# Anyone selling their stocks tomorrow?



## MarathonMike (Mar 6, 2018)

Not me, I'll be buying. There are some great trading stocks that just went on sale in After Hours.


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## Toro (Mar 6, 2018)

The market is in a trading range until proven otherwise.


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## MarathonMike (Mar 6, 2018)

I was referring to the effect of the Cohn resignation on the stock market which will certainly spur selling tomorrow at least.


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## Toro (Mar 6, 2018)

It's irrelevant.


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## gipper (Mar 6, 2018)

No not yet.


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## Geaux4it (Mar 6, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


> I was referring to the effect of the Cohn resignation on the stock market which will certainly spur selling tomorrow at least.



Bet the market is up 200 points tomorrow

-Geaux


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## Rambunctious (Mar 6, 2018)

It's time to buy not sell.....


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## gipper (Mar 6, 2018)

Be careful. The billionaires are playing games with the stock market.


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## MarathonMike (Mar 6, 2018)

Toro said:


> It's irrelevant.


The Dow Futures and After Hours trading prices would disagree with you.


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## depotoo (Mar 6, 2018)

gipper said:


> Be careful. The billionaires are playing games with the stock market.


That I fully believe.  But I think there are now 2 sides in this war, now.  Previously, it was one.


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## expat_panama (Mar 6, 2018)

Geaux4it said:


> MarathonMike said:
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> > I was referring to the effect of the Cohn resignation on the stock market which will certainly spur selling tomorrow at least.
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there are a lot of people willing to take you on w/ that bet:
	

	
	
		
		

		
			




Do you really mean this or are you just ranting?


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## MarathonMike (Mar 6, 2018)

Geaux4it said:


> MarathonMike said:
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> > I was referring to the effect of the Cohn resignation on the stock market which will certainly spur selling tomorrow at least.
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I know what you're saying. It's not unusual to see huge negative to positive swings these days.


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## william the wie (Mar 6, 2018)

Mike, the drought that would become the dustbowl was already a relatively minor problem when Smoot and Hawley got their Tariff through in 1930. So, this primarily agricultural tariff bill was ineffectual, Congress can not make it rain. Therefore the standard Tariff economics rant is of dubious credibility. Political and economic actors always game the system. Given the fragility of the EU and the Chinese government's desire for increased out migration Trump has the high cards. That does not mean he cannot misplay them nor that the standard model cannot cause enormous trouble because our "elites" know as fact many myths. However random bets on the stock market is dangerous under all circumstances.


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## MarathonMike (Mar 6, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Mike, the drought that would become the dustbowl was already a relatively minor problem when Smoot and Hawley got their Tariff through in 1930. So, this primarily agricultural tariff bill was ineffectual, Congress can not make it rain. Therefore the standard Tariff economics rant is of dubious credibility. Political and economic actors always game the system. Given the fragility of the EU and the Chinese government's desire for increased out migration Trump has the high cards. That does not mean he cannot misplay them nor that the standard model cannot cause enormous trouble because our "elites" know as fact many myths. However random bets on the stock market is dangerous under all circumstances.


If there were any signs of real movement toward a new tough Tariff policy I would definitely not be buying into that. I am saying that the resignation of Gary Cohn is not a good reason to sell stocks. That to me is emotion based selling, rather than a reasonable reaction to, say policy changes in trade or interest rate hikes.


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## william the wie (Mar 6, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


> william the wie said:
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> > Mike, the drought that would become the dustbowl was already a relatively minor problem when Smoot and Hawley got their Tariff through in 1930. So, this primarily agricultural tariff bill was ineffectual, Congress can not make it rain. Therefore the standard Tariff economics rant is of dubious credibility. Political and economic actors always game the system. Given the fragility of the EU and the Chinese government's desire for increased out migration Trump has the high cards. That does not mean he cannot misplay them nor that the standard model cannot cause enormous trouble because our "elites" know as fact many myths. However random bets on the stock market is dangerous under all circumstances.
> ...


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## william the wie (Mar 9, 2018)

But why bother? pick any two criteria of undervaluation and play the long game it wins.


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## MarathonMike (Mar 9, 2018)

william the wie said:


> But why bother? pick any two criteria of undervaluation and play the long game it wins.



True, but why not do both? I have a core holdings account and a trading account. And occasionally I shuffle money around in my 401K. All three have positive results, and it satisfies the gambler streak in me.


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## Mac1958 (Mar 10, 2018)

Toro said:


> The market is in a trading range until proven otherwise.


