# Predictions - next 6 trading days



## DavidS

Friday - November 21 - Dow rallies 300+ points on people moving in to buy cheap stocks.

Monday - November 24 - Dow falls 200+ points on bad news
Tuesday - November 25 - Dow up 100+ points 
Wednesday - November 26 - Quiet day, light trading
Thursday - November 27 - CLOSED
Friday - November 28 - FREEFALL - Speculation about horrible holiday season
Monday - December 1 - Dow rallies on speculation of an auto bailout

By the time the automakers are back on Capitol Hill begging for money in their $10,000 suits, the dow will be around 7900. 

By the time the year ends, we'll be around 6200.


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## AVG-JOE

DavidS said:


> Friday - November 21 - Dow rallies 300+ points on people moving in to buy cheap stocks.
> 
> Monday - November 24 - Dow falls 200+ points on bad news
> Tuesday - November 25 - Dow up 100+ points
> Wednesday - November 26 - Quiet day, light trading
> Thursday - November 27 - CLOSED
> Friday - November 28 - FREEFALL - Speculation about horrible holiday season
> Monday - December 1 - Dow rallies on speculation of an auto bailout
> 
> By the time the automakers are back on Capitol Hill begging for money in their $10,000 suits, the dow will be around 7900.
> 
> By the time the year ends, we'll be around 6200.



We need to keep this thread up until Dec 1 just to see if you have crystal balls!  

-Joe


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## tigerbob

AVG-JOE said:


> We need to keep this thread up until Dec 1 just to see if you have crystal balls!
> 
> -Joe



If he has crystal balls I don't wish to see.


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## DavidS

AVG-JOE said:


> We need to keep this thread up until Dec 1 just to see if you have crystal balls!
> 
> -Joe



If I'm wrong, I'll use whatever avatar Crimson chooses for me to use... except for a Boston Red Sox avatar. I will NEVER use anything remotely related to those vile pieces of scum.


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## NOBama

DavidS said:


> If I'm wrong, I'll use whatever avatar Crimson chooses for me to use... except for a Boston Red Sox avatar. I will NEVER use anything remotely related to those vile pieces of scum.


 
If the following is any indicator of today's action, I want to help CW pick out your new avatar.



> AP
> 
> European, Asian markets rebound despite US losses
> Friday November 21, 5:56 am ET
> By Pan Pylas, AP Business Writer European, Asian markets rebound despite
> 
> Wall Street losses as investors buy up battered stocks
> 
> LONDON (AP) -- European and Asian stock markets rebounded Friday as expectations of a recovery on Wall Street prompted investors to scoop up battered financial and energy shares.
> 
> The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 42.78 points, or 1.1 percent, at 3,917.77, while Germany's DAX was 46.59 points, or 1.1 percent, higher at 4,266.79. The CAC-40 in France was up 34.62 points, or 1.2 percent, at 3,015.04.
> 
> More


 
Oh yeah, world futures are up nicely, as well.


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## editec

There's just too much bad news out there waiting in the wings for me to think that the market is going to rally anytime soon.

PERHAPS Obama can change this nation's zietgiest when he take office.

But right now, now while people who are working are worried about losing their jobs, and while hundreds of thousands of people are losing their jobs every month, while the prices of people's real estate continues to drop, while banks are continuing to hoarde money, I cannot see anything that can rally confidence on Wall STREET or MAIN STREET.

I see no plans in the Obaman gameplan that will change the FUNDAMENTAL problem that is destroying this nation's economy.


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## NOBama

editec said:


> There's just too much bad news out there waiting in the wings for me to think that the market is going to rally anytime soon.
> 
> PERHAPS Obama can change this nation's zietgiest when he take office.
> 
> But right now, now while people who are working are worried about losing their jobs, and while hundreds of thousands of people are losing their jobs every month, while the prices of people's real estate continues to drop, while banks are continuing to hoarde money, I cannot see anything that can rally confidence on Wall STREET or MAIN STREET.
> 
> I see no plans in the Obaman gameplan that will change the FUNDAMENTAL problem that is destroying this nation's economy.


 
Man, when life throws Lemons at us, all we can do is make lemonade.

Until "change" comes, I'm going to kick the market around like a rented mule. I'm not trying to brag so I'll just say: This market has been more than kind to me and it could be to you, as well. Little retailers like us don't even make a dent in the bucket.

The big dogs will determine which way this ship goes, not us, we just sit around and yak, and they know it.


