# Time to short Stocks!



## Zander

I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.  

Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08. 

Best of luck!


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## Revere

You think the Fed will stop giving free money to the banks to buy stocks and thus their bubble will burst soon?


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## uscitizen

Shorts stocks?

Fruit of the Loom or Hanes?


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## Zander

Revere said:


> You think the Fed will stop giving free money to the banks to buy stocks and thus their bubble will burst soon?



One word.....DEFLATION.


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## Revere

I think after the election the government is going to stop bailing out everything and everyone, including the stock market.


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## Toro

Zander said:


> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!



What makes you think we're topping?

I don't think you're necessarily wrong.  I'm sitting mainly in cash.  But I don't see any topping going on.  Maybe it will end tomorrow but right now I see a continued melt-up.


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## Toro

Zander said:


> Revere said:
> 
> 
> 
> You think the Fed will stop giving free money to the banks to buy stocks and thus their bubble will burst soon?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> One word.....DEFLATION.
Click to expand...


Didn't you say that when gold was at $1000?


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## Zander

Toro said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Revere said:
> 
> 
> 
> You think the Fed will stop giving free money to the banks to buy stocks and thus their bubble will burst soon?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> One word.....DEFLATION.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Didn't you say that when gold was at $1000?
Click to expand...


Not quite -but I was bearish at around $1150 and I am still bearish.  Bubble anyone?


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## Revere

Obama will stop propping up the stock market after the election, which he has done by handing banks free money to buy stocks.


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## Toro

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> One word.....DEFLATION.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Didn't you say that when gold was at $1000?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Not quite -but I was bearish at around $1150 and I am still bearish.  Bubble anyone?
Click to expand...


That's coming.

But why do you think we're topping?  I've been looking at my Bloomberg all afternoon, watching.  I even put on a euro short, which would pay off if stocks did top.  But it doesn't appear to be topping at all, at least not to me.


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## Zander

Toro said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What makes you think we're topping?
> 
> I don't think you're necessarily wrong.  I'm sitting mainly in cash.  But I don't see any topping going on.  Maybe it will end tomorrow but right now I see a continued melt-up.
Click to expand...


Bullish sentiment for stocks hit 87% a on September 20th according to www.trade-futures.com


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## Revere

Obama will abandon any pretense of propping up markets when Republicans are in the majority and he can blame them.

Not to mention the chair that will get kicked out from underneath investment when taxes go up on 1/1/2011.


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## uscitizen

I will be selling some Eagles tomorrow, unless the seller wants to accept Eagles directly for payment?  Perhaps he is a speculator and will give me a bit of a break for paying in gold?


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## topspin

a couple things, based on your posts your no where near smart enough to do this.

 No regrets, shit I made 40% in the time span you were in cash. I'd regret the shit out of missing that.


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## Douger

Zander said:


> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!


Good choice on the ETF's.
Go check out iShares and look into some internationals.

iShares MSCI Chile Investable Market Index Fund (ECH): Performance - iShares


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## Mad Scientist

Zander said:


> Revere said:
> 
> 
> 
> You think the Fed will stop giving free money to the banks to buy stocks and thus their bubble will burst soon?
> 
> 
> 
> One word.....DEFLATION.
Click to expand...

How could we have deflation whe the Fed is all set to "monitize the debt" by printing more money? Seems we'd have inflation instead, as well as a extremely devalued dollar.

So it looks like gold is still the best investment for the time being right?


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## Toro

What's interesting is that government bonds have been selling off the past week.  QE is all about monetizing government debt.  Government bonds should be catching a bid, because it is they that are going to be purchased by the Fed, not stocks or bonds.

The QE playbook has been to buy bonds, stocks and gold while selling the dollar.  A normal recovery playbook would be to buy stocks and the dollar and sell gold and bonds.  Neither is happening.  The only thing I can think of is that the market is now beginning to price in inflation, which is what would cause Tbonds to fall and everything else to rise.  But corporate bonds should get hit too, and that's not happening.

The buying seems like a frenzied panic to the upside to me.


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## editec

Toro said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Revere said:
> 
> 
> 
> You think the Fed will stop giving free money to the banks to buy stocks and thus their bubble will burst soon?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> One word.....DEFLATION.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Didn't you say that when gold was at $1000?
Click to expand...

 

Gold is rising, yes.  That price is running on the fear (of future inflation)factor more than because of inflation.

But things of real value (like real estate) are continuing to price down.

The perceived losses in RE values far exceed the aggregate value of the rising prices of gold.

Yes, we are still in a period of deflation.

People still aren't spending.  Sales are still down.  They are attempting to jettison excessive debt.

Deflation is still the problem.

I don't know what it will take for this trend to reverse itself.

Some economics think another massive stimulus (hopefully one that is corrected targeted this time) might stem that tide.

I think the problems are more fundamental than that, alhtough I don't doubt it might help somewhat.


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## Zander

Mad Scientist said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Revere said:
> 
> 
> 
> You think the Fed will stop giving free money to the banks to buy stocks and thus their bubble will burst soon?
> 
> 
> 
> One word.....DEFLATION.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> How could we have deflation whe the Fed is all set to "monitize the debt" by printing more money? Seems we'd have inflation instead, as well as a extremely devalued dollar.
> 
> So it looks like gold is still the best investment for the time being right?
Click to expand...


We have been experiencing deflation for the past year and a half. The Fed's QE efforts have not really stopped the falling prices  as much as partially masked it -  Just look at the prices of things in "ounces of gold"  or the prices of real estate and you'll get the idea.  That being said, I think that over the long term, owning some gold (5-10% of your portfolio)  is a good idea.  I am extremely bearish on stocks right now - and expect to see a sharp move downward over the next weeks and months. If I am right, I will make a great profit, but if  I am wrong I only have a small portion of my portfolio in play - I am still 90% in  cash and t-bills - so this is purely a speculation on my part.   Best of luck!


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## topspin

we have had inflation, just lower than normal.
 Your about to see what the fed can do to raise asset prices in about 2 years.


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## william the wie

Toro said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Didn't you say that when gold was at $1000?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not quite -but I was bearish at around $1150 and I am still bearish.  Bubble anyone?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> That's coming.
> 
> But why do you think we're topping?  I've been looking at my Bloomberg all afternoon, watching.  I even put on a euro short, which would pay off if stocks did top.  But it doesn't appear to be topping at all, at least not to me.
Click to expand...

 The insider sell/buy ratio does indicate a major correction ahead but as to when my crystal ball is rather cloudy. I will stick with leap straddles. There is a major correction about once every 16 quarters so I put in about a 1/8th bet per year on the assumption that I can add to my bet if the market moves my way and can stand the loss if it doesn't.


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## Zander

william the wie said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> Not quite -but I was bearish at around $1150 and I am still bearish.  Bubble anyone?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's coming.
> 
> But why do you think we're topping?  I've been looking at my Bloomberg all afternoon, watching.  I even put on a euro short, which would pay off if stocks did top.  But it doesn't appear to be topping at all, at least not to me.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> The insider sell/buy ratio does indicate a major correction ahead but as to when my crystal ball is rather cloudy. I will stick with leap straddles. There is a major correction about once every 16 quarters so I put in about a 1/8th bet per year on the assumption that I can add to my bet if the market moves my way and can stand the loss if it doesn't.
Click to expand...


Personally, I like straight 'put' options on the SP500 or OEX  better than a leap straddle right now. I'd buy deep out of the money with a June Expiration. More upside, less downside,  lower premium.  How far out do you buy the LEAPS?


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## topspin

LOL market up 125 today


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## william the wie

Zander said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> That's coming.
> 
> But why do you think we're topping?  I've been looking at my Bloomberg all afternoon, watching.  I even put on a euro short, which would pay off if stocks did top.  But it doesn't appear to be topping at all, at least not to me.
> 
> 
> 
> The insider sell/buy ratio does indicate a major correction ahead but as to when my crystal ball is rather cloudy. I will stick with leap straddles. There is a major correction about once every 16 quarters so I put in about a 1/8th bet per year on the assumption that I can add to my bet if the market moves my way and can stand the loss if it doesn't.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Personally, I like straight 'put' options on the SP500 or OEX  better than a leap straddle right now. I'd buy deep out of the money with a June Expiration. More upside, less downside,  lower premium.  How far out do you buy the LEAPS?
Click to expand...

 one year minimum currently and I am considering two years. With all of the Fed intervention going on I can be certain that something bad will happen in the not too distant future but I am unable to determine what. The DJIA is 64% overvalued in terms of dividend yield, insiders are dumping and the Dow is going up on ever decreasing volume. Deflation could hit hard and eventually it will due to collapsing asset prices. Inflation could also hit hard and eventually it will too due to quantitative easing. But as to what will hit first I am clueless.


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## Zander

william the wie said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> 
> The insider sell/buy ratio does indicate a major correction ahead but as to when my crystal ball is rather cloudy. I will stick with leap straddles. There is a major correction about once every 16 quarters so I put in about a 1/8th bet per year on the assumption that I can add to my bet if the market moves my way and can stand the loss if it doesn't.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Personally, I like straight 'put' options on the SP500 or OEX  better than a leap straddle right now. I'd buy deep out of the money with a June Expiration. More upside, less downside,  lower premium.  How far out do you buy the LEAPS?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> one year minimum currently and I am considering two years. With all of the Fed intervention going on I can be certain that something bad will happen in the not too distant future but I am unable to determine what. The DJIA is 64% overvalued in terms of dividend yield, insiders are dumping and the Dow is going up on ever decreasing volume. Deflation could hit hard and eventually it will due to collapsing asset prices. Inflation could also hit hard and eventually it will too due to quantitative easing. But as to what will hit first I am clueless.
Click to expand...


That 'uncertainty' is why I went with the inverse fund as opposed to options - no time risk. I do not see a lot of upside potential for stock prices especially in the short term (3-6 months) .  Today was  a great example  - The SP 500 started with a 16 point rise  - then ended the day only 8 points higher on low volume.  The bear market rally is running on fumes......


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## Toro

Volume has been lousy but was big today.  NYSE Composite volume was the largest in three months.  As Japan opens up, the euro and gold are spiking hard and I'm going to get stopped out of my euro short.

This is a frenzied melt-up.  I agree that there are several indicators suggesting at least a near-term peak, but in a melt-up (or a melt-down) indicators get thrown out the window, and you can get your head cut off pretty quickly if you are on the opposite side.

I'm out of my gold long but am thinking of putting it back on.  I believe that gold will one day enter bubble territory, and enormous gains will be made.  I would kick myself if that bubble move were to happen now.

Since Sept 1, every piece of news has been good news.  Better than expected news causes the market to go up because it shows that the economy is not falling apart.  Worse than expected news causes the market to go up because it increases the chances of QE.  

This is so fucked up.  It will end badly, but my job is to make money, not political pronouncements.


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## Toro

Zander said:


> [
> That 'uncertainty' is why I went with the inverse fund as opposed to options - no time risk. I do not see a lot of upside potential for stock prices especially in the short term (3-6 months) .  Today was  a great example  - The SP 500 started with a 16 point rise  - then ended the day only 8 points higher on low volume.  The bear market rally is running on fumes......



Zander

Be very careful with those leveraged inverse funds.  The decay from the optionality and volatility can be devastating.  There were several of these things which actually declined when the market collapsed, even though one would have expected them to rise substantially.  I use them, but I dump them and quickly cut my losses if I think I'm wrong.


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## Paulie

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> One word.....DEFLATION.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Didn't you say that when gold was at $1000?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Not quite -but I was bearish at around $1150 and I am still bearish.  Bubble anyone?
Click to expand...


Bubbles are typically based on irrational speculative actions.

Gold has every fundamental reason to continue higher right now.  There's nothing irrational about it.


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## Toro

Maybe I won't get stopped out.  

I own Nov EUO 19 calls, which normally trade a few hundred a day.  Someone came in and bought 30,715 calls today.  Someone, probably much smarter than I am, is taking a very big bet that the euro is going to fall soon.


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## Zander

Paulie said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Didn't you say that when gold was at $1000?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not quite -but I was bearish at around $1150 and I am still bearish.  Bubble anyone?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Bubbles are typically based on irrational speculative actions.
> 
> Gold has every fundamental reason to continue higher right now.  There's nothing irrational about it.
Click to expand...


Then buy it or hold it. 

I am still bearish on gold.  It is a fear based, irrational bubble that, like all bubbles, will end badly.  Time will tell......


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## Zander

Toro said:


> Maybe I won't get stopped out.
> 
> I own Nov EUO 19 calls, which normally trade a few hundred a day.  Someone came in and bought 30,715 calls today.  Someone, probably much smarter than I am, is taking a very big bet that the euro is going to fall soon.



The daily sentiment on the US Dollar is 97% bearish.........


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## Paulie

Zander said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> Not quite -but I was bearish at around $1150 and I am still bearish.  Bubble anyone?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bubbles are typically based on irrational speculative actions.
> 
> Gold has every fundamental reason to continue higher right now.  There's nothing irrational about it.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Then buy it or hold it.
> 
> I am still bearish on gold.  It is a fear based, irrational bubble that, like all bubbles, will end badly.  Time will tell......
Click to expand...


What's irrational about it?


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## Toro

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Maybe I won't get stopped out.
> 
> I own Nov EUO 19 calls, which normally trade a few hundred a day.  Someone came in and bought 30,715 calls today.  Someone, probably much smarter than I am, is taking a very big bet that the euro is going to fall soon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The daily sentiment on the US Dollar is 97% bearish.........
Click to expand...


Yeah, I know.  And since I posted that, the euro is up 87 pips in 2 hours.







PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM   IS THE DOLLAR RALLY ABOUT TO KILL RISK ASSETS?


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## Zander

Paulie said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> Bubbles are typically based on irrational speculative actions.
> 
> Gold has every fundamental reason to continue higher right now.  There's nothing irrational about it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Then buy it or hold it.
> 
> I am still bearish on gold.  It is a fear based, irrational bubble that, like all bubbles, will end badly.  Time will tell......
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> What's irrational about it?
Click to expand...


What isn't?

EDIT: just because it is a bubble doesn't mean you can't make a profit from it. It might go to $3000 an ounce.... Too much risk for me...maybe not for you.


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## william the wie

I think the market is illustrating one of the few Keynesianisms not invalidated by advances in behavioral, evolutionary and neuro-economics:

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."


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## KissMy

Don't try to short this market even though all signs point to correction. Toro tried to short it & I shorted the biggest swinging dick in the DOW, Caterpillar CAT last week at $80. It dropped to $77 & then QE2 euphoria hit & it gapped up. I sold out at $78. So I made a paltry $2 but the stock is back above $80 so it is not worth the risk.

Lighten up on Cash & Go Heavy & Stay Long Gold. The Fed is going to knock Gold & Silver out of the park. Precious metals are & will continue to far outpace all but a few stocks until the Fed lets interest rates climb above 10%.

This scenario happened in the 1904, 1932, 1941, 1974 & 1980 when about 2 troy ounces of Gold equaled the DOW. If current trend-lines hold 5ozt Gold will equal the DOW shortly. At current DOW price Gold will climb to a minimum of $2,222+ per ozt. We are experiencing a cascading dollar crash.


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## topspin

you can get burned in gold as well, obviously it's had several periods when it tanked.
 there is still tons of fear of equities which means there are plenty of people left to get back in stocks.


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## editec

Zander said:


> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!


 
So did you get a margin call yesterday?


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## Douger

editec said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> One word.....DEFLATION.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Didn't you say that when gold was at $1000?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> Gold is rising, yes.  That price is running on the fear (of future inflation)factor more than because of inflation.
> 
> But things of real value (like real estate) are continuing to price down.
> 
> The perceived losses in RE values far exceed the aggregate value of the rising prices of gold.
> 
> Yes, we are still in a period of deflation.
> 
> People still aren't spending.  Sales are still down.  They are attempting to jettison excessive debt.
> 
> Deflation is still the problem.
> 
> I don't know what it will take for this trend to reverse itself.
> 
> Some economics think another massive stimulus (hopefully one that is corrected targeted this time) might stem that tide.
> 
> I think the problems are more fundamental than that, alhtough I don't doubt it might help somewhat.
Click to expand...

Gold is rising because the Empires dollar is monopoly money.
Copper, nickel, cadmium,crystalline silicon, zinc and aluminio are necessary for progress. 
Gold and silver are for it's proponents. Goldberg and Silverstein.


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## uscitizen

I do not think there is enough gold in existence to equal all the gold "bought".


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## Toro

Bullish 

Contrarian analysis is bullish on stocks Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch


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## Toro

Bearish

Smoothed Breadth and Market Dead Air &#8211; Internal Divergences | Afraid to Trade.com Blog
McCllelan Oscillator Divergence?


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## Toro

Leveraged ETFs are good only for short-term trades.

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/volatility-effects/multi-year-performance-of-leveraged-etfs/


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## uscitizen

Ok I stocked up on shorts, what now?


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## Zander

editec said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So did you get a margin call yesterday?
Click to expand...


No. This is an inverse index  ETF -  It fluctuates in value like a mutual fund. Yesterday it went to $27.67 a share. so i lost 41 cents per share.


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## Toro

For the bears, two groups that have been doing poorly over the past few days have been the financials and the retailers.  The financials you can put off to the foreclosure mess but the retailers are a little harder.  You can see it in the chart of RTH.


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## william the wie

Yesterday I saw a column that said the market would head up until Jan. 15 and I never saw an explanation for the date. This market is getting crazier.


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## Revere

Obama will burn what's left of the American free enterprise system to the ground after he loses his majorities.


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## Paulie

Zander said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> Then buy it or hold it.
> 
> I am still bearish on gold.  It is a fear based, irrational bubble that, like all bubbles, will end badly.  Time will tell......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What's irrational about it?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> What isn't?
> 
> EDIT: just because it is a bubble doesn't mean you can't make a profit from it. It might go to $3000 an ounce.... Too much risk for me...maybe not for you.
Click to expand...

I'm asking you...what specifically is irrational about the rise in the price of gold right now?


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## Toro

Another 9635 calls on the EUO were purchased today.  That's 40,000 over the past two days, accounting for something like 96% of the volume.  

Somebody is making a very bearish bet on the euro.  Its the only thing that is keeping me from getting shaken out.

Also, JP Morgan's newly issued bonds sold off today, another bearish sign.


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## Zander

Paulie said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> What's irrational about it?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What isn't?
> 
> EDIT: just because it is a bubble doesn't mean you can't make a profit from it. It might go to $3000 an ounce.... Too much risk for me...maybe not for you.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I'm asking you...what specifically is irrational about the rise in the price of gold right now?
Click to expand...



First let me tell you, I am not invested in gold.  I could not care less about it, or the price that people are willing to pay for it.  As far as I am concerned, it is little more than a shiny metal with scant few uses beyond jewelry or as as store of  "perceived" value for fearful investors.   Some people think it is wise to have a portion of your assets in gold - good for them.  Personally,  I don't own any except for a few pieces of jewelry.  And I have no intentions of buying any, now or in the future.  

That being said.... When I see the "investor" demand exceed "jewelry" and industry demand for the first time n history - I view that as "irrational".  When there are advertisements on every available media touting the "safety" and "security" of GOLD!!! as an investment - I see that as irrational.  When I view the actual 30 year return on gold as investment - I see it as a lousy, irrational investment. When I see the current deflationary cycle devastating the prices of every other commodity asset class across the board except precious metals - I see that as irrational.  Could I be wrong? Maybe.  But since I have ZERO vested interest, I simply do not care. 

So now I am asking you...what specifically is "rational" about the rise in price of gold right now?


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## Paulie

Zander said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> What isn't?
> 
> EDIT: just because it is a bubble doesn't mean you can't make a profit from it. It might go to $3000 an ounce.... Too much risk for me...maybe not for you.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm asking you...what specifically is irrational about the rise in the price of gold right now?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> First let me tell you, I am not invested in gold.  I could not care less about it, or the price that people are willing to pay for it.  As far as I am concerned, it is little more than a shiny metal with scant few uses beyond jewelry or as as store of  "perceived" value for fearful investors.   Some people think it is wise to have a portion of your assets in gold - good for them.  Personally,  I don't own any except for a few pieces of jewelry.  And I have no intentions of buying any, now or in the future.
> 
> That being said.... When I see the "investor" demand exceed "jewelry" and industry demand for the first time n history - I view that as "irrational".  When there are advertisements on every available media touting the "safety" and "security" of GOLD!!! as an investment - I see that as irrational.  When I view the actual 30 year return on gold as investment - I see it as a lousy, irrational investment. When I see the current deflationary cycle devastating the prices of every other commodity asset class across the board except precious metals - I see that as irrational.  Could I be wrong? Maybe.  But since I have ZERO vested interest, I simply do not care.
> 
> So now I am asking you...what specifically is "rational" about the rise in price of gold right now?
Click to expand...


Well I suppose I would respond first by saying that your own personal feelings about what gold actually represents means little in regards to the rationality of its price action.  It's been the store of wealth for centuries.  

I also note that money creation is the highest it's been in history, so that lends rationality to the current demand.  To me, TV ads mean nothing, other than a typical attempt to capitalize on a trend.  I don't see how or why it's an indication of anything in particular, other than someone wants to make a buck off of it.  

I personally believe that there will be far more industrial uses for gold in the future, but I don't count that in my technical or fundamental outlook on it.  It's just a personal belief.  I've studied about it to an extent, and there are technological aspects to it that I feel we can harness in our future.  One of which being that it can reflect infrared light and resist heat.  There are many possibilities there, including uses in space.

There will come a point when banks will lend again and demand for credit will return.  I don't trust that the Fed will properly exit from the positions in its now unprecedented balance sheet, because it NEVER has.  We are looking at a possibility of very serious inflation in the future.  The fact that it's not even materializing in consumer prices yet, and gold is still continuing higher, is a bullish signal to me.

I see a definite possibility for a downward correction, but I see higher highs and higher lows for the indefinite future.  The corrections will only serve to offer investors and traders better entry points.

I could change my entire outlook tomorrow, but I probably will not unless I see some serious moves by the Fed.  Purchasing more treasuries is certainly not one of the moves I would be looking for.  That is inflationary and bullish for gold.  

When the Fed starts selling its assets, we'll talk about declines in gold prices.


----------



## william the wie

Toro said:


> Another 9635 calls on the EUO were purchased today.  That's 40,000 over the past two days, accounting for something like 96% of the volume.
> 
> Somebody is making a very bearish bet on the euro.  Its the only thing that is keeping me from getting shaken out.
> 
> Also, JP Morgan's newly issued bonds sold off today, another bearish sign.


 Use very simple terms for your explanation please. 

The call seller is getting extra yield on his holdings.

The  call buyer is hedging against exchange rate risk.

Speculators are doing their thing on both sides of the trade to provide liquidity.

the upward trend is bearish but who is making the bearish bet?


----------



## Paulie

Not to mention Zander, the rest of the world is debasing their currencies as well.

Gold is rising against the world's currencies in particular, while central banks around the world dilute their money supplies.

If that's not bullish for gold, I don't know what is.


----------



## Toro

william the wie said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Another 9635 calls on the EUO were purchased today.  That's 40,000 over the past two days, accounting for something like 96% of the volume.
> 
> Somebody is making a very bearish bet on the euro.  Its the only thing that is keeping me from getting shaken out.
> 
> Also, JP Morgan's newly issued bonds sold off today, another bearish sign.
> 
> 
> 
> Use very simple terms for your explanation please.
> 
> The call seller is getting extra yield on his holdings.
> 
> The  call buyer is hedging against exchange rate risk.
> 
> Speculators are doing their thing on both sides of the trade to provide liquidity.
> 
> the upward trend is bearish but who is making the bearish bet?
Click to expand...


It might be a hedge but it is unlikely.  It is probably a short-term directional bet.  

The EUO is a double inverse ETF tracking the euro.  Most hedging of the euro occurs in the three-month forward futures contract.  If you want to hedge, it is unlikely that you would do so with calls on a product which is enormously inefficient, given the volatility decay of the ETF, not to mention other option issues such as delta hedging.  It is so much easier to hedge in the futures market, which is far more liquid.  Average daily volume of all the options on the EUO is maybe 1000 contracts up and down the chain for both calls and puts.  It is highly unlikely one would buy 40,000 contracts in this market when spreads are generally wide to hedge.  However, it is a great way to make a leveraged near-term bet.

Again, I cannot be certain that it is not a hedge.  However, it has been my experience when I see huge options buying in the ETF market, the market has tended to go the way of the bet.  For example, there was massive buying of October calls with a 130 strike on the GLD at the end of September.  In January, there was massive put buying on the SLV expiring a couple months out just before silver got whacked.  Doesn't mean the euro is going to fall, but it makes me think there is a good probability that someone knows something.


----------



## Douger

Wanna do some portfolio screen shots and photoshop out the account numbers and names ?
I B winnin an shit.


----------



## Toro

Zander said:


> That being said.... When I see the "investor" demand exceed "jewelry" and industry demand for the first time n history - I view that as "irrational".  When there are advertisements on every available media touting the "safety" and "security" of GOLD!!! as an investment - I see that as irrational.  When I view the actual 30 year return on gold as investment - I see it as a lousy, irrational investment. When I see the current deflationary cycle devastating the prices of every other commodity asset class across the board except precious metals - I see that as irrational.  Could I be wrong? Maybe.  But since I have ZERO vested interest, I simply do not care.
> 
> So now I am asking you...what specifically is "rational" about the rise in price of gold right now?



A few things.  

I haven't updated my data, but last time I checked nearly a year ago, since the US officially abandoned the gold standard on August 15, 1971, gold has returned about the same as the S&P500, including dividends reinvested.  My guess is that nothing has changed since I updated my data.  Doesn't mean gold will outperform stocks over the next 30 years - I would expect the opposite in fact - but gold has done well over the past three decades.  It has been a great diversifier.  If at the beginning of each year since 1971 an investor invested equally between gold and stocks and rebalancing at the beginning of every year, one would have earned a higher return with lower volatility than investing solely in stocks or gold.

As I've said before, when betting on deflation or inflation, bet on the guys with the printing presses, especially when they explicitly tell you that they want to create inflation.

I can also tell you that money managers have NOT bought into gold.  A handful of vocal hedge funds have, but I would estimate that gold stocks make up less than 1% of the typical mutual fund's asset base.  We are miles away from the public being all in.

I think precious metals will have a bubble.  I just pray to God its not right now because I sold my position last week.


----------



## Toro

Well, what my EUO call buyer "knew" was that Bernanke was going to distance himself from QE2 at his speech today.  That is wrong.  Thus, I will be looking to exit this position at a loss.  

