# Nate Silver: Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win

Right now, Clinton is over the line by exactly one state. As of this writing, that state — what we also call the tipping-point state — is New Hampshire. But a group of states are closely lumped together, and Pennsylvania, Colorado and Wisconsin have all taken their turn as the tipping-point state in recent weeks.

But that exactitude is a big assumption, especially given that we still have 47 days — and three debates — to go until the election. Even if it were Election Day, in fact, it would be unrealistic to expect such high precision. State polling averages have been pretty good for the past few presidential elections, but “pretty good” still provides for plenty of times when they miss by 2 to 4 percentage points. If one of those misses is in Trump’s favor in Pennsylvania or New Hampshire or Colorado, especially if the race shifts a bit further to Trump overall, then Clinton will go from being in a pretty good Electoral College position to having a total mess on her hands.

**************************

This has been fun so far.

To bad we actually have to elect one of these clowns.


----------



## Mac1958 (Sep 23, 2016)

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue. 

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.  
.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

Mac1958 said:


> That's all that matters.
> 
> Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.
> 
> ...



I agree.

And I really do think that people can swing on this one a lot easier.

There are a lot of people fed up with these two and the whole thing.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

Great....off in the wilderness.


----------



## Mac1958 (Sep 23, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > That's all that matters.
> ...


Yeah, great point.  

I do think there's possibility of a nihilist vote for Trump:  "Aw, fuck it, let's see what happens".

What a terrible choice.
.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

Mac1958 said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...



What have you got to lose ?

Oh brother.........................


----------



## Mac1958 (Sep 23, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > Sun Devil 92 said:
> ...


The one phrase that makes me the most nervous is "well, it can't get any worse!"

Yeah.  It can.  It really can.
.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

Mac1958 said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...



I think that happens either way.


----------



## SassyIrishLass (Sep 23, 2016)

Hillary is decaying before your very eyes...good grief wake up


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

SassyIrishLass said:


> Hillary is decaying before your very eyes...good grief wake up



What do you mean ?

Physically ?


----------



## SassyIrishLass (Sep 23, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> SassyIrishLass said:
> 
> 
> > Hillary is decaying before your very eyes...good grief wake up
> ...



Yeah...her morals died decades ago....that and she has never accomplished a damn thing. But hey she has a vag and the (D)....right?


----------



## martybegan (Sep 23, 2016)

Mac1958 said:


> That's all that matters.
> 
> Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.
> 
> ...



I'm still amazed it is even this close. 

The thing is Trump is cleaning up his campaign, and Hillary is plodding along with the same stuff she started out with. 

The wild card to me is this racial stuff going on now, I'm not sure if its going to make blacks come out for hillary, make them shift to Trump due to dems being in control of the localities, or make them wait out this election in disgust.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

SassyIrishLass said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > SassyIrishLass said:
> ...



You are correct.

She's accomplished a great deal.

I can't think of anyone who has been so disliked for so long and stayed around.

Some see her as a savior.

I see her as a disaster.

The problem is the alternative.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

martybegan said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > That's all that matters.
> ...



Real Clear has her back up to a 3 point lead.

She was at 0.9 at one point.


----------



## SassyIrishLass (Sep 23, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> SassyIrishLass said:
> 
> 
> > Sun Devil 92 said:
> ...



She'll be dead in less than four years.


----------



## SassyIrishLass (Sep 23, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> martybegan said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...



RealClear is moving polls in and out of their averages...you can't depend on the average because it's not an average of the same polls each week


----------



## Iceweasel (Sep 23, 2016)

That recent video of her asking why she shouldn't be 50 points ahead was creepy. That's her real personality. She can't hide it forever. 

That said I am sick of hearing about Nate Silver, as if he was a demigod viewing us from Mt. Olympus.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

SassyIrishLass said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > martybegan said:
> ...



Agreed.

And that swing simply reflects the variability in polls.

The trends certainly don't favor HIllary.


----------



## martybegan (Sep 23, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> martybegan said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...



Still to early, and too close to make any predictions yet. I have a feeling Trump is keeping his powder dry for October.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

martybegan said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > martybegan said:
> ...



Predictions are not worth much.

But the instantaneous snapshot and recent trends tell you she is taking a beating.

if the trends continue...watch out.


