# Official Dow 10,000 thread



## DavidS

So, the market is rallying beyond all hopes and dreams and is up 10%+ since last week, which means we're well on our way to DOW 10,000.

I believe we'll see DOW 10,000 sometime during the summer. So, any of you believe we'll see DOW 10,000 this year?


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## xsited1

DavidS said:


> So, the market is rallying beyond all hopes and dreams and is up 10%+ since last week, which means we're well on our way to DOW 10,000.
> 
> I believe we'll see DOW 10,000 sometime during the summer. So, any of you believe we'll see DOW 10,000 this year?



Yes, I do.  I am invested in stocks again since the government has poured trillions of dollars into the market (money we don't have, BTW).  It reminds me of the Chrysler bail-out so many years ago.  I will be taking my profits out of the middle, however.  I don't expect the rally to last unless the Obama Administration and the Democratically-controlled Congress change their evil spending ways.


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## johnrocks

Call me a pessimist but I think we will see 6000 before we see 10000, because of what xsited said pretty much, people are going to make some profits and bail when the government cheese ends and then we will also see some kick ass inflation that will exceed any gains for the next several years.


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## auditor0007

johnrocks said:


> Call me a pessimist but I think we will see 6000 before we see 10000, because of what xsited said pretty much, people are going to make some profits and bail when the government cheese ends and then we will also see some kick ass inflation that will exceed any gains for the next several years.



I'm not sure we'll see 6000, but I also don't think we're going to see 10,000 anytime soon either.  I'm not even sure I buy into the idea that we're going to see soaring inflation.  I just think this economy is going to stagnate for a very long time.  When we finally do see growth, I think it will be very slow growth.


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## editec

I hope you're right, DavidS.

I doubt you are, but then your grasp of the market is probably far more sage than mine.


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## DavidS

auditor0007 said:


> johnrocks said:
> 
> 
> 
> Call me a pessimist but I think we will see 6000 before we see 10000, because of what xsited said pretty much, people are going to make some profits and bail when the government cheese ends and then we will also see some kick ass inflation that will exceed any gains for the next several years.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm not sure we'll see 6000, but I also don't think we're going to see 10,000 anytime soon either.  I'm not even sure I buy into the idea that we're going to see soaring inflation.  I just think this economy is going to stagnate for a very long time.  When we finally do see growth, I think it will be very slow growth.
Click to expand...


If it is one thing this economy does not do, it is slow. Oil prices doubled, then plummeted. The stock market went from 7900 in 2001 - 14000 in 2007 back down to 6500 in 2009. Our economy does now grow slow and does not shrink slow. When things are good - they're GOOD. When things are bad, they're BAD. I would love to see slow, steady growth - but it just won't happen. That's why I think we'll be at 26,000 by 2016.


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## Terral

Hi David:



DavidS said:


> So, the market is rallying beyond all hopes and dreams and is up 10%+ since last week, which means we're well on our way to DOW 10,000.
> 
> I believe we'll see DOW 10,000 sometime during the summer. So, any of you believe we'll see DOW 10,000 this year?


 
  The stock market is going up, because the *liars on TV are talking the market up.* The *fundamentals of the U.S. Economy ARE BROKEN*, because *they were broken on purpose when Ben Bernanke and Secretary Paulson* wired the economy for *IMPLOSION* beginning Sept. 18, 2008. The retards in Washington D.C. and Wall Street (Fascist Pigs = all of them) are *&#8216;talking&#8217; the market up* and *putting the lid on the &#8216;bad news&#8217;* to lure more suckers into the markets for the *upcoming Economic IMPLOSION* that is right around the corner. We still have *10,000 foreclosures every day* and the U.S. Economy is still suffering from* &#8216;far&#8217; too much Outsourcing* and *&#8216;far&#8217; too many Foreign Nationals* (legal and illegal) shipped in left and right to *&#8216;displace&#8217; U.S. workers from identities and JOBS. *

*Tim Geithner *holds the key in his hand right now to the *Coming Economic IMPLOSION* (my thread) and *Gerald Celente* has the coming *&#8216;economic collapse&#8217;* pegged to a Tee. The new money coming into the markets right now are from *SUCKERS* about to lose *a lot of money* playing Russian Roulette with their financial futures . . . 

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg"]YouTube - ' Worst economic collapse ever'[/ame]

  GL,

  Terral


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## wimpy77

nobody buys your conspiracy theory bs terral


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## wimpy77

david i think you need to slow down. the market i think will drop again before it head about up. i am interested in seeing where the market goes tomorrow after he closed down today. i want to see if it was just people selling off and something more.


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## DavidS

wimpy77 said:


> david i think you need to slow down. the market i think will drop again before it head about up. i am interested in seeing where the market goes tomorrow after he closed down today. i want to see if it was just people selling off and something more.



I have no idea what the hell happened today. We were up over 120 points and then boom! Doesn't make sense.


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## wimpy77

DavidS said:


> wimpy77 said:
> 
> 
> 
> david i think you need to slow down. the market i think will drop again before it head about up. i am interested in seeing where the market goes tomorrow after he closed down today. i want to see if it was just people selling off and something more.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I have no idea what the hell happened today. We were up over 120 points and then boom! Doesn't make sense.
Click to expand...



from reading and watching tv analyst think it was selling going on and most say they are actually glad for a down day.

Stocks give up gains after 4-day rally: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

there's an article that can explain it better.


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## Terral

Hi Wimpy with DavidS mentioned:



wimpy77 said:


> nobody buys your conspiracy theory bs terral = Terral's Reply >>





DavidS said:


> I have no idea what the hell happened today confused. We were up over 120 points and then boom! Doesn't make sense shock.


Wimpy and DavidS do not represent everybody. Gerald Celente makes a good case and you guys are still just *&#8216;talking&#8217;* slap. My view of the U.S. Economy is that *the Fundamentals are broken*. That means the *&#8216;consumer base&#8217;* is systematically being *&#8216;displaced&#8217;* from the local JOB/consumer markets by: 

  1. Too much *Outsourcing of JOBS*. Norma Sherry Article
  2. Overuse of *23 Guest Worker Programs*. Adding 550,000 Guest Workers. 
  3. *12 to 20 Million Illegal Alien Foreign Nationals *running around loose. Illegals and U.S. Unemployment. 
  4. *Destruction of the U.S. Manufacturing Base *through *NAFTA/North American Union* (story) leading to:
  5. *Rising unemployment* (many stories) and:
  6. *Escalating Mortgage Foreclosures near 10,000 Every Day* (story and story) leading to:
  6. *Too many distressed houses* flooding the *deflated housing market* (worse than you think) leading to:
  7. *Gov&#8217;t tampering with deflated housing market* (Obama/Geithner Housing Plan = my thread) leading to:  
  8. Even *lower housing prices* kicking the bottom out of the housing market (story) leading to:
  9. Even *less private sector spending* (story and &#8216;record-breaking&#8217; story) leading to:
  10. *Lower stock price values* in an *&#8216;Economic Collapse&#8217;* (Ron Paul, Gerald Celente, etc.). 

  I can give you a long list with many reasons explaining *why the stock markets will definitely GO DOWN*. What I would like to see from *either of you guys* beer is just one reason explaining *why the stock market should go up* besides wimpy and David said so. 

The most famous and most accurate and most highly-acclaimed Trend Forecaster in the world (website) agrees 100 percent with me (website), so please offer up commentary from a forecaster of his caliber who agrees with you guys.

  GL, because I do not believe one word from you guys either. :0)

  Terral


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## DavidS

The stock market is going to go up because consumer confidence is returning, slowly to the marketplace, the market is oversold, interest rates are non-existent and the market is CHEAP.


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## Terral

Hi David:



DavidS said:


> The stock market is going to go up because consumer confidence is returning, slowly to the marketplace, the market is oversold, interest rates are non-existent and the market is CHEAP.



Please forgive, but the challenge was for wimpy or DavidS to "explaining *why the stock market should go up* besides wimpy and David said so." That seems like a simple challenge and a reason for DavidS to 'begin' supporting his conjecture with some credible testimony from SOMEBODY. This is what Glenn Beck from Fox News is saying about a *"Country In Crisis" *. . . 

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZsY5XbLinw"]Glenn Beck On Fox News[/ame]

This is Glenn Beck's interview with Gerald Celente about the stock market/economy . . . *and . . . *

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoCv1GwXUxc"]The Greatest Depression[/ame]

GL,

Terral


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## DavidS

And are Glen Beck or this other joker economists or stock traders? No. Stock traders are the ones that are saying that the market is really cheap right now and oversold.


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## editec

wimpy77 said:


> nobody buys your conspiracy theory bs terral


 
I buy into SOME of it, Wimpy.


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## wimpy77

you think i will listen to glen beck talk about the economy. if that is who you get your economic information then omg you have to common sense.


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## wimpy77

editec said:


> wimpy77 said:
> 
> 
> 
> nobody buys your conspiracy theory bs terral
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I buy into SOME of it, Wimpy.
Click to expand...


if buy into some conspiracy theories, but i do not buy into any of the ones terral posted. none whatsoever.


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## DavidS

Well today was the rally yesterday should have been. Up 178 points to close at 7395. We're inching closer and closer.


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## Chris

The Buffett meter is at 75%, so stocks are cheap, and there is a lot of cash sitting in Treasuries. Existing homes sales went up 33% here last month and building starts went up 22%. Interest rates are low and gas prices are low. The government is replacing the money that Wall Street stole from us. Plus, we are winding down the Iraq War, and we have an intelligent, engaged president.

Things are better than many people realize.


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## Paulie

johnrocks said:


> Call me a pessimist but I think we will see 6000 before we see 10000, because of what xsited said pretty much, people are going to make some profits and bail when the government cheese ends and then we will also see some kick ass inflation that will exceed any gains for the next several years.



The inflation would most likely spike equities and commodities, as people are going to want somewhere to put all the extra cash.  What we MAY be seeing is what's referred to as a "reflation trade".  The government is throwing trillions of dollars at a problem, which is going to cause mass increases in the money supply.  The monetary base is at unprecedented levels as we speak, so when that money hits the streets it's going to be looking for a home.  

That home is most likely going to consist of another bubble, including inflated equities prices.  The stock market stands to gain a lot once again, but I certainly wouldn't ignore precious metals.


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## wimpy77

dang it didn't take long for the market to go up after the fed announcement did it?


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## DavidS

wimpy77 said:


> dang it didn't take long for the market to go up after the fed announcement did it?



I'm worried about this decision. Perhaps Toro could chime in here, but the dollar just plummeted when the Treasuries skyrocketed due to the Fed's decision. How much longer can we keep doing this when the dollar is the overall victim?


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## wimpy77

most people ive heard think its a good decision what the fed did, but i think it can only be temporary.


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## DavidS

wimpy77 said:


> most people ive heard think its a good decision what the fed did, but i think it can only be temporary.