However, it will be interesting to watch the market reaction.  The market has gone straight up over the past two months, primarily on further Fed action.  Do they sell the news or does it continue on its rapid ascent?


----------



## Toro

Its going to be an interesting day.  Risk assets spiked on the release of Bernanke's text at 8.15am but have sold off since, or at least they have during the past half hour.


----------



## editec

The banksters are in trouble again.

REad this AM in the NY times that thanks to the foreclosure moritoriums, the big banks can expect to lose 1.5 Billion per quarter and they think that this moritorium could drag out for the next 5 YEARS!

I cannot believe that the moritoriums will last that long, but that's what some mavens are predicting 

If they do a lot of these banks are toast


----------



## KissMy

Toro said:


> Its going to be an interesting day.  Risk assets spiked on the release of Bernanke's text at 8.15am but have sold off since, or at least they have during the past half hour.



It's called Buy on the Rumor & Sell on the News or Profit Taking or Getting out on Top.


----------



## william the wie

editec said:


> The banksters are in trouble again.
> 
> REad this AM in the NY times that thanks to the foreclosure moritoriums, the big banks can expect to lose 1.5 Billion per quarter and they think that this moritorium could drag out for the next 5 YEARS!
> 
> I cannot believe that the moritoriums will last that long, but that's what some mavens are predicting
> 
> If they do a lot of these banks are toast


 That's the good news.


----------



## KissMy

william the wie said:


> editec said:
> 
> 
> 
> The banksters are in trouble again.
> 
> REad this AM in the NY times that thanks to the foreclosure moritoriums, the big banks can expect to lose 1.5 Billion per quarter and they think that this moritorium could drag out for the next 5 YEARS!
> 
> I cannot believe that the moritoriums will last that long, but that's what some mavens are predicting
> 
> If they do a lot of these banks are toast
> 
> 
> 
> That's the good news.
Click to expand...


This is chock-full of moral hazards but I think this is good news for consumer stocks & bad for banks & the dollar. This will lead to a lot of people getting free homes or their mortgage wiped out. This will decrease foreclosures & increase housing prices. There are going to be lot of discretionary dollars to spend by the people who's mortgages get wiped out. Inflation is going to hit because of this alone not to mention QE2.

Government has propped up Fannie / Freddie & Banks just long enough for the rich & powerful to get their money out. Who knows what BS will happen next. I believe we have been & are under the control of a fascist oligarchy. The economy is fucked except for those in power at the top. The game is rigged & the bankers who packaged the CDO's know which CDO's contain all the undocumented bad mortgages. It is a minefield & they have the map.


----------



## KissMy

Some Central Bank or Country is dumping Gold when the price gets to $1380 per ozt. It bumps up to $1386 but heavy trading & serious headwinds at the $1380 level over the past 3 days.

Fed Chairman Bernanke did not help things this morning with his pitch for further action by the US central bank. Bernanke's tone was a bit on the &#8216;fuzzy&#8217; side as markets were concerned. Market expectations have gone into totally &#8216;extreme&#8217; mode and any (even slightest) disappointment from the Fed could spell disaster. The one-way betting street funds cannot stomach anything but that which has already been baked into the fruitcake. Unconditional surrender by the Fed is the only thing rising markets will accept.

That vagueness in language, even the slightest change from &#8216;aggressive&#8217; towards &#8216;cautious&#8217; in Fed-speak could pull the speculative rug out from under this smug, one-way betting market. A couple of improved sets of economic statistics (consumer prices up 0.1% and Empire State manufacturing showing a notable 15.7% amelioration in October) were enough to ignite a small round of profit-taking in precious metals soon after Bernanke's comments.


----------



## topspin

Zanders ass should be puckering about the wrong short just about now.


----------



## Paulie

Zander you still in that position?


----------



## Toro

I covered my euro short this afternoon.  That probably means the dollar is about to bottom.


----------



## Zander

Paulie said:


> Zander you still in that position?



Yeah, I am still holding it. I've lost about a 60 cents per share...but I have lots of patience...so far!


----------



## Old Rocks

Zander said:


> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!



Dang, if I had listened to all of your yap, I would be broke by now.


----------



## CrusaderFrank

Faz


----------



## Zander

Old Rocks said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dang, if I had listened to all of your yap, I would be broke by now.
Click to expand...


Huh??  I have been earning a risk free return in cash and t-bills.  Just recently I took a very small portion of my money and invested it in an inverse ETF that goes up when stocks go down and vice versa.  I think stocks are heading lower and am betting on it.  So far I have lost about 60 cents per share on paper.  Maybe that would make you go broke?? It certainly won't effect my lifestyle.......


----------



## topspin

Yeah, I had you pegged wrong Zander. I thought you were old and all about safety. Buying shorts is about as risky a WAGER you can make in the market. 
 Personally I'm much more conservative, nothing but blue chips for me.


----------



## Paulie

topspin said:


> Yeah, I had you pegged wrong Zander. I thought you were old and all about safety. Buying shorts is about as risky a WAGER you can make in the market.
> Personally I'm much more conservative, nothing but blue chips for me.



He bought a short ETF, much different from an actual short sell.


----------



## editec

Zander said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> What isn't?
> 
> EDIT: just because it is a bubble doesn't mean you can't make a profit from it. It might go to $3000 an ounce.... Too much risk for me...maybe not for you.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm asking you...what specifically is irrational about the rise in the price of gold right now?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> First let me tell you, I am not invested in gold. I could not care less about it, or the price that people are willing to pay for it. As far as I am concerned, it is little more than a shiny metal with scant few uses beyond jewelry or as as store of "perceived" value for fearful investors. Some people think it is wise to have a portion of your assets in gold - good for them. Personally, I don't own any except for a few pieces of jewelry. And I have no intentions of buying any, now or in the future.
> 
> That being said.... When I see the "investor" demand exceed "jewelry" and industry demand for the first time n history - I view that as "irrational". When there are advertisements on every available media touting the "safety" and "security" of GOLD!!! as an investment - I see that as irrational. When I view the actual 30 year return on gold as investment - I see it as a lousy, irrational investment. When I see the current deflationary cycle devastating the prices of every other commodity asset class across the board except precious metals - I see that as irrational. Could I be wrong? Maybe. But since I have ZERO vested interest, I simply do not care.
> 
> So now I am asking you...what specifically is "rational" about the rise in price of gold right now?
Click to expand...

 
You know, I agree with that analysis_ a lot._

But here's the thing...markets aren't entirely moving based on fundamentals.  They're also moving (and moving big time... sometimes) based on perception.

And the perception is that there is great risk of hyperinflation.

Yeah, I know, that doesn't make sense given that deflation is the current state of affairs.

But the people buying gold think that the deflation isn't going to last.

They believe that governments spending will initiate hyper inflation and sense that if they're in the right investment (gold and precious metals) they stand to make a lot of money when that hyper-inflation kicks in.

*Which then begs the question, if we go into a period of hyperinflation will they then SELL their gold to get those then even more worthless dollars?*

I cannot entirely understand why they would, but let's assume that they believe that during a period of hyper-inflation, they think they can TIME their sales of gold so that they sell it at the top of the inflationary cycle, and then enjoy the benefit of having DOLLARS as the specie DEFLATES.

That what they think they're going to do, I suppose.

That or they believe that the dollar is just going to lose all value in which case they'd have better taken POSSESSION of that gold, *because, right now, I have absolute confidence that the gold dealers are selling GOLD they don't really have.*


----------



## Paulie

editec said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm asking you...what specifically is irrational about the rise in the price of gold right now?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> First let me tell you, I am not invested in gold. I could not care less about it, or the price that people are willing to pay for it. As far as I am concerned, it is little more than a shiny metal with scant few uses beyond jewelry or as as store of "perceived" value for fearful investors. Some people think it is wise to have a portion of your assets in gold - good for them. Personally, I don't own any except for a few pieces of jewelry. And I have no intentions of buying any, now or in the future.
> 
> That being said.... When I see the "investor" demand exceed "jewelry" and industry demand for the first time n history - I view that as "irrational". When there are advertisements on every available media touting the "safety" and "security" of GOLD!!! as an investment - I see that as irrational. When I view the actual 30 year return on gold as investment - I see it as a lousy, irrational investment. When I see the current deflationary cycle devastating the prices of every other commodity asset class across the board except precious metals - I see that as irrational. Could I be wrong? Maybe. But since I have ZERO vested interest, I simply do not care.
> 
> So now I am asking you...what specifically is "rational" about the rise in price of gold right now?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> You know, I agree with that analysis_ a lot._
> 
> But here's the thing...markets aren't entirely moving based on fundamentals.  They're also moving (and moving big time... sometimes) based on perception.
> 
> And the perception is that there is great risk of hyperinflation.
> 
> Yeah, I know, that doesn't make sense given that deflation is the current state of affairs.
> 
> But the people buying gold think that the deflation isn't going to last.
> 
> They believe that governments spending will initiate hyper inflation and sense that if they're in the right investment (gold and precious metals) they stand to make a lot of money when that hyper-inflation kicks in.
> 
> *Which then begs the question, if we go into a period of hyperinflation will they then SELL their gold to get those then even more worthless dollars?*
> 
> I cannot entirely understand why they would, but let's assume that they believe that during a period of hyper-inflation, they think they can TIME their sales of gold so that they sell it at the top of the inflationary cycle, and then enjoy the benefit of having DOLLARS as the specie DEFLATES.
> 
> That what they think they're going to do, I suppose.
> 
> That or they believe that the dollar is just going to lose all value in which case they'd have better taken POSSESSION of that gold, *because, right now, I have absolute confidence that the gold dealers are selling GOLD they don't really have.*
Click to expand...


You have a misunderstanding of what hyperinflation is.


----------



## topspin

he shorted the market, I'm fully aware of what he bought. That is a wager and a risky wager at that.


----------



## Paulie

topspin said:


> he shorted the market, I'm fully aware of what he bought. That is a wager and a risky wager at that.



A short ETF doesn't carry the same risk that an actual short position does.  It's no different than going long on a stock, it just correlates with a drop rather than a gain.

An actual short position _IS_ one of the biggest risks because of the potential for unlimited loss.  You mentioned that his move was one of the riskiest, and it seemed pretty clear that's what you were getting at.

The market can go up or down on any given day.  All else being equal, a long ETF and a short ETF carry pretty much the same risk on a given day.


----------



## topspin

Paulie said:


> topspin said:
> 
> 
> 
> he shorted the market, I'm fully aware of what he bought. That is a wager and a risky wager at that.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A short ETF doesn't carry the same risk that an actual short position does.  It's no different than going long on a stock, it just correlates with a drop rather than a gain.
> 
> An actual short position _IS_ one of the biggest risks because of the potential for unlimited loss.  You mentioned that his move was one of the riskiest, and it seemed pretty clear that's what you were getting at.
> 
> The market can go up or down on any given day.  All else being equal, a long ETF and a short ETF carry pretty much the same risk on a given day.
Click to expand...


 I still don't dissagree, and I'm still correct it's a risky wager.


----------



## Toro

Zander may have gotten this one correct.  Based on the premarket action, apparently it's risk-off time.


----------



## Zander

The ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF closed out the day at 28.20 - so I am up (on paper) by 12 cents a share.


----------



## Zander

topspin said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> topspin said:
> 
> 
> 
> he shorted the market, I'm fully aware of what he bought. That is a wager and a risky wager at that.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A short ETF doesn't carry the same risk that an actual short position does.  It's no different than going long on a stock, it just correlates with a drop rather than a gain.
> 
> An actual short position _IS_ one of the biggest risks because of the potential for unlimited loss.  You mentioned that his move was one of the riskiest, and it seemed pretty clear that's what you were getting at.
> 
> The market can go up or down on any given day.  All else being equal, a long ETF and a short ETF carry pretty much the same risk on a given day.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I still don't dissagree, and I'm still correct it's a risky wager.
Click to expand...


It is slightly more risky than being long an SP500 index fund -  due to it's leveraged position.   The ETF seeks to double the return of the market. So if the SP500 drops by 5% - the ETF is designed to return 10%. Rarely does it work out exact, but it is close enough. 

It is a purely speculative play. I am a buy and hold advocate and rarely engage in market timing.  But today I see many technical and fundamental factors aligned that lead me to expect a severe drop in stock prices.


----------



## Toro

I joined Zander today and made a short bet on the market falling.  But its just a near-term trade as I think the market will be higher by the end of the year.


----------



## Zander

Toro said:


> I joined Zander today and made a short bet on the market falling.  But its just a near-term trade as I think the market will be higher by the end of the year.



OH NO!!! I am bailing........


Just kidding!!


----------



## Toro

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> I joined Zander today and made a short bet on the market falling.  But its just a near-term trade as I think the market will be higher by the end of the year.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> OH NO!!! I am bailing........
> 
> 
> Just kidding!!
Click to expand...


That's probably a good idea.  I've been on my worst run ever.  14 of my last 15 trades have lost money.  However, I still have more money than I did before the run started as that one trade made up for the other 14.


----------



## Zander

Toro said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> I joined Zander today and made a short bet on the market falling.  But its just a near-term trade as I think the market will be higher by the end of the year.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> OH NO!!! I am bailing........
> 
> 
> Just kidding!!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> That's probably a good idea.  I've been on my worst run ever.  14 of my last 15 trades have lost money.  However, I still have more money than I did before the run started as that one trade made up for the other 14.
Click to expand...


Don't feel bad, this is a weird market!  If you are ahead for the year - that is saying plenty.

When trading,  Timing is always the trick.....That is why I've always been a buy and hold investor - no timing, no regrets. Just buy, hold forever, buy more on dips, re-balance once in a while......wash rinse repeat......

At some point I will jump back in with my 60/40 allocation...just don't ask me when!!


----------



## Paulie

Zander said:


> topspin said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> A short ETF doesn't carry the same risk that an actual short position does.  It's no different than going long on a stock, it just correlates with a drop rather than a gain.
> 
> An actual short position _IS_ one of the biggest risks because of the potential for unlimited loss.  You mentioned that his move was one of the riskiest, and it seemed pretty clear that's what you were getting at.
> 
> The market can go up or down on any given day.  All else being equal, a long ETF and a short ETF carry pretty much the same risk on a given day.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I still don't dissagree, and I'm still correct it's a risky wager.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> It is slightly more risky than being long an SP500 index fund -  due to it's leveraged position.   The ETF seeks to double the return of the market. So if the SP500 drops by 5% - the ETF is designed to return 10%. Rarely does it work out exact, but it is close enough.
> 
> It is a purely speculative play. I am a buy and hold advocate and rarely engage in market timing.  But today I see many technical and fundamental factors aligned that lead me to expect a severe drop in stock prices.
Click to expand...


I have to correct myself from earlier on the dispute about risk in this position.

I didn't realize it was a 2X.  I agree with topspin that's a very risky position.

I don't like the leveraged ETF's.  They're good for a flip, but they're prone to decay.


----------



## KissMy

I bailed on the Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV) & all stocks on Friday at about 11:45 when I posted about heavy gold selling & gold struggled at the $1380 level for days before. I got out at $1375 Gold. Just $12 off its all time high. I have been very busy & did not want to think about the markets over the weekend. One day Bernanke says he is going to ease & the next thing Geithner says that the United States would not devalue the dollar for export advantage. Then China jacks interest rates to drive up the yuan. These fuckers are playing games. I haven't been the loop today & did not have the balls to short this today. They are telling their buddies to front run their policy statements & making them rich. There might be a couple more good shorting days left. I have just been to busy to look at all the news & data since Friday.

Upon further reflection & thinking about China's interest rate hike. If they hike rates & slow their consumption then commodity prices fall making the US Dollar stronger with respect to commodities. The US Dollar rises by default. These currencies are linked. Hell under Bush the US Dollar index was driven all the way down to 71 & jobs were still lost. That was much lower than the 76 level Bernanke has managed to get it down to. Maybe they have finally figured out that devaluing the dollar for export advantage is stupid. NAHHHH !!!


----------



## topspin

I've seen some of these kinds of etf's be down when the market is down, and I've seen gold etf's not track gold. VERY RISKY


----------



## Toro

topspin said:


> I've seen some of these kinds of etf's be down when the market is down, and I've seen gold etf's not track gold. VERY RISKY



Which gold ETFs?  I've invested in a few and they've tracked very closely.


----------



## topspin

Toro said:


> topspin said:
> 
> 
> 
> I've seen some of these kinds of etf's be down when the market is down, and I've seen gold etf's not track gold. VERY RISKY
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Which gold ETFs?  I've invested in a few and they've tracked very closely.
Click to expand...


I forget the symbol, heard it dicussed that it was oil futures contracts


----------



## Toro

topspin said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> topspin said:
> 
> 
> 
> I've seen some of these kinds of etf's be down when the market is down, and I've seen gold etf's not track gold. VERY RISKY
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Which gold ETFs?  I've invested in a few and they've tracked very closely.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I forget the symbol, heard it dicussed that it was oil futures contracts
Click to expand...


The oil and natural gas ETFs are terrible, but I don't know anything about the gold.  Gold can be stored easily, so there is no reason for it to deviate from the NAV of the fund.  With the energy ETFs, however, they buy futures. With the futures in contango, there is a decay to the NAV of the fund, since when the near-term contract expires, they have to buy a higher priced contract out on the curve.  The tickers are USO and UNG.  I wouldn't touch either with a 10-foot pole.  There are, however, interesting put option strategies which allow you to take advantage of the decay that the market makers haven't figured out.


----------



## william the wie

Toro said:


> topspin said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Which gold ETFs?  I've invested in a few and they've tracked very closely.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I forget the symbol, heard it dicussed that it was oil futures contracts
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> The oil and natural gas ETFs are terrible, but I don't know anything about the gold.  Gold can be stored easily, so there is no reason for it to deviate from the NAV of the fund.  With the energy ETFs, however, they buy futures. With the futures in contango, there is a decay to the NAV of the fund, since when the near-term contract expires, they have to buy a higher priced contract out on the curve.  The tickers are USO and UNG.  I wouldn't touch either with a 10-foot pole.  There are, however, interesting put option strategies which allow you to take advantage of the decay that the market makers haven't figured out.
Click to expand...

Oh no, when you run out of Greek letters are you going to use Kyrillic or Hebrew letters next?


----------



## KissMy

I tried to get back in long the market today but it ran away from me. I put in all limit orders & it just wouldn't hit my buy prices. I gave up chasing them. Maybe I will get lucky in the after hours session.


----------



## william the wie

Personally cash looks real good to me at the moment I have no idea of what's going on with this market.


----------



## The Rabbi

Zander said:


> Mad Scientist said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> One word.....DEFLATION.
> 
> 
> 
> How could we have deflation whe the Fed is all set to "monitize the debt" by printing more money? Seems we'd have inflation instead, as well as a extremely devalued dollar.
> 
> So it looks like gold is still the best investment for the time being right?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> We have been experiencing deflation for the past year and a half. The Fed's QE efforts have not really stopped the falling prices  as much as partially masked it -  Just look at the prices of things in "ounces of gold"  or the prices of real estate and you'll get the idea.  That being said, I think that over the long term, owning some gold (5-10% of your portfolio)  is a good idea.  I am extremely bearish on stocks right now - and expect to see a sharp move downward over the next weeks and months. If I am right, I will make a great profit, but if  I am wrong I only have a small portion of my portfolio in play - I am still 90% in  cash and t-bills - so this is purely a speculation on my part.   Best of luck!
Click to expand...


I disagree.
Companies are sitting on tons of cash.  They will not do anything until after the election.  If the GOP takes the House, and possibly the Senate, then that wil be a signal to businesses that they no longer have to worry about new anti business legislation.  There will be a huge amount of M&A activity, and we have already seen some.
No, the potential for big gains is still there.  We might see a correction but no more.  And if you'e been in cash for most of this year you have missed one of the big rallies.


----------



## Toro

Much of that cash is overblown, since its sitting outside the United States and won't be repatriated because of the 35% tax rate.  Most of the debt that has been raised has been to extend existing debt or lower interest payments or to just take advantage of the lowest rates in a lifetime that will probably be recycled back to shareholders.  The change of government will improve moods but the problems in the economy are structural and there is too much capacity.  Lowering taxes or being more business friendly won't change that.


----------



## topspin

I'm a stock guy, have been for 25 yrs. Oil stocks look fantastic to me for many reasons, not the least of which is China buys more cars than we do and has to import oil.
 Mobil tech looks fantastic


----------



## editec

Paulie said:


> editec said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> First let me tell you, I am not invested in gold. I could not care less about it, or the price that people are willing to pay for it. As far as I am concerned, it is little more than a shiny metal with scant few uses beyond jewelry or as as store of "perceived" value for fearful investors. Some people think it is wise to have a portion of your assets in gold - good for them. Personally, I don't own any except for a few pieces of jewelry. And I have no intentions of buying any, now or in the future.
> 
> That being said.... When I see the "investor" demand exceed "jewelry" and industry demand for the first time n history - I view that as "irrational". When there are advertisements on every available media touting the "safety" and "security" of GOLD!!! as an investment - I see that as irrational. When I view the actual 30 year return on gold as investment - I see it as a lousy, irrational investment. When I see the current deflationary cycle devastating the prices of every other commodity asset class across the board except precious metals - I see that as irrational. Could I be wrong? Maybe. But since I have ZERO vested interest, I simply do not care.
> 
> So now I am asking you...what specifically is "rational" about the rise in price of gold right now?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You know, I agree with that analysis_ a lot._
> 
> But here's the thing...markets aren't entirely moving based on fundamentals. They're also moving (and moving big time... sometimes) based on perception.
> 
> And the perception is that there is great risk of hyperinflation.
> 
> Yeah, I know, that doesn't make sense given that deflation is the current state of affairs.
> 
> But the people buying gold think that the deflation isn't going to last.
> 
> They believe that governments spending will initiate hyper inflation and sense that if they're in the right investment (gold and precious metals) they stand to make a lot of money when that hyper-inflation kicks in.
> 
> *Which then begs the question, if we go into a period of hyperinflation will they then SELL their gold to get those then even more worthless dollars?*
> 
> I cannot entirely understand why they would, but let's assume that they believe that during a period of hyper-inflation, they think they can TIME their sales of gold so that they sell it at the top of the inflationary cycle, and then enjoy the benefit of having DOLLARS as the specie DEFLATES.
> 
> That what they think they're going to do, I suppose.
> 
> That or they believe that the dollar is just going to lose all value in which case they'd have better taken POSSESSION of that gold, *because, right now, I have absolute confidence that the gold dealers are selling GOLD they don't really have.*
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> You have a misunderstanding of what hyperinflation is.
Click to expand...

 

Do I?

Well I might.

I define hyper inflation as a rapid increase in the aggregate specie which exceeds the increase in real goods and services.

Is that wrong?


----------



## editec

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> OH NO!!! I am bailing........
> 
> 
> Just kidding!!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's probably a good idea. I've been on my worst run ever. 14 of my last 15 trades have lost money. However, I still have more money than I did before the run started as that one trade made up for the other 14.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Don't feel bad, this is a weird market! If you are ahead for the year - that is saying plenty.
> 
> When trading, Timing is always the trick.....That is why I've always been a buy and hold investor - no timing, no regrets. Just buy, hold forever, buy more on dips, re-balance once in a while......wash rinse repeat......
> 
> At some point I will jump back in with my 60/40 allocation...just don't ask me when!!
Click to expand...

 
Well that _hold 'em for the long run_ approach works as long as the market doesn't go into true free fall.

But imagine that you'd positioned yourself completely in equities in 1929.

The Dow finally returned to its 1929 values in 1958 (or was it 57? not sure, but mid 50s).

How would  your system have worked under those circumstances?


----------



## topspin

so your argument is not to invest in stocks based on pre 1960 financial structure?


----------



## KissMy

topspin said:


> I'm a stock guy, have been for 25 yrs. Oil stocks look fantastic to me for many reasons, not the least of which is China buys more cars than we do and has to import oil.
> Mobil tech looks fantastic



What do you think about Core Labs (CLB) as an oil play?


----------



## KissMy

Toro said:


> Much of that cash is overblown, since its sitting outside the United States and won't be repatriated because of the 35% tax rate.  Most of the debt that has been raised has been to extend existing debt or lower interest payments or to just take advantage of the lowest rates in a lifetime that will probably be recycled back to shareholders.  The change of government will improve moods but the problems in the economy are structural and there is too much capacity.  Lowering taxes or being more business friendly won't change that.



You are right about that. A lot of these guys are pushing for a Tax Holiday in order to repatriate those dollars sitting outside the USA. Do you think the republicans will pass a Tax Holiday & let this cash rush into the USA? I vote for a Low Tax Holiday that is competitave with all other countries. Even if these companies repatriated low tax money gets paid to share holders as dividends, these share holders will have to pay tax on it in the USA & that money will get spent or invested in the USA.

FT - Companies in appeal for US tax amnesty


> The treatment of &#8220;cash on the sidelines&#8221; is becoming an increasingly pointed political and economic issue in the sluggish recovery, with Republicans blaming uncertainty created by Democratic healthcare and financial reforms for companies&#8217; reluctance to invest and create jobs.
> 
> But some large groups say that US tax rules are a more important barrier. JPMorgan estimated that for some companies, so-called trapped cash amounts to more than 75 per cent of cash balances. To use the cash domestically, they would have to pay tax, typically of 25-35 per cent.
> 
> &#8220;We do have overseas cash and we would be very supportive of a repatriation holiday,&#8221; said Keith Sherin, chief financial officer of General Electric. &#8220;If you think about it, there is a lot of cash trapped overseas. If companies could bring that back at more competitive tax rates, I think it would be good for the US economy.&#8221;
> 
> Sceptics, including in the administration, say the cash level alone is not a good guide to investment firepower as it ignores corporate debt levels. They also warn that Congress could raise hopes of more tax holidays; that repatriated cash might well be paid to shareholders rather than lead to job creation; and that a lack of investment is not the most pressing economic problem. The Treasury declined to comment.


----------



## topspin

KissMy said:


> topspin said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm a stock guy, have been for 25 yrs. Oil stocks look fantastic to me for many reasons, not the least of which is China buys more cars than we do and has to import oil.
> Mobil tech looks fantastic
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What do you think about Core Labs (CLB) as an oil play?
Click to expand...


 sorry, I only do the big integrated majors


----------



## The Rabbi

Toro said:


> Much of that cash is overblown, since its sitting outside the United States and won't be repatriated because of the 35% tax rate.  Most of the debt that has been raised has been to extend existing debt or lower interest payments or to just take advantage of the lowest rates in a lifetime that will probably be recycled back to shareholders.  The change of government will improve moods but the problems in the economy are structural and there is too much capacity.  Lowering taxes or being more business friendly won't change that.



