# Make your bet, when will stock market collapse?



## Siberian (Dec 30, 2021)

A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.

Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
While historic average is about 100%.

P/E index is also 30-70% higher than in mentioned periods.

Stock market grows only on QE, which is going to be finished by March.
As well the Fed is going to start hyking the interest rate and it will make giant debt unsustainable. Mass bankruptcies will start, it will be much, much worse than the Great Depression.

And the Fed cannot but to hyke the rate, because inflation has already started to accelerate, in a year it will become hyperinflation.

And much earlier, when inflation gets two digits, capital flow from the US (including stock market) will start.
 Making everything even worse...

 So, name the month of 2022 when US (and World) stock market is goint to collapse.

my choice - April


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## Manonthestreet (Dec 30, 2021)

Soon


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## rightwinger (Dec 30, 2021)

I don’t think we will see a significant downturn in the near future.

While we saw a 27 percent increase this year, I expect a more modest 8 percent next year.


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## lennypartiv (Dec 30, 2021)

Investors still have confidence in the Stock Market since Republicans control the Senate and the Supreme Court.  We still have checks and balances.


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## Meister (Dec 30, 2021)

I'm guessing a major correction toward the end of the first calendar quarter or early in the second quarter.


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## lennypartiv (Dec 30, 2021)

rightwinger said:


> I don’t think we will see a significant downturn in the near future.
> While we saw a 27 percent increase this year, I expect a more modest 8 percent next year.


If we have a collapse, it will be after the 2024 elections.

The GOP will win seats in the 2022 midterms.  The person who could really screw things up for the GOP is Mitch McConnell.  He could cost the GOP big time in the 2024 elections.  If Dems control the WH, the Senate, and the House in 2025, then we have an economic collapse.

---Trump calls McConnell a ‘disaster,’ says Republicans need new leadership---









						Trump calls McConnell a ‘disaster,’ says Republicans need new leadership
					

Former President Donald Trump called Sen. Mitch McConnell a “disaster” for allowing the $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal to pass, saying Republicans need a new leader.




					nypost.com


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## rightwinger (Dec 30, 2021)

lennypartiv said:


> If we have a collapse, it will be after the 2024 elections.
> 
> The GOP will win seats in the 2022 midterms.  The person who could really screw things up for the GOP is Mitch McConnell.  He could cost the GOP big time in the 2024 elections.  If Dems control the WH, the Senate, and the House in 2025, then we have an economic collapse.
> 
> ...



The Stock Market always does better while a Democrat is President. The market boomed under Clinton and Obama while it collapsed under Bush and Trump


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## White 6 (Dec 30, 2021)

Siberian said:


> a giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.
> 
> capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%,it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
> While historic average is about 100%.
> ...


12:42, tomorrow afternoon?


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## Meister (Dec 30, 2021)

rightwinger said:


> The Stock Market always does better while a Democrat is President. The market boomed under Clinton and Obama while it collapsed under Bush and Trump


The market was making consistent highs under Trump until the Pandemic closed the economy.   
RW, you are a funny guy.


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## rightwinger (Dec 30, 2021)

Meister said:


> The market was making consistent highs under Trump until the Pandemic closed the economy.
> RW, you are a funny guy.



The numbers don’t lie

Biden has a 27 percent increase just this year


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## Meister (Dec 30, 2021)

rightwinger said:


> The numbers don’t lie
> 
> Biden has a 27 percent increase just this year


You're in denial


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## Otis Mayfield (Dec 30, 2021)

Siberian said:


> A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.
> 
> Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
> While historic average is about 100%.
> ...




It's the dude from St Petersburg!

Did Putin put this topic in today's talking points?


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## rightwinger (Dec 30, 2021)

Meister said:


> You're in denial


The numbers don’t lie
We always do better under Democratic leadership


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## rightwinger (Dec 30, 2021)

Lets see……

I made big money in the Stock Market under
Clinton
Obama
Biden

I lost money under
Bush
Trump

Investors are more confident with a Democrat in the White House


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## San Souci (Dec 30, 2021)

Siberian said:


> A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.
> 
> Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
> While historic average is about 100%.
> ...


March. 5000 points.


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## Golfing Gator (Dec 30, 2021)

Meister said:


> The market was making consistent highs under Trump until the Pandemic closed the economy.
> RW, you are a funny guy.



It was actually pretty stagnant for more than a year.   For example between 1 Jan 2018 and 1 Jan 2019 the DJI was down 5.63%, the S&P was down 6.24, and the NASDAQ was down 3.6%.


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## Golfing Gator (Dec 30, 2021)

It will not collapse next year.  As one person pointed out we might have a correction but I am willing to bet it is not even a major one.  It will be less than 15%


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## elchorizo (Dec 30, 2021)

Siberian said:


> A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.
> 
> Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
> While historic average is about 100%.
> ...



Historical data doesn't mean anything right now because the Fed has never printed this much money before. Not even close. It's not just QE. It's how much they've given out to everyone.


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## JohnDB (Dec 30, 2021)

Siberian said:


> A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.
> 
> Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
> While historic average is about 100%.
> ...


And you would be an idiot.  

There's going to be a correction in January...after that it's unclear and depends on what happens.  (Which can be anything...too many things in motion to accurately predict anything) 

Currently the inflation vs resignation is in play for the American economy... especially the supply chain interruptions are essentially playing a major role as well.  

As you live in Siberia you don't notice these things as nobody trades with Russia to begin with.  You are used to not having any money or anything to buy money with except for vodka and prostitutes.


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## Colin norris (Dec 30, 2021)

Siberian said:


> A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.
> 
> Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
> While historic average is about 100%.
> ...



And if course you will all rejoice and blame Biden totally. 
I can remember when it crashed under GWB and you said nothing or blamed him for it. How coincidental and hypocritical.


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## Siberian (Dec 30, 2021)

JohnDB said:


> And you would be an idiot.
> 
> There's going to be a correction in January...after that it's unclear and depends on what happens.  (Which can be anything...too many things in motion to accurately predict anything)
> 
> ...



exactly such idiots like you make me enjoy watching  colapse of the US so much  

when collapse starts to develop I will come back to this topic to share my joy with you


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## Siberian (Dec 30, 2021)

Colin norris said:


> And if course you will all rejoice and blame Biden totally.
> I can remember when it crashed under GWB and you said nothing or blamed him for it. How coincidental and hypocritical.



not at all, all US presidents starting from Reagan contributed to your stock exchange bubble
or, to be precise - since Golden standard elimination...


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## Meister (Dec 30, 2021)

Golfing Gator said:


> It was actually pretty stagnant for more than a year.   For example between 1 Jan 2018 and 1 Jan 2019 the DJI was down 5.63%, the S&P was down 6.24, and the NASDAQ was down 3.6%.


That's not a fair take because there WAS a correction in that year.  From the day that Trump won the election to the day that the economy shut down, it went from 
19,000+ to 28,000+.  If you want to witness the market starting to stagnate, look at the year between Jan of 2015 to Oct 2016 when it went from 17,800+ to 17,900+.
That included a double dip, to me showing that the EO's of Obama were kicking in.  The perception changed when Trump won the 2016 election.


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## Golfing Gator (Dec 30, 2021)

Meister said:


> That's not a fair take because there WAS a correction in that year. From the day that Trump won the election to the day that the economy shut down, it went from
> 19,000+ to 28,000+



Fair or not, it is a reality, and the stagnation lasted more than just the year.  

And of the 9000 gain you mention, more than half of it came in the first year.  Things slowed down after that.


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## Meister (Dec 30, 2021)

Golfing Gator said:


> Fair or not, it is a reality, and the stagnation lasted more than just the year.
> 
> And of the 9000 gain you mention, more than half of it came in the first year.  Things slowed down after that.


Actually, a raging market is not too good IMO.  The fed banks feel the need to start directing the traffic.


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## edthecynic (Dec 30, 2021)

When a Republican't gets elected president, as always happens when they do get elected.


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## JohnDB (Dec 30, 2021)

Meister said:


> Actually, a raging market is not too good IMO.  The fed banks feel the need to start directing the traffic.


The recent massive bear Market days tell the truth though...this volatility is indicative of the massive amount of borrowed money in the market...and what happens when it eventually comes out.  

And it's coming out. 

None of these companies are worth the capitalization they currently have.  Many solid companies are currently under capitalized...they have solid growth and earnings and even dividends...but they grow slower...so they got forgotten in the rush to tech stocks that are struggling to produce enough chips to make profits.  
A 300 P/E ratio is nuts stuff.  (NVIDIA)
But Micron has an 8?  
Energy Transfer has a 4 with a 7% dividend.  (9% if you hold and DRIP) 

So guess what is going to happen soon?


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## Siberian (Dec 31, 2021)

another aspect which makes collapse inevitable

with inflation at 6,8% you cannot attract capital to finance the debt with interest rate close to zero. or even 3% or even 5%

it means now private capital will abstain from refinancing all kinds of debt

now only QE, emission of money can refinance not only government, but also private debt

the Fed needs to increase QE by many times to prevent debt collapse, not to reduce QE...

but it will accelerate inflation even more

so, it is a dead end, the Fed declares intention to stop QE and hyke the rate, but it cannot and will not do so, because it means immediate (in a month or two) collapse of everything.

The Fed just hopes to live another couple of months, it is game of words, it gets extra time until everybody realizes that hyperinflation is inevitable and rushes to gold, starting the avalanche if collapse of markets and Dollar..

in Russian fairy tales there's a personage - "A worrior at the crossroads" (paining by famous artist Vasnetsov) , and writing on the stone says - You go to the left - will lose your horse, to the right - you will lose your freedom, forward - you will lose your life.

For the Fed (and the US) all 3 directions lead to collapse, but in different ways and time.


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## citygator (Dec 31, 2021)

If trends hold court the next economic downturn will occur under the next republicans president… again.


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## Deplorable Yankee (Dec 31, 2021)

Siberian said:


> A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.
> 
> Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
> While historic average is about 100%.
> ...


Most who are awake know an economic shitshow n a half is coming....


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## expat_panama (Dec 31, 2021)

Seriously folks, Business affects the government as much as the government affects business.  Right now equity price trends are positive and that's a reality that grownups deal with.   Another reality is that things change.

Beyond that, how many of the current "bets" on this thread are backed up by actual market transactions?


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## justoffal (Jan 2, 2022)

Meister said:


> I'm guessing a major correction toward the end of the first calendar quarter or early in the second quarter.


When QE becomes the foundation for growth how can collapse not be inevitable? It's the old J Wellington Wimpy adage about paying for his hamburger next Tuesday.....
Tuesday never comes..