We're still in triage after the plane crash, helping stablize the market. We need to get to a point where the market and the economy is stable.

But we did have a near 200 point bounce today. Nice.


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## wimpy77

paulie i understand your point about inflation just so you know.


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## wimpy77

im thinking tomorrow we might get a hiccup in the rally. i think all this AIG talk is gonna bother some investors. we shall see.


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## NOBama

DavidS said:


> And are Glen Beck or this other joker economists or stock traders? No. Stock traders are the ones that are saying that the market is really cheap right now and oversold.


Psst... Their the same people that have been saying that since Q3-08.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that everything listed on the exchange is cheap right now. The real question is: Cheap in comparison to what; the inflated value or the actual value?

This is just an intuitive suspicion but, soon after everybody jumps back in don't be surprised if the whole mark to market issue comes back into play. 

BTW, I doubt we see 10k this summer. (EDIT: but I hope I'm wrong).


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## wimpy77

NOBama said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> And are Glen Beck or this other joker economists or stock traders? No. Stock traders are the ones that are saying that the market is really cheap right now and oversold.
> 
> 
> 
> Psst... Their the same people that have been saying that since Q3-08.
> 
> It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that everything listed on the exchange is cheap right now. The real question is: Cheap in comparison to what; the inflated value or the actual value?
> 
> This is just an intuitive suspicion but, soon after everybody jumps back in don't be surprised if the whole mark to market issue comes back into play.
> 
> BTW, I doubt we see 10k this summer. (EDIT: but I hope I'm wrong).
Click to expand...


im skeptical about dow 10,000 this summer as well. this aig situation may send things back into a tail spin.


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## Terral

Hi NOBama:



NOBama said:


> [FONT=&quot]This is just an intuitive suspicion but, soon after everybody jumps back in don't be surprised if the whole mark to market issue comes back into play. [/FONT]
> 
> BTW, I doubt we see 10k this summer. (EDIT: but I hope I'm wrong).


 
*Mark-to-Market Valuation* (Wiki) is the *ONLY 'fair value' market accounting method* that connects *&#8216;true asset value&#8217;* to *the &#8216;real&#8217; market.* Every other accounting method is *a &#8216;forecast&#8217;* or *a &#8216;prediction&#8217;* based upon *&#8216;true asset value&#8217; plus or minus* any *anticipated rise or fall in the &#8216;real price&#8217;* based upon *predicted market conditions*. Mark-to-Market accounting gives you *&#8216;the price&#8217;* that buyers in any given market *&#8216;are&#8217; willing to pay today* for your asset/property, but the crooked banks want to *raise that amount to a &#8216;fantasy value&#8217; *they pick out of thin air; even though housing prices are COLLAPSING. Transitioning &#8216;away&#8217; from Mark-to-Market Valuation of real property will only *reduce &#8216;transparency&#8217; and market &#8216;credibility&#8217; *and drive potential buyers *out* of the market and send home values down even more. 

  Any discussion about eliminating Mark-to-Market Valuation of real property assets (house, mortgage, bond prices) creates *an open invitation* for *those holding &#8216;bad assets&#8217;* to generate *&#8216;two&#8217; sets of books*, so they can trick (swindle) some foolish buyer into *paying too much* for their troubled assets that will only continue to lose value at the end of every month and every quarter. Think about it: Do you want to pay *a &#8216;fair market price&#8217;* for what *an asset is worth &#8216;today&#8217;* in the real world, OR do you want to pay *an &#8216;inflated price&#8217;* that some banker wants you to believe that asset might be worth at some point down the road *based upon &#8216;his&#8217; rosy speculations and forecasts?* :0) 

  Mark-To-Market Valuation of real property assets is* the &#8216;only&#8217; game in town* and anybody trying to say otherwise wants you as their DUPE. My prediction for the Dow Jones by the end of the year is between 5000 and 6000 if the liars keep talking the markets up . . .  

  GL, 

Terral


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## editec

*Nobam asks the $64 trillion dollar question:*



> It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that everything listed on the exchange is cheap right now. The real question is: Cheap in comparison to what; the inflated value or the actual value?


 
Prices are relative to everything else, folks.

I realize that there's still plenty of wealthy people waiting on the sidelines ready for the market to show signs of true stability, but honestly...

how healthy can the market be if the people in the USA are unemployed, and growing increasingly unemployable, too, because they cannot compete with nations where the average worker works for 1/10th what they MUST have to thrive in this nation?

WE have lived through a GILDED AGE. The top 1% have a combined income greater than the bottom 90% of this nation's population.

That is unsustainable, I think.

This economic meltdown, regardless of the specific way it came undone, is rooted in the excesses and income inequity that this nation not only allowed, but encouraged to happen.


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## wimpy77

edit you simply don't understand how the market works. when i used to invest heavily in the markets i looked in terms of long. im pulled my money out in november i was diversified and didn't take that big of a hit. i am still relatively young and have about 20+ years before i retire. im still long in the market and the economy. i think at this point the economy is gonna fix its self. because with the tax legislations being drafted no private investor is gonna help the government now with toxic assets.


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## wimpy77

i didn't feel llike making a new thread. i know its not important but the futures are right now at almost 3in the morning est. it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to geithners toxic asset plan.


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## Terral

Hi wimpy:

  Hopefully this guy really has me on ignore, because his *two-dimensional empty-headed rhetoric* cuckoo insults our collective intelligence . . .  



wimpy77 said:


> edit you simply don't understand how the market works.


 
  This is no normal market, which you should realize by the fact that we are at *50 percent of even 2008 values* (chart) and *there is still plenty of downside* and *the bottom fishing continues*. Rather than the Govt supporting certainty, by making the right decisions, we have seen a series of backwards and foolish decisions that create even more uncertainty for potential investors. Anybody thinking that we are looking at a normal market is fooling himself.  



wimpy77 said:


> when i used to invest heavily in the markets i looked in terms of long.


 
  Who cares? Wimpy bumps these threads all day long without one credible source to back up his nonsense. Nobody can even think about investing for the long term with *no idea about where the BOTTOM* in the housing and stock market might be located. If the Dow Jones goes down to 5000 by the end of the year (which it will), then everyone putting their money into the market today will get murdered on the way down.  The smart people (like Gerald Celente) *are forecasting DOOM for the stock markets* in case you are unaware. Show us one trend forecaster predicting a 10,000 point Dow Jones for this year and perhaps wimpy will have more than a wimpy case. :0) 



wimpy77 said:


> im pulled my money out in november i was diversified and didn't take that big of a hit.


 
  Lordy . . . Try to prove that the USA is looking at a normal trading pattern within highs and lows in any trading corridor, before you start talking diversification and hedging against potential losses. What method for determining the current housing and stock market bottoms are you using to support ANY trading strategy amid more Govt interloping than anybody on earth can possibly forecast? The out-of-control Obama Administration is putting fingers in the leaky dam that is eventually going to break and everyone with money in the market will be a big fat loser, which is the reason that so many smart people are *staying liquid through the housing crisis* (story). Think about it: If prices continue to slide (and the will), then you can buy the same property cheaper at an opportune time down the road. Let some other sucker own the property until the deflationary spiral is over . . .  



wimpy77 said:


> i am still relatively young and have about 20+ years before i retire. im still long in the market and the economy.


 
  In other words, you are ignoring the warnings from people like *Gerald Celente *(predicts collapse of 2009), because he is just a conspiracy theory nut! Right? :0)  



wimpy77 said:


> i think at this point the economy is gonna fix its self. because with the tax legislations being drafted no private investor is gonna help the government now with toxic assets.


 
  So, wimpy thinks *this devastated U.S. Economy*, now in the death grips of* a deflationary spiral *(story), is going to suddenly fix itself! Wonderful. And you also think that proposed tax legislation (heh) has been the right answer all along. Guess what hotshot? No* housing bottom* (links) means that *bad paper toxic asset number* on all the bank balance sheets is only going *HIGHER* and there is not enough money on earth to fix this problem in view of *rising unemployment* and *falling house prices*. Instead, the *number of households going underwater will increase* (Reuters.com) and fewer people will be in a position to secure a loan to make an offer on *your depreciating piece of real property*. Obama is pushing even more spending, when the tax base is eroding away right before our eyes; which means *none of his forecasts have any basis in market reality*. 

Here is a nice place to begin looking at *Lew Rockwells* version of *The establishment is going down* (here) if anybody wants to take Dow Jones investment advice from somebody other than wimpy. :0)  

  GL,

  Terral


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## DavidS

Please go away with your conspiracy theories you fucking moron.

In other news, dow futures are skyrocketing on news that our government IS actually competent. 

Citigroup is up 25% in pre-market trading.


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## editec

wimpy77 said:


> edit you simply don't understand how the market works.


 
Okay, no argument from me on that point.



> when i used to invest heavily in the markets i looked in terms of long. im pulled my money out in november i was diversified and didn't take that big of a hit. i am still relatively young and have about 20+ years before i retire. im still long in the market and the economy.


 
Good for you. But how does your situation make the market get healthier, exactly?




> i think at this point the economy is gonna fix its self. because with the tax legislations being drafted no private investor is gonna help the government now with toxic assets.


 
Well I read what you wrote above, but I still don't understand it.

How does the fact that the government is going to own all those toxic debts, and no investor igoing to help the government with those toxic debts, make the market thrive, exactly?

The market will trhive because the government is stuck with a load of toxic debt?

Sorry don't get the connection.


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## editec

DavidS said:


> Please go away with your conspiracy theories you fucking moron.[


 
Regards terral's last post?

Absolutely nothing even remotely conspiractorial about_ that_ post.

As long as the real estate market is unstable, and people whose majority life's saving are in real estate (and that would be far more people than stock market investors, I suspect) people are going to continue to hold back on spending.

And certainly, as long as we're having increasing unemployment and underemployment, people are going to hold back on spending, too.

Now how the market thrives under those circumstances I cannot imagine.

Until the banks start lending, and the people start spending, again, I cannot see why the market would recover much if at all.

And if the price of real estate is going to reach pricing associated with incomes as it once was, then the median price of a home in the USA still have about $100,000 to drop, yet.

And THAT would put most mortgages under water, and make most homeowners feel VERY poor, indeed.

Is the stock market REALLY so disconnected from the financial state of the average American people that it can thrive while they all go broke?


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## DavidS

> Guess what hotshot? No* housing bottom* (links) means that *&#8216;bad paper&#8217; toxic asset number* on all the bank balance sheets is only going *HIGHER* and there is not enough money on earth to fix this problem in view of *rising unemployment* and *falling house prices*.


No housing bottom, eh?

US Existing Home Sales Up 5.1% in February - Real Estate * US * News * Story - CNBC.com

Dow is up close to 300.

Terral fail.


