# Take that,  Nate Silver!



## Zander (Oct 31, 2012)

Well well well. I added this piece of data to my  "Five-30-Ate"  analysis  (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....



> Since election day was standardized in 1845 there have been 6 presidential elections held on November 6th and Republicans have won all six.
> 
> 
> 1860 - Abraham Lincoln over Stephen Douglas
> ...



Obviously that is just a scientific as Nate's "analysis" - which is to say it is non-scientific. 


Republicans Have Won Every November 6th Presidential Election Since 1860


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## R.D. (Oct 31, 2012)

Let's hope we can continue the streak


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## Zander (Oct 31, 2012)

It's science and math.  It can't be beat. Nate Silver told me so.....


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## mamooth (Oct 31, 2012)

The poll aggregators, 10/31/2012. All of them agree with Nate Silver, which makes the right's NateHate look bizarre.

RCP  O281-R257
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Pollster.com  O253-R206
Pollster: Pictures, Videos, Breaking News

Five-thirty-eight.com (Nate Silver)  O299-R239
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Princeton Election consortium  O318-R220
Princeton Election Consortium &#8212; A first draft of electoral history

AP  O271-R206
AP Analysis: Advantage Obama in race for electoral votes

InTrade  O294-R244
2012 Electoral Map - The Intrade Forecast 10/31/2012

BetFair  O305-235
US Presidential Election: Seven days to go, where do we stand? | Betting @ Betfair

Electoral Vote  O280-R206
ElectoralVote

270 to Win  O275-R263
America's Electoral Map: A 2012 Election Forecast

Votamatic  O332-R206
VOTAMATIC | Forecasts and Polling Analysis for the 2012 Presidential Election


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## Zander (Oct 31, 2012)

mamooth said:


> The poll aggregators, 10/31/2012. All of them agree with Nate Silver, which makes the right's NateHate look bizarre.
> 
> RCP  O281-R257
> RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups
> ...




I don't hate Nate, I don't care enough to hate him. 

Maybe he hates himself?   He will either be remembered as "that idiot who carried Obama's poll water" (75% chance of that) or "that boy genius who called his (count 'em!)  2nd!!  Election" (25% chance) ...  Yep, the Boy Genius has only done this once before.....


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## Luddly Neddite (Oct 31, 2012)

Zander said:


> It's science and math.  It can't be beat. Nate Silver told me so.....



I hope you're being sarcastic cuz that's really really dumb. 

But then, the right isn't known for their math or science, are they.


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## AceRothstein (Oct 31, 2012)

Zander said:


> I don't hate Nate, I don't care enough to hate him.



Yet you went out of your way to create a thread on an online message board about him.


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## Trajan (Oct 31, 2012)

Zander said:


> Well well well. I added this piece of data to my  "Five-30-Ate"  analysis  (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



that would be funny BUT,  Nate works for the *NY Times *, that's right, the NY- TIMES so, get back in your hate cave grandpa...


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## Leweman (Oct 31, 2012)

mamooth said:


> The poll aggregators, 10/31/2012. All of them agree with Nate Silver, which makes the right's NateHate look bizarre.
> 
> RCP  O281-R257
> RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups
> ...




the aggregate of a bunch of wrong polls is a wrong aggregate.  But keep pointing to the polls on Nov 7 if you want.


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## elvis (Oct 31, 2012)

What about the Washington Redskins record and elections?


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## Zander (Oct 31, 2012)

elvis said:


> What about the Washington Redskins record and elections?


Already in the numbers bub......

Here at Five-30-Ate we use the Redskins RB1 Runs per carry/games at home divided by the RB2 RPC divided by away games,  then multiply by 16 in series and parallel, and take the square root of the product for a whole series of other calculation, projections and wild ass guesses. It's all very scientific and in no way politically motivated. We are scientists here at Five-30-Ate, scientists who are dedicated to the scientific craft of aggregating polls, cherry picking data, and drawing erroneous conclusions. It's a science. We even wear lab coats! Here is a photo of our team!! Collaborating!! Scientifically!! 







At any rate, after applying the Washington Redskins formula to the 27th decimal point, Obama has a 97.2% chance of losing.


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## Oddball (Oct 31, 2012)

Zander said:


> elvis said:
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> > What about the Washington Redskins record and elections?
> ...


Merton Hanks agrees!