----------



## Mac1958 (Sep 23, 2016)

martybegan said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > That's all that matters.
> ...


Yeah, exactly.  A big news story outside of the campaign could easily sway this thing.
.


----------



## candycorn (Sep 23, 2016)

No worries.  She’s killing it where she needs to:



 





 


 



 



 

And of course with the other states, these battle grounds above will give her a pretty comfortable victory.  She needs to do better in Nevada and she’s still pushing in Florida and Ohio.  



 

Ol’ Nate isn’t even counting NM as a toss up any longer…he he he

Hillary is Cruising.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

She's not winning in Florida.

But who really cares.

The point is that this thing is a lot closer than it was a month ago and Clinton isn't cruising.  She's got fouled machinery all over the place.

A 60% chance of winning in CO at this point would be a reason for concern.


----------



## Iceweasel (Sep 23, 2016)

candycorn said:


> No worries.  She’s killing it where she needs to:
> 
> View attachment 90719
> View attachment 90720
> ...


308 to 0 !!! Hillary wins by a landslide. Campaign is uncorked. Party hats fly through the air. Butts are squeezed. 

Candycorn wakes from her wet dream.


----------



## candycorn (Sep 23, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> She's not winning in Florida.
> 
> But who really cares.
> 
> ...




Okay, take Florida off the blue map.  Oh oh, she still has over 270.  Last I checked it takes 270 to win.  
And if you take Nevada off too…she still has over 270.  

No need to worry about Colorado.  Obama carried it by 2% over Romney who was from a neighboring state.  Its gone blue in both the last 2 elections, has a democrat governor…  

HRC is cruising.


----------



## Iceweasel (Sep 23, 2016)

candycorn said:


> HRC is cruising.


Cool. She can just stay at home now, as can you come election day. It isn't even close.


----------



## Oldstyle (Sep 23, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > She's not winning in Florida.
> ...



Hillary is doing anything but "cruising", Candy!  To show you how confused her campaign "message" is at the moment here in Florida the Clinton ad that they're running over and over again is one that attempts to paint Trump as hating the military because he wasn't in the military.  What's laughable about THAT is it's coming from the Clinton's...a couple that has never respected the military.  If that's the best thing they could come up with to "hit" Trump with...then they're in serious trouble!  Especially with the Assange e-mail "reveal" due right before the election!  Anytime someone pulls back the curtains and gives the American people a look at who the Clinton's really are and what they've done...Hillary's numbers take a nose dive.  That's what Assange is about to do!


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 23, 2016)

SassyIrishLass said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > martybegan said:
> ...



Real clear is not real or clear.. They do not use the same standards from day to day.. five days ago they changed the mix and whala... Clinton leads by three..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 23, 2016)

Oldstyle said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Sun Devil 92 said:
> ...


Julian is hinting that this will happen early this weekend...  most likely at the beginning of the news cycle and right before the debate... Would not surprise me if it happens this morning..


----------



## candycorn (Sep 23, 2016)

Oldstyle said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Sun Devil 92 said:
> ...





So HRC’s campaign is in trouble because she is running ads about how Donald “likes soldiers who were not captured”…

And Trump’s is in good shape because it’s depending on a hacker wanted by the authorities for date rape  to release a supposed authentic e-mail.

Got it.


----------



## candycorn (Sep 23, 2016)

Billy_Bob said:


> Oldstyle said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



Curious how the hero for the GOP is a guy who illegally hacks into other computers….I guess when your party is closely identified with 2 bit hucksters and the figurehead is a film flam artist…you catch any bus that comes by. 

Anyway; you never release information you want out on Friday.


----------



## Iceweasel (Sep 23, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Curious how the hero for the GOP is a guy who illegally hacks into other computers….


Huh? If you are talking about Assange, Wikileaks doesn't do any hacking. They post results of hacking.


----------



## Oldstyle (Sep 23, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Oldstyle said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



Admit it, Candy...the Clinton's have never been supporters of the military...yet she's now contending that she'd somehow be a better Commander in Chief because Trump likes soldiers who were not captured?  She disliked the military so much that she didn't want them to wear uniforms when the visited the White House!

As for Assange?  He's slime.  The e-mails that he has access to however reveal the REAL Hillary Clinton and that's bad news for Hillary because the REAL Hillary Clinton is corrupt as the day is long!


