# When will the suckewrs rally pop?



## Mr.Fitnah (Aug 19, 2009)

I say  end of Oct. 
Any takers?


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## auditor0007 (Aug 20, 2009)

Very soon I would imagine.  I think the thing driving this is the fact that there is still money sitting on the sidelines and those holding it have no idea what to do with it.  The idea of leaving it under their mattress isn't very appealing although, as before, they may find that would have been the best place for it.


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## Mr.Fitnah (Aug 20, 2009)

Dont forget beany babies  and unopened BB mystery 10 pack that could have a Marlin Sphincter rookie  card inside.


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## Toro (Aug 20, 2009)

Hard to say.

Normally, one would expect a correction about now.  However, the rally off the 38 low was 78% and the rally off the 74 low was 67%, even though the market then went sideways for several years thereafter.  We've bounced about 50% since the March low.


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## Mr.Fitnah (Aug 20, 2009)

Thats a dead cat bounce.


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## Toro (Aug 20, 2009)

If stocks rise 65% then move sideways for five years, that is about a 10% per year return over 6 years.  On average, stocks return about 10% per year.

Doesn't mean that will happen.  We could fall hard.  I don't know.


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## Mr.Fitnah (Aug 20, 2009)

This rally is built on bail outs and Obamanomics. The Chickens will soon come home to roost.
It will be ugly and long, the sooner it hits the better, if these policies continue, I  just cant imagine.


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## Toro (Aug 20, 2009)

Why?  Stocks in "socialist" countries did better than in the US this decade.


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## Paulie (Aug 20, 2009)

As long as the Fed shows us no signs of tightening their policy, equities will remain around these levels or higher, in my opinion.

I imagine that most investors are betting on inflation...I know _I_ am.

There's ZERO reason to believe Bernanke has a viable exit strategy.  History tells us he won't.

This doesn't mean you shouldn't have a percentage of your savings in cash positions, though.


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## Terral (Sep 9, 2009)

Hi Mr. Fitnah:



Mr.Fitnah said:


> *When will the suckers rally pop?
> 
> *I say  end of Oct. Any takers?



To gain a good overview of what is really going on with the markets, then you must take a few giant steps back and look at the big picture:

1. Nothing is being done to stop record 'outsourcing' of JOBS overseas to foreign markets and the offshoring of the U.S. Manufacturing Base.

2. Nothing is being done to stop the importation of Foreign Nationals (legal and illegal) into the U.S. Labor Markets, which is destroying the 'Consumer Base' for all of your goods and services. 

3. Twenty to Thirty MILLION Illegal Alien Foreign Nationals are 'displacing' U.S. Workers from JOBS at every level of the local JOB markets with the U.S. Govt being the biggest employer of Illegal Aliens in the USA. 

These three points explain why the local markets are experiencing 'deflation' in the housing markets that forces house prices DOWN with every passing month. However, then we must back up and look at the 'inflationary' pressure cased by all of the 'spend and tax and spend' going on with these Bailout/Stimulus Plans that inject far too much 'borrowed' money into the economic system:

1. Injecting all of this borrowed money into the system causes opposing 'inflationary stress' upon the broader economic system, which means the dollars in your pocket are worth 'less' with every passing day. 

2. Cap and Tax (and similar) Legislation creates a 'higher cost' for every American Company that reduces your ability to compete in a Global Market where foreign companies are not forced to produce goods and services under the same rules; which forces more and more JOBS overseas. Raising your prices to cover these new taxes (higher costs) creates the 'inflationary' stress that adds to the problem of the Stimulus/Bailout Bubble that is about to burst.

3. Obamacare adds even more 'costs' to the American Cost of doing business, which is yet another cause of inflationary stress that is reducing your ability to compete with China, India and other countries living under a completely different set of rules. 

4. Bailing out the Banks, Insurance Companies, Automakers, States, Etc., is forcing the privately-owned FED to print up Trillions and Trillions of dollars out of thin air, which again reduces the value of each dollar in your pocket; 'and' all of that money was handed out with 'interest' attached. 

Boil everything down and perhaps you will realize that the value of the U.S. Dollar MUST go down, which means you need 'more' dollars to buy the same goods, services and commodities with every passing day. The stock markets are going up, because the *'value of the dollars' *used to buy those stocks *is GOING DOWN*. This means that the Dow Jones can go up to 15,000, but if the money is worth 1/3 of the value from two years ago, then the value is actually "5000" in real dollars. 