And THAT is why I disagree with the efficient market theory.  Yes, all facts might be known.  But how we interpret them is going to vary person to person.
I naturally think I am right.  Either the money is sitting here waiting to be invested, or the money overseas will get repatriated under  a special tax deal (I think there was one earlier under BUsh).  Either way it will lead to new investment and greater returns, making stocks a reasonable value now.
You obviously disagree.  I guess one of us will be right.  Maybe both of us will be wrong.


----------



## Toro

I think EMH is incorrect as well. I'm just skeptical of QE2 doing anything other than inflating asset prices and maybe adding 0.5% to GDP. We are working through some of our problems which is good but I see too many imbalances to really take off. So I think 1%-2% is what we will get over the next few years then resume trenfline growth thereafter. But like you said maybe I'm wrong.


----------



## Toro

I agree with the tax amnesty BTW. Rather, I think it would be better to lower corporate taxes and close some loopholes such as transfer pricing. There was an article on Bloomberg i will post later detailing how Google paid a tax rate of 2.8%. Maybe lower taxes to 20% but close stuff like that.


----------



## topspin

I think efficient market theory works for me for sure!!!
 Long term that is, I don't worry about short term fluctuations. 
 I do trade, but not sophisticated at all. If the market is down a couple hundred points I buy great companies and sell them when the market is up a couple hundred.
 that usually beats the market, but I'm only doing that with about $100,000 the bulk is invested in buy and hold big oil, and mid/small cap growth funds and the S&P 500 50% oil and equally distributed with the rest.


----------



## KissMy

Toro said:


> I agree with the tax amnesty BTW. Rather, I think it would be better to lower corporate taxes and close some loopholes such as transfer pricing. There was an article on Bloomberg i will post later detailing how Google paid a tax rate of 2.8%. Maybe lower taxes to 20% but close stuff like that.



Ditto - On the lower the corporate tax rate & close the loopholes so we can compete.


----------



## topspin

We should have the lowest corp tax rate, not the highest.


----------



## The Rabbi

Toro said:


> I agree with the tax amnesty BTW. Rather, I think it would be better to lower corporate taxes and close some loopholes such as transfer pricing. There was an article on Bloomberg i will post later detailing how Google paid a tax rate of 2.8%. Maybe lower taxes to 20% but close stuff like that.



I agree a permanent solution would be better. Could it be done politically?  Dunno.


----------



## william the wie

I think the key question for the stock market are the size and timing of the writedowns from foreclosuregate. Local and state officials are seeing this mess as a source of revenues in the form of fines for poor maintenance, bad filings, special taxes/fines on unoccupied homes, takings clause lawsuits against federal agencies carrying the properties and no doubt other revenue enhancers.


----------



## Zander

A quick update - I doubled my short position today - now have a cost basis of $27.60 /share.


----------



## The Rabbi

Zander said:


> A quick update - I doubled my short position today - now have a cost basis of $27.60 /share.



"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent." -Keynes.

Remind us what you shorted again.


----------



## Zander

The Rabbi said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> A quick update - I doubled my short position today - now have a cost basis of $27.60 /share.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent." -Keynes.
> 
> Remind us what you shorted again.
Click to expand...


I shorted the S&P 500 using an inverse ETF.

Any good news is already baked into the cake, bad news, of any sort, should send the market tumbling..........


----------



## The Rabbi

That's possible short term. But longer term I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow go to 15k.


----------



## Douger

The Rabbi said:


> That's possible short term. But longer term I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow go to 15k.


There's no doubt it will.
As companies continue to go overseas their profits skyrocket.
The investors in murka make damn good profits. Those who work have their food stamps.

I just refuse to be a part of that corrupt system.
I invest in countries that actually give a fuck about their citizenry.


----------



## topspin

Acting like you can predict short term market direction is worse than picking football games. 

 Earnings are coming in good, if the pe of the market was a lot higher I'd agree on shorting. Good luck though, I'd rather wish people make money than lose it. 15,000 wow if it got there in less than a couple years I could retire on that gain.


----------



## The Rabbi

Douger said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> That's possible short term. But longer term I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow go to 15k.
> 
> 
> 
> There's no doubt it will.
> As companies continue to go overseas their profits skyrocket.
> The investors in murka make damn good profits. Those who work have their food stamps.
> 
> I just refuse to be a part of that corrupt system.
> I invest in countries that actually give a fuck about their citizenry.
Click to expand...


Like China?  France?


----------



## Toro

The market is selling off because QEII was underwhelming.  

There are two big issues next week, the Fed and the election.  The Fed is telegraphing that QEII will be less than the market is expecting.  The market is expecting a Republican victory in the House.  That is what I'm expecting.  What if the Dems win instead?  That's a negative.  What if the GOP wins the Senate?  That is a positive.  But if it is anything other than the GOP winning both chambers, I would expect a sell the news reaction, which may be kicking in now.


----------



## The Rabbi

Toro said:


> The market is selling off because QEII was underwhelming.
> 
> There are two big issues next week, the Fed and the election.  The Fed is telegraphing that QEII will be less than the market is expecting.  The market is expecting a Republican victory in the House.  That is what I'm expecting.  What if the Dems win instead?  That's a negative.  What if the GOP wins the Senate?  That is a positive.  But if it is anything other than the GOP winning both chambers, I would expect a sell the news reaction, which may be kicking in now.



Short term you're probably right.  Markets rose anticipating a GOP victory.  All that news is out and discounted.


----------



## Toro

The Rabbi said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> The market is selling off because QEII was underwhelming.
> 
> There are two big issues next week, the Fed and the election.  The Fed is telegraphing that QEII will be less than the market is expecting.  The market is expecting a Republican victory in the House.  That is what I'm expecting.  What if the Dems win instead?  That's a negative.  What if the GOP wins the Senate?  That is a positive.  But if it is anything other than the GOP winning both chambers, I would expect a sell the news reaction, which may be kicking in now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Short term you're probably right.  Markets rose anticipating a GOP victory.  All that news is out and discounted.
Click to expand...


I expect stocks will be higher some time next year, so I will be covering my shorts into this sell-off.


----------



## william the wie

This will be interesting.


----------



## FireFly

Time to short Rare Element Resources Ltd. (REE)


----------



## editec

Toro said:


> Much of that cash is overblown, since its sitting outside the United States and won't be repatriated because of the 35% tax rate. Most of the debt that has been raised has been to extend existing debt or lower interest payments or to just take advantage of the lowest rates in a lifetime that will probably be recycled back to shareholders. The change of government will improve moods *but the problems in the economy are structural and there is too much capacity. Lowering taxes or being more business friendly won't change that*.


 
Bingo!

The problem is the imbalance between supply and demand.

I'll leave it to you genuises to figure out how things got that far out of kilter.

But if your investigation into this doesn't include the phrase *income inequity*?

Then you're _still_ don't get how the macro-economy really works


----------



## The Rabbi

editec said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Much of that cash is overblown, since its sitting outside the United States and won't be repatriated because of the 35% tax rate. Most of the debt that has been raised has been to extend existing debt or lower interest payments or to just take advantage of the lowest rates in a lifetime that will probably be recycled back to shareholders. The change of government will improve moods *but the problems in the economy are structural and there is too much capacity. Lowering taxes or being more business friendly won't change that*.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bingo!
> 
> The problem is the imbalance between supply and demand.
> 
> I'll leave it to you genuises to figure out how things got that far out of kilter.
> 
> But if your investigation into this doesn't include the phrase *income inequity*?
> 
> Then you're _still_ don't get how the macro-economy really works
Click to expand...


I disagree there is a structural problem.  My analysis does not include the phrase income inequity.  Heck, I dont even know what that means.
And I think I understand the macro economy a heck of a lot better than some pissant third-rate Marxist.


----------



## Toro

There is definitely a melt-up going on in some parts of the market.  And its being driven mainly by QE2.  To see silver go up 40% in two months on no intrinsic news is amazing.

There are some internal breakdowns in the stock market, however.  We'll see if it matters.


----------



## editec

The Rabbi said:


> editec said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Much of that cash is overblown, since its sitting outside the United States and won't be repatriated because of the 35% tax rate. Most of the debt that has been raised has been to extend existing debt or lower interest payments or to just take advantage of the lowest rates in a lifetime that will probably be recycled back to shareholders. The change of government will improve moods *but the problems in the economy are structural and there is too much capacity. Lowering taxes or being more business friendly won't change that*.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bingo!
> 
> The problem is the imbalance between supply and demand.
> 
> I'll leave it to you genuises to figure out how things got that far out of kilter.
> 
> But if your investigation into this doesn't include the phrase *income inequity*?
> 
> Then you're _still_ don't get how the macro-economy really works
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I disagree there is a structural problem. My analysis does not include the phrase income inequity. Heck, I dont even know what that means.
> And I think I understand the macro economy a heck of a lot better than some pissant third-rate Marxist.
Click to expand...

 
Of course you do.

But you'd have given yourself more credibility if you didn't feel the need to add that pointless _ad hominen_ insult.

It is possible, you know, to disagree without being disagreeable.


----------



## The Rabbi

editec said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> editec said:
> 
> 
> 
> Bingo!
> 
> The problem is the imbalance between supply and demand.
> 
> I'll leave it to you genuises to figure out how things got that far out of kilter.
> 
> But if your investigation into this doesn't include the phrase *income inequity*?
> 
> Then you're _still_ don't get how the macro-economy really works
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I disagree there is a structural problem. My analysis does not include the phrase income inequity. Heck, I dont even know what that means.
> And I think I understand the macro economy a heck of a lot better than some pissant third-rate Marxist.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Of course you do.
> 
> But you'd have given yourself more credibility if you didn't feel the need to add that pointless _ad hominen_ insult.
> 
> It is possible, you know, to disagree without being disagreeable.
Click to expand...

True.  But what fun would that be?
And did you think I was referring to you as a "pissant third rate marxist"?


----------



## Toro

Covered all my shorts this afternoon at a small loss. I think a downdraft is coming but stocks seemingly want to keep floating higher. QE2 is all that matters.


----------



## william the wie

Toro said:


> Covered all my shorts this afternoon at a small loss. I think a downdraft is coming but stocks seemingly want to keep floating higher. QE2 is all that matters.


You've just summarized why I like the Black Swan approach, too bad fund buyers hate it.


----------



## Toro

Lots of negative divergences. But that often happens in melt-ups. I am wondering if I should reestablish my long gold and silver positions. Silver hit a multiple-decade high today. Gold may have also put in a bottom.


----------



## Zander

I am sticking with my short position. To me it seems that any "good" news is already baked in the cake, bad news of any kind will send stocks lower, significantly lower.,....think "flash crash" x 2 or 3......


----------



## Paulie

Zander said:


> I am sticking with my short position. To me it seems that any "good" news is already baked in the cake, bad news of any kind will send stocks lower, significantly lower.,....think "flash crash" x 2 or 3......



Not necessarily.  The bad news seems to be _good_ for the market, because it reinforces QE2.

More money creation, higher asset prices.

You need to be looking at this whole picture in different ways than just "the economy is bad, so stocks should suck".

We're in different times now, my man.


----------



## Zander

Paulie said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> I am sticking with my short position. To me it seems that any "good" news is already baked in the cake, bad news of any kind will send stocks lower, significantly lower.,....think "flash crash" x 2 or 3......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not necessarily.  The bad news seems to be _good_ for the market, because it reinforces QE2.
> 
> More money creation, higher asset prices.
> 
> You need to be looking at this whole picture in different ways than just "the economy is bad, so stocks should suck".
> 
> We're in different times now, my man.
Click to expand...

It is social mood that scares me, not the economy.  Either way, I am not going to be hurt financially.  I only have "play money" at risk. I could lose it all and not bat an eyelash - i wouldn't be happy about losing it. but it won't really hurt me (other than my ego!).  My "serious" money is invested in my business, my real estate, and in cash. This is just for fun. It's kinda like my version of a "vegas" trip.....


----------



## william the wie

Zander the profits are bigger but longer term if you use leaps. You can buy leaps 12-18 months out at relatively cheap prices and melt up or meltdown just add lost minimization positions as the market wanders.  Crashes and run-ups happen about once every four years and when they do your profits are huge.


----------



## Paulie

Zander said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> I am sticking with my short position. To me it seems that any "good" news is already baked in the cake, bad news of any kind will send stocks lower, significantly lower.,....think "flash crash" x 2 or 3......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not necessarily.  The bad news seems to be _good_ for the market, because it reinforces QE2.
> 
> More money creation, higher asset prices.
> 
> You need to be looking at this whole picture in different ways than just "the economy is bad, so stocks should suck".
> 
> We're in different times now, my man.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> It is social mood that scares me, not the economy.  Either way, I am not going to be hurt financially.  I only have "play money" at risk. I could lose it all and not bat an eyelash - i wouldn't be happy about losing it. but it won't really hurt me (other than my ego!).  My "serious" money is invested in my business, my real estate, and in cash. This is just for fun. It's kinda like my version of a "vegas" trip.....
Click to expand...


Well the social mood kind of goes hand in hand with the economy.  The economy sucks, so the mood is dismal.

But shrugging off your losses because you don't care about the money doesn't really help anything.

I'm just saying that these days, you need to widen your viewpoint on things because it doesn't seem like the same old market anymore.  

The Federal Reserve is fucking _nuts_.  They and the banks are playing some serious games with this market.  Don't let them beat you at their game.


----------



## Gadawg73

Paulie said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> Not necessarily.  The bad news seems to be _good_ for the market, because it reinforces QE2.
> 
> More money creation, higher asset prices.
> 
> You need to be looking at this whole picture in different ways than just "the economy is bad, so stocks should suck".
> 
> We're in different times now, my man.
> 
> 
> 
> It is social mood that scares me, not the economy.  Either way, I am not going to be hurt financially.  I only have "play money" at risk. I could lose it all and not bat an eyelash - i wouldn't be happy about losing it. but it won't really hurt me (other than my ego!).  My "serious" money is invested in my business, my real estate, and in cash. This is just for fun. It's kinda like my version of a "vegas" trip.....
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Well the social mood kind of goes hand in hand with the economy.  The economy sucks, so the mood is dismal.
> 
> But shrugging off your losses because you don't care about the money doesn't really help anything.
> 
> I'm just saying that these days, you need to widen your viewpoint on things because it doesn't seem like the same old market anymore.
> 
> The Federal Reserve is fucking _nuts_.  They and the banks are playing some serious games with this market.  Don't let them beat you at their game.
Click to expand...


Good points.
Raw land at existing prices near a growing suburbia is a great buy these days if you can afford to sit and wait with no revenue on it. 40 cents on the dollar versus 5 years ago.
Municipal bonds, sit on them but be very careful how long. Many an IOU coming from some governments.
Utilities are an if buy but there are some good buys. 
COH for the rest and 50%+ at that!


----------



## rdking647

Zander said:


> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!



why buy the etf when you can just buy spy puts.  instead of 100 shares at 28.08 which costs 2800 you can buy 1 spy at the money put expiring in december for 350 or so. if the market has the big crash before the third week of december your golden.


----------



## rdking647

Toro said:


> Lots of negative divergences. But that often happens in melt-ups. I am wondering if I should reestablish my long gold and silver positions. Silver hit a multiple-decade high today. Gold may have also put in a bottom.



instead of buying silver i but SLW stock.  They basically agree to buy an entire mines production at $4 an ounce or so and get to sell it at the market.


----------



## Toro

I know of Silver Wheaton.  Good company.

I've been buying back gold and silver, and will add to my position if they fall back into support.

Market looked tired today.  Acted like it was topping.


----------



## rdking647

pre election/fed meeting caution. Im long stocks but also own some puts as a hedge


----------



## Zander

rdking647 said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> why buy the etf when you can just buy spy puts.  instead of 100 shares at 28.08 which costs 2800 you can buy 1 spy at the money put expiring in december for 350 or so. if the market has the big crash before the third week of december your golden.
Click to expand...


Out of the money Options lose value over time even if the market is trending in your direction. With an inverse ETF I have no "time" limit.


----------



## Toro

Zander said:


> rdking647 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> why buy the etf when you can just buy spy puts.  instead of 100 shares at 28.08 which costs 2800 you can buy 1 spy at the money put expiring in december for 350 or so. if the market has the big crash before the third week of december your golden.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Out of the money Options lose value over time even if the market is trending in your direction. With an inverse ETF I have no "time" limit.
Click to expand...


But you do have decay.  If it takes too long to play out, you can still lose money, even if the trade goes your way.


----------



## Zander

Toro said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rdking647 said:
> 
> 
> 
> why buy the etf when you can just buy spy puts.  instead of 100 shares at 28.08 which costs 2800 you can buy 1 spy at the money put expiring in december for 350 or so. if the market has the big crash before the third week of december your golden.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Out of the money Options lose value over time even if the market is trending in your direction. With an inverse ETF I have no "time" limit.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> But you do have decay.  If it takes too long to play out, you can still lose money, even if the trade goes your way.
Click to expand...


True, but decay is a much slower process. An Out of the money "put" option starts declining pretty rapidly in a sideways market.


----------



## Toro

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> Out of the money Options lose value over time even if the market is trending in your direction. With an inverse ETF I have no "time" limit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> But you do have decay.  If it takes too long to play out, you can still lose money, even if the trade goes your way.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> True, but decay is a much slower process. An Out of the money "put" option starts declining pretty rapidly in a sideways market.
Click to expand...


They decline slowly at the beginning and accelerate at the end.  So the more certain you are, the shorter the time frame, and vice-versa.

But whatever you're comfortable with is what you should invest in.


----------



## Gadawg73

I M telling you younguns:
In 1974 I bought raw land and held for 10 years. Made a killing in '84 before the S&L "crisis".
After that went heavy in utilities and big box home improvement stocks. Cashed that out for a load from late 90s through 2006.
The market and precious metals are for dummies. Metals great for short term hedge against inflation but where is there any inflation? Gold was $800 an ounce in 1982. Do not drink the Kool Aid, but if you have it now SELL and take your profits.
Raw land, buy it up and wait. I have 700K in 17 high end lots that were going for 110K each a lot 3 years ago. Just sold 2 for 60K each and the market HAS bottomed in zoned and build ready lots. Yes, it is a wait game but the profits are there and they are very good. Plenty of inventory and BANKS hold 90% of that. Shooting fish in a barrell. 
Or play the market with 50K here and there for chump change at best IF you are lucky.


----------



## Toro

US raw land is the cheapest investment in the world that I know of right now.


----------



## william the wie

I have to go through a sale of division first but I have a keystone property for an assisted living complex in Dadeville AL. Talk to me in about six months my AL real estate lawyer went to the hospital today with what I suspect is walking pneumonia. I have to wait until she recovers to go forward and that may be a while.


----------



## KissMy

Gadawg73 said:


> I M telling you younguns:
> In 1974 I bought raw land and held for 10 years. Made a killing in '84 before the S&L "crisis".
> After that went heavy in utilities and big box home improvement stocks. Cashed that out for a load from late 90s through 2006.
> The market and precious metals are for dummies. Metals great for short term hedge against inflation but where is there any inflation? Gold was $800 an ounce in 1982. Do not drink the Kool Aid, but if you have it now SELL and take your profits.
> Raw land, buy it up and wait. I have 700K in 17 high end lots that were going for 110K each a lot 3 years ago. Just sold 2 for 60K each and the market HAS bottomed in zoned and build ready lots. Yes, it is a wait game but the profits are there and they are very good. Plenty of inventory and BANKS hold 90% of that. Shooting fish in a barrell.
> Or play the market with 50K here and there for chump change at best IF you are lucky.



I don't think land has bottomed yet. Usually houses bottom first & then land. Also a home is land plus other commodities assembled to create a revenue stream called rent. Land does not create a revenue stream unless it can be rented or farmed. Neither of those can be done with zoned and build ready lots. Tax & insurance is the only revenue stream this land will generate & that goes to insurance companies & government. There is no tax or liability insurance on Gold. After houses rise for a while & building resumes then these lots will be worth while.

I have been waiting for a trade war or a Carter style grain embargo to make farm & raw land plummet before I jump in & buy it up. The Carter grain embargo in 1979 caused farm land to plummet 75% in about a year.


----------



## The Rabbi

Toro said:


> I know of Silver Wheaton.  Good company.
> 
> I've been buying back gold and silver, and will add to my position if they fall back into support.
> 
> Market looked tired today.  Acted like it was topping.



The only thing topping is Barney Frank.  Gold and Silver are massively over valued and their prices will fall.  Stocks will rise, probbaly after a short correction.


----------



## topspin

I agree with the land point, I totally dissagree that the stock market is not good. The S&P 500 is the rotating of the top 500 companies in the country. They can't suck long term and have land going up. Land will go up with the demand side having the money to buy it.


----------



## Gadawg73

topspin said:


> I agree with the land point, I totally dissagree that the stock market is not good. The S&P 500 is the rotating of the top 500 companies in the country. They can't suck long term and have land going up. Land will go up with the demand side having the money to buy it.



You argument is a strong one and is supported by 50 years of market data.
The debt changes all of that now for American corporations. Consumers have less $$.


----------



## topspin

Incomes are growing especially among the upper classes, and they are the ones who spend the bulk of the $.


----------



## KissMy

FireFly said:


> Time to short Rare Element Resources Ltd. (REE)



Thanks for this. I am up 30% due to shorting this stock.

These other numb nuts are a year ahead on property bottom. Gold has a years worth of upside. The most money is made at the end of a bubble, not at the beginning.


----------



## topspin

the republican landslide will be good for stocks


----------



## KissMy

All eyes on the Fed's 2:15PM QE2 announcement. I think this lame duck period will give the Fed cover to print a huge pile of cash. This will be larger than consensus expectation. Go for the GOLD.


----------



## Toro

Gold and silver are getting crushed.  Gold had a $40 intra-day reversal today.  Perhaps the Fed decision has been leaked and QE2 will be less than expected.

But I've seen this before, and it seems that pre-Fed meeting moves are as much wrong as they are right.


----------



## KissMy

QE2 was a bit light. $75 Billion per month until they hit $600 Billion instead of over $100 Billion per month until they hit $1 Trillion. $500 Billion was baked into asset prices. Looks like we go sideways.


----------



## Zander

I thought QE2 was going to cause stock prices to rise? Now it's not enough?? ...:lol

Methinks it will never be "enough". Deflation is still out there like a gigantic snowball that is gaining speed and power as it flies down the hill. Before it is done we will have a crash and a lot of "snow" everywhere.....

I remain BEARISH.


----------



## william the wie

Toro said:


> Gold and silver are getting crushed.  Gold had a $40 intra-day reversal today.  Perhaps the Fed decision has been leaked and QE2 will be less than expected.
> 
> But I've seen this before, and it seems that pre-Fed meeting moves are as much wrong as they are right.


I am extremely worried that this will reinforce the STS cycle of buy after halloween day then sell in may and walk away. It sound like the money will be cutoff around the May options expiration date with catastrophic results, am I being alarmist?


----------



## The Rabbi

Zander said:


> I thought QE2 was going to cause stock prices to rise? Now it's not enough?? ...:lol
> 
> Methinks it will never be "enough". Deflation is still out there like a gigantic snowball that is gaining speed and power as it flies down the hill. Before it is done we will have a crash and a lot of "snow" everywhere.....
> 
> I remain BEARISH.



I can't agree.  The biggest drag has been uncertainty generated by the Democrats over future tax and regulation policies.  Companies have been profitable but have not invested those profits.  Now with the GOP having taken the House the Dems' agenda is in tatters and life can go on.  This means more investment and corporate spending.  I would look for increased M&A activity as companies pursue growth on the floor of the stock exchange.


----------



## Gadawg73

KissMy said:


> FireFly said:
> 
> 
> 
> Time to short Rare Element Resources Ltd. (REE)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks for this. I am up 30% due to shorting this stock.
> 
> These other numb nuts are a year ahead on property bottom. Gold has a years worth of upside. The most money is made at the end of a bubble, not at the beginning.
Click to expand...


Very true but let us know the exact date of the end of the bubble and the lotto #s for the next power ball. 
And tell us how much you are DOWN on some or the rest of the other stocks you short.If you are telling us you GAIN on all of your shorts then you are either not telling the truth or have only shorted ONE stock EVER. We always hear of the gains from you stockguys and never hear the total story which, if you are seriously in the market long term, ALWAYS includes loses.

Profits are profits. You do not make $ unless you sell. I have made almost 70K PROFIT this year, in a bad year, off of the land with about 7K total in expenses on it and 15% capital gains. About a 30% net gain in an off year and the land just sits there. 
YOU hold and your capital gains might go up under new tax law or the stock may go down.
And how much $ at risk do you have shorting that stock? 200K, 300K?
If you do not have at least 250K in at risk investments such as this then the return is nil.
Call me a numb nut all you want but my long term returns on land will always add an additional 70K + yearly to my income with no risk.


----------



## editec

Corporations don't need tax breaks.

They need customers.


----------



## topspin

there will be a boom in the stock market and the economy, as stated major uncertainty on taxes has been removed.


----------



## Toro

william the wie said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Gold and silver are getting crushed.  Gold had a $40 intra-day reversal today.  Perhaps the Fed decision has been leaked and QE2 will be less than expected.
> 
> But I've seen this before, and it seems that pre-Fed meeting moves are as much wrong as they are right.
> 
> 
> 
> I am extremely worried that this will reinforce the STS cycle of buy after halloween day then sell in may and walk away. It sound like the money will be cutoff around the May options expiration date with catastrophic results, am I being alarmist?
Click to expand...


QE2 is scheduled to end June 30.  I wouldn't want to own any risk assets after that.  The market started to fall in May literally a few days after QE1 ended, which was then exacerbated by the Greek fiasco.  However, I'm sure it will be followed by QE3!

This market is going up primarily because of QE.  Taxes and the election may be playing a small part, but it is almost entirely because of QE.


----------



## Toro

BTW, I covered all my shorts a week ago.  For other accounts that had hedges, I eliminated them all.  It's hard to see the market not being higher than it is now next year, unless there is some sort of unknown crisis just around the corner.