I'd say the bias is upwards, and that's how we're positioned right now (with hedges).  But yeah, these daily drama meltdowns are getting kinda silly.  I've had a couple of clients call, and my response is usually "the market is just having a little temper tantrum", and they calm down.  The fundamentals are very good at the moment overall.  At this moment.  At this very moment....


.


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## MarathonMike (Mar 10, 2018)

Mac1958 said:


> Toro said:
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I'm curious, if you are able to divulge, what are your 'hedges' currently and at what percentage?


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## Mac1958 (Mar 10, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


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All I'm doing is trailing stop limit sell orders, right now at 6%.   We had them at 5% on all accounts prior to the drop a few weeks ago and it worked perfectly.

I'm basing this on a feeling that if the market drops 6% it'll drop quite a bit more.
.


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## william the wie (Mar 10, 2018)

I don't know his hedges but diseconomies of scale are common in managed funds so why use them as a model?


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## MarathonMike (Mar 10, 2018)

Mac1958 said:


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Interesting. But do you really mean on every equity position you had a 6 % stop? And if you sell, when do you start buying back in?


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## MarathonMike (Mar 10, 2018)

william the wie said:


> I don't know his hedges but diseconomies of scale are common in managed funds so why use them as a model?


I'm not. I just like to ask questions from people who are knowledgeable about the markets, like you and Mac. I know what I know, but there is a plenty I don't know.


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## Mac1958 (Mar 10, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


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No, I keep a certain percentage of equities static, always in there, because I only want to put so much into timing.  It depends on the portfolio.  So our 80/20 model has 10% VT and 10% SCHB, both with the stops.  Getting back in?  Well, that's a gut thing.  I was happy to see the correction, and probably would have preferred 15% to 18%, but I didn't (and don't) think we're near a bear market.  So I bought back in at 10% down, took a 2% hit willingly, and back up we go.  

If I had thought it might be a bear I would have waited quite a bit longer, but the fundamentals of the economy are fine.  So now we're set up for growth and gradually increasing interest rates.  When the 10-year hits around 3.20%, I'll take another hard look.  Black Swan notwithstanding, I like the market right now.  For now.
.


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## william the wie (Mar 10, 2018)

The real mystery at this point is why is the 10 year treasury inching up in price instead of the much more usual inching down for treasuries in the run.


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## Mac1958 (Mar 10, 2018)

william the wie said:


> The real mystery at this point is why is the 10 year treasury inching up in price instead of the much more usual inching down for treasuries in the run.


I trust the bond market as a barometer more than the stock market, and I think it's not yet convinced about the strength of the economy.  Understandable, given the last 10 years.  But my guess is that there's strength.
.


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## william the wie (Mar 10, 2018)

Mac1958 said:


> william the wie said:
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> > The real mystery at this point is why is the 10 year treasury inching up in price instead of the much more usual inching down for treasuries in the run.
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The real problem seems to be location. State finances in NY and IL are becoming an ever bigger mess and I would expect it is having bad effects on the people actually completing trades. Having state, local and federal taxes go up on you with a bad local real estate market thrown in to complete your joy has got to be corrosive for morale.


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## blastoff (Mar 14, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


> william the wie said:
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> > But why bother? pick any two criteria of undervaluation and play the long game it wins.
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LOL...thought I was reading a post I forgot I made!


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## Picaro (Mar 15, 2018)

lol yet another thread with people all running different and opposing strategies, and yet nobody ever losing money. Hilarious.


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## MarathonMike (Mar 15, 2018)

Picaro said:


> lol yet another thread with people all running different and opposing strategies, and yet nobody ever losing money. Hilarious.


What's really funny is that is entirely possible.


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## Picaro (Mar 15, 2018)

The tariffs implemented by Trump are modest, nothing 'tough' about them; they aren't going to have much effect on domestic prices in real life, but the companies will raise them just because they can fool the public into believing their costs went up as a result, which is rubbish; they never pass on decreases in their costs anyway, so not having tariffs doesn't save the consumers anything, never has before. The effects of tariffs should be zero.


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## Picaro (Mar 15, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


> Picaro said:
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Actually it isn't. Gamblers are just notorious liars, is all.


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## william the wie (Mar 15, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


> Picaro said:
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If my issues are put to me I just write calls. They are also worth more dead than alive so don't throw me in that briar patch.


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## MarathonMike (Mar 15, 2018)

Picaro said:


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Actually it is. Making money in the stock market is less about what strategy you use than it is how you execute that strategy. It doesn't matter to me at all whether you believe that or me.


