# Your Prediction as of 10/18



## Dr.Traveler (Oct 18, 2012)

Let's see who's willing to go on record with a prediction about the race to the White House.

If you picked other, please explain.  Here we go...


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 18, 2012)

As for my vote:  I picked other.  I strongly suspect that the race will come down to a margin of maybe 1 state, probably Ohio.  After that, I predict that the winner of Ohio will be disputed in court and we'll see a replay of the 2000 election where the SCOTUS gets involved.  I just don't see anyone winning by enough of a margin for this to be a clean victory.


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## Mad Scientist (Oct 18, 2012)

Romney "wins" in a squeaker that keeps Americans divided, which was the plan all along.


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## Oddball (Oct 18, 2012)

I think Romney wins, for no better reason that Obiedoodle can't crack the 50% threshold in all of the swing states.

Historically, the "undecideds" have gone for the challenger when the incumbent doesn't have a plurality.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 18, 2012)

Oddball said:


> I think Romney wins, for no better reason that Obiedoodle can't crack the 50% threshold in all of the swing states.
> 
> Historically, the "undecideds" have gone for the challenger when the incumbent doesn't have a plurality.



That's probably the best argument there is for a Romney victory right now. I could see that happening.


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## Oddball (Oct 18, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Oddball said:
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> 
> > I think Romney wins, for no better reason that Obiedoodle can't crack the 50% threshold in all of the swing states.
> ...


I'll take it one better.

I just heard on the news that the Bamster is campaigning in New Hampshire today...New Hampshire and it's 4 electoral votes is now requiring a campaign stop?

I think he's going to get his as kicked and I think he knows it.


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## Uncensored2008 (Oct 18, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Let's see who's willing to go on record with a prediction about the race to the White House.
> 
> If you picked other, please explain.  Here we go...



I week ago I wouldn't have, but I see a Romney win in a moderately  close election.


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## CrusaderFrank (Oct 18, 2012)

Obama himself said it best, "When I was president..."

Adios, dickwad!!


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## toomuchtime_ (Oct 18, 2012)

The RCP electoral map already has Romney ahead of Obama 206 to 201 and the trend has been consistent since the first debate.  The latest polls have Obama ahead by only one point in Ohio and by only four points in Pennsylvania.  Both states are doable for Romney.  

Until recently, Obama had been outspending Romney in the swing states by 2 to 1, but now Romney is spending as much or more than Obama in those states.  For all his blathering about his campaign's ground game, Obama won in 2008 *only* because he outspent McCain by 4 to 1 during the campaign and by 5 to 1 during the last month.  Clearly, that's not going to happen this time.  A Romney win now has to be considered likely and a big win is not out of the question.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 19, 2012)

Any other takers?


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## auditor0007 (Oct 19, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> As for my vote:  I picked other.  I strongly suspect that the race will come down to a margin of maybe 1 state, probably Ohio.  After that, I predict that the winner of Ohio will be disputed in court and we'll see a replay of the 2000 election where the SCOTUS gets involved.  I just don't see anyone winning by enough of a margin for this to be a clean victory.



After the last debate, the tide turns back to Obama.  It's already started but just not that noticeable yet.  As we get closer to election day, I believe that the undecideds and even some who may be leaning Romney will move to Obama for one simple reason, they don't like Mitt Romney and they actually do somewhat like and trust Obama.  This is an extremely important factor and it will come into play with voters who are just not sure and waiting till the end to decide.  In the end, I see Obama winning most of the swing states, although they will be close.  This will give him a substantial lead in the electoral college.


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## auditor0007 (Oct 19, 2012)

Oddball said:


> I think Romney wins, for no better reason that Obiedoodle can't crack the 50% threshold in all of the swing states.
> 
> Historically, the "undecideds" have gone for the challenger when the incumbent doesn't have a plurality.



Historically, there has never been such a big disparity in likeability as there is between Obama and Romney.  That is what will keep Romney from winning in the end; people just don't like him, and yes, when it comes to casting a ballot, that matters.


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## Oddball (Oct 19, 2012)

auditor0007 said:


> Oddball said:
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> > I think Romney wins, for no better reason that Obiedoodle can't crack the 50% threshold in all of the swing states.
> ...


As though the snobbish narcissist Oboingo is likable? 

GAFB.


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## Zander (Oct 19, 2012)

Romney will win in a landslide 321-217.


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## Zander (Oct 19, 2012)

auditor0007 said:


> Oddball said:
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> > I think Romney wins, for no better reason that Obiedoodle can't crack the 50% threshold in all of the swing states.
> ...



Keep hitting that bong bub......self soothing is good.......


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 23, 2012)

Any takers after last night?

FiveThrityEight has Obama at a 70% chance to win the Electoral Vote, but only at 50% for the popular vote.  I find myself agreeing with that as it looks like Romney will win the Red States by a HUGE margin, get some traction in the Blue States, but seems to still just barely lag behind in the swing states.

I'm still predicting an unconventional end to this.  The EC count is going to be VERY narrow, like 273-265 Obama.


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## Zander (Oct 23, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Any takers after last night?
> 
> FiveThrityEight has Obama at a 70% chance to win the Electoral Vote, but only at 50% for the popular vote.  I find myself agreeing with that as it looks like Romney will win the Red States by a HUGE margin, get some traction in the Blue States, but seems to still just barely lag behind in the swing states.
> 
> I'm still predicting an unconventional end to this.  The EC count is going to be VERY narrow, like 273-265 Obama.



Nate Silver.. He's a one hit wonder- he blew it in 2010 and he's doing it again this time. He's only gotten one election right- Obama in '08.... Big F'n Deal - everyone saw that train coming...it's nothing magical.  You do know that he's only been around for 4 years, right?  