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## editec

DavidS said:


> Guess what hotshot? No* housing bottom* (links) means that *bad paper toxic asset number* on all the bank balance sheets is only going *HIGHER* and there is not enough money on earth to fix this problem in view of *rising unemployment* and *falling house prices*.
> 
> 
> 
> No housing bottom, eh?
> 
> US Existing Home Sales Up 5.1% in February - Real Estate * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
> 
> Dow is up close to 300.
> 
> Terral fail.
Click to expand...

 
This is_ good news_ for real estate?



> The inventory of existing homes for sale rose 5.2 percent to 3.80 million from the 3.61 million overstock reported in January. The median national home price declined 15.5 percent from a year ago to $165,400. That was the second biggest decline on record.


 
An incr4ease in homes for sale and a $45000 decrease in median home prices in one year is good news?

If the market thinks these are good numbers, I will never understand the market, that's for damned sure.


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## DavidS

editec said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Guess what hotshot? No* housing bottom* (links) means that *bad paper toxic asset number* on all the bank balance sheets is only going *HIGHER* and there is not enough money on earth to fix this problem in view of *rising unemployment* and *falling house prices*.
> 
> 
> 
> No housing bottom, eh?
> 
> US Existing Home Sales Up 5.1% in February - Real Estate * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
> 
> Dow is up close to 300.
> 
> Terral fail.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> This is_ good news_ for real estate?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The inventory of existing homes for sale rose 5.2 percent to 3.80 million from the 3.61 million overstock reported in January. The median national home price declined 15.5 percent from a year ago to $165,400. That was the second biggest decline on record.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> An incr4ease in homes for sale and a $45000 decrease in median home prices in one year is good news?
> 
> If the market thinks these are good numbers, I will never understand the market, that's for damned sure.
Click to expand...


Increase in sales decreases inventory - we hope. This leads to smaller supply, which will inevitably trickle down into the market and turn prices around. Prices have to decrease over time. They were too expensive.


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## Valerie

DavidS said:


> So, the market is rallying beyond all hopes and dreams and is up 10%+ since last week, which means we're well on our way to DOW 10,000.
> 
> I believe we'll see DOW 10,000 sometime during the summer. So, any of you believe we'll see DOW 10,000 this year?




Those diamonds (*DIA*) I picked up at 68 are looking good!  


And umm...........David?  What's with the swapping of avatars?  

Are you also Bat Boy / Mountainman?


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## wimpy77

editec said:


> wimpy77 said:
> 
> 
> 
> edit you simply don't understand how the market works.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Okay, no argument from me on that point.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> when i used to invest heavily in the markets i looked in terms of long. im pulled my money out in november i was diversified and didn't take that big of a hit. i am still relatively young and have about 20+ years before i retire. im still long in the market and the economy.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Good for you. But how does your situation make the market get healthier, exactly?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> i think at this point the economy is gonna fix its self. because with the tax legislations being drafted no private investor is gonna help the government now with toxic assets.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Well I read what you wrote above, but I still don't understand it.
> 
> How does the fact that the government is going to own all those toxic debts, and no investor igoing to help the government with those toxic debts, make the market thrive, exactly?
> 
> The market will trhive because the government is stuck with a load of toxic debt?
> 
> Sorry don't get the connection.
Click to expand...


and you know that private investors will not go in? the only reason why they are scared is because the government might change the rules half way...we will see if that happens. if they know they won't get taxed to hell they will help out.


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## Terral

Hi Editec with wimpy and David mentioned:

  You appear to be the voice of reason around here today. :0) 



editec said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> Please go away with your conspiracy theories you fucking moron.[
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Regards terral's last post?
> 
> Absolutely nothing even remotely conspiratorial about_ that_ post.
Click to expand...

 
  We agree. The trends forecasters (from the above post) are saying the markets will continue to go DOWN. 



editec said:


> As long as the real estate market is unstable, and people whose majority life's saving are in real estate (and that would be far more people than stock market investors, I suspect) people are going to continue to hold back on spending.


 
  That is Gerald Celente&#8217;s advice exactly, which makes sense in any deflationary market were prices are falling. The object of the game is still to buy low and sell high. Right? :0)



editec said:


> And certainly, as long as we're having increasing unemployment and underemployment, people are going to hold back on spending, too.


 

  We agree. Just Google the words &#8220;empty malls&#8221; and look at the results . . . 



editec said:


> Now how the market thrives under those circumstances I cannot imagine.


 
  Wimpy and David spin their wheels around here every day talking the market up, when the trends forecasters are simply telling everybody what the data shows. Period. Now we have a battle between the Washington and Wall Street LIARS eusa_liar, with a vested interest in the stock markets going up &#8216;and&#8217; the trends forecasters eusa_hand who cashed out at Dow Jones 14,000 and now have their money in gold waiting for *a recognizable bottom*. This *Geithner Housing Plan* (my thread) hype has the markets going up, because too many traders are believing *the LIES* and everyone else is along for the ride up &#8216;and&#8217; the ride back down when reality sets in that this debacle will only make the situation far worse. The reason is that nobody is doing anything to shore up *the &#8216;fundamentals&#8217;* of the Economy, which would begin by* eliminating outsourcing* and slowing down *the 1.5 million Foreign Nationals* coming to the USA this year to* &#8216;displace&#8217; US workers from JOBS*. We are still looking at *10,000 foreclosures every day *and another *600,000 workers standing in the unemployment line* by the end of this month and the next month and so forth. The problem for banks is very similar to the one facing China holding so much US Debt. If China starts dumping dollars onto the open market, then the remainder of their Trillion Dollar investment begins losing value and might even crash the system. When the banks start dumping their distressed properties back onto the open market, *that will become &#8216;the market&#8217;* and the price you &#8216;can&#8217; get for your house will *go down to distressed housing levels*; which means *you* will be underwater in no time. 



editec said:


> Until the banks start lending, and the people start spending, again, I cannot see why the market would recover much if at all.



Banks cannot lend in deflationary market and survive! The math simply does not work. If you have money to lend, the hand that out in investment opportunities guaranteed to go UP and not down cuckoo. 



editec said:


> And if the price of real estate is going to reach pricing associated with incomes as it once was, then the median price of a home in the USA still have about $100,000 to drop, yet.


 
  Or more. :0) If nobody is going to begin protecting *the JOBS* of *the very least* among the *American workers*, and *Illegal Aliens by the MILLIONS* are allowed to stomp around EVERYWHERE, then *you will NEVER see a housing bottom*; because the price that real Americans &#8216;can&#8217; afford to pay will continue to go DOWN. This is like putting a band aid on a patient convulsing from every orifice, when you have no inclination to stop the bleeding from everywhere else. Why bother? :0) This Plan represents just another way for *the illegal FED* and *their U.S. Treasury co-conspirators* to hand more money to *banks *(their buddies) while the regular guy gets *the shaft*. The details of the Plan say:

PoliticalTicker



> Under the new so-called "Public-Private Investment Program", taxpayer funds will be used to *seed partnerships with private investors* that will *buy up so-called toxic assets* backed by mortgages and *other loans *cuckoo.
> 
> The goal is to buy up at least *$500 billion of bad assets* &#8212; such as *&#8216;subprime mortgages&#8217;* that are *&#8216;now&#8217; in danger of default*. Doing so would help cleanse the balance sheets of many of the nation's largest banks, which continue to suffer billions of dollars in losses.


We are talking about *&#8216;subprime&#8217; mortgages* that are *&#8216;now&#8217;* in danger of default. What about the millions of Americans who already lost their homes and have already gone into foreclosure and the 10,000 going into foreclosure today? Since when will *getting &#8216;subprime&#8217; mortgages off the bank balance sheet* help *&#8216;cleanse&#8217; *anything, because as of November 2008 only *6.89 percent of mortgages fall into the &#8216;subprime&#8217; category* (story) and represent less than half of the current foreclosures (43 percent in 2007). This Plan does nothing for the situations where the people are underwater and simply walk away. At an average of 250,000 dollars, and 10,000 foreclosures every day, that equals *2.5 billion dollars every day* or *75 billion dollars every month* in potential bank losses. That means 500 billion dollars is enough money to buy up all the foreclosed properties in the USA for a grand total of 6.6 months or about half of one year. :0) Then the problem is finding *a 'qualified' buyer* for the *distressed property* that might have all the walls knocked out and need 100,000 dollars in repairs. If anybody thinks this kind of Plan will work disagree, then simply go down to the local driver&#8217;s license office and stand in line to see the kind of service you should expect. Obama&#8217;s Plan still creates *no JOBS* and still hands *billions and billions and billions in &#8216;borrowed&#8217; dollars* to the *BANKS*, just like *TARP 1* under Senor Bushie &#8216;and&#8217; the 10,000 foreclosures taking place *&#8216;yesterday, today and tomorrow&#8217;* will go right on the unbalanced balance sheet . . .  



> The government will then run auctions between the banks selling the assets and the investors buying them, hoping to effectively create a market for these assets.


  Now we are going to spend billions and billions and billions of our children&#8217;s money and *&#8216;hope&#8217; that something good happens*, when the housing market is caught in *a deflationary tailspin* &#8216;and&#8217; prices are continuing to go *LOWER*. Somebody guess what happens when you loan *200,000 borrowed dollars* against a house that you &#8216;know for a fact&#8217; is going DOWN in value to *100,000 dollars* in three years? The value of your mortgage-backed security portfolio goes DOWN by 50 percent and you are a loser. If the market is willing to buy up these troubled assets, then we do not need the Gov&#8217;t to even be involved. 

These bankers do not live in boxes somewhere and they all know plenty of investors, but *those investors are NOT IDIOTS *and they would rather stay liquid until the bottom falls out of the housing market and they can get three houses for the price of one at the Gov&#8217;t Auction. Instead, these bankers are looking for* &#8216;new money suckers&#8217;* willing to assume possession of these properties, so *&#8216;they&#8217;* (the bankers) *can sit on the sidelines* and remain liquid &#8216;and&#8217; buy these same distressed properties back at a MUCH lower price later down the road . . .  



> To kickstart things, the administration said it will commit $75 billion to $100 billion and would consider how the program is progressing before committing more money.


75 billion dollars is enough to buy up the combined mortgages of US houses going into foreclosure for just 30 days, which is a drop in the proverbial bucket in relation to the SIZE of this problem. We are not even talking about the* 8 Trillion-dollar commercial real estate market* (story) that is *now in jeopardy*, the *&#8216;student loan crisis&#8217;* (story) and the *Credit Card Crisis *(story). And all of that does not even begin to address the continuing saga of* the AIG Crisis* (links) for being stupid enough to insure everybody headed for a &#8216;Crisis.&#8217; :0)     



editec said:


> And THAT would put most mortgages under water, and make most homeowners feel VERY poor, indeed.


