# What is happening in Kazakhstan?



## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 12, 2022)

Little is known yet about the real forces that were behind the recent violence. The situation seems to have stabilized for now, and there are reports that the several thousand Russian and CSTO forces will soon be withdrawn. Let us hope so. If even only a few thousand Russian troops remain too long, or are too obvious in everyday life, serious problems down the road may emerge in relations between Kazakhs and the large Russian minority population.

That Russian population is today around 19% of the total, less than half what it was just before the USSR collapsed. We are talking of some 3.5 million Russians out of about 19 million total. Even after 30 years of independence, and despite resentment from some Kazakhs, the Russian language still plays a crucial role in higher education and society as a whole. There are other minorities as well, at least partly because this area was where many suspect populations and individuals were sent in Stalinist times.

The arrest of the old security director on high treason charges, and other reports too, strongly indicate that a power struggle at the top opened the door to different forces from below. The Russian role, the American role, the role of criminal and tribal elements, the degree of repressed Kazakh / Russian conflict, the role if any of religion, these are all still unclear.

Kazakhstan is the size of West Europe, has a small population density and tremendous oil & gas resources. Hence there are immense temptations for elite corruption, as in Saudi Arabia, Libya and similar oil-producing countries.

We need to understand that the tiny civic freedom groups there, mostly underground, were NOT leading the struggle, and were evidently as surprised as others by its sudden outbreak and ferociousness.

The standard Western psychological profile of “imperial” Russians — applied to the recent Kazakhstan events — is misleading and obscures much. Kazakhs were a nomadic people who were first partly Russified and then transformed by their Soviet experience — not entirely for the worse. The “new” Kazakhstan that arose after independence eventually brought more wealth and much more inequality than existed under the final decades of the USSR. There are real conflicting geopolitical interests here, tremendous economic  and social differences, as well as deep corruption. Though there is much hatred for rich and corrupt ruling groups in society, it is still far from clear that the recent violence inaugurated the beginning of any future “revolution against authoritarianism.”

Russia, not wanting any more “color revolutions” on its periphery, naturally made itself available to prop up the recently established Kazakh governing administration, suddenly faced with this unexpected and violent uprising. This was no Soviet “invasion” or “occupation” however. There are not enough Russians left for the political situation to resemble China’s Xinjiang. The Kazakhs — like the Uighurs a Turkic-speaking people —  are mostly Muslims, but have never been religious fanatics. Still, their nationalist pride is growing.

Splits among Kazakh’s own kleptocratic factions in the country’s domestic ruling class, and in its security forces, may have  precipitated the violence. But what lies deeper is unclear. Was there any role of “foreign influencers” in bribing certain factions to take action? Was everything spontaneous? We may never know. We do not even know if there are any “domestic oligarchs” or political factions genuinely interested in bringing democracy to the country.

It will be interesting to see if the great Western oil and commercial interests, like Chevron, that have been allowed in recent decades to grow dramatically and now have huge sums invested there, will continue to be welcome. We shouldn’t assume that the West really has the best interests of the people of Kazakhstan in mind, anymore than our corporations and military have had the real interests of the people of the Middle East in mind. The best future for the people of landlocked Kazakhstan will almost certainly require careful balancing of trade and relations with Russia, China and the West.


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## Gabe Lackmann (Jan 12, 2022)

CIA, and George Sorros are what is 'happening' in Kazakhstan. 

More color revolution bullshit.

More western destabilization.

Same shit, different place. 

Wash, rinse, repeat.


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 12, 2022)

Do you have *any*  evidence to back up your statements above?


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## JGalt (Jan 12, 2022)

Who fuckin' cares? Not my circus, not my monkey.


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## Donald H (Jan 12, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Little is known yet about the real forces that were behind the recent violence. The situation seems to have stabilized for now, and there are reports that the several thousand Russian and CSTO forces will soon be withdrawn. Let us hope so. If even only a few thousand Russian troops remain too long, or are too obvious in everyday life, serious problems down the road may emerge in relations between Kazakhs and the large Russian minority population.
> 
> That Russian population is today around 19% of the total, less than half what it was just before the USSR collapsed. We are talking of some 3.5 million Russians out of about 19 million total. Even after 30 years of independence, and despite resentment from some Kazakhs, the Russian language still plays a crucial role in higher education and society as a whole. There are other minorities as well, at least partly because this area was where many suspect populations and individuals were sent in Stalinist times.
> 
> ...


The oil resources are a huge factor Tom, but there is another overriding factor that needs to be mentioned. *America is in a life or death struggle against both Russia and China for world supremacy, and thus the capture of the world's wealth of resources. * 
That is the overriding reason why there are ongoing struggles in both Kazahkstand and the Ukraine. Russia's chances of retaining it's world power status are over if the US can wrestle away Kazahkstan from the Russian fold, and also the Ukraine to a slightly lesser degree.

The two sides have established the necessary talking point. America must convince all interested parties that it is defending both countries from Russia. (that's developing now in Kazahkstan)

The Russian must convince the same parties that it's protecting against US expansion, under the Nato flag.

And of course America's advantage is in the power it has over Russia's economy, as America attempts to gather sympathy for more and more crippling sanctions against Russia.

If Russia has an ace or two in the hole, it is in Putin's/Russia's resolve, and also the possibility that their chances of a strong military (and economic) alliance with China and the various countries that choose to side against the US.

Your narrative above tells the story adequately well, with only the exception I've explained. Of which I am assuming you are in agreement with.


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## Gabe Lackmann (Jan 12, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Do you have *any*  evidence to back up your statements above?



Other than pattern recognition?

Not directly. 

The flame is still hot. 

Rest assured that in the following six months volumes will be released. 

Same shit different nation. 

Come on dude...do you actually think all of this shit surrrrrrounding Russia lately is fucking organic?


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## Donald H (Jan 12, 2022)

Gabe Lackmann said:


> CIA, and George Sorros are what is 'happening' in Kazakhstan.
> 
> More color revolution bullshit.
> 
> ...


(my bold)
There's some truth in what you have said but your presentation hurts your position.

While Tom and I are appealing to a much more discriminating faction.


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## Donald H (Jan 12, 2022)

Gabe Lackmann said:


> Other than pattern recognition?
> 
> Not directly.
> 
> ...


Then on the other hand, this one is going to be effective with those who aren't already propagandized into swallowing the Russia hating and the perception that it's all just Russia's fault. 
Tom's OP was quite balanced and so now we have to hear where he's trying to go with this?


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## shoshi (Jan 12, 2022)




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## shoshi (Jan 12, 2022)




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## shoshi (Jan 12, 2022)

It was about a fuel crisis and the protests became a coup attempt or so says the Khazak President.


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## Gabe Lackmann (Jan 12, 2022)

Donald H said:


> (my bold)
> There's some truth in what you have said but your presentation hurts your position.
> 
> While Tom and I are appealing to a much more discriminating faction.


Lord Fauntleroy.

My intent, though rough, is sincere. 

I am but the progeny of a poor burlap monger.

When I was four our ox was stolen and I was forced to labor in it's stead.  

These things cause one to go, a bit, sour.

However I can assure you that, though humble there is always food on thine table, and I never drink on the lord's day.

I prithee the kind understanding of your grace.

Perhaps I can powder your wig?

(gesticulates)


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## Donald H (Jan 12, 2022)

Gabe Lackmann said:


> Lord Fauntleroy.
> 
> My intent, though rough, is sincere.
> 
> ...


Excellent! I can completely understand your frustration now that you've said more. And besides, it probably makes little difference on how the case is presented here.

One thing I've noticed though is the curious way Tom Payne has of presenting well written OP narrative, but then usually disappears before getting into any kind of detailed discussion.

Do however stick around to make your case. Maybe a little bit more clearly directed against Tom's case could be a good strategy.

However, note too that Tom got in a case against China by promoting the idea that the Uighurs aren't Muslim terrorists. Quite like a professional, wouldn't you think?


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 12, 2022)

My OP is not meant to prove anything or make grandiose arguments. I have been researching a bit the issue and would like to hear anybody else’s _informed_  opinions.

Most Westerners understandably haven’t much information about this part of the world. It is obvious (to me anyway) that most people who write here just try to shoe-horn the news into their already set views, mostly reflecting prejudices for or against Putin, U.S. imperialism, or even … George Soros.

Frankly, that seems to me worse than useless.


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## The Sage of Main Street (Jan 12, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> the great Western oil and commercial interests, like Chevron, that have been allowed in recent decades to grow dramatically and now have huge sums invested there, will continue to be welcome. We shouldn’t assume that the West really has the best interests of the people of Kazakhstan in mind, anymore than our corporations and military have had the real interests of the people of the Middle East in mind. The best future for the people of landlocked Kazakhstan will almost certainly require careful balancing of trade and relations with Russia, China and the West.


*Evolution's Sore Losers*

Why should we care what is in the best interests of primitive and unproductive Muslim savages?


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 12, 2022)

JGalt said:


> Who fuckin' cares? Not my circus, not my monkey.


Nobody is asking you to care, or making you read my OP.
Please go troll somewhere else.

Frankly, I can’t imagine why anyone would care …
about you, your circus, or the monkey on your back.


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## Donald H (Jan 12, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> My OP is not meant to prove anything or make grandiose arguments. I have been researching a bit the issue and would like to hear anybody else’s _informed_  opinions.
> 
> Most Westerners understandably haven’t much information about this part of the world. It is obvious (to me anyway) that most people who write here just try to shoe-horn the news into their already set views, mostly reflecting prejudices for or against Putin, U.S. imperialism, or even … George Soros.
> 
> Frankly, that seems to me worse than useless.


Most Westerners don't care to know anything deeper than US propaganda Tom. And I don't think you've said anything of importance that departs from that propaganda. You even got in the party line on China and the Uighurs, and that suspicious of your effort to not suggest anything new.

Look Tom, the US has started about 40 wars of aggression since the end of WW2. Be honest and objective or you're only fooling the already indoctrinated.

Is there any possibility in your mind that it's the US goal to instigate trouble in Ukraine, Kazakhstand, and China? You didn't mention that possibility. 



> The Kazakhs — like the Uighurs a Turkic-speaking people — are mostly Muslims, but have never been religious fanatics.



Who told you that?


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 12, 2022)

Same to the trolling “ The Sage of Main Street. “

By the way, some of the protesters were skilled oil workers. Many were evidently ordinary workers legitimately furious with a dictatorship that enriches corrupt millionaire politicians and ignores their fundamental interests. Why do you assume they were all just “primitive and unproductive Muslim savages”?


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 12, 2022)

> Is there any possibility in your mind that it's the US goal to instigate trouble in Ukraine, Kazakhstand, and China? You didn't mention that possibility. — Donald H


This OP is not about Ukraine and China, where I have made my position clear many times.

As you should know by now, I am one of the fiercest opponents here of U.S. imperialism and of its destructive and adventurist wars abroad. I am an opponent of our “Security State” and its mistaken policies toward China and Russia. I am also an opponent of Russian and Chinese authoritarianism. Are you?

As for U.S. directly instigating the protests, I’ve found no sign of that — but of course it remains clear that Western NGOs were legally present in the country, even U.S. government financed ones. Most big U.S. oil corporations active there have been reasonably satisfied with the role of the old dictatorship over the last decades — which helped them earn big profits for the requisite bribes. The fact is that the new Russian capitalist oligarchs under Putin, like the corrupt Kazakh government connected oligarchs, like the U.S. oil companies, all have created the conditions that have led to the present explosion.

As for rising Kazakh Islamic jihadi sentiment, this is certainly possible, and is a big danger in nearby states like Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. I am interested in any reports about this. But many sources and researchers attest to the _relative_ absence of such sentiments among Kazakhs in the last 50 years. Here is a useful article about Kazakh life from around 2006:

Culture of Kazakhstan - history, people, traditions, women, beliefs, food, customs, family, social


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## Donald H (Jan 12, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Same to the trolling “ The Sage of Main Street. “
> Many were evidently ordinary workers legitimately furious with a dictatorship that enriches corrupt millionaire politicians and ignores their fundamental interests.



As is the case in America and it's form of greedy capitalism. All it takes is a foreign propaganda interest to put the dissatisfaction to work. Or in America's case, Trump to promise and then attempt to overthrow democracy when he fails to procure the opportunity. 

This is about outside foreign interference that is opposed to Russia's interests, as is the case in Ukraine  and so many more past and present experiences. Lackman made the point in a cruder way..



> Come on dude...do you actually think all of this shit surrrrrrounding Russia lately is fucking organic?



I'll add China.


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## Siberian (Jan 12, 2022)

we


Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Little is known yet about the real forces that were behind the recent violence. The situation seems to have stabilized for now, and there are reports that the several thousand Russian and CSTO forces will soon be withdrawn. Let us hope so. If even only a few thousand Russian troops remain too long, or are too obvious in everyday life, serious problems down the road may emerge in relations between Kazakhs and the large Russian minority population.
> 
> That Russian population is today around 19% of the total, less than half what it was just before the USSR collapsed. We are talking of some 3.5 million Russians out of about 19 million total. Even after 30 years of independence, and despite resentment from some Kazakhs, the Russian language still plays a crucial role in higher education and society as a whole. There are other minorities as well, at least partly because this area was where many suspect populations and individuals were sent in Stalinist times.
> 
> ...


Well, Tom, an excellent article! 
When you really want it, you write not worse than I do  ...


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## JGalt (Jan 12, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Nobody is asking you to care, or making you read my OP.
> Please go troll somewhere else.
> 
> Frankly, I can’t imagine why anyone would care …
> about you, your circus, or the monkey on your back.



So why do you care? Is this something that affects you directly? Do you have vested interests, family members, ties to, or are somehow involved in a country that most people couldn't even pick out on a map?

Is this something that's going to influence my daily life today, tomorrow, or in the future?

And by "monkey on your back", is that supposed to be an insinuation that I have some sort of chemical dependency? I can assure you, I don't.


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## Natural Citizen (Jan 12, 2022)

One of the most alarming realities is that most of our elected drones have absolutely no clue whatsoever about world history. And certainly no idea whatsoever how deeply relationships between other nations historically go. Our so-called leaders are basically just plain dumb.

Anyway. Guess just wait an see if Nuland shows up with cookies again.

In the mean time, the dollar isn't very promising in the eyes of many nations these days. And no matter how catchy a space force sounds, other nations are just as, if not more so, technologically advanced than the west and you're just not gonna be able to interfere with international financial clearing infrastructure up there where it all happens, as in the past. A lot of nations have merged their satellite infrastructure over the last decade. It's not for nothing.


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## Donald H (Jan 12, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> This OP is not about Ukraine and China, where I have made my position clear many times.
> 
> *As you should know my now, I am one of the fiercest opponents here of U.S. imperialism and of of its destructive and adventurist wars abroad.* I am an opponent of our “Security State” and its mistaken policies toward China and Russia. I am also an opponent of Russian and Chinese authoritarianism. Are you?
> 
> As for U.S. directly instigating the protests, I’ve found no sign of that,


I don't know. And then my suspicions were validated when you got in your bit on the Uighurs. You made it about China too.  And you only vaguely hint about being opposed to US foreign policy, then state that the US isn't directly instigating the protests. 








						Kazakh president fails to quell protests, ex-Soviet states offer help
					

A Russia-led security alliance of ex-Soviet states will send peacekeeping forces to Kazakhstan, Armenia's prime minister said on Thursday, after the Kazakh president appealed for their help in quelling violent and deadly protests.




					www.reuters.com
				






> White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Russian accusations that the United States had instigated the unrest were false.



Now you've heard.


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## Siberian (Jan 12, 2022)

If I am  ot mistaken American way to define danger consists of weighing 2 factors - potential and willingness to use it.

You may doubt about American willingness but obviously the US has potential to blow up most post Soviet republics since it has been feeding numerous NGOs all over post-USSR space.

Then, willingness.

Kazakstan is less important than Ukraine, but much more capable of quick escalation into extremely bloody struggle.
We saw how Kazakhs immediately, without any demonstrations first, turned to bloodshed. 2 policemen were beheaded.

So, in Ukraine scale and bloodyness of the conflict will be less and will require smaller Russian force to police occupied territories.
If the US wants to tie Russia's hands prior US-China conflict, Kazakhstan is even a better choice than Ukraine.

Then, if the US wants to break Russian-China alliance, Chinese jealousity about growing Russian influence in Central Adia is what is required.

Then, Kazakhstan is the shortest way from China to Europe.
If the US blocks Chinese sea trade Kazakstan becomes absolutely vital for both sides.

If the US makes huge efforts to block Nord Stream-2 - will it be quietly ignoring all 3 factors I mentioned?


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## Donald H (Jan 12, 2022)

Siberian said:


> we
> 
> Well, Tom, an excellent article!
> When you really want it, you write not worse than I do  ...


Russia will be leaving peacekeepers or troop, however you want to frame it, behind. They will be actively watching for outside foreign interference.

And such honesty on US involvement and interests!


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## Siberian (Jan 12, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Same to the trolling “ The Sage of Main Street. “
> 
> By the way, some of the protesters were skilled oil workers. Many were evidently ordinary workers legitimately furious with a dictatorship that enriches corrupt millionaire politicians and ignores their fundamental interests. Why do you assume they were all just “primitive and unproductive Muslim savages”?


you mix stages, regions and clans. 

oil workers were in the very beginning, in the Western Kaxakhstan and of Junior Zhuz. 
While most vicious fights were taking place later, in the South and in the territory of Senior Zhuz.


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## Siberian (Jan 12, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Russia will be leaving peacekeepers or troop, however you want to frame it, behind. They will be actively watching for outside foreign interference.
> 
> And such honesty on US involvement and interests!


Russian troops will leave Kazakhstan within days. And I doubt Russian influence grew there except in setting a precedent of direct involvement. 

But newly appointed information minister of Kazakhstan is an open Russophobe, as well I presume Tokaev will have to appease Kazakh nationalists on account of Russians... 

So, despite Russian involvement and suppression of mass disorder I would say the provocation has partially reached its goal.


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 12, 2022)

Siberian said:


> Russian troops will leave Kazakhstan within days. And I doubt Russian influence grew there except in setting a precedent of direct involvement.
> 
> But newly appointed information minister of Kazakhstan is an open Russophobe, as well I presume Tokaev will have to appease Kazakh nationalists on account of Russians...
> 
> So, despite Russian involvement and suppression of mass disorder I would say the provocation has partially reached its goal.


Yes, this conclusion is possible. As I say, it is too early to draw many definite conclusions. Certainly it seems that more Russians will decide to leave Kazakhstan, where many lived for decades, even generations. That would certainly be tragic.


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## JohnDB (Jan 12, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Little is known yet about the real forces that were behind the recent violence. The situation seems to have stabilized for now, and there are reports that the several thousand Russian and CSTO forces will soon be withdrawn. Let us hope so. If even only a few thousand Russian troops remain too long, or are too obvious in everyday life, serious problems down the road may emerge in relations between Kazakhs and the large Russian minority population.
> 
> That Russian population is today around 19% of the total, less than half what it was just before the USSR collapsed. We are talking of some 3.5 million Russians out of about 19 million total. Even after 30 years of independence, and despite resentment from some Kazakhs, the Russian language still plays a crucial role in higher education and society as a whole. There are other minorities as well, at least partly because this area was where many suspect populations and individuals were sent in Stalinist times.
> 
> ...


You have completely ignored one key resource they have...

Uranium mining.  

About half of the uranium mined and used in nuclear power plants comes from Kazakhstan.  
The workers die in droves from lung cancer from the radon gas.  All the Vanadium is as well.  (The two elements are usually found together) 

And Ukraine generates surplus power it sells to the EU... even though they buy a lot of power in petroleum and natural gas.  

The two countries together work well...but Russian interference with corruption has poisoned both nations to where they are both unstable.


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 12, 2022)

Yes, there is uranium. I wasn’t trying to write an essay centered on Kazakh natural resources. I also didn’t mention other resources, pipeline issues, Chinese investments, or the importance of the “Belt & Road.”


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 12, 2022)

Donald H — You still haven’t answered me:

“I am also an opponent of Russian and Chinese authoritarianism. *Are you?*”


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## Siberian (Jan 13, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> You have completely ignored one key resource they have...
> 
> Uranium mining.
> 
> ...


Damn, John, there is not a single post of yours without some nonsense, you spread misinformation, better stick to expressing opinions, not what you consider to be facts.