Anyway, I am still sticking with 300+ Electoral Votes for Romney and a decisive win in the Popular Vote. Romney has proven to be a viable alternative to Obama. The economy is the ONLY issue that will move voters this cycle.  Barring some major screw up by Romney- Obama is out.


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## AquaAthena (Oct 23, 2012)

Zander said:


> Dr.Traveler said:
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> > Any takers after last night?
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Romney played it very cool last night in the debate. He looked like the good guy, with leadership qualities and a steady temperament. He knew he had that fist debate win under his belt and didn't say or do anything last night, that would alter that very favorable impression. Good tactical strategy. Can't wait to hear Bill O`Reilly's guests tonight.


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## DiamondDave (Oct 23, 2012)




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## Big Black Dog (Oct 23, 2012)

It's going to be a close election but Romney will be the next President.  Obama is toast.


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## skookerasbil (Oct 23, 2012)

And for Mitt Romney.................


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## candycorn (Oct 23, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Let's see who's willing to go on record with a prediction about the race to the White House.
> 
> If you picked other, please explain.  Here we go...



Obama has had it sewn up for months.  Still does.  300-320 Electoral votes.  Book it.


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## candycorn (Oct 23, 2012)

Zander said:


> Dr.Traveler said:
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Care to take me up on my bet?

Romney wins, I stop posting.
Obama wins, you stop posting.

Scared?


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## candycorn (Oct 23, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Any takers after last night?
> 
> FiveThrityEight has Obama at a 70% chance to win the Electoral Vote, but only at 50% for the popular vote.  I find myself agreeing with that as it looks like Romney will win the Red States by a HUGE margin, get some traction in the Blue States, but seems to still just barely lag behind in the swing states.
> 
> I'm still predicting an unconventional end to this.  The EC count is going to be VERY narrow, like 273-265 Obama.



Whether he wins by 30-50 EVs or just one; Obama will win.  It basically comes down to Florida whether he wins by 30 or more.  He'll win though.


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## Cecilie1200 (Oct 23, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Let's see who's willing to go on record with a prediction about the race to the White House.
> 
> If you picked other, please explain.  Here we go...



I'm not a fan of polls, but I will be happy to go on record with a prediction that it will be a clear win for Romney.


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## AmyNation (Oct 23, 2012)

It will be close, but I see Romney taking the win.


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## alan1 (Oct 23, 2012)

auditor0007 said:


> Oddball said:
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> > I think Romney wins, for no better reason that Obiedoodle can't crack the 50% threshold in all of the swing states.
> ...



Haha, some fucking dweebs in the press tell you that Mr Obama is more "likeable" than Mr Romney and that somehow makes a difference for you?
Two things.
First one, smart people vote based upon ability, not likability.
Second one, Mr Romney is likable, despite what the biased MSM says about him.  I'd rather sit down and have a Scotch and water with Mr Romney (me Scotch and him water since he doesn't drink alcohol), than have a couple beers with Mr Obama (and we both drink beer).


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## AmyNation (Oct 23, 2012)

Romney had always had a likeability/relatability issue, even before he ran for POTUS. The constant blaming of " msm bias" for anything conservatives disagree with has crossed the line from silly to absurd.


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## Avatar4321 (Oct 23, 2012)

Romney will win in a landslide of well over 300. 

1) Put him next to Obama and he looks more Presidential and clearly has knowledge of the issues
2) He is breaking the 50% mark this close to the election.
3) As much as Obama is trying to say otherwise, the economy is not in good shape and the people know it.
4) Romney comes off as far more humble than the President.
5) I had a dream.


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## Conservative (Oct 23, 2012)

AmyNation said:


> It will be close, but I see Romney taking the win.



This.


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## Avatar4321 (Oct 23, 2012)

candycorn said:


> Dr.Traveler said:
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do you really think Obama will win Florida with the Castro endorsement?


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## Conservative (Oct 23, 2012)

candycorn said:


> Zander said:
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you already have the same bet with me, and I have every confidence that you'll weasel out of it when Obama loses.


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## candycorn (Oct 24, 2012)

Avatar4321 said:


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Yes, with it or without it.


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## candycorn (Oct 24, 2012)

Conservative said:


> candycorn said:
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Sorry but Zander has a great many more points on his rack.  If he's really that confident, he'll have no problem taking me up on it.


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## Uncensored2008 (Oct 24, 2012)

Zander said:


> Nate Silver.. He's a one hit wonder- he blew it in 2010 and he's doing it again this time. He's only gotten one election right- Obama in '08.... Big F'n Deal - everyone saw that train coming...it's nothing magical.  You do know that he's only been around for 4 years, right?
> 
> Anyway, I am still sticking with 300+ Electoral Votes for Romney and a decisive win in the Popular Vote. Romney has proven to be a viable alternative to Obama. The economy is the ONLY issue that will move voters this cycle.  Barring some major screw up by Romney- Obama is out.



The Benghazi Emails have driven the final nails in Obama's coffin. I don't know if this will equate to 300 EC votes or not, but I see no way the liar in chief can possibly be reelected at this point.


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## PredFan (Oct 24, 2012)

I have been saying since forever that obama will be re-elected.

You can't fix stupid.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 24, 2012)

Zander said:


> Dr.Traveler said:
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> > Any takers after last night?
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I mentioned Silver, but he's hardly the only one predicting that.  Statistical predictions are made based on math, and right now the math is predicting an electoral win for Obama with a possible popular vote win for Romney.

We'll know better on Monday though.  I wouldn't put it as an impossibility that Romney wins by a margin that won't require lawyers, but I doubt very seriously we're seeing a blow out developing.  That would be obvious at this point and there's nothing there.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 24, 2012)

Uncensored2008 said:


> The Benghazi Emails have driven the final nails in Obama's coffin. I don't know if this will equate to 300 EC votes or not, but I see no way the liar in chief can possibly be reelected at this point.