 
  About *30 percent of homeowners in San Diego* were under water as of Christmas last year (story), which is up to *20 percent nationally* (story) and those numbers are only going to get worse (all about the fundamentals again . . . ). 



editec said:


> Is the stock market REALLY so disconnected from the financial state of the average American people that it can thrive while they all go broke?


 
  No! The stock market is tied to the housing market and *the health of the consumer base* that all rise and fall together. When you allow *too much Outsourcing of JOBS* and allow *Foreign Nationals to continue &#8216;displacing&#8217; US workers from identities and JOBS*, then what you are seeing (falling markets) is what you get (and what you deserve). Some Americans have deluded themselves into believing that hiring Illegal Aliens is good for business, when in reality *they &#8216;displaced&#8217; good-paying Americans from among their own customers*. Obama&#8217;s next move will be to make everyone legal, so the *next 20 million Illegal Aliens* can come here in the middle of the night *to steal &#8216;our identities and JOBS&#8217;* from this current batch.  

  The amount of money I currently have invested in the housing and stock markets is . . . ZERO. Remember that the smart money got out of the stock market when the Dow was at 14,000. :0) You guys hold onto that depreciating junk until we see the real bottom, then I will come along and pick things up for pennies on the dollar . . . 

  GL,

  Terral


----------



## Chris

The Buffett Meter is the best way to judge stocks.

That and the P/E.


----------



## wimpy77

again to lazy to make separate thread. the futures are down almost 80 i know its early but i wonder what they are responding too?


----------



## DavidS

Dow 8,000! We've risen 1,500 points in one month - so we're inching closer and closer to 10,000!


----------



## Terral

Hi David:



DavidS said:


> Dow 8,000! We've risen 1,500 points in one month - so we're inching closer and closer to 10,000!



Yes. The *Obama Deception* (link) is working and more 'new money' suckers are being lured back into the markets that will definitely IMPLODE this fall. *Tim Geithner holds the key* (link) and the DUPES (pic) are running to his Obama dung like flies . . . and DavidS is Obama's cheerleader . . . 

GL,

Terral


----------



## manu1959

DavidS said:


> Dow 8,000! We've risen 1,500 points in one month - so we're inching closer and closer to 10,000!



didn't the dow do something like this right before it tanked in the 30's.....


----------



## Terral

Hi Manu:



manu1959 said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> Dow 8,000! We've risen 1,500 points in one month - so we're inching closer and closer to 10,000!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> didn't the dow do something like this right before it tanked in the 30's.....
Click to expand...


Yes. History refers to the event as the 'Spring Rally of 1930.'

Futurecasts.com



> *This was the "spring rally" of     1930.* The stock market remained determinedly over optimistic - bouncing back vigorously after each selling     climax - rising in     expectation of each possible trade turning point - and falling     back only when disillusionment became inevitable.


That noise coming down the tracks is the sound of inevitability from the coming Economic Collapse and the Greatest Depression . . . 

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4zL8l0NTe4"]YouTube - Gerald Celente The Greatest Depression is still to come 18 Mar 2009[/ame]

GL,

Terral


----------



## manu1959

is it possible that all the financial institutions that just got a trillion dollars in tax payer funds are driving this rally in an attempt to re-create the wealth they lost ......

i mean if a group of investors had a trillion dolloars couldn't they drive the market....

a group like say.....

Group of Thirty - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The current members of the Group of Thirty are:

Paul Volcker - Chairman of the Board of Trustees; former Chairman of the Federal Reserve 
Jacob A. Frenkel - Chairman; Vice Chairman, American International Group 
Geoffrey L. Bell - Executive Secretary; President Geoffrey Bell and Company 
Leszek Balcerowicz - Former President, National Bank of Poland 
Jaime Caruana - Counselor and Director, MCM Department, International Monetary Fund 
Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. - Chief Executive, TIAA-CREF 
Stanley Fischer - Governor, Bank of Israel 
Mervyn Allister King - Governor of the Bank of England 
Guillermo Ortiz Martinez - Governor, Banco de México 
Jean-Claude Trichet - President, European Central Bank 
Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa - Minister of Economy and Finance, Italy 
Zhou Xiaochuan - Governor, People's Bank of China 
Yutaka Yamaguchi - Former Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan 
E. Gerald Corrigan - Managing Director, Goldman Sachs, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York 
Andrew Crockett - President, JP Morgan Chase 
Sir David Walker - Senior Advisor Morgan Stanley 
Guillermo de la Dehesa - Director and Member of the Executive Committee, Grupo Santander 
Arminio Fraga Neto - Partner, Gávea Investimentos; former President of the Central Bank of Brazil 
Domingo Cavallo - Chairman and CEO, DFC Associates, LLC 
Martin Feldstein - President, National Bureau of Economic Research 
Paul Krugman - Professor of Economics, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University 
Lawrence Summers - Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University 
Ernesto Zedillo, Director, Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, Yale University, and former President of Mexico 
Gerd Häusler - Vice-Chairman Lazard International 
Abdulatif Al-Hamad - Chairman, Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development 
Montek Singh Ahluwalia - Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, India 
Mario Draghi - Governor, Bank of Italy 
Philipp Hildebrand, Vice-Chairman, Swiss National Bank 
Kenneth Rogoff, Professor,Harvard University 
Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Minister of Finance, Singapore 
Tim Geithner, Current United States Secretary of the Treasury 

funny they all got bailout money and or gave money to each other....


----------



## editec

manu1959 said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> Dow 8,000! We've risen 1,500 points in one month - so we're inching closer and closer to 10,000!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> didn't the dow do something like this right before it tanked in the 30's.....
Click to expand...

 
Yes, I think it did.  

I think we're basically in uncharted waters though. I hope the market recovers, but I'm clueless about what will make it do that.

Certainly the cconomy on Maine Street isn't driving it up.



*



1929
Sept. 03 -- Reaches its closing peak for the bull market of the 1920's, at 381.17.

Oct. 28
Plummets 38.33 points, cutting 12.8 percent of the DJIA value, closing at 260.64. See greatest DJIA Gains and Losses of all time here: DJIA Gains and Losses

1929

Oct. 29 -- Falls 30.57 to 230.07 cutting 11.7 percent of the DJIA. These 2 days total 24.5 percent.

Oct. 30
Rises 28.40 to close at 258.47, second largest percentage gain of the DJIA, up 12.34%.

1931

Oct 06 -- Rises 12.86 to close at 99.34, largest percentage gain of the DJIA, up 14.87%.

1932

Jul. 08 -- Falls .59 to close at 41.22. 

This decline from Sep. 03 1929 totaled 339.95 for a percentage drop of 89.19%
		
Click to expand...

 
source*


----------



## Valerie

Valerie said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> So, the market is rallying beyond all hopes and dreams and is up 10%+ since last week, which means we're well on our way to DOW 10,000.
> 
> I believe we'll see DOW 10,000 sometime during the summer. So, any of you believe we'll see DOW 10,000 this year?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Those diamonds (*DIA*) I picked up at 68 are looking good!
> 
> 
> And umm...........David?  What's with the swapping of avatars?
> 
> Are you also Bat Boy / Mountainman?
Click to expand...





> Thu Apr 2, 2009 5:51pm BST
> 
> NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global stocks rose sharply on Thursday and the price of government debt fell on optimism over efforts by world leaders meeting in London to solve the economic crisis and a change in U.S. accounting rules that will help troubled banks.
> 
> Oil prices surged more than 8.0 percent to above $52 a barrel after world leaders at the G20 summit agreed to pump an additional $1 trillion (678 billion pounds) into the ailing global economy through extra funding for groups like the International Monetary Fund.
> 
> The positive tone coming from the G20 summit raised the risk appetite for many asset classes by raising hopes among investors that a coordinated effort was underway to tackle the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.
> 
> U.S. government bonds extended losses as investors piled into equities while euro zone government bonds slid after the European Central Bank cut interest rates a less-than-expected one-quarter percentage point to 1.25 percent.
> 
> The euro soared to nearly $1.35 after the ECB confounded expectations for a deeper cut to 1.0 percent. But the euro eased a bit after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet refused to rule out additional rate cuts in the future.
> 
> The G20 news and the change in FASB accounting rules more than offset data which showed the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose to the highest in more than 26 years in the latest week.
> 
> Stock markets in Europe, on Wall Street and an index for global stocks all rose more than 4.0 percent and an equities index for emerging markets surged more than 6.0 percent.
> 
> Financial shares, a sector that led stocks deep into bear territory but a key driver behind a recent equity rally, surged on bets for an improving global economy and the easing of U.S. accounting rules that have battered their balance sheets.  Continued...


Global stocks surge on G20 optimism | Reuters


----------



## Chris

It's amazing what competent leadership can do.

Eight more years of Republican whinning. 

I love it!


----------



## elvis

Chris said:


> It's amazing what competent leadership can do.
> 
> Eight more years of Republican whinning.
> 
> I love it!



Hey traitor, 

did you give bush credit when it hit 14,000?


----------



## Chris

elvis3577 said:


> Chris said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's amazing what competent leadership can do.
> 
> Eight more years of Republican whinning.
> 
> I love it!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hey traitor,
> 
> did you give bush credit when it hit 14,000?
Click to expand...


Keep whinning...

It makes me smile.


----------



## Valerie

Valerie said:


> Valerie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> So, the market is rallying beyond all hopes and dreams and is up 10%+ since last week, which means we're well on our way to DOW 10,000.
> 
> I believe we'll see DOW 10,000 sometime during the summer. So, any of you believe we'll see DOW 10,000 this year?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Those diamonds (*DIA*) I picked up at 68 are looking good!
> 
> 
> And umm...........David?  What's with the swapping of avatars?
> 
> Are you also Bat Boy / Mountainman?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thu Apr 2, 2009 5:51pm BST
> 
> NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global stocks rose sharply on Thursday and the price of government debt fell on optimism over efforts by world leaders meeting in London to solve the economic crisis and a change in U.S. accounting rules that will help troubled banks.
> 
> Oil prices surged more than 8.0 percent to above $52 a barrel after world leaders at the G20 summit agreed to pump an additional $1 trillion (678 billion pounds) into the ailing global economy through extra funding for groups like the International Monetary Fund.
> 
> The positive tone coming from the G20 summit raised the risk appetite for many asset classes by raising hopes among investors that a coordinated effort was underway to tackle the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.
> 
> U.S. government bonds extended losses as investors piled into equities while euro zone government bonds slid after the European Central Bank cut interest rates a less-than-expected one-quarter percentage point to 1.25 percent.
> 
> The euro soared to nearly $1.35 after the ECB confounded expectations for a deeper cut to 1.0 percent. But the euro eased a bit after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet refused to rule out additional rate cuts in the future.
> 
> The G20 news and the change in FASB accounting rules more than offset data which showed the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose to the highest in more than 26 years in the latest week.
> 
> Stock markets in Europe, on Wall Street and an index for global stocks all rose more than 4.0 percent and an equities index for emerging markets surged more than 6.0 percent.
> 
> Financial shares, a sector that led stocks deep into bear territory but a key driver behind a recent equity rally, surged on bets for an improving global economy and the easing of U.S. accounting rules that have battered their balance sheets.  Continued...
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Global stocks surge on G20 optimism | Reuters
Click to expand...



