# World without Oil?



## Cain (Nov 20, 2010)

Let's say that the world is about to run out of Oil (I do not claim to know that, I am simply making a situation) what would be your major concerns?

My major concerns are, as follows:

1. I am in the military, what is going to change, in strategy in warfare? What exactly are we going to do if we cannot keep up the supply to our vehicles/technology? 

2. How will farming change? My family owns a farm, and so does every other family in the Clan (the Clan is what we call our overall family which is about 250+ people) and I am wondering: How are we going to supply tractors/combines/planters/seeders/etc? Are we going to revert back to Mule/Oxen/Donkey powered? What about Steam Powered Tractors? 

3. Will it affect political stand-points of alliances/treaties? Will people ally the strongest player that is left? Who will the strongest player be? 

4. How will I save a load of money on my mule insurance? 

Anyways, what are your concerns? Do you think this will even happen? Or is this just a false theory? 

Thanks for any discussion brought into the thread, and have a great Saturday, November 20th.

~Edit~ Also, I really hope someone can bring links to show arguments on both sides of whether this will happen or not, I'd definitely read any links with information you post. Thanks.


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## RetiredGySgt (Nov 20, 2010)

Cain said:


> Let's say that the world is about to run out of Oil (I do not claim to know that, I am simply making a situation) what would be your major concerns?
> 
> My major concerns are, as follows:
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According to the experts we ran out in the mid 80's. Also if peak oil has really happened why are oil companies STILL finding new oil deposits all over the world?


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## Cain (Nov 20, 2010)

RetiredGySgt said:


> Cain said:
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I never claimed peak oil, or any shortage of oil has happened, I simply asked what you would do if the situation did happen or information on whether it will or not. Do you have any information I could look at, that you read on? I'd really like any links to information that you read on.


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## RetiredGySgt (Nov 20, 2010)

Cain said:


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Oil is no where near close to running out. Go read the Oil Companies blogs, they are finding new oil fields all the time. Not to mention the amount of oil still in the old wells. Not to mention the amount of oil in other forms.

You have no need to worry about  a Hypothetical that simply is not going to happen any time soon. Further there are other sources of fuel. Algea can be grown rapidly and can produce ethanol. Natural gas can be converted to a fuel source. Hydrogen can be used. And of course you mentioned steam power.

Find something that might happen in your life time to worry about.


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## Cain (Nov 20, 2010)

RetiredGySgt said:


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I will try to find oil company blog websites, thanks for the reccommendation on that.

I was under the impression they had not found a way to convert algae into ethanol yet? Well, I would hope it never gets to steam power for tractors lol, although if it does I'd still work I mean, can't not work, just hope never gets that bad.

Eh, I just like to contemplate situations, even if they are non-sense to others, I respect everyone's opinion, and I respect facts, and you supplied both, thank you. Just one question I have for you: What are some somethings you think could happen to worry about? I mean, what is likely to happen in the future to worry about? No sarcasm I promise, I just want to know your opinion on the subject of future problems/issues arising.


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## Mr. H. (Nov 20, 2010)

Here's a good one: RIGZONE - Your Gateway to the Oil & Gas Industry

You can subscribe to "Today's Industry News". I've received over 300 emails in the past 14 months- nearly every one of them includes a new discovery somewhere in the world.


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## zzzz (Nov 20, 2010)

The appetite for oil receeded for a little while during the recent downturn but usage is starting to rise again. There are alternative fuels but the cost is prohibitive. The oil in the shale in the US is 1.5 trillion barrels. (5X+ SA oil reserves) 
Oil Shale Reserves

The problem has been the technology to extract it and the cost. The cheap oil is going, going, and gone soon.  The deeper we drill at sea and attempts at extracting the shale oil promises higer prices for fuel in the future. At present over 60% of the price of gas is derived from the price of crude oil. 

If the price of fuel triples the cost of shipping those computers from halfway across the planet becomes problematic. I can forsee, in this case, the very industries that went overseas, scurrying back because the transportation costs have become too much of a burden.  So in a simplistic labor model, this might be a good thing.  Of course there are other aspects that may have a negative impact too.