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## Golfing Gator (Jan 2, 2022)

Tomorrow is opening on the right note


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## justoffal (Jan 2, 2022)

Golfing Gator said:


> Tomorrow is opening on the right note
> 
> View attachment 582916


Maybe...maybe not....how much of that green is just overblown fiat? This market is built on clay legs.


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## Golfing Gator (Jan 2, 2022)

justoffal said:


> Maybe...maybe not....how much of that green is just overblown fiat? This market is built on clay legs.



whatever you say little buddy.  Take all your money and put it under your mattress, it will be safest that way


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## justoffal (Jan 2, 2022)

Golfing Gator said:


> whatever you say little buddy.  Take all your money and put it under your mattress, it will be safest that way


Point made....
Looking at Bitcoin these days but I'm very suspicious of it.

Jo


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## Golfing Gator (Jan 2, 2022)

justoffal said:


> Point made....
> Looking at Bitcoin these days but I'm very suspicious of it.
> 
> Jo



you missed that boat.


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## justoffal (Jan 2, 2022)

Golfing Gator said:


> you missed that boat.


Probably


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## Golfing Gator (Jan 2, 2022)

justoffal said:


> Probably



There are some other up and coming cyrptos you could look into


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## justoffal (Jan 2, 2022)

Golfing Gator said:


> There are some other up and coming cyrptos you could look into


Scares the shit out of me actually


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## JohnDB (Jan 2, 2022)

Actually there are great ETFs for shorting the market...
As well as Bull market ETFs.  

I really don't care which direction it moves so long as it does move.  I can make money.  

Look at NUGT vs DUST.  Both play either direction on gold and gold miners.  

KOLD and BOIL plays natural gas in either direction.  

There are tons of these...I can play them all day long.  So long as the market is moving I'm making money.  But play wisely.  Lots of people have lost trillions out of their retirement portfolio and given it to me by being stupid this past year.  Or they have played options and didn't set up known configurations for profits...instead they shot craps and lost.  Known a bunch of those guys.


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## JohnDB (Jan 2, 2022)

Golfing Gator said:


> There are some other up and coming cyrptos you could look into


Cryptocurrency doesn't retain it's value in a declining market...just the opposite trend has been noticed lately with the spikes and tanks of the market.  Gold held better.  

In fact most crypto currencies fell like rocks going from 60,000-40,000 overnight.  

Just saying...they will get you an IRS audit.  They are not legal tender.  And Coinbase is having some financial issues lately...just saying.


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## Flopper (Jan 2, 2022)

Siberian said:


> A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.
> 
> Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
> While historic average is about 100%.
> ...


Someone once said, market crashes come from specific events such as, war, disease, natural disaster, death of a leader, disclosure of very bad financial news, etc.  Financial fundamentals determine whether the crash is followed by a rapid recovery or not.


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Golfing Gator said:


> whatever you say little buddy.  Take all your money and put it under your mattress, it will be safest that way


gold, only gold can protect you

now is the time not to make profit, risk is overwhelming , but it's time to save the capital

when all people rush to thenarrow door most capitals will evaporate. 
you will not be able to sell your equities when panic avalanche starts and when dust settles you will be poor as a mice. 
your virtual wealth is not real


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Flopper said:


> Someone once said, market crashes come from specific events such as, war, disease, natural disaster, death of a leader, disclosure of very bad financial news, etc.  Financial fundamentals determine whether the crash is followed by a rapid recovery or not.


now when algorythms define moves of the market crashes may become a result of manipulation or a mistake as easily as by black swans.

but now, this year situation is fundamentally different than a year ago.

with inflation of 6,8% stock msrket is the only place where an investot may get profit, at all, only virtual economy based on QE makes profit.

needless to say it is an artificial and not sustainable sutuation.

so, now you need the market to grow not less than ~7-8% a year just to stay with zero profit.

you don't even need a crash to go deep into losing money mode.

if the QE is finished, as the Fed promises, people start losing money as soon as the market starts to stagnate.

you don't need black swans, you just need several % of investors not to be as dumb as a log and start selling their stocks.

a relatively long period of stagnation or minor decline may start an avalanche of selling.
2 months, I presume. in spring. this is how it will be.

even if Putin doesn't surprise you with his response to US missiles and bases moving right to the Russian borders, and he has set the date for the US to respond to his ultimatum, mid January...

so, I expect a major crash not later than April, and then the Fed will resume QE, and in much bigger scale than before, tens of trillions, then - hyperinflation and the end of the World as we know it...


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## Slade3200 (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.
> 
> Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
> While historic average is about 100%.
> ...


Why do you think mass bankruptcies are coming? There is more currency circulating than ever before and investments are skyrocketing… the economy is opening up and GDP is growing… unemployment is shrinking back to all time lows.

yes the fed will raise interest rates to curb inflation. This will reduce lending and investment but won’t create a recession/m or depression. To do that you need ultra high unemployment or something to cause mass bankruptcies. I’m not seeing that on the horizon. So what about this economy makes you think we are on the verge of collapse?


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Slade3200 said:


> Why do you think mass bankruptcies are coming? There is more currency circulating than ever before and investments are skyrocketing… the economy is opening up and GDP is growing… unemployment is shrinking back to all time lows.
> 
> yes the fed will raise interest rates to curb inflation. This will reduce lending and investment but won’t create a recession/m or depression. To do that you need ultra high unemployment or something to cause mass bankruptcies. I’m not seeing that on the horizon. So what about this economy makes you think we are on the verge of collapse?



unemployment now is a problem from another direction.

having spent a year on extra covid subsidies, many Americans loved to get free money without working.
so, unemployment is low, about 5%(?), while vacant jobs are about 10%. US lacks labour, it presses down production, creates deficite of goods.
more and more Americans fall out of labor force, they stop working relying on subsidies.

And if you deprive them of subsidies BLM riots will look like kindergarden... Domestic situation in the US is already awful, the country is on the brink of civil war, Trump will win next mid and presidential elections, with Democrats most probably trying to remove him via the Ukrainian - like coup, CIA has mastered technology of colored revolutions...
So, situation in the US is explosive, especially will be in 2023 and 2024.

this is about unemployment.

as for the rest of causes.
as I said, lack of labour affects local US production, import from China etc. grows.

And the problem is that liquidity is abundant only in the US, EU, Japan, UK and several other privileged Western minors like Sweden etc. - those who can QE.

The rest of the World can't and global inflation destroys them absolutely. I expect defaults of countries to start this year, Turkey, Egypt, Etc., with consequent hyperinflation and collaose of economy. 
And they are producers and exporters to the US, i. e. deficite of goods Worldwide will grow, inflation in the US will keep growing, I expectcit it to become 2 digits by or in spring.

It means that the whole economy will sink deeper into unprofitability and you will need more growth in stock market to stay at least with zero losses...
More QE is needed even without any stock market collapse, while the Fed stops it by March....

As for the rate hyke. in 2008 the West was overdebted. By 2022 the World is overdebted, this period of 2008-2022 was quiet only because the West was sucking solvency out of the rest of the World.
Everybody was given a cheap credit, now there is nobody without debt in the World.

And now either you stretch your Western QEs to the rest of the World or debt will start to collapse in countries with small curencies, where central banks cannot print money without accelerating inflation immediately.

so, the rate hyke.
It will kill the unsolvent debtors, and in the US half of economy is unsolvent if the rate is higher than 5%. This is the reason why the Fed moved the rate to 0,25%, why ECB, UK, Japan moved their rates to zero - THE WESTERN ECONOMY AS A WHOLE IS UNSOLVENT, A BUNKRUPT LIVING ON LIFE SUPPORT OF PERMANENT QE AND ZERO INTEREST RATE.

and you are talking about some growth...
if you inject several trillions via government budget yearly, give credit to everybody with zero rate it may look like this government-financed expansion is growth but it is not.


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

speaking short - absence of QE will inevitably lead to collapse of the stock market.

rate hyke will kill all debtors and the whole US economy.
so, it is just empty talk of the Fed, a game to make you think that inflation is stoppable, while it is not.

after the first crash of the stock market in spring the Fed will resume QE in much bigger scale, will forget about hyking the rate.

inflation will accelerate, leading to civil unrest and political hyrricane by elections in 2024.

I expect the US not to survive it.
Economic problems usually lead to situation when every new leader gets extremely unpopular very soon after his election.

Look at Ukraine or Georgia (a country, not US state) , they make coups every several years, presidents are first loved and then overthrown. This is a fate of a failed state, and the US is a failed state too, just with temporary advantage of having a World reserve currency, which is now crumbling due to accelerating inflation.

So, I expect Trump (or a republican) to be elected in 2025, but he will not stop fast economic decline and will get extremely unpopular within his first year.

Maximum in 2025 I expect a Democratic coup.
Maybe even immediayely after elections. The losing side will not recognize elections results. Republicans will not too, if Democrats with voting by mail get 105% of votes in their favor... 

You may have noticed I am not very optomistic about the future of the US..


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## Slade3200 (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> unemployment now is a problem from another direction.
> 
> having spent a year on extra covid subsidies, many Americans loved to get free money without working.
> so, unemployment is low, about 5%(?), while vacant jobs are about 10%. US lacks labour, it presses down production, creates deficite of goods.
> ...


I think you are waaaaay off base here. The labor shortage stings now as it is causing supply chain issues and operational problems however the end result is going to be higher wages and people moving to better jobs. We have the opportunity to fill those better positions helping American workers and we have the opportunity to grow our economy by filling in the other positions with immigrants. A growing and expanding economy is what it’s all about. We are flush with cash right now. Most the stimulus is trickling up to the top so the top earners and corporations will be seeing record profits. That money will be invested so housing and the stock market are going to be fine.

If you want to get paranoid then you should be freaking out about the wealth gap and automation. It is going to force us into a state of socialism whether you like it or not. It will either be run by the government or by the corporations, but in the end we are going to have a massive amount of people unemployed and only a small few control production and distribution of goods.


