# Top Investers Start Dumping Stocks, Signal to Exit DOW?



## JimBowie1958

Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why



> Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.
> 
> Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of disappointing performance in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.
> 
> In the latest filing for Buffetts holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in consumer product stocks by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.
> 
> With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffetts apparent lack of faith in these companies future prospects is worrisome.
> 
> Unfortunately Buffett isnt alone.
> 
> Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulsons hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.
> 
> Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.
> 
> So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?




The Bearish Call to End All Bearish Calls - MoneyBeat - WSJ



> In what may be the bearish call to end all bearish calls, one technician believes 2014 will be the year of major reversals, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average expected to start a two-year decline that could eventually take it down more than 70% to below 5000.
> 
> United-ICAP chief market technician Walter Zimmerman said the Dow Industrials could still rally another 4% or so first, to a high around 17150, before the great reversal begins. And for those who thought 2008 was the worst bear market they will ever see, just wait.
> 
> Based on our longer-term time cycles the present stock market rally must be considered the bubble to end all bubbles, Mr. Zimmerman wrote in a note to clients.
> 
> He doesnt believe the Dow Industrials will hit a long-term cycle low until 2016, somewhere in the 5770 to 4650 range. The Dow hasnt seen those levels, which are 65% to 72% below current prices, since late-1995 to mid-1996



What happens when you turn off the money spicket that has been inflating the stock markets since 2008?

A crash. When will it happen? Anybody's guess is as good as the next, since markets can stay irrational longer than most of us can wait it out.


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## bigrebnc1775

It's coming people have been warned to prepare.


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## JimBowie1958

bigrebnc1775 said:


> It's coming people have been warned to prepare.



Agreed, but the people running the scam/looting operations have enriched themselves already, I just hope they get caught in the whirlwind as well.


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## Truthmatters

The Next Meltdown | National Review Online


gee what happened to the HYPER inflation he predicted?


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## Truthmatters

why didn't you skanks believe me when I told you this shit was going to crash due to the housing market being used as a cash machine for the banks?


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## Sallow

I am so glad none of you folks are in charge of nothing important right now.

And hopefully the House gets cleared out of anti-government fools in November.


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## JimBowie1958

Truthmatters said:


> The Next Meltdown | National Review Online
> 
> 
> gee what happened to the HYPER inflation he predicted?



From your article:



> Thats what they said about his first book, Americas Bubble Economy, in which Wiedemer and his co-authors, his Ph.D. brother David and writer Cindy Spitzer, *predicted that the U.S. residential real-estate market was overvalued and due for a crash*. That was in 2006, months before the crash actually occurred. Now Wiedemer is warning people that another bubble is about to collapse: America itself.
> 
> More specifically, it is Wiedemers view that the U.S. dollar will be the next bubble to burst. The governments fiscal position, he explains, is unsustainable. America owes six times what it collects in tax revenues each year, and that ratio is projected to explode with the retirement of the baby boomers. On top of that, *nearly 40 percent of U.S. debt must be refinanced each year, leaving the government highly vulnerable to rising interest rates. *The Feds printing presses have been working overtime throughout the crisis, buying Treasuries and other securities to keep the economy afloat. This is a recipe for hyperinflation, and the New York Hedge Fund Roundtable has invited Wiedemer to this small conference room overlooking Park Avenue to tell investors how they can protect themselves from the fallout. His advice in one word: Gold.



As long as the Federal Reserve continues to buy its own securities that do not sell the interests rates will stay low, the risk being that other countries may dump your securities as they perceive them as being over printed with nothing behind them. The thing is we have petroleum backing our currency as long as the Saudis and other Gulf nations accept payment only in US Dollars. That huge reserve of USD is going to keep demand for the dollar going strong no matter what the Feds do, and so hyper-inflation is averted.

But if the Saudis decide to take payments in other currencies....well then we see inflation and the Federal reserve gets caught between a rock and a hard place as they cant raise interest rates to kill inflation because that would make the Federal Debt shoot through the ceiling, and continuing to print USD denominated securities will totally destroy confidence in those securities and they get dumped which leads to inflation.

Hope that helps explain why we have seen no inflation up to now, IMO.

YMMV.


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## JimBowie1958

Sallow said:


> I am so glad none of you folks are in charge of nothing important right now.
> 
> And hopefully the House gets cleared out of anti-government fools in November.