Gold can go to 3000 dollars, but if the dollar is worth only 1/3 from two years ago, then the real value of gold is approaching 1000 dollars. The owners of the FED (Gary Allen's book = my sig) are devaluing your U.S. Dollar, which is causing oil, gold and the stock markets to go 'up,' when in reality the real value is going DOWN. The False Flag Recovery will continue until the deflationary pressures send house prices into the ground 'and' the day traders (like China, Russian and the Arabs) wake the hell up and realize that the dollar is worth nothing. Yes, it will take 10,000 dollars to buy one share of General Motors, but that will be the price of one loaf of bread. :0)

Dr. Bill Deagle Explains In Recent Edition Of The Nutrimedical Report

Most of what I say has very little meaning to most of you, because the USA is worthy of utter destruction (my Topic) and the cattle are already heading for the slaughterhouse (my Swine Flu Topic) . . . 

GL,

Terral


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## Paulie (Sep 9, 2009)

How in the world could anyone predict a market crash in the face of so much liquidity?

As that liquidity enters the economy, it's going to chase assets like equities, commodities, housing, etc.

You don't get market crashes during inflationary periods, _least_ of all ones like we're moving towards now.  

Look at the monetary base and tell me how the hell there could be a market crash, unless the Fed decides to start extinguishing money _really fast_?


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## Mr.Fitnah (Sep 9, 2009)

Paulie said:


> As long as the Fed shows us no signs of tightening their policy, equities will remain around these levels or higher, in my opinion.
> 
> I imagine that most investors are betting on inflation...I know _I_ am.
> 
> ...


 putting  everything in food guns and ammo at this point makes more sense than cash.


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## Mr.Fitnah (Sep 9, 2009)

Terral said:


> Hi Mr. Fitnah:


Sorry Terrel, I don't  talk to 911 kooks, Dont know why  you where not on ignore, have a nice death.


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## Paulie (Sep 9, 2009)

Mr.Fitnah said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> > As long as the Fed shows us no signs of tightening their policy, equities will remain around these levels or higher, in my opinion.
> ...



Putting "everything" into just those few positions makes no sense at ALL.


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## Mr.Fitnah (Sep 9, 2009)

Paulie said:


> Mr.Fitnah said:
> 
> 
> > Paulie said:
> ...


Yeah , extra cash so to speak .


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## Zander (Sep 10, 2009)

I think we are entering a strong deflationary period. Stocks , commodities and real estate are going to fall and fall hard. When every idiot on the internet and their retarded cousin is calling for "hyperinflation"  and saying "the worst is behind us" you can bet your last dollar it will go the other way. Sell all stock positions today, liquidate real estate asap, put the money in T-bills and in a short period of time you can buy back your stocks (and real estate) at 1/2 the price they are currently. After the wave of deflation hits, we might experience the hyperinflation that your retarded cousin is blathering on about, but not until we deal with deflation.  

If I am wrong you'll make a little less money, but if I am right you can make a bloody fortune.


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## Mr.Fitnah (Sep 10, 2009)

Hyper inflation is coming   the worst is coming you cant imagine  how bad.


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## Paulie (Sep 11, 2009)

Yeah, because we should all make our financial decisions based on what "every idiot is saying on the internet".  

Zander, humor us.  Rather than use the fact that people are saying something on the internet, provide solid examples of why massive deflation is coming, and why stocks are going to retreat 50% from here.


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## Toro (Sep 11, 2009)

Mr.Fitnah said:


> Hyper inflation is coming   the worst is coming you cant imagine  how bad.



Don't be silly.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/economy/79488-hyperinflation-not-in-america.html

But I think gold is going to new highs, probably significantly higher than today.

And the SP500 looks like its marching up to 1100.


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## Mr.Fitnah (Sep 11, 2009)

Toro said:


> Mr.Fitnah said:
> 
> 
> > Hyper inflation is coming   the worst is coming you cant imagine  how bad.
> ...


Hope  for the best prepare  for the worst.
Believe what you wish.


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## Valerie (Sep 11, 2009)

Boy, do I feel like SUCH a sucker for being up over twenty five grand since march.


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## Mr.Fitnah (Sep 11, 2009)

The USA has  devalued  the dollar so much, it may have to repudiate  the debt
The interest in  Buying our debt is waining and has been for some time.