Is the train leaving the station?   



> Looking back at the last five US recessions dating back to the early 1970s. *Three of the five recessions saw the unemployment rate continue to rise even after the recession was officially over. This is why the number is often referred to as a lagging economic indicator. *Todays reading of 6.5% unemployment is the highest since the 1990s, but well below the 10.8% reading in November 1982. I do believe we will see the reading rise to the mid-7% level before we top out, however the market will likely be well off the lows by the time this occurs.
> 
> During all five recessions the stock market (S&P 500) bottomed months before the worst unemployment reading was released. When the worst news hits the news wires, the S&P 500 was up on average 30% from the lows over the last five years. For example if the unemployment rate decides to climb another 1% and peaks early next year, there is a good chance the stock market would have already bottomed months earlier.


Correlation Between The Unemployment Rate And Actions Of The Stock Market | Daily Markets


----------



## DavidS

elvis3577 said:


> Chris said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's amazing what competent leadership can do.
> 
> Eight more years of Republican whinning.
> 
> I love it!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hey traitor,
> 
> did you give bush credit when it hit 14,000?
Click to expand...


Dear Elvis:

Under my leadership, the Dow went from 3300 to 13000. 

Signed,

Bill Clinton


----------



## elvis

DavidS said:


> elvis3577 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chris said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's amazing what competent leadership can do.
> 
> Eight more years of Republican whinning.
> 
> I love it!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hey traitor,
> 
> did you give bush credit when it hit 14,000?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Dear Elvis:
> 
> Under my leadership, the Dow went from 3300 to 13000.
> 
> Signed,
> 
> Bill Clinton
Click to expand...


I'm sure chrissy lewinsky will be on to say it was all Clinton's doing.


----------



## Valerie

DavidS said:


> elvis3577 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chris said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's amazing what competent leadership can do.
> 
> Eight more years of Republican whinning.
> 
> I love it!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hey traitor,
> 
> did you give bush credit when it hit 14,000?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Dear Elvis:
> 
> Under my leadership, the Dow went from 3300 to 13000.
> 
> Signed,
> 
> Bill Clinton
Click to expand...



Perhaps he was just in the right place at the right time?  
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^DJI&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=



> *Just when you think it will get even worse*
> 
> On March 9th, 2009, the Wall Street Journal featured the following article: 'Dow 5,000? There's a case for it.' Ironically, the Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) and other indexes bottomed that day and rallied 20% or more since. By the definition of many common Wall Street guidelines, this 20% bounce technically reigned in a new bull market.
> 
> The government's recent plans to tackle the economic crisis are commonly credited for sparking this rally. MarketWatch reported on March 26th, 'faster than Geithner seemed to be going down with the financial ship, he now appears to be confidently leading us to shore. Geithner is the face of this week's market rally.'
> 
> In actuality, the market had started to rally two weeks before President Obama, Mr. Geithner or anyone else offered any significant suggestions. The market's rally is in full harmony with the January 15th ETF Profit Strategy outlook: 'The best target for a low is 6,700 for the Dow and 700 for the S&P 500. Extreme pessimistic sentiment may drive the indexes even towards Dow 6,000 and S&P 600. Once the new lows are reached, the markets should stage the biggest rally seen since October 2007.'
> 
> According to Birinyi Associates, this 20% rebound within 13 trading days was the fastest 20% rebound from a bear market low since 1938. Yet, bears are concerned that this rally will prove to be just another decoy rally like the one seen late last year.
> 
> The mere suspicion connected with the recent bounce means that this rally has further to go. The rally will likely exhaust itself once the general belief sets in that March 9th marked the end of this bear market.
> 
> Just in time for the biggest profits, ETF Profit Strategy subscribers received a Trend Change Alert notice on March 2nd outlining ETF profit strategies for conservative, moderate and aggressive investors.
> 
> Our recommendations ranged from plain vanilla ETFs such as the iShares Russell 3000 (NYSEArca: IWV - News), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) and Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSEArca: VCR - News) to aggressive plays such as the Ultra Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: UYG - News) and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO - News).
> 
> As mentioned earlier, investors commonly believe that a 20% rise in the Dow or S&P signals a new bull market. More often than not, a new bull market tends to back up a 20% bounce. However, there are occasions where a 20% rally was followed by lower lows. From November 1929 to April 1930, the Dow Jones rallied 48%. This rally however was followed by an 85% drop from the April 1929 highs to the July 1932 lows.
> 
> An analysis of more than just investor sentiment is needed to determine whether this rally, however powerful it may be, will reign in a new bull market. An analysis of dividend yields and P/E ratios shows that major market bottoms always go hand in hand with dividend yields and P/E ratios reaching certain levels.
> 
> In fact, a study of those two indicators lets you pin-point a target range for the ultimate market bottom
> 
> .
> 
> The March issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter contains a detailed study of the four most powerful long-term gauges (including dividend yields and P/E ratios) along with specific target ranges for the end of this bear market.
> 
> *Knowledge is the most important asset when it comes to protecting your wealth, however as Sudie Back put it, 'Be curious always! For knowledge will not acquire you; you must acquire it.'*


Is It Time To Put Your Cash To Work? - Yahoo! Finance




> *APRIL 1, 2009, 6:25 P.M. ET
> *
> *Direct Edge Argues Against Bringing Back Short-Selling Rule
> *
> 
> By Jacob Bunge
> 
> Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
> 
> CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Electronic equities platform Direct Edge urged financial regulators to maintain and strengthen current short-selling rules, following calls from U.S. stock exchanges to reinstate limits on the practice.
> 
> In a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission, Direct Edge general counsel Eric W. Hess said that bringing back the uptick rule, a repealed regulation that limited short sales, is an "ineffective and potentially harmful" approach to stemming rapid declines in share prices.
> 
> The Direct Edge letter comes after a joint statement last week from NYSE Euronext (NYX), Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ), BATS Exchange and the National Stock Exchange, which urged SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro to implement a "modified uptick rule."
> 
> That proposal would restrict short selling when a stock declines by 10% or more in a single session.
> 
> Direct Edge hit out at that plan Wednesday, suggesting that putting a price restriction on short selling would create price distortions, while continuing to allow "synthetic short activity" in the same stocks with the potential for greater market abuses.
> 
> Instead, Direct Edge supports further disclosure obligations around short interest, which would help regulators watch for abusive trading patterns.
> 
> The SEC last fall imposed a temporary ban on short selling, a practice in which traders seek to profit from a declining stock price, as part of efforts to curb volatility in equities markets.
> 
> A reinstatement of the uptick rule is intended to answer the concerns of listed companies that worry that short-sellers could drive down their shares.
> 
> Direct Edge has been vying with BATS for the title of third-largest U.S. equities platform, behind NYSE Euronext and Nasdaq OMX.
> 
> Article - WSJ.com





> Traders are cautiously backing a modified uptick rule proposal the exchanges are pushing to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The proposal from the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq OMX Group, BATS Exchange and the National Stock Exchange, first reported on wallstreetletter.com on March 24, limits short selling when a threshold is reached.
> 
> 
> Several Congressmen have been calling for a reinstatement of the old uptick rule, which allows shorting only when a security&#8217;s price is going up (WSL, 3/20). Although traders say the exchanges&#8217; proposal leaves more short sales wiggle room than the previous uptick rule, they have concerns about the rule&#8217;s implementation.
> 
> 
> Under this modified rule, a circuit breaker would let short orders through only when the security&#8217;s price is above the highest prevailing national bid. The circuit breaker would be triggered when a security&#8217;s price has gone down a certain ...
> 
> Traders Back Exchange Push On Uptick Rules : Wall Street Letter


----------



## elvis

Chris said:


> elvis3577 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chris said:
> 
> 
> 
> It's amazing what competent leadership can do.
> 
> Eight more years of Republican whinning.
> 
> I love it!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hey traitor,
> 
> did you give bush credit when it hit 14,000?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Keep whinning...
> 
> It makes me smile.
Click to expand...


you move to Cuba yet?


----------



## DavidS

elvis3577 said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> elvis3577 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Hey traitor,
> 
> did you give bush credit when it hit 14,000?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dear Elvis:
> 
> Under my leadership, the Dow went from 3300 to 13000.
> 
> Signed,
> 
> Bill Clinton
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I'm sure chrissy lewinsky will be on to say it was all Clinton's doing.
Click to expand...


Clinton can have a whole room of Monicas. The DOW went up 10,000 points under his tenure.

Obama can have all of the BBB he wants if the DOW goes up 10,000 under his tenure as well.


----------



## elvis

DavidS said:


> elvis3577 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> Dear Elvis:
> 
> Under my leadership, the Dow went from 3300 to 13000.
> 
> Signed,
> 
> Bill Clinton
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm sure chrissy lewinsky will be on to say it was all Clinton's doing.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Clinton can have a whole room of Monicas. The DOW went up 10,000 points under his tenure.
> 
> Obama can have all of the BBB he wants if the DOW goes up 10,000 under his tenure as well.
Click to expand...


I'm sure Clinton will and does and Kirky would be happy to oblige.  What did the market do under Reagan?  How much of the growth under clinton was because of the tech boom?  The market was on its way down when clinton left.


----------



## DavidS

elvis3577 said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> elvis3577 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm sure chrissy lewinsky will be on to say it was all Clinton's doing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Clinton can have a whole room of Monicas. The DOW went up 10,000 points under his tenure.
> 
> Obama can have all of the BBB he wants if the DOW goes up 10,000 under his tenure as well.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I'm sure Clinton will and does and Kirky would be happy to oblige.  What did the market do under Reagan?  How much of the growth under clinton was because of the tech boom?  The market was on its way down when clinton left.
Click to expand...


The first year under Reagan's tenue, the market lost. It went from 947 - 847. Back then, 100 points was a lot. Today, it's chump change.

Only by the end of 1982, after Reagan RAISED taxes on the wealthiest, did the market go up and breached 1000 for the first time.

In fact, the market was on its way up to 3000 until the big crash of 1987. It didn't re-gain that until Bush took office in the 1990s. But we ended Reagan's term with around 2200 or sow on the DOW. Nice little gain. Today the market goes up and down 1000 points in a week or so. I really doubt the days of up 50, down 30 are ever going to return. There is so much volatility in the market right now.


----------



## wimpy77

i think tomorrow the market will sell off a little on the unemployment number and profit taking.


----------



## DavidS

wimpy77 said:


> i think tomorrow the market will sell off a little on the unemployment number and profit taking.



Nope. Since unemployment started going up, every time they announce it, the market goes up over 100 points.

Big day coming up with 8.5% unemployment. If the number is lower, big big day.


