# Market Overheated?



## Manonthestreet (Nov 9, 2019)

Track my 401 on a weekly basis and I have not seen anything like what its done in last five weeks. All of the instruments are at 52 week highs save for the bond fund. I have a set amount I consider next floor up and I've blown thru 4 in that time.  Strongly considering putting entire weekly amount in the  *Guaranteed fund which is cash that's pays 2.3%. Hate to buying at highs across the board. 
Your thoughts.

Dont know why it went to dark font*


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## Ringel05 (Nov 9, 2019)

Manonthestreet said:


> Track my 401 on a weekly basis and I have not seen anything like what its done in last five weeks. All of the instruments are at 52 week highs save for the bond fund. I have a set amount I consider next floor up and I've blown thru 4 in that time.  Strongly considering putting entire weekly amount in the  *Guaranteed fund which is cash that's pays 2.3%. Hate to buying at highs across the board.
> Your thoughts.
> 
> "Dont know why it went to dark font"*


You accidentally clicked on Bold.........

As for the rest.


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## toobfreak (Nov 9, 2019)

Manonthestreet said:


> Track my 401 on a weekly basis and I have not seen anything like what its done in last five weeks. All of the instruments are at 52 week highs save for the bond fund. I have a set amount I consider next floor up and I've blown thru 4 in that time.  Strongly considering putting entire weekly amount in the  *Guaranteed fund which is cash that's pays 2.3%. Hate to buying at highs across the board.
> Your thoughts.
> 
> Dont know why it went to dark font*




That is just Donald Trump winning for the American people.  Only the stupid tards with no investments or savings think Trump a bad president and a loser!


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## Manonthestreet (Nov 9, 2019)

toobfreak said:


> Manonthestreet said:
> 
> 
> > Track my 401 on a weekly basis and I have not seen anything like what its done in last five weeks. All of the instruments are at 52 week highs save for the bond fund. I have a set amount I consider next floor up and I've blown thru 4 in that time.  Strongly considering putting entire weekly amount in the  *Guaranteed fund which is cash that's pays 2.3%. Hate to buying at highs across the board.
> ...


Would be nice to think we are on cusp of an economic renaissance with Trump deregulation, a rejection of heres your new normal, Brexit and a Chinese trade deal that doesn't allow them to steal everything in site,,,,,,Same for Mexico.....not sure that would be prudent to act on until its manifest


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## william the wie (Nov 9, 2019)

There are three ways of investing that work;
equal piles

Stick with low or no leverage

direct investment


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## Manonthestreet (Nov 9, 2019)

william the wie said:


> There are three ways of investing that work;
> equal piles
> 
> Stick with low or no leverage
> ...


Thoughts on current market?


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## MarathonMike (Nov 9, 2019)

S&P 500 P/E ratio is over 23 to 1. That is historically very high. Always good to look at how you are allocated as well as putting new money in when it gets this high.


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## Manonthestreet (Nov 9, 2019)

MarathonMike said:


> S&P 500 P/E ratio is over 23 to 1. That is historically very high. Always good to look at how you are allocated as well as putting new money in when it gets this high.


I'm overbalanced  risk wise for my age the experts would say, but ya gotta make hay while the sun is shining. Figure if I stick 100% of new deposits in the money market fund and I miss some upside not a big deal and if it does reverse some in next 3 to 6 months I have a pile of money to put to work at lower prices


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## Pavel Svinchnik (Nov 10, 2019)

toobfreak said:


> Manonthestreet said:
> 
> 
> > Track my 401 on a weekly basis and I have not seen anything like what its done in last five weeks. All of the instruments are at 52 week highs save for the bond fund. I have a set amount I consider next floor up and I've blown thru 4 in that time.  Strongly considering putting entire weekly amount in the  *Guaranteed fund which is cash that's pays 2.3%. Hate to buying at highs across the board.
> ...



I believe that the "stupid tards" are a significant portion of the electorate who will vote for whomever promises them more free stuff by stealing it from others.


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## BuckToothMoron (Nov 20, 2019)

MarathonMike said:


> S&P 500 P/E ratio is over 23 to 1. That is historically very high. Always good to look at how you are allocated as well as putting new money in when it gets this high.



Especially high when the amount of stock buybacks is taken into the equation.


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## CWayne (Nov 20, 2019)

Manonthestreet said:


> MarathonMike said:
> 
> 
> > S&P 500 P/E ratio is over 23 to 1. That is historically very high. Always good to look at how you are allocated as well as putting new money in when it gets this high.
> ...



I'm up 17% for the year which isn't too terrible.  I've been thinking of switching to a more risk-oriented profile, but knowing my luck, I'll do it just as the market trends down or tanks.


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## BuckToothMoron (Nov 20, 2019)

Manonthestreet said:


> MarathonMike said:
> 
> 
> > S&P 500 P/E ratio is over 23 to 1. That is historically very high. Always good to look at how you are allocated as well as putting new money in when it gets this high.
> ...



