# What will the effect of the China crash be on the US?



## william the wie

The stock, bond and real estate crashes in China are building momentum and the POBC will eventually run out of gimmicks to keep GDP growth numbers positive. I have no way of predicting when that will happen.
Therefore trying to figure out which piece of straw will break the Camel's back or when strikes me as pointless. Instead I have a simpler question:

Will repatriation of Chinese capital to take advantage of bargains or increased capital flight to safety be the bigger flow at first?

We will see some of each and since upto 200 trillion will be in flux tidal waves and riptides will be common. I will therefore stick to my usual strategy of positive cash flow from low beta issues to pay for index straddles. That puts me in position to profit while not losing my ass.


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## Moonglow

The Chinese will need to 
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





 ...


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## Treeshepherd

william the wie said:


> The stock, bond and real estate crashes in China are building momentum and the POBC will eventually run out of gimmicks to keep GDP growth numbers positive. I have no way of predicting when that will happen.
> Therefore trying to figure out *which piece of straw will break the Camel's back* or when strikes me as pointless. Instead I have a simpler question:
> 
> Will repatriation of Chinese capital to take advantage of bargains or increased capital flight to safety be the bigger flow at first?
> 
> We will see some of each and since upto 200 trillion will be in flux tidal waves and riptides will be common. I will therefore stick to my usual strategy of positive cash flow from low beta issues to pay for index straddles. That puts me in position to profit while not losing my ass.



The piece of rice straw that breaks the panda's back will be the return of tankman, so to speak;





_"Will repatriation of Chinese capital to take advantage of bargains or *increased capital flight to safety* be the bigger flow at first?"_

I'm pretty sure the Chinese aren't allowed to invest in the US stock markets, so that's not an option. However, they can buy property here. The wealthy Chinese are doing just that. The poor don't have that option, and the median income in China is way less than Mexico. 

China is a powder keg. I've been saying that for a while. The fuse is long, but it's already sparking.


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## william the wie

Quite true and it is one of those things everyone knows and forgets about. China has been on implosion watch since 2004 if I remember correctly publication date for "The Coming Crash in China" I forget if real estate was part of the title but Chang dates the entry into real estate fantasy land as sometime in the mid 1990s. I gave up on trying to keep up with that after the ghost cities hit double digits and plywood shelters under overpasses started to be counted as subsidized housing for the poor. There is or at least was a boatload of free news shows about that on hulu.


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## Treeshepherd

> The main concern for stock investors was the precipitous 8.5 percentage point fall on the Shanghai market overnight, the biggest one-day decline since February 2007. It was the latest big drop in the Chinese stock market, which has slumped since early June.
> 
> Yahoo Finance



The obvious effect of China's woes is in the price of commodities. Gold, silver, platinum, copper, soybeans, wheat and coffee are all close to 52-week lows. 

Every increase in oil prices sets up a new fall. And, China signed the long term natural gas deal with Russia. Lack of expected Chinese demand within the global fuel basket has had an effect on US markets-- energy is the worst performing sector in the S&P this year.


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## CrusaderFrank

Where's rdean, I thought China was committing billions to prevent this from happeneing


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## william the wie

CrusaderFrank said:


> Where's rdean, I thought China was committing billions to prevent this from happeneing


 They are but they are still approaching their Minsky moment.


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## B. Kidd

Ho Lee Fuk!


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## william the wie

Well it looks like the US and especially the EU have been hit hard by the fallout from China.


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## Treeshepherd

EU has been hit hard by the fall of the EU. 

One day the definition of 'bubble' will be reduced to a single word: China. 

The US stands to gain, in the long run. It's all relative, baby.


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## HaShev

Huge 1 day drops are obviously hitting our markets but eventually all that money pulling out will find our good valued over sold stocks hitting new lows. This will eventually pour money into our markets especially into the last quarter.


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## william the wie

Treeshepherd said:


> EU has been hit hard by the fall of the EU.
> 
> One day the definition of 'bubble' will be reduced to a single word: China.
> 
> The US stands to gain, in the long run. It's all relative, baby.





Treeshepherd said:


> EU has been hit hard by the fall of the EU.
> 
> One day the definition of 'bubble' will be reduced to a single word: China.
> 
> The US stands to gain, in the long run. It's all relative, baby.



However in the short run we got problems


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## william the wie

HaShev said:


> Huge 1 day drops are obviously hitting our markets but eventually all that money pulling out will find our good valued over sold stocks hitting new lows. This will eventually pour money into our markets especially into the last quarter.