Understand as I say this that I myself am fairly appalled by what's coming out.  I'm not surprised, as Obama has proven to be fairly weak, but I am appalled.

The problem is, no one else cares outside this small microcosm.  The attacks in Libya are a lot like the Embassy attacks under Clinton and Cole bombing.  If you're paying attention this is a big frickkin' deal.  But no one is.  Most Americans only care about foreign policy issues when they come knock on the front door, if then.

Posters here, even the stupidest ones, are actually interested in domestic and foreign politics or they wouldn't waste time here.  That gives them a leg up on familiarity on pretty much every single issue in the election.  Benghazi just hasn't risen to the level the public cares about it as much as we do.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 24, 2012)

Avatar4321 said:


> Romney will win in a landslide of well over 300.



I'm sorry, there's just no evidence of any kind we're looking at a landslide.  If Romney cracks 300, it will be in the VERY low 300's, like 303 or so.

It isn't impossible he could win, though I'd still give Obama the odds at this point.  But typically by this point it's fairly obvious if we're looking at a landslide.  We're not.  If I said Obama would win in a landslide I'd be just as wrong as saying Romney will.


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## Zander (Oct 24, 2012)

candycorn said:


> Zander said:
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Scared?   Not in the least bit deary....   But I still wont be taking you up on your ridiculous bet (that youve already made with others here...) 

Your opinion means nothing to me and youd likely welch on the bet anyway.youve proven that you are a worthless forum troll who rarely, if ever, adds anything of substance to the conversation.


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## Uncensored2008 (Oct 24, 2012)

Avatar4321 said:


> do you really think Obama will win Florida with the Castro endorsement?



Candy thinks the Castro endorsement helps Obama in Florida. I mean, it helps in Calfornia.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 24, 2012)

For the folks predicting a landslide:

Go to Rasmussen and look at his map.  Give all the toss ups to Romney (unlikely to happen, but stay with me).  That gives Romney at this point 301 Electoral Votes.

Which Safe/Leaning Blue states do you expect Romney to flip?


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## Oldguy (Oct 24, 2012)

I accidentally clicked the wrong choice and gave the election to Romney.  


My REAL prediction is that the popular vote will be very close, with Romney perhaps even holding a slight advantage, but Obama will win the electoral vote by about 20 or so.


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## Uncensored2008 (Oct 24, 2012)

Oldguy said:


> I accidentally clicked the wrong choice and gave the election to Romney.
> 
> 
> My REAL prediction is that the popular vote will be very close, with Romney perhaps even holding a slight advantage, but Obama will win the electoral vote by about 20 or so.



Not after the "October Surprise" Obama unleashed on himself.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 24, 2012)

For the record, my prediction state by state is this:

Obama 275, Romney 263

This means I'll go to bed Election night not knowing who won as Ohio is always a late call, and Nevada will decide the election out towards the West.  But c'est la vie.  Since I've had kids, I don't prioritize this stuff like I used to.


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## Uncensored2008 (Oct 24, 2012)

My prediction at this moment is  Obama 254  -   Romney 284


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## candycorn (Oct 24, 2012)

Zander said:


> candycorn said:
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I love it!  

Well, you're really not that confident in Romney's victory.  Can't say I blame you bitch-boy...  He's circling the drain.

Can't wait to rub your nose it it.  Get used to it my beeotch.


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## copsnrobbers (Oct 24, 2012)

candycorn said:


> Zander said:
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I'll take that bet.. Contact the administrator. Loser is out for 3 months.


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## candycorn (Oct 24, 2012)

copsnrobbers said:


> candycorn said:
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I'll be gone for good if I lose.  But 3 months is good too.  You're on.


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## Uncensored2008 (Oct 25, 2012)

candycorn said:


> I'll be gone for good if I lose.  But 3 months is good too.  You're on.



It was nice knowing you. 

You're a leftist moron, but you gave the Muzzie Beasts hell in the Israel forum, both here and at AWE.


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## earlycuyler (Oct 25, 2012)

On record.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 29, 2012)

Here we be, 8 days out.  Any predictions at this point?


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## CMike (Oct 29, 2012)

No idea.


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## Zander (Oct 29, 2012)

Obama will lose - ironically with 47% of the vote.......


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 30, 2012)

Ok, 1 week left.  Any predictions?

I'm still thinking a squeaker in the Electoral College that ends up in court.  275 for Obama, Romney wins the popular.


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## candycorn (Oct 30, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Ok, 1 week left.  Any predictions?
> 
> I'm still thinking a squeaker in the Electoral College that ends up in court.  275 for Obama, Romney wins the popular.



Obama 300-320 electoral votes.


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## Uncensored2008 (Oct 30, 2012)

I'm sticking with Obama 254 - Romney 284


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## Uncensored2008 (Oct 30, 2012)

candycorn said:


> Obama 300-320 electoral votes.



Based on you having your mouth full of Obama's cum.

But for the grown ups, the race will be very close.


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## GuyPinestra (Oct 30, 2012)

Romney in a tight race, less than 300 EV...

Zander is funny and probably right, Obama gets 47% of the popular vote...


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 30, 2012)

Uncensored2008 said:


> I'm sticking with Obama 254 - Romney 284



You're predicting WI, OH, NH go red?  Certainly not impossible.


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## geauxtohell (Oct 30, 2012)

10/30:  Obama wins well over 270 but under 299 in line with Nate Sliver's 75% prediction.  

For those that are sure Obama is doomed, I will remind you of the thing I said at the start of this, it is very, very, very hard to unseat an incumbent president.

