# 2016 GE: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field, Part VI



## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

*Hillary Clinton (D)*​


This thread title says "Part VI", because five other reports precede it, but not necessarily all of them here at this forum.

The report is VERY large and you can find it at my politics blog:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: 2016 GE: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field, Part VI

At that link to my pollitics blog, a link to an EXCEL TABLE that has every polling matchup bis dato, recorded and hyperlinked.

In report no. VI, you will see:

1.) the number of polls for Hillary vs. prospective GOP candidates, to-date, also by wins/losses/ties. *252 polls*.
2.) the number of matchups for Hillary vs. prospective GOP candidates, to-date. *861 matchups*.

Both of those data sets are also broken down into national polls/matchups and state polls/matchups.

3.) the number and names of all *33 *polling instititutions that have conducted polling for 2016 to-date.
4.) the number and names of all *24* prospective GOP candidates who have been polled, by state, divided into three tiers.

5.) A screenshot example of how the excel table looks and how to interpret the values correctly. LOTS of data is provided in the EXCEL TABLE, as I said, all of it sourced per hyperlink. The excel table also has FAV/UFAV numbers and most (but not all) DEM nomination numbers in addition to the matchups. Also, survey group size, type of voters, MoE, the usual but necessary stuff.

6.) An analysis based on 6 key points: the Quintifecta, the "Clinton 6 states", former Battlegrounds that are already showing penumbra for Hillary or moving toward the GOP, some "bastion" states, national polling and my "wish-list".

There are tables and maps also embedded in the report, for reference.

I quote from the beginning of the report:



> This report is NOT here to proclaim that Hillary is going to win, no matter what. This report IS continuing a baseline that I started to build 2 years ago. That being said, it shows amazing consistency in polling for the former First Lady of the USA, former Senator from the great state of New York and former Secretary of State of the USA. This report simply shows the numbers, ALL of the numbers. Until October of 2015, I will not be calculating any polling averages, unless of course an avalanche of polling starts in key states. Some Conservatives express displeasure when they see such a report, but they are being short-sighted: a baseline is only valuable when you see ALL of it, meaning, that should Hillary's fortunes change, we will be able to record that as well. Again, these are just the numbers, as they are right now.




And from the end Facit:



> *Facit:* it's Hillary's election to have, if she wants it. If she declares (and I am more than reasonably sure she will declare), then she is the prohibitive front runner both for her party's nomination and also against any and all comers from the GOP.
> 
> *Factors working against the GOP are* the fact that Obama literally cemented Virginia into the Democratic column by winning the state not just once, but twice, against all conventional wisdom, and current polling is showing this state to be a solidly blue state. This GOP is going to have to fight to regain this state, which means less time, money and resources for other states, like Ohio and Pennsylvania...*..If Hillary only wins* the states that were common DEM states between Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, then she is already at 290 EV (shown in the Clinton 6 link above, here is the link again). I see a real possibility for Hillary Clinton to go slightly over 400 EV in 2016. States like Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas, South Dakota and even Alaska could become battlegrounds. North Carolina WILL be a battleground.
> 
> *Those are the current polling statistics.* Update in May/June 2015.





What the report does not do is to discuss issues or their impact on any campaigns. It simply shows the numbers, and believe me, there are a whole lot of them.

Because a major poll from Pennyslvania should come out in the next days, it will be a good way to compare new data to this now very large baseline.

I encourage you to go read the *entire* report before commenting. Believe me, GOP statisticians are looking at these numbers just as hard as I or any other hard-core electoral buffs. Plenty of food for thought in the report.

-Stat


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## rightwinger (Jan 19, 2015)

Hillary can still be beaten

I think the public is tired of her. But that doesn't mean a Republican can beat her. 
Hillary represents the past, stale old politics
If Republicans run someone who breaks the mold and addresses the America of the future, they can win

But that doesn't sound very conservative


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

A good point to start an adult conversation, I would suggest, could be probing as to why I even take time to also analyse "bastion" states and not just the expected battlegrounds.

Or some questions or maybe even predictions from members about my so-called "wish list". But you gotta go to the link and read in order to know what I mean...


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

rightwinger said:


> Hillary can still be beaten
> 
> I think the public is tired of her. But that doesn't mean a Republican can beat her.
> Hillary represents the past, stale old politics
> ...




Sure, I'm not saying it can't happen. I am only presenting the numbers, ALL of them.

Go to the link.

And in honor of CrusaderFrank , please let me quote you in advance:

"Hillary Clinton is not going to be the DEM nominee."


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## JoeB131 (Jan 19, 2015)

Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.  

The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit.


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## rightwinger (Jan 19, 2015)

JoeB131 said:


> Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.
> 
> The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit.


I agree, Hillary needs Bill with her to light up a room

But if Republicans still plan to run against her with BENGHAZI, blowjobs and that she is a scary old hag they will get people to rally round her and lose by bigger margins than they lost to Obama


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## CrusaderFrank (Jan 19, 2015)

Statistikhengst said:


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Thank you, my Friend.