----------



## william the wie

Toro said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Gold and silver are getting crushed.  Gold had a $40 intra-day reversal today.  Perhaps the Fed decision has been leaked and QE2 will be less than expected.
> 
> But I've seen this before, and it seems that pre-Fed meeting moves are as much wrong as they are right.
> 
> 
> 
> I am extremely worried that this will reinforce the STS cycle of buy after halloween day then sell in may and walk away. It sound like the money will be cutoff around the May options expiration date with catastrophic results, am I being alarmist?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> QE2 is scheduled to end June 30.  I wouldn't want to own any risk assets after that.  The market started to fall in May literally a few days after QE1 ended, which was then exacerbated by the Greek fiasco.  However, I'm sure it will be followed by QE3!
> 
> This market is going up primarily because of QE.  Taxes and the election may be playing a small part, but it is almost entirely because of QE.
Click to expand...

Other than LEAP straddles and precious metals both of which I am in, I don't see anything attractive out there. The continuing shrinkage of banking market share by traditional commercial/investment banks and foreclosure gate spawning putback lawsuits I'm not sure even total debt monetization and helicopters dropping money will work without causing currency collapse.  A bad decade at blackrock does seem to be coming.


----------



## KissMy

Gadawg73 said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FireFly said:
> 
> 
> 
> Time to short Rare Element Resources Ltd. (REE)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks for this. I am up 30% due to shorting this stock.
> 
> These other numb nuts are a year ahead on property bottom. Gold has a years worth of upside. The most money is made at the end of a bubble, not at the beginning.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Very true but let us know the exact date of the end of the bubble and the lotto #s for the next power ball.
> And tell us how much you are DOWN on some or the rest of the other stocks you short.If you are telling us you GAIN on all of your shorts then you are either not telling the truth or have only shorted ONE stock EVER. We always hear of the gains from you stockguys and never hear the total story which, if you are seriously in the market long term, ALWAYS includes loses.
> 
> Profits are profits. You do not make $ unless you sell. I have made almost 70K PROFIT this year, in a bad year, off of the land with about 7K total in expenses on it and 15% capital gains. About a 30% net gain in an off year and the land just sits there.
> YOU hold and your capital gains might go up under new tax law or the stock may go down.
> And how much $ at risk do you have shorting that stock? 200K, 300K?
> If you do not have at least 250K in at risk investments such as this then the return is nil.
> Call me a numb nut all you want but my long term returns on land will always add an additional 70K + yearly to my income with no risk.
Click to expand...


I covered my shorts on election day & piled heavy into Gold & Silver on the dip after the 2:15 QE2 announcement. I bought 3 houses last year & they are paying me with cash rents. Your vacant zoned lot plan pays nothing until you sell. After taxes, insurance & realtor fees take a chunk many years down the road you may have something. I would avoid vacant lots until January 2013. The mortgage crisis should end October-November 2012 so wait until the property taxes gets paid & buy vacant land in early 2013. Stick with foreclosed homes for now. If commodity prices skyrocket these homes are built from commodities. It may be prohibitively expensive to build new on vacant land by 2013. I will avoid vacant land until then when I can see some clarity.


----------



## william the wie

I am going to buy more LEAP straddles for Dec 11. I am clueless as to whether we are entering a 9500-11500 trading range on the Dow, taking off for 60K before the big blow off or headed for the twilight zone of finance.


----------



## topspin

the S&P 500 is very attractive here.


----------



## Gadawg73

KissMy said:


> Gadawg73 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks for this. I am up 30% due to shorting this stock.
> 
> These other numb nuts are a year ahead on property bottom. Gold has a years worth of upside. The most money is made at the end of a bubble, not at the beginning.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Very true but let us know the exact date of the end of the bubble and the lotto #s for the next power ball.
> And tell us how much you are DOWN on some or the rest of the other stocks you short.If you are telling us you GAIN on all of your shorts then you are either not telling the truth or have only shorted ONE stock EVER. We always hear of the gains from you stockguys and never hear the total story which, if you are seriously in the market long term, ALWAYS includes loses.
> 
> Profits are profits. You do not make $ unless you sell. I have made almost 70K PROFIT this year, in a bad year, off of the land with about 7K total in expenses on it and 15% capital gains. About a 30% net gain in an off year and the land just sits there.
> YOU hold and your capital gains might go up under new tax law or the stock may go down.
> And how much $ at risk do you have shorting that stock? 200K, 300K?
> If you do not have at least 250K in at risk investments such as this then the return is nil.
> Call me a numb nut all you want but my long term returns on land will always add an additional 70K + yearly to my income with no risk.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I covered my shorts on election day & piled heavy into Gold & Silver on the dip after the 2:15 QE2 announcement. I bought 3 houses last year & they are paying me with cash rents. Your vacant zoned lot plan pays nothing until you sell. After taxes, insurance & realtor fees take a chunk many years down the road you may have something. I would avoid vacant lots until January 2013. The mortgage crisis should end October-November 2012 so wait until the property taxes gets paid & buy vacant land in early 2013. Stick with foreclosed homes for now. If commodity prices skyrocket these homes are built from commodities. It may be prohibitively expensive to build new on vacant land by 2013. I will avoid vacant land until then when I can see some clarity.
Click to expand...


I agree with you on the rental properties but been there, done that and with so many vacant homes on the market now the rents are way down. People are buying or waiting to buy and renting apartments at rock bottom prices. My son is renting  a high end luxury 1 BR apartment in Buckhead, north of Atlanta at $800.00 a month.
I pay no real estate commissions as I develop myself. No insurance on vacant land, only taxes which are around 2K a year total for the undeveloped lots in this market.
I also agree with you on lots less than 1 acre. All of my lots are in estate subdivisions. I have received R-40 zoning (1 acre) but there is a foot print analysis which will make each lot about 1 1/3 acre each. Paid about 25K an acre 2 years ago for all of these new lots and sold a few at 80K an acre from the old lots 4 years ago. The land is beautiful, hard woods and wildlife everywhere and 3 miles off of the interstate I-575. 5 minutes from every convenience and 2 miles from a new regional hospital. I would not touch the foreclosed on postage stamp lots in those 200K cracker box subdivisions now. I agree that those are a dime a dozen here and everywhere.
I do not like having tenants as they friggin destroy your rental homes unless you are in the 500K+ rental home market. In this market a good %of them will be evicted anyway sogoodluck with that but if you can make it work then that is great.
I will sit and wait, hunt weekly on the property and enjoy having it as Ilive next to it! I bought the original 7 1/2 acres at $3850.00 an acre.


----------



## Zander

I am content to sit this out........

Now you might be thinking, Hey Zander, what is wrong with you? why not just get aggressive and join the rocket launch ride for a while and make some nice money in the short term? 

Well, those who are buying all think they will be able to get out in time...... but they won't. History proves this to be true. On the initial pullback, they will feel a strong urge to "buy the dip" and add to their positions, not thinking the market has topped, but instead feeling like this is yet another great buying opportunity.  WOOHOO!!!

They then find themselves wishing they were on the sidelines as the market accelerates to the downside, but they won't get out....... because they don't want to miss out on the rally that will get their losses back!!!  Finally, at the market bottom, they give up and reason that the market will never come back again. 

That is when I will be buying..... 

Best of luck!


----------



## Toro

Did you cover your short?


----------



## Zander

Toro said:


> Did you cover your short?



I did - I got nervous last week and took a small loss before they announced QE2.


----------



## william the wie

Zander you have explained my love of LEAP straddles I hate timing plays.


----------



## KissMy

GOLD!!!!!!!!!!  $1408.00 per ozt & climbing.


----------



## topspin

Professionals can't time the market, I wouldn't expect hobbiest to be able to.
 Invest in great companies for the long haul.


----------



## Paulie

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Did you cover your short?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I did - I got nervous last week and took a small loss before they announced QE2.
Click to expand...


Even though we knew QE2 was coming, you still chose to sit out the almost certain opportunity to make some cash.

What I'm learning about you here is that this market scares the shit out of you.

I don't blame you, but it would just be nice if you admitted it.  You're playing it SO SAFE, that you're rationalizing missing out on all but guaranteed short term money.

As skittish as you are, I would think you would take profits on the first big 3% loss day.  Who cares if everyone ELSE will miss the mark?

Shoot a little liquor and take a damn RISK!


----------



## Toro

I think that if someone isn't comfortable in something, one shouldn't invest in it. If Zander isn't comfortable investing in stocks right now, he shouldn't do it. That's the advice I would give anyone about any investment.


----------



## Toro

KissMy said:


> GOLD!!!!!!!!!!  $1408.00 per ozt & climbing.



WHOA!  Cheering is bad.


----------



## Paulie

Toro said:


> I think that if someone isn't comfortable in something, one shouldn't invest in it. If Zander isn't comfortable investing in stocks right now, he shouldn't do it. That's the advice I would give anyone about any investment.



I'm just messing with him.

I haven't traded a security in like 8 months.

But that has a lot to do with the fact that I liquidated and invested the money in a business venture.

Although if I had any to play with right now, I probably wouldn't, except for maybe a couple small bets just for fun.


----------



## Zander

The way I see it is this Paulie. I can either follow plan A or plan B: 

Plan A - I can continue to do what I have been doing - playing it safe and buying bonds and t-bills that pay a measly 1-2% - and in about 10 years I retire with a portfolio of sufficient size to comfortably replace 100% of my current "spendable" income at a 4% SWR (*spendable income is my income after investments - once I retire I will not need to continue to invest for retirement!! woohoo!! ) 

OR 

Plan B - I can take the risk of investing in a wildly chaotic and volatile stock market and if I am lucky retire 1 or 2 years earlier- or possibly many years later if things go badly.   Ouch!!  







For me it's a no-brainer - I'll take plan A.  I really don't need to take 'undue' risk at this point of my life.  If the market drops to a level where I feel comfortable with valuations - I'll gladly jump back in and re-establish my long held "Coffee house portfolio".  But until then...I'll just keep earning and saving and enjoying the journey.


----------



## william the wie

Toro said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> GOLD!!!!!!!!!!  $1408.00 per ozt & climbing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WHOA!  Cheering is bad.
Click to expand...

 When something goes this right for me I remember the seven card stud hand where I nailed high Chicago (half the pot for the highest spade in the hole) right at the start. I decided to bluff an open ended three card straight flush. I ended up with high spade, a six card straight flush and almost no money. I like slow steady returns.


----------



## Gadawg73

Zander said:


> The way I see it is this Paulie. I can either follow plan A or plan B:
> 
> Plan A - I can continue to do what I have been doing - playing it safe and buying bonds and t-bills that pay a measly 1-2% - and in about 10 years I retire with a portfolio of sufficient size to comfortably replace 100% of my current "spendable" income at a 4% SWR (*spendable income is my income after investments - once I retire I will not need to continue to invest for retirement!! woohoo!! )
> 
> OR
> 
> Plan B - I can take the risk of investing in a wildly chaotic and volatile stock market and if I am lucky retire 1 or 2 years earlier- or possibly many years later if things go badly.   Ouch!!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> For me it's a no-brainer - I'll take plan A.  I really don't need to take 'undue' risk at this point of my life.  If the market drops to a level where I feel comfortable with valuations - I'll gladly jump back in and re-establish my long held "Coffee house portfolio".  But until then...I'll just keep earning and saving and enjoying the journey.



We are of the same mindset. I am 55 and believe I can work at least another 10 years.


----------



## Toro

william the wie said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> GOLD!!!!!!!!!!  $1408.00 per ozt & climbing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WHOA!  Cheering is bad.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> When something goes this right for me I remember the seven card stud hand where I nailed high Chicago (half the pot for the highest spade in the hole) right at the start. I decided to bluff an open ended three card straight flush. I ended up with high spade, a six card straight flush and almost no money. I like slow steady returns.
Click to expand...


I like big, fast returns.  But one must keep a steady head.  Cheerleading always makes me nervous because it often signals overconfidence, and the trading Gods like to punish overconfidence.


----------



## KissMy

Toro said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> WHOA!  Cheering is bad.
> 
> 
> 
> When something goes this right for me I remember the seven card stud hand where I nailed high Chicago (half the pot for the highest spade in the hole) right at the start. I decided to bluff an open ended three card straight flush. I ended up with high spade, a six card straight flush and almost no money. I like slow steady returns.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I like big, fast returns.  But one must keep a steady head.  Cheerleading always makes me nervous because it often signals overconfidence, and the trading Gods like to punish overconfidence.
Click to expand...


Yes, the trading gods did try to punish the Gold Bugs just before & after the QE2 announcement. The Fed lent more gold to miners to sell on the commodities market & had the Fed's primary dealer banks short gold to scare the Gold Bugs, but it did not work. 

The G20 & Fed fucktards are losing control. Even a large tax hike may have trouble stopping this dollar route. Once the Fed loses control it is going to take a lot more than jawboning to stem Golds rise. It will take actual Spending Cuts, Raising Taxes, Raising Interest Rates & QE Ending Dollar Printing to regain confidence in the Dollar. Fat chance of that happening.


----------



## LordBrownTrout

Personally, I prefer the entrepreneurial route.  I find that to be the most gratifying.  Startups from scratch are tough but I prefer being in control of decision making since I'm dealing with my own money.   I appreciate the knowledge by Toro, Paulie, Wie, and many others over here in regards to the stock market and stocks.  Believe me, I have used it in commodities, precious metals.  Hell, I should probably be sending yall a commission, lol.


----------



## william the wie

Toro said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> WHOA!  Cheering is bad.
> 
> 
> 
> When something goes this right for me I remember the seven card stud hand where I nailed high Chicago (half the pot for the highest spade in the hole) right at the start. I decided to bluff an open ended three card straight flush. I ended up with high spade, a six card straight flush and almost no money. I like slow steady returns.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I like big, fast returns.  But one must keep a steady head.  Cheerleading always makes me nervous because it often signals overconfidence, and the trading Gods like to punish overconfidence.
Click to expand...

That and ignoring the alternatives will blow up right in your face. By the way the odds on you being right about US markets heading for a trading range seem to be improving but Australia's housing boom is hitting some serious headwinds.


----------



## Paulie

LordBrownTrout said:


> Personally, I prefer the entrepreneurial route.  I find that to be the most gratifying.  Startups from scratch are tough but I prefer being in control of decision making since I'm dealing with my own money.   I appreciate the knowledge by Toro, Paulie, Wie, and many others over here in regards to the stock market and stocks.  Believe me, I have used it in commodities, precious metals.  Hell, I should probably be sending yall a commission, lol.



I don't know anything compared to Toro and Wie.

I knew metals were going up though.  I remember I told you to take a little silver off the table back when it was like $21 or so.  And even though it continued going higher and never stopped, I would still tell you the same thing.

There's nothing wrong with take a little profit during such a huge run-up.


----------



## KissMy

Paulie said:


> LordBrownTrout said:
> 
> 
> 
> Personally, I prefer the entrepreneurial route.  I find that to be the most gratifying.  Startups from scratch are tough but I prefer being in control of decision making since I'm dealing with my own money.   I appreciate the knowledge by Toro, Paulie, Wie, and many others over here in regards to the stock market and stocks.  Believe me, I have used it in commodities, precious metals.  Hell, I should probably be sending yall a commission, lol.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I don't know anything compared to Toro and Wie.
> 
> I knew metals were going up though.  I remember I told you to take a little silver off the table back when it was like $21 or so.  And even though it continued going higher and never stopped, I would still tell you the same thing.
> 
> There's nothing wrong with take a little profit during such a huge run-up.
Click to expand...


There is a problem if you are scared out by government manipulation or sell-out before the big run. Commodities are not stocks. Gold & Silver are not Commodities or stocks. People should not play them the same way. Until the things driving down the dollar are actually fixed you should be in Gold & Silver. These forces destroying the dollar are high unemployment, deficit spending, trade deficit, low interest rates & QE money creation.


----------



## topspin

if you have a serious percentage in bonds you better be agile, they are in a huge bubble that will burst worse than the housing market in the next 5 years.


----------



## Paulie

KissMy said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> LordBrownTrout said:
> 
> 
> 
> Personally, I prefer the entrepreneurial route.  I find that to be the most gratifying.  Startups from scratch are tough but I prefer being in control of decision making since I'm dealing with my own money.   I appreciate the knowledge by Toro, Paulie, Wie, and many others over here in regards to the stock market and stocks.  Believe me, I have used it in commodities, precious metals.  Hell, I should probably be sending yall a commission, lol.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I don't know anything compared to Toro and Wie.
> 
> I knew metals were going up though.  I remember I told you to take a little silver off the table back when it was like $21 or so.  And even though it continued going higher and never stopped, I would still tell you the same thing.
> 
> There's nothing wrong with take a little profit during such a huge run-up.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> There is a problem if you are scared out by government manipulation or sell-out before the big run. Commodities are not stocks. Gold & Silver are not Commodities or stocks. People should not play them the same way. Until the things driving down the dollar are actually fixed you should be in Gold & Silver. These forces destroying the dollar are high unemployment, deficit spending, trade deficit, low interest rates & QE money creation.
Click to expand...


I only suggested he take SOME off the table, never to actually sell out.

Buy low sell high still applies.  October had 2 periods of dips in silver where the price corrected by $2.  While it's hard to time that perfectly, it still offers good reason to take a little profit during a run-up.


----------



## LordBrownTrout

KissMy said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> LordBrownTrout said:
> 
> 
> 
> Personally, I prefer the entrepreneurial route.  I find that to be the most gratifying.  Startups from scratch are tough but I prefer being in control of decision making since I'm dealing with my own money.   I appreciate the knowledge by Toro, Paulie, Wie, and many others over here in regards to the stock market and stocks.  Believe me, I have used it in commodities, precious metals.  Hell, I should probably be sending yall a commission, lol.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I don't know anything compared to Toro and Wie.
> 
> I knew metals were going up though.  I remember I told you to take a little silver off the table back when it was like $21 or so.  And even though it continued going higher and never stopped, I would still tell you the same thing.
> 
> There's nothing wrong with take a little profit during such a huge run-up.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> There is a problem if you are scared out by government manipulation or sell-out before the big run. Commodities are not stocks. Gold & Silver are not Commodities or stocks. People should not play them the same way. Until the things driving down the dollar are actually fixed you should be in Gold & Silver. These forces destroying the dollar are high unemployment, deficit spending, trade deficit, low interest rates & QE money creation.
Click to expand...



Government actions ie bailouts, stimulus, etc, two years ago, made my decision to jump into silver.  Yeah, I know stocks aren't precious metals or commodoties.  I decided to start my third business venture in commodoties about four months ago.  

As far as silver, I sold one bag but I'm hanging on to the second and considering buying another.  Silver is in the open water and cruising now. We'll see some minor pullbacks from time to time but I plan on holding on now until silver is 100 an ounce.


----------



## Toro

Well, we have had an intra-day reversal in gold and silver today, so I liquidated all my short term positions.  I intend to buy them back, but after the incredible melt-up over the past five trading days, there _could_ be significant downside.

I blame KissMy!  This is why traders and investors should never cheer!  The Trading Gods are angry!


----------



## KissMy

Toro said:


> Well, we have had an intra-day reversal in gold and silver today, so I liquidated all my short term positions.  I intend to buy them back, but after the incredible melt-up over the past five trading days, there _could_ be significant downside.
> 
> I blame KissMy!  This is why traders and investors should never cheer!  The Trading Gods are angry!



I did the opposite a couple of weeks ago on gold & silver. I got out on the top made a ton of money in my IRA on those trades. This time I got in right after the QE2 announcement & the next day it took off like a rocket. I was pre-occupied today and missed the top by a mile. Now I am still holding lots of Silver & Gold. It looks like all commodities, bonds & stocks across the board started off way high & then reversed end of day losing big by the end. The dollar rallied for no good reason. The swiftness of this move smells. They were preaching ETF flash crash stories around noon. Someone decided to play along.


----------



## Toro

Meh

Silver is up something like 20% since the Fed announcement.  All commodities have screamed higher. It was getting a little nuts. They were due for a correction.  We'll see how long it lasts.


----------



## KissMy

Toro said:


> Meh
> 
> Silver is up something like 20% since the Fed announcement.  All commodities have screamed higher. It was getting a little nuts. They were due for a correction.  We'll see how long it lasts.



Yea silver was crazy high.

It is strange how stocks, bonds, commodities, gold, silver & currencies all reversed on heavy volume. Everyone ran from the dollar due to QE2 and now the dollar had a huge snap back rally. I wonder if it is over now or how far it will go? This could be a big correction but I think most of it already happened.


----------



## Toro

I'd be surprised if it were a big correction.  There is often a hard reversal in the few weeks around Thanksgiving.


----------



## KissMy

This could explain the sudden freakish dollar strength.

(Kitco News) Raise in CME Silver Margins Prompts Sell-Off


> A Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) decision to raise maintenance silver margins from $5,000 to $6,500 triggered a sell-off in the precious metals during after-hours trading late Tuesday, analysts said.
> 
> &#8220;The raise in the silver margins from $5,000 to $6,500, combined with the beginning of a big roll-over from the December to the March contract, makes some people think about taking profits and waiting until the coast cleared,&#8221; said George Gero, vice president and precious-metals strategist with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures.
> 
> Some traders opted to liquidate positions rather than put up the money for the increased margins, said Tom Pawlicki, analyst with MF Global. &#8220;Once the CME came in and raised the margins, that kind of deflated the enthusiasm,&#8221; he said.
> 
> The impact spilled over into other precious metals.
> 
> &#8220;The margins were only raised for silver &#8211; but under the (Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk) or SPAN margining system that the CME uses, the possibility of other margin increases propped up,&#8221;


----------



## william the wie

However you look at it this is a strange3 market.


----------



## Toro

Yeah, the margin requirements probably triggered it.  But it was due.


----------



## william the wie

I am going to check but it looks like the melt-up in the face of insider trading is becoming epic.


----------



## KissMy

Bloomberg - Grantham Says Fed Asset Purchases May Make Stocks `Dangerously Overpriced'


> Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist at Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co., said the Federal Reserves attempt to boost the economy could push U.S. stocks to a level where they will be dangerously overpriced.
> 
> The Feds decision to purchase Treasuries and flood markets with cheap money will drive investors out of cash and encourage them to speculate in stocks, which are already overvalued, Grantham said in an interview with the CNBC cable television network.
> 
> The S&P is already overpriced and if you push it up another 20 percent it becomes dangerously overpriced, Grantham said in the interview, which was posted today on the networks website. In the not-too-distant future stocks will crack again.
> 
> The Feds policies also drive up commodity prices, create fears of inflation and heighten tensions with countries concerned that the decline in the value of the dollar will hurt their exports



*Jeremy Grantham is Long Gold.*


----------



## KissMy

KissMy said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Meh
> 
> Silver is up something like 20% since the Fed announcement.  All commodities have screamed higher. It was getting a little nuts. They were due for a correction.  We'll see how long it lasts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yea silver was crazy high.
> 
> It is strange how stocks, bonds, commodities, gold, silver & currencies all reversed on heavy volume. Everyone ran from the dollar due to QE2 and now the dollar had a huge snap back rally. I wonder if it is over now or how far it will go? This could be a big correction but I think most of it already happened.
Click to expand...


See I told you this could be a big correction. I got out of all commodities yesterday afternoon. I went to hog wild on silver on the run up. I lost a bit on my latest buys before getting out but still had a very profitable 2 weeks. The US, China & the rest of the G20 Governments are doing some serious currency & commodity manipulations. I think I will stay out until Monday & start looking for a low to re-enter on. Gold had almost a $150 profit taking dip after the QE1 run-up. This is likely a similar profit taking dip. Gold may break into the $1270's level before its next climb to new highs of over $1500.


----------



## william the wie

I don't think this market can be called for turns. I bought and sold some today for loss mitigation but for the most part I just leave good/bad enough alone


----------



## KissMy

william the wie said:


> I don't think this market can be called for turns. I bought and sold some today for loss mitigation but for the most part I just leave good/bad enough alone



I could tell the weak dollar trade was getting to easy & crowded. Equities, commodities & currencies are being liquidated for US dollars due to profit taking & over crowed trades. It wont be long now before this unwind hits terminal velocity & overshoots.


----------



## Toro

Maybe Zander was right!

Since QE2 was officially announced, the market has acted just awful.


----------



## william the wie

Toro said:


> Maybe Zander was right!
> 
> Since QE2 was officially announced, the market has acted just awful.


Right too soon is wrong for most things in the market. The only exceptions I am aware of are undervalued dividend payers and black swan hedges.


----------



## Zander

Of course I am right...now that I liquidated my short!! 

The problem with market timing is you have to be right twice.  Which is why I have long advocated a "buy and keep buying and/or buy and hold" philosophy using low cost index funds or ETF's.  With a conservative 60/40 allocation ( i absolutely adore the coffee house portfolio)  and a sufficiently long time horizon, I believe a passive strategy will leave most individual investors far better off than trying to "beat" the market and,  thanks to a healthy dose of bonds, without experiencing too much volatility. 

That being said,  I see a long term downtrend in stocks with massive volatility. Then again, I also see dead people.  

 That is why I am in cash and short duration T-bills/ T-bonds - I'll have lots of dry powder to buy when the trend reverses. (see, there I go dreaming I can time the market again.....)


----------



## topspin

75% of professionals can't time the market, that's why I go with an S&P ETF. Market timing is fun, not many can make a living off of it. I trade about 10% of my portfolio very actively and the other 90% is 50/50 oil and index.


----------



## KissMy

I can time the market direction well enough. I just can't pick & time stocks very well. That is why I trade ETFs.


----------



## william the wie

topspin said:


> 75% of professionals can't time the market, that's why I go with an S&P ETF. Market timing is fun, not many can make a living off of it. I trade about 10% of my portfolio very actively and the other 90% is 50/50 oil and index.


usually the more asset allocations and the simpler structure of the allocations the higher the returns.


----------



## KissMy

If you did not time the market for the past 12 years, then you lost money & value. That buy & hold shit died over a decade ago.


----------



## Zander

KissMy said:


> If you did not time the market for the past 12 years, then you lost money & value. That buy & hold shit died over a decade ago.



You are entitled to your opinion.  

I have a netted a 9% annualized return over the past 20 years "buying and holding" a portfolio with approx.  40% bonds and 60% stocks  I re-balance with new money once or  twice a year.  This is the first time in 20 years I have been out of stocks, and to be quite honest - I wish I never changed my strategy.  Timing the market is a suckers game........


----------



## KissMy

Zander said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> If you did not time the market for the past 12 years, then you lost money & value. That buy & hold shit died over a decade ago.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You are entitled to your opinion.
> 
> I have a netted a 9% annualized return over the past 20 years "buying and holding" a portfolio with approx.  40% bonds and 60% stocks  I re-balance with new money once or  twice a year.  This is the first time in 20 years I have been out of stocks, and to be quite honest - I wish I never changed my strategy.  Timing the market is a suckers game........
Click to expand...


