# Tracking the el nino



## ScienceRocks (Apr 26, 2015)

CFSv2 showing the strongest El Niño event on record, with an ONI of +2.6C, higher than 1997's peak value of +2.4C







 This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 1100x850.









Niño 4=+1.3ºC
Niño 3.4=+1.1ºC
Niño 3=+1.2ºC
Niño1+2=+0.7ºC

We're heading towards a big one!  If this does it we will be over .8c on giss and noaa.


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## Stephanie (Apr 26, 2015)

I don't know how you ever get any sleep. You're always freaking over the weather, climate on the earth, the environment, etc

Like you and all these politicians can wave a magic wand that will  cost us taxpayers, billions of dollars.......................and CHANGE IT


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## CrusaderFrank (Apr 26, 2015)

Don't forget to add in the warming from the deep sea thermal vents, then we'll really be THE WARMEREST 2015 EVAHHHHHHH!!!!!


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## ScienceRocks (Apr 26, 2015)

The anti-science and anti-government people are here. LOL


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## Stephanie (Apr 26, 2015)

Matthew said:


> The anti-science and anti-government people are here. LOL



Do you know just how stupid that sounds. ANTI anti anti anti SCENCE, anti Guberment stealing more OF OUR MONIES for usless crap.

 seriously give it up. you can be a tool if that's what you want


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## CrusaderFrank (Apr 26, 2015)

Warmers, Decline Hiders, AGWCultists and EnviroMarxists lend me your ears. We've come to bury your idotic beliefs not doubt them. The science really is settled, you've been caught with your thumb on the scale for the last time. Real scientists are now looking at your "research" and asking "Dafuq is going on here?!!"


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## Politico (Apr 26, 2015)

Stephanie said:


> I don't know how you ever get any sleep. You're always freaking over the weather, climate on the earth, the environment, etc
> 
> Like you and all these politicians can wave a magic wand that will  cost us taxpayers, billions of dollars.......................and CHANGE IT


Until everyone but him gets an electric car and a composting toilet he will never rest lol.


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## CrusaderFrank (Apr 26, 2015)

Does gullible warming cause El Ninos???


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## Stephanie (Apr 26, 2015)

Politico said:


> Stephanie said:
> 
> 
> > I don't know how you ever get any sleep. You're always freaking over the weather, climate on the earth, the environment, etc
> ...




probably...lol
he should be a politician. or heck maybe he is...sheeesh


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## CrusaderFrank (Apr 26, 2015)

Matthew said:


> The anti-science and anti-government people are here. LOL



Consensus and denier are anti-science words


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## Billy_Bob (Apr 26, 2015)

Stephanie said:


> Politico said:
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> > Stephanie said:
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Paid Think Progress poster... All you have to do is look at his sources.


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## Billy_Bob (Apr 26, 2015)

EL NADA is about to go away with a vengeance as cooler water is now cycling and a La Nina is building...






Were about to have a serious drop in ocean temps.. And Mathew is hoping like hell it will last through may and the Paris convention... At current rate of decline we will go negative mid May.


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## Billy_Bob (Apr 26, 2015)

guno said:


> Stephanie said:
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> > I don't know how you ever get any sleep. You're always freaking over the weather, climate on the earth, the environment, etc
> ...




Don't you just hate it when liberals are exposed... For what they are....


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## ScienceRocks (Apr 26, 2015)

LOL,

This nino will be at least 1.5 at 3.4 by June. It is typical in a strong nino for the western pacific to cool as the warm water moves eastward.

I made this thread to watch possible history...Not so much to whine about global warming.


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## ScienceRocks (Apr 26, 2015)

Also that map is old! My chart in the op comes from a meteorology discussion board called storm2k.

Here is the current sea surface anomalies.


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## ScienceRocks (Apr 26, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> guno said:
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How have you exposed anyone in this thread? I am just here to watch the developing nino and all you can do is attack. Grow up.


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## ScienceRocks (Apr 26, 2015)

Stephanie said:


> Matthew said:
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> > The anti-science and anti-government people are here. LOL
> ...



Thousands of people per year would die from tornadoes, hurricanes and severe weather if we didn't spend that money on our nws. Of course, you don't believe in America and don't believe in spending money outside of blowing up other countries.

How do you feel about the buoyies, satellites or even the highly weather data we enjoy. Oh'yeah,,,that is another boondoggoo!!!

How about you give it up??? I pray to god logical people laugh you out the window in 2016.

And yes, I agree with you on law enforcement and some social issues but you're getting insane otherwise. Your ideas on things as this are as dangerous as the lefts idea on law enforcement.


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## Billy_Bob (Apr 26, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Is the Blob causing El Nino?


There is a cooling undercurrent that is about to wipe out any warming that we have seen.  The change has already happened in the arctic deep water cold return.


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## Old Rocks (Apr 26, 2015)

OK, Billy Boob, we have your firm forecast. Cooling starting at the end of next week, and no El Nino throught the summer. I am going to remind you of this forecast every week for as long as this El Nino lasts.


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## ScienceRocks (Apr 27, 2015)

Anomalies for this week, will later be official. CPC will declare Moderate Niño and BOM will declare Niño tomorrow

First +1C anomaly for the year

Niño 4=+1.3ºC
Niño 3.4=+1.0ºC
Niño 3=+1.0ºC
Niño1+2=+1.5ºC

Only a complete idiot would think we're cooling and won't have a nino. Someone without a clue of what they're talking about!


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## ScienceRocks (Apr 27, 2015)

1C in an April weekly update is impressive. Even 1997 did not achieve that until the last week of May.


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## jc456 (Apr 27, 2015)

Stephanie said:


> Matthew said:
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> 
> > The anti-science and anti-government people are here. LOL
> ...


the old saying, once a dick, always a dick.


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## ScienceRocks (Apr 27, 2015)

well, page 5 has the new chart and information. We're up to 1.0 at 3.4!  So we will have a moderate nino. We're rising as we were around .5 a month ago...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf


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## jc456 (Apr 27, 2015)

Matthew said:


> well, page 5 has the new chart and information. We're up to 1.0 at 3.4!  So we will have a moderate nino. We're rising as we were around .5 a month ago...
> 
> http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf


don't care.  fact is there is no el nino and won't be.  See you in September as the song goes.


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## Old Rocks (Apr 27, 2015)

Ah, another firm forecast. LOL


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## jc456 (Apr 30, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Ah, another firm forecast. LOL


much better than the stupid link posted.  

I quote from the report:
"Since the beginning of April, increased ridging (and above-average temperatures) has_* occurred over most *_of the U.S."

what a bunch of poop.  That is so wrong it isn't even funny.  Where do they think the US begins and ends?  Even St. Louis had below temps.  huh?  they'd be smokin, smokin.


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## Coloradomtnman (Apr 30, 2015)

Matthew said:


> CFSv2 showing the strongest El Niño event on record, with an ONI of +2.6C, higher than 1997's peak value of +2.4C
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It's not "the" El Niño:


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## mamooth (Apr 30, 2015)

The good news. A strong El Nino means lots of rain next fall and winter for California.

The bad news, that will mean lots of mudslides, as the rain hits the burned over areas. Fire season is just starting, and it will be a bad one.


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## Billy_Bob (May 2, 2015)

Volcanic Heat mistaken for strengthening El Nino.



> PORTLAND, Ore. (Reuters) - An undersea volcano about 300 miles (480 km) off Oregon's coast has been spewing lava for the past seven days, confirming forecasts made last fall and giving researchers unique insight into a hidden ocean hot spot, a scientist said on Friday.
> 
> Researchers know of two previous eruptions by the volcano, dubbed "Axial Seamount" for its location along the axis of an underwater mountain ridge, Oregon State University geologist Bill Chadwick said on Friday. But those 1998 and 2011 eruptions were detected months or years afterward, Chadwick added.
> 
> Last year, researchers connected monitoring gear to an undersea cable that, for the first time, allowed them to gather live data on the volcano, whose peak is about 4,900 feet (1,500 meters) below the ocean surface.



Yep... its been erupting on and off for months adding heat... Along with several others in the mid ocean..

Source


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## Old Rocks (May 3, 2015)

You silly little liar, show where in the article that there was even mention of the El Nino.


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## mamooth (May 3, 2015)

The "it's all undersea volcanoes!" theory is particularly stupid.

First, it posits that there's been a recent massive increase in undersea vulcanism to cause the warming. It would have to be an absolutely immense increase, on the order of a hundredfold. There is zero evidence of such  a thing.

Second, it posits that the heat from these undersea volcanoes defies standard physics. If there were such volcanoes, the hotspots from them would be clearly visible in ocean temps. But nope, there's not a single such hotspot seen anywhere. The heat from these undersea volcanoes must be magical, in that it can apparently heat the air without heating the intervening oceans.

And since it's such an insane theory, we expect Billy to believe it.


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## ScienceRocks (May 3, 2015)




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## Billy_Bob (May 3, 2015)

\


As the world cools and the anomaly disintegrates...


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## ScienceRocks (May 4, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> \
> 
> 
> As the world cools and the anomaly disintegrates...




Your a fucking idiot...


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## ScienceRocks (May 4, 2015)

ECMWF plumes..If this gets to 1.5 or even 2c like this says = wow!!!!






Update this week should be at +1.0C


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## ScienceRocks (May 4, 2015)

This week
Niño 4=+1.4°C
Niño 3.4=+1.0°C
Niño 3=+1.0°C
Niño 1+2=+1.9°C

El Nino at +1.0C and ONI up to +0.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf


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## Old Rocks (May 4, 2015)

Going to be an interesting year.


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## jc456 (May 4, 2015)

Matthew said:


> ECMWF plumes..If this gets to 1.5 or even 2c like this says = wow!!!!
> 
> 
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> ...


Paaalease


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## ScienceRocks (May 4, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Matthew said:
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> > ECMWF plumes..If this gets to 1.5 or even 2c like this says = wow!!!!
> ...



And what do you disagree with?


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## jc456 (May 4, 2015)

Matthew said:


> jc456 said:
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All of it.


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## Old Rocks (May 4, 2015)

So, jc, you know better than all the scientists at NOAA, and in the other nations tracking the present El Nino?


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## ScienceRocks (May 4, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> So, jc, you know better than all the scientists at NOAA, and in the other nations tracking the present El Nino?




   No wonder they think all of our science institutions are worthless and that they know it all. Jezzz. *These people belong in a mental institution* if they believe that.


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## ScienceRocks (May 4, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Matthew said:
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So, you disagree with the buoy reports??? And you think that the computer models that have increased our ability to forecast the weather 100 fold are also worthless. Laughable!


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## ScienceRocks (May 4, 2015)

Latest (a little over a week ago) Jason-2 satellite via sea surface heights depicting an evolving canonical (traditional) El Nino underway.






 This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 949x759.






Another computer model for later this year.


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## Old Rocks (May 4, 2015)

Arctic News

*And then there is this, not a model, but an actual measurement.*


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## westwall (May 4, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> So, jc, you know better than all the scientists at NOAA, and in the other nations tracking the present El Nino?








They claimed that ever increasing CO2 would cause the global temperature to rise "inexorably", independent of natural variation, so yeah, as scientists they suck.


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## Billy_Bob (May 4, 2015)

Matthew said:


> This week
> Niño 4=+1.4°C
> Niño 3.4=+1.0°C
> Niño 3=+1.0°C
> ...



I know all about NOAA modeling... The empirical facts however are showing something quite different..


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## IanC (May 5, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Latest (a little over a week ago) Jason-2 satellite via sea surface heights depicting an evolving canonical (traditional) El Nino underway.
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interesting....so what you are saying is that the current conditions are at odds with the last 20 years of SLR?






here is an animation of the last twenty years of ENSO


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## jc456 (May 5, 2015)

Matthew said:


> jc456 said:
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Are they bouy reports or models?


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## ScienceRocks (May 6, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Matthew said:
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The current sst(temperature) data are buoy reports of oceanic temperature, while the predictions are models. Most meteorology and climate forecasting is done by models as forecasting by hand wouldn't go out more then 48 hours...

Here is another set of models...If this is anywhere close to being accurate= one of the strongest nino's in history. I'll just say that the models for enso don't seem to be highly accurate.


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## jc456 (May 6, 2015)

Matthew said:


> jc456 said:
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yeah yeah I get that, but where is the actual data?  They can say on Monday that the five day forecast is X and the next day, that forecast is for shit and now we get to Y, and then later in the evening it gets to be something different again.  Models are a guess.  Only observed is what I'm interested in.  And there isn't any posted without fudging the datasets.  Now I find that outrageous.


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## ScienceRocks (May 6, 2015)

Here is the buoyies in real time.

National Data Buoy Center


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## jc456 (May 6, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Here is the buoyies in real time.
> 
> National Data Buoy Center


so I went to the link and looked up bouys with historical data and wouldn't you know only about 3 are in the area for a el nino.  So how is it you have charts that show an increase in any bouy that adds legitimacy to your claim?


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## Billy_Bob (May 7, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Matthew said:
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> > Here is the buoyies in real time.
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He doesn't.  And NOAA is poking and hoping for the UN Power Grab happening later this year in Paris.  We were plotting the deep cold hitting the equatorial region and found that it is killing heat in the mid latitude regions rapidly. New modeling shows we could drop into La Nina rapidly around mid June but the current El Nino is doomed in short order in any event.

If we do plummet the equatorial ocean temps mid June as the cold southern oceans are pulled northward its result will be a very cold winter in the US this next year. The AMO is once again shifting cold. The PDO is also shifting colder. Its going to be a substantial shift, when it happens, and it will be felt globally.

Once again facts show the alarmist hype to be over blown and wishful thinking.


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## Old Rocks (May 7, 2015)

Oh my, our religious expert is now stating is IQ level in politics. And making dingbat predictions concerning climate and the ENSO. Interesting that you are now acknowledging the El Nino you stated did not exist. And have you done a little research into the relative sizes of molecules? You were about a magnitude off when you last addressed the subject, dumbkopf.


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## Billy_Bob (May 7, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> jc456 said:
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> > Matthew said:
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its already affecting the surface temperatures.


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## Billy_Bob (May 7, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Oh my, our religious expert is now stating is IQ level in politics. And making dingbat predictions concerning climate and the ENSO. Interesting that you are now acknowledging the El Nino you stated did not exist. And have you done a little research into the relative sizes of molecules? You were about a magnitude off when you last addressed the subject, dumbkopf.



Yes Old Fraud we understand that you and your religion cant understand basic molecular weight and bonding, or how it might affect it in our atmosphere..  But, you shouldn't be so hard on yourself calling yourself A "Dumbkof" accurate as it may be however..


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## Billy_Bob (May 7, 2015)

The cooling AMO... its happening now..


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## ScienceRocks (May 11, 2015)

Latest update has El Niño at +1.0C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Investing in science is important...We do need more buoyies...Would be nice!


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## jc456 (May 11, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Latest update has El Niño at +1.0C
> 
> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
> Investing in science is important...We do need more buoyies...Would be nice!


so I see you ignored my response. i called bullshit.  You gave me a link and the link says your full of bullshit.


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## ScienceRocks (May 11, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Matthew said:
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> > Latest update has El Niño at +1.0C
> ...




There's far more buoys and ships in that area then you said. Every little yellow dot is one!!! That is a fact anti-science piece of shit. Now go fuck yourself.

I call bullshit on your worthless backwards movement. You're truly the Taliban of this country...I use to think otherwise but I was a fool as Bush was a reasonable leader for your movement. Reasonable, as he believed in accountability, not pure idiocy. Keep playing up cut, slash and burn and lose the moderates. All of us...Make my fucking day!


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## jc456 (May 11, 2015)

Matthew said:


> jc456 said:
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Then why did I not see them in the link you provided?
By the way, what is it I've done?


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## ScienceRocks (May 11, 2015)

More buoys, more satellites and more data is needed. We don't get this by cut, slash and burning to the ground of our science institutions. Only the isis would do such shit.


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## jc456 (May 11, 2015)

Matthew said:


> More buoys, more satellites and more data is needed. We don't get this by cut, slash and burning to the ground of our science institutions. Only the isis would do such shit.


I did? When?S0n, I've merely asked for evidence of your weird scenario which you failed to provide. That's on you


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## IanC (May 12, 2015)

Matthew said:


> More buoys, more satellites and more data is needed. We don't get this by cut, slash and burning to the ground of our science institutions. Only the isis would do such shit.




hey Matt, have you seen the latest ENSO article over at Curry's blog? interesting read. the anchovies usually move when an El Nino is coming but they havent so far.


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## mamooth (May 12, 2015)

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology announces an active El Nino. The Australian standards for an El Nino are a lot higher, so they're later to the party.

ENSO Wrap-Up

However, a few cranks say it can't be so. A handful of hysterical cranks vs. the whole world, so the cranks must be right.


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## ScienceRocks (May 12, 2015)

Are you assholes really going to deny el nino? There's dozens of buoy's and we also have satellite data to support them. I don't think you believe in anything and that is why you think it isn't worth studying. So if it isn't worth it...Why are you in my thread?

Pretty much what you're saying to me is stop studying our planet and abolish some of the best science institutions on earth. That doesn't fly within my mind.


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## jc456 (May 12, 2015)

mamooth said:


> The Australian Bureau of Meteorology announces an active El Nino. The Australian standards for an El Nino are a lot higher, so they're later to the party.
> 
> ENSO Wrap-Up
> 
> However, a few cranks say it can't be so. A handful of hysterical cranks vs. the whole world, so the cranks must be right.


hysterical? who would that be?  I know I pointed out the link Matt provided didn't show any el nino.  sorry, but it was his link!!!! BTW, still no evidence.


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## jc456 (May 12, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Are you assholes really going to deny el nino? There's dozens of buoy's and we also have satellite data to support them. I don't think you believe in anything and that is why you think it isn't worth studying. So if it isn't worth it...Why are you in my thread?
> 
> Pretty much what you're saying to me is stop studying our planet and abolish some of the best science institutions on earth. That doesn't fly within my mind.


dozens of bouys where?  I showed you the picture from the link you provided, there were only three showing any change.  So where are the dozen at on the site?


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## mamooth (May 12, 2015)

The 3 blinking buoys are clearly labeled "Tsunami station in event mode". That doesn't mean there were only 3 buoys sending temp data.

What's more, that buoy map does not include the ~4000 Argo floats. Those "rest" at 1000m down, so they are not considered buoys.

Now, go look at the charts at this link.

ENSO Wrap-Up

Is everything there also a conspiracy?


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## Billy_Bob (May 12, 2015)

Matthew said:


> jc456 said:
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Matthew has got being a moron down pat...






Your massive warming is NOT PRESENT.  The BBC used all reds in their graph to create fear where none should be. Its Alarmist tripe..  A lie.. A ruse...  The BBC article was meant to induce fear from a lie.... My GOD you fucking idiots will try anything..DESPERATION MODE...

You do realize that the Mean Temp has now dropped below +1.0 deg Mean for the ENSO region 3-4 and that its high point was 1.3 +deg C and it has been dropping for three weeks.


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## ScienceRocks (May 12, 2015)

El nino certainly is kicking ass in the sst department globally.

Global ssta for April are the warmest on record for April. Warmer then 1998, 2010, etc.


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## ScienceRocks (May 12, 2015)

This is all you need to see that there's a nino!!!


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## jc456 (May 13, 2015)

Matthew said:


> El nino certainly is kicking ass in the sst department globally.
> 
> Global ssta for April are the warmest on record for April. Warmer then 1998, 2010, etc.


where's the image?


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## jc456 (May 13, 2015)

mamooth said:


> The 3 blinking buoys are clearly labeled "Tsunami station in event mode". That doesn't mean there were only 3 buoys sending temp data.
> 
> What's more, that buoy map does not include the ~4000 Argo floats. Those "rest" at 1000m down, so they are not considered buoys.
> 
> ...


so the water temp at 1000mm down is warmer than the surface? ok Francis.


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## jc456 (May 13, 2015)

mamooth said:


> The 3 blinking buoys are clearly labeled "Tsunami station in event mode". That doesn't mean there were only 3 buoys sending temp data.
> 
> What's more, that buoy map does not include the ~4000 Argo floats. Those "rest" at 1000m down, so they are not considered buoys.
> 
> ...


dude/ dudette, what the hell are you on?  here's a quote from article in the link you posted from Australia....

"El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend towards El Niño levels since the start of the year. _*Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean *_have exceeded El Niño thresholds for the past month, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained negative for several months. These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Niño is _*likely to persist*_ in the coming months."

Note the reference to surface temperatures.  Not 1000mm down.  So, please find me proof on the chart showing the bouys where the warming is at?

oh and also knee slapping is the comment 'likely to persist'  LIKELY.  hahahahahahahahahahaha.  Dude/dudette, what form of stupid do you carry with you daily?


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## mamooth (May 13, 2015)

The Argo floats don't stay at a depth of 1000m, shit-for-brains. They occasionally float up, take temperatures along the way, transmit to the satellites, then sink back down.

You keep demonstrating how you're a complete moron on every conceivable topic. You need to go back to the kiddie table, shut up and stop annoying the grownups. If we repeat that a thousand times or so, it may eventually sink in. Or maybe not, given what a moron you are.

Only morons think that the entire world is wrong, and that they alone know the real truth. That's you. No, the whole world isn't wrong. You're just a moron. It really is that simple.


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## jc456 (May 13, 2015)

mamooth said:


> The Argo floats don't stay at a depth of 1000m, shit-for-brains. They occasionally float up, take temperatures along the way, transmit to the satellites, then sink back down.
> 
> You keep demonstrating how you're a complete moron on every conceivable topic. You need to go back to the kiddie table, shut up and stop annoying the grownups. If we repeat that a thousand times or so, it may eventually sink in. Or maybe not, given what a moron you are.
> 
> Only morons think that the entire world is wrong, and that they alone know the real truth. That's you. No, the whole world isn't wrong. You're just a moron. It really is that simple.


then why aren't they shown?


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## ScienceRocks (May 15, 2015)

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach Latest ECMWF fcst calls for strong El Nino. Figure shows ECMWF forecast vs. 5 strongest Aug-Oct El Ninos since 1950.






Holy shit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I couldn't imagine this dwarfing the 1997 nino but here it is! Man will this fuck someones day up come this winter.


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## Old Rocks (May 15, 2015)

jc456 said:


> mamooth said:
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> > The Argo floats don't stay at a depth of 1000m, shit-for-brains. They occasionally float up, take temperatures along the way, transmit to the satellites, then sink back down.
> ...


*A better question is why don't you do a little research before flapping your idiot yap?*

*What is Argo?*
Argo is a global array of more than 3,000 free-drifting profiling floats that measures thetemperature and salinity of the upper 2000 m of the ocean.  This allows, for the first time, continuous monitoring of the temperature, salinity, and velocity of the upper ocean, with all data being relayed and made publicly available within hours after collection. 

Positions of the floats that have delivered data within the last 30 days (AIC, updated daily) :

 

Argo - part of the integrated global observation strategy

*Any more areas in which you would like to demonstrate what a dumb ass you are?*


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## Old Rocks (May 16, 2015)

Looks like jc got the answer he was looking for, and does not like it. 

But the denialists do have a real problem this year. We have a strong El Nino in the making. So, in the time that it is developing, they must scream and whine, and tell all the lies they can, to divert attention from the fact that the climate is doing exactly what the scientists stated that it would do.


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## IanC (May 16, 2015)

jc456 said:


> mamooth said:
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> 
> > The Argo floats don't stay at a depth of 1000m, shit-for-brains. They occasionally float up, take temperatures along the way, transmit to the satellites, then sink back down.
> ...




jc- ARGOs free float but there are other tethered buoy systems that collect site specific data for equitorial and ENSO data. I think one of the big ones is called TAO.


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## Billy_Bob (May 16, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Philip Klotzbach
> ‏@philklotzbach Latest ECMWF fcst calls for strong El Nino. Figure shows ECMWF forecast vs. 5 strongest Aug-Oct El Ninos since 1950.
> 
> 
> ...



Even Tisdale states it will not be significant if it even forms. Funny you would imply that Tisdale agrees with you and distort the facts.


----------



## Old Rocks (May 16, 2015)

That you state, but provide no link. What a silly ass you are.


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 16, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> That you state, but provide no link. What a silly ass you are.



Had you used your brain and saw the link that Matthew used you could have easily read the entire article he cited and found the information.. lets see if you can do it now, shall we?


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 16, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Looks like jc got the answer he was looking for, and does not like it.
> 
> But the denialists do have a real problem this year. We have a strong El Nino in the making. So, in the time that it is developing, they must scream and whine, and tell all the lies they can, to divert attention from the fact that the climate is doing exactly what the scientists stated that it would do.



Nope.... I will be very surprised if it does not die a gruesome death very soon..


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 16, 2015)

earth a global map of wind weather and ocean conditions

Wind patterns, speed and temperatures indicate no slacking of easterlies.  A slow down and then an oscillation to westerlies would be required to use what little heat is left in the oceans and create an El Nino.  It simply isn't happening.


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 16, 2015)

Joe Bastardie over at Weather Bell had this to say about the mess:


> Joe Bastardi
> May 16, 2015 at 9:38 am
> btw that warm water still around Australia is a huge negative for the trades cranking up enough for ECMWF idea. We see some fairly good soi drops as we are having now, but nothing like the kind of set up we had in 97-98 as the water was very cold around Australia by now, meaning high pressure and the slow down of the trades. Same problem last year, though this year its off to a warmer start in enso 3.4. Interestingly enough the CFSV2 this am had many more colder recent runs ( blue) than its average.
> 
> ...



Its not going to be a major bump..


----------



## Old Rocks (May 17, 2015)

OK, Billy Boob. Remember El Nada? Silly ass, you said no El Nino at all, now the scientists are stating that there is better than an even chance of a major El Nino, and you are stating it won't happen. Going to remind you what a silly ass you are weekly.


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 17, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> OK, Billy Boob. Remember El Nada? Silly ass, you said no El Nino at all, now the scientists are stating that there is better than an even chance of a major El Nino, and you are stating it won't happen. Going to remind you what a silly ass you are weekly.



Why did NOAA change the criteria?  because nature was not responding to the alarmist wishes.. Most folks I know are shaking their heads in total disbelief that they would stoop so low to help the liberal socialist agenda.  Its not about science..


----------



## ScienceRocks (May 17, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> OK, Billy Boob. Remember El Nada? Silly ass, you said no El Nino at all, now the scientists are stating that there is better than an even chance of a major El Nino, and you are stating it won't happen. Going to remind you what a silly ass you are weekly.




Billy makes me laugh.


----------



## jc456 (May 18, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > OK, Billy Boob. Remember El Nada? Silly ass, you said no El Nino at all, now the scientists are stating that there is better than an even chance of a major El Nino, and you are stating it won't happen. Going to remind you what a silly ass you are weekly.
> ...


it's you and yours making the rest of us laugh.  You have no evidence to support your claim, I explained.


----------



## jc456 (May 18, 2015)

old rocks, I had better things to do than come in here and banter with you and your position of stupid.  you should look into doing something outside this message board.  Maybe you wouldn't flame so often.


----------



## jc456 (May 18, 2015)

IanC said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > mamooth said:
> ...


Ian, thanks.  My post was specific to Mathew's link.  I found TAO at the site and it didn't appear to be supporting his claim.


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## Old Rocks (May 18, 2015)

LOL. jc, you are going to be subjected to much laughter and derision as this year develops.


----------



## jc456 (May 18, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> LOL. jc, you are going to be subjected to much laughter and derision as this year develops.


Hahahaha


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 18, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> LOL. jc, you are going to be subjected to much laughter and derision as this year develops.



I wonder what kind of derision you will be subjected too when it falls apart and doesn't build like you think it will.?


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 18, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > OK, Billy Boob. Remember El Nada? Silly ass, you said no El Nino at all, now the scientists are stating that there is better than an even chance of a major El Nino, and you are stating it won't happen. Going to remind you what a silly ass you are weekly.
> ...



Sadly your ignorance makes me sick... All I can do is shake my head at how gullible you are..


----------



## Old Rocks (May 19, 2015)

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
El Niño conditions are present.* 
Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across 
most of the Pacific Ocean.
There is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño conditions will continue 
through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance 
it will last through 2015.*

*But ol' Billy Boob knows better. Ever week, Billy Boob.*


----------



## jc456 (May 20, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
> 
> ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
> El Niño conditions are present.*
> ...


And yet it's going to be 54 in Chicago again today. L Nino Lnoto


----------



## ScienceRocks (May 21, 2015)

LOL, I've already blocked a few loons as I don't wish to read such idiocy. I've spent 25 years watching our planet and meteorology. What has this jc loon done??? Hates democrats and wants to feel powerful. Attempting to feel powerful off of 200 years of meteorological understanding of our planet and denying el nino isn't worth my time. Those things are just facts...The climate is a very new field and there you will find things to debate. The same can't be said about the wind shift known as the enso on rather it is real or not.


----------



## jc456 (May 21, 2015)

Matthew said:


> LOL, I've already blocked a few loons as I don't wish to read such idiocy. I've spent 25 years watching our planet and meteorology. What has this jc loon done??? Hates democrats and wants to feel powerful.


is that it 25 years?  wow, you be a youngen.  I've spent 50 years and I'm a youngen.  so you've watched and that makes you an expert.  hahahahahaahaha, you're not too full of yourself eh? What have you done?  You asked me and yet you didn't state what  it is you've done. DONE.. Not watch, done, what is it? hate their opposition for having a different agenda?  hmmmmm, possibl, possibl.


----------



## Politico (May 22, 2015)

Matthew said:


> LOL, I've already blocked a few loons as I don't wish to read such idiocy. I've spent 25 years watching our planet and meteorology. What has this jc loon done??? Hates democrats and wants to feel powerful. Attempting to feel powerful off of 200 years of meteorological understanding of our planet and denying el nino isn't worth my time. Those things are just facts...The climate is a very new field and there you will find things to debate. The same can't be said about the wind shift known as the enso on rather it is real or not.


Again where are the pics of your electric car? Or your solar panels? Or your composting toilet? Or your computer that was made with no petroleum products. Oh hell any actual thing that you have done to support your cause that you insist the rest of us do.


----------



## mamooth (May 22, 2015)

Don't to deflect from the science with weird tales of how the liberals want your toaster. We'll just ignore the deflection and bring you back to the science.

But do be consoled that you're not as wrong as Billy_Bob. Here's his post from Oct. 10, 2014.

The 2014 15 El Ni o Part 18 October 2014 Update One Last Chance US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum



> Looks like Bob Tisdale has put out the October ENSO updates and the alarmist long awaited El Nino is now a thing of the past. The warmth in the oceans has dissipated and we are going rapidly cold globally.



See? It would almost be impossible to fail harder than Billy. Go ahead, try your best to fail harder, you won't be able to do it.

Matthew showed us the the IRI forecast in post 101. This one is from the Australian BoM, and forecasts even more of an El Nino.


----------



## orogenicman (May 22, 2015)

Stephanie said:


> I don't know how you ever get any sleep. You're always freaking over the weather, climate on the earth, the environment, etc
> 
> Like you and all these politicians can wave a magic wand that will  cost us taxpayers, billions of dollars.......................and CHANGE IT



Whether or not we can change it is not the point.  People need to be prepared for major changes in climate patterns when they occur.


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 24, 2015)

OOP'S.... NOAA backing off its claims of a super-super El Nino changing its graph to show El Moki conditions only...  I guess their super/super alarmist drivel didn't go over like they wanted... They have even changed their ENSO page quietly, very quietly.....  I wonder if they will blame the changed data on a malfunction somewhere...

Source


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 24, 2015)

Matthew said:


> LOL, I've already blocked a few loons as I don't wish to read such idiocy. I've spent 25 years watching our planet and meteorology. What has this jc loon done??? Hates democrats and wants to feel powerful. Attempting to feel powerful off of 200 years of meteorological understanding of our planet and denying el nino isn't worth my time. Those things are just facts...The climate is a very new field and there you will find things to debate. The same can't be said about the wind shift known as the enso on rather it is real or not.


What happened to your above 4.0 predictions?  And then today NOAA silently changes their site to show only El Moki conditions for the next few moths followed by rapid cooling..  All the hype about a super-super El Nino and yet here we are with a significantly reduced graph that covers all the bases..

You Alarmists are so out there.. I may be just fifty years old and a meteorologist among other degrees I hold but the shear lunacy of some here is stunning...

The new and better prediction shows the potential for La Nina occurring... I wonder if they got caught lying and they just wanted to circle the wagons and cover their lying asses.. Trying to regain some semblance of integrity..


----------



## orogenicman (May 24, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> View attachment 41631
> 
> OOP'S.... NOAA backing off its claims of a super-super El Nino changing its graph to show El Moki conditions only...  I guess their super/super alarmist drivel didn't go over like they wanted... They have even changed their ENSO page quietly, very quietly.....  I wonder if they will blame the changed data on a malfunction somewhere...
> 
> Source



Erm, how does your source article, above, published on Sunday, August 30, 2009 relate to current el Niño conditions (May 24, 2015)?  (this should be good).


----------



## Old Rocks (May 24, 2015)

I looked on Boob's source;

Climate Variability Oceanic Ni o Index NOAA Climate.gov

And, sure enough, there is a graph there. One you can expand or contract to whatever years and months you wish. And it shows that we are presently in an EL Nino.

Billy expanded it until it fit whatever his agenda is, and tried to pass it off as present conditions


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## ScienceRocks (May 25, 2015)

Niño regions this week show a moderate El Niño in place, similar to 1997

Niño 4=+1.1C
Niño 3.4=+1.1C
Niño 3=+1.2C
Niño 1+2=+2.6C


Believe it or not the 1.1C is higher than 1997 on this date which had a reading of 0.8C back then. Nino 1+2 matches the same 2.6C reading that year. 1997 achieves 1.1C for the June 4th update.


----------



## ScienceRocks (May 26, 2015)

Eight provinces in the Philippines under state of calamity

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-26/e ... ty/6497096

The Philippines has placed eight provinces under a state of calamity due to a drought caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon.

The central Philippines province of Cebu is the latest addition to the list of areas which have been severely impacted by El Nino.

A state of emergency allows its officials to use five per cent of more than $US2 million in local emergency funds to compensate for the losses of farmers.

Meteorologists say more than 50 provinces were beginning to suffer from the effects of the El Nino phenomenon.

They said the onset of the rainy season next month may not alleviate the impact of the drought.

Scientists at Australia's weather bureau this month officially declared a major El Nino event due to an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

It is likely to bring hotter temperatures and lower rainfall to much of eastern Australia.


----------



## jc456 (May 26, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> View attachment 41631
> 
> OOP'S.... NOAA backing off its claims of a super-super El Nino changing its graph to show El Moki conditions only...  I guess their super/super alarmist drivel didn't go over like they wanted... They have even changed their ENSO page quietly, very quietly.....  I wonder if they will blame the changed data on a malfunction somewhere...
> 
> Source


dude, the weather over the weekend to today is more evidence that there is no el nino coming.  same weather pattern over and over and over again.  yet these gamokes don't get that. Ask Texas and Oklahoma folks how they love the el nino coming, or not.  hahahahahahaha it's funny as hell man.


----------



## ScienceRocks (May 27, 2015)

Read more here http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... imics-1997

El Nino Data Mimic Record 1997-98 Event as IMF Warns on Food

The El Nino taking hold across the Pacific strengthened, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, citing indexes of sea-surfaces temperatures that showed the same trend for the first time since the event in 1997-1998.

All five NINO indexes, averaged over the past four weeks, exceeded plus 1 degree Celsius, the bureau said in its fortnightly update on Tuesday. That’s the first time this has occurred since the 1997-1998 El Nino, the bureau said.

Australia this month joined the U.S. and Japan in declaring that the first El Nino since 2010 had begun. The 1997-1998 event was the strongest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The weather patterns can bake parts of Asia, hurting crops from rice to palm oil, while crimping the hurricane season in the Atlantic and bringing more rain across the southern U.S.

“The area of warm anomalies in the tropical Pacific now more resembles a classical El Nino pattern,” the bureau said. “Sea-surface temperatures will remain well above El Nino thresholds at least into the southern hemisphere spring.”


----------



## orogenicman (May 27, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Read more here http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... imics-1997
> 
> El Nino Data Mimic Record 1997-98 Event as IMF Warns on Food
> 
> ...



It was 117 degrees F in parts of India yesterday.


----------



## Old Rocks (May 27, 2015)

But we haven't seen any extreme weather events. No, that is forbidden by the 'Conservatives'.


----------



## Old Rocks (May 27, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > View attachment 41631
> ...


Just Crazy, you are getting dumber with every post. Heavy precipitation for the southern states is part of the norm with an El Nino. California will probably get their drought broken in a similiar manner later this year. As far as it being funny, why don't you go and tell the people in Houston that to their faces. That would be interesting to see.


----------



## orogenicman (May 27, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Billy_Bob said:
> ...




Especially the families of the ones who died tragically in the flood.


----------



## CrusaderFrank (May 27, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> But we haven't seen any extreme weather events. No, that is forbidden by the 'Conservatives'.



How much must we lower CO2 to chase ISIS out of the Middle East?


----------



## CrusaderFrank (May 27, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > jc456 said:
> ...



Suddenly, Houston is Global.

Uh huh.

AGWCult science = Claiming the lead story on the Weather Channel is caused by "Global Climate Warming Change"


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 27, 2015)

Its funny to watch the left wing nuts try and make every natural variation occurrence connected to "man made global warming".  Not only is there no empirical evidence to support their supposition the earths history shows that it has happened over and over again long before man had theoretical influence..  

Empirical evidence shows the alarmist fools and liars.. They deny real sciences for their pseudo political science.


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Billy_Bob said:
> ...


hahahahahahahahahaha, amazing.  You and that character they call stupid still working together I see.  Weather in the US is still the same as it has for the last two years.  Raining pretty much everyday here in Chicago, Detroit and Cincinnati too.  That cold front from the north has not let up.  Going to be 60 this weekend again once the cold front completes it route.  But you go with your el nino while California stays in their drought.  Sorry CA, the earth is not being nice to you.  you merely need to read what an el nino is and where it starts.  you must be reading more propaganda.  Which is normal for you.


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > jc456 said:
> ...


water rose 26 feet in an hour.  Never heard anything like that before.  I feel for those affected.


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> orogenicman said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...


local weather is only global when they say it can be.  When we say snow in the NE it's local only.  dude, i laugh my ass off with these idiots and their lack of character.  They truly believe they are in charge or something and only they get to dictate what is what.  it's flippin hilarious.  they can all kiss my arse.


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Its funny to watch the left wing nuts try and make every natural variation occurrence connected to "man made global warming".  Not only is there no empirical evidence to support their supposition the earths history shows that it has happened over and over again long before man had theoretical influence..
> 
> Empirical evidence shows the alarmist fools and liars.. They deny real sciences for their pseudo political science.


they are all messed up.  to date since I've been in this forum, there has been but a few times where they are right about something they post.  I don't use ever, never, or always, so it is possible that something they posted was correct.  But they are all chicken littles.  uses of the words they use is hilarious, most always is an extreme catastrophic type word.  Then they post crap with words like almost, expected, and predicted model that just nullifies most every post.  HILARIOUS.


----------



## orogenicman (May 27, 2015)

jc456 said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > orogenicman said:
> ...



Do you deny the existence of the phenomenon called El Nino?  If you don't, then why do you deny the existence of widely known El Nino weather phenomenae?


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...


El nino, yep know all about em.  I know which way weather patterns go because of them and from the north to the south isn't one of them. So until the weather comes from California, the weather at the moment is not any sign of any el nino, and it would need to be here by now to affect he winter months, and it isn't.


----------



## orogenicman (May 27, 2015)

jc456 said:


> orogenicman said:
> 
> 
> > jc456 said:
> ...



That's great.  So why aren't you working for NOAA?



			
				jc said:
			
		

> I know which way weather patterns go because of them and from the north to the south isn't one of them. So until the weather comes from California, the weather at the moment is not any sign of any el nino, and it would need to be here by now to affect he winter months, and it isn't.



At least now I know why you don't work for NOAA.


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > orogenicman said:
> ...


perhaps you should learn what el nino really is.  I can tell you have no idea.  anything else?