You either need an awful incumbent or a dynamic challenger.  Obama is not awful (no matter how much you believe otherwise) and Romney is not that dynamic (which I doubt anyone would dispute).

For the truly undecideds, the decision in the ballot box will truly come down to a known quantity or an unknown entity who has yet to articulate a clear vision for this country.


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## Uncensored2008 (Oct 30, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Uncensored2008 said:
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> > I'm sticking with Obama 254 - Romney 284
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Exactly.

Wisconsin is a lock for Romney, Ohio is much more tricky. Obama is resurging in the buckeye state today.


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## geauxtohell (Oct 30, 2012)

Also, at this point I don't think Polls are terribly useful.  I think everyone has polling fatigue.  Hell, I am blatantly partisan and wouldn't even waste my time talking to a pollster to help the candidate I support.


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## Oddball (Oct 30, 2012)

Uncensored2008 said:


> Dr.Traveler said:
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If that's true, the way that VA, NC, FLA, CO & NH are trending, Vinnie won't need Ohio.


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## geauxtohell (Oct 30, 2012)

Oddball said:


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The rub lies in the whole "if that's true", because virtually no data supports it.  I think Romney will pull out NC, FL, and possibly CO.  Really doubt he will take NH and VA.  

Especially after the storm.


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## Oddball (Oct 30, 2012)

geauxtohell said:


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All of those states are trending Romney...That's the fact.


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## Rozman (Oct 30, 2012)

Sort of wish Truthmatters was here to yell at us right wingers.
Saw her name in a post a while back and said she was banned.
I sort of miss her calling me an idiot...

That's all....


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## geauxtohell (Oct 30, 2012)

Oddball said:


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Until they aren't or the clock runs out.......


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 30, 2012)

Uncensored2008 said:


> Exactly.
> 
> Wisconsin is a lock for Romney, Ohio is much more tricky. Obama is resurging in the buckeye state today.



I'll say this about Wisconsin.  WI should be a lock for Romney.  It's been one of the big unreported issues of the election that Romney has been consistently down in WI when he should have easily been crushing Obama there.  The problem is that no one, not even Rasmussen, has Romney up there.  The best he's showing now in WI is a tie.  So for some reason I just don't get, WI is a tie.

Obama could lose WI, and win the election, but to be honest, if WI comes back as a Romney state, I'm going to go to bed thinking Romney won.

We won't know Ohio until the 17th unfortunately.  I agree that Romney could easily carry New Hampshire.  Ohio is more tricky.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 30, 2012)

geauxtohell said:


> The rub lies in the whole "if that's true", because virtually no data supports it.  I think Romney will pull out NC, FL, and possibly CO.  Really doubt he will take NH and VA.
> 
> Especially after the storm.



NH I wouldn't even dream of calling now.  I'd thought that was a solid Blue state for the President, but now, I'm not at all certain.

I will be VERY surprised if VA goes to Obama.  He was up there, and VA has been trending blue, but after the first debate Obama dropped behind and stayed behind.  RCP has it as a tie, but that's based on exactly one poll with Obama +4 balancing out two with Romney at +2.  I tend to think VA is going to fall Red this time.

Should VA go to Obama, I will go to bed early on election night.  VA going blue means Romney failed to make any serious inroads into Obama's firewall of states.  Everyone expected Obama to lose IN and NC this time around, but Romney can't win without flipping some further states.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 30, 2012)

geauxtohell said:


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That's the biggest issue Romney is facing.  Whatever momentum he has started to slow down after debate 2.  He covered a lot of ground against Obama after the first debate, but now he's slowing down in the polls and he still hasn't closed the gaps.  Narrowed yes, but closed?  No.

I strongly suspect there's literally no momentum on either side now, and with Sandy dominating the news there isn't a lot of chance to really try to pick back up the momentum.  I suspect things are mostly frozen in place with Obama up by razor thin margins.

Razor thin margins a week out don't equal victory, but they also don't herald defeat either.


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## Oddball (Oct 30, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


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I've been saying since the Walker recall, WI is the canary in the coal mine.

Regardless of the tie that Rasmussen has the state listed as, Boiking's only +50% showing in the polls is the obviously biased NBC/Marist poll.

I'm well north of I-94 and have a feeling that the (R) turnout "up north" will be off the charts.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 30, 2012)

Oddball said:


> I've been saying since the Walker recall, WI is the canary in the coal mine.
> 
> Regardless of the tie that Rasmussen has the state listed as, Boiking's only +50% showing in the polls is the obviously biased NBC/Marist poll.
> 
> I'm well north of I-94 and have a feeling that the (R) turnout "up north" will be off the charts.



True, but the Democrats are highly motivated now too.  The Walker recall was plagued by the fact that the Democrats got so fired up to recall Walker they forgot to actually find a decent candidate.  But we'll see.  Like I said, I find it very surprising that Romney isn't at +5 or more in the the land of milk and cheese.


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## geauxtohell (Oct 30, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


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I think, short of a Bush/Katrina replay, Obama will regain in Sandy simply by looking presidential.  

Though if he loses, it's because he (strangely) blew the first debate so badly.


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## Zoom-boing (Oct 30, 2012)

geauxtohell said:


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If he loses it will be because the majority of people woke up in time to realize what a putz he is and are fed up with his inability to lead, his policies, and his lies.


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## geauxtohell (Oct 30, 2012)

Zoom-boing said:


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Fanciful thinking by the righties.

In fact, you'd better hope that isn't the case.  If it is, the fact that this race is even close, only illustrates that no one likes your side either.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 31, 2012)

Real Clear Politics no toss ups map.

The only state I disagree with in that map is Iowa.  Rasmussen is the only organization showing Mitt up in Ohio.  At this point literally everyone else is showing Obama up, and that he's been up for a while.  Wisconsin all poll results show Obama up, except Rasmussen which shows a tie.  All poll results show Obama up in Nevada.