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## Moonglow (Oct 31, 2012)

I would hold my breath on that one.


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## Amazed (Oct 31, 2012)

AceRothstein said:


> Zander said:
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> > I don't hate Nate, I don't care enough to hate him.
> ...



Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....funny you loons never talk about that


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## Amazed (Oct 31, 2012)

Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....why won't any of you Lefty's acknowledge that?


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## AceRothstein (Oct 31, 2012)

Amazed said:


> Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....why won't any of you Lefty's acknowledge that?



Can you point out where that is on his site? I'm not able to locate. Not trying to call you out, I'd just like to see that information.


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## Amazed (Oct 31, 2012)

AceRothstein said:


> Amazed said:
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> > Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....why won't any of you Lefty's acknowledge that?
> ...



Its on the header to his other EV Map, the header is red.


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## mamooth (Oct 31, 2012)

Amazed said:


> Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....why won't any of you Lefty's acknowledge that?



Of course we acknowledge it. What's the point? We understand statistics, so we understand what the leaners mean, how it would be dishonest and misleading to not take them into account.


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## tjvh (Oct 31, 2012)

Who the fuck is Nate Silver?


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## Oddball (Oct 31, 2012)

mamooth said:


> Amazed said:
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> > Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....why won't any of you Lefty's acknowledge that?
> ...


If you understood statistics half as well as you claim to, you wouldn't be a Goebbels warming moonbat.


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## Amazed (Oct 31, 2012)

mamooth said:


> Amazed said:
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> 
> > Nate has the hard EV count at 185-180.....why won't any of you Lefty's acknowledge that?
> ...



Your dishonesty lies in the fact that you only tout the map that "proves" your contention that Obama is "cruising".....RCP has it 206-191-----a bigger lead for Obama...but Nate is your hero.


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## Old Rocks (Oct 31, 2012)

Well, it seems that the majority of polls are pointing to a second term for the President, by a margin of 15 to 60 electorial votes. Going to be interesting to see how accurate they are. I will still go with my early estimate of 300+ electorial votes for Obama, but a weak +.


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## mamooth (Oct 31, 2012)

Amazed said:
			
		

> Your dishonesty lies in the fact that you only tout the map that "proves" your contention that Obama is "cruising".....RCP has it 206-191-----a bigger lead for Obama...but Nate is your hero.



Given I've been consistently posting a list of 10 poll aggregators, that's a dishonest thing for you to say. I've done the precise opposite of only quoting one guy, yet you accuse me of only quoting one guy.

I've posted my list of poll aggregators several times. No need to post it again until tomorrow, when new data is factored in. They all show Obama ahead. Some more so than Nate Silver, some less. That makes all the NateHate here look bizarre. Why single out Nate Silver for hating, given he's one of many saying the same thing?


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## Oddball (Oct 31, 2012)

mamooth said:


> Why single out Nate Silver for hating, given he's one of many saying the same thing?


Why single out Nate to shove your head up his ass, when the RCP numbers, which are now trending the other way, have been the coin of the realm for the last several months?

Don't answer that....We already know you're banging up the Kool-Aid.


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## Amazed (Oct 31, 2012)

mamooth said:


> I've posted my list of poll aggregators several times. No need to post it again until tomorrow, when new data is factored in. They all show Obama ahead. Some more so than Nate Silver, some less. That makes all the NateHate here look bizarre. Why single out Nate Silver for hating, given he's one of many saying the same thing?



I don't hate anyone, but I have pointed how you lie.


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## mamooth (Oct 31, 2012)

Amazed said:


> I don't hate anyone, but I have pointed how you lie.



You know, you could have just admitted that you made a mistake. It wouldn't have killed you. Or you could have just kept silent.

But no, members of the conservative cult are forbidden to ever admit that they made a mistake and the liberal was right. Thus, you see things like this, the conservative choosing to elevate their their mistake into deliberate lying, all so they won't have to admit a mistake.


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## Sarah G (Oct 31, 2012)

Zander said:


> Well well well. I added this piece of data to my  "Five-30-Ate"  analysis  (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Inane, thy name is Zander.


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## mamooth (Oct 31, 2012)

Oddball said:


> Why single out Nate to shove your head up his ass, when the RCP numbers, which are now trending the other way, have been the coin of the realm for the last several months?



