force.


Turkish Air Force - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

By 2015 we will be in a position to grant security-guarantees to nations like Lebanon, Jordan or Syria. Equipping them with indigenious solutions ranging from Cruise Missiles over MBT's to Battleships to satellites.
If they play nice we will also grant them access to space Astronauts boosting their local grandfeelings. 






*Project code 01-01*: Development of launch roket (145 Million $)
*Project code 01-02*: Development of space shuttle for manned launches (1 Billion $)
*Project code 01-03*: Satellite capabilities (400 Million $)
*Project code 01-04*: Space center (1,1 Billion $)


*2010*: Begin of Astronaut Education and low-cost launch rocket experiments.
*2011*: solar system and planetary observation, magnetic field research
*2013*: scanning comets
*2014*: space-shuttle launch
Eomag!: Turkey and Ukraine sign treaty for space cooperation


*2011*: launch of Göktürk 1 + 2 spy satellites. (military)
*2012*: launch of 1st Synthetic Aperture Radar Block-1 (military), and Turksat 4A commercial
*2014*: launch of Türksat 5A (military communication)
*2016*: launch of Göktürk 3 (military)
*2016*: launch of Ikaz/Ihbar satellite, infrared ballistic missile launch warn-system (military)
*2017*: launch of Synthetic Aperture radar Block-2 (military)























Western Asia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia




[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmcfxVEwt0I]YouTube - George Friedman Predicts Ottoman Rise[/ame]





> *Decade Forecast: 2010-2020*
> 
> Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran will remain issues by 2020, but not defining issues in the region. Two other countries will be more important. Turkey is emerging as a self-confident regional leader, with a strong military and economy. We expect that trend to continue, and see Turkey emerging as the dominant regional power. The growth of Turkish power and influence in the next decade is one reason we feel confident in the decline of the U.S.-jihadist war and the transformation of the Iran issue. The dynamic in the region between the Mediterranean and Iran  and even in the Caucasus and Central Asia  will be redefined by Turkeys re-emergence. Of course, Turkey will feel tremendous internal tensions during this process, as is the case for any emerging power. For Turkey, the relationship between the Ataturkian tradition and the Islamic tradition is the deep fault line. It could falsify this forecast by plunging the country into chaos. While that is possible, we feel that the crisis will be managed over the next decade, albeit with much pain and stress.
> 
> By 2020, Egypt will be changing from the type of country it has been since the 1970s  for the past generation it has lacked the capacity to influence developments beyond its borders. Like Turkey, Egypt is caught between secularism and Islam, and that tension could continue paralyzing it. However, as Turkey rises, Ankara will need a large source of cheap labor and markets for exports. The result will be a coattails effect for Egypt. With this synergetic fortification we expect not only an end to Egyptian quiescence, but increased friction between Egypt and all other regional players. In particular, Israel will be searching for the means to maintain its balance between the powerful Turkey and the re-emerging Egypt. This will shape all of its foreign  and domestic  policies.


Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR



> *Turkey as regional hegemon--2014:
> Strategic implications for the United States*
> 
> They have industrial and procurement plans aimed at strategic autonomy. Turkey will have a mature military force structure capable of rapid and sustained intervention in the region.
> Turkeys economy will be stronger and its robust industrial base will be self-sufficient enough to compensate for western embargoes. The Turkish infrastructure will accommodate the shifting of military forces to distant borders and will permit the support of those forces. By 2014, it would only be a very short step for Turkey to
> become a regional hegemon.
> To use an overworked phrase, Its not a question of if, its a question of when.
> There will be an increasing risk of unilateral Turkish military or economic interventions in an unstable region that is vital to American security interests.


Turkey as regional hegemon2014: strategic implications for the United States - Turkish Studies


Welcome in Turkey's brave new world in Middle Eurasia.
As an geographical outsider, You have to make a choice and dont let your representatives from Armenian-American districts of USA bark in Congress. Once and for all. 
Otherwise it is the end of the relationship in its current quality.