Is there a single topic that you libtards don't drag partisan politics into?

You absolute fanaticism is turning people off, so it is good to see for that reason.

And if you think Bernanke and Greenspan were our best economists then you are an idiot.


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## JimBowie1958

Truthmatters said:


> why didn't you skanks believe me when I told you this shit was going to crash due to the housing market being used as a cash machine for the banks?



Not sure who you are referring to, but I also believed the housing bubble was going to crash as did many other people.


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## Delta4Embassy

JimBowie1958 said:


> Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.
> 
> Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of disappointing performance in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.
> 
> In the latest filing for Buffetts holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in consumer product stocks by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.
> 
> With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffetts apparent lack of faith in these companies future prospects is worrisome.
> 
> Unfortunately Buffett isnt alone.
> 
> Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulsons hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.
> 
> Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.
> 
> So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Bearish Call to End All Bearish Calls - MoneyBeat - WSJ
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In what may be the bearish call to end all bearish calls, one technician believes 2014 will be the year of major reversals, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average expected to start a two-year decline that could eventually take it down more than 70% to below 5000.
> 
> United-ICAP chief market technician Walter Zimmerman said the Dow Industrials could still rally another 4% or so first, to a high around 17150, before the great reversal begins. And for those who thought 2008 was the worst bear market they will ever see, just wait.
> 
> Based on our longer-term time cycles the present stock market rally must be considered the bubble to end all bubbles, Mr. Zimmerman wrote in a note to clients.
> 
> He doesnt believe the Dow Industrials will hit a long-term cycle low until 2016, somewhere in the 5770 to 4650 range. The Dow hasnt seen those levels, which are 65% to 72% below current prices, since late-1995 to mid-1996
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> What happens when you turn off the money spicket that has been inflating the stock markets since 2008?
> 
> A crash. When will it happen? Anybody's guess is as good as the next, since markets can stay irrational longer than most of us can wait it out.
Click to expand...


It's called 'taking profits.' When large-scale investors do it, chances are because they realize how it looks and can cause an actual decline in values, they're probably taking profits on the uptick, and shorting those same stocks on the expected downtick. Good strategy is all it is. Short-term flucuations in value don't, or shouldn't, be an indicator of anything. When you invest you're investing long-term or not at all. But taking profits is always a good idea if you think values are near the top of the curve. Sell at the top, short on the way down, then buy-back when low, repeat.


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## JimBowie1958

Delta4Embassy said:


> JimBowie1958 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.
> 
> Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of disappointing performance in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.
> 
> In the latest filing for Buffetts holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in consumer product stocks by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.
> 
> With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffetts apparent lack of faith in these companies future prospects is worrisome.
> 
> Unfortunately Buffett isnt alone.
> 
> Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulsons hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.
> 
> Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.
> 
> So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Bearish Call to End All Bearish Calls - MoneyBeat - WSJ
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In what may be the bearish call to end all bearish calls, one technician believes 2014 will be the year of major reversals, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average expected to start a two-year decline that could eventually take it down more than 70% to below 5000.
> 
> United-ICAP chief market technician Walter Zimmerman said the Dow Industrials could still rally another 4% or so first, to a high around 17150, before the great reversal begins. And for those who thought 2008 was the worst bear market they will ever see, just wait.
> 
> Based on our longer-term time cycles the present stock market rally must be considered the bubble to end all bubbles, Mr. Zimmerman wrote in a note to clients.
> 
> He doesnt believe the Dow Industrials will hit a long-term cycle low until 2016, somewhere in the 5770 to 4650 range. The Dow hasnt seen those levels, which are 65% to 72% below current prices, since late-1995 to mid-1996
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> What happens when you turn off the money spicket that has been inflating the stock markets since 2008?
> 
> A crash. When will it happen? Anybody's guess is as good as the next, since markets can stay irrational longer than most of us can wait it out.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> It's called 'taking profits.' When large-scale investors do it, chances are because they realize how it looks and can cause an actual decline in values, they're probably taking profits on the uptick, and shorting those same stocks on the expected downtick. Good strategy is all it is. Short-term flucuations in value don't, or shouldn't, be an indicator of anything. When you invest you're investing long-term or not at all. But taking profits is always a good idea if you think values are near the top of the curve. Sell at the top, short on the way down, then buy-back when low, repeat.
Click to expand...


