# Great Depression Pattern Repeating



## Big Fitz (Jul 5, 2010)

News Headlines

This should be making a LOT of people very very nervous, and it's about right on schedule.  I feel like the rollercoaster just got over that hump before the drop and 'buzzed' off the lift chain.  If it's going to happen, we're probably talking weeks now, not months.  Possibly even days.

Then the world changes.


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## geauxtohell (Jul 5, 2010)

Big Fitz said:


> News Headlines
> 
> This should be making a LOT of people very very nervous, and it's about right on schedule.  I feel like the rollercoaster just got over that hump before the drop and 'buzzed' off the lift chain.  If it's going to happen, we're probably talking weeks now, not months.  Possibly even days.
> 
> Then the world changes.



First off, are you praying for or against a depression?  

Secondly, it's always funny when internet board members make economic predictions.  Weeks?  Days?  Goodness!


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## Trajan (Jul 5, 2010)

nothing would surprise me at this point. If we are heading back down to 6500 or 700 I would not all be surprised. If , in another 60 days bus. large and small doesn't start getting moving that is a sure bet. Capital flees taxes, seeing whats in store for us  with the bush tax cuts and whatever else will be heaped on, money will hunker down,  corp. profits which were squeezed out of downsizing and forced productivity gains and inventory depletion will evaporate as they must as theey are short term corp. profit drivers which of course drive most stocks.


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## Big Fitz (Jul 5, 2010)

Trajan said:


> nothing would surprise me at this point. If we are heading back down to 6500 or 700 I would not all be surprised. If , in another 60 days bus. large and small doesn't start getting moving that is a sure bet. Capital flees taxes, seeing whats in store for us  with the bush tax cuts and whatever else will be heaped on, money will hunker down,  corp. profits which were squeezed out of downsizing and forced productivity gains and inventory depletion will evaporate as they must as theey are short term corp. profit drivers which of course drive most stocks.


But nobody on the left will believe you that this is how it works even as they do the same thing and run for cover.


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## william the wie (Jul 5, 2010)

posted another similar thread on another board based on my own analysis of overnight momentum. A major downturn is not inevitable just very likely.


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## topspin (Jul 6, 2010)

I worry a lot more about earnings than technical charts, earnings have been getting better and economist are projecting growth this year.


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## midcan5 (Jul 6, 2010)

Is the figure the wall street casino presents a sign of anything more than how the bets are going?  Sadly today with finance blended into economics probably, yep.  But still so long as the hedges aren't extreme we should be ok but....

The great depression was the result of a market that was a bubble, a banking system that was unregulated, and the concentration of money. Yes, I guess it is similar but not for the reasons mentioned.

'How's That Recessioney, Oily Thing Working Out For You'

*"As of 2004, the richest one percent of Americans possessed sixty percent of all wealth in the country, while the bottom forty percent accounted for a whopping two-tenths of a percent."*


"Let&#8217;s be honest: We live in stunningly, jaw-droppingly, ridiculously absurd political times.

Here&#8217;s the story in a nutshell: A far-right predatory overclass has spent the last thirty years undoing the hard-fought gains of the mid-twentieth century, which had produced a robust middle class and vastly more economic and social justice in America than the country had ever known before. These regressives used every kind of deceit imaginable to persuade unsophisticated voters to choose candidates whose real agenda was to assist their plutocratic puppetmasters in fleecing the very same people who voted for them.

Such candidates ran on issues like the death penalty, immigration, bogus wars, gay marriage and abortion. But what they really were about as legislators was exporting jobs to where workers are dirt cheap and politically neutered, crashing organized labor, shifting the tax burden onto the mass public, deregulating industry to allow unhindered profit-taking on the upside and socialized public responsibility for risk on the downside, and locking in a Supreme Court majority that would never blanch at even the most outrageous rulings enhancing corporate power in American society."

David Michael Green

The Regressive Antidote - How's That Recessioney, Oily Thing Working Out For You?