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## william the wie (Mar 15, 2018)

Graham-Newman beat the Dow 4 to one 1926-56. Even the different forms of the Dogs of the Dow tend to beat the averages by highly significant percentages. The downside is that home runs are very rare, only one for Graham-Newman in 31 years.


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## Picaro (Mar 15, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


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Yes, I know all about how vast the fortunes are on paper with the genius of hindsight and cherry picking min-maxing games. Nobody loses money in Vegas, either, yet the place is full of luxury casinos and has been for decades. Amazing. Wall Street can only function if the losers outnumber the winners; hate to break that news to you, after you've read all those wonderful books touting up that casino and learned a lot of words that make it sound all 'rational' n stuff; race track touts do the sames thing.


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## expat_panama (Mar 15, 2018)

Picaro said:


> ... Nobody loses money in Vegas, either, yet the place is full of luxury casinos and has been for decades...


 Maybe the fact that casino owners do well shows  there's a very big difference between gambling and holding shares in casino corporations.

Of course nobody knows the for sure what the future holds, but it's not that big of a risk to bet that total value of U.S. corporations will grow while the population of the U.S. increases and creates new wealth.  It's what's been happening for hundreds of years:


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## william the wie (Mar 15, 2018)

Picaro said:


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Successful gamblers and there are some are those who go for the more certain win. Place and Show also pay off if the horse picked wins. Those who make a living off lotteries use seldom picked number sequences and the state lotteries even publish the less picked sequences. Small semi-consistent wins with less share outs is the usual result. but successful gambling requires both a boatload of discipline and a high tolerance for boredom.


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## william the wie (Mar 15, 2018)

expat_panama said:


> Picaro said:
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boredom tolerance and discipline is the key.


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## expat_panama (Mar 15, 2018)

william the wie said:


> boredom tolerance and discipline is the key.


--and here I thought I was the only one that felt that way.  Aircraft pilots describe their job the same way, as being hours of prolonged boredom punctuated by moments of shear terror.


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## william the wie (Mar 15, 2018)

expat_panama said:


> william the wie said:
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My strategy is so heavily weighted towards boredom that there is nearly zero terror. The meltdown barely touched us but it has been 25 years since we have had any debt. Gail's meltdown over a sewer pipeline breaking below our slab right after she got the house painted with Rhino-Shield was the most excitement we've had in years. And if worry keeps you awake at night research my current put portfolio is NYMT, NGD, FRO, CPLP & CMRE. If that doesn't put you to sleep you need medical help.


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## Picaro (Mar 16, 2018)

expat_panama said:


> Picaro said:
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Graphs!!! They're, like, all mathy n stuff, really mean a lot. I love graphs!

https://www.theonion.com/blue-line-jumps-11-percent-1819565647






*Ecstatic investors are comparing the blue line to the left side of a very tall, steep blue mountain.*


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## william the wie (Mar 16, 2018)

Get "The Stock Trader's Almanac" for graphs galore


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## expat_panama (Mar 16, 2018)

william the wie said:


> NYMT, NGD, FRO, CPLP & CMRE


My entire portfolio is 3 ETF's that emulate the S&P500, the NASDAQ, and the Russel 2000.  The way I make it interesting is timing surges and dips.  It worked great for about a year and then the past month has turned me all around.  





william the wie said:


> Get "The Stock Trader's Almanac" for graphs galore


tx, I'll check that out.  I'm moving back over to Trade Station now that my two favorite brokers Scottrade & TDAmeritrade merged; hopefully Tradestation will make up for what I've lost w/ the merger.


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## william the wie (Mar 16, 2018)

I created a thread about the cashflow into the capital markets but in simple terms I figure that May calls should be quite profitable to me if I get issues put to me in April but July or even August will be even more profitable.


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## MarathonMike (Mar 16, 2018)

william the wie said:


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In my youthful exuberance I would try to go for the home run picks, but I learned from painful failures that to be successful, you need to be a "singles" hitter if you want to be a successful trader.


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## Picaro (Mar 17, 2018)

If think interest rates are going up then just short utilities. Why make it hard?


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## expat_panama (Mar 17, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


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What I run up against is the way market conditions change so radically at times.  One trading pattern may work just fine for months and then out of nowhere all the signs pointing one way suddenly point the other.  

My take: uncertain policy makes for unstable markets.   The two decades from '85 to '05 were relatively reasonable w/ what to expect (not withstanding Oct. '87).   Ever since '09 it's been "nobody knows nothin" ---institutional managers throwing up their hands while the masses flee to indexed ETF's.


