# Buy Ford.



## Missourian (Nov 24, 2008)

I have nothing to back this up other than intuition.


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## DavidS (Nov 24, 2008)

Missourian said:


> I have nothing to back this up other than intuition.



Up 13 cents.

F: Summary for FORD MOTOR CO - Yahoo! Finance


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## Missourian (Nov 24, 2008)

I mean for the long haul.  It started the day today at $1.43 - in five years it will be $30.


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## DavidS (Nov 24, 2008)

Missourian said:


> I mean for the long haul.  It started the day today at $1.43 - in five years it will be $30.



I don't believe in long haul investing. If I'm in a stock more than a week something's wrong.


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## Luissa (Nov 24, 2008)

Missourian said:


> I have nothing to back this up other than intuition.



That is what I was thinking, these stocks can only go up if they stay in business plus we need to start stimulating the stock market!


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## Missourian (Nov 24, 2008)

Luissa27 said:


> That is what I was thinking, these stocks can only go up if they stay in business plus we need to start stimulating the stock market!



Exactly...if any of them make it, it will be FoMoCo.


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## Luissa (Nov 24, 2008)

Missourian said:


> Exactly...if any of them make it, it will be FoMoCo.


I would go with Chevy actually which actually is more green then any of them and has green vehicles in production. I watched this thing on CBS last week about their factories and how they have already started improvements that people have been demanding these companies do during the bail out talks. I am not an expert though. I can tell you it for sure will not be Chrysler, I think they should just let them go!


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## DavidS (Nov 24, 2008)

Ford went up 9 cents today or 4.9%. GM went up 36 cents or 11.75%.


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## BaronVonBigmeat (Nov 25, 2008)

I can't imagine putting any money into them or GM until they start closing jobs banks, breaking union contracts, reneging on pension obligations, and closing dealerships. And apparently they can't do any of this without declaring bankruptcy, so yeah. If they could, someone would have bought them already and started making the changes.


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## Missourian (Nov 26, 2008)

Ford is up to $2.15.


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## CrimsonWhite (Nov 27, 2008)

Missourian said:


> Ford is up to $2.15.



I agree, it is a great long term investment. Chapter 11 will only help them. Buy now and hold it.


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## Luissa (Nov 27, 2008)

CrimsonWhite said:


> I agree, it is a great long term investment. Chapter 11 will only help them. Buy now and hold it.


If only people would do this!


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## NOBama (Nov 27, 2008)

CrimsonWhite said:


> I agree, it is a great long term investment. Chapter 11 will only help them. Buy now and hold it.


 
Man, proceed with caution if they go into bankruptcy. Personally, I hold several thousand shares of Ford and Ill bail, when I think the time is right, if they go Chapter 11 because, I believe the common shareholder will get wiped out. FWIW, I say this based on experience... Bad experience.

The irony is, if they do file Chapter 11, the stock will probably pop (multifold) because a lot of people will get caught in the good news trap that Ford will emerge a better and stronger company, which it will.

On the other hand, maybe theyll have enough cash to pay off all their creditors, restructure, and leave the common shareholder in tact, but I doubt it.

IMO, the long term buy and hold opportunity for Ford will be after they emerge from bankruptcy, if it happens.

In my mind this is still a Lotto play.


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## AVG-JOE (Nov 27, 2008)

BaronVonBigmeat said:


> I can't imagine putting any money into them or GM until they start closing jobs banks, breaking union contracts, reneging on pension obligations, and closing dealerships. And apparently they can't do any of this without declaring bankruptcy, so yeah. If they could, someone would have bought them already and started making the changes.



I'm with you BVBM... I'll hold off on Ford until the restructure is announced that will break the strangleholds of both the union and executive compensation packages.  

Being in Florida, I have met relatively young retired auto workers who put 35+ years in on the line, starting when they were 19 - 20 years old, and now they draw $4,000 to $5,000 per month plus full medical with no co-pay.  I can only imagine what the retired executives bring in while sitting on their yachts.  Taking care of retired workers is one thing... the UAW contract and corresponding executive package are ridiculous, and killing the companies.

-Joe


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## Missourian (Nov 27, 2008)

NOBama said:


> Man, proceed with caution if they go into bankruptcy. Personally, I hold several thousand shares of Ford and Ill bail, when I think the time is right, if they go Chapter 11 because, I believe the common shareholder will get wiped out. FWIW, I say this based on experience... Bad experience.
> 
> The irony is, if they do file Chapter 11, the stock will probably pop (multifold) because a lot of people will get caught in the good news trap that Ford will emerge a better and stronger company, which it will.
> 
> ...




I got one word for you Nobama....Kmart.

In 2002, before entering bankruptcy, it was trading at something like 74 cents a share.

By 2004 they were buying Sears.

Today they trade close to $30 a share.


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## Missourian (Nov 27, 2008)

AVG-JOE said:


> I'm with you BVBM... I'll hold off on Ford until the restructure is announced that will break the strangleholds of both the *union* and executive compensation packages.




IMO the Democrats won't allow that to happen.  The Unions are one of the key columns of party support, one they can't afford to lose.  Forcing this December 2 meeting is just a dog and pony show.  The Democrat party can't allow a union-busting on their watch.


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## NOBama (Nov 27, 2008)

Missourian said:


> IMO the Democrats won't allow that to happen. The Unions are one of the key columns of party support, one they can't afford to lose. Forcing this December 2 meeting is just a dog and pony show. The Democrat party can't allow a union-busting on their watch.