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## Big Fitz (Nov 20, 2010)

Cain said:


> Let's say that the world is about to run out of Oil (I do not claim to know that, I am simply making a situation) what would be your major concerns?
> 
> My major concerns are, as follows:
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Since this will not occur for the next 200-300 years at the very earliest, why worry yourself?  And besides, in about a century at the worst, we'll have a useful replacement.

Oh, and you can expect ethanol to be dead in 10 years tops.  Biodiesel has a slim shot.


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## Middleman (Nov 20, 2010)

Before oil, more people and livestock were needed to work the farms. Rural communities were more self sufficient, and not merely bedroom communities for commuters, or decaying because of lack of economic activity. People ate more regional foods, and foods from other regions were considered more exotic because transportation was more difficult.


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## KissMy (Nov 20, 2010)

zzzz said:


> If the price of fuel triples the cost of shipping those computers from halfway across the planet becomes problematic. I can forsee, in this case, the very industries that went overseas, scurrying back because the transportation costs have become too much of a burden.  So in a simplistic labor model, this might be a good thing.  Of course there are other aspects that may have a negative impact too.



Absolutely not true. It takes less fuel to ship a computer from China to your door than for you to drive to work & back.


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## KissMy (Nov 20, 2010)

Middleman said:


> Before oil, more people and livestock were needed to work the farms. Rural communities were more self sufficient, and not merely bedroom communities for commuters, or decaying because of lack of economic activity. People ate more regional foods, and foods from other regions were considered more exotic because transportation was more difficult.



High Oil Prices will not change that. It may in fact make it worse. Many of the people who live in those rural communities & commute long distances to work will be forced to leave the rural communities to live near their work.

Shopping habits will change. It takes less fuel to ship goods from anywhere on earth to your store than it takes for you to drive to the store to purchase it & take it back home.


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## mdn2000 (Nov 21, 2010)

gee, what would happen, first we would burn all those at the stake that built windmills, as soon as oil runs out it will be clear how much was wasted on windmills that cannot run Los Angeles let alone a segment of industry.


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## zzzz (Nov 21, 2010)

KissMy said:


> zzzz said:
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Yes. But without fuel you have other means to get to work and back. I suppose they could sail the computers over here, that would take more manpower than the super ships thsy have today. But like I said there are a lot of factors involved. If fuel prices skyrocketed the computers and all plastic products would increase drmatically too. Food prices too. Wages would have to increase or nobody could afford the products. If product does not sell nobody works to make them. Oil affects ever facet of our lives, not just fuel.


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## RetiredGySgt (Nov 21, 2010)

Cain said:


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A break down of society. As the earths population grows people are less and less social. More crime more chaos.


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## mdn2000 (Nov 21, 2010)

Yes everyone, ignore the premise, just run the idea around in your head, accept the idea of no oil, just accept it and now help coming up with the answer.

Oil will never run out, not in our lifetimes, not in our children's lifetime, not in the next hundred thousand years.

Its a fools errand to speculate what we would do without. Life dies with no oil, its that simple, say goodbye.


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## editec (Nov 21, 2010)

Cain said:


> Let's say that the world is about to run out of Oil (I do not claim to know that, I am simply making a situation) what would be your major concerns?
> 
> My major concerns are, as follows:
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The way this will come to us is NOT as an immediate lack of oil.

It will come at us as an increasing expensive over time.

Thus as the cost of energy rises, so too does the cost of modern life generally.

So the things you ought to be worrying about are:

1. Economic stagnation

2. Rampant increases in the cost of food, heating, and anything involving transportation costs (read everything)

If we cannot solve this problem? If we do not find efficient and cheap energy sources to replace petroleum?

You can expect massive dieoffs of much of the world's population.

Yeah, that's right...without cheap enough energy the world's economy will collapse.

My advise?

Stick to your farm and learn to farm with non-mechanized tools, just in case things get weird.


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## KissMy (Nov 21, 2010)

zzzz said:


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A Chinese worker lives in a dorm at their work place. The average China worker consumes less than 2 barrels of oil per year to live & make products for Americans. The average American consumes over 20 barrels of oil per year to live & make products. It is much, much, much more fuel efficient to make products in China & ship them to American homes than it is for Americans to go to work & buy their own goods.