It is not a suckers game. When stocks plunge & everyone is scared & running for cover, that is when you get in. When people are jumping for joy, that is when you get out. If it feels wrong, do it. Early in 2009 after stocks crashed & people were running for the hills & stuffing money in their mattresses. The Presidents Working Group began pushing up the market & the Fed was handing out money causing the markets to rise. You should have jumped into stocks.

Right now is the latest example. A couple of months ago Bernanke announced he may do some do some QE2 money printing if the economy did not improve at a faster pace. At that time he said the Feds decision would be announced on Nov 4th. Traders front ran the Fed & drove the dollar down most of the way before the Nov 4th announcement was made. Once that announcement was made & a few days later the remaining traders dumped dollars, that meant the majority had traded their dollars for Stocks, Commodities, Gold, Silver & other currencies.

I along with most others who dumped those falling dollars were feeling good & pounding our chest about Gold hitting $1435 per ozt, Silver near $30, Oil & stocks making 2 year highs. This is when you know there will be fewer & fewer people trading out of dollars. This is when you start trading into dollars because everyone else is scared of them. It is like everyone ran to one side of the boat & it is starting to roll over. People have to start coming back to the other side of the trade to take profits or they sink with the boat.

As I pointed out in my post on this thread last week. The dollar suddenly got stronger after most traders were glad to be out of those falling dollars.


> Yea silver was crazy high.
> 
> It is strange how stocks, bonds, commodities, gold, silver & currencies all reversed on heavy volume. Everyone ran from the dollar due to QE2 and now the dollar had a huge snap back rally. I wonder if it is over now or how far it will go? This could be a big correction but I think most of it already happened.



This dollar strength should reverse soon. Once Europe bails out their troubled countries & the Euro starts to rise pushing the dollar down then jump back in. If we are not adding over 200k jobs a month, you can bet the Fed will keep on printing. Keep your eye out for weak jobs numbers & a dollar down turn. Then jump back in.


----------



## topspin

I call bs on anyone who can call the market directional turns.


----------



## KissMy

topspin said:


> I call bs on anyone who can call the market directional turns.



The US dollar made a near term high of 79.462 on 11/16/2010 at 12:19PM

Since then Gold, Silver, Stocks & Commodities have been heading up together. That is a sign of a turn.


----------



## william the wie

topspin said:


> I call bs on anyone who can call the market directional turns.


That's what asset allocation models have been doing for over 70 years since publication of "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham made this practice public. I find Zander's use of only two asset classes, not to mention overbalancing to stocks somewhat strange but it is definitely in the ballpark and it is a market timing mechanism designed to catch the middles of trendlines. It does seem to have worked for him.


----------



## Zander

william the wie said:


> topspin said:
> 
> 
> 
> I call bs on anyone who can call the market directional turns.
> 
> 
> 
> That's what asset allocation models have been doing for over 70 years since publication of "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham made this practice public. I find Zander's use of only two asset classes, not to mention overbalancing to stocks somewhat strange but it is definitely in the ballpark and it is a market timing mechanism designed to catch the middles of trendlines. It does seem to have worked for him.
Click to expand...



I was a commodites trader and held a Series 3 license for several years when I was younger. I learned a lot. The most valuable lesson I learned is that 90% of commodities traders LOSE. These days I prefer to invest my human capital and brainpower in building my business rather than trying to "beat the market".  That effort generates the income that I then use to invest.  So when it comes to portfolio models - I like a nice simple strategy that outperforms 80% of active traders over 10 years. 

Here is an exercise that illustrates my point. You are the contestant in this game. There are ten boxes, and you know how much is in each box. These are your choices, it looks something like this.

$1000 	$2000 	$3000 	$4000 	$5000
$6000 	$7000 	$8000 	$9000 	$10,000

Which box will you choose? (Remember, you know how much is in each box)

This is not a trick question. Anyone would choose the $10,000 box.

This time lets change the rules a little. This time only the $8000 box is shown. It looks something like this.

$8000 	?? 	?? 	?? 	??
  ?? 	        ?? 	?? 	?? 	??

Now which box will you choose?

The answer is also obvious  you would choose the $8000 box.

Why? Because the chance of increasing your winnings is not worth the risk of choosing an amount substantially less, unless of course you are a gambler....... When I want to gamble I will go to Vegas and play Craps.  If KissmMy and others want to try to time the markets "seeking alpha" -go for it - your broker will appreciate the commission,  and maybe you'll actually outperform the market. Of course over 10 years you will have an 80% likelihood of under-performing the market.     


PS - I have other asset classes - I own commercial and residential real estate and a small amount of precious metals.   I was just keeping things simple for the purposes of this forum.


----------



## Paulie

Zander said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> topspin said:
> 
> 
> 
> I call bs on anyone who can call the market directional turns.
> 
> 
> 
> That's what asset allocation models have been doing for over 70 years since publication of "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham made this practice public. I find Zander's use of only two asset classes, not to mention overbalancing to stocks somewhat strange but it is definitely in the ballpark and it is a market timing mechanism designed to catch the middles of trendlines. It does seem to have worked for him.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> I was a commodites trader and held a Series 3 license for several years when I was younger. I learned a lot. The most valuable lesson I learned is that 90% of commodities traders LOSE. These days I prefer to invest my human capital and brainpower in building my business rather than trying to "beat the market".  That effort generates the income that I then use to invest.  So when it comes to portfolio models - I like a nice simple strategy that outperforms 80% of active traders over 10 years.
> 
> Here is an exercise that illustrates my point. You are the contestant in this game. There are ten boxes, and you know how much is in each box. These are your choices, it looks something like this.
> 
> $1000 	$2000 	$3000 	$4000 	$5000
> $6000 	$7000 	$8000 	$9000 	$10,000
> 
> Which box will you choose? (Remember, you know how much is in each box)
> 
> This is not a trick question. Anyone would choose the $10,000 box.
> 
> This time lets change the rules a little. This time only the $8000 box is shown. It looks something like this.
> 
> $8000 	?? 	?? 	?? 	??
> ?? 	        ?? 	?? 	?? 	??
> 
> Now which box will you choose?
> 
> The answer is also obvious  you would choose the $8000 box.
> 
> Why? Because the chance of increasing your winnings is not worth the risk of choosing an amount substantially less, unless of course you are a gambler....... When I want to gamble I will go to Vegas and play Craps.  If KissmMy and others want to try to time the markets "seeking alpha" -go for it - your broker will appreciate the commission,  and maybe you'll actually outperform the market. Of course over 10 years you will have an 80% likelihood of under-performing the market.
> 
> 
> PS - I have other asset classes - I own commercial and residential real estate and a small amount of precious metals.   I was just keeping things simple for the purposes of this forum.
Click to expand...

Your scenario is seriously flawed though.

I can choose $8k, or pick from the rest of the 9 unknowns where only one of the 9 is higher than $8k?  No one is going to gamble those odds.

The show Deal or No Deal is a better representation of how to play your odds.


----------



## Zander

Paulie said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> 
> That's what asset allocation models have been doing for over 70 years since publication of "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham made this practice public. I find Zander's use of only two asset classes, not to mention overbalancing to stocks somewhat strange but it is definitely in the ballpark and it is a market timing mechanism designed to catch the middles of trendlines. It does seem to have worked for him.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I was a commodites trader and held a Series 3 license for several years when I was younger. I learned a lot. The most valuable lesson I learned is that 90% of commodities traders LOSE. These days I prefer to invest my human capital and brainpower in building my business rather than trying to "beat the market".  That effort generates the income that I then use to invest.  So when it comes to portfolio models - I like a nice simple strategy that outperforms 80% of active traders over 10 years.
> 
> Here is an exercise that illustrates my point. You are the contestant in this game. There are ten boxes, and you know how much is in each box. These are your choices, it looks something like this&#8230;.
> 
> $1000 	$2000 	$3000 	$4000 	$5000
> $6000 	$7000 	$8000 	$9000 	$10,000
> 
> Which box will you choose? (Remember, you know how much is in each box)
> 
> This is not a trick question. Anyone would choose the $10,000 box.
> 
> This time let&#8217;s change the rules a little. This time only the $8000 box is shown. It looks something like this&#8230;.
> 
> $8000 	?? 	?? 	?? 	??
> ?? 	        ?? 	?? 	?? 	??
> 
> Now which box will you choose?
> 
> The answer is also obvious &#8211; you would choose the $8000 box.
> 
> Why? Because the chance of increasing your winnings is not worth the risk of choosing an amount substantially less, unless of course you are a gambler....... When I want to gamble I will go to Vegas and play Craps.  If KissmMy and others want to try to time the markets "seeking alpha" -go for it - your broker will appreciate the commission,  and maybe you'll actually outperform the market. Of course over 10 years you will have an 80% likelihood of under-performing the market.
> 
> 
> PS - I have other asset classes - I own commercial and residential real estate and a small amount of precious metals.   I was just keeping things simple for the purposes of this forum.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Your scenario is seriously flawed though.
> 
> I can choose $8k, or pick from the rest of the 9 unknowns where only one of the 9 is higher than $8k?  No one is going to gamble those odds.
> 
> The show Deal or No Deal is a better representation of how to play your odds.
Click to expand...


Paulie, Two of the choices are higher - 9k or 10K. 

I admit it is a simple example, but it makes my point. Research shows that over 10 years index funds beats 80% of actively managed (traded) funds in the same category.  So what does that tell you?  

If you think you are smarter (or luckier)  than professional mutual fund managers who spend 40+ hours a week analyzing and choosing securities and investments,  then active trading is a good strategy.  Have at it - I hope you make a large fortune!!  But for the vast majority of investors a passive approaches that use low cost index funds is a better strategy.  

Of course some people simply enjoy trading -  if you are one of those people, go for it - just don't do it with your "serious" money.


----------



## Toro

Most people can't trade and invest properly.  I advise most people not to do it.  People are literally hardwired to do poorly investing and trading.  I've done well over the years, but that is because it is all I do, and I've learned to deal with the powerful cognitive biases that are enormous barriers to profitable investing.


----------



## KissMy

Well I lost big on most of my buy & hold stocks. Timing is the only thing working for me. I only do it during times when I can clearly see what is happening like now. Front running the Fed who telegraphs its moves is like shooting fish in a barrel. Once the market gets murky I will sit it out even for a year sometimes. I only get interested in shorting stocks just before & buying just after a big crash.

I was long oil & once oil prices went straight up in 2007 & during Q3-2007 T. Boon Pickins was preaching that in Q4-2007 oil demand will out-stripped supply. I knew a big crash was near. I shorted ETF index funds the first day of Q4-2007 for that reason. I got out of oil the day Bush removed the executive order banning drilling of the OCS. I went big into gold on election day 2008 knowing the new president Obama would crank up the printing press to make a name for himself / ego / prevent failure. I can make more in a few weeks at those times than the buy & holders will. I spend most of my time on the sidelines.

This morning I picked up 2,000 (SLV) ETFs for $25.85 after noticing that turn in the dollar in all asset classes that happened 2 days ago. I posted that turn here. I was up almost a dollar a share as of an hour ago. Thats 4% today. I plan on selling at $28.35 over the next couple of trading days unless something changes.


----------



## william the wie

I like the motto that your portfolio should not merely let you sleep but pretty much put you to sleep.


----------



## KissMy

I can't find any index fund or ETF that has out performed Gold & Silver since Obama was elected.

I do not trust many individual stocks any more. I have lost a lot of hard earned money buying them over the past 20 years. I do better at poker or the slots than buying individual stocks. Its like playing lier's poker with the CEO who cooks the books & pumps up those reports.

Once the Fed is done printing way down the road I will probably buy land.


----------



## Zander

KissMy said:


> I can't find any index fund or ETF that has out performed Gold & Silver since Obama was elected.
> 
> I do not trust many individual stocks any more. I have lost a lot of hard earned money buying them over the past 20 years. I do better at poker or the slots than buying individual stocks. Its like playing lier's poker with the CEO who cooks the books & pumps up those reports.
> 
> Once the Fed is done printing way down the road I will probably buy land.



The GLD ETF has matched the performance of gold over the last 2 years....

GLD Basic Chart | SPDR Gold Trust Stock - Yahoo! Finance


----------



## KissMy

Zander said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> I can't find any index fund or ETF that has out performed Gold & Silver since Obama was elected.
> 
> I do not trust many individual stocks any more. I have lost a lot of hard earned money buying them over the past 20 years. I do better at poker or the slots than buying individual stocks. Its like playing lier's poker with the CEO who cooks the books & pumps up those reports.
> 
> Once the Fed is done printing way down the road I will probably buy land.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The GLD ETF has matched the performance of gold over the last 2 years....
> 
> GLD Basic Chart | SPDR Gold Trust Stock - Yahoo! Finance
Click to expand...


Well yes of course the GLD & SLV are the ones I buy & sell. I use them for quick trades & short them to offset my physical metals in my safe when prices are falling. It is to hard to get the physical metals & assay it so I offset price declines instead of selling my Gold. Even these ETFs are not keeping up with physical Gold & Silver prices. You will pay $150 over 10xGLD for a physical Gold coin. You will pay $2.50 over SLV for a physical Silver coin.


----------



## Zander

KissMy said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> I can't find any index fund or ETF that has out performed Gold & Silver since Obama was elected.
> 
> I do not trust many individual stocks any more. I have lost a lot of hard earned money buying them over the past 20 years. I do better at poker or the slots than buying individual stocks. Its like playing lier's poker with the CEO who cooks the books & pumps up those reports.
> 
> Once the Fed is done printing way down the road I will probably buy land.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The GLD ETF has matched the performance of gold over the last 2 years....
> 
> GLD Basic Chart | SPDR Gold Trust Stock - Yahoo! Finance
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Well yes of course the GLD & SLV are the ones I buy & sell. I use them for quick trades & short them to offset my physical metals in my safe when prices are falling. It is to hard to get the physical metals & assay it so I offset price declines instead of selling my Gold. Even these ETFs are not keeping up with physical Gold & Silver prices. You will pay $150 over 10xGLD for a physical Gold coin. You will pay $2.50 over SLV for a physical Silver coin.
Click to expand...


The ETF's are a lot easier to work with.....good luck getting the "spot" price for your physical gold when you are selling it......You pay a premium when you buy, and you get less than market price when you sell. It's just the nature of the beast......


----------



## Toro

The reason to own physical gold is because of the mismatch between the physical and futures contracts, and the potential squeeze if there were ever a run on gold.  For example, there is something like $140 billion in futures contracts outstanding in the United States, but only $3 billion worth of gold available for delivery against those futures contracts at any given time.  Futures holders have the option to settle in cash or take physical delivery.  Usually, they settle in cash, which is the default option.  The idea is that if the demand to settle is ever greater than the amount available to deliver, i.e. more than $3 billion, then a mad scramble will ensue, causing the exchanges to pay any price for physical gold to settle.  

FTR, I don't own physical gold, but I have thought about buying coins or bars and keeping them in a safety deposit box in Canada.  However, I have not done that, at least thus far.  I have thought it too cumbersome and the spreads too wide.


----------



## KissMy

Zander said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> The GLD ETF has matched the performance of gold over the last 2 years....
> 
> GLD Basic Chart | SPDR Gold Trust Stock - Yahoo! Finance
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Well yes of course the GLD & SLV are the ones I buy & sell. I use them for quick trades & short them to offset my physical metals in my safe when prices are falling. It is to hard to get the physical metals & assay it so I offset price declines instead of selling my Gold. Even these ETFs are not keeping up with physical Gold & Silver prices. You will pay $150 over 10xGLD for a physical Gold coin. You will pay $2.50 over SLV for a physical Silver coin.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> The ETF's are a lot easier to work with.....good luck getting the "spot" price for your physical gold when you are selling it......You pay a premium when you buy, and you get less than market price when you sell. It's just the nature of the beast......
Click to expand...


2% off spot is standard the transaction fee for shipping & assay when trading coins. Ironically that is less than the hidden 3% transaction fee everyone pays for credit card purchase.

I won't be selling the physical metals. I am in them & adding to them for the long haul. Unless the national debt actually starts to decline, everyone should have 10%-20% of their savings in physical Gold & Silver. There is no chance the deficit will decline over the next 20 years with the baby-boomer's retiring. If there is a sudden change in price I can use the ETFs to offset my physical holdings.


----------



## KissMy

Look-Out China just hiked interest rates another 0.5%

Bernanke speaking in Europe this morning stands firm & likely to increase QE2 money printing. He said something like the term "Quantitative Easing" does not accurately describe the money he is prepared to inject into the economy.

This should cause the Chinese Yuan - US Dollar peg to break but China keeps propping up the dollar. You would think some day these guys would get tired of supporting US. I bailed on my (SLV) holdings at $26.66


----------



## KissMy

The CME is raising margin requirements on commodities accross the board at the end of the day.

Back away from Gold, Silver & Commodities. Between China's rate hike & the CME margin hikes Commodities are going to get pounded.


----------



## Zander

Are we following in Japan's footsteps? Sure looks like it to me.....


----------



## william the wie

You certainly have company in your opinion Zander and your premise is certainly defensible that said I agree with Twain "History does not repeat but it does rhyme."


----------



## KissMy

We're Long Gold... AND the Dollar

With the meltdown in the Euro, the US Dollar & Gold are safe havens. This is extremely bad for the stock market.


----------



## william the wie

KissMy said:


> We're Long Gold... AND the Dollar
> 
> With the meltdown in the Euro, the US Dollar & Gold are safe havens. This is extremely bad for the stock market.


Would you flesh out your reasoning, please? What you are saying accords with observed fact but I don't see the sense of it.


----------



## FactFinder

*Time to short Stocks!*

Way past time. The same old tired investments have been hashing around for too many years. Can't keep sucking a dried up lemon. Time to look for innovation, research and inventions.


----------



## Trajan

I have agold for a while. I bought at 998. I had it sent to me, where I can get to it and its in the smallest increments possible. 

I didn't buy then for a quick buck and I am holding it now even with a tidy profit.  I am holding it not so much as a capital fiscal hedge, but as an expense hedge,  I want the peace of mind, if things get worse, and I firmly believe they will, I like knowing I can still buy what I need when I need it and at a reasonable ( as compared to where we are going) price. Comparatively on a historical basis  gold has more room to run and I believe it will. 

I think most people think it could ever get bad enough that one would actually cash gold  to buy something, being in the moment twists reality in this context. I cannot lose but only come out ahead at this point. I sleep better.


----------



## FactFinder

How you going to get change?

When was the last time people actually could use gold to buy stuff? If things are that bad I think relying on hunting, fishing, gardening and other basic skills will go farther. 

Your gold would be rather useless for me.


----------



## Trajan

FactFinder said:


> How you going to get change?




its about value. barter is far from dead.  I already have worked out a deal with my mechanic for instance and my home contractor.


----------



## Trajan

FactFinder said:


> How you going to get change?
> 
> When was the last time people actually could use gold to buy stuff?



exactly...and exactly what I intended when I said reality gets twisted in the moment. it happened before BUT it can't happen now? I am not talking about groceries although I could do that, that ot my intent, if things are that bad, I'll be in even better shape but thats not my plan for it. 




> If things are that bad I think relying on hunting, fishing, gardening and other basic skills will go farther.
> 
> Your gold would be rather useless for me.



well, thats you.


----------



## Toro

FactFinder said:


> How you going to get change?
> 
> When was the last time people actually could use gold to buy stuff? If things are that bad I think relying on hunting, fishing, gardening and other basic skills will go farther.
> 
> Your gold would be rather useless for me.



Gold is a store of value.  You hold gold to exchange it for less valuable dollars in the future.


----------



## FactFinder

Toro said:


> FactFinder said:
> 
> 
> 
> How you going to get change?
> 
> When was the last time people actually could use gold to buy stuff? If things are that bad I think relying on hunting, fishing, gardening and other basic skills will go farther.
> 
> Your gold would be rather useless for me.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold is a store of value.  You hold gold to exchange it for less valuable dollars in the future.
Click to expand...


Now if things are that bad...why would I want less valuable dollars even less valuable euros or worse case juan? 

Again I ask, when was the last time people could use gold to buy stuff? Instead of wallowing in fear people just need to get out their roto tiller, shovel, hoe, fishing rod, axe or whatever and get industrious. Give some of your shit to your neighbor and he'll give something useful back to ya. 

I trust in God and a strong back. You can keep that crappy yellow stuff.


----------



## Toro

FactFinder said:


> I trust in God and a strong back. You can keep that crappy yellow stuff.



I will. And all the profits I've made from it.


----------



## FireFly

FactFinder said:


> Now if things are that bad...why would I want less valuable dollars even less valuable euros or worse case juan?
> 
> Again I ask, when was the last time people could use gold to buy stuff? Instead of wallowing in fear people just need to get out their roto tiller, shovel, hoe, fishing rod, axe or whatever and get industrious. Give some of your shit to your neighbor and he'll give something useful back to ya.
> 
> I trust in God and a strong back. You can keep that crappy yellow stuff.



Gold is for when you or your neighbor need things that are not produced locally. If you need medical supplies, gasoline, rare earth magnets, solar panels, wind turbine, fertilizer, pesticides, grid tied power inverter, life saving medical treatment, etc & on & on. Gold allows you to barter with anyone on the planet not just a trusting neighbor.


----------



## william the wie

FireFly said:


> FactFinder said:
> 
> 
> 
> Now if things are that bad...why would I want less valuable dollars even less valuable euros or worse case juan?
> 
> Again I ask, when was the last time people could use gold to buy stuff? Instead of wallowing in fear people just need to get out their roto tiller, shovel, hoe, fishing rod, axe or whatever and get industrious. Give some of your shit to your neighbor and he'll give something useful back to ya.
> 
> I trust in God and a strong back. You can keep that crappy yellow stuff.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold is for when you or your neighbor need things that are not produced locally. If you need medical supplies, gasoline, rare earth magnets, solar panels, wind turbine, fertilizer, pesticides, grid tied power inverter, life saving medical treatment, etc & on & on. Gold allows you to barter with anyone on the planet not just a trusting neighbor.
Click to expand...

My wife and I are already doing both. But now may be the time to short. A lot of indicators are getting awfully bearish.


----------



## KissMy

william the wie said:


> FireFly said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FactFinder said:
> 
> 
> 
> Now if things are that bad...why would I want less valuable dollars even less valuable euros or worse case juan?
> 
> Again I ask, when was the last time people could use gold to buy stuff? Instead of wallowing in fear people just need to get out their roto tiller, shovel, hoe, fishing rod, axe or whatever and get industrious. Give some of your shit to your neighbor and he'll give something useful back to ya.
> 
> I trust in God and a strong back. You can keep that crappy yellow stuff.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold is for when you or your neighbor need things that are not produced locally. If you need medical supplies, gasoline, rare earth magnets, solar panels, wind turbine, fertilizer, pesticides, grid tied power inverter, life saving medical treatment, etc & on & on. Gold allows you to barter with anyone on the planet not just a trusting neighbor.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> My wife and I are already doing both. But now may be the time to short. A lot of indicators are getting awfully bearish.
Click to expand...


I have stopped selling gold because of bearish indicators. The only time I sell is after a big run-up that looses momentum in a majority of world currencies, then I sell until it comes back 5%. I use Kitco.com to monitor Gold prices in all currencies by looking at the exchange rate table at the bottom of the main page. For a quick reference you can use the Gold Price Change due to Predominant Buying/Selling number at the top of Kitco's page. Kitco prices move before the ETFs & stocks. Kitco is the street spot price that coin dealers & pawn shops use.

There is so much wrong with the economies of the world right now you never know what shoe is going to drop next, but believe me shoes are going to fall. Gold will not be bearish until we see a panic run for gold by a large percent of the global population with huge & rapid up-swing in price.


----------



## william the wie

This is the stock thread not the gold and silver thread kissmy. I'm not shorting gold.


----------



## FireFly

KissMy said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FireFly said:
> 
> 
> 
> Gold is for when you or your neighbor need things that are not produced locally. If you need medical supplies, gasoline, rare earth magnets, solar panels, wind turbine, fertilizer, pesticides, grid tied power inverter, life saving medical treatment, etc & on & on. Gold allows you to barter with anyone on the planet not just a trusting neighbor.
> 
> 
> 
> My wife and I are already doing both. But now may be the time to short. A lot of indicators are getting awfully bearish.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I have stopped selling gold because of bearish indicators. The only time I sell is after a big run-up that looses momentum in a majority of world currencies, then I sell until it comes back 5%. I use Kitco.com to monitor Gold prices in all currencies by looking at the exchange rate table at the bottom of the main page. For a quick reference you can use the Gold Price Change due to Predominant Buying/Selling number at the top of Kitco's page. Kitco prices move before the ETFs & stocks. Kitco is the street spot price that coin dealers & pawn shops use.
> 
> There is so much wrong with the economies of the world right now you never know what shoe is going to drop next, but believe me shoes are going to fall. Gold will not be bearish until we see a panic run for gold by a large percent of the global population with huge & rapid up-swing in price.
Click to expand...


My thoughts exactly. Gold is not plummeting even when indicators show signs of topping. Gold has massive world wide following. This is not some stock that the wall-street crooks can pump & dump or short driving people out. They are playing those games, hell governments & central banks around the world are playing that game. The thing their bluff has been called by citizens around the globe. Gold is the peoples money that the banksters & politrixters can not manipulate or steal unless you let them. Paper currency is the tool of the rich government masters.


----------



## Toro

FireFly said:


> My thoughts exactly. Gold is not plummeting even when indicators show signs of topping.



What indicators are you seeing that makes you think gold is topping?


----------



## KissMy

Toro said:


> FireFly said:
> 
> 
> 
> My thoughts exactly. Gold is not plummeting even when indicators show signs of topping.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What indicators are you seeing that makes you think gold is topping?
Click to expand...


The lack of trading volume at the last peak & a decline in Gold ETFs gold holding has most of the gold bugs parroting take profits. The thing is many people have taken possession of their metals which leaves less in the markets to trade & leverage. There is almost a complete lack of physical gold to be had right now. A friend of mine ordered gold 2 months ago & has been told he may get it next year.

US Mint says has run out on Buffalo gold coins Mon Sep 27, 2010


> The U.S. Mint has run out of a type of highly pure gold coin it had been selling amid record high prices of gold.
> The mint said it will not stock more of the 1-ounce, 24-karat American Buffalo bullion coins.
> 
> "The United States Mint has depleted its inventory of 2010 American Buffalo One Ounce Gold Bullion Coins," the Mint said in a statement, seen by Reuters on Monday.
> 
> Officials at the Mint could not immediately be reached for comment.