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## saveliberty (Jul 6, 2010)

I would be truly surprised if the growth is really there.  I have not seen a new house constructed in quite some time here.  Existing housing stock is deteriorating for the most part too.  Car sales are slightly better than last year, but no real recovery there either.  Any major purchase seems to be slowing.

With people losing income in the form of unemployment checks, I doubt any growth seen so far this year is sustainable.  Local governments are going to have to start facing reality through downsizing, retirements and outright slashing of positions.  The economic contraction is just starting phase two.


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## Mr. H. (Jul 6, 2010)

Stylish, AND functional.


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## midcan5 (Jul 7, 2010)

saveliberty said:


> I would be truly surprised if the growth is really there.  I have not seen a new house constructed in quite some time here.  Existing housing stock is deteriorating for the most part too.  Car sales are slightly better than last year, but no real recovery there either.  Any major purchase seems to be slowing.




Housing is part of the problem in this nation imho.  Building sprawl is wasteful, destroys land that could be used for farming, creates energy addiction, and destroys the concept of neighborhood.  Is it any wonder we live in a land of narcissistic despair where fear is not only out there but in our own neighborhood. 

America is becoming the land of 'no can do' and the naysayers are happy with that impression as elections cause the pendulum to swing back even when back is really back.

Imagine the sensible demand / growth of rebuilding neighborhoods. Philly has some of this as old neighborhoods near the city rebuild. I was watching a show on how we are destroying our environment with sprawl and it reminded me of something I wrote a while ago. I need to see if the piece is on utube.  

http://www.usmessageboard.com/energy/56561-plowing-not-drilling.html


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## saveliberty (Jul 7, 2010)

midcan5 said:


> saveliberty said:
> 
> 
> > I would be truly surprised if the growth is really there.  I have not seen a new house constructed in quite some time here.  Existing housing stock is deteriorating for the most part too.  Car sales are slightly better than last year, but no real recovery there either.  Any major purchase seems to be slowing.
> ...



Wow!  What a pile of total crap.  The US government pays farmers not to plow.  There is over production of almost every agricultural product in the US.  Payments are in the billions from the government to farmers.

Our population is growing and housing stock deteriorates over time.  The population is very mobile in the US.  Having popualtion centers makes service deliver easier and cheaper, but we have the right to live where we choose and not where it is easy for the government to herd us.


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## Big Fitz (Jul 7, 2010)

midcan5 said:


> saveliberty said:
> 
> 
> > I would be truly surprised if the growth is really there.  I have not seen a new house constructed in quite some time here.  Existing housing stock is deteriorating for the most part too.  Car sales are slightly better than last year, but no real recovery there either.  Any major purchase seems to be slowing.
> ...


Oy!  we're going to try the 'better used for agriculture' argument against sprawl?  You do realize that we outproduce agriculturally what we did 100 years ago with less than 2% of our population and 60% of the land we had then.  

The federal government also has no right to tell us where to live or what kind of house we can live in.  No constitutional authority whatsoever.  And don't even try to say commerce clause or general welfare.  It's not there.  Smart growth is neither smart nor good for growth.  All it does is pack people into tenements rob them of their inalienable rights and make them dependent on government control like cattle in a feed lot.

Housing is not a problem.  Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are the problem, guaranteeing loans the feds have no legal right to be involved in putting the taxpayer on the hook for bad loans that are going to default and tempting the moral hazard of financial giants to make bad investments with no risk.

THAT is why we are repeating the great depression.  An inherant failure in regulation that is actually CAUSING the private markets to fail by forcing businesses into bad loans, and excusing predators by socializing risk while privatizing profits.  To say otherwise is to be completely ignorant of the real issues here.


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## Big Fitz (Jul 7, 2010)

> America is becoming the land of 'no can do' and the naysayers are happy with that impression as elections cause the pendulum to swing back even when back is really back.