We cannot borrow at affordable rates  or inflate  out of  this problem in any controlled manner.
Result global financial collapse.
Which   could be the only thing to shrink the size of the federal government.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzmYI_4XCbM&feature=player_embedded]YouTube - Hyperinflation Nation Part 1/3[/ame]


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## Paulie (Sep 11, 2009)

Fitnah, the value of the Dollar isn't even as low as it was leading into the crash last year.

I believe the USD index was somewhere in the 60's at that point.

Not that it won't still go lower, but that favors equities and makes it pretty hard to facilitate a market crash.

I'm certainly not one to defend the fiscal and monetary policies of this government whether it's democrat OR republican, but at the end of the day, we're still the world's lone super power.


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## Toro (Sep 11, 2009)

Mr.Fitnah said:


> The USA has  devalued  the dollar so much, it may have to repudiate  the debt
> The interest in  Buying our debt is waining and has been for some time.
> 
> We cannot borrow at affordable rates  or inflate  out of  this problem in any controlled manner.
> ...



I don't want to minimize the situation.  I think the government is creating the conditions for other bubbles in the economy which will create massive distortions and probably pain down the road.  I own a lot of gold.

However, you are simply flat out wrong with your facts.  First, the US government has had no problem selling its debt.



> The U.S. was able to sell another large amount of debt at low rates this week, as investors flocked to Treasurys to hedge against the risks of a slow economic recovery.
> 
> Foreign investors bought Treasurys this week even as the dollar sustained losses against a broad range of currencies, a move that erodes the investment value of holding U.S. government debt. Above, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, with the Washington Monument in the background, in Washington, D.C., is pictured last month.
> 
> ...



U.S. Debt Sales Chug Along - WSJ.com

And we can borrow cheaply.  Right across the curve, interest rates are down.












At some point, we may have trouble borrowing and interest rates may be higher, but that is certainly not happening now.


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## Valerie (Sep 11, 2009)

Toro said:


> I own a lot of gold.




Nice!  Gold hit an all time high today!

*GOLD 100 OZ FUTR  (USD/t oz.)	1006.400	*
Bloomberg.com: Commodity Futures

GCU09.CMX: Summary for Gold Sep 09 - Yahoo! Finance




> *Gold hits record high*
> The precious metal, considered a safe haven, surges above $1,000 as the dollar plunged to a one-year low.
> 
> Gold settles at record high of $1,006.40 - Sep. 11, 2009


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## Toro (Sep 11, 2009)

Thanks.

I'm betting it goes much higher though.


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## Valerie (Sep 11, 2009)

Toro said:


> Thanks.
> 
> I'm betting it goes much higher though.




From the article above:



> "This is new significant level for the dollar, said Kathy Lien, director of currency research for Global Forex Trading. "The dollar hasn't been this weak since September 2008."
> 
> In a jittery economy, commodities priced in dollars, such as gold, are perceived as "safe" investments and typically gain ground when the greenback wanes.
> 
> ...


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## Valerie (Sep 11, 2009)

Toro said:


> At some point, we may have trouble borrowing and interest rates may be higher, but that is certainly not happening now.




I think this is what should happen next.  Borrowing has been tapped and will become tighter and savings should yield higher rates.  Higher yields should draw more money into bank CDs and treasury bonds.


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## Zander (Sep 11, 2009)

The collective S&P 500 companies LOST money for the year. That has never happened in the history of the S&P500. What is propelling stock valuations if there are no earnings? How long will corporations pay dividends when they have no earnings? Personally, the technical charts show that the dollar is forming a bottom and will rise. Commodities, Real Estate, and Stocks will all fall precipitously.  Take your money off the table while you can. You've been granted a great gift with the dead cat bounce. The smart money is selling......Good luck!


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## Toro (Sep 11, 2009)

Actually, that is almost true but not quite.

Here is the official data from S&P.  

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS

Earnings fell to $6.86 at the lowest point at the end of 2008.  At one point in time, analysts' forecasts were such that earnings would have been negative had earnings not come in better than expected.  Expectations were for negative earnings but it did not happen.

Stocks are being propelled by a recovery in earnings, and the fact that Depression and the collapse of the economy are off the table.


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## Zander (Sep 11, 2009)

Toro said:


> Actually, that is almost true but not quite.
> 
> Here is the official data from S&P.
> 
> ...


 I stand corrected, last QTR according to GAAP  they lost money. Forgive me if I am still bearish as hell -   The P/E ratio of the SP500  is now 130 x earnings.  That is overvalued by any standard. 

