# The Dow will test 27,000 by April 16th



## william the wie (Mar 12, 2018)

Two simple arguments

Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities 

With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..


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## ABikerSailor (Mar 12, 2018)

I think it will see 20,000 before it sees 27,000.  

The Dow dropped 157.13 points today to close at 25,178.61.  I've got a hunch investors are going to start selling when other countries start their own tariffs on American goods.

Harley Davidson is already saying that Trump's tariff plan is going to cost them around 30 million, and they are already saying they are going to layoff some jobs.


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## william the wie (Mar 12, 2018)

You are assuming rationality on the part of speculators and investors. All that matters is how much money comes into the market and how much leaves. With low margin rates and tax refunds a lot of money is going into the market.


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## saveliberty (Mar 12, 2018)

I think that is too short a time frame for 27000.  We have monthly inflation reported Tuesday and a likely interest rate hike next week.  I am more interested in what range we see trading.


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## MarathonMike (Mar 13, 2018)

I like the way you're thinking. The Tariff situation needs to be worked through with the EU and China. Honestly that concerns me more interest rates. I'm still standing pat with core holdings and trading.


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## frigidweirdo (Mar 13, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Two simple arguments
> 
> Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities
> 
> With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..



And the higher it goes, the harder it will fall.


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## william the wie (Mar 13, 2018)

Still on track with the inflation report.


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## Rambunctious (Mar 13, 2018)

Buy buy buy.....


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## william the wie (Mar 13, 2018)

Selling puts on stocks with good fundamentals is more of the heads I win, tails you lose kind of situation I like. But to each his own.


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## saveliberty (Mar 22, 2018)

Tariff Wars are the broad market driver for the moment.  Looks like we retest the lows, then we shall see.


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## ABikerSailor (Mar 22, 2018)

I wonder if the OP still thinks that the DOW is going to hit 27,000 by April 16, even after the 700 point drop that it took today? 

I have a really good hunch that China is going to start in with their threats.  They have already said that they are going to sanction goods from states that supported Trump in the election.

Still think Trump is "winning" and a "great negotiator"?


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## william the wie (Mar 22, 2018)

Everyone who thinks a 3% drop is a big deal with the EU not only investigating FaceBook but also threatening fines for violations of EU privacy laws. Then there is the US criminal investigation and a probable avalanche of civil suits plus starting in May there is the 3% EU internet sales tax given the market cap of FB today was a love tap.


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## william the wie (Mar 26, 2018)

Just a bump to make this thread easier to find come April 15


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## ABikerSailor (Mar 26, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Just a bump to make this thread easier to find come April 15



Good idea.  I don't think there is any way in hell that the DOW is going to hit the mark the OP said it will.


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## william the wie (Mar 26, 2018)

Reread the OP.
there is no mention of closing price.
the only close that matters is April 16th.
testing a mark has a different meaning than reaching the mark as in close counts.

Did you fail to read or fail to understand?

Check with Toro, Zander or other investors if you doubt me.


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## ABikerSailor (Mar 26, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Reread the OP.
> there is no mention of closing price.
> the only close that matters is April 16th.
> testing a mark has a different meaning than reaching the mark as in close counts.
> ...



"Testing" means that it hit it once during that day of trading, even if it didn't close there, or that it closes within 100 points of your mark. 

No, I don't think that the DOW is going to hit 26,900 by the 16th either.


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## william the wie (Mar 26, 2018)

Good we are on the same page.


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## BuckToothMoron (Mar 26, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Two simple arguments
> 
> Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities
> 
> With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..



Hold on- didn’t you post the 10 year would be like 6 or 7 by the end of the year? For what it’s worth, I think the Dow will see 17,000 before it sees 27,000.


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## ABikerSailor (Mar 26, 2018)

BuckToothMoron said:


> william the wie said:
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I don't think it's going to dip quite that low, but I do think that it will see 20,000 before it starts flirting with 27,000.

Yeah, it rose considerably today, but that is going to change when China starts with their sanctions.


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## BuckToothMoron (Mar 26, 2018)

ABikerSailor said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
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What will cause it, I haven’t a clue. I just know that we have had anemic growth for since 2008 yet the market has surged due to QE and low interest rate policies from the Fed. All that will have to be undone by the market before valuations can be normalized.


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## william the wie (Mar 26, 2018)

BuckToothMoron said:


> william the wie said:
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at least close enough  to right on the 10 year T. My errors, if such they be, was not paying enough attention to the Far East:
1.  I had no reason to believe that Abe would blow himself out of the water quite as thoroughly as he has.