And who's preaching that the loudest?  Mr. Yes We Can himself.  We can't seal the border.  We can't get back to the moon.  We can't drill.  We can't produce energy.  We can't let them fail.  We can't deport illegals.  We can't create private sector jobs.  We can't allow free speech on the radio.  

Yep.  Thank you progressofascists.  You are the "Ideology of Can't".



> Imagine the sensible demand / growth of rebuilding neighborhoods. Philly has some of this as old neighborhoods near the city rebuild. I was watching a show on how we are destroying our environment with sprawl and it reminded me of something I wrote a while ago. I need to see if the piece is on utube.



And who's to blame for the death of inner cities?  Oh that's right: leftist community organizers, progressofascist city councilmen and bureaucrats who don't give a shit what their populace has to say as long as they agitate them and keep em voting for them.  Now that they've wrecked these areas, they're going after making Rural slums by forcing public transit out farther, building 'model communities' and packing them full of welfare cases which suddenly turn small town suburbia safety into slums in the space of months.  Don't think they exist?  You come to the twin cities and see what's going on when you drop in high density housing in a small town near a bus line or light rail and pack it full of Section 8 Welfare recipients.  The slum just relocates like a cancer and begins to grow.

Progressofascism has failed.  We need to get back to personal responsibility, solid work ethics and ending the nanny state safety net.  The good news is that it's going to be forced to happen if we won't do it willingly because we'll be broke thanks to P-BO deliberately ruining this nation.


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## midcan5 (Jul 7, 2010)

All you guys do is blame government having not a clue that government must represent someone, and do the wishes of someone. That someone is you. 

Farmers still want to farm and development ruins that lifestyle. Mega farms do well but like mega corporations are not always the best thing for the people or the environment or even jobs. Profit as gawd hardly cares about micro consequences. 

The inner city was destroyed by the same forces that create dilapidated towns, the flight of money and concern for the place and the concentration of only the poor and criminal with little work and less opportunity. When work leaves for the south or foreign shores life changes. Pretty simple really. 

'Impacts of Sprawl'

Land Use and Urban Sprawl
Between 1950 and 2002, the number of acres of
farmland in Wisconsin dropped by 32.6%,
from 23.6 million acres down to 15.9 million.

"1. Loss of Farmland --- We're chewing up farms at an alarming rate across the U.S., to create new highways, fringe industrial parks and sprawled housing developments. This loss reduces our ability to grow food, fiber and timber. In many areas, urban development pressure and increased property taxes are forcing farmers out of business. They often sell their farms for housing developments, to provide financial security for their retirement.

* Wisconsin Farms - In 1950, Wisconsin had 23.6 million acres of farmland, but 32.6% of this farmland has disappeared, leaving us with only 15.9 million acres in 2002, according to the Wisconsin Agricultural Statistics Service. The number of Wisconsin farms has dropped from 178,000 down to 77,000, from 1910 to 2002. [Some of this farm loss is due to consolidation into much larger farms.
* Nationwide - More than 13.7 million acres of farmland in the U.S. were converted to non-farm use just between 1992 and 1997, according to United States Department of Agriculture. This figure is 51% higher than between 1982 and 1992. 

2. Loss of Wildlife Habitat..."

Land Use and Urban Sprawl on Clean Water Action Council

Sprawl City


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## Trajan (Jul 7, 2010)

midcan5 said:


> All you guys do is blame government having not a clue that government must represent someone, and do the wishes of someone. That someone is you.
> 
> Farmers still want to farm and development ruins that lifestyle. Mega farms do well but like mega corporations are not always the best thing for the people or the environment or even jobs. Profit as gawd hardly cares about micro consequences.
> 
> ...



and so what? should we just stop all productivity gains? we can do more with less, lets just stop and we'll go back to churning our own butter and using candles....