But we also have a convergence of multiple economic depressors like Obamacare kicking in full effect, confusion about what future tax policies are going to be, the QE tapering being rolled out and oncoming disasters from our relaxing against the war on terrorist groups.

I would pull all my investments...except I already have.


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## Delta4Embassy

Stock investments are stunningly simple. They either go up, go down, or stay about the same. All the other stuff is just used to confuse people, like Legalese. 

"Don't invest on your own, give your money to us to invest for you."


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## Truthmatters

your great predictor thought we would be in hyper inflation now.

His track record isn't as good as you claim OP


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## Zander

Yawn.....

Stock prices fluctuate. But over time, there is no better place to grow your money than the Stock (and bond) market. Individual investors make the mistake of allowing emotions to intervene- they buy at market tops and sell at bottoms. The only antidote to this is a PLAN.

An Investment policy statement (IPS)  is a statement that defines general investment goals and objectives. It describes the strategies that will be used to meet these objectives and contains specific information on subjects such as asset allocation, risk tolerance, and liquidity requirements.

My advice? Create an IPS and stick with it- over the long haul you'll come out way ahead.


----------



## bigrebnc1775

Sallow said:


> I am so glad none of you folks are in charge of nothing important right now.
> 
> And hopefully the House gets cleared out of anti-government fools in November.



Pro obama equals pro tyrant anti America. as soon as we clean the senate of anti America traitors America will be ok.


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## JimBowie1958

Zander said:


> Yawn.....
> 
> Stock prices fluctuate. But over time, there is no better place to grow your money than the Stock (and bond) market. Individual investors make the mistake of allowing emotions to intervene- they buy at market tops and sell at bottoms. The only antidote to this is a PLAN.
> 
> An Investment policy statement (IPS)  is a statement that defines general investment goals and objectives. It describes the strategies that will be used to meet these objectives and contains specific information on subjects such as asset allocation, risk tolerance, and liquidity requirements.
> 
> My advice? Create an IPS and stick with it- over the long haul you'll come out way ahead.



You assume that the plan will be a good plan, and that the market wont have a major large cycle retrace that could return to DOW 12,000. That is a very up hill climb.

Commodities and treasuries are probably safer for the next year or so, I have read.

But YMMV


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## Zander

JimBowie1958 said:


> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> Yawn.....
> 
> Stock prices fluctuate. But over time, there is no better place to grow your money than the Stock (and bond) market. Individual investors make the mistake of allowing emotions to intervene- they buy at market tops and sell at bottoms. The only antidote to this is a PLAN.
> 
> An Investment policy statement (IPS)  is a statement that defines general investment goals and objectives. It describes the strategies that will be used to meet these objectives and contains specific information on subjects such as asset allocation, risk tolerance, and liquidity requirements.
> 
> My advice? Create an IPS and stick with it- over the long haul you'll come out way ahead.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You assume that the plan will be a good plan, and that the market wont have a major large cycle retrace that could return to DOW 12,000. That is a very up hill climb.
> 
> Commodities and treasuries are probably safer for the next year or so, I have read.
> 
> But YMMV
Click to expand...


IMHO, Almost any plan is better than "no plan". Having "no plan" makes you susceptible to scams and emotion based decision making.   Most individual investors sell at market bottoms, and buy at market tops. They get caught up in the roller coaster ride of the market, get frustrated and it costs them a shitload of money. 

If you are investing for the next "year or so" you really are not investing at all- you are speculating. That's fine- but your serious "long term" money should be invested in an asset allocation (AA) that you can stick with_ regardless of short term fluctuations_.  If you are still working and contributing it is even more important to ignore short term fluctuations. 

Personally,  I use a simple 60/40 portfolio model with 6 asset classes. (us stock, int'l stock, reits, US bonds, int'l bonds, and cash). It's a tax efficient and simple to manage portfolio that requires only 15 minutes a year to maintain and re-balance. 

PS- I do play around with a small percentage of my cash account- just for shits and giggles.  But I don't play games with my long term money....EVER.


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## whitehall

Why do we need to bash low information heads with the reality that investors do not trust the United States to lead the economic world? Investors do not trust Barry Hussein's agenda and the democrat party base that supports freaking "occupy wall street" anarchists.