It’s impossible to give specific suggestions without knowing your age and how you are allocated now. With that said- take a look at what the smart money is doing. To that end- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is holding over $120 Billion in cash while the Buffett Indicator, market cap over GDP, Is in the danger zone, meaning the market is waaaaay over valued.


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## MarathonMike (Nov 20, 2019)

Manonthestreet said:


> MarathonMike said:
> 
> 
> > S&P 500 P/E ratio is over 23 to 1. That is historically very high. Always good to look at how you are allocated as well as putting new money in when it gets this high.
> ...


If you are overbalanced already it would seem wise to not keep buying into a very expensive market.


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## Natural Citizen (Nov 20, 2019)

There are 17 trillion dollars in bonds with negative interest rates. It's the biggest bond bubble in history.

It's going to burst.


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## Manonthestreet (Nov 20, 2019)

BuckToothMoron said:


> Manonthestreet said:
> 
> 
> > MarathonMike said:
> ...


Went to fixed interest rate fund for all new money couple days after I started this thread.


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## william the wie (Nov 29, 2019)

me, I'm looking at strike price and premium on covered options for high dividend underlying issues and I do not see a down side on my watch list. A really strange and boring market.


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## Manonthestreet (Nov 29, 2019)

william the wie said:


> me, I'm looking at strike price and premium on covered options for high dividend underlying issues and I do not see a down side on my watch list. A really strange and boring market.


An orderly consolidation would be nice, some base building. Flash crashes of omg trade war haven't shaken out the dead  wood. About to go thru another floor, barely maintaining my ratio of fixed assets despite my adjustment.
Hoping to make it to dividend season  without having to adjust balances in the various funds.


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## william the wie (Nov 29, 2019)

Manonthestreet said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> > me, I'm looking at strike price and premium on covered options for high dividend underlying issues and I do not see a down side on my watch list. A really strange and boring market.
> ...



Yeah rebalancing is a pain but it does work.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Nov 30, 2019)

Natural Citizen said:


> There are 17 trillion dollars in bonds with negative interest rates. It's the biggest bond bubble in history.
> 
> It's going to burst.



Don't buy any foreign bonds with negative rates.


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## The Banker (Dec 1, 2019)

Manonthestreet said:


> Track my 401 on a weekly basis and I have not seen anything like what its done in last five weeks. All of the instruments are at 52 week highs save for the bond fund. I have a set amount I consider next floor up and I've blown thru 4 in that time.  Strongly considering putting entire weekly amount in the  *Guaranteed fund which is cash that's pays 2.3%. Hate to buying at highs across the board.
> Your thoughts.
> 
> Dont know why it went to dark font*


It is hard to say as market timing is very difficult, especially with this trade war in the background.

I think we have some more upside then the big  crash will hit approximately end of 2020, but who knows for sure.  Follow the economic data, right now the consumer is propping up the economy, and unemployment is at extreme lows.  That just can't last forever.  I think that company earnings will slow in 2020, which could then cause a chain reaction of a hiring slowdown and a drop in consumer spending, leading to the recession.

It depends how aggressive you are, but I wouldn't be buying at these levels at all unless you are looking for shorter term swings.  Mainly I am a buy the pullback on great stocks type trader.  If ROKU can dump out again I'm in. 

I would love a parabolic bubble type movement, like end of 2017, but I am looking to slowly take profits now and try my hand at the big short. Then try to buy in at a lower level, using prior tops as support.  All of which is much easier said than done.  SPY to the 158 level on a recession would make me very happy.

Or you could buy solid dividend stocks on pullbacks as they tend to hold their price much better  during recessions/corrections.  A certain investor on here incorporates this type of strategy.

If we get a trade deal (which I doubt we will) then who knows what will happen.


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## The Banker (Dec 2, 2019)

ROKU dump out right on cue!!

I'm waiting for more downside tho, if it can make it to the ER 120 level that would be a low risk buy point.

I love this stock!


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## Manonthestreet (Jan 18, 2020)

Still flying. Got the dividends, went all fixed funds and haven't put a dent in that ratio yet. Still below 10%. Currently 50 fixed 50 EURO/Pac with Brexit and Chinese trade deal.


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## Manonthestreet (Mar 1, 2020)

I am now exactly back to where I was when I started this thread...plus$50....while the DOW is  roughly 2250 points lower than it was then. Feeling good about current situation, New money is 50% cash yet and 50% whatever has lost the most which right now is large cap. Was expecting it to be Euro/Pac or small cap.


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## MarathonMike (Mar 1, 2020)

Here is an article looking at the impact of the Spanish Flu 100 years ago on the stock market. Obviously this cannot be an apples to apples comparison of the present day situation but it's an interesting read.

The Spanish Flu and the Stock Market: The Pandemic of 1919 - Global Financial Data


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