A ocean cargo ship gets over 1,100 net freight ton miles per gallon.
A barge gets 575 net freight ton miles per gallon.
A train gets 425 net freight ton miles per gallon.
A semi truck gets 170 net freight ton miles per gallon.
A UPS delivery truck gets 15 net freight ton miles per gallon.
A Jet plane gets 7 net freight ton miles per gallon.
A fully loaded 1/2 ton pick-up truck gets 9 net freight ton miles per gallon.
An average 20-lbs of goods per car trip to the store empty one way gets 0.125 net freight ton miles per gallon.


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## Mr. H. (Nov 21, 2010)

I'll remember to take my frieght train to the grocery next time.


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## KissMy (Nov 21, 2010)

We will have to order on-line & have it shipped to our door UPS
.  .  .  . OR
This is what people will be taking to the store.





This is what people will be riding to work.


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## Cain (Nov 21, 2010)

editec said:


> Cain said:
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Well, see that's a great idea, but I already signed my military contract, but I am glad I learned stuff as a kid that most didn't. Really makes me feel safer knowing I know a trade that will come in handy if oil affects the world so much. Also, a lot of people don't believe it but most small farmers (like my one family) use non-mechanized, like, we have a steel plow that is made for mules to pull still lol. Grandpa collected so much stuff from the "old days". Pretty cool to be honest. 

Thanks for the information, and I can see your point on the things to come. I really hope it doesn't get that bad, but if it does, I will do my best to help people.



Big Fitz said:


> Cain said:
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I am trying to see other people's opinions on whether it will happen 2-3 hundred years for 50 years, so on and so on. I can see the general opinion, and what facts I have seen seem to support is, it is not going to happen in quite a while, although their will be effects of oil prices going up that I fear.


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## KissMy (Nov 21, 2010)

We have a 1,000 acre farm. We do not till so there is no need for a cultivator, disk, plow or horse. The only equipment needed is a mid size tractor, planter, sprayer, combine & trucks. Our entire operation uses around 2,000 gallons of fuel per year. It can be ran on bio-fuel or ethanol grown on the farm & still feed the same amount of livestock & people.


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## Cain (Nov 21, 2010)

@KissMy: I do not understand how you can run your tractor on Bio-Diesel off of your land and still have enough land to feed the livestock/people, I mean, from what I've read on most of the websites, BioDiesel, like Ethanol is inefficient use of corn/wheat/switchgrass etc?

Also, what do you guys grow? What size tractor do yall use? We only use a f-5000 on our's, its a 65 model, only thing I hate about it is the left headlight is busted and it sucks gas terribly.


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## glew (Nov 21, 2010)

I would head west...round up as many horses as possible...and try to corner that market   Then I would head out to sea...kill as many whales as possible and corner the lamp oil market.  With all my new found cash, I would buy up most of the southwest and drive cattle back and forth to wherever people wanted a steak.  When I retired, I would invest in a buggy whip concern (huge demand re-emerges after 100 years) and watch even more cash come in....Is this a serious question?  hahaha....Because if you libs ever read a history book you would know what life is going to be like if oil were to "suddenly" disappear.  I especially like that lib movie where all the Mexicans "suddenly" disappear...Supposedly, us fat lazy Americans wouldn't be able to survive without cheap labor...That had to have been the most racist movie ever made...Or at least the 30 minutes of it that I watched


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## KissMy (Nov 21, 2010)

Cain said:


> @KissMy: I do not understand how you can run your tractor on Bio-Diesel off of your land and still have enough land to feed the livestock/people, I mean, from what I've read on most of the websites, BioDiesel, like Ethanol is inefficient use of corn/wheat/switchgrass etc?
> 
> Also, what do you guys grow? What size tractor do yall use? We only use a f-5000 on our's, its a 65 model, only thing I hate about it is the left headlight is busted and it sucks gas terribly.



You can't believe what you read. I used to own parts of Bio-Fuel & Ethanol plants. The USA raised the about same amount of corn & soy before these Bio-Fuel & Ethanol plants were installed as they do now. We also export about the same amount of feed after these plants went into production.

When grains are processed in these plants for fuels the bi-product is animal feed with the same nutritional protein value as the grain that they ate before. Each bushel will lose some weight & volume from the oil & starch that was converted to fuel but all the protein & feed value remains. It is actually beneficial to the animals to not eat all that starch & fat that caused methane gas in cows upsetting their digestion & causing them to burp & fart methane gas that is 15 times worse for the environment than CO2.