She looks really old in the OP.

Also, have you looked at HER cheekbones? She may have some Cherokee in her as well


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## jon_berzerk (Jan 19, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


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plus she may have rekindle her story of landing

in Bosnia under sniper fire

--LOL


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## Esmeralda (Jan 19, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


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She doesn't look as old as McCain looked when he ran.  It is apparently okay for a man running for president to look old, but not a woman.  Will the American public ever be mature enough to elect a female president?


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## Derideo_Te (Jan 19, 2015)

rightwinger said:


> Hillary can still be beaten
> 
> I think the public is tired of her. But that doesn't mean a Republican can beat her.
> Hillary represents the past, stale old politics
> ...



Yes, I agree, because Obama beat her by representing something different from the past, stale old politics.

There is a possibility that Rand Paul could be that "something different". He has been moving to the center and even reaching out to the left on the college level with his "libertarian idealism" and that is fertile ground for him because very few of those voters have the real life experience to know that it doesn't work.

And yes, the GOP establishment could opt to sell the "libertarian platform" since it closely matched to what they want as far as deregulation and the economy are concerned. It will come unglued on the social issues because genuine libertarianism means endorsing gay marriage, legalizing marijuana, amnesty for illegals, etc, etc. How they address that hurdle and keep the extreme right on board remains to be seen.

So the concept is fascinating and I agree that it is a possibility for 2016 but it will be a hard sell in the primaries.


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## gipper (Jan 19, 2015)

If Americans elect a Clinton or a Bush in 2016, they are much dumber than I ever believed.


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

rightwinger said:


> JoeB131 said:
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Which is exactly what the current numbers are showing. Hillary is doing considerably better in all the states where it really counts than Obama did in 2012.


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


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You are welcome, mon ami.

Old can also mean sage.

Besides, this dude likes cougars!!!



I said "cougars", not "cankles".

Did you actually read the data??


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## Derideo_Te (Jan 19, 2015)

JoeB131 said:


> Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.
> 
> The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit.



Hilary is going to become "America's Grandmother". There will be ads and pictures of her with her granddaughter and it will be a major selling point. That strategy turns around the GOP attack that she is "too old" and it negates her "lack of likability". Makes it really hard for the GOP to attack her personally too since it makes them look bad for "beating up granny".  Oh, and then there is the hypocrisy angle since plenty of presidents have been grandfathers.


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## SteadyMercury (Jan 19, 2015)

Derideo_Te said:


> There is a possibility that Rand Paul could be that "something different". He has been moving to the center


Yup he's no dummy, he's seen how refusing to soften your views for mainstream appeal worked out for Dad every four years... online straw poll stud, voting booth dud.

I'm still amazed that Romney is actually fritzing around the edges of this thing.


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## rightwinger (Jan 19, 2015)

Derideo_Te said:


> JoeB131 said:
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If Republicans run on how old and ugly she has become, the public will rally around her. Turn her into a victim, you lose

Republucans need to remind the public that they really don't like Hillary and run someone the public does like

But who do Republicans have that is likeable?


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## Derideo_Te (Jan 19, 2015)

SteadyMercury said:


> Derideo_Te said:
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That is because Republicans prefer him over Jeb and Christie according to the latest polls.


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## Derideo_Te (Jan 19, 2015)

rightwinger said:


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Excellent question because Romney was/is considerably less likable than Hilary. Christie's nasty side will come out and turn people off. Jeb probably has the smarts to be "likable" but he is too "liberal" and has a great deal of "baggage". Rand Paul still strikes me as being the most likely GOP candidate but he will have a hard time against Hilary in the debates. That will be where his "libertarian" positions will unravel under hard scrutiny.

Maybe Kasich can step up to the plate?


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## BULLDOG (Jan 19, 2015)

JoeB131 said:


> Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.
> 
> The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit.



Can you name one republican who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit?


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## rightwinger (Jan 19, 2015)

Derideo_Te said:


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Of the bunch, I see only Jeb capable of taking Florida from Hillary. If Hillary takes Florida, the election is over

Is Jeb likeable?  He lacks the personality of W but seems more intelligent. He is not a great speaker and doesn't inspire

But I still see him as the GOPs best shot


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## BULLDOG (Jan 19, 2015)

jon_berzerk said:


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She might, but you definitely need to come up with some new things to whine about. All you have now are old and silly, and never made much sense to start with.


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## JoeMoma (Jan 19, 2015)

jon_berzerk said:


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Being the presumed nominee so early could be Hillary's downfall.  I can see the media turn against her if a new darling on the left (such as Liz Warren) can win them over.  Then watch for the media to brand Hillary as being old and out of touch with the common folks.  I can just imagine the clip from her book tour being played over and over again with her saying how broke they were leaving the White House, having to come up with payments on their HOUSES (mansions).


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## rightwinger (Jan 19, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


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Republicans dusting off their 2008 Hillary playbook is pretty pathetic

Did I show you the latest photoshopped picture of Hillary?