Personally,  I am sitting tight in cash and t-bills.  AFAIC, Deflation is mandatory. Every time any country has a massive expansion of CREDIT, the result is deflation.  Deflation is a contraction of money and CREDIT in relation to available goods.  The US has experienced two major deflationary periods (1835-42 and 1929-1932) both followed a period of substantial credit expansion.   Banks currently, in aggregate,  have loaned out 25% more than they have in deposits.  Do the math. 

Since no one cannot predict the exact moment that deflationary pressures will overwhelm the markets, I am content to ride it out, accumulating cash in the safest banks I can find.  (some banks actually have reserves, go figure!)  I have liquidated all of my stocks and mutual funds as of August 28th. I have never been more bearish in my life, and I am an optimist!  If I am wrong I'll make a little less money. I can live with that.


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## Toro (Sep 11, 2009)

There was also deflation off and on from 1873 through 1893.

I don't think we're going to get deflation.  I think that the Fed is massively inflating the money supply to counteract the deflationary forces in the economy.  That is the one big difference between now and the other deflationary periods in this country's history.  I think the prices of gold, oil and other commodities are telling you that.

We may get deflation down the road but I think it is off the table for the next few years.  I think the SP500 gets into the 1100s, perhaps going as high as 1200 before rolling over.

And gold?  No idea.  Probably $1500-$2000 when its all said and done, though $5000 is not out of the realm of possibility.


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## Zander (Sep 11, 2009)

Toro said:


> There was also deflation off and on from 1873 through 1893.
> 
> I don't think we're going to get deflation.  I think that the Fed is massively inflating the money supply to counteract the deflationary forces in the economy.  That is the one big difference between now and the other deflationary periods in this country's history.  I think the prices of gold, oil and other commodities are telling you that.
> 
> ...


You can print all the money you want, it is CREDIT deflation that you are not factoring in.  The fed can't monetize the debt fast enough to counteract the inevitable credit contraction.  Banks are overextended and the "over leverage" that made them fortunes in the last 10 years is now destroying them just as quickly.  Commercial real estate is experiencing the largest drop in history and the effects on valuations won't show up for a while. When they do, REITS will collapse along with a few  large Banks (watch out for Wells Fargo/Wachovia and Chase- they are really weak!) and the psychology of the consumer will change from the "green shoots" fairy tale that Bernanke/Geithner/et.al  have spoon fed them to"brown manure" reality in a heartbeat.


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## Mr.Fitnah (Sep 11, 2009)

Paulie said:


> Fitnah, the value of the Dollar isn't even as low as it was leading into the crash last year.
> 
> I believe the USD index was somewhere in the 60's at that point.
> 
> ...



I dont see how the  dollar is not more devalued now  wit the printing press running  full time and expenditure  surpassing   the entire  amount of actual printed monies.


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## Toro (Sep 11, 2009)

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> > There was also deflation off and on from 1873 through 1893.
> ...



That's possible, but there is nothing stopping the Fed from expanding its balance sheet from $2 trillion to $4-$5 trillion.  That would easily cover the coming commercial RE and prime loan losses ahead.  

As for commercial real estate, I think everyone knows about it.  Prime mortgage defaults are going to rise too.  However, there is something like $800 billion in excess reserves on bank balance sheets, which should be enough to cover most of the losses.






If the economy is going to have another leg down, there has to be something bigger than what is already out there, probably something people don't know about.  That may happen down the road as the unintended effects take hold from the enormous expansion of the liquidity in the system, but I don't think that is on the immediate horizon.


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## Toro (Sep 11, 2009)

Mr.Fitnah said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> > Fitnah, the value of the Dollar isn't even as low as it was leading into the crash last year.
> ...



The dollar may hit a new low but the dollar hit at least a 40-year low under Bush.


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## Mr.Fitnah (Sep 11, 2009)

Ok,  well im done with you  on this thread hack.


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## Zander (Sep 11, 2009)

Mr.Fitnah said:


> Paulie said:
> 
> 
> > Fitnah, the value of the Dollar isn't even as low as it was leading into the crash last year.
> ...


Are you familiar with the term Con-game? The "Con" is short for CONFIDENCE.  Our entire monetary system relies on confidence.  Ask yourself what is backing the dollar?  Congress says  the dollar is "legally" 1/42.22 of an ounce of gold. But it's not, and everyone knows that is bogus. If you bring a dollar to the treasury you will not collect any tangible good, much less 1/42.22 of an ounce of gold. You will be sent home.   If you bring a dollar to the market you can still buy goods with it because the govt says (by fiat) that it is money and because of its long history of use has lulled people into accepting it as such. 

