# Tariff Drop, Negotiating Ploy?



## william the wie (Mar 1, 2018)

Assuming Trump's end game is a level playing field is this mostly histrionics to get Canada and Mexico off their high horses? How hard ball will this get? What kind of collateral damage to bystanders such as China and the EU is he willing to inflict?


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## shockedcanadian (Mar 1, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Assuming Trump's end game is a level playing field is this mostly histrionics to get Canada and Mexico off their high horses? How hard ball will this get? What kind of collateral damage to bystanders such as China and the EU is he willing to inflict?




You're not forming the question the right way, the question is, "how much is China, Canada and Mexico willing to pay for their government patsies as they betray capitalist concepts and exploit America before they decide to change their ways"?

This is long overdue.  Trump just solidified the Rust Belt votes and I predict he will also get more votes from Black and Hispanic communities who want opportunities and their dignity back, not subsidizing some communist/socialist foreign government to steal these jobs.


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## william the wie (Mar 1, 2018)

You could be right but calling China or Mexico a democracy is not factual. Judging by your posts Canada is not doing well in the same area. I don't see Canada using tanks and machine guns to keep the peace but Mexico and China, yeah.


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## shockedcanadian (Mar 1, 2018)

william the wie said:


> You could be right but calling China or Mexico a democracy is not factual. Judging by your posts Canada is not doing well in the same area. I don't see Canada using tanks and machine guns to keep the peace but Mexico and China, yeah.




By the way, Trump is doing this under "National Security".  Read my posts nearly a year old, maybe older, in which I posted on here that this is the argument Canada uses to enter American corporations in Canada.

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.


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## TomParks (Mar 1, 2018)

Hey give him his due it was a brilliant move.....locks up the rust belt as stated and more leverage on NAFTA. etc.


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## william the wie (Mar 1, 2018)

TomParks said:


> Hey give him his due it was a brilliant move.....locks up the rust belt as stated and more leverage on NAFTA. etc.



A 5-10% tariff across the board as deficit reduction would still be less than what the EU, NAFTA and TPP impose on US exports to them.


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## TheOldSchool (Mar 1, 2018)

I love how republicans are so quick to abandon the free market when commanded to by the orange dotard


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## MarathonMike (Mar 1, 2018)

Free market should mean level playing field but international trade has been stacked against America for decades. This is common knowledge.


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## MarathonMike (Mar 1, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Assuming Trump's end game is a level playing field is this mostly histrionics to get Canada and Mexico off their high horses? How hard ball will this get? What kind of collateral damage to bystanders such as China and the EU is he willing to inflict?


Seeing how Donald Trump operates, he will start with the high hard one under the chin, and then follow up with a change up.


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## william the wie (Mar 1, 2018)

Yeah, his idea of negotiation is not at all pretty to watch.


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## shockedcanadian (Mar 1, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


> william the wie said:
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> > Assuming Trump's end game is a level playing field is this mostly histrionics to get Canada and Mexico off their high horses? How hard ball will this get? What kind of collateral damage to bystanders such as China and the EU is he willing to inflict?
> ...



Or, he could start with one down the middle and then hard and inside when they crowd the plate!

He's good like that, totally unpredictable, though I think he early on he decides, "this is where I am going to be by the end", the ebb and flow of the process is what gets him motivated.


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## Picaro (Mar 3, 2018)

We need certain basic domestic industries regardless of ideological rubbish, and it's not like these multi-nationals ever passed on any savings in costs to consumers, so yes, tariffs are indeed a valid revenue source and yes protecting industries like steel and aluminum from overseas dumpers is a great policy.

You people do know Red China just became an open dictatorship again a few days ago, right? It wants to become a major military power; you want them controlling your supplies of steel or anything else?

This has been a Trump policy for some two years now; there was plenty of time for the markets to adjust.; if some companies didn't, too bad, their friendly traitor and criminal syndicate leaders lost the elections.


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## Marion Morrison (Mar 3, 2018)

TheOldSchool said:


> I love how republicans are so quick to abandon the free market when commanded to by the orange dotard



The Fed government was funded by tariffs alone for more than a century.