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## AVG-JOE

NOBama said:


> Man, when life throws Lemons at us, all we can do is make lemonade.
> 
> Until "change" comes, I'm going to kick the market around like a rented mule. I'm not trying to brag so I'll just say: This market has been more than kind to me and it could be to you, as well. Little retailers like us don't even make a dent in the bucket.
> 
> The big dogs will determine which way this ship goes, not us, we just sit around and yak, and they know it.



Well said.  Even if Wal-mart doesn't sell as much cheap Chinese crap this year, Christmas is going to come and people have to eat.  

-Joe


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## NOBama

AVG-JOE said:


> Well said. Even if Wal-mart doesn't sell as much cheap Chinese crap this year, Christmas is going to come and people have to eat.
> 
> -Joe


 
That's true (I hope LOL!). I bought some WMT about a week ago. I'm down a few bucks but I'm not worried, _yet_.

As far as staples go, especially food, I've been keeping an eye on companies like Potash (POT). They may wind up doing better than the retailers if the crap continues to hit the fan. POT, like everything else, has taken quite a haircut since our trusted leaders decided to let us know what's going on but, come spring it will head north, IMO. I'm tempted to dabble in it now, but I'm holding out for a while longer.


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## editec

Oh, I do not doubt that a prescient investor can make a killing in this market. In fact a market like this is where people who know what they're doing can make the most money.

But the question wasn't can you or I do well, the question (I thought) was  *will the market rally?* 


My answer to that remains the same.

Not bleedin' likely.


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## DavidS

NOBama said:


> If the following is any indicator of today's action, I want to help CW pick out your new avatar.
> 
> 
> 
> Oh yeah, world futures are up nicely, as well.



As I predicted, stocks are set to SURGE today.


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## DavidS

editec said:


> Oh, I do not doubt that a prescient investor can make a killing in this market. In fact a market like this is where people who know what they're doing can make the most money.
> 
> But the question wasn't can you or I do well, the question (I thought) was  *will the market rally?*
> 
> 
> My answer to that remains the same.
> 
> Not bleedin' likely.



Historically, after a 10%+ loss in stocks, stocks usually rebound the next day. Stocks have lost 11% this week. I say that gets by a third if not a half.


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## Sunni Man

DavidS said:


> As I predicted, stocks are set to SURGE today.


DavisS what have your Zionist masters got planned for the long term?


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## NOBama

DavidS said:


> As I predicted, stocks are set to SURGE today.


 
Ahhh... I missed that + sign.

Gotta admit, there more green on my screens then I've seen in a while.

Here's a sample: 







Taken about 3 min after open, as you can see.


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## DavidS

Looks like the market is giving back a little. It's in the holiday mood. Not good.


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## DavidS

*



			Friday - November 21 - Dow rallies 300+ points on people moving in to buy cheap stocks.
		
Click to expand...

*
Dow up 334 right now.


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## DavidS

Boom! Final close 494. We're above 8,000.


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## user_name_guest

DavidS said:


> If I'm wrong, I'll use whatever avatar Crimson chooses for me to use... except for a Boston Red Sox avatar. I will NEVER use anything remotely related to those vile pieces of scum.



If you are right, you need to start a cult and tell us more prophecies ahead.


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## DavidS

user_name_guest said:


> If you are right, you need to start a cult and tell us more prophecies ahead.



Obama is our messiah!


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## dilloduck

DavidS said:


> Obama is our messiah!



It's not the new jewish Secretary of the Treasury ?


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## CrimsonWhite

DavidS said:


> If I'm wrong, I'll use whatever avatar Crimson chooses for me to use... except for a Boston Red Sox avatar. I will NEVER use anything remotely related to those vile pieces of scum.



I am holding you to this. 

As a matter of fact, I'm putting a sticky on this thread until then, just so we won't forget about it.


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## AVG-JOE

DavidS said:


> *Friday - November 21 - Dow rallies 300+* points on people moving in to buy cheap stocks.
> 
> Monday - November 24 - Dow falls 200+ points on bad news
> Tuesday - November 25 - Dow up 100+ points
> Wednesday - November 26 - Quiet day, light trading
> Thursday - November 27 - CLOSED
> Friday - November 28 - FREEFALL - Speculation about horrible holiday season
> Monday - December 1 - Dow rallies on speculation of an auto bailout
> 
> By the time the automakers are back on Capitol Hill begging for money in their $10,000 suits, the dow will be around 7900.
> 
> By the time the year ends, we'll be around 6200.