2. Nor did I realize that without Abe that there was zero chance of Trump selling Japan anti-missile defenses.

3. I strongly suspected that selling defensive weapons to Japan was giving Trump great leverage in negotiating with North Korea and China, hopefully it was not the only lever.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Mar 27, 2018)

BuckToothMoron said:


> william the wie said:
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I think he said the inflation rate and the 10-year are both going to hit double digits.


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## BuckToothMoron (Mar 28, 2018)

Toddsterpatriot said:


> BuckToothMoron said:
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Here is what he said- he called for the 10 year rate to triple by Election Day. It really struck me that somebody as clearly sharp as William would make such a bold and near impossible prediction. 

2018#1



Offline
*william the wieGold Member*

Me, I am guessing that wage push inflation and real GDP growth combined will take the 10 year treasury interest rate from yesterday's 2.63% to something like 7.6% by election day and drop PEs by about 2/3s for dividend stocks while earnings and earnings growth go up. Any guesses on multiples for utilities?


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## william the wie (Mar 28, 2018)

BuckToothMoron said:


> Toddsterpatriot said:
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I took a guesstimate on the speed of capital and employment flight from the Blue wall. That is in the groove. I did not anticipate a black swan anywhere near the size of the Abe implosion. Japan and other countries in Westpac have a perceived need to buy lots of weapons to keep China from reestablishing its empire.


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## Toddsterpatriot (Mar 28, 2018)

BuckToothMoron said:


> Toddsterpatriot said:
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I can't see the link you tried to post.

_Then there is another problem, there is effectively no leverage limit on bonds. With TIPS if we have 5% wage inflation and 5% GDP growth the ten year treasury will yield 10.25% nominal interest and the margin rate will be something like 9-10% depending on demand for CDs. 

CDZ - How Fast and Hard a stop in the Real Estate Market?

_


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## MarathonMike (Mar 28, 2018)

It would be boring if we all thought about the market and external factors  the same way.


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## william the wie (Mar 28, 2018)

MarathonMike said:


> It would be boring if we all thought about the market and external factors  the same way.



And much less profitable too.


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## ABikerSailor (Apr 24, 2018)

Well, the OP said that the Dow would be testing 27,000 by April 16th.

Today is April 24th,  and the Dow has dropped to 23,957 and still dropping.

Looks like the OP's prediction was wrong.


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## ABikerSailor (Apr 24, 2018)

I'm gonna bump this thread to see if anyone still thinks the DOW is capable of hitting 27,000 anytime soon.

It's already dropped 519 points so far today (Tuesday, April 24th, 2018).


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## Mr Natural (Apr 24, 2018)

Not today it won't.


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## william the wie (Apr 24, 2018)

Obviously it was wrong.


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## ABikerSailor (Apr 24, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Obviously it was wrong.



I'm guessing that the stock market will see 20,000 before it starts to look at 27,000.


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## deanrd (Apr 24, 2018)

ABikerSailor said:


> Well, the OP said that the Dow would be testing 27,000 by April 16th.
> 
> Today is April 24th,  and the Dow has dropped to 23,957 and still dropping.
> 
> Looks like the OP's prediction was wrong.


It ticked slightly up just before it closed to 24,024.

It was over 20,000 on Trump's first day in office.

It was around 7,000 on the day Obama took office.

Mmmmm.

Looks like the Obama bump may be ending.  

What will tariffs and tax cuts for billionaires and ending trade agreements do to the stock market?  I suspect nothing good.


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## ABikerSailor (Apr 24, 2018)

You know, I'm still wondering what caused the stock market to drop so sharply today.  Trump hasn't had much chance to say something stupid on twitter today because he's busy showing the French president around.


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## deanrd (Apr 24, 2018)

ABikerSailor said:


> You know, I'm still wondering what caused the stock market to drop so sharply today.  Trump hasn't had much chance to say something stupid on twitter today because he's busy showing the French president around.


To me, the body language of the French President looks like he cringes every time Trump looks at him.


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## ABikerSailor (Apr 24, 2018)

deanrd said:


> ABikerSailor said:
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> > You know, I'm still wondering what caused the stock market to drop so sharply today.  Trump hasn't had much chance to say something stupid on twitter today because he's busy showing the French president around.
> ...



You must have watched a different news conference than what I saw today.  They were positively bro like with each other.  Macron and Trump couldn't stop touching each other.