So what is a dollar?  The dollar is backed primarily by Govt Bonds, which are promises to pay dollars. Therefore today, the dollar is a promise to pay an identical promise. What is the nature of each promise? If the treasuery will not give you anything tangible for your dollar,  then the dollar is a promise to pay NOTHING! The Treasury should have no problem keeping this promise...lol...


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## Mr.Fitnah (Sep 11, 2009)

Repudiating the debt is the  next step after crushing the  dollar to  these lows.


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## DavidS (Sep 12, 2009)

Terral said:


> Hi Mr. Fitnah:
> 
> GL,
> 
> Terral



Ah, proof that the crazies don't have to be out just during a full moon!


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## DavidS (Sep 12, 2009)

Please remember, folks, this recession was not predicted to end until July 2010. We still have almost another year to go. A recession is like a bullet wound -- quick to hurt, slow to heal. This will be considered The Great Recession, I believe.

We certainly could close the year off around 7 or 8,000 -- which I actually wouldn't mind seeing. Unfortunately, I don't believe the year will end anything under 10,000 -- I think we're headed there, maybe not as quickly as I first thought, but I think once we hit 10,000, that's the sky, that's the limit and we're done after that for at least another year. I don't think stocks will really start climbing until 2011. The most recent recession we can compare this one to is the one under Reagan in 1982. By 1983, things had started to improve and by 1984, the economy was humming along quite nicely. I think that our economy will move along at the same pace... every generation or so, we get a big correction... and there's nothing wrong with that. What's bothering me the most is that our economy is dependent upon bubbles... dotcom, housing, oil, gold, technology... the 2000s really didn't see anything as far as new innovation is concerned that would allow us to enter a bubble. Thus the economy sluggishly went along..


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## Toro (Sep 12, 2009)

Mr.Fitnah said:


> Ok,  well im done with you  on this thread hack.



Of course you are.  Facts are a bitch to partisan ideologues.

Now, if you want to play with the adults...

Barchart.com - Charts - $DXY DOLLAR INDEX INDEX


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## Mr.Fitnah (Nov 2, 2009)

I have missed my date .
I glad I hope I have several years to  consolodate
'I am still preparing for a complete weimar republic  type meltdown that will collapse the global economy  which will of course be solved by some global type government and economy .
If you think the  financial problems are over , good for you  God be with you.


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## Toro (Nov 2, 2009)

I don't think the financial problems are over, but I don't think a repeat of Weimer Germany is going to happen either.


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## Mr.Fitnah (Dec 19, 2009)

I was  clearly wrong about the oct date.
 I do not see a very good time financially in the near future the  end is very near.


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## Mr.Fitnah (Dec 20, 2009)

Published on ShanghaiDaily.com (Shanghai Daily | ä¸æµ·æ¥æ¥ -- English Window to China News)
Harder to buy US Treasuries -- Shanghai Daily | ä¸æµ·æ¥æ¥ -- English Window to China New


Harder to buy US Treasuries
Created: 2009-12-18 0:13:35
Author:Zhou Xin and Jason Subler


IT is getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US's shrinking current-account gap is reducing supply of dollars overseas, a Chinese central bank official said yesterday.

The comments by Zhu Min, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, referred to the overall situation globally, not specifically to China, the biggest foreign holder of US government bonds.

Chinese officials generally are very careful about commenting on the dollar and Treasuries, given that so much of its US$2.3 trillion reserves are tied to their value, and markets always watch any such comments closely for signs of any shift in how it manages its assets.

China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange reaffirmed this month that the dollar stands secure as the anchor of the currency reserves it manages, even as the country seeks to diversify its investments.

In a discussion on the global role of the dollar, Zhu told an academic audience that it was inevitable that the dollar would continue to fall in value because Washington continued to issue more Treasuries to finance its deficit spending.

He then addressed where demand for that debt would come from.

"The United States cannot force foreign governments to increase their holdings of Treasuries," Zhu said, according to an audio recording of his remarks. "Double the holdings? It is definitely impossible."

"The US current account deficit is falling as residents' savings increase, so its trade turnover is falling, which means the US is supplying fewer dollars to the rest of the world," he added. "The world does not have so much money to buy more US Treasuries."

China continues to see its foreign exchange reserves grow, albeit at a slower pace than in past years, due to a large trade surplus and inflows of foreign investment. They stood at US$2.3 trillion at the end of September.


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