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## SteadyMercury

whitehall said:


> Why do we need to bash low information heads with the reality that investors do not trust the United States to lead the economic world?


Irony, given you appear to be low information head-in-chief.

Global stock funds attract record inflows in 2013: Report


> Last year's flows into stock funds were the largest since records began in 2002. Funds that specialize in U.S. stocks attracted $2.8 billion in the week, bringing inflows to about $115 billion in 2013, data from the report showed.



Investors don't trust the United States... oh except for the 115 billion in stock inflows last year.


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## SteadyMercury

Zander said:


> Personally,  I use a simple 60/40 portfolio model with 6 asset classes. (us stock, int'l stock, reits, US bonds, int'l bonds, and cash). It's a tax efficient and simple to manage portfolio that requires only 15 minutes a year to maintain and re-balance.


Good stuff.

I use a 30/30/30/10 of us stocks, intl stocks, bonds, small cap. All low cost index funds.

Just did my annual rebalance New Year's day, took more than 15 minutes because of the way I have everything split up for tax efficiency but I got 'er done. Good luck in 2014.


----------



## Luddly Neddite

JimBowie1958 said:


> Sallow said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am so glad none of you folks are in charge of nothing important right now.
> 
> And hopefully the House gets cleared out of anti-government fools in November.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Is there a single topic that you libtards don't drag partisan politics into?*
> 
> You absolute fanaticism is turning people off, so it is good to see for that reason.
> 
> And if you think Bernanke and Greenspan were our best economists then you are an idiot.
Click to expand...


... asks the OP who started the thread with an incorrect political statement. 

=====


Where do you invest your money?

Beck's phony gold?


----------



## SteadyMercury

JimBowie1958 said:


> I would pull all my investments...except I already have.


Careful with yanking all your money in and out, you make the wrong call and you miss out on some nice gains. 

Your post from Oct 15 2011 when DIJA was 11,644:



JimBowie1958 said:


> I no longer have any money in the market now. I get the impression that within the next three to six months we are going to see the DOW go back down through 10,000 and maybe 9,000 or lower.



Of course DIJA didn't fall below 11k and finished the year at 12,217. You missed out because of attempts at market timing pulling all your money in and out.


----------



## JimBowie1958

Zander said:


> JimBowie1958 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zander said:
> 
> 
> 
> Yawn.....
> 
> Stock prices fluctuate. But over time, there is no better place to grow your money than the Stock (and bond) market. Individual investors make the mistake of allowing emotions to intervene- they buy at market tops and sell at bottoms. The only antidote to this is a PLAN.
> 
> An Investment policy statement (IPS)  is a statement that defines general investment goals and objectives. It describes the strategies that will be used to meet these objectives and contains specific information on subjects such as asset allocation, risk tolerance, and liquidity requirements.
> 
> My advice? Create an IPS and stick with it- over the long haul you'll come out way ahead.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You assume that the plan will be a good plan, and that the market wont have a major large cycle retrace that could return to DOW 12,000. That is a very up hill climb.
> 
> Commodities and treasuries are probably safer for the next year or so, I have read.
> 
> But YMMV
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> IMHO, Almost any plan is better than "no plan". Having "no plan" makes you susceptible to scams and emotion based decision making.   Most individual investors sell at market bottoms, and buy at market tops. They get caught up in the roller coaster ride of the market, get frustrated and it costs them a shitload of money.
> 
> If you are investing for the next "year or so" you really are not investing at all- you are speculating. That's fine- but your serious "long term" money should be invested in an asset allocation (AA) that you can stick with_ regardless of short term fluctuations_.  If you are still working and contributing it is even more important to ignore short term fluctuations.
> 
> Personally,  I use a simple 60/40 portfolio model with 6 asset classes. (us stock, int'l stock, reits, US bonds, int'l bonds, and cash). It's a tax efficient and simple to manage portfolio that requires only 15 minutes a year to maintain and re-balance.
> 
> PS- I do play around with a small percentage of my cash account- just for shits and giggles.  But I don't play games with my long term money....EVER.
Click to expand...


You sound like you are knowledgeable enough to do things right.

In contrast we have.....