What is it with your fixation with Nate Silver? There's a reason I post 10 different poll aggregators, that reason being, unlike you, I'm not obsessed with Nate Silver. I do, however, find your obsession with him to be bizarre.



> Don't answer that....We already know you're banging up the Kool-Aid.



Given how firmly your mouth is affixed to the Republican rectum, you're in no position to be screaming how others are partisans. Mainly because you're all muffled, being that your mouth is so firmly affixed to the Republican rectum.


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## Amazed (Oct 31, 2012)

mamooth said:


> Amazed said:
> 
> 
> > I don't hate anyone, but I have pointed how you lie.
> ...



LOL, sorry kid, no mistake.

If you knew what the hard count was and chose to post the wish list you lied.

Its just that simple...but then you are just a hack.


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## Oddball (Oct 31, 2012)

mamooth said:


> Oddball said:
> 
> 
> > Why single out Nate to shove your head up his ass, when the RCP numbers, which are now trending the other way, have been the coin of the realm for the last several months?
> ...


I'm not fixated on him...But the leftloons like you who needed someone else to whisper sweet nothing polls in their ears after RCP started trending Romney's direction are...


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## Old Rocks (Oct 31, 2012)

President Obama   290    Governor Romney  248

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Romney has a very tenuous lead in Virginia, and may see that evaporate before Tuesday.


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## Amazed (Oct 31, 2012)

Old Rocks said:


> President Obama   290    Governor Romney  248
> 
> RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups
> 
> Romney has a very tenuous lead in Virginia, and may see that evaporate before Tuesday.



Another lying old man, post the real map Gramps,not the wish list.


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## JimH52 (Oct 31, 2012)

Zander said:


> Well well well. I added this piece of data to my  "Five-30-Ate"  analysis  (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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## JimH52 (Oct 31, 2012)

You are killing me Zander...


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## Liability (Oct 31, 2012)

Leweman said:


> mamooth said:
> 
> 
> > The poll aggregators, 10/31/2012. All of them agree with Nate Silver, which makes the right's NateHate look bizarre.
> ...




Ya mean 20 times wrong is wrong?

And the average of 20 times wrong is still wrong?


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## AceRothstein (Oct 31, 2012)

Amazed said:


> AceRothstein said:
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That isn't part of Silver's blog, it is a general NYT page.


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## TheGreatGatsby (Oct 31, 2012)

Nate Silver is a hack. I don't care if he called 49 of 50 states right in 08. That was the easiest race to call, I've ever seen. And I never looked into it, but I bet the one state he lost was Missouri b/c he was desperately hoping for Obama there.


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## Toro (Oct 31, 2012)

Zander said:


> Well well well. I added this piece of data to my  "Five-30-Ate"  analysis  (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Why do you say Silver is non-scientific?


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## Toro (Oct 31, 2012)

TheGreatGatsby said:


> Nate Silver is a hack. I don't care if he called 49 of 50 states right in 08. That was the easiest race to call, I've ever seen.



Yet, you're here pimping Rasmussen, who was horribly off in 10.


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## Amazed (Oct 31, 2012)

AceRothstein said:


> Amazed said:
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LOL....ok.

Denial.


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## tinydancer (Oct 31, 2012)

Zander said:


> Well well well. I added this piece of data to my  "Five-30-Ate"  analysis  (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Apologies. I just started a thread on this. I didn't connect your thread title with the trivia.

I'll let mine fall off the page. Pretty neat though.


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## AceRothstein (Oct 31, 2012)

Amazed said:


> AceRothstein said:
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> > Amazed said:
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Sorry man, there is nothing on this page that associates it with Silver.

The Electoral Map - Presidential Race Ratings and Swing States - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com


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## TheGreatGatsby (Oct 31, 2012)

TheGreatGatsby said:


> Nate Silver is a hack. I don't care if he called 49 of 50 states right in 08. That was the easiest race to call, I've ever seen. And I never looked into it, but I bet the one state he lost was Missouri b/c he was desperately hoping for Obama there.



It was Indiana. I was gonna guess that too b/c that was probably the biggest shocker. But it didn't fit my mood  Anyways, like I was saying; 08 was the easiest race ever to call. Libs start getting a hard-on that he was 49 of 50 in 08. He was just calling what he wanted to see. He's still calling what he wants to see and he'll be exposed as the hack he is.


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## TheGreatGatsby (Oct 31, 2012)

Toro said:


> Yet, you're here pimping Rasmussen, who was horribly off in 10.