DOW up 494 today... So far so good David!  

-Joe


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## DavidS

CrimsonWhite said:


> I am holding you to this.
> 
> As a matter of fact, I'm putting a sticky on this thread until then, just so we won't forget about it.



Do I have to be right on all of them?


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## DavidS

AVG-JOE said:


> DOW up 494 today... So far so good David!
> 
> -Joe


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## usmbtech

So far so good! 6200? Really? I have heard some are guessing around 7200 but 6200!?!


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## DavidS

DanK said:


> So far so good! 6200? Really? I have heard some are guessing around 7200 but 6200!?!



Here's my reasoning for 6200:

We're going to get terrible new unemployment data at the beginning of the month
We're going to get a growth report for November which is going to be terrible
We're going to get auto sales reports which is going to be very ugly
We're going to get press releases about how gloomy retail sales are so far
We could see a report about GM or Ford heading into liquidation

Every single report we're going to get that is any kind of barometer as to how well the economy is doing is going to be worse than we ever expected this recession to be.

Here's also my reasoning for Monday:

Every time the DOW drops 10%, it makes at least half of it back up the next day. This has happened throughout history. It's called the "dead cat bounce." Then the market resumes selling again.


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## editec

> Every time the DOW drops 10%, it makes at least half of it back up the next day. This has happened throughout history. It's called the "dead cat bounce." Then the market resumes selling again.


 
Seems to me that this dead cat, having bounced once, has at least eight more dead cat bounces to go.


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## DavidS

editec said:


> Seems to me that this dead cat, having bounced once, has at least eight more dead cat bounces to go.



We've had several dead cat bounces. 

09-29-2008 - Dow down 777.68 or 6.98%
09-30-2008 - Dow up 485.21 or 4.68%

10-09-2008 - Dow down 678.91 - or 7.33%
10-13-2008 - Dow up 936.42 - or 11.08%

10-22-2008 - Dow down 514.45 - or 5.69%
10-28-2008 - Dow up 889.35 - or 10.88%

11-12-2008 - Dow down 411.30 - or 4.73%
11-13-2008 - Dow up 552.59 - or 6.67%

11-20-2008 - Dow down 444.99 or 5.56%
11-21-2008 - Dow up 494.13 - or 6.54%


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## CrimsonWhite

DavidS said:


> Do I have to be right on all of them?



Those are the terms you laid down.


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## Toro

This is usually the beginning of the strongest time of the year.


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## DavidS

Toro said:


> This is usually the beginning of the strongest time of the year.



My friend, I'm not going to lie to you. This December is going to be one of the worst months on record of the stock market. It's going to be volatile.


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## AVG-JOE

DavidS said:


> My friend, I'm not going to lie to you. This December is going to be one of the worst months on record of the stock market. It's going to be volatile.



Your crystal balls are clanking!    (...not that I don't think you are right. )


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## Toro

DavidS said:


> My friend, I'm not going to lie to you. This December is going to be one of the worst months on record of the stock market. It's going to be volatile.



You may be right.  However, stocks have fallen 20%-25% each of the past two months.  Its difficult to get much worse than this.  

There is liquidity out there.  Investors are sitting on their hands out of fear.  If there are any signs of turning, this thing will rip higher violently.  Even during the Depression, there were 50% bear market rallies.


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## NOBama

Toro said:


> You may be right. However, stocks have fallen 20%-25% each of the past two months. Its difficult to get much worse than this.
> 
> There is liquidity out there. Investors are sitting on their hands out of fear. If there are any signs of turning, this thing will rip higher violently. Even during the Depression, there were 50% bear market rallies.


 
I agree. Over the past 2 weeks I've started rebuilding my portfolio, taking small positions, then averaging down. I got some great prices Friday, before Obama's pick was announced.


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## Neubarth

I am posting to this topic for the first time.  I note that for most of my life, the average P/E of stocks was far far lower than it has been in the past ten years.

Now, I do not know the exact numbers, so I will throw some approximate stuff out there.  The specificity is not the issue, the general trend is.

I believe that the average Price to Earnings ratio from 1930 to 1990 was in the seven to eight range.  Somewhere (exactly where is not important) in the 1990's the P/E ratio started to rise. By the end of the Ninties, stock prices had risen and pushed the P/E ratio into the teens. By 2001 P/E's had jumped to astronomical highs in tech stocks and outrageous levels elsewhere. I worked in the phone industry as a data communications manager for what is now AT&T. The P/E ratio for that stock (then SBC) was 30 as opposed to the normal 8 or 9.