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## Againsheila (Jul 7, 2010)

midcan5 said:


> All you guys do is blame government having not a clue that government must represent someone, and do the wishes of someone. That someone is you.
> 
> Farmers still want to farm and development ruins that lifestyle. Mega farms do well but like mega corporations are not always the best thing for the people or the environment or even jobs. Profit as gawd hardly cares about micro consequences.
> 
> ...



Sorry, the government isn't listening to me.  I fought a garbage incinerator which they put in in spite of the fact that more ash came out than garbage going in and it was more expensive to cart away the ash than the garbage.  In fact, my wonderful city representative yelled at me when I pointed out these facts.  Not shockingly, he'd sold his home in the area right before we all found out about the garbage incinerator.  They had to buy pollution credits from Nalley Valley when a private company was refused the ability to buy pollution credits from another company across the street, they went miles away to get enough pollution credits to run a garbage incinerator that my representative admitted would be shut down in 10 years or less.  

I fought a Mega Church, lost that one too.  They built on WET LANDS and business property causing our city a loss of tax revenue.  Interesting how others weren't allowed to build on that same wetlands, also interesting that a member of the city council is a member of the church and refused to abstain from voting.

I've written my federal representatives and continually get form letters back that have nothing to do with the letters I wrote them.  These people are not representing US.  I don't know who they are representing, but it's not the American people.

I think that foreign TV station was right, America is collapsing.


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## saveliberty (Jul 7, 2010)

midcan5 said:


> All you guys do is blame government having not a clue that government must represent someone, and do the wishes of someone. That someone is you.



Those who govern best, govern least.  I think yo got it wrong twice.  They must represent us all, not someone.  Thinking like that has Obama trying to represent illegals.


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## editec (Jul 7, 2010)

Big Fitz said:


> News Headlines
> 
> This should be making a LOT of people very very nervous, and it's about right on schedule. I feel like the rollercoaster just got over that hump before the drop and 'buzzed' off the lift chain. If it's going to happen, we're probably talking weeks now, not months. Possibly even days.
> 
> Then the world changes.


 
I don't think there's a pattern to depressions.

It's a preposterous notion that our economy is the same as it was in 1932.

Again, economic isn't chemistry.

It's not physics.

It doesn't work the way some of you imagine it does.

There's too many random elements to think that one can apply the same rules to every occassion and get the same results.

That's like thinking one only needs to apply the gas pedal to your car and always turn left to avoid accidents and get where you're going.

Is this really that difficult to understand?


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## JakeStarkey (Aug 1, 2010)

Yes, Big Fizz is certainly right.  Study the numbers below to see the proof.  

July 30, 2010
Market Summary
Symbol 	Last 	Change Dow 	*10,465.94* 	Down 1.22 (0.01%)
Nasdaq 	2,254.70 	Up 3.01 (0.13%)
S&P 500 	1,101.60 	Up 0.07 (0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 	2.91% 	Down 0.92
NYSE Volume 	0
Nasdaq Volume


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## Truthmatters (Aug 1, 2010)

The gulf oil spill was like our Dust Bowl.

How many jobs and small businesses were killed in the Dust bowl which agrivated the GD?

This oil spill has done the same to this recovery.


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## Yurt (Aug 1, 2010)

Truthmatters said:


> The gulf oil spill was like our Dust Bowl.
> 
> How many jobs and small businesses were killed in the Dust bowl which agrivated the GD?
> 
> This oil spill has done the same to this recovery.



did you learn history from a fortune cookie?  

the dust bowl was far, far worse than the oil spill...


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## Toro (Aug 1, 2010)

We are not repeating the pattern of the Great Depression.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/stock-market/93053-the-market-now-v-past-crashes.html


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## Againsheila (Aug 1, 2010)

Big Fitz said:


> News Headlines
> 
> This should be making a LOT of people very very nervous, and it's about right on schedule.  I feel like the rollercoaster just got over that hump before the drop and 'buzzed' off the lift chain.  If it's going to happen, we're probably talking weeks now, not months.  Possibly even days.
> 
> Then the world changes.