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

here go read about them:

link from Scripps Institute of Oceanography:

What is an El Ni o Anyway 

Abstract:

"In an El Niño, the winds pushing that water around get weaker. As a result, some of the warm water piled up in the west slumps back down to the east, and not as much cold water gets pulled up from below. Both these tend to make the water in the eastern Pacific _warmer_, which is one of the hallmarks of an El Niño."


----------



## orogenicman (May 27, 2015)

jc456 said:


> here go read about them:
> 
> link from Scripps Institute of Oceanography:
> 
> ...









Notice the warm water off the coast of Peru trailing off to the west along with the warm water off the west coast of the U.S.?  El Nino.


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

no, I see a map and no temperatures.?


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

Here is information regarding the predictions last year. 2014.  LYAO.  Thanks Judith Curry and Climate Etc.

El Nino watch Climate Etc.

abstract:

*"What the experts say*

See here for a comprehensive list of forecast pages for El Nino.
.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology  estimates a 70% chance of developing an El Nino during SH winter (NH summer), in a brief issued April 8.
.
The US NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued a new report today, stating that the chances of El Nino exceed 50% by summer.  The NOAA Report is very informative."


----------



## orogenicman (May 27, 2015)

jc456 said:


> no, I see a graph and no temperatures.?



WTF?  It isn't a graph.  It is a color-coded temperature map, red being warm temperatures, and blue being cooler temperatures.  And you said you knew all about this stuff.  So - you lied yet again.


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## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

look at the cold fronts on this map for today, you can see there is no sign of any el nino

Thanks NOAA






BTW I'm waiting to see wind patterns from the west coast.  Since it is wind that starts the cycles.


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > no, I see a graph and no temperatures.?
> ...


my bad i said graph instead of map.  yep totally me, it's ok, the same comment is still valid from me.


----------



## orogenicman (May 27, 2015)

jc456 said:


> look at the cold fronts on this map for today, you can see there is no sign of any el nino
> 
> Thanks NOAA
> 
> ...


OMG!  Really?  That's not the way it works, bubba.  But thanks for demonstrating yet again that you lied.


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > look at the cold fronts on this map for today, you can see there is no sign of any el nino
> ...


what isn't the way it works bubba? post up or shut up!


----------



## ScienceRocks (May 27, 2015)

Every data set now shows that we have a nino...It is just a fact of life. We will likely end up with one as strong as 2010.

It is a typical short term climate shift that is normal, but for the poor sobs that get the extreme weather they probably wish it didn't happen.

Both the atmospheric and oceanic setup supports that we have a nino. I'll stick with decades of reality.


----------



## Staidhup (May 27, 2015)

So chicken little the meteorologist what do you propose we do?


----------



## ScienceRocks (May 27, 2015)

Staidhup said:


> So chicken little the meteorologist what do you propose we do?




And you propose we not study it and be ready for it? That seems to be your solution for everything. The weird thing about that is we wouldn't be a first world power if we followed those directions.


----------



## ScienceRocks (May 27, 2015)




----------



## Billy_Bob (May 27, 2015)

jc456 said:


> look at the cold fronts on this map for today, you can see there is no sign of any el nino
> 
> Thanks NOAA
> 
> ...



The oscillations are not coming.  The polar low is still to big and equatorial intrusions are keeping it from forming.


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 27, 2015)

This weeks numbers are +1.09 deg C anomaly.. a drop from +1.21deg C Anomaly the previous week.  The cold is dissipating the warm pool.  NO kelvin wave has formed. 






Just not seeing any increase but certainly seeing the cool down.  SOI is -1.8 indicating the lack of any oscillations.. This thing is doing as predicted... dying..


----------



## Old Rocks (May 27, 2015)

Boy, silly ol' Boob, that looks like some pretty strong dying. And, tell me, just why does an El Nada have to die? Maybe because your silly ass predictions were pulled out of your ass, just like this one. I think that I will go with the predictions from the hundreds of scientists at NOAA and NASA, rather than a proven liar on an internet board.


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 27, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Boy, silly ol' Boob, that looks like some pretty strong dying. And, tell me, just why does an El Nada have to die? Maybe because your silly ass predictions were pulled out of your ass, just like this one. I think that I will go with the predictions from the hundreds of scientists at NOAA and NASA, rather than a proven liar on an internet board.



NOAA just lowered their prediction to less than 50/50 that it will form...  Hows that for confidence?


----------



## orogenicman (May 27, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> This weeks numbers are +1.09 deg C anomaly.. a drop from +1.21deg C Anomaly the previous week.  The cold is dissipating the warm pool.  NO kelvin wave has formed.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That is a computer model (look at the dates), you know, those awful computer thingys you people love to hate.


----------



## Old Rocks (May 27, 2015)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

During the last four weeks, positive 
equatorial SST anomalies strengthened 
across the eastern Pacific.

During the last two months, positive subsurface 
temperature anomalies were observed across most of 
the equatorial Pacific

Almost all of the models indicate 
Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will 
remain greater than or equal to 
+0.5C through the end of 2015. 
However, there is a large 
amount of spread in the 
potential strength of El Niño.

*My Goodness, Billy ol' Boob, you failed to inform NOAA of your expertise in these things.*


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 27, 2015)

The west warm pool is being pushed into the Indian ocean where it will die.  The east warm pool has been depleted and cooling is now setting into the wind driven cycle across the globe.  There is no oscillation to westerlies which are required to drive the warmth back across the pacific.  The absence of the Kelvin wave tells the tale.  Not looking good for alarmists..


----------



## orogenicman (May 27, 2015)

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf



> By early May 2015, weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and by the corroborating tropical atmospheric response. The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.2°C in the Niño-4 region, +1.0°C in the Niño-3.4 region, and +1.2°C and +2.3°C in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies remained substantially above average (Fig. 3), partly in response to a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which resulted in strong positive subsurface anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). This anomalous warmth has subsequently persisted in association with El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. This coupling includes enhanced convection over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5), along with persistent low-level westerly wind anomalies over the western and central equatorial Pacific and persistent upper-level easterly wind anomalies over the central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative during the month. *Collectively, these features reflect weak to moderate strength El Niño conditions*.


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 27, 2015)

IN this world view you can see that the Indian Ocean is harboring most of the heat.  The cross over into the Indian ocean through the Archipelago renders the heated water dead.  Without oscillations to push it back across the pacific  there is no significant El Nino..


----------



## orogenicman (May 27, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> IN this world view you can see that the Indian Ocean is harboring most of the heat.  The cross over into the Indian ocean through the Archipelago renders the heated water dead.  Without oscillations to push it back across the pacific  there is no significant El Nino..



So you are now a supporter of "guvment" models.  This is an interesting turn of events.  Did Al Gore work his voodoo on your too?


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Every data set now shows that we have a nino...It is just a fact of life. We will likely end up with one as strong as 2010.
> 
> It is a typical short term climate shift that is normal, but for the poor sobs that get the extreme weather they probably wish it didn't happen.
> 
> Both the atmospheric and oceanic setup supports that we have a nino. I'll stick with decades of reality.


It's all predictions a lot is with guesses too bad for you and California


----------



## jc456 (May 27, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Staidhup said:
> 
> 
> > So chicken little the meteorologist what do you propose we do?
> ...


Ready for what? With what and how? Dude you make me laugh cause you think you have some super hero climate guy power.Too funny

Why can't you make it rain in California then?


----------



## orogenicman (May 27, 2015)

Of course we do have a super hero climate guy:


----------



## Old Rocks (May 27, 2015)

By God, that is a better cartoon than the ones Wildcard presents. And funnier, also.


----------



## orogenicman (May 27, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> By God, that is a better cartoon than the ones Wildcard presents. And funnier, also.



Ironically someone here will take it seriously, and likely go off on an anti-Obama tirade.  Just a guess.


----------



## Old Rocks (May 27, 2015)

Waiting for ol' Staph to weigh in. A likely suspect, indeed.


----------



## mamooth (May 28, 2015)

As expected, the forecast is for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, since El Nino conditions tend to make wind shear that breaks up hurricane formation.

NOAA Below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely this year.


----------



## jc456 (May 28, 2015)

mamooth said:


> As expected, the forecast is for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, since El Nino conditions tend to make wind shear that breaks up hurricane formation.
> 
> NOAA Below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely this year.


So tooth, is el nino part of the Atlantic?  Dah......


----------



## jc456 (May 28, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> By God, that is a better cartoon than the ones Wildcard presents. And funnier, also.


I don't know, it's close, but I did like the other cartoon by Wildcard quite a lot. But of course everything you do is better right?


----------



## mamooth (May 28, 2015)

jc456 said:


> So tooth, is el nino part of the Atlantic?  Dah......



No, but it has effects on the Atlantic.

You need to learn the basics before you mindlessly spout off here. That way, you won't look so stupid each time you post.

Also, lose the namecalling. I don't call you names, because I choose to act like a grownup. You are capable of making the same choice, so make it. The biggest reason why everyone on all sides ignores you is that you constantly act like a badly-behaved child.

Now, if you insist on keeping up the namecalling, I can invent some names for you. I return the respect I get. Let me know.


----------



## jc456 (May 28, 2015)

mamooth said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > So tooth, is el nino part of the Atlantic?  Dah......
> ...


BTW, I read most of the article you posted, funny, no mention of el nino in it.  Go read what ocean has el ninos.

El stupido


----------



## Old Rocks (May 28, 2015)

*Abstract*


Hurricanes result in considerable damage in the United States. Previous work has shown that Atlantic hurricane landfalls in the United States have a strong relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomena. This paper compares the hist orical record of La Niña and El Niño events defined by eastern Pacific sea surface temperature with a dataset of hurricane losses normalized to 1997 values. A significant relationship is found between the ENSO cycle and U.S. hurricane losse s, with La Niña years exhibiting much more damage. Used appropriately, this relationship is of potential value to decision makers who are able to manage risk based on probabilistic information.


*1. Introduction*


La Niña and El Niño are the popular terms for alternating cold and warm phases of ocean temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America (Glantz 1999). The entire cycle is referred to as the El Ni ño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and has gained prominence over the past year with the occurrence of one of the strongest El Niño events on record (Bell and Halpert 1998). Reliable predictions of the onset and development of various phases of the ENSO cycle and their associated worldwide climate anomalies (or teleconnections; see Glantz et al. 1991) hold the promise of benefits to decision makers with the ability to use them effectively. To date, the scientific community generally predicts sea surface temperatures in one of several regions of the Pacific and then forecasts general weather tendencies based on documented relationships from climatological records. This process makes the connection of ENSO forecasts and societal benefits difficul t for most decision makers. Consequently, few decision makers are able to directly use information on Pacific sea surface temperatures to their benefit (Latif et al. 1998). This note discusses the relationship of sea surface temperatures and Atlantic hur ricane damages in the United States, and strongly suggests that a reliable forecast of Pacific sea surface temperatures is of potential value to decision makers capable of hedging with probabalistic information.

*Real information from real scientists, not people pulling shit out of their assholes. The ENSO and Atlantic Hurricane season connection.*


----------



## jc456 (May 29, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> Of course we do have a super hero climate guy:


BTW, why can't super hero climate guy make it rain in California? Just saying


----------



## jc456 (May 29, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> *Abstract*
> 
> 
> Hurricanes result in considerable damage in the United States. Previous work has shown that Atlantic hurricane landfalls in the United States have a strong relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomena. This paper compares the hist orical record of La Niña and El Niño events defined by eastern Pacific sea surface temperature with a dataset of hurricane losses normalized to 1997 values. A significant relationship is found between the ENSO cycle and U.S. hurricane losse s, with La Niña years exhibiting much more damage. Used appropriately, this relationship is of potential value to decision makers who are able to manage risk based on probabilistic information.
> ...


holy crap. oh yeah. that is really crap!! LMAO, anything is in play with your group isn't it.  

Hey BTW, every el nino article today is nothing but a prediction, you get that right? I'm just saying.  there is no evidence of el nino, just a hope and a prediction.  cracks me up. eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeewwwwwwww


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 29, 2015)

mamooth said:


> As expected, the forecast is for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, since El Nino conditions tend to make wind shear that breaks up hurricane formation.
> 
> NOAA Below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely this year.



Never mind that the Atlantic is now in its cold phase and can not produce strong storms..... Morons


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 29, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > IN this world view you can see that the Indian Ocean is harboring most of the heat.  The cross over into the Indian ocean through the Archipelago renders the heated water dead.  Without oscillations to push it back across the pacific  there is no significant El Nino..
> ...



Your own models show the cooling of the ocean waters, which is the point I was driving home, and it still went over your head..


----------



## jc456 (May 29, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> orogenicman said:
> 
> 
> > Billy_Bob said:
> ...


I know, right?  I have pointed that out repeatedly, but alas, the PREDICTION is that an el nino will happen 90% confidence. And yet, the weather patterns don't line up for one and the heat stays in the western Pacific.


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 29, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > orogenicman said:
> ...



There is more fun to be had. McCarthy Et al:


> The new paper by McCarthy et al. (2015) Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations has gained some attention around the blogosphere.  McCarthy et al. (2015) was discussed by Jo Nova here, at ReportingClimateScience here and LiveScience here.  Also see the University of Southampton press release Global climate on verge of multi-decadal change.
> 
> *As could be expected, the alarmist mainstream media have so far chosen to ignore a paper that discusses an upcoming multidecadal natural suppression of global warming…probably because indicates the slowdown in global surface warming should continue and it implies the natural variability of the North Atlantic contributed to the global warming we have seen since the mid-1970s.*



*Yep, its gonna be fun... The evidence continues to mount showing CO2 has little or no effect on our planets temp... The oceans on the other hand.......*

*Source*


----------



## orogenicman (May 29, 2015)

jc456 said:


> orogenicman said:
> 
> 
> > Of course we do have a super hero climate guy:
> ...



Too busy with the Texas takeover.  Didn't you know?  Huh.


----------



## orogenicman (May 29, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> orogenicman said:
> 
> 
> > Billy_Bob said:
> ...



You must be color blind, because what I see is deep red in the equatorial region all across the planet!


----------



## jc456 (May 29, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > orogenicman said:
> ...


So I guess California doesn't rate up there so many years?


----------



## jc456 (May 29, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > orogenicman said:
> ...


hahahahahahahahahahaahhaahah, you do know that is a temperature map and not an anomaly map right?


----------



## orogenicman (May 29, 2015)

jc456 said:


> orogenicman said:
> 
> 
> > jc456 said:
> ...



Of course not.  Too many resources tied up trying to put down those Texas two-steppers, don'tcha know.


----------



## jc456 (May 29, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > orogenicman said:
> ...


meaning California isn't worth it then!!


----------



## orogenicman (May 29, 2015)

jc456 said:


> orogenicman said:
> 
> 
> > Billy_Bob said:
> ...



Yes is certainly is a temperature map.  Notice all that red.  What temperature do you think that represents?  Look at the legend, dummy.


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 29, 2015)

jc456 said:


> orogenicman said:
> 
> 
> > Billy_Bob said:
> ...



HE missed that point...  The anomalies are near zero right now..


----------



## jc456 (May 29, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > orogenicman said:
> ...


I know.  He thought those were anomalies showing big time change.  this shit cracks me up.  And he'll deny it.  watch.


----------



## orogenicman (May 29, 2015)

jc456 said:


> orogenicman said:
> 
> 
> > jc456 said:
> ...



Why would Obama flood California with his secret weather machine?  Unlike Texas, California likes him.  You didn't know?  Huh.


----------



## jc456 (May 29, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > orogenicman said:
> ...


Dah.......................... that's the warmest part of the globe all year round you fool.


----------



## jc456 (May 29, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > orogenicman said:
> ...


So he gave all of California water to texas.  seems like the opposite.  See Texas was in a drought as well. DOH!!!!!


----------



## orogenicman (May 29, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > orogenicman said:
> ...



You are missing the flow pattern.  Whereas before, we were seeing subdued temperatures across the equatorial pacific, and flow from west to east, we now see temperatures shifted in the deep red, and flowing from east to west, just as EVERY PREVIOUS EL NINO HAS DONE.

But hey, if you want the anomaly map, here it is:





Figure 1. Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (°C) for the week centered on 6 May 2015. Anomalies are computed with respect to the 1981-2010 base period weekly means.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf



> By early May 2015, weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and by the corroborating tropical atmospheric response. The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.2°C in the Niño-4 region, +1.0°C in the Niño-3.4 region, and +1.2°C and +2.3°C in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies remained substantially above average (Fig. 3), partly in response to a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which resulted in strong positive subsurface anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). This anomalous warmth has subsequently persisted in association with El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. This coupling includes enhanced convection over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5), along with persistent low-level westerly wind anomalies over the western and central equatorial Pacific and persistent upper-level easterly wind anomalies over the central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative during the month. Collectively, these features reflect weak to moderate strength El Niño conditions.
> 
> 
> Nearly all models predict El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index 0.5°C or greater) to continue throughout 2015, and many are also predicting SST anomalies to increase during the next several months (Fig. 6). These forecasts are supported by the continuation of positive subsurface temperature anomalies, enhanced convection near the Date Line, and the persistence of low-level westerly wind anomalies. Given these factors, it is likely that SST anomalies will continue to increase in the coming months. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which somewhat limits confidence in these forecasts. Therefore, there remains considerable uncertainty about how strong this event may become. In summary, there is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
> ...



Right.  El Nino.  Next.


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 29, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > jc456 said:
> ...







Here is May 9ths  map..


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 29, 2015)

orogenicman said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > jc456 said:
> ...



Why dont you use something unadjusted and more current... like I did?


----------



## orogenicman (May 29, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Billy_Bob said:
> ...



Here are some more recent maps:











And the source:

ESRL PSD Current State of the Tropical Pacific


----------



## Billy_Bob (May 29, 2015)

Better yet is May 20ths  Showing the blob and its location above the undersea volcano that has now been erupting for over three weeks. Note the equatorial lack of heating and no warm pool.  El Nada continues..

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/wksst/5.gif


----------



## orogenicman (May 29, 2015)

Animation:  Weekly SST Anomalies for the past 52 weeks

ESRL PSD SST Anomaly Annual Animator


----------



## orogenicman (May 29, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Better yet is May 20ths  Showing the blob and its location above the undersea volcano that has now been erupting for over three weeks. Note the equatorial lack of heating and no warm pool.  El Nada continues..
> 
> http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/wksst/5.gif



Idiot.  For an undersea volcano to heat that much water, it would have to be the largest eruption in 10,000 years, at the least.  You have to be a completely fucking idiot to try to pull that one off.  Unfucking believable.


----------



## mamooth (May 29, 2015)

Meanwhile, from the Australians.

ENSO Wrap-Up
---
*Issued on 26 May 2015 *

The El Niño in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen.
---


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jun 1, 2015)

*1.3c at 3.4!!!* 1.6c is strong... so we could see it become strong by July!

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

How that for no nino???? lol


----------



## jc456 (Jun 1, 2015)

Matthew said:


> *1.3c at 3.4!!!* 1.6c is strong... so we could see it become strong by July!
> 
> http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
> 
> How that for no nino???? lol


Still ain't no El Niño.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jun 1, 2015)

Even the super nino of 1997-1998 doesn't boast a 1.3c at 3.4 in early June!!

Saying that we don't have a nino in the face of a possible super nino is funny. lol


----------



## jc456 (Jun 1, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Even the super nino of 1997-1998 doesn't boast a 1.3c at 3.4 in early June!!
> 
> Saying that we don't have a nino in the face of a possible super nino is funny. lol


Dude, it's but a prediction it's not here and most likely won't be first you need some weather that is caused by it


----------



## Old Rocks (Jun 1, 2015)

Just Crazy, you are one stupid liar.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 4 1.1ºC Niño 3.4 1.3ºC Niño 3 1.4ºC Niño 1+2 2.6ºC


----------



## jc456 (Jun 2, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Just Crazy, you are one stupid liar.
> 
> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
> 
> The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 4 1.1ºC Niño 3.4 1.3ºC Niño 3 1.4ºC Niño 1+2 2.6ºC


what am I lying about?  is there an el nino? no, is there areas of the water that suggest one is possible, yes, that's a prediction.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jun 2, 2015)

Trying to take the really stupid title from Billy Boob, jc? 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
El Niño conditions are present.* 
Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across 
most of the Pacific Ocean.
There is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño conditions will continue 
through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance 
it will last through 2015.*


----------



## Old Rocks (Jun 2, 2015)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

*El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.*
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, 
these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 
3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST 
departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These 
anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.


The latest weekly SST 
departures are:
*Niño 4 1.1ºC*
*Niño 3.4 1.3ºC*
*Niño 3 1.4ºC*
*Niño 1+2 2.6ºC*


----------



## jc456 (Jun 3, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Trying to take the really stupid title from Billy Boob, jc?
> 
> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
> 
> ...


IT's A PREDICTION no more.  Prove it isn't.  Prove where there is an el nino weather pattern.  Please one spot.


----------



## jc456 (Jun 3, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
> 
> *El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.*
> La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
> ...


PREDICTION no more no less.  And don't mean jack!


----------



## Old Rocks (Jun 3, 2015)

Fuck, you are one dumb ass, jc. Every zone is above 1.0.   0.5 represents an El Nino. That is last weeks numbers. The prediction is for the El Nino to continue through to 2016.


----------



## jc456 (Jun 3, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Fuck, you are one dumb ass, jc. Every zone is above 1.0.   0.5 represents an El Nino. That is last weeks numbers. The prediction is for the El Nino to continue through to 2016.


So fucking what? Name me weather where it is


----------



## Old Rocks (Jun 3, 2015)

What the hell are you babbling about?


----------



## jc456 (Jun 3, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> What the hell are you babbling about?


What is it you're babbling about f00l?


----------



## Crick (Jun 4, 2015)

JC, you've been shown, by your own posts, over and over and over again, to have an exceedingly poor understanding of science in general and climate science in particular.  That you should be the number one poster in this forum for your POV does your side little good. 

Education, in any quantity, is a good thing.  Do us all a favor and get some.


----------



## jc456 (Jun 4, 2015)

Crick said:


> JC, you've been shown, by your own posts, over and over and over again, to have an exceedingly poor understanding of science in general and climate science in particular.  That you should be the number one poster in this forum for your POV does your side little good.
> 
> Education, in any quantity, is a good thing.  Do us all a favor and get some.


hahahahhahaha, I have never stated I was a scientist, that you don't know this is actually funny since I continue to make that statement.  Second, I give to sheets what you think of my posts.  Further, I answer questions that are asked of me and thus have integrity.  Sir something you lack in most every thread you participate in.  Someone asks you a question, you dodge and duck answering it.  You instead use the left's tactic of asking a question from one asked to you so you don't think you need to answer it.  hahahahahahaha, my principles outweigh yours in so many ways, but you remain a scumbucket poster and have no integrity, some of us know you don't have any. Now do you have a question for me or something you'd like me to respond to instead of this bullshit whiny finger pointing?


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jun 6, 2015)




----------



## ScienceRocks (Jun 6, 2015)

The latest MEI update came out with +1.567, which is the highest since 1997-1998 and slightly stronger than 2009-2010 at it's peak. The MEI as previously mentioned before indicates the Ocean and Atmospheric conditions connected to ENSO. In short this data indicates conditions resemble that of a moderate to strong El Nino in place at this time. A rare feat for April/May as the update is indicating.

Read it here

"...The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade."

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/





 This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 1174x640.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jun 6, 2015)

Region 4 is now gone cold.  The cooling waters are now intruding on the 3-4 region and will soon lay the current El Moki waste.  IF the trend continues we might not see a temp spike in late July into Aug which would drive the left wits nuts.. For now we see no atmospheric warming and the cooling trend continues.  Even if we get a spike in temp the pause will resume with in a month or two as and El Nina appears to building the southern hemisphere waters and the warm pool is now all but depleted.


----------



## Crick (Jun 9, 2015)

*Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION*
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 May 2015

*ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory*



Synopsis: *There is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015.*

By early May 2015, weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected by* above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and by the corroborating tropical atmospheric response*. The latest weekly Niño indices were* +1.2oC in the Niño-4 region*, +1.0oC in the Niño-3.4 region, and +1.2oC and +2.3oC in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2).* Subsurface temperature anomalies remained substantially above average* (Fig. 3), partly in response to a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which resulted in strong positive subsurface anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). This *anomalous warmth has subsequently persisted* in association with El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. This coupling includes enhanced convection over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5), along with persistent low-level westerly wind anomalies over the western and central equatorial Pacific and persistent upper-level easterly wind anomalies over the central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative during the month. *Collectively, these features reflect weak to moderate strength El Niño conditions*.

Nearly all models predict El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index 0.5oC or greater) to continue throughout 2015, and many are also predicting SST anomalies to increase during the next several months (Fig. 6). These forecasts are supported by the continuation of positive subsurface temperature anomalies, enhanced convection near the Date Line, and the persistence of low-level westerly wind anomalies. Given these factors, it is likely that SST anomalies will continue to increase in the coming months. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which somewhat limits confidence in these forecasts. Therefore, there remains considerable uncertainty about how strong this event may become. In summary, there is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 June 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740


----------



## jc456 (Jun 10, 2015)

Crick said:


> *Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
> 
> EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
> DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION*
> ...


Again, for the umpteenth time, PREDICTION. It's all you got friend.  Want to challenge it doesn't happen?  What say you?


----------



## Old Rocks (Jun 10, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > *Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
> ...


 *God, jc, you are second only to Billy Boob in stupidity. Crick's post clearly pointed out we are presently in a strong El Nino, as did that of Mathew;*

*Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion*
The latest weekly Niño indices were* +1.2oC in the Niño-4 region*, +1.0oC in the Niño-3.4 region, and +1.2oC and +2.3oC in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2).* Subsurface temperature anomalies remained substantially above average* (Fig. 3),

*Anything above a 0.5 is in El Nino territory.*

"...The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade."

Earth System Research Laboratory PSD none


----------



## jc456 (Jun 10, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Crick said:
> ...


I see your eyes just can't see that big ass ole word PREDICTION.  Can they?  Dude, the weather patterns that would be a result of an el nino are not present.  I couldn't care less about what some company predicts when weather patterns haven't changed.  Show me where the weather patterns have changed and I will reconsider my stance.  until then, the boogey man will get ya!!!


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## ScienceRocks (Jun 11, 2015)

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) 
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION 
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 
11 June 2015 


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory


Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.

During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). All of the Niño indices were in excess of +1.0oC, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4oC in Niño-3 and +1.9oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). After a slight decline in April, positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May (Fig. 3) in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015 (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html


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## Billy_Bob (Jun 11, 2015)

SOI is in the toilet...(22 June is average date that SOI drops but it is already gone) IF El Nino does form, and right now indicators are going weak, it will be short lived. 

The Key to this is Westerly Wind formations near the equator, which SOI measures. IF the Cooling in Region 4 continues to grow all bets are off...

Time will tell if the NOAA goon squad and their politically driven prediction will fall flat. Even the boys over at WeatherBell (Joe Bastardie's group) have lowered their prediction to 50/50.. Noting the falling atmospheric pressures and Cold water intrusion.


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## Old Rocks (Jun 11, 2015)

The last El Nino's, 2004-2005, 2009-2010. What was the SOI doing on those dates? Down in the blue. What is that SOI doing today? Down in the blue. Damn, you are one dumb dude, Billy ol' Boob.


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## mamooth (Jun 13, 2015)

Weather Service joins call for a strong El Nino event - The Washington Post
---
The National Weather Service (NWS) finally announced publicly today what some other forecasters have said for months: the burgeoning El Nino event has a good chance to be a strong one by the fall or winter.
---


----------



## jc456 (Jun 15, 2015)

mamooth said:


> Weather Service joins call for a strong El Nino event - The Washington Post
> ---
> The National Weather Service (NWS) finally announced publicly today what some other forecasters have said for months: the burgeoning El Nino event has a good chance to be a strong one by the fall or winter.
> ---


i love it.  The fun never stops in this forum.  it has a good chance, not a great chance not it is coming, nope a good chance.  Well when you roll dice you have a good chance to roll snake eyes, it's still a roll of the dice.  

Holy crap it just doesn't stop in here.  nope..........hahahahhahahahhahahahaha. Talk about faith based.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jun 16, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> The last El Nino's, 2004-2005, 2009-2010. What was the SOI doing on those dates? Down in the blue. What is that SOI doing today? Down in the blue. Damn, you are one dumb dude, Billy ol' Boob.


You really dont have a fucking clue do you...


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## ScienceRocks (Jun 16, 2015)

Only another .2c at 3.4 will make this a strong nino!!!  I think it is doable.


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## jc456 (Jun 16, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Only another .2c at 3.4 will make this a strong nino!!!  I think it is doable.


Hahahaha


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jun 16, 2015)

Temps set to rapidly decline... looks like this El Moki is going away...

Heat around Greenland is now gone and the DWCR has risen cooling the ocean currents around the Continental shelf. Atlantic going deep cold, and it appears there is going to be some rapid ice build up this winter in the arctic region in this area.

Heat around Alaska and the oregon coast is now diminishing.  With no Westerlies forming, the heat in the Pacific is now waning..Region 3-4 should take a 0.1-0.2 cooling this next week.The region one warm pool is now depleted.   Nowhere to go but down from here..


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## Crick (Jun 17, 2015)

Lovely picture.  But what is the source of all your commentary?


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## mamooth (Jun 17, 2015)

Billy's prediction from Apr. 26. (post #12 on this thread).



Billy_Bob said:


> EL NADA is about to go away with a vengeance as cooler water is now cycling and a La Nina is building...
> 
> Were about to have a serious drop in ocean temps.. And Mathew is hoping like hell it will last through may and the Paris convention... At current rate of decline we will go negative mid May.



How'd that mid-May drop go, Billy? What, you mean it got more positive instead? Wow, you stink at predictions. Why should anyone take you seriously?


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## Old Rocks (Jun 17, 2015)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.*

*Mr. Billy Bob, here is what the ENSO Alert System has to say. Perhaps you would like to revise your post?*


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## ScienceRocks (Jun 21, 2015)

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 37s37 seconds ago 
Nino 3 has snuck above the 1.5 (strong) threshold- in a typical #ElNino the warmth spreads westward during the summer


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jun 21, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 37s37 seconds ago
> Nino 3 has snuck above the 1.5 (strong) threshold- in a typical #ElNino the warmth spreads westward during the summer



I dont know where he is getting his info from but it isn't real.





It appears the peak has been reached and flat-lined.. Region 3-4 is now cooling.


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## Billy_Bob (Jun 21, 2015)

Even actual temps show cooling and diminishing flows.  Rather interesting that no westerlies are even hinted at in the surface temps and must be conclude that the SOI of about -1.75 is correct. The heat is being drawn back south of the equator and mixed with the very cold water now amassing and the La Nina that is beginning to form up.

Its the timing of when it flips to cold flows and we are nearing that balance point in mass.

Source


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## jc456 (Jun 21, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Even actual temps show cooling and diminishing flows.  Rather interesting that no westerlies are even hinted at in the surface temps and must be conclude that the SOI of about -1.75 is correct. The heat is being drawn back south of the equator and mixed with the very cold water now amassing and the La Nina that is beginning to form up.
> 
> Its the timing of when it flips to cold flows and we are nearing that balance point in mass.
> 
> Source


Weather in Chicago isn't any different than last year


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## Old Rocks (Jun 22, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Matthew said:
> 
> 
> > Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 37s37 seconds ago
> ...


Mr. Billy Bob, just how do you get a flat line out of that graph? It has hit 1.35, and is still going up at a rapid rate.


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## ScienceRocks (Jun 22, 2015)

Text of CPC weekly update of nino 3.4 at +1.4C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf


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## ScienceRocks (Jun 26, 2015)

Will we make it to strong by next Monday??? Looks possible.


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## Billy_Bob (Jun 26, 2015)

Who to believe...  While there is warming of some regions the main push is now cooling and cold building up.


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## Crick (Jun 27, 2015)

You don't see that enormous blob of deep red running from Hawaii to Ecuador in the 2015 graphic that is NOT present in last year's data?  The El Nino doesn't take place in the South Atlantic Mr Weatherman.


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## jc456 (Jun 27, 2015)

Crick said:


> You don't see that enormous blob of deep red running from Hawaii to Ecuador in the 2015 graphic that is NOT present in last year's data?  The El Nino doesn't take place in the South Atlantic Mr Weatherman.


And yeti, still no El nino showing in the states! Hmmmmmmmm


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jun 27, 2015)

There's a whole shit load of things I strongly agree with the right wing with, but this one makes you look kind of foolish. Facts are facts.


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## jc456 (Jun 27, 2015)

Matthew said:


> There's a whole shit load of things I strongly agree with the right wing with, but this one makes you look kind of foolish. Facts are facts.


And yet, I look correct! Still no symptoms in the states. Going to be 54 degrees in Chicago tonight That's called evidence. Which factually you have zip of.


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## mamooth (Jun 27, 2015)

jc456 said:


> And yeti, still no El nino showing in the states! Hmmmmmmmm



That might have something to do with El Nino being something that happens in the Pacific Ocean.

Also, cherrypicking individual cooler days is rather flagrantly dishonest.


----------



## jc456 (Jun 27, 2015)

mamooth said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > And yeti, still no El nino showing in the states! Hmmmmmmmm
> ...


Yeah you call it whatever you want to call it. you want to call it El Niño and El Nino means weather across the United States and I'm sorry but you're wrong and I'm right and I'm still correct!


----------



## Liminal (Jun 27, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Matthew said:
> 
> 
> > The anti-science and anti-government people are here. LOL
> ...


As defined by people who don't believe in science.


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jun 27, 2015)

El Nino is pushing warmer water to the west, from the equator...........It is a natural cycle and it always pushes hot water across the pacific released from the ocean depths near the coast.............

When the Pacific gets hot enough it will help lower the jet stream down..........and we are seeing some of the effects already..........and will bring rain to the lower 48..................eventually hitting even California..................

It's pushing a wave of warm water.................Just as it has done naturally for a long time when it comes............


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## Crick (Jun 27, 2015)

It's going to cause the Earth's surface temperatures to increase.


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## eagle1462010 (Jun 27, 2015)

Crick said:


> It's going to cause the Earth's surface temperatures to increase.


So..................it's a natural event that goes through cycles............


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## Crick (Jun 27, 2015)

Yes.  Are you going to suggest that global warming is all caused by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?


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## CrusaderFrank (Jun 27, 2015)

Crick said:


> You don't see that enormous blob of deep red running from Hawaii to Ecuador in the 2015 graphic that is NOT present in last year's data?  The El Nino doesn't take place in the South Atlantic Mr Weatherman.



Is that the Blob who your global warming?


----------



## CrusaderFrank (Jun 27, 2015)

Liminal said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > Matthew said:
> ...



When you say belief, you sound like a fundamentalist


----------



## Liminal (Jun 28, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Liminal said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...


If words confuse you so often you should probably try a dictionary.


----------



## CrusaderFrank (Jun 28, 2015)

Liminal said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > Liminal said:
> ...



Rothschild money and power is driving the AGWCult so its not surprising that you'll say and do anything to please your masters.

Even the IPCC admits that global warming is a scam to redistribute wealth.

Think of it this way, whenever you say denier or consensus, you're admitting you essentially got scammed by the lawyer representing the jailed Nigerian finance minister; there's no more truth to man-made global climate warming change than there is to the diamond mine you now own. You got scammed


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jun 28, 2015)

Crick said:


> Yes.  Are you going to suggest that global warming is all caused by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?


Are you going to suggest that it's all caused by man as normal....................

Your frothing at the mouth over a Natural event saying...........see.........it's warming........I told you so...............pathetic.


----------



## Crick (Jun 28, 2015)

Why are you unable to answer my question?  It is that which could suggest pathos.

I am not going to suggest that it is "all" caused by man.  I am going to contend - based on the opinion of the vast majority of the experts in this field - that the _*primary cause*_ of the warming observed over the last 150 years is the greenhouse effect acting on human GHG emissions and deforestation.  Do you have a different opinion?


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jun 28, 2015)

Crick said:


> Why are you unable to answer my question?  It is that which could suggest pathos.
> 
> I am not going to suggest that it is "all" caused by man.  I am going to contend - based on the opinion of the vast majority of the experts in this field - that the _*primary cause*_ of the warming observed over the last 150 years is the greenhouse effect acting on human GHG emissions and deforestation.  Do you have a different opinion?


Why in thread after thread have you dodged the question on how much of it is caused by man and how much by nature?
Which goes directly to the 97% claim and the science is settled dispute?

Your and your side say the science is settled................No it is not..........because you can't tell me how much is via Nature and how much is via man.....................

El Nino is a natural event that changes the Earth's weather pattern.........it happens in cycles........some strong and some weak........and has been doing so for a very long time............no or yes...........so I see it as a natural event..........

You see it as an opportunity to say LOOK GLOBAL WARMING.........YOU DENIERS.............

But you can't answer the question on how much is via man made...........You just continue your dogma as the predictions and computer models end up being wrong.........

Then you say........there wasn't a period of cooling in the last decade........then you go yes there was..........and then back to there was no cooling...........as places like the IPCC manipulate data when they bank rolls.....oops guesses go wrong.


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jun 28, 2015)

When I first brought up El Nino..........on another of many threads..............you immediately became defensive.............

and said YOU SHOULD TELL IT TO THESE GUYS.............Listed the reports that said it wouldn't happen......remember that.......

Then you shifted to ask me if I thought El Nino would end the drought in California........

I said yes..........that is what I think will happen......given what has happened in the past..........

Then you said.........you know that will make it warmer..........and I said no shit Sherlock.........

In other words you DANCED.............to whatever suits your cause..........
You can't tell me how much is man made and how much is nature.........so that is all you can do...........

Dance.............

El Nino.............Jet streams are already shifting bringing more rain to the lower 48.........if it shifts more via the warmer waters in the Central Pacific.........California will most likely get some much needed rain..........via a NATURAL EVENT........and not your continued claims that we are basically causing it all..............


Enjoy it again......fraud.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jun 28, 2015)

Yes, El Nino is a natural event. The increasing intensity of the El Nino is not a natural event. Look at the graph, even though it only goes to 2011, you can see the increasing intensity and increasing temperatures, not only in the El Nino events, but also in the neutral ENSO, and even increasing temperatures in the La Nina events. In fact, the last two La Nina's have been warmer than the 1994 El Nino. Last year, on a neutral ENSO we had a year that matched 1998, 2005, and 2010. This year, on what looks like a strong El Nino, I think that we will see a new record set. 

We know that CO2, CH4, and NOx are GHGs. We know that increasing these gases in the atmosphere will create a warmer atmosphere. We have evidence that points this out from past geological eras. The physics of the situation does not change because this time it is mankind, rather than a natural event that is putting the GHGs into the atmosphere.


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jun 28, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Yes, El Nino is a natural event. The increasing intensity of the El Nino is not a natural event. Look at the graph, even though it only goes to 2011, you can see the increasing intensity and increasing temperatures, not only in the El Nino events, but also in the neutral ENSO, and even increasing temperatures in the La Nina events. In fact, the last two La Nina's have been warmer than the 1994 El Nino. Last year, on a neutral ENSO we had a year that matched 1998, 2005, and 2010. This year, on what looks like a strong El Nino, I think that we will see a new record set.
> 
> We know that CO2, CH4, and NOx are GHGs. We know that increasing these gases in the atmosphere will create a warmer atmosphere. We have evidence that points this out from past geological eras. The physics of the situation does not change because this time it is mankind, rather than a natural event that is putting the GHGs into the atmosphere.


Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring Data ENSO Impacts on the U.S. - Previous Events

Prove it.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jun 28, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Yes, El Nino is a natural event. The increasing intensity of the El Nino is not a natural event. Look at the graph, even though it only goes to 2011, you can see the increasing intensity and increasing temperatures, not only in the El Nino events, but also in the neutral ENSO, and even increasing temperatures in the La Nina events. In fact, the last two La Nina's have been warmer than the 1994 El Nino. Last year, on a neutral ENSO we had a year that matched 1998, 2005, and 2010. This year, on what looks like a strong El Nino, I think that we will see a new record set.
> 
> We know that CO2, CH4, and NOx are GHGs. We know that increasing these gases in the atmosphere will create a warmer atmosphere. We have evidence that points this out from past geological eras. The physics of the situation does not change because this time it is mankind, rather than a natural event that is putting the GHGs into the atmosphere.