With the reality of the escalation of stock P/Es behind us, it is now likely that the average P/E on stocks could return to the traditional average of seven to eight?

If so, the market could fall another forty to fifty percent.  I do not know about buying back in when that is the risk.

What say you?  Government Bonds are far safer when one realizes what the risk of buying into a falling/correcting stock market is. Is the correction that is occuring a fall to tradition in stock valuation absent this recent ten or so year exhuberance ?????????


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## editec

Neubarth said:


> I am posting to this topic for the first time. I note that for most of my life, the average P/E of stocks was far far lower than it has been in the past ten years.
> 
> Now, I do not know the exact numbers, so I will throw some approximate stuff out there. The specificity is not the issue, the general trend is.
> 
> I believe that the average Price to Earnings ratio from 1930 to 1990 was in the seven to eight range. Somewhere (exactly where is not important) in the 1990's the P/E ratio started to rise. By the end of the Ninties, stock prices had risen and pushed the P/E ratio into the teens. By 2001 P/E's had jumped to astronomical highs in tech stocks and outrageous levels elsewhere. I worked in the phone industry as a data communications manager for what is now AT&T. The P/E ratio for that stock (then SBC) was 30 as opposed to the normal 8 or 9.
> 
> With the reality of the escalation of stock P/Es behind us, it is now likely that the average P/E on stocks could return to the traditional average of seven to eight?
> 
> If so, the market could fall another forty to fifty percent. I do not know about buying back in when that is the risk.
> 
> What say you? Government Bonds are far safer when one realizes what the risk of buying into a falling/correcting stock market is. Is the correction that is occuring a fall to tradition in stock valuation absent this recent ten or so year exhuberance ?????????


 
I'm inclined to agree with your supposition.

The PE ratios have been a form of inflation, but one which our economist have been reluctant to acknowlege as such.

Bascially investments, all kinds of investments, have been a bubble.

This decline in the stock market was inevitable because the stock market has been far healthier than the economy upon which it depends.

The affluent class, which has been enjoying enormous tax breaks (let's remember that the true invetor class once had a 90% top tax rate...now it's 35%) had to put their money SOMEWHERE.

Nturally since they are affluent they invested much of it.

But while they were enjoying affluence, the working class has been suffering a fairly consistent loss of purchasing power.

So while the affluent classes were investing, their investments were basically creating a cituation where more and more money was chasing less and less profit.

PE rations had to eventually go down.

I'm simplifying this argument terribly, I know, but that is, in the marco sense, what I think is happening.

Basically the investment bubble is bursting.

When workers are more affluent, when they are ALSO making enough money to pay their bills, save for their retirements, put their kids through school, as so forth, THEN the stock market's rises will actually be supported by the economy upon which those rising prices are actually based.

The inflation of the prices in the stock market were no less artificial than the rising prices of real estate.  

They were all fueled by cheap money thanks to the policies of the FED.


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## Neubarth

I am also prone to think that a lot of the money pulled out of the market will not return because millions of Baby Boomers have come to the conclusion that they need to be more conservative with their money now that they are of retirement age.

I retired from Pacific Bell--SBC--AT&T in early 2001.  Most of my funds are in US bonds and notes, so the recent fall in the market did not hurt me.  I have been warning my friends for two years now to get out!  GET OUT!  GET OUT!

None of them did, and most of them lost half of their life savings.  Now, they are asking ME what to do, and I tell them that I do not know, but that there is the possibility of further fall to those old P/E ratios.  

As long as that possibility exists, they could still see another fifty percent fall in the value of their life savings.  Their attitude was that the market is the only place that you can make money.  My attitude was that the market was also a place where they could lose their money.

Perspective!


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## editec

Neubarth said:


> I am also prone to think that a lot of the money pulled out of the market will not return because millions of Baby Boomers have come to the conclusion that they need to be more conservative with their money now that they are of retirement age.


 
That's right that money will not be returning anytime soon.

But the reason that it won't is because that money no longer exists.

It existed only in our minds and balance sheets as inflated values on real estate and stocks.

Market corrections are not just a transference of wealth, they are the destruction of imaginary wealth.

We are having an ecoomic meltdown that is coming to us as an illiquidty crises precisely because so much imaginary weath is now recognized as such.

Just take me for example. Assuming my net worth was MOSTLY found in the inflated value of my home, then I FEEL poorer even if my cash flow has not changed at all.