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Slade3200 said:


> I think you are waaaaay off base here. The labor shortage stings now as it is causing supply chain issues and operational problems however the end result is going to be higher wages and people moving to better jobs. We have the opportunity to fill those better positions helping American workers and we have the opportunity to grow our economy by filling in the other positions with immigrants. A growing and expanding economy is what it’s all about. We are flush with cash right now. Most the stimulus is trickling up to the top so the top earners and corporations will be seeing record profits. That money will be invested so housing and the stock market are going to be fine.
> 
> If you want to get paranoid then you should be freaking out about the wealth gap and automation. It is going to force us into a state of socialism whether you like it or not. It will either be run by the government or by the corporations, but in the end we are going to have a massive amount of people unemployed and only a small few control production and distribution of goods.


you seem not to understand interconnection between higher salaries and "being awash with cash" with inflation, while it is exactly the case. 
all money printing since 2008 did not solve the problem, since every new 1 dollar of credit was creating less and less profit, and much less than this initial 1 dollar. 
it nothing but made disproportions bigger. 
to create 1 dollar of own production you had to print and spend 3 dollars, 2 of which were going to China and only 1 to yourself. 
though, it's just a note, what I say referring to higher salaries  is that if not followed with proper growth of productivity (and it is not) it accelerates inflation. 

it is only one component of inflation, of course, but an important one. 

And prior to elections Democrsts have to increase subsidies, i. e. inflation... or they will lose power for sure, and many of top Democrats may go to prison... i. e. subsidies will grow, inflation is going to grow too


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## Slade3200 (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> you seem not to understand interconnection between higher salaries and "being awash with cash" with inflation, while it is exactly the case.
> all money printing since 2008 did not solve the problem, since every new 1 dollar of credit was creating less and less profit, and much less than this initial 1 dollar.
> it nothing but made disproportions bigger.
> to create 1 dollar of own production you had to print and spend 3 dollars, 2 of which were going to China and only 1 to yourself.
> ...


Since 2008-09 our economy has grown consistently and we’ve seen in recent years record numbers and maintained on of the strongest economies in the world. Inflation will be curbed by raising interest rates and fixing supply chain issues. The world economy is still in the process of reopening. The only adjustment we will see is a plateau after the rapid growth of reopening plains off. There is no bubble to burst right now. The wealth gap and automation are the real factors you should be focusing on if you want to be paranoid


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Slade3200 said:


> Since 2008-09 our economy has grown consistently and we’ve seen in recent years record numbers and maintained on of the strongest economies in the world. Inflation will be curbed by raising interest rates and fixing supply chain issues. The world economy is still in the process of reopening. The only adjustment we will see is a plateau after the rapid growth of reopening plains off. There is no bubble to burst right now. The wealth gap and automation are the real factors you should be focusing on if you want to be paranoid


inflation cannot be curbed by raising interest rates, because US economy is overdebted. 
like, if you have debt of 100 dollars and pay 10% your payment is 10 dollars a year. 
if your debt is 1000 dollars and the rate is 1% you pay the same 10 dollars a year. 

this was the reason of the Fed to artificially decreasing the interest rate, to prevent bankruptcy of US econony, increasing the debt US business pays the same money as it did before. 
I met the figure of 4% as the level of death for the US econony. while inflation is 6,8% in November. In December I expect even bigger figure. So, to curb inflation the Fed must raise the interest rate to 8-910% at least. It means instant death of the US economy. 
Even 3% will not stop inflation, and the Fed does not even dream of such level, it is believed to make 3 hykes by 0,25% in 2022.
It is laughable, inflation will not stop. No way, at all. 

then, if you print 1 trln dollars and buy something it creates first demand, then production. But is is not natural demand and the whole"growth" of the US since 2008 is artificial and fake. 
Because this demand is not earned, it is based on QE, and QE creates inflation, just its coming is postponed because Dollar is a global trade and reserve currency. 
Besides, we have overproduction (deflationary) crisis, which leads to declining prices. So QE, money printing and inflation was just balancing deflation, keeping it at zero. 
deflation caused by overproduction + inflation caused by QE = ~zero CPI
And it took 12 years and common efforts of most Western banks to start global inflation which we are seeing now.


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## Otis Mayfield (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> inflation cannot be curbed by raising interest rates, because US economy is overdebted.
> like, if you have debt of 100 dollars and pay 10% your payment is 10 dollars a year.
> if your debt is 1000 dollars and the rate is 1% you pay the same 10 dollars a year.
> 
> ...










How is the stock market over in Rusia doing? The weather turning cold in St Petersburg?


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Otis Mayfield said:


> How is the stock market over in Rusia doing? The weather turning cold in St Petersburg?




what is your picture of US inflation in stock market supposed to mean? 

do you want to demonstrate how much it is going to fall?
from 4300 to 700


----------



## Flopper (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> now when algorythms define moves of the market crashes may become a result of manipulation or a mistake as easily as by black swans.
> 
> but now, this year situation is fundamentally different than a year ago.
> 
> ...


I have been in the market now for 57 years through 10 recessions.  I have seen the markets fall more than 20% in one day, and have heard dozens of market gurus predicting crashes, recessions, depressions, and the end of life as we know it.  Yet, I am still in the market and plan to remain so.   If you have a well balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, cash, and hard assets, there is no need for concern if you are a long term investor.  Currently, I am 43% stocks, 24% bonds, 20% real estate, and the remainder in cash and precious metals. I only shift to a higher percentage of stocks when the PE ratio falls below 20.  This balanced approach to investing has served me well over the years and I have never had a sleepless night worrying about investments.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Flopper said:


> I have been in the market now for 57 years through 10 recessions.  I have seen the markets fall more than 20% in one day, and have heard dozens of market gurus predicting crashes, recessions, depressions, and the end of life as we know it.  Yet, I am still in the market and plan to remain so.   If you have a well balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, cash, and hard assets, there is no need for concern if you are a long term investor.  Currently, I am 43% stocks, 24% bonds, 20% real estate, and the remainder in cash and precious metals. I only shift to a higher percentage of stocks when the PE ratio falls below 20.  This balanced approach to investing has served me well over the years and I have never had a sleepless night worrying about investments.


well, such record certainly deserves respect, but life of a man is too short to totally rely on own experience. 

How many hyperinflations did you personally experience in your personal business career? 

I did one. 

And in this case my experience, though not in exactly stock market, but in economy, is more profound.


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

p. s. And last 50 years (since elimination of the golden standard) can be considered as one type of experience - the growing bubble. 
all your experience is within one economic cycle, while now we are antering a breaking point between cycles. Like the one of 1929, but this one is much, much bigger and will be accompanied with hyperinflation, which the US has never experienced. 
so, more caution and new approach is required, different from previous 5 decades..


----------



## Slade3200 (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> inflation cannot be curbed by raising interest rates, because US economy is overdebted.
> like, if you have debt of 100 dollars and pay 10% your payment is 10 dollars a year.
> if your debt is 1000 dollars and the rate is 1% you pay the same 10 dollars a year.
> 
> ...


You are going to be disappointed which is a good thing as the impending doom you think is coming will not happen. Interest rates are raised and lowered to influence borrowing and investment and manage the value of our currency. At times of economic hardship and high unemployment rates are lowered. At times of high inflation they are raised.


----------



## Flopper (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> well, such record certainly deserves respect, but life of a man is too short to totally rely on own experience.
> 
> How many hyperinflations did you personally experience in your personal business career?
> 
> ...


There has been only one period of hyperinflation since the 1930s and that would be in the late 70s and 80s.  At that time I shifted my portfolio heavily into bonds.   I was able to purchase AA and AAA bonds with very high yields. A got a number of 10 yr corporate issue fixed yield 12.5% to 16% bonds, school district municipal bonds 10 yr and 20yr fixed yield 10% to 13%.  If we went into hyperinflation, I would be looking for high yield AA and AAA bonds.


----------



## Golfing Gator (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> do you want to demonstrate how much it is going to fall?
> from 4300 to 700



what are you willing to wager on that?


----------



## DudleySmith (Jan 3, 2022)

Flopper said:


> There has been only one period of hyperinflation since the 1930s and that would be in the late 70s and 80s.  At that time I shifted my portfolio heavily into bonds.   I was able to purchase AA and AAA bonds with very high yields. A got a number of 10 yr corporate issue fixed yield 12.5% to 16% bonds, school district municipal bonds 10 yr and 20yr fixed yield 10% to 13%.  If we went into hyperinflation, I would be looking for high yield AA and AAA bonds.



Except they are deliberately keeping interest rates low, since there are so many foreign buyers who will buy them at zero interest rates around the world; this is also a necessity when they are trying to float $3.5 trillion dollar Federal budgets.


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Slade3200 said:


> You are going to be disappointed which is a good thing as the impending doom you think is coming will not happen. Interest rates are raised and lowered to influence borrowing and investment and manage the value of our currency. At times of economic hardship and high unemployment rates are lowered. At times of high inflation they are raised.


it is only a minor part of what interest rate defines or influences.

in your situation of giant overdentedness the most important effect of the interest rate is, as you said, but without proper elaboration - to influence borrowing.

there is certain limit, a % of income/profit that a borrower can spend on debt and interest payments.
as I descrived above, you may pay the same sum having 10 times bigger debt if the interest rate is 10 times smaller.

exactly this way Central bank can reduce or promote business activity - via regulation of amount of money one has at his disposal after he pays debt and interest. - what you mention.

but when your debt is giant the issue is not about extra investment, bit about survival.

for example, let us see how much insolvent the United States of Ametica is.


for the year 2021

receipts 3,581 trillion
outlays - 7,249 trillion
deficite - 3,669 trillion

Deficite is bigger than receipts, obviously the US is an absolute bankrupt in principle, if it loses ability to finance this deficite.

The US lost its ability to finance its deficite borrowing in the market, the Fed has to print money and to borrow it to the Treasury.

This can go on only until Dollar is the World trade and reserve currency and you can trow off this excess of dollars to the rest of the World, otherwise these, dollars would have created hyperinflation already, like in Zimbabwe or Venezuela.

And since China becomes the biggest World economy in 2027, since it introduced digital Yuan in 2021 - within next several years the US Dollar will lose its World currency ststus. The US will lose ability to finance all kinds of debt just printing money...

though, it's sidestepping..
Now, In November 2021, the public debt of the United States was around 28,91 trillion US dollars.

I don't want to spend timd to find out exact composition of US public debt by terms, let us consider it to be all 7 years Treasury notes, the yild is around 1,5%.

So, if the interest rate grows by just 1 per cent, it adds 28,91 :100 x 1 = 290 billion dollars a year of extra outlays.

to curb inflation the Fed has to raise the interest rate to at least 8% ( now, next month inflation will be higher, by March it will be not less than 10%).
Let us consider the hyke to reach 11,5% (so, US government to pay extra 10% on debt) .

If the Fed is serious about curbing inflation the US government will have to spend about 2,9 trillion dollars more to pay just the interest rate!!!!

to remind,

receipts 3,581 trillion
outlays - 7,249 trillion (+2,9 trln)
deficite - 3,669 trillion (+2,9 = 6,57 trln)

deficite will be 184 % of US receipts.