I'm standing by my Obama 275 electoral votes and losing the popular with a court battle to follow.

For some other looks:

http://electoral-vote.com/
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/election_2012


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## Oddball (Oct 31, 2012)

A lot of the pollsters are oversampling democratics by upwards of +6 - +8...I don't believe the spread is going to be that high.


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## Dr.Traveler (Oct 31, 2012)

Oddball said:


> A lot of the pollsters are oversampling democratics by upwards of +6 - +8...I don't believe the spread is going to be that high.



True, and in some of the states given to Obama on these no toss up maps, Obama has not yet broken 50% in any poll.  So the likely undecided split is still a factor.

I'm not confident enough in an Obama victory that I'd bet any money on it.  I think anyone that is that confident is just plain crazy.  I would say the same about Romney too.  He absolutely could win, but I wouldn't be any more likely to bet on him that I would on Obama.


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## Oddball (Oct 31, 2012)

50/50 turnout and it's a blowout.


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## mamooth (Oct 31, 2012)

Given how strong Obama is running on the home stretch, 300+ looks very likely for him.

We need a new poll. How many of the Republican blowhards here will slink away, but then immediately come back under a new identity?


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## Zoom-boing (Oct 31, 2012)

I honestly have no idea who is going to win.  As far as I can tell it is pretty neck and neck, could go either way.  I don't see a landslide one way or the other.  Squeaker.


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 1, 2012)

Zoom-boing said:


> I honestly have no idea who is going to win.  As far as I can tell it is pretty neck and neck, could go either way.  I don't see a landslide one way or the other.  Squeaker.



Ditto.  I strongly suspect this ends in the courts because things are so close.  If it comes down to Ohio, we could be a while knowing.


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## Zander (Nov 1, 2012)

I predict that we will know the winner within moments of the west coast polls closing....


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 1, 2012)

Zander said:


> I predict that we will know the winner within moments of the west coast polls closing....



The only way I see that happening is if PA goes Red or VA goes blue.  I suspect the West coast results to be frustratingly predictable.


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## Cecilie1200 (Nov 1, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Zoom-boing said:
> 
> 
> > I honestly have no idea who is going to win.  As far as I can tell it is pretty neck and neck, could go either way.  I don't see a landslide one way or the other.  Squeaker.
> ...



. . . You DO realize that close elections don't "end in the courts", they end in the House of Representatives, right?  The only reason 2000 ended in the courts is because Al Gore tried to steal the election with endless recounts, and a rogue court decided to overstep its bounds and try to rewrite Florida election law.  That's not actually how the election system works.


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## Zoom-boing (Nov 1, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Zoom-boing said:
> 
> 
> > I honestly have no idea who is going to win.  As far as I can tell it is pretty neck and neck, could go either way.  I don't see a landslide one way or the other.  Squeaker.
> ...




Yup.



> With the presidential election expected to hinge on Ohio, the states former secretary of state, GOP stalwart Kenneth Blackwell, is warning that a little-known change in the Buckeye States absentee-ballot process could lead to a nightmare scenario.
> 
> And that scenario could force the entire country to wait 10 days after the election to find out who will be the next president of the United States. Its a complicated situation, to say the least, but one that could have a far-reaching impact on the Nov. 6 election process.
> 
> ...



Ohio Voting Count 'Nightmare' Looms


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 5, 2012)

Cecilie1200 said:


> Dr.Traveler said:
> 
> 
> > Zoom-boing said:
> ...



It isn't, and I've been fairly vocal on these boards about how pissed off I was about the 2000 election ending in the courts.  The correct decision was to not sit the electors from Florida or to not certify the results and appeal to the House.

2000 teaches me though that no one is going to let this go to the House.  And there already is legal issues in Florida (Yippee.) and brewing problems in Ohio related to the fact that the results may not be known there until the 17th.

So again, how things are SUPPOSED to work is that if the election is in dispute, we go to the House and Senate.  But the reality?  We'll be going to court.


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## decker (Nov 5, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Cecilie1200 said:
> 
> 
> > Dr.Traveler said:
> ...


at moment this is what my gut telling me

vi,fi,co and nc to go to romney
mi,pa and nv to obama

i generally not sure about ohio,nh,iowa and wi. all of them could go way or another. depends on turnout

i might be wrong but that where i see it at the moment. i am probally wrong though


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 5, 2012)

Ok, final chance to weigh in.

I'm still going with the "Unconventional end" myself, but I could see a close win for either Obama or Romney at this point.

I will go on record saying this:  If either man cracks 310 Electoral Votes, Obama or Romney, I'll calling bullshit and saying this thing is rigged.  Even at this late a game, there's no indication of a landslide in the works.


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## decker (Nov 5, 2012)

Zoom-boing said:


> Dr.Traveler said:
> 
> 
> > Zoom-boing said:
> ...


i hate this to be repeat of 2000 with never ending election going on and on. but if it close then could happen


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## decker (Nov 5, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Ok, final chance to weigh in.
> 
> I'm still going with the "Unconventional end" myself, but I could see a close win for either Obama or Romney at this point.
> 
> I will go on record saying this:  If either man cracks 310 Electoral Votes, Obama or Romney, I'll calling bullshit and saying this thing is rigged.  Even at this late a game, there's no indication of a landslide in the works.


very good point. if either man wins landslide it really goes against most polls. but it might happen if either side breaks the other wall.

say if romney wins pa or mi or obama wins fi. but unless that happens we looking at a close election to the night

watch demographics on who turn out on the day. that be vital in swing states for both sides


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 5, 2012)

decker said:


> at moment this is what my gut telling me
> 
> vi,fi,co and nc to go to romney
> mi,pa and nv to obama
> ...