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## SteadyMercury (Jan 19, 2015)

Rand Paul definitely has some quotes from his past that would get hammered pretty heavily, even if he has tried to disavow.

I think a lot of these guys who were mainly regional players like Jeb Bush, the voting public really doesn't know much about them. Guys like Walker were in news way more from making waves at a national news level.


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## rightwinger (Jan 19, 2015)

SteadyMercury said:


> Rand Paul definitely has some quotes from his past that would get hammered pretty heavily, even if he has tried to disavow.
> 
> I think a lot of these guys who were mainly regional players like Jeb Bush, the voting public really doesn't know much about them. Guys like Walker were in news way more from making waves at a national news level.



The press will be presenting Paul with scenarios that challenge his libertarian background. Civil rights, foreign policy, social programs and defense will be at the forefront


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## Derideo_Te (Jan 19, 2015)

rightwinger said:


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I see him as the establishment's choice of candidate but that won't play well with a great many TP folks who see the Bush's as warmongers and "borrow and spenders".


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## Mertex (Jan 19, 2015)

JoeB131 said:


> Hillary's biggest problem is still her lack of likeability.
> 
> *The GOP needs to nominate someone who is really charismatic, who hasn't said a lot of crazy shit*.



Good luck with finding someone on the right that fits that description.........


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## Mertex (Jan 19, 2015)

Derideo_Te said:


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I think Hillary is going to be our next President....


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

Derideo_Te said:


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Although this thread is really only about the polling for Clinton vs. names from the GOP field, I am also starting to pay attention to GOP nomination polling and seeing a pattern similar to but not the same as 2012 - a large field, until now undeclared, with polling values mostly up to 20%. Up till now, it's been pretty much a five way split, with no potential candidate having an AGGREGATE LEAD that would be substantial.  Of the five biggest names being bandied about (Christie, Paul, Bush, Cruz, Huckabee), Rand Paul has been the most consistent in the polling.  What are are seeing, I want to note again, is not unusual for the party out of power in the White House before the next election, either a re-election or an open-election. see: DEMS 72, DEMS 76, DEMS 88, GOP 96, GOP 2008, GOP 2012, just to name some.

And although the likelihood is very, very slim, the possibilty of a hung convention in July 2016 in Cleveland still exists. What happens if Rand Paul takes the Libertarian vote and splits most of the south and big sky states with Huckabee?  And Bush and Christie duke it out and split the NE and the Midwest states.

One more thing: Romney is currently up in a couple of state polls and one national poll, that I know (I am talking about GOP nomination polling), but he just threw out a trial ballon, quite obviously, by saying some of the things he has been saying. He is flavor of the month, just as happened with many GOPers in 2011 and 2012. Donald Trump led in two polls as well, once, back in 2011...

Now, Kasich and Walker could be interesting possibilities. A DEM can win the White House without Ohio (see: 1948, 1960). A Republlcan can not.


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

So, has anyone actually read the data at the link?


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## Derideo_Te (Jan 19, 2015)

Statistikhengst said:


> So, has anyone actually read the data at the link?



I did look at some of it but I haven't studied it in any detail yet.


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## rightwinger (Jan 19, 2015)

Statistikhengst said:


> So, has anyone actually read the data at the link?



Too early


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

rightwinger said:


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whutt?!?!?!?


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

Derideo_Te said:


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There will be a quiz at 10 and I bringing a very long stock with me....


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## rightwinger (Jan 19, 2015)

Statistikhengst said:


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At this point in the game, Hillary is one of the only ones with nationwide and worldwide recognition. She is a political superstar. 
Republicans need more seasoning before we can draw conclusions on their electability


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## Derideo_Te (Jan 19, 2015)

Statistikhengst said:


> a very long stock



Hmmm, what index is that long stock quoted on?


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## Derideo_Te (Jan 19, 2015)

rightwinger said:


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What kind of seasoning did you have in mind? 

Going to have to be really strong to cover the scent of corruption wafting from Drumthwacket these days.


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## rightwinger (Jan 19, 2015)

Derideo_Te said:


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I don't think Christie will do better with more visibility. 

The public knows little about Jeb, Walker and most others


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## CrusaderFrank (Jan 19, 2015)

Esmeralda said:


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Sarah Palin would make a phenomenal President


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## CrusaderFrank (Jan 19, 2015)

Statistikhengst said:


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In deja vu all over again! Shades of 07 when Hillary was inevitable and unbeatable


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## BULLDOG (Jan 19, 2015)

[QUOTE="CrusaderFrank, post: 10574643, member: 19448
Sarah Palin would make a phenomenal President[/QUOTE]

Thanks Crusader. I needed another Sig line, and that is perfect.


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

Derideo_Te said:


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The index of hard spankings.


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

Wait and see....


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> [QUOTE="CrusaderFrank, post: 10574643, member: 19448
> Sarah Palin would make a phenomenal President



Thanks Crusader. I needed another Sig line, and that is perfect.[/QUOTE]

It's interesting.


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## BULLDOG (Jan 19, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


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Whether 2007 or 2016 The republicans still don't have a chance of winning.