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMLGZkm4Xd8]THE WOLF OF WALL STREET 'Become' Trailer - YouTube[/ame]


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## JimBowie1958

SteadyMercury said:


> JimBowie1958 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I would pull all my investments...except I already have.
> 
> 
> 
> Careful with yanking all your money in and out, you make the wrong call and you miss out on some nice gains.
> 
> Your post from Oct 15 2011 when DIJA was 11,644:
> 
> 
> 
> JimBowie1958 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I no longer have any money in the market now. I get the impression that within the next three to six months we are going to see the DOW go back down through 10,000 and maybe 9,000 or lower.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Of course DIJA didn't fall below 11k and finished the year at 12,217. You missed out because of attempts at market timing pulling all your money in and out.
Click to expand...


Yeah, I wish I could exactly predict what the market is going to do, but alas.....We are doing fine. Not rich but I have a nice amount saved up,  suitable enough for me. I don't believe in gambling with the nest eggs, ya know?

But when to exit with an oncoming crash, it's hard to call but not really a gamble. You are choosing to NOT gamble and keep your money safe.

It's like getting off the Titanic because you see a hole in the side and it's taking on water. You don't know exactly when the water will come rushing in, but should that stop you from doing what is prudent?

Might miss a few brewskies, some nice dancing, and great steak, etc, but being in a life boat by the time everyone else is running to the few left is priceless.


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## JimBowie1958

Luddly Neddite said:


> JimBowie1958 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sallow said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am so glad none of you folks are in charge of nothing important right now.
> 
> And hopefully the House gets cleared out of anti-government fools in November.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Is there a single topic that you libtards don't drag partisan politics into?*
> 
> You absolute fanaticism is turning people off, so it is good to see for that reason.
> 
> And if you think Bernanke and Greenspan were our best economists then you are an idiot.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> ... asks the OP who started the thread with an incorrect political statement. .
Click to expand...


Says the coward who fails to give a link to claimed statement.




Luddly Neddite said:


> Where do you invest your money?
> 
> Beck's phony gold?



Treasuries.


----------



## SteadyMercury

JimBowie1958 said:


> Yeah, I wish I could exactly predict what the market is going to do, but alas.....


Sure would be easy then wouldn't it?




JimBowie1958 said:


> But when to exit with an oncoming crash, it's hard to call but not really a gamble. You are choosing to NOT gamble and keep your money safe.


Yanking all your money in and out of the market based on speculation of what will happen in the near future is just as much gambling as people who just buy and hold. 

Don't get me wrong I'm not faulting it I'm sure some people do quite well with market timing, but lets not pretend it is a less risky way to invest. Your risk is getting back in right when shit goes south, and getting out right before shit goes north.

Good luck in 2014.


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## Truthmatters

Glen Beck has gold to sell


the minions will buy if you place fear in their silly hearts.

history proves it


----------



## JimBowie1958

SteadyMercury said:


> whitehall said:
> 
> 
> 
> Why do we need to bash low information heads with the reality that investors do not trust the United States to lead the economic world?
> 
> 
> 
> Irony, given you appear to be low information head-in-chief.
> 
> Global stock funds attract record inflows in 2013: Report
> 
> 
> 
> Last year's flows into stock funds were the largest since records began in 2002. Funds that specialize in U.S. stocks attracted $2.8 billion in the week, bringing inflows to about $115 billion in 2013, data from the report showed.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Investors don't trust the United States... oh except for the 115 billion in stock inflows last year.
Click to expand...


At $85 billion a month, I doubt that that 'inflation' came from anyone more than Federal Reserve banks.


----------



## JimBowie1958

Truthmatters said:


> Glen Beck has gold to sell
> 
> 
> the minions will buy if you place fear in their silly hearts.
> 
> history proves it



A good investor will buy precious metals any year, just to keep some balance in their portfolio.


----------



## JimBowie1958

SteadyMercury said:


> JimBowie1958 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, I wish I could exactly predict what the market is going to do, but alas.....
> 
> 
> 
> Sure would be easy then wouldn't it?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> JimBowie1958 said:
> 
> 
> 
> But when to exit with an oncoming crash, it's hard to call but not really a gamble. You are choosing to NOT gamble and keep your money safe.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> *Yanking all your money in and out of the market based on speculation of what will happen in the near future is just as much gambling as people who just buy and hold.*
> 
> Don't get me wrong I'm not faulting it I'm sure some people do quite well with market timing, but lets not pretend it is a less risky way to invest. Your risk is getting back in right when shit goes south, and getting out right before shit goes north.
> 
> Good luck in 2014.
Click to expand...