The US is as a bankrupt as Zimbabwe. Fundamentally and indisputably. If the US hykes the rate the Fed has to print another 2,9 trln dollars accelerating inflation despite it hyked the rate just to finance the budget deficite. And most US economy will go bankrupt.

If it doesn't hyke the rate inflation will keep accelerating...

And all American business and households have the same situation.

Do you understand now to what an abyss the US economy is heading?


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## Otis Mayfield (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> it is only a minor part of what interest rate defines or influences.
> 
> in your situation of giant overdentedness the most important effect of the interest rate is, as you said, but without proper elaboration - to influence borrowing.
> 
> ...









All I see is up.

How is the weather in St Petersburg? Putin treating his employee okay?


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Flopper said:


> There has been only one period of hyperinflation since the 1930s and that would be in the late 70s and 80s.  At that time I shifted my portfolio heavily into bonds.   I was able to purchase AA and AAA bonds with very high yields. A got a number of 10 yr corporate issue fixed yield 12.5% to 16% bonds, school district municipal bonds 10 yr and 20yr fixed yield 10% to 13%.  If we went into hyperinflation, I would be looking for high yield AA and AAA bonds.


with all respect it was not hyperinflation 
hyperinflation is when prices double every 3 months, or in smaller period...
take 100% a year at least...
during hyperinflation bonds will be just pieces of paper.


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## Flopper (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> p. s. And last 50 years (since elimination of the golden standard) can be considered as one type of experience - the growing bubble.
> all your experience is within one economic cycle, while now we are antering a breaking point between cycles. Like the one of 1929, but this one is much, much bigger and will be accompanied with hyperinflation, which the US has never experienced.
> so, more caution and new approach is required, different from previous 5 decades..


The problem with jumping out of the market is knowing when to jump back in.   If you are right, some event will touch off a market fall in which it might fall 10 or 15 or maybe even 20 thousand points within days followed by market recoveries and falls.  At some point when the news is at it's very worst, market gurus are advising to put everything in gold which has gone through the roof, and soothsayers are predicting the end of everything, there will be a market recovery and the market will rise rapidly while fundamentals are terrible and by the time fundamentals are looking good the market will have recovered most of it's loses and in a few years the market is back where it was.  This is a pattern that been going on since stocks were traded on a street corner on Wall Street.  

IMHO, we are well are overdue for a major correction.   That does not mean we dump all our stocks and wait for a good place to jump in again.  The current uptrend could well continue for another 10,000 points before the market comes tumbling down.  Simply reducing exposure to stocks and moving into more defensive stocks is IMHO the best route if you have not already done it.


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## Slade3200 (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> it is only a minor part of what interest rate defines or influences.
> 
> in your situation of giant overdentedness the most important effect of the interest rate is, as you said, but without proper elaboration - to influence borrowing.
> 
> ...


Interesting, so China is about to take over as the worlds currency which must mean they are more effectively running their economy. I’m curious. Do you know what Chinas debt to income ratio is? How does it compare to ours? Thoughts?


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## Flopper (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> with all respect it was not hyperinflation
> hyperinflation is when prices double every 3 months, or in smaller period...
> take 100% a year at least...
> during hyperinflation bonds will be just pieces of paper.


That depends on the bonds and the hyperinflation.  You do realize that you are talking about a collapse of the world economic system and with it the collapse of many nations, the US being one of them.  I suggest you allocate some of your funds to a bomb shelter well stocked with food, water, and firearms.   For me, I'll stick with my current allocations and check back with you in a few years.


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Slade3200 said:


> Interesting, so China is about to take over as the worlds currency which must mean they are more effectively running their economy. I’m curious. Do you know what Chinas debt to income ratio is? How does it compare to ours? Thoughts?


China's debt is awful, as well as money printing.

the difference is China is still the World factory and the US is not.

and China can tolerare hardships more, Xi will just shoot a couple of millions and China will keep being stable and working.
While the US is heading to civilwar even without economic collapse


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Flopper said:


> The problem with jumping out of the market is knowing when to jump back in.   If you are right, some event will touch off a market fall in which it might fall 10 or 15 or maybe even 20 thousand points within days followed by market recoveries and falls.  At some point when the news is at it's very worst, market gurus are advising to put everything in gold which has gone through the roof, and soothsayers are predicting the end of everything, there will be a market recovery and the market will rise rapidly while fundamentals are terrible and by the time fundamentals are looking good the market will have recovered most of it's loses and in a few years the market is back where it was.  This is a pattern that been going on since stocks were traded on a street corner on Wall Street.
> 
> IMHO, we are well are overdue for a major correction.   That does not mean we dump all our stocks and wait for a good place to jump in again.  The current uptrend could well continue for another 10,000 points before the market comes tumbling down.  Simply reducing exposure to stocks and moving into more defensive stocks is IMHO the best route if you have not already done it.


you are still thinking within your current paradygm, not paying attention to what hyperinflation is.

after the crash of course stocks will bounce back.
they will start growing and will double, triple and quadruple its cost within a year, as hyperinflation develops.
And then many companies will just disappear.
Do you understand what hyperinflation is?
When you cannot fulfill contracts, when prices on your 1000 components you use, coming from 100 countries grow with different speed.
When your plant stops because 10 Turkish of 1000 component don't come bacause Turkey plant went bankrupt.

Generally, hyperinflation stops trade and destroys cooperation, including industrial chains... chais of supply - recent logistics problems are nothing compared to what is to happen.

stocks will first grow along with hyperinflation, but will be of smaller real value.
And then many, many companies will go bankrupt.

Do you know why I know it? Because I saw it myself, you did not. And keep thinking in old paradygm.


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Flopper said:


> That depends on the bonds and the hyperinflation.  You do realize that you are talking about a collapse of the world economic system and with it the collapse of many nations, the US being one of them.  I suggest you allocate some of your funds to a bomb shelter well stocked with food, water, and firearms.   For me, I'll stick with my current allocations and check back with you in a few years.


yes, I understand the scale of collapse, shit happens. Great empires fall, civilizations disappear...


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## Slade3200 (Jan 3, 2022)

Siberian said:


> China's debt is awful, as well as money printing.
> 
> the difference is China is still the World factory and the US is not.
> 
> ...


What does being the world factory have to do with the economics we are talking about? The US GDP is still 30% more than Chinas and China has a far worse debt ratio and track record of honestly managing their currency. That doesn’t add up to them taking the dollars spot. And this all certainly isnt going to lead to a bubble burst in the next year or two


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## Siberian (Jan 3, 2022)

Slade3200 said:


> What does being the world factory have to do with the economics we are talking about? The US GDP is still 30% more than Chinas


being the World factory means that you can accept only own currency, and not Dollars.
your share in the World trade can be easily transferred into your share in world currency used for trade.

Chinese GDP measured in purshasing power parity is already bigger than American one.

and US GDP is mostly virtual. What is share of services in US GDP, 70%?

anyway, manufacturing counts for 10% only.

in China - 30%

It means China produces 2 times more goods than the US (even if we take  nominal Chinese GDP, which is 3/4 of American one).

actually, China poduces 4-5-6 times more goods than the US because Chinese goods are cheaper, more countries buy them...

while after the WWII the US accounted for more than half of the World GDP and was the World factory.

these times are gone.  China even now excedes the US, in several years it will bury dollar as the World trade currency.


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## yidnar (Jan 4, 2022)

White 6 said:


> 12:42, tomorrow afternoon?


did Pelosi relay that info to you ?


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## Abatis (Jan 5, 2022)

Personally I think the currency shufflers in the markets will continue to keep the plates spinning, the "end" will come in trade, we will see the dollar be rejected in international settlement.

Years ago when gold was at or below cost of production, China bought mines all over the globe.  They also bought tankers and retrofitted them to carry ore . . .   They bring the ore home and refine it.

Also, China began the Shanghai Gold Exchange which is a market based on daily settlement of physical gold, not a futures market like New York and London.  the gold banks play all kinds of games pushing price down by dumping paper gold into the market; they have dumped contacts worth the annual mine output in paper to drive price down.

Already arbitrage exists between the China physical and west's paper markets and once that price point accelerates and widens, the suck of physical gold out of the west to the east will happen very fast (there really isn't much left).

All these moves have worked to allow China to amass incredible stores of gold, vastly more (I'm thinking 20X -30X) than they have declared to date.  China can destroy the NY and London exchanges any time they want; when they have transferred the west's gold, they will announce their stockpile (with much publicity and fanfare) and simultaneously, China will announce a gold-backed yuan just for trade.

Instead of dollars leaving the USA, trillions of dollars will flow back as they are dumped globally as nobody will accept them in global commerce settlement.

It could be fun hough, if it happens in winter we will be able to burn those dollars for heat.


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## Siberian (Jan 8, 2022)

Flopper said:


> The problem with jumping out of the market is knowing when to jump back in.   If you are right, some event will touch off a market fall in which it might fall 10 or 15 or maybe even 20 thousand points within days followed by market recoveries and falls.  At some point when the news is at it's very worst, market gurus are advising to put everything in gold which has gone through the roof, and soothsayers are predicting the end of everything, there will be a market recovery and the market will rise rapidly while fundamentals are terrible and by the time fundamentals are looking good the market will have recovered most of it's loses and in a few years the market is back where it was.  This is a pattern that been going on since stocks were traded on a street corner on Wall Street.
> 
> IMHO, we are well are overdue for a major correction.   That does not mean we dump all our stocks and wait for a good place to jump in again.  The current uptrend could well continue for another 10,000 points before the market comes tumbling down.  Simply reducing exposure to stocks and moving into more defensive stocks is IMHO the best route if you have not already done it.


just don't look up


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## a1623yankee (Jan 9, 2022)

Siberian said:


> A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.
> 
> Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
> While historic average is about 100%.
> ...


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## a1623yankee (Jan 9, 2022)

The market will not collapse in any usual traditional fashion. It may show cracks and severe dooming strain in April through December 2022 but small shutdowns will force perspective checks by stockholders and buyers that will shift the market to a near zero stalemate...for the time being. Then, those shutdowns will suddenly spread exponentially and the Fed will be forced to their traditional temporary props. They won't work. Any residual faith in the Fed will finally, irrevocably vanish and the entire CORPORATE CAPITALIST system will particulate and vanish as well. As a result, the USA and every market based economy will bankrupt. This will not be a collapse per se and certainly not one such as depression or severe recession. This will be a worldwide failure of debt based economies. This will be the comeuppance of the 1%ers. This will be the death knell of economic fascism. The last May recession was the last warning against the GREED, CORRUPTION, POWER and RULE that are so endemic to the wealthy of the world and this final collapse, which has already started, will take down the world. Don't look for a beginning of the end. The end is already under way.