I've been saying that for years but now a newspaper says it they believe?  Guess I'm just an idiot.


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## JenyEliza (Aug 1, 2010)

I'm inclined to believe we are more like October 1987 than October 1932.  I'm no economist, but I certainly do NOT believe the BP Gulf Oil Spill is equivalent to the Dust Bowl.  The DB wasn't a few months long event.  It dragged out years and years....and it nearly destroyed this country agriculturally and economically.   

The BP event will cetainly take years of recovery time, but the largest part of the damage has been contained in just a few short months, rather than years.   Also, the BP event was MAN MADE, *not* a natural disaster like the DB.  

Yeah, I'm thinking October 1987, and I am someone who has been severely impacted by both natural disaster (Atlanta floods 2009) and job elimination (man made 2009).  So there ya have it....I have every reason to hope, pray and believe that these life-destroying events are over and we're on the way back up, but I don't see it just yet. 

I do believe there is much more pain to come, as it hasn't really been spread far and wide just yet.  Look at the Washington DC/NOVA area.  No pain there to speak of.  Yet.

Hell, we don't even have a misery index yet like we did in the Carter years.  When THAT happens, I'll start looking for "recovery" around the corner.


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## Jos (Aug 1, 2010)

A link to a book for free (the actual book sells for over a $1,000)
Adam Fergusson: When Money Dies - Nightmare of the Weimar Collapse | University | United States Liberty Organization


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## Big Fitz (Aug 2, 2010)

AgainSheila, this is why they often rightfully say that local and county governments are the most corrupt.  Little corrupt people doing deals that benefit them most.



> I don't think there's a pattern to depressions.
> 
> It's a preposterous notion that our economy is the same as it was in 1932.
> 
> ...



Oh economics is a science all right even if it does have a sociological aspect to it.  Just because we don't understand all the random elements of how economics truly works doesn't mean they are not there.  This is why your computer models fail frequently.  Because they were assembled in a vacuum and not taking all the variables into effect.  Otherwise they would reflect accurately.

I think more liberals would receive a better education on basic economics by being forced to play Railroad tycoon than what they are learning in High School and college, if any.



> The gulf oil spill was like our Dust Bowl.



Not even close.  Oil stopped flowing, 10 days later the slicks are all but gone.  The marshes will be the hardest hit but will be back in 10 years tops.  More like 5... which is long compared to the weeks to months it will take to be clean in the ocean.

The real damage to the oil industry has all come at the hands of the federal government by the moritorium driving jobs away.  Guarantee you that Obama has lost every oil producing and gulf coast states.

<><><>

It's interesting, for weeks we've been teetering on the edge, yet we haven't slid over.  This is a good thing on one hand, because people who can, are still able to prepare for the economic collapse that is to come.  On the other hand, what is being done to keep it from happening.  You can't reasonably say that nothing is being done, because we're like a duck right now, calm and cool on the surface to calm the others, but underneath, our legs are scrabbling like crazy.

So why haven't we fallen yet I wonder?  What variables have been missed?


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## JakeStarkey (Aug 2, 2010)

Documentation, please, that the oil slicks are almost all gone.

This is what I mean about the reactionaries.  They post an assertion as if it were a fact.

Proof, please, from a reputable source, Fizz, or just continue to be a buffoon.


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## Truthmatters (Aug 2, 2010)

Yurt said:


> Truthmatters said:
> 
> 
> > The gulf oil spill was like our Dust Bowl.
> ...



Go get your numbers and lets compare the job loss


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## JakeStarkey (Aug 2, 2010)

Yurt will make an assertion, truthmatters, but he will not support it.  That is what the reactionaries of the far right do.  They follow the Limbaugh Rules of deceit.  Watch him now weasel.


