# Robert Prechter says bull market over



## Zander (Apr 28, 2015)

Robert Prechter (of the Elliot Wave Theorist) sent an interim bulletin to his subscribers yesterday. He says the bull in stocks is over. The topping process will be completed over the next few weeks. He expects the market to shift from complacency to fear.

He then posited that , If he's right, this is very bad news for the Clinton's. Bear markets bring scandal to fore. The current Clinton scandal will only get worse as the destructive social mood that will emerge in a bear market will differ entirely from the supportive bull market of the 1990's and the last few years when they kept getting off the hook......

May you live in interesting times.


----------



## Toddsterpatriot (Apr 28, 2015)

He's funny.
I'll never forget the buy call he made....it was Monday morning October 19, 1987.


----------



## william the wie (Apr 28, 2015)

With 2017 (look up non-incumbents elected president in years ending in 6) and 2010 coming up yeah that's a safe bet.


----------



## Zander (Apr 28, 2015)

Toddsterpatriot said:


> He's funny.
> I'll never forget the buy call he made....it was Monday morning October 19, 1987.



You're mistaken. He actually gave a sell signal in October 1987 and it's very well documented. Maybe you're thinking of someone else?


----------



## Zander (Apr 28, 2015)

Toddsterpatriot said:


> He's funny.
> I'll never forget the buy call he made....it was Monday morning October 19, 1987.



Ok- here is the real deal -: Market Bears Prechter Out Leading Analyst Predicts A Down Wave For Market - tribunedigital-orlandosentinel

On Oct. 5, Prechter advised his newsletter subscribers to sell all their stocks and invest in cash-equivalent investments, such as money-market funds.

On Oct. 15, he changed his mind. In a special bulletin subscribers received Black Monday, Prechter suggested that they resume buying stocks but to sell those stocks if the Dow Jones industrial average fell to 2,170. (Prechter recommends using stop-losses, orders to sell stocks if prices drop to a certain level. The Dow closed at 2,413 Oct. 14 and at 2,355 Oct. 15.)

Most investors, fortunately, had little, if any, time to act on Prechter's advice because of the rapid descent of stock prices. On Black Monday, the Dow, a familiar measure of stock prices, plunged an unprecedented 508 points to 1,739.






Measuring a market analyst's accuracy is difficult, Prechter said. ''Suppose I say, 'The market should rally to 2,080,' and the market peaks at 2,100? Somebody might say, 'Wow, that's a great call.' Another person might say, 'No, you said 2,080, and the market went to 2,100.' ''

Everyone makes mistakes, Prechter said, so the real issues are how often do stock-market analysts stumble and whether their clients lose money.


----------



## Toddsterpatriot (Apr 28, 2015)

Zander said:


> Toddsterpatriot said:
> 
> 
> > He's funny.
> ...


 
Nope. My boss subscribed to his newletter.
You could call and hear his recorded messages.
On Monday morning, after the first 100 point down day ever, the previous Friday,
he had a buy recommendation. My boss recorded it. For some reason, it stuck in my mind.


----------



## Zander (Apr 28, 2015)

Toddsterpatriot said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> > Toddsterpatriot said:
> ...


see my post above yours.


----------



## Toddsterpatriot (Apr 28, 2015)

Zander said:


> Toddsterpatriot said:
> 
> 
> > Zander said:
> ...


 
I saw it. And his Monday morning message said buy.


----------



## Toddsterpatriot (Apr 28, 2015)

Zander said:


> Toddsterpatriot said:
> 
> 
> > He's funny.
> ...


 
*On Oct. 15, he changed his mind. In a special bulletin subscribers received Black Monday, Prechter suggested that they resume buying stocks but to sell those stocks if the Dow Jones industrial average fell to 2,170. (Prechter recommends using stop-losses, orders to sell stocks if prices drop to a certain level. The Dow closed at 2,413 Oct. 14 and at 2,355 Oct. 15.)*

And at 2247, Friday's close, he said buy.

*Everyone makes mistakes*

No kidding. 27 years later, I still chuckle when I see his name.


----------



## Ryan Foreman (Apr 28, 2015)

Zander said:


> Robert Prechter (of the Elliot Wave Theorist) sent an interim bulletin to his subscribers yesterday. He says the bull in stocks is over. The topping process will be completed over the next few weeks. He expects the market to shift from complacency to fear.
> 
> He then posited that , If he's right, this is very bad news for the Clinton's. Bear markets bring scandal to fore. The current Clinton scandal will only get worse as the destructive social mood that will emerge in a bear market will differ entirely from the supportive bull market of the 1990's and the last few years when they kept getting off the hook......
> 
> May you live in interesting times.



Seems reasonable enough prediction.  But you completely lost me with what it has to do specifically with the Clintons and their history of scandals.   Hillary simply running for President is what brings scandals to the forefront.  Not a bad economy.   And btw, a bear market in itself doesn't mean a bad economy.  That is what is so messed up about the stock market in current years.   A lot of Americans are just as well off in a bear market because money it tends to mean there is (god forbid) wage inflation and otherwise lower prices.