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## BULLDOG (Jan 19, 2015)

Statistikhengst said:


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It's interesting.[/QUOTE]


Interesting? Is that just a polite way of saying he is as dumb as shit?


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 19, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> Interesting? Is that just a polite way of saying he is as dumb as shit?



Nope. I meant that is is interesting, as in, impossible interesting.


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## Nyvin (Jan 19, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


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Back when she won the most votes in the primary, but Obama won due to technicalities.


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## rightwinger (Jan 19, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


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She was a two term president of the Wasilla PTA


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## jon_berzerk (Jan 19, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


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she is old and busted 

she surely is not going to fire up the youth base 

--LOL


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## jon_berzerk (Jan 19, 2015)

JoeMoma said:


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hopefully the country can do better 

then a hillary verses mitt or jeb scenario


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## BULLDOG (Jan 19, 2015)

jon_berzerk said:


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We will be electing a president, not a cute girlfriend. The requirements are not the same.


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## Vigilante (Jan 19, 2015)

So much to sink her boat...


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## CrusaderFrank (Jan 19, 2015)

Esmeralda said:


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McCain was a POW, what's Hillary's excuse?


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## jon_berzerk (Jan 19, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


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so what she is still *old and busted *

not appealing to the youth


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## BULLDOG (Jan 19, 2015)

jon_berzerk said:


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Underestimating the ability of the young to make judgments on things more complex than who has the perkiest tits. Another thing the right sucks at.


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## EatMorChikin (Jan 21, 2015)

I'm not a republican, I am a conservative. I will sometimes vote republican, but mainly to prevent commie progressives from winning and destroying this nation faster.

The republican party has morons behind it. They are going to push Romney through, handing it to Killary if she runs. They don't want fresh blood, they want to champion the same tired old establishment.

If I were them, I would make Allen West the face of the party, it would be funny for the morons calling conservatives racist than.


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## Nyvin (Jan 21, 2015)

EatMorChikin said:


> I'm not a republican, I am a conservative. I will sometimes vote republican, but mainly to prevent commie progressives from winning and destroying this nation faster.
> 
> The republican party has morons behind it. They are going to push Romney through, handing it to Killary if she runs. They don't want fresh blood, they want to champion the same tired old establishment.
> 
> If I were them, I would make Allen West the face of the party, it would be funny for the morons calling conservatives racist than.



Allen West would be a great idea.....go for it I say


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## BULLDOG (Jan 21, 2015)

Nyvin said:


> EatMorChikin said:
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On behalf of every liberal in the country "PLEASE RUN ALLEN WEST FOR PREASIDENT" please please please please please


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## EatMorChikin (Jan 21, 2015)

Nyvin said:


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Yes he would be, someone who was actually a leader of men. And puts border security atop his issues with this country. An ode to the day when strong people got elected in this country, and took no bs.


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## EatMorChikin (Jan 21, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


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I'm betting you don't know a damn thing about the man. You support a sissy girl president, West is a real man.


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## BULLDOG (Jan 21, 2015)

EatMorChikin said:


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I know he is an idiot.


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## EatMorChikin (Jan 21, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> I know he is an idiot.



My case in point!

You obviously know jack shit about Allen West. And I suppose you are an Obumble supporter? That wise dude who called our navy personal "corpse" men. HA!


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## BULLDOG (Jan 21, 2015)

EatMorChikin said:


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Are we talking about the same Allen west who was kicked out of the military, and later advocated censoring American news agencies?  That idiot?


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## EatMorChikin (Jan 21, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


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Resign or face court martial, for using interrogation tactics used for decades in this country. And I hardly view wiki leaks as media. He supports censoring for anyone leaking important classified information. He is the only one I have seen actually care about the border crisis, and put it as a top priority. That is not a left or right issue, that is an American issue as we all need jobs. But I suppose you would favor more progressives, the insane assholes who favor no borders at all. It would be great if any raghead could enter our country at any time!

And for the record: progressives and liberals are not the same thing. Liberals are mostly patriotic, progressives hate everything about America, and want her destroyed.


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## Nyvin (Jan 21, 2015)

EatMorChikin said:


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Progressives embrace changes from the status quo for the better of the public or environment.   

Liberals are against oppressive authority.


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 22, 2015)

Keeping a promise, based on this text from the OP:



> Because a major poll from *Pennyslvania* should come out in the next days, *it will be a good way to compare new data to this now very large baseline*.