----------



## wimpy77

DavidS said:


> wimpy77 said:
> 
> 
> 
> i think tomorrow the market will sell off a little on the unemployment number and profit taking.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nope. Since unemployment started going up, every time they announce it, the market goes up over 100 points.
> 
> Big day coming up with 8.5% unemployment. If the number is lower, big big day.
Click to expand...

 8.5% isn't a good number but i guess the market is becoming resilent to bad numbers. we will see what happens when Q1 numbers come out.


----------



## DavidS

wimpy77 said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> wimpy77 said:
> 
> 
> 
> i think tomorrow the market will sell off a little on the unemployment number and profit taking.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nope. Since unemployment started going up, every time they announce it, the market goes up over 100 points.
> 
> Big day coming up with 8.5% unemployment. If the number is lower, big big day.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 8.5% isn't a good number but i guess the market is becoming resilent to bad numbers. we will see what happens when Q1 numbers come out.
Click to expand...


I wouldn't be surprised if we had a -10 handle in Q1.


----------



## Paulie

Foreign markets were mixed last night, with modest numbers either way.  Our market seems to move almost in lockstep with the foreign markets, at least in value.

Today was setting up to be a small movement either way, and it ended up being exactly that.  I'm actually a little surprised it finished in the green.

Oil rebounded nicely, which is good for my portfolio   Having a nice little oil position is great, because if the price of oil goes up you profit, and if it comes down you save at the pump.  It's win-win and I would recommend it for anyone's portfolio right now.  My position is DXO, because I'm addicted to the 2X's.


----------



## Paulie

wimpy77 said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> wimpy77 said:
> 
> 
> 
> i think tomorrow the market will sell off a little on the unemployment number and profit taking.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nope. Since unemployment started going up, every time they announce it, the market goes up over 100 points.
> 
> Big day coming up with 8.5% unemployment. If the number is lower, big big day.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 8.5% isn't a good number but i guess the market is becoming resilent to bad numbers. we will see what happens when Q1 numbers come out.
Click to expand...


I'm a buyer on the first dip before Q1's, because I just have a crazy feeling that it's going to be surprisingly better than expected.

Don't forget too, April is historically a good month for securities.  So grab your positions on dips, because this could be a really profitable month.


----------



## wimpy77

Paulie said:


> wimpy77 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> Nope. Since unemployment started going up, every time they announce it, the market goes up over 100 points.
> 
> Big day coming up with 8.5% unemployment. If the number is lower, big big day.
> 
> 
> 
> 8.5% isn't a good number but i guess the market is becoming resilent to bad numbers. we will see what happens when Q1 numbers come out.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I'm a buyer on the first dip before Q1's, because I just have a crazy feeling that it's going to be surprisingly better than expected.
> 
> Don't forget too, April is historically a good month for securities.  So grab your positions on dips, because this could be a really profitable month.
Click to expand...


will do paulie thanks for the tip.


----------



## mash107

In real terms, we're at 1995 levels:






(p.s. notice how inflation is the cause of all bubbles/recessions)

I don't care about nominal values of the stock market as much as I do the real values. In other words, the dollar needs to gain, and the rest will fall into place. As long as inflation is 5% or higher, than having a stock yielding a P/E of 5 means I just about broke even, no?


----------



## InrXeyelArkvst

Y'all gotta factor in the 
*-$11,124,519,301,253.21*. 

Just $979480698746.79 in $wipes to go til _Cap Bu$t II_ (i.e. the XIth of the XXIst Century).


----------



## Valerie

DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1
(NYSEArca: *DIA*)

After Hours: 84.97 Down 0.15 (0.18%) 4:30PM EThelp
Last Trade:	*85.12*
Trade Time:	4:00pm ET
Change:	Up 2.34 (2.83%)
Prev Close:	82.78
Open:	83.58
Bid:	84.99 x 500
Ask:	85.04 x 600
NAV¹:	82.69
Day's Range:	83.50 - 85.12
52wk Range:	64.78 - 131.26
Volume:	12,667,993
Avg Vol (3m):	24,014,800
YTD Return (Mkt)²:	-12.53%
Net Assets²:	6.98B
P/E (ttm)²:	11.95
Yield (ttm)²:	3.58%

DIA: Summary for DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 - Yahoo! Finance


----------



## DavidS

We're up 2000 points since March. We are on target to hit 10,000 around July, just as I predicted.


----------



## DavidS

We're up 227 points right now at 8720. This is also a stable surge as we haven't dropped below 8700 all day.

If we close at 8700 today, we still have close to 60 days to gain 1300 points.


----------



## wimpy77

we are gonna have seesaw days. some that are good and some that are bad. all that has to happen to go on the downside again is for something spook the market. i still say your 10,000 dow prediction is very far fetched.


----------



## Toro

Not!


----------



## DavidS

oops.


----------



## auditor0007

DavidS said:


> elvis3577 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> Dear Elvis:
> 
> Under my leadership, the Dow went from 3300 to 13000.
> 
> Signed,
> 
> Bill Clinton
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm sure chrissy lewinsky will be on to say it was all Clinton's doing.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Clinton can have a whole room of Monicas. The DOW went up 10,000 points under his tenure.
> 
> Obama can have all of the BBB he wants if the DOW goes up 10,000 under his tenure as well.
Click to expand...


The DOW went up 10,000 points for two reasons under Clinton, and neither had a damn thing to do with Clinton.  The driving force behind the huge economic growth of the 90's was almost entirely driven by the advent of computers and cell phones.  Nobody had them and everybody wanted them, and it wasn't just individuals but businesses also.  This new demand for new products, that btw were not cheap, drove the rest of the economy to into a frenzy.

When we compare today to the early 90's, we see a very different picture.  There are no new products to drive the economy as we had in the 90's.  And now, even the advances being made in computer technology seem to be minor rather than major leaps and bounds, so there is nothing driving this economy.

If and when we find some new "must have" product, then maybe we will again see the kind of growth that could be compared to the 90's.  If not, we better find a way to concentrate on once again producing the everyday products that Americans need and use.  Otherwise, real growth will be minimal.  As for potential new products, the only thing I can see as even a remote possibility, would be in the area of alternative energy.  The thing about new products and ideas is that most people, myself included, really can't picture something new and of that magnitude, until we actually see it.

Anyway, DOW 10,0000?  I'm sticking to DOW 6000 before 10,0000.  I don't think we've seen the worst of this mess yet.


----------



## adeel_sami

DavidS said:


> So, the market is rallying beyond all hopes and dreams and is up 10%+ since last week, which means we're well on our way to DOW 10,000.
> 
> I believe we'll see DOW 10,000 sometime during the summer. So, any of you believe we'll see DOW 10,000 this year?



Before Mid-2010 ...
Emmm I don't have solid ground to cite my indication but it's just in my mind ..


----------



## rdking647

dow 10000 by dec 31 2009


----------



## wimpy77

rdking647 said:


> dow 10000 by dec 31 2009



not so sure about that rdking. we shall see.


----------



## Paulie

Looks like we're starting to come back to reality.  One more big down day and we're back under 8k.  The up days are practically nothing, while the down days have been pretty bad.  

I hope we retest the lows again, I want to attone for some of my inaction the last time around.


----------



## wimpy77

Paulie said:


> I hope we retest the lows again, I want to attone for some of my inaction the last time around.



we might just do that.


----------



## eagleseven

We might hit 10,000, if we're lucky, but I smell a bear boom, not a long-term boom. Expect there to be another crash within the next two years.

Yes, we've (arguably) avoided one iceberg, but we've turned into a path with half a dozen icebergs, and one will eventually hit.


Also, I'd be much more impressed if the stock market numbers coincided with job growth. It'd be nice to have a job before 2011...


----------



## Toro

We're rolling over.

I am short.


----------



## Neubarth

quote=DavidS;1097777]So, the market is rallying beyond all hopes and dreams and is up 10%+ since last week, which means we're well on our way to DOW 10,000.

I believe we'll see DOW 10,000 sometime during the summer. So, any of you believe we'll see DOW 10,000 this year?[/quote]

There is no way in Hell that we see DOW 10,000 in the next three years unless we have massive inflation.  If the dollar stays steady in value the stock market will not go up much in the next three years.


----------



## wimpy77

Toro said:


> We're rolling over.
> 
> I am short.



rolling over? care to explain?


----------



## Toro

The market has started going down.

The bear market bounce is over.


----------



## editec

I cannot imagine why the DOW would rise 1700 points in the next 5 months.

Do you guys see something good on the horizen that I don't see?


----------



## wimpy77

good question ed all i can say is we have to watch and see.


----------



## eagleseven

editec said:


> I cannot imagine why the DOW would rise 1700 points in the next 5 months.
> 
> Do you guys see something good on the horizen that I don't see?



Obama-worship will save us.


Rather, that is an exaggeration of the argument, but reveals its core. The economy will not be saved because of Obama's polices, but by his sheer presence, his charisma, his pure liberalness.

I call it the _est Magick_ rational.


----------



## Darkwind

Dow won't do 10 until the fall of 2010.  Until then it will bounce between 7500 and 9000.


----------



## rdking647

Toro said:


> The market has started going down.
> 
> The bear market bounce is over.




puts can be your friend.  Im long spx puts and naked short spx calls  right now im long the 860 puts,short the 820's and short 890,900 and 920 calls

I use them as a hedge against my overall stock exposure.


----------



## Toro

I covered my puts on the USO last week.


----------



## Paulie

I wish I understood options.  Maybe someday Toro will be so kind as to offer some insight and advice


----------



## rdking647

Toro said:


> I covered my puts on the USO last week.



instead of the uso why not trade options on the actual crude future?


----------



## rdking647

Paulie said:


> I wish I understood options.  Maybe someday Toro will be so kind as to offer some insight and advice



options are fairly simple to get a basic understanding of.
There are two types.  puts and calls
calls give the right but not the obligation to buy a stock at a set price between now and some specified time in the future.
puts give the right but not the obligation to sell a stock at a set price between now and some specified time in the future


----------



## Paulie

So we broke 9000 today.

I honestly didn't think it would happen before a big retracement.  I'm starting to wonder about a correction that may test the lows again, at this point.  I think all bad news may already have been priced in at this point.  I don't know about 10,000, though.

Toro have you covered?


----------



## wimpy77

i think we could see 10,000 by the end of the year. i know alot of analyst were saying 12,000 but that aint gonna happen i dont think. it will be interesting to see what the 3rd brings (i know we are just starting the 2nd earnings and reports). but also next week is when the gdp number comes in.


----------



## Toro

rdking647 said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> I covered my puts on the USO last week.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> instead of the uso why not trade options on the actual crude future?
Click to expand...


I am not allowed to because of trading restrictions at work.  That is what I would prefer to do.  I don't like the USO but I want exposure to crude.