You cant define what is naturally occurring and what is man induced.  The IPCC and other organizations said that the magic CO2 monster is responsible for all warming since 1950.  Yet the rate of warming since 1950 is less than the warming before 1950. They have no proof of this assumption.

Two questions come to mind..  1) how did you turn off natural variation..?. 2) And, Since you can now control earths climate why has it stopped warming?

Basic science show the AGW cult to be just that, a cult. An El Nino is a natural event and man has little effect if any on it.  La Nina is also a natural event which is now building in both oceans.   When this flips later this year its going to be a very rude cool down. Will you also blame this on man and CO2?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jun 28, 2015)

eagle1462010 said:


> El Nino is pushing warmer water to the west, from the equator...........It is a natural cycle and it always pushes hot water across the pacific released from the ocean depths near the coast.............
> 
> When the Pacific gets hot enough it will help lower the jet stream down..........and we are seeing some of the effects already..........and will bring rain to the lower 48..................eventually hitting even California..................
> 
> It's pushing a wave of warm water.................Just as it has done naturally for a long time when it comes............



The SOI is negative.  There are very weak westerlies but now that we have passed summer solstice, the northern hemisphere and solar strength is now declining. The resulting kelvin wave , weak as it is, will disappear in short order. 

What is of concern to me is the amount of very cold water amassing near the equator. Were about to experience a very rapid flip to cold. The amount of cold water suggests it will be a deep flip to cooling. Current maps show a -2 to -3 deg C change.  Depending on when the flip occurs this fall and winter could be very sever for most of the western US.


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jun 28, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> eagle1462010 said:
> 
> 
> > El Nino is pushing warmer water to the west, from the equator...........It is a natural cycle and it always pushes hot water across the pacific released from the ocean depths near the coast.............
> ...


Not sure......last I saw was the warm water moving West....we'll see...........but its still a natural event which they so desperately want to be man made.

LOL


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jun 28, 2015)

eagle1462010 said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > eagle1462010 said:
> ...



Time will tell...


----------



## Old Rocks (Jun 28, 2015)

eagle1462010 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Yes, El Nino is a natural event. The increasing intensity of the El Nino is not a natural event. Look at the graph, even though it only goes to 2011, you can see the increasing intensity and increasing temperatures, not only in the El Nino events, but also in the neutral ENSO, and even increasing temperatures in the La Nina events. In fact, the last two La Nina's have been warmer than the 1994 El Nino. Last year, on a neutral ENSO we had a year that matched 1998, 2005, and 2010. This year, on what looks like a strong El Nino, I think that we will see a new record set.
> ...


The proof of the effectiveness of water vapor, CO2, CH4, and NOx as GHGs was proven in 1858 by John Tyndall. The graph is evidence of the increasing intensity of the weather associated with the natural ENSO cycles.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jun 28, 2015)

Mr. Billy Bob, thus far you have been correct 0% of the time. I really don't expect to ruin that perfect scorecard with your latest prediction.


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jun 28, 2015)

Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies National Centers for Environmental Information NCEI 

Nice red line across the equator....set the dates at this site as desired..........seems the hotter water is being drawn towards the equator to me...............


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jun 28, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> eagle1462010 said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...


He was the first one to measure it................and his conclusions was that water vapor was the main culprit for trapping heat at that time.......

It was much later they advanced studies to conclude that CO2 was the primary source of absorbing radiant heat.............

It doesn't prove how much is caused by man.................and your side still can't quantify how much is caused by nature......and how much is adapted by Nature.......................

El Nino sends heat across the oceans...........it also helps create Mother Natures air conditioners............Super Cyclones and Super Typhoons................which act as a cooling effect............aka they are a giant ass cooling fan.............how much heat do these storms dissipate...............Have your scientist jumped into the storms and measured that aspect.................

Tropic Rain Forrest are hot as hell..............the water vapor traps heat.......would that be correct...............but we need to save them......................or CO2 is not going to be absorbed.............Yet more rain forrest actually bring up the temps in those areas due to water vapor..............where is that in your studies.............

Trees absorb and grow faster in higher CO2............proof when they carbon date them.......would that be correct........your side deflects this by saying eventually they will be saturated and stop absorbing..............where are the studies PROVING the TREES stop growing in this country.............

I haven't seen the trees stop growing have you????????????

They are now growing food with higher CO2 levels to increase output.............and it is working.....

and so on................The SCIENCE isn't settled............it is infantile compared to the millions of years of the earth.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jun 28, 2015)

Mr. Eagle, rather then displaying your massive ignorance for all to see, why don't you actually read the articles that the scientists write? Go to Google Scholar, and type in whatever questions you have on climate, GHGs, ect. 

As far as quantifying how much of the warming is natural, and how much is caused by the increase in GHGs, that is pretty simple. The earth heat balance is maintianed by two factors, how much heat it receives from the sun, and how much of that heat it retains. Were there no greenhouse effect, the oceans would be frozen down to the equator. With the greenhouse effect, the average temperature is about 60 F. We know what the TSI is from the satellites we have monitoring it.We know how much the earth has been warming. When the equilibrium is out of balance, then there has to be a reason. With the warming, it looks like most of it is from the GHGs we have added. Particulary as our warmest years have all occurred since there has been a slight decrease in the TSI.


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jun 28, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Mr. Eagle, rather then displaying your massive ignorance for all to see, why don't you actually read the articles that the scientists write? Go to Google Scholar, and type in whatever questions you have on climate, GHGs, ect.
> 
> As far as quantifying how much of the warming is natural, and how much is caused by the increase in GHGs, that is pretty simple. The earth heat balance is maintianed by two factors, how much heat it receives from the sun, and how much of that heat it retains.* Were there no greenhouse effect, the oceans would be frozen down to the equator.* With the greenhouse effect, the average temperature is about 60 F. We know what the TSI is from the satellites we have monitoring it.We know how much the earth has been warming. When the equilibrium is out of balance, then there has to be a reason. With the warming, it looks like most of it is from the GHGs we have added. Particulary as our warmest years have all occurred since there has been a slight decrease in the TSI.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jun 29, 2015)

eagle1462010 said:


> Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies National Centers for Environmental Information NCEI
> 
> Nice red line across the equator....set the dates at this site as desired..........seems the hotter water is being drawn towards the equator to me...............



The heat is only being drawn up in small areas.  The cooling waters however are at depth and rising.  The Kelvin wave is falling apart.  The easterly winds needed to drive El Nino  heat back across the pacific are nonexistent. without winds to drive the heat back the El Nino dies. 

The cold water now building will, at some point, cut off the warm flows causing the ocean temps to plummet. the timming of this event is tricky. The fact that the heat is not being pushed east across the pacific at mid latitudes and the presence of large amounts of -2 deg C waters building indicate that El Nino is dying and the flip is imminent. 

The cold pool in region 3 is going to cripple the heat transfer. The point of flip is nearing as the heated water is constricted at the equator.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jun 29, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Mr. Eagle, rather then displaying your massive ignorance for all to see, why don't you actually read the articles that the scientists write? Go to Google Scholar, and type in whatever questions you have on climate, GHGs, ect.
> 
> As far as quantifying how much of the warming is natural, and how much is caused by the increase in GHGs, that is pretty simple. The earth heat balance is maintianed by two factors, how much heat it receives from the sun, and how much of that heat it retains. Were there no greenhouse effect, the oceans would be frozen down to the equator. With the greenhouse effect, the average temperature is about 60 F. We know what the TSI is from the satellites we have monitoring it.We know how much the earth has been warming. When the equilibrium is out of balance, then there has to be a reason. With the warming, it looks like most of it is from the GHGs we have added. Particulary as our warmest years have all occurred since there has been a slight decrease in the TSI.



You can not quantify mans contribution to CO2 in our atmosphere or how much nature is placing or removing from it. With that in mind, your whole post is nothing but pure conjecture. You cannot derive causation without knowing all three quantities and how the system actually works.

Your Ignorance is astounding..


----------



## Crick (Jun 29, 2015)

What natural effect besides changes in TSI (and a Milankovich change would exhibit itself as just a change in TSI) would move the Earth away from radiative equilibrium?


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jun 29, 2015)

El nino is natural but may have the effect of increasing global temperatures during positive events.


----------



## flacaltenn (Jun 29, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Mr. Eagle, rather then displaying your massive ignorance for all to see, why don't you actually read the articles that the scientists write? Go to Google Scholar, and type in whatever questions you have on climate, GHGs, ect.
> 
> As far as quantifying how much of the warming is natural, and how much is caused by the increase in GHGs, that is pretty simple. The earth heat balance is maintianed by two factors, how much heat it receives from the sun, and how much of that heat it retains. Were there no greenhouse effect, the oceans would be frozen down to the equator. With the greenhouse effect, the average temperature is about 60 F. We know what the TSI is from the satellites we have monitoring it.We know how much the earth has been warming. When the equilibrium is out of balance, then there has to be a reason. With the warming, it looks like most of it is from the GHGs we have added. Particulary as our warmest years have all occurred since there has been a slight decrease in the TSI.



Don't ever bug me again about WHO is saying that Earth's climate reacts INSTANTLY to forcings. Because YOU would be expecting that if you expect to see the warmest years caused directly by the state of sun IN THAT YEAR.

It's 10s and 100s of years to reach temperature equilibrium from a forcing. And this  current  temperature blip MIGHT be an uptick on a new equilibrium --- but it's just as likely to be the oscillatory "ringing" from a previous forcing..  Don't know because we don't have 50 year resolution in those Global proxy studies of long past temps..


----------



## flacaltenn (Jun 29, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Mr. Eagle, rather then displaying your massive ignorance for all to see, why don't you actually read the articles that the scientists write? Go to Google Scholar, and type in whatever questions you have on climate, GHGs, ect.
> ...





Crick said:


> What natural effect besides changes in TSI (and a Milankovich change would exhibit itself as just a change in TSI) would move the Earth away from radiative equilibrium?



Changes in albedo due to man-made construction or land use.. Or land use in GENERAL for a couple good ones.
You can actually see the IPCC attempt to  put numbers to land use, but they are largely AGRICULTURAL in nature and dont include urban expansion..

Then there are all the oscillatory natural effects in different regions.  Arctic Oscillations, Ocean oscillations, etc.

*The BIGGIES are stuff we don't even know yet.*. Only had SERIOUS satellites up for about 25 years.  One HUGE natural change would be small shifts  in the SPECTRUM of the sun.. Not the TSI.. Small shifts from IR to UV (or vice versa) would CHANGE the greenhouse window in MASSIVE ways. Because the gases in the atmos absorb in very NARROW spectral lines. So if the POWER of the sun remains constant.. But it's color spectrum changes -- the energy balance would be changed.

Can't study this from the surface because the gases that are absorbing various parts of the spectrum are in the way.. Only real way is to observe solar spectrum, from space, over a couple decades. Maybe 50 to 100 yrs --- to see how stable the color of sun really is..


----------



## Old Rocks (Jun 29, 2015)

Very simple physics. We are increasing the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere, the atmosphere is warming. It is not going to stop warming while we wait for some imaginery 'natural cycle' to create a cooling. We wait another 50 years to cease adding the GHGs, then we will see major, and possibly, irreversible effects from the warming.


----------



## jc456 (Jun 29, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Very simple physics. We are increasing the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere, the atmosphere is warming. It is not going to stop warming while we wait for some imaginery 'natural cycle' to create a cooling. We wait another 50 years to cease adding the GHGs, then we will see major, and possibly, irreversible effects from the warming.


Is the atmosphere warming or cooling which is it?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jun 29, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> flacaltenn said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...



Solar Spectral Change.  We are currently in flux to a lower wave length of solar output. For the last 60 years or so the main area of input from the sun was around 1.2um (peak portion of down-welling radiation.)  In the last 19 years that has shifted to 1.6um and correlates strongly with the current stop in warming.  The Boulder Co Solar Physics Lab is currently doing a study on precisely this. The ACE space craft is the main collector of data but there are three other space craft globally doing work. There are three ares that have changed rather impressively.


----------



## mamooth (Jun 29, 2015)

It's the "University of Colorado’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP)", not the "Boulder Solar Physics Lab".

And just present the paper.

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/3945/2013/acp-13-3945-2013.pdf

What does it say?

Solar spectrum measurement is really complicated.

UV variation over a solar cycle is bigger than previously thought.

That will affect the atmosphere in complex ways. Exactly how, not so clear. Deniers have faith it somehow completely destroys global warming theory, because they want it to.


----------



## flacaltenn (Jun 29, 2015)

May have to have real-time data for SEVERAL solar cycles to get a handle on how Solar Spectrum varies. If for instance the total solar output remains constant but some portions of the spectrum shift OUT of water vapor absorption bands -- you'd only need about 6% or so variation at TOAtmosphere to get a large portion of the 3.6W/M2 that represents our warming.. 

Studying climate change without 50 years of space science is like trying to study nuclear engineering without so much as a Geiger counter.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jun 30, 2015)

Daily 3.4 region index now above 1.5 degree Celsius


----------



## Old Rocks (Jun 30, 2015)

Shhhhh..........   You are upsetting Mr. Billy Bob. He said it could not do that. 

Really looks like we are going to get a strong El Nino, with all that entails. 2015 will definately be a hot year. No cooling this year.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jun 30, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Shhhhh..........   You are upsetting Mr. Billy Bob. He said it could not do that.
> 
> Really looks like we are going to get a strong El Nino, with all that entails. 2015 will definately be a hot year. No cooling this year.



Where did I say it could not happen? And if the flip occurs next month, as some are predicting then what? The NATURAL VARIATION WARMING your frothing at the mouth about is not caused by MAN...


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jun 30, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Daily 3.4 region index now above 1.5 degree Celsius



Not according to NOAA.





It has actually peaked and appears to be dropping as the previous week was at 1.37 and we are now at 1.30 deg C anomaly.


----------



## Crick (Jul 1, 2015)

This is very similar to the global SST graphs from 2014 and 2015 you showed us: the one with the clear and intense el Nino that claimed to show nothing but cooling.  You put up a graph that clearly shows a increasing temperature trend and then try to extrapolate a tiny, seasonal - APPARENTLY OFF-GRAPH variation to say what is patently false to EVERY other person looking at this graph.  If you boys are really looking for someone who can't read a graph, I think Billy Boy's your man.  Or your boy.


----------



## mamooth (Jul 1, 2015)

Cyclone Raquel forms as earliest big storm recorded off Australia s north-east
---
Tropical Cyclone Raquel has formed in the south-west Pacific near the Solomon Islands, triggering the earliest cyclone warning on record issued for the Queensland zone.

"Certainly it's a unique scenario," Jess Carey, a spokesman from the bureau's Queensland office, said. "Since we've been tracking cyclones with satellite-based technology, we haven't seen one in July."

...

Cyclone Raquel is likely to trigger westward wind bursts that would reinforce the reversal of the easterly trade winds, shifting more heat to the west as is typical during El Nino events.

The previous mid-year event off north-eastern Australia – 1972's Cyclone Ida – came prior to a powerful El Nino event forming later that year.
---


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 1, 2015)

mamooth said:


> Cyclone Raquel forms as earliest big storm recorded off Australia s north-east
> ---
> Tropical Cyclone Raquel has formed in the south-west Pacific near the Solomon Islands, triggering the earliest cyclone warning on record issued for the Queensland zone.
> 
> ...



You really need to read your full article and not just cherry pick your points. 

"One consequence of the cyclones in the western Pacific is that they * may contribute* to strengthening the El Nino now taking hold in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

"It's plausible, it could happen," Mr Casey said. "

This cyclone is so far removed from the equatorial region that it will not affect heat transfer to the northern hemisphere.  This is a late season storm and it is unstable given the surrounding cold water and low pressures which are causing wind shear and breaking it up. 

Reaching Category II  is going to be a real stretch.  Category one maybe depending on upper level windshear.  this thing will get pulled apart after going over the Solomon Islands.

I love the alarmist clap trap drivel on driving a massive El Nino... The water formations of 1972 were very different than today..


----------



## Crick (Jul 2, 2015)

How would you categorize the last two typhoon seasons in the eastern and western Pacific Mr Weatherman?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 2, 2015)

This week showing significant drop in region 3-4 and region 4 temps.  The shift to cold has started in the Pacific.  Cold pool west of Alaska is growing indicating the warm water is now leaving the area.






Cold pools in the Atlantic are strengthening around Greenland and Iceland.

Looks like things are now changing a few weeks ahead of predictions.


----------



## Crick (Jul 3, 2015)

You've been putting these up for a couple of weeks now.  With every one, we get your comments about this getting cold and that getting cold and the El Nino is as extinct as the dodo.  But when we read the comments of the actual experts, it bears not the slightest resemblance to your commentary.  Let's see...

*EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION*
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 June 2015

*ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory*

Synopsis: *There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.*

During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). *All of the Niño indices were in excess of +1.0oC*, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4oC in Niño-3 and +1.9oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). After a slight decline in April, positive *subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May* (Fig. 3) in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively,* these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.*

*Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015* (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters* slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event.* However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds.* There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter* (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 July 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 3, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> This week showing significant drop in region 3-4 and region 4 temps.  The shift to cold has started in the Pacific.  Cold pool west of Alaska is growing indicating the warm water is now leaving the area.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Sure, Mr. Billy Bob, sure. Perhaps you and Mr. Westwall can get together and tell us just how much 2015 is going to break records for being a cold year?


----------



## jc456 (Jul 3, 2015)

Crick said:


> You've been putting these up for a couple of weeks now.  With every one, we get your comments about this getting cold and that getting cold and the El Nino is as extinct as the dodo.  But when we read the comments of the actual experts, it bears not the slightest resemblance to your commentary.  Let's see...
> 
> *EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
> DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION*
> ...


So thank you for posting all of that. However, the cold air from the Arctic keeps dropping down into the mid US states Sun Tech is a continuance of the past two years so El Niño has had no relevance in the United States today. Anyone can predict anything anytime and say it over and over that doesn't make it right . BTW, there hasn't been any warming in the last 17 years.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 3, 2015)

So?


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 3, 2015)

FRI

98° 61°
SAT

97° 64°
SUN

100° 65°
MON

99° 62°
TUE

97° 62°
WED

99° 63°
THU

92° 61°
I just finished a 12 hour shift rebuilding a leveler in a steel mill. Will be working on it again tomorrow, and Sunday, also. Now just tell me that we are not warming. You see, we normally have 11 days of 90+ temps in Portland, Oregon in one summer. I think we had more than that in just June.


----------



## Crick (Jul 4, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> This week showing significant drop in region 3-4 and region 4 temps.  The shift to cold has started in the Pacific.  Cold pool west of Alaska is growing indicating the warm water is now leaving the area.
> 
> Cold pools in the Atlantic are strengthening around Greenland and Iceland.
> 
> Looks like things are now changing a few weeks ahead of predictions.



I want to know where you get this stuff.  It doesn't match ANYTHING real meteorologists are saying.  Is this the weather forecast from the Fox News/Human Events consortium?  Or did this come out of your head?  Have you somewhere gotten the idea that you know what you're looking at here?  I would have thought that 2014-2015 "What el Nino, I don't see an el Nino" would have knocked that idea out of your head.  It certainly removed it from mine.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 5, 2015)

Crick said:


> You've been putting these up for a couple of weeks now.  With every one, we get your comments about this getting cold and that getting cold and the El Nino is as extinct as the dodo.  But when we read the comments of the actual experts, it bears not the slightest resemblance to your commentary.  Let's see...
> 
> *EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
> DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION*
> ...



Too Funny...  They left themselves a major out to runaway from the prediction.. "However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds."

Even they are hedging their bets... and its a serious hedge!  'WE might not see nothin....but its gonna get hotter, I swear!'  They see the collapse but are afraid that mentioning it might not sit well with King Obama and his left wit drones.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 5, 2015)

Mr. Billy Bob, who is hedging their bets? You stated that there would absolutely be no El Nino. Now you are saying, well, maybe a moderate or weak, maybe no El Nino remains possible, though the odds are decreasing for that. Then you go on to rail about the President in a way that makes no sense at all. Perhaps cut back on the amount you drink or smoke?


----------



## jc456 (Jul 6, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > You've been putting these up for a couple of weeks now.  With every one, we get your comments about this getting cold and that getting cold and the El Nino is as extinct as the dodo.  But when we read the comments of the actual experts, it bears not the slightest resemblance to your commentary.  Let's see...
> ...


it's a prediction, therefore, an automatic out is always available.  it is funny stuff though.  gonna be 69 in Chicago tomorrow.  The high.  cold air still pouring out of the arctic and still no el nino.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 6, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Mr. Billy Bob, who is hedging their bets? You stated that there would absolutely be no El Nino. Now you are saying, well, maybe a moderate or weak, maybe no El Nino remains possible, though the odds are decreasing for that. Then you go on to rail about the President in a way that makes no sense at all. Perhaps cut back on the amount you drink or smoke?


you really need how to read what another poster posts.  Unless it is intentional.  Please quote where Billy made any such statement.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 6, 2015)

Crick said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > This week showing significant drop in region 3-4 and region 4 temps.  The shift to cold has started in the Pacific.  Cold pool west of Alaska is growing indicating the warm water is now leaving the area.
> ...


so, are meteorologists scientists or meteorologists?  you get all wound up in your lies, you forgot that their statements don't count on climate.  Or did you forget?


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 6, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > Crick said:
> ...


That is in your backyard, this is in mine;

http://www.weather.com/weather/monthly/l/USOR0275:1:US


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 6, 2015)

Normal 90 degree or more days in a year in Portland, Oregon, is 11. We had 13 in June;

Portland June Weather 2015 - AccuWeather Forecast for OR 97209


----------



## jc456 (Jul 6, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Normal 90 degree or more days in a year in Portland, Oregon, is 11. We had 13 in June;
> 
> Portland June Weather 2015 - AccuWeather Forecast for OR 97209


Exactly, makes sense don't you think? The warm is pushing north by you forcing cool here. Doh!


----------



## jc456 (Jul 6, 2015)

Normal Convection pattern


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 6, 2015)

If it was normal for your backyard to be at it's present temperature, why did you post that temperature as if it were unusual? It is not usual for Portland to be having the present temperatures, nor to be as dry as it has been. We are in a drought pattern, and our forests are getting close to the blowup point.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 6, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> If it was normal for your backyard to be at it's present temperature, why did you post that temperature as if it were unusual? It is not usual for Portland to be having the present temperatures, nor to be as dry as it has been. We are in a drought pattern, and our forests are getting close to the blowup point.


Dude, you really have a reading problem. It would be normal if your temperatures were in the 90s for ours to be lower due to convection so the pattern is normal! Comprehende?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 6, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > If it was normal for your backyard to be at it's present temperature, why did you post that temperature as if it were unusual? It is not usual for Portland to be having the present temperatures, nor to be as dry as it has been. We are in a drought pattern, and our forests are getting close to the blowup point.
> ...



The El Moki warm stream is dying.  Without the southern oscillations there is no El Nino. Even NASA and NOAA have acknowledged this. They are still hoping that one will form, it has not but, the conditions for one to form have been present for over five months now. 

The monsoonal flows are now present and established which has disrupted the Kelvin wave. This could have caused one to form once the southern oscillations begin. The southern oscillations may not even form as the cold pools are now deflecting the warm flow and dissipating it.

As of today my prediction that an El Nino would not form still stands. The pacific north west, Canada and Alaska have gotten all the heat from what has made it to the western shores. California has gotten much needed water from the monsoonal flows now established as have the mountain west regions of Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Idaho, Wyoming Montana, N Dakota, S Dakota and the plains states.

The deep flow of Arctic air this early in the season marks the onset of an early fall and winter.  Today's high in Wyoming was a meager 65 degrees F and most other interior states were at that level as well.  The Polar low is twice its average size (1980-2000) and the pressures the last two weeks have been steadily dropping, indicating significant strengthening. Look for much more of this to come.  The polar intrusions will kill any chance for an El Nino to form and is evident in the atmospheric maps over the last five months. The Kelvin wave is being torn apart before it can form heavy lines and a cold Atlantic is slowing medianel flows, as shown in the lack of any hurricane season.. 

With Cold water now the norm around Greenland and Iceland we expect to see massive increases in Arctic ice in the region and Canada. The shift to rapid cooling is here. Now we see just how much of a reprieve the warm Pacific might give us.  IF water vapor stays high through Dec its going to be a heavy wet and cold winter.

Old Fraud can keep his propaganda as real scientists look at the earth and not a model to see what it is that is changing empirically.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 6, 2015)

My goodness, Mr. BillyBob, what on earth are you smoking? 

June El Ni o update Damn the torpedoes full speed ahead NOAA Climate.gov

*June El Niño update: Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead*
Author: 
Emily Becker
Thursday, June 11, 2015
El Niño continues to pick up steam. NOAA CPC/IRI forecasters are now very confident that the event will continue through the fall (over 90% chance) and into the winter (~85% chance). Now that we’re emerging from the spring barrier, this month’s update provides a first guess of the potential strength of El Niño. It’s harder to predict the strength of the event than it is to predict its duration, so we are less confident about that, but forecasters currently favor a “strong” event for the fall/early winter. By “strong” we mean it’s expected that the three-month average sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region will peak at more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) above normal.

*What’s happening right now?*

During the month of May, we saw increases in a lot of the ENSO indicators. Sea surface temperature anomalies (the departure from average) were up all across the tropical Pacific, and the most recent Niño3.4 Index was 1.2°C. Both the lower-level and upper-level winds along the equator were substantially weaker than average last month, characteristic of El Niño’s weakenedWalker Circulation. This feedback between the higher sea surface temperature anomalies and the atmosphere is critical to both perpetuating and strengthening an El Niño event, and to communicating the effects of El Niño to other areas of the globe.

Signs of another downwelling Kelvin wave have begun to appear in the upper levels of the equatorial Pacific. This reinforcing source of warmer-than-average waters follows the strong Kelvin wave that has been slowly moving east since February. The consistently warmer waters are reflective of the slower changes we’d expect to see when the ocean-atmosphere system has settled into an ENSO event, as opposed to the shorter-term changes that dominate the rest of the time.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 6, 2015)

65 for a high in Colorado? How about 90 degrees for Fairbanks, Alaska.


Mostly cloudy90°RealFeel® 88°


N

E

S

W


Humidity: 27%
Pressure: 29.81 in ↓
UV Index: 1
Cloud Cover: 75%
Ceiling: 22196 ft
Dew Point: 52° F
Visibility: 10 mi
Fairbanks Current Weather - AccuWeather Forecast for AK 99701


----------



## jc456 (Jul 6, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> 65 for a high in Colorado? How about 90 degrees for Fairbanks, Alaska.
> 
> 
> Mostly cloudy90°RealFeel® 88°
> ...


How many times would you like me to explain why? Convection, ever hear of it


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 7, 2015)

How many times do you need to be told that you are full of it. The weather that Alaska has been in record warm territory for the last three months. Not at all normal.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 7, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> How many times do you need to be told that you are full of it. The weather that Alaska has been in record warm territory for the last three months. Not at all normal.


So you're saying that Alaska never sees warm weather?


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 7, 2015)

*You know, jc, you are as silly of an ass as Crusader Frank. Here is what Alaska has been seeing;*

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/alaska-compare-east-winter

Fairbanks is also experiencing a noticeable shortage of snowfall as of Feb. 27 with only 31 inches of snow this season, 25.1 inches below average. High temperatures have been above average in Fairbanks since Feb. 16, when temperatures climbed to 37 degrees. This is warmer than the highest temperature recorded on _any_ day this February in Minneapolis (36 degrees), Marquette (24 degrees) and Portland, Maine (35 degrees).

The warm temperatures in Alaska have impacted the Iditarod Trail as the start of the race has been moved farther north to Fairbanks for the second time in 43 years due to lack of snow and what the Alaska Dispatch News calls "dangerous, open water" – rivers that would normally be iced over and easily crossed are flowing as liquid torrents.

Meanwhile just north of the Arctic Circle on Alaska's western coast, Kotzebue, Alaska, recorded a low of 33 degrees Sunday. Amazingly, Kotzebue had never previously recorded a temperature above freezing on this date in records going back to 1897. The previous record _high_ of 31 for the date had stood since 1903 – but every single hour of Sunday was above freezing. For perspective, the average high for Feb. 22 is 7 degrees above zero with an average low of 7 degrees below zero.

On Tuesday morning, temperatures dropped to around 0 degrees in Barrow, the northernmost city in the United States. That may seem frigid, but it probably felt like spring compared to the Northeast, where numerous record lows were set, including Pittsburgh (minus 9 degrees), Indianapolis (minus 5 degrees), Providence, Rhode Island (minus 3 degrees) and Burlington, Vermont (minus 19 degrees).


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 7, 2015)

There's a powerful el nino going on and if you can't see that then you're just wrong.

fact


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 7, 2015)

*Alaska Temperatures Climate and Weather info - Temperature*

*Alaska’s climate is changing*
The annual average temperature in Alaska has increased 3.5°F from 1949 to 2005. Temperatures have changed more in Alaska over the past 30 years than they have anywhere else on Earth: winters have warmed by a startling 5-6°F, compared with a global average of 1°F. That’s guaranteed to have dramatic effects in an Arctic landscape, where even small temperature changes can make the difference between freezing and melting. In Fairbanks, a city built on permafrost, the annual mean temperature is just 28°F. If it pops above zero, residents can say goodbye to the frozen ground beneath their feet, along with the free iceboxes in their basements. The impacts on wildlife, and the people who depend on it for their livelihoods, will be huge

*3.5 F is a big jump, and represents a major change.*


----------



## jc456 (Jul 7, 2015)

19 hours of sunshine in the summertime and you don't think it's going to get warm or hot in Alaska


----------



## jc456 (Jul 7, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> *Alaska Temperatures Climate and Weather info - Temperature*
> 
> *Alaska’s climate is changing*
> The annual average temperature in Alaska has increased 3.5°F from 1949 to 2005. Temperatures have changed more in Alaska over the past 30 years than they have anywhere else on Earth: winters have warmed by a startling 5-6°F, compared with a global average of 1°F. That’s guaranteed to have dramatic effects in an Arctic landscape, where even small temperature changes can make the difference between freezing and melting. In Fairbanks, a city built on permafrost, the annual mean temperature is just 28°F. If it pops above zero, residents can say goodbye to the frozen ground beneath their feet, along with the free iceboxes in their basements. The impacts on wildlife, and the people who depend on it for their livelihoods, will be huge
> ...


Holy crap. So you're saying that all year round temperatures have gone up 3.5° F holy crap are you full of it


----------



## jc456 (Jul 7, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> *Alaska Temperatures Climate and Weather info - Temperature*
> 
> *Alaska’s climate is changing*
> The annual average temperature in Alaska has increased 3.5°F from 1949 to 2005. Temperatures have changed more in Alaska over the past 30 years than they have anywhere else on Earth: winters have warmed by a startling 5-6°F, compared with a global average of 1°F. That’s guaranteed to have dramatic effects in an Arctic landscape, where even small temperature changes can make the difference between freezing and melting. In Fairbanks, a city built on permafrost, the annual mean temperature is just 28°F. If it pops above zero, residents can say goodbye to the frozen ground beneath their feet, along with the free iceboxes in their basements. The impacts on wildlife, and the people who depend on it for their livelihoods, will be huge
> ...


Oh, and more garbledy goo about the arctic too?  Dude, sorry, you're wrong.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 7, 2015)

So, the scientists that have taken the measurements in all the differant communities are lying to us? And if you had looked at the article, you would have known full well it did not say that. It said the winter temperatures have gone up a lot more than the summer temperatures, but the overall average was 3.5 F. Ah, well, jc, we all know that you flap yap without ever looking at what you are spewing shit on.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 7, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> So, the scientists that have taken the measurements in all the differant communities are lying to us? And if you had looked at the article, you would have known full well it did not say that. It said the winter temperatures have gone up a lot more than the summer temperatures, but the overall average was 3.5 F. Ah, well, jc, we all know that you flap yap without ever looking at what you are spewing shit on.


Flap yapping is yours you own it. I don't believe anything about readings after outright admitance Of fudging. Show me the temperatures then! Let's see how they rose.


----------



## mamooth (Jul 8, 2015)

From the Australians. Billy and jc apparently know better, of course.

ENSO Wrap-Up
---
*Issued on 7 July 2015*

The 2015 El Niño is likely to strengthen in the coming weeks, largely due to recent tropical cyclone activity. Several tropical cyclones, including a rare July cyclone in the southern hemisphere, have resulted in a strong reversal of trade winds near the equator. This is likely to increase temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise sea surface temperatures further in the coming months.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest El Niño will persist until at least the end of 2015. Models also indicate that further warming is likely. Historically, El Niño reaches peak strength during late spring or early summer
---


----------



## mamooth (Jul 8, 2015)

1997-1999 ENSO and Patterns of Coral Bleaching
---
The declared El Niño continues to build with both Kelvin waves propagating from the west into the eastern Pacific and wind shifts that further strengthen and maintain the El Niño. This El Niño is likely to further exacerbate anomalously warm waters off the U.S. west coast. Coral Reef Watch (CRW) continues to expect another global-scale bleaching in 2015 but hopefully not as severe as the 2010 event. However, some locations may suffer worse bleaching this year than in the past, just as we saw record thermal stress in the northernmost Mariana Islands and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in 2014.
---


----------



## jc456 (Jul 8, 2015)

mamooth said:


> From the Australians. Billy and jc apparently know better, of course.
> 
> ENSO Wrap-Up
> ---
> ...


65° in Chicago today nice warm July afternoon, laugh out loud


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 8, 2015)

1.6c at 3.4


----------



## jc456 (Jul 10, 2015)

Matthew said:


> 1.6c at 3.4


Dude, I don't care the fact is polar air is still coming to Chicago and Alaska is warm.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 11, 2015)

Latest MEI came out and it was a whopping +2.06 for May/June highest in 17 years. Readings that high are reserved basically for the super El Nino's (1991 had a brief period of that reading). That means in measurement of both ocean and atmospheric coupling, it is resembling that of 1982 and 1997.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 12, 2015)

Looks like the replenishing waters for the Blob are now decoupled and surface temps are now cooling rapidly... Cold pockets in region 4 and the southern hemisphere are blocking further El Nino development.  -0.5 degree water anomaly is now penetrating to the arctic. just like the Atlantic cool is now taking over.  Watch for the temperature flip in the next couple of months.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 12, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Latest MEI came out and it was a whopping +2.06 for May/June highest in 17 years. Readings that high are reserved basically for the super El Nino's (1991 had a brief period of that reading). That means in measurement of both ocean and atmospheric coupling, it is resembling that of 1982 and 1997.



Where did you get that?  1.37 was the highest noted by everyone i can find.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 12, 2015)

Definitely decoupled and cooling... Note the cold pocket developing near the end of the loop on  July 8th near the Baja Tip.  The flip is beginning.


----------



## depotoo (Jul 12, 2015)

Coral reefs can recover after damage new UF study shows - The Independent Florida Alligator Campus
Isolated Coral Reefs Can Heal Themselves Coral Bleaching
And reefs do recover on their own-
Coral reefs may be more independent and resilient than previously thought.

New research shows that an isolated reef off the northwest coast of Australia that was severely damaged by a period of warming in 1998 has regenerated in a very short time to become nearly as healthy as it was before. What surprises scientists, though, is that the reef regenerated by itself, found a study published today (April 4) in the journal Science.




mamooth said:


> 1997-1999 ENSO and Patterns of Coral Bleaching
> ---
> The declared El Niño continues to build with both Kelvin waves propagating from the west into the eastern Pacific and wind shifts that further strengthen and maintain the El Niño. This El Niño is likely to further exacerbate anomalously warm waters off the U.S. west coast. Coral Reef Watch (CRW) continues to expect another global-scale bleaching in 2015 but hopefully not as severe as the 2010 event. However, some locations may suffer worse bleaching this year than in the past, just as we saw record thermal stress in the northernmost Mariana Islands and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in 2014.
> ---


----------



## depotoo (Jul 12, 2015)

El nino is nothing new, you know.  1997 had as strong an el nino,  and the strong return could help bring much needed moisture to the sw.


----------



## depotoo (Jul 12, 2015)

this would be good news for drought stricken CA.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 12, 2015)

depotoo said:


> this would be good news for drought stricken CA.



The desert south west would receive a good amount of moisture if this persists.  The cold pocket now forming near the tip of Baja will not be welcomed by those folks. It signals the flip is about to occur and that warm water is now no longer being pumped up the coast line, cold water is and it is surfacing.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 12, 2015)

depotoo said:


> El nino is nothing new, you know.  1997 had as strong an el nino,  and the strong return could help bring much needed moisture to the sw.




You think I don't know that? The point of this thread isn't to prove rather it is new or not, but to simply track a historic nino on the level of 1997. Research and understanding of our planet is a ever evolving and advancing field that demands such observation.

But, heck, I guess you'd rather just live in caves and not study such events.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 12, 2015)

depotoo said:


> this would be good news for drought stricken CA.




Yes it would...Can't wait!!!


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jul 12, 2015)

El Nino Could Be One of Strongest in Past 50 Years


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jul 12, 2015)

I wonder if Crick remembers me saying this stuff a while back................lol

He immediately denied it, then craw fished.................and then tries to pin it on humans again...........


----------



## Crick (Jul 12, 2015)

Are you Chris Farley?


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jul 12, 2015)

Crick said:


> Are you Chris Farley?



You don't remember do yah..................
You said maybe you should tell these guys...............
And you tried to get me to commit that it would eventually bring rain.............

And I said yes...................

And now the El Nino continues to gain strength.................possibly the strongest in 50 years.............
And I stand by my posts back then....................

You craw fished on that thread buddy................and then went on to go YOU KNOW TEMP WILL RISE...............No kidding was my response..............

Anyway..................My opinion of a strong El Nino might come true..............and if it goes down like 98 then California gets some much needed rain.


----------



## Crick (Jul 12, 2015)

I don't know what you're talking about.  I said I should tell who what?  And I tried to get you to commit that what would eventually bring rain?


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 12, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> depotoo said:
> 
> 
> > this would be good news for drought stricken CA.
> ...


LOL. I do believe that we will still be waiting for that flip in January of 2016.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 12, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > depotoo said:
> ...


And yet, The weather pattern in the Midwest is still the same.Below normal temperatures in the north part of the Midwest coming south, still.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 12, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Billy_Bob said:
> ...



*Boy, jc, that certainly looks like below temperatures going south;

http://www.weather.com/maps/current





US Current Temperatures

*


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 13, 2015)

*Strong!!!!*

Text of CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 at +1.5C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf


Niño 4: +1.1°C
*Niño 3.4: +1.5°C*
Niño 3: +2.1C
Niño 1+2: +3.3°C


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 13, 2015)

My Goodness, ol' Billy Bob done crashed and burned one more time. 

Oh, that's right, it is all altered data, just to prevent the world class forecasts of Billy Bob from looking like they are so. 

Yes, a strong El Nino right now, and maybe a super El Nino by fall. And record for precipitation and heat being set around the world.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 13, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> My Goodness, ol' Billy Bob done crashed and burned one more time.
> 
> Oh, that's right, it is all altered data, just to prevent the world class forecasts of Billy Bob from looking like they are so.
> 
> Yes, a strong El Nino right now, and maybe a super El Nino by fall. And record for precipitation and heat being set around the world.


where is there a strong El Nino?  The oceans?  LOL still no empirical evidence of el nino conditions in the US.  Still none.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 13, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...


did you see the weather in the Mid central states over the last week? What do you supposed caused that besides the moisture from the Gulf Coast?  Hmmmm cold from the north above Minneapolis, MN.  It is the same weather pattern for most of the summer.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 13, 2015)

Matthew said:


> *Strong!!!!*
> 
> Text of CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 at +1.5C.
> 
> ...