----------



## toomuchtime_

ekrem said:


> toomuchtime_ said:
> 
> 
> 
> The question is, will Turkey continue to be regarded as an ally by the US and European countries?
> 
> 
> 
> It is not USA that defines how Turkey interacts with countries like UK, Germany, Spain, Italy. All of them have their own interests with Turkey.
> 
> EU-JAPAN trade volume
> = 91 Billion 
> 
> EU-INDIA trade volume
> = 52 Billion 
> 
> EU-TURKEY trade volume
> = 79 Billion 
> 
> http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-18032010-AP/EN/6-18032010-AP-EN.PDF
> 
> 
> 
> 
> toomuchtime_ said:
> 
> 
> 
> Will Turkey be permitted to buy the F-35 and other advanced weapons systems?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> We do only purchase weapons from USA which we
> a) can not produce
> b) other options with technological transfer are still inferior
> 
> In Army or Navy we do not procure anything from USA.
> We produce indigenious or buy from others with technology transfer.
> 
> *Turkey Increasingly Shuns U.S. Weapons*
> Armed Services and Government News - Document Display
> 
> 
> 
> If relations break, we dont give a f* about licences. Chinese-style.
> We will call it F-16-*T* (Turk).
> Pump some 2-3 Billion $ in Aeronautical Faculity of universities to develop an indigenious AESA-Radar for F-16-*T*.
> The rest is no big business, its only the AESA-Radars.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You owe us 28 Billion $. Give me my tax-money back!
> http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
> 
> *USA*
> Public debt
> *84% of GDP*
> Economy of the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> 
> *Turkey*
> Public debt
> 37.1% of GDP[5] (2008 est.)
> Economy of Turkey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> 
> Our state bonds sell independently from the quality of our relations.
> 
> 
> Whether we join EU or not does not change the fact, that we are a power-factor on EU's South-Eastern flank and none of the EU countries make any move against our interests in the Eastern Mediteranean.
> Eastern Mediteranean is a couch, Turkey with her fat ass sits on it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia + Turkey
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If Turkey leaves NATO this will have major geo-politic implications.
> Turkey then becomes a truly free-agent without any restrictions in its geo-security approach to its outer world.
> Maybe we then join SCO and expand Chinese-Russian influence as a catalysator.
> Maybe we upgrade ECO or D-8 into a true Alliance.
> 
> Economic Cooperation Organization - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> Developing 8 Countries - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> 
> Whatever, the outcome will not be good for Washington in geo-politics.
> It also leaves behind a NATO as a pure Christian force. Will be nice propaganda for the Jihadists.
> 
> 
> 
> That's no business of the outer-world.
> It is a business for a foreign nation only if Turkey is defeated on battlefield.
> Otherwise its just talk the talk.
> Turkey is a nation-state, her independence coming from the noble blood of Turks' grandfathers.
> What Turks do within country is Turks' business.
> We can not stop foreigners from "talk the talk", but "walk the walk"-Highway is reserved for Turks.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> quoting STRATFOR on this:
> 
> 
> Turkey and Russia on the Rise | STRATFOR
> 
> 
> Turkey and Russia are the only economical gravity centers in West-Asia.
> The others are in the East:
> - India
> - Thailand (contained by China)
> - South-Korea (contained by China)
> - China
> 
> By projections Turkey will be 10th biggest economical power by 2023 (100th Anniversary of Republic) with a foreign trade of 1,1 Trillion $
> Ticaret Mü?avirli?i | Commercial Counsellor
> 
> Turkey is experiencing her own "Wirtschaftswunder" like West-Germany did in 50's and 60's.
> Wirtschaftswunder - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> 
> Get used to the Turkish menace-mentality.
> 
> 
> Turkish Air Force - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> 
> By 2015 we will be in a position to grant security-guarantees to nations like Lebanon, Jordan or Syria. Equipping them with indigenious solutions ranging from Cruise Missiles over MBT's to Battleships to satellites.
> If they play nice we will also grant them access to space Astronauts boosting their local grandfeelings.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Project code 01-01*: Development of launch roket (145 Million $)