I can't say I know what you're talking about. 10 states? What? Rasmussen has been the most accurate pollster in the last two presidential elections. No pollster is 100 percent accurate.


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## Toro (Nov 1, 2012)

TheGreatGatsby said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> > Yet, you're here pimping Rasmussen, who was horribly off in 10.
> ...



2010



> On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports &#8212; which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News &#8212; badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates. ...
> 
> What follows is a preliminary analysis of polls released to the public in the final 21 days of the campaign. Our process here is quite simple: we&#8217;ve taken all such polls in our database, and assessed how accurate they were, on average, in predicting the margin separating the two leading candidates in each race. For instance, a poll that had the Democrat winning by 2 percentage points in a race where the Republican actually won by 4 would have an error of 6 points.
> 
> ...



Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

Now, maybe Rasmussen has adjusted their methodology and will wind up as much better this year.  But holding that group up as an accurate pollster after 2010 is pretty silly.


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## TheGreatGatsby (Nov 1, 2012)

Funny that Nate Silver makes such sharp accusations and only calls it preliminary research. Makes you wonder what he's not telling you. For instance, he's not telling you that many of those polls he's cherry picking were done weeks and even months before the elction. He's a cherry-picking a-hole.


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## AceRothstein (Nov 1, 2012)

TheGreatGatsby said:


> Funny that Nate Silver makes such sharp accusations and only calls it preliminary research. Makes you wonder what he's not telling you. For instance, he's not telling you that many of those polls he's cherry picking were done weeks and even months before the elction. He's a cherry-picking a-hole.



Says right in the article, 3 weeks before the election.


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## Toro (Nov 1, 2012)

TheGreatGatsby said:


> Funny that Nate Silver makes such sharp accusations and only calls it preliminary research. Makes you wonder what he's not telling you. For instance, he's not telling you that many of those polls he's cherry picking were done weeks and even months before the elction. He's a cherry-picking a-hole.



That's wrong.


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## Zander (Nov 1, 2012)

Toro said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> > Well well well. I added this piece of data to my  "Five-30-Ate"  analysis  (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....
> ...



Lighten up Toro, it's a parody...

In 5 days Nate Silver will be remembered as the "boy genius" or the "fool". My money is on the latter.......

Here is the face of the man that the left has placed all of their hopes and dreams on....a 35 year old geek.  Maybe you guys can run him for POTUS in 2016?


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## Toro (Nov 1, 2012)

Zander said:


> Toro said:
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> > Zander said:
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Listen, Zander, I know the Kings aren't playing right now, but you have to put those pom-poms away!

You misunderstand what he does.   Silver does statistical analyses of polls, and applies probabilities of outcomes from his analyses.  I think that's interesting.  I haven't seen any evidence that his partisanship affects his analysis.  He said during the 2010 election that the Republicans were probably going to win big in the House.


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## Liability (Nov 1, 2012)

Toro said:


> Zander said:
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> > Toro said:
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He analyzes a number of polls.

He's a geek, but there is no real good science underlying his "work."

I didn't "analyze" a bunch of polls and yet I too thought that the GOP would win big in the midterms.   Not exactly a difficult bit of prognostication.

So what?


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## JimH52 (Nov 1, 2012)

Liability said:


> Toro said:
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Gee, your insight is INCREDIBLE!  You should start your own polling service.  

*Seriously....get a life*


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## JimH52 (Nov 1, 2012)

Before 10:00 pm ET Tuesday night, it will be over...


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## TheGreatGatsby (Nov 1, 2012)

Toro said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> > Lighten up Toro, it's a parody...
> ...



It was only a "probably?" And that's not supposed to be partisan when it turns out to be a blowout? Why does an extreme partisan blogger get the benefit of the doubt and being held by you as playing it straight and Rasmusen who is not even registered Republican and not blogging on their behalf held to a higher standard? You're a hack toro.


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## Dr.House (Nov 1, 2012)

Toro said:


> Zander said:
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> > Toro said:
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Nate picks and chooses which polls to include in his analysis...

Conveniently, all of them are heavily oversampled to the D side...

GIGO....


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## AceRothstein (Nov 1, 2012)

Dr.House said:


> Toro said:
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> > Zander said:
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Have anything to back that statement up?