Old Rocks said:


> My Goodness, ol' Billy Bob done crashed and burned one more time.
> 
> Oh, that's right, it is all altered data, just to prevent the world class forecasts of Billy Bob from looking like they are so.
> 
> Yes, a strong El Nino right now, and maybe a super El Nino by fall. And record for precipitation and heat being set around the world.



Keep on deluding yourselves.. The warm spike will be short lived


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 13, 2015)

"The warm spike will be short lived". LOL

I think you said that in April of this year. Now if you continue to say it to April of next year, you might finally have said something with a bit of truth in it. Well, you have had your weekly spanking on this issue, please look forward to your next one this coming week.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 14, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> "The warm spike will be short lived". LOL
> 
> I think you said that in April of this year. Now if you continue to say it to April of next year, you might finally have said something with a bit of truth in it. Well, you have had your weekly spanking on this issue, please look forward to your next one this coming week.


The amount of warm water is declining  rapidly.  Your warm water spike in regions 3.4 will not last very long.  Thanks for playing..


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 14, 2015)

OK, Mr. Billy Bob, see you here next week, same time, same place, same results. LOL


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 16, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> OK, Mr. Billy Bob, see you here next week, same time, same place, same results. LOL







Even the Canadians are now showing the blob being decoupled and cold pools growing along the coast. Also showing significant cooling now reaching the arctic areas.

Looks to me like the trend has already broken and that the temp spike will most certainly be short lived.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 16, 2015)

Someone chose the wrong goddamn nino to whine about not happening!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 23h23 hours ago 
The July ECMWF fcst agrees with the CFS in showing a good chance for the strongest modern #ElNino on record #climate


----------



## jc456 (Jul 16, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Someone chose the wrong goddamn nino to whine about not happening!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111
> 
> 
> Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 23h23 hours ago
> The July ECMWF fcst agrees with the CFS in showing a good chance for the strongest modern #ElNino on record #climate



What continent is this affecting?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 16, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Someone chose the wrong goddamn nino to whine about not happening!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111
> 
> 
> Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 23h23 hours ago
> The July ECMWF fcst agrees with the CFS in showing a good chance for the strongest modern #ElNino on record #climate


Considering they are using all models it will be interesting to see what happens.  I'm going with empirical evidence of past El Nino's and what it was that decoupled their power sources. The depth of the warm water is but half of the 97/98 event and fading fast so their is insufficient heat to prolong it.  The fact it is already decoupled will make it even shorter. IF this makes it through Oct- Nov i will be surprised.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 16, 2015)

Severe Weather Europe
Latest CFS model revealing a strenghtening El Nino3.4, peaking sometime in late autumn and winter timeframe. This El Nino event is expected to be a very significant one with strong positive temperature anomaly of Pacific ocean.

Source: NOAA


----------



## jc456 (Jul 16, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Severe Weather Europe
> Latest CFS model revealing a strenghtening El Nino3.4, peaking sometime in late autumn and winter timeframe. This El Nino event is expected to be a very significant one with strong positive temperature anomaly of Pacific ocean.
> 
> Source: NOAA


where has it had any affect?

holy crap dude, that rise is like someone poured oil on the water and started it on fire, and it hasn't even happened, it's a forecast of oil burning I guess.  They have no way of knowing any such severe advance in temperature.  again, where is there any land mass being impacted by this?


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 20, 2015)

Text of CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 up to +1.7C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 20, 2015)

This is very big news.This El Nino is up there with the biggies of the past.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 29m29 minutes ago 
Weekly Nino 3 index at 2.3C. Only two El Ninos since 1950 have had monthly Nino 3 values >= 2.3C ('82-'83, '97-'98).


----------



## TyroneSlothrop (Jul 20, 2015)

This is a new kind of heat. In more than 135 years of global temperature data, four of the five hottest months on record all happened in 2015: February, March, May, and now June. 

This has been the hottest start to a year by far, according to data released today by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The record heat is likely to continue as an already strong El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean continues to intensify, ripping more heat into the atmosphere. This monster El Niño may itself be on track to break records. 

*  *
*Monster El Niño Makes Record-Hot Year Look Inevitable  *


----------



## TyroneSlothrop (Jul 20, 2015)

Source: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center


----------



## jc456 (Jul 20, 2015)

TyroneSlothrop said:


> This is a new kind of heat. In more than 135 years of global temperature data, four of the five hottest months on record all happened in 2015: February, March, May, and now June.
> 
> This has been the hottest start to a year by far, according to data released today by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The record heat is likely to continue as an already strong El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean continues to intensify, ripping more heat into the atmosphere. This monster El Niño may itself be on track to break records.
> 
> ...


sure it did.  Why don't you post up the global temperature sets that actually prove that statement?  Temperature data.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 20, 2015)

TyroneSlothrop said:


> Source: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center


well the fact that the US doesn't even show one state in cold is an outright lie. One lie, none of the data can be trusted.  You lose.


----------



## TyroneSlothrop (Jul 20, 2015)

NOAA vs jc456...tough choice LOL


----------



## jc456 (Jul 20, 2015)

TyroneSlothrop said:


> NOAA vs jc456...tough choice LOL


so you don't have temperature data do you?


----------



## Uncensored2008 (Jul 20, 2015)

California is on a 7 year cycle - this is the wet year; in 2018 we will go back into drought. There is nothing unusual about this, it's been going on my entire life. The big difference now is the insane mismanagement that goes on under ruling democrats. They have no concept of building damns and reservoirs to capture rain when it falls.


----------



## Uncensored2008 (Jul 20, 2015)

TyroneSlothrop said:


> Source: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center




This is the coolest Spring/Summer in California in decades.

You cultists don't even try to appear rational anymore.

{
The swell, which originates from several storm systems south of the equator, was expected to peak Monday afternoon. Forecasters could extend a beach hazards statement until Tuesday because of lingering rip currents, Kaplan said.

Coastal temperatures Monday are expected to remain “cooler than normal,” with highs in the high 60s to mid 70s, Kaplan said. Parts of the San Fernando and Antelope valleys are expected to reach the high 70s, according to the weather service.}

Rip currents threaten swimmers on apos cooler than normal apos Memorial Day - LA Times

The bullshit lies you tell have no relation at all to reality.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 20, 2015)

Uncensored2008 said:


> TyroneSlothrop said:
> 
> 
> > Source: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center
> ...


Fiction, anyone can say whatever they want, but the warmers win the award for most fiction eva.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 20, 2015)

I laugh at the fool that thinks we're not having a powerful el nino. They're a loser and a moron!!! haha. They're as screwed up in the head as bruce jenner!


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 20, 2015)

2015 is going to be a very interesting year. Many records already broken for heat and precipitation events, many more going to be broken. And the whole time, we have the 'Conservatives' putting this political assessment on the year that these things cannot possibly be happening because it does not fit the way that they think thing ought to be. The political position is going to play out very interesting in 2016.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 21, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> 2015 is going to be a very interesting year. Many records already broken for heat and precipitation events, many more going to be broken. And the whole time, we have the 'Conservatives' putting this political assessment on the year that these things cannot possibly be happening because it does not fit the way that they think thing ought to be. The political position is going to play out very interesting in 2016.




If this follows the 1998 el nino then 2016 is going to put this year to shame. I wouldn't be surprised if we're well into the .8c for yearly avg next year.


----------



## shadow355 (Jul 21, 2015)

Matthew said:


> CFSv2 showing the strongest El Niño event on record, with an ONI of +2.6C, higher than 1997's peak value of +2.4C
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 

 And the last time this happened...something like three years ago, we had a bad winter in the Ohio Valley. More snow than I remember since the late 1980's.

 Prior to that, we in the Ohio Valley were lucky if we got 5" of snow the whole year , which averaged from a dusting to about an inch of snow each time it snowed.

  Shadow 355


----------



## jc456 (Jul 21, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> 2015 is going to be a very interesting year. Many records already broken for heat and precipitation events, many more going to be broken. And the whole time, we have the 'Conservatives' putting this political assessment on the year that these things cannot possibly be happening because it does not fit the way that they think thing ought to be. The political position is going to play out very interesting in 2016.


2016 will be a very cool year.  It will very interesting to watch the adjustments necessary to comply with failed models. And the threat to shoot the satellites down since they will be huge deniers.


----------



## mamooth (Jul 21, 2015)

jc, why do you want to shoot down satellites?

Should we be reporting you as a terrorist threat?


----------



## jc456 (Jul 21, 2015)

mamooth said:


> jc, why do you want to shoot down satellites?
> 
> Should we be reporting you as a terrorist threat?


so satellites are not deniers?  So their data is accurate?  Owe then, there is no warming.  Thanks for playing.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 21, 2015)

mamooth said:


> So you're not denying you want to shoot down satellites?


so you're now accepting satellite data?  hmmmmm... I don't think so.  nice try.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 21, 2015)

mamooth said:


> So precisely who says salinity is increasing?
> 
> And satellites vs. gauges. Gauges show more sea level rise.
> 
> Sea Level Climate Change US EPA



you never answered my question in this thread.


----------



## mamooth (Jul 21, 2015)

So do you want to shoot down satellites or not? It's not a complicated question. Why do you keep avoiding answering?


----------



## jc456 (Jul 21, 2015)

mamooth said:


> So do you want to shoot down satellites or not? It's not a complicated question. Why do you keep avoiding answering?


accepting satellite data now are you?  So you don't find them to be a denier eh?  LOL......hahahhahahahahaha


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 21, 2015)

I think it is really sad how many people on the right hate science. They'd whether just go back to the 18th century.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 22, 2015)

Matthew said:


> I think it is really sad how many people on the right hate science. They'd whether just go back to the 18th century.


so question since you think you're so much more science than me........How does a scientist prove a hypothesis?


----------



## Liminal (Jul 22, 2015)

Stephanie said:


> I don't know how you ever get any sleep. You're always freaking over the weather, climate on the earth, the environment, etc
> 
> Like you and all these politicians can wave a magic wand that will  cost us taxpayers, billions of dollars.......................and CHANGE IT


You seem confused about the content of the OP, as though all facts were subject to your shallow political interpretations.


----------



## mamooth (Jul 23, 2015)

It apos s critical El Ni o hits Northern California. Why experts are growing optimistic. - LA Times
---
By June, the official forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that both Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley would be in a region where odds favored wet conditions. Last week, the line moved north again, and San Francisco was included.

Still, the area north of San Francisco, where California's largest reservoirs — Shasta Lake and Lake Oroville — sit, has an equal chance of a dry or wet winter.

That could change if El Niño continues to muscle up, enabling storms to elbow into the north. That's what happened during the two biggest El Niños on record, in 1982-83 and 1997-98.
---


----------



## jc456 (Jul 23, 2015)

ruhroo, el nino confidence is receding.  LMAO


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 23, 2015)

I give it a 80% chance of becoming a super....Very early to be at 1.7c at 3.4 and all signs point to this getting to 2.0c within the next few months. 

Only fool couldn't see the writing on the wall.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 23, 2015)

Well the heat is gone off the coat of perue...



> Peruvian anchovy harvesters in the northern fishery have taken about 95 percent of the allowable catch while fishermen in the southern half of the fishery have landed about 70 percent of the quota.
> 
> To date fishermen have taken about 2.4 million tons of anchovy of the 2.58 million ton quota.  The southern catch is about 71 percent landed at 375,000 tons.
> 
> Overall, Peru's anchovy season is performing far better in 2015 compared to last season. The catch in the north is well over double last year's take at this time.



So while NOAA ramps up the rhetoric the fish say it isn't going to last long...  The Fish have an accuracy rate of 97% while NOAA ...... The heat is primarily surface and very little depth.

Source


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 23, 2015)

Well, Mr. BillyBob, given your accuracy to date on this El Nino, LOL!


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 23, 2015)

Matthew said:


> I give it a 80% chance of becoming a super....Very early to be at 1.7c at 3.4 and all signs point to this getting to 2.0c within the next few months.
> 
> Only fool couldn't see the writing on the wall.


And Billy Bob takes another spanking this week. Thank You, Mathew.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 23, 2015)

Poor  little libtards..  On the left is 2015. On the right is 1997.  Please note that there was substantial warmth coming up from the southern hemisphere which is not present today. The cold water bloom at the equator is slowing the west ward progression of warm water, very unlike the 97 event.  The heat is cut off and the fish harvest shows that it has.

Now you can go back to your worshiping of Obama and AGW....  If this lasts more than two months I will be greatly surprised.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 23, 2015)

1.7, Billy Bob. And just when might we expect your La Nina to begin? Next year about this time? And in the meantime, how strong is the El Nino going to get? You are going to get your weekly spanking from reality for a long time to come, Billy Bob.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 24, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> 1.7, Billy Bob. And just when might we expect your La Nina to begin? Next year about this time? And in the meantime, how strong is the El Nino going to get? You are going to get your weekly spanking from reality for a long time to come, Billy Bob.


I'm still waiting for the Elnino. Show me that first.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 25, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> 1.7, Billy Bob. And just when might we expect your La Nina to begin? Next year about this time? And in the meantime, how strong is the El Nino going to get? You are going to get your weekly spanking from reality for a long time to come, Billy Bob.



You wont have to wait long..






Sea temps have dropped dramatically in the last week. Many areas have dropped over 1 full degree C. Region 2-3 peaked this last week at 1.59 Anomaly and as it no longer has heat from the southern hemisphere to add to the equatorial mix  we are now seeing the end to the current El Nino.  I fully expect a drop in region 3-4 below 1.4 deg anomaly within the week. At the current rate of sea temperature decline it wont last more than two more months.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 25, 2015)

Can't wait until the Monday update! I'll predict it will be 1.9c at 3.4.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 26, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Can't wait until the Monday update! I'll predict it will be 1.9c at 3.4.


And if it's not?


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jul 26, 2015)

Jc456, I know more Meteorology in my little finger then you will ever care to understand. Maybe you should just watch as I post about this amazing event?


----------



## jc456 (Jul 26, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Jc456, I know more Meteorology in my little finger then you will ever care to understand. Maybe you should just watch as I post about this amazing event?


So not positive? Who cares if you have no confidence?


----------



## mamooth (Jul 26, 2015)

Stupid people tend to be brimming with absolute confidence, that being part of the Dunning-Kruger syndrome. It's the intelligent people who understand uncertainty.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 26, 2015)

Thus far Mathews predictions are running at about 100%, while those of Billy Bob and jc are at 0. That is a simple fact anyone can ascertain for themselves by simply reviewing this thread. Right now, it appears that we are going to have at least a very strong El Nino through the rest of the year, perhaps even a record breaking one.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 27, 2015)

mamooth said:


> Stupid people tend to be brimming with absolute confidence, that being part of the Dunning-Kruger syndrome. It's the intelligent people who understand uncertainty.


says Dr. Spock.


----------



## jc456 (Jul 27, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Jc456, I know more Meteorology in my little finger then you will ever care to understand. Maybe you should just watch as I post about this amazing event?


still no confidence in your little finger?


----------



## Old Rocks (Jul 28, 2015)

Almost all of the models indicate
Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will
remain greater than or equal to
+0.5ºC through spring 2016.
All multi-model averages suggest
that Niño 3.4 will be above
+1.5ºC (a “strong” El Niño)
during late 2015 into early 2016.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

*The El Nino remains strong, drop the pants, Billy Boy, the paddle is ready again this week. Currently 1.6.*


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 28, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Almost all of the models indicate
> Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will
> remain greater than or equal to
> +0.5ºC through spring 2016.
> ...



You lie AGAIN!!!!!






+1.49 Deg C anomaly.  A full 0.11 drop from last week..  The shift to cold has begun in 3-4...

Why do you find it necessary to lie OLD FRAUD?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jul 28, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Thus far Mathews predictions are running at about 100%, while those of Billy Bob and jc are at 0. That is a simple fact anyone can ascertain for themselves by simply reviewing this thread. Right now, it appears that we are going to have at least a very strong El Nino through the rest of the year, perhaps even a record breaking one.




The bull shit manufacturing continues... Cooling has now taken over just as I predicted...






No more heat flow from south america and the cold pools are decimating the heat pools cutting off flows.... Just the first week of temperature drop and it appears that cooling will happen significantly and fast. 4-6 weeks is all that is left of El Nino and its isn't a strong one..


----------



## mamooth (Jul 29, 2015)

WWF smackdown! El Nino vs. The Blob!

Why a super El Ni o could still be a bust for California drought relief - The Washington Post
---
But El Niño isn’t the only weather game in town, and there’s one major difference between this year and the strongest El Niño on record — a vast pool of much warmer than average water in the northeast Pacific Ocean, which some have dubbed “the blob.”

That pool of incredibly warm ocean water was a major player in the weather over western North America this past winter. A strong ridge of high pressure was parked over the region, keeping things warm and dry from California to Alaska. It was a tangled feedback process between hot, dry soil, the strong ridge, and the blob — all working together to enhance the ridge itself, leading to more hot, dry weather. The wintertime pattern has been so domineering that West Coast meteorologists dubbed it the “ridiculously resilient ridge.”

...

But the Capital Weather Gang’s Matt Rogers says the North Pacific warm pool is a powerhouse right now and could prove hard to overcome, especially if El Niño turns out to be weaker than predicted.
---


----------



## jc456 (Jul 29, 2015)

mamooth said:


> WWF smackdown! El Nino vs. The Blob!
> 
> Why a super El Ni o could still be a bust for California drought relief - The Washington Post
> ---
> ...


where? which buoy.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 1, 2015)

THE COOLING TREND INTENSIFIES AS THE BLOB' HEAT DISSIPATES...

Region 3-4 has dropped another .27 deg C this week.. Going to be interesting to see what NOAA posts tomorrow..


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 1, 2015)




----------



## jc456 (Aug 1, 2015)

Matthew said:


>


Funny graph no evidence of anything. 3.0 reads that graph.  Nothing more. Lose


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 1, 2015)

Matthew said:


>


Considering the delayed response of water vapor, not fully unexpected nor is it catastrophic.  Funnier still, it will vanish at much the same rate it appeared now that the ocean is no longer giving off so much heat.  The one wrinkle that is going to really mess with your alarmism, the fact that Hudson bay is freezing over already and recent mid July snows in the Rockies have not melted, as it is to cold at high elevation.  When it begins to snow in about two months at low elevations you had better hope the water vapor has gone down again or your alarmism is going to be buried under a heavy and unusual snow fall (Well, unusual only for those who were born after 1982, the rest of us know that it is not unusual or catastrophic).

BY the way, I see you have changed tactics now that your super El Nino is no longer in play.. Got to grasp on to something before you sink...


----------



## Crick (Aug 1, 2015)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Summary * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here. ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last through early spring 2016.*


----------



## jc456 (Aug 1, 2015)

Crick said:


> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
> 
> Summary * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here. ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last through early spring 2016.*


How long do we have to wait before conditions are reality?

Predictions after predictions!


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 2, 2015)

Crick said:


> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
> 
> Summary * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here. ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last through early spring 2016.*



I have read their discussion and had input of my own. They are missing the upper atmosphere cooling that has taken place. Watch closely for a significant revision in about two weeks as the warm pool continues to die..


----------



## Crick (Aug 2, 2015)

Where do all you deniers get the balls to seriously believe you're smarter than a multitude of PhDs putting out basics in their own field of expertise?  It's like a third grader telling you how to be a cop.


----------



## Crick (Aug 2, 2015)

Find us ONE OTHER climate scientist who agrees that they don't know how to do logs and that these ENSO predictions missed the upper atmosphere cooling and that YOU'VE got it right when all the experts with their fancy degrees who ACTUALLY DO THIS FOR A FUCKING LIVING got it wrong.  Okay?


----------



## westwall (Aug 2, 2015)

Crick said:


> Where do all you deniers get the balls to seriously believe you're smarter than a multitude of PhDs putting out basics in their own field of expertise?  It's like a third grader telling you how to be a cop.








Let us know when they are actually correct m'kay.  Till then, they are less credible than any other charlatan out there who has managed a better prediction rate....which pretty much every known charlatan has.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 2, 2015)

The easterlies are dying, the cold pool is now massive, and the Blob  heat around Baja is now being pulled to the equator heading west. The cold pool around Alaska and the straights is taking over.  Significant cooling is now starting in Alaska as shown by recent ambient air temps for the region barely above freezing during the day now.  Watch for the shift to become more rapid over coming weeks.  Nino region 3-4 is barely above + 1.0 Deg C anomaly  and the region of 1.5 deg C is all but gone in just two weeks.


----------



## Crick (Aug 2, 2015)

westwall said:


> Let us know when they are actually correct m'kay.  Till then, they are less credible than any other charlatan out there who has managed a better prediction rate....which pretty much every known charlatan has.



The ENSO index?  Bulllshit.
*
23.  Has a reasonable, scientific body come up with any meaningful conclusions and/or predictions in the field of physical oceanography regarding forcasting of the ocean?*


Regarding forecasting of the ocean, you may want to check out the following web page: NOAA PMEL TAO El Nino Forecasts, which summarizes a number of current El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts. These forecasts rely on predicting tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) months to seasons in advance. Various kinds of forecast schemes have been developed. Some are based on the statistics of previous ENSO variations, whereas others are based on actually simulating future changes in ocean currents and subsurface thermal structure.

ENSO forecasts are not perfect. However, they are sufficiently skillful at this point that individuals, corporations, municipalities, states, and national governments have used them to prepare for El Nino and La Nina events. We know that unsually warm or cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have major consequences for global climate and for Pacific marine ecosystems. Forecasting Pacific SSTs can therefore provide society with an opportunity to mitigate against adverse consequences or to take advantage of some of the positive aspects of ENSO-related environmental change. The recent 1997-98 El Nino was the most recent example of success in ENSO forecasting.

The advances in ENSO forecasting over the past 15 years have come about because of a major coordinated and ongoing international research effort, and there is a vast technical literature that describes this progress. If you want to learn more, a user friendly web gateway to El Nino and related information can be found at El Ni o Theme Page distributed information on El Ni o.

NOAA PMEL TAO Frequently asked Questons about El Nino and La Nina

If you've got a good source that says different, put up the link.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 2, 2015)

Unlike the 1998 El Nino there is no heat at depth.  This one is very shallow and the reason it is dissipating so rapidly.  The cold pool is welling up and dismantling the warm pool.  The shift to La Nina will be rapid.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 2, 2015)

Crick said:


> Where do all you deniers get the balls to seriously believe you're smarter than a multitude of PhDs putting out basics in their own field of expertise?  It's like a third grader telling you how to be a cop.




These are the same people that believes that cutting investment in infrastructure, science, r&d and education will grow America. I'll stick with people that have studied and spent a life time of learning to be able to say as they do....Believe me, I do pay attention to the real skeptics as I am one that has believed in the pause all the way back since 2004 but to sit here and tell me that el nino is bull shit, the green house effect is a lie and the entire noaa is a fraud...Well, proves to me that you're nutz and probably deserve to be ignored.


----------



## jc456 (Aug 2, 2015)

Crick said:


> Where do all you deniers get the balls to seriously believe you're smarter than a multitude of PhDs putting out basics in their own field of expertise?  It's like a third grader telling you how to be a cop.


Because we experience weather and climate that doesn't lineup to their models. And then say the science is settled and mere reasonable people know there's no way. Then when queried to show data refuse. And that's suspicious. To many. 

That's how!


----------



## jc456 (Aug 2, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > Where do all you deniers get the balls to seriously believe you're smarter than a multitude of PhDs putting out basics in their own field of expertise?  It's like a third grader telling you how to be a cop.
> ...


Where'd you get that lie?


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 3, 2015)

*Drop the pants for your weekly, Mr. Billy Bob. *

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Almost all of the models indicate Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will remain greater than or equal to +0.5ºC through spring 2016. All multi-model averages suggest that Niño 3.4 will be above 
+1.5ºC (a “strong” El Niño) during late 2015 into early 2016.

*Mathew, please do the honors. Present 3.4 is 1.7. *


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 3, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> *Drop the pants for your weekly, Mr. Billy Bob. *
> 
> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
> 
> ...



You really are a fucking moron..  Hide and watch dufuss.. Your three month clock has just been reset.


----------



## jc456 (Aug 3, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > *Drop the pants for your weekly, Mr. Billy Bob. *
> ...


Model model always model.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 3, 2015)

I expect this to cross 2.0c by Oct...Must be nice being wrong and living your entire life to weaken America.


----------



## jc456 (Aug 4, 2015)

Matthew said:


> I expect this to cross 2.0c by Oct...Must be nice being wrong and living your entire life to weaken America.


I can put a dollar on a number on a roulette table and have a probability to win.  The odds aren't with me however.  You're predicting with your dollar.  Just don't use mine.  I know you'll be wrong, because history tells us so.


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 4, 2015)

Thus far, the history of the predictions on this El Nino are about 100% for Mathew, and about 0% for you and Billy Bob. Just review this thread. It is just laughable how wrong you to ignoramouses have been.


----------



## jc456 (Aug 5, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Thus far, the history of the predictions on this El Nino are about 100% for Mathew, and about 0% for you and Billy Bob. Just review this thread. It is just laughable how wrong you to ignoramouses have been.


where is it then?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 6, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Thus far, the history of the predictions on this El Nino are about 100% for Mathew, and about 0% for you and Billy Bob. Just review this thread. It is just laughable how wrong you to ignoramouses have been.



Your a legend in your own mind....  But that is the only place your a legend..  The rest of us know better..


----------



## Crick (Aug 7, 2015)

The rest of us can read.  You're batting 000 Mr Weatherman


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 7, 2015)

Last months averages are in for the US and Canadian areas. Despite the El Nino, no state was above average for July.  Our Office of meteorologists looked at the EU and the Northern Hemisphere in general and found that the majority of the Northern hemisphere was below average temp.

Given a moderate El Nino we should be experiencing higher temperatures than normal in Pacific Ocean states and following the jet stream down wind. But it isn't happening. When we looked at night time temperatures (these are where latent heat will show itself) and all were at or below average for their respective areas.   The 64,000 dollar question is why? This question sparked a lively debate among our diverse group of scientists.

One of the agreed upon observations was one of the polar jet and the polar low remaining twice as strong this summer. One need only look to the Hudson Bay freeze over increase during the middle of summer. Ice levels are increasing due to very low night time temperatures and near freezing temps during the day.  We agreed that the polar low is impacting below 75 Deg Lat and has been since last winter.  Much of Canada is well below normal by 2.6 deg C. as is much of Europe.  The Atlantic is very cold and will remain so for then next 15-25 years. Equatorial heat is not present as is evident in our no major Atlantic hurricane season.

The cold flow is only being disrupted in the Pacific and only below 45 Deg Lat.






YOU will note near the end of the loop that the cold water is already pushing into the Oregon coast line and very cold water is already pushing down the eastern seaboard of the US.  The atmospheric pressures are pushing the cold to lower latitudes.

Now this is where there is some dissension in the group.  Some think that we will see warming in nighttime temps the next few months of Oregon, California, Washington, Nevada and Arizona while others seem to think that it will be wide spread. Here in lies the problem, the barometric pressure is dropping in the northern US already towards winter time levels. This generally shifts the equatorial warm weather patterns southward. Any warming from El Nino will be very limited to coastal states.

With cooling in the Arctic Ocean and the Bering straights, there is no heat to cause warming in the polar jet flow which is now becoming predominate over the mid west and east of the great divide. Thus there will be little to no warming above 45- 50 deg Lat.

I dare to say the this El Nino will be one that is very confined to small areas and it wont give them the "hottest ev'a" that they desire.  That said, if the atmospheric water content remains high, the western US is going to get one hell of a winter with the amount of cold that is pushing southward.

Western US Cities and highway departments have been doubling their standard orders for deicing and sand products according to regional suppliers of Soda Ash, Salt and Sand. It seems they too are preparing for a very long, cold, and deep winter season.


----------



## Crick (Aug 8, 2015)

What was the source of your material Billy?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 8, 2015)

Crick said:


> What was the source of your material Billy?



MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet.  Did you rest well at LaQuinta?


----------



## longknife (Aug 8, 2015)

*El Niño Partially Closes Panama Canal*








_The Panama Canal will be temporarily closed to ships above a certain size owing to a drought that has lowered lakes feeding the waterway. The restrictions are to go into effect on September 8._


Lots of reports on the web about this weather phenomenon. Changing patterns are going to severely hurt some places and help others.


Read more @ Panama Canal limits ship size amid El Nino drought News DW.COM 08.08.2015


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 8, 2015)

longknife said:


> *El Niño Partially Closes Panama Canal*
> 
> 
> 
> ...



And it has happened two other times in its history...  Most reports on the web fail to mention them.  Low budget Journalism... kind of like low information voters.. neither take the time to research and find out for themselves.


----------



## flacaltenn (Aug 8, 2015)

Crick said:


> westwall said:
> 
> 
> > Let us know when they are actually correct m'kay.  Till then, they are less credible than any other charlatan out there who has managed a better prediction rate....which pretty much every known charlatan has.
> ...



Not hard to predict El Nino "like" events. Or even the occurence of one. The talent would be forecasting the INTENSITY AND DURATION of the event..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 8, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > westwall said:
> ...



Now this is fact! 

One of the biggest disputes in our office is why we have not seen an increase in PM temperatures (or latent heat).  US-CRN shows no PM increase and neither does RSS.  They want to know what is canceling it out.  Prediction of what these things are going to do is very hard to get right.  The only thing we could agree on was the increased size of the polar low and jet through the summer.  How that shift is affecting the northern hemisphere is rather interesting. East of the great divide and throughout the Midwest we have had no warming. It has been, in fact, cooler than normal by -0.6 deg C.  Only the coastal states have seen any effect in heat (very little however as well) while the rest of the states have cooled due to increased water content in the atmosphere.

In 1998 the polar low was very small and confined to the pole. This year however it is twice average size as is the polar jet as well. Its going to be a wild US winter for the western US if this cold continues to build this early.

It is the interactions of different systems which we do not fully understand which make prediction so hard..


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 8, 2015)

Predicting the formation of a positive enso event let a lone strength and time span is very hard. This is the importance of research and investing in buoies to better understand them. Understanding our planets climate and weather patterns is a reasonable thing to do to protect civilization and should be invested in. I could name dozens of civilizations that died because they didn't understand such events.

Based on the data we do have I'd say we have a strong nino and all the experts will agree with that.


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 8, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > What was the source of your material Billy?
> ...


LOL.


----------



## jc456 (Aug 8, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > What was the source of your material Billy?
> ...


He was at a holiday inn express that's where anybody can be anything they want to be


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 9, 2015)

Weekly ENSO information again tomorrow, get ready to drop your pants again, Mr. Billy Bob.


----------



## Crick (Aug 9, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > What was the source of your material Billy?
> ...



1) My asking you for a source should not make you angry.
2) If by your LaQuinta comment, you mean to reveal personal information about me, you have violated one of the more serious rules here.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 9, 2015)

Crick said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > Crick said:
> ...













With both regions three and four taking a dip of -0.20 Deg C.  There should be little or no change... Maybe a slight fall in overall temp.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 9, 2015)

Dailys on Levi Cowan's site are almost @ 2.0 for Nino 3.4.


----------



## flacaltenn (Aug 9, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > Billy_Bob said:
> ...



I sure wouldn't be betting more than what's in my wallet on that..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 9, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > Crick said:
> ...



Depends on whether or not the boys over at NASA have been tweaking the data.   Going to be taking a very close look at Antarctic and Arctic ice data this week as it appears we may be having sever sensor drift on one of the satellites used for this calculation. The rapid pronounced deviation, in the southern hemisphere, without a significant global event, leads me to suspect a failure and the need to look at it very closely. It appears very suspicious.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 9, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> flacaltenn said:
> 
> 
> > Billy_Bob said:
> ...



If you grid map Cryosphere's images for the week prior to and after July 5 when the rapid shift occurred there is no rapid melt or ice break up. A 2.3 million square Kl break up of ice would be very noticeable. So either the satellite's sensors have gone on vacation or we have had a manipulation of the data. The physical imagery of the area in question does not support this reported loss of ice.





You will note that it is an abrupt change in 5-7 days. This is commonly seen in sensor failures or shifts in sensor calibrations. You will note that there are no other shifts of this magnitude or duration in the other plotted years data sets.


----------



## Crick (Aug 10, 2015)

A satellite whose raw data requires adjustment?  Say it isn't so!


----------



## flacaltenn (Aug 10, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > flacaltenn said:
> ...



Before you declare a Code Red fraud alert  ---- I would check the weather.. Ya gotta remember the reason I don't do Ice is partly these silly metrics that everyone panics about. You are not looking at a number describing the actual polar cap of sea ice... That number includes grids of sea surface that have as LITTLE as 15% icing. 
Literally ICE CUBES bobbing in open ocean. So you bring on a storm system that piles it back to shore and VOILA --- You get a remarkable dip in the number..


----------



## mamooth (Aug 10, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> A 2.3 million square Kl break up of ice would be very noticeable.



Once more, Billy seems incapable of basic graph reading. On his graph, the decrease is more like 0.3 million, over the span of a week. As flac pointed out, that's easily possible for a wind compaction event. As this chart shows, such events are common.






One thing to note is that NSIDC and CT use different methods to report ice. NSIDC uses extent, CT uses area. "Extent" means counting the area of the holes in the swiss cheese in the final tally, while "area" leaves the holes out. Extent is always more than area, so the NSIDC numbers are always bigger than the CT numbers.

The Antarctic sea ice is "retreating" a bit this year. That is, the peak will not be breaking any new records. No conclusions can be drawn from a single year, so it's not possible to say that a corner has been turned. At some point, however, the anti-ice effect of warmer temperatures will override the pro-ice effects of fresher water, more snow and more wind spreading, and the Antarctic sea ice will start trending down.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 10, 2015)

Text of CPC weekly update of 8/10/15 that has nino 3.4 at +1.9C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 10, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > Crick said:
> ...



 No Change... As I suspected.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 10, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > Billy_Bob said:
> ...



Funny...

You have just explained why this is an arbitrary number and easily shifted one way or the other...


----------



## flacaltenn (Aug 10, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> flacaltenn said:
> 
> 
> > Billy_Bob said:
> ...



Man -- that's some ballsy forecasting. You got a chart that rising faster than a new tranny show on TV and you want to call this week or month "the top"..

Can I get you to take a look at Netflix stock and call THAT peak for me?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 10, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > flacaltenn said:
> ...



Pretty sure this is not the top. Only a lull.. Were going to see one or two more jumps but +1.8 is still not out of reach.  We have had some westerlies push more heat out there but it is still very shallow heat and wont last long. The region 4 cold pool is going to put the kibosh to the majority of it.





The blob is all but gone and cooling is rapidly hiting the northern US shore lines.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 10, 2015)

1997 3.4 was 1.8c this week
2015 3.4 is 1.9c

The highest weekly 3.4 temperature in history was 2.8c in Nov 1997.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 11, 2015)

NOAA's Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) was updated August 4th.  

"the updated (June-July) MEI has dropped slighty (by 0.09 standard deviations in one month) to +1.97, it is now reaching the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only by 1997 at this time of year. The MEI has hovered around +2 standard deviations for two months running, highest overall since early 1998."

See more at:  Earth System Research Laboratory PSD none


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 11, 2015)

Matthew said:


> 1997 3.4 was 1.8c this week
> 2015 3.4 is 1.9c
> 
> The highest weekly 3.4 temperature in history was 2.8c in Nov 1997.


where are you getting your extremely exaggerated numbers?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 11, 2015)

Matthew said:


> NOAA's Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) was updated August 4th.
> 
> "the updated (June-July) MEI has dropped slighty (by 0.09 standard deviations in one month) to +1.97, it is now reaching the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only by 1997 at this time of year. The MEI has hovered around +2 standard deviations for two months running, highest overall since early 1998."
> 
> See more at:  Earth System Research Laboratory PSD none



I should have guessed.. *A model,* which doesn't predict anything correctly.


----------



## jc456 (Aug 11, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Matthew said:
> 
> 
> > NOAA's Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) was updated August 4th.
> ...


I've been telling him that day after day when I do post.


----------



## Crick (Aug 13, 2015)

Will El Ni o 2015 rival the strongest year on record - CNN.com

If you're actually being paid anything to do el Nino forecasts, Billy Boy, they're paying you infinitely too much.


----------



## Crick (Aug 13, 2015)

A "Godzilla" of an el Nino

Forecasters warn that Godzilla El Nino could hit U.S. - CBS News

Billy Boy, have you been attempting to impress your bosses with your El Nino predicting skills?  How's that coming along?  Are they impressed yet?


----------



## jc456 (Aug 13, 2015)

Crick said:


> A "Godzilla" of an el Nino
> 
> Forecasters warn that Godzilla El Nino could hit U.S. - CBS News
> 
> Billy Boy, have you been attempting to impress your bosses with your El Nino predicting skills?  How's that coming along?  Are they impressed yet?


Still waiting for words other than could, should, predict than it will matter.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 13, 2015)

Crick said:


> Will El Ni o 2015 rival the strongest year on record - CNN.com
> 
> If you're actually being paid anything to do el Nino forecasts, Billy Boy, they're paying you infinitely too much.



The horse shit is strong in this one.....

Its funny to watch you fools flail about..


----------



## Crick (Aug 14, 2015)

So the PhDs at NOAA are the fools, and the ex-cop, might-be-a-student is the master.  Got it.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 14, 2015)

Nino Region 4 is declining rapidly.. Cold pools are decimating the warmth as it rises to surface.






Region Three has peaked and were not expecting further rise the next few weeks as region 1-2 has dropped significantly this week and further heat input is declining. [below]






Might get a slight up tick this week in 3-4 but it is now waning with easterlies now reinforced and westerly's dying....  NO help from the winds...


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 14, 2015)

Rapid cooling is now the new game. cold pools (-0.5 deg C or more) have increased 2.79% in just the last week along the equator.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 14, 2015)

This shows almost a full deg C drop in most equatorial regions and the heat is now being deflected into the southern hemisphere.

Its looking like we have peaked.  One or two more weeks will tell the tale.


----------



## Crick (Aug 15, 2015)

Is your boss impressed with your arguments?


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 15, 2015)

LOL. Wonderful to have a nice record of Mr. Billy Bob's predictions right here. Reading back over them can provide all the insight one needs to judge Billy Bob's abilities in meteorology. Perhaps he had better just continue his career of flipping burgers.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 15, 2015)




----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 15, 2015)

Really hope that upper end doesn't happen. Even the lowest line puts us into an El Nino until Mar16. The upper line? Well, that would be interesting.


----------



## flacaltenn (Aug 15, 2015)

Matthew said:


>



Well I'll be.. If that aint almost every CONCEIVABLE path to unwinding by Jan..

What did they do? Ask Siri which way to Starbucks?? Now be fair to Billy Bob..

There is ONE (maybe TWO)  prediction in there that pretty much calls this the peak.. 

I'd say they in as much grief as Billy Bob is since ALL their bets are pretty well centered around Jan to unwind this.. Maybe there's another "plume" that covers the table on longevity.
Bet they pull that one out if they lose with this one..


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 15, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> Matthew said:
> 
> 
> >
> ...




That is one ensemble spread....I wish I could say what I feel but I leave sleeping dogs lay. I am quite frankly a little angry at the moment.


----------



## flacaltenn (Aug 15, 2015)

Don't sweat it Matthew.. That's the European model. What do Europeans know about the Pacific Ocean anyways??


----------



## Crick (Aug 16, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> Well I'll be.. If that aint almost every CONCEIVABLE path to unwinding by Jan..



Not quite.  There's not a single projection there that supports Billy Boy's conjectures.


----------



## longknife (Aug 16, 2015)

Didn't link to it but predictions are for an extremely cold winter with lots of snowfall.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 16, 2015)

Crick said:


> flacaltenn said:
> 
> 
> > Well I'll be.. If that aint almost every CONCEIVABLE path to unwinding by Jan..
> ...



There are 7 in that spaghetti mess which share my projections.   You really have a hard time with graphs, dont you!


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 16, 2015)

longknife said:


> Didn't link to it but predictions are for an extremely cold winter with lots of snowfall.