> *Project code 01-02*: Development of space shuttle for manned launches (1 Billion $)
> *Project code 01-03*: Satellite capabilities (400 Million $)
> *Project code 01-04*: Space center (1,1 Billion $)
> 
> 
> *2010*: Begin of Astronaut Education and low-cost launch rocket experiments.
> *2011*: solar system and planetary observation, magnetic field research
> *2013*: scanning comets
> *2014*: space-shuttle launch
> Eomag!: Turkey and Ukraine sign treaty for space cooperation
> 
> 
> *2011*: launch of Göktürk 1 + 2 spy satellites. (military)
> *2012*: launch of 1st Synthetic Aperture Radar Block-1 (military), and Turksat 4A commercial
> *2014*: launch of Türksat 5A (military communication)
> *2016*: launch of Göktürk 3 (military)
> *2016*: launch of Ikaz/Ihbar satellite, infrared ballistic missile launch warn-system (military)
> *2017*: launch of Synthetic Aperture radar Block-2 (military)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Western Asia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmcfxVEwt0I]YouTube - George Friedman Predicts Ottoman Rise[/ame]
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Decade Forecast: 2010-2020*
> 
> Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran will remain issues by 2020, but not defining issues in the region. Two other countries will be more important. Turkey is emerging as a self-confident regional leader, with a strong military and economy. We expect that trend to continue, and see Turkey emerging as the dominant regional power. The growth of Turkish power and influence in the next decade is one reason we feel confident in the decline of the U.S.-jihadist war and the transformation of the Iran issue. The dynamic in the region between the Mediterranean and Iran  and even in the Caucasus and Central Asia  will be redefined by Turkeys re-emergence. Of course, Turkey will feel tremendous internal tensions during this process, as is the case for any emerging power. For Turkey, the relationship between the Ataturkian tradition and the Islamic tradition is the deep fault line. It could falsify this forecast by plunging the country into chaos. While that is possible, we feel that the crisis will be managed over the next decade, albeit with much pain and stress.
> 
> By 2020, Egypt will be changing from the type of country it has been since the 1970s  for the past generation it has lacked the capacity to influence developments beyond its borders. Like Turkey, Egypt is caught between secularism and Islam, and that tension could continue paralyzing it. However, as Turkey rises, Ankara will need a large source of cheap labor and markets for exports. The result will be a coattails effect for Egypt. With this synergetic fortification we expect not only an end to Egyptian quiescence, but increased friction between Egypt and all other regional players. In particular, Israel will be searching for the means to maintain its balance between the powerful Turkey and the re-emerging Egypt. This will shape all of its foreign  and domestic  policies.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Turkey as regional hegemon--2014:
> Strategic implications for the United States*
> 
> They have industrial and procurement plans aimed at strategic autonomy. Turkey will have a mature military force structure capable of rapid and sustained intervention in the region.
> Turkeys economy will be stronger and its robust industrial base will be self-sufficient enough to compensate for western embargoes. The Turkish infrastructure will accommodate the shifting of military forces to distant borders and will permit the support of those forces. By 2014, it would only be a very short step for Turkey to
> become a regional hegemon.
> To use an overworked phrase, Its not a question of if, its a question of when.
> There will be an increasing risk of unilateral Turkish military or economic interventions in an unstable region that is vital to American security interests.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Turkey as regional hegemon2014: strategic implications for the United States - Turkish Studies
> 
> 
> Welcome in Turkey's brave new world in Middle Eurasia.
> As an geographical outsider, You have to make a choice and dont let your representatives from Armenian-American districts of USA bark in Congress. Once and for all.
> Otherwise it is the end of the relationship in its current quality.
Click to expand...