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## otto105 (May 22, 2018)

ABikerSailor said:


> deanrd said:
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Gay


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## ABikerSailor (May 23, 2018)

Still below 25,000, and today is 23 May, 2018.


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## Camp (May 23, 2018)

ABikerSailor said:


> Still below 25,000, and today is 23 May, 2018.


Yes, but gas is going up and reaching the highest prices in a long time. And milk has reached $6.00 a gallon.


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## ABikerSailor (May 23, 2018)

Camp said:


> ABikerSailor said:
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WTF does that have to do with the subject of this thread?  The OP had stated that the DOW would be pushing 27,000 by the 16th of last month.  What does the price of gas and milk have to do with anything?


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## Camp (May 23, 2018)

ABikerSailor said:


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It was meant to put the importance of the DOW in perspective. The DOW has little to do with the economic conditions of average Americans when inflation of food and fuel is skyrocketing. And fuel and food are not used or included in calculating the national inflation rate.


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## ABikerSailor (May 23, 2018)

Camp said:


> ABikerSailor said:
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Apparently you didn't read the thread.  The OP was claiming that because Trump is so great, that the Dow was going to be testing 27,000 by April 16th.  And, we can clearly see that it hasn't.  It may have gone up and been testing 27,000 if Trump hadn't done all that trade crap with China.


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## Camp (May 23, 2018)

ABikerSailor said:


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I sometime find myself on the wrong side of the police. I guess I have found myself on the wrong side of the thread police.


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## Toddsterpatriot (May 23, 2018)

Camp said:


> ABikerSailor said:
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> > Still below 25,000, and today is 23 May, 2018.
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* And milk has reached $6.00 a gallon. *

What do you drink, unicorn milk?


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## Toddsterpatriot (May 23, 2018)

Camp said:


> ABikerSailor said:
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*inflation of food and fuel is skyrocketing.*

How much, over the last year?

* And fuel and food are not used or included in calculating the national inflation rate.*

Of course they are.

*2. How is the CPI market basket determined?*
_The CPI market basket is developed from detailed expenditure information provided by families and individuals on what they actually bought. There is a time lag between the expenditure survey and its use in the CPI. For example, CPI data in 2016 and 2017 was based on data collected from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys for 2013 and 2014. In each of those years, about 24,000 consumers from around the country provided information each quarter on their spending habits in the interview survey. To collect information on frequently purchased items, such as food and personal care products, another 12,000 consumers in each of these years kept diaries listing everything they bought during a 2-week period._

_Over the 2 year period, then, expenditure information came from approximately 24,000 weekly diaries and 48,000 quarterly interviews used to determine the importance, or weight, of the item categories in the CPI index structure.

*11. How are CPI prices collected and reviewed?*
BLS data collectors visit (in person or on the web) or call thousands of retail stores, service establishments, rental units, and doctors' offices, all over the United States to obtain information on the prices of the thousands of items used to track and measure price changes in the CPI. We record the prices of about 80,000 items each month, representing a scientifically selected sample of the prices paid by consumers for goods and services purchased.

During each call or visit, the data collector collects price data on a specific good or service that was precisely defined during an earlier visit. If the selected item is no longer available, or if there have been changes in the quality or quantity (for example, a 64-ounce container has been replaced by a 59-ounce container) of the good or service since the last time prices were collected, a new item is selected or the quality change in the current item is recorded.

Prices used to compute the CPI are collected during the entire month. CPI data is published monthly, with the index value representing an estimate of the price level for the month as a whole, rather than a specific date. Since certain prices, particular gasoline, might move sharply within a month, it is useful to understand the timing of price collection. A month is divided into three pricing periods, each period corresponding to roughly the first ten days, second ten days, or third ten days of the month.
_

Consumer Price Index  Frequently Asked Questions :  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


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## Muhammed (May 27, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Two simple arguments
> 
> Because the ten year treasury yield went down to 2.87% today at auction, all investment discounting techniques will also see the numerator stay more or less the same while the denominator shrinks. That in turn raises the value of equities
> 
> With total after tax wages going up for the nation as a whole more money will be fed into retirement accounts but some of that will be last minute additions more money in the market also means higher stock and bond prices..


Fuck you, dumbass.

Suck my dick some more.


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## Muhammed (May 27, 2018)

william the wie said:


> Just a bump to make this thread easier to find come April 15


OUTCH!


SUCKS TO BE YOU!


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