And here it is:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_122925.pdf

_(The previous PPP poll from Pennsylvania was from June, 2014:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_PA_605.pdf)_

1,042 RV, MoE = +/-3.0  (Values from the older PPP poll in parentheses)

*Hillary Clinton (D): 50 *
Mitt Romney (R): 40 
margin: *Clinton (D) +10

Hillary Clinton (D): 49 (49)*
Chris Christie (R): 39 (39)
margin: *Clinton (D) +10*

*Hillary Clinton (D): 50 (52)*
Rand Paul (R): 39 (38)
margin: *Clinton (D) +11

Hillary Clinton (D): 49 (51)*
Jeb Bush (R): 38 (37)
margin: *Clinton (D) +11

Hillary Clinton (D): 51 *
Mike Huckabee (R): 39
margin:* Clinton (D) +12

Hillary Clinton (D): 51 *
Ben Carson (R): 37 
margin: *Clinton (D) +14*

*Hillary Clinton (D): 52 (51)*
Rick Santorum (R): 36 (40)
margin: *Clinton (D) +16
*
So, against 7 potential GOP challengers, 5 of whom were also polled last June, Hillary wins STARTING at +10 in Pennsylvania and goes as high as +16 in a state that has been a single-digit win state for 16 of the last 21 presidential cycles (all the way back to the year 1932), and mid-to-low single digit wins in 8 of those 16 single-digit wins. Here the exact stats:

1.) 1888: Bush 41 +2.32 (topline 50.70%)
2.) 1960: Kennedy +2.32 (topline 51.06%)
3.) 2004: Kerry +2.50
4.) 1976: Carter +2.66
5.) 1944: FDR +2.78
6.) 1968: Humphrey +3.57
7.) 1948: Dewey +4.01
8.) 2000: Gore +4.17
*----------------------------------------------------------
9.) 2012: Obama +5.38*
10.) 1932: Hoover +5.51
11.) 1952: Eisenhower +5.88
12.) 1940: FDR +6.89
13.) 1980: Reagan +7.11
14.) 1984: Reagan +7.35
15.) 1992: Clinton, B +9.02
16.) 1996: Clinton, B +9.20
*------------------------------------------------------------
17.) 2008: Obama +10.31*
18.) 1956: Eisenhower +13.19
19.) 1936: FDR +16.04
20.) 1972: Nixon +19.98
21.) 1964: LBJ +30.22

Were Hillary to win PA with +16, as against Santorum at present, her landslide would be in line with Eisenhowers landslide from 1956.  In 2008, Obama was the first to carry with state with with a double digit margin since 1972 and most polling in PA showed Obama in single digits.  Hillary's polling is starting WAY above that point.

If these numbers hold over the next 22 months, then Pennsylvania would not even be a battleground state in 2016.

BTW, in the PPP poll internals, the women's vote:

Clinton 53 / Christie 38, +15
Clinton 53 / Romney 37, +18
Clinton 54 / Bush, J 36, +18
Clinton 54 / Santorum 35, +19
Clinton 56 / Huckabee 36, +20
Clinton 55 / Paul 34, +21
Clinton 56 / Carson 34, +22

So, where she is winning the state by +10 to +16 in Pennsylvania (according to PPP at this time) she is tromping in the women's vote by +15 to +22.  That's probably the most telling statistic in all of this.


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## Conservative65 (Jan 22, 2015)

Statistikhengst said:


> Keeping a promise, based on this text from the OP:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 
That shows nothing more than the concept of getting a vagina in office.  You got your black and that ranked higher than reproductive organ.  Since you met that goal, all that's left is vagina.


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## Derideo_Te (Jan 22, 2015)

Conservative65 said:


> Statistikhengst said:
> 
> 
> > Keeping a promise, based on this text from the OP:
> ...



What about a Latino?

Or gays?

Or Asian-Americans?

How about a Native-American president?

Plenty of minorities still to go and with 8 years each that means racist AWG's like you don't stand a hope anymore.


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## Esmeralda (Jan 22, 2015)

Conservative65 said:


> Statistikhengst said:
> 
> 
> > Keeping a promise, based on this text from the OP:
> ...


What kind of sick asshole refers to women as vaginas?


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## Mac1958 (Jan 23, 2015)

.

Pretty interesting scenario overall.  Assuming Hillary runs, the 200 or so GOP candidates will beat the living shit out of each other for a year or so while she watches them do her work for her.  If she doesn't run (hard to believe), there might be a mad scramble on the Dem side if Warren is serious about staying out.

Not one dynamic leader in the litter.

.


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## Derideo_Te (Jan 23, 2015)

Mac1958 said:


> Not one dynamic leader in the litter.



A litter of runts?


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## Statistikhengst (Jan 23, 2015)

Conservative65 said:


> Statistikhengst said:
> 
> 
> > Keeping a promise, based on this text from the OP:
> ...



Oh, I am sensing a sudden change in the force within USMB!!

Now, back to polling, which is what this thread is about. A New Jersey Quinnipiac from yesterday also produced these results:


New Jersey NJ Poll - January 22 2015 - Clinton Christie Lead Primary Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Values in parentheses are from the former Quinnipiac poll, for purposes of comparison.
*
Hillary Clinton (D): 52 (50)*
Chris Christie (R): 39 (39)
margin: *Clinton (D) +13*

*Hillary Clinton (D): 53 (52)*
Mitt Romney (R): 38 (35)
margin: *Clinton (D) +15

Hillary Clinton (D): 53 (53)*
Jeb Bush (R): 37 (31)
margin: *Clinton (D) +16

Hillary Clinton (D): 54 (55)*
Rand Paul (R): 35 (31)
margin: *Clinton (D) +19

Hillary Clinton (D): 56*
Mike Huckabee (R): 33
margin:* Clinton (D) +23
*
So, in New Jersey, Chris Christie's home-state, Hillary is winning by between +13 and +23.