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > She's not winning in Florida.
> ...



It also dumped a democratic senator.

She's ahead.

If you think her campaign or party are cruising, then I have to ask why there have been a bunch of articles from people like Eugene Robinson telling people not to panic.

I really liked the one by Michael Tomansky basically saying yeah she's old/worn out/and people think she cheats....but you should still vote for her.

I am not a Trump fan, but I don't have my head in the sand like you.

She is ahead.  

Cruising....laughable.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

Oldstyle said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Oldstyle said:
> ...



The thing that pisses me off is that he'll wait until she can't respond.  

I, frankly, find that disgusting.


----------



## Oldstyle (Sep 23, 2016)

We haven't had the first debate yet.  We haven't had the Assange e-mail dump yet.  This race is essentially deadlocked.  That's reality.


----------



## Oldstyle (Sep 23, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> Oldstyle said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



That quite frankly could work to Clinton's advantage, Sun!  You know what her pat response is to any allegation of wrong doing is going to be.  She'll deny it and call it part of yet another "vast right wing conspiracy" against her.  Doing the dump too late in the election might not give the media time to verify the validity of the e-mails.  That's why I think Assange will come out with what he has about two weeks BEFORE the election...enough time to show that Clinton is once more lying about what was in the e-mails.


----------



## jillian (Sep 23, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > That's all that matters.
> ...


I think most people are dug in. there are some folk in the middle who seem to fluctuate.... although I'm not quite sure how but there ya go


----------



## jillian (Sep 23, 2016)

Oldstyle said:


> We haven't had the first debate yet.  We haven't had the Assange e-mail dump yet.  This race is essentially deadlocked.  That's reality.



your wishful thinking is amusing

the fact that you think putin's boy assange should tilt this election is particularly loser-ish


----------



## candycorn (Sep 23, 2016)

Oldstyle said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Oldstyle said:
> ...



She’s contending she’d be a better commander in chief because she has experience on the world stage, doesn’t think she knows more than the generals do, and has the proper contemplative temperament.  Trump has said we are going to “take the oil” from ISIS.  That means boots on the ground for the 3rd time in 25 years in the middle east.  No thanks.  

If you believe the man is slime…i’m curious how do you know what he is revealing is truthful?  Oh yeah, I forgot; content=credibility in the world of Conservatives.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

jillian said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...



You have 15% undecided in many polls.

That could easily swing things.

I think you have more potential for people to go in Hillary's direction if nothing else happens.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Oldstyle said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



Once again, we see the sillyness of those who have no clue about how this election is going.

You have about 30% who will vote for HIllary even if you could prove she was Satan.

You have about 30% who will vote for Trump even  though it just about been proved he is Satan.

In the middle you have a lot of people taking antacid and wondering how not to vomit when pulling the lever.

They really don't hear the commander in chief schtick.  All they know is they don't like her....they just can't figure out if they like him less.


----------



## candycorn (Sep 23, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Sun Devil 92 said:
> ...



She’s been in the lead since the starting gun.  She continues to lead.  A poll out today shows her up by 6-7 nationwide (meaningless since we go state by state of course but good news for us, bad news for Trump enablers) which is why you guys are hoping for a health issue and praying the public starts caring about e-mails.


----------



## Fueri (Sep 23, 2016)

Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

*Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated *

Fivethirtyeight uses more advanced statistical models than simple polls, which is why I prefer them to RCP (Real Questionable Practices, according to 538) or just straight polls.

They are telling people today to hold their water on this Clinton 'rebound'

I agree with others that this race is tight.  Clinton leads, yes, but one state moves against her and she loses and the trend is against her, at least for the time being.

Debates loom huge right now....


From the article:

. 
"Yes, Clinton has gotten some good polls. A new Monmouth University survey showing her ahead by 9 percentage points in New Hampshire is a strong result. A SurveyMonkey poll finding her leading Trump by 5 points nationally is good. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll putting her up 6 points among likely voters will also warm the hearts of Clinton fans.

But the trend lines are more mixed. Here are the polls released over the past three days and finished within the last week compared to the most recent poll in the same contest from the same pollster.1

....(table not c/p'd)....