Ukraine imports electricity from Russia and Belarus. Most Ukrainian nuclear power plants are reaching limits of safe exploitation, they are becoming new possible Chernobyls. And the fact that Ukraine is trying to fit American fuel cells into Russian made reactors, while the US nuclear industty is degrading and incapable of proper work, leads to numerous shut downs and decreases safety, of course.

Add to this that due to its Russophobia Ukraine is determined (but fails for several years, due to reality) to cut itself from Russian electric system and switch to European system, which is now energy unsufficient after Germany is destroying its nuclear and coal generation (to be checked though if it is permanently unsufficient, I just know the EU imports electricity from Russia).

Add to this that most coal is left in Donbass and Ukraine imposed blockade on it (or on itself, taking in account it cut coal supply to own power plants).

Plus with years of various provocations and all sorts of stealing, non-paying for delivered gas, monopolist raising of transit fees, political actions, sanctions against Russia - it is coming to Russia stopping gas transit in a couple of years.

I would say Ukraine led itself to planned energy catastrophe in a couple of years. Even if no new Chernobyl happens.

Ukraine is a disaster, and it is one of reasons Russia will not occupy it. Maybe just a litle bit, Historically Russian half of it... After Ukrain burns itself in hand made carastrophe


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## JohnDB (Jan 13, 2022)

Siberian said:


> Damn, John, there is not a single post of yours without some nonsense, you spread misinformation, better stick to expressing opinions, not what you consider to be facts.
> 
> Ukraine imports electricity from Russia and Belarus. Most Ukrainian nuclear power plants are reaching limits of safe exploitation, they are becoming new possible Chernobyls. And the fact that Ukraine is trying to fit American fuel cells into Russian made reactors, while the US nuclear industty is degrading and incapable of proper work, leads to numerous shut downs and decreases safety, of course.
> 
> ...


Westinghouse got the contract to sell Ukraine fuel rods for the power plants back in '19 I think...it's a 5 year contract.  

Ukraine's power plants and power grid do need repairs as they all do...and with the quarantines and supply chain interruptions I'm sure that everything is in rough shape.  

Nuclear power plants don't just blow up.  They are designed to shut down unless everything is in perfect order.  

Chernobyl happened because safeties were bypassed to run some worthless experiments...and an accident did happen.

  They aren't experimenting anymore.  

I'm not exactly a fan of nuclear power because of the brown sites they create.  But since they are running... keep them running.  Yes they will be due for a major overhaul soon. But not for another few years.  (After the Westinghouse contract) 

And Westinghouse is a major multi-national corporation...they provide electricity generation services to a LOT of countries... Including France where the spent fuel rods go to get reprocessed.  

Isolationism is not a good idea...ever.  Just ask Russia who acts like they are part of the world but really isn't.  They are increasingly isolating themselves from the rest of the world.  PRC went bankrupt because of it...now that they have joined in they need some lessons in how to behave appropriately.  

Russia is the last holdout.  They need the world but they don't want the world.  Apparently they would rather be the king of a trash dump than a lord of a fine house.  

Integrity and openness raises ALL Ships...and Russia doesn't have much of either.


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## Siberian (Jan 13, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> Westinghouse got the contract to sell Ukraine fuel rods for the power plants back in '19 I think...it's a 5 year contract.
> 
> Ukraine's power plants and power grid do need repairs as they all do...and with the quarantines and supply chain interruptions I'm sure that everything is in rough shape.
> 
> ...


isn't Westinghouse a bankrupt, and which has degraded to inability to build reactors? 

Ukrainian deal is a mockery, it will not be fulfilled


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## rupol2000 (Jan 13, 2022)

Siberian said:


> Ukraine imports electricity from Russia and Belarus


This is an economically illiterate tendentious judgment. All countries import, the question is how much. The balance there is shifted towards exports.









						У кого Украина покупает электроэнергию и кому продает: перечень стран — Finance.ua
					

За 2021 год Украина импортировала до 1 миллиарда киловатт в час,...




					news.finance.ua


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## rupol2000 (Jan 13, 2022)

By the way, Belarus is the economic ballast of Russia. They are mainly engaged in re-gluing labels. they buy Russian raw materials at very preferential prices, but it is not clear why these indulgences are. In addition, a significant part of the Belarusian goods is a very low-quality counterfeit.


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## rupol2000 (Jan 13, 2022)

If we compare the energy system of Belarus and Ukraine, the comparison will clearly be not in favor of Belarus. There are about 10 hydroelectric power stations on the Dnieper alone in Ukraine, there is a powerful nuclear power industry, a developed coal industry, and many thermal power plants tied to metallurgical production. Without a doubt, this is an energy giant.


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## Siberian (Jan 13, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> Westinghouse got the contract to sell Ukraine fuel rods for the power plants back in '19 I think...it's a 5 year contract.
> 
> Ukraine's power plants and power grid do need repairs as they all do...and with the quarantines and supply chain interruptions I'm sure that everything is in rough shape.
> 
> ...


John, how many reactors have been built by Westinghouse in last 40 years?  
Does Westinghouse has nessessary expertise at all?


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## Siberian (Jan 13, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> If we compare the energy system of Belarus and Ukraine, the comparison will clearly be not in favor of Belarus. There are about 10 hydroelectric power stations on the Dnieper alone in Ukraine, there is a powerful nuclear power industry, a developed coal industry, and many thermal power plants tied to metallurgical production. Without a doubt, this is an energy giant.



USSR/Russia provided you with big legacy in electric power production, which you are successfully losing. 
in 5-10 years your nuclear plants will be nuclear time bombs.


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## rupol2000 (Jan 13, 2022)

*For comparison, Belarus produces less than 40 billion kWh per year, Ukraine up to 200 billion. At the same time, about 100% of the electricity industry in Belarus runs on Russian fuel, and the Ukrainian electricity industry is independent.*


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 13, 2022)

Guys, can we try to keep this discussion focused on Kazakhstan issues?


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## Siberian (Jan 13, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Guys, can we try to keep this discussion focused on Kazakhstan issues?


isn't it over for  a while? 
what is left to be said?


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## Donald H (Jan 13, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Donald H — You still haven’t answered me:
> 
> “I am also an opponent of Russian and Chinese authoritarianism. *Are you?*”


I think you might be better than that Tom. This is the sort of trash talk one would expect from politichicy.

It's a loaded question Tom, because it can't be answered without examples of what an American would be calling 'authoritarianism.

So I can answer in the generic sense with a qualified yes, as it applies to any country's government.

As the question applies to China for instance, you could be asking if I'm opposed to how China has had to deal with the Uighur Islamic terrorists. Or as it may apply to Russia, it could be referring to how Russia is forced to deal with US/Nato/Ukraine infringement on Russia's borders

As to how it applies to America, you would have to choose one of your wars for example, and then I would be able to answer you on there being any authoritarian component to discuss. 

You've done some homework on the Kazakhstan situation but have you referenced any sites that make the accusation that Americans are involved in promoting violence. Your opening narrative didn't seem to include any possible explanations that wouldn't suit the US/Nato agenda. That's the reason I spoke up about it.


I wouldn't expect that any Americans will be caught and arrested for inciting violence. That's the sort of activity that's carried out covertly behind the scenes with prisoner swaps.


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 13, 2022)

Most people are still seeing things only from a Western point of view centering on malevolent Russian intentions, or from the mirror image view of naive “anti-imperialists” and Russian nationalists that everything is caused by the CIA.

This latter perspective is often — crudely — shared by Trump fanatics who love Putin and want to blame everything on “Biden’s CIA,” which they absurdly accuse, like Biden, of working for XiJinping, George Soros … or whatever.

Here is an intelligent article by an experienced British ex-Ambassador rejecting these simple-minded perspectives:
What Kazakhstan Isn't - Craig Murray

And here is an interesting article from _Aljazeera_  on the role of clan networks & nepotism. It also implies that this vicious rivalry will continue in the halls of power:

*“It all looks like The Game of Thrones.”*
Can centuries-old clan rivalry explain the crisis in Kazakhstan?


----------



## Donald H (Jan 13, 2022)

Siberian said:


> Russian troops will leave Kazakhstan within days. And I doubt Russian influence grew there except in setting a precedent of direct involvement.
> 
> But newly appointed information minister of Kazakhstan is an open Russophobe, as well I presume Tokaev will have to appease Kazakh nationalists on account of Russians...
> 
> So, despite Russian involvement and suppression of mass disorder I would say the provocation has partially reached its goal.


I would suggest that Russia will withdraw the troops in the same way America withdraws from a country. Not ever entirely, but perhaps sold to the media as such.

I don't get your remark on provocation partially reaching it's goal? Whose provocation?


----------



## Donald H (Jan 13, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Most people are still seeing things only from a Western point of view centering on malevolent Russian intentions, or from the mirror image view of naive “anti-imperialists” and Russian nationalists that everything is caused by the CIA.
> 
> This latter perspective is often — crudely — shared by Trump fanatics who love Putin and want to blame everything on “Biden’s CIA,” which they absurdly accuse, like Biden, of working for XiJinping, George Soros … or whatever.
> 
> ...


Craig Murray's talking points: LPG subsidies disappearing and causing protests on the streets. Let's accept that as being true, and then suggest that outside influence comes in to promote unrest. It's an explanation that works for any situation of US/Nato involvement on borders adjoining Russia. The only factor that changes is the LPG.

Then Craig Murray's second talking point is: 


> Kazakhstan is an authoritarian dictatorship with extreme divisions in wealth and power between the ruling class – often still the old Soviet nomenklatura and their families



That's a talking point that will always be used in similar situations but it is applicable to other than dictatorships. Although, a popular people's choice government can be accused to the same; even in a democracy. What is the applicable degree of 'income inequality' in Kazakhstan as compared to America?

The best answer I have for that question is on whether or not there has been a coup attempt in the country in question, and the outcome of the coup attempt.

Cuba, America, Kazakhstan, or Venezuela may serve as examples of unrest. And they all serve as examples of outside interference to some extent. 

I didn't read past that because I assume our plates are full enough with that, and no window dressing is going to change anything.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 13, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Guys, can we try to keep this discussion focused on Kazakhstan issues?


If that's what you desire Tom, you'll have to post worthwhile discussion threads in the CDZ. There is no moderator attempts to control elsewhere, and I assume that it's too far off track for them to even try. If not the CDZ then the best is to just ignore the spamming.


----------



## The Sage of Main Street (Jan 13, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Same to the trolling “ The Sage of Main Street. “
> 
> By the way, some of the protesters were skilled oil workers. Many were evidently ordinary workers legitimately furious with a dictatorship that enriches corrupt millionaire politicians and ignores their fundamental interests. Why do you assume they were all just “primitive and unproductive Muslim savages”?


*Boratphilia*

I'd rather be a troll than a trollop slutting up to our Globalist race-treason regime.


----------



## The Sage of Main Street (Jan 13, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> Westinghouse got the contract to sell Ukraine fuel rods for the power plants back in '19 I think...it's a 5 year contract.
> 
> Ukraine's power plants and power grid do need repairs as they all do...and with the quarantines and supply chain interruptions I'm sure that everything is in rough shape.
> 
> ...


*As Our Decadentocracy Falls off Its Tower, It Grabs for a Goat's Horns on Its Way Down*

Like they did with the Jews, the West's ruling class is trying to make Russia a scapegoat for their own failed rule.  Choosing the New Cold War option for his foreign-policy agenda, Bush appointed a narrow-minded Russian expert, who knew nothing about Islamic jihad, as his National Security Advisor.  He occupied Afghanistan as an outpost against Russia and its allies, using the War on Terror as an opportunity to re-start the Cold War with troops ready and close.

Strangling and minimizing a non-existent Russian threat has been the goal of American policy ever since Bush's Daddy's regime.  A gullible Yeltsin, not understanding that the exact opposite of Communism is also a disaster, listened to American-led World Bank advisors and instituted its unbridled _laissez-faire _fantasies, which immediately turned Russia's promising economy into a kleptocracy.  The advice from our theorizing clowns was that the market would automatically get rid of any corrupt corporate bosses.


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 13, 2022)

The Sage of Main Street said:


> *As Our Decadentocracy Falls off Its Tower, It Grabs for a Goat's Horns on Its Way Down*
> 
> Like they did with the Jews, the West's ruling class is trying to make Russia a scapegoat for their own failed rule.  Choosing the New Cold War option for his foreign-policy agenda, Bush appointed a narrow-minded Russian expert, who knew nothing about Islamic jihad, as his National Security Advisor.  He occupied Afghanistan as an outpost against Russia and its allies, using the War on Terror as an opportunity to re-start the Cold War with troops ready and close.
> 
> Strangling and minimizing a non-existent Russian threat has been the goal of American policy ever since Bush's Daddy's regime.  A gullible Yeltsin, not understanding that the exact opposite of Communism is also a disaster, listened to American-led World Bank advisors and instituted its unbridled _laissez-faire _fantasies, which immediately turned Russia's promising economy into a kleptocracy.  The advice from our theorizing clowns was that the market would automatically get rid of any corrupt corporate bosses.


Everyone has been lining their pockets by the double handfuls...Biden through his son Hunter is no exception to that rule.  
And when Trump told Ukraine that if they discovered grounds to prosecute Biden's son Hunter(they did for all of his co-workers) that America wouldn't hold it against them. And then the other political party in America used that conversation as grounds to put Trump on trial for misconduct.  (He was giving them financial aide based on meeting certain criteria...but was basically saying that the criteria mattered and didn't have any other strings attached)

Yeah...it's been a real shit show.  Too many people doing nothing but corruption and political games.


----------



## ESay (Jan 13, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Guys, can we try to keep this discussion focused on Kazakhstan issues?


What can be discussed about that? It seems the main reason of this insurrection was a struggle between various groups of Kazakh elite. Some people wanted Nazarbaev and his clan to give their share of power and wealth to others. There will be some reshaping inside these elites and their influence.


----------



## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 13, 2022)

The Sage of Main Street said:


> *Boratphilia*
> 
> I'd rather be a troll than a trollop …


You needn’t choose, Borat ….


----------



## Siberian (Jan 13, 2022)

Donald H said:


> If that's what you desire Tom, you'll have to post worthwhile discussion threads in the CDZ. There is no moderator attempts to control elsewhere, and I assume that it's too far off track for them to even try. If not the CDZ then the best is to just ignore the spamming.


sorry, guys, but your flirting with each other via demonstrating your erudition may not be as much exciting for the rest of posters,  because your most brilliant discoveries are rather a common knowledge for former Soviet citizens.

personally for me, you could really attract my attention or involve in discussion if you make a good forecast, but not just summarize other articles post-factum.

but I don't mind if you go on with Kazakhstan related spam while we discuss the only topic which matters now - Ukraine and its future collapse 

p. s. Kazakhstan revolution ends, Russian troops are withrawing, now things go under the carpet for a while and some time is needed to come back to this topic again.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 13, 2022)

Donald H said:


> I would suggest that Russia will withdraw the troops in the same way America withdraws from a country. Not ever entirely, but perhaps sold to the media as such.
> 
> I don't get your remark on provocation partially reaching it's goal? Whose provocation?


Russisn troops are being withdrawn, all 3000 of them (including troops from other ОДКБ  countries). There will be zero military presence soon. And what for to be there militarily, could you propose a reason?  

Whoever was involved in events reached their goals at leastcpartially. 

Actually, it is a strange situation in which everybody wins. Maybe just some - right now, some - in longer perspective. No losers, except Nazarbaev personally, but even his clan seems not to be overthrown, his nephew stays in power, according to last news. Which are still to be confirmed. 
As I said, dust must settle first to come back to this topic anew.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 13, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> This is an economically illiterate tendentious judgment. All countries import, the question is how much. The balance there is shifted towards exports.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yes, I heard it, Ukraine exported electricity in summer burning winter storage of coal and now is left with unsufficient gas and coal stocks...


----------



## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 13, 2022)

You are a chronic and irrepressible troll, Siberian!   

As a Russian you_ might_ have something useful to add, and sometimes do, but you really _prefer_ trolling, having gotten so used to it dealing with dumb Americans here and on other similar boards.

I agree this is not a very good place for a serious discussion. I usually reserve my best polemics for cynics and educated people like yourself, whatever their politics. You could say I “flirt” with them, but that’s really just silly. A more cynical view is that I’m entertaining _only myself_  by revealing the silly errors of others.

I’d like to believe that naive ideologues like Donald H — depending on his age and personality — can actually still learn _how to think_. Others can take my comments any way they want.

I mostly just try to be fair and uncover the unvarnished (often ugly) truth … about all sides.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 13, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> You are a chronic and irrepressible troll, Siberian!
> 
> As a Russian you_ might_ have something useful to add, and sometimes do, but you really _prefer_ trolling, having gotten so used to it dealing with dumb Americans here and on other similar boards.
> 
> ...


Sorry Tom but I've lost all confidence in you after that backhanded insult.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 13, 2022)

Siberian said:


> Russisn troops are being withdrawn, all 3000 of them (including troops from other ОДКБ  countries). There will be zero military presence soon. And what for to be there militarily, could you propose a reason?
> 
> Whoever was involved in events reached their goals at leastcpartially.
> 
> ...


Being there with a military presence ensures that Russia isn't upstaged by the US. Think of Syria, where US plans of conquest have been rendered impossible by the situation in which Russia is an invited guest. 
Same shit all over the ME and elsewhere.


----------



## Decus (Jan 13, 2022)

Several factors drove protestors into the streets in Kazakhstan:

Kazakhs are fed-up with corruption. Fed-up with the fact that elites enjoy the wealth of the country while the average person is left to deal with rising fuel and food prices and face limited opportunities.

Keep in mind that present day Kazakh president Tokayev was chosen by Nursultan Nazarbayev because he was a trusted ally.









						Kazakh ex-president to hand over ruling party leadership to successor
					

Kazakhstan's former president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, will hand over his role as the leader of the ruling Nur Otan party to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Nazarbayev's spokesman said on Tuesday.




					www.reuters.com
				




Initially Kazakhs were happy that Nursultan Nazarbayev agreed to step down as president and thought that the country might improve once he was gone. But Nursultan Nazarbayev didn't leave, he took the role as head of Kazakhstan's Security Council (a position arguably more powerful than president).









						Kazakh leader removes veteran ex-president from key security post
					

Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said on Wednesday he had taken over as head of the powerful Security Council from veteran former leader Nursultan Nazarbayev and promised to respond with "maximum toughness" to fuel price protests.




					www.reuters.com
				




He and his family are reported to have stolen billions from the country.

"_Some of the protesters’ complaints are fully justified. The Kazakh legislature is largely a fig leaf for what is in essence a dictatorship. *Corruption is endemic*. The wealth of former president *Nursultan Nazarbayev’s family, the ex-Soviet stooge who ruled Kazakhstan for twenty-nine years until 2021, is likely to be in the tens of billions*_."









						What’s happening in Kazakhstan?
					

The wealth of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s family, the ex-Soviet stooge who ruled Kazakhstan until 2021, is likely to be in the tens of billions




					spectatorworld.com
				




.


----------



## Decus (Jan 13, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Being there with a military presence ensures that Russia isn't upstaged by the US. Think of Syria, where US plans of conquest have been rendered impossible by the situation in which Russia is an invited guest.
> Same shit all over the ME and elsewhere.



Russia carefully avoided contact with Kazakh protestors and were only there to pretend they still had some role to play in Kazakhstan. China is now the dominant player in Kazakhstan; buying oil companies there and investing billions of dollars in infrastructure projects that are all designed to allow China's dominant control of Kazakhstan's energy and mineral resources.

Should Russia try to assert itself in Kazakhstan the Chinese will send them packing.

"_The Chinese foreign minister said that China is willing to increase cooperation with Kazakhstan *in law enforcement and security departments*, boost bilateral cooperation in anti-interference, *safeguard the security of the political systems and governments of the two countries*, prevent and oppose any attempt of "color revolution," and jointly oppose the interference of any external forces_."