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## JohnDB (Jan 10, 2022)

Aside from the points that the Russian troll wishes to promote....

As I predicted the market is in correction.  
Today is another day of red ink for the indexes.  

As Biden seeks to fast pace the taper and increase bond yields....the amount of capitol flight from other countries is going to be staggering.  (Pouring into the American markets). Further exacerbating inflation here in the USA while double and triple digit inflation rages in emerging markets.


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## JohnDB (Jan 10, 2022)

Gold and other metals haven't budged yet...
That tells me that someone (or several someone's)who are strapped for cash are dumping gold into the market and any other assets they own trying to keep the lights on.


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## DudleySmith (Jan 10, 2022)

Just because demand is high doesn't mean the ability to pay has risen overall. This is why those simplistic' supply and demand' graphs are bullshit fantasies along with that 'efficient markets' nonsense. Oligarchies and giant conglomerates warp markets no end.


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## DudleySmith (Jan 10, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> Gold and other metals haven't budged yet...
> That tells me that someone (or several someone's)who are strapped for cash are dumping gold into the market and any other assets they own trying to keep the lights on.


Not really. That's possible, but it's not the only reason, there are several good reasons why that happens.


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## DudleySmith (Jan 10, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> .the amount of capitol flight from other countries is going to be staggering. (Pouring into the American markets).



lol that has been going on since 2007-2008. It's not 'going to be staggering', it already has been 'staggering' for 13 years or so.


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## DudleySmith (Jan 10, 2022)

Abatis said:


> Personally I think the currency shufflers in the markets will continue to keep the plates spinning, the "end" will come in trade, we will see the dollar be rejected in international settlement.
> 
> Years ago when gold was at or below cost of production, China bought mines all over the globe.  They also bought tankers and retrofitted them to carry ore . . .   They bring the ore home and refine it.
> 
> ...



Nobody can see the future, but I've been hearing about the imminent demise of the dollar for the last 55 years; it's not only still here it's still the world's most in demand currency. As bad as its value has declined, most others have fared worse, a lot worse.


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## JohnDB (Jan 10, 2022)

DudleySmith said:


> lol that has been going on since 2007-2008. It's not 'going to be staggering', it already has been 'staggering' for 13 years or so.


Yes but when they have hyperinflation...they seek shelter for their wealth...which in turn creates more inflation of American dollars.


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## JohnDB (Jan 10, 2022)

DudleySmith said:


> Nobody can see the future, but I've been hearing about the imminent demise of the dollar for the last 55 years; it's not only still here it's still the world's most in demand currency. As bad as its value has declined, most others have fared worse, a lot worse.


Agreed...
But better handling of the economy is needed.  
Biden put out too much stimulus too soon.  That's been the beef of many on Wall Street.  (Although hushed mostly) 

He should have waited until the vaccines were actually rolling out instead of hearing that they were almost ready to be put up for approval.  Which just happened to coincide with Biden winning the election.  (What jackasses the Fed and SEC have been)

So now we have to pay the piper for an overly eager rollout.  Well, we have been paying for it with shipping container shortages, shipping issues at ports, supply chain interruptions and stagflation.  

All because of politics has been prioritized over health of the economy.


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## a1623yankee (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> it is only a minor part of what interest rate defines or influences.
> 
> in your situation of giant overdentedness the most important effect of the interest rate is, as you said, but without proper elaboration - to influence borrowing.
> 
> ...


The USA was headed to the abyss the very moment that the Fed and JP Morgan and pals' debt economy was fired up and rolling. The fact that it has largely avoided the edge of the cliff thus far is only due to the clever criminal style manipulations (ie scams) of frightened Fed directors. That these scams are irrevocably rolling to ultimate disaster is a given but our so-called elected officials are utterly incapable, incompetent and thoroughly childlike in their abilities (lack thereof) to steer this nation away from its doom. The people of the USA have fallen victim to scumbag politics and the dimwit, exclusively self serving, "party of business" that has consistently aimed this nation toward its own death. Following the death scent too closely are the left wing cowards who supposedly oppose them and they will waterfall over the edge of doom chasing the right wing boogeymen dragging us and the world with them. Our LIAR politicians and so-called Big Business Leaders deserve a hearty worldwide FU and a solid roundhouse right to the tips of their nasty GREEDY noses and into their eyes!


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## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

All total from March low  of 2020 to the highs of this year

We have lost in a week ¹/20th of the gains in that time...over a trillion dollars of value has evaporated last week.  Everyone was cheering when Apple had a three trillion dollar capitalization on the daily trading value...
Today it's just 2.80 trillion.


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## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> All total from March low  of 2020 to the highs of this year
> 
> We have lost in a week ¹/20th of the gains in that time...over a trillion dollars of value has evaporated last week.  Everyone was cheering when Apple had a three trillion dollar capitalization on the daily trading value...
> Today it's just 2.80 trillion.


when everybody rushes to the exit everybody will finally understand that all these gains were not growth of value but inflationof stocks. 

All this virtual money will be lost.


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## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> when everybody rushes to the exit everybody will finally understand that all these gains were not growth of value but inflationof stocks.
> 
> All this virtual money will be lost.


Less than 2% of money is actually physically printed or minted. Probably a lot less than the last time I looked (because it has never mattered) 

Cash and checkable deposits is "dead money". Meaning it isn't doing anything...it doesn't matter.  It's only potential to do something.  Only drug dealers and prostitutes use physical cash anymore.


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## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> Less than 2% of money is actually physically printed or minted. Probably a lot less than the last time I looked (because it has never mattered)
> 
> Cash and checkable deposits is "dead money". Meaning it isn't doing anything...it doesn't matter.  It's only potential to do something.  Only drug dealers and prostitutes use physical cash anymore.


saying "printing money" I of course mean non-physical money (debt) emission


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## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> saying "printing money" I of course mean non-physical money (debt) emission


Are you referring to bonds?  
Bonds are money as well.  They are a physical instrument that is traded for tangible goods no different than anything else.  

If someone holds 100 million dollars worth of stable stocks they can issue a bond worth 50-60 million for them.  And that 50-60 million cash spends just fine on things like yachts, houses, and golf club membership.


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## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> Are you referring to bonds?
> Bonds are money as well.  They are a physical instrument that is traded for tangible goods no different than anything else.
> 
> If someone holds 100 million dollars worth of stable stocks they can issue a bond worth 50-60 million for them.  And that 50-60 million cash spends just fine on things like yachts, houses, and golf club membership.


no, I am referring to M0, the Fed balance sheet. 
or shit, it's the same nowadays...


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## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> If someone holds 100 million dollars worth of stable stocks they can issue a bond worth 50-60 million for them.  And that 50-60 million cash spends just fine on things like yachts, houses, and golf club membership.


and how are you going to :
1) pay interest on them if % is raised
2) cover margin call if today your stocks are worth 100 mln and then suddenly fall to 50 mln? and your debt is 60 plus interest?

the 2nd point is the most vital for coming months...


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## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> no, I am referring to M0, the Fed balance sheet.
> or shit, it's the same nowadays...


The federal government issues treasury notes...they are a listed commodity and usable as collateral.  2 yr, 10 yr, and 30 year notes are all listed on the exchanges and their yields are watched...they aren't variable rates.  ROFL. 

You really don't seem to understand economics very well.


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## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> and how are you going to :
> 1) pay interest on them if % is raised
> 2) cover margin call if today your stocks are worth 100 mln and then suddenly fall to 50 mln? and your debt is 60 plus interest?
> 
> the 2nd point is the most vital for coming months...


Usually you don't borrow to the limit of the value of your stocks.  

Margin rates are different but usually related to how much you can borrow.  

Let's create another example shall we?

Say for example I had a million dollars in my retirement portfolio but outside the normal tax structures of retirement portfolios. (Not that uncommon) 

So I borrowed $500K and bought the limit of what I could of NVDIA or Apple stocks.  

And depending on which I bought...I either tripled my money or doubled it this past year.  
Even though I might have lost 5% these past two weeks I can settle that debt quite easily.  I either have another million or half million dollars to pay interest (1%) fees and pocket the rest.  
So...
Now that interest rates are climbing...
And risk is usually calculated between 3-9%and sometimes all the way out to 14% in addition for risk/reward investment calculations...those higher interest rates are also figured in for any borrowed money.  Meaning that I am going to be more selective in what I invest in.  
There's not going to be any margin call for the money I've borrowed.  Provided that I've been prudent in what I invest in and that the lenders agree with my choices.  They aren't going to complain or whine.  
Now if I started off buying Micron when it was $90/share the first time last spring/summer...then they might have something to say when it dropped to 55/share...but with the current Market conditions they aren't going to say anything at all.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> The federal government issues treasury notes...they are a listed commodity and usable as collateral.  2 yr, 10 yr, and 30 year notes are all listed on the exchanges and their yields are watched...they aren't variable rates.  ROFL.
> 
> You really don't seem to understand economics very well.


I rather have animpression that you are trying to demonstrate what you know on economy without it being tied to the issue or to what I say 

Treasury notes are bought by the Fed using this very "printed" or emitted money.
This emitted money can be used to finance government's budget deficite via buying Treasury notes, or via buying subprime mortgage debt from banks, or buying various kinds of debt, including bonds, or buying even stocks as Japan has been doing for a long time, Europe probably has just started to do and it's to be checked if the US started doing it too.

I don't want to sound as lecturing you ar make our discussion confrontational in any way, but I tend to think you don't quite understand what MO means and how the Fed prints money 

otherwise you would not have pointed at something secondary ignoring my excessive clarification that saying printing money I mean M0 .


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> I rather have animpression that you are trying to demonstrate what you know on economy without it being tied to the issue or to what I say
> 
> Treasury notes are bought by the Fed using this very "printed" or emitted money.
> This emitted money can be used to finance government's budget deficite via buying Treasury notes, or via buying subprime mortgage debt from banks, or buying various kinds of debt, including bonds, or buying even stocks as Japan has been doing for a long time, Europe probably has just started to do and it's to be checked if the US started doing it too.
> ...


Well you obviously don't know what you are talking about.  
And it's rather difficult to speak to someone who knows something very poorly.  

M1, M2, and M3 money is all money.  

I have no clue what M0 money you are referring to.  Certainly doesn't exist in English classes.... maybe that Siberian snow has corrupted your brain.


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Ok. I found a reference...