How do these values shape up with the last 22 presidential cycles in New Jersey?

2012: Obama +17.74% (strict constitutionalists, en garde!!) 
2008: Obama +15.53%
2004: Kerry +6.68%
2000: Gore +15.83%
1996: Clinton, B +17.86% (three-man race)
1992: Clinton, B +2.87% (three-man race)
1988: Bush 41 +13.64%
1984: Reagan +20.89%
1980: Reagan +13.42%
1976: Ford +2.16% (NJ was a major battleground in 1976)
1972: Nixon +24.80%
1968: Nixon +2.13% (three-man race)
1964: LBJ +31.75%
1960: Kennedy +0.80%
1956: Eisenhower +30.46%
1952: Eisenhower +14.83%
1948: Dewey +4.39%
1944: FDR +1.35%
1940: FDR +3.62%
1936: FDR +19.97%
1932: FDR +1.90%
1928: Hoover +19.98%

Of the last 22 cycles, going back to 1928 for New Jersey, 12 DEM wins, 10 GOP wins. Of the last 6 cycles, 4 of the six are at +15.5 or above for the Democrat. In this time, the only time a Democrat lost both in the PV and the EC (2004, Kerry), he only won NJ by single-digits. Hillary's numbers in New Jersey put her right up there with Clinton, B 1996, Gore 2000, and Obama 2008 and 2012.

Also, just a little historical footnote. Look at 1936, 1956, 1972, 1984, 1992 and 2012. In those years where a president was re-elected and won New Jersey both times,his margin went up the second time. New Jersey rewards winners the second time around. And in 2004, when Bush 43 won nationally but still lost New Jersey (making him the first Republican ever in history to have lost New Jersey twice), he still cut considerably into the Democratic margin. So, although New Jersey is in no way a bellwether, it is definitely a Blue-Wall state, the polling margins tell us alot about the national state of things, according to the saying "a rising tide lifts all boats".

Hillary is doing just fine in New Jersey.  If Christie cannot even get close to her in his home state, how can he win Pennsylvania (a major Clinton stronghold)? Ohio? LOL....


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## Conservative65 (Feb 2, 2015)

Esmeralda said:


> Conservative65 said:
> 
> 
> > Statistikhengst said:
> ...


 
I didn't refer to her as one.  I said far too many will vote for her because she has one and nothing else.


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## Conservative65 (Feb 2, 2015)

Derideo_Te said:


> Mac1958 said:
> 
> 
> > Not one dynamic leader in the litter.
> ...


 Better than the half breed that is the by product of an alcoholic, runaway sperm donor and a piece of white trash.


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## Statistikhengst (Feb 2, 2015)

Conservative65 said:


> Derideo_Te said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...




Ahhh, I see that conservatives are keeping it classy.


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## Old Rocks (Feb 4, 2015)

Conservative65 said:


> Derideo_Te said:
> 
> 
> > Mac1958 said:
> ...


LOL. My dear little corksmoker, note that Barack Obama is President of the United States of America, and you, dear turd, are nothing more than an anonymous flap-yapper on an internet board, same as the rest of us. I would say that 'half breed' has achieved far more in his life, thus far, than 1000 like you.


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## Statistikhengst (Feb 4, 2015)

Old Rocks said:


> Conservative65 said:
> 
> 
> > Derideo_Te said:
> ...


Yepp. Haters are such sad sacks.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 4, 2015)

jon_berzerk said:


> BULLDOG said:
> 
> 
> > jon_berzerk said:
> ...


Her hubby has a thing for 16 year olds


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## Statistikhengst (Feb 4, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> jon_berzerk said:
> 
> 
> > BULLDOG said:
> ...


Proof? Photos? Video? Audio? Eyewitness accounts?

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 4, 2015)

Can we test to see how Elvis riding on a unicorn does against the GOP field because that's far more likely than Hillary


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## Statistikhengst (Feb 4, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Can we test to see how Elvis riding on a unicorn does against the GOP field because that's far more likely than Hillary


I plan to quote that over the next 18 months.....

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 4, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> jon_berzerk said:
> 
> 
> > BULLDOG said:
> ...



Don't you worry. I'm sure the other Dem primary candidates will want to know why he took 30 trips to Lolita Island where his bff Epstein kept 16 year old sex slaves

Where was this imaginary standard of proof when Obama and Reid accused Romney of tax fraud


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## jon_berzerk (Feb 4, 2015)

that is different ya know 

the standard of proof of Rs is much lower if at all 

compared to Ds


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## Statistikhengst (Feb 4, 2015)

Oh, really? Do tell...


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## BULLDOG (Feb 4, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> jon_berzerk said:
> 
> 
> > BULLDOG said:
> ...