Yep! that fact is not conjecture and supported by empirical evidence.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 16, 2015)

*This year’s El Niño could be the strongest ever recorded*



> The world could be headed for one of the strongest El Niños in recorded history, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)said Thursday. A strong El Niño event would disrupt weather patterns across the globe, boost global temperatures—and help relieve California’s historic drought.
> El Niño, a climate phenomenon triggered by unusually warm temperatures along the equatorial Pacific, affects weather across the planet. The warmer Pacific surface temperatures are above the norm, the more significant forecasters predict El Niño will be. This year, climate forecasters observed sea surface temperatures more than 3.6°F (2°C) above average across the east central Pacific Ocean. That level of heat has only been recorded three times in the last 65 years, and all three occurrences matched with strong El Niño events.




It's already 1.9...So I find it almost "certain" that 3.4 will cross 2.0c and become one of less then a handfull of super nino's in recorded history.  Can we all agree that this "short term" event effects the planets weather in ways that can do damage to one place or another through drought or extreme rainfall? Isn't that reason enough to want to learn more.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 16, 2015)

Matthew said:


> *This year’s El Niño could be the strongest ever recorded*
> 
> 
> 
> ...



As long as the alarmists will agree that MAN IS NOT THE CAUSE and we CAN NOT CONTROL IT!..  The El Nino projection is dead wrong IMHO.. more scaremongering as it is dying..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 16, 2015)

Region 1-2 continues to cool rapidly.  This last week looks to be around -.3 deg C of cooling..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 16, 2015)

Region 3-4 might bump to 1.8 but it will fall rapidly after that..  The heat is very localized and dissipating in areas.. El Nino wont last long now. The region of extremely cold water is now intruding from the south on the equator.. the turn to La Nina will be rapid.


----------



## Crick (Aug 16, 2015)

Do you believe this el Nino will end before the end of 2015?


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 16, 2015)

Crick said:


> Do you believe this el Nino will end before the end of 2015?



NO,,,probably won't end to at least June 2016. Billybob makes me laugh and I very rarely read his stuff as to keep my sanity I have him on ignore! hahaha.

The el nino is one thing you have to admit is a fact as it is right there staring back at you.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 16, 2015)

I get most of my graphs from either the noaa, nasa, Americanwx or storm2k.  I am a meteorological nut. 

So it isn't like I am going to political blogs. hahaha


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 16, 2015)

Well, Billy Bob, your weekly warning, drop your pants one more time for your weekly reminder of your stupidity. The El Nino continues.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 17, 2015)

Super nino!

Text of weekly CPC update that has Nino 3.4 up to +2.0C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

2.0C as our Niño 3.4 reading, highest since Feb 11 1998


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 17, 2015)

70% chance of the El Nino continuing until May of next year.


----------



## Gracie (Aug 17, 2015)

Just cleaned up the back yard some more....hefted stuff outta the shed to put my lounge chair pads in...pruned some shrubs..made a few ditches to lead out into the field behind me...in general...prepping for the storms that MIGHT hit us sometime in October. Will give us much needed water but not nearly enough. Still, some is better than none.

I highly recommend west coasters to do the same.


----------



## Crick (Aug 17, 2015)

2015 vs 1997







I think we ought to collect all of Billy Bob's posts on this thread and play them back for him next... oh... February.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 17, 2015)

Crick said:


> 2015 vs 1997
> 
> 
> 
> ...


data source?  or did you just make it up?






Reality doesn't look anything like your model.

Source


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 17, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Well, Billy Bob, your weekly warning, drop your pants one more time for your weekly reminder of your stupidity. The El Nino continues.


Funny, I stated 1.8  and it only managed 1.78... hmmmmmm seems your the one bent over..


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 17, 2015)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The latest weekly SST 
departures are:
Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 2.0ºC
Niño 3 2.2ºC
Niño 1+2 2.0ºC

*Poor Billy Bob.*


----------



## Crick (Aug 17, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > 2015 vs 1997
> ...




That's not a model Mr Inept..  Do you not see the TOPEX and Jason labels?  Do you not know what TOPEX and Jason are?  Here's the original caption:

Side by side comparison of Pacific Ocean sea surface height (SSH) anomalies in 2015 (right) and during the famous 1997 El Niño (left). These 1997 and 2015 El Niño images were made from data collected by the TOPEX/Poseidon (1997) and the OSTM/Jason-2 (2015) satellites.
 NASA


----------



## mamooth (Aug 18, 2015)

The trend of global surface temperatures tends to lag the Nino3.4 trend by about 4 months.

Nino3.4 started trending up sharply in June. It might peak around December.

So, the global averages are only going up more. By March 2016, the global temp average will probably break the +1.0C anomaly for the first time.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 18, 2015)

Here is a nice graph showing the past 35 years of 3.4!!!!


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 23, 2015)

Kind of figured we see a jump but I did not expect this much of one. Taking this one right to the Top NOAA and GISS are.  Going to have to check independent sources and see if the good old boys are doctoring data again.. SOSUS and other sources of buoy data do not reflect the temp increases these people are purporting.  Even satellite data shows the level of warming is not present.

And they posted it one day early for some reason... Oh that's right, NOAA's urgent news to help Obama push his agenda this week.. Got to get a good start in the news cycle..






The heat simply is not present...


----------



## Crick (Aug 24, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> And they posted it one day early for some reason... Oh that's right, NOAA's urgent news to help Obama push his agenda this week.. Got to get a good start in the news cycle..



What you forgot was the idea of objectivity, following evidence and not making assumptions based on your pre-existing bias.


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 24, 2015)

Time to get ready for your weekly, Mr. Billy Bob.


----------



## Crick (Aug 24, 2015)

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: El Niño Southern Oscillation


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 24, 2015)

Crick said:


> CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: El Niño Southern Oscillation



I have seen the anomaly chart which doesn't track with observed SST's.  WHY doesn't it?  its showing a full deg C to high in anomaly.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 24, 2015)

Text of CPC weekly update up to +2.1C at Nino 3.4.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Not bad for something that isn't suppose to be happening. LOL....I am laughing.


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 25, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: El Niño Southern Oscillation
> ...


Poor little Billy Bob of the red ass. The present El Nino just keeps doing what the scientists said it was likely to do. And nobody at all pays attention to an internet imposter that claims to know more than the scientists. One that has demonstrated a complete lack of knowledge of science.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 25, 2015)

How about some real facts and not a bunch of contrived BS from alarmists...






The daily loop of temps tells us a very different story from the one being spun by NOAA and GISS.

First off region one is cooling rapidly..






Secondly, Region three has peaked.. and is now cooling as the plus indicators showing 3 day averages shows.






Region Four has now peaked as well..  and is rapidly cooling..






The 3/4 average is doing exactly the opposite of the two regions it is supposed to average. This is why I dont believe the crap NOAA is spewing.  The empirical evidence says a continued rise should not be happening.

Graphing source


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 25, 2015)

LOL. And how many times have you posted crap like this, and then, within two weeks, it looked just as ridiculous as this will two weeks from now. What the hell were you bleating about a couple of months ago? El Mulko, or some such thing? Where did that go, dear little Billy Bob?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 25, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> LOL. And how many times have you posted crap like this, and then, within two weeks, it looked just as ridiculous as this will two weeks from now. What the hell were you bleating about a couple of months ago? El Mulko, or some such thing? Where did that go, dear little Billy Bob?


As long as you keep posting your lies and crap.. I'll keep posting the truth..


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 25, 2015)

LOL. The truth and you have yet to make any aquaintance, Mr. BillyBob. All anyone has to do is look back over this thread to tell that.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 28, 2015)

The truth is pretty shocking look at this graph!

Jan Null on Twitter


----------



## jc456 (Aug 28, 2015)

longknife said:


> Didn't link to it but predictions are for an extremely cold winter with lots of snowfall.


they call that la nina


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 29, 2015)




----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 30, 2015)

Get ready to drop the pants, again, Billy Bob. Tomorrow is Monday. El Nino data will be posted again.


----------



## CrusaderFrank (Aug 30, 2015)

Matthew said:


> The truth is pretty shocking look at this graph!
> 
> Jan Null on Twitter



Yawn


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 30, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Matthew said:
> 
> 
> > The truth is pretty shocking look at this graph!
> ...




I'm sorry that one of the top 5 strongest nino's of the past 150 years makes you yawn! Why are you part of this discussion if you're so bored by it?


----------



## Katzndogz (Aug 30, 2015)

longknife said:


> Didn't link to it but predictions are for an extremely cold winter with lots of snowfall.


The two are not mutually exclusive.   El Nino refers to the ocean temperature out in the Pacific.   Snowfall, of course is going to happen in colder climates, most of which are not way out in the Pacific Ocean. 

El Nino is warm ocean currents.  La Nina is cooler ocean currents.   Neither has anything to do with surface land temperatures.


----------



## CrusaderFrank (Aug 30, 2015)

Matthew said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > Matthew said:
> ...



It's just so boring.

All these "EEEEKKKK!!! It's da end of da World!  It's the Warmest, greatest, etc EVAH!!

All from a wisp of CO2?

You have serious issues


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 30, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Matthew said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...




I am a lover of meteorology...If that means I have serious issues...Well, lol. This has nothing what so fucking ever with co2...

 and I believe you have serious issues. If you don't like meteorology maybe you should get a job and a life.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 30, 2015)

Matthew said:


> The truth is pretty shocking look at this graph!
> 
> Jan Null on Twitter





Matthew said:


>



Your top post doesn't reckon with your bottom post showing cooling..  Yet you still believe without question...


----------



## depotoo (Aug 30, 2015)

Wow!  That is earth shattering!  May be strongeest in a whole 66 years of records, when the earth has lived for thousands!  


Crick said:


> Will El Ni o 2015 rival the strongest year on record - CNN.com
> 
> If you're actually being paid anything to do el Nino forecasts, Billy Boy, they're paying you infinitely too much.


----------



## depotoo (Aug 30, 2015)

Honey, I've been following meteorology probably longer than you have been alive.  It is called being able to sort fact from false theory.





Matthew said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > Matthew said:
> ...


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 30, 2015)

depotoo said:


> Honey, I've been following meteorology probably longer thanmyou have been alive.  It is called being able to sort fact from false theory.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




20 fucking years, nut. Hard core weather nut on the boards with as many post as here. El Nino is a fact and if you can't accept that then you need to check your sorry ass into a institution.

I chase storms! That is my life outside of talking to the nutz on this board.


----------



## depotoo (Aug 30, 2015)

You are right.  El nino is a fact.  Does it show up on average every 2 to 7 years?  Yes. The strongest in history?  We have only 66 years of records to compare, and they admit they still need to do deeper studies of the phenomenons of el nino, the neutral phase, and la nina.   there can be phases where it can last only a few months to years.   
And I beat you in the age factor. 





Matthew said:


> depotoo said:
> 
> 
> > Honey, I've been following meteorology probably longer thanmyou have been alive.  It is called being able to sort fact from false theory.
> ...


----------



## jc456 (Aug 30, 2015)

depotoo said:


> Wow!  That is earth shattering!  May be strongeest in a whole 66 years of records, when the earth has lived for thousands!
> 
> 
> Crick said:
> ...


Million


----------



## depotoo (Aug 30, 2015)

I meant to write -thousands upon thousands. 
I got distracted.





jc456 said:


> depotoo said:
> 
> 
> > Wow!  That is earth shattering!  May be strongest in a whole 66 years of records, when the earth has lived for thousands!
> ...


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 30, 2015)

El nino is real and it is natural cycle. Accept it or not,,,I don't care as you're ignore. haha


----------



## Billy_Bob (Aug 31, 2015)

Region three dropped 0.38 deg C this week and region four dropped 0.47 deg C this week yet we have cumulative rise to 2.02 in the combined 3-4..  Not sure how their math works out but it isn't following any form of logic.  

I'm sure some alarmist drone will be along soon to tell us how it makes sense..


----------



## jc456 (Aug 31, 2015)

depotoo said:


> I meant to write -thousands upon thousands.
> I got distracted.
> 
> 
> ...


that's easy in here that's for sure.


----------



## depotoo (Aug 31, 2015)

Yeah, Matthew informed me I am now on ignore due to not believing in el nino.  He reads posts as fantasies of how awful those on the right are, rather than their actual content.  He totally ignores what I actually said.





jc456 said:


> depotoo said:
> 
> 
> > I meant to write -thousands upon thousands.
> ...


----------



## jc456 (Aug 31, 2015)

depotoo said:


> Yeah, Matthew informed me I am now on ignore due to not believing in el nino.  He reads posts as fantasies of how awful those on the right are, rather than their actual content.  He totally ignores what I actually said.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


matts not a true liberal though.  he confuses me at times in here.  Just when I think he's liberal, he comes up with a comment that actually makes sense. He isn't actually wrong at this time, he is purely playing a card and hoping it doesn't get trumped.  And in his defense he never once has blamed CO2 as he pointed out.  However, he loses me when he writes things that get into extremes, it will be so hot or warmest or something like that.

The fact is, there is no weather changes over land, and by now if the el nino was going to happen, the arctic flow should have stopped, and it hasn't.  So, until that happens, I'm holding my cards. Chicago just had another cool summer and isn't indicative of el nino patterns here.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 31, 2015)

Drop your pants and spread that fucking ass you know nothing idiots!!!
*
2.2c at 3.4!!!!* Strongest August Reading in recorded history!  Beating out 1997.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

NINO is a fact! Anyone that thinks otherwise should go find a book in it or get a life.


----------



## depotoo (Aug 31, 2015)

I'd love to know who in this thread has denied el nino exists.


----------



## depotoo (Aug 31, 2015)

My problem here is  Matthew has the tendency to just take for gospel what he reads, rather than go back to a source, or research it himself.  Many times he has posted threads about records set, when in actuality we have no idea if indeed a record has been set, when we only have, depending on the subject, anywhere from around 150 years of actual data, to as little as 10 or 15, yet a record is set.  How can that be?  If he were to qualify his statements with how long such data has been recorded, I would have no problem with it.  He doesn't, just as most of the article authors don't as well, hoping to mislead and suggest it all has to be due to agw.  Another problem is some of the article authors jump to their own conclusions, rather than mentioning the original research may state more study needs to be done to come to firm conclusions, etc.- all for their own agenda.  That irritates the heck out of me.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Aug 31, 2015)

You small government assholes would flush 200 years of meteorological data and science before you'd admit that you're wrong. I will keep you on ignore for the simple fact that it isn't worth debating.

You think you're so right even through all the data says that simply isn't so. If you had your way you'd defund everything and never maintain the buoy's, satellites or observation stations.


----------



## jc456 (Aug 31, 2015)

Matthew said:


> You small government assholes would flush 200 years of meteorological data and science before you'd admit that you're wrong. I will keep you on ignore for the simple fact that it isn't worth debating.
> 
> You think you're so right even through all the data says that simply isn't so. If you had your way you'd defund everything and never maintain the buoy's, satellites or observation stations.


tharrrrrrrrr she blows!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Crick (Aug 31, 2015)

depotoo said:


> I'd love to know who in this thread has denied el nino exists.



That would Billy Boy, or super duper weatherman


----------



## Old Rocks (Aug 31, 2015)

jc456 said:


> depotoo said:
> 
> 
> > Yeah, Matthew informed me I am now on ignore due to not believing in el nino.  He reads posts as fantasies of how awful those on the right are, rather than their actual content.  He totally ignores what I actually said.
> ...


Hmmmmmm...............  A drought over the whole west, with the fires being measured in 100's of square miles, but no changes over land. jc, you are one stupid laddie.


----------



## jc456 (Sep 1, 2015)

Crick said:


> depotoo said:
> 
> 
> > I'd love to know who in this thread has denied el nino exists.
> ...


that's just a flat out lie friend.  Seems you enjoy the attempt to push blame to someone.  the fact is, he has been posting accurate accounts of the temperature of the Pacific in strategic posts.  never has he claimed there isn't the presence of el nino.  The length and strength of it and it hanging around.  So sir, you owe a great big arse apology to Billy.  Let's see it now.


----------



## jc456 (Sep 1, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > depotoo said:
> ...


hahahahaha, sir the deflection of your post is trivial.  The fact is, there are many explanations on why the area under fire has burned, and it has nothing at all to do with drought or CO2.  so go look in the mirror and flip yourself off.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Sep 1, 2015)

If you can't agree with me on this el nino,,,well, you can't agree with anything in the sciences of our planet. You're a unreasonable person. 

SSH comparison between the two super Nino's of the past 20 years from Jason-2






 This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 1598x712.


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 1, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > depotoo said:
> ...


*LOL. Damn, jc, save you lies for something less easy to disprove. Post #12 on this thread;*

EL NADA is about to go away with a vengeance as cooler water is now cycling and a La Nina is building...






Were about to have a serious drop in ocean temps.. And Mathew is hoping like hell it will last through may and the Paris convention... At current rate of decline we will go negative mid May.


----------



## jc456 (Sep 1, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Crick said:
> ...


Can you read?  Dude, LOL, what does it say it says....*.EL NADA is about to go awa*y.  That implies, fools gold, that he knew it was there and going away.  AIN'T THAT WHAT I SAID?  go to the same mirror and flip yourself your middle finger.  What an ass.


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 1, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > jc456 said:
> ...


U.S. Drought Monitor | U.S. Drought Portal

*U.S. Drought Monitor*




*This, along with high winds, could not possibly have anything to do with the fires. Right?*


----------



## jc456 (Sep 1, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...


what a nice colorful map.  What is it to show me?  Will it give me the amount of brush was in a forest?  Don't think so, don't see any.  Dude, you have a real big problem.  You never have anything of quality to post.  This is pure horse manure and has nothing to do with el nino as is the op.  So what is it you think you've just proven?  How much of a pure ass you are?  Well done, you succeeded.


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 1, 2015)

jc456

Can you read? Dude, LOL, what does it say it says....*.EL NADA is about to go awa*y. That implies, fools gold, that he knew it was there and going away. AIN'T THAT WHAT I SAID? go to the same mirror and flip yourself your middle finger. What an ass.

*No, jc, that is not the statement. "El Nada is about to go away with a vengeance as cooler water is now cycling and cooler water is now cycling and a La Nina is building.......", that is the statement.

Damn, you have to lie when it is right in front of you are everyone else. Post #18 by Billy Bob;

"There is a cooling undercurrent that is about to wipe out any warming that we have seen. The change has already happened in the arctic deep water cold return."

Definate denial of reality by Billy Bob.*


----------



## jc456 (Sep 1, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456
> 
> Can you read? Dude, LOL, what does it say it says....*.EL NADA is about to go awa*y. That implies, fools gold, that he knew it was there and going away. AIN'T THAT WHAT I SAID? go to the same mirror and flip yourself your middle finger. What an ass.
> 
> ...


yeah..... and?  Does that state it didn't exist?  Really, are you that incoherent? by the way...'go away'.. suggests something present.  Again nothing off from what I stated.  cuckoo.


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 1, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > jc456 said:
> ...


jc, were you not such an ignorant sucker, you would know that El Nino's normally bring drier and warmer weather to the Pacific Northwest. And that this years record El Nino has brought record heat and drought to the Pacific Northwest.


----------



## jc456 (Sep 1, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...


and you haven't given one piece...one iota of evidence that a fire in a forest is due to drought.  None, nadda, zip, zero.  So what is your point about?  ain't el nino it's fire and you got nothing.


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 1, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > jc456
> ...


Yes, Billy Bob's statement, made in May, says that the El Nino was weak and going to go away quickly. A false blip in the ocean, so to speak. All the scientists said otherwise, guess who was right. But keep right on lying is such an obvious fashion. It lends the right kind of credibility to everything you post.


----------



## jc456 (Sep 1, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...


dude, what is it I'm lying about?  what statement of mine is a lie from what you just posted?  quote it for me!  come now asswhipe let's see this evidence.


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 1, 2015)

So here we are, another denialist stating that record drought and heat do nothing to increase the intensity of fires. Such a lovely universe you live in, jc.


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 1, 2015)

dorsai


----------



## jc456 (Sep 1, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> So here we are, another denialist stating that record drought and heat do nothing to increase the intensity of fires. Such a lovely universe you live in, jc.


And here we are with a warmer trying to blame a fire on drought.  So, what you're saying is that it got so hot that the brush just caught fire is that it?  holy crap, that's some knee slapping stuff there jack.


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 1, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> dorsai


repeat


----------



## jc456 (Sep 1, 2015)

so Matt, what is it you're agreeing to on old rocks post?  Come now s0n what does 'go away' imply?  Do you know?


----------



## jc456 (Sep 1, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > dorsai
> ...


And here we are with a warmer trying to blame a fire on drought. So, what you're saying is that it got so hot that the brush just caught fire is that it? holy crap, that's some knee slapping stuff there jack.


----------



## Crick (Sep 1, 2015)

Current El Nino climate event 'among the strongest' - BBC News

The ongoing el Nino may be among the strongest on record.  Billy?


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 1, 2015)

And still getting stronger.


----------



## jc456 (Sep 1, 2015)

Crick said:


> Current El Nino climate event 'among the strongest' - BBC News
> 
> The ongoing el Nino may be among the strongest on record.  Billy?


The BBC


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 1, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > Current El Nino climate event 'among the strongest' - BBC News
> ...


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The latest weekly SST 
departures are:
Niño 4 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 2.2ºC
Niño 3 2.3ºC
Niño 1+2 2.0ºC

*Agrees with NOAA.*


----------



## jc456 (Sep 2, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Crick said:
> ...


hmmm seems it is the NOAA.  Read the link. so it agrees with itself.  funny stuff s0n.


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 2, 2015)

Then why did you post BBC? Or are you now going to lie about posts only 2 back? Like you attempted to lie about the fact that Mr. Billy Bob was stating there was no El Nino until it became impossible to ignore a 2+ El Nino.


----------



## jc456 (Sep 3, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Then why did you post BBC? Or are you now going to lie about posts only 2 back? Like you attempted to lie about the fact that Mr. Billy Bob was stating there was no El Nino until it became impossible to ignore a 2+ El Nino.


because you posted the BBC, hence why I wrote BBC.


----------



## Crick (Sep 3, 2015)

I posted the link to the BBC article.  The BBC doesn't do climate research.  Of course they had a source.  And being the BBC, it was a reliable one.  You?  Not so much.


----------



## jc456 (Sep 3, 2015)

Crick said:


> I posted the link to the BBC article.  The BBC doesn't do climate research.  Of course they had a source.  And being the BBC, it was a reliable one.  You?  Not so much.


right, how are they any different than me?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 3, 2015)

I see some Stating that this is the highest EVA" 

Let me see.. Satellites only started to capture this in 1979.  SO your EVA" is since 1979... so fucking what? The length of the record is to small to make any assumptions by real scientists. Then those same satellites say your warming is a huge pile of manufactured crap and somehow, magically those same devices have meaning only when it supports the left wing power grab agenda but again doesn't when they show it a lie and fraud...

You fucking CAGW hypocrite morons...


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 3, 2015)

LOL. Now Billy Bob, is that an El Nino, or not? LOL!


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 3, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> LOL. Now Billy Bob, is that an El Nino, or not? LOL!



Your the ones Stating that the satellites are inaccurate for temperatures..  SO tell me... Are those satellites showing us a real El Nino or are they showing us unreliable data that is wrong?....

Come on Old Fraud.... which is it?  You cant have it both ways..

Either the satellites are accurate and there has been no warming for 18 years 7 months or they are inaccurate and the El Ninon is  made up due to unreliable data...  Come on Old fraud pick your poison..


----------



## ScienceRocks (Sep 3, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> LOL. Now Billy Bob, is that an El Nino, or not? LOL!




He should demand his money back if he doesn't understand what a nino is...What a joke.


----------



## Crick (Sep 6, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Either the satellites are accurate and there has been no warming for 18 years 7 months or they are inaccurate and the El Ninon is  made up due to unreliable data...  Come on Old fraud pick your poison..



That would be what you call "A FALSE DICHOTOMY".  Look it up if you don't want to keep looking like a complete fool.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 8, 2015)

Well... Confirmation that it has peaked and is now on the way out...  And the great stop of upward global trend takes a hit as no warming continues...


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 8, 2015)

Crick said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > Either the satellites are accurate and there has been no warming for 18 years 7 months or they are inaccurate and the El Ninon is  made up due to unreliable data...  Come on Old fraud pick your poison..
> ...



YOU and your ilk can not have it both ways there fucktard.  Nice try at deflection but then again you all do fail frequently.


----------



## Crick (Sep 9, 2015)

That wasn't deflection.  It was an accurate description of your failed attempt to put up a false and worthless defense.  We are not faced with a choice between satellite accuracy or hiatus.  That is a false dichotomy. 

You should have looked it up.

And, BTW, you were wrong about the el Nino.  Every single time.  Do you STILL have some sort of weather-related job or do they not know about your true opinions on things?  BTW, that's a trick question.  See if you can get the trick.


----------



## jc456 (Sep 9, 2015)

Crick said:


> That wasn't deflection.  It was an accurate description of your failed attempt to put up a false and worthless defense.  We are not faced with a choice between satellite accuracy or hiatus.  That is a false dichotomy.
> 
> You should have looked it up.
> 
> And, BTW, you were wrong about the el Nino.  Every single time.  Do you STILL have some sort of weather-related job or do they not know about your true opinions on things?  BTW, that's a trick question.  See if you can get the trick.


why, need a reference?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 9, 2015)

Crick said:


> That wasn't deflection.  It was an accurate description of your failed attempt to put up a false and worthless defense.  We are not faced with a choice between satellite accuracy or hiatus.  That is a false dichotomy.
> 
> You should have looked it up.
> 
> And, BTW, you were wrong about the el Nino.  Every single time.  Do you STILL have some sort of weather-related job or do they not know about your true opinions on things?  BTW, that's a trick question.  See if you can get the trick.



Awe.... Poor little libtrad is all wee wee'd up... I am secure in my job as many of them share the same sentiments about made up shit from NOAA and NASA.   Funny thing is were right, it is all made up.

Funny thing about it all, the earth itself is about to show you fools frauds in a major way..  And there wont be any running from it..


----------



## Crick (Sep 9, 2015)

About to?  When?

I note you didn't say they agree with you about the el Nino.  I also note you failed to note the nature of the trick in the trick question.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 9, 2015)

*New studies promote Arctic cooling fears*



> Northern deep freeze studies seem to be fashionable lately, even Michael Mann had a go earlier this year.
> 
> Perhaps giant blocks of ice washing up on American beaches is proving difficult to reconcile with the end of snow narrative. Having said that, there has always been a low profile nod towards the possibility of abrupt cooling, which is of course still all our fault. This apparent effort to keep all the options open is beautifully captured by one of my favourite climategate emails.



Got to love the alarmists that are now hedging their bets...  Even Michael Mann is doing it...


----------



## Crick (Sep 10, 2015)

How is it that Anthony Watts (and by extension, you) can be sufficiently ignorant on this topic to believe that the AMOC and the Gulfstream are one and the same?

Headline from your WUWT link:

*Michael Mann and Stefan Rahmstorf claim the Gulf Stream is slowing due to Greenland ice melt, except reality says otherwise*

Abstract of Mann & Rahmstorf paper from the same WUWT article:

*Abstract*

Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (_p_ > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 10, 2015)

Crick said:


> How is it that Anthony Watts (and by extension, you) can be sufficiently ignorant on this topic to believe that the AMOC and the Gulfstream are one and the same?
> 
> Headline from your WUWT link:
> 
> ...



And this paper was shown to be.......  Wait for it.............











A LIE....


Damn those pesky little facts...

Rossby: Gulf Stream is Not Slowing - Graduate School of Oceanography



> Several recent studies have generated a great deal of publicity for their claims that the warming climate is slowing the pace of the Gulf Stream. *They say that the Gulf Stream is decreasing in strength as a result of rising sea levels along the East Coast.* *However, none of the studies includes any direct measurements of the current over an extended period to prove their point.*
> 
> But this is exactly what has been underway at the University of Rhode Island and Stony Brook University for the last 20 years: measurement of the strength of the Gulf Stream. And according to a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters (subscription required), the researchers find no evidence that the Gulf Stream is slowing down. These new results reinforce earlier findings about the stability of Gulf Stream transport based on observations from as far back as the 1930s.
> 
> H. Thomas Rossby, a professor at the URI Graduate School of Oceanography, has spent much of his long career studying ocean circulation – especially the Gulf Stream – and how it makes its way across the Atlantic towards Europe and as far north as northern Norway. For the last 20 years he and his colleagues have measured the Gulf Stream using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) attached to a ship, the freighter Oleander, which makes weekly trips across the Gulf Stream from New Jersey to Bermuda. The instrument, which measures the velocity of water moving beneath the ship down to more than 600 meters, has collected some 1,000 measurements of the Gulf Stream since it was installed in late 1992.



Old Mikey Mann fraud is caught lying outright, AGAIN!

Crick needs to read the articles in context and then read through the comments..  You might learn a lot about how your trying to mislead people with your crap!


----------



## flacaltenn (Sep 10, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > How is it that Anthony Watts (and by extension, you) can be sufficiently ignorant on this topic to believe that the AMOC and the Gulfstream are one and the same?
> ...



Those 2 dueling arguments show you how little data and understanding we have of the fundamental climate mechanisms. One study uses "coral  proxies" to look for theorized effects of GW and LEAPS to conclusions not in evidence. The other is bolstered ACTUAL WEEKLY measurements of the Gulf Stream to see IF it's changing. 

And that's just one group burning a lot of heavy oil to take that freighter out week after week.. Must be sponsored by Shell Oil eh???


----------



## flacaltenn (Sep 10, 2015)

Was just checking the thread to see if BillyBob was down to wagering his alligator belt on this El Nino thingy.. 

Let me know when to come and pick up what's left of him....


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 10, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> Was just checking the thread to see if BillyBob was down to wagering his alligator belt on this El Nino thingy..
> 
> Let me know when to come and pick up what's left of him....



Nope... no need to wager anything..  region one has been very cold for over two months now.. There is no new heat entering the stream so this will die now.  I also see that they adjusted DOWN the previous months numbers again...  I wonder why they did that?


And by the way....   When mama tells me to haul ass its multiple trips!


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 10, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > Crick said:
> ...




I rather like the direct measurement route... those dam models fail and sitting at a desk will make you fat!  Its to damn easy to fall into fantasy land... just look around we have a whole bunch there already..


----------



## ScienceRocks (Sep 10, 2015)

*Eric Blake* ‏@*EricBlake12*  4h4 hours ago

#*ElNino* is well on its way to being one of the strongest in modern times- Top 3 increasingly likely to me #*climate*


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 11, 2015)

Matthew said:


> *Eric Blake* ‏@*EricBlake12*  4h4 hours ago
> 
> #*ElNino* is well on its way to being one of the strongest in modern times- Top 3 increasingly likely to me #*climate*



A... Nope!   falling apart... Even the blob has lost 1 deg C in the last two weeks..


----------



## Crick (Sep 12, 2015)

Billy, you've been predicting this el Nino would fall apart for months now.  It has only grown stronger.  Where do you get the delusion that you know what the fuck you're talking about?  Reality certainly doesn't support it.

Now, for the opinion of the folks who actually know what they're talking about.  Emphases mine.


*EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION*
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 September 2015

*ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory*



Synopsis: *There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.*

During August, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near or greater than +2.0oC across the eastern half of the tropical Pacific (Fig. 1). SST anomalies increased in the Niño-3.4 and Niño 3-regions, were approximately unchanged in the Niño-4 region, and decreased in the Niño-1+2 region (Fig. 2). Large positive subsurface temperature anomalies persisted in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific during the month (Fig. 3), with the largest departures exceeding 6oC (Fig. 4). The atmosphere remained coupled to the anomalous oceanic warmth, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were again negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). *Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.*

*All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016*, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater; Fig. 6). *The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño*, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the early Northern Hemisphere fall and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday September 17th). El Niño will likely contribute to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and to above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 October 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

I'm not sure, Billy Boy, I've ever met someone with such unassailable expertise at making themselves look a fool.


----------



## jc456 (Sep 12, 2015)

Again I believe you're confused. Billy made no prediction.  He has supplied supporting material and status.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 12, 2015)

Crick said:


> Billy, you've been predicting this el Nino would fall apart for months now.  It has only grown stronger.  Where do you get the delusion that you know what the fuck you're talking about?  Reality certainly doesn't support it.
> 
> Now, for the opinion of the folks who actually know what they're talking about.  Emphases mine.
> 
> ...



Do you ever look around yourself and verify what these fools tell you or are you simply a left wing fool parrot?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 12, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Again I believe you're confused. Billy made no prediction.  He has supplied supporting material and status.



What I find amusing about these folks, there has been no warming except for the equatorial region with this El Nino.


> *In the tropics, warmest August in the satellite temperature record*
> Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.11 C per decade
> August temperatures (preliminary)
> Global composite temp.: +0.28 C (about 0.50 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
> ...



This El Nino is not a global event. It is only affecting a small region of the earth.  Unlike the 1998 El Nino which was a global event.  We are not seeing temperature rise in the northern hemisphere outside of normal cyclical variation.

And the GLOBAL WARMING STOP is now at 18 years 8 months, and growing..

*Global Temperature Report: August 2015*







Even the warming in the tropics is not major..


----------



## Crick (Sep 12, 2015)

Crick said:


> Billy, you've been predicting this el Nino would fall apart for months now.  It has only grown stronger.  Where do you get the delusion that you know what the fuck you're talking about?  Reality certainly doesn't support it.





Crick said:


> Now, for the opinion of the folks who actually know what they're talking about.  Emphases mine.
> 
> 
> *EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
> ...





Crick said:


> Synopsis: *There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.*
> 
> During August, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near or greater than +2.0oC across the eastern half of the tropical Pacific (Fig. 1). SST anomalies increased in the Niño-3.4 and Niño 3-regions, were approximately unchanged in the Niño-4 region, and decreased in the Niño-1+2 region (Fig. 2). Large positive subsurface temperature anomalies persisted in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific during the month (Fig. 3), with the largest departures exceeding 6oC (Fig. 4). The atmosphere remained coupled to the anomalous oceanic warmth, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were again negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). *Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.*





Crick said:


> *All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016*, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater; Fig. 6). *The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño*, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).





Crick said:


> Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the early Northern Hemisphere fall and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday September 17th). El Niño will likely contribute to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and to above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).





Crick said:


> This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 October 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.





Crick said:


> Climate Prediction Center
> National Centers for Environmental Prediction
> NOAA/National Weather Service
> College Park, MD 20740





Crick said:


> I'm not sure, Billy Boy, I've ever met someone with such unassailable expertise at making themselves look a fool.





Billy_Bob said:


> Do you ever look around yourself and verify what these fools tell you or are you simply a left wing fool parrot?




Actually, I think I can safely rely on the rest of the world's meteorologists and climate scientists to do that.  Not so much with you.  No one's listening to your claims except the handful of whack jobs who populate this board.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 13, 2015)

this should send some shockwaves through the alarmist shill community..






Region 3-4 has dropped to +1.61 Deg C Anomaly.  At this rate of decline the El Nino wont be present in just a few short weeks.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 13, 2015)

And Region 1-2 is falling like a rock!


----------



## Crick (Sep 13, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> this should send some shockwaves through the alarmist shill community..
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Can you not read your own graph?


----------



## ScienceRocks (Sep 14, 2015)

* up to 2.3C this week*

With this the reading is the strongest weekly reading for the month of September for 3.4 beating 1997's 2.2C. This after August had its highest.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 24, 2015)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The latest weekly SST 
departures are:
Niño 4 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 2.3ºC
Niño 3 2.7ºC
Niño 1+2 2.6ºC

My goodness, Mr. Billy Bob, whatever happened to your El Molke? Or was that El Monkey?


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 25, 2015)

Wow, Billy Bob, that is some rock you have there. Fell upwards. Region 1-2 went from about 2.2 to 2.6. By golly, you are hitting a perfect -100% on your prognostications.


----------



## Crick (Sep 28, 2015)

Today's map!
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




Funny, Billy hasn't posted on this thread for 24 days.  What could that possibly mean?  Billy?  Billy me lad, are ye out there?

Back to NOAA

*Summary *
El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.*
************************************************************************************************
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ............ 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 ......... 2.3ºC
Niño 3 ............ 2.6ºC
Niño 1+2 ........ 2.7ºC


*"...like a ROCK"  ---Billy Bob*


----------



## jc456 (Sep 28, 2015)

Crick said:


> Today's map!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


that's pretty sad dude, you obviously don't even look at the posts 9/13.  Perhaps you meant 14 days, but 24 huh-uh


----------



## Crick (Sep 28, 2015)

Today's map!
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




Funny, Billy hasn't posted on this thread for 13 days.  What could that possibly mean?  Billy?  Billy me lad, are ye out there?

Back to NOAA

*Summary *
El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.*
************************************************************************************************
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 ............ 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 ......... 2.3ºC
Niño 3 ............ 2.6ºC
Niño 1+2 ........ 2.7ºC


*"...like a ROCK"  ---Billy Bob*


----------



## CrusaderFrank (Sep 28, 2015)

CO2 causes El Nino? Really?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 28, 2015)

Crick said:


> Today's map!
> 
> 
> 
> ...








Yep. Its going to be just like a rock... down is where we go from here.


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 28, 2015)

Well, yes, that is what normally happens with the El Nino-La Nina cycle. However, that is not what you were predicting at the start of this year,and not what you have been saying for months. The El Monkey here is you.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Sep 28, 2015)

El nino is a natural climate cycle and no it isn't caused by co2!  I never said that it was. haha


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 29, 2015)

Billy Bob on 26April15

EL NADA is about to go away with a vengeance as cooler water is now cycling and a La Nina is building...
Were about to have a serious drop in ocean temps.. And Mathew is hoping like hell it will last through may and the Paris convention... At current rate of decline we will go negative mid May.

2May15

Volcanic Heat mistaken for strengthening El Nino.

*Hmmmmmmm......................*


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 29, 2015)

Billy Bob on

16June15

Temps set to rapidly decline... looks like this El Moki is going away...

Heat around Greenland is now gone and the DWCR has risen cooling the ocean currents around the Continental shelf. Atlantic going deep cold, and it appears there is going to be some rapid ice build up this winter in the arctic region in this area.

Heat around Alaska and the oregon coast is now diminishing. With no Westerlies forming, the heat in the Pacific is now waning..Region 3-4 should take a 0.1-0.2 cooling this next week.The region one warm pool is now depleted. Nowhere to go but down from here..

*Hmmmmmmmmmmm........................*


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 29, 2015)

BillyBob on 12July15

Looks like the replenishing waters for the Blob are now decoupled and surface temps are now cooling rapidly... Cold pockets in region 4 and the southern hemisphere are blocking further El Nino development. -0.5 degree water anomaly is now penetrating to the arctic. just like the Atlantic cool is now taking over. Watch for the temperature flip in the next couple of months.

*And this fellow still maintains that he is an authority on meteorology. He is a silly liar that has only politically driven statements, knows zero of science. Really pathetic individual. We have a number of them like him on this board. *


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 29, 2015)

Hey Billy Bob, how long is this El Monkey going to stay at 2.3? How about giving us one of your famous prognostications.


----------



## flacaltenn (Sep 29, 2015)

I predict it stays long enough to give me an excuse for some Spring Skiing at Tahoe..
Love those bikini days in April...


----------



## Crick (Sep 29, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > Today's map!
> ...


Oh... you didn't mean it was dropping like a rock. You meant it's climbing to never-before-seen highs from which it must eventually fall.

My god are you stupid.


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 29, 2015)

Well, I hope you are correct. Hope some of that makes it up to Eastern Oregon.


----------



## flacaltenn (Sep 29, 2015)

Wake me up when some boiling starts. I want to apologize to James Hansen..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Sep 29, 2015)

Crick said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > Crick said:
> ...



You really are a total fool..  

Tell me crick, how do you get your estimations to become accurate out to 100th of a degree?

And as to the El Nino, the regions are all COOLING and no new heat is being introduced because the westerlies are fading..  

But go stick you head in the sand.  Its where you like to be after all.


----------



## Crick (Sep 30, 2015)

Billy, when do you believe this el Nino will end Billy?


----------



## Old Rocks (Sep 30, 2015)

Well, ol' Billy Bob is depending on the fact that eventually this El Nino has to go the other way. Then he will be on here crowing how he was right the whole time. And we will just post his past posts to show what an ass he truly is.