----------



## The Rabbi

This has absolutely all the makings of a bubble, just like real estate and stocks. The radio ads touting gold, the buyers advertising for it.  The new highs weekly.
When interest rates rise (and they are already going up) this will fall like a gold balloon.


----------



## KissMy

The Rabbi said:


> This has absolutely all the makings of a bubble, just like real estate and stocks. The radio ads touting gold, the buyers advertising for it.  The new highs weekly.
> *When interest rates rise *(and they are already going up) this will fall like a gold balloon.



That is funny. Do you really think Bernanke will ever let the interest rate rise? He has already signaled QE3 to drive them down further to drive employment yet employment is still in decline along with housing.

The total amount of gold in the world that is above ground is 4,501,104,720ozt. To visualize this imagine a single solid gold cube with edges of about 19 meters (about three meters short of the length of a tennis court). That's all that has ever been produced. Divided among the population of the world there are about 0.61658ozt per person, about 1.2 cubic centimeters each. At $1,400 per ozt this equates to about $863.23 worth per person on Earth.

The size of the US debt is $13.86 Trillion. Divide that by the world gold supply equals $3,079.24 per ozt. Now how much world debt is there? How many $Trillion of bonds are in the world. How much world paper currency is there? The US alone has over $111 Trillion in unfunded mandates. How many $Trillion worth of unfunded pensions are there? There are also over $600 Trillion worth of derivatives out there. About 20% of the world's gold was held by central banks before the crisis at which time over 80% of the worlds gold was in private hands. Of that 20% previously held by central banks of the world, only a small percent was held by the US central bank/Federal Reserve. Even with all the ads out that promise cash for gold, people still are not willing to part with their gold.


----------



## editec

FireFly said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> 
> My wife and I are already doing both. But now may be the time to short. A lot of indicators are getting awfully bearish.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I have stopped selling gold because of bearish indicators. The only time I sell is after a big run-up that looses momentum in a majority of world currencies, then I sell until it comes back 5%. I use Kitco.com to monitor Gold prices in all currencies by looking at the exchange rate table at the bottom of the main page. For a quick reference you can use the Gold Price Change due to Predominant Buying/Selling number at the top of Kitco's page. Kitco prices move before the ETFs & stocks. Kitco is the street spot price that coin dealers & pawn shops use.
> 
> There is so much wrong with the economies of the world right now you never know what shoe is going to drop next, but believe me shoes are going to fall. Gold will not be bearish until we see a panic run for gold by a large percent of the global population with huge & rapid up-swing in price.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> My thoughts exactly. Gold is not plummeting even when indicators show signs of topping. Gold has massive world wide following. This is not some stock that the wall-street crooks can pump & dump or short driving people out. They are playing those games, hell governments & central banks around the world are playing that game. The thing their bluff has been called by citizens around the globe. Gold is the peoples money that the banksters & politrixters can not manipulate or steal unless you let them. Paper currency is the tool of the rich government masters.
Click to expand...

 


*



This is not some stock that the wall-street crooks can pump & dump or short driving people out. 

Click to expand...

* 
No?

You might be in for a terrible shock if you believe that the metal market pricing cannot be manipulated.

I'll tell you what gold and silver prices really are, though...an excellent barometer of the confidence zeitgeist.


----------



## The Rabbi

KissMy said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> This has absolutely all the makings of a bubble, just like real estate and stocks. The radio ads touting gold, the buyers advertising for it.  The new highs weekly.
> *When interest rates rise *(and they are already going up) this will fall like a gold balloon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That is funny. Do you really think Bernanke will ever let the interest rate rise? He has already signaled QE3 to drive them down further to drive employment yet employment is still in decline along with housing.
> 
> The total amount of gold in the world that is above ground is 4,501,104,720ozt. To visualize this imagine a single solid gold cube with edges of about 19 meters (about three meters short of the length of a tennis court). That's all that has ever been produced. Divided among the population of the world there are about 0.61658ozt per person, about 1.2 cubic centimeters each. At $1,400 per ozt this equates to about $863.23 worth per person on Earth.
> 
> The size of the US debt is $13.86 Trillion. Divide that by the world gold supply equals $3,079.24 per ozt. Now how much world debt is there? How many $Trillion of bonds are in the world. How much world paper currency is there? The US alone has over $111 Trillion in unfunded mandates. How many $Trillion worth of unfunded pensions are there? There are also over $600 Trillion worth of derivatives out there. About 20% of the world's gold was held by central banks before the crisis at which time over 80% of the worlds gold was in private hands. Of that 20% previously held by central banks of the world, only a small percent was held by the US central bank/Federal Reserve. Even with all the ads out that promise cash for gold, people still are not willing to part with their gold.
Click to expand...


Bernanke has no power over long term rates, which have been rising both here and abroad.
Most of the rest of what you write is crap, mainly repeating things hawked by gold sellers.


----------



## Paulie

The Rabbi said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> This has absolutely all the makings of a bubble, just like real estate and stocks. The radio ads touting gold, the buyers advertising for it.  The new highs weekly.
> *When interest rates rise *(and they are already going up) this will fall like a gold balloon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That is funny. Do you really think Bernanke will ever let the interest rate rise? He has already signaled QE3 to drive them down further to drive employment yet employment is still in decline along with housing.
> 
> The total amount of gold in the world that is above ground is 4,501,104,720ozt. To visualize this imagine a single solid gold cube with edges of about 19 meters (about three meters short of the length of a tennis court). That's all that has ever been produced. Divided among the population of the world there are about 0.61658ozt per person, about 1.2 cubic centimeters each. At $1,400 per ozt this equates to about $863.23 worth per person on Earth.
> 
> The size of the US debt is $13.86 Trillion. Divide that by the world gold supply equals $3,079.24 per ozt. Now how much world debt is there? How many $Trillion of bonds are in the world. How much world paper currency is there? The US alone has over $111 Trillion in unfunded mandates. How many $Trillion worth of unfunded pensions are there? There are also over $600 Trillion worth of derivatives out there. About 20% of the world's gold was held by central banks before the crisis at which time over 80% of the worlds gold was in private hands. Of that 20% previously held by central banks of the world, only a small percent was held by the US central bank/Federal Reserve. Even with all the ads out that promise cash for gold, people still are not willing to part with their gold.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Bernanke has no power over long term rates, which have been rising both here and abroad.
> Most of the rest of what you write is crap, mainly repeating things hawked by gold sellers.
Click to expand...


You seriously don't understand the correlation between Bernanke's monetary policy and gold prices right now?

The Fed has created about 2 trillion dollars of brand new money and injected it into bank reserves.  The possible money multiplier implications for this is downright terrifying.

Bernanke can't extinguish enough bank reserves at this point to make rates come up.  This is why he's been messing around with the discount window rate, and why interest has been getting paid on reserves.  They are fake-me-out moves to create the perception that the Fed has the power to make interest rates rise, when they currently have just about zero power to do so.

They would literally have to sell about 1 trillion in assets in the open market to make any kind of dent in the federal funds rate and get it to come up.  There's just been too much money created at this point.

To assume inflation has no potential to be catastrophic in the future here because of our monetary policy, is to assume that the Fed can actually manage to exit their asset positions in a manner in which enough reserves are extinguished at the precise time to avoid any significant inflation of the money supply.

The reason why gold continues higher is because the smart money is on Federal Reserve failure.

Now Bernanke speaks of ANOTHER round of QE.

Why the fuck would you NOT have your money in gold right now???


----------



## The Rabbi

Damn.  I KNEW there was a reason I had you on ignore.  Made me look.


----------



## Toro

The Rabbi said:


> This has absolutely all the makings of a bubble, just like real estate and stocks. The radio ads touting gold, the buyers advertising for it.  The new highs weekly.
> When interest rates rise (and they are already going up) this will fall like a gold balloon.



I agree with you.  One day this will become a bubble.  And one day it will collapse violently.  But we're not even close to that IMHO, nor to where the tech and housing bubbles were.

I also agree that rising rates is what will kill the precious metals bubble.  However, gold and silver both rose from 2003 through 2007 when the Fed funds rate rose from 1% to 5.25%.  Also, if you look at when gold last peaked in 1980, it quadrupled even though the long bond yield rose from 8% to 11%.

So IMHO there is still some ways to go.


----------



## KissMy

The Rabbi said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> This has absolutely all the makings of a bubble, just like real estate and stocks. The radio ads touting gold, the buyers advertising for it.  The new highs weekly.
> *When interest rates rise *(and they are already going up) this will fall like a gold balloon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That is funny. Do you really think Bernanke will ever let the interest rate rise? He has already signaled QE3 to drive them down further to drive employment yet employment is still in decline along with housing.
> 
> The total amount of gold in the world that is above ground is 4,501,104,720ozt. To visualize this imagine a single solid gold cube with edges of about 19 meters (about three meters short of the length of a tennis court). That's all that has ever been produced. Divided among the population of the world there are about 0.61658ozt per person, about 1.2 cubic centimeters each. At $1,400 per ozt this equates to about $863.23 worth per person on Earth.
> 
> The size of the US debt is $13.86 Trillion. Divide that by the world gold supply equals $3,079.24 per ozt. Now how much world debt is there? How many $Trillion of bonds are in the world. How much world paper currency is there? The US alone has over $111 Trillion in unfunded mandates. How many $Trillion worth of unfunded pensions are there? There are also over $600 Trillion worth of derivatives out there. About 20% of the world's gold was held by central banks before the crisis at which time over 80% of the worlds gold was in private hands. Of that 20% previously held by central banks of the world, only a small percent was held by the US central bank/Federal Reserve. Even with all the ads out that promise cash for gold, people still are not willing to part with their gold.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Bernanke has no power over long term rates, which have been rising both here and abroad.
> Most of the rest of what you write is crap, mainly repeating things hawked by gold sellers.
Click to expand...


You are the one repeating crap you hear on CNBC. For 2 years now their old bald head experts have been saying interest rates will rise & the Fed will let them rise. They were wrong & rates have been going down. You do realize the Fed has 2 policy goals for which it was created. They are in conflict, one is to print money & lower rates until we get unemployment to 5% which is full employment. The other is to keep the dollar strong. Over the past 40 years since the dollar came off the gold standard, necessary nonrenewable commodities have risen 8% per year against the US dollar. I see no reason for Fed to not at least maintain that level of inflation. I believe they will increase the inflation going foreword to split the difference in their 2 goals. They will create just enough inflation to keep unemployment heading down & keep the dollar in slow decline. That mean above 8% per year in nonrenewable commodities likely 12% annual inflation until 2013.

You are the one who is repeating crap & have been repeating crap all year. The only bubble is the US dollar. Google define market bubble. You will see that it describes US dollar, unfunded mandates & bonds exactly. You are a victim of group think. We just witnessed Republicans & Democrats extend entitlement spending & tax cuts. The increased US government bond sales has driven up bonds, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly.


----------



## Paulie

KissMy said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> That is funny. Do you really think Bernanke will ever let the interest rate rise? He has already signaled QE3 to drive them down further to drive employment yet employment is still in decline along with housing.
> 
> The total amount of gold in the world that is above ground is 4,501,104,720ozt. To visualize this imagine a single solid gold cube with edges of about 19 meters (about three meters short of the length of a tennis court). That's all that has ever been produced. Divided among the population of the world there are about 0.61658ozt per person, about 1.2 cubic centimeters each. At $1,400 per ozt this equates to about $863.23 worth per person on Earth.
> 
> The size of the US debt is $13.86 Trillion. Divide that by the world gold supply equals $3,079.24 per ozt. Now how much world debt is there? How many $Trillion of bonds are in the world. How much world paper currency is there? The US alone has over $111 Trillion in unfunded mandates. How many $Trillion worth of unfunded pensions are there? There are also over $600 Trillion worth of derivatives out there. About 20% of the world's gold was held by central banks before the crisis at which time over 80% of the worlds gold was in private hands. Of that 20% previously held by central banks of the world, only a small percent was held by the US central bank/Federal Reserve. Even with all the ads out that promise cash for gold, people still are not willing to part with their gold.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bernanke has no power over long term rates, which have been rising both here and abroad.
> Most of the rest of what you write is crap, mainly repeating things hawked by gold sellers.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> You are the one repeating crap you hear on CNBC. For 2 years now their old bald head experts have been saying interest rates will rise & the Fed will let them rise. They were wrong & rates have been going down. You do realize the Fed has 2 policy goals for which it was created. They are in conflict, one is to print money & lower rates until we get unemployment to 5% which is full employment. The other is to keep the dollar strong. Over the past 40 years since the dollar came off the gold standard, necessary nonrenewable commodities have risen 8% per year against the US dollar. I see no reason for Fed to not at least maintain that level of inflation. I believe they will increase the inflation going foreword to split the difference in their 2 goals. They will create just enough inflation to keep unemployment heading down & keep the dollar in slow decline. That mean above 8% per year in nonrenewable commodities likely 12% annual inflation until 2013.
> 
> You are the one who is repeating crap & have been repeating crap all year. The only bubble is the US dollar. Google define market bubble. You will see that it describes US dollar, unfunded mandates & bonds exactly. You are a victim of group think. We just witnessed Republicans & Democrats extend entitlement spending & tax cuts. The increased US government bond sales has driven up bonds, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly.
Click to expand...


Don't confuse the Rabbi with fundamentals.  He's got all the info he needs based on radio ads.


----------



## KissMy

Toro said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> This has absolutely all the makings of a bubble, just like real estate and stocks. The radio ads touting gold, the buyers advertising for it.  The new highs weekly.
> When interest rates rise (and they are already going up) this will fall like a gold balloon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I agree with you.  One day this will become a bubble.  And one day it will collapse violently.  But we're not even close to that IMHO, nor to where the tech and housing bubbles were.
> 
> I also agree that rising rates is what will kill the precious metals bubble.  However, gold and silver both rose from 2003 through 2007 when the Fed funds rate rose from 1% to 5.25%.  Also, if you look at when gold last peaked in 1980, it quadrupled even though the long bond yield rose from 8% to 11%.
> 
> So IMHO there is still some ways to go.
Click to expand...


Exactly - Interest will have to rise above the true nonrenewable commodity inflation rates before confidence in the dollar can be restored. Over the past 40 years farm land, fertilizer, crude oil, coal, copper, silver, water, energy, etc have risen 8% annually. Try living without any of those. Anyone who buys bonds for less than 8% is a fool. Pension funds were promising 8% returns so governments & business underfunded them by at least that much for all this time. Just wait when people start cashing in on them.


----------



## KissMy

OPEC Members Seek $100 Oil to Counter Dollar Weakness


> The 13 percent decline in the Dollar Index since June has led some OPEC members to call for oil to rise to $100 a barrel.
> 
> The U.S. currency&#8217;s weakness means the &#8220;real price&#8221; of oil is about $20 less than current levels, Venezuelan Energy and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said after yesterday&#8217;s meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna. The group, which accounts for 40 percent of global crude output, left targets unchanged and called for greater adherence to quotas, which are being exceeded by a supertanker load a day.
> 
> &#8220;OPEC is not interested in compliance right now,&#8221; Nordine Ait-Laoussine, the former Algerian oil minister who now runs Geneva-based consultant Nalcosa SA, said in an interview in Vienna. &#8220;They&#8217;re concerned about the dollar because as the dollar weakens, prices go up. They&#8217;re not paying any attention to production discipline.&#8221;


----------



## The Rabbi

KissMy said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> That is funny. Do you really think Bernanke will ever let the interest rate rise? He has already signaled QE3 to drive them down further to drive employment yet employment is still in decline along with housing.
> 
> The total amount of gold in the world that is above ground is 4,501,104,720ozt. To visualize this imagine a single solid gold cube with edges of about 19 meters (about three meters short of the length of a tennis court). That's all that has ever been produced. Divided among the population of the world there are about 0.61658ozt per person, about 1.2 cubic centimeters each. At $1,400 per ozt this equates to about $863.23 worth per person on Earth.
> 
> The size of the US debt is $13.86 Trillion. Divide that by the world gold supply equals $3,079.24 per ozt. Now how much world debt is there? How many $Trillion of bonds are in the world. How much world paper currency is there? The US alone has over $111 Trillion in unfunded mandates. How many $Trillion worth of unfunded pensions are there? There are also over $600 Trillion worth of derivatives out there. About 20% of the world's gold was held by central banks before the crisis at which time over 80% of the worlds gold was in private hands. Of that 20% previously held by central banks of the world, only a small percent was held by the US central bank/Federal Reserve. Even with all the ads out that promise cash for gold, people still are not willing to part with their gold.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bernanke has no power over long term rates, which have been rising both here and abroad.
> Most of the rest of what you write is crap, mainly repeating things hawked by gold sellers.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> You are the one repeating crap you hear on CNBC. For 2 years now their old bald head experts have been saying interest rates will rise & the Fed will let them rise. They were wrong & rates have been going down. You do realize the Fed has 2 policy goals for which it was created. They are in conflict, one is to print money & lower rates until we get unemployment to 5% which is full employment. The other is to keep the dollar strong. Over the past 40 years since the dollar came off the gold standard, necessary nonrenewable commodities have risen 8% per year against the US dollar. I see no reason for Fed to not at least maintain that level of inflation. I believe they will increase the inflation going foreword to split the difference in their 2 goals. They will create just enough inflation to keep unemployment heading down & keep the dollar in slow decline. That mean above 8% per year in nonrenewable commodities likely 12% annual inflation until 2013.
> 
> You are the one who is repeating crap & have been repeating crap all year. The only bubble is the US dollar. Google define market bubble. You will see that it describes US dollar, unfunded mandates & bonds exactly. You are a victim of group think. We just witnessed Republicans & Democrats extend entitlement spending & tax cuts. The increased US government bond sales has driven up bonds, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly.
Click to expand...

Newsflash: Rates have already started rising.


----------



## KissMy

The Rabbi said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> Bernanke has no power over long term rates, which have been rising both here and abroad.
> Most of the rest of what you write is crap, mainly repeating things hawked by gold sellers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You are the one repeating crap you hear on CNBC. For 2 years now their old bald head experts have been saying interest rates will rise & the Fed will let them rise. They were wrong & rates have been going down. You do realize the Fed has 2 policy goals for which it was created. They are in conflict, one is to print money & lower rates until we get unemployment to 5% which is full employment. The other is to keep the dollar strong. Over the past 40 years since the dollar came off the gold standard, necessary nonrenewable commodities have risen 8% per year against the US dollar. I see no reason for Fed to not at least maintain that level of inflation. I believe they will increase the inflation going foreword to split the difference in their 2 goals. They will create just enough inflation to keep unemployment heading down & keep the dollar in slow decline. That mean above 8% per year in nonrenewable commodities likely 12% annual inflation until 2013.
> 
> You are the one who is repeating crap & have been repeating crap all year. The only bubble is the US dollar. Google define market bubble. You will see that it describes US dollar, unfunded mandates & bonds exactly. You are a victim of group think. We just witnessed Republicans & Democrats extend entitlement spending & tax cuts. The increased US government bond sales has driven up bonds, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Newsflash: Rates have already started rising.
Click to expand...


Wake me up when they go above 8%. As I said the massive government deficit spending spree has increased US government bond sales which has driven up bonds yields, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly & drive them back down. The government can't afford the interest on the debt if rates go to 8%. The Fed will never let that happen.


----------



## The Rabbi

Of course they don't have more money than the world-wide market.
But what-evah.  Go ahead.  Buy gold.  Buy all of it.


----------



## william the wie

Just a slight excursion back to the thread topic with the bond bear starting to growl it may be time to buy index puts and start shorting.


----------



## Toro

william the wie said:


> Just a slight excursion back to the thread topic with the bond bear starting to growl it may be time to buy index puts and start shorting.



Maybe.

I think, however, that we get a mild pullback then move higher into the end of the year.

Interest rates usually rise at the beginning of an expansion, as do stocks.  This is beginning to look like typical behavior at the beginning of an economic expansion.


----------



## william the wie

Toro said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> 
> Just a slight excursion back to the thread topic with the bond bear starting to growl it may be time to buy index puts and start shorting.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Maybe.
> 
> I think, however, that we get a mild pullback then move higher into the end of the year.
> 
> Interest rates usually rise at the beginning of an expansion, as do stocks.  This is beginning to look like typical behavior at the beginning of an economic expansion.
Click to expand...

With straddles I'm covered both ways.


----------



## KissMy

The Rabbi said:


> Newsflash: Rates have already started rising.



Credit Default Swap Spreads..5 U.S. States Make The Top Ten List

This tells us that the rise in bond prices is not due to an expanding economy but due to fear of default on bonds.


----------



## The Rabbi

KissMy said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> Newsflash: Rates have already started rising.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Credit Default Swap Spreads..5 U.S. States Make The Top Ten List
> 
> This tells us that the rise in bond prices is not due to an expanding economy but due to fear of default on bonds.
Click to expand...


Go buy more gold.  Sink your life savings in it.  Better hurray. It's all coming down!


----------



## Terral

Hi Zander:



Zander said:


> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!



You could buy one share of the entire S&P stock market for five ounces of gold in 2000, but today the same stocks are valued at LESS than a single ounce of gold! And only 'now' you want to short the stock markets? 

Anyone playing the stock market ponzi scheme is an idiot. Your money should have been in gold at $300.00 in 2000 and you would be miles ahead today ...

GL,

Terral


----------



## FireFly

KissMy said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> Newsflash: Rates have already started rising.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Credit Default Swap Spreads..5 U.S. States Make The Top Ten List
> 
> This tells us that the rise in bond prices is not due to an expanding economy but due to fear of default on bonds.
Click to expand...


You are correct as usual KissMy. "The most recently available data from the Investment Company Institute shows that investors withdrew over $1 billion from municipal bond mutual funds for the week of December 8a trend that has persisted for over a month." Thanks to research by Meredith Whitney on muni, city, state & fed bonds that was aired on 60 minutes 12-19-2012.

Bond rates have climbed every since Meredith Whitney released her report titled "Tragedy of the Commons" a couple of months ago. The talking heads & government have been trying to spin the rise in rates as a sign of an improving market economy. Nothing could be further from the truth.


----------



## william the wie

Yeah IL is definitely toast and there is a long list of probables


----------



## FireFly

william the wie said:


> Yeah IL is definitely toast and there is a long list of probables



The Obama administration is trashing the USA the same way they did in IL.

We need to get rid of government funded or backed pension funds before they destroy the country.


----------



## Toro

Market is in melt-up mode.

Lots of worrisome indicators though.


----------



## william the wie

Toro said:


> Market is in melt-up mode.
> 
> Lots of worrisome indicators though.


well if I can lock in a straddle at 135 12/11 xsp or better yet 145 I will be happy.


----------



## Zander

John Hussman says....



> In recent weeks, the U.S. stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome that has historically been hostile to stocks. Last week, the situation became much more pointed. Past instances have been associated with such uniformly negative outcomes that the current situation has to be accompanied by the word warning.
> 
> The following set of conditions is one way to capture the basic overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome:
> 
> 1) S&P 500 more than 8% above its 52 week (exponential) average
> 2) S&P 500 more than 50% above its 4-year low
> 3) Shiller P/E greater than 18
> 4) 10-year Treasury yield higher than 6 months earlier
> 5) Advisory bullishness > 47%, with bearishness < 27% ( Investor's Intelligence)



Balance of article here


----------



## Toro

I read Hussman weekly.  I like this graph here.







But that doesn't necessarily mean its a good time to go short.


----------



## Zander

Toro said:


> I read Hussman weekly.  I like this graph here.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> But that doesn't necessarily mean its a good time to go short.



Market timing is tough. We both know that the market can remain irrational far longer than we can remain liquid...


I am thinking of buying a coin operated laundry......


----------



## william the wie

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> I read Hussman weekly.  I like this graph here.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> But that doesn't necessarily mean its a good time to go short.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Market timing is tough. We both know that the market can remain irrational far longer than we can remain liquid...
> 
> 
> I am thinking of buying a coin operated laundry......
Click to expand...

I understand that that is a real pain in the butt. Too much competition and too much expensive capital being rented out to idiots by the hour.


----------



## miller

Who's irrational?  Screwed Again


----------



## finebead

Zander said:


> John Hussman says....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In recent weeks, the U.S. stock market has been characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome that has historically been hostile to stocks. Last week, the situation became much more pointed. Past instances have been associated with such uniformly negative outcomes that the current situation has to be accompanied by the word warning.
> 
> The following set of conditions is one way to capture the basic overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndrome:
> 
> 1) S&P 500 more than 8% above its 52 week (exponential) average
> 2) S&P 500 more than 50% above its 4-year low
> 3) Shiller P/E greater than 18
> 4) 10-year Treasury yield higher than 6 months earlier
> 5) Advisory bullishness > 47%, with bearishness < 27% ( Investor's Intelligence)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Balance of article here
Click to expand...


Doc Hussman is a bright guy, but he has not been a great investor the last decade, he has been too bearish and out of the market (hedged in his terminology) for too much of the time.  I had money with him for about 5 years, and then I figured out I was ahead of his return, what was I paying him for?  Took my money out, never looked back.

We are in a bull market, have been since March '09.  Fed is providing liquidity with low rates and quantitative easing, congress has provided 800 billion stimulus.  You want to stand in front of that?  Last hundred years, that's been a bad bet.  Recover is real slow.  Key word is "recovery".  In the next year, we may have a 10% correction, but I'm betting market is up in a year.  Then again, the bull market is almost 2 years old...

Is there trouble still out there?  Yep.  Banking.  Banks hold too many houses not paying the note, either in foreclosure, or ought to be.  Banks are not required to "mark to market" anymore.  I don't know what they have on their balance sheets, nor what it's value is, so I won't buy a bank stock until I do know.  If this trouble re-emerges (when?), it could negatively impact the whole economy just like it did in late 07 and 08.  That's the problem, a potential disaster lying dormant.  

I want a lot of money in the market, prefer dividend paying stocks or just buy DVY, an ETF of big dividend paying stocks that will give you easy diversification.  Put a trailing stop under it, maybe 6% or what you are comfortable with.  If the correction turns out to be 15% or 20%, it would look like a good move.

I think there is big trouble out there, but not this year, too much govt. support for the market this year.  Wait until that goes away and we have to walk on our own.

But, that's just me.  A worried bull right now.