And M⁰ is a worthless number.  Nobody pays attention to it.  We have a system of the Federal Reserve that keeps the money flowing.  
Now in Russia?  They shut down every day for Vodka... you have an equivalent but like I said...they shut down for vodka and pretty blondes crossing the street.   Also if chocolate shows up in the local grocery store.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> *Usually you don't borrow to the limit of the value of your stocks. *
> 
> Margin rates are different but usually related to how much you can borrow.



We'll definitely return to your example later, but I see you don't understand my point in my example, I have to explain it gurther. 

I don't trade and don't have stocks, I am just interested in economy, so you may correct me in exact figures. 

I presume collateral for a loan is usually about 80%, is it correct for the US?

It means that having stocks worth 100 mln dollars your limit of credit would be 80 mln. 

You got it. But stocks fall by 20%. No, let it be even 5%. It means your collateral now is worth 76 mln and the bank comes to you with demand to either add some stocks worth 4 mln or pay the same sum in money. 

If you got not 80 mln but let us say 60 mln - you proposed this sum - so, it means a credit worth 60 mln requires collateral worth 75 mln. You allocated 75 mln of your stocks as collateral. 

Then, if stocks drop by 20%, then 75 mln f collateral turn into 60 mln, and if collateral must be 80% of price of stocks then your collateral is now worth 48 mln. 
The margin is 12 mln. 

25 mln of stocks now are worth 20 mln.If you usecthem as collateral they will be 20 mln x80% =16 mln. 

Well, you will survive 20% drop, you wil still have about 5 mln of stocks not used as collateral. 
Though, I forgot about the interest... 

So, summing up, if you have stocks worth 100 mln and made a debt worth 60 mln maximum what you can afford yourself is 20% drop. 
If more - you will go bankrupt. 

The US stock market grew by e, 5 times since 2008, if I remember correctly. 
It dropped by around 20% in autumn 2018, after the Fed started tightening, did it? 

I mean you are all doomed in both ways. 
If the Fed keeps printing money inflation will gradually turn into hyperinflation which will kill you. 
If the Fed starts tightening the stock market will collapse creating a giant wave of margin calls as it was in 2008.

Very simple, there is no way out of current situation.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> Well you obviously don't know what you are talking about.
> And it's rather difficult to speak to someone who knows something very poorly.
> 
> M1, M2, and M3 money is all money.
> ...


John, leave Siberian snow and my brain alone, if you are a serious investor don't spoil my attempts to seriously explain to you how you will lose your money  

Of course M1, M2 and M3 are all money. And a dog is an animal, and even a cat is  
But what the Fed  prints is basic money, M0 which creates all other Ms, being put into financial system. 
Simply put, look at the Fed's balanxe sheet. 
This is exactly money which the Fed "prints".


----------



## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> Let's create another example shall we?
> 
> Say for example I had a million dollars in my retirement portfolio but outside the normal tax structures of retirement portfolios. (Not that uncommon)
> 
> ...



now, turning to your example. 

You say - I can settle the debt. 
But did you? 
The growth we witnessed is made by partially QE money which go via banks to corporations which use it for buybacks or, in situation when inflation is accelerating, but accounts in the bank bring 1-2% (am I correct?) - there is no way for the people to save their money but to invest their savings in sonething which alone is still growing. 
The stock market. 
A giant bubble is created. 
And imagine if even a small portion of these small investors decide to sell their stocks. 

If the Fed really stops pumping 120 bln dollars a month of QE money into economy by March - there will be much less buybacks. If the market growth does not excede inflation - small investors will start leaving the market turning into gold or real estate. Stocks will first stagnate and ghen an avalanche of selling will follow. 

Have you sold your shares? 
You have not, so all your profit does not exist, it can and will evaporate because greed will make you wait if stocks dtop by 5%, then by 10%, then at 15% you will buy even more because "stocks always grow", and then at 21% drop it will become your personal financial catastrophe.


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> We'll definitely return to your example later, but I see you don't understand my point in my example, I have to explain it gurther.
> 
> I don't trade and don't have stocks, I am just interested in economy, so you may correct me in exact figures.
> 
> ...


No... totally wrong. 
You are not allowed to borrow so much.  

Margin is 40% for most stocks.  
Meaning that you can't borrow too much or else they have a margin call...where all assets and loans are made to balance.  If you get out of balance they make a margin call and everything is monitored... open books are the norm here.  The bank sees everything when you borrow money for any reason.  And they like to collect.  Not have defaults.  They don't want to make margin calls.  (Bad for business) 

You can't borrow at the percentages you are claiming and most people don't push to the outer limits of their lines of credit. A few tried this past summer and those hedge funds got margin calls and dissolved.  The others got appropriately chastised and warned and fixed their books.   Even the Government can't go beyond what the Central Accounting Office says they have available for credit.  And they got some fancy accounting.  
My biggest beef currently is that the government seems to be using accounts receivable as an asset for purchasing debt.  Private businesses are usually put in jail for such...but it's the government so there's not much we can do.  

But there's also opposition political party that keeps the spending in check.  

And considering the history of the Russian Government spending.... you got no room to talk.  They are on their third? Currency since the fall of the Soviet Union which fell apart for exactly that very reason. 

So we are stable for a long looooong time yet.  We have the reserve deposit currency used by most of the world.  It certainly isn't the Ruble.


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> now, turning to your example.
> 
> You say - I can settle the debt.
> But did you?
> ...


Im actually sitting on cash at the moment.  

I am not exactly sure of what is going to do well and which is not.  
I'm also switching my retirement portfolio to one that is actively managed... my play account is all cash.  Until I can find the signals I'm looking for I won't purchase.  And previously I was in Coffee and oil and gold and lumber.  But I'm sitting on cash at the moment.  
And when I find a good place to land...I will.


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> now, turning to your example.
> 
> You say - I can settle the debt.
> But did you?
> ...


And the Fed pumps money into the market by selling cheap bonds and lowering the prime lending rate.  

They don't just get out a pump and connect it to a magic vault.  ROFL...
You got some really warped ideas.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> No... totally wrong.
> You are not allowed to borrow so much.
> 
> Margin is 40% for most stocks.
> ...



40% or 80% does not really matter for you, the bank will come to you after the same 20% of fall. 
It is tge bank, not you who benefits from lowering margin level to 40%, because it ensures that the bank will not lose money even if the fall is 30%. But for you it just decreases the sum you can borrow. 

You should be better informed. 
The, US looks as an absolute Zimbabwe compared to present Russia. 
Public debt is 17% of GDP in Russia and 128% in the US. 
US budget deficite is astronomical 14,9%, while in Russia in covid 2020 it was 3,8%, while for other 15 or so years we had budget surplus. 
We have positive foreign trade and curfent account balabces. 
The US have negative foreign trade and current account balances. 

Additionally, all this carnival of yours depends solely on Dollar being the World trade currency and supsequent ability if the Fed to print money to finance your debt. 
But is is going to end in a couple of years as Yuan substitutes Dollar as the World currency. 

Recall what I said about only 2 options the Fed has - to pring into hyperinflation or taper into stock market collapse.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> And the Fed pumps money into the market by selling cheap bonds and lowering the prime lending rate.
> 
> They don't just get out a pump and connect it to a magic vault.  ROFL...
> You got some really warped ideas.


you may have heard already the Fed promised to stop pumping money into the market by March and then to start raising the interest rate 
Of course it is just promises, I think after a dive by ~15-20% they will resume QE in triple volume, but it will accelerate inflation even more...


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> 40% or 80% does not really matter for you, the bank will come to you after the same 20% of fall.
> It is tge bank, not you who benefits from lowering margin level to 40%, because it ensures that the bank will not lose money even if the fall is 30%. But for you it just decreases the sum you can borrow.
> 
> You should be better informed.
> ...


Like I said...
Very large funds went under this past summer and their stocks were sold... dumped actually...not in the usual drip that lasts for months...but dumped.  I got caught in that dumping as I held some of the same stocks.  So I held tight and came out just fine.  

It's called underwriting....we have extremely strict guidelines for underwriting.  So what you propose is not a possibility. You are an idiot.


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> you may have heard already the Fed promised to stop pumping money into the market by March and then to start raising the interest rate
> Of course it is just promises, I think after a dive by ~15-20% they will resume QE in triple volume, but it will accelerate inflation even more...


And guess who is going to buy that debt?  

YOU by means of Russia.  (Probably not) 

But there will be some sales of bonds abroad in exchange for stuff.  That's usually Biden's "go to" for backhanded stimulus and it won't hit the inflation meter so hard.  Japan will buy some...so will the Saudis. Taiwan likely will as well.  

Europe?  They are already up to their eyeballs in debt from their own borrowing and the disaster Greece made happen.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> Like I said...
> Very large funds went under this past summer and their stocks were sold... dumped actually...not in the usual drip that lasts for months...but dumped.  I got caught in that dumping as I held some of the same stocks.  So I held tight and came out just fine.
> 
> It's called underwriting....we have extremely strict guidelines for underwriting.  So what you propose is not a possibility. You are an idiot.


John, calling names is affordable for an American redneck like you, but for the rest  - just when you go bankrupt in next stock market collapse, let the fact that you were forewarned make your bankruptcy even more bitter  
I think I am not going to go another round of explaining the same


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> John, calling names is affordable for an American redneck like you, but for the rest  - just when you go bankrupt in next stock market collapse, let the fact that you were forewarned make your bankruptcy even more bitter
> I think I am not going to go another round of explaining the same


Well all your figures are wrong...your percentages way off.  And you ignore pertinent information.  

I ain't even a redneck...just a wannabe.  

Whatcha gonna do when Russia issues yet another new currency and you can't pay the rent on your cardboard box?


----------



## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> And guess who is going to buy that debt?
> 
> YOU by means of Russia.  (Probably not)
> 
> ...


not Russia, we reduced our holding of US treasury notes to marginal digits, some sort of a couple of billions of about half a trilion of Russian reserves  

Of course some US puppets will buy some debt, but inflation accelerates worldwide and one puppet after another will fall out, starting from the most vulnerable like Turkey or Egypt etc. 

you seem not to understand the core problem of the West. 

YOUR ECONOMY DOES NOT CREATE PROFIT. 
The only place where some virtual profit is made is the stock market which grows thanks to QE only. 

This deeply flawed system is a zombie and is going to collapse soon.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> Well all your figures are wrong...your percentages way off.  And you ignore pertinent information.
> 
> I ain't even a redneck...just a wannabe.
> 
> Whatcha gonna do when Russia issues yet another new currency and you can't pay the rent on your cardboard box?


my figures are not wrong, they are abstract, to demonstrate the principle.
You can  recalculate everything yourself using your figures to find out that the same 20% drop is lethal for you.