Ethanol also replaced the toxic pollutant MTBE in gasoline. The anti ethanol people just calculate that all the corn is raised just to be turned into ethanol so the energy returned on the energy invested is not very positive. The fact is we are already raising this for feed anyhow, now we just squeeze some fuel out of it using very little energy.

Fact is I can farm with about 3 gallons of fuel per acre. That acre will yield well over 100 bushel of corn. That corn will yield 300 gallon of ethanol per acre. That equals about a 100 gallons of fuel return for every gallon of fuel used to raise the corn.


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## Cain (Nov 21, 2010)

KissMy said:


> Cain said:
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> > @KissMy: I do not understand how you can run your tractor on Bio-Diesel off of your land and still have enough land to feed the livestock/people, I mean, from what I've read on most of the websites, BioDiesel, like Ethanol is inefficient use of corn/wheat/switchgrass etc?
> ...



Well, I am very glad to hear this, at least Biodisel & Ethanol aren't really hurting the food source as bad as I read it was. I am glad to have met you on this topic.


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## mdn2000 (Nov 21, 2010)

KissMy said:


> Cain said:
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You cannot farm with 3 gallons of fuel per acre for corn, as near as I can tell its closer to 8 gallons, which seems tiny. 

http://www.todaystractors.com/articles/art1.html 

Plowing                      1.10     gallons of diesel
Disc harrow                  .45 
cultivator                      .60
planter                         .50
Anhydrous applicator     .65
Combine and Milo        1.60

That is a good 6 gallons per acre, most farms will cultivate or harrow more than once a season, which I eliminated just to keep the figure on the low end.

We must add the nitrogen fertilizer which is 40% of the energy per acre, that brings the total to 8 gallons of diesel per acre.

Transport to the refinery I ignored.

I also ignored processing the ethanol at the refinery.

Add the 40% loss of energy to the equation and we can see why the ethanol industry is heavily subsidized.


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## Cain (Nov 21, 2010)

mdn2000 said:


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Where did you find the 1.10 gallons of diesel for one acre? I am sad to admit it's probably worse for my tractor in gas lol.


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## KissMy (Nov 21, 2010)

mdn2000 said:


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In a previous post I said it was a *NO-TILL Farm*. That means NO Plow, Disc, Harrow, Cultivator or Anhydrous Applicator.

No-Till Planter  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  0.35
Herbicide Spraying  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 0.10
Fertilizer Spraying.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  0.10
Combine  1.1 beans & 1.6 corn.  1.35
Trucking  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  0.50


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## Mr. H. (Nov 21, 2010)

KissMy said:


> Cain said:
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As I recall, the MTBE issue was one of product storage and not of point-source or end-use concerns. 

The reason Ethanol "won out" over MTBE is that the former is made from corn and the latter from hydrocarbons. It was Big Ag's finest hour, a lobbying coup, and one of the biggest bullshit hoodwinked pranks ever played on the American public.


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## RoccoR (Nov 21, 2010)

et al,

I thought that most of this has been solved, and we've entered a new era of fuel generation.



			
				J. Craig Venter said:
			
		

> He has already signed a contract with a major pharmaceutical firm to try and do it. BP is funding research to experiment with underground microbes that feed off coal and produce natural gas. And Exxon Mobil has committed $300 million to Venter's company to genetically enhance an algae that lives off carbon dioxide and produces an oil that can be refined into gasoline.
> 
> "So you're trying to cut down on CO2 in the atmosphere, which people believe causes global warming and also create a fuel?" Kroft asked, while touring Venter&#8217;s greenhouse, which is filled with bags of algae under study.
> 
> "The question is on the scale that it needs to be done at. You know? Facilities the size of San Francisco," Venter said.


*(COMMENT)*

This is the  Man Whose Team Mapped The Human Genome And Created "Synthetic Life."  I think that this has some promise.

Undoubtedly, Congress and the Green Movement will find something wrong with this solution; but I think it is a 21st Century solution.

Most Respectfully,
R


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## mdn2000 (Nov 22, 2010)

Cain said:


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I shopped around a bit, seems awful low but I guess you just about idle in the field.