__





						China firmly supports Kazakhstan in maintaining stability, stopping violence: FM
					





					www.ecns.cn
				












						Tracing the Chinese Footprints in Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Industry
					

In Beijing’s pursuit of shifting its trade and energy dependencies from sea to land, Nur-Sultan is a necessary partner.



					thediplomat.com
				



.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 13, 2022)

Decus said:


> Russia carefully avoided contact with Kazakh protestors and were only there to pretend they still had some role to play in Kazakhstan. China is now the dominant player in Kazakhstan; buying oil companies there and investing billions of dollars in infrastructure projects that are all designed to allow China's dominant control of Kazakhstan's energy and mineral resources.
> 
> Should Russia try to assert itself in Kazakhstan the Chinese will send them packing.
> 
> ...


lol, if I remember correctly, Kazakstan became part of Russia voluntarily or semi-voluntarily due to being exterminated by Chinese..

I mean anti-Chinese paranoya in KazakhstN is bigger than anti_Rissian one in Baltic states.
and if Russian troops to ever stay in Kazakhstan it may be on Kazakh request to cointerbalance China.

of course there is Chinese growing influence in business, but it is exactly where greed of Kazakh elite contradicts to its own fears and popular mood.

generally, Kazakhstan is hardly to become Chinese client, it will rather become a Russian one, but mostly will try to play multi-vector game.

until it colapses, as other post-Soviet republics...


----------



## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 13, 2022)

> Russia carefully avoided contact with Kazakh protestors and were only there to pretend they still had some role to play in Kazakhstan. China is now the dominant player in Kazakhstan; buying oil companies there and investing billions of dollars in infrastructure projects that are all designed to allow China's dominant control of Kazakhstan's energy and mineral resources.


I don’t think there is any evidence that China is now “the dominant player in Kazakhstan,” though it certainly has growing economic influence and a deep desire to protect its Belt and Road plans. Like Russia, it is mostly interested in stability there.

The Kazakh leadership since independence has carefully tried to balance its trade with both economies (of course Russia started way ahead) and also with the West. It would be wise to continue to do so in my opinion.

It is yet to be seen whether the Kazakh leaders can restabilize their regime and avoid falling into deep fratricidal clan and factional conflict, or ethnic and religious conflict, let alone introduce reforms that allow the wealth produced by the new extractive industries to be shared more fairly among Kazakhstan’s citizens.

The competition between foreign economic powers in theory can help Kazakhstan get better deals benefiting the nation as a whole, but that very competition can also just increase bribery. The “curse of oil” is a real phenomenon, and here it’s not countered by a large middle or professional class or strong small business entrepreneurs. Kleptocracy under a slightly different ruling faction, and continuing thorough-going dictatorship, may easily win the day.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

as I see Western authors


Donald H said:


> Being there with a military presence ensures that Russia isn't upstaged by the US. Think of Syria, where US plans of conquest have been rendered impossible by the situation in which Russia is an invited guest.
> Same shit all over the ME and elsewhere.


how can 2500 Russian troops prevent anything? 
especially with Kazakhstan government not being a Russian puppet.
quite the contrary, CIA via Kazakh clans or they themselves can organize anti_Russian protests any moment, what is next for Russia, to suppress them?
it is the wet dream of the US, to drag Russia into resourse-expensive conflict on its border
there is no sense to keep insufficient number of troops with no control over the government, it will rather harm Russia-Kazakhstan relations.

Russia gained very little in this crisis


----------



## Decus (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> lol, if I remember correctly, Kazakstan became part of Russia voluntarily or semi-voluntarily due to being exterminated by Chinese..
> 
> I mean anti-Chinese paranoya in KazakhstN is bigger than anti_Rissian one in Baltic states.
> and if Russian troops to ever stay in Kazakhstan it may be on Kazakh request to cointerbalance China.
> ...



Like in Siberia China dictates the terms. 

Having invested so much in Kazakhstan China will not tolerate Russian interference in their acquired energy and mineral resources. Kazakhs don't like Russians or Chinese but China will not go away and this is a fact that Russia has accepted.

.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

Decus said:


> Like in Siberia China dictates the terms.
> 
> Having invested so much in Kazakhstan China will not tolerate Russian interference in their acquired energy and mineral resources. Kazakhs don't like Russians or Chinese but China will not go away and this is a fact that Russia has accepted.
> 
> .


like in Siberia? 
lol, for the whole post-Soviet period only 20 thousand Chinese were granted Russian citizenship and settled there. Or were granted citizenship at all, not in Siberia only, I don't remember exactly.

as well Chinese population in North China moves Southwards, the North is going to depopulate fast in coming years.

There is no Chinese danger to Russia, it is a wet dream of the US but it's in vain...

China cannot guarantee security of Kazakhstan, Russia can.
Chinese economic presence is not a problem.
in worst case scenario, if Kazakhstan collapses, Russia will take the North and let Chinese deal with islamists in the South.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

During Khrushchev's time, the USSR could repulse the Chinese threat; the modern Russian authorities do not have the political will to do so. Chinese criminals operate without paying attention to Russia, and Siberia is illegally colonized by China. All this is very sad.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> During Khrushchev's time, the USSR could repulse the Chinese threat; the modern Russian authorities do not have the political will to do so. Chinese criminals operate without paying attention to Russia, and Siberia is illegally colonized by China. All this is very sad.


there is no Chinese threat now.
it's all just myths spread by Western propaganda in an attempt to make a rift between Russia and China


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Chinese troops in Chelyabinsk!

Chelyabinsk is the west of Siberia! It's not just Siberia, it's Ural,  almost the European part of Russia. There are Chinese troops stationed there!


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> Chinese troops in Chelyabinsk!
> 
> Chelyabinsk is the west of Siberia! It's not just Siberia, it's Ural,  almost the European part of Russia. There are Chinese troops stationed there!


damn, Chinese are coming! 
it's time to throw myself out of the window. 
what was that American general's name?


----------



## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> as I see Western authors
> 
> how can 2500 Russian troops prevent anything?
> especially with Kazakhstan government not being a Russian puppet.


Not a puppet but sympathetic to  Russia.


Siberian said:


> quite the contrary, CIA via Kazakh clans or they themselves can organize anti_Russian protests any moment, what is next for Russia, to suppress them?


Undoubtedly anti-government protests will take place, on behalf of the US and it's claims of bringing democracy.


Siberian said:


> it is the wet dream of the US, to drag Russia into resourse-expensive conflict on its border


It could be a wet dream, as you suggest. Ukraine could be a wet dream too. I'm more concerned with Russia's resolve to stand their ground and that could lead to world war.


Siberian said:


> there is no sense to keep insufficient number of troops with no control over the government, it will rather harm Russia-Kazakhstan relations.


And as with US occupations, air power to back up the ground forces. Illegal occupation or invited guests?


Siberian said:


> Russia gained very little in this crisis


I don't think Russia is interested in territorial gains, as opposed to holding the lines.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

Decus said:


> Russia carefully avoided contact with Kazakh protestors and were only there to pretend they still had some role to play in Kazakhstan. China is now the dominant player in Kazakhstan; buying oil companies there and investing billions of dollars in infrastructure projects that are all designed to allow China's dominant control of Kazakhstan's energy and mineral resources.
> 
> Should Russia try to assert itself in Kazakhstan the Chinese will send them packing.


China and Russia are forming a cooperation alliance.


Decus said:


> "_The Chinese foreign minister said that China is willing to increase cooperation with Kazakhstan *in law enforcement and security departments*, boost bilateral cooperation in anti-interference, *safeguard the security of the political systems and governments of the two countries*, prevent and oppose any attempt of "color revolution," and jointly oppose the interference of any external forces_."


It's all in the meaning of external forces. Russia is an invited peacekeeping guest.


Decus said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


There are China's footprints throughout the world but not as an invading force.


Decus said:


> .


----------



## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

Decus said:


> Several factors drove protestors into the streets in Kazakhstan:
> 
> Kazakhs are fed-up with corruption. Fed-up with the fact that elites enjoy the wealth of the country while the average person is left to deal with rising fuel and food prices and face limited opportunities.
> 
> ...


When the people rise up in violent protest against government, it's an indication that government needs to make adjustments to it's ideology. This is no more true in Kazakhstan than it is true in America. 

And coincidentally, the reason for the people raising their voices is the same in both cases.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> I don’t think there is any evidence that China is now “the dominant player in Kazakhstan,” though it certainly has growing economic influence and a deep desire to protect its Belt and Road plans. Like Russia, it is mostly interested in stability there.
> 
> The Kazakh leadership since independence has carefully tried to balance its trade with both economies (of course Russia started way ahead) and also with the West. It would be wise to continue to do so in my opinion.
> 
> ...


You're still dancing around the main issue Tom. That is, competition between America and Russia/China to gain control over the resources of the ME, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, other Eurasian countries.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> damn, Chinese are coming!
> it's time to throw myself out of the window.
> what was that American general's name?


The time will come and they themselves will throw out of the windows if this continues.

The Uighurs, too, probably joked in their time. Their truth is not throw out of windows, but sold for organs.

By the way, in the video they say that the Chinese have annexed 2 islands that did not belong to them before.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

A must read for those interested in continuing this discussion:









						Brazil, Kazakhstan and the Grand Chess Board - BRASILWIRE
					

Like Brazil under Workers Party Governance, Kazakhstan has tried to maintain a balancing act by maintaining good relations with China, Russia, the US and Europe. Like Brazil under the PT, this isn't good enough for the US State Department by Marcelo Zero* Kazakhstan, a country of 2.7 million km2...




					www.brasilwire.com
				






> However, the US strategy seems to be to always try to destabilize all regimes that are friendly to Russia and China, even if they are not hostile to Washington.
> 
> If the US succeeds in putting a decisively pro-Washington regime in Kazakhstan that is hostile to Russia and China, as it did in Ukraine, Moscow’s strategy of uniting the former Soviet republics and China’s strategy of broadening its influence with the New Silk Road would be substantially compromised. There is a lot at stake.
> 
> Despite its remote chances of success, this bet by Washington reveals the degree of aggressiveness of US foreign policy, especially under the Biden administration.


----------



## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> You're still dancing around the main issue Tom. That is, competition between America and Russia/China to gain control over the resources of the ME, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, other Eurasian countries.


That at this moment is NOT the main issue. Not to me. Nor to Kazakhs. The main issue is what is best for the people in this part of the world — and another war between great powers, a  foreigners’ “struggle to gain control” of Kazakhstan’s resources, is definitely just about the LAST thing that is needed here!

The utterly corrupt family/clan/patronage network ruling the country up to this time was at least sufficiently unified to hold in check both Western and Russian or Chinese appetites to dominate the country, while allowing for economic development. THAT is the way things should remain in terms of ALL the great powers!

That is also the best guarantee for peace and domestic harmony and all around future development. The next priority is of course spreading the economic gains fairly, which certainly will require social/economic reforms and democratization of the political system.

If such changes can / must happen rapidly through “revolution” that would be fine with me. But given the real situation in the country this is *extremely* unlikely. There is at present no such revolutionary force in Kazakhstan. There is not even a genuinely democratic party. Such a force or party sure as hell will not be encouraged by ANY of the great contending powers!


----------



## ESay (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> It could be a wet dream, as you suggest. Ukraine could be a wet dream too. I'm more concerned with Russia's resolve to stand their ground and that could lead to world war


There won't be any world war. Stop falling to this silly Russian propaganda. Some compromise will be find concerning European security.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> However, the US strategy seems to be to always try to destabilize all regimes that are friendly to Russia and China, even if they are not hostile to Washington


no, now the US government is playing on the side of China, this is the left flank


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

ESay said:


> There won't be any world war. Stop falling to this silly Russian propaganda. Some compromise will be find concerning European security.


Russia vs USA? It's ridiculous.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> no, now the US government is playing on the side of China, this is the left flank


What are you talking about?


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> What are you talking about?


I'm talking about the left movement. Ultra-left China + left-wing US government = Great alliance. They have common goals: a world totalitarian state.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

ESay said:


> There won't be any world war. Stop falling to this silly Russian propaganda. Some compromise will be find concerning European security.


Hope you're right but I just don't see how the competing parties could keep it contained to regional conflicts between proxies. Russia has no proxy to sacrifice as I see it, and that means Russian troops will die at American hands. Or at Ukrainians hands and that can't be acceptable to Russia. 

None of the three leading contenders will accept military defeat and America would almost certainly have to keep it limited to a proxy war. The stage may be being set now to enlist proxy forces in Kazakhstan. I don't see that as being possible in Ukraine. 

Maybe America is stepping back from the Ukraine project, in favour of Kazakhstan being the much bitter prize. There's no bigger prize for all parties, but I suggest that Russia and China will cooperate and share the spoils if their side should win through other means than military.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> I'm talking about the left movement. Ultra-left China + left-wing US government = Great alliance. They have common goals: a world totalitarian state.


I no longer take you seriously on this topic.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> The stage may be being set now to enlist proxy forces in Kazakhstan.


lol.​
This would sound realistic for the Reagan 80s, for America of men, but not for today's America, which elected Lavrenty Beria 2 as president and allowed Barbie dolls to control combat units in the army.
You are hopelessly stuck in the past


----------



## ESay (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Hope you're right but I just don't see how the competing parties could keep it contained to regional conflicts between proxies. Russia has no proxy to sacrifice as I see it, and that means Russian troops will die at American hands. Or at Ukrainians hands and that can't be acceptable to Russia.
> 
> None of the three leading contenders will accept military defeat and America would almost certainly have to keep it limited to a proxy war. The stage may be being set now to enlist proxy forces in Kazakhstan. I don't see that as being possible in Ukraine.
> 
> Maybe America is stepping back from the Ukraine project, in favour of Kazakhstan being the much bitter prize. There's no bigger prize for all parties, but I suggest that Russia and China will cooperate and share the spoils if their side should win through other means than military.


Kazakhstan and Ukraine are two issues which don't coincide directly. Basically, the odds are higher that the Central Asian region will be the place of a struggle between Russia and China, rather than the US.

About the 'Ukraine project'. I think there will be some agreement establishing a buffer zone comprising of Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova and their neutrality.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> That at this moment is NOT the main issue. Not to me. Nor to Kazakhs. The main issue is what is best for the people in this part of the world — and another war between great powers, a  foreigners’ “struggle to gain control” of Kazakhstan’s resources, is definitely just about the LAST thing that is needed here!


Another war between great powers is not in the wishes of any of the major powers. We should all know by now that the great powers only meet through proxies. I'm sure you must understand what that means. The main issue to either you or the Kazakhs is irrelevant, being that they are pawns in the bigger game. The main issue is always *the outcome that will decide which of the major powers will own Kazakhstan.*


Tom Paine 1949 said:


> The utterly corrupt family/clan/patronage network ruling the country up to this time was at least sufficiently unified to hold in check both Western and Russian or Chinese appetites to dominate the country, while allowing for economic development. THAT is the way things should remain in terms of ALL the great powers!


You seem to be suggesting there will be no struggle for that country. I have to suggest that is rather naive Tom. But I think you must have read the Brasil link I posted because you're much more into the details now from the other perspective that was missing.


Tom Paine 1949 said:


> That is also the best guarantee for peace and domestic harmony and all around future development. The next priority is of course spreading the economic gains fairly, which certainly will require social/economic reforms and democratization of the political system.


Kazakhstan just sitting there for the foreseeable future, with now loyalties or ties to one of the competing sides?? Really?


Tom Paine 1949 said:


> If such changes can / must happen rapidly through “revolution” that would be fine with me. But given the real situation in the country this is *extremely* unlikely. There is at present no such revolutionary force in Kazakhstan. There is not even a genuinely democratic party. Such a force or party sure as hell will not be encouraged by ANY of the great contending powers!


If there is no revolution or revolutionary attempts originating out of protests, then the US hasn't set the stage adequately, and you would be right for a short while at least.

I at least have some respect for you talking points Tom, even though I don't accept most. Maybe you can withdraw your backhanded insult and start to consider mine?

There are very few opportunities for rational discussion here so let's not squander the little we are able to influence among the few.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

ESay said:


> Basically, the odds are higher that the Central Asian region will be the place of a struggle between Russia and China, rather than the US.



Why should China fight Russia if Russia is already giving everything away? The Chinese already consider the territory of Russia to be a continuation of the Celestial Empire, they do not care about some kind of struggle, they simply silently populate Siberia and the Urals, take their islands and expropriate resources. Siberian timber is transported from Siberia around the clock by freight trains.


----------



## ESay (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> Why should China fight Russia if Russia is already giving everything away? The Chinese already consider the territory of Russia to be a continuation of the Celestial Empire, they do not care about some kind of struggle, they simply silently populate Siberia and the Urals, take their islands and expropriate resources. Siberian timber is transported from Siberia around the clock by freight trains.


If you are implying that there will be a China-Finland border, then I don't believe in that. Russia will remain to be a strong regional player.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

ESay said:


> Kazakhstan and Ukraine are two issues which don't coincide directly. Basically, the odds are higher that the Central Asian region will be the place of a struggle between Russia and China, rather than the US.


You're asking me to accept that America isn't actively involved in a power move to acquire Kazakhstan. Incredible! You're calling checkmate instead of moving you first pawn.


ESay said:


> About the 'Ukraine project'. I think there will be some agreement establishing a buffer zone comprising of Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova and their neutrality.


Possibly, but America would be giving up gained ground of Ukraine loyalties to Russia. The reality of the situation is that America attempted a bridge too far with the Crimea, and should have known all along that Russia could never accept America's bid. America isn't likely to pull out of the game with less than it went in with! 

However, Kazakhstan could be the new front and Ukraine may be relinquished and be replaced for the much bigger prize. It's hard for me to say whether or not America can establish two active fronts together. 

There is absolutely no doubt that China wants and needs a safe presence in Kazakh, and America needs to deny China that. I see the best possibility of a strong China/Russia alliance in that country.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

According to the same scenario, Austria-Hungary was captured. At first, German colonists settled there, and then pan-Germanists came from Prussia and began to shout that the Danube  were originally German land.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

ESay said:


> If you are implying that there will be a China-Finland border, then I don't believe in that. Russia will remain to be a strong regional player.


As an appendage of Europe? Can independent players be export economies, especially raw materials? The currency board mechanism operates there, the central bank converts export earnings into assets of foreign governments. This is clearly not a sign of independent player politics.


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## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

ESay said:


> Basically, the odds are higher that the Central Asian region will be the place of a struggle between Russia and China, rather than the US.


Wouldn't that be in a wonderful make-believe world!
Better than jesus coming back but just as unlikely.

Neither China or Russia can ever afford to lock horns on any issue, now that America's might has been turned against both in deadly earnest!

But do expand on your theory! Where did you get it?


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

ESay By the way, the German ultra-lefts directly state that Germany should use Russian resources to defeat the United States
They don't have a fucking constitution yet, and the status of their eastern lands is not legally defined, but they already want to destroy the USA


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

By the way, the demands of the protesters contain a clause on the return of the 1993 constitution. And according to the current constitution of 1995, the president has supreme power there, and determines domestic and foreign policy. There is no such presidential power either in Russia or in the USA
In most democracies, the president is only the chief executive.


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Not a puppet but sympathetic to  Russia.
> 
> Undoubtedly anti-government protests will take place, on behalf of the US and it's claims of bringing democracy.
> 
> ...


Donald, with al respect to US milirary capability, it is lost in vain because your elite is so dumb to rely on force only.
This is the reason US methods work with weak ones only. if at all.
While Putin is a very, very caucious strategic chess player, he even did not take Ukraine in 2014 while he easily could. 80% of Ukrainian army in Crimea now serves as Russian military, don't you know? I mean they just shifted to Russian army, and in the rest of Ukraine I presume the rate would have been around 50% if Putin started to seize the rest of Ukraine.
It would have been an easy walk if he was brave enough, but he is very, very, extremely, extraordinarily cauvious.
I can't call him a coward after Crimea and Syria, but in most cases when  my personal and most Russians' blood is boiling demanding military action or any response - he retreats.

He plays only if success is guaranteed.

This is why, by the way, I think recent escalation with the US will end with your complete defeat.
He would have not started the game if he had not 10 aces in his sleeve.

So, coming back to Kazakhstan, situation there is 100 times more complex than in any of US interventions, which you successfully completely failed.

Russian military presence gives us nothing.
Russian troops will complete withdrawal within days.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> ually reserve my best polemics for cynics...





Tom Paine 1949 said:


> A more cynical view is that I’m entertaining _only myself_  by revealing the silly errors of others.
> 
> I’d like to believe that naive ideologues like Donald H — depending on his age and personality — can actually still learn _how to think_. Others can take my comments any way they want.