Silver actually uses everything you'll see on RCP and more.


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## Dr.House (Nov 1, 2012)

AceRothstein said:


> Dr.House said:
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> > Toro said:
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Already posted days ago...

Have anything to back your claims up?


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## AceRothstein (Nov 1, 2012)

Dr.House said:


> AceRothstein said:
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That seems to be a consistent claim of yours. Maybe you can share a link to that post.

Since the information I posted is easily verifiable by going to both sites, you can figure it out quite easily if you've been using the internet for a few years.


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## Dr.House (Nov 1, 2012)

AceRothstein said:


> Dr.House said:
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So you got nothing, huh?

I figured as much...


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## AceRothstein (Nov 1, 2012)

Dr.House said:


> AceRothstein said:
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From the poster that never backs up anything he claims...

Here you go though you fucking stooge.  We'll use Ohio for this example.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

For the next one you'll have to do a little more work which I know you don't like doing. You'll have to go to state by state projections on the right side and find Ohio from the drop down. Then you'll have to click "more" to see all the polls Silver uses.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

I'll keep waiting for you to back up any of your claims. I doubt you ever will.


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## Dr.House (Nov 1, 2012)

AceRothstein said:


> Dr.House said:
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How does that back up your claim?

Show your math, fuckstain....


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## Dr.House (Nov 1, 2012)




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## AceRothstein (Nov 1, 2012)

Dr.House said:


> AceRothstein said:
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Math? What the fuck are you talking about. Since you didn't check either out, you'd easily see there are more polls listed on Silver's site than RCP. I don't expect you to look because  you'd see your initial claim is wrong and then you'd have to admit you made it up. It is what I expect of you at this point.


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## Dr.House (Nov 1, 2012)

The beauty of Nate's model is he can just point to it and say "Hey. i told you there was a 25% chance Romney could win."

I love the Nate Silver Security Blanket wearers...


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## Trajan (Nov 1, 2012)

Does Nate actually make his living on polling?


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## Zander (Nov 1, 2012)

Trajan said:


> Does Nate actually make his living on polling?


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## Zander (Nov 4, 2012)

BREAKING NEWS!!! BREAKING NEWS!!!!

It is getting worse for Obama here at Five-30-Ate *"Model".....another of our math, science, bias, and opinion factors has come in!!  

REDSKINS LOSE AT HOME

This exciting new development,  combined with Romney's narrow win in the "Family Circle" Cookie  recipe contest earlier today, and Romney's slight edge in the "Height" dept., along with the preponderance of other data and polling; points_* strongly *_to a decisive Romney win. The Five-30-Ate "Model" officially projects that Romney has an 89.7% chance of being the next POTUS.  Take that Nate Silver!!! 89.7% !!!

*The Five-30-Ate "Model" aggregates poll data then assigns a weight to them based upon confirmation bias, opinion, and plain whimsy. We then factor in various superstitions, oddball coincidences, and assorted silliness to arrive at a number that makes the greatest number of Non-NY Times readers applaud with joy.


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## Misty (Nov 4, 2012)

Nate silver is Obama's best friend. He will say anything to help his friend  :/


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## Salt Jones (Nov 4, 2012)

Zander said:


> Well well well. I added this piece of data to my  "Five-30-Ate"  analysis  (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....
> 
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> 
> ...



Right on time:

From Matthew Dowd, Republican political strategist, today on "This Week":

6. Dowd identifies three signs a campaign is losing

DOWD: every time you feel a losing campaign, these three things happen.  The first thing happens is, dont believe  the public polls are wrong.  Thats the first sign of a campaign thats about to lose.  The second thing, were going to change the nature of the electorate, and youre not seeing it reflected in the polls.  And the third thing is, the only poll that counts is Election Day.  When you hear those things, you know youre about to lose.

ABCNews.com - Breaking News, Latest News & Top Video News - ABC News


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## Amazed (Nov 4, 2012)

Salt Jones said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> > Well well well. I added this piece of data to my  "Five-30-Ate"  analysis  (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....
> ...



Nig you'll be bitched slapped Tuesday.


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## Salt Jones (Nov 4, 2012)

Amazed said:


> Salt Jones said:
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I've repeatedly told you, my name is not Nigel. As to the bitch slapping. Hahahahaha.


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## Amazed (Nov 4, 2012)

Salt Jones said:


> Amazed said:
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So many whites...so little time, eh nig?