----------



## flacaltenn (Oct 1, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Well, ol' Billy Bob is depending on the fact that eventually this El Nino has to go the other way. Then he will be on here crowing how he was right the whole time. And we will just post his past posts to show what an ass he truly is.



Kinda like you guys just waiting for the "pause" to end -- so you can get a big "told you so" moment eh? 



How long can you stretch THAT prediction out?? Probably WILL end. Wanna start a pool on which way it goes after that?  I'd need like a 20 to 1 payout -- but under those conditions -- I'd short the temperature for at least a couple years. Send me some of that recreational weed you west coast stoners are stashing and I'd take those odds.


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 1, 2015)

Well, I don't use, and, of course, have no stash. And saying that the temperature will go down for a couple of year is hardly a reversal. Pinotubo did that. As for the 'pause', given that you silly asses base that on beginning that period at 1998, rather than the whole record, I hardly see a real 'pause'. And, with the temps in 2015, we are seeing a bump up once more. 

Funny, you fellows like to talk of natural variation explaining everything, but when we bring up the fact that the natural variation will be imprinted on top of the increasing temperatures, you start talking of 'pause' and 'cooling'. 

What is happening is that you have your normal wiggles, but now they are tipped up to the right. So what would have previously been a short downturn, is now a 'pause'.


----------



## longknife (Oct 2, 2015)

*Strong El Niño Persists, And It’s Likely to Continue Into Spring. Here’s Why.*










Read full story @ Latest Update: Strong El Niño Persists, And It's Likely to Continue Into Spring. Here's Why. - ImaGeo


----------



## ScienceRocks (Oct 3, 2015)

Big tick up on the daily 3.4





 This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 768x384.


----------



## Crick (Oct 4, 2015)

Crick said:


> Billy, when do you believe this el Nino will?



Billy BoB?!?!?  WHEN Bill Bob,WHEN?  It's already gone further than you said it'd go.  Where's it going Billy>  Don't you have the master maps?  Tell us what's going to happen and why?


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 4, 2015)

longknife said:


> *Strong El Niño Persists, And It’s Likely to Continue Into Spring. Here’s Why.*
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Shhhhhhh..................   Billy Bob knows that is not so.


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 5, 2015)

Hey Billy Bob, why don't you put all of your weather predictions here. Keep all the nonsense in one thread.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Oct 5, 2015)

*Up to 2.4c at 3.4*
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 5, 2015)

Oh Billy..................................


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 5, 2015)

NOAA has adjusted up its SST by 0.23 deg C this month.  The unisys systems plot shows that the upward adjustment is not justified.  This has the effect of pumping up the El nino when it is infact dying..

I wonder why they are doing this?  COP21 and that it would be inconvenient to show cooling in two months?  

DMI has our current anomaly at just 1.52 deg C which is far below the NOAA reading of 2.13 deg C.  DMI has not adjusted their data...  Looks like the alarmist crowd is getting real desperate.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Oct 6, 2015)

Anyone that can't see the massive honking nino needs to do something else with their life.


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 6, 2015)

Poor ol' Billy Bob is living in the alternative universe of the 'Conservatives' where all the orange and red is blue. Billy started that nonsense about the El Nino dying in April. And all it has done since then is get stronger. In the meantime, Billy Bob continually posts nonsense about how NASA and NOAA are altering the data. And the West continues to be hotter than ever recorded before, and the East Coast continues to get thousand year rain storms. Billy Bob is really a silly little ass.


----------



## jc456 (Oct 6, 2015)

Matthew said:


> Big tick up on the daily 3.4
> 
> 
> 
> ...


sorry, but I'm looking at this graph and hmmmmmm, seems that in October there was a swing up and back down. Prior to that, is sort of what ole Billy stated eh?

i dunno, but perhaps you should learn to read the graph correctly.  The majority of the line in this index is_* below *_+2.0.


----------



## longknife (Oct 7, 2015)

Not a lot in the news about this but the rainstorm that just dumped records amounts on Las Vegas came from the NORTH, not the south as is common.


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 7, 2015)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The latest weekly SST departures are: 
Niño 4 1.1ºC 
Niño 3.4 2.4ºC 
Niño 3 2.8ºC 
Niño 1+2 2.8ºC

*2.4. That is a very strong El Nino. And it just keeps hanging on. Oh Billeeeee......................*


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 7, 2015)

longknife said:


> Not a lot in the news about this but the rainstorm that just dumped records amounts on Las Vegas came from the NORTH, not the south as is common.


And yesterday the temperature hit 87 degrees. In October. In Portland, Oregon. More normal today, 60's and rain. We need a lot more rain.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 9, 2015)

The mighty Blob is breaking up. It has now split in two and overall temp has dropped -0.75 deg C. The cold waters from the Antarctic have now reached region 4 and the coast of Russia.  There are massive ares of deep cooling in the bearing straights and off the coast of Alaska. (Some areas have dropped -3.0 deg C below norm - A 5 deg C swing)

As the cooling now is the dominant theme, the El Nino wont last long. Region one-two is below +1.2 and falling, Region 3-4 is now dropping as the Cooling from region four is taking the same path, with westerlies, as the warm water once did and it is now -2.0 

With all the major swings in ocean temps the El Nino will give way to a deep La Nina condition this next year.

With the pause unaffected by the current El Nino even if they get one or two months above average it will be all washed away when the La Nina takes hold and the pause lengthens considerably.


----------



## Crick (Oct 9, 2015)

*EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION*
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 October 2015

*ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory*



Synopsis: There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016*.*

During September, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were well above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Niño indices generally increased, although the far western Niño-4 index was nearly unchanged (Fig. 2). Also, relative to last month, the strength of the positive subsurface temperature anomalies decreased slightly in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 3), but the largest departures remained above 6oC (Fig. 4). The atmosphere was well coupled with the ocean, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to the east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values became more negative (stronger), consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.

*All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter *(Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus* unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC*. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the United States, temperature and precipitation impacts from El Niño are likely to be seen during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday October 15th). Outlooks generally favor below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 November 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740
***************************************************************************
So, quite obviously, you don't know what the fuck you are talking about.


----------



## longknife (Oct 10, 2015)

I love it! Every time Billy_Bob puts up one of his ridiculous posts, someone else refutes it with better info.

Keep it up!


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 10, 2015)

NASA expert: El Niño is 'too big to fail'

LOS ANGELES – Climatologists are predicting that this winter will be unusual across the country because of El Niño that is brewing in the Pacific Ocean.



"There's no longer a possibility that El Niño wimps out at this point. It's too big to fail," Bill Patzert, a climatologist for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told the LA Times. "And the winter over North America is definitely not going to be normal."

Scientists say El Niño is getting stronger because of rising sea-level ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and a change of directions of the wind along the equator.

According to LA Times, that means that winter storms that normally drop rain in central America could shift north and move them over California and the southern United States.

Mike Halpert, the deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, said this El Niño is the second strongest he's seen at this time of the year.

"This could be one of the types of winters like in 1997-98," Halpert said.

*Now we know Billy's predictions, let us see how they compare to the scientists. Thus far, it is 100% scientists, 0 % Billy.*


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 11, 2015)

longknife said:


> I love it! Every time Billy_Bob puts up one of his ridiculous posts, someone else refutes it with better info.
> 
> Keep it up!


Presenting facts rather than opinions is a problem with consensus "science"  you rely on MODELS and not empirical evidence.. I post up current empirical evidence and crick posts up broken models..

The crowd of uninformed morons grows..

Not unexpected however,  useful idiot's abound...


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 11, 2015)

So what has happened to their dire predictions of unprecedented warming?  It hasn't happened.  Why?

What has happened to their dire predictions of heavy wet rain in southern Cali and Arizona?  its hasn't happened..  Why? 

Most of the mid west and the bread basket of the US is BELOW AVERAGE temperatures.. WHY?

Everything that happened in  1998 has not happened with the current El Nino...  WHY?

The models predictions have been so wrong that not one of the consensus scientists can tell us why were not seeing the normal, empirically observed, reaction to an El Nino..  WHY?  

Empirical observations leave huge questions about the true nature and strength of our current El Nino.  I just have the guts to ask the right questions and say something about it. Funny how the real unaltered data does not conform to the modeled "expectation" or should I say "assumption".


----------



## Crick (Oct 12, 2015)

You REPEATEDLY predicted that this el Nino would never take place.  It took place.  On a WEEKLY basis, you've predicted its imminent demise.  It's still going  strong and has behaved precisely as the actual experts predicted it would.  The only thing this thread has shown is that the real el Nino experts have a pretty good handle on how the things work and that you have ab-so-fucking-lutely NONE.


----------



## jc456 (Oct 13, 2015)

Crick said:


> You REPEATEDLY predicted that this el Nino would never take place.  It took place.  On a WEEKLY basis, you've predicted its imminent demise.  It's still going  strong and has behaved precisely as the actual experts predicted it would.  The only thing this thread has shown is that the real el Nino experts have a pretty good handle on how the things work and that you have ab-so-fucking-lutely NONE.


besides pretty graphs, where in North America has there been any sign of an El Nino?  I've been waiting and to date, nadda here.


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 13, 2015)

Then you have been blind. The floods in Texas and the Carolina's are typical of the weather that one expects from an El Nino. The breakup of Atlantic hurricanes is also normal for an El Nino year. And a dryer than normal, in this case, extreme drought for the Pacific Northwest is another expected effect of the El Nino. 

You and Billy Bob have to be the dumbest people on this board.


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 13, 2015)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The latest weekly SST departures are: 
Niño 4 1.0ºC 
Niño 3.4 2.4ºC 
Niño 3 2.8ºC
Niño 1+2 2.7ºC

*Oh Billeeeeeee............ time to drop the pants again.*


----------



## jc456 (Oct 13, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Then you have been blind. The floods in Texas and the Carolina's are typical of the weather that one expects from an El Nino. The breakup of Atlantic hurricanes is also normal for an El Nino year. And a dryer than normal, in this case, extreme drought for the Pacific Northwest is another expected effect of the El Nino.
> 
> You and Billy Bob have to be the dumbest people on this board.


oh my gawd, really?  LOLOL El Nino didn't have anything to do with either events.  hahhahhahahahaahhaahhahahaha, wow dude talk about taking a leap!  Why isn't the west coast being affected, isn't that the real prediction, rain relief for California and the northwest.  Where is it bubba?


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 13, 2015)

*ENSO Temperature & Precipitation Composites*
El Niño
Temperature El Niño
Precipitation El Niño
Snow La Niña
Temperature La Niña
Precipitation La Niña
Snow Information on Data, Methods, and Interpretation
3-Month Period
JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

DJF






Climate Prediction Center - ENSO Temperature and Precipitation Composites

*Oh JCeeee...............*


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 13, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Then you have been blind. The floods in Texas and the Carolina's are typical of the weather that one expects from an El Nino. The breakup of Atlantic hurricanes is also normal for an El Nino year. And a dryer than normal, in this case, extreme drought for the Pacific Northwest is another expected effect of the El Nino.
> ...


Dumb fuck, as I pointed out, it already has been affected. And the rain may be a bit late, but it will come. Unfortunately, most likely in copious amounts.


----------



## jc456 (Oct 13, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
> 
> The latest weekly SST departures are:
> Niño 4 1.0ºC
> ...


Sorry, but I just have to laugh at this stuff.  You are sacrificing anything to be right?  I looked at your link, this year is no where near 1998.  NOT NEAR on page 21 of the presentation material.  Fact remains nothing has happened in North America to suggest El Nino.  your previous bull about Texas and Carolina is hysterical to say the least.

We'll see bubba who will be right, I have quite a bit of confidence La Nina is here again in NA.


----------



## jc456 (Oct 13, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...


PREDICTIONS are not FACTs of anything bubba.  And again, nothing you pointed out earlier had anything to do with any el nino.  nothing and you have no evidence to support it.


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 13, 2015)

Poor ol' jc, still out of touch reality. Here is a picture of the 1997-1998 El Nino compared to the present El Nino.
Evidence mounts for El Nino that could ease Calif. drought


----------



## jc456 (Oct 13, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Poor ol' jc, still out of touch reality. Here is a picture of the 1997-1998 El Nino compared to the present El Nino.
> Evidence mounts for El Nino that could ease Calif. drought


why don't you address the page I posted off the link you provided?  Why is it below 1998?

dude, can you ever post something that doesn't use words like could, would or predict or confidence?  How about a factual piece of material that has evidence?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 15, 2015)

Oct 15th and the Cold Arctic circulations have now flipped ... Most of the US land temps are now way below normal..

This could make the pause continues without a pause...


----------



## jc456 (Oct 15, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Oct 15th and the Cold Arctic circulations have now flipped ... Most of the US land temps are now way below normal..
> 
> This could make the pause continues without a pause...


going down to daytime highs at around 50 degrees here in Chicago land. eleven degrees below normal. Dude, it's been this way all summer and now into the fall.  El nino my butt.


----------



## longknife (Oct 17, 2015)

*NYTimes on “Strong el Niño”*










And some much needed rain to southern California @ Strong El Niño to Bring Warm Winter to Much of U.S.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 17, 2015)

longknife said:


> *NYTimes on “Strong el Niño”*
> 
> 
> 
> ...



LOL... 

I know the lead forecaster... He is currently floored that the midwest has cooled this week well below norm which is 100% opposite his forecast..  Lets just say I wont be following his lead....

Love his gloom and doom predictions.  Going to be great fodder when the temps are well below norm and snow levels well above. Good little alarmist propagandizing like he is told..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 17, 2015)

Region three is cooling...  region Four is cooling rapidly... region 3-4 is flat and should also follow suit this week or next..






looks to me like the beloved El Nino is on its way out..


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 17, 2015)

Promises, promises, promises. That is all we ever get from you, silly Billy Bob. Of course, the El Nino will eventually end, the silly Billy will say " I told you so".


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 18, 2015)

And as predicted.. FLAT but negative trend has begun...





Australia BOM is now predicting an across the board drop in ocean temps for the foreseeable future.. A rather pronounced one, dropping well below El Nino thresholds by mid December, which is at odds with NOAA's predictions that say it will go through mid spring..  

Who to beleive?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 18, 2015)

I now know why they changed their predictions..






There has been a 0.6 deg C flip from negative (warm) to positive (cool) flow indicating cooling of the region is pronounced. And this has happened in the last two weeks..

The forecast discussions are interesting noting many of the problems I have seen for the last two months..  With Paris on the horizon NOAA wont change their predictions until well passed the conclave unless the cooling gets so pronounced they cant ignore it.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 18, 2015)

The Blob is cooling rapidly. Its lost another 0.97 deg C this week and is now three small areas which are cooling due to circulation changes. The flip is clear.  No mistaking it now!


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 18, 2015)

Even NOAA's graphing shows the rapid cool down...






The Blob has broken into three parts this week and dropped almost a full degree C.. Wow NOAA's graphs show the cooling very pronounced.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 18, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Promises, promises, promises. That is all we ever get from you, silly Billy Bob. Of course, the El Nino will eventually end, the silly Billy will say " I told you so".



It's been happening for weeks.  There is no mistaking it now. Better late than never, admitting defeat there Old Crock..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 18, 2015)

Three month animation showing cooling..


----------



## Crick (Oct 18, 2015)

Could that have anything to do with the northern hemisphere moving into winter?

Boy, that'll be a surprise for them folks at NOAA.

I gotta be honest here Billy.  I don't see a lot of cooling in that graphic.


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 18, 2015)

Now silly Billy, do you want me to post your predictions from the beginning of this year? I would really be embarrassed to have been totally wrong that many times in a row.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 19, 2015)

Awwwwwweee    Poor little old fraud cant explain why 1/2 of the country is 20 deg F below normal... And the west is now at normal despite the El nino...  The pause will continue and cooling is all that is left...


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 19, 2015)

Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 October 2015

The latest weekly SST departures are: 

Niño 4 1.1ºC

 Niño3.4 2.4ºC

 Niño 3 2.6ºC 

Niño 1+2 2.5ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

*Oh Billy........................    Still 2.4, that is a very strong El Nino.*


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 21, 2015)

My word, but we are seeing a lot of coverage of this El Nino in the media now.


----------



## Crick (Oct 21, 2015)

Billy, is the el Nino over yet?


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 22, 2015)

1. The South Will Be Cooler Than Average, The North Warmer





2. The South Will Be Wetter Than Average






Winter 2015-2016 outlook: 5 things to expect

*Well, there are the expected effects of the El Nino.*


----------



## Crick (Oct 24, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Awwwwwweee    Poor little old fraud cant explain why 1/2 of the country is 20 deg F below normal... And the west is now at normal despite the El nino...  The pause will continue and cooling is all that is left...



Why do you think that's the case?  Do you believe there is no el Nino?  Do you believe it will end any minute now?  Do you believe it's a small and weak el Nino?  How many different ways can you differ from the actual experts and make yourself look more and more and more the fool Billy?  Someone with even a basic intelligence usually knows when to quit.


----------



## skookerasbil (Oct 24, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> 1. The South Will Be Cooler Than Average, The North Warmer
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Hmmm........but all you AGW guys promised colors of red and dark red..........two decades ago........... EVERYWHERE!!!

We 'aint seeing it!!!


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 24, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 October 2015
> 
> The latest weekly SST departures are:
> 
> ...








And yet the foremost researchers on El Nino in Australia say ...Nope!    The Dutch Meteorological Office say's .. Nope...   Among many others  while it is only the US and France who are touting the Alarmist drone cry's of the sky is falling...  It seems the only countries pushing the crap are the ones who want wealth redistribution via the socialist class..


----------



## skookerasbil (Oct 24, 2015)

Billy.........at the rate these goofball incrementalists ( they've redefined the term ) are going, in 1,000 years, they'll be discussing the same canned shit as today!!


----------



## Crick (Oct 24, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 October 2015
> ...



and who's been right so far Billy Boy?  Certainly not you.


----------



## Crick (Oct 24, 2015)

skookerasbil said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > 1. The South Will Be Cooler Than Average, The North Warmer
> ...



Promised you red and dark red?  I wouldn't have thought it possible, but you've become more ignorant than you were six months ago when I put you on ignore.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 25, 2015)

Region one in free fall..





Region 2 now in decline;






Region 3-4 has no change this week;





While the individual regions are both falling;










Not sure where the NOAA boys are getting their doom and gloom from as the Pacific Blob is being torn apart by shifting water circulation...


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 25, 2015)

Crick said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...



Funny, You have produced nothing but model conjecture prepared by someone else and I post empirical observed evidence...  So your fantasy models some how are better (and more relevant) than empirical evidence and scientific OBSERVATIONS..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 25, 2015)

The Blob has four parts today and I expect one of the parts to be nonexistent within a week off the Washington-Alaska region. With the main two sections being pulled apart off California's coast to be impacted by cold water over the week resulting in significant temperature reductions as well.

As you can see from the ABOM observations, the cold water intrusion is massive and cold. A shift of 4-6 deg C.


----------



## flacaltenn (Oct 25, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 October 2015
> ...




Whoaaaaa there. El Nino is now part of the socialist redistribution plan? What's next? The NOAA weather alerts to your tornado alarm are gonna have political ads??


----------



## flacaltenn (Oct 25, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> View attachment 53302
> 
> The Blob has four parts today and I expect one of the parts to be nonexistent within a week off the Washington-Alaska region. With the main two sections being pulled apart off California's coast to be impacted by cold water over the week resulting in significant temperature reductions as well.
> 
> As you can see from the ABOM observations, the cold water intrusion is massive and cold. A shift of 4-6 deg C.



Blob anatomy.. A little fuzzy on that, but I think I dissected one in Pre-Med Anatomy.. Rather than pulling it apart -- a simple garlic flourish might cause it to dissipate..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 25, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...



My point was simply that other agencies are not coming to the same conclusion as NOAA. Whether or not they are part of the CAGW scam is another point of contention. Many on here point to the El Nino as being man made/caused despite the fact there is empirical evidence to the contrary.

Hyper vigilance and endless warnings make people numb so that when there are real emergencies which requires prompt decisive action, they do not act or are slow to act. I would dare to say that most of the current hyperbole is a political add to support the scam at this point.

That has very negative results with the general populace when real action is required. Using this type of alarmism to forward a political agenda at the detrimental cost of the people they are supposed to be serving, is beyond reprehensible to me..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Oct 25, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > View attachment 53302
> ...



Funny thing about that "blob" its been fuzzy since they first coined the term. The area of anomaly is now being impacted by changing ocean circulations. I think the cold water circulations returning to the west coast will take care of the "blob" fairly quickly.


----------



## jc456 (Oct 26, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Promises, promises, promises. That is all we ever get from you, silly Billy Bob. Of course, the El Nino will eventually end, the silly Billy will say " I told you so".


*"Promises, promises, promises. That is all we ever get from you, silly Billy Bob. Of course, the El Nino will eventually end, the silly Billy will say " I told you so"*
so what is it you have?  Any observed data that  you can show yet?  Hmmmmmmmm?

Predict, predict, predict, what is the difference?


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 26, 2015)

The latest weekly SST departures are: 
Niño 4 1.3ºC
Niño 3.4 2.5ºC 
Niño 3 2.6ºC 
Niño 1+2 2.2ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

*Oh Billy, loosen the belt and drop the pants again. Region up 3.4 up another notch again.
Looks like the Very Strong El Nino is going to continue to gain strength for a while longer. jc, you are getting as silly as Billy. Starting early this year, the people that study weather and climate were predicting a strong to very strong El Nino. And silly Billy was stating that they did not know what they were talking about. 

Now here we are, in a Very Strong El Nino. And silly Billy is still daily calling for a weakening of that El Nino. For sure, eventually he will be right. But a broken clock is correct twice a day.*


----------



## IanC (Oct 27, 2015)

This super El Nino seems to have a lot in common with the recent strongest hurricane evah. Lots of publicity but strangely little in the way of predicted consequences.


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## Billy_Bob (Oct 27, 2015)

IanC said:


> This super El Nino seems to have a lot in common with the recent strongest hurricane evah. Lots of publicity but strangely little in the way of predicted consequences.



Funny how that works.  The empirical evidence does not reflect the hype?   The damages caused by both reflect a much smaller influence than the hype and predilections have predicted. Indicating that we either do not understand the mechanisms or someone is lying... It is probably some of both IMHO.


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## Old Rocks (Oct 27, 2015)

LOL. Now why don't you tell the people in Texas and the Carolina's about that?


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## Crick (Oct 29, 2015)

Billy_Bob said:


> IanC said:
> 
> 
> > This super El Nino seems to have a lot in common with the recent strongest hurricane evah. Lots of publicity but strangely little in the way of predicted consequences.
> ...




A weather system goes from a tropical storm to a Category FIVE hurricane in 24 hours, just as it passes over the core of the el Nino hot water.  And you think this is a non-event and that the two are unrelated?  Your idiocy goes beyond all comprehension.


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## IanC (Oct 29, 2015)

Galveston cat 5  (edit- oops cat4, 4000-8000 dead)






strongest hurricane evahhhhhhhh. Patricia cat 5  (edit- 2 dead campers crushed by a tree, 4 dead in a highway accident before the actual landfall)


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## jc456 (Oct 29, 2015)

cat 5 wind was only 15 miles wide.


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## Old Rocks (Oct 29, 2015)

Silly asses. The storm hit the perfect place, and there were few people there, and mountains to break it up. Mexico definately  dodged the bullet on that one. However, that does not change the fact that it was a major storm, and gained strength very rapidly. Denial of the uniqueness of that storm is like your continued denial of the present very strong El Nino. Just makes you fellows look like regular fools.


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## jc456 (Oct 29, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Silly asses. The storm hit the perfect place, and there were few people there, and mountains to break it up. Mexico definately  dodged the bullet on that one. However, that does not change the fact that it was a major storm, and gained strength very rapidly. Denial of the uniqueness of that storm is like your continued denial of the present very strong El Nino. Just makes you fellows look like regular fools.


and?  We keep asking why that storm is any different than any other over the last 100 years?


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 29, 2015)

Which, of course, continues to demonstrate how truly ignorant that you are.


----------



## jc456 (Oct 29, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Which, of course, continues to demonstrate how truly ignorant that you are.


nice skate.  Can't address the topic so insult away.  Yep typical stuff right there.

So still looking for why that storm was different?


----------



## Old Rocks (Oct 29, 2015)

Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record

In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds, Hurricane Patricia broke the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory Oct. 23, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma in the Atlantic Basin almost exactly 10 years earlier. Around 1 p.m. CDT Oct. 23, the minimum central pressure reached its lowest point, 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter airborne reconnaissance mission late on the night of Oct. 22 provided critical data demonstrating the extreme intensification of Hurricane Patricia in near-real time. A new NOAA reconnaissance aircraft reached the eye of Patricia early on the afternoon of Oct. 23 to gather additional direct measurements of the storm's intensity.

*Unprecedented Among Pacific Hurricanes*
Hurricane Patricia became the strongest Pacific hurricane on record shortly after midnight CDT early on Oct. 23. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flown through the eye of Patricia and reported a sea-level pressure of 894 millibars as measured by a dropsonde inside the eye itself. Wind measurements suggested that the pressure measurement was not in the exact center of the eye and was probably not the absolute lowest pressure, prompting NHC to estimate the minimum central pressure at 892 millibars in its special 12:30 a.m. CDT advisory.

Tropical cyclone strength comparisons are typically based on minimum central pressure. At 892 millibars, Patricia shattered the Eastern Pacific basin's previous record of 902 millibars set by Hurricane Linda in 1997.

While a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific have been stronger, Patricia is now by far the strongest hurricane on record in any basin where the term "hurricane" applies to tropical cyclones – namely, the central and eastern North Pacific basins and the North Atlantic basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean itself plus the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

*So there you have it, flap yap at the people that measure these things.*


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## ScienceRocks (Oct 29, 2015)

IanC said:


> Galveston cat 5  (edit- oops cat4, 4000-8000 dead)
> 
> 
> 
> ...




That's the difference between hitting a large city and a few coastal villages. lol...know the difference and join reality.


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## westwall (Oct 29, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Silly asses. The storm hit the perfect place, and there were few people there, and mountains to break it up. Mexico definately  dodged the bullet on that one. However, that does not change the fact that it was a major storm, and gained strength very rapidly. Denial of the uniqueness of that storm is like your continued denial of the present very strong El Nino. Just makes you fellows look like regular fools.









Yep.  Only a few million in that area.  Nothing to worry about!  Truly olfraud, you are an idiot.  What's even more interesting is the fact that the Cat 5 hurricane that struck the same area in 1959 killed over 1500 people......

"Only one Category 5 hurricane had ever previously been known to make landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast. That hurricane followed a path similar to that of Hurricane Patricia and struck near Puerto Vallarta in late October 1959, causing some 1,800 deaths."

Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record

So, not unique, and certainly, thankfully, nowhere near the most dangerous.


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## Old Rocks (Oct 29, 2015)

*Mr. Westwall, similiar is not the same. And an area with only a few small villages is vastly differant than the area near Puerta Vallarta. And eye of the storm hit high mountains, which broke the symmetry of the storm. A very lucky break for Mexico.*

How Mexico escaped the worst of Hurricane Patricia

Days after Hurricane Patricia made landfall on Mexico's western coast, much of the destruction was limited to flooding and wind damage to homes, as well as power outages and small mudslides.

Patricia grew at "an incredible rate" over a 12-hour span from Thursday night to early Friday, according to the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization. By Friday morning, the storm's power was comparable to that of Typhoon Haiyan, which displaced millions of people and left more than 7,300 dead or missing in the Philippines in 2013.

See the most-read stories this hour >>

As of Monday afternoon, the official death toll in this disaster is zero. So how did the country survive the strongest hurricane ever measured in the Western Hemisphere?

*Mexico learned from past disasters*
Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto attributed the outcome to government planning and experience with previous natural disasters.

"Each of these episodes that we've experienced has allowed us each time to improve our system of civil protection," he told reporters.

Among the most recent disasters were Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid, which struck Mexico almost simultaneously in 2013. Manuel came in hard from the south onto the coast of Guerrero state, slamming Acapulco. The next day, Ingrid pummeled the state of Tamaulipas on Mexico's eastern coast. At least 120 people died as a result of Manuel, many of them in Acapulco's poor neighborhoods, which suffered intense flooding.

The government came under heavy criticism after the storm, accused of not providing adequate warning or a decent evacuation to residents of Guerrero state. The state governor at the time, Angel Aguirre, was reported to be out partying rather than mustering the evacuation of residents in high-risk zones.

"The hurricane put to the test the reaction of all three levels of government," Ricardo Aleman wrote in his Sunday column in the newspaper El Universal. "And unlike many other occasions, the coordination [this time around] was almost perfect."


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## depotoo (Oct 29, 2015)

Actually, no.  It was the strongest recorded by recon in the eastern north pacific.  And they have only been flying storms that will affect land (most in this area go out to sea) for a few decades.  Many storms the NHC has estimated by satellite, dvorak, windsat, etc. have been found to be either more organized or less organized when recon has flown in to them.  Recon just happened to be there at the right time to be able to record her peak.  Shortly thereafter she began to unravel and hit Mexico as a weaker storm than was predicted.  I believe her damage  showed that of a cat 3 storm  in a very,  very small area.   





Old Rocks said:


> Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record
> 
> In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds, Hurricane Patricia broke the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory Oct. 23, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma in the Atlantic Basin almost exactly 10 years earlier. Around 1 p.m. CDT Oct. 23, the minimum central pressure reached its lowest point, 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).
> 
> ...


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## IanC (Oct 30, 2015)

Matthew said:


> IanC said:
> 
> 
> > Galveston cat 5  (edit- oops cat4, 4000-8000 dead)
> ...



there is a particular reason why I posted this picture. it's right on the beach, and an open enclosure with a thatched roof is not only standing but seemingly undamaged. I have seen other pics that show shacks with corrugated roofs, also intact.

*ategory 5[edit]*
*Category 5
Sustained winds* *Example*
≥ 70 m/s
≥ 137 kn
≥ 252 km/h
≥ 157 mph 


Patricia near peak intensity
See also: List of Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes and List of Category 5 Pacific hurricanes
_*Catastrophic damage will occur*_

Category 5 is the highest category a tropical cyclone can attain in the Saffir–Simpson scale. These storms cause complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings, and some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Collapse of many wide-span roofs and walls, especially those with no interior supports, is common. Very heavy and irreparable damage to many wood frame structures and total destruction to mobile/manufactured homes is prevalent. Only a few types of structures are capable of surviving intact, and only if located at least 3 to 5 miles (5 to 8 km) inland.



Im not accusing anyone of lying but it does seem odd that the damage caused by Patricia was totally underwhelming compared to what was expected. by the strongest hurricane evahhhhhhhhh.


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## Old Rocks (Oct 30, 2015)

Right on the beach where? Where the storm came ashore? Are you saying that the people that were measuring this storm were all lying? Is so, for what reason?


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## flacaltenn (Oct 30, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record
> 
> In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds, Hurricane Patricia broke the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory Oct. 23, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma in the Atlantic Basin almost exactly 10 years earlier. Around 1 p.m. CDT Oct. 23, the minimum central pressure reached its lowest point, 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).
> 
> ...



Likely the monster El Nino DID intensify the storm.. So what? What fraction of that was due to 0.5degC GWarming in your lifetime? And for how long have we been sending AGGRESSIVE P3 Orion flights to investigate storms off the Mexican coast? Just a couple observations a week is not very likely to be a reliable measurement of intensity. Even if you flew P3 flights once a day into every storm. That intensity prevailed for much less than 24 hours..

If you look at a list of the 10 most powerful Pac storms -- TWO of them are not even named and occurred before 1965 when we didn't have the interest or the tools to accurately measure.. And another TWO were also prior to 1965.. The conclusion is -- the hyperbole "EVER" is overblown. This is the most intense EASTERN PAC storm VERIFIED since the LBJ administration.


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## jc456 (Oct 30, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record
> 
> In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds, Hurricane Patricia broke the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory Oct. 23, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma in the Atlantic Basin almost exactly 10 years earlier. Around 1 p.m. CDT Oct. 23, the minimum central pressure reached its lowest point, 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).
> 
> ...


so I know what was different, Patricia was a Cat 5 that acted like a Cat 3, so, it didn't have the potential of a Cat 4 even though it was classified five.  interesting eh?


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## flacaltenn (Oct 30, 2015)

Actually -- just as likely that "global warming" if it's working according the theory could dampen hurricane intensity because of warmer upper level air. So you need increasingly more powerful El Nino type events to get the same convection and evaporation from the sea surface.

Maybe the Chicken Little Times ought to include that in it's lists of weather weirding events to look for. Lord knows, they need an explanation for the lack of hurricane activity affecting the US for the past 12 years or so..


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## mamooth (Oct 30, 2015)

Actually, it's the deniers who need to explain why they keep making up a phony story that global warming theory supposedly said more hurricanes would hit the USA.


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## depotoo (Oct 30, 2015)

It was even less than half of that 24 hours.   At 2:04am pressure from recon was recorded at 886, at 2:49am, pressure was 880, last vortex of that recon flight.  When recon returned and first vortex taken at  1:35 pm, pressure was down to 879.  By the last vortex at 4:37pm, pressure was up to 910.  The lowest pressure hovered between 2:49am & 1:35pm.  When the storm made landfall at 6:15 the pressure had risen by over 40mb  and the winds reduced to 165 mph.  It immediately dropped its wind speeds even further, and proceeded to unwind, fortunately. 





flacaltenn said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record
> ...


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## depotoo (Oct 30, 2015)

They said stronger





mamooth said:


> Actually, it's the deniers who need to explain why they keep making up a phony story that global warming theory supposedly said more hurricanes would hit the USA.


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## flacaltenn (Oct 30, 2015)

mamooth said:


> Actually, it's the deniers who need to explain why they keep making up a phony story that global warming theory supposedly said more hurricanes would hit the USA.



Right there at the WhiteHouse Climate website.. 







WE CAN CHOOSE TO BELIEVE THAT SUPERSTORM SANDY, AND THE MOST SEVERE DROUGHT IN DECADES, AND THE WORST WILDFIRES SOME STATES HAVE EVER SEEN WERE ALL JUST A FREAK COINCIDENCE. OR WE CAN CHOOSE TO BELIEVE IN THE OVERWHELMING JUDGMENT OF SCIENCE — AND ACT BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE." 
- PRESIDENT OBAMA


You're welcome....


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## Billy_Bob (Oct 30, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> mamooth said:
> 
> 
> > Actually, it's the deniers who need to explain why they keep making up a phony story that global warming theory supposedly said more hurricanes would hit the USA.
> ...



You had to go and remind me of what a totally ignorant moron we have for a president, didn't ya! (not to mention his advisory staff that failed to check facts)  Everything he said was factually a lie or intentional fear-mongering with a lie...  Not one thing he stated is true by Empirical Evidence to the contrary..


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## Old Rocks (Oct 30, 2015)

Silly Billy, how many times in the last nine months have you stated that the El Nino would not develop? How many times have you stated that it was cooling? Nobody with a record of foolishness that you have should be saying anything about anybody else. And Barack Obama is President of the United States of America. Just what the hell have you ever done with your life other than post nonsense on an internet message board?


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## Old Rocks (Oct 30, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record
> ...


How much does the ocean warming do to increase the power of storms? And how much more warming can we expect? What will the effect be on future El Nino's? How many times can we dodge the bullet?

Time to really do some serious research, for lives will depend on it. And it is hard to build the infrastructure we need for the future, when we are using our resources to rebuild from weather damage.


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## Billy_Bob (Oct 30, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Silly Billy, how many times in the last nine months have you stated that the El Nino would not develop? How many times have you stated that it was cooling? Nobody with a record of foolishness that you have should be saying anything about anybody else. And Barack Obama is President of the United States of America. Just what the hell have you ever done with your life other than post nonsense on an internet message board?



Awww.....   Poor little libtard. You cant even provide basic empirical evidence to support your tripe..  The only silly person is you...  And speaking of nonsense, your religious bowing to your god obama shows how totally ignorant of science your are. You probably believe every lie that comes from Obama's mouth.. 

Does your home alter burn day and night for your god? Your private line to get your talking points still working?


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## Old Rocks (Oct 31, 2015)

I provided the links from NOAA, Japan's meteorlogical service, and the USGS and NASA. You, on the other hand, only refer to your 'group'. And their predictions concerning the present very strong El Nino were spot on, while yours, as anyone can see by reviewing this thread, were only 180 degrees off base.

And the present very strong El Nino has nothing at all to do with President Obama. That you have to spew on that is only an indication of how indefensible your lies have become.


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## Billy_Bob (Oct 31, 2015)

More inconvenient facts for the alarmists..

*Region 1-2 has dropped 0.65 deg C this week alone.






*Region three is following suit with a drop of 0.37 deg C





*Region 3-4 is stagnate indicating peak has been reached but the last three days have shown decline of 0.1 deg C.





*Region 4 has declined by 0.37 deg C. and the decline is now constant.





All indicators are that the peak has been reached and cooling is now the topic of the day..  Even the Blob has declined by a full degree C now and it continues to be pulled apart by the cold flows.






I firmly disagree with NOAA on their predictions for this one. And as a scientist it is my right to disagree. The pressures in the Alaska region are dropping rapidly and the water flows around the west coats are cooling rapidly.

But I'm sure Old fraud and others will come on here and ridicule because i dont conform to their religious dogma..


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## Old Rocks (Oct 31, 2015)

LOL. No, we will ridicule you because of the continued stupidity of your posts. You are not a scientist. In fact, I doubt that you have even seen the inside of a community college. Nobody can be as bone ignorant as you and have completed even a few 100 level courses.


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## mamooth (Nov 1, 2015)

flacaltenn said:


> mamooth said:
> 
> 
> > Actually, it's the deniers who need to explain why they keep making up a phony story that global warming theory supposedly said more hurricanes would hit the USA.
> ...



And it clearly doesn't say anything about more hurricanes hitting the USA.

I won't try to guess your motives, so I'll just ask why you made that clearly incorrect claim. And I'll point out your best try was a swing and a miss, which doesn't hold much promise for any further attempts on your part.



> WE CAN CHOOSE TO BELIEVE THAT SUPERSTORM SANDY, AND THE MOST SEVERE DROUGHT IN DECADES, AND THE WORST WILDFIRES SOME STATES HAVE EVER SEEN WERE ALL JUST A FREAK COINCIDENCE. OR WE CAN CHOOSE TO BELIEVE IN THE OVERWHELMING JUDGMENT OF SCIENCE — AND ACT BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE."
> - PRESIDENT OBAMA
> 
> 
> You're welcome....


----------



## flacaltenn (Nov 1, 2015)

mamooth said:


> flacaltenn said:
> 
> 
> > mamooth said:
> ...



Hope you're  too old for the SATs because your reading comprehension and logic skills  sucks. The PREZ clearly implied we can't wait for MORE hurricanes caused by Global Warming -- before we act. AND if it WAS NOT a "freak coincidence" then it must be "SCIENCE". . 

Apparently the community agitator BELIEVES (and is badgering us to believe)   that it's the "OVERWHELMING JUDGEMENT OF SCIENCE" that says more GW caused hurricanes are on the way..


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## bodecea (Nov 1, 2015)

Can't help but wonder if a few years down the road people shake their heads at how everyone ignored the lesson of Patricia.


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## Billy_Bob (Nov 1, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> LOL. No, we will ridicule you because of the continued stupidity of your posts. You are not a scientist. In fact, I doubt that you have even seen the inside of a community college. Nobody can be as bone ignorant as you and have completed even a few 100 level courses.



You really are an ignorant fool who doesn't have a dam clue..

You profess to be going to school and yet you fail at every turn to understand basic scientific principals.. Your having an image problem... projecting your failures on others..


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## Old Rocks (Nov 1, 2015)

Silly Billy, this thread is about a very strong El Nino that you stated repeatedly was not going to happen.