----------



## FireFly

Follow The Money​
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqPsnDEvun0"]TRIM TABS: "RETAIL INVESTORS ARE NOT COMING BACK TO U.S."[/ame]


----------



## william the wie

So the second the QE II target changes or QE ends the stock market is going to crash? Seems reasonable but unproven.


----------



## The Rabbi

KissMy said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> That is funny. Do you really think Bernanke will ever let the interest rate rise? He has already signaled QE3 to drive them down further to drive employment yet employment is still in decline along with housing.
> 
> The total amount of gold in the world that is above ground is 4,501,104,720ozt. To visualize this imagine a single solid gold cube with edges of about 19 meters (about three meters short of the length of a tennis court). That's all that has ever been produced. Divided among the population of the world there are about 0.61658ozt per person, about 1.2 cubic centimeters each. At $1,400 per ozt this equates to about $863.23 worth per person on Earth.
> 
> The size of the US debt is $13.86 Trillion. Divide that by the world gold supply equals $3,079.24 per ozt. Now how much world debt is there? How many $Trillion of bonds are in the world. How much world paper currency is there? The US alone has over $111 Trillion in unfunded mandates. How many $Trillion worth of unfunded pensions are there? There are also over $600 Trillion worth of derivatives out there. About 20% of the world's gold was held by central banks before the crisis at which time over 80% of the worlds gold was in private hands. Of that 20% previously held by central banks of the world, only a small percent was held by the US central bank/Federal Reserve. Even with all the ads out that promise cash for gold, people still are not willing to part with their gold.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bernanke has no power over long term rates, which have been rising both here and abroad.
> Most of the rest of what you write is crap, mainly repeating things hawked by gold sellers.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> You are the one repeating crap you hear on CNBC. For 2 years now their old bald head experts have been saying interest rates will rise & the Fed will let them rise. They were wrong & rates have been going down. You do realize the Fed has 2 policy goals for which it was created. They are in conflict, one is to print money & lower rates until we get unemployment to 5% which is full employment. The other is to keep the dollar strong. Over the past 40 years since the dollar came off the gold standard, necessary nonrenewable commodities have risen 8% per year against the US dollar. I see no reason for Fed to not at least maintain that level of inflation. I believe they will increase the inflation going foreword to split the difference in their 2 goals. They will create just enough inflation to keep unemployment heading down & keep the dollar in slow decline. That mean above 8% per year in nonrenewable commodities likely 12% annual inflation until 2013.
> 
> You are the one who is repeating crap & have been repeating crap all year. The only bubble is the US dollar. Google define market bubble. You will see that it describes US dollar, unfunded mandates & bonds exactly. You are a victim of group think. We just witnessed Republicans & Democrats extend entitlement spending & tax cuts. The increased US government bond sales has driven up bonds, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly.
Click to expand...


Gold price 12/14/10-$1396
Gold price 1/6/11-1358.
This masks the trend in gold prices, which is down.  Gold has been down the last 3 sessions.  This will continue.
Hope you sank your life savings in the metal!


----------



## Toro

The Rabbi said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> Bernanke has no power over long term rates, which have been rising both here and abroad.
> Most of the rest of what you write is crap, mainly repeating things hawked by gold sellers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You are the one repeating crap you hear on CNBC. For 2 years now their old bald head experts have been saying interest rates will rise & the Fed will let them rise. They were wrong & rates have been going down. You do realize the Fed has 2 policy goals for which it was created. They are in conflict, one is to print money & lower rates until we get unemployment to 5% which is full employment. The other is to keep the dollar strong. Over the past 40 years since the dollar came off the gold standard, necessary nonrenewable commodities have risen 8% per year against the US dollar. I see no reason for Fed to not at least maintain that level of inflation. I believe they will increase the inflation going foreword to split the difference in their 2 goals. They will create just enough inflation to keep unemployment heading down & keep the dollar in slow decline. That mean above 8% per year in nonrenewable commodities likely 12% annual inflation until 2013.
> 
> You are the one who is repeating crap & have been repeating crap all year. The only bubble is the US dollar. Google define market bubble. You will see that it describes US dollar, unfunded mandates & bonds exactly. You are a victim of group think. We just witnessed Republicans & Democrats extend entitlement spending & tax cuts. The increased US government bond sales has driven up bonds, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Gold price 12/14/10-$1396
> Gold price 1/6/11-1358.
> This masks the trend in gold prices, which is down.  Gold has been down the last 3 sessions.  This will continue.
> Hope you sank your life savings in the metal!
Click to expand...


I think there could be a serious correction in the precious metals here.

However, that doesn't necessarily mean the gold and silver bull market is over.  The last bull market in stocks saw the greatest one day decline since The Depression, and that turned out to be  a blip in the long-term trend.

Maybe the bull market is over in precious metals, I don't know.  They've run awfully far over the past decade.  But it doesn't look like a typical end to a bull market, at least so far.  Doesn't mean gold can't fall back to $1100 or silver to $22 though.


----------



## editec

I doubt that the RE problems can tank the whole market.

First of all, because they are known problems (unlike what happened in '08),

Secondly, it wasn't entirely the RE market than tanked the market back in '08.

I think it was derivatives piled on top of derivatives that really screwed the pooch.

I think gold and silver are both topped for a while.


----------



## The Rabbi

Toro said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> You are the one repeating crap you hear on CNBC. For 2 years now their old bald head experts have been saying interest rates will rise & the Fed will let them rise. They were wrong & rates have been going down. You do realize the Fed has 2 policy goals for which it was created. They are in conflict, one is to print money & lower rates until we get unemployment to 5% which is full employment. The other is to keep the dollar strong. Over the past 40 years since the dollar came off the gold standard, necessary nonrenewable commodities have risen 8% per year against the US dollar. I see no reason for Fed to not at least maintain that level of inflation. I believe they will increase the inflation going foreword to split the difference in their 2 goals. They will create just enough inflation to keep unemployment heading down & keep the dollar in slow decline. That mean above 8% per year in nonrenewable commodities likely 12% annual inflation until 2013.
> 
> You are the one who is repeating crap & have been repeating crap all year. The only bubble is the US dollar. Google define market bubble. You will see that it describes US dollar, unfunded mandates & bonds exactly. You are a victim of group think. We just witnessed Republicans & Democrats extend entitlement spending & tax cuts. The increased US government bond sales has driven up bonds, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold price 12/14/10-$1396
> Gold price 1/6/11-1358.
> This masks the trend in gold prices, which is down.  Gold has been down the last 3 sessions.  This will continue.
> Hope you sank your life savings in the metal!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I think there could be a serious correction in the precious metals here.
> 
> However, that doesn't necessarily mean the gold and silver bull market is over.  The last bull market in stocks saw the greatest one day decline since The Depression, and that turned out to be  a blip in the long-term trend.
> 
> Maybe the bull market is over in precious metals, I don't know.  They've run awfully far over the past decade.  But it doesn't look like a typical end to a bull market, at least so far.  Doesn't mean gold can't fall back to $1100 or silver to $22 though.
Click to expand...


Markets are driven by greed and fear.  The end of the bull was marked by greed, everyone trying to get in on the action.
Now we're going to see the fear as no one wants to be holding this stuff.


----------



## Toro

Generally bull markets end when monetary conditions are tight, not loose at the beginning of a tightening. Maybe it's different this time, I don't know. I am short silver here for a trade. But this isn't what tops usually look like.


----------



## The Rabbi

Toro said:


> Generally bull markets end when monetary conditions are tight, not loose at the beginning of a tightening. Maybe it's different this time, I don't know. I am short silver here for a trade. But this isn't what tops usually look like.



So what do they look like?


----------



## FireFly

The Rabbi said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> Bernanke has no power over long term rates, which have been rising both here and abroad.
> Most of the rest of what you write is crap, mainly repeating things hawked by gold sellers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You are the one repeating crap you hear on CNBC. For 2 years now their old bald head experts have been saying interest rates will rise & the Fed will let them rise. They were wrong & rates have been going down. You do realize the Fed has 2 policy goals for which it was created. They are in conflict, one is to print money & lower rates until we get unemployment to 5% which is full employment. The other is to keep the dollar strong. Over the past 40 years since the dollar came off the gold standard, necessary nonrenewable commodities have risen 8% per year against the US dollar. I see no reason for Fed to not at least maintain that level of inflation. I believe they will increase the inflation going foreword to split the difference in their 2 goals. They will create just enough inflation to keep unemployment heading down & keep the dollar in slow decline. That mean above 8% per year in nonrenewable commodities likely 12% annual inflation until 2013.
> 
> You are the one who is repeating crap & have been repeating crap all year. The only bubble is the US dollar. Google define market bubble. You will see that it describes US dollar, unfunded mandates & bonds exactly. You are a victim of group think. We just witnessed Republicans & Democrats extend entitlement spending & tax cuts. The increased US government bond sales has driven up bonds, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Gold price 12/14/10-$1396
> Gold price 1/6/11-1358.
> This masks the trend in gold prices, which is down.  Gold has been down the last 3 sessions.  This will continue.
> Hope you sank your life savings in the metal!
Click to expand...


Rabbi should have bought gold this morning instead of posting this nonsense. Gold rose $25 from it's morning lows where I bought it today. The workforce has shrunk dramatically in recent months even as our population increases. Jobs numbers were dismal & that is bad for the dollar. Unless you have been under a rock you may have notices the national debt increased $200 billion in the past month. That rate of debt creation is 38% faster than previous months & we are still loosing jobs. Maybe you should go crawl back under that rock.


----------



## Zander

They are always different, that is why they are unpredictable. If they always "looked" a certain way they would be predictable. ......I think that is why Toro used the word "generally".


----------



## The Rabbi

FireFly said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> You are the one repeating crap you hear on CNBC. For 2 years now their old bald head experts have been saying interest rates will rise & the Fed will let them rise. They were wrong & rates have been going down. You do realize the Fed has 2 policy goals for which it was created. They are in conflict, one is to print money & lower rates until we get unemployment to 5% which is full employment. The other is to keep the dollar strong. Over the past 40 years since the dollar came off the gold standard, necessary nonrenewable commodities have risen 8% per year against the US dollar. I see no reason for Fed to not at least maintain that level of inflation. I believe they will increase the inflation going foreword to split the difference in their 2 goals. They will create just enough inflation to keep unemployment heading down & keep the dollar in slow decline. That mean above 8% per year in nonrenewable commodities likely 12% annual inflation until 2013.
> 
> You are the one who is repeating crap & have been repeating crap all year. The only bubble is the US dollar. Google define market bubble. You will see that it describes US dollar, unfunded mandates & bonds exactly. You are a victim of group think. We just witnessed Republicans & Democrats extend entitlement spending & tax cuts. The increased US government bond sales has driven up bonds, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold price 12/14/10-$1396
> Gold price 1/6/11-1358.
> This masks the trend in gold prices, which is down.  Gold has been down the last 3 sessions.  This will continue.
> Hope you sank your life savings in the metal!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Rabbi should have bought gold this morning instead of posting this nonsense. Gold rose $25 from it's morning lows where I bought it today. The workforce has shrunk dramatically in recent months even as our population increases. Jobs numbers were dismal & that is bad for the dollar. Unless you have been under a rock you may have notices the national debt increased $200 billion in the past month. That rate of debt creation is 38% faster than previous months & we are still loosing jobs. Maybe you should go crawl back under that rock.
Click to expand...


Down 1.30 on the day.  GLD down as well.  This marks the 4th straight down day for gold and GLD.
Now go sink your life savings into gold, you gold bug.


----------



## The Rabbi

Zander said:


> They are always different, that is why they are unpredictable. If they always "looked" a certain way they would be predictable. ......I think that is why Toro used the word "generally".



If they're always different then by definition there cannot be a "general way" they look.
Bull markets end not with a bang but a whimper.  But the increased volatility we've seen and the downward movement, coupled with fundamentals tells me the boy is going down big time.


----------



## Toro

The Rabbi said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Generally bull markets end when monetary conditions are tight, not loose at the beginning of a tightening. Maybe it's different this time, I don't know. I am short silver here for a trade. But this isn't what tops usually look like.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So what do they look like?
Click to expand...


I think we are at a near-term top, but you could be right.  This could be THE top.

Usually tops occur when monetary conditions are tight, there has been an explosive move upwards followed by a period of consolidation, i.e. sideways movement, then a plunge.

There was an explosive move in silver but not in gold.  The other two conditions do not exist.

Also, the public is usually all in.  But very few people actually own gold, including professional investors.  But maybe that doesn't matter this time.


----------



## Zander

The Rabbi said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> They are always different, that is why they are unpredictable. If they always "looked" a certain way they would be predictable. ......I think that is why Toro used the word "generally".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If they're always different then by definition there cannot be a "general way" they look.
> Bull markets end not with a bang but a whimper.  But the increased volatility we've seen and the downward movement, coupled with fundamentals tells me the boy is going down big time.
Click to expand...


 I agree the market should go down, but that doesn't mean squat. Markets are irrational. I won't be surprised if it goes higher first.....


----------



## Paulie

The Fed has created unprecedented amounts of new money, and have still hinted at even MORE quantitative easing.  And many other central banks around the world have had similar policy.  Why SHOULDN'T metals continue higher?


----------



## Toro

Paulie said:


> The Fed has created unprecedented amounts of new money, and have still hinted at even MORE quantitative easing.  And many other central banks around the world have had similar policy.  Why SHOULDN'T metals continue higher?



The bear case on the precious metals would be that with the economy getting better, interest rates will rise and there will be less fear, which are bearish for the PMs.  I think there is at least some truth to this.  I think the economy is improving.

Also, the technicals on the PMs are breaking down.


----------



## Zander

Paulie said:


> The Fed has created unprecedented amounts of new money, and have still hinted at even MORE quantitative easing.  And many other central banks around the world have had similar policy.  Why SHOULDN'T metals continue higher?



Because markets have nothing to with "fundamentals" or other nonsense like reality.


----------



## william the wie

Zander said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> The Fed has created unprecedented amounts of new money, and have still hinted at even MORE quantitative easing.  And many other central banks around the world have had similar policy.  Why SHOULDN'T metals continue higher?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Because markets have nothing to with "fundamentals" or other nonsense like reality.
Click to expand...

QFT


----------



## The Rabbi

Paulie said:


> The Fed has created unprecedented amounts of new money, and have still hinted at even MORE quantitative easing.  And many other central banks around the world have had similar policy.  Why SHOULDN'T metals continue higher?



Any bets on gold going higher are predicated on this exact scenario.  If ANYTHING happens differently it will collapse.
And of course it will happen differently because that's the nature of the universe.
I dont know whether we've reached teh absolute top or not.  I don't care.  I do know that gold will be much much lower a year from now.


----------



## Paulie

Toro said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> The Fed has created unprecedented amounts of new money, and have still hinted at even MORE quantitative easing.  And many other central banks around the world have had similar policy.  Why SHOULDN'T metals continue higher?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The bear case on the precious metals would be that with the economy getting better, interest rates will rise and there will be less fear, which are bearish for the PMs.  I think there is at least some truth to this.  I think the economy is improving.
> 
> Also, the technicals on the PMs are breaking down.
Click to expand...


You know damn well the Fed has no ability to bring rates up right now.  

They have to extinguish about a trillion dollars to even make a dent in the Fed Funds rate.


----------



## Toro

Paulie said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> The Fed has created unprecedented amounts of new money, and have still hinted at even MORE quantitative easing.  And many other central banks around the world have had similar policy.  Why SHOULDN'T metals continue higher?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The bear case on the precious metals would be that with the economy getting better, interest rates will rise and there will be less fear, which are bearish for the PMs.  I think there is at least some truth to this.  I think the economy is improving.
> 
> Also, the technicals on the PMs are breaking down.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> You know damn well the Fed has no ability to bring rates up right now.
> 
> They have to extinguish about a trillion dollars to even make a dent in the Fed Funds rate.
Click to expand...


I don't expect the Fed to raise rates anytime soon.  I have no idea when they will.  The big test will come in June when QE2 ends.  What will the Fed do then?  If the economy is on the mend, that's it.  But will there be QE3 in the Fall if the economy falls off the cliff?  I don't know.  This is why I'm skeptical the bull market in precious metals is ending now.

However, interest rates further out the curve have been rising hard.  Coupled with generally better economic data, it appears the economy is starting to improve.  In that environment, gold and silver could do poorly.  

And perhaps most importantly, the technicals for gold and silver are breaking down, at least in the short term.  The market is talking, and it is signaling weakness ahead.


----------



## The Rabbi

Paulie said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> The Fed has created unprecedented amounts of new money, and have still hinted at even MORE quantitative easing.  And many other central banks around the world have had similar policy.  Why SHOULDN'T metals continue higher?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The bear case on the precious metals would be that with the economy getting better, interest rates will rise and there will be less fear, which are bearish for the PMs.  I think there is at least some truth to this.  I think the economy is improving.
> 
> Also, the technicals on the PMs are breaking down.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> You know damn well the Fed has no ability to bring rates up right now.
> 
> They have to extinguish about a trillion dollars to even make a dent in the Fed Funds rate.
Click to expand...


They absolutely do.  They could announce any number of steps short of raising rates as well.  This is almost certain as central banks elsewhere are working on tightening.  China has been doing so for some time.
Any move to tighten credit by the Fed will cause gold to tumble.  And it is almost a certainty they will.


----------



## Toro

The Rabbi said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> The bear case on the precious metals would be that with the economy getting better, interest rates will rise and there will be less fear, which are bearish for the PMs.  I think there is at least some truth to this.  I think the economy is improving.
> 
> Also, the technicals on the PMs are breaking down.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You know damn well the Fed has no ability to bring rates up right now.
> 
> They have to extinguish about a trillion dollars to even make a dent in the Fed Funds rate.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> They absolutely do.  They could announce any number of steps short of raising rates as well.  This is almost certain as central banks elsewhere are working on tightening.  China has been doing so for some time.
> Any move to tighten credit by the Fed will cause gold to tumble.  And it is almost a certainty they will.
Click to expand...


The caveat is that when the Fed tightened in the last cycle from 1% to 5.25%, gold doubled.  

However, gold wasn't $1400 either.  

At some point, tight interest rates will ultimately kill the precious metals bull market.  I imagine that when it is all said and done, gold will fall by 70%+ and silver more so from their peaks.


----------



## The Rabbi

Toro said:


> [
> 
> The caveat is that when the Fed tightened in the last cycle from 1% to 5.25%, gold doubled.
> 
> However, gold wasn't $1400 either.
> 
> At some point, tight interest rates will ultimately kill the precious metals bull market.  I imagine that when it is all said and done, gold will fall by 70%+ and silver more so from their peaks.



Gold competes with every investment on the planet.  It has done well precisely because all the other ones sucked.  With recovering economies and interest rates above zero gold won't look too good.  I don't know about 70% but some large percentage is certain.


----------



## Paulie

The Rabbi said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> The bear case on the precious metals would be that with the economy getting better, interest rates will rise and there will be less fear, which are bearish for the PMs.  I think there is at least some truth to this.  I think the economy is improving.
> 
> Also, the technicals on the PMs are breaking down.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You know damn well the Fed has no ability to bring rates up right now.
> 
> They have to extinguish about a trillion dollars to even make a dent in the Fed Funds rate.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> They absolutely do.  They could announce any number of steps short of raising rates as well.  This is almost certain as central banks elsewhere are working on tightening.  China has been doing so for some time.
> Any move to tighten credit by the Fed will cause gold to tumble.  And it is almost a certainty they will.
Click to expand...


What policy tool does the Fed have to raise the Fed Funds rate with any significance?  Considering they'd have to sell about a trillion dollars worth of assets to drain enough bank reserves to bring the fed funds rate up from where it's at, which they obviously can not do right now, what else do they really have at their disposal to raise the rate?

The answer to that question is NOTHING.  And that's why metals continue higher.


----------



## The Rabbi

Paulie said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> You know damn well the Fed has no ability to bring rates up right now.
> 
> They have to extinguish about a trillion dollars to even make a dent in the Fed Funds rate.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They absolutely do.  They could announce any number of steps short of raising rates as well.  This is almost certain as central banks elsewhere are working on tightening.  China has been doing so for some time.
> Any move to tighten credit by the Fed will cause gold to tumble.  And it is almost a certainty they will.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> What policy tool does the Fed have to raise the Fed Funds rate with any significance?  Considering they'd have to sell about a trillion dollars worth of assets to drain enough bank reserves to bring the fed funds rate up from where it's at, which they obviously can not do right now, what else do they really have at their disposal to raise the rate?
> 
> The answer to that question is NOTHING.  And that's why metals continue higher.
Click to expand...


You're cute when you're ignorant.


----------



## The Rabbi

The Rabbi said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> Bernanke has no power over long term rates, which have been rising both here and abroad.
> Most of the rest of what you write is crap, mainly repeating things hawked by gold sellers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You are the one repeating crap you hear on CNBC. For 2 years now their old bald head experts have been saying interest rates will rise & the Fed will let them rise. They were wrong & rates have been going down. You do realize the Fed has 2 policy goals for which it was created. They are in conflict, one is to print money & lower rates until we get unemployment to 5% which is full employment. The other is to keep the dollar strong. Over the past 40 years since the dollar came off the gold standard, necessary nonrenewable commodities have risen 8% per year against the US dollar. I see no reason for Fed to not at least maintain that level of inflation. I believe they will increase the inflation going foreword to split the difference in their 2 goals. They will create just enough inflation to keep unemployment heading down & keep the dollar in slow decline. That mean above 8% per year in nonrenewable commodities likely 12% annual inflation until 2013.
> 
> You are the one who is repeating crap & have been repeating crap all year. The only bubble is the US dollar. Google define market bubble. You will see that it describes US dollar, unfunded mandates & bonds exactly. You are a victim of group think. We just witnessed Republicans & Democrats extend entitlement spending & tax cuts. The increased US government bond sales has driven up bonds, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Gold price 12/14/10-$1396
> Gold price 1/6/11-1358.
> This masks the trend in gold prices, which is down.  Gold has been down the last 3 sessions.  This will continue.
> Hope you sank your life savings in the metal!
Click to expand...


Gold 1/20-$1349.
Time to buy more!


----------



## editec

Toro said:


> Generally bull markets end when monetary conditions are tight, not loose at the beginning of a tightening. Maybe it's different this time, I don't know. I am short silver here for a trade. But this isn't what tops usually look like.


 
You know I agree, but thanks to generations of SUPPLY SIDE policies these are no longer normal times.

We keep pushing the supply side string and wondering why it isn't working.


----------



## The Rabbi

editec said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Generally bull markets end when monetary conditions are tight, not loose at the beginning of a tightening. Maybe it's different this time, I don't know. I am short silver here for a trade. But this isn't what tops usually look like.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You know I agree, but thanks to generations of SUPPLY SIDE policies these are no longer normal times.
> 
> We keep pushing the supply side string and wondering why it isn't working.
Click to expand...


Are you atill on this?  Is there some kind of drug you can take that will restore your sense of reality?  Do you even understand what you are talking about, or is "supply side" some kind of code for Republicanism? And how has Keynesian stimulus the last 2+ years worked out for you?


----------



## editec

The Rabbi said:


> editec said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> Generally bull markets end when monetary conditions are tight, not loose at the beginning of a tightening. Maybe it's different this time, I don't know. I am short silver here for a trade. But this isn't what tops usually look like.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You know I agree, but thanks to generations of SUPPLY SIDE policies these are no longer normal times.
> 
> We keep pushing the supply side string and wondering why it isn't working.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Are you atill on this? Is there some kind of drug you can take that will restore your sense of reality? Do you even understand what you are talking about, or is "supply side" some kind of code for Republicanism? And how has Keynesian stimulus the last 2+ years worked out for you?
Click to expand...

 

Well I can see that you object to my POV, but your arguments against it aren't very convincing.

Try harder.


----------



## The Rabbi

editec said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> editec said:
> 
> 
> 
> You know I agree, but thanks to generations of SUPPLY SIDE policies these are no longer normal times.
> 
> We keep pushing the supply side string and wondering why it isn't working.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Are you atill on this? Is there some kind of drug you can take that will restore your sense of reality? Do you even understand what you are talking about, or is "supply side" some kind of code for Republicanism? And how has Keynesian stimulus the last 2+ years worked out for you?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> Well I can see that you object to my POV, but your arguments against it aren't very convincing.
> 
> Try harder.
Click to expand...


Translation: You are correct and I am wrong but I can't admit it.

You are like an addict who has no problem.  Everything gets twisted to your pOV.
In fact there has not been much "supply side" economics practiced except for two instances in the last 30 years: under Reagan and under Bush's first term.  In both cases the results were astounding in their success.
By contrast Obama has practiced Keynesian economics and has resulted in the worst and longest recession in memory.


----------



## saveliberty

Short stocks?  You might also want to chuck government bonds too.  I see they are figuring out rules allowing states to file bankruptcy.


----------



## Toro

I think now may be a good time to short stocks, but just for a trade.

I might be wrong, though.


----------



## Zander

I believe we are due for a decline as well. Why? Corporate Earnings are back, consumer confidence is increasing, foreigners are buying lots of US real estate (believe it or not - Industrial cap rates are actually decreasing in core markets- there was a $10 billion deal closed in LA last week with over 40 bidders and a final cap rate of 6.5% for class A Industrial - there is a shit load of cash with no place to put it) , foreclosures have peaked, unemployment is steady....in short, everything is set up for the other shoe to drop.


----------



## william the wie

The question are:

Timing?

Locking in profits?

Letting profits run?

I agree that many other shoes will drop but domestic shoes will drive the market down while foreign shoes will drive the US market up. I will stick to leap straddles until something better comes along.


----------



## Zander

william the wie said:


> The question are:
> 
> Timing?
> 
> Locking in profits?
> 
> Letting profits run?
> 
> I agree that many other shoes will drop but domestic shoes will drive the market down while foreign shoes will drive the US market up. I will stick to leap straddles until something better comes along.



I am staying liquid, cutting costs, and investing in my business. I am buying used equipment from my now defunct competitors for literally 10 cents on the dollar. I recently upgraded our servers and software. On the business side of things, I am ready for the expansion to arrive. 

With my personal finances - I am paying down debt, including my mortgage and looking for another investment property. 

Overall, I am feeling very good about 2011 - just not for stock prices. I'll stay in t-bills and cash until the next bull market comes along.


----------



## saveliberty

I decided working the mortgage down was my best choice.


----------



## william the wie

saveliberty said:


> I decided working the mortgage down was my best choice.


Finished doing that in 1992 so that doesn't work for me but you will be amazed at how rich you become when you get out of debt.


