# which state will go under first?



## william the wie (Jun 29, 2015)

The subject of default came up again with PR's problems and Greece's. For example IL has been in default of unbonded debt for an extremely long time so which state will go under first and why


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## EatMorChikin (Jun 29, 2015)

Michigan will go first. That place is on life support as we speak.


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## HereWeGoAgain (Jun 29, 2015)

Thats a very good question.......
Which states are the most in debt without the ability to pay the note?
   But again thats a damn good question!
Will it be a dense population state that cant pay the bills?


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## TheOldSchool (Jun 29, 2015)

Illinois has the worst credit rating of all the states.  And it's so much higher than Greece's rating that they can't even be compared.  If that's what your worried about.


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## william the wie (Jun 29, 2015)

HereWeGoAgain said:


> Thats a very good question.......
> Which states are the most in debt without the ability to pay the note?
> But again thats a damn good question!
> Will it be a dense population state that cant pay the bills?


The latter I suspect. IL, NJ, NY and CT all have people from the financial sector who help gimmick the books and a heavy mob presence that reduces whistle-blowing. That is quite an effective strategy for day to day operations but reduces longer run effectiveness. For example Atlantic City is a periodic point failure for NJ and NY is highly dependent on NYC old school media and the branching out into new media does not generate anywhere near as many jobs.


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## william the wie (Jun 29, 2015)

TheOldSchool said:


> Illinois has the worst credit rating of all the states.  And it's so much higher than Greece's rating that they can't even be compared.  If that's what your worried about.


Considering that the IL canal secures state loans and IL has the lowest bond rating in the lower 48 that's an extremely weak argument.


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## prison/con.net (Jun 29, 2015)

When one goes, the others will follow, in short order, cause the pols will try to prop up the fallen with more and more taxation of the others and with inflation.


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## william the wie (Jun 29, 2015)

prison/con.net said:


> When one goes, the others will follow, in short order, cause the pols will try to prop up the fallen with more and more taxation of the others and with inflation.


Bank-run style contagion tends to be international in transmission. A flight to relative safety in the US dollar and munis would drive yields down to very low levels before the suicidal instincts of the yield whores kick in. At which point trillions of dollars would be lining up at the exits to go back to the high yields of Argentina. Greece, the Ukraine and of course Zimbabwe at which point even some states with sound finances might have to pass around IOUs for a couple of months and even marginally bad states could go under in a huge wave.


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## Zander (Jun 29, 2015)

Illinois is a train wreck. New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut have huge debts. Hawaii is another state that is deeply in debt. And of course, California has it's massive debt. 

Good times!


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## william the wie (Jun 30, 2015)

I think we will see a drop in interest rates prior to the rapid domino fall but otherwise I have to concur Zander


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## jwoodie (Jul 6, 2015)

Will the U.S. Treasury "invest" in State bonds to keep them afloat?


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## william the wie (Jul 7, 2015)

jwoodie said:


> Will the U.S. Treasury "invest" in State bonds to keep them afloat?


 I have no idea


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## Missourian (Jul 8, 2015)

Ranking the States by Fiscal Condition Mercatus

The Blue states are "to big to fail"...the Federal government will at least try to bail them out.

But if the Chinese stock market tanks,  there may be no more money to borrow.


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## william the wie (Jul 8, 2015)

Technically KY is a purple state but counting it as red is less likely to generate the usual tis/taint crap.  That means 92% of the bad and worse states are D.


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## Delta4Embassy (Jul 8, 2015)

HereWeGoAgain said:


> Thats a very good question.......
> Which states are the most in debt without the ability to pay the note?
> But again thats a damn good question!
> Will it be a dense population state that cant pay the bills?



It is a good question.

Think California. Drought will see to that. Only a viable prosperous state because of water. Once that runs out much of Cali reverts to natural desert.


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## william the wie (Jul 8, 2015)

Delta4Embassy said:


> HereWeGoAgain said:
> 
> 
> > Thats a very good question.......
> ...