The latest polls show Obama has a shot in VA, IA and CO, but I seriously doubt that.  I expect all 3 will go to Romney as will Florida and North Carolina.

PA and MI are not really swing states.  They're locked in for Obama.

Obama is currently ahead and has stayed ahead all year in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Ohio, which is electorally all he really needs.  New Hampshire will probably go Obama, but isn't really necessary in the contest.

The absolute cap for Obama is 347 Electoral Votes.  That would involve him taking all of the states in question and stealing all states that are only narrowly GOP.  I see that as impossible.  The realistic cap is 318, but even at that point, if Obama gets 318 Electoral Votes given the data we've seen up till now, I think the GOP should launch voter fraud investigations.  The only way he legitimately hits that number is if Sanday had a huge impact on the electorate that came too late for the polls to measure.

The absolute cap for Romney is 321.  That represents him winning all swing states and stealing all of the barely blue states.  The more realistic cap for Romney is 310.  That represents him taking all currently tied states plus New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.  The only legitimate way that Romney cracks that ceiling is if all the polls really REALLY were biased, and that includes even Rasmussen as he's converging to the rest today as expected.  If Romney cracks that barrier the DNC should launch investigations into voter suppression charges across the nation.

I'm standing pat.  No landslide tomorrow.


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## decker (Nov 5, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> decker said:
> 
> 
> > at moment this is what my gut telling me
> ...


your right. i think many will look bemnused if obama cracks say fi or co or if romney cracks pa or mi

deep down i have gut feeing it be midwest that decides it. ohio and wi for me are two key states. whoever wins both of those states will be in very strong postion to win

in your poll you have romney at least 263. then he needs either wi or ohio. so he be in good place then.

i think on my map i have romney on 257 and obama on 243 with nh,iowa,wi,ohio all to play for. so romney will then need either just ohio or wi and nh. obama would need ohio and wi or ohio ,iw and nh. 

i still sense ohio and wi could be key to whole election. we see. i could be wrong


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## paulitician (Nov 5, 2012)

I know i'm in the minority, but i predict Romney won't need Ohio. I think he wins going away. His large margin of victory is going to be the shocker and story of this Election.


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 5, 2012)

decker said:


> i still sense ohio and wi could be key to whole election. we see. i could be wrong



They will be.  I don't see Obama winning without both, but given the data, he's likely to take both.

I will say this, I consider Wisconsin to be less solidly Obama and Ohio at this point.  I could see Obama taking Ohio and losing Wisconsin, and the election, at the very end despite what the polls say.  Romney has a lot of strengths that come into play in Wisconsin and the GOP there is fired up.

I do not think it is impossible for Romney to win, I just think an Obama victory is more likely.  Should Romney win I expect he'll be able to thank Wisconsin.



paulitician said:


> I know i'm in the minority, but i predict Romney won't need Ohio. I think he wins going away. His large margin of victory is going to be the shocker and story of this Election.



This I don't believe.  There's absolutely no data, none, indicating either man is heading for a landslide victory.  I said it a few posts up and I will say it now again.  If Romney or Obama cracks 310+ you should call bullshit and start looking into if this election was tainted by either voter fraud or voter suppression.  Go to Rasmussen, give Romney all the toss ups, and he only gets 301 Electoral Votes.  Obama is only in a slightly better shape all told.

No landslide.


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## Cecilie1200 (Nov 5, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Cecilie1200 said:
> 
> 
> > Dr.Traveler said:
> ...



Actually, the correct decision in 2000 was what would have happened had the court case gone on any longer:  the certified Florida election results would have stood irregardless of any legal maneuvering.  The courts do not and did not have any say in the election itself.

I can't imagine why anyone would think it would be correct to not certify the results, given that they were in on time, and the law required it.

I also can't imagine why you would say "no one is going to LET it go to the House".  How in the hell do you imagine they could STOP it?

You can go to court all you like, but it's a fallacy that it affected the election process itself in 2000, or that it will in the future.


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 5, 2012)

Cecilie1200 said:


> I can't imagine why anyone would think it would be correct to not certify the results, given that they were in on time, and the law required it.



Can you provide the law requiring the Legislative to certify an election regardless of the issues involved?

Once it became clear there was an issue in Florida, the results should not have been certified.  As far as coming in on time, Gore legally had grounds to ask for the recount, Bush hired young lawyers and lobbyists to try to block it.  Look up the Brooks Brothers Riot sometime.  Then things ended up in court, which is where they shouldn't have ended.  The recount, a full one, should have gone forward and if it wasn't finished in time, then you pass on to the House.



> I also can't imagine why you would say "no one is going to LET it go to the House".  How in the hell do you imagine they could STOP it?



They, as in both parties, will do anything possible to stop a result from going to the House, especially now.  Going to the House pretty much guarantees the President and VP will be separate parties as the GOP will carry Romney to the office, but the Senate will support Biden.  What's likely to happen on election day is that an early result will come in from Ohio, everyone will sue based on numerous and sundry grounds, and the legal battle will be on for how to count the absentee and provisional ballots on the 17th of November.  And if Ohio is close, you'll see a recount and an attempt to block it.


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## Rinata (Nov 5, 2012)

I've been following the Huffpost Politics Election Dashboard. I like it because it is a snapshot of where the presidential race stands. It's based on hundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls filtered through a poll-tracking mode and updated throughout the day. 

So I'm going to predict that the outcome will be close to what they claim tomorrow. Right now they are projecting 277 for President Obama and 191 for Mitt Romney. Hope they are right. I feel strongly that they are. We'll see!!!

Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map


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## Oddball (Nov 5, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Ok, final chance to weigh in.
> 
> I'm still going with the "Unconventional end" myself, but I could see a close win for either Obama or Romney at this point.
> 
> I will go on record saying this:  If either man cracks 310 Electoral Votes, Obama or Romney, I'll calling bullshit and saying this thing is rigged.  Even at this late a game, there's no indication of a landslide in the works.


Don't know what to say.

It's seems plain to me that the polls don't reflect reality, one way or another.

Last weekend, you had Obammy campaign events in Minnesota and Wisconsin, of all places....Makes no sense if you believe the polls.


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 5, 2012)

Oddball said:


> Don't know what to say.
> 
> It's seems plain to me that the polls don't reflect reality, one way or another.
> 
> Last weekend, you had Obammy campaign events in Minnesota and Wisconsin, of all places....Makes no sense if you believe the polls.



That's it, the only way legitimately that we'll see a landslide for either man.  I think though that would be a bigger story than even the election though as Rasmussen has pretty much fallen into line in the last few days in predicting a dead heat here at the end and eliminating the chance of a landslide.

I think that most folks will accept a close finish for either man.  I know if Mitt wins coming in at even 301 I'd just accept he won and move on.  It's been a close race since the debate, but if either many tops out past 310 I'm calling bullshit.  There's always hard data indicating a landslide is coming, no matter where you are in the world.  A landslide result in the face of data from all of the pollsters would trigger allegations of vote fraud literally anywhere else in the world.  It should here too.


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## Oddball (Nov 5, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Oddball said:
> 
> 
> > Don't know what to say.
> ...


I don't even know about that...My landline has been hit like a liquor store in the LA riots with pollsters and robocalls, and we haven't answered a one of them.

Who is even answering the polls anymore?


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 5, 2012)

Oddball said:


> I don't even know about that...My landline has been hit like a liquor store in the LA riots with pollsters and robocalls, and we haven't answered a one of them.
> 
> Who is even answering the polls anymore?



I understand not wanting to answer when they call, but I do have to say that if it does turn out that all of the pollsters, all of them, are wrong and it is a landslide.... That's a terrifying outcome.  Without actual data there's no way to prove a result like that is legitimate for either candidate.  Nothing good would come of it.

I'm accepting that some of the polls right now will be wrong and a few surprises are in store.  For example, I do not believe Iowa is as blue as they're saying.  But a landslide?  No way.


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## Oddball (Nov 5, 2012)

It's not terrifying at all...It would just prove that all the "experts" are nothing of the sort.

After all, none of them predicted the 1994 or 2010 ass kickings....And I don't believe for a moment that a presidential election year necessarily makes any poll more accurate or predictable.

The whole campaigning in supposedly safe states like MN smells to me of spook shit.


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## Uncensored2008 (Nov 5, 2012)

Rinata said:


> I've been following the Huffpost Politics Election Dashboard. I like it because it is a snapshot of where the presidential race stands. It's based on hundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls filtered through a poll-tracking mode and updated throughout the day.
> 
> So I'm going to predict that the outcome will be close to what they claim tomorrow. Right now they are projecting 277 for President Obama and 191 for Mitt Romney. Hope they are right. I feel strongly that they are. We'll see!!!
> 
> Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map



You understand that isn't possible, right?

There are 538 EC votes, if Obama were to get 277 then Romney would have 261. 

I'm sticking with 284 Romney, 252 Obama.


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 5, 2012)

Oddball said:


> It's not terrifying at all...It would just prove that all the "experts" are nothing of the sort.
> 
> After all, none of them predicted the 1994 or 2010 ass kickings....And I don't believe for a moment that a presidential election year necessarily makes any poll more accurate or predictable.
> 
> The whole campaigning in supposedly safe states like MN smells to me of spook shit.



First, I don't have the 1994 data, so I don't know.  I do know that pretty much everyone reputable (i.e., not directly on the payroll of the national parties), predicted the 2010 results.  They weren't exactly a surprise.

But to give you an idea how terrifying the pollsters being wrong would be, turn this on its head.  Suppose Obama wins tomorrow with more than 348 Electoral Votes, a result no one, not even Daily Kos AFAIK is predicting.  How do you verify no fraud has occurred?  Many, as in a huge percentage, of the districts are using electronic polling machines with no paper trails at all.  Who's to say a mass hacking didn't occur?

If you were looking at an election outside the US and the internal polling agencies were predicting a near dead heat, what would you say if the result comes back landslide?

Even if the result is legit (Which is a HUGE IF), the fact you have no way to verify it means the election is forever tainted by allegations.

BTW, I'm not saying Romney cheated if he wins.  He's got a pretty good shot to win and easily could.  I'm saying if either guy, Obama or Romney, ends up with a landslide I won't be accepting it easily.


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## SuMar (Nov 5, 2012)

Well, I think Romney will win, probably not by a landslide though. The result I fear is that McCaskill will win over Akin, but not by a landslide on that either. 

I hope I'm wrong about the McCaskill - Akin result.


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## Oddball (Nov 5, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Oddball said:
> 
> 
> > It's not terrifying at all...It would just prove that all the "experts" are nothing of the sort.
> ...


I was paying particular attention in 1994, as that was my "put up or shut up" moment for ever supporting for republicans ever again...They were pegged, per conventional wisdom, as picking off a few seats as a product of the off-year election, but none of the big pundits saw the "Republican Revolution" taking over the whole legislative show.

As far as the pollsters are concerned, I believe that there is a whole lot of CYA hedging going on, even with Rasmussen....There's zero chance that that the election is going to be a blowout for Oboingo, so you're either left with a close election swinging one way or the other, or you go out on a limb and say blowout...Though I have no hard evidence, my gut says that the pollsters are going with the 2:1 safe play, and if it's a blowout for Romney the  excuses and spin pieces are already written.