You make my point for me: clearly there is no reason for the US or European countries to regard Turkey as an ally and, as you point out, because of Turkey's increasingly close alliances with anti US Iran and Syria, and by association with the terrorist groups they support, Hamas and Hezbollah, growing reasons to regard Turkey as a potential adversary.


----------



## ekrem

toomuchtime_ said:


> You make my point for me: clearly there is no reason for the US or European countries to regard Turkey as an ally and, as you point out, because of Turkey's increasingly close alliances with anti US Iran and Syria, and by association with the terrorist groups they support, Hamas and Hezbollah, growing reasons to regard Turkey as a potential adversary.



The "Europeans" don't exist. I also think - without attacking you personally - that you do not have detailed knowledge to classify relations between Turkey and each of the member-states of EU. 
The statement is, that we have very friendly relations to some EU-members and not so friendly relations to other EU-members. The "not so friendly"-relations with some of them stem from divergence in the EU-membership issue. Still, socio-economic cooperation advance also with them. 

Speaking of "allies", who gives a f* if any of the EU-members regard Turkey as ally or not?
This question does only have a "theoretical value". 
Turkey is a free-agent to choose its allies.



toomuchtime_ said:


> Turkey's increasingly close alliances with anti US Iran and Syria


We do not have an alliance with either Iran or Syria, there will never be in bilateral context. Turkish position is no position of equal rights regarding alliances within Islamic World. 
We have an Ost-Politik similar to West-Germany in Cold War.
Not to gather in Kuran reading-sessions, but maximize Turkish acendance in world politics in shortest possible time and subdue aimless countries under Turkish guidance. That is the historic and natural balance of the Sunni Middle-East. 
Ostpolitik - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



toomuchtime_ said:


> terrorist groups they support, Hamas and Hezbollah


Hamas is the democratically elected representative of the Gaza-Palestinians. 
As the representative of Gaza, they are our communication-partner to Gaza issues.




> growing reasons to regard Turkey as a potential adversary


We are still anchored in transatlantic community. 
There is a possibility that this will change in future, but not because Turkey is kicked-out.
But Turkey decides to down-grade its relations with USA (Mr. Armenian-Congress), just like she did with Israel. 
Turkey has neither a regional adversary nor there is a regional country capable of playing a containing role.
Turkey's inner dynamics from science to economy have put her into take-off mode. 
From being a "regional power" we now establish ourselves as THE power around. 
This is not something in far future, but we are in the middle of this process.


----------



## ekrem

In Eurasian history the USA is like an alien-UFO that has infiltrated the Eurasian world. 
To better understand, you must imagine USA would not exist. 
In such a picture the historic Turkish activism has 3 components:

- Orthodox world in the North, today Russia
- Christian world in the West, Europe
- Muslim world in the "South", Near and Middle East.

Turkey will never be an adversary to USA, because USA is no historical factor in these areas. Turkey does also not have any plans to send submarines infront of East-Coast of USA like Germany did in WW2. Neither is this in Turkey's capability nor activities to achieve this capability will bring Turkey any gains. It would mean, that we distract energy from the above mentioned 3 areas.

The activism by USA after WW2 in these areas is not something that will last throughout this century. USA will remain Superpower but all 3 areas are ascending in their own right. Then there is the Far East with China which is the only region to pose the greatest risk to challenge US supremacy. Especially when China achieves to subdue the surrounding countries under its total influence, also a very likely possibility. 

Now, if you look around in Middle-East you will see total incompetitive countries like Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Armenia, Azerbaijan etc. etc 
Their GDP (each country) does not even equal Nebraska's GDP.
So even if Turkey achieves to subdue such countries under its control, Turkey still wont be a challenge to USA. 

Now there are 3 questions: 

1. Does Turkey need the USA in dealing with countries the size of Nebraska? Turkey herself is 15 times bigger then Nebraska and is still growing. 

2. Is USA a partner for Turkey in dealing with European countries?
No. 

3. What is then the cooperation area?
The only cooperation area between USA and Turkey is Russia. This cooperation area is also the area which is the historical rule-setter why we even have this kind of preferential relations. 
The difference is, that Russia ain't the GIANT Soviets anymore. 
Also USA would like to see Turkey overtaking workshare within NATO in the Far-East. 
And USA dreams of a US-dog Turkey that patrols and bites for US interests in "Muslim World". 