----------



## The Rabbi

The Rabbi said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> You are the one repeating crap you hear on CNBC. For 2 years now their old bald head experts have been saying interest rates will rise & the Fed will let them rise. They were wrong & rates have been going down. You do realize the Fed has 2 policy goals for which it was created. They are in conflict, one is to print money & lower rates until we get unemployment to 5% which is full employment. The other is to keep the dollar strong. Over the past 40 years since the dollar came off the gold standard, necessary nonrenewable commodities have risen 8% per year against the US dollar. I see no reason for Fed to not at least maintain that level of inflation. I believe they will increase the inflation going foreword to split the difference in their 2 goals. They will create just enough inflation to keep unemployment heading down & keep the dollar in slow decline. That mean above 8% per year in nonrenewable commodities likely 12% annual inflation until 2013.
> 
> You are the one who is repeating crap & have been repeating crap all year. The only bubble is the US dollar. Google define market bubble. You will see that it describes US dollar, unfunded mandates & bonds exactly. You are a victim of group think. We just witnessed Republicans & Democrats extend entitlement spending & tax cuts. The increased US government bond sales has driven up bonds, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold price 12/14/10-$1396
> Gold price 1/6/11-1358.
> This masks the trend in gold prices, which is down.  Gold has been down the last 3 sessions.  This will continue.
> Hope you sank your life savings in the metal!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Gold 1/20-$1349.
> Time to buy more!
Click to expand...


Gold 1/24-$1333.  The trend is your friend.


----------



## finebead

I feel good about 2011, lot of govt. provided liquidity out there.  I expect a couple of 5-10% corrections this year, don't know when, nobody does.  We've been melting up slowly since sept., so a near term correction seems reasonable, which would be a buying opportunity IMO.  I like elec. utilities, pay good divy, stable business should benefit from a recovery.  I don't like banks, I don't know what's on their books and mark to market is no longer how they account, crap shoot if the other shoe drops.  I like big tech stocks with a decent divy, like Intel, seems corp america will have to buy new PC's to migrate to Win 7.  Technically, the S&P 500 is overbought short term, so I lightened up a bit today, sold off my biggest holding, hope to buy it back cheaper in the next 60 days.


----------



## KissMy

The Rabbi said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> Gold price 12/14/10-$1396
> Gold price 1/6/11-1358.
> This masks the trend in gold prices, which is down.  Gold has been down the last 3 sessions.  This will continue.
> Hope you sank your life savings in the metal!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold 1/20-$1349.
> Time to buy more!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Gold 1/24-$1333.  The trend is your friend.
Click to expand...


Sorry to disappoint you but I sold over 1/2 of my total Gold & silver holdings on the first 10 trading days of the new year. I have been on vacation for a month so I have not been on  USMB much at all.

In the month of December more silver was bought & sold than in the entire past year. Silver shot up 50% in the last 3 months of 2010. I figured there had to be a correction after this & the Republicans staging a spending blockade. The Republicans have the Gold & Silver market bluffed. I am waiting to see if any new spending gets past these guys.

On January 3rd I sold 1/3rd of my physical metals. I sold 32 of my 1ozt Gold coins at $1475.00 each & 175 of my 1ozt Silver for $32 each on January 3rd. I made $725 per ozt on each of those Gold coins & $17 per ozt on each of those Silver coins. I made over 100% tax free in the last 2 years on these coins.

I still have 65ozt of Gold coins left that I paid $715 each & 200ozt of silver that I paid $15 each. I will hold these to see what the SCOTUS decides on the pending muni default case & how many more defaults will happen by June first, whether Bernanke & the Fed announce a QEIII when QEII runs out or if there are any more Euro, State, or muni crisis by then. 

A week & a half ago I sold all of my SLV holdings at $28.92 for a nice profit & all of my GLD holdings at $135.51 on January 13th when Gold was $1375 for a loss of $2150 on that last GLD trade. I have made over 70% in the past year trading the GLD & SLV.

I am not yet shorting the GLD or SLV to hedge my remaining physical Gold & Silver in my safe. Seeing as the GLD & SLV do not hold value or keep up with Gold & Silver over time I would be better off keeping the rest of my physical coins & shorting those ETFs over the long run if I feel there will be a huge sell-off. But for the next 5 months I am going to sit on those physical coins & take my lumps while I wait & see what develops.


----------



## editec

ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, AS/_IF_ the market continues to recover and thrive, seems to me that investments in gold and silver will lose their luster.

Of course the  given -- "all other things being equal" -- isn't really something one can count on.

_All other things_ are never equal over time.


----------



## The Rabbi

KissMy said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> Gold 1/20-$1349.
> Time to buy more!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gold 1/24-$1333.  The trend is your friend.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Sorry to disappoint you but I sold over 1/2 of my total Gold & silver holdings on the first 10 trading days of the new year. I have been on vacation for a month so I have not been on  USMB much at all.
> 
> In the month of December more silver was bought & sold than in the entire past year. Silver shot up 50% in the last 3 months of 2010. I figured there had to be a correction after this & the Republicans staging a spending blockade. The Republicans have the Gold & Silver market bluffed. I am waiting to see if any new spending gets past these guys.
> 
> On January 3rd I sold 1/3rd of my physical metals. I sold 32 of my 1ozt Gold coins at $1475.00 each & 175 of my 1ozt Silver for $32 each on January 3rd. I made $725 per ozt on each of those Gold coins & $17 per ozt on each of those Silver coins. I made over 100% tax free in the last 2 years on these coins.
> 
> I still have 65ozt of Gold coins left that I paid $715 each & 200ozt of silver that I paid $15 each. I will hold these to see what the SCOTUS decides on the pending muni default case & how many more defaults will happen by June first, whether Bernanke & the Fed announce a QEIII when QEII runs out or if there are any more Euro, State, or muni crisis by then.
> 
> A week & a half ago I sold all of my SLV holdings at $28.92 for a nice profit & all of my GLD holdings at $135.51 on January 13th when Gold was $1375 for a loss of $2150 on that last GLD trade. I have made over 70% in the past year trading the GLD & SLV.
> 
> I am not yet shorting the GLD or SLV to hedge my remaining physical Gold & Silver in my safe. Seeing as the GLD & SLV do not hold value or keep up with Gold & Silver over time I would be better off keeping the rest of my physical coins & shorting those ETFs over the long run if I feel there will be a huge sell-off. But for the next 5 months I am going to sit on those physical coins & take my lumps while I wait & see what develops.
Click to expand...

Ye of course you did.  Investing in the rear view mirror is so much more rewarding.


----------



## KissMy

The Rabbi said:


> KissMy said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> Gold 1/24-$1333.  The trend is your friend.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry to disappoint you but I sold over 1/2 of my total Gold & silver holdings on the first 10 trading days of the new year. I have been on vacation for a month so I have not been on  USMB much at all.
> 
> In the month of December more silver was bought & sold than in the entire past year. Silver shot up 50% in the last 3 months of 2010. I figured there had to be a correction after this & the Republicans staging a spending blockade. The Republicans have the Gold & Silver market bluffed. I am waiting to see if any new spending gets past these guys.
> 
> On January 3rd I sold 1/3rd of my physical metals. I sold 32 of my 1ozt Gold coins at $1475.00 each & 175 of my 1ozt Silver for $32 each on January 3rd. I made $725 per ozt on each of those Gold coins & $17 per ozt on each of those Silver coins. I made over 100% tax free in the last 2 years on these coins.
> 
> I still have 65ozt of Gold coins left that I paid $715 each & 200ozt of silver that I paid $15 each. I will hold these to see what the SCOTUS decides on the pending muni default case & how many more defaults will happen by June first, whether Bernanke & the Fed announce a QEIII when QEII runs out or if there are any more Euro, State, or muni crisis by then.
> 
> A week & a half ago I sold all of my SLV holdings at $28.92 for a nice profit & all of my GLD holdings at $135.51 on January 13th when Gold was $1375 for a loss of $2150 on that last GLD trade. I have made over 70% in the past year trading the GLD & SLV.
> 
> I am not yet shorting the GLD or SLV to hedge my remaining physical Gold & Silver in my safe. Seeing as the GLD & SLV do not hold value or keep up with Gold & Silver over time I would be better off keeping the rest of my physical coins & shorting those ETFs over the long run if I feel there will be a huge sell-off. But for the next 5 months I am going to sit on those physical coins & take my lumps while I wait & see what develops.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Ye of course you did.  Investing in the rear view mirror is so much more rewarding.
Click to expand...


There is no rear view investing here bud. All my previous buy & sell dates were posted timely. Even today with gold dropping again I can still sell my gold coins for $1400 each. That is still a double from where I bought them.


----------



## The Rabbi

No you need to buy MORE.  THis is a cheap price.  It's going back UP UP UP!


----------



## KissMy

The Rabbi said:


> No you need to buy MORE.  THis is a cheap price.  It's going back UP UP UP!



Oh! don't worry. I may buy more depending on what happens. The stock market is running up on euphoria & getting a bit on the high side. Companies are missing earnings. Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, McDonalds, Best Buy, Verizon, AT&T all missed earnings. The Baltic Dry index is in a big nose dive so things are slowing down around the world.

I just need to wait for another massive dose of stimulus or another bail-out & I will be back in buying. The POTUS will be begging for another $Trillion worth of stimulus tonight at the STOTU speech tonight. I don't think he will get that past the house.

I can wait as long as it takes, but sooner or later those idiots will pop for some more money creation. I am not leveraged & have no mortgages or loans. All I have to do is buy food & pay taxes.

I am considering investing my Gold profits in & helping with the launch of a startup to convert big rig semi trucks to also burn CNG, LNG, Propane, Hydrogen while still being able to burn Dino-Diesel & Bio-Diesel. This conversion actually works great & will enable the current trucks to burn 6 different types of fuel saving big bucks for the trucking companies & drive down oil prices. This is part of the T.Boone Pickens Plan. It will decrease our fuel imports by using our abundant domestic supply of clean low carbon natural gas or (hydrogen if they ever get that cheap hydrogen production from wind turbines to work. not likely in the near term but a great sales pitch). It also may get some major government funding soon. Domestic gas drillers, enviro wackos, congress, POTUS & the EPA back this plan.


----------



## The Rabbi

Oh yeah!  Dump your money into T Boone Pickens' latest idea.  Do it!


----------



## KissMy

The Rabbi said:


> Oh yeah!  Dump your money into T Boone Pickens' latest idea.  Do it!



I am only going to invest if they can sell it to the trucking companies & have signed contracts. Unless they can convince the trucking industry or government to pay for this & use it then it will flop.


----------



## The Rabbi

KissMy said:


> The Rabbi said:
> 
> 
> 
> Oh yeah!  Dump your money into T Boone Pickens' latest idea.  Do it!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am only going to invest if they can sell it to the trucking companies & have signed contracts. Unless they can convince the trucking industry or government to pay for this & use it then it will flop.
Click to expand...


What a genius!
By that point the price will fully reflect the potential, and then some.


----------



## Zander

I am buying the long bond. Why?  Because I foresee slow economic growth at best in coming quarters and years and for the following reasons: 

1) the Fed is determined to further reduce interest rates - they couldn't be clearer.
2) Deflation is looming - housing pricing starts it's second leg downward
3) long Treasury bonds are attractive to pension funds and life insurers that want to match their long-term liabilities with similar maturity assets - they had to bring the long bond back after a few years hiatus. 
4) As the U.S. moves ever closer to the slow growth and deflation of Japan, the parallel trends in government bond yields seem likely to continue - look at the charts
5)  Treasurys are the safe haven in a sea of trouble in the Eurozone and elsewhere

I predict that 30-year Treasurys, &#8220;the Long Bond,&#8221; will rally from its current yield of about 4.4% to 3% with appreciation of around 25%.  I also expect the 10-year Treasury note yield to drop from the present 3.3% level to 2.0%. but the appreciation would be around 11% - Due to its shorter duration. 

I am long the long bond!!! WOOHOO!!!!

Best of luck.


----------



## Toro

I think anyone buying the 10 or 30 year Treasury bond with the intention of holding it to maturity risks getting slaughtered.  Best of luck to those who do.  It's return return-free risk!


I am now slightly net short after this afternoon after putting on some short positions, but the f****** longs bid the market up into the close.


----------



## Zander

Toro said:


> I think anyone buying the 10 or 30 year Treasury bond with the intention of holding it to maturity risks getting slaughtered.  Best of luck to those who do.  It's return return-free risk!
> 
> 
> I am now slightly net short after this afternoon after putting on some short positions, but the f****** longs bid the market up into the close.



I am not planning on holding to maturity.....


----------



## miller

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> I think anyone buying the 10 or 30 year Treasury bond with the intention of holding it to maturity risks getting slaughtered.  Best of luck to those who do.  It's return return-free risk!
> 
> 
> I am now slightly net short after this afternoon after putting on some short positions, but the f****** longs bid the market up into the close.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am not planning on holding to maturity.....
Click to expand...


Tea Baggers are racist nitwits and you were dead wrong on shorting the stock market and now you're dead wrong buying the long bond.  Did they repeal the law of supply and demand?


----------



## miller

I forgot, conservatives are traitors.  They should be deported out of America.


----------



## uscitizen

I find it funny that a "Time to short stocks" thread has been going on for a year or so.


----------



## Trajan

Zander said:


> I am buying the long bond. Why?  Because I foresee slow economic growth at best in coming quarters and years and for the following reasons:
> 
> 1) the Fed is determined to further reduce interest rates - they couldn't be clearer.
> 2) Deflation is looming - housing pricing starts it's second leg downward
> 3) long Treasury bonds are attractive to pension funds and life insurers that want to match their long-term liabilities with similar maturity assets - they had to bring the long bond back after a few years hiatus.
> 4) As the U.S. moves ever closer to the slow growth and deflation of Japan, the parallel trends in government bond yields seem likely to continue - look at the charts
> 5)  Treasurys are the safe haven in a sea of trouble in the Eurozone and elsewhere
> 
> I predict that 30-year Treasurys, &#8220;the Long Bond,&#8221; will rally from its current yield of about 4.4% to 3% with appreciation of around 25%.  I also expect the 10-year Treasury note yield to drop from the present 3.3% level to 2.0%. but the appreciation would be around 11% - Due to its shorter duration.
> 
> I am long the long bond!!! WOOHOO!!!!
> 
> Best of luck.



you might want to reconsider the deflation outlook zander.......I think they are right, though core inflation ( absent of course 2 huge mechanisms/commodities)  is moving slowly, at what cost?  I think the indicators are crystallizing for a run up. 


    * FEBRUARY 18, 2011

Deja Deflation Fear
whatever happened to falling prices?


Whatever happened to deflation? You'll remember only a few months ago the Federal Reserve used the fear of falling prices to justify its QE2 program of further monetary easing. Yesterday the government reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in January, the same rate as in December. The price index is up 1.6% in the last 12 months, but it is also accelerating&#8212;up 3.2% in the last six months and 3.9% at an annual rate in the past quarter. 

We are told by the Fed's allies not to worry because "core" inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose only 0.2% in January. This means, we are further assured, that companies are having a hard time passing their own rising wholesale costs onto consumers&#8212;which means there will be no broader inflation breakout.

snip-
Asked about all this at a recent House hearing, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said QE2 is a success because stock prices are rising. He blamed the increase in commodity prices on other things, such as growing world demand and the weather. Mr. Bernanke holds himself accountable only for the asset price increases that are popular.

If that answer sounds familiar, it is because Mr. Bernanke said the same thing in 2003 and 2004 when the Fed last fretted about deflation. Then the Fed also maintained a policy of negative real interest rates for years and blamed asset price spikes on everyone else. Once again the Fed seems to have worried about deflation long after the threat had passed and even as price pressures from its easier policy were preparing to build. Let's hope it turns out better than it did the last time. 

Review & Outlook: Deja Deflation Fear - WSJ.com


----------



## miller

uscitizen said:


> I find it funny that a "Time to short stocks" thread has been going on for a year or so.



When Zander decides to buy, that's when you short.  Zander's going to get ripped in his long Treasury.  If Bernanke isn't fired Treasuries will trade higher than 16%.  The high rate in 1981 was 15.5% and debt was only $1 trillion then.


----------



## miller

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> I think anyone buying the 10 or 30 year Treasury bond with the intention of holding it to maturity risks getting slaughtered.  Best of luck to those who do.  It's return return-free risk!
> 
> 
> I am now slightly net short after this afternoon after putting on some short positions, but the f****** longs bid the market up into the close.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am not planning on holding to maturity.....
Click to expand...


Bad news Zander.  The dollar will crash, inflation will skyrocket, and Bernanke is ready with QE3.  He's incompetent and delusional.  See this.
Screwed Again: BAD NEWS


----------



## KissMy

Gold is going to make another new all time high. I called that here in the Gold & Silver thread.


----------



## Trajan

well* I *said way back in summer time that gold had not run its course at 1200...and saw it getting close to its adjusted all time high of 2000 and change.....*so there*!


----------



## Zander

miller said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> I think anyone buying the 10 or 30 year Treasury bond with the intention of holding it to maturity risks getting slaughtered.  Best of luck to those who do.  It's return return-free risk!
> 
> 
> I am now slightly net short after this afternoon after putting on some short positions, but the f****** longs bid the market up into the close.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am not planning on holding to maturity.....
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Bad news Zander.  The dollar will crash, inflation will skyrocket, and Bernanke is ready with QE3.  He's incompetent and delusional.  See this.
> Screwed Again: BAD NEWS
Click to expand...


Well, that is what the herd is expecting..... Myself, I usually don't follow the herd. I go the other way. That is why I predict the dollar will rally, interest rates will fall, and deflation will counter any inflation real or imagined. 

Best of luck following the herd.....


----------



## Zander

miller said:


> uscitizen said:
> 
> 
> 
> I find it funny that a "Time to short stocks" thread has been going on for a year or so.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> When Zander decides to buy, that's when you short.  Zander's going to get ripped in his long Treasury.  If Bernanke isn't fired Treasuries will trade higher than 16%.  The high rate in 1981 was 15.5% and debt was only $1 trillion then.
Click to expand...


Really? I  made over 10% on the long bond last year and am up around 3% since January of this year.   I expect to book double digit gains again this year with very little risk.  

As for shorting stocks - we have been going sideways since September when I started this thread. I am still bearish.   I won't be buying until we see a strong correction.  

Best of luck!


----------



## KissMy

The Herd is sitting on cash & bonds to affraid to get back into the markets. The stocks trading volume is so low that the exchanges can't make money. Therefore they are consolidating & Germany is buying out the NYSE. Nothing but a few computers flash trading, unprofitable for the exchanges. There are very few citizens actually invested into commodities.


----------



## william the wie

Zander said:


> Well, that is what the herd is expecting..... Myself, I usually don't follow the herd. I go the other way. That is why I predict the dollar will rally, interest rates will fall, and deflation will counter any inflation real or imagined.
> 
> Best of luck following the herd.....


Since the US is the best of the worst among the G20 my bet is that both of you will be right at different points in the year so I'll keep hedging with structural leverage.


----------



## Zander

Today was exactly the kind of day that I expect the entire year to be like - Stocks dropped, the USD rallied, and bond yields fell.


----------



## KissMy

Zander said:


> Today was exactly the kind of day that I expect the entire year to be like - Stocks dropped, the USD rallied, and bond yields fell.



That is a given. In order to sell stocks you must buy dollars. The important question is what will investors trade these dollars for tomorrow? I think they will trade them in for commodities.


----------



## Zander

KissMy said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> Today was exactly the kind of day that I expect the entire year to be like - Stocks dropped, the USD rallied, and bond yields fell.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That is a given. In order to sell stocks you must buy dollars. The important question is what will investors trade these dollars for tomorrow? I think they will trade them in for commodities.
Click to expand...


They will do what they've been doing - an ongoing flight to safety. Treasuries and gold.


----------



## Toro

Actually, the dollar didn't rally today.  It was pretty flat.  It rallied overseas until someone on the ECB intimated the ECB may raise interest rates soon.

As for today, I don't know if this is the beginning of the end.  Last year, the recovery was beginning to accelerate when Greece flared up.  Now, with the economy accelerating, the Middle East is flaring up.  However, last year, the market crashed within days after QE ended.  QE2 is still ongoing, and will be for three more months.

My guess is this is a much needed correction and consolidation of 5%-7%, but I may be wrong.  I did sell some stuff today but bought a bit elsewhere.


----------



## ginscpy

Now is the time to stay calm and not panic  with the turmoil in Libya.

Typical knee-jerk reaction sell-off on Tuesday


----------



## waltky

Oh...

... Granny thought it was time to stock shorts...

... meanin' warmer weather comin'...

... nevermind.


----------



## KissMy

Zander said:


> They will do what they've been doing - an ongoing flight to safety. Treasuries and gold.



I think they fled to Silver & Oil.


----------



## Douger

ginscpy said:


> Now is the time to stay calm and not panic  with the turmoil in Libya.
> 
> Typical knee-jerk reaction sell-off on Tuesday


Good advice.Keep an eye on the NZD too. It'll bottom soon. BUY then.
NZ is a highly productive nation. They'll bounce back quick just like Chile did last year.


----------



## Zander

Today the long bond yield is down to 4.49%....


----------



## KissMy

It will not be time to sell Gold, Silver, Oil, or Farm Land until The Rabbi starts buying in. The Rabbi has been as out of phase as on could get with gold, dollars & stocks.

The Rabbi is wrong again. Gold, Silver, Oil, & Farm Land make new highs. How do you like me now!

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3umaLe37-LE"]How do you like me now[/ame]


----------



## KissMy

This big market dip is caused by the news of nuclear disaster in Japan.

All the nuclear power plant reactors that could "melt down" have been de-commissioned for over the past 30 years or have been updated to use a sub critical mass fuel just like this ones in Japan.

A nuclear meltdown is nearly impossible. All that happens in a partial "melt down" is that 1 or 2 fuel rods overheated and deformed. There is no way for white hot molten weapons grade uranium to spill out of the reactor confines to create a huge "Plutonium mushroom cloud".

There are no eyes on these reactors. All info comes from radiation monitoring away from these plants. The media is hyping this because of the lack of real time eyes on certain facts. Just because nobody can give the media definite answers, speculation & fantasy fill the news.

Buy stocks & commodities on this big dip.

Looking at power production on a risk reward basis there have been fewer deaths from nuclear energy than coal, oil, natural gas, hydro-electric.


----------



## Jos

This "dip" is caused in part by the Japanese traders selling paper to raise cash, look for a big jump in metals by Friday. 
DYODD


----------



## Zander

The Long T-bond yield is down to 4.35% today.


----------



## Chris

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rallied Monday, with the Dow surging more than 200 points in a broad-based rally.

Investors were encouraged by progress in Japan's nuclear crisis and AT&T's $39 billion deal to acquire T-Mobile USA.

Email Print The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) jumped 212 points, or 1.8%, the S&P 500 (SPX) index was up 21 points, or 1.6%; and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 50 points, or 1.9%.

Market Report - Mar. 21, 2011 - CNNMoney.com


----------



## g5000

Zander said:


> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!



The price of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF (SDS) the day your post was made was $110.96, not $28.08.  I'm surprised this was not caught.

The price continued to drop ever since this post.  Sadly for you, it has never risen above the October 15, 2010 price.

Today, the price is $36.44.  So you have lost about two thirds of your investment if you actually bought SDS and have held onto it all this time.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has risen from 1176.19 on the date of your post to 1696.78 as of this moment.

The Dow has risen from 11062.78 to 15,559.14.


----------



## Toro

Well, I'll give Zander props for sticking his neck out.  However, I think this post nails it.



> The economy continues to do okay, the stock market is hitting all-time highs every day, real estate is back on the up and up, interest rates remain very low by historical terms, the net worth of Americans is back at all-time highs, weve just dragged ourselves out of the worst recession in 80 years, but people are still upset about a lot of things . . . I have a feeling that theres more to this general unhappiness than meets the eye. And I think a lot of people are mad because the fear case has totally lost out at this point.​
> ... there is a deeper, more fundamental reason for the unfocused rage and misdirected anger: The failure of the narratives that have been driving much of economics, investing and politics. As John Kenneth Galbraith famously said, Faced with the choice between changing ones mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. Rather than accepting certain unpleasant realities, many participants have contorted themselves into a painful waiting game. They are busy on the proof.
> 
> The Galbraith quote reflects a favorite topic of ours  Cognitive Dissonance  and we have spilled more than a few pixels in these pages on the subject. As many of the narratives have failed, rather than admit the error and face the music, the rationales have morphed into a waiting game. Dow 5000 will happen eventually, Collapse of the Dollar  and all fiat currencies  is coming; Hyper-inflation (any day now), Gold will hit $10,000 (sold to you), Great Recession 2, Oil $200, etc.  The reference is not to any one of these errors specifically, but rather, tot he entire narrative driven belief systems in general. They are by design money losing stories, either torturing the data or ignoring it entirely.



The Narrative Fails | The Big Picture


----------



## Toro

g5000 said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The price of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF (SDS) the day your post was made was $110.96, not $28.08.  I'm surprised this was not caught.
> 
> The price continued to drop ever since this post.  Sadly for you, it has never risen above the October 15, 2010 price.
> 
> Today, the price is $36.44.  So you have lost about two thirds of your investment if you actually bought SDS and have held onto it all this time.
> 
> Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has risen from 1176.19 on the date of your post to 1696.78 as of this moment.
> 
> The Dow has risen from 11062.78 to 15,559.14.
Click to expand...


SDS had a 4:1 reverse stock split.  

ProShares ETFs: News Center - ProShares Announces ETF Share Splits

110.96 / 4 = 27.74.  So the price you're quoting is before the reverse split.


----------



## g5000

Toro said:


> g5000 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.
> 
> Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF  at $28.08.
> 
> Best of luck!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The price of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF (SDS) the day your post was made was $110.96, not $28.08.  I'm surprised this was not caught.
> 
> The price continued to drop ever since this post.  Sadly for you, it has never risen above the October 15, 2010 price.
> 
> Today, the price is $36.44.  So you have lost about two thirds of your investment if you actually bought SDS and have held onto it all this time.
> 
> Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has risen from 1176.19 on the date of your post to 1696.78 as of this moment.
> 
> The Dow has risen from 11062.78 to 15,559.14.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> SDS had a 4:1 reverse stock split.
> 
> ProShares ETFs: News Center - ProShares Announces ETF Share Splits
> 
> 110.96 / 4 = 27.74.  So the price you're quoting is before the reverse split.
Click to expand...


Ah.  Thank you.


The end result is the same.  A two thirds drop in value since October 2012.


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