Hence I will cut back on spending because that cushion of cash I thought I had in the value of my home no longer exists.



> I retired from Pacific Bell--SBC--AT&T in early 2001. Most of my funds are in US bonds and notes, so the recent fall in the market did not hurt me. I have been warning my friends for two years now to get out! GET OUT! GET OUT!


 
Now I am sure you know how Cassandra must have felt while she witness the Greeks burning troy to the ground.



> None of them did, and most of them lost half of their life savings. Now, they are asking ME what to do, and I tell them that I do not know, but that there is the possibility of further fall to those old P/E ratios.


 
Remind them not to cry over spilled milk.



> As long as that possibility exists, they could still see another fifty percent fall in the value of their life savings. Their attitude was that the market is the only place that you can make money. My attitude was that the market was also a place where they could lose their money.
> 
> Perspective!


 
Having the vision to forsee problems, but lacking the credibility to be able to save those who won't listen to you about your vision, isn't exactly as satisfying as many people think it must be, is it?

Back in the late 70's I did everything I could to convince my father to dump Sears stock and invest in gold.

Had the old man done that he'd have quadrupled his dough in about six months.

Instead, I watched his net worth cut in half in about the same period.

Whenever we see each other we assiduously avoid discussing investing.


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## Missourian

You all have a much better understanding of the stock market than I do.

I have an image burned into the deepest recesses of my residual reptile brain that is very similar to this one:  







The image that scars my psyche has an old style wood cook stove in it but the same caption...

"Post-war German woman burns money, saying the money burns longer than the firewood it would purchase."


It is very difficult to invest in something real after you realize you don't even hold something real to invest.


Fear not...Luke 12:22-24​


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## DavidS

DavidS said:


> Monday - November 24 - Dow falls 200+ points on bad news



I'm worried about this call with the historic government bailout of Citigroup. All Asian stocks are up following this massive move. This, along with Obama's economic team press conference may move the market massively positive today. The only bad news that we're going to have is October existing home sales. Now, unless this is historically bad news, we could be looking at Dow 8500 tomorrow.


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## tigerbob

Missourian said:


> You all have a much better understanding of the stock market than I do.
> 
> I have an image burned into the deepest recesses of my residual reptile brain that is very similar to this one:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The image that scars my psyche has an old style wood cook stove in it but the same caption...
> 
> "Post-war German woman burns money, saying the money burns longer than the firewood it would purchase."
> 
> 
> It is very difficult to invest in something real after you realize you don't even hold something real to invest.
> 
> 
> Fear not...Luke 12:22-24​



My mother was an opera singer who, in August 1945, visited Berlin with ENSA to put on concerts for the troops stationed there.  She used to tell a story about german women standing at the Brandenburg Gate prepared to trade diamond rings for cartons of cigarettes - the ony thing that really had a tangible value other than chocolates, nylons and scotch.  Heartbreaking.

Admittedly this has little to do with Citibank, but I thought I'd post it anyway.


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## tigerbob

DavidS said:


> I'm worried about this call with the historic government bailout of Citigroup. All Asian stocks are up following this massive move. This, along with Obama's economic team press conference may move the market massively positive today. The only bad news that we're going to have is October existing home sales. Now, unless this is historically bad news, we could be looking at Dow 8500 tomorrow.



Any improvement in the Dow is fine with me.  Stability, and the sooner the better.  That  said, I suspect there are many more weeks or even months of red days to come.


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## editec

The stock market is crazy. It is an excercise in blind faith.

The market no more knows what tomorrow will bring than my dog does.

How many times does the market have to be totally wrong, creating bubbles that make like absolutely NO SENSE, before we stop telling ourselves that the stock market is some kind of diagnostic tool for establishing this nation's economic health?



The market is not rational. If it was, then anyone with an economic model could play it like a violin.

The market is the sum total of people who don't have a clue arrving at an aggregate decision based on nothing more quantitatively metric than our presumed zietgiest of their fear or greed.


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## NOBama

How does one build things like fear, greed, ignorance, or stupidity into an economic model?


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## DavidS

tigerbob said:


> Any improvement in the Dow is fine with me.  Stability, and the sooner the better.  That  said, I suspect there are many more weeks or even months of red days to come.



Yes - the dow has fallen thousands since that 900+ point rally a few weeks back. My call for today is in trouble unless that housing report is very ugly.