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## Old Rocks (Nov 2, 2015)

The latest weekly SST departures are:
 Niño 4 1.4ºC
 Niño 3.4 2.7ºC
 Niño 3 2.8ºC
 Niño 1+2 2.3ºC

*Well, Billy, time to drop the pants again. 2.7. Now that is some cooling. Up 0.2 in a week. *


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## jc456 (Nov 2, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...


they already know how ocean temperatures will affect hurricanes, it up to mother nature.  There are so many variables that it is too difficult for scientist to predict.  too difficult.

excerpt from mit.edu:
"What are the problems with the current hurricane predictions?

There have been great strides forward made in the science of forecasting hurricanes, but there is still a lot to do.  One major problem is accuracy.  The National Hurricane Center has been forecasting the paths of hurricanes since the early 1950’s.  They issue 120 hour, 96 hour, 72 hour, 48 hour, 24 hour, and 12 hour forecasts.  (The 120 hour and 96 hour forecasts were introduced in 2003.)  The error decreases as the time before landfall decreases.  The error has also decreased over the years as models become more accurate (NOAA, 2004).  Despite becoming more accurate, the error is still relatively large."

Link
Predicting Hurricanes


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## ScienceRocks (Nov 2, 2015)

2.7c is about as high as 1997 ever got for a weekly...Yeah, some cooling. The anti-science loserterians are probably going to bitch about how science is evil now.


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## Old Rocks (Nov 3, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > jc456 said:
> ...


Everything is too difficult if you are a stupid loser. By your own post the predictions have been getting more accurate. And the Europeans predictions are much more accurate than ours. As we get more reliable information, used to create more powerful models on ever more powerful computers, the predictions for 120 hours will become as accurate as our present predictions for 12 hours. And we will look further into the future, say 280 hours. Of course, chaos is a factor, so you are never going to find out which butterfly.


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## Billy_Bob (Nov 3, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Silly Billy, this thread is about a very strong El Nino that you stated repeatedly was not going to happen.



A rise of just 0.10 deg c and in direct conflict with the individual areas which are cooling...  now what kind of deception is happening?   Again Old Fraud refuses to engage his brain.


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## Old Rocks (Nov 3, 2015)

Now silly Billy, you have been saying exactly the same thing since the present El Nino was at 0.5. Now it is at 2.7, that is a super El Nino. Learn to use some bigger words, so your lies don't sound quite as stupid. Take lessons from Mr. Westwall.


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## Billy_Bob (Nov 3, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Now silly Billy, you have been saying exactly the same thing since the present El Nino was at 0.5. Now it is at 2.7, that is a super El Nino. Learn to use some bigger words, so your lies don't sound quite as stupid. Take lessons from Mr. Westwall.



Still refusing to engage your brain...

At least your consistent..


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## Old Rocks (Nov 9, 2015)

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 1.7ºC
Niño 3.4 2.8ºC
Niño 3 2.8ºC
Niño 1+2 2.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Up another notch. Mathew, get the paddle.


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## Old Rocks (Nov 16, 2015)

The latest weekly SST departures are:
 Niño 4 1.7ºC
 Niño 3.4 3.0ºC
 Niño 3 3.0ºC
 Niño 1+2 2.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

*3.0. That is one strong El Nino. And the warm ocean off of Northwestern North America is still there in spades. Silly Billy, you are one lousy prognosticator. Oh yes, and drop the pants again.*


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## Old Rocks (Nov 16, 2015)

El Niño 'is here, and it is huge,' as officials race to prep for winter

El Niño continues to gain strength in the Pacific Ocean, climate experts said, with unusually wet conditions expected to hit California between January and March -- and perhaps into May.

The latest forecast increased the urgency for both government agencies and property owners to prepare for possible flooding.

Local flood control agencies are busy clearing out storm drains, catch basins and other waterways.

In Los Angeles, the California Department of Transportation is increasing its maintenance staff by 25% through the winter months to deal with El Niño. The agency is stockpiling sandbags, readying plows and earth-moving equipment, and pruning trees and brush.

*Still getting stronger. Measures being taken make sense.*


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## Old Rocks (Nov 16, 2015)

The Strongest El Nino in Decades Is Going to Mess With Everything

It has choked Singapore with smoke, triggered Pacific typhoons and left Vietnamese coffee growers staring nervously at dwindling reservoirs. In Africa, cocoa farmers are blaming it for bad harvests, and in the Americas, it has Argentines bracing for lower milk production and Californians believing that rain will finally, mercifully fall.

El Nino is back and in a big way.


Its effects are just beginning in much of the world -- for the most part, it hasn’t really reached North America -- and yet it’s already shaping up potentially as one of the three strongest El Nino patterns since record-keeping began in 1950. It will dominate weather’s many twists and turns through the end of this year and well into next. And it’s causing gyrations in everything from the price of Colombian coffee to the fate of cold-water fish.

Expect “major disruptions, widespread droughts and floods,” Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. In principle, with advance warning, El Nino can be managed and prepared for, “but without that knowledge, all kinds of mayhem will let loose.”

*But, of course, Silly Billy and jc know that nothing of the sort is happening.*


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## jc456 (Nov 16, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> El Niño 'is here, and it is huge,' as officials race to prep for winter
> 
> El Niño continues to gain strength in the Pacific Ocean, climate experts said, with unusually wet conditions expected to hit California between January and March -- and perhaps into May.
> 
> ...


sounds like the right thing to do no matter what the predictions.  Don't you all think?


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## jc456 (Nov 16, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> The Strongest El Nino in Decades Is Going to Mess With Everything
> 
> It has choked Singapore with smoke, triggered Pacific typhoons and left Vietnamese coffee growers staring nervously at dwindling reservoirs. In Africa, cocoa farmers are blaming it for bad harvests, and in the Americas, it has Argentines bracing for lower milk production and Californians believing that rain will finally, mercifully fall.
> 
> ...


All predictions and none has materialized in the US.  So where is it?


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## ScienceRocks (Nov 16, 2015)

For all the faggots that whined about this thing weakening or not beginning to begin with...Well, it just had the highest effin weekly 3.4 reading in history! If you can't see this reality then no wonder you hate science. You're just a idiot and a moron that should be laughed at.

Nino 3.4 up to +3.0C

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 25m25 minutes ago 
+3.0C in Nino 3.4 this week using OISSTv2- highest on record! Winter should be interesting... #ElNino #climate


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## jc456 (Nov 16, 2015)

Matthew said:


> For all the faggots that whined about this thing weakening or not beginning to begin with...Well, it just had the highest effin weekly 3.4 reading in history! If you can't see this reality then no wonder you hate science. You're just a idiot and a moron that should be laughed at.
> 
> Nino 3.4 up to +3.0C
> 
> ...


Predictions El Niño predictions. Come on Matt


----------



## Old Rocks (Nov 17, 2015)

jc, you and Silly Billy were stating six months ago that this El Nino was going to fade away, and go to a La Nina. Now you are saying that the predictions by the meteorologists that study this phenomenon are not going to happen. So, in another six months we will see how far your predictions are from reality one more time. Totally amazing how you knownothing willful ignoramouses continually embarrass yourselves, and then just return to do it one more time.


----------



## jc456 (Nov 17, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> jc, you and Silly Billy were stating six months ago that this El Nino was going to fade away, and go to a La Nina. Now you are saying that the predictions by the meteorologists that study this phenomenon are not going to happen. So, in another six months we will see how far your predictions are from reality one more time. Totally amazing how you knownothing willful ignoramouses continually embarrass yourselves, and then just return to do it one more time.


still waiting for it to hit in the US.  So yeah, I see no el nino yet.


----------



## jc456 (Nov 17, 2015)

Matthew said:


> For all the faggots that whined about this thing weakening or not beginning to begin with...Well, it just had the highest effin weekly 3.4 reading in history! If you can't see this reality then no wonder you hate science. You're just a idiot and a moron that should be laughed at.
> 
> Nino 3.4 up to +3.0C
> 
> ...


where's your pretty little graph with that evidence in it? El what-o?


----------



## Old Rocks (Nov 17, 2015)

*3. El Nino Isn't the Only Player*







*OK, here it is one more time.*


----------



## ScienceRocks (Nov 17, 2015)




----------



## jc456 (Nov 17, 2015)

Matthew said:


>


what's that blue at about 10 degrees by -150?   Looks like a lot of blue there bubba south of the Islands. Strange looks like water that would affect.......the US.  uh oh better call Maaco


----------



## Billy_Bob (Nov 17, 2015)

Data set manipulation is the key to the current alarmist hype and bull shit about this El Nino being the HOTTEST EV"A.  The empirical evidence shows their hype and bullshit very nicely.

IT is not changing weather patterns to any great extent, it is not raising temps when we look at the US-CRN sites. All the things a real El Nino should be doing are not happening.

How does it feel to be lied to?  The bull shit runs deep and wide from the alarmist drones and liars..

Source


----------



## Old Rocks (Nov 17, 2015)

Hey dumb ass, no link to the source of the data? No dates on the data? Another Silly Billy lie.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Nov 18, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Hey dumb ass, no link to the source of the data? No dates on the data? Another Silly Billy lie.



Bwhaaaaaaaaa  Fucktard!

that was NOAA's own data site... And then you pull a Crick and fail to read the graphs notations indicating the dates..  What, you guys need someone to help you handicapped people read and understand basic graphs?

Worse still is the fact that those graphs are well described and dissected at the link I provided. SO YOU FAILED TO READ AS WELL.

Its true.. You can not fix stupid!


----------



## Old Rocks (Nov 18, 2015)

Silly Billy, the dates kind of matter. As does a link to the specific sites, so we can judge the context of the part taken from the site. And you have repeatedly proven yourself to be a liar.


----------



## Old Rocks (Nov 19, 2015)

Now Silly Billy, and the rest of you denialist liars, how about a prediction for Mondays El Nino reading? -1? -2? LOL Well, at some point it has to go the other way. So eventually you will see a year cooler than the prior one. And you will be dancing and proclaiming how you knew there was a cooling coming. Even when that cooler year ranks in the top ten warmest years. You guys are getting pretty damned pathetic. Gotta love it when you are proclaiming that you have Phd's and Masters, and then constantly make predictions that turn out to be 180 degrees from what happens. 

Westwall, this is the fifth year you have been predicting a cooling, and stating how the scientists at the USGS, NOAA, NASA, the AGU, and the GSA were real dummies for predicting a warming. And here we are with hottest year on record by far in the making, and three other years, 2005, 2010, and 2014 about the same as 1998. Not only that, 2014 was mostly ENSO neutral for the year. Really, who is looking damned stupid?


----------



## jc456 (Nov 20, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Now Silly Billy, and the rest of you denialist liars, how about a prediction for Mondays El Nino reading? -1? -2? LOL Well, at some point it has to go the other way. So eventually you will see a year cooler than the prior one. And you will be dancing and proclaiming how you knew there was a cooling coming. Even when that cooler year ranks in the top ten warmest years. You guys are getting pretty damned pathetic. Gotta love it when you are proclaiming that you have Phd's and Masters, and then constantly make predictions that turn out to be 180 degrees from what happens.
> 
> Westwall, this is the fifth year you have been predicting a cooling, and stating how the scientists at the USGS, NOAA, NASA, the AGU, and the GSA were real dummies for predicting a warming. And here we are with hottest year on record by far in the making, and three other years, 2005, 2010, and 2014 about the same as 1998. Not only that, 2014 was mostly ENSO neutral for the year. Really, who is looking damned stupid?


so dude, we're expecting 8 inches of snow by noon tomorrow.  Just a couple of days later than last year.  Hmmmmm, as I have continually stated in this thread, the weather pattern in the US has not changed to support the el nino position you and whoever claim.  I welcome the el nino, as I would embrace warmer weather this winter.  however, no evidence is at play yet.  So excuse me if I don't agree with your post.


----------



## Old Rocks (Nov 24, 2015)

The latest weekly SST departures are:
 Niño 4 1.8ºC
 Niño 3.4 3.1ºC
 Niño 3 3.0ºC
 Niño 1+2 2.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

*3.1. Time the drop the pants again, Silly Billy. But it has to peak soon, and your travail will soon be over. Then you can make an utter fool of yourself on another subject. LOL*


----------



## jc456 (Nov 24, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> The latest weekly SST departures are:
> Niño 4 1.8ºC
> Niño 3.4 3.1ºC
> Niño 3 3.0ºC
> ...


and yet no relief for California yet thanks to this monster.


----------



## Old Rocks (Nov 29, 2015)

Silly Billy, Monday coming up again. Are you ready?

Well, California has yet to get relief, but Texas, as predicted, has gotten plenty of relief. Over 55 inches worth at Dallas, a new record, and another month to go. Looks like the scientists were correct yet once again.


----------



## Old Rocks (Nov 30, 2015)

The latest weekly SST departures are:
 Niño 4 1.8ºC
 Niño 3.4 3.0ºC
 Niño 3 3.0ºC
 Niño 1+2 2.4ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

*Hey Silly Billy, it dropped a whole 0.1. You can start your victory dance now. It is cooling. But still a Super El Nino. And you still look like one stupid ass for your predictions of no El Nino.*


----------



## Old Rocks (Dec 8, 2015)

Hey Silly Billy, notice that the El Nino is now down to 2.9? Still in the super range, and still higher than any recorded in the past, but down 0.2, none the less. I guess you can finally do a victory dance. It is actually declining. 

And in the meantime, we just got over 6 inches of rain at Timberline on Hood. That should be 6 feet of snow at this time of year. 

Oh yes, if you wish to look at the prediction chart, there is one line that shows the El Nino starting to get stronger again in April. Now, I doubt that will happen, and most models show a continued decline to neutral status about that time. However, it was only one model that showed the present El Nino going past 3.1. 

Now Silly Billy, what is your prediction? We need it so we know what will not happen.


----------



## Old Rocks (Dec 8, 2015)

December Warmth Sends Temperatures Up to 30 Degrees Above Average

*December Warmth Sends Temperatures Up to 30 Degrees Above Average*

A very mild weather pattern for early-December standards has engulfed a large swath of the Lower 48 states. Temperatures will soar up to 30 degrees above early-December averages through this weekend as the mild air spreads from the western and central states to the East Coast.

For some locations, the low temperatures this week will be as warm or even warmer than the average high for this time of year. In addition, some record highs and record warm low temperatures could be set through the week ahead.

Below are the forecast details.

*Looks like NOAA and NASA were correct again, and Silly Billy and jc are, as usual, 180 degrees off.*


----------



## jc456 (Dec 8, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> December Warmth Sends Temperatures Up to 30 Degrees Above Average
> 
> *December Warmth Sends Temperatures Up to 30 Degrees Above Average*
> 
> ...


Well, either it will be cold in the arctic or it will be cold in the lower 48.  Where do you want the cold?  Do you want ice in the arctic or not?

i was under the impression that ice in the Arctic is the most important earth requirement.


----------



## Old Rocks (Dec 8, 2015)

Hah, not going to admit to making all those incorrect predictions, just going to try to change the subject. jc, you and the other fruitloops here are pathetic.


----------



## Old Rocks (Dec 10, 2015)

Skooks, how is that East Coast ski season working out?


----------



## Old Rocks (Dec 10, 2015)

jc456 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > December Warmth Sends Temperatures Up to 30 Degrees Above Average
> ...


I was under the impression that you said that we would definately not see any result from this super El Nino in the US. Don't want to talk about that?


----------



## mamooth (Dec 11, 2015)

Some thread highlights:

Billy and jc have been completely wrong about everything nonstop since April 26, 2015. Old Rocks has been pointing out the failed predictions regularly, too many times to repeat. These posts just represent the start of their unbroken record of failure.

Post #12 April 26, 2015


			
				Billy_Bob said:
			
		

> EL NADA is about to go away with a vengeance as cooler water is now cycling and a La Nina is building...
> 
> Were about to have a serious drop in ocean temps.. And Mathew is hoping like hell it will last through may and the Paris convention... At current rate of decline we will go negative mid May.



Post #24 April 26, 2015


			
				jc456 said:
			
		

> don't care. fact is there is no el nino and won't be. See you in September as the song goes



That's over 7 months of consistent total failure on their part. And yet they continue to pretend otherwise. And after failing hilariously and refusing to admit it for over 7 months straight, they still actually expect to be taken seriously.

However, I don't think either of them snagged the award for the craziest post on this long thread. I think that goes to Frank, for his hit-and-run post informing everyone that global warming is a conspiracy by Jewish bankers.

Post #247, June 15 2015


			
				CrusaderFrank said:
			
		

> Rothschild money and power is driving the AGWCult so its not surprising that you'll say and do anything to please your masters.


----------



## Old Rocks (Dec 14, 2015)

We now see Silly Billy stating that he was correct about the El Nino on another thread. Need to keep this thread up front where any newcomer can see the real predictive abilities of our 'Conservatives'.


----------



## Old Rocks (Dec 16, 2015)

No White Christmas for the East Coast this year. Scientists correct again.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Dec 17, 2015)

Alarmist deniers of science are running a muck with their claims of a super this or super that or Godzilla this... all the while NOAA BACKSTROKES and is pulling back from all of this in their December update... (I guess they dont want to drowned in their incompetence)





> "*There is a lot we don’t understand about how El Niño works, and exactly why the atmospheric response is weaker in 2015 than it was in 1997*, despite very similar east-central Pacific temperatures, is going to be a hot research topic going forward. …"



They admit that this El Nino is weak and not acting like they expected. That temperatures are much lower and that the atmospheric effects are diminished in comparison to other events in the short history of tracking these( just 65 years)

Source

Looks like man-tooth,crick, DOTfail, and Mathew are going to have to get new material.. NOAA is backing off thier BS AGW crap..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Dec 17, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> We now see Silly Billy stating that he was correct about the El Nino on another thread. Need to keep this thread up front where any newcomer can see the real predictive abilities of our 'Conservatives'.



Old Fraud and his lying crap again..  And yes i was right, NOAA has again confirmed what I have been saying for a long time in their Dec update...


----------



## Billy_Bob (Dec 17, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> December Warmth Sends Temperatures Up to 30 Degrees Above Average
> 
> *December Warmth Sends Temperatures Up to 30 Degrees Above Average*
> 
> ...



Way to go fucktard!   WEATHER events... not AGW..


----------



## Crick (Dec 17, 2015)

Billy, I found something on my Desktop.  Check this out:



			
				Billy_Bob said:
			
		

> *At this rate of decline the El Nino wont be present in just a few short weeks.*



*13 September 2015*
Thread: Tracking the El Nino
Post #584

So... how'd THAT prediction work out for you?


----------



## skookerasbil (Dec 18, 2015)

This El Nino couldn't be more inviting if you are a New Yorker after several Decembers in a row where we froze out balls off. Bring it........hey Billy, how long is this spell going to last? Its sIcK!!! My work holiday party...........for years, stand outside at every one with my drink and my ciggy and then you gotta go in and sit by a fire for 30 minutes. This year........Im cruising home with both windows down and blasting the Grateful Dead. Cant beat it.........


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Dec 18, 2015)

Matthew said:


> CFSv2 showing the strongest El Niño event on record, with an ONI of +2.6C, higher than 1997's peak value of +2.4C
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Another dud.
California rainfall is well below normal and only 4 months left in the rain season.


----------



## Old Rocks (Dec 18, 2015)

Well, now, Oregon and Washington have been getting what California needs


----------



## jc456 (Dec 18, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Hah, not going to admit to making all those incorrect predictions, just going to try to change the subject. jc, you and the other fruitloops here are pathetic.


but factually, I'm correct and you aren't That is confirmed by you avoiding answering any question I ask.

That means you don't want to publicly admit you're wrong.  That is a character issue BTW.  Sometimes in life a person may be wrong.  I accept that I possibly could be wrong.  You obviously no.


----------



## skookerasbil (Dec 19, 2015)

*An El Niño is officially declared if the temperature of the western tropical Pacific rises 0.5C above the long-term average. The extreme El Niño year of 1997-98 saw a rise of more than 3C.

El Niño is one extreme in a natural cycle, with the opposite extreme called La Niña. The effect of climate change on the cycle is not yet understood, though some scientists think El Niño will become more common.

How El Niño will change the world's weather in 2014


*


----------



## Crick (Dec 19, 2015)

Billy, I found something on my Desktop.  Check this out:



			
				Billy_Bob said:
			
		

> *At this rate of decline the El Nino wont be present in just a few short weeks.*



*13 September 2015*
Thread: Tracking the El Nino
Post #584

Still waiting for some Billy Bob comment on this prediction of his. You know, like where'd you go wrong?  Did the world's various weather services just make up this el Nino?  I mean, who's going to tell them they're wrong?  Besides you.


----------



## Old Rocks (Dec 20, 2015)

Poor Silly Billy, like Stephanie, just cannot get away from his foolishness.


----------



## Crick (Dec 21, 2015)

And let's make certain he doesn't



Crick said:


> Billy, I found something on my Desktop.  Check this out:





			
				Billy_Bob said:
			
		

> *At this rate of decline the El Nino wont be present in just a few short weeks.*



*


Crick said:



			13 September 2015
		
Click to expand...

*


Crick said:


> Thread: Tracking the El Nino
> Post #584
> 
> So... how'd THAT prediction work out for you?


----------



## Geaux4it (Dec 21, 2015)

15 day forecast for Southern California points to NO EL NINO for us

-Geaux


----------



## Crick (Dec 21, 2015)

Hmm... uhh.. the el Nino doesn't take place in Southern California.  Some of it's collateral effects often do, but there you go.


----------



## Old Rocks (Dec 22, 2015)

Well, Silly Billy and jc, look at the temps on the East Coast for Christmas. The scientists were spot on and you silly asses were completely wrong. But you are batting 100%. Wrong.


----------



## Old Rocks (Dec 28, 2015)

The latest weekly SST departures are:
 Niño 4 1.6ºC
 Niño 3.4 2.7ºC
 Niño 3 2.7ºC
 Niño 1+2 2.1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

*Front and center, Silly Billy, 2.7 is certainly not a dying El Nino. What happened, some warm water get in the way of your predictions?*


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 1, 2016)

Here we go, Silly Billy, we must keep this front and center, just to show the quality of your predictions.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 2, 2016)

Mississippi River at Record Flood Levels at Cape Girardeau, Missouri; Will Rise Above Flood Stage in Memphis This Weekend

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Los+Angeles+CA+USCA0638:1:US

*Looks like the El Nino is having quite an effect. Add that to AGW, and you get new extreme weather records. Looks like LA is going to get the start of the predicted rains in the next two weeks.*


----------



## Skull Pilot (Jan 2, 2016)

I love El Nino it usually means a warmer winter in my neck of the woods


----------



## Geaux4it (Jan 2, 2016)

Looks like us in Southern California are going to get our first significant rain is some time now starting tomorrow. I recall the 81/82 El Nino very well out here. I was just out of the Military and beating the streets for a job. All I cared about was surfing and banging surf chicks

So I took a job stuffing glass insulation in environmental chambers. $118 a week take home. Good times

I was living the dream

-Geaux


----------



## Geaux4it (Jan 2, 2016)

Series of Storms to Bring Plenty of Rain, Snow to California

Series of Storms to Bring Plenty of Rain, Snow to California

The next series of storms to impact the West Coast will be a bit different than what the region has experienced in recent months. This go around, a large portion of California, right down to the southern coast, can expect a decent helping of much needed rain.

For the Cascades and Sierra, expect hefty amounts of snow to pile up into the coming week. Here, the snow has been seemingly adding up all season, leading to a snowpack that is much more substantial than at the same point last year.

According to winter weather expert Tom Niziol, through Dec. 30, 2015, the Sierra snowpack was at 105 percent of normal for the season, compared to just 50 percent through the same date in 2014.







Stormy Pattern Ahead

Rounds of upper level energy will pivot toward the West Coast, resulting in a series of storm systems.



A dip in the jet stream across the eastern North Pacific will work to direct this next parade of storm systems into the West Coast, this time a bit further south, pointing directly at the state of California.

Here's a look at what you can expect.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 2, 2016)

Yes, finally California is getting the much needed rain. And the problems that come with that rain. But it will take at least a couple of years of hard rains to make up for the drought that California has seen in the last few years. And if the rains do not come in 2017, by the end of that year, California will be right back where they are today. Let's hope for at least two years of good rains.


----------



## Geaux4it (Jan 2, 2016)

*Issued by The National Weather Service*
*Los Angeles, CA*
6:17am PST, Sat Jan 2


... A SERIES OF STORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA MUCH OF NEXT WEEK... 

... TIME TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS FROM RECENT BURN AREAS... 

A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE LINING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT BETWEEN 2 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY... AND BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY TO 6 INCHES ACROSS FAVORED SW FACING COASTAL SLOPES INCLUDING THE SANTA YNEZ AND SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS. 

THIS MUCH RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD BRING FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS FROM RECENT BURN AREAS. THE FIRST STORM WHICH ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WILL BRING SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES... WITH LESS INTENSITY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER... A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A MORE SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS ALLOWING FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND RAINFALL TOTALS. TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BETWEEN STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHEN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN... EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BY THURSDAY... BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET WITH THESE STORMS... EXCEPT LOWERING TO BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECTING AROUND 2 FEET OF NEW SNOW FOR MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 6000 FEET. DRIVING CONDITIONS COULD BE HAZARDOUS NEXT WEEK. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD CAUSE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AS THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY... DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GRAPEVINE AND SOLEDAD CANYON PASS COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC. 

ON TOP OF THE RAIN AND SNOW... COASTAL AREAS CAN EXPECT HIGH SURF THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF STORMY CONDITIONS... WINDS... AND HIGH SURF COULD BRING COASTAL FLOODING... ALONG WITH EROSION TO BEACHES AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES SUCH AS PIERS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING BEACH PARKING LOTS... HARBOR WALKWAYS... AND CAMPGROUNDS WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A VERY LARGE SWELL ARRIVES. 

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING IN OR BELOW RECENT BURN AREAS... SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR THE IMPENDING RAINFALL NEXT WEEK. NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE ACTION. FINISH UP OUTDOOR PROJECTS AND CONSIDER PREPARING SAND BAGS FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS. RESIDENTS WITH BEACHFRONT PROPERTY ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS... WATCHES... WARNINGS... AND ADVISORIES AS THE STORMS AND SWELLS MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION. TRAVELERS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ARE ADVISED TO MAKE CONTINGENCY TRAVEL PLANS... ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVE. LOCAL COMMUTES COULD BE IMPACTED DUE TO POSSIBLE ROADWAY FLOODING AND PONDING ON PAVEMENT SURFACES.


----------



## Crick (Jan 3, 2016)

Billy?  What's your analysis?  What mistake are these fellows at the NWS making?  Or are they just lies?


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 3, 2016)

Sun




61°
49°
Mon




61°
50°
Tue




55°
46°
Wed




54°
45°
Thu




53°
42°
Fri




59°
42°
Sat




59°
45°




62°
45°

*This cannot possibly be right, Silly Billy, said so.*


----------



## 9aces (Jan 4, 2016)

Funny, seems like the NWS is agreeing with Billy.  Does a Weakening El Niño Mean a More Dangerous 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

He missed the timing a bit, but not by a whole lot if their estimate is correct.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 5, 2016)

9aces said:


> Funny, seems like the NWS is agreeing with Billy.  Does a Weakening El Niño Mean a More Dangerous 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
> 
> He missed the timing a bit, but not by a whole lot if their estimate is correct.


LOL. Read the whole of this thread, if you repeat that after reading it, you are as big a liar as Silly Billy. From the git-go Billy claimed there would be no El Nino, then that if there was, at a time when there plainly was, that it would be a very weak one. Kept that nonsense up until November. Now the people that predicted that the El Nino would fade away about mid-year have been shown to be correct for the whole of last year. And Silly Billy predictions were 100% wrong the whole time.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jan 5, 2016)

9aces said:


> Funny, seems like the NWS is agreeing with Billy.  Does a Weakening El Niño Mean a More Dangerous 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
> 
> He missed the timing a bit, but not by a whole lot if their estimate is correct.



He missed the timing by half a fucking year. Please stick with stuff you understand or be ready for people to laugh at you. lol


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 5, 2016)

The latest weekly SST departures are:
 Niño 4 1.5ºC
 Niño 3.4 2.7ºC
 Niño 3 2.6ºC
 Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

*Still in the super El Nino range.*


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 5, 2016)

jc, California is getting their rain exactly as the people at NOAA predicted. You and Billy are good for so many laughs.


----------



## jc456 (Jan 5, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> jc, California is getting their rain exactly as the people at NOAA predicted. You and Billy are good for so many laughs.


So you're saying that the only reason California gets rain is when there is an el nino?  Wow, no wonder they've been in a drought.  Funny man old socks.  Still smelling up the forum though.  Still no presence of el nino all of 2015 in the mid to east coast regions.  Still hasn't happened. Warmer weather has always come from the south from Texas and Oklahoma.  Because someone cries out el nino now every weather event is due to it is bullshit.

just so you know.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 5, 2016)

Look, silly ass, you were making fun of NOAA for the fact that they predicted rain for the current El Nino. There prediction was that there would be major rains in the three months following the peak of the El Nino for California. Right on schedule, the rains are starting. They were right, you and Silly Billy were and are full of shit, as usual.






Now, make your predictions. We shall see who is correct.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 5, 2016)

*Precipitation
Jan 2016*

 *Jan-Feb-Mar 2016*



*That is what NOAA says, what say you?*


----------



## flacaltenn (Jan 5, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Look, silly ass, you were making fun of NOAA for the fact that they predicted rain for the current El Nino. There prediction was that there would be major rains in the three months following the peak of the El Nino for California. Right on schedule, the rains are starting. They were right, you and Silly Billy were and are full of shit, as usual.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Except that's NOT the El Nino pattern that they forecasted 6 months ago.. I'd say about "equal chances" of success/failure.


----------



## 9aces (Jan 5, 2016)

Matthew said:


> 9aces said:
> 
> 
> > Funny, seems like the NWS is agreeing with Billy.  Does a Weakening El Niño Mean a More Dangerous 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
> ...



Half a year is much better than the so-called experts you've been slathering over.

Morons like you are simply incapable apparently of figuring out that trying to base a prediction off a micro-fraction of the data is more a matter of luck when they're right than anything else.


----------



## jc456 (Jan 5, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Look, silly ass, you were making fun of NOAA for the fact that they predicted rain for the current El Nino. There prediction was that there would be major rains in the three months following the peak of the El Nino for California. Right on schedule, the rains are starting. They were right, you and Silly Billy were and are full of shit, as usual.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hahahaha, sure, you can call it what you want, but I'll call it JOHNSON


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jan 5, 2016)

I see it is time to educate the alarmist fools once again..

The AMO and PDO are both negative (cooling) which is 180 degrees from what it was doing in 1997-98. During that time both of these were spiking at the same time we were at solar max of that current cycle. This time they are cooling and the sun is quiet and cooling.  The latent heat created by El Niño is already plummeting in the northern hemisphere.

There are significant differences in the states of the oceans and solar output between the current El Nino and the previous one. The weather patterns Old Rocks posted up thread are one of a forming La Niña (here) and precipitation pattern (here).

The warmth that was seen in the 1997-98 event is being countered by a negative AMO and PDO shift coupled with low solar input to the earths systems.

The late 2016-17 La Nina (which is now forming quite rapidly) will occur during the wind down of of the current weak solar cycle to its minimum. (I expect solar cycle minimum in late-2018 or early 2019.) 

The step change may be *down*, not up with a La Nina in 2017. With the remainder of our current El Niño to be almost flat with a possible 3-4 month area that is warmer but not warm enough to cause the pause to cease.  After that the change is to cooling.

Crick and Old Rocks won't post up their own predictions because the do not understand what is in play with the current El Niño. 

The run up to the next CAGW alarmist conclave will happen with all of their models being well outside of 95% confidence level, even with all the unwarranted upward adjustments they are making..


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## Billy_Bob (Jan 5, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> The latest weekly SST departures are:
> Niño 4 1.5ºC
> *Niño 3.4 2.7ºC*
> Niño 3 2.6ºC
> ...



Why are your numbers ALWAYS INFLATED by 0.5 deg C?






Not for long..  The rapid decrease is going to continue. Region 1-2 is cooling rapidly, which means there is no new heat to support anything.





You see those three highlights of the last three (three day averages)  The temperatures are falling so fast we will be totally out of El Niño range in region 1-2 in less than two weeks.

This thing is collapsing fast...


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jan 5, 2016)

This El Niño is going to fizzle and the coming La Niña is going to be big, very big...


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 5, 2016)

Billy_Bob said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > The latest weekly SST departures are:
> ...


OK, Silly Billy, we'll quote this at that time.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 5, 2016)

Silly Billy, April 26, 2015

"There is a cooling undercurrent that is about to wipe out any warming that we have seen. The change has already happened in the arctic deep water cold return."


----------



## Matted Joybeard (Jan 5, 2016)

About == 9 to 12 months


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jan 6, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Silly Billy, April 26, 2015
> 
> "There is a cooling undercurrent that is about to wipe out any warming that we have seen. The change has already happened in the arctic deep water cold return."



And its about to make an appearance that is going to fizzle the current patterns...  But keep your head rectally impacted you moron...


----------



## Crick (Jan 7, 2016)

You've been making predictions consistently 180 degrees out for the last four months.  Why in god's name would anyone listen to your opinion on the topic?  Faith in your degree in atmospheric physics?


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jan 7, 2016)

As for what I think will happen with* the nino.*..Based on some subsurface maps I've looked at the past week it appears to be weakening slower then the 1997-1998 event. The cold pool expanding eastward is weaker then it was at the same point in those years...

I'll predict that it will remain above 2.0c to mid feb and above 1 through late May!  There's a chance we may get to 0c or slightly below by Oct-Dec time period, but I honestly doubt we get the three months needed at -.5c at 3.4 to get even a weak nina this year. Of course this could change, but we're talking about 11-12 months ahead here. 

With this in mind I doubt we'll cool as fast as we did in 1998 and 2016 will be at least as warm as 2015! Won't say warmer but of course that could happen if the cooling is as slow as I think it maybe.


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## ScienceRocks (Jan 7, 2016)

Here is one of the maps


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jan 8, 2016)

Matthew said:


> Here is one of the maps








The cold pool near the equator is massive.  The cold water is amassing so fast that the warm water above it is now less than 100 meters.  The 97-98 event had water at 300 meters in depth well above the +3 deg C anomaly.  Regions 1-2 are falling so fast that in just the last 6 days we have fallen 0.82 deg C.  The NOAA predictions are fantasy, by March 30 we will be near zero anomaly or below trending towards La Niña. Without a positive AMO and PDO, with low solar output, there simply isn't any new heat to continue driving anything.


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## ScienceRocks (Jan 8, 2016)

I'll admit from the surface to the sub-surface from 100-130 west this nino isn't anywhere near 1997-1998 event. Very much a area 3, 3.4 and 4 nino...3.4 is in fact stronger then the 1997-1998 event that peaked at 2.7c for its highest anomaly.

Still it is obvious that the cold subsurface water is far weaker and far further west of 1997-1998 event.


----------



## eagle1462010 (Jan 8, 2016)

I predicted it a good while back..........and crick was challenging me then...........

History repeats.......


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## Billy_Bob (Jan 8, 2016)

This animation shows just how fast the heat is leaving. And how fast the cold pool is forming to 450 meters


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## Old Rocks (Jan 9, 2016)

You were saying the s ame shit last April, Silly Billy. NOAA says an El Nino to April or May. Bet they are right once again, and you are just flap-yapping, which is all that you have ever done here.


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## Billy_Bob (Jan 9, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> You were saying the s ame shit last April, Silly Billy. NOAA says an El Nino to April or May. Bet they are right once again, and you are just flap-yapping, which is all that you have ever done here.



Coming from you, who doesn't have clue how or why El Niño forms or why it changes to La Niña this is some funny shit. 

SO tell me old fraud why haven't the weather patterns changed to reflect an El Niño and why are they shifting into a solid La Niña pattern? What has changed and why didn't they shift into a solid El Niño pattern before?  What meteorological conditions stropped this?  Do you know?


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## Old Rocks (Jan 9, 2016)

Odd, that is not what NOAA says. And guess who has been spot on for the last year, and who has been constantly wrong the whole time? Silly Billy, no one with a brain takes anything you say at this point seriously.


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## mamooth (Jan 10, 2016)

A tropical storm forms in Pacific:

Pali Becomes Earliest Central Pacific Tropical Storm on Record - wunderground.com

In the Atlantic, a disturbance is given a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm.

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

In case anyone hadn't noticed, it's early January.


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## Old Rocks (Jan 11, 2016)

Home
News & Features
ENSO Blog
*ENSO Blog*



*July in Christmas*
January 8, 2016
Was El Niño to blame for the above-average temperatures during November and December 2015?  As always, the answer is not that simple.  

read more


News
How the Climate System Works
Climate Change & Global Warming
Natural Climate Patterns
Climate Impacts
Observing & Predicting
Policy & Planning
Extreme Events

Home
News & Features
ENSO Blog | NOAA Climate.gov
*Observing & Predicting*



*Every U.S. state warmer than 20th-century average in 2015*
January 6, 2016
The 2015 annual average U.S. temperature was 54.4°F, 2.4°F above the 20th century average, the second warmest year on record.

read more

| NOAA Climate.gov

*Well, as predicted, 2015 was a very interesting year.*


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## Billy_Bob (Jan 12, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Home
> News & Features
> ENSO Blog
> *ENSO Blog*
> ...


And your source used highly adjusted Karl Et Al crap.. how not surprising.. Someday soon you will be knocked back into reality from your crap..


----------



## Crick (Jan 13, 2016)

Yeah... someday soon.


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## ScienceRocks (Jan 13, 2016)

NOAA images of the Eq Pac Subsurface Profile for Jan 8, 2016, for the Temperature Anom, and the Temperature, respectively; it looks like the upwelling phase has ended (note the deep tough of cool water is breaking up).  This impression is supported by the third NOAA image of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Jan 11 2016; which shows the Heat Anom is now increasing (presumably as another downwelling phase moves eastward due to the current WWB). 
	

	
	
		
		

		
			











I don't expect any kind of real weakening until mid spring at this rate!


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## Weatherman2020 (Jan 13, 2016)

The "record" El Niño is a bust.  Weather patterns have remained almost normal in the West with SoCal, the supposed ground zero of storms, at 40% of average rainfall with only 10 weeks remaining in the rainy season.  No storms are seen in the long range forecast. Storms continue to track into the Pacific Northwest in a normal year pattern.

Guess what.  All those climate models were WRONG.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 13, 2016)

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]*California Weather Blog*[/FONT]
*Relatively dry conditions persist in Southern California; Sierra Nevada snowfall best in years*
Relatively little has changed since my last update, and so the present post will be a short one.



Pockets of NorCal have seen above-average precipitation so far this season, but most of the state remains below average. (WRCC)

*Not as much as we would like, but more than california has had in a long time.*​A handful of modest weather systems have brought generally light precipitation and cold temperatures to parts of California over the past week or so, mostly in the north. While these systems did little to alleviate long-term water deficits, they did preferentially add some more water to the already healthy Sierra Nevada snowpack. In fact, statewide snow water equivalent is slightly above average for this calendar date–no small feat in a time ofrecord global warmth and immediately following California’s most abysmal snow conditions in hundreds of years.
Clearly, though, there is still a very (very) long way to go if California is going to see substantial drought relief this year. Fortunately, the short-term outlook is quite favorable.


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## Weatherman2020 (Jan 13, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]*California Weather Blog*[/FONT]
> *Relatively dry conditions persist in Southern California; Sierra Nevada snowfall best in years*
> Relatively little has changed since my last update, and so the present post will be a short one.
> 
> ...


Once again, manmade climate models are WRONG.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 13, 2016)

Once again, post something with links to back up your assertations. Thus far, all you have posted is 'Conservative' flap yap.


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 13, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Once again, post something with links to back up your assertations. Thus far, all you have posted is 'Conservative' flap yap.


What a moron.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 13, 2016)

Hey dumb fuck, I posted the current weather map of California. You just resorted to meaningless insults in reply.


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 13, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Hey dumb fuck, I posted the current weather map of California. You just resorted to meaningless insults in reply.


You posted in inaccurate map of colors.  You idiots believe anything if it's on the internet like the good sheeple you are.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 13, 2016)

Well, I certainly labeled you correctly as a dumb fuck. Obviously you cannot read simple maps and graphs. Seems the case for most 'Conservatives'.