I guess that if that's all you got, you have to go with it. It's pretty weak  though.


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## BULLDOG (Feb 4, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
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> > jon_berzerk said:
> ...



I doubt that any viable Democratic candidate will do that. That kind of ridiculous unfounded claim is more along the line of what losers and republicans do.


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## Statistikhengst (Feb 4, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
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> > jon_berzerk said:
> ...




I always go easy on him. Judaism teaches me to have mercy on the weak.


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## BULLDOG (Feb 4, 2015)

Statistikhengst said:


> BULLDOG said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
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A gentle pat on the head usually is enough to make him wander off mumbling to himself, but if you actually listen to what he says, it can be very entertaining.


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 4, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
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> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



Any bets on who did the first Willie Horton ads or started the Obama Birther rumors?


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## BULLDOG (Feb 4, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> BULLDOG said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
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Hush Frank. Adults are talking now. Go play with your new Sarah Palin doll.


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 4, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > BULLDOG said:
> ...



Going to bookmark this for Hillary Concession Speech


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## BULLDOG (Feb 4, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> BULLDOG said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



That's nice. Now go play.


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 4, 2015)

Hillary Dem Primary concession will be the last time we see Bulldog posting on USMB


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## BULLDOG (Feb 4, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Hillary Dem Primary concession will be the last time we see Bulldog posting on USMB



And you know this how? Did God give you another vision?


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 4, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > Hillary Dem Primary concession will be the last time we see Bulldog posting on USMB
> ...



I know you, you're a fucking pussy and won't be able to face how wrong you were

You'll start some sock account, maybe you already have


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## BULLDOG (Feb 4, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> BULLDOG said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



You mean like the right wing did when Obama won.....TWICE?  I might lose interest in the right wing silliness I come here to laugh at at some point, but the possibility of any outcome of the next presidential primary  won't have anything to do with it.  For now Hillary is the best bet, but if someone better comes along, I'm good with that too.


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## jasonnfree (Feb 4, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > BULLDOG said:
> ...



Republicans are still mad at Obama for winning his elections instead of not being nominated by the supreme court like bush was.  How unamerican.


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## Mertex (Feb 5, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> BULLDOG said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



Concession speech?  I thought you were claiming she wasn't even going to run?  Now, she's conceding?  To whom?  Ted Cruz?


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 5, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > BULLDOG said:
> ...



I didn't make a single Romney wins bet in 2012, I knew Obama was getting reelected.

I'll take any bet you won't pussy out of that Hillary won't be the nominee


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## chikenwing (Feb 5, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > Hillary Dem Primary concession will be the last time we see Bulldog posting on USMB
> ...


 Most liky the same one you clowns use claiming a clinton victory befor she has even said she's running,desperation creeping in.


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## BULLDOG (Feb 5, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> BULLDOG said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



I'll bet that if someone better comes along, that person will get the nomination. For now Hillary looks like the best choice, but it's a long time till that choice needs to be made. Either way, it will take more than the current clowns from the GOP to beat her, or who ever else it might be.


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## BULLDOG (Feb 5, 2015)

chikenwing said:


> BULLDOG said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



I never said Hillary would get the nomination. Only that the GOP has no one to compete with her for the presidency if she does get the nomination..


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 5, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > BULLDOG said:
> ...



See, I know who I'm dealing with.


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 5, 2015)

Mertex said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > BULLDOG said:
> ...



To be clear: Hillary will not be the nominee for the Dems in 2016


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## BULLDOG (Feb 5, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> BULLDOG said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



The voices in your head tell you that?


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## sealybobo (Feb 5, 2015)

Statistikhengst said:


> *Hillary Clinton (D)*​
> 
> 
> This thread title says "Part VI", because five other reports precede it, but not necessarily all of them here at this forum.
> ...


Why do you think Romney dropped out?

But just like Tyson v Buster Douglas you never know until they get in the ring and actually fight


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## sealybobo (Feb 5, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Mertex said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...


Of course she will. Who will if not her?

I love your pic.


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## Mertex (Feb 5, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Mertex said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



To be clear......you're delusional.....you think she isn't going to run, but she will be giving a concession speech?  Maybe she'll *write one* for the Republican clown that runs against her....that would make more sense.


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## Vigilante (Feb 5, 2015)




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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 5, 2015)

Mertex said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > Mertex said:
> ...



No, moron.

She intends to run, and if she does ruin she has zero chance of getting the nomination.  Her concession speech was for the Democrat primary process


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 5, 2015)

sealybobo said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > Mertex said:
> ...



the pic is awesome and I confess to watching the whole video.

Amazing

Oh, right Hillary. I think Lizzy Cheekbones will be the nominee. Unlike Hillary, she never voted for Iraq and attended every 2 minute Hate against the rich


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## Mertex (Feb 5, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> sealybobo said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



That's how much you actually know about the Democratic party........actually, I already knew that you didn't know much, from the ditzy comments you usually make.  You're just hoping that Hillary doesn't run, because none of the clowns come close to her in votes......