Actually, with all of the hooplah, dow futures are only up 121 points. 121 points these days is child's play... a normal day consists of at least 500-600 point swing. We'll go into negative territory after the housing report, then go into positive after the obama press conference and well, who knows where we'll go at the end of the day. The last hour is always pivitol.


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## AVG-JOE

DavidS said:


> Friday - November 21 - Dow rallies 300+ points on people moving in to buy cheap stocks.
> 
> *Monday - November 24 - Dow falls 200+ points on bad news*
> Tuesday - November 25 - Dow up 100+ points
> Wednesday - November 26 - Quiet day, light trading
> Thursday - November 27 - CLOSED
> Friday - November 28 - FREEFALL - Speculation about horrible holiday season
> Monday - December 1 - Dow rallies on speculation of an auto bailout
> 
> By the time the automakers are back on Capitol Hill begging for money in their $10,000 suits, the dow will be around 7900.
> 
> By the time the year ends, we'll be around 6200.



Still 4 hours to trade but the dow is up 331 and looking solid at noon, Nov 24...

Bad news may still be on the horizon, but a new avatar appears to be in your future, David.

-Joe


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## dilloduck

AVG-JOE said:


> Still 4 hours to trade but the dow is up 331 and looking solid at noon, Nov 24...
> 
> Bad news may still be on the horizon, but a new avatar appears to be in your future, David.
> 
> -Joe



LOL dont bother him--he's making money faster than a CEO here and doesn't have to do a lick of work.


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## AVG-JOE

editec said:


> I'm inclined to agree with your supposition.
> 
> The PE ratios have been a form of inflation, but one which our economist have been reluctant to acknowlege as such.
> 
> Bascially investments, all kinds of investments, have been a bubble.
> 
> This decline in the stock market was inevitable because the stock market has been far healthier than the economy upon which it depends.
> 
> The affluent class, which has been enjoying enormous tax breaks (let's remember that the true invetor class once had a 90% top tax rate...now it's 35%) had to put their money SOMEWHERE.
> 
> Nturally since they are affluent they invested much of it.
> 
> But while they were enjoying affluence, the working class has been suffering a fairly consistent loss of purchasing power.
> 
> So while the affluent classes were investing, their investments were basically creating a cituation where more and more money was chasing less and less profit.
> 
> PE rations had to eventually go down.
> 
> I'm simplifying this argument terribly, I know, but that is, in the marco sense, what I think is happening.
> 
> Basically the investment bubble is bursting.
> 
> When workers are more affluent, when they are ALSO making enough money to pay their bills, save for their retirements, put their kids through school, as so forth, THEN the stock market's rises will actually be supported by the economy upon which those rising prices are actually based.
> 
> *The inflation of the prices in the stock market were no less artificial than the rising prices of real estate.
> 
> They were all fueled by cheap money thanks to the policies of the FED.*



I think you hit the nail on the head Editec.  It appears that inflation in certain areas, like real estate, is good for the wealthy class, so The Fed encourages that with cheap money.  I wonder if there is any friggin' way to have an economy that is not manipulated towards the benefit of one class over another...

-Joe


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## dilloduck

AVG-JOE said:


> I think you hit the nail on the head Editec.  It appears that inflation in certain areas, like real estate, is good for the wealthy class, so The Fed encourages that with cheap money.  I wonder if there is any friggin' way to have an economy that is not manipulated towards the benefit of one class over another...
> 
> -Joe



Never---someone will always complain that it's unfair.


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## DavidS

AVG-JOE said:


> Still 4 hours to trade but the dow is up 331 and looking solid at noon, Nov 24...
> 
> Bad news may still be on the horizon, but a new avatar appears to be in your future, David.
> 
> -Joe



It's down to 207 now! It's dropped nearly 150 points since Obama started speaking... thank you, Obama!


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## DavidS

I actually had today and tomorrow mixed up. TOMORROW the Dow will fall over 200 points.


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## NOBama

DavidS said:


> I actually had today and tomorrow mixed up. TOMORROW the Dow will fall over 200 points.


 
Just turned on the avatar option. I guess CrimsonWhite hasn't checked in yet, huh?

I'm looking forward to seeing your new look!


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## DavidS

NOBama said:


> Just turned on the avatar option. I guess CrimsonWhite hasn't checked in yet, huh?
> 
> I'm looking forward to seeing your new look!




You've gotta wait until the 6 days are played out. The citibank bailout and Obama team press conference threw my whole thing off kilter. Tomorrow it'll be back. Just watch.