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 13, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Well, I certainly labeled you correctly as a dumb fuck. Obviously you cannot read simple maps and graphs. Seems the case for most 'Conservatives'.


GOT A LINK?


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## Old Rocks (Jan 13, 2016)

Sacramento and Northern California Weather Radar – KCRA 3 News

Southern California Doppler Weather Radar Map - AccuWeather.com

*So easy to do. And I constantly bemoan my inadequate computer skills. *


----------



## jc456 (Jan 13, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Sacramento and Northern California Weather Radar – KCRA 3 News
> 
> Southern California Doppler Weather Radar Map - AccuWeather.com
> 
> *So easy to do. And I constantly bemoan my inadequate computer skills. *


dude, he was interested in seeing where you got your information.  And, I thought in this forum, if you were posting something from a link, you were expected to provide the link. Right?


----------



## Skull Pilot (Jan 13, 2016)

Going to miss another big snow storm this weekend

Thanks El Nino


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## jc456 (Jan 13, 2016)

Skull Pilot said:


> Going to miss another big snow storm this weekend
> 
> Thanks El Nino


well in Chicago, woke up to zero degrees with the chance of snow in the afternoon.  Where the fk is the el nino at?


----------



## Skull Pilot (Jan 13, 2016)

jc456 said:


> Skull Pilot said:
> 
> 
> > Going to miss another big snow storm this weekend
> ...



I live in New England and El Nino winters are usually much milder than normal here

Thanks El Nino


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 13, 2016)

jc456 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Sacramento and Northern California Weather Radar – KCRA 3 News
> ...



[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]*California Weather Blog*[/FONT]
*Relatively dry conditions persist in Southern California; Sierra Nevada snowfall best in years*
Relatively little has changed since my last update, and so the present post will be a short one.



Pockets of NorCal have seen above-average precipitation so far this season, but most of the state remains below average. (WRCC)

*Not as much as we would like, but more than california has had in a long time.*

California Weather Blog. That is the link. Just posted it for you, jc, never say that I am not kind to our retarded citizens.​


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## Old Rocks (Jan 13, 2016)

jc456 said:


> Skull Pilot said:
> 
> 
> > Going to miss another big snow storm this weekend
> ...


Skull Pilot is hogging it all.


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 13, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Sacramento and Northern California Weather Radar – KCRA 3 News
> 
> Southern California Doppler Weather Radar Map - AccuWeather.com
> 
> *So easy to do. And I constantly bemoan my inadequate computer skills. *


----------



## jc456 (Jan 13, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...


It's a blog right?  Do they do the work or post up others?   Just curious the chart says NOAA, and the description seems to be the bloggers.  since it states my last update.  So who is the dude/ dudette?


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 13, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Sacramento and Northern California Weather Radar – KCRA 3 News
> 
> Southern California Doppler Weather Radar Map - AccuWeather.com
> 
> *So easy to do. And I constantly bemoan my inadequate computer skills. *


From your own blog. 
A. End of December is not the early rainy season in CA. 
B. January has had one significant rainfall in half the State with no more forecasted for the remainder of the month.  

*Early season rains soak Northern California; statewide storms likely in January*

Modest drought relief in NorCal, but SoCal remains relatively dry As highlighted in the last post, substantial and widespread precipitation has fallen in recent days across the northern half of California. Along the North Coast and in Mendocino County, this rainfall has actually set a … Continue reading →
December 23, 20152939 Comments


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 13, 2016)

Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.


----------



## mamooth (Jan 14, 2016)

Weatherman2020 said:


> Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.



But the models were perfect on the El Nino. You, as is usual, were hilariously wrong, and are trying to deflect from your abject failure with mindless bluster. Not gonna work.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Alex just formed in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Alex : Tracking Map

There have been El Ninos before, yet they've never resulted in January Atlantic hurricanes before. Something is different this time. Whatever could it be?

It's almost as if the oceans are ... warmer. Oh wait, the oceans _are_ warmer this time around. Golly, what could have caused that?


----------



## flacaltenn (Jan 14, 2016)

mamooth said:


> Weatherman2020 said:
> 
> 
> > Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.
> ...



Oh my.. The DRAMA is just like on the Batchelor.   Tropical atlantic is not much warmer than the past 30 years. Dec -- Jan CAT ONE storms have happened since weather was an item..

List of off-season Atlantic hurricanes - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

But most importantly --- Warmer water is not a "sufficient" condition to form or intensify a Jan Tropical STorm..


----------



## westwall (Jan 14, 2016)

Weatherman2020 said:


> Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.











Heck, they can't accurately predict TWO days down the road.  The belief that they are accurate merely reinforces the unscientific nature of the faithers.


----------



## westwall (Jan 14, 2016)

mamooth said:


> Weatherman2020 said:
> 
> 
> > Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.
> ...









They were?  Here in Nevada the claims were "well, we hope we get more moisture but don't bet on it"...


----------



## jc456 (Jan 14, 2016)

westwall said:


> mamooth said:
> 
> 
> > Weatherman2020 said:
> ...


And the polar Vortex continues to happen.  If it were really an el nino, there wouldn't be any polar vortex, Tooth can you hear me?


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 14, 2016)

mamooth said:


> Weatherman2020 said:
> 
> 
> > Lesson learned is that the climate models can't even predict even close to accurate what will happen in 3 months let alone in a hundred years.
> ...


The climate models were dead wrong.  Storm tracks were to shift to SoCal, the Pacific Northwest was to be dry.  Guess where the storm tracks continue to be?

And bringing up an Atlantic hurricane as evidence of El Niño is simply hilarious. You obviously don't even know what El Niño is.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jan 14, 2016)

Weatherman2020 said:


> The "record" El Niño is a bust.  Weather patterns have remained almost normal in the West with SoCal, the supposed ground zero of storms, at 40% of average rainfall with only 10 weeks remaining in the rainy season.  No storms are seen in the long range forecast. Storms continue to track into the Pacific Northwest in a normal year pattern.
> 
> Guess what.  All those climate models were WRONG.



You know i asked Old Fraud if he knew why we returned to a La Niña pattern and he still hasn't pony'ed up..


----------



## Crick (Jan 15, 2016)

Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?






In the context of *strong El Niño conditions since March-April 2015*, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niño events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (November-December)* MEI has dropped slightly (by 0.19) to +2.12, continuing at the 3rd highest ranking*, and about 0.3 sigma behind 1982 and 1997 for this season. The August-September 2015 value of +2.53 remains the third highest overall at any time of year since 1950. The evolution of the 2015 El Niño remains very similar to 1997, as monitored by the MEI, including a first peak in August-September and subsequent weakening during the remainder of the calendar year. In 1998, this was followed by a fairly strong rebound that peaked in late boreal winter 0.4 sigma higher than in Novemeber-December.
Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+2/-4) in this season gives us four 'analogues' already identified three months ago: 1965, 1972, 1982, and 1997, plus 1987 and 1991. Three of these six analogues evolved into La Niña events one year later (1973, '88, and '98), while two of them dropped back into ENSO-neutral conditions ('66 and '83), and one hung on to weak El Niño rankings one year later ('92). While the odds for La Niña a year from now are higher (50%) than climatological odds (30%), it is obviously not a guaranteed outcome. Meanwhile, *strong El Niño conditions (top 10% ranking) are very likely through January-February, while general El Niño rankings (top 30%) are the most likely outcome for the next six months*.
Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial Pacific, all the way from just west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies above +2C from about 90-170W, and even +3C anomalies within that 'warm tongue', a little less common than one month ago.
Earth System Research Laboratory          	 		: PSD 	         : (none)


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 15, 2016)

Crick said:


> Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


La Nina weather patterns bring drought conditions to the Southwest.
Exactly like the winter has been.  The climate models are DEAD WRONG.


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 15, 2016)

La Niña weather pattern continues.  The climate models were WRONG.

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) — The amount of rain in the San Francisco Bay Area in the 2015-16 rainfall season is less than same period last year and less than normal, National Weather Service
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




 officials said Sunday.

Santa Rosa received 13.37 inches of rain from Oct. 1 last year to 4 p.m. Sunday, while last season it received 18.55 inches. The normal amount of rainfall is 16.71 inches.

San Francisco received 9.45 inches so far this season, compared with 14.45 inches by Jan. 10 last season, weather service officials said. The normal amount is 10.3 inches.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 15, 2016)

Weatherman2020 said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?
> ...


You dumb fuck. The current El Nino is not a model, it is an observed phenomenon. Tell us about all of this in July. The predictions are based on percentages of past El Nino's. So the weather may happen a bit earlier, or a bit later. Or, with a much lower probability, may not happen at all. 

This is what is frustrating when communicating with people of very low scientific or mathematical background. They think they know everything, and show they know nothing at all. Grow up, use the tool in front of you, and actually learn something.


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 15, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Weatherman2020 said:
> 
> 
> > Crick said:
> ...


Man, you are one total moron.  El Niño is a condition.  The climate models predict weather patterns from that condition.

Predicted weather patterns that have turned out to be 100% WRONG.


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 15, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Weatherman2020 said:
> 
> 
> > Crick said:
> ...


And shitforbrains, the rainy season ends in 10 weeks, El Niño or not.


----------



## jc456 (Jan 15, 2016)

Crick said:


> Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


why have we had a polar vortex event and gearing up for another next week?  I have my trust the prediction of the polar vortex starting Sunday wayyyyyyyy ahead of your el nino.  So, which is it, is the polar vortex real or is the el nino?


----------



## jc456 (Jan 15, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Weatherman2020 said:
> 
> 
> > Crick said:
> ...


so basically you have no fkn idea when any of this el nino actually takes affect.  So in order to be correct you wait it out and then declare victory over a year later?  Is that what you're saying?  hahahahahahahahahahaaha


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jan 15, 2016)

Weatherman2020 said:


> Crick said:
> 
> 
> > Where the fuck do you see a La Nina "pattern"?
> ...



Crick doesn't understand the question, the system, or the causal relationships to climactic events and weather pattern change. The fact we have El Niño conditions in an ocean but a La Niña weather patterns over the land is a paradox they cant understand.

This paradox is why temps are falling fast and the El Niño is not effecting and upward trend to date. They are going to be real disappointed when the "expected warming" this year falls flat and their dream of ever upward temps doesn't materialize.

I predicted a no step increase last year and that prediction is coming to fruition..


----------



## Crick (Jan 16, 2016)

You predicted there'd be no el Nino and then repeatedly predicted the imminent end to the el Nino in progeess and you were consistently and perfectly WRONG ON EVERY SINGLE OCCASION. I see absolutely no reason to take your word for jack shit now or ever.


----------



## Skull Pilot (Jan 16, 2016)

A rain storm rather than a snow storm that would have dumped about a foot of snow

Thanks El Nino


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 16, 2016)

Crick said:


> You predicted there'd be no el Nino and then repeatedly predicted the imminent end to the el Nino in progeess and you were consistently and perfectly WRONG ON EVERY SINGLE OCCASION. I see absolutely no reason to take your word for jack shit now or ever.


Who is "you"?  El Niño formed over a year ago.
My point is that all of the climate predictions about the event were 100% wrong.  California annual rainfall remains well below average and only 10 weeks remain in the rainy season.

Climate models were WRONG.


----------



## Crick (Jan 16, 2016)

The "you" is the author of the immediately preceding post, Billy Bob.  The predictions under discussion here concern the el Nino itself.  The ENSO index does not make predictions for California or Australia or the Caribbean or anywhere else.  Billy Boy has been claiming this el Nino is going to disappear any minute now for the last six months, claimed his mail order meteorology certificate made him a superior expert to the PhDs at NOAA and made a complete fool of himself doing so.


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 16, 2016)

Crick said:


> The "you" is the author of the immediately preceding post, Billy Bob.  The predictions under discussion here concern the el Nino itself.  The ENSO index does not make predictions for California or Australia or the Caribbean or anywhere else.  Billy Boy has been claiming this el Nino is going to disappear any minute now for the last six months, claimed his mail order meteorology certificate made him a superior expert to the PhDs at NOAA and made a complete fool of himself doing so.


No one predicts an El Niño.  It's an observed condition.  Just as the OP shows in the first post, it's simply a recording of sea temperatures.


----------



## Crick (Jan 16, 2016)

Here is a link to the National Weather Service's Climate *Prediction *Center which puts out
Climate *Prediction *Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Whose primary product is an ENSO advisory that looks like this (highlights mine):

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE *PREDICTION *CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 14 January 2016 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory Synopsis: A strong El Niño is *expected *to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to *transition *to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer. A strong El Niño continued during December, with well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All weekly Niño indices decreased slightly from the previous month (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, while still well above average, weakened (Fig. 3) due to an upwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). Significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over much of the tropical Pacific. During the last week, another westerly wind burst occurred in the east-central Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained strongly negative. Also, convection remained strong over the central and east-central tropical Pacific, and suppressed over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño episode. Most models indicate that* a strong El Niño will weaken with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer* (Fig. 6). The *forecasters are in agreement with the model consensus*, though the exact timing of the transition is difficult to predict. A strong El Niño is *expected *to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to *transition *to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer (click CPC/IRI* consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period*). El Niño has already produced significant global impacts and is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday January 21st). The seasonal *outlooks *for January – March indicate an increased likelihood of above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States.* Above-average temperatures are favored* in the West and northern half of the country with below-average temperatures favored in the southern Plains and along the Gulf Coast. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). *Forecasts* are also updated monthly in the *Forecast* Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 February 2016. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov. Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service College Park, MD 20740

Billy Boy has been PREDICTING that this el Nino was going to immediately end each and every time he posted in this thread and each and every time he was WRONG.  If you don't want to believe me, simply flip back through this thread for Billy Boy's posts.  His errors are not difficult to spot.


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 16, 2016)

Crick said:


> Here is a link to the National Weather Service's Climate *Prediction *Center which puts out
> Climate *Prediction *Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
> 
> Whose primary product is an ENSO advisory that looks like this (highlights mine):
> ...


Like I said, they don't predict El Niño. They can toss out guesses later on what's going on, but they never say El Niño will begin to form 6 months from now.

And to my point, climate models are primitive tools equivilant to tossing darts blindfolded. The climate models got it completely wrong as to what El Niño will do.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 16, 2016)

First of all, NOAA did say six months before the El Nino started that there was a good chance that it would occur. And six months before it became a super El Nino, they also stated that there was a good chance it would appoach or exceed the 1997-1998 El Nino. So what you are claiming is a lie.

Second, they have been doing pretty well with their predictions concerning the effects of the El Nino. Some misses, sure. The whole prediction bit is based on probability from past events. So you are not going to hit 100%. However, they have done far, far better than fruitloops like you, jc, and Silly Billy.


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 16, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> First of all, NOAA did say six months before the El Nino started that there was a good chance that it would occur. And six months before it became a super El Nino, they also stated that there was a good chance it would appoach or exceed the 1997-1998 El Nino. So what you are claiming is a lie.
> 
> Second, they have been doing pretty well with their predictions concerning the effects of the El Nino. Some misses, sure. The whole prediction bit is based on probability from past events. So you are not going to hit 100%. However, they have done far, far better than fruitloops like you, jc, and Silly Billy.


Link or lie.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 16, 2016)

Look, you little liar, Crick gave you that link in post #850.


----------



## Weatherman2020 (Jan 16, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Look, you little liar, Crick gave you that link in post #850.


Oh, so 2 days ago, Jan 14, 2016 they predicted an El Niño. 

The level of stupidity of the Goreical sheep is mind boggling.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 16, 2016)

Weatherman2020 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Look, you little liar, Crick gave you that link in post #850.
> ...


No, you fucking asshole, that is the site where you can also get their previous predictions.


----------



## Crick (Jan 17, 2016)

Go to the link, choose ARCHIVE from their home page.  Pick your date.  Here is the first one I pulled up: May of 2014.  Its header reads:

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 May 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: *El Niño Watch*
Synopsis: *Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during summer*. ​You've got some balls (or a shortage of grey matter (or an ego that needs correcting)) calling yourself a Weatherman.


----------



## Skull Pilot (Jan 17, 2016)

My gas bill was less that 200 bucks last month

Thanks El Nino


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 17, 2016)

That is your imagination, Skull. Jc, Weatherman, and Silly Billy all said it cannot be happening, so it must be your imagination.


----------



## Skull Pilot (Jan 17, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> That is your imagination, Skull. Jc, Weatherman, and Silly Billy all said it cannot be happening, so it must be your imagination.



All right Rocks in the Head please find a quote where I denied the earth was warming slightly or that people didn't have an effect on the planet.

I'll wait


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 17, 2016)

Skull Pilot said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > That is your imagination, Skull. Jc, Weatherman, and Silly Billy all said it cannot be happening, so it must be your imagination.
> ...


Read it again, Skull. I didn't say that you said any of those things. I said, according to jc, Weatherman, and Silly Billy, that it could not possibly be warming at your place. Because the non-existant El Nino is having no affect at all according to them. Try to read with a little more comprehension.


----------



## jc456 (Jan 17, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Skull Pilot said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...


Minus one in Chicago this morning


----------



## jc456 (Jan 17, 2016)

Socks, when Chicago's climate  is included in the globe fantasy, perhaps you'll convince me. But Mother Nature keeps proving your fantasy wrong.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jan 17, 2016)

Once again Old Socks and Drip couldn't beat their way out of a wet paper bag.





If you watch the above animation the blob is now totally gone and the cold water is now taking over the warmer areas of regions 1-2, 3, 3-4 while region 4 is bordering on negative grounds.

We have a La Niña pattern becasue the waters driving the NH are now cold and the polar low is now dominating the US  region. Both the Atlantic and Pacific are now cold or going cold with the solar cycle cooling..

Even NOAA/Boulder Co is now commenting and admitting the fact there is no latent heat to drive a step up increase as the previous El Niño's have done.  They are fearing the next La Niña, already forming, could have the opposite effect and drive a step DOWN.. (Where have I heard that before?)

The next prediction coming out in about 2 weeks is going to be a huge hit to alarmists egos... The trends are now collapsing and most of the nation is BELOW AVERAGE (not above) and that is making some at NOAA crazy!


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 17, 2016)

Two weeks, eh, Silly Billy? OK, you get to drop the pants twice on that Monday.


----------



## jc456 (Jan 17, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Two weeks, eh, Silly Billy? OK, you get to drop the pants twice on that Monday.


Socks, why is there a polar vortex?


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 17, 2016)

jc456 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > Two weeks, eh, Silly Billy? OK, you get to drop the pants twice on that Monday.
> ...


What Happened to the Polar Vortex?

Here you go.


----------



## jc456 (Jan 17, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...


Where?


----------



## Crick (Jan 18, 2016)

Click the link in Old Rocks' post, embedded in the red text, reading "What happened to the Polar Vortex?" Then read the article to which your browser will take you.  They call this the World Wide Web.  It's pretty cool.


----------



## jc456 (Jan 18, 2016)

Crick said:


> Click the link in Old Rocks' post, embedded in the red text, reading "What happened to the Polar Vortex?" Then read the article to which your browser will take you.  They call this the World Wide Web.  It's pretty cool.


I did that and it took me back to December 2015.  I could have sworn when I woke up it was January 18, 2016, and actually winter.  so crickster where is the 2016 news on polar vortex? what a joy to see such failure from you all so consistently.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 19, 2016)

The latest weekly SST departures are:
 Niño 4 1.3ºC
 Niño 3.4 2.6ºC
 Niño 3 2.8ºC
 Niño 1+2 1.4ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

*2.6, slowly coming down, just as the scientists at NASA predicted. 2.6 is still in the super El Nino range.*


----------



## jc456 (Jan 19, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> The latest weekly SST departures are:
> Niño 4 1.3ºC
> Niño 3.4 2.6ºC
> Niño 3 2.8ºC
> ...


so, why do we continue to have the Polar Vortex dropping down in the US?  How can there be an el nino when the Pacific keeps driving that behavior?  You still haven't answered that question.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Jan 19, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Two weeks, eh, Silly Billy? OK, you get to drop the pants twice on that Monday.



It didn't even take two weeks... region 1-2 is now at threshold...





Note the three day averages indicated by hash marks..

Source


Now... I dont want to see your ugly ass.. Mann up and go play with yourself..


----------



## Crick (Jan 20, 2016)

Let's get this straight Billy Boy.  What are you predicting for two weeks from your post 864, Sunday, 17 Jan (31 Jan)?  From your text you seem to be claiming that we will be in a La Nina.  Is that right? Or are you claiming that the El Nino will be declared done?  You're the expert here, you tell us.  What's your incredibly informed opinion on this?


----------



## jc456 (Jan 20, 2016)

Crick said:


> Let's get this straight Billy Boy.  What are you predicting for two weeks from your post 864, Sunday, 17 Jan (31 Jan)?  From your text you seem to be claiming that we will be in a La Nina.  Is that right? Or are you claiming that the El Nino will be declared done?  You're the expert here, you tell us.  What's your incredibly informed opinion on this?


crick you never answered,

so, why do we continue to have the Polar Vortex dropping down in the US? How can there be an el nino when the Pacific keeps driving that behavior? You still haven't answered that question.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 20, 2016)

jc, you are a silly ass. Why should an El Nino in the Pacific prevent the jet stream from doing it's thing? Have you the faintest idea of what makes a polar vortex? And how it moves south.


----------



## jc456 (Jan 20, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> jc, you are a silly ass. Why should an El Nino in the Pacific prevent the jet stream from doing it's thing? Have you the faintest idea of what makes a polar vortex? And how it moves south.


yes I do, It is from conditions from a La Nina.


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 20, 2016)

*LOL Ever dependable to show the depths of your ignorance.*

What is a Polar Vortex?

"The polar vortex is not a recently discovered phenomenon; in fact, it has been talked about in the meteorological world for decades," AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
A polar vortex is a large pocket of very cold air, typically the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere, which sits over the polar region during the winter season.
The frigid air can find its way into the United States when the polar vortex is pushed farther south, occasionally reaching southern Canada and the northern Plains, Midwest and northeastern portions of the United States.


A large, powerful high pressure system originating in the Eastern or Western Pacific and stretching to the North Pole is required to displace the pocket of cold air.
"These high pressure systems can reach Alaska, but it is not typical to stretch all the way to the North Pole," according to AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
The vortex is capable of delivering subzero temperatures to the United States and Canada for several days at a time.
When the strong air from the Eastern or Western Pacific weakens and falls apart, the polar vortex will retreat into place near the North Pole.


----------



## jc456 (Jan 20, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> *LOL Ever dependable to show the depths of your ignorance.*
> 
> What is a Polar Vortex?
> 
> ...


and:

Pacific Ocean smackdown: El Niño vs. Polar Vortex?

"The warming, called an El Niño, is expected to lead to fewer Atlantic hurricanes and more rain next winter for drought-stricken California and southern states, and even a milder winter for the nation's frigid northern tier next year, meteorologists say."


----------



## Crick (Jan 20, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> jc, you are a silly ass. Why should an El Nino in the Pacific prevent the jet stream from doing it's thing? Have you the faintest idea of what makes a polar vortex? And how it moves south.





jc456 said:


> yes I do, It is from conditions from a La Nina.



Is your name Billy Bob?

But, do tell.  How does a La Nina cause the polar vortex?


----------



## Crick (Jan 20, 2016)

jc456 said:


> Pacific Ocean smackdown: El Niño vs. Polar Vortex?
> 
> "The warming, called an El Niño, is expected to lead to fewer Atlantic hurricanes and more rain next winter for drought-stricken California and southern states, and even a milder winter for the nation's frigid northern tier next year, meteorologists say."



You didn't read your article, did you.  You just went with the title.  I'm afraid it does not support your contention.  Care to have another shot at it?  How do La Nina conditions affect the polar vortex?


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jan 26, 2016)

One of the models don't cool it below nino throughout the year on the means.  Sure some ensembles do but if this occurs = 2016 probably beating 2015 in temperature.

Still the other model I shown is a good bit cooler so we will have to see how things progress.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Jan 26, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> The latest weekly SST departures are:
> Niño 4 1.3ºC
> Niño 3.4 2.6ºC
> Niño 3 2.8ºC
> ...




Seeing that the former highest 3.4 reading in recorded history was 2.7c in 1997...Well, that is quite the understatement! It is perfectly normal for nino's to start weakening at this time of year.


----------



## mamooth (Jan 26, 2016)

Surface temperatures will lag the ENSO state by about 3-6 months. Thus, even if the El Nino winds down around June, the surface temperatures stay hot for most of the year.

And when the El Nino finally does wind down, Billy will start crowing he predicted it, ignoring the fact that he's been dead wrong about it constantly for the past year. It's the even-a-stopped-clock-is-right-twice-a-day thing. If you predict something constantly for years running, odds are it will eventually happen, but you'd still be a dumbass.


----------



## jc456 (Jan 27, 2016)

Crick said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > jc, you are a silly ass. Why should an El Nino in the Pacific prevent the jet stream from doing it's thing? Have you the faintest idea of what makes a polar vortex? And how it moves south.
> ...





jc456 said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > *LOL Ever dependable to show the depths of your ignorance.*
> ...


----------



## jc456 (Jan 27, 2016)

Crick said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > Pacific Ocean smackdown: El Niño vs. Polar Vortex?
> ...


dude, I posted the piece that I referenced.  What the fk?  Mild winter?  hahahaahahahhaha


----------



## Old Rocks (Jan 29, 2016)

Matthew said:


> One of the models don't cool it below nino throughout the year on the means.  Sure some ensembles do but if this occurs = 2016 probably beating 2015 in temperature.
> 
> Still the other model I shown is a good bit cooler so we will have to see how things progress.


Interesting graph, Mathew. A month ago, only one model showing the El Nino starting again toward the middle of the year, now several do. Not something that we really want to happen.


----------



## Old Rocks (Feb 2, 2016)

Billy_Bob said:


> Once again Old Socks and Drip couldn't beat their way out of a wet paper bag.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Well, two weeks have passed, and here we are.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The latest weekly SST departures are:
 Niño 4 1.5ºC
 Niño 3.4 2.5ºC
 Niño 3 2.3ºC
 Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

The paddle gets double duty now.


----------



## Geaux4it (Feb 2, 2016)

I'm convinced this El Nino and the predicted events on the West Coast is a 'paper tiger'.

-Geaux


----------



## Old Rocks (Feb 2, 2016)

Since the El Nino is still at 2.5, We have at least Febuary, March, and April to expect results from this El Nino. Certainly here in Portland we have been seeing results. A record December for rain, and January near record, if not record, rainfalls. Plenty of snow in the mountains, a very good thing. We will see how much of a 'paper tiger' this El Nino is.


----------



## Geaux4it (Feb 2, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Since the El Nino is still at 2.5, We have at least Febuary, March, and April to expect results from this El Nino. Certainly here in Portland we have been seeing results. A record December for rain, and January near record, if not record, rainfalls. Plenty of snow in the mountains, a very good thing. We will see how much of a 'paper tiger' this El Nino is.



I should have clarified. 'Southern California'

-Geaux


----------



## jc456 (Feb 2, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Since the El Nino is still at 2.5, We have at least Febuary, March, and April to expect results from this El Nino. Certainly here in Portland we have been seeing results. A record December for rain, and January near record, if not record, rainfalls. Plenty of snow in the mountains, a very good thing. We will see how much of a 'paper tiger' this El Nino is.


You have a graph but not the weather! Funny!


----------



## Billy_Bob (Feb 4, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > Once again Old Socks and Drip couldn't beat their way out of a wet paper bag.
> ...






You Loose! Regions 1-2 are outside of El Niño territory...


----------



## Old Rocks (Feb 6, 2016)

The El Nino, or La Nina are defined by a deviation of 0.5. That chart show it still above one in that region.


----------



## Crick (Feb 7, 2016)

Billy Bob said:
			
		

> At this rate of decline the El Nino wont be present in just a few short weeks.


13 September 2015
Thread: Tracking the El Nino
Post #584


El Niño & La Niña (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) | NOAA Climate.gov
EL NIÑO ADVISORY, Accessed 07 February 2016, 22:11 EST
El Niño is underway & expected to continue
A strong El Niño currently underway is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer. This event has already produced significant global impacts, and it is likely to affect U.S. temperature and precipitation patterns during the upcoming months. The next official update will be on February 11.


----------



## ScienceRocks (Feb 8, 2016)

:Back up to 2.6

Here is the CPC text of the 2/8/16 update at +2.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf


----------



## jc456 (Feb 9, 2016)

Matthew said:


> :Back up to 2.6
> 
> Here is the CPC text of the 2/8/16 update at +2.6C.
> 
> http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf


dude, pretty pictures and all, but the weather isn't producing the el nino in the US.  The Polar air has dipped yet again here.  so, no el nino present so far.


----------



## Billy_Bob (Feb 10, 2016)

El Nino collapse appears to be underway



> The collapse of El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean has begun and it will be rather dramatic. The current strong El Nino event reached its peak intensity level in December 2015 and all indications suggest it will completely flip to La Nina conditions by later this year. One of the important consequences of the current strong El Nino event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was a spike in global temperatures. However, if recent history is any guide, expect global temperatures to drop sharply after La Nina conditions become well-established in the tropical Pacific Ocean – likely during 2017 and perhaps beyond. –Paul Dorian, Vencore Weather, 5 February 2016


http://thegwpf.us4.list-manage2.com...f2a364603849bbb505&id=73f06f09fe&e=c1a146df99

I guess Old Fraud and Crick are just gonna have to admit defeat..


----------



## Billy_Bob (Feb 10, 2016)

How convenient.. NOAA just changed their forecast...






Now their models show it falling like a rock..  I wonder who knew this would happen long ago?


----------



## Old Rocks (Feb 11, 2016)

God, No Credibility Billy, you are so silly. A month ago, there was only one model showing the El Nino actually returning after June, now there are a number of them. In fact, the median of the models now turns back El Nino territory after July. That is by the graph you posted, Silly Billy.


----------



## IanC (Feb 11, 2016)

The effects of an El Nino are lagged by 4-6 months. Expect the temps to continue to rise. 2016 will probably be the warmest year ever on all the global datasets, including satellites. The Pause will truly be busted.

At least until 2017 or 2018 when ENSO returns to normal or negative values. The warmers should enjoy it while it lasts.


----------



## jc456 (Feb 11, 2016)

IanC said:


> The effects of an El Nino are lagged by 4-6 months. Expect the temps to continue to rise. 2016 will probably be the warmest year ever on all the global datasets, including satellites. The Pause will truly be busted.
> 
> At least until 2017 or 2018 when ENSO returns to normal or negative values. The warmers should enjoy it while it lasts.


dude, if that was the case then that would be what should be happening today.  It was June right? It's February seven months out.  still below fkn freezing here, just like every fkn year in Chicago since I was born in the fifties.


----------



## jc456 (Feb 11, 2016)

jc456 said:


> IanC said:
> 
> 
> > The effects of an El Nino are lagged by 4-6 months. Expect the temps to continue to rise. 2016 will probably be the warmest year ever on all the global datasets, including satellites. The Pause will truly be busted.
> ...


BTW, the stats will back that up.


----------



## IanC (Feb 11, 2016)

jc456 said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > IanC said:
> ...




I don't really understand what point you're trying to make. Do you disagree with what I said?


----------



## jc456 (Feb 11, 2016)

IanC said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > jc456 said:
> ...


yeah I suppose.  You claimed it takes 4 to 6 months to see the effects of el nino right?  Well if the el nino peak was in June, then the affects should be here by now and they aren't.

Again, it is eleven degrees below average today in Chicago with a temp
~20 degrees F and wind chills near zero.


----------



## IanC (Feb 11, 2016)

jc456 said:


> IanC said:
> 
> 
> > jc456 said:
> ...




I said there was a lag. UAH has had record high months recently and it is likely to continue even though ENSO is going down. Expect 2016 to be very warm on the satellite record. Local conditions for Chicago are not indicative of global conditions overall. 

Just warning you of what to expect. The warmers will be crowing.


----------



## jc456 (Feb 11, 2016)

IanC said:


> jc456 said:
> 
> 
> > IanC said:
> ...


well being that I live here, it is my weather, and no weather patterns match this warmer shit at all.  I'm just telling like it is.  I doubt the Northeast is either. And Southern California won't see rainy weather any different than last year.


----------



## Old Rocks (Feb 17, 2016)

Hottest January in Satellite Temperature Record Leads Off 2016

Overall, the Northern Hemisphere temperature was +0.70 C (about 1.25 degrees Fahrenheit); the Southern Hemisphere was +0.39 C (about 0.70 degrees Fahrenheit); and the Tropics was +0.85 C (about 1.52 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the 30-year average for January.


In their notes, Christy and Spencer observed that, as was widely anticipated, "global temperatures in January set a record for the month, eclipsing January 1998 as the warmest January in the satellite temperature dataset. In a sense, that could mean 2016 is in a “race” to see if it will pass 1998 as the warmest year on record. In addition to a major El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event, 2016 has 17 years of warming to raise the base temperature from which the El Niño begins."

*Looks like Christy and Spencer are doing some ass covering. 17 years of warming. LOL*


----------



## ScienceRocks (Feb 18, 2016)




----------



## elektra (Feb 19, 2016)

*Hottest January since Robin Williams committed suicide!*


----------



## elektra (Feb 19, 2016)

February sets record low


----------



## Crick (Feb 19, 2016)

elektra said:


> *Hottest January since Robin Williams committed suicide!*


----------



## ScienceRocks (Feb 19, 2016)

elektra said:


> *Hottest January since Robin Williams committed suicide!*



Based on what data set?


----------



## elektra (Feb 19, 2016)

Matthew said:


> elektra said:
> 
> 
> > *Hottest January since Robin Williams committed suicide!*
> ...


*THE OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT TEMPERATURE GAUGE OUTSIDE OF OBAMA'S BEDROOM.*


----------



## elektra (Feb 19, 2016)

Crick said:


> elektra said:
> 
> 
> > *Hottest January since Robin Williams committed suicide!*


You are posting Anomalies, maybe you ought to go back and get the temperature, you do understand what an Anomaly is, yes?


----------



## Billy_Bob (Feb 19, 2016)

IanC said:


> The effects of an El Nino are lagged by 4-6 months. Expect the temps to continue to rise. 2016 will probably be the warmest year ever on all the global datasets, including satellites. The Pause will truly be busted.
> 
> At least until 2017 or 2018 when ENSO returns to normal or negative values. The warmers should enjoy it while it lasts.



Actually the lag is going to be very short according to a few of my friends over at NOAA - ESRL

The temp drop seen in this latest model indicates a rapid drop into La Niña conditions by late October THIS YEAR.. According to the graphs below by "MJJ" (May June July) we will be at zero anomaly. By ASO (August, September, October) entering the negative trend.. and by the end of the year, firmly in La Niña.  They might get but three months to cheer about global warming before their hopes are dashed into the ground.






ESRL                       : PSD              : Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CU CIRES Forecast: SST Anomaly Maps

I had just received this in a 'heads up' email only to find out that this prediction was already hitting the main stream airwaves and other sites like WUWT.

I wonder who here made this kind of prediction... Months ago...


----------



## Billy_Bob (Feb 19, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Hottest January in Satellite Temperature Record Leads Off 2016
> 
> Overall, the Northern Hemisphere temperature was +0.70 C (about 1.25 degrees Fahrenheit); the Southern Hemisphere was +0.39 C (about 0.70 degrees Fahrenheit); and the Tropics was +0.85 C (about 1.52 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the 30-year average for January.
> 
> ...



News Flash Old Crock...  There was no step increase with this El Niño event.. NO WARMING.. Until you decided to adjust up the temps to what you 'expected'.  That is why the pause was so demonized rather than looking as to why no warming had happened... YOU-ALL LIED rather than do real science.

Now that there has been no upward step increase and the coming La Niña is about to erase all the warming of the last 75 years, you all are getting real worried that the CO2 lie will be unable to be covered up.. And you are right to be worried! The lie will be exposed by nature herself...

Karma is a bitch.. And Mother Nature is her mother!


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## Old Rocks (Feb 20, 2016)

Why Silly Billy, I am absolutely sure that your latest predictions will have all the accuracy of your past predictions.


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## Billy_Bob (Feb 20, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Why Silly Billy, I am absolutely sure that your latest predictions will have all the accuracy of your past predictions.


And all you have is your teenage, 7th grade bantering.. with absolutely no empirical facts to back up anything you spew...


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## Crick (Feb 20, 2016)

The ENSO people's predictions have been right on the money since this thing first appeared.  YOUR predictions, on the other hand, have an absolutely perfect record of failure.  And it is the empirical evidence: what the el Nino has actually done and what you have posted here - that so informs us.


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## mamooth (Feb 20, 2016)

This El Nino has differed from previous El Ninos in that it hasn't brought any significant rain to Southern California.

A blocking high over the southwestern USA keeps pushing the moisture northwards. Why is that high so persistent? That's what everyone is trying to figure out.


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## Crick (Feb 20, 2016)

Billy_Bob said:


> I wonder who here made this kind of prediction... Months ago...



Not you.  If you want to claim otherwise, let' see the post.


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## Billy_Bob (Feb 23, 2016)

Well that one is gonna hurt... a -0.32 deg C drop in one week. At this rate it wont take but 3 more to be no more.. A zero Anomaly by end of may is looking very likely.


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## Old Rocks (Feb 23, 2016)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The latest weekly SST departures are:
 Niño 4 1.4ºC
 Niño 3.4 2.4ºC
 Niño 3 1.9ºC
 Niño 1+2 0.5ºC

*Still 2.4.*


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## ScienceRocks (Feb 27, 2016)

Huge pool of cold water workings way to the surface. Expect a much faster weakening to the el nino and possible nina next fall.


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## Billy_Bob (Feb 27, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
> 
> The latest weekly SST departures are:
> Niño 4 1.4ºC
> ...


Nope.. your data is over 6 weeks old.  Here is todays data:


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## Billy_Bob (Feb 27, 2016)

Region 1-2 is in free fall... it has already reached neutral levels..





The last week measurement was just +0.43 deg C


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## Old Rocks (Feb 27, 2016)

Billy_Bob said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> > http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
> ...


Silly ass, here is the link;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Note the date, 22 February, 2016.


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## Billy_Bob (Feb 28, 2016)

Old Rocks said:


> Billy_Bob said:
> 
> 
> > Old Rocks said:
> ...



I forgot that you like to use the heavily adjusted crap... created by models and not the real data.. Almost a full degree of discrepancy between the real data and your modeled crap..


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## Crick (Feb 28, 2016)

Your links are identical numbnuts.

Face it Billy.  You've spent the entire season attempting to show that you know better than the experts and all you've done is fail, fail, fail, fail and fail.  Have you no pride?  At some point you need to get a grip on reality.  You're NOT an ENSO expert.  You don't even seem to be an ENSO amateur.  Your predictions have been completely and absolutely WRONG 100% of the time.  How can you not realize what a fool this make you appear?

This as a kick ass el Nino.  It gave the world's temperatures a kick in the pants.  It's secondary effects were somewhat atypical. Hey, the world is changing.  Maybe it's due to the already elevated temperatures. Your attempt to convince us that no el Nino has ever taken place is simply pathetic.  Get a grip dude, get a grip.


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## Billy_Bob (Feb 28, 2016)

Crick said:


> Your links are identical numbnuts.
> 
> Face it Billy.  You've spent the entire season attempting to show that you know better than the experts and all you've done is fail, fail, fail, fail and fail.  Have you no pride?  At some point you need to get a grip on reality.  You're NOT an ENSO expert.  You don't even seem to be an ENSO amateur.  Your predictions have been completely and absolutely WRONG 100% of the time.  How can you not realize what a fool this make you appear?
> 
> This as a kick ass el Nino.  It gave the world's temperatures a kick in the pants.  It's secondary effects were somewhat atypical. Hey, the world is changing.  Maybe it's due to the already elevated temperatures. Your attempt to convince us that no el Nino has ever taken place is simply pathetic.  Get a grip dude, get a grip.



Again your clueless.. projecting your own failures on others, but that is what I have come to expect from you..


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## Crick (Feb 28, 2016)

As I have come to expect no supporting information, no expert opinions, no links, no studies, no articles - nothing but your uninformed opinions.


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