Walking away from the black jack table while you still have winnings in your pocket is to NOT gamble, sir.


----------



## SteadyMercury

JimBowie1958 said:


> Walking away from the black jack table while you still have winnings in your pocket is to NOT gamble, sir.


It is if you plan on coming back to the table when you feel the deck might be hotter.

I can't believe I'm seeing someone claim that yanking all your money in and out of the stock market based on speculation of future events isn't gambling, but people who just leave their money in are. Hilarious.


----------



## Zander

JimBowie1958 said:


> SteadyMercury said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> JimBowie1958 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, I wish I could exactly predict what the market is going to do, but alas.....
> 
> 
> 
> Sure would be easy then wouldn't it?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> JimBowie1958 said:
> 
> 
> 
> But when to exit with an oncoming crash, it's hard to call but not really a gamble. You are choosing to NOT gamble and keep your money safe.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> *Yanking all your money in and out of the market based on speculation of what will happen in the near future is just as much gambling as people who just buy and hold.*
> 
> Don't get me wrong I'm not faulting it I'm sure some people do quite well with market timing, but lets not pretend it is a less risky way to invest. Your risk is getting back in right when shit goes south, and getting out right before shit goes north.
> 
> Good luck in 2014.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Walking away from the black jack table while you still have winnings in your pocket is to NOT gamble, sir.
Click to expand...


There are market timers that have excellent track records. The best ones use a mechanical system with easy to follow entry and exit strategies that eliminate emotion based decision making. 

One that comes to mind is Sy Harding. He uses a seasonal timing strategy that has beaten the broad market and with less risk.  Here is a link- STREET SMART REPORT

That being said- I still think most investors are better off with a buy and hold strategy. Especially people that are still contributing to their retirement accounts.  

I've spent a lifetime investing and studying the stock, bond, and commodity markets and I was a licensed series 3 commodities broker for a number of years. I always thought I had a "high risk tolerance", only to learn that I really only had a "high risk tolerance" when using my clients money!! My personal money was a different story! That's when I made the switch to a more passive strategy. It's also when I decided to exit the financial services industry.  Hard to sell something you don't believe in....


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## JimBowie1958

SteadyMercury said:


> JimBowie1958 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Walking away from the black jack table while you still have winnings in your pocket is to NOT gamble, sir.
> 
> 
> 
> It is if you plan on coming back to the table when you feel the deck might be hotter.
> 
> I can't believe I'm seeing someone claim that yanking all your money in and out of the stock market based on speculation of future events isn't gambling, but people who just leave their money in are. Hilarious.
Click to expand...


1. I do not claim that yanking money in and out of the stock market is in and of itself a clever thing. I am nearing retirement, God Willing, and so I refuse to gamble my money in the stock market. That is what I meant when I said I took m y money off the table and no, I do not plan on getting back in, unless the DOW goes down to like 7,000 then I will put some in to ride it back up, maybe 20% max. That would be a gamble. But my funds are no longer going to be exposed to the stock markets idiocy, the high frequency trading bots, the Federal Reserve's whims, etc.

2. Not gambling with your  savings is to NOT gamble with your savings. Funny how that works.


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## william the wie

A balanced portfolio like Steady Mercury uses is a timing mechanism, not buy and hold, also it is much simpler, safer and more profitable to hedge in and out of markets with covered options. Trying to time with the STS (Sy Harding's technique) works 85% of the time, the census timer about 60-80% of the time and the presidential cycle 75+%. While good and better than buy and hold downturns and upturns are not adequately predictable. Balanced portfolios combined with hedging is much safer.


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## SteadyMercury

JimBowie1958 said:


> 1. I do not claim that yanking money in and out of the stock market is in and of itself a clever thing. I am nearing retirement, God Willing, and so I refuse to gamble my money in the stock market.


You claimed in a post from Oct 2011 that you had taken all your money out of investments because you predicted DIJA going under 10k, documenting a poor decision that cost you some gains. Then in this thread you claimed you just did it again, which means at some point you piled your money back in at a higher cost.