I think the influx of safe haven capital is probably larger than your implicit estimate. US X-M sucks because of the strong dollar. We are heading for a crash because eventually the dollar will run out of room to appreciate and all of that money will go home.


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## HaShev

Commodities generally rise when the dollar comes back down and those are the companies at new lows.
Canadien mutual funds and etfs and Brazil ones do well on rising commodities as well.

It's hard to picture some of these stocks lower, they are already crashed some with amazing dividends and at the best entry point of their reverse head and shoulder.    You don't wait till the shoulder shows if you can spot them you buy at the head to mid head on the way back up.  If the stock retests the lows and breaks then you guessed wrong and ditch it.


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## Politico

CrusaderFrank said:


> Where's rdean, I thought China was committing billions to prevent this from happeneing


I wondered that myself lol.


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## william the wie

Politico said:


> CrusaderFrank said:
> 
> 
> 
> Where's rdean, I thought China was committing billions to prevent this from happeneing
> 
> 
> 
> I wondered that myself lol.
Click to expand...

 Actually China is committing low trillions to prevent this from happening.


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## Treeshepherd

william the wie said:


> Actually China is committing low trillions to prevent this from happening.



China just freezes trading when things go bad. If you've invested in a suspended IPO, you can't sell. You just have to watch all your money go up in smoke. 

The low trillions are in yuan (for the stabilization fund). Stock buy-backs are being encouraged. 



> "There has never been a single instance of China triggering a U.S. bear market," Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors said in a note Tuesday. He pointed out that the Shanghai Composite spends 63 percent of months in a bear market since 1990 while the U.S. is in a bull market 81 percent of the time.


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## william the wie

Actually now it is in dollars @4 trillion and for extremely good reason. The official banks in China are with extremely few exceptions government owned, government operated and run by CCP members in all decision making slots. The only scapegoats available are loyal party members.


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## Treeshepherd

Over 40% of Brazil's exports go to China. Brazil is another tanking economy in the news. 

The entire world is in quantitative easing mode, seemingly. Every other central bank is attempting to juice their respective economies, which makes me think it's unlikely that the dollar index is going to fall.


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## william the wie

Treeshepherd said:


> Over 40% of Brazil's exports go to China. Brazil is another tanking economy in the news.
> 
> The entire world is in quantitative easing mode, seemingly. Every other central bank is attempting to juice their respective economies, which makes me think it's unlikely that the dollar index is going to fall.


Actually most of the world is having real problems with deflation and inflation adjusted populations. Aging populations, innovation, automation and the rest of the drivers such as overleveraged consumers being unable to buy or homeowners unable to sell their property to move to where the jobs all interact.


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## Treeshepherd

william the wie said:


> Treeshepherd said:
> 
> 
> 
> Over 40% of Brazil's exports go to China. Brazil is another tanking economy in the news.
> 
> The entire world is in quantitative easing mode, seemingly. Every other central bank is attempting to juice their respective economies, which makes me think it's unlikely that the dollar index is going to fall.
> 
> 
> 
> Actually most of the world is having real problems with deflation and inflation adjusted populations. Aging populations, innovation, automation and the rest of the drivers such as overleveraged consumers being unable to buy or homeowners unable to sell their property to move to where the jobs all interact.
Click to expand...


It's a global liquidity crunch. China is doing a massive liquidity injection. That could make China a smart play for investors if the effect is the same as the QE and stimulus was for US equities after 2009. 



> The note, by Alain Bokobza, head of global asset allocation, added: “We don’t see why the PBoC should wait any longer before taking decisive action. This is not yet the economic consensus, but it should become so. Don’t be shy of aggressively buying China equities the day the BPoC effectively announces huge liquidity injections, whatever the means they decide to use – and add to the mix proxies in commodities, commodity-currencies and equity sectors linked to commodities.”
> 
> Credit Suisse analysts said in a separate note Thursday that they believed the “political will to take outsized policy actions in Beijing today is stronger than that seen in Washington in early September 2008.”
> 
> “When a central bank says ‘whatever it takes,’ we think the market should listen,” they added.
> 
> Thursday, the Shanghai Composite rose 5.8% to 3709.33 while the smaller Shenzhen market rose 3.8%.


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## william the wie

I won't try this for every sector but China's major problem is that it will eventually have to writedown 20-40 T in domestic infrastructure, mostly housing, and who knows how much in overseas investment mostly to secure raw materials for its exports machine. The value of those commodities especially oil will continue to drop because most of the marginal cost of shale oil and gas is debt service with the second biggest fraction being transport costs. Between bankruptcies and pipeline building energy costs could drop to less than $20/bbl.