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## william the wie (Mar 3, 2018)

As long as it is revenue not economic policy tariffs are good and easier to collect than other taxes


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## HereWeGoAgain (Mar 3, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


> Free market should mean level playing field but international trade has been stacked against America for decades. This is common knowledge.



  Yeah..but the oldfool is uncommonly stupid,and or partisan.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Mar 4, 2018)

Picaro said:


> We need certain basic domestic industries regardless of ideological rubbish, and it's not like these multi-nationals ever passed on any savings in costs to consumers, so yes, tariffs are indeed a valid revenue source and yes protecting industries like steel and aluminum from overseas dumpers is a great policy.
> 
> You people do know Red China just became an open dictatorship again a few days ago, right? It wants to become a major military power; you want them controlling your supplies of steel or anything else?
> 
> This has been a Trump policy for some two years now; there was plenty of time for the markets to adjust.; if some companies didn't, too bad, their friendly traitor and criminal syndicate leaders lost the elections.



*We need certain basic domestic industries regardless of ideological rubbish,
*
Absolutely!!!
How much steel and aluminum do we currently produce inside the US?
How much do we need for national security purposes?


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## Picaro (Mar 4, 2018)

Marion Morrison said:


> TheOldSchool said:
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> > I love how republicans are so quick to abandon the free market when commanded to by the orange dotard
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That, and booze.


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## Picaro (Mar 4, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Yeah, his idea of negotiation is not at all pretty to watch.



Actually, he's pretty mellow; he just isn't intimidated by mau-mau type tactics and bullying.


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## Picaro (Mar 4, 2018)

By the way, we don't import a lot of it from China, but we do from Asia, and the Red Chinese can easily disrupt the trade routes, thanks to weak Presidents and the international labor racketeers who now consider Red China their new corporate BFF. You can read them openly gushing over the shithole every 3 months or so in *The Economist* and most especially *Foreign Affairs* periodicals, Forbes, ad nauseam.


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## Picaro (Mar 4, 2018)

Well, now you know why Moore had to go, and he won't be the last major $100 million establishment smear job against a patriotic Senate candidate before 2020.


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## william the wie (Mar 4, 2018)

Picaro said:


> Well, now you know why Moore had to go, and he won't be the last major $100 million establishment smear job against a patriotic Senate candidate before 2020.


 Looking at muni rates in blue states a few things are obvious:

With IL paying 3.75% on tax exempt bonds while the Fed pays 3% taxable on the ten year treasury over and above the more general unfunded liabilities of the Blue wall the blue states are generally bad credit risks. They currently own the top 10 worst rated states for finances, which would not normally be a big deal but what is happening is the exact opposite is of what the blue wall needs

Massive out migration funded by natural disasters and homeowners insurance is having a very different effect than usual and the national economic stats is amplifying this periodic shift.

The SALT and mortgage deduction caps are making this pothole expand rapidly.

Blue states are raising taxes that are no longer deductible.

The war on regulation and the tax bill have made the Blue wall less desirable due to SALT and state/local regulation competition working against them.

Red states are generally experiencing wage push inflation it appears to be hitting double digits here in FL.

That means Fed rate hikes are going to be common until further notice. 

The Blue Wall has big problems


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## Toddsterpatriot (Mar 4, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Picaro said:
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> > Well, now you know why Moore had to go, and he won't be the last major $100 million establishment smear job against a patriotic Senate candidate before 2020.
> ...


*
Red states are generally experiencing wage push inflation it appears to be hitting double digits here in FL.
*
There isn't 10% inflation in Florida.


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## Picaro (Mar 5, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Picaro said:
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> > Well, now you know why Moore had to go, and he won't be the last major $100 million establishment smear job against a patriotic Senate candidate before 2020.
> ...



I think it's just population increases in the southern states, along with housing prices going up at in the top end and low end housing markets. We're seeing a return of dubious mortgage lending again on the rise; most people erroneously think those were regulated away, but they're highly mistaken nothing was done about them. We're seeing that here in parts of Texas, with Californians and Red River wetbacks flooding in. The infrastructure couldn't handle what we already had, especially roads and utilities.

But the biggest is of course the ongoing concentration and monopolization of industries, especially since the 2008 collapse and bailouts. Those leveraged buyouts require increases in prices to pay for them plus a profit.