In only three of the 16 polls has the race shifted in Clinton’s direction. It’s moved toward Trump in 10. Indeed, the average poll has moved 2.8 percentage points toward Trump."


----------



## candycorn (Sep 23, 2016)

Fueri said:


> Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
> 
> *Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated *
> 
> ...



9 points up with 45 days to go or so…even better for the future President Clinton.


----------



## Iceweasel (Sep 23, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Fueri said:
> 
> 
> > Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
> ...


In NH, but they don't decide the race. The average is 5 and Trump has the momentum but I don't put a lot of stock in polling.


----------



## Fueri (Sep 23, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Fueri said:
> 
> 
> > Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
> ...




Wow, great cherry-pick!

Also from the article, which I didn't post, but I should have known better than to think people would actually bother to read it before embarking on their partisan spin expeditions:

"Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the White House are still near an all-time low in the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, although they’re up a smidge from earlier in the week."


----------



## Oldstyle (Sep 23, 2016)

jillian said:


> Oldstyle said:
> 
> 
> > We haven't had the first debate yet.  We haven't had the Assange e-mail dump yet.  This race is essentially deadlocked.  That's reality.
> ...



If you when you say "tilt" you mean finally reveal what Hillary Clinton has been trying oh so hard to hide from the American people...then yes...that's what I'm wishing for!


----------



## Oldstyle (Sep 23, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Oldstyle said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



Oh, she has "experience" on the world stage all right, Candy!  The only problem is that it isn't positive experience.  "Contemplative temperament"?  Oh you mean she thinks about acting yet seldom does?  I hate to break this to you Candy but we HAVE boots on the ground in the Middle East!  Barry had to send troops back in to try and salvage the mess that he made by pulling them out prematurely.

As for the truthfulness of Assange?  Show me something he's released that you don't find credible...


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

The average has her up by 3.  People would be stupid to look at the Rueters poll and call it a tie.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 23, 2016)

Fueri said:


> Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
> 
> *Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated *
> 
> ...



He has him at over 40% the last I looked.

That up from a generous 20% a month ago.


----------



## Pop23 (Sep 23, 2016)

Mac1958 said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...



11 million illegals living in a racially divided country, nearly 20 Trillion in debt, with a marriage law that can't stop any two or more people from entering it while folks can't even tell which bathroom they are supposed to use.........

Clue me in again as to how it could get worse?


----------



## Fueri (Sep 23, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> Fueri said:
> 
> 
> > Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
> ...



yep.  A few days ago he drew almost even in the fivethirtyeight "now poll"

Whatever the causes, the race is tight enough that Trump has a realistic shot.

That amazes me as much as the next guy, but that's the case at the moment....


----------



## Mac1958 (Sep 23, 2016)

Pop23 said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > Sun Devil 92 said:
> ...


You really think this is as bad as it can get?
.


----------



## JimH52 (Sep 23, 2016)

Clinton knows exactly what states she needs to win.  Her handlers have a well conceived strategy, while Comrade Trump is flying around the country in what seems to be a haphazard attempt to attract someone other than angry white men.


----------



## JimH52 (Sep 23, 2016)

Fueri said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > Fueri said:
> ...



He made it to a 42% chance of winning the WH at 538.  That may be his peak.  Now he is falling.


----------



## Fueri (Sep 23, 2016)

JimH52 said:


> Fueri said:
> 
> 
> > Sun Devil 92 said:
> ...





Maybe,  maybe not.  Clinton nation has been declaring victory forever and yet the orange nightmare is right there.


----------



## candycorn (Sep 23, 2016)

Fueri said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Fueri said:
> ...



The funny part of this is that you have no idea what she/he meant.


----------



## candycorn (Sep 23, 2016)

Oldstyle said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Oldstyle said:
> ...


Your opinion is noted. 



Oldstyle said:


> "Contemplative temperament"?  Oh you mean she thinks about acting yet seldom does?


She thought about running in 2016.  Has done it. And is winning.  And will win.  Executing a strategy takes time.  All trump and his enablers seem to admire is acting before a strategy is even discussed.  



Oldstyle said:


> I hate to break this to you Candy but we HAVE boots on the ground in the Middle East!  Barry had to send troops back in to try and salvage the mess that he made by pulling them out prematurely.