I covered all my shorts today.  I think the move is too powerful.  Stocks are being jammed up.  Arguing with the market is usually an unwise thing to do.

We are extremely overbought.  However, I think that once we work off the overbought condition, we will move higher again.  At some point, you are not going to want to own a single equity, but that time has not arrived.


----------



## Sinatra

I had no idea there was a market thread in this place!  Awesome!

This move up is legit.  There will be a bit of profit taking short term, but overall, the economy is lumbering back into profits mode.  2010 should be a decent year overall - though there is about a 50/50 shot at seeing a Dow 10k mark before year's end - the stars are aligning - the housing market is stabalizing, steel is going up which is a signal I have used for years as an indicator of future growth.  A sector I am willing to gamble a bit on now is healthcare.  The Obamacare pounded these stocks down, and now with signals from DC that whatever might be coming down the pike regarding health care reform will be far less damaging and comprehensive than thought just a month or two ago, these companies are undervalued - similar to the bank stocks at the start of the year.

My only concern is that we could see a somewhat "jobless" recovery where unemployment stays around the 8.5% - 9.5% mark for another couple of years due to stagnant small business growth due to the continued pounding being handed out by Obama and the Democrat Congress.  A political rebalancing of Congress in 2010 could greatly alleviate this situation though...


----------



## wimpy77

Sinatra said:


> I had no idea there was a market thread in this place!  Awesome!
> 
> This move up is legit.  There will be a bit of profit taking short term, but overall, the economy is lumbering back into profits mode.  2010 should be a decent year overall - though there is about a 50/50 shot at seeing a Dow 10k mark before year's end - the stars are aligning - the housing market is stabalizing, steel is going up which is a signal I have used for years as an indicator of future growth.  A sector I am willing to gamble a bit on now is healthcare.  The Obamacare pounded these stocks down, and now with signals from DC that whatever might be coming down the pike regarding health care reform will be far less damaging and comprehensive than thought just a month or two ago, these companies are undervalued - similar to the bank stocks at the start of the year.
> 
> My only concern is that we could see a somewhat "jobless" recovery where unemployment stays around the 8.5% - 9.5% mark for another couple of years due to stagnant small business growth due to the continued pounding being handed out by Obama and the Democrat Congress.  A political rebalancing of Congress in 2010 could greatly alleviate this situation though...



unfortunately that's what econonomist are predicting. they are saying the unemployment will stay at 8 to 9% for at least next year. but yeah sinatra this forum is where all the cool people hang out


----------



## DavidS

To the OP: You still have two months left for your prediction of DOW 10,000 before the end of the Summer comes true.


----------



## Valerie

DavidS said:


> To the OP: You still have two months left for your prediction of DOW 10,000 before the end of the Summer comes true.




Good call, David.    I bought my diamonds at 68!  ( DIA )


DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1
(NYSEArca: DIA)
DIA: Summary for DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 - Yahoo! Finance



And by the way CAT is over $40 again.  I bought in my IRA starting at ~$33 and averaged down to ~$22.  so I feel pretty good about it.  

CATERPILLAR INC
(NYSE: CAT)
Last Trade:	41.26


----------



## Valerie

Ooooh *BAD* call, David.  

http://www.usmessageboard.com/the-flame-zone/82930-fuck-you-gunny.html#post1365822



Try to stick to the topics, tough guy!


----------



## Sinatra

Valerie said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> To the OP: You still have two months left for your prediction of DOW 10,000 before the end of the Summer comes true.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Good call, David.    I bought my diamonds at 68!  ( DIA )
> 
> 
> DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1
> (NYSEArca: DIA)
> DIA: Summary for DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 - Yahoo! Finance
> 
> 
> 
> And by the way CAT is over $40 again.  I bought in my IRA starting at ~$33 and averaged down to ~$22.  so I feel pretty good about it.
> 
> CATERPILLAR INC
> (NYSE: CAT)
> Last Trade:	41.26
Click to expand...


Nice!  CAT is another leading indicator of where the economy will be going in 3 - 6 months.

The potential upside in China and India is INCREDIBLE.


----------



## Toro

The problem in China is that there has been massive overbuilding.  Massive.  The Chinese have not suspended the laws of supply and demand, so at some point, it will come back at us in a big way.

Many of the imbalances in the global economy have not been fixed.  We are rising on liquidity, which is what got us into this mess in the first place.  The massive amount of stimulus, particularly from the Fed, are going to have enormous ramifications and could be even bigger than the housing bubble if they don't take significant steps to reduce the liquidity.

In the mean time, the market is going higher.


----------



## Sinatra

Toro said:


> The problem in China is that there has been massive overbuilding.  Massive.  The Chinese have not suspended the laws of supply and demand, so at some point, it will come back at us in a big way.
> 
> Many of the imbalances in the global economy have not been fixed.  We are rising on liquidity, which is what got us into this mess in the first place.  The massive amount of stimulus, particularly from the Fed, are going to have enormous ramifications and could be even bigger than the housing bubble if they don't take significant steps to reduce the liquidity.
> 
> In the mean time, the market is going higher.



Ah hell...now you got me worried again!

I agree regarding the stimulus - my God what a mess that thing is proving to be.

And the extent of the Fed's role is getting very worrisome.

But for today we live, for tomorrow may never come...


----------



## Toro

The federal government's stimulus hasn't really started yet.  That will add to the fire.

At some point, you won't want to own a single share of equity.  Now is not that time.

(I think.)


----------



## Sinatra

Toro said:


> The federal government's stimulus hasn't really started yet.  That will add to the fire.
> 
> At some point, you won't want to own a single share of equity.  Now is not that time.
> 
> (I think.)




My broker told me to look for substantially increased inflation by this time next year - something about it helping to reduce the dollar value of the debt.

That sound about right to you?

Seems a very dangerous fiscal game our government is playing...


----------



## Toro

I don't think inflation is a worry at this time.  It may be down the road but there are still too many issues in the economy to worry about inflation IMHO.

What you are seeing now is the beginning of asset inflation as excess liquidity flows into asset markets instead of consumer prices.


----------



## Paulie

Toro said:


> The federal government's stimulus hasn't really started yet.  That will add to the fire.
> 
> At some point, you won't want to own a single share of equity.  Now is not that time.
> 
> (I think.)



When you say not a single share of equity, are you suggesting commodities in lieu of?

I happen to think gold is a steal at its current price, but god damn if it still isn't expensive as hell for a less-than-wealthy person such as myself.

Just for shits and giggles, what do you think the major indices will peak at, and when?


----------



## Toro

I have no idea where the indices will peak at.  All I know is that the path of least resistance is to the upside, even if we go down a bit to work off this overbought condition.

I do not know what will go up if and when equities fall back down again.  The problem is that everything is so macro driven and correlations amongst different assets are as high as they have ever been.  That makes sense, given the severity of the financial crisis and the enormity of response.  

To clarify my response to Sinatra, inflation could be a problem down the road.  However, we are more likely to get asset inflation first.  In this environment, it would not surprise me if gold went to $5000.  That is *NOT* a prediction.  I doubt it will get there.  But it wouldn't surprise me as I believe the odds of an even greater dislocation in the future are rising.


----------



## Neubarth

Paulie said:


> Just for shits and giggles, what do you think the major indices will peak at, and when?



I keep on thinking the major indicies have peaked everyday.  Profits keep falling. GDP is falling.  Unemployment is soaring. Housing sales are just bouncing around on the bottom only influenced by the local rates of repossessions and auctions. Housing values are still coming down all around the nation.  I see almost no positives and can not believe that people are putting money into the stock market.  Yet, they are, or something is.


----------



## Paulie

Neubarth said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> Just for shits and giggles, what do you think the major indices will peak at, and when?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I keep on thinking the major indicies have peaked everyday.  Profits keep falling. GDP is falling.  Unemployment is soaring. Housing sales are just bouncing around on the bottom only influenced by the local rates of repossessions and auctions. Housing values are still coming down all around the nation.  I see almost no positives and can not believe that people are putting money into the stock market.  Yet, they are, or something is.
Click to expand...


When you say profits are falling, I'm inclined to disagree.  We're seeing earnings numbers meeting or beating in many instances, and that is why equities have still been rising.  What you mean to say is probably that REVENUES are falling, which they are.  Companies are boosting earnings in the face of falling revenues by trimming the fat, and this is what they SHOULD be doing in this environment.  But we're in an economic downturn, so falling revenues is to be expected considering the current rate of consumer savings vs. spending.

GDP is also expected to bottom soon, but of course that remains to be seen.  I'm not as easily taken by government-produced statistics myself, so even when a positive GDP number is first announced, I'll be leery about it.


----------



## Toro

Neubarth

There is a tsunami of liquidity on its way.  You can stand on shore and put your hand up to stop it, or you can jump in a boat and ride it.  (Or you can get to high ground and watch it.)

That is what you are dealing with.


----------



## Paulie

I'm going to ride it, myself.  I'm in on a couple small companies with huge growth potential, that are almost certainly going to buy my family our first house...not to mention, offer us a nice financial cushion.  I'm already up an average of 600%, and that's WITH a recent major correction.  I was up over 1000% at one point, and will be back to that again in the future.

As much as I fear for this country with the coming inflation potential, I'm certainly not going to get burned by it.


----------



## Sinatra

Toro said:


> I have no idea where the indices will peak at.  All I know is that the path of least resistance is to the upside, even if we go down a bit to work off this overbought condition.
> 
> I do not know what will go up if and when equities fall back down again.  The problem is that everything is so macro driven and correlations amongst different assets are as high as they have ever been.  That makes sense, given the severity of the financial crisis and the enormity of response.
> 
> To clarify my response to Sinatra, inflation could be a problem down the road.  However, we are more likely to get asset inflation first.  In this environment, it would not surprise me if gold went to $5000.  That is *NOT* a prediction.  I doubt it will get there.  But it wouldn't surprise me as I believe the odds of an even greater dislocation in the future are rising.




Would that not drive up the prices of say, houses?  If so, would this then be a purposeful manipulation of that kind of inflation?


----------



## Toro

I think that if we work through the excess of inventory of housing, prices would start to rise.  I do believe the government is targeting real estate prices.  They want to keep house prices up to stem the defaults in the banking system.


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## Paulie

Toro said:


> I think that if we work through the excess of inventory of housing, prices would start to rise.  I do believe the government is targeting real estate prices.  They want to keep house prices up to stem the defaults in the banking system.



Could you wager a guess on how long you think we have left before housing prices start rising in any kind of significant fashion?

We're about a year away from buying our first house, possibly sooner.  The area we're looking at has an overloaded inventory, and prices for middle class "dream homes" in that area are around 200k and even less.

I'd love to think we could still get in at or under 200k by the time we're ready.


----------



## Toro

I have no idea.  But if you find a house you like and can afford it and it is reasonably priced, you should buy it because it is more than an investment.  It is a place to live.