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## william the wie (Mar 5, 2018)

Well if the economy in the Blue Wall does not improve by the end of this month by a lot, the old definition of a recession, two quarters of negative growth, will have been reached. The problem is mostly in the real estate market and while so far no big increase in invisible lightening strikes not many stories about reconstruction either.


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## Picaro (Mar 5, 2018)

The big boys can still get free money from the Fed. When they choke on that, look for speculators and many mutual funds and institutional managers to start going short and racing back to blue  bonds.


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## william the wie (Mar 5, 2018)

Picaro said:


> The big boys can still get free money from the Fed. When they choke on that, look for speculators and many mutual funds and institutional managers to start going short and racing back to blue  bonds.



IL has been in non-bond default for more than 20 years. For all the gory details on that ask 2a guy to start or revive a thread on the subject. 

The shift out of Silicon Valley is being driven by the wage expense for software engineers in the rust belt being only 25-30% of that in Silicon Valley. Also CA is and has been in technical default for quite sometime and I kid you not state buildings are being used as collateral to roll over debt. (CA guarantees repayment of a huge number of in state local muni zero coupon bonds. The guarantees are not listed as state debts even though the localities went either bankrupt or into default. Firing the police and fire departments is another Cali trick that is somewhat dubious but popular cost savings as well. )

In Greater NYC a huge percentage of housing prices are adversely affected by the mortgage deduction cap. 

What kind of idiot would buy these guaranteed to default issues?


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## Toddsterpatriot (Mar 5, 2018)

Picaro said:


> The big boys can still get free money from the Fed. When they choke on that, look for speculators and many mutual funds and institutional managers to start going short and racing back to blue  bonds.


*
The big boys can still get free money from the Fed.
*
Nobody gets free money from the Fed.
Currently, at the Fed Discount Window, the rate charged is 2.00%.
Is that a good rate for banks to borrow at?
Well, at the end of last week, banks were borrowing $8 million in primary loans at the Discount Window.

Seems like the big boys don't need 2% money from the Fed at the moment.


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## Flopper (Mar 5, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Assuming Trump's end game is a level playing field is this mostly histrionics to get Canada and Mexico off their high horses? How hard ball will this get? What kind of collateral damage to bystanders such as China and the EU is he willing to inflict?


*I doubt it will bring Mexico to the bargaining table since they are not a major producer of either product but they do produce ore needed for production.  So the tariffs are not likely to hurt Mexico.  They might even help them a bit,  Canada however is a different story.  They are large producers of both Aluminum and Steel.

Retaliation is a given.  Every government is under pressure to apply tariffs to protect their industries.  The most probably retaliation will be agricultural products, particularly Soybeans.  The US is the largest producer in the world but has a lot of completion.  Both China and Canada have large growing production and will not hesitate to retaliate.  The only thing that holds back retaliation is knowledge that a worldwide trade war could result in which there would be no winners.   

This is just another one of Trump's crazy ideas.  He made a campaign promise and he thinks he needs to fulfill.  Every time he feels the pressure from the media on one issue, he creates another to grab the headlines to distract his opponents.         *


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## Flopper (Mar 5, 2018)

shockedcanadian said:


> william the wie said:
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> > Assuming Trump's end game is a level playing field is this mostly histrionics to get Canada and Mexico off their high horses? How hard ball will this get? What kind of collateral damage to bystanders such as China and the EU is he willing to inflict?
> ...


*It might well help steel mills and aluminum production.  However, it is very likely to have a negative effect on US car dealers, Auto manufacturers, Boat manufacturers, The beer industry, and Retailers.  If other countries retaliate, it will hurt all Americans.  Fears of inflation will become reality and the stock market will plummet.  Nobody wins a trade war.*


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## william the wie (Mar 5, 2018)

Flopper said:


> william the wie said:
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> > Assuming Trump's end game is a level playing field is this mostly histrionics to get Canada and Mexico off their high horses? How hard ball will this get? What kind of collateral damage to bystanders such as China and the EU is he willing to inflict?
> ...



Mostly agree but Canada has never wanted a trade agreement with Mexico and desperately wants one with the US. Mexico's president knows this about Canada. Playing one against the other is a game theory gimme.