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## CrimsonWhite

DavidS has been found lacking in his predictions. Citibank bailout or not. By his terms, he loses. Anyone with suggestions for his new avatar may send them to me via PM and I will take them into consideration. 

Since he did ste a timeframe for keeping this avatar, I am declaring that he must keep it for at least 6 days.


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## DiveCon

hmm, this is interesting


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## Toro

I remember reading somewhere, perhaps it was the Trader's Almanac, that the day after Thanksgiving has historically been the strongest day of the year.


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## editec

AVG-JOE said:


> I think you hit the nail on the head Editec. It appears that inflation in certain areas, like real estate, is good for the wealthy class, so The Fed encourages that with cheap money. I wonder if there is any friggin' way to have an economy that is not manipulated towards the benefit of one class over another...
> 
> -Joe


 
Well you could start out with the presumption that the purpose of the FED is to foster growth that helps the nation instead of the just the market.

You could stop thinking that workers wage increases are a bad thing, but stock increases are always indications that the economy is in good shape.

You could start creating economic indicators that address how the working class is doing, and react to changes in those indicators, rather than creating economic indicators which only measure businsss indicators as significant.

But you have to ask yourself, how we can do that, when the people in charge of the economy are all bankers?

After all, not to fault them, but they ARE prejudiced into thinking that the only thing that matters is the health of the businesses in the nation.

They haven't given a rat's ass that the working class has been getting poorer for the last 40 years, for example.  Why should they?  It's not their jobs to care about the sheeple.

And the ONLY reason you hear anything about middle class relief,_ now_, is because the middle class is so damned broke that it cannot support that consumer driven economy the markets and our government's trade policies have created.

We are NOT going to get significantly different outcomes in our eeconomy as long as we allow the same damned class to control our society, folks.

Those people quite naturally approach every problem with their own classist biases. 

When was the last time you heard about the misery index?

It is a valid an economic indicator as any other, but the government doesn't care about it.

Why not?

Because, frankly, the government does not care about the misery on Main Street.

It cares ONLY about the misery on WAll Street.

As does the FED

As does the Treasury.

As do about half the people right here on this very board.

This is our classist human nature writ large into our macro-economic institutions, folks.


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## AVG-JOE

editec said:


> Well you could start out with the presumption that the purpose of the FED is to foster growth that helps the nation instead of the just the market.
> 
> You could stop thinking that workers wage increases are a bad thing, but stock increases are always indications that the economy is in good shape.
> 
> You could start creating economic indicators that address how the working class is doing, and react to changes in those indicators, rather than creating economic indicators which only measure businsss indicators as significant.
> 
> But you have to ask yourself, how we can do that, when the people in charge of the economy are all bankers?
> 
> After all, not to fault them, but they ARE prejudiced into thinking that the only thing that matters is the health of the businesses in the nation.
> 
> They haven't given a rat's ass that the working class has been getting poorer for the last 40 years, for example.  Why should they?  It's not their jobs to care about the sheeple.
> 
> And the ONLY reason you hear anything about middle class relief,_ now_, is because the middle class is so damned broke that it cannot support that consumer driven economy the markets and our government's trade policies have created.
> 
> We are NOT going to get significantly different outcomes in our eeconomy as long as we allow the same damned class to control our society, folks.
> 
> Those people quite naturally approach every problem with their own classist biases.
> 
> When was the last time you heard about the misery index?
> 
> It is a valid an economic indicator as any other, but the government doesn't care about it.
> 
> Why not?
> 
> *Because, frankly, the government does not care about the misery on Main Street.
> 
> It cares ONLY about the misery on WAll Street.
> 
> As does the FED
> 
> As does the Treasury.*
> 
> As do about half the people right here on this very board.
> 
> This is our classist human nature writ large into our macro-economic institutions, folks.



It is human nature to care more about the people who live on your own street than the folks on the other side of the tracks.  This should not surprise us.

What does surprise me is how easily people are educated to support ideas that are contrary to their own economic well being, for example, the value of unions.  The UAW, because of its evolution to the extreme, is a prime example of the true value of a union being to a specific group of workers at the expense of the majority.  Trickle down economics, practiced to the extreme and proven for the unfair policy that it is by the Bush administration is an example from the other side.

I hope that I live to see the day when 'fair' can be a term used to describe taxes and economic policy / incentives.