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## Mertex (Feb 5, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Mertex said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...




You're the moron.  Maybe you should take Bulldog's advice....go play with your new Sarah Palin blowup doll.


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 5, 2015)

Mertex said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > sealybobo said:
> ...



No, Hillary will run, but she won't get the nomination


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## Mertex (Feb 5, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Mertex said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



Hillary will run, will get the nomination and make your party wish they had not run that candidate against her....


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## pepperpot (Feb 5, 2015)

Lets hope she doesn't run.  We don't need another corporatist and war hawk in the White House.  We can only hope Sanders or Warren runs.


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## BULLDOG (Feb 5, 2015)

pepperpot said:


> Lets hope she doesn't run.  We don't need another corporatist and war hawk in the White House.  We can only hope Sanders or Warren runs.



For now, I would be happy with any of the three,


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## pepperpot (Feb 5, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> pepperpot said:
> 
> 
> > Lets hope she doesn't run.  We don't need another corporatist and war hawk in the White House.  We can only hope Sanders or Warren runs.
> ...


I wouldn't because I fear Hillary would just put all the same group of people in her cabinet that Obama has done.  Look how many he recycled from Bush.  Plus she is so close with Wall Street it would be disastrous.


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## sealybobo (Feb 5, 2015)

Mertex said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > Mertex said:
> ...



I'd buy one of those.


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## sealybobo (Feb 5, 2015)

pepperpot said:


> BULLDOG said:
> 
> 
> > pepperpot said:
> ...



The Clinton's are for sure corporate Democrats but at least they aren't Republicans.  But yes NAFTA was signed by Clinton and so was the De regulations of the Media Act of 1997 that Bill signed and 7 mega corporations bought up all the media so it is no longer a watch dog over them.  They own it.  So we know the Clinton's will give the GOP what they want to get what they want.  I do hate that about her but she's the best candidate we have.

I think this is why Obama beat Hillary.  But its her's this time and we'll have someone better in 2024.


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## BULLDOG (Feb 5, 2015)

sealybobo said:


> Mertex said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



You wouldn't like it. I had one. It was just full of hot air,  and an embarrassment to have around.


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## sealybobo (Feb 5, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> sealybobo said:
> 
> 
> > Mertex said:
> ...



So you're saying its like having sex with the real thing?


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## BULLDOG (Feb 5, 2015)

sealybobo said:


> BULLDOG said:
> 
> 
> > sealybobo said:
> ...



Don't know. I took one look at that mouth and lost all interest. I'm guessing it would be about the same thing.


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## sealybobo (Feb 5, 2015)

BULLDOG said:


> sealybobo said:
> 
> 
> > BULLDOG said:
> ...



She has a moustache.


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## BULLDOG (Feb 5, 2015)

sealybobo said:


> BULLDOG said:
> 
> 
> > sealybobo said:
> ...


And a turkey neck.


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## Mertex (Feb 6, 2015)

pepperpot said:


> Lets hope she doesn't run.  We don't need another corporatist and war hawk in the White House.  We can only hope Sanders or Warren runs.




Bill Clinton was one of our best presidents.  Having Hillary as president means having him as the first dude, and is way better than anything the Republicans can offer, I love Bernie and Liz, but I don't think they have enough of a following to win..........besides, we need them where they are, making waves!


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## Mertex (Feb 6, 2015)

sealybobo said:


> Mertex said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...




I guess it would be scary, on Halloween.


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 6, 2015)

Mertex said:


> pepperpot said:
> 
> 
> > Lets hope she doesn't run.  We don't need another corporatist and war hawk in the White House.  We can only hope Sanders or Warren runs.
> ...



Bill Clinton was more of a Conservative than Dubya. Again, that's not saying much, but it's true


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## Mertex (Feb 7, 2015)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Mertex said:
> 
> 
> > pepperpot said:
> ...



Well, then, you won't mind voting for Hillary.....right?


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## Nyvin (Feb 7, 2015)

I see Hillary as someone who hates campaigning but loves to be in office once the election is over.    That's actually a good thing imo because it shows she doesn't like being fake.   Granted she'll still "have to" be fake to some extent during the campaign but at least it will be somewhat minimized.


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## CrusaderFrank (Feb 7, 2015)

Mertex said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > Mertex said:
> ...



If she ran against Jeb and was a puppet for Bill....fuck yeah


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## Mertex (Jul 1, 2016)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Mertex said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



Well, I guess you'll have to eat your words.......bwahahaha!


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## Mertex (Jul 1, 2016)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Mertex said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



I guess you turned out to be the moron after all.....I knew it all along.


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## CrusaderFrank (Jul 1, 2016)

Mertex said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> > Mertex said:
> ...



I promise not to gloat when Dems dump Hillary for Biden/Sanders


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## Mertex (Jul 1, 2016)

CrusaderFrank said:


> Mertex said:
> 
> 
> > CrusaderFrank said:
> ...



Bwahahaha.....I guess I'll get another chance to call you a moron.....because that's never going to happen.


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