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## william the wie (Mar 5, 2018)

Flopper said:


> shockedcanadian said:
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Don't know where you live but inflation was here in FL long before the tariff talk wage push inflation was here at least in the building trades.


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## Zander (Mar 5, 2018)

Trump haters obsess over every utterance or phrase that he makes. One thing they never learn is that with Trump, it's all a negotiation. Trump starts every negotiation with a hard line- and he gets great results. 

Democrats want to go in with a pre-greased asshole and knee pads. Then they'll wonder why we are getting ass fucked! 

We'll see how it plays out.


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## william the wie (Mar 5, 2018)

Zander said:


> Trump haters obsess over every utterance or phrase that he makes. One thing they never learn is that with Trump, it's all a negotiation. Trump starts every negotiation with a hard line- and he gets great results.
> 
> Democrats want to go in with a pre-greased asshole and knee pads. Then they'll wonder why we are getting ass fucked!
> 
> We'll see how it plays out.



The problem with Trump is you can never figure out his end game. Take his tax bill, is the goal to flip CA, IL, NJ & NY by cutting off the Ds cash line in those states or what?


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## OnePercenter (Mar 5, 2018)

shockedcanadian said:


> william the wie said:
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> 
> > Assuming Trump's end game is a level playing field is this mostly histrionics to get Canada and Mexico off their high horses? How hard ball will this get? What kind of collateral damage to bystanders such as China and the EU is he willing to inflict?
> ...



You're overthinking this. Trump could care less about jobs, it's all about the market gains.


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## tycho1572 (Mar 5, 2018)

Trump knows exactly what he’s doing. His goal is to accomplish everything he promised during his campaign. His main goal is to improve the lives of every American.
The approach this man is taking is genius!

Trump is a lot smarter than some think. In a way... he reminds me of Colombo. lol


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## OnePercenter (Mar 5, 2018)

tycho1572 said:


> Trump knows exactly what he’s doing. His goal is to accomplish everything he promised during his campaign. His main goal is to improve the lives of every American.
> The approach this man is taking is genius!
> 
> Trump is a lot smarter than some think. In a way... he reminds me of Colombo. lol



What a chump! Trump firmly believes that he is the President of the United States of Corporate America. He has done NOTHING for the working class.


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## tycho1572 (Mar 5, 2018)

OnePercenter said:


> tycho1572 said:
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Try selling that nonsense to the millions who are now employed. lol


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## william the wie (Mar 5, 2018)

OnePercenter said:


> tycho1572 said:
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 Wellyou don't get any pay checks or know any one who does.


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## william the wie (Mar 5, 2018)

tycho1572 said:


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At very best 1%er is a trust baby and more likely he's still living in mom's basement.


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## OnePercenter (Mar 5, 2018)

tycho1572 said:


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The millions of Americans that are under employed or must work a second or more jobs to make ends meet?


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## OnePercenter (Mar 5, 2018)

william the wie said:


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So you write an attack post because you can't refute mine with facts?


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## tycho1572 (Mar 5, 2018)

OnePercenter said:


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You’re an idiot. I’m glad you only represent 1%.


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## OnePercenter (Mar 5, 2018)

tycho1572 said:


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You can't refute my post with facts and you call ME an idiot?


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## tycho1572 (Mar 5, 2018)

OnePercenter said:


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You’re the one arguing facts, dumbass.


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## OnePercenter (Mar 5, 2018)

tycho1572 said:


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Again. You can't refute my post with facts and you call ME an idiot?


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## tycho1572 (Mar 5, 2018)

OnePercenter said:


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Let me know when you post something that doesn’t remind me of being at work dealing with a patient with mental issues.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Mar 5, 2018)

OnePercenter said:


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If the dunce cap fits..........


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## Flopper (Mar 5, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


> Free market should mean level playing field but international trade has been stacked against America for decades. This is common knowledge.


*A level playing field can only exist in countries where there is a free market.  That means no government support for failing industries, no special tax treatments, and no tariffs to protect them from foreign competition.  In short, there is no such thing as a level playing field.  For example China takes an active part in supporting certain industries, manipulates currency and will engage in any many tactics that US considers unfair.  The US is always violating trade treaties ranging from serious acts such as subsidizing industries to labeling Tuna as Dolphin Safe. This is why there is no trade agreement between the US and China.  In fact, the US has no agreement with 7 of it's 10 major trading partners,  The US uses WTO agreements for 65% of it's trade.   