China has bought with infrastructure a few decades of oil and gas imports at $40-100/bbl. (Their construction of more land in the South China Sea looks like $60+/bbl oil to me but that is just my guess.) This clever pre-payment to avoid price increases will backfire for decades to come.


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## DarkFury

william the wie said:


> I won't try this for every sector but China's major problem is that it will eventually have to writedown 20-40 T in domestic infrastructure, mostly housing, and who knows how much in overseas investment mostly to secure raw materials for its exports machine. The value of those commodities especially oil will continue to drop because most of the marginal cost of shale oil and gas is debt service with the second biggest fraction being transport costs. Between bankruptcies and pipeline building energy costs could drop to less than $20/bbl.
> 
> China has bought with infrastructure a few decades of oil and gas imports at $40-100/bbl. (Their construction of more land in the South China Sea looks like $60+/bbl oil to me but that is just my guess.) This clever pre-payment to avoid price increases will backfire for decades to come.


*Interesting take. I thought China was using it's interest payments it gets on building itself.*


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## william the wie

They were but latest reports indicate a shrinkage of reserves. I haven't run the numbers but the Shanghai panic indicates serious problem. I'm not sure I could run the numbers but China has cancelled a lot of contracts this year.


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## Mikeoxenormous

Stocks are a disaster waiting to happen Stockman


> Stockman, whose past claims have yet to come to fruition, still believes that the excessive monetary policy from central banks around the world has created a "debt supernova," and all the signs point to "the end of the central bank enabled bubble," which could cause a worldwide recession.


 I must admit that LIBERALISM does one thing great.  It ruins what ever it touches.  Detroit, Greece, San Bernardino, Puerto Rico, Illinois, California, are all going bankrupt, and just like the old USSR, eventually liberals run out of other peoples money.  Liberalism is all about equality, but to achieve this through liberalism, everyone must be equally poor and equally miserable, unless you are a liberal elite like Warren Buffet(who pays less taxes than his secretary), Bill Gates, Bill Clinton and his wife, Al Gore, and Barack Hussein Obama, who have the millions and billions.


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## william the wie

Two one offs this week and PBOC pinkie swears it won't happen a second time,make that a third time.


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## CoachWitch

It's recent currency devaluation is said to be turning the jobs scenario little worse..
Yuan and you How China s devalued currency affects U.S. consumers


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## william the wie

CoachWitch said:


> It's recent currency devaluation is said to be turning the jobs scenario little worse..
> Yuan and you How China s devalued currency affects U.S. consumers


Not so much disagreeing with your source as pointing out that this is a much more complex problem than the short-run primary effects that your source covered and definitely stayed with. That's well and good but Chinese capital flight and emigration numbers are unpredictable and likely to be a lot more important in the not too distant future. That could lead to financial/political collapse in China, which is a much bigger deal.


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## Bill Angel

The weakening Chinese currency is expected to hurt exports from the USA to China.
For example see the article Weakening Chinese currency could hurt Maryland exporters - Baltimore Sun

Back in 2011 the Port of Baltimore was very active in shipping coal to China.
Also see article from June 11 2011:  Coal exports Tonnage through port booming - tribunedigital-baltimoresun


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## william the wie

Quite right. The short-run effects, 0-6 months, are easy to predict and are correct within the limits of error. It's the knock on effects and what that will do to US stock prices that is worrisome. Afterall this is the stock market forum.


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## Bill Angel

william the wie said:


> Quite right. The short-run effects, 0-6 months, are easy to predict and are correct within the limits of error. It's the knock on effects and what that will do to US stock prices that is worrisome. Afterall this is the stock market forum.


There is a series of articles on that issue:
The US Metallurgical Coal Industry s Unprecedented Consolidation - Market Realist
Or
"Is It Game Over for US Metallurgical Coal Stocks?"


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## william the wie

Bill Angel said:


> william the wie said:
> 
> 
> 
> Quite right. The short-run effects, 0-6 months, are easy to predict and are correct within the limits of error. It's the knock on effects and what that will do to US stock prices that is worrisome. Afterall this is the stock market forum.
> 
> 
> 
> There is a series of articles on that issue:
> The US Metallurgical Coal Industry s Unprecedented Consolidation - Market Realist
> Or
> "Is It Game Over for US Metallurgical Coal Stocks?"
Click to expand...