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## Two Thumbs (Nov 4, 2012)

Zander said:


> Well well well. I added this piece of data to my  "Five-30-Ate"  analysis  (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Redskins rule is now a a HUGE factor

the rule;  If they win the last home game before the election the incumbent wins, if not, we have a new Pres.

Redskins lost.

This rule has come true 17 out of 18 times.

Now that's some reel scians there boys


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## Two Thumbs (Nov 4, 2012)

Zander said:


> BREAKING NEWS!!! BREAKING NEWS!!!!
> 
> It is getting worse for Obama here at Five-30-Ate *"Model".....another of our math, science, bias, and opinion factors has come in!!
> 
> ...


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## depotoo (Nov 4, 2012)

mamooth said:


> Amazed said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



and you've consistently NOT looked behind the polling data.


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## Old Rocks (Nov 4, 2012)

Chances of election  President Obama 85.5%   Governor Romney  14.5%

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Chances of election   President Obama  64%  Governor Romney  36%

Intrade - Home

President Obama   290  Governor Romney  248

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

*Well, if Romney wins this one, there will be a bunch of people with egg on their face.*


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## Liability (Nov 4, 2012)

Old Rocks said:


> Chances of election  President Obama 85.5%   Governor Romney  14.5%
> 
> Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
> 
> ...



^ Moldy Socks also sucks his thumb for temporary comfort.


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## Amazed (Nov 4, 2012)

Stupid people post EV maps with no toss ups...geezus.


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## Dr.House (Nov 4, 2012)

Old Rocks said:


> Chances of election  President Obama 85.5%   Governor Romney  14.5%
> 
> Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
> 
> ...



Nate changed his tune today...  It's only 85% if the popular vote is 0bama +1...  If it's Romney +1 the odds are 30%....



Psssst....   It's not gonna be 0bama +1 on the popular vote...


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## Old Rocks (Nov 4, 2012)

Ah well, 3 days to 7Nov12. Guess we will see who is stupid, and who needs comfort then.


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## Liability (Nov 4, 2012)

Old Rocks said:


> Ah well, 3 days to 7Nov12. Guess we will see who is stupid, and who needs comfort then.



No need for poll results to know you are stupid.  

And your obviously need comfort.

There is no other rational explanation for citing InTrade or Nate.


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## Mad Scientist (Nov 4, 2012)

Old Rocks said:


> Ah well, 3 days to 7Nov12. *Guess we will see who is stupid*, and who needs comfort then.


Guessing wrong doesn't make anyone "stupid", it just makes them wrong.

Besides, there are Guesses, Wild Ass Guesses and *Scientific* Wild Ass Guesses.

Nate Silver is making Scientific Wild Ass Guesses.


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## Mad Scientist (Nov 4, 2012)

Old Rocks said:


> Ah well, 3 days to 7Nov12. Guess we will see who is stupid, and who needs comfort then.


Did you know Ya Boi Nate is a "Climate Change Denier"?


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## Amazed (Nov 4, 2012)

Mad Scientist said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Ah well, 3 days to 7Nov12. *Guess we will see who is stupid*, and who needs comfort then.
> ...



Using the 2008 model.....s'ok though...we'll send him packing back to his jammies.


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## Zander (Nov 4, 2012)

Amazed said:


> Mad Scientist said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...



Nate the "boy genius" Silver was on the Wall Street Journal show today....bragging about Poker, baseball, and his 1 election "track record" (of course he failed to mention that he access to internal polling and Team Obama during the entire campaign!).  He didn't seem 85% confident to me.....he looked scared!!


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## Amazed (Nov 4, 2012)

Zander said:


> Amazed said:
> 
> 
> > Mad Scientist said:
> ...



He is taking it for the team this time around....Obama is fucked and most people know it.


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## Dr.House (Nov 4, 2012)

Old Rocks said:


> Ah well, 3 days to 7Nov12. Guess we will see who is stupid, and who needs comfort then.



Gonna throw Nate under the bus for misleading you wingnuts?


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## mamooth (Nov 4, 2012)

Nate has Obama at 85.5% now. You'd have to be particularly retarded or dishonest to call that walking back ... but look who's talking.

RCP has Obama at +0.5% in the national vote. Looks like President Obama will walk away with the popular vote as well. No wonder all the righties here are having meltdowns. Here, let's get 'em a little meltier.