I have a strange feeling watching you call other people idealists  

but I hope we can have some fun here trying to catch each other being silly...


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> [directed at Rupol…] “I no longer take you seriously on this topic.”


That is very wise. The man is a raving lunatic.

By the way, earlier my intention was not to insult you. I did call you a “naive ideologue.” I confess I do think of you that way. I was — when much younger — somewhat similar. I’d like to think I’m a bit wiser now than back then. My remark about “learning to think” was probably also a reflection of meditating on how I feel now about my earlier self. Hope you realize I didn’t mean to hurt your feelings. I can be a bit too acid at times.


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## ESay (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> You're asking me to accept that America isn't actively involved in a power move to acquire Kazakhstan. Incredible! You're calling checkmate instead of moving you first pawn.
> 
> Possibly, but America would be giving up gained ground of Ukraine loyalties to Russia. The reality of the situation is that America attempted a bridge too far with the Crimea, and should have known all along that Russia could never accept America's bid. America isn't likely to pull out of the game with less than it went in with!
> 
> ...


I don't ask you anything. I just express my opinion, which can be right or wrong. I don't rule out at all that the recent violent protests in Kazakhstan were instigated by warring clans there, without foreign involvement. 

Ukraine isn't the main prize and was never intended to be. The US foreign policy is based on preparations to future global struggle with China, and American relations with Russia lie inside this matrix. 

I expect the US will agree to Russia preserving its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe in exchange of Russia' neutrality on the Far East.


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> That is very wise. The man is a raving lunatic.


For cattle, everyone seems crazy whose picture of the world does not correspond to the picture of their zombie brain. The same sheep shouted that those who reject scholasticism and do not believe in creation in 7 days are crazy.
These degenerates are specially selected by the authorities as a support of the left regime. This is where the cult of the holy fool comes from. Now the role of scholia has been taken over by schools and the media.
PS Fortunately, there are fewer such degenerates in the USA than in Europe.


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## ESay (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Wouldn't that be in a wonderful make-believe world!
> Better than jesus coming back but just as unlikely.
> 
> Neither China or Russia can ever afford to lock horns on any issue, now that America's might has been turned against both in deadly earnest!
> ...


Had you heard something about Kazakhstan and its neighbours in Central Asia before? Or you became an expert of this region since January?


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

Decus said:


> Several factors drove protestors into the streets in Kazakhstan:
> 
> Kazakhs are fed-up with corruption.




I am pretty much  fed up with this matra beind said in every post of every Western poster, including you, Tom.

It is very frequent in Western press, is taken for granted and copypasted by all of you without really thinking.

People very easily tolerate corription if their level of life keeps getting better, and Russia is a perfect example.
Navalny made a bet on it in his CIA-manufactured film about the palace of Putin and failed.

Of course it irritates and makes people angry, but in countries like Ukraine or Central Asia or Caucasus republics corruption is as much a part of life of everybody as breathing.

I bought a piece of land in Crimea and am going to live there when I retire, so I have to deal with local beaurocrats while I build my house. There is nothing more awful on Earth, population of Crimea is predominantly Russian but 30 years of Ukrainian yoke/influence has spoiled them so much that I get shocked every time I have to deal with local administration. Nothing works properly and without bribe, contrarily to Russia. I imagine what they have in proper Ukraine....

Anyway, it is not corruption which matters much, it is rather greed and lack of civilization. Rural Kazakhs mentally live in 18th century and view both Russians and Russified urban Kazakhs as rich targets, they envy the very urban way of living, culture. It is a complex factor.

With corruption playing a minor role...


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## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> Donald, with al respect to US milirary capability, it is lost in vain because your elite is so dumb to rely on force only.


Siberian, I'm a Canadian and not one who supports US aggression or any other country's aggression.


Siberian said:


> This is the reason US methods work with weak ones only. if at all.
> While Putin is a very, very caucious strategic chess player, he even did not take Ukraine in 2014 while he easily could. 80% of Ukrainian army in Crimea now serves as Russian military, don't you know? I mean they just shifted to Russian army, and in the rest of Ukraine I presume the rate would have been around 50% if Putin started to seize the rest of Ukraine.
> It would have been an easy walk if he was brave enough, but he is vcery, very, extremely, extraordinarily cauvious.
> I can't call him a coward after Crimea and Syria, but in most cases when  my personal and most Russians' blood is boiling demanding military action or response - he retreats.


Yeah, Putin doesn't want to invade Ukraine, but he will if it becomes necessary. If the US sends lethal weaponry to Ukraine and that costs Russian lives, he will have to invade. It can't be held back to a war of proxies.  So it's bullshit that America can't do anything of course, they can do that.


Siberian said:


> He plays only if success is guaranteed.
> 
> This is why, by the way, I think recent escalation with the US will end with your complete defeat.
> He would have not started the game if he had not 10 aces in his sleeve.


Maybe you'll change your tune with me now that you know I'm a Canadian and not a pro-war one. Think in terms of the US not winning the final battle against Russia/Putin but instead that Russia will never be defeated. Russia may have to turn to nuclear war.


Siberian said:


> So, coming back to Kazakhstan, situation there is 100 times more conplex than in any of US interventions, which you successfully completely failed.


I didn't fail. 
It may be complex, and I'm interested in hearing your explanations why.  But I see Kazakhstan as the biggest prize ever and the near certainty that the US will open up that front as it's primary objective. It literally has to in order to deprive both Russia and China.


Siberian said:


> Russian military presence gives us nothing.
> Russian troops will complete withdraeal within days.


I think that Putin will see the best strategy being the same successful strategy being used by Russia in Syria. So I expect that Russia will maintain a presense in Kazakhstan and bolster it with air superiority. Otherwise the US moves in and turns it into another Iraq.

Now get your head around the fact that I'm not an American, and then we can talk on a higher level.


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Hope you're right but I just don't see how the competing parties could keep it contained to regional conflicts between proxies. Russia has no proxy to sacrifice as I see it, and that means Russian troops will die at American hands. Or at Ukrainians hands and that can't be acceptable to Russia.
> 
> None of the three leading contenders will accept military defeat and America would almost certainly have to keep it limited to a proxy war. The stage may be being set now to enlist proxy forces in Kazakhstan. I don't see that as being possible in Ukraine.
> 
> Maybe America is stepping back from the Ukraine project, in favour of Kazakhstan being the much bitter prize. There's no bigger prize for all parties, but I suggest that Russia and China will cooperate and share the spoils if their side should win through other means than military.


Russia is not going to fight Ukraine, it is not going to spend resourses on American proxies, as the US hopes. 

I tend to thibk we are heading to direct US-Russia military confrontation. 
The US cannot afford a big scale war with Russia proir the war with China. 
So, now Putin can easilly start wars with Ametica from which the US will be eager to exit as fas as possibl.

Next I expect sone US sokdiers/advisors to be killed in Ukraine or Syria. 

Then probably a Carribean crisis-2.0.

Tbe US is in a trap, it has no good solution.


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## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

ESay said:


> Had you heard something about Kazakhstan and its neighbours in Central Asia before? Or you became an expert of this region since January?


Not Kazakhstand specifically, but not a new expert in the sense of the ME and countries bordering on Russia or close to bordering. 
But I've always been aware of Kazakhstan being the ultimate prize for America, but not envisioned by America to be considering possible.

Fwiw, I became interested and more informed in March 99 with the Kosovo war, which settled the point of America's intention to infringe on Russia's borders, instead of honouring an agreement.


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## The Sage of Main Street (Jan 14, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> You are a chronic and irrepressible troll, Siberian!
> 
> As a Russian you_ might_ have something useful to add, and sometimes do, but you really _prefer_ trolling, having gotten so used to it dealing with dumb Americans here and on other similar boards.
> 
> ...


*The University Is the Root of All Evil*

Like a typical professor, you feel entitled to grade all the other posters but, from your pompous podium, you believe no one has the right to grade you.


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> People very easily tolerate corription if their level of life keeps getting better, and Russia is a perfect example.


What???? Just a couple of months ago  in the small town Yegoryevsk near Moscow (population about 70 thousand people), during a search of the police chief of this town, an amount of 5 million dollars in cash was found, not counting the rest. CASH. Who could pay that kind of money in a small town where the average salary doesn't reach $500? What the hell are you saying? How is this possible? Do you have any idea the scale of this corruption?









						Fishki.net - Сайт хорошего настроения
					

Приколы, юмор, шутки, смешные фото и видео для хорошего настроения на развлекательном портале Fishki.net




					anews.com
				




PS Do you fucking understand that five million is a significant amount even for the Italian mafia?


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Siberian, I'm a Canadian and not one who supports US aggression or any other country's aggression.
> 
> Yeah, Putin doesn't want to invade Ukraine, but he will if it becomes necessary. If the US sends lethal weaponry to Ukraine and that costs Russian lives, he will have to invade. It can't be held back to a war of proxies.  So it's bullshit that America can't do anything of course, they can do that.
> 
> ...


if you are a Canadian then just replace "your" with "their", the rest of content is still valid.

In Syria there is war on the ground which makes Russian military presence nessessary and reasonable.
In Kazakhstan - it will be counterproductive.

Russia will intervene if course if Ukraine attacks Donbass, but most probably not with invasion on land, it will be just complete destruction of Ukrainian army and infrastructure by missiles and aireal bombardment.


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## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> Russia is not going to fight Ukraine, it is not going to spend resourses on American proxies, as the US hopes.
> 
> I tend to thibk we are heading to direct US-Russia military confrontation.


Now we're talking on the same wavelength! But initially I see big lethal arms shipments from America to Ukraine, and thus Russian military personnell losses. That will then force Putin's hand to take the Ukraine.


Siberian said:


> The US cannot afford a big scale war with Russia proir the war with China.


Oh, I have a hunch that it would be one war against both.


Siberian said:


> So, now Putin can easilly start wars with Ametica from which the US will be eager to exit as fas as possibl.
> 
> Next I expect sone US sokdiers/advisors to be killed in Ukraine or Syria.


Killing US soldiers in Ukraine must also be avoided at all costs. It must always be proxy fighting proxy. Or at least be painted by the media as such.


Siberian said:


> Then probably a Carribean crisis-2.0.
> 
> Tbe US is in a trap, it has no good solution.



I've been saying for months around here that China is setting up in Cuba and it makes sense that Russia will too, as well as in C.America and especially Venezuela.

I may not agree with all your proposals because i'm not pro for either side. Just trying to talk from an antiwar POV and be proactive.


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## The Sage of Main Street (Jan 14, 2022)

Decus said:


> Several factors drove protestors into the streets in Kazakhstan:
> 
> Kazakhs are fed-up with corruption. Fed-up with the fact that elites enjoy the wealth of the country while the average person is left to deal with rising fuel and food prices and face limited opportunities.
> 
> ...


*The American Eagle Flies High Over Ground-Grubbing Egalitarianism*

We heard the same ignorant Muzziphile nonsense about the Arab Spring in Syria.  Muslims are not like us at all, so what Americans would resent about the Kazak government is irrelevant and should not be a starting point in any discussion.  If you compare us with these Mongoloid savages, you're comparing apples and orangutans.


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 14, 2022)

I am no expert on the U.S. role in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, but it seems to me the U.S. is more likely to be pushed out than to do any pushing out of Russia and China. Here is a 2014 article which predicts this — way before the U.S. ended its military presence in Afghanistan:









						The United States Just Closed Its Last Base in Central Asia
					

What the closure of Manas’ Transit Center means for Central Asia’s future.



					thediplomat.com
				




Of course the U.S. would love to make trouble for Russia and block China’s overland bridge to Iran and Europe, but doing anything extreme might threaten its investments there. These might be expendable, but the truth is U.S. military power and the West’s direct ability to threaten Kazakhstan is negligible:

“The U.S. ultimately has little leverage in Central Asia. As illustrated by last year’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, long preceded by base closures in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, the U.S. simply was never going to remain engaged in Central Asia. Russia will by dint of sheer geography.”

The big U.S. economic investments in Kazakhstan are vulnerable. The West as a whole provides safe refuge for the leaders of the regime to hide money in fancy real estate and banks and to educate its children … but from what I can see American NGOs so far have gotten nowhere in the face of dictatorial repression. There just doesn’t seem much realistic chance that the U.S. will ever “own Kazakhstan.”

I could be wrong about all this, but I don’t think so. It seems to me that secular nationalist factions of the Kazakhstan leadership are
at most playing the American card, not the other way around.


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> Russia will intervene if course if Ukraine attacks Donbass,


In Russia, no one officially recognized the Donbass as non-Ukraine, so your words "if Ukraine attacks Donbass" are just clownery, even from the point of view of Moscow's officialdom.


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> What???? Just a couple of months ago  in the small town Yegoryevsk near Moscow (population about 70 thousand people), during a search of the police chief of this town, an amount of 5 million dollars in cash was found, not counting the rest. CASH. Who could pay that kind of money in a small town where the average salary doesn't reach $500? What the hell are you saying? How is this possible? Do you have any idea the scale of this corruption?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You don't get it. 
People tolerate corruption if their level of live improves. 
While specifically in Russia almost every week some quite big representative of beaurocracy is being publicly arested and punished. 
For example, today I read about arrest of the Head of radioengeneering service of Russian army, he took a bribe of $67 000.

I. e. Putin takes pains to denonstrate that fight against corruption is real. And it is real at least in small and medium level. 
On higher lever it is not corruprion, it is lobbysm, which is absolutely legal in the USA, by the way.. 

I don't know if such arrests take place in Ukraine but corruption is not the primary concern in Russia.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> if you ate a Canadian then just replace "your" with "their", the rest of content is still valid.


Just try to appreciate Canada's position. Trudeau isn't stupid. He's probably more aware of reality than any other Canadian P.M., other than maybe Chretien who kept us out of Iraq.


Siberian said:


> In Syria there is ear on the ground which makes Russian military presence nessessary and reasonable.
> In Kazakhstan - it will be counterproductive.


YOu might be saying that because you have to say that right now. The US/Nato says that Russia won't be leaving. So Russia will only leave in the same way it leaves it's victim countries. Not.


Siberian said:


> Russia will intervene if course if Ukraine attacks Donbass, but most probably not with invasion on land, it will be just complete destruction of Ukrainian army and infrastructure by missiles and aireal bombardment.



Yes, the Ukraine is and will be the US proxy force, but it may have very advanced and lethal US weaponry that will kill Russians. Then Putin will have to move forward.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> I am no expert on the U.S. role in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, but it seems to me the U.S. is more likely to be pushed out than to do any pushing out of Russia and China. Here is a 2014 article which predicts this — even before the U.S. ended its military presence in Afghanistan:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Don't underestimate American financed NGOs, they are mostly welcomed and even groomed by local regimes to counterbalance Russian gravity.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

The Kremlin has* never* officially announced interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine in the east, has never recognized any official military presence there, has never questioned the status of Donbass as an integral part of Ukraine.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> In Russia, no one officially recognized the Donbass as non-Ukraine, so your words "if Ukraine attacks Donbass" are just clownery, even from the point of view of Moscow's officialdom.


officially? 

Russia is granting Russian citizenship to locals, more than 500 000 already got it. 
You can forget about Donbass as a part of Ukraine with 200% probability..


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Just try to appreciate Canada's position. Trudeau isn't stupid. He's probably more aware of reality than any other Canadian P.M., other than maybe Chretien who kept us out of Iraq.
> 
> YOu might be saying that because you have to say that right now. The US/Nato says that Russia won't be leaving. So Russia will only leave in the same way it leaves it's victim countries. Not.
> 
> ...


I may be saying because I have to say? 
What does it mean? . 

Russian victim countries? which ones? besides, lol, look who is talking.... 

Russian troops are leaving Kazakhstan, it is a simple fact which cannot be denied or interpreted in any other way..


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Even after the referendum on joining Russia was held in the Donbass, the Kremlin did not react to this in any way.
There is a version that the Kremlin unofficially organized the Donbass rebel troops and supplied them. The leader of the Donbass resistance, Igor Strelkov, stated the exact opposite. After he left the Donbass, he became an oppositionist to the Kremlin and did not support Moscow.

Will we continue to tell fairy tales or is it enough?


----------



## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> I am no expert on the U.S. role in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, but it seems to me the U.S. is more likely to be pushed out than to do any pushing out of Russia and China. Here is a 2014 article which predicts this — way before the U.S. ended its military presence in Afghanistan:


The US is already promoting violent protests against government. I very much doubt this will turn out to be the first one where America gives up and pulls out it's CIA assets.
Mostly I feel that way because it's too big a prize to allow China and Russia to keep it. Much, much too big!


Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Of course the U.S. would love to make trouble for Russia and block China’s overland bridge to Iran and Europe,..................


Yeah that.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> The Kremlin has* never* officially announced interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine in the east, has never recognized any official military presence there, has never questioned the status of Donbass as an integral part of Ukraine.


Just today or yesterday, I forgot, was it Lukashevich or Lavrov himself who said that Ukraine should not fear intervention if it fulfills Minsk agreements 

and if it doesn't? 

Now we are at the turning point, you should not refer to what has been stated by Russian officials long ago.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> officially?


Yes, yes, and I also heard that Putin unofficially runs the country from the basement of the Lubyanka, collecting "bratva" there at night. That is why he is considered Emperor, despite his modest constitutional powers.


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## Donald H (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> I may be saying because I have to say?
> What does it mean? .
> 
> Russian victim countries? which ones? besides, lol, look who is talking....


Did I say Russian victim countries? I don't know of any recently at least. I must have meant US victims.


Siberian said:


> Russian troops are leaving Kazakhstan, it is a simple fact which cannot be denied or interpreted in any other way..


We'll see.


----------



## Decus (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> China and Russia are forming a cooperation alliance.
> 
> It's all in the meaning of external forces. Russia is an invited peacekeeping guest.
> 
> There are China's footprints throughout the world but not as an invading force.



China will use Russia but there is no partnership. China has already stolen many of Russia's military patents and is now selling Russian military hardware after small modifications as Chinese. 

China takes what it wants and all Russia can do is say thank you to China. Siberia, Central Asia, Russian military patents, Russia is running out of things China can take.

.


----------



## Decus (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> I am pretty much  fed up with this matra beind said in every post of every Western poster, including you, Tom.
> 
> It is very frequent in Western press, is taken for granted and copypasted by all of you without really thinking.
> 
> ...



Russians tolerate corruption because that's all they've known. People in other parts of the world however are less inclined to accept corruption.

.


----------



## ESay (Jan 14, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Not Kazakhstand specifically, but not a new expert in the sense of the ME and countries bordering on Russia or close to bordering.
> But I've always been aware of Kazakhstan being the ultimate prize for America, but not envisioned by America to be considering possible.
> 
> Fwiw, I became interested and more informed in March 99 with the Kosovo war, which settled the point of America's intention to infringe on Russia's borders, instead of honouring an agreement.


I doubt the US views Kazakhstan as a prize at all. Though, I don't rule out that American intelligence services view this region as a tool to instigate conflicts on Russian and China borders to draw their attention from more important parts of the world. 

But the starting point of these conflicts won't be Kazakhstan, but rather Uzbekistan or Tajikistan.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> Just today or yesterday, I forgot, was it Lukashevich or Lavrov himself who said that Ukraine should not fear intervention if it fulfills Minsk agreements
> 
> and if it doesn't?
> 
> Now we are at the turning point, you should not refer to what has been stated by Russian officials long ago.


The Minsk Agreements have been violated more than once, on both sides, and Moscow does not solve these issues on its own, this is a deliberative procedure.

In general, the left wing of Moscow benefits from the current Ukrainian policy. The Nazism of the Banderites corresponds to the Bolshevik aspirations to destroy the Ukrainian-Polish unity. And in general, the Bolsheviks always loved when Ukrainians died, shooting at each other or from the Glodomors. Apparently it amuses them.


----------



## The Sage of Main Street (Jan 14, 2022)

Decus said:


> Russia carefully avoided contact with Kazakh protestors and were only there to pretend they still had some role to play in Kazakhstan. China is now the dominant player in Kazakhstan; buying oil companies there and investing billions of dollars in infrastructure projects that are all designed to allow China's dominant control of Kazakhstan's energy and mineral resources.
> 
> Should Russia try to assert itself in Kazakhstan the Chinese will send them packing.
> 
> ...