Trade agreements allow a nation to decide which industries it will negotiate protection at the expense to other industries, what actions of government are to be forbidden and which will be condoned.   Some industries in a country will be winners and others will be losers.  Free trade agreements attempt to eliminate government interference in the free market, however no free trade agreement is completely free of government inference.

Attempting to protect industries that can't compete in world markets with tariffs, subsides, and other government handouts may be good political policy but it's bad economic policy.*


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## Flopper (Mar 5, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Flopper said:
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*The current US inflation rate is about 2.3%.  In South Florida it's a bit less.  Inflated construction prices are common across the country now.  Roll the clock back a few years and falling housing cost was common. *


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## BuckToothMoron (Mar 5, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Assuming Trump's end game is a level playing field is this mostly histrionics to get Canada and Mexico off their high horses? How hard ball will this get? What kind of collateral damage to bystanders such as China and the EU is he willing to inflict?



So many moving parts, it could take years or decades to accurately account for all the effects.


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## Flopper (Mar 6, 2018)

Zander said:


> Trump haters obsess over every utterance or phrase that he makes. One thing they never learn is that with Trump, it's all a negotiation. Trump starts every negotiation with a hard line- and he gets great results.
> 
> Democrats want to go in with a pre-greased asshole and knee pads. Then they'll wonder why we are getting ass fucked!
> 
> We'll see how it plays out.


*It it's all negotiation, we're in deep shit.  

Trump cancelled TPO, a trade deal that encompassed 40% of world trade and the fasting growing markets in the world.  Unlike Trump predicted, the TPO is not dead without the US.  It has been reborn as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with China replacing the US as the central figure.  

For two years the clown has been promising to cancel the Iran nuclear deal and negotiate a new one.  What has he done? Absolutely nothing but infuriated the major European countries that were party to the deal.  This ended with the other signers pledging to honor it regardless of what the US did.

Meanwhile the Canada EU deal is nearing completion and Trump has ignored it.  

NAFTA negotiators are continuing to resolve disputes just as they have done for the last 15 years while completely ignoring Trump who vacillates from walking out on NAFTA to renegotiating selected parts.  

How about the bilateral South Korea US deal.  While his negotiators were meeting with South Korea, Trump was bad mouthing both the deal and the South Korean president.  

And there's the Paris Climate Accord which Trump walked out on and said he was open to making changes.  When Macron asked Trump what he wanted to change, Trump was dumbfounded.  He apparent had no idea what was actual in the Accord.  

And then there was the day that started with a negotiation of the bipartisan immigration deal and ended with a Trump's “shithole” comment that totally side tracked negotiations.

Then there's the brilliant negotiations with the Democrats which changed the support on the tax bill from 90% opposition to 100%.*


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## Zander (Mar 6, 2018)

Flopper said:


> Zander said:
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> > Trump haters obsess over every utterance or phrase that he makes. One thing they never learn is that with Trump, it's all a negotiation. Trump starts every negotiation with a hard line- and he gets great results.
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Tissue?


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## OnePercenter (Mar 7, 2018)

Toddsterpatriot said:


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You can't refute my post with facts so you go into attack the poster mode. Very adult of you.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Mar 7, 2018)

OnePercenter said:


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You posted facts? Where?


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## william the wie (Mar 7, 2018)

The ten year treasury is going up steadily so China and the rest of the world are not expecting much trouble at all.


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## Picaro (Mar 7, 2018)

william the wie said:


> The ten year treasury is going up steadily so China and the rest of the world are not expecting much trouble at all.



Yes. The negative interest rates here are smaller than the negative interest rates everywhere else with similar stability. This is also a drag on interest rates itself, having so much cash pouring in with few places to put it. Major market movers like Apple don't borrow anything, for one.


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## william the wie (Mar 7, 2018)

Picaro said:


> william the wie said:
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In large part they can't. Commodore was the first company to ship one million computers. Block Buster was one of the biggest high-tech companies in the world at one time, it displaced Polaroid if memory serves. The Microsofts of the world are rare.


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