This is true.  But rare is the case where they are doing the heavy lifting in combat situations.  “Taking the oil” is not only illegal, it’s going to cost a large number of casualties.  Again….you don’t make statements like that unless you want to impress the mindless hordes….like you.



Oldstyle said:


> As for the truthfulness of Assange?  Show me something he's released that you don't find credible...



Well, that’s just it with criminals.  Who knows what is truthful…what is false…what wasn’t released because it may have pertained to him or his allies???   When you live outside the law you no longer benefit from lady justice wearing her blindfold.


----------



## Oldstyle (Sep 24, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Oldstyle said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



It was a simple question, Candy...show me something that Assange has released that you don't find credible!


----------



## Fueri (Sep 24, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Fueri said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...




No the funny part is that your partisanship has apparently rendered you clinically blind.  

The title of the article is fairly clear as to the point of the article.


----------



## candycorn (Sep 24, 2016)

Oldstyle said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Oldstyle said:
> ...



I have trouble trusting anything released from someone who practices espionage.  He could “release” something tomorrow that was totally pulled out of thin air just as easily as something that once belonged to someone else.  

As for why you trust a common their, charlatan, and someone wanted for sexual assault…I guess your choice of heroes is your business.  Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.  

As for the credibility of a thief; Trump has said that he is going to “take their oil”…which means war and boots on the ground that will spawn terrorism as has been proven over the last quarter century.  Assange, ironically accuses Ms. Clinton of having the same policy….obviously she does not.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 24, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.



The irony of this statement is beyond pale.


----------



## candycorn (Sep 24, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Your messiah Trump sure has some strange bedfellows.
> ...



So is your messiah….I’ve bought futures in the spray tanning industry.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 24, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



It's unfortunate that you keep lying.

I've told you before that he is not my messiah.  I don't like the guy.

I don't like Hillary either.

I've been quite clear on that.

But the truth is that Hillary's choice of "bedfellows" has been gaining her grief for decades.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 24, 2016)

RealClear this moring shows HIllary up by 3.0.

Favorability ratings are up by 9 points.

But the electoral college holds.  

They show HIllary up by 2.5 points in CO.  This is starting to look like the state that could swing things.

I hope they are ready for a whole lot of crappy commercials.


----------



## candycorn (Sep 24, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Sun Devil 92 said:
> ...



Yeah, you keep saying that….your posts seem to say otherwise.  Are you sure you’re not Foxy’s sock?


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 24, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



Yes, my posts say I don't like Trump...it's all over them.

That I don't like Clinton is what seems to bother you.

You seem to actually like her.

Something I find amazing.

That I am fascinated by this election does not condemn me to being a Trump person.

She has lost a lot of her lead and her campaign is not really matching Trump's very well.

It isn't a matter of being true (that went out the window with both of them a long long time ago).

What works is what is interesting to me.

I can't tell if Trump's campaign is getting smarter or if Hillary's is just lazy and unaware.


----------



## candycorn (Sep 24, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Sun Devil 92 said:
> ...



So, when she does win, I will be looking forward to your dissection of Trump’s mean spirited campaign, his crazy ideas, his amateurish ground game, and what propelled Ms. Clinton over the top.  You being 100% impartial and all.  

Right?

I’m guessing you’ll disappear like a bad rash.  Basically there is no difference between you and it.


----------



## Oldstyle (Sep 24, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Oldstyle said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



Once again, Candy...simple question...what has Assange released that you don't find credible?  

The truth is...you can't think of anything...can you?  Julian Assange might be the biggest scum bag on the planet but that doesn't change the fact that he has access to e-mails that reveal the real way that Hillary Clinton operates and those emails paint an ugly picture.


----------



## candycorn (Sep 24, 2016)

Oldstyle said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Oldstyle said:
> ...


Just listed it…  Can you not read?


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 24, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



You seem to like to guess a great deal and then treat it like it was fact.

I can't help that you've become a slave to some fairy tale.

But you keep believing.

I am not 100% impartial, as you once again make stuff up to argue against.

I detest both candidates.  If they both got lost in the arctic, I'd be the happiest guy on earth....especially if they took a few people with them (like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Lawrence O'donnell, Ed Shultz and so on).

I'll be less interested in what they do as presidents, than I will be in watching the rest of this election unfold.

If she doesn't win, what do you do (I am sure you've thought about it since any rational person understands there is that possibility....well, maybe you are not that rational...I guess we'll see).