 
I agree. That's a great risk/reward equalizer, for me.


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## Missourian (Nov 28, 2008)

Ford stock up to $2.69.


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## NOBama (Nov 29, 2008)

Missourian said:


> I got one word for you Nobama....Kmart.


 
Didn&#8217;t the pre-bankruptcy K-Mart shareholders get wiped out?



> *Fair Funds for Investors: Comparing WorldCom and Kmart*
> 
> Excerpt
> 
> ...


 
Also, Didn't Sears buy up a bunch of K-Mart stores after K-Mart emerged from bankruptcy and before K-Mart bought Sears out? I don&#8217;t recall specifically but, I think that was a key factor in making sure K-Mart had enough cash to execute the transaction which ultimately created the Sears Holding Corp., which now owns both K-Mart and Sears. 

These are moot points really because, like yourself, I doubt that Ford's going into bankruptcy.


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## Missourian (Nov 29, 2008)

> "During Chapter 11 bankruptcy, bondholders stop receiving interest and principal payments, and stockholders stop receiving dividends. If you are a bondholder, you may receive new stock in exchange for your bonds, new bonds or a combination of stock and bonds. If you are a stockholder, the trustee may ask you to send back your stock in exchange for shares in the reorganized company. The new shares may be fewer in number and worth less. The reorganization plan spells out your rights as an investor and what you can expect to receive, if anything, from the company." ...
> 
> ...Conclusion From an investor's point of view, there isn't much good to say about bankruptcy. No matter what type of investment you made in a company, once it goes bankrupt you are probably going to get a lower return on your investment than you once expected. As an individual investor, you don't have any more say in a company's restructuring plan than you do in any other corporate actions on which shareholders vote.
> 
> In general, Chapter 11 is better than Chapter 7, but in either case you shouldn't expect much of your investment back. Relatively few firms undergoing Chapter 11 proceedings are able to be profitable again after a reorganization, and if they do, it is not a quick process. As an investor, you should react to a company's bankruptcy the same way you would if one of your stocks took an unexpected dive: recognize and accept the dramatically reduced prospects of the company, and ask yourself whether or not you still want to be invested in the company. If the answer is no, let go of your failed investment - holding on while the company undergoes bankruptcy proceedings will only lead to sleepless nights and perhaps even greater losses in the future.




More - An Overview Of Corporate Bankruptcy


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## NOBama (Nov 29, 2008)

This is the first article I found resulting from a quick Google:



> USAToday.com
> Posted 5/9/2005 4:07 AM Updated 5/9/2005 1:58 PM
> 
> *Any recourse for Kmart investors?*
> ...


 
You can probably find their official SEC Filings regarding the matter but, I'm not going to do it. I believe K-Mart pre-BK shareholders got nadda. Same as I got when Delta Airlines emerged from BK under their current ticker, I got $0.00/shares because my shares didn't exist anymore. Same as K-Mart's. The common shareholder is the last man on the totem poll when it come to being awarded any compensation. By the time they get to us, they usually have no money left.


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## NOBama (Dec 2, 2008)

Ford rolls today. The only question is, how far?

According to FNC there's also talk on the Hill about auto company mergers.

It would be interesting if GM and Ford merge. What would they call it, a GeMFo, a FoGoMo, a...?


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## PoliticalChic (Dec 2, 2008)

NOBama said:


> Ford rolls today. The only question is, how far?
> 
> According to FNC there's also talk on the Hill about auto company mergers.
> 
> It would be interesting if GM and Ford merge. What would they call it, a GeMFo, a FoGoMo, a...?



I don't have the guts to buy this stock, but I'll buy it for the fantasy stock market game!


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## DavidS (Dec 2, 2008)

NOBama said:


> Ford rolls today. The only question is, how far?
> 
> According to FNC there's also talk on the Hill about auto company mergers.
> 
> It would be interesting if GM and Ford merge. What would they call it, a GeMFo, a FoGoMo, a...?



GM is shedding three brands. In exchange, it could pick up Ford, Mercury and Lincoln. Ford is selling Volvo which is the last of its extended brands: Jaguar, Astin-Marton, Volvo and Land Rover. 

I can't believe Ford is getting rid of Volvo. Volvo has REALLY helped Ford improve its overall safety in the past decade. The Ford Fusion is built on a Volvo platform and is selling like hot cakes and received the best pick overall by IIHS.


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## NOBama (Dec 2, 2008)

PoliticalChic said:


> I don't have the guts to buy this stock, but I'll buy it for the fantasy stock market game!


 
Hey, You could WIN! 

I got to the top 4% yesterday. If I had joined when the game started (with the same picks), I'd be buying a new bus after the game.


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## Missourian (Dec 2, 2008)

NOBama said:


> This is the first article I found resulting from a quick Google:
> 
> 
> 
> You can probably find their official SEC Filings regarding the matter but, I'm not going to do it. I believe K-Mart pre-BK shareholders got nadda..



I stand corrected.


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## auditor0007 (Dec 8, 2008)

Missourian said:


> I have nothing to back this up other than intuition.




I believe your intuition is very good.  While Ford probably won't appreciate much in value in the short term, it is the strongest, by far, of the Big 3.  More likely than not, it could survive even without some bailout money.  Ford puts out a good product and doesn't have nearly as many losers as GM.  Chrysler may as well shut their doors.  Sell off the Jeep division and scrap the rest of the company.


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## DavidS (May 6, 2009)

Missourian said:


> I have nothing to back this up other than intuition.


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