*Our Foreign Policy Doesn't Need a Chinese Fire Drill*

Have you never bought the shoddy Chinese products?  These Confused Confucians can't walk and chew chop suey at the same time.  Maybe as the result of Communism or maybe it's genetic, but they are an inferior race that will never expand their influence beyond their totalitarian wok pot.


----------



## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 14, 2022)

On corruption, I agree when standards of living are rising, it can often be tolerated. I _*also*_  agree with Decius it is a matter of history, custom, knowledge of alternative ways of life. Not speaking just of Russia. Though you surely remember Russia under Gorbachev when even Russians were ready for change. Sometimes there are nearby examples of higher standards. Sometimes people even have hopes and dreams (call them illusions of you want). I am not just talking about corruption. There is also basic security of the individual, free speech rights and conscience, deadening cultural conformity (as in China). Also often there is a sense of basic identity and traditional rights being abused by kleptocrats (Kazakhstan). I’ve lived in China for eight years. I think I know what I’m talking about. Totalitarianism, authoritarianism, even just in culture … sucks.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> You don't get it.
> People tolerate corruption if their level of live improves.
> While specifically in Russia almost every week some quite big representative of beaurocracy is being publicly arested and punished.
> For example, today I read about arrest of the Head of radioengeneering service of Russian army, he took a bribe of $67 000.
> ...



But where is the decrease in the level of corruption that you are talking about? Even for wealthy America, this is an outrageous amount for a small town sheriff. And where is the reaction of the authorities? This should have been considered at a high level, but we only see articles in the media and the issue is not raised.
Arrests of corrupt officials are good, but some say that this is just a purge of objectionable ones, in and of themselves demonstrative arrests do not prove anything.


----------



## The Sage of Main Street (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> damn, Chinese are coming!
> it's time to throw myself out of the window.
> what was that American general's name?


*Backing Down, Down, Down*

Douglas McArthur.  Truman threw America out the window when he fired our greatest general.


----------



## Decus (Jan 14, 2022)

The Sage of Main Street said:


> *The American Eagle Flies High Over Ground-Grubbing Egalitarianism*
> 
> We heard the same ignorant Muzziphile nonsense about the Arab Spring in Syria.  Muslims are not like us at all, so what Americans would resent about the Kazak government is irrelevant and should not be a starting point in any discussion.  If you compare us with these Mongoloid savages, you're comparing apples and orangutans.



What the hell are you talking about? Kazakhs have been expressing their frustration with Nursultan Nazarbayev and corruption:

"_If the Nazarbayev political star is finally on the wane in Kazakhstan, then his relatives shoulder some of the blame."

"Oldest daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva’s political career, mainly in the rubber-stamp legislature, has been marked by a series of controversial statements and perceptions of an abrasive style."

"Offshore leaks and a high court challenge in London have revealed the extent of her family’s foreign property holdings — part of a capital flight trend Nazarbayev officially discouraged while president."

"His middle daughter Dinara and her husband Timur Kulibayev control Halyk, the largest commercial bank, and are among the richest people in the country_."









						‘Old man out!’: Anger in Kazakhstan focuses on ex-leader
					

ALMATY (Kazakhstan), Jan 9 — As protesters armed with sticks and discarded police shields prepared to storm the mayor’s office in Kazakhstan’s largest city Almaty, they...




					www.malaymail.com
				




Nursultan Nazarbayev and family have stolen from Kazakhstan and Kazakhs are fed-up.

.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian By the way, I personally know the former chief of criminal investigation of a provincial town in Russia, and he says that he left because instead of doing deal, they began to cover their ass with paper and earn money instead of detective work. He himself left with a bare ass, he drives an old nine, so you can trust him. This happened just at the time when the level of official patriotism increased, from about 2015. Just when they fuck with pensions and so on.


----------



## Decus (Jan 14, 2022)

The Sage of Main Street said:


> *Our Foreign Policy Doesn't Need a Chinese Fire Drill*
> 
> Have you never bought the shoddy Chinese products?  These Confused Confucians can't walk and chew chop suey at the same time.  Maybe as the result of Communism or maybe it's genetic, but they are an inferior race that will never expand their influence beyond their totalitarian wok pot.



You should never post when you are drunk, and you seem to be "three sheets to the wind".


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

I wonder if there is another politician in the modern world who named the capital of the state after himself? He surpassed even the Bolsheviks of the 30s, Kirov, Stalin and Voroshilov did not pretend to rename Moscow in honor of themselves.

No, seriously, are there still such precedents in the world? This is complete bullshit comrades.


----------



## The Sage of Main Street (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> Will we continue to tell fairy tales or is it enough?


*A Molested Generation Loses the Will to Survive*

Once a country legalizes fairy marriage, its Liberal media's fairy tales spread like gangrene.


----------



## The Sage of Main Street (Jan 14, 2022)

Decus said:


> You should never post when you are drunk, and you seem to be "three sheets to the wind".


*If Someone Can't Debate, He Makes Sophomoric Accusations*

If the sheets are made in China, no wonder a few belches from a blowhard poster blows them away.


----------



## Decus (Jan 14, 2022)

The Sage of Main Street said:


> *If Someone Can't Debate, He Makes Sophomoric Accusations*
> 
> If the sheets are made in China, no wonder a few belches from a blowhard poster blows them away.



At least you are honest and admit you are a "blowhard poster"

.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> People tolerate corruption if their level of live improves.


Actually, I wouldn't agree with that.

 And it is not clear why you said it at all. You want to say that in Russia the standard of living has risen? Even avid patriots would have laughed at this. We are already talking about the fact that not everyone has enough to buy bread. Goods of average quality have almost completely disappeared from the stores, no one can afford it. For example, buy a German AEG drill for 40 thousand rubles, or Nike sneakers for 10 thousand, except perhaps in Moscow. Even in the 90s, such a product was available to ordinary citizens, now it is no longer there.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

Decus said:


> Russians tolerate corruption because that's all they've known. People in other parts of the world however are less inclined to accept corruption.
> 
> .


people in the rest of the World have no less corruption, just in the US you are brainwashed into thinking you don't have it. 

partially it's true because corruption was legalized as lobbying


----------



## Decus (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> people in the rest of the World have no less corruption, just in the US you are brainwashed into thinking you don't have it.
> 
> partially it's true because corruption was legalized as lobbying



Don't assume - it makes you an ass.

I've lived and worked in Asia, the Pacific Basin and Europe. I have spent more time abroad than I have at home.

.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> people in the rest of the World have no less corruption, just in the US you are brainwashed into thinking you don't have it.
> 
> partially it's true because corruption was legalized as lobbying



What specific mechanisms of such lobbying exist in the US and not in Russia?

Corruption at the lower level can be judged by the quality of public service. You will not find well-trained police and firefighters in Russia, such as in the United States, precisely because their training and testing is a formality, they simply sign.
As a rule, in the United States, police officers do not take bribes at all. In the US, you can't buy a semester of college education, and so on. Corruption exists everywhere, but where its level is low, the quality of state and public services is always high.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

In Russia, as a rule, even plumbers of the communal service never leave without a bribe for repairing a faucet. They just say they don't have the material, or they don't have the time, or they can't turn off the water, and they still have to pay for everything.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> Actually, I wouldn't agree with that.
> 
> And it is not clear why you said it at all. You want to say that in Russia the standard of living has risen? Even avid patriots would have laughed at this. We are already talking about the fact that not everyone has enough to buy bread. Goods of average quality have almost completely disappeared from the stores, no one can afford it. For example, buy a German AEG drill for 40 thousand rubles, or Nike sneakers for 10 thousand, except perhaps in Moscow. Even in the 90s, such a product was available to ordinary citizens, now it is no longer there.


lol, yes, I want to say that level of life tripled at least since 200.Msyve increased by 4 or 5 times, especially in cities. In remote rural areas - yes, probably not much, since with modern technologies rural population is excesdive. 

By the way, it is an aspect which will cause a catastrophe in Ukraine soon, when modern technologies come to Ukrainian agriculture most rural Ukrainians will have to either emigrate to cities/abroad or return to mefieval peasantry... 
Nationalist rural Western Ukraine will be hit the most. 

So, yes, level of life is at least 3 times higher in Russoa than in Ukraine. 
Don't listen too much to Ukrainian propaganda


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> lol, yes, I want to say that level of life tripled at least since 200.Msyve increased by 4 or 5 times, especially in cities. In remote rural areas - yes, probably not much, since with modern technologies rural population is excesdive.
> 
> By the way, it is an aspect which will cause a catastrophe in Ukraine soon, when modern technologies come to Ukrainian agriculture most rural Ukrainians will have to either emigrate to cities/abroad or return to mefieval peasantry...
> Nationalist rural Western Ukraine will be hit the most.
> ...


I'm not even going to comment on this nonsense.

By the way, I heard a lot about the fact that rural houses and military parts in the East are not gasified, and they heat with firewood. But I was shocked when I found out that there is no gas there even in cities, and this is not a remote area, but precisely those regions that produce gas and oil, such as the West Siberian oil and gas basin and so on.

In fact, I used to think that this situation was only in remote places.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> In Russia, as a rule, even plumbers of the communal service never leave without a bribe for repairing a faucet. They just say they don't have the material, or they don't have the time, or they can't turn off the water, and they still have to pay for everything.


lol, Rupol, where do you get such nonsense  
but for example, this is a deep, remote rural province, look at quality of roads. I have been travelling all over Ukraine before 2014, I have not seen a single road of such quality. 

I can't say about all Russia, but everyehere where I was this yea, and I travelled extensively in all area West and Nirth-West from Mosvow to the borders - roads are either perfect or being reconstructed, Russia is a giant construction site. 
I can state that for the first time in Russian history roads are not a problem in Russia any more. And you have not been to Moscow, Europe really sucks compated to it.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Just imagine the tragedy-comedy of this situation: the people who supply half of Europe with gas, the largest gas-bearing regions of the whole the world, do not have their own gas supply, and they are forbidden to collect deadwood for heating. This is just sheer absurdity.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> look at quality of roads


Wow, roads in Russia are a separate topic  Of course there are several exemplary roads for photographs for foreigners, but in general this is a topic for thousands of jokes and sayings. "problems in Russia are fools and roads."

They make roads bad on SPECIALLY. If they have good roads, they will not be given money that can be stolen semi-legally. Therefore, in Russia you can often see how roads are repaired during rain, for example.

I'm not kidding


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Probably this can only be seen in Russia and the CIS


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> I'm not even going to comment on this nonsense.
> 
> By the way, I heard a lot about the fact that rural houses and military parts in the East are not gasified, and they heat with firewood. But I was shocked when I found out that there is no gas there even in cities, and this is not a remote area, but precisely those regions that produce gas and oil, such as the West Siberian oil and gas basin and so on.
> 
> In fact, I used to think that this situation was only in remote places.


yes, it took place, it is a consequence of policy of appeasement of Soviet republics in USSR, Russia gassified you first.

But it is only part of the picture, you can find remote places with little comfort, but if you take 90% of population, they live 3 times better than 90% of Ukrainian population.

generally, Rupol, don't make me laugh. even official statistics says that Russian GDP per capita is 3 times higher than Ukrainisn one. And your elite steals much more money than ours 
Don't believe Ukrainian propaganda, better visit Russia. Though,  you may wish to stay here 

for another example. This is a medium provincial town of Pskov. You will not find a single old Lada there, and in the same time 90% of cars being sold in Russia are produced in Russia.

Accept the fact, Ukraine is a deep shithole, Russians live several times better than Ukrainians. More than 3 mln Ukrainian migrants work in Russia. Weird Ukrainian propaganda may be successful only with you, peasants, who never leave your country and have never been to Russia.

And take a note how clean it is in the streets in Russia. I heard that streets of American cities are full of various shit.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> GDP per capita is 3 times higher than Ukrainisn one


I am sure that the GDP per capita in the Chinese concentration camps for Uyghurs is even higher, because when a person works 20 hours a day and eats a bowl of rice a day, the GDP inevitably grows. I don’t know where these idiots come from who think that GDP is somehow related to the standard of living, but over the past 20 years, IQ levels have fallen by about 15%


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

Rupol, you read too much Ukrainian propaganda  
I am telling you what life really is in Russia, I made these pictures myself and I am responsible for their being true. 
Where did you get yours?  

Some more Pskov. It is not Moscow, not even St. Petersburg. It is a common, not very big provincial Russian town of 209 thousand people. 















And even old, Soviet time districts are nice and clean. 





And unlike in the US there are no slums and ghettos in Russia. 
There are abandoned towns in the far North or Siberia, if some coal or oil field gets exhausted, but it's a couple % of population at most. 

I can't say yet that Russians live better than Americans. Even taking in accountvthat healthcare is mostly free in Russia. Maybe just in Moscow level of life is higher than in most European countrues and most America. 
But generally life is comparable...


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> Moscow, Kremlin, Trump election headquarters....


Currently, the rhetoric of the pro-Kremlin media is openly leftist. They launder the crimes of Bolshevism, revive many Soviet trappings from the times of Stagnation, and so on. Then why Trump and not Biden? Do you know that the Democrats represent the left in the USA? It's just interesting how this strange brain of the "Ivan the Fool" model works, according to what algorithms.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> What specific mechanisms of such lobbying exist in the US and not in Russia?
> 
> Corruption at the lower level can be judged by the quality of public service. You will not find well-trained police and firefighters in Russia, such as in the United States, precisely because their training and testing is a formality, they simply sign.
> As a rule, in the United States, police officers do not take bribes at all. In the US, you can't buy a semester of college education, and so on. Corruption exists everywhere, but where its level is low, the quality of state and public services is always high.


how can you say anything about Russia without visiting it? 
I told you already, most communication with various administrations takes place online, via electronic government.
You are repeating some common examples of both Russia and Ukraine of Soviet time.
Since then Russia made an absolutely giant step forward, it is ahead of most Europe and the US in implementation of the electronic government.
You don't communicate with live beaurocrats, you cannot give a bribe to computer.
And even traffic police (the biggest corruptionist in both Russia and Ukraine) is not seen much in the streets, because cameras are everywhere and number of police officers was reduced maybe 10fold, maybe more.. 

Again, Rupol, you, as most brainwashed Americans, are stuck in the stone age.

Russia is much, much more a modern and advanced country than the US and Europe, let alone savage Ukraine.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

again, Ukraine is savage, the West is medieval compared to modern Russia.

just you listen to nothing except propaganda

Moscow is leading among European cities in the innovations ranking that help curb COVID-19 / News / Moscow City Web Site


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

lol,
come to our KGB headquarters, I will teach you to get irony about Trump elections.. 

again, in all fields Russia is improving and developing fast.
While the West stagnates at best, or degrades..

As for Ukraine it is going to be unpopulated Wild field in a generation. If Russia does not take it back.

Moscow moved up four positions in the rating list of innovative cities in Europe


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> I can't say yet that Russians live better than Americans


In general, by the way, it is also strange that the quality of life is measured only by material wealth. This is typical to some extent of the Americans, too, but for the CIS countries it is especially typical. Almost no one is interested in the moral aspect, ideology and traditions, they always talk only about material prosperity as a measure of the quality of life. This contrasts strongly with the fact that some kind of special "spirituality" is declared, and there is also a "traditional" respect for thieves. You know that the thieves' caste has respect among the people (not only in Russia, of course)? This is some sheer hypocrisy.

As for the material, in the US the average salary is about 10 times higher than in Russia, and the price of gasoline is about the same as in Russia. This alone is enough to dispel your illusions.

But personally, for example, I am attracted to the United States by their political system and culture, their values, the American Spirit, and not at all by the material wealth of Americans.

When they were poor they did not bow their heads and they defended their freedoms.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

ypu


rupol2000 said:


> In general, by the way, it is also strange that the quality of life is measured only by material wealth. This is typical to some extent of the Americans, too, but for the CIS countries it is especially typical. Almost no one is interested in the moral aspect, ideology and traditions, they always talk only about material prosperity as a measure of the quality of life. This contrasts strongly with the fact that some kind of special "spirituality" is declared, and there is also a "traditional" respect for thieves. You know that the thieves' caste has respect among the people (not only in Russia, of course)? This is some sheer hypocrisy.
> 
> As for the material, in the US the average salary is about 10 times higher than in Russia, and the price of gasoline is about the same as in Russia. This alone is enough to dispel your illusions.
> 
> ...




in the US to call an ambulance you have to pay about 20 monthly salaries of a common Russian, in Russia it is free. 
by the way, in Russia you can register at certain time to visit any doctor via your account in electronic government. 

education, housing and so on - you must take many aspects, not just number of dollars you earn. After Americans pay mortgage, debt for education, car, etc - they have maybe a hundred bucks at their disposal. 
Am I not correct, Americans? 
While in Russia education is 10 times cheaper, healthcare is almost or completely free, except some surgery or special treatment, housing is several times cheaper. Everything is cheaper. 

And social services of the government improve every year. 
Just Russians are ungrateful bastards, most did not witness or try not to recall Soviet beaurocratic hell. 

but I am afraid we have to ignore spirituality, otherwise you and Americans will be left far behind at all


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> Just Russians are ungrateful bastards, most did not witness or try not to recall Soviet beaurocratic hell.



If you are for the current system, then why do you scold the USSR, because now it is customary to praise it in Russia? Or do you defend this regime as the lesser evil?


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian Do you really think that Russia is somehow close to the American right? We will not touch on the fact that Trump is not quite the right-wing one that Reagan and Bush were, but he is obviously still more right-wing than Obama and Biden. What exactly is the Kremlin close to the American right?


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> If you are for the current system, then why do you scold the USSR, because now it is customary to praise it in Russia? Or do you defend this regime as the lesser evil?



Do I support current system?
I support evolution over revolution, first of all. I have been witnessing constant improvement in Russia in all fields, I am ok with this.

As a Russian I was extremely, (I thought) irrrepairably sceptical about perspectives of provincial Russia, you know, we Moscovites are sure there is no life outside Moscow ring road.
Until this year, when I visited dozens of Russian towns, hundreds of villages in area of about the size of France maybe. Or several Frances...

I confess, it was a great surprise for myself how good everything . Of course in every village there are abandoned houses, small remote  villages of 10 houses die at all, people move to cities. Agriculture does not support extensive hand works any more...
But big villages, towns and cities are developing and doing well. No drunk people, everything is clean, everything works.
Looking from aside there is a huge difference compared with what it was even 10 years ago.

People moan of course, but it's a natural state of mind of Rusians.
I, for example, having 3 cars in my family, am pissed off with that Moscow mayor introduced fees for parking in most Moscow streets. Before it was free, now he is trying to make people use public transport...
really a bastard..

I also oppose Putin very much in many aspects, first of all that he invests so much in Western debt instead of developing Russia faster than he does.
Too little, we can easily be the World champions instead of just improving fast 

As well Putin could take all Novorossia in 2014.. But getting older I start to understand his cauciousness. He preserved the core Russia, prevented economic destabilization from such a burden which Ukraine is, and can slowly eat the rest of you now, being sure no Western sanctions kill Russia 
Probably he will not even do anything but sitting on the river bank and watching how you destroy your country and prepare it to be reunified with Russia. 

As for USSR of 80s, which I remember, it had positive and negative sides. It was economically ineffective, this is my main reproach to it.

Generally, Rupol, I am sure you will like being a Russian citizen. In about 20 years, I think first Novorossia will have to go through transit phase of semi-independent state...
You have not deserved Russian citizenship yet  like Donbass did.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> Siberian Do you really think that Russia is somehow close to the American right? We will not touch on the fact that Trump is not quite the right-wing one that Reagan and Bush were, but he is obviously still more right-wing than Obama and Biden. What exactly is the Kremlin close to the American right?


No, Rusia is not close to the American right.
It is American right share common sense and conservative family values which are common in Russia.
Hardly more than that.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> Do I support current system?
> I support evolution over revolution, first of all. I have been witnessing constant improvement in Russia in all fields, I am ok with this.
> 
> As a Russian I was extremely, (I though) irrrepairably sceptical about perspectives of provincial Russia, you know, we Moscovites are sure there is no life outside Moscow ring road.
> ...



You are wrong on many counts. First, Putin does not have the power that rumor ascribes to him. It does not resolve international issues, issues of war, it does not determine domestic policy. If you only believe that he secretly controls United Russia, which has a majority in the Parlament. He is the head of executive branch and not more.
Russia really began to rise from the 00s, I attribute this to Bush's coming to power. Russian policy has never been independent, it has always depended on US policy. From 2014, politics changed sharply to the left and the standard of living fell sharply, besides, severe censorship was introduced. Only the blind can miss it. No one except you, including even ardent patriots, is now saying that Russia has begun to live better than it lived before 2014.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

have a look at Russian electronic government. 
do you have such thing? 