Believe it or don't those articles are the happy face of the world coal market. The massive mine reserves in Mozambique and Mongolia is not only alliterative but a huge problem for met coal worldwide. If not for our rail and barge network US coal mining would have died about ten years ago. Aerial and seismic analysis has improved so much over the past 30-45 we are approaching oversupply in all extractive industries.


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## Mikeoxenormous

5 reasons stocks will keep sliding


> This was no knee-jerk drop on a boring summer day, either. The decline was a long time coming, precipitated by weak corporate earnings, a global economic slowdown and concerns over higher borrowing costs as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise official interest rates.


 There was never a recovery as liberalism is all about failure.  Global economic slowdown has been going on since B.O. took over, but with the shell game and 20 billion dollars of our tax dollars infused into the Euro , it was just propping up another failed liberal policy.  Inflation, which the FED has been saying is at or near zero(0) has been going through the roof, but since Obama hired the FEMALE lickspittle, she has done his bidding to keep playing games to make it look like liberalism works(it never had and never will).  So as Reverend Wright said once before, THE CHICKENS ARE COMING HOME TO ROOST.  When you take money away from 1 person and give it to another not deserving of that money, pretty soon people resent the THEFT of that money, and it isn't there anymore.  Liberals ran Detroit for over 50 years and it is bankrupt.  Liberals have taken over California and Illinois, and the states are bankrupt.  America had 9 trillion dollars of debt when George Bush left office.  Obama took over and has doubled that debt to over 18 trillion dollars.  PAIN is coming, many are going to get hurt, those that voted for Obama, not once, but twice, HOW IS THAT HOPE AND CHANGE WORKING OUT FOR YA.


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## william the wie

Actually the world is deflating. Lower energy prices in the US is going to reducing debt and therefore the money supply. China, Japan and many other less economically important parts of the world are flat out deflating despite cooking the books to a crisp. Chinese capital flight through the use of fake import invoices is hitting 1T a year by most estimates.

(Ghost cities, fake invoices and other types of book cooking are common in China. That is why Government officials will sometimes declare that the numbers they are using are not cooked. China can in theory export something like 300 T of capital but upto about half of that is known to be worthless and no one is going to be greatly surprised if most of the other half turns out to be smoke and mirrors.)


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## mamooth

China is now using their government pension money to prop up their stock market.

China share slide: Pension fund to invest in stock market - BBC News

Oh dear. That's not going to end well.

On the bright side, it will be a teaching moment for those who want to privatize Social Security.


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## Mikeoxenormous

Dow futures down as Wall Street preps for meltdown


> *U.S. stock index futures* screamed lower, with Dow futures *(@DJ.1)* tumbling as much as 350 points, as fears surrounding the health of China's economy multiplied.


 With the liberals propping up China, Europe and America with Quantitative Easing, all we did back 7 years ago, was extend the pain to where we are now.  The Fed who printed over 5 trillion dollars of FAUX money and has it on their books(those dollars are bank dollars) but nothing to back those dollars, we can no see the markets finally reacting to what liberalism always does,  "FAIL".  It did for the Nazi's, and later the USSR.  Without anything to back up the economy, but lies, soon the economies will tumble.  Pain is coming, it will be a disease in the cities, hunger will force those to go after those that have.  It will be up to U.S. to make sure that those hungry ones, go after the politicians liberal (R) and (D), who made this mess for America.  Someone needs to be held accountable, and the rats will be fleeing to their underground bunkers.


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## Mikeoxenormous

CIA Insider Warns: '25-Year Great Depression is About to Strike America'


> You will want to remember this date February 25, 2016.
> 
> According to one of the top minds in the U.S. Intelligence Community, that is when the United States will enter the darkest economic period in our nation's history.
> 
> *A 25-year Great Depression.*


 This is the second time I have heard about this upcoming event.  Back after the crash of 1929, America went into a 16 year Great Depression because  the liberal in office decided to start a welfare program that made Americans less productive and more reliant on the government causing less people to work themselves out of that depression.  So today, with many unemployed and underemployed, we are seeing a repeat once again of history.  Problem is today, many of those have no skills to help them out of this tragic event.  So we see the liberals once again, moving US closer to "*WAR"* whether it will be against Islam, China, or Russia, which is their hope to eliminate about 2/3rds of the worlds population.  When you vote "LIBERAL" you can bet there will be "EQUALITY", for everyone will be equally poor and equally miserable, unless you are the liberal elites who will send your children into war.


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## Mikeoxenormous

Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates Anytime Soon? Investors Say No


> The Fed watches financial markets closely, of course. Investors are losing money they might have spent, and falling prices can be an indicator of broader economic problems.