Drought induced fires is only one part of Cali's trifecta of doom. Even drought alternating with floods like Australia while very bad is OK if not subject to earthquakes. Mudslides shifting the weight above tectonic plates cause delayed earthquakes. This drought could end with a bang given the size of the el nino that could be record breaking if it keeps growing. Earthquake code increases vulnerability to storm damage and a serious tropical wave would just about wreck CA and an earthquake no more than two years later would cause much greater damage than expected.


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## Treeshepherd (Jul 8, 2015)

California agriculture is a $42 billion industry, with at least another $100 billion in related economic activity.

That seems huge until you consider the gross state product is $2.3 trillion.


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## william the wie (Jul 9, 2015)

Another risk to the left coast is the canal expansion and canal building in Central America. With knock on effects I suspect that CA logistics is a trillion in economic impact but most knock on effects and especially their magnitude can only be fully identified after the fact so I suspect that the figure put out is much, much smaller.


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## HenryBHough (Jul 9, 2015)

If oil prices stay down Alaska will be first.


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## william the wie (Jul 9, 2015)

HenryBHough said:


> If oil prices stay down Alaska will be first.


How much debt does it have?


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## HenryBHough (Jul 9, 2015)

william the wie said:


> How much debt does it have?



Won't be debt; rather pension liabilities and the total unwillingness of the legislature and Democrat (posing as "independent") governor to comprehend that outgo is approximately double income.  For now there are reserves.
Reserves that will last about 1.5 years after which the fat lady sings.


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## Mr. H. (Jul 9, 2015)

Illinois' corruption and cronyism are deep-rooted and span every county in the state. 
We are so fucked.


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## william the wie (Jul 9, 2015)

HenryBHough said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> > How much debt does it have?
> ...


 During the general election?


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## HenryBHough (Jul 9, 2015)

william the wie said:


> During the general election?



Will there be one?


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## william the wie (Jul 10, 2015)

I would think so


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## HenryBHough (Jul 10, 2015)

Ah, faith!


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## william the wie (Jul 10, 2015)

HenryBHough said:


> Ah, faith!


Not really it should be big news about 12 or 13 months from now when op-research is leaked to PACs and other non-campaign, campaign vehicles. Unless an even bigger scandal makes it small potatoes. If this problem is known now it will be known in greater detail then and can be used even more effectively, isn't that obvious?


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## JiggsCasey (Jul 13, 2015)

Does anyone actually stop and wonder why there exists such a systemic global debt crisis in the first place? I mean, beyond the mouth-breathing reactionaries who utter the "socialism" mantra over and over again?

Citing "corruption" only gets you so far when searching for the answer. There has always been corruption.

In any event, my guess is one of the Dakotas, as soon as the fallout from the ongoing shale collapse is fully realized.


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## william the wie (Jul 13, 2015)

JiggsCasey said:


> Does anyone actually stop and wonder why there exists such a systemic global debt crisis in the first place? I mean, beyond the mouth-breathing reactionaries who utter the "socialism" mantra over and over again?
> 
> Citing "corruption" only gets you so far when searching for the answer. There has always been corruption.
> 
> In any event, my guess is one of the Dakotas, as soon as the fallout from the ongoing shale collapse is fully realized.



Three errors for the price one:! Yea!

The US rig count started increasing again weeks ago.

Economic policies right or left are based on the proposition that major balance sheet issues do not matter and Robert Shiller got the Nobel by proving that to be idiocy.

Socialism is noted for data free theorizing (not just in economics), a belief that normal curve stats can probe the null hypothesis and is therefore a free fire zone for all political stupidity.


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## JiggsCasey (Jul 13, 2015)

william the wie said:


> Three errors for the price one:! Yea!
> 
> The US rig count started increasing again weeks ago.
> 
> ...



So, yeah... Doubling down on the "socialism" excuse then? Cool.

"U.S. rig count increasing again" for a few weeks conveniently ignores the enormous 55% drop since last year, assumes the piddly increase will continue, and ignores the new dip in oil prices. Surely you realize there's a lag period between price swings and the number of new leases. Surely you realize they'll never return to the rig numbers of 2014 again without oil prices that will break economies.

Anyhow, the reason for the global debt crisis has far more to do with geology than it does some lazy label of "socialism." Some people confuse symptom with diagnosis over and over again.