__





						Портал государственных услуг Российской Федерации
					





					www.gosuslugi.ru


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> No, Rusia is not close to the American right.
> It is American right share common sense and conservative family values which are common in Russia.
> Hardly more than that.


In this case, where did this cliché come from about that Trump was supposedly a protege of Moscow?


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> have a look at Russian electronic government.
> do you have such thing?


I think that such a site now exists in any country, even in Zimbabwe.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian 
By the way, Putin resigned as chairman of United Russia shortly before the collapse of 2014, for no apparent reason. Accordingly, until 2012, he really had almost unlimited power in Russia, since the parliamentary majority controls almost everything in Russia.

His departure and the collapse of 2014 are connected
So in 2012 there was a coup and the removal of Putin from real power. shortly before that, Obama came, and under Bush, Russia's policy was loyal to the United States and there was no such anti-American hysteria. Putin maintained good relations with Bush Jr.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> You are wrong on many counts. First, Putin does not have the power that rumor ascribes to him. It does not resolve international issues, issues of war, it does not determine domestic policy. If you only believe that he secretly controls United Russia, which has a majority in the Parlament. He is the head of executive branch and not more.
> Russia really began to rise from the 00s, I attribute this to Bush's coming to power. Russian policy has never been independent, it has always depended on US policy. From 2014, politics changed sharply to the left and the standard of living fell sharply, besides, severe censorship was introduced. Only the blind can miss it. No one except you, including even ardent patriots, is now saying that Russia has begun to live better than it lived before 2014.



I did not say now Russians live better than before 2014. Probably the peak of income was in about 2011, then stagnation in economic growth started, then there were ups and downs.

But since then exactly the quality of the state improved very much. State functioning improved very much.
Social cervices, environment, quality of public services, everything around you.

Some minor examples.

All around Russia city authorities near every house, in every yard made such places for children. Everywhere at all, in every fcken small town. For free, people did not spend a rouble.







then, in a couple of years, it seemes it looked like too little, and they added small stadiums and sporting sites. For free.
In every fcken yard.





you can easily google by yourself
детские пдощадки во дворах
спортивные площадки во дворах
to check out geography and mass spreading of this innovation
Including Crimea...

then, all small roads are gradually getting separators to prevent deaths in road accidents.
I live in a Moscow suburb, 1/4 of local roads have such things by now.





I mean such small things are numerous and most Russians already got used to them.
But if you asess progress in last 10 years it is absolutely tremendous.

Then, last year Moscow Metro/subway 12 new stations were built. While Kiev subway has 52 stations at all...

It all sounds like propaganda and maybe it has propaganda effect, but it is just facts and truth.
Russia is developing very fast, improving very fast.
You all ( let alone brainwashed Americans) are stuck in the past, don't keep pace with changes.

All this I say just to make you understand how stupid you sound to us repeating all this nonsense your and Western propaganda spreads.

Better visit Russia, Ukraine is not a very big issue here, i. e. Rissians would be rather curious what life is like in Ukraine than express some political attitude.
It is in Ukraine life spins around Russia and its "aggression", and has been all independence period, but here Ukraine is almost like Senegal - something very distant and not quite important. Maybe except last months due to recent events.
I mean unlike Russians in Ukraine, Ukrainians in Russia are safe and can enjoy tourism


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

I didn't understand this until now. It just now dawned on me.


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> But since then exactly the quality of the state improved very much. State functioning improved very much.
> Social cervices, environment, quality of public services, everything around you.
> 
> Some minor examples.
> ...


Now these programs are also being reduced. In the last 2 years, most construction projects under the program of resettlement from dilapidated housing have been frozen. Across the country are unfinished buildings, frames and foundations. Before they usually built it for 1 year from scratch


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> I think that such a site now exists in any country, even in Zimbabwe.


hardly in the US... 
no, not just the site, look at its functions, you can do almost everything you need in your life via this online service. 

Russian hackers are Russian hackers not only because the West has kgb paranoya, but because Russia is an electronic super power, a country which is ahead of most of the World in modernizing social life using electronic services.


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> It is in Ukraine


The enmity between Ukraine and Russia is artificially created and fueled by both sides.

The formal reason there was a lease for the Crimean fleet, but this fleet consists of several warships and a bunch of auxiliary boats on which corporate parties are held, the ships are not even painted and there is no security there. This issue was easy to settle, but they needed a reason for contention. For Russia, this curtsy was generally strategically disadvantageous, because it risked losing rocket engines, the basis of defense capability, on which the missile forces depend. The question of fleet is a shit in comparision with question of missle forses


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> hardly in the US


Actually, the USA is a leader in the field of IT, the server on which the public services website runs, its processor, the Internet - all this was created in the USA

lol


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> Now these programs are also being reduced. In the last 2 years, most construction projects under the program of resettlement from dilapidated housing have been frozen. Across the country are unfinished buildings, frames and foundations. Before they usually built it for 1 year from scratch


it is another program, reconstruction of old districts. 
old buildings are destroyed and people get  new flats for free of the same size, or bigfer with paying difference. 

There was a period after default of 1998 when construction stalled for a couple of years. 
As well there is a problem with privaye developers which collect money before they build houses, but it is not too much spread now. 

And of course there are no frozen basements in big proportion as you say  

last year Russia built a record number of new flats

again, Ukrainian propaganda is a primitive scum, it works only if you are poorly informed  
or are a zombied American, wjo was raised on such stuff...


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> last year Russia built a record number of new flats


I trust people more than official figures. Everywhere they say that construction projects are frozen, there is no money, and nothing has been completed over the past season from what has been started.


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

I forgot, via this electronic government site you can pay your electricity bills, taxes, payments to all extra courses your children may wish to have, you get covid certificate or register to make a free vaccination shot etc. etc.

It was started thanks to then prime minister Medvedev. Medved is mostly ridiculed in Russia, but in this thing he really deserves a monument.
Putin in this regard is a much retarded person, he even does not use internet.
But he supports all this stuff. Artificial intelligence is one of his priorities, so, we can expect Russia to be among pioneers in this field.


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> Actually, the USA is a leader in the field of IT, the server on which the public services website runs, its processor, the Internet - all this was created in the USA
> 
> lol


Americans, can you judge us?

Do you have a site in which you can make all this stuff? - aplly for pension or social benefits, pay taxes, electricity bills, fees and penalties, ask for driver licence, order issuance of your passport, pay for education of your children, appoint a visit to a doctor, file a lawsuit, etc..


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> I trust people more than official figures. Everywhere they say that construction projects are frozen, there is no money, and nothing has been completed over the past season from what has been started.


as I said, there is a current problem of "deceived shareholders", обманутые дольщики,  some construction companies sell flats on the phase of basement for lower prices. Some companies don't make it to the end, get bankrupt. 
A couple of years ago the government introduces some measures against it, but the problem is not completely solved. 

But there is nothing close to mass problems in construction or mass frozen object.


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

There, apparently, the point is that this program was mostly financed by the sale of additional housing, and demand and real estate prices collapsed. Some of the housing they sell for next to nothing, some cannot be sold.


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> In this case, where did this cliché come from about that Trump was supposedly a protege of Moscow?


Trump was not a Putin's puppet, all this was nothing but a tool in struggle of first Killary, and then Democrats against Trump.

Russia first was observing this with slight amusement, and even understanding, thinking it is a common thing in elections and after elections serious people will get back to serious approach.

But Trump got stuck in the White house for 4 years so Russiagate hysteria was fanned by Democrats to absolutely astronomical proportions, destroying US-Russia relations so much than now Biden tries hard, but fails to tear Russia from alliance with China.

Even blackmail with ignition of Ukraine-Russia war (during visit of CIA director to Moscow in November) did not help.


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> There, apparently, the point is that this program was mostly financed by the sale of additional housing, and demand and real estate prices collapsed. Some of the housing they sell for next to nothing, some cannot be sold.


not true, prices for flats doubled in 2021, inflation accelerates. 

avito.ru - you can check prices. 

you are disinformed


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> Siberian
> By the way, Putin resigned as chairman of United Russia shortly before the collapse of 2014, for no apparent reason. Accordingly, until 2012, he really had almost unlimited power in Russia, since the parliamentary majority controls almost everything in Russia.
> 
> His departure and the collapse of 2014 are connected
> So in 2012 there was a coup and the removal of Putin from real power. shortly before that, Obama came, and under Bush, Russia's policy was loyal to the United States and there was no such anti-American hysteria. Putin maintained good relations with Bush Jr.


This explains the paradox of Putin's rhetoric. During the Bush years, he was strictly anti-Bolshevik, even allowing himself anti-Semitic remarks.
Нe never visited the monument to Stalin, this is in sharp contrast to the modern mainstream in the near-official media. What is happening in Russia now has nothing to do with Putin.


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> This explains the paradox of Putin's rhetoric. During the Bush years, he was strictly anti-Bolshevik, even allowing himself anti-Semitic remarks.
> Нe never visited the monument to Stalin, this is in sharp contrast to the modern mainstream in the near-official media. What is happening in Russia now has nothing to do with Putin.


you are wrong in just everything  
I wonder where you get all this crazy stuff about Russia.


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> not true, prices for flats doubled in 2021, inflation accelerates.


In real value, it has fallen sharply, even in Moscow


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> you are wrong


I'm sure it's all right


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

By the way, about the same thing happens in the car market.
Catastrophic drop in demand.
In fact, these resettlement programs are on the verge of bankruptcy.


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Most likely they will sell the apartments for next to nothing to their relatives in order to complete what has been started, and this will end the program


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## Siberian (Jan 14, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> I'm sure it's all right


better visit Russia to judge by yourself and not to rely on misinformation  

2-3 days per Moscow and St. Petersburg to see the minimum. 

For example Amber chamber in Catherine's palace in St. Petersburg suburb.. the one which Nazis stole..


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## rupol2000 (Jan 14, 2022)

Siberian said:


> 2-3 days per Moscow and St. Petersburg to see the minimum.








St. Petersburg is a city of drunks in stinking swamps, why not make Yekaterinburg the cultural capital? There, in the 90s, at least there was a decent rock club without drunks and Nazis.

(In the photo above, a member of the Committee of Culture under the State Parlament of the Russian Federation, St. Petersburg cultural figure Sergei Shnurov. This is the most well known cultural figure of St. Petersburg, and this is not a joke)


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 14, 2022)

I must be having a bad dream …


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## Siberian (Jan 15, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> St. Petersburg is a city of drunks in stinking swamps, why not make Yekaterinburg the cultural capital? There, in the 90s, at least there was a decent rock club without drunks and Nazis.
> 
> (In the photo above, a member of the Committee of Culture under the State Parlament of the Russian Federation, St. Petersburg cultural figure Sergei Shnurov. This is the most well known cultural figure of St. Petersburg, and this is not a joke)


lol, it is a Shwarzeneggeg example. Firts he became a celebrity and than a politician and not vice versa


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## Siberian (Jan 15, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> I must be having a bad dream …


what is wrong, Tom?
we stepped off the right way, Tabulistan? 
leave it for some time, there is nothing important there any more, to chew it over is a waste of time, let first quantity of changes turn into quality.
it will be a wild guessing to write empty pages of these sheepers now..

just to finish you, In Rome subway is a road to Hell, I have not been to the US but heard in the US subway is not better. Compare your country to Russia...
 We have special trains in Metro where art is exhibited... if you daily use Metro to get to the work once a nonth or two you get such train...

















Really, the power of brainwashing is astonishing.

To keep all population of a backward, economically stagnating and close to collapse, racist, socially and racially divided, oppressed, without freedom of speech, police state of the US in self-identification as a democatic and advanced "Leader of the free World"  - is really the most advanced US technology..

Rupol, about freedom of press I can give you a similar eyes opening lecture, with millions of examples of raging Putinophobes speaking in outlets or radios financed by government controlled companies (Gazprom media - > Echo of Moscow radio station)

While Ukraine is the last one to speak of freedom of speech. In your country Nazis kill people who say a word in opposition. I remember a Nazi mob attacking a~ 12 years old girl which went out to the street to celebrate Victory day or something... attacked without being punished, probably that girl was punished...


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## Siberian (Jan 15, 2022)

and again... 

Europe's Leading City Destination 2021


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## Siberian (Jan 15, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> In real value, it has fallen sharply, even in Moscow


wrong, you seem not to understand what you post  

this graph reflects sharp devaluation of the Rouble in the end of 2014 and early 2015, when the West first imposed its sanctions about Crimea. 
To my greatest surprise it was not followed with Rouble inflatiin, as it has always been before. I guess it was one of factors which kept Putin away from seizing, sorry, liberating the rest of Ukraine - he was not sure Russia could resist economic burden of both feeding new territories and Western sanctions. 
Before Russia imported very much and if Rouble was falling immediately and automatically all Rouble nominated prices and first if all ones of imported goods were growing accordingly. 

But not this time, Rouble prices were more or less stable, inflation was low. In your graph you can see that after a short spike prices of flats fell. And since Rouble/Dollar exchange rate was stable - Dollar nominated prices were also stable since mid 2015.
In Roubles prices were growing sliwly according to inflation (~6%), except in 2021, wheb prices griwth accelerated very much, due to the World inflation acceleration. 

Glibal hyperinflation is coming, and Dollar will be buried as  the Wirkd trade and reserve currency. 

But, as a result of this unprecedented stability if Russian economy under Western sanctions it seems Putin is confident now that we can stand any sanctions at all. 

most probably he is right.


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## Peace (Jan 15, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 

You have never been opponent to China authoritarian rule or it willingness to meddle in World affairs that would directly hurt the United States of America and there are many threads created by you supporting China growth on the World Stage, so stop lying for once!

Also as for the what is happening in Kazakhstan is decades long abuse by World powers that prop up a worthless government that rapes the people while making Russia and China richer and yes the U.S. is most likely involved just like China is involved with the Cartels and the immigration crisis and drug trade that come to our Southern Border here in the U.S. and it is called playing the game!


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 15, 2022)

Mad_Jack_Flint said:


> Tom Paine 1949, You have never been opponent to China authoritarian rule or it willingness to meddle in World affairs that would directly hurt the United States of America and there are many threads created by you supporting China growth on the World Stage, so stop lying for once! … China is involved with the Cartels and the immigration crisis and drug trade that come to our Southern Border here in the U.S. and it is called playing the game!


Your fantasy that China is behind U.S. self-destructive drug consumption (going on for generations now) and our immigration and border problems, shows you yourself are lost in a fantasy world, brain-washed, or high on drugs.

I have always defended Chinese dissidents fighting for democratic rights, but that is above all a domestic fight that China’s own people must wage. The Western assumption that somehow our own outside military/economic pressure, sanctions and obvious hypocritical moral posturing, will force China to change or slow its historic return to great power status in the world, is proving itself to be as counterproductive as the previous assumption that it will evolve in our image. I oppose such mistaken and arrogant assumptions, and insist on realism and respect for China’s (and Russia’s) fundamental and legitimate national interests.

China and Russia are nuclear powers, each with serious internal problems (very different than those we have). But it is the U.S. which has demonstrated unequaled imperialist appetites and open aggression around the world.


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## Siberian (Jan 15, 2022)

oh and I forgot.
we also have Multifunctional centers which act in tune with the electronic government.

you can order an official document and collect it there. or if you are 100 years old and are afraid of computers, or don't have one - you go there and get what you want, it's sort of giant One window service.

what I want to mention - in Moscow if it took more than 15 minutes to solve your problem you are given a free cup of coffee.
in other cities and towns - I doubt, but still all this demonstrates how much the very field for corruption shrank and how easy communication with the government goes on now.

if not the US Hollywood depicting Russia in Borat style and massive brainwashing - I presume Americans would be revolting by now if they understood in what a shithole country they live and how far behind Russia they are.


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## Siberian (Jan 15, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Your fantasy that China is behind U.S. self-destructive drug consumption (going on for generations now) and our immigration and border problems, shows you yourself are lost in a fantasy world, brain-washed, or high on drugs.
> 
> I have always defended Chinese dissidents fighting for democratic rights, but that is above all a domestic fight that China’s own people must wage. The Western assumption that somehow our own outside military and economic pressure, sanctions and obvious hypocritical moral posturing, will force China to end its historic return to great power status, is very counterproductive. I oppose mistaken and arrogant assumptions of this sort, and insist on realism and respect for China’s (and Russia’s) fundamental and legitimate national interests.
> 
> China and Russia are nuclear powers, each with serious internal problems (very different than those we have). But it is the U.S. which has demonstrated unequaled imperialist appetites and open aggression around the world.


lol, Tom, you are acting like a true Bolshevik during imperialist war (WWI)


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## Siberian (Jan 15, 2022)

17 planes brought Russian peacekeepers back from Kazakhstan on Saturday.

By January 19 their mission will be completed. No food for Western conspiracy theories and for this topic...


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## evenflow1969 (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Then on the other hand, this one is going to be effective with those who aren't already propagandized into swallowing the Russia hating and the perception that it's all just Russia's fault.
> Tom's OP was quite balanced and so now we have to hear where he's trying to go with this?


Oh, Russia is a bad actor for sure, how ever it's gdp is laughable. China is certainly the bigger threat. Keep sanctions on Russian economy will keep them in check. Better figure out what to about China.


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## Donald H (Jan 15, 2022)

evenflow1969 said:


> Oh, Russia is a bad actor for sure, how ever it's gdp is laughable. China is certainly the bigger threat. Keep sanctions on Russian economy will keep them in check. Better figure out what to about China.


You're right that both China and Russia are threats, but not military threats in either case, but for different reasons. China doesn't threaten militarily and Russia's hands are tied by the M.A.D. threat, as are America's 

The great danger that's to discuss is in the possibility that the Ukraine will attack and Russia will respond with massive force. And the possibility that Russia will suffer losses to US supplied weapons.

That's when proxy wars turn fatal for the powerful nuclear armed countries that participate. 

Russia and China are already considering broadening the conflict to C.America and S.America. 

Who knows what's going to happen in the future, but at least we have a few educated people contributing to the speculation on this topic.


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## The Sage of Main Street (Jan 15, 2022)

Siberian said:


> how can you say anything about Russia without visiting it?
> I told you already, most communication with various administrations takes place online, via electronic government.
> You are repeating some common examples of both Russia and Ukraine of Soviet time.
> Since then Russia made an absolutely giant step forward, it is ahead of most Europe and the US in implementation of the electronic government.
> ...



*Hansilly and Greta*


Siberian said:


> Americans should ally with such advancing countries rather than decadent Western Europe and the formerly Great Britain.  Those retro countries are infested with Muslim savages and ruled by primitive-thinking Environmentalist kooks.


And we shouldn't cosset the Cossacks.  Ukies swirl dizzily into the European dust bunny and deserve no sympathy from forward-thinking people.


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## evenflow1969 (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> You're right that both China and Russia are threats, but not military threats in either case, but for different reasons. China doesn't threaten militarily and Russia's hands are tied by the M.A.D. threat, as are America's
> 
> The great danger that's to discuss is in the possibility that the Ukraine will attack and Russia will respond with massive force. And the possibility that Russia will suffer losses to US supplied weapons.
> 
> ...


Yep, the future is a bit scary. Was not aware of this till this morning but NATO and Canada are currently war gaming a civil war in our country. They are heavily concerned this could happen and are worried who ends up in control of our Nuclear arsenal as well as what Russia and China s response would be with out the US as a counter balance to their power. Mean while people on here speak of civil war and say no big deal it will just require a visa to work across these lines. Not exactly realistic expectations of the real situation. How the fuck did this disconnect of reality happen? Just like the first civil war idiots are going to pack a picnic lunch to watch the first battle like it's a movie or dinner theater. Then the dumb ducks will be running for their lives. Only this time we have nuclear, biological and chemical weapons as well as foreign foes that reach here post haste. Again glad I am old.


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## The Sage of Main Street (Jan 15, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> In this case, where did this cliché come from about that Trump was supposedly a protege of Moscow?