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## william the wie (Mar 17, 2018)

expat_panama said:


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I find the opposite is true. I was doing an informal internship in 87 while I was going to UNF to get my degree in finance. Everyone had an easy out until suddenly they didn't, the same was true for LTCM, Dotcom and the housing bubble. Certainty causes crashes. The supply of idiots with money is of necessity limited and they are the ones who lose the money that permits the stability.


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## Picaro (Mar 17, 2018)

Bailouts and limited liability keep the markets solvent, so the supply of money is endless, at least for now. that's the only reason those nifty graphs show constant 'growth', though the interpretations of them are just wrong as well, as they don't reflect the huge losses experienced by the 'outsiders', just the 'wins' by insiders propped up by subsidies, bailouts, and tax exemptions, etc., etc. There is no real life continuity in market gains. Without the limited liability scam and artificial restrictions on short selling, nobody would dump nearly as much money in stocks, especially given how grossly over-capitalized most of the dwindling handful of 'market movers' are now.


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## william the wie (Mar 17, 2018)

Picaro said:


> Bailouts and limited liability keep the markets solvent, so the supply of money is endless, at least for now. that's the only reason those nifty graphs show constant 'growth', though the interpretations of them are just wrong as well, as they don't reflect the huge losses experienced by the 'outsiders', just the 'wins' by insiders propped up by subsidies, bailouts, and tax exemptions, etc., etc. There is no real life continuity in market gains. Without the limited liability scam and artificial restrictions on short selling, nobody would dump nearly as much money in stocks, especially given how grossly over-capitalized most of the dwindling handful of 'market movers' are now.



The price rises of the 10 year treasury says you're wrong. That is a flight to safety. Sessions' firing of McCabe was timed for maximum effect on the deep state. When he has the full IG report he can and will arrest Mueller and his team for use of perjured testimony to obtain warrants. The rollovers for plea deals will include many D members of congress. At which point his threat to sequester DOJ grants to sanctuary states and cities will cause default in many blue states. If, as he hopes, this destroys the mid-term correction the Ds are in big trouble. A side effect of destroying the hopes of the Ds is that the markets will crash to some degree.


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## Manonthestreet (Mar 17, 2018)

my 401 is marginally ahead since the downturn/stall.  I am heavily weighted toward small cap, and co stock. 
3% large cap, 8% bond


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## MarathonMike (Mar 17, 2018)

expat_panama said:


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I have a good friend who pays a fund manager 5%


william the wie said:


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LTCM was a remarkable example of why you don't hand your money over to someone else. If you want to invest in index funds, do it yourself. If you want to trade individual stocks do it yourself. One of my best friends pays a guy 5% of his account value to manage his money. I told him I think he's nuts but I guess he's happy with the performance of his account.


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## william the wie (Mar 17, 2018)

Loss minimization is far more important than profit maximization.


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## expat_panama (Mar 17, 2018)

william the wie said:


> ...The price rises of the 10 year treasury says you're wrong. That is a flight to safety...


Some how that doesn't jump out at me.  What I got is 10-year T-bills seeing rising interest rates--




--which means nobody's buying 'em at the older lower rates and the Fed's are forced to pay more to borrow by selling a given amount at maturity for falling prices.  That means bond values are falling.


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## expat_panama (Mar 17, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


> ...he's happy with the performance of his account.


Sounds like a buddy of mine who said he was happy paying someone else to manage _his _money --after all, those annual reports looked just fine.  Then 2009 came along...


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## william the wie (Mar 17, 2018)

expat_panama said:


> william the wie said:
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> > ...The price rises of the 10 year treasury says you're wrong. That is a flight to safety...
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## william the wie (Mar 17, 2018)

expat_panama said:


> william the wie said:
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Not since the latest rate hike. 3.0 yield drops to 2.8 in less than a month, when the new Fed chair got appointed to rein in wage push inflation?

What nobody realized as recently as early Feb.is that the differences in the effects of the tax bill state to state would be so much greater and hit so much quicker than anybody anticipated, including me and I was dismissed as a chicken little on the subject. NJ, IL and CA are on life support because of dropping after all state, local and federal taxes take home pay. Here in FL the unsolicited bids for my house went up by 50% the day after the tax bill passed. Home stead tax exemption increases may also be on the ballot this year.


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## MarathonMike (Mar 17, 2018)

william the wie said:


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Wow 50%? Dang son, are you going to move? I'd have to seriously consider it.


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## william the wie (Mar 17, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


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Until and unless we can get a house that makes it easier for Gail to go to Mayo, my answer is wait and see and Gail's answer is hell no. Money is nice but not as nice as not having to break in another wife. It has taken 40 years to get her up to the crappy level of training I now enjoy.


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