-Joe


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## Old Rocks

DavidS said:


> Friday - November 21 - Dow rallies 300+ points on people moving in to buy cheap stocks.
> 
> Monday - November 24 - Dow falls 200+ points on bad news
> Tuesday - November 25 - Dow up 100+ points
> Wednesday - November 26 - Quiet day, light trading
> Thursday - November 27 - CLOSED
> Friday - November 28 - FREEFALL - Speculation about horrible holiday season
> Monday - December 1 - Dow rallies on speculation of an auto bailout
> 
> By the time the automakers are back on Capitol Hill begging for money in their $10,000 suits, the dow will be around 7900.
> 
> By the time the year ends, we'll be around 6200.



Hmmm, nearly 8900 at the end of the day, Friday;

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=5d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined


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## DavidS

Wow. I really bombed here. I guess the whole Obama recession theory has been blown to bits. Since he's introduced his financial team, the market's been up 11%.


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## DiveCon

DavidS said:


> Wow. I really bombed here. I guess the whole Obama recession theory has been blown to bits. Since he's introduced his financial team, the market's been up 11%.


think his backing off on that promised tax increase had anything to do with it?


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## Toro

The market was extremely oversold.  And its the time of year when stocks do best.  It is not a surprise the market went higher.


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## DiveCon

Toro said:


> The market was extremely oversold.  And its the time of year when stocks do best.  It is not a surprise the market went higher.


well, also the marklet went way lower than i would have expected
i knew it was way over valued, but didnt expect it to drop below 8000
so the rise could be due to there being some real bargains


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## DavidS

DiveCon said:


> think his backing off on that promised tax increase had anything to do with it?



Uh, no. I think it has to do with the fed actually buying up bad assets, which was what the TARP was supposed to be two months ago.


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## Toro

DiveCon said:


> well, also the marklet went way lower than i would have expected
> i knew it was way over valued, but didnt expect it to drop below 8000
> so the rise could be due to there being some real bargains



I use $70 as my normalized earnings.  When the SP500 hit 730, it was trading at 10.4x earnings.  That's cheap.  Today, at 12.8x, its still cheap.

There will be more tough sledding next year though.


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## usmbtech

DavidS said:


> Wow. I really bombed here. I guess the whole Obama recession theory has been blown to bits. Since he's introduced his financial team, the market's been up 11%.




Wow, it was a crazy week.  What do you think is going to happen on Monday?  Is it time to lighten up a little bit if we get another up day or will this rally have legs?


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## Zoomie1980

DanK said:


> Wow, it was a crazy week.  What do you think is going to happen on Monday?  Is it time to lighten up a little bit if we get another up day or will this rally have legs?



Anyone day trading these days is an idiot.  Get a real job, invest a fix amount each month into a 401k made up of your preferred asset allocation mix, keep the mix balanced to your specifications and make good returns over the next 10 years.

There is no "get rich quick" scheme that works anywhere in any market.


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## NOBama

Zoomie1980 said:


> Anyone day trading these days is an idiot.


 
If ignorance is bliss, you have to be one happy SOB.


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## AVG-JOE

NOBama said:


> If ignorance is bliss, you have to be one happy SOB.



Seriously... I wish I had some spare cash right now... blue-light specials for long term, and incredible short-term trading opportunities abound all over the board.

-Joe


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## usmbtech

Let see some predictions for the next week!


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## DiveCon

DanK said:


> Let see some predictions for the next week!


have you seen his avatar )
he didnt do so well


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## Toro

DanK said:


> Let see some predictions for the next week!



I don't know about the week but I predict that the market will be up by the end of the year as the hedge funds gun stocks in an illiquid market in an attempt to survive.


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## DavidS

DanK said:


> Let see some predictions for the next week!



Hmmmm... I don't think this auto bill is going to pass. Additionally, we might get some economic data that won't be so pleasing. I say Dow 8220 by next Friday. Am I willing to be my avatar on it? Helllll no!


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## DiveCon

DavidS said:


> Hmmmm... I don't think this auto bill is going to pass. Additionally, we might get some economic data that won't be so pleasing. I say Dow 8220 by next Friday. Am I willing to be my avatar on it? Helllll no!


at least you learned from it
LOL


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## NOBama

The car bailout will pass. Maybe not today, but it will pass by the end of next week. All they have to resolve is ousting of GM's CEO and appoint a czar. (AL Gore, maybe?).

Once again the people will get screwed. Ironically, the people loaning this money to doomed companies aren't even on planet earth yet. So, do your civic duty and, 
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





, we need more tax payers to pay for these bailouts.


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