*Nanny Government Gets Its Mate Billygoat*

The Democrats thought they had the electorate under their Green thumb.  Their Party newspaper, the _New York Times_, gloated that Trump only had an 8% chance of getting elected.  When he was, it was a such a shock to their smug worldview that they had to preserve that by pretending that some foreign power with supernatural abilities somehow blocked their demographic demolition derby and handed the election over to THOSE HORRIBLE WHITE PEOPLE.

Like the Nazis taking advantage of a long history of calling Jews "Christ-killers," the devious Democrats took advantage of Russia's former long  reputation of being "the Evil Empire."  So the old scapegoat was already there and they made a pet out of it.  When Hillary told us _What Happened? _it was the tale of a fairy princess being raped by a bear.


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## Donald H (Jan 15, 2022)

evenflow1969 said:


> Yep, the future is a bit scary. Was not aware of this till this morning but NATO and Canada are currently war gaming a civil war in our country. They are heavily concerned this could happen and are worried who ends up in control of our Nuclear arsenal as well as what Russia and China s response would be with out the US as a counter balance to their power. Mean while people on here speak of civil war and say no big deal it will just require a visa to work across these lines. Not exactly realistic expectations of the real situation. How the fuck did this disconnect of reality happen? Just like the first civil war idiots are going to pack a picnic lunch to watch the first battle like it's a movie or dinner theater. Then the dumb ducks will be running for their lives. Only this time we have nuclear, biological and chemical weapons as well as foreign foes that reach here post haste. Again glad I am old.


Nato and Canada are war gaming a civil war in America? I'm missing your intent.

I do though understand your concern on US nuclear weapons but I don't really see a US civil war as a major threat at this time. I see the extreme right extremists as disorganized. A different topic.


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## evenflow1969 (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Nato and Canada are war gaming a civil war in America? I'm missing your intent.
> 
> I do though understand your concern on US nuclear weapons but I don't really see a US civil war as a major threat at this time. I see the extreme right extremists as disorganized. A different topic.


My intent is to inform you that they are concerned enough right now that they are preparing for that eventuality. They believe it is likely enough they need to be prepared. Canada is so worried they are considering putting in Express ways to our border to handle our people that are fleeing.


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## Donald H (Jan 15, 2022)

evenflow1969 said:


> My intent is to inform you that they are concerned enough right now that they are preparing for that eventuality. They believe it is likely enough they need to be prepared. Canada is so worried they are considering putting in Express ways to our border to handle our people that are fleeing.


Thanks for that. I would like to see a credible link on the story you're suggesting.


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## evenflow1969 (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Thanks for that. I would like to see a credible link on the story you're suggesting.


I will look for it.


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## evenflow1969 (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Thanks for that. I would like to see a credible link on the story you're suggesting.


Here is an old article you touching on it. I will ask my source on it where I can find proof this afternoon at the funeral we are attending.


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## Donald H (Jan 15, 2022)

evenflow1969 said:


> Here is an old article you touching on it. I will ask my source on it where I can find proof this afternoon at the funeral we are attending.


You forgot to post the link.


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## evenflow1969 (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> You forgot to post the link.











						America’s Next Civil War | The Walrus
					

The United States shows all the warning signs of impending social and political collapse. Here's what an internal conflict could look like.




					thewalrus.ca


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## ESay (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> The great danger that's to discuss is in the possibility that the Ukraine will attack and Russia will respond with massive force. And the possibility that Russia will suffer losses to US supplied weapons


I doubt this happens in the foreseeable future. There is not any reason for it. Ukraine can't retake these lands by military force as long as Russia is involved there. Direct fight between Russian and Ukrainian armies will result in defeat of the latter with significant looses from the Ukrainian part. As it was in the battles of Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo. 

Yes, there are some forces in Ukraine that advocate a military solution of the conflict. But they don't have an upper hand.


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## ESay (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Russia and China are already considering broadening the conflict to C.America and S.America


I doubt that Russian missiles will emerge in Cuba and Venezuela. Though, similar rhetoric has begun circulating recently from the Russian side.

The main reason why this thing won't come true is possible American response. For example, setting up missile bases in Poland and the Baltic states.


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## Donald H (Jan 15, 2022)

ESay said:


> I doubt that Russian missiles will emerge in Cuba and Venezuela. Though, similar rhetoric has begun circulating recently from the Russian side.


I see a possibility of Russia docking ships in Havana that are carrying nuclear weapons. Then I can see how that would lead to another similar standoff, as happened before. It would create the same situation for America losing ground again. 

Has Russia or China already carried nuclear armed weapons to Cuba?


ESay said:


> The main reason why this thing won't come true is possible American response. For example, setting up missile bases in Poland and the Baltic states.



That's the main reason why it might happen. It's the main reason why Kruschev won the previous standoff against America.


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## rupol2000 (Jan 15, 2022)

ESay said:


> I doubt that Russian missiles will emerge in Cuba and Venezuela. Though, similar rhetoric has begun circulating recently from the Russian side.
> 
> The main reason why this thing won't come true is possible American response. For example, setting up missile bases in Poland and the Baltic states.


This was already planned, but Obama lost ground. They agreed to reduce the program, and place them only in the south.

Russia will not be able to deploy its missiles in Cuba and Venezuela. Firstly, it is easy to block by the  missile defense, and secondly, if they wanted it and could do it, they would build up the submarine fleet. But they almost do not make submarines.


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## Donald H (Jan 15, 2022)

ESay said:


> I doubt this happens in the foreseeable future. There is not any reason for it. Ukraine can't retake these lands by military force as long as Russia is involved there. Direct fight between Russian and Ukrainian armies will result in defeat of the latter with significant looses from the Ukrainian part. As it was in the battles of Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo.
> 
> Yes, there are some forces in Ukraine that advocate a military solution of the conflict. But they don't have an upper hand.


You need to take into consideration the possibility that America can and already is involved in equalizing the Ukrainian side. 

Admittedly not to the extent that the Ukraine could win a war against Russia, but to say that the Ukraine would score heavy losses against Russia. Thereby pushing Russia to a crushing blitzkreig on Ukraine. (and American bases in the region?)


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## Donald H (Jan 15, 2022)

rupol2000 said:


> This was already planned, but Obama lost ground. They agreed to reduce the program, and place them only in the south.


It's hardly fair to blame Obama, or any other president for that matter. Nothing has really changed since the Cuban missile crisis. 
If either Russia or China desires missile bases in C. America or S. America, they will do so. And they will claim legitimacy due to US nuclear arms in their sphere of influence.

However, with the advent of supersonic ballistic missiles, a good case can be made for there being no necessity. 

Bluntly stated, all parties will become toast(ed) within the first hour.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> It's hardly fair to blame Obama, or any other president for that matter


Conventionally, this is Obama, in the sense that this is the American left, which always tramples the people of the United States into the dirt



Donald H said:


> Nothing has really changed since the Cuban missile crisis.


The Cuban Missile Crisis was a leftist coup. A lot has changed since then. Reagan made America great again and Obama fucked US again. In fact, yes, everything has returned to that situation, and the symptoms are the same: then America was kicked out of Vietnam, and now it is out of Afghanistan.


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## ESay (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> I see a possibility of Russia docking ships in Havana that are carrying nuclear weapons. Then I can see how that would lead to another similar standoff, as happened before. It would create the  same situation for America losing ground again.
> 
> Has Russia or China already carried nuclear armed weapons to Cuba?
> 
> ...


I don't know why you think Khrushchev won anything. The Soviets withdrew their missiles from Cuba.

Btw, has anyone asked the Cuba government whether they want these missiles now there?


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## ESay (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> You need to take into consideration the possibility that America can and already is involved in equalizing the Ukrainian side.
> 
> Admittedly not to the extent that the Ukraine could win a war against Russia, but to say that the Ukraine would score heavy losses against Russia. Thereby pushing Russia to a crushing blitzkreig on Ukraine. (and American bases in the region?)


No, hardly, I doubt that a full scale war in Europe is in someone's interests.


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## rupol2000 (Jan 15, 2022)

ESay said:


> I don't know why you think Khrushchev won anything. The Soviets withdrew their missiles from Cuba.
> 
> Btw, has anyone asked the Cuba government whether they want these missiles now there?


Khrushchev was Eisenhower's henchman. He fought not against the US but against the left in the US. After Eisenhower left, he lost US support and was himself illegally removed in 1964.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 15, 2022)

ESay said:


> I don't know why you think Khrushchev won anything. The Soviets withdrew their missiles from Cuba.


I didn't expect that very many Americans would have eventually been exposed to the truth. 


ESay said:


> Btw, has anyone asked the Cuba government whether they want these missiles now there?


I don't know for sure if there are any nuclear armed missiles there or not. But there would be little doubt that Cuba's government would be informed if there are. And completely in agreement!

Cuba is cooperating completely with China now and will moreso in the future. I haven't been to Cuba for two years but when I was there it was quite plain to see that China is Cuba's future.

By now it's most likely that America has lost any power it had to negatively influence Cuba.


----------



## rupol2000 (Jan 15, 2022)

It is not clear what prevents America from putting its protege on the cube. Cuba is just a small island


----------



## ESay (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> I didn't expect that very many Americans would have eventually been exposed to the truth.
> 
> I don't know for sure if there are any nuclear armed missiles there or not. But there would be little doubt that Cuba's government would be informed if there are. And completely in agreement!
> 
> ...


We were talking about Russian missiles, not Chinese. I haven't heard about any plans of China to place their missiles there. And have no idea why you switched to this theme.

As a whole, China don't participate in this scuffle between Russia and the West. And I haven't seen any indications yet that it wants to directly engage in it.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 15, 2022)

ESay said:


> We were talking about Russian missiles, not Chinese. I haven't heard about any plans of China to place their missiles there. And have no idea why you switched to this theme.
> 
> As a whole, China don't participate in this scuffle between Russia and the West. And I haven't seen any indications yet that it wants to directly engage in it.


You can talk about anything you like, and restrict the conversation in any way you see fit.
Russian ships visit Cuba regularly but I can't say whether or not they are armed with nukes.

Would America object?








						What’s an advanced Russian warship doing in Havana harbor?
					

Here are some questions and answers about the Admiral Gorshkov’s travels through the Caribbean.




					www.navytimes.com
				












						3 Chinese warships arrive at Cuban port for visit
					

HAVANA (AP) — Three Chinese naval ships have arrived in Cuba to mark the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the Communist Party-ruled countries.




					www.sandiegouniontribune.com


----------



## ESay (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> You can talk about anything you like, and restrict the conversation in any way you see fit.
> Russian ships visit Cuba regularly but I can't say whether or not they are armed with nukes.
> 
> Would America object?
> ...


Of course these ships didn't have nuclear warheads on board. At first, let's wait what the Cuban government will say. There isn't Fidel Castro around now.

Also, as I said above, the Russians had better not start this game if they don't want to see nuclear missiles in Poland and the Baltics.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 15, 2022)

ESay said:


> Of course these ships didn't have nuclear warheads on board.


You don't know that. 


ESay said:


> At first, let's wait what the Cuban government will say. There isn't Fidel Castro around now.


The Cuban people are still solidly for their successful revolution. And now that China has upstaged America, there's no way they're going to buckle.


ESay said:


> Also, as I said above, the Russians had better not start this game if they don't want to see nuclear missiles in Poland and the Baltics.


The US already started the game and there are plenty of nukes surrounding Russia and China.
What's to stop Russia and/or China from having nukes in Cuba or any other C. American country? 

You still don't understand why Kruschev withdrew Russian ships carrying nukes to Cuba. Or why he even got the idea. Ask an educated American who isn't afraid of the truth. All I'm going to tell you is that there was no threat of it starting a nuclear war. There's a clue for you.


----------



## ESay (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> You still don't understand why Kruschev withdrew Russian ships carrying nukes to Cuba. Or why he even got the idea. Ask an educated American who isn't afraid of the truth. All I'm going to tell you is that there was no threat of it starting a nuclear war. There's a clue for you


I don't get this. Are you trying to say that the US and USSR didn't stand on the brink of a nuclear war at the times of the Cuban missile crisis?


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## Donald H (Jan 15, 2022)

ESay said:


> I don't get this. Are you trying to say that the US and USSR didn't stand on the brink of a nuclear war at the times of the Cuban missile crisis?


Yes, that's what I'm saying and I'm able to come to that conclusion based on knowing the facts of the situation. So get yourself up to date and then get back to me on the real story. Then I'll make some sense to you.

Or don't, it's up to you.


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## ESay (Jan 15, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Yes, that's what I'm saying and I'm able to come to that conclusion based on knowing the facts of the situation. So get yourself up to date and then get back to me on the real story. Then I'll make some sense to you.
> 
> Or don't, it's up to you.


It seems that your version will extensively contradict what I have read about these things. So, I won't even try.


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## Donald H (Jan 15, 2022)

ESay said:


> It seems that your version will extensively contradict what I have read about these things. So, I won't even try.


How disappointing. Google the 'real truth on the Cuban missile crisis' and then get back to me so we can agree on the facts. Or don't.


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## Decus (Jan 16, 2022)

Donald H said:


> The Cuban people are still solidly for their successful revolution. And now that China has upstaged America, there's no way they're going to buckle.



Reality is not your strength:

"_They are among hundreds of people detained since July 11, when spontaneous street protests _*in 50 cities saw thousands of people clamoring for change, chanting “Freedom,” “Down with the dictatorship” and “We are hungry*.”"









						In Cuba, 20-year sentence for filming protest
					

Three members of the Beirut family spent Christmas behind bars in Cuba, locked away for taking part in unprecedented protests against a communist regime notoriously intolerant of dissent.




					www.thesouthafrican.com
				




"_Protests erupted across Cuba on July 11 and 12 as thousands took to the streets *in protest against food shortages, rising prices, and economic hardships*. Some also called for a change in government_."









						Dozens of Cuban protesters to face trial this week, relatives say
					

Demonstrators were detained during unprecedented July protests over food shortages, rising prices and other grievances.




					www.aljazeera.com
				












						‘They want to make an example’: Cuba protesters hit with severe sentences
					

Six months after demonstrations, courts have quietly started imposing harsh sentences such as sedition




					www.theguardian.com
				




.


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## Donald H (Jan 16, 2022)

Decus said:


> Reality is not your strength:
> 
> "_They are among hundreds of people detained since July 11, when spontaneous street protests _*in 50 cities saw thousands of people clamoring for change, chanting “Freedom,” “Down with the dictatorship” and “We are hungry*.”"
> 
> ...


The protests in Cuba amounted to less than a hundred people. 
It died away quickly.


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## Decus (Jan 17, 2022)

Donald H said:


> The protests in Cuba amounted to less than a hundred people.
> It died away quickly.



I gave you 3 different links from news organization outside the U.S. (to avoid you claiming bias) that say differently. Put up your link regarding the number of Cuban protestors or shut up.

.


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 17, 2022)

Donald, sorry, but you asked to have your head handed to you on this one. Many more than “a hundred people” demonstrated.

Of course that is hardly the whole story. The U.S. media is not honest about today’s Cuba, nor about Latin America in general.

But there _*is*_ much exhaustion, economic suffering and opposition in Cuba. I oppose the vicious, self-defeating 60-year U.S. policy of sanctions and sabotage toward Cuba —finally loosened by Obama, but then tightened again by Trump and maintained by Biden. With two years of Covid devastating Cuba’s tourism industry (from Europe and Canada), life has been extra hard for Cubans recently.


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## Donald H (Jan 17, 2022)

Decus said:


> I gave you 3 different links from news organization outside the U.S. (to avoid you claiming bias) that say differently. Put up your link regarding the number of Cuban protestors or shut up.
> 
> .


I don't know if there is a link available but at the time there was nothing produced that showed large protests against government in Cuba. In fact, there were links produced that were showing anti-US protests that were claimed to be the opposite. Or were protests staged in Florida. 

Post the link that you think makes your point the best and I'll look at it. Don't be rude by telling me to shut up.


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## Decus (Jan 18, 2022)

Donald H said:


> I don't know if there is a link available but at the time there was nothing produced that showed large protests against government in Cuba. In fact, there were links produced that were showing anti-US protests that were claimed to be the opposite. Or were protests staged in Florida.
> 
> Post the link that you think makes your point the best and I'll look at it. Don't be rude by telling me to shut up.



I posted 3 (three) different links that you are welcome to read and quoted from two of the articles to make it easier for you. Either post a link supporting your position or shut up. 

I'm not rude I'm just following the rules - the rules of this forum require that you substantiate your claims with links to appropriate sources. 

.


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## Donald H (Jan 18, 2022)

Decus said:


> I posted 3 (three) different links that you are welcome to read and quoted from two of the articles to make it easier for you. Either post a link supporting your position or shut up.
> 
> I'm not rude I'm just following the rules - the rules of this forum require that you substantiate your claims with links to appropriate sources.
> 
> .


If you're still talking about protests in Cuba?
I can't post a link that shows nothing. No protests took place in  Cuba that amounted to any significant size.


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## The Sage of Main Street (Jan 18, 2022)

ESay said:


> I don't get this. Are you trying to say that the US and USSR didn't stand on the brink of a nuclear war at the times of the Cuban missile crisis?


*Shows Show Only the Shallow*

All along it was a political stunt to make JFK look brave and tough after he had chickened out and deserted Cuban patriots, letting them get slaughtered on the beaches of the Bay of Pigs.  We had missiles in Turkey as close to Russia as the Cuban missiles were to us.  So from the beginning everybody at the top of the US ruling class knew it would be settled by trade-off after the show was over.


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 18, 2022)

The CIA thought they could force JFK to invade Cuba if their Bay of Pigs invasion turned out to be a dud. They were badly mistaken … about everything. The Cuban Revolution was at its most popular in those days and resistance would have been immense if the U.S. itself had actually invaded. Kennedy was wise to refuse to be drawn in.

Such an invasion would have been a disaster for the U.S., with ramifications everywhere in Latin America, in just then decolonializing Africa and in Asia. It would have been a huge gift to the Soviet Union in the Cold War (and in the Middle East) in those days when the USSR was also at it strongest.

It is also wrong that the Cuban Missile Crisis was just “a political stunt to make JFK look brave and tough” … though of course his administration was concerned about his domestic image as well the U.S. international one. It is wrong to think “everyone at the top of the ruling class” had (or ever has) one view of events, or even knows what dangers lurk in their own actions. It is actually scary when they all think alike on international policy — it makes it easier to miscalculate. Indeed, arrogant, unquestioned U.S. policy has caused the U.S. to waste its resources in many foreign adventures.

Today, the risk of accidental major war, even nuclear war, remains, and it can arise through adventurism and miscalculation, even accidentally.


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## Decus (Jan 19, 2022)

Donald H said:


> If you're still talking about protests in Cuba?
> I can't post a link that shows nothing. No protests took place in  Cuba that amounted to any significant size.



I posted links that showed the reason for the protests and that they took place in some 50 different cities throughout Cuba:

"_They are among hundreds of people detained since July 11, when spontaneous street protests _*in 50 cities saw thousands of people clamoring for change, chanting “Freedom,” “Down with the dictatorship” and “We are hungry*.”"

There are dozens of such articles reporting on the protests in Cuba from news organizations all over the world and I provided you with several examples.

Next time back up your opinion or admit that you don't know what you are talking about.

.


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## Donald H (Jan 19, 2022)

Decus said:


> There are dozens of such articles reporting on the protests in Cuba from news organizations all over the world and I provided you with several examples.
> 
> Next time back up your opinion or admit that you don't know what you are talking about.
> 
> .


The big protests in Cuba didn't happen and there are no links that show a crowd of more than a couple of dozen in Havana. Post your best link with photos or go play.


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## Decus (Jan 19, 2022)

Donald H said:


> The big protests in Cuba didn't happen and there are no links that show a crowd of more than a couple of dozen in Havana. Post your best link with photos or go play.



I found a news article for you with an embedded video. Watch the video because you obviously have trouble understanding the written word:









						'We are no longer afraid': Thousands of Cubans protest against the government
					

Residents took to the streets in an unprecedented demonstration against increasing Covid-19 cases and deaths and severe economic shortages.




					www.nbcnews.com
				




.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 19, 2022)

Decus said:


> I found a news article for you with an embedded video. Watch the video because you obviously have trouble understanding the written word:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It opens with a display of about 100 demnstrators that was a pro-Cuba counter protest. and it doesn't get any better than that. There's no where near a thousand people shown protesting at any one time.


Decus said:


> .