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## Truthmatters (Aug 2, 2010)

JenyEliza said:


> I'm inclined to believe we are more like October 1987 than October 1932.  I'm no economist, but I certainly do NOT believe the BP Gulf Oil Spill is equivalent to the Dust Bowl.  The DB wasn't a few months long event.  It dragged out years and years....and it nearly destroyed this country agriculturally and economically.
> 
> The BP event will cetainly take years of recovery time, but the largest part of the damage has been contained in just a few short months, rather than years.   Also, the BP event was MAN MADE, *not* a natural disaster like the DB.
> 
> ...



Dust Bowl - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

6 years.

The oil spill will effect this country for more than 6 years.


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## Big Fitz (Aug 2, 2010)

> The oil spill will effect this country for more than 6 years.



Doubt it.  But the employment devastation is still 98% government caused.  Tourist industry will be rebounded by Christmas, assuming the economy doesn't fail thanks to the utter incompetence of Little Timmy Geithner and Co.


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## JakeStarkey (Aug 2, 2010)

Fizzle write "employment devastation is still 98% government caused."  What a stupid comment.  Pulls it out of his ass, not attribution, no nothing, as well as Fizzle "thinks" the BP spill will not last more than six years.

STFU if you can't answer questions honestly and decently.

No wonder the Far Right is in trouble with folks like you defending it..


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## Truthmatters (Aug 2, 2010)

Big Fitz said:


> > The oil spill will effect this country for more than 6 years.
> 
> 
> 
> Doubt it.  But the employment devastation is still 98% government caused.  Tourist industry will be rebounded by Christmas, assuming the economy doesn't fail thanks to the utter incompetence of Little Timmy Geithner and Co.



Tell us the facts behind your assumption


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## JakeStarkey (Aug 2, 2010)

Fizzle has no "facts", just big hole in his butt that dumps out stupid assertions.

Get him some waste paper, please.


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## Truthmatters (Aug 2, 2010)

He has to wipe his own ass with his own paper.


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## Big Fitz (Aug 2, 2010)

Truthmatters said:


> Big Fitz said:
> 
> 
> > > The oil spill will effect this country for more than 6 years.
> ...


You're the one saying that this is the dustbowl.  Find somewhere where an oilspill caused more than a 1-2 year damage to jobs or tourism.  

The Dust Bowl was a crisis that lasted from continually used farming techniques, combined with the hottest dryest years on record in the 1930's.  The techniques were not changed, and destroyed the soil the entire time, causign the problem to continue.  The oil spill has ended, even faster than the mexican Ixtoc 1 oilspill in the 1979.  Oh, haven't heard of that one?  

Spill in 1979 was bigger ï¿½ but not necessarily worse | Deepwater Horizon | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

They do an attempt to make this politically less detrimental to the govt today, but... I love some bits out of there.



> The ill-fated well, drilled in the Bay of Campeche near Mexico, blew out in 1979 and poured oil into the Gulf for 295 days. Before it was capped, the well pumped out about 140 million gallons of crude, more than 3 million barrels.





> Even so, the mega-spill is remembered more for its damage to tourism and for the comment by Clements, who owned the company that furnished the rig, than for its environmental effects.





> Michel, a geochemist who helped in the Texas cleanup of the Ixtoc spill, said the oil-smeared areas appeared to rebound within months.
> 
> Nature also lent an unexpected hand with some heavy storms that washed away most of the remaining oil.
> 
> ï¿½The impact was short-lived,ï¿½ Michel said.



So, no.  This is not the dust bowl.  They are completely dissimilar and the moritorium stands to be the longest lasting damage causing effect because it sabotages the American Energy sector BY DESIGN of this progressofascist administration.


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## JakeStarkey (Aug 2, 2010)

Fizzle actually trots out facts.  Uses them poorly and inaccurately but at least trots them out.

Good for Fizzle.


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## Truthmatters (Aug 2, 2010)

They both caused massive job loss.

The job numbers have been effected by this job loss just like the GD job numbers were effected.


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