RCP  O290-R248
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Pollster.com  O277-R191
Pollster: Pictures, Videos, Breaking News

Five-thirty-eight.com (Nate Silver)  O306.4-R231.6  (85.5%)
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Princeton Election consortium (Sam Wang)  O303-R235  (98.4%)
Princeton Election Consortium &#8212; A first draft of electoral history

Election Analytics  O302.6-R235.4
Presidential Election 2012 | University of Illinois

Electoral Vote  O281-R206
ElectoralVote

ElectionProjection  O290-R248
2012 Election Polls, Daily Poll Report - Election Projection


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## Amazed (Nov 4, 2012)

mamooth said:


> Nate has Obama at 85.5% now. You'd have to be particularly retarded or dishonest to call that walking back ... but look who's talking.
> 
> RCP has Obama at +0.5% in the national vote. Looks like President Obama will walk away with the popular vote as well. No wonder all the righties here are having meltdowns. Here, let's get 'em a little meltier.
> 
> ...



Stupid people who support voter suppression post EV maps with no toss ups


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## mamooth (Nov 4, 2012)

Mad Scientist said:


> Did you know Ya Boi Nate



First, we understand that you on the right do the messiah thing all the time, but try to understand that we on the left don't share your need for daddy-figures. When Nate screws it up, we let him know, and it doesn't bother us at all.



> is a "Climate Change Denier"?



Dead wrong. You can read Dr. Mann explaining it. Nate is wrong on a certain point, but he's no denialist.

Michael E. Mann: FiveThirtyEight: The Number of Things Nate Silver Gets Wrong About Climate Change


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## mamooth (Nov 4, 2012)

Amazed said:


> Stupid people who support voter suppression post EV maps with no toss ups



Cuckoo, cuckoo, cuckoo, cuckoo, cuckoo, cuckoo, cuckoo, cuckoo, cuckoo, ...


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## Amazed (Nov 4, 2012)

mamooth said:


> Amazed said:
> 
> 
> > Stupid people who support voter suppression post EV maps with no toss ups
> ...



My point exactly, you are an idiot.

Thanks for making my point.


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## Zander (Nov 5, 2012)

BREAKING NEWS!!! BREAKING NEWS!!!

The Final piece of data is in!!! Gnocchi the election-predicting pet squirrel from South Carolina, ate 9 nuts from his Romney bowl versus only 5 eaten from his Obama bowl!!! Like Nate "the boy Genius" Silver, this nut eating squirrel correctly predicted Obama's 2008 win.  This Shit is OVAH!!! 







The Five-30-Ate "model" now indicates that Romney has a 99.87% chance of winning the Presidency.


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## Trajan (Nov 5, 2012)

its one thing to mess with Chuck, but NEVER, EVER, mess with Gnocchi......just sayin'


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## AceRothstein (Nov 6, 2012)

Take what? Nate Silver owns you assholes.


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## Old Rocks (Nov 6, 2012)

Well, Nate Silver and the RCP seemed actually to have underestimated the margin of the President's win. 

Hey Zander, you like your crow boiled or fryed?


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## Zander (Nov 9, 2012)

Old Rocks said:


> Well, Nate Silver and the RCP seemed actually to have underestimated the margin of the President's win.
> 
> Hey Zander, you like your crow boiled or fryed?



I'll take it roasted over butternut squash with a bottle of Caymus...


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## JimH52 (Nov 16, 2012)

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> > Zander said:
> ...



So Zander, how much money did you lose?


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## jillian (Nov 16, 2012)

Zander said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Well, Nate Silver and the RCP seemed actually to have underestimated the margin of the President's win.
> ...


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## JimH52 (Nov 16, 2012)

JimH52 said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> > Toro said:
> ...



*Nate Silver for President in 2016!  *He can run against _The Donald_, another rich, white, arrogant Republican.


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## Sallow (Nov 16, 2012)

Zander said:


> Well well well. I added this piece of data to my  "Five-30-Ate"  analysis  (my very own "poll aggregation" site) and it is the final piece of "science" that puts Mitt way over the top - It now appears that Romney has an 84.9% chance of winning the electoral college and popular vote. Once I get the data from the Pizza Hut and Dunkin Donuts coffee cup surveys, the analysis will be complete, but at this point, it's really over. Obama will be unemployed soon....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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