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## DavidS

Damn - I'm within 700 points and we still have two months left!


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## davidss

DavidS said:


> Damn - I'm within 700 points and we still have two months left!



527 points now.


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## elvis

that's cute, dave.


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## mal

johnrocks said:


> Call me a pessimist but I think we will see 6000 before we see 10000, because of what xsited said pretty much, people are going to make some profits and bail when the government cheese ends and then we will also see some kick ass inflation that will exceed any gains for the next several years.



JR, you are a Pessimist... You need stop Hangin' out with all those End of Worlder "Libertarians"... 

Did we ever see 6,000?... 



peace...


----------



## DavidS

davidss said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> Damn - I'm within 700 points and we still have two months left!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 527 points now.
Click to expand...


Damn 629 points... not a good day. We've got a little over a month left.


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## mal

DavidS said:


> davidss said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> Damn - I'm within 700 points and we still have two months left!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 527 points now.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Damn 629 points... not a good day. We've got a little over a month left.
Click to expand...


Easy... One more "Good News" in Jobs Reports and it will Break 10K...

I've almost Regained all of my Losses... Of course I've lost almost 2 Years of Time, but at least I ain't Broke, and I Boughtened those Shares in the Last Year and Half CHEAP!...

Bring it!



peace...


----------



## DavidS

tha malcontent said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> davidss said:
> 
> 
> 
> 527 points now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Damn 629 points... not a good day. We've got a little over a month left.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Easy... One more "Good News" in Jobs Reports and it will Break 10K...
> 
> I've almost Regained all of my Losses... Of course I've lost almost 2 Years of Time, but at least I ain't Broke, and I Boughtened those Shares in the Last Year and Half CHEAP!...
> 
> Bring it!
> 
> 
> 
> peace...
Click to expand...


I should've gone into Ford at $1 and gone into Apple at $80 earlier this year. Ford is at $7.50 and Apple is at $165. Would've octuppled my returns on Ford and doubled them with Apple.


----------



## Paulie

DavidS said:


> tha malcontent said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> Damn 629 points... not a good day. We've got a little over a month left.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Easy... One more "Good News" in Jobs Reports and it will Break 10K...
> 
> I've almost Regained all of my Losses... Of course I've lost almost 2 Years of Time, but at least I ain't Broke, and I Boughtened those Shares in the Last Year and Half CHEAP!...
> 
> Bring it!
> 
> 
> 
> peace...
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I should've gone into Ford at $1 and gone into Apple at $80 earlier this year. Ford is at $7.50 and Apple is at $165. Would've octuppled my returns on Ford and doubled them with Apple.
Click to expand...


Do we need to resurrect the thread where you said you already had a large position in Apple?  

You know, the one where you were mulling over whether or not to sell back when Jobs left on hiatus because of his health?


----------



## DavidS

Paulie said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tha malcontent said:
> 
> 
> 
> Easy... One more "Good News" in Jobs Reports and it will Break 10K...
> 
> I've almost Regained all of my Losses... Of course I've lost almost 2 Years of Time, but at least I ain't Broke, and I Boughtened those Shares in the Last Year and Half CHEAP!...
> 
> Bring it!
> 
> 
> 
> peace...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I should've gone into Ford at $1 and gone into Apple at $80 earlier this year. Ford is at $7.50 and Apple is at $165. Would've octuppled my returns on Ford and doubled them with Apple.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Do we need to resurrect the thread where you said you already had a large position in Apple?
> 
> You know, the one where you were mulling over whether or not to sell back when Jobs left on hiatus because of his health?
Click to expand...


Yes, please.


----------



## Paulie

DavidS said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> I should've gone into Ford at $1 and gone into Apple at $80 earlier this year. Ford is at $7.50 and Apple is at $165. Would've octuppled my returns on Ford and doubled them with Apple.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Do we need to resurrect the thread where you said you already had a large position in Apple?
> 
> You know, the one where you were mulling over whether or not to sell back when Jobs left on hiatus because of his health?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Yes, please.
Click to expand...


http://www.usmessageboard.com/stock-market/67426-sell-apple-sell-apple.html



DavidS said:


> I've had 5000 shares of Apple at $150/share for a while.


----------



## DavidS

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI

Almost 500 points away from my prediction and still more than a month left!!


----------



## Paulie

Prediction?

You threw a fucking number out there and might just get lucky enough for it to be right.

You "predicted" nothing.


----------



## DavidS

Paulie said:


> Prediction?
> 
> You threw a fucking number out there and might just get lucky enough for it to be right.
> 
> You "predicted" nothing.



I predicted it would hit 10,000 by the end of Summer.

Very close.


----------



## wimpy77

you predicted it would hit 10,000 by july.


----------



## DavidS

I thought it would hit 10,000 by the end of Summer. I was 3 weeks off. No one else had the balls to make the same call I did.


----------



## Toro

DavidS said:


> I thought it would hit 10,000 by the end of Summer. I was 3 weeks off. No one else had the balls to make the same call I did.



Indeed you did, Dave.  Props!


----------



## Paulie

DavidS said:


> I thought it would hit 10,000 by the end of Summer. I was 3 weeks off. No one else had the balls to make the same call I did.



Would have been much more interesting had you given some technical or fundamental reasons why you came to the prediction.

Alas, it was just a wild guess and nothing more.  

I did that once in roulette and walked out of the casino doing the snoopy shuffle the whole way.

I also did that in a hand of blackjack, and spent an hour trying to figure out how to break the bad news to the mrs.

In conclusion, wild guesses mean nothing.

What I'll give you though, is props for at least calling it during a time when it didn't seem remotely possible.


----------



## Modbert

Paulie said:


> In conclusion, wild guesses mean nothing.
> 
> What I'll give you though, is props for at least calling it during a time when it didn't seem remotely possible.



This, although if David had done something like this then maybe I'd be more impressed:

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMFxfEjx3zo&feature=related]YouTube - Mike Blowers Prediction ''The Call Of The Year'' Seattle Mariners.09-29-2K9.[/ame]


----------



## DavidS

Paulie said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> I thought it would hit 10,000 by the end of Summer. I was 3 weeks off. No one else had the balls to make the same call I did.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Would have been much more interesting had you given some technical or fundamental reasons why you came to the prediction.
> 
> Alas, it was just a wild guess and nothing more.
> 
> I did that once in roulette and walked out of the casino doing the snoopy shuffle the whole way.
> 
> I also did that in a hand of blackjack, and spent an hour trying to figure out how to break the bad news to the mrs.
> 
> In conclusion, wild guesses mean nothing.
> 
> What I'll give you though, is props for at least calling it during a time when it didn't seem remotely possible.
Click to expand...


Paulie, you're like obsessed with me or something. Everywhere I go, you have to follow me. 

Dogs do that. You're not a dog are ya Paulie? [line from the movie Snatch]

Anyway, I did give reasons. Re-read the thread.


----------



## Paulie

DavidS said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> I thought it would hit 10,000 by the end of Summer. I was 3 weeks off. No one else had the balls to make the same call I did.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Would have been much more interesting had you given some technical or fundamental reasons why you came to the prediction.
> 
> Alas, it was just a wild guess and nothing more.
> 
> I did that once in roulette and walked out of the casino doing the snoopy shuffle the whole way.
> 
> I also did that in a hand of blackjack, and spent an hour trying to figure out how to break the bad news to the mrs.
> 
> In conclusion, wild guesses mean nothing.
> 
> What I'll give you though, is props for at least calling it during a time when it didn't seem remotely possible.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Paulie, you're like obsessed with me or something. Everywhere I go, you have to follow me.
> 
> Dogs do that. You're not a dog are ya Paulie? [line from the movie Snatch]
> 
> Anyway, I did give reasons. Re-read the thread.
Click to expand...

This was all you said that really made any sense:



DavidS said:


> The stock market is going to go up because consumer confidence is returning, slowly to the marketplace, the market is oversold, interest rates are non-existent and the market is CHEAP.



Although at the time, confidence wasn't really all that high.  And you gave no specific reasons why you thought it was oversold.  

That's what I meant by _fundamental_.

I finally gave you a compliment though, and you just couldn't take it.


----------



## Valerie

DavidS said:


> To the OP: You still have two months left for your prediction of DOW 10,000 before the end of the Summer comes true.





End of summer is September 21 and today is October 14, so you only missed your prediction by three weeks.  Good call David!


----------



## Valerie

Paulie said:


> I finally gave you a compliment though, and you just couldn't take it.





  Woops!  I did too.


----------



## Zander

You get a box of cracker jacks!!! There is a nobel peace prize in it too!!!
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





 what is your next call? Dow 6000? 14000??


----------



## Valerie

Paulie said:


> Would have been much more interesting had you given some technical or fundamental reasons why you came to the prediction.




I was just looking at the chart for the Diamonds. [DIA] 

The volume is not there and I don't think this is going to hold up very long....Which is fine.  Nothing goes straight up, the price action retraces and solidifies until the volume steps in.

Looks like it could be heading back to 8000.

Quotes for DIA - Yahoo! Finance


----------



## mal

DavidS said:


> So, the market is rallying beyond all hopes and dreams and is up 10%+ since last week, which means we're well on our way to DOW 10,000.
> 
> I believe we'll see DOW 10,000 sometime during the summer. So, any of you believe we'll see DOW 10,000 this year?



I Predicted Summer's End...

Or...  








peace...


----------



## DavidS

Paulie said:


> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> 
> Would have been much more interesting had you given some technical or fundamental reasons why you came to the prediction.
> 
> Alas, it was just a wild guess and nothing more.
> 
> I did that once in roulette and walked out of the casino doing the snoopy shuffle the whole way.
> 
> I also did that in a hand of blackjack, and spent an hour trying to figure out how to break the bad news to the mrs.
> 
> In conclusion, wild guesses mean nothing.
> 
> What I'll give you though, is props for at least calling it during a time when it didn't seem remotely possible.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Paulie, you're like obsessed with me or something. Everywhere I go, you have to follow me.
> 
> Dogs do that. You're not a dog are ya Paulie? [line from the movie Snatch]
> 
> Anyway, I did give reasons. Re-read the thread.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> This was all you said that really made any sense:
> 
> 
> 
> DavidS said:
> 
> 
> 
> The stock market is going to go up because consumer confidence is returning, slowly to the marketplace, the market is oversold, interest rates are non-existent and the market is CHEAP.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Although at the time, confidence wasn't really all that high.  And you gave no specific reasons why you thought it was oversold.
> 
> That's what I meant by _fundamental_.
> 
> I finally gave you a compliment though, and you just couldn't take it.
Click to expand...


You don't explain WHY you think the market is oversold in the middle of March when the DOW barely cracked 7000 after plummeting nearly 50%. You pretty much accept it, just you like you don't ask why rain is wet.


----------



## mal

Testing something... Sorry for the Interruption...



peace...


----------