All this while US-Turkish trade is just 15 Billion $. 
So the current form of relations between USA-Turkey, independent from the Mr. Armenian-Congress issue, is a relation that has not substantial benefits for Turkey. 
The benefits for Turkey are:
- Access to state-of-the-art aviation
- NATO's nuclear sharing agreement

Both benefits were real benefits in Cold-War times. 
In todays world, where Turkey guarantees her independence herself elevating her to have own designs for the periphery, the quality of these benefits are good but no "death or life"-issue.  

So for Turkey to irreversibly stay within transatlantic community is by engaging her.
The main reason the USA supports Turkish EU-Membership. 
Horizontally the relations between USA-Turkey are at its maximum point. Military. 
Now its time to expand relations vertically. 
Despite Turkish socio-economic progress, Turkey is still an importer of Human-based value-added output. Areas the USA can deliver.

If you choose to deliver "Mr. Armenian Congress", we will pass resolutions through our own parliament that puts you in the same sentence with Khmers, Hutsi/Tutsi and Hitler regarding your criminal actions to Mankind of native America.


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## ekrem

ekrem said:


> (...)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Decade Forecast: 2010-2020*
> 
> Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran will remain issues by 2020, but not defining issues in the region. Two other countries will be more important. Turkey is emerging as a self-confident regional leader, with a strong military and economy. We expect that trend to continue, and see Turkey emerging as the dominant regional power. The growth of Turkish power and influence in the next decade is one reason we feel confident in the decline of the U.S.-jihadist war and the transformation of the Iran issue. The dynamic in the region between the Mediterranean and Iran  and even in the Caucasus and Central Asia  will be redefined by Turkeys re-emergence. Of course, Turkey will feel tremendous internal tensions during this process, as is the case for any emerging power. For Turkey, the relationship between the Ataturkian tradition and the Islamic tradition is the deep fault line. It could falsify this forecast by plunging the country into chaos. While that is possible, we feel that the crisis will be managed over the next decade, albeit with much pain and stress.
> 
> By 2020, Egypt will be changing from the type of country it has been since the 1970s  for the past generation it has lacked the capacity to influence developments beyond its borders. Like Turkey, Egypt is caught between secularism and Islam, and that tension could continue paralyzing it. However, as Turkey rises, Ankara will need a large source of cheap labor and markets for exports. The result will be a coattails effect for Egypt. With this synergetic fortification we expect not only an end to Egyptian quiescence, but increased friction between Egypt and all other regional players. In particular, Israel will be searching for the means to maintain its balance between the powerful Turkey and the re-emerging Egypt. This will shape all of its foreign  and domestic  policies.
> 
> 
> 
> Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR
> (...)
Click to expand...


In this context:

*Turkish investments in Egypt amount to $1 bln in 2009*
Egypt's commercial consul in Istanbul said on Wednesday that the investments carried out by Turkish entrepreneurs in Egypt had reached *1.1 billion USD in 2009*.
(...)
Turkish investments in Egypt amount to $1 bln in 2009 [ WORLD BULLETIN- TURKEY NEWS, WORLD NEWS ]


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## ekrem

International Crisis Group's Hugh Pope says, Turkey's economy is already more the 
half size of whole Middle East and North Africa combined. 

The article is published in "Al Majalla", which claims to be the leading Arabian Political Magazine.

Screenshots of the article:


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## ekrem

> Turkey is so strong militarily that neither the Russians nor the Iranians would dream of messing with it. In fact, both countries are very solicitous of Turkey and make sure they dont alienate it. Youre really looking at the 600-lb. gorilla of the region.



Quote by STRATFOR CEO, George Friedman
Stratfor?s George Friedman: Long Turkey, Short China - Columns/Features - IndexUniverse.com - ETFs, Index Funds, Indexes


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