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> not Russia, we reduced our holding of US treasury notes to marginal digits, some sort of a couple of billions of about half a trilion of Russian reserves
> 
> Of course some US puppets will buy some debt, but inflation accelerates worldwide and one puppet after another will fall out, starting from the most vulnerable like Turkey or Egypt etc.
> 
> ...


Totally missed the function of our economy.  

We profit from all our investments in other nations.  It's why Biden wants an international tax on corporations that don't pay much taxes in America.  

I can buy Micron, an American corp.  But it's facilities and offices are in over 20 different countries.  They don't just make and sell memory chips in America.  

Unless the whole world collapses they aren't going to go out of business...or be so cash strapped that they stop paying dividends.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 11, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> Totally missed the function of our economy.
> 
> We profit from all our investments in other nations.  It's why Biden wants an international tax on corporations that don't pay much taxes in America.
> 
> ...


indeed, the US benefits much from activity abroad.

but what was the core process in the World economy between 2008 and now?

by 2008 the Western economy got overdebted and came to the brink of collapse due to lack of solvency.

but the Fed started QE, it kept Western economy afloat sumultaneously sucking solvency from the rest of the World.

low interest rate created carry trade, US banks were crediting 3d countries' banks which were crediting local business and consumers.

By now the rest of the World fast forwarded to the same condition to which the West came by 2008 - overdebtedness.
Now every Ethiopian peasant has a debt he cannot pay.

And of course the US will be the last to fall if the World collapse starts right now, first these small nations will fall, whose currency does not allow to QE without immediate hyperinflation.

But it is a weak relief for the US, it just postpones the collapse of the US, but it is still a collapse of US-centered World economic system.
In which collapse of the US will come in its term. very soon, a couple of years.


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 11, 2022)

Siberian said:


> indeed, the US benefits much from activity abroad.
> 
> but what was the core process in the World economy between 2008 and now?
> 
> ...


You and the QE.  

The market is in correction as I accurately predicted for this month.  Capital flight from other countries is heading straight to America.  (Assisting in inflation) and soon Biden will be backdoor ING some bonds abroad.  

No QE issues.  No capital issues.  No solvency issues.  The highest standard of living in the world is still secure and Russia is still pissed off about it and isn't much more than a drunken paper tiger.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 12, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> You and the QE.
> 
> The market is in correction as I accurately predicted for this month.  Capital flight from other countries is heading straight to America.  (Assisting in inflation) and soon Biden will be backdoor ING some bonds abroad.
> 
> No QE issues.  No capital issues.  No solvency issues.  The highest standard of living in the world is still secure and Russia is still pissed off about it and isn't much more than a drunken paper tiger.


John, you are a living example how QE keeps inefficient US economy afloat. 

Because with so weird and wrong perception of economy like yours one would have gone bankrupt long ago without QE. 

US capital flows stay within average levels, it means there is no special increase to create change in anything, including inflation. It is a false narrative. And your being delusional. 

make 10 years in the table


----------



## Siberian (Jan 12, 2022)

but what really accelerates global inflation is US growing current account deficite, which means that the Fed prints more (uncovered with goods) money to finance your deficite in trade., creates extra demand without creating proper supply of good. 





__





						United States Current Account - 2022 Data - 2023 Forecast - 1960-2021 Historical
					

The current account deficit in the US widened to a record high of $291.4 billion in Q1 of 2022 from an upwardly revised $224.8 billion in the previous period and above market expectations of $273.5 billion, mostly due to a surge in imports of goods. Imports of goods increased by $71.1 billion to...




					tradingeconomics.com


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 12, 2022)

Siberian said:


> but what really accelerates global inflation is US growing current account deficite, which means that the Fed prints more (uncovered with goods) money to finance your deficite in trade., creates extra demand without creating proper supply of good.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So...the WHOLE WORLD is going to financially collapse?  

Now who's delusional?


----------



## Siberian (Jan 12, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> So...the WHOLE WORLD is going to financially collapse?
> 
> Now who's delusional?


exactly, the whole World. Since after collapse of the USSR the American financial system has expanded to the whole World.
Rather it's a delusion to state the opposite..

it is going to be the biggest economic collapse/crises in human History.


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 12, 2022)

Siberian said:


> exactly, the whole World. Since after collapse of the USSR the American financial system has expanded to the whole World.
> Rather it's a delusion to state the opposite..
> 
> it is going to be the biggest economic collapse/crises in human History.


So...better to go out as a big glowing ball from radiation eh?  

End of the world as we know it?  

Not happening.


----------



## Siberian (Jan 12, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> So...better to go out as a big glowing ball from radiation eh?
> 
> End of the world as we know it?
> 
> Not happening.


empires fall,  but it is not the end of the World. even in US territory there will be life in 10 years.


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 12, 2022)

Siberian said:


> empires fall,  but it is not the end of the World. even in US territory there will be life in 10 years.


So grow a long scraggly beard and lose a few front teeth...
Then get a sign that says "The End is Near" and join the apocalypse union...LU 429 for your district.  

We got hundreds of guys like you in every town.  

And what pray tell is your motivation for enlightening all of us with your "wisdom"?


----------



## Siberian (Jan 12, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> So grow a long scraggly beard and lose a few front teeth...
> Then get a sign that says "The End is Near" and join the apocalypse union...LU 429 for your district.
> 
> We got hundreds of guys like you in every town.
> ...


don't look up. 
the stocks will always grow


----------



## Nova78 (Jan 16, 2022)

rightwinger said:


> I don’t think we will see a significant downturn in the near future.
> 
> While we saw a 27 percent increase this year, I expect a more modest 8 percent next year.


What, due to all the great work of oatmeal brain Biden        ,


----------



## Nova78 (Jan 16, 2022)

rightwinger said:


> Lets see……
> 
> I made big money in the Stock Market under
> Clinton
> ...


----------



## rightwinger (Jan 16, 2022)

Nova78 said:


>


The numbers don’t lie

The Stock Market does better under a Democratic President

Looking for a collapse?
Elect a Republican


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 16, 2022)

For the first two weeks of this year the market has taken a nosedive...as I predicted it would.  
I don't see it recovering...I see it tanking some more.  Energy prices have spiked but Gold and Bitcoin have not.  That's from the double digit inflation that is going to starve people around the world.  

Energy is doing well in an inflation market because out output is at maximum levels. Can't flood the market with it if you don't have any.  In fact there's an energy shortage.  Insufficient quantities to meet demands.


----------



## john doe 101 (Jan 18, 2022)

The real issue is when the market went down to 19k in 2020, it never reached the bottom.  the real bottom on the dow is around 16k.  Ever since the market hit 19k in 2020, it's gone parabolic.  That means it's going to be as fast on the downside.  I wont make an exact call on the downside to 16k-ish range, but i've never been wrong on my downside calls.  I'll enjoy every second of it though.


----------



## Turtlesoup (Jan 18, 2022)

rightwinger said:


> I don’t think we will see a significant downturn in the near future.
> 
> While we saw a 27 percent increase this year, I expect a more modest 8 percent next year.


You are not accounting for INFLATION------


----------



## Turtlesoup (Jan 18, 2022)

citygator said:


> If trends hold court the next economic downturn will occur under the next republicans president… again.


Yes City....the FEDs are trying to hold out their rate hikes till long enough that the economy doesn't collapse before the election in order to help the swamp dems.


----------



## citygator (Jan 18, 2022)

Turtlesoup said:


> Yes City....the FEDs are trying to hold out their rate hikes till long enough that the economy doesn't collapse before the election in order to help the swamp dems.


Trump begged and pleaded for a zero interest rate. Under Biden you have a Fed signaling the rise of rates several times and no squawking from Biden. Manufacture reality in bed as a dream, not as a post reply to me.


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 18, 2022)

john doe 101 said:


> The real issue is when the market went down to 19k in 2020, it never reached the bottom.  the real bottom on the dow is around 16k.  Ever since the market hit 19k in 2020, it's gone parabolic.  That means it's going to be as fast on the downside.  I wont make an exact call on the downside to 16k-ish range, but i've never been wrong on my downside calls.  I'll enjoy every second of it though.


Your charts don't take inflation and devalued currencies into consideration.  That's why the "bottom" wasn't reached. And we have had more of that this time than last time.  We have double digit inflation... going to keep it for a while too.  And it really doesn't get figured in...no real way to do it either.  This is another reason why nobody likes inflation.  

And no, it's not going to be pleasant.  Currently the only commodity demonstrating the inflation is petroleum/energy prices because the market is somewhat fixed with supply holding steady as well as consumption.  

Gold should be reflecting the situation BUT someone(s) are rather cash strapped and dumping their supplies for the cash to pay bills.  It's going to be a while yet but they will run out soon enough.  Especially as energy keeps climbing.


----------



## DBA (Jan 21, 2022)

citygator said:


> Trump begged and pleaded for a zero interest rate. Under Biden you have a Fed signaling the rise of rates several times and no squawking from Biden. Manufacture reality in bed as a dream, not as a post reply to me.


Both Trump and Biden were dealing with the same interest rate as of now and yet one economy was performing much better than the other. Inflation was under control with Trump and out-of-control with Biden . The FED is forced to make a move now because Biden's policies are downright detrimental to our economy.


----------



## citygator (Jan 21, 2022)

DBA said:


> Both Trump and Biden were dealing with the same interest rate as of now and yet one economy was performing much better than the other. Inflation was under control with Trump and out-of-control with Biden . The FED is forced to make a move now because Biden's policies are downright detrimental to our economy.


You must have missed the end of the Trump movie. I don’t want to spoil it for you but it ended up breaking records for underperforming. If you discount Trumps final year due to Covid you should discount Biden’s first year. Basically I’m saying your comment is a joke.


----------



## DBA (Jan 21, 2022)

citygator said:


> You must have missed the end of the Trump movie. I don’t want to spoil it for you but it ended up breaking records for underperforming. If you discount Trumps final year due to Covid you should discount Biden’s first year. Basically I’m saying your comment is a joke.



No, your ignorance is a joke.  Biden's policies are a *drag *on our economy. Full stop.


----------



## JohnDB (Jan 21, 2022)

My prediction for a correction and consolidation for January is right on the money.  

We should be hitting bottom next week at some point.  Irrational exuberance causing hiccups for February is probably on the way too.  By summer/Fall there might be a limited rally with more hiccups. (Yo yo stock market) 

Even Gold isn't doing well.  

With the international political uncertainty and instability (Myanmar today) it's shaping up to be a chit show all year.


----------



## citygator (Jan 21, 2022)

DBA said:


> No, your ignorance is a joke.  Biden's policies are a *drag *on our economy. Full stop.