You can say you refuse to gamble all you want, but your posts indicate otherwise.




JimBowie1958 said:


> 2. Not gambling with your  savings is to NOT gamble with your savings. Funny how that works.


Yup, keep on bragging about your moves in and out of the market with the other side of your mouth.


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## JimBowie1958

SteadyMercury said:


> JimBowie1958 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 1. I do not claim that yanking money in and out of the stock market is in and of itself a clever thing. I am nearing retirement, God Willing, and so I refuse to gamble my money in the stock market.
> 
> 
> 
> You claimed in a post from Oct 2011 that you had taken all your money out of investments because you predicted DIJA going under 10k, documenting a poor decision that cost you some gains. Then in this thread you claimed you just did it again, which means at some point you piled your money back in at a higher cost.
> 
> You can say you refuse to gamble all you want, but your posts indicate otherwise.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> JimBowie1958 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 2. Not gambling with your  savings is to NOT gamble with your savings. Funny how that works.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Yup, keep on bragging about your moves in and out of the market with the other side of your mouth.
Click to expand...


Lol, you seem to have a difficulty understanding what I am saying. I had some money in a thrift savings plan that was about 30% fast growth, 30% treasuries, and 40% overseas investments. 

I took my money out in June of 2007, not 20011, and I have stayed out, with everything in treasuries.

There is no back and forth, etc, as I was in and now I am out.

That is not gambling, that is you with a reading comprehension problem.


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## SteadyMercury

Gotcha you aren't an investor at all, you're one of those guys just sitting on the sidelines talking about how the market will crash while others reaped the gains of a once in a generation bull market.


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## JimBowie1958

SteadyMercury said:


> Gotcha you aren't an investor at all, you're one of those guys just sitting on the sidelines talking about how the market will crash while others reaped the gains of a once in a generation bull market.



Lol, I have invested and am still invested.

And you are a dumbass.

Welcome to my ignore list, bitch.


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## Toro

As a "top investor," I too have started dumping stocks.  

Having said that, I would pay little attention to "technicians" calling for a 70% decline in the market.


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## JimBowie1958

Toro said:


> As a "top investor," I too have started dumping stocks.
> 
> Having said that, I would pay little attention to "technicians" calling for a 70% decline in the market.



Yeah, 70% sounds a bit extreme to me as well. We see that kind of downturn and I think we will have a lot more problems than mere stock values.

I think we will see something around 10,000 to 11,000 or so, not 5,000 on the DOW.


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## SteadyMercury

JimBowie1958 said:


> I think we will see something around 10,000 to 11,000 or so, not 5,000 on the DOW.



Just like last time you made that call and the market went the other way?

Don't quit your day job, rube.


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## Zander

Toro said:


> As a "top investor," I too have started dumping stocks.
> 
> Having said that, I would pay little attention to "technicians" calling for a 70% decline in the market.



Toro, can you define "dumping"? what percentage did you sell?


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## JimBowie1958

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> As a "top investor," I too have started dumping stocks.
> 
> Having said that, I would pay little attention to "technicians" calling for a 70% decline in the market.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro, can you define "dumping"? what percentage did you sell?
Click to expand...


I thought that 'dumping' meant pretty much selling a large amount at market orders.

What does it mean in your opinion?


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## Toro

Zander said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> As a "top investor," I too have started dumping stocks.
> 
> Having said that, I would pay little attention to "technicians" calling for a 70% decline in the market.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toro, can you define "dumping"? what percentage did you sell?
Click to expand...


I've sold a quarter of my investment positions and am 75% long. I will sell another 15% within the next month or two. I will most likely sell more by April. However, I will trade around the trend. For example, if the market pulls back a few more percent, I will likely buy ETFs to trade with an eye on selling them a few weeks after.


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## Toro

JimBowie1958 said:


> Toro said:
> 
> 
> 
> As a "top investor," I too have started dumping stocks.
> 
> Having said that, I would pay little attention to "technicians" calling for a 70% decline in the market.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, 70% sounds a bit extreme to me as well. We see that kind of downturn and I think we will have a lot more problems than mere stock values.
> 
> I think we will see something around 10,000 to 11,000 or so, not 5,000 on the DOW.
Click to expand...