I suspect, you'll just keep guessing wrong and dropping your worthless turds (why change ?).

And keep lying like you've done already.

This thread is about how she is positioned.  I am not championing it....it fascinates me.

A month ago, I figured this was over and it would be time to get ready for the next clown show.

Mrs. Clinton would assume the position in front of the republican house and we'll have four more years of dead stand still government (the kind I like).


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 24, 2016)

Hillary Clinton is boring.

It's unfortunate that people think they should be stroked into voting for anyone.


----------



## Zander (Sep 24, 2016)

hiLIARy peaked right after the convention. It's been all down hill ever since. I like the trend!


----------



## candycorn (Sep 24, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Sun Devil 92 said:
> ...


Make predictions based on traditional data and polling with a proven track-record.  



Sun Devil 92 said:


> I can't help that you've become a slave to some fairy tale.


What fairy tale would that be?  That you'll ever answer a question directly?  Yeah...that is a fairy tale.



Sun Devil 92 said:


> I am not 100% impartial, as you once again make stuff up to argue against.


You don't say.  Really?


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 24, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > I am not 100% impartial, as you once again make stuff up to argue against.
> ...



Actually, I did say it.

You are a liar.

Your love interest is sucking fumes right now.

I just finished an article that says he's doing better among latinos that Romney did four years ago....especially in CO.

She better keep that state on a short leash.  If it turns, she is likely screwed.

Then we'll all be screwed.  

Then we can Thank Debbie Wasserass Shultz for screwing Bernie out of a fair shake.


----------



## candycorn (Sep 24, 2016)

Sun Devil 92 said:


> candycorn said:
> 
> 
> > Sun Devil 92 said:
> ...



It was scarcasm...christ you're an idiot.  CO belongs to Ms. Clinton.  As does CA, NY, NJ, CT, PA, WA, WI, VA etc......  To quote (partially) a famos Republican candidate for governor in Texas a few years back..."just lay back and enjoy it."


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 24, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



Whatsamatter Candy....drinking too much ?

CO does not belong to your love-interest.

Just like my home state does not necessarily belong to Trumpet.


----------



## Oldstyle (Sep 24, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Oldstyle said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



You listed something that Assange has released that you don't find credible?  Where?  In a different string?


----------



## Oldstyle (Sep 24, 2016)

candycorn said:


> Sun Devil 92 said:
> 
> 
> > candycorn said:
> ...



Thinking things "belonged" to her is what got Hillary in trouble with Barack Obama back in 2008.  By the time her political machine figured out that they didn't OWN anything Barry was accepting the nomination and she was home sulking!


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 26, 2016)

HIllary is back down to 2.2 points in her lead.

She is below 200 EVs on the RCP site.

What's killer is that they show CO at 0.2 point difference.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Sep 29, 2016)

Hillary is now at a 3.0 point lead.

She has increased her No Toss Up total from 272 to about 300.


----------



## candycorn (Oct 1, 2016)

Hillary is Cruising!


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Oct 1, 2016)

Silver indicates that Clinton won the debate and should see a shift in polls.

She's up to 3.1.

Hillary now has 292 EV's on the RCP No Toss Up map.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Oct 4, 2016)

Hillary is up to 3.8 point lead.

Florida, CO, and NV are all moving in HIllary's direction.

I wonder what excuse Trump will have on this one.

This second debate may actually be anti-climatic or he may really try to hurt her, look stupid and fall off the cliff.


----------



## the_human_being (Oct 4, 2016)

Man Oh Man!!  Just look at the huggggggggggeeee crowd that turned out for our sweet Hillary in Pennsylvania. With enthusiasm this high for our glorious leader, how can we lose?  It's over. It's in the bag. Trump is toast!

Busted! Hillary bussed in supporters/actors to PA event this morning


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Oct 6, 2016)

Trump is now over 4 points behind HIllary.

The RCP map has her up to 230 EV's.  Over 300 with no toss ups.

It appears that Hillary really nailed him with that South American woman.

Proving that Donald simply isn't as smart as he thinks he is.


----------



## Sun Devil 92 (Nov 2, 2016)

Hillary just dropped below 70%.

She's still way ahead.....

This has been fascinating.


----------