I saw that link at the time and it's a mix of crowds in Miami with protestors in Cuba of maybe a hundred or less. It's US propaganda but it's best summed up by the announcer starting at around 1:50 when she had to admit that the emotions were high in mostly Miama, and that it 'might' amount to something more in Cuba.

Direct me to any particular point of time in the video if you care to argue the point further.


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## Decus (Jan 19, 2022)

Donald H said:


> It opens with a display of about 100 demnstrators that was a pro-Cuba counter protest. and it doesn't get any better than that. There's no where near a thousand people shown protesting at any one time.
> 
> I saw that link at the time and it's a mix of crowds in Miami with protestors in Cuba of maybe a hundred or less. It's US propaganda but it's best summed up by the announcer starting at around 1:50 when she had to admit that the emotions were high in mostly Miama, and that it 'might' amount to something more in Cuba.
> 
> Direct me to any particular point of time in the video if you care to argue the point further.



So you have as much trouble listening as you do reading. The opening reports that there were thousands of protestors throughout Cuba and they clearly show hundreds of protestors in one scene filmed in Cuba. The video goes on to show what was happening in Miami and clearly states this.

Cuban police vehicles were overturned and there was no pro-Cuban government rally being shown in the video, as that was organized after the initial protests against the government.

Given that you may have suffered a stroke and are easily confused let me make it even simpler for you.

Here is a report from the Turkish public broadcaster (TRT World) of the protests. They only show footage of Cuban protests (no mention of Miami) and there is no footage of a counter-protest. The below broadcast is dated July 12th and counter-protests requested by Cuba's president did not appear until July 13th.


.


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## Donald H (Jan 20, 2022)

Decus said:


> So you have as much trouble listening as you do reading. The opening reports that there were thousands of protestors throughout Cuba and they clearly show hundreds of protestors in one scene filmed in Cuba. The video goes on to show what was happening in Miami and clearly states this.
> 
> Cuban police vehicles were overturned and there was no pro-Cuban government rally being shown in the video, as that was organized after the initial protests against the government.
> 
> ...


It was blown way out of proportion to what it was by US propaandists and disgruntled Cubans who think they'll someday be able to go back and erect another Batista type regime. Get over it. China won't allow it!


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## Decus (Jan 20, 2022)

Donald H said:


> It was blown way out of proportion to what it was by US propaandists and disgruntled Cubans who think they'll someday be able to go back and erect another Batista type regime. Get over it. China won't allow it!



The Turkish public broadcaster is pro-American??? Too fcking funny.




You might want to watch the Turkish report again and this time try to pay attention.



.


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## Donald H (Jan 20, 2022)

Decus said:


> You might want to watch the Turkish report again and this time try to pay attention.
> 
> 
> 
> .


You might want to face up to the fact that the Cuban people's revolution is still hugely popular. And also the fact that renewed prosperity being brought in by China is only going to make it more popular.

I was in Cuba two years ago and have been there many times. China's contributions are spread throughout the country and that has the effect of preventing America from having the negative effect it's always had since shortly after the people's revolution. *The July protests were orchestrated by the US on behalf of disgruntled Miami Cubans as a last gasp effort before China came to the rescue.*

The future question on how America will handle the situation is much more interesting now than your hateful agenda. We'll soon see efforts by the big three players to increase their presense in the other players' spheres of influence. 

For instance, I see S.Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and some other countries being up for grabs as China and Russia rise.[/B]


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## Natural Citizen (Jan 20, 2022)

Tom, just out of curiosity, what are your thoughts on the recent arrest of Karim Massimov for Treason?









						Ex-security chief arrested as Kazakhstan presses crackdown on unrest
					

Kazakhstan's former intelligence chief has been arrested on suspicion of treason, the state security agency said on Saturday, as the former Soviet republic cracks down on a wave of  unrest and starts to assign blame.  The detention of Karim Massimov was announced by the National Security...




					news.yahoo.com
				





Particularly given previous revelations with regard to Massimov...

Photo shows Joe Biden meeting Hunter’s alleged business partner from Kazakhstan






_Hunter and Joe Biden with Kenes Rakishev (left) and Kazakhstan's former prime minister, Karim Massimov (right)



For context as to why I'm curious of your thoughts on it...._

Putin Stamps Out the Fire in Kazakhstan and Ukraine

_''Less than one week before a major summit between the United states NATO and Russia over the security architecture of Eastern Europe, *we’re treated to another failed color revolution in the most strategically important place along Russia’s southern border.*

There was looting, horrific violence and former government buildings, the ultimate symbols of power, set on fire.

*What may have been surprising was how quickly Russia and Kazakh’s President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev invoked the CSTO to come in and stop the nonsense.   But, if it didn’t happen this way the consequences for Russia and the rest of Asia would have been catastrophic.

Kazakhstan is simply too big and too important for Russia to even consider allowing to fall back into the hands of someone like Nursultan Nasarbaev, a true post-Soviet meglomaniac, Russophobe and self-interested jackass whose double dealings with the West are just shy of those by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.*

This article by Fyodor Lukyanov, brings up a lot of good points about what this intervention means for the future and I highly recommend it. But *what’s most important now is that this was a stiff message to Washington, London and Brussels.*_

*Get out of Central Asia and stay out.  Russia is now in control of the Heartland.'' (Boldface and italics emphases added)*


----------



## Natural Citizen (Jan 20, 2022)

I think that in addition to Russia outlawing NGOs and color revolutions by organization that it's likely gonna start putting on international pressure to name organizations by name_ and Individuals specifically_. Which certainly could become the standard for so-called bilateral agreements.

Could be why Biden is pausing lately, given wha twas referenced in terms with those business dealings a few links up in this communication.

Of course, that's placing aside the fact that all of this stuff really should be placed into context with the fact that the intelligence entities promoting conflict in general are the same intelligence entities who gave us weapons of mass distruction in Iraq and Russiagate. But that's another aspect to things, to be clear.


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## Decus (Jan 20, 2022)

Donald H said:


> You might want to face up to the fact that the Cuban people's revolution is still hugely popular. And also the fact that renewed prosperity being brought in by China is only going to make it more popular.
> 
> I was in Cuba two years ago and have been there many times. China's contributions are spread throughout the country and that has the effect of preventing America from having the negative effect it's always had since shortly after the people's revolution. *The July protests were orchestrated by the US on behalf of disgruntled Miami Cubans as a last gasp effort before China came to the rescue.*
> 
> ...



You are a expert in ... nothing. The many examples of international press reports I provided you with present a very different view of Cuba.

Let me know when the press quote you on something, I may see you in a different light. Until then you are just another asshole with an opinion he can't back up.

.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 20, 2022)

Decus said:


> You are a expert in ... nothing. The many examples of international press reports I provided you with present a very different view of Cuba.


Of course they do because you get those press reports shoved in your face daily. 

Communism is working in Cuba but it would have evolved to a capitalist system if the US would have allowed it to happen in a way that wouldn't do great harm to the peasant class. Now it's going to come via China's method of capitalism under a communist leadership. And that has great advantages. Ask me about it!


Decus said:


> Let me know when the press quote you on something, I may see you in a different light. Until then you are just another asshole with an opinion he can't back up.


You'll see soon enough! Go to Cuba by sneaking through some Canadian airport and you'll see even sooner. Many Americans  do!

Did I ever tell you the one about the two old ladies in Cuba who begged to not have their passports stamped? I'll save it for another time.


Decus said:


> .


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 20, 2022)

Natural Citizen said:


> Tom, just out of curiosity, what are your thoughts on the recent arrest of Karim Massimov for Treason?


It still isn’t very clear to me how deep the faction fighting at the top went, or how much still is going on, or if there is much difference between the major factions in regard to foreign alignments.

We might imagine much, but Nursultan Nazarbayev just re-emerged supporting Tokayev and his announced “reforms” — so the regime patronage networks may paper over differences with only superficial changes. The treatment of working class protesters may end up being more severe than that meted out to most on-the-out oligarchs.

Any security people actually caught organizing or facilitating a coup effort will certainly be tortured and elimiminated. It seems to me one wing of the security apparatus feared they would lose their power and decided to try to end the Tokayev transition. I would be surprised if any of the great foreign investors / countries were directly involved in the violence.

“Color Revolutions” generally require a mass civic movement or common unifying themes the people can unite around. There’s nothing like that yet except perhaps among rural religious clans (some of these _may_ have been bussed into a few cities to increase disorder). The oil workers, workers in general, and the unemployed of course have their own grievances, but no leaders among them have been allowed to make their mark on the country as a whole. Not yet anyway.


----------



## Natural Citizen (Jan 20, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> It still isn’t very clear to me how deep the faction fighting at the top went, or how much still is going on, or if there is much difference between the major factions in regard to foreign alignments.
> 
> We might imagine much, but Nursultan Nazarbayev just re-emerged supporting Tokayev and his announced “reforms” — so the regime patronage networks may paper over differences with only superficial changes. The treatment of working class protesters may end up being more severe than that meted out to most on-the-out oligarchs.
> 
> ...



Seems like there may be a pogrom (of sort) at play in there somewhere. I just haven't watched it very closely. That's kind of why I was curious what you thought about it.


----------



## Decus (Jan 21, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Of course they do because you get those press reports shoved in your face daily.
> 
> Communism is working in Cuba but it would have evolved to a capitalist system if the US would have allowed it to happen in a way that wouldn't do great harm to the peasant class. Now it's going to come via China's method of capitalism under a communist leadership. And that has great advantages. Ask me about it!
> 
> ...



More than a million muslims in Chinese concentration camps which you seem to wholeheartedly support. That really says something about who and what you are.

Not stamping American passports has been widely known for years. Some twenty years ago every American that I knew who traveled to Cuba for fun didn't have their passport stamped by Cuban officials. Living in Florida many would take their boat and a pocketful of cash to Cuba and would spend some time taking in the nightlife, as well as buying rum and cigars. It's only 80 miles from Key West to Cuba so alot of people did it. 

Cuba desperately wanted the dollars tourists brought and stamping American passports would cause many Americans tourists to avoid Cuba. This should tell you how desperate Cuba was and probably still is for hard currency.

.


----------



## Decus (Jan 21, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> It still isn’t very clear to me how deep the faction fighting at the top went, or how much still is going on, or if there is much difference between the major factions in regard to foreign alignments.
> 
> We might imagine much, but Nursultan Nazarbayev just re-emerged supporting Tokayev and his announced “reforms” — so the regime patronage networks may paper over differences with only superficial changes. The treatment of working class protesters may end up being more severe than that meted out to most on-the-out oligarchs.
> 
> ...



Kazakhs have been saying "old man out" for a few years now, referring to Nazarbayev. Are you saying that people aren't frustrated by the on-going corruption in the country? 

If the riots had appeared "overnight" you might be able to argue that this uprising had been orchestrated by political forces but it has been brewing for some time. In fact Nazarbayev resigned as president largely because of public disapproval.

.


----------



## Donald H (Jan 21, 2022)

Decus said:


> More than a million muslims in Chinese concentration camps which you seem to wholeheartedly support. That really says something about who and what you are.


Not near a million, that's just US hate propaganda, but several thousand maybe who are terrorists.


Decus said:


> Not stamping American passports has been widely known for years. Some twenty years ago every American that I knew who traveled to Cuba for fun didn't have their passport stamped by Cuban officials. Living in Florida many would take their boat and a pocketful of cash to Cuba and would spend some time taking in the nightlife, as well as buying rum and cigars. It's only 80 miles from Key West to Cuba so alot of people did it.


The point being is that these two arrogant ladies got their deserved comeuppance when the agenst stamped them both.


Decus said:


> Cuba desperately wanted the dollars tourists brought and stamping American passports would cause many Americans tourists to avoid Cuba. This should tell you how desperate Cuba was and probably still is for hard currency.
> 
> .


Most American tourists avoid Cuba. The few that compromise with communism and do go are easy to recognize. You can tell by getting them to say 'house'. They say haouse instead of house.

Cuba has two currencies, one for Cubans and one for tourists. The tourista currency is pegged to the US dollar.


----------



## Decus (Jan 21, 2022)

Donald H said:


> Not near a million, that's just US hate propaganda, but several thousand maybe who are terrorists.
> 
> The point being is that these two arrogant ladies got their deserved comeuppance when the agenst stamped them both.
> 
> ...



You are so full of bull regarding the Chinese and of course no link to support your goofy opinion.

Americans go to Cuba by the thousands. Anyone who loves good rum and good cigars is willing to risk it. Everyone knows about the CUCs. You're not much of an expert in anything. Keep trying, you one day may stumble on something of importance.

.


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## Donald H (Jan 22, 2022)

Decus said:


> More than a million muslims in Chinese concentration camps which you seem to wholeheartedly support. That really says something about who and what you are.
> 
> Not stamping American passports has been widely known for years. Some twenty years ago every American that I knew who traveled to Cuba for fun didn't have their passport stamped by Cuban officials. Living in Florida many would take their boat and a pocketful of cash to Cuba and would spend some time taking in the nightlife, as well as buying rum and cigars. It's only 80 miles from Key West to Cuba so alot of people did it.
> 
> ...


The people who go to Cuba legally from the US are nearly all Cuban Americans or family.
Inform yourself on the facts if you need to try to make some point.


----------



## Decus (Jan 22, 2022)

Donald H said:


> The people who go to Cuba legally from the US are nearly all Cuban Americans or family.
> Inform yourself on the facts if you need to try to make some point.



You are such a clown.

You said: "_Did I ever tell you the one about the two old ladies in Cuba who begged to not have their passports stamped? I'll save it for another time_." as if this was some big secret or that most people didn't know about "the stamp". Not getting your passport stamped while in Cuba has been widely known for over 20 years.

 Most of the people I knew traveling *illegally* from Florida to Cuba were not of Cuban descent. And it is a well-known fact that Cuban-Americans could visit Cuba legally.

A report on ABC from 2006:

"_*Many more Americans — estimates on both sides range from 20,000 to 50,000 a year — are sneaking into Cuba*_, in breach of the U.S. embargo’s ban on Americans’ spending money here, via third countries like Mexico, Canada, Jamaica or the Bahamas."









						Despite Embargo, Americans Flock to Cuba
					






					abcnews.go.com
				




"_Under the embargo, any U.S. sailor challenging the regulations risked severe penalties ranging from fines to imprisonment and confiscation of their vessels by American authorities. *Despite the risk of serious consequences, some found the siren call of Cuba too great to resist and came up with various ways to literally run the blockade in order to visit the island illegally*._"









						Cruising: A Farewell to Cuba
					

For a few sweet years, American cruisers had the freedom to sail to Cuba. It was good while it lasted, says Addison Chan Cuba has assumed near-mythical




					www.sailmagazine.com
				






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## Donald H (Jan 22, 2022)

Decus said:


> You are such a clown.
> 
> You said: "_Did I ever tell you the one about the two old ladies in Cuba who begged to not have their passports stamped? I'll save it for another time_." as if this was some big secret or that most people didn't know about "the stamp". Not getting your passport stamped while in Cuba has been widely known for over 20 years.
> 
> ...


The scene I witnessed hasn't been known for 20 years. I watched the Cuban customs officer stamping the two passports. What can I say about it? Apparently the decision to stamp or not stamp is in the hands of the customs officers. Although it makes sense that Cuba invites all tourists. The point being, arrogance didn't pay off in this instance.


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## Decus (Jan 22, 2022)

Donald H said:


> The scene I witnessed hasn't been known for 20 years. I watched the Cuban customs officer stamping the two passports. What can I say about it? Apparently the decision to stamp or not stamp is in the hands of the customs officers. Although it makes sense that Cuba invites all tourists. The point being, arrogance didn't pay off in this instance.



You really don't have a point, except to show how truly ignorant you are. 

.


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Jan 22, 2022)

Americans should be allowed legally and freely to visit Cuba, invest there under Cuban law, trade and socialize — like Canadians and Europeans. That would have many positive economic effects for Cubans and help them to reform their system of government.


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## Donald H (Jan 22, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Americans should be allowed legally and freely to visit Cuba, invest there under Cuban law, trade and socialize — like Canadians and Europeans. That would have many positive economic effects for Cubans and help them to reform their system of government.


So true Tom! Obama saw the logic in normalizing relations with Cuba at the appropriate time for America's interests. That can still happen but the competition with China's interests in Cuba will minimize the benefits for America. 

Obama's initiative could have even helped to disqualify  China from rushing in to fill the gap.
China will move slowly on it's agenda of owning Cuba's military alliance but quickly on gaining the hearts and minds of the Cuban people and the loyalty of Cuba's government. 

What a sad mistake Trump made!

Now, I see it as China's answer to the divided Korea issue.


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## Donald H (Jan 22, 2022)

Decus said:


> You really don't have a point, except to show how truly ignorant you are.
> 
> .


Well, maybe we can leave it at that at least until we can find something on which we can disagree? Why not see if you can invent something that we can both care about? I'm pretty adamant on the Ukraine situation if you want to jump over to one of those threads.
On Kazakhstan, I don't know what point you want to make?


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## Unkotare (Jan 22, 2022)

A very, very long time ago I knew a very, very beautiful girl from Kazakhstan.


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## xyz (Feb 6, 2022)

One very interesting thing about this is that the Chinese praised the crackdown.

Why is this interesting? Because they broke their golden rule of not commenting on the politics of different counties. Of course to them that does not include what they consider to be China: Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea islands, part of India that they invaded and so on. But Kazakhstan?


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Feb 6, 2022)

It is not entirely true that China always acts on this “Golden Rule” never to comment on other country’s internal affairs. It _*is*_ true that it generally says little, does not interfere, never disrupts elections, never invades distant countries, etc. China is very conservative in these respects, emphasizing “national sovereignty.” It is also very hostile to “color revolutions,” which imo the Kazakh riots hardly amounted to. China did not even support the USSR takeover of Crimea.

But the U.S. is now almost forcing the development of a strategic alliance between authoritarian powers China and Russia. The Chinese like that the Kazakhstan Russian alliance  intervention was done at the specific request of the Kazakh authorities, was completely “legal,” and was both short-lived and “successful” from almost any perspective. Of course the future of Kazakhstan, as well as the success of the Chinese “Belt and Road” initiative in Asia, is still very much undecided.


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## xyz (Feb 6, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> China did not even support the USSR takeover of Crimea.


It was the Chinese Republic then, they didn't have Communism until the 1950s.

Unless you meant Russia recently.


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Feb 6, 2022)

Yes, of course you are right. My mistake. Russia, not the USSR.


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## xyz (Feb 6, 2022)

The Chinese would only support Russia if it benefits themselves in some way. They wouldn't be against taking some Russian territory if the opportunity arose.


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## surada (Mar 3, 2022)

Tom Paine 1949 said:


> Little is known yet about the real forces that were behind the recent violence. The situation seems to have stabilized for now, and there are reports that the several thousand Russian and CSTO forces will soon be withdrawn. Let us hope so. If even only a few thousand Russian troops remain too long, or are too obvious in everyday life, serious problems down the road may emerge in relations between Kazakhs and the large Russian minority population.
> 
> That Russian population is today around 19% of the total, less than half what it was just before the USSR collapsed. We are talking of some 3.5 million Russians out of about 19 million total. Even after 30 years of independence, and despite resentment from some Kazakhs, the Russian language still plays a crucial role in higher education and society as a whole. There are other minorities as well, at least partly because this area was where many suspect populations and individuals were sent in Stalinist times.
> 
> ...


You have never been to Saudi Arabia or Libya. Gaddafi was like Trump in too many ways. Saudi Arabia has excellent leadership since Abdul Aziz ibn Saud with the exception of king Saud.


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## Tom Paine 1949 (Mar 3, 2022)

Not sure what your point is here. Qaddafi like Trump? Well, OK.  Strange and surreal, but I see where you’re going.

Of course NATO went on the offensive against a country that didn’t threaten if and _overthrew_ Qaddafi … and the horror that followed is clear.

On Saudi Arabia, it may be true that the reigning Princes have all been educated at Harvard and the best business schools in the West, but the Saudi state excels in torture and cutting up dissident bodies — remember Jamal Khashoggi! Even the Saudi ruling princes are now terrified of MbS. It seems to me that oil money has totally corrupted that country, and it is its minorities, imported workers, Yemenis, who suffer as a result. Certainly no more a democracy than Kazakhstan.

But you are right, I’ve never been there. Or to Israel or the Pentagon either.


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