I don't know what will happen, but a 30%-40% decline isn't unreasonable. Not highly probable but not unreasonable either.


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## ashleyjames389

i heard Warren Buffet recently increased his holding in U.S. Bancorp, Goldman Sachs and Exxon


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## PC_Geek

> Top Investers Start Dumping Stocks, Signal to Exit DOW?


This so called "news article" has been repeated since a year ago. If you scroll down you will see that they are trying to sell a $47 book or newsletter. Someone in the Kitko forum exposed this phony "news article" with several links.


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## JimBowie1958

PC_Geek said:


> Top Investers Start Dumping Stocks, Signal to Exit DOW?
> 
> 
> 
> This so called "news article" has been repeated since a year ago. If you scroll down you will see that they are trying to sell a $47 book or newsletter. Someone in the Kitko forum exposed this phony "news article" with several links.
Click to expand...


Some analysts have noted some things about the stock markets that should discourage real people from investing and monitoring their own accounts.

The High Frequency Trading programs trade stock in micro-seconds and are given a few hundred microseconds lead on the data by piping the market data through the HFT trading super computers. They also use these programs to push the markets in the direction they want them to go. HFTs now represent about 70% of the trading on the markets.

The Quantitative Easing program, where the Federal Reserve is simply giving money to Wall Street banks by buying worthless securities from those banks at their original prices, that program has been propping up the markets at $85 BILLION PER MONTH, reducing the value of all USD held by each of us. Guess Wall Street is so important that it is OK by Congress if the rest of us see our savings cut by 50% or more in purchasing power.

What happens when QE ends? What happens when all the little trading algos get sell orders all at the same time?

What happens to foreign investors who lose confidence in the USD when OPEC announces that they will accept payment in any currency and not just USD now?

What happens when people realize that this is the most over-bought stock market in decades?

So yes, some people have been expecting the markets to go deep south for a few years now, but the Federal Reserve is taking huge risks of public exposure to their shenanigans if they keep running QE forever.

Sooner or later the mind boggling thefts have to end and the props to the stock market along with them.

And just because there is an add on the same page about buying a damned book for those who want more facts does not negate the Truth about what has been told.

This market is going to make a huge correction at some point, like 30 to 40% is my guess.


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## Luddly Neddite

And aren't you all glad that Social Security funds are not dependent on the stock market?

Hmmmmmmmm ??




~


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## JimBowie1958

Luddly Neddite said:


> And aren't you all glad that Social Security funds are not dependent on the stock market?
> 
> Hmmmmmmmm ??
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ~



And the whim of Congress is any better?

How long do you think Congress will honor all those Treasuries they have given to social security once it goes deep red?

Congress is looking for the first excuse to keel haul social security.

It would have been FAR better off as an actual investment program instead of the fraud it is today, just another item on the general budget in all practical consideration.


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## PC_Geek

The theme for the last few years has been "Don't fight the Fed". Do you really think they are going to yank the carpet out from under the stock market? They're going to do all they can to keep QE Infinity going as Peter Schiff calls it.


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## william the wie

PC_Geek said:


> The theme for the last few years has been "Don't fight the Fed". Do you really think they are going to yank the carpet out from under the stock market? They're going to do all they can to keep QE Infinity going as Peter Schiff calls it.


Lots of potential exogenous shocks from the EU, Far East and technology. The fed can't do squat about that.


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## DrainBamage

Zander said:


> Yawn.....
> 
> Stock prices fluctuate. But over time, there is no better place to grow your money than the Stock (and bond) market. Individual investors make the mistake of allowing emotions to intervene- they buy at market tops and sell at bottoms. The only antidote to this is a PLAN.
> 
> An Investment policy statement (IPS)  is a statement that defines general investment goals and objectives. It describes the strategies that will be used to meet these objectives and contains specific information on subjects such as asset allocation, risk tolerance, and liquidity requirements.
> 
> My advice? Create an IPS and stick with it- over the long haul you'll come out way ahead.


You nailed it. There are so many of these threads talking about the coming crash, it is hilarious to read through them and imagine how much money it would cost people if they followed through on their claims of going to cash.

Bonus hilarity is all the folks who guaranteed a crash when QE ended, since surely the markets were only at those levels because propped up by Fed monthly purchases. Here we are well over two years since EQ3 and fools are exposed as fools.


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