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## imawhosure (Jul 13, 2015)

I would have bet on Illinois until they elected a conservative businessperson as governor to fix it.  Will they take the pain to do it?  That remains to be seen.

So, now I am back to California.  They keep going further left, and having a large outflow of businesses and people leaving, while having a large influx of illegals to support.

By the way.................does anyone notice these states run mostly by the left are collapsing?  States that have been basically run by the left for decades.  Large cities too, almost all run by the left, and mostly all broke or deep in debt.

Why would anyone who works vote for the  far left????????


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## HenryBHough (Jul 13, 2015)

There are seven states nobody is considering!

Thing is, only one person knows the names of those states and He isn't talking (about that).


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## JiggsCasey (Jul 13, 2015)

imawhosure said:


> I would have bet on Illinois until they elected a conservative businessperson as governor to fix it.  Will they take the pain to do it?  That remains to be seen.
> 
> So, now I am back to California.  They keep going further left, and having a large outflow of businesses and people leaving, while having a large influx of illegals to support.
> 
> ...



LOL!!! ... How did that conservative utopia work out in Kansas?


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## imawhosure (Jul 13, 2015)

JiggsCasey said:


> imawhosure said:
> 
> 
> > I would have bet on Illinois until they elected a conservative businessperson as governor to fix it.  Will they take the pain to do it?  That remains to be seen.
> ...




Actually, pretty well I would say.  Seems their unemployment rate is down in the 4s, and the money is now flowing in to the treasury.  But, if you would like to discuss California, Illinois, New Jersey, against Kansas as far as fiscal responsibility, let us have that conversation!

Hey, how is Detroit doing by the way?  Chicago?  How is that crime rate working out for all of you in New York after Gulliani left?  Hey, Baltimore looks like a liberal paradise too.  It is more than obvious that states and cities that liberals have controlled forever are now collapsing.  Just look at the out flow of people and business from Illinois and California.

And for you liberal business people, why don't you relocate to Detroit?  Maybe you would like the taxes of L.A?  How about one of you new start up fast food places moving to Seattle?

Libs do not have an economic leg to stand on.  You explain how as a President you can spend 7 trillion in the hole, and have almost 30% of the workforce out of a job!!!!!!  For 7 trillion dollars we could have purchased 1 or 2 of 15% of the countries of the world!  It is absolutely ridiculous, and anyone who has been around longer than 25 years on this planet knows it.


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## JiggsCasey (Jul 13, 2015)

imawhosure said:


> Actually, pretty well I would say.



Where gutting education and earned-income tax credits and losing 11% in state revenue is a sign of victory in the mind of a soulless con. 



imawhosure said:


> Seems their unemployment rate is down in the 4s, and the money is now flowing in to the treasury.  But, if you would like to discuss California, Illinois, New Jersey, against Kansas as far as fiscal responsibility, let us have that conversation!



If we frame the debate using the convenient criteria you prefer, I'm sure it can look like Kansas is paradise by comparison. The poor, however, would see it quite differently. In any event, link your claim, and be careful the criteria used to define "employment." 

Here's what's clear: Kansas, doing precisely what Jesus WOULDN'T do, butchering aid for the poor/working class and slashing state revenue for the benefit of the rich. The fallout has been a downgrade from Moody's and S&P, fiscal deficits, larger class sizes, rising fees for kindergarten, the elimination of arts programs, and lots and lots of laid-off janitors and librarians. Good job!!



imawhosure said:


> Hey, how is Detroit doing by the way?  Chicago?



Pretty awful, but not for the dumb partisan causes you undoubtedly attribute to them.



imawhosure said:


> How is that crime rate working out for all of you in New York after Gulliani left? Hey, Baltimore looks like a liberal paradise too.  It is more than obvious that states and cities that liberals have controlled forever are now collapsing.  Just look at the out flow of people and business from Illinois and California.



Again, not for the dumb, paranoid partisan causes you think. I know it's easier for you trolls to go through life pretending everything bad is caused by leftists, and everything good and pure is initiated by conservatives. But the reality is FAR more complex, and not a good look at all for the selfish. 

Nothing you cite there isn't easily attributable to soulless corporate business practice and widening income inequality.



imawhosure said:


> And for you liberal business people, why don't you relocate to Detroit?  Maybe you would like the taxes of L.A?  How about one of you new start up fast food places moving to Seattle?
> 
> Libs do not have an economic leg to stand on.