Yea. Let me take your emotional unsubstantiated opinion post into consideration. 

Edit: Ok after serious consideration I printed and wiped my ass with it. Couldn’t find another use for it.


----------



## citygator (Jan 21, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> My prediction for a correction and consolidation for January is right on the money.
> 
> We should be hitting bottom next week at some point.  Irrational exuberance causing hiccups for February is probably on the way too.  By summer/Fall there might be a limited rally with more hiccups. (Yo yo stock market)
> 
> ...


So… you shorting the markets today?  Let us know how big you went. I love the tension when someone goes all out for their beliefs.


----------



## DBA (Jan 21, 2022)

citygator said:


> Yea. Let me take your emotional unsubstantiated opinion post into consideration.
> 
> Edit: Ok after serious consideration I printed and wiped my ass with it. Couldn’t find another use for it.


Sorry, you are right. Bidens policies are sound and are stmimulating the economy. Gotcha.


----------



## citygator (Jan 21, 2022)

DBA said:


> Sorry, you are right. Bidens policies are sound and are stmimulating the economy. Gotcha.


Either admit Trump blew the economy or give Trump and Biden a pass for the last two years. Either way it’s ok with me. But you’d be a moron to think Trump ran a good economy and Biden didn’t.


----------



## Golfing Gator (Jan 21, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> All total from March low  of 2020 to the highs of this year
> 
> We have lost in a week ¹/20th of the gains in that time...over a trillion dollars of value has evaporated last week.  Everyone was cheering when Apple had a three trillion dollar capitalization on the daily trading value...
> Today it's just 2.80 trillion.



This is how the rich get richer.  People will get spooked and bail and those with the money to do so will buy the stock cheap and when it goes back up their wealth will as well.


----------



## DBA (Jan 21, 2022)

citygator said:


> Either admit Trump blew the economy or give Trump and Biden a pass for the last two years. Either way it’s ok with me. But you’d be a moron to think Trump ran a good economy and Biden didn’t.



Trump was in charge for 3 years prior to COVID.  He doesn’t need a pass.  When Biden took over without an approved vaccine, inflation was around 2% and the economy and the markets where on a upward trajectory again.  Biden road the vaccine wave and now both are on a downward trajectory.  If you can’t see that, then it would behoove you to let someone else call the shots with any money you may have invested.  Biden’s policies are nothing but detrimental to our economy. 

It doesn’t take a degree in Economics to figure out what is going on as I stated the inflation wasn’t transitory many months ago and it is absolutely due to Biden and his inability to fix the supply chain disruption, mainly caused by a labor shortage, along with his energy policies. Many of you choose to listen to and believe indoctrinated fools who tell you otherwise.


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## JohnDB (Jan 22, 2022)

citygator said:


> So… you shorting the markets today?  Let us know how big you went. I love the tension when someone goes all out for their beliefs.


Actually I went all cash...
Because shorting the market requires babysitting your positions.  And I've been working on a new venture.  It's taking up most of my time lately.  

And I got a lot more work to do...so playing the market isn't exactly going to work for me at the moment.  I could have bought into a hedge fund but they need watching too.  And most of the gains from the hedge funds is almost over anyway.  (At this point) 

Actively managed ETF funds will be better for what I want at the moment than doing it myself.  I get better gains when I do things myself than having someone else do it.  (And I have to pay them for the lower returns) but my attention is elsewhere... because there's more to life than money.  
Sure money is the grease that allows the wheels to turn...but the cart moving forward is the important part.


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## JohnDB (Jan 22, 2022)

Golfing Gator said:


> This is how the rich get richer.  People will get spooked and bail and those with the money to do so will buy the stock cheap and when it goes back up their wealth will as well.


80/20 law...
80% of people buy the wrong stock at the wrong time from poorly made decisions.  

So to make money you have to do the exact opposite of everyone else.  You sell when everyone is buying...you buy when nobody else is.  (Don't try to catch falling knives) 

And you also have had to stay awake in Economics classes...not count on the old drunk professor to give you a passing grade just because you are drinking buddies.


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## percysunshine (Jan 25, 2022)

Yesterday, or maybe tomorrow....


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## Otis Mayfield (Jan 26, 2022)

The stock market crashed a 1,000 points on Monday morning. 

By Monday evening it was back up where it started.

What a roller coaster.

Rumors that the fed will raise interest rates. Ukraine war. COVID.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Jan 26, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> Or they have played options and didn't set up known configurations for profits...instead they shot craps and lost



What are "known configurations for profits..."?


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## Golfing Gator (Jan 26, 2022)

Otis Mayfield said:


> The stock market crashed a 1,000 points on Monday morning.
> 
> By Monday evening it was back up where it started.
> 
> ...



The NASDAQ is up almost 400 points today.   It is pretty crazy


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## JohnDB (Jan 26, 2022)

Toddsterpatriot said:


> What are "known configurations for profits..."?


You set reasonable profit targets and as you get close you begin taking money off the table... leaving just a very small amount for the very top and fall back... which is when you take that back too.  

Stocks rise or fall for usually good reasons and will have price targets for when market conditions are met.  

You can make money regardless of a rising or falling stock price...it just got to move. 

No loyalty, no hopes, just buying and selling (but not necessarily in that order) 

It's money... nothing to get emotional over.  Even though many people do get very emotional over it.  I've been rich, been poor... never really cared. My friends are what really matter through it all.


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## JohnDB (Jan 26, 2022)

Golfing Gator said:


> The NASDAQ is up almost 400 points today.   It is pretty crazy


The volatility in the market is over the top lately...it's too much.  I've cashed everything out and am sitting on cash.  When it calms down some I'll get back in...

I like it moving...just not like it has the past week.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Jan 26, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> You set reasonable profit targets and as you get close you begin taking money off the table... leaving just a very small amount for the very top and fall back... which is when you take that back too.
> 
> Stocks rise or fall for usually good reasons and will have price targets for when market conditions are met.
> 
> ...



*You set reasonable profit targets and as you get close you begin taking money off the table... leaving just a very small amount for the very top and fall back... which is when you take that back too.*

Setting a reasonable target doesn't guarantee a profit.

*You can make money regardless of a rising or falling stock price...it just got to move.*

Can you be a little more specific? Like with some of your known configurations?
The ones that aren't shooting craps.


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## JohnDB (Jan 27, 2022)

Toddsterpatriot said:


> *You set reasonable profit targets and as you get close you begin taking money off the table... leaving just a very small amount for the very top and fall back... which is when you take that back too.*
> 
> Setting a reasonable target doesn't guarantee a profit.
> 
> ...


It requires at least a year of a good foundation in studying global economics and then a year of understanding all the various chart formations of Fibinacci and the infamous cup w/handle...more than just the Wycoff spring. And you expect me to teach you the fundamentals in a forum post?  
Lots of reasons the market moves...today with all the retail investors it's not exactly a calm ride or actually behaving appropriately.  Mostly because a lot of retail investors have purchased trading software and let it make their choices for them.  So it's somewhat predictable but you literally have to babysit a set of computer screens all day.  Not exactly my idea of a fun filled day.  Sure you make money but...meh...


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## JohnDB (Jan 27, 2022)

Looks like another wild ride for the market today.


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## Golfing Gator (Jan 27, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> I've cashed everything out and am sitting on cash. When it calms down some I'll get back in...



Not sure I would ever do that at this point in my life.   Have a decade to accumulate as much as I can for retirement.


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## JohnDB (Jan 27, 2022)

Toddsterpatriot said:


> *You set reasonable profit targets and as you get close you begin taking money off the table... leaving just a very small amount for the very top and fall back... which is when you take that back too.*
> 
> Setting a reasonable target doesn't guarantee a profit.
> 
> ...


Heres some information...








						How to Day Trade for a Living (Beginner’s Guide) Story | Wealth of Geeks
					

With a little bit of dedication and prior planning along with owning the required software and equipment, you can decide when to day trade and what to trade on.




					stories.app.goo.gl


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## Toddsterpatriot (Jan 27, 2022)

JohnDB said:


> It requires at least a year of a good foundation in studying global economics and then a year of understanding all the various chart formations of Fibinacci and the infamous cup w/handle...more than just the Wycoff spring. And you expect me to teach you the fundamentals in a forum post?
> Lots of reasons the market moves...today with all the retail investors it's not exactly a calm ride or actually behaving appropriately.  Mostly because a lot of retail investors have purchased trading software and let it make their choices for them.  So it's somewhat predictable but you literally have to babysit a set of computer screens all day.  Not exactly my idea of a fun filled day.  Sure you make money but...meh...



Oh. The difference between a crap shoot and a known configuration involves charting and "Fibinacci" [sic] retracements.

Thanks for clearing that up. LOL!


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## JohnDB (Jan 27, 2022)

Golfing Gator said:


> Not sure I would ever do that at this point in my life.   Have a decade to accumulate as much as I can for retirement.


Currently cash and bonds are actually performing better than any sort of equity or commodity.  Especially with the strengthening dollar (took a huge jump from 95.xx to 97.07 in a matter of days) 

Bitcoin has lost half it's value from its highs.  Gold is slacking.  S&P is down 20% this month.  Russell isn't exactly doing great either.  

All this volatility is indicative of all the margin money coming out of the market.  

Let's put it this way...my dollars are currently strengthening so hard that we are actually having deflation...which is going to whiplash some serious amounts of inflation coming soon.  

It's another recession...duh! 
Except this time it's recession on top of double digit inflation.  

So soon I will be making some purchases of value stocks that pay dividends and are continuing to make profits and exceed expectations.  That's where I expect to see undervalued and unglamorized stocks that have only one way to go... especially when they get some glamour for being solid performers.


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## JohnDB (Jan 27, 2022)

Toddsterpatriot said:


> Oh. The difference between a crap shoot and a known configuration involves charting and "Fibinacci" [sic] retracements.
> 
> Thanks for clearing that up. LOL!


Well it's more than that.  A LOT more.
BUT
One eye on Congress is not a bad idea either... even though they are supposed to announce and report all stock market transactions there have been over 200 recent violations of the existing laws concerning the behavior. 

I've especially seen that the FED reserve and the chair has leaked like a strainer with what is going to be reported to Congress and during meetings. 
Long gone are the days of Greenspan and his absolute silence and lack of telegraphing anything to anyone. 

It's gotten so bad that there are rumor websites that will have the report and meeting minutes BEFORE the meetings actually happen.  (Not official but still accurate often enough to be paid attention to)


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## maybelooking (Feb 13, 2022)

Otis Mayfield said:


> Rumors that the fed will raise interest rates. Ukraine war. COVID.


Biden,  inflation,  democrats!


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