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 5, 2012)

SuMar said:


> Well, I think Romney will win, probably not by a landslide though. The result I fear is that McCaskill will win over Akin, but not by a landslide on that either.
> 
> I hope I'm wrong about the McCaskill - Akin result.



Akin and Mourdock gave the DNC the Senate.  This should have been doable for the GOP and now control of the Senate has slipped out of reach.


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 6, 2012)

Final guesses?


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## decker (Nov 6, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> Final guesses?


my gut instict at the moment is romney going to sadly sneak it. i think i made my feeing finally this morning when i saw early vote turn out stuff here 
https://twitter.com/Redistrict

basically obama early vote not big enough in my view to overcome the gop turn out today. I just sense gop turnout amongst white males and others will prove too much in states like ohio and pa

i might be wrong but i have a feeing romney going to win tonight. not by a landslide but he will win.

I hope i have egg on my face but we see.


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 6, 2012)

The polling aggregates are converging on about 303 or so for Obama, but I seriously think they're being too optimistic.  I think it's 275-263 for Obama, or if Romney wins it's 273-265 for Romney.  It will come down to Wisconsin, where today we're looking at rain or possibly snow in parts of the State.


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## decker (Nov 6, 2012)

Dr.Traveler said:


> The polling aggregates are converging on about 303 or so for Obama, but I seriously think they're being too optimistic.  I think it's 275-263 for Obama, or if Romney wins it's 273-265 for Romney.  It will come down to Wisconsin, where today we're looking at rain or possibly snow in parts of the State.


that bad for obama if it snows as low turn out better for romney as his more commited supporters will come out

personally though think it ohio that decides it unless romney wins pa and then pa will decide it

my guy is romney will win it by 10 to 12 collage votes but we see. i hope im, wrong


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## Rinata (Nov 6, 2012)

Obama    277

Romney  191


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## CrusaderFrank (Nov 6, 2012)

How many electoral votes in the other 7 states?


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## CrusaderFrank (Nov 6, 2012)

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1TxiVhrkZA]Prediction for the Fight - YouTube[/ame]


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## Rinata (Nov 6, 2012)

CrusaderFrank said:


> How many electoral votes in the other 7 states?



Oh, yeah. There are supposed to be 538. Guess I'll never be another Chuck Todd!! 

Okay, I'll try this:

Obama     299

Romney   239

I don't think President Obama will go over 299 but I hope I'm wrong!!!


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## Uncensored2008 (Nov 6, 2012)

Rinata said:


> Oh, yeah. There are supposed to be 538. Guess I'll never be another Chuck Todd!!
> 
> Okay, I'll try this:
> 
> ...



You know, just tossing out numbers because you think Obama is god only furthers the perception that you are an unthinking doofus.

The rest of us base our numbers on specific states. 

Particularly; Romney will take Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Nevada.

This will result in 284 for Romney, and 252 for Obama. Not because I'm a mindless sycophant, but because that's what the states add up to.


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## Rinata (Nov 6, 2012)

Uncensored2008 said:


> Rinata said:
> 
> 
> > Oh, yeah. There are supposed to be 538. Guess I'll never be another Chuck Todd!!
> ...



Why don't you just go play on the freeeway?? You are nothing but a mean-spirited psychopath. Did you even bother to ask what happened?? No, you make your stupid assumptions because you think you're the greatest thing since sliced bread. Trust me, you're not.

I wll never again make the mistake of talking to you like you are human. You're not. Dracula had more human feelings than you do. You are one of the creepiest bat crap crazies on this site and getting creepier all the time. Drop dead, you ass hole.


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## auditor0007 (Nov 6, 2012)

Zander said:


> auditor0007 said:
> 
> 
> > Oddball said:
> ...



Only because you are such an ass, I'm sending you a good dose of morphine to help ease the pain.


----------



## auditor0007 (Nov 6, 2012)

Zander said:


> I predict that we will know the winner within moments of the west coast polls closing....



That's about the only thing you have been correct on.


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## geauxtohell (Nov 7, 2012)

Guess I wasn't too far off.


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## Dr.Traveler (Nov 7, 2012)

I was way off.  Wow.  Did not see a near collapse of Romney in the electoral college.


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## candycorn (Sep 9, 2016)

Uncensored2008 said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> > Nate Silver.. He's a one hit wonder- he blew it in 2010 and he's doing it again this time. He's only gotten one election right- Obama in '08.... Big F'n Deal - everyone saw that train coming...it's nothing magical.  You do know that he's only been around for 4 years, right?
> ...



You were hanging your hate errr hat on Ben-gotcha e-mails 4 years ago too.

too
damn
funny


----------



## candycorn (Sep 9, 2016)

Uncensored2008 said:


> Dr.Traveler said:
> 
> 
> > Uncensored2008 said:
> ...



Wisconsin?  wasn’t that where one time Republican Paul Ryan was from?


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## Uncensored2008 (Sep 9, 2016)

candycorn said:


> You were hanging your hate errr hat on Ben-gotcha e-mails 4 years ago too.
> 
> too
> damn
> funny



Think Candy Crowley will rescue you again? 

Matt Lauer didn't come through for the party....


----------



## candycorn (Sep 9, 2016)

Uncensored2008 said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > You were hanging your hate errr hat on Ben-gotcha e-mails 4 years ago too.
> ...



Want some cheese with that whine of yours?


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 9, 2016)

Uncensored2008 said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > You were hanging your hate errr hat on Ben-gotcha e-mails 4 years ago too.
> ...


Trump will lose by at least as big a margin as Romney did. Possibly significantly larger. Looking back over the landslide predictions of the 'Conservatives' this year is definately deju vu all over again.


----------