Farm Tractors - Today's Tractors - Reading Room

Estimating Farm Fuel Requirements


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## mdn2000 (Nov 22, 2010)

KissMy said:


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Still your not accounting for lower crop yields with no-till farming.

Also you have not accounted for the energy required for fertilizers.

No till farming for corn, never heard of that, where is it being done.


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## mdn2000 (Nov 22, 2010)

Mr. H. said:


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Nice post, can you link to your source.

MTBE, Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether, derived from Methanol, which is derived from Methane, which is separated from Natural gas.

MTBE does not come from Oil. 

MTBE in California was banned for a number of reasons to include leaking storage tanks. MTBE found its way into the water supply, through Jet skiing, boating, even cars exhaust which got washed into the environment.
MTBE did not reduce emissions, just created different emissions.
MTBE lowered milage (as ethanol does) 
MTBE was expensive, (as ethanol is)

MTBE is not a hydrocarbon although it does pollute the snow.








> Given detectable atmospheric levels of MTBE, the Lake Tahoe Basin could
> have detectable amounts of MTBE in precipitation, due to the typically cool air
> temperatures in the Lake Tahoe Basin (elevation 6,225 ft at lake level). Colder air
> temperature markedly increases partitioning of MTBE from air to the aqueous phase
> ...


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## KissMy (Nov 22, 2010)

mdn2000 said:


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I have been No-Till farming corn & soy for 20 years now. The yields are now the same as or beating the tilling farmers. Their fertile tilled soils have eroded away while mine has built up. I kick their ass now. Over 25% of farms are now No-Till.

No-Till has reduced my soil erosion by 95 percent. With no erosion there is 80 percent less herbicide, insecticide & fertilizer run-off from the fields preventing pollution of waterways, rivers & Gulf of Mexico. *No-Till alone reduced the amount of herbicides, insecticide & fertilizer that I apply by 80%.* Using bio-tech seeds that resist insects I further cut my use of insecticides. These glyphosate resistant seeds also cut my herbicide use to glyphosate only. *These seeds also further reduce fertilizer demand.* GPS yield monitor, soil analysis & *fertilizer sprayer applicator also only applies fertilizer to the spots of the field that need fertilizer*. I bet I use 93% less fertilizer than conventional farmers. Monsanto is now perfecting a new bio-tech seed corn that will cut my fertilizer use to zero & save me a sprayer applicator trip over the field.

Having Ethanol & Bio-Fuel plants located all over the rural areas has reduced farmers grain & feed trucking distances & fuel use. With these new farming technologies & reduced transportation the *total fuel use is under $2.5 gallons per acre.*


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## FireFly (Nov 22, 2010)

zzzz said:


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Those massive cargo ships can convert to nuclear just like the military ships. So products can still arrive without oil.


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## Mr. H. (Nov 22, 2010)

mdn2000 said:


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Nope, no source to quote. Just my own alcohol induced rant. 
Didn't say MTBE came from oil, but hydrocarbons (natural gas). 

Lake Tahoe had similar issues w/re: ethanol in the water. I think they banned it's use also. 

And as you reaffirm, MTBE's drawbacks were mainly as a result of it breaching containment. 

Which reminds me of another story - there was a huge hog shit lagoon that burst, contaminating acres and acres of farmground and ultimately migrating into fresh water zones. Who was to blame? Not the people that produced the waste in the first place- but the folks that owned the containment pond. - this is the complete opposite of how the MTBE issue was handled. Agriculture seems to have its own set of rules. And when the rules are broken, well the rules just get re-written.


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## uscitizen (Nov 22, 2010)

FireFly said:


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We mine uranium, iron, coal without oil/fuel?


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## Samson (Nov 22, 2010)

uscitizen said:


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Yes, but what is the point? That a truck with a deisel engine cannot run on electricity?

What would we do without


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## KissMy (Nov 22, 2010)

Big Brutus Electric Mining Shovel
It is 160 feet high and weighs 11 million pounds. The bucket holds 90 cubic yards or 150 tons. Maximum speed is 0.22 MPH. It cost $6.5 million in 1962.


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## Cain (Nov 22, 2010)

mdn2000 said:


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...No need to insult me because I admitted my tractor is very low in fuel efficiency buddy.

I do not trust a website to tell me what my tractor gets in gas per acre when my tractor is 45 years old, not exactly up to date, or even close to the tractors made now.


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