----------



## Zander (Apr 28, 2015)

Ryan Foreman said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> > Robert Prechter (of the Elliot Wave Theorist) sent an interim bulletin to his subscribers yesterday. He says the bull in stocks is over. The topping process will be completed over the next few weeks. He expects the market to shift from complacency to fear.
> ...



We agree. I also do not  believe the price of stocks has anything to do with "the economy".  

As to the Clinton's- Prechter has a philosophy that he calls "socionomics".  He explains it here....Socionomics Explained

He makes a compelling case.


----------



## william the wie (May 8, 2015)

While not a big fan of Prechter or many others sell in May and walk away is usually a good idea.


----------



## Zander (Aug 24, 2015)

Prechter was right.


----------



## jon_berzerk (Aug 24, 2015)

-830 yikes


----------



## william the wie (Aug 24, 2015)

The market is not yet an official bear so this could be a relatively minor tremor.


----------



## B. Kidd (Aug 24, 2015)

william the wie said:


> The market is not yet an official bear so this could be a relatively minor tremor.



Dow plunged before close today.
Tomorrow not looking any better.


----------



## william the wie (Aug 24, 2015)

B. Kidd said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> > The market is not yet an official bear so this could be a relatively minor tremor.
> ...



A 15-19% head fake plus recovery before the serious carnage begins would be my guess. Commodity and productivity driven deflation seem to be here to stay.


----------



## B. Kidd (Aug 26, 2015)

william the wie said:


> B. Kidd said:
> 
> 
> > william the wie said:
> ...



I didn't want to reply to your post until I saw todays' close (Wed.). Monday, an intraday bear-trap, Tuesday, another one, tho' less got trapped, today +600 points at the close. It will still take a couple of months of volitility to shake out, but I think your post is spot-on for the short term!!! (I knew there was a reason I liked you........).


----------



## william the wie (Aug 26, 2015)

I suspect a minor return of the bear if the Sept. rate increase is postponed but a couple of things will have to sink in before there is blood flowing in the streets:

Deflation and deleveraging is being imported into the US.

China-EU trade has crashed according to the BDI in large part because China is experiencing more outsourcing than we are. African workers are reaching the point where they can replace no longer cheap Asian labor. Everyone and especially China has missed the boat on this one.


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 27, 2015)

Hmmmmmmmmm.................  Up over 900 points since Wednesday morning. Still going up. Looks like it was a case of Nervous Nellies.


----------



## boedicca (Aug 27, 2015)

Big Money likes dips which cause panicked retail investors to sell into the bottom.  They profit from this pattern.


----------



## B. Kidd (Aug 27, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Hmmmmmmmmm.................  Up over 900 points since Wednesday morning. Still going up. Looks like it was a case of Nervous Nellies.



Don't put your party hat on, just yet. Lows get tested again within the next two weeks.


----------



## william the wie (Aug 31, 2015)

I think that has begun.


----------



## B. Kidd (Sep 1, 2015)

william the wie said:


> I think that has begun.



New lows being tested sooner than later.......down 469 today..........


----------



## william the wie (Sep 2, 2015)

B. Kidd said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> > I think that has begun.
> ...


I understand your reasoning and it is sound as far as I goes but I suspect the real damage will start with either Iranian oil dropping oil to say half of today's price or China's problems get too bad to gloss over. The coming rate hike will get blamed but I doubt that will be the real problem.


----------



## Zander (Sep 2, 2015)

The market is no longer a "buy the dip" market, it's now a "sell the rally" market.


----------



## Zander (Sep 2, 2015)

When bubbles burst and recessions hit, Congress and the Federal Reserve should refrain from trying to “stimulate” the economy via increased spending, corporate bailouts, and inflation. The only way the economy will ever fully recover is if Congress and the Fed allow the recession to run its course. -Ron Paul


----------



## william the wie (Sep 2, 2015)

Zander said:


> When bubbles burst and recessions hit, Congress and the Federal Reserve should refrain from trying to “stimulate” the economy via increased spending, corporate bailouts, and inflation. The only way the economy will ever fully recover is if Congress and the Fed allow the recession to run its course. -Ron Paul


I agree but for different reasons than Paul uses. The use of three or more choices for the same product in order to get more and faster sales in nearly all markets also creates three or more levels of symmetry of scale in math terms. That is the definition of a chaotical system.

I go through "The Great Courses" Chaos course every couple of years and "The Essence of Chaos" by Lorenz when I'm really desperate to figure out what in hell is going on. Short form there are low profit commoditized markets and there are chaotic markets, which are more profitable. Given that current economic models are based on the myth of equilibrium instead of the reality of strange attractors the Fed and congress will not merely screw the pooch but bugger poor Brutus blind as about a 10 to 1 favorite.


----------