Ah yes, economics... the soft science (based on a number of well-documented false assumptions) that your ilk worships with cult-like furor. Well, I can't speak for all liberals, but I do know what we Greens stand for. We DO have the ONLY legs to stand on, because we understand the Earth's natural limits and how they always trump the hollow laws of supply and demand. We don't pretend accounting tricks and financial deregulation can maintain growth for an economy. That's your team's unscientific agenda.



imawhosure said:


> You explain how as a President you can spend 7 trillion in the hole, and have almost 30% of the workforce out of a job!!!!!!  For 7 trillion dollars we could have purchased 1 or 2 of 15% of the countries of the world!  It is absolutely ridiculous, and anyone who has been around longer than 25 years on this planet knows it.



Classic con job relying 100% upon straw-man emptiness. You spew as if Detroit and Baltimore's problems are somehow the result of "liberalism," instead of the real culprit... decades of unethical tax-dodging by corporations more interested in moving their business model overseas.

It never gets old watching you guys point to deficits and how money could be wiser spent, while you all - to a man - conveniently ignore the trillions lost to unfunded oil/pipeline/poppy wars (based on fraud), unwarranted tax cuts (but only for the rich) and the disaster that was Medicare Part D. But we understand. ... It's different when your side does it, as you'd prefer everyone to believe.


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## william the wie (Jul 13, 2015)

liberalism = import the poor and export jobs. JiggsCasey is doing a wonderful job of selling left-progressive positions. Keep believing and stay in whatever hellhole you reside in.


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## JiggsCasey (Jul 14, 2015)

william the wie said:


> liberalism = import the poor and export jobs.



Well, in the bizarro mind of the con, anyway. Meanwhile, closer to the mark:

Conservatism = squeeze and incarcerate the poor, privatize profit, socialize risk...  and export jobs



william the wie said:


> JiggsCasey is doing a wonderful job of selling left-progressive positions. Keep believing and stay in whatever hellhole you reside in.



LOL...you have no idea what positions I'd sell, troll. Only the dumb stereotypes and straw men that your narrow news sources allow you to guess.


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## william the wie (Jul 14, 2015)

Evolution in action is resulting in the demise of liberals as a political force.


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## william the wie (Jul 14, 2015)

HenryBHough said:


> There are seven states nobody is considering!
> 
> Thing is, only one person knows the names of those states and He isn't talking (about that).


CA, CT, IL, KY, NJ, NY and RI are the whens not ifs. Contagion could take out others but only in the north east corridor is that really possible and I don't think all of them are going to blow. AK, NV, OR, and WA are possibilities on the left coast but that is dependent on Panama Canal expansion delivering a knock out blow.


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## imawhosure (Jul 14, 2015)

JiggsCasey said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> > liberalism = import the poor and export jobs.
> ...




Well, here you go!  Statistics prove who is correct.  If you are soooooo confident in your libby ideas, lets all make a deal......we conservatives will buy bonds in Kansas with our money; the state you are laughing at, and you invest your money in bonds for California.  Let us see you put your money (if you have a pot to piss in) where your mouth is, instead of trying to FORCE the rest of us to put OUR money where you want us too!  A Taxing Tale Of Two States Illinois And Kansas - Forbes

The only reason I am not choosing Illinois is because even the libs are so pissed off, they just elected a conservative businessperson as governor.  He might save them.  Therefore, where the loony left has all of their nuts in one crazy house is a better choice, where it is LEFT all the time, every time.  Yep, California is the perfect place for you libs to invest some of your nickels-)


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## william the wie (Jul 14, 2015)

There's no need to bet because the timeline is uncertain. Munis have been paying a lot more aftertax than treasuries for quite a while now based on risk and games like those that have been played in CA munis and that does have its effects. 

For example the reason rig count went down so fast is that wildcat drillers got loan covenants that CA and IL can only fantasize about. The reason rig count is coming back slow is the Gatwick field and other less famous fracking fields overseas. Even the latest uptick in CalPers returns is not likely to reduce the rates and covenants that CA has to put up with.


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