 Yeah the problem has been that the Obama administration has been lying to US since he took over.  That the lowering of the unemployment rate has been deceiving the American people to think LIBERALISM works.  So since Q.E. forever was supposed to end because of the ROARING ECONOMIC RECOVERY,(if liberals say it enough, then it must be true), we see that there is no recovery, but more "STIMULUS, or else.  Liberalism is a mental disorder.


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## Mikeoxenormous

Why another market plunge may be coming


> U.S. equities rebounded strongly early Tuesday -- only to fall again by the end of the day. Despite the continuing volatility, nothing much really changed since the start of the week except investor sentiment. And therein lies the clue to why another crash could be coming.


 You liberals who think the ECONOMY is recovering, please throw you money into the stock market.  I mean you are all in with Obama, the lower of the oceans, the healer of the planet, this is HIS  economy, so you should buy low right now and ride it higher.  Of course , it would be a risk if YOUR administration was lying to you and when you put your money in, in the hope he wasn't lying to you, you lost your shirt.  LOL , that would be funny as hell, as a fool and his money are soon separated.


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## Old Rocks

Mr. anderonjim, I have heard predictions like yours for sixty years. Has not happened yet, is not going to happen. That you wish it would happen is an indictment of your mental prowess.


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## william the wie

Old Rocks said:


> Mr. anderonjim, I have heard predictions like yours for sixty years. Has not happened yet, is not going to happen. That you wish it would happen is an indictment of your mental prowess.


Not to mention he got the economy and hemisphere wrong. When an economy hits stall speed warehouses suddenly become amazingly flammable and not just that suspicious tank farm fire outside of Kiev that was small enough to ignore in the US. However two explosions that can be seen from orbit with relatively low resolution equipment, is a tad unusual.

China is not attempting to blow up the world economy but they do seem likely to do a reasonable facsimile of that. Like it or lump it your team has the sitting scapegoat in chief so you have anointed  yourselves as the villain in the piece.


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## waltky

More bad economic news from China...

*Disappointing Report on China's Economy Shakes Markets*
_September 01, 2015 — Worries about China's economic growth were sharpened by a disappointing report on that nation's huge manufacturing sector Tuesday, sparking another global stock sell-off._


> In London and New York, shares lost 3 percent, while Paris and Germany dropped around 2.4 percent.  Prices on the Shanghai market fell drastically at Tuesday's open, but regained some strength to close at a loss of just over 1 percent, as Chinese officials insisted the situation was under control.  China's official manufacturing index for August fell slightly to its lowest level since 2012.  A survey by Markit, which focuses on smaller private firms, showed factory activity at the weakest performance level in 6½ years.
> 
> China is evolving from an export-driven manufacturing economy toward one based more on services and domestic demand. The world's second-largest economy also is struggling with market-oriented reforms intended to make it more efficient and productive.  China has been an engine of economic growth for many years, so changes, and setbacks there, ripple through the global economy, affecting stock and commodity prices in particular.
> 
> Bumpy ride
> 
> The developments have been so significant that Japan’s finance minister, Taro Aso, suggested Tuesday that the Chinese economy be a focus of this week’s meeting of the Group of 20 major economies.  Aso said that instead of being swayed by superficial market moves, he believes it is important to understand the structural issues affecting markets in China.  “I think it’s beneficial to hold a frank debate at G20 on what is happening in the Chinese economy,” Aso said.
> 
> During a visit to Indonesia Tuesday, International Monetary Fund Director Christine Lagarde urged emerging economies to be vigilant for spillovers from China’s slowdown.  Lagarde said China’s slowdown was not sharp or unexpected. But it's clear, she said, that the country is adjusting to a new growth model.  "The transition to a more market-based economy and the unwinding of risks built up in recent years is complex and could well be somewhat bumpy," she said.  An official at China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planning agency, said Tuesday that stock market volatility had been contained, and that the country could push forward with market reforms.
> 
> *Sentiment sinking*



See also:

*Lagarde Sees Weaker Global Economic Growth*
_ September 01, 2015 — Global economic growth is likely to be weaker than earlier expected, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, due to a slower recovery in advanced economies and a further slowdown in emerging nations._


> IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde also warned emerging economies like Indonesia to "be vigilant for spillovers" from China's slowdown, tighter global financial conditions, and the prospects of a U.S. interest rate hike.  "Overall, we expect global growth to remain moderate and likely weaker than we anticipated last July," Lagarde told university students at the start of a two-day visit to Indonesia's capital.  The IMF in July forecast global growth at 3.3 percent this year, slightly below last year's 3.4 percent.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde speaks at the Atlantic Council
> 
> Lagarde said China's economy was slowing, although not sharply or unexpectedly, as it adjusts to a new growth model.  "The transition to a more market-based economy and the unwinding of risks built up in recent years is complex and could well be somewhat bumpy," she said.  "That said, the authorities have the policy tools and  financial buffers to manage this transition."
> 
> Lagarde, who is visiting Indonesia for the first time in three years, said Southeast Asia's largest economy had the "right tools to actually react" to the global volatility.  "You have very sound public finances with overall government debt in the range of twenty-ish percent relative to GDP, you have a relatively small deficit," she said before meeting with Indonesian President Joko Widodo.
> 
> Lagarde Sees Weaker Global Economic Growth


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## Staidhup

When the renminbi is added to the basket of international trade currencies next month there will be a reckoning. As for the US, as they continue to dump dollars and exit funding our debt its going to hurt. China depends on exports, recent devaluation tactics will provide them the upper hand as it regards exports, however, imports from the EU and US will continue to decline as their growth rate in GDP flattens out and possibly stalls.


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## Mikeoxenormous

Old Rocks said:


> Mr. anderonjim, I have heard predictions like yours for sixty years. Has not happened yet, is not going to happen. That you wish it would happen is an indictment of your mental prowess.


3 reasons this stock sell-off could keep going


> After falling 115 points on Monday, the Dow Jones industrial average closed Tuesday to another triple-digit loss, tumbling more than 400 points. The benchmark index is now down more than more than 9% year to date.
> 
> Are these the final throes of the summer sell-off? Or is this a sign that the bears not only roam Wall Street, but rule it for now?


 Notice how the libtard is going after me for REPORTING what MSN(liberal news org) is posting?  As for 60 years, go look at what SOCIALISM did to the Nazi's and their 1000year rule.  See how USSR went bankrupt because everyone there was treated equally, equally poor and equally miserable, jumped their walls to escape, faced down machine guns, so they could try to live a better life.  So what we are seeing today, is another repeat in history, where you have a moron as president(and you morons voted for him twice) who has been manipulating the books, lies about unemployment, change the formula for the GDP, but you just cant change REALITY.  It always catches up with you, and we are seeing the end results day by day.  Such stupid people who keep voting dumbocrat, expecting a different result.  HOW IS THAT HOPE AND CHANGE WORKING OUT FOR YOU.


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## Mikeoxenormous

Millennials Aren't the Only Generation Moving Back in With Their Parents


> The economic recovery hasn’t rescued Millennials who are stuck living at home with their parents. This much we know already. Since 2010, the share of adults ages 18 to 34 living at home has increased, owing to the slow speed of the recovery, diminished wages for low-skilled jobs, and the weight of debt for college students (in particular for those who do not graduate).


 The ROARING ECONOMIC RECOVERY, The ROARING ECONOMIC RECOVERY, The ROARING ECONOMIC RECOVERY, there I have said it 3 times, so it must be true, yet like I said above, the FACTS prove otherwise.  Liberalism is a cancer on the world, and it makes everyone miserable.  The only way to get rid of this cancer is to cut it out of the host, destroy it, and never let it come back in.


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## Mikeoxenormous

william the wie said:


> Old Rocks said:
> 
> 
> 
> Mr. anderonjim, I have heard predictions like yours for sixty years. Has not happened yet, is not going to happen. That you wish it would happen is an indictment of your mental prowess.
> 
> 
> 
> Not to mention he got the economy and hemisphere wrong. When an economy hits stall speed warehouses suddenly become amazingly flammable and not just that suspicious tank farm fire outside of Kiev that was small enough to ignore in the US. However two explosions that can be seen from orbit with relatively low resolution equipment, is a tad unusual.
> 
> China is not attempting to blow up the world economy but they do seem likely to do a reasonable facsimile of that. Like it or lump it your team has the sitting scapegoat in chief so you have anointed  yourselves as the villain in the piece.
Click to expand...

http://moneymorning.com/ext/articles/windfall/soros-bets-on-market-crash.php?iris=388955


> It has come to light that controversial investor, George Soros has placed a $1.1 billion bet on the United States suffering a severe stock market plummet in the very near future.
> Soros, without question, has an undeniable track record of predicting such frightening events.
> Plus, it has been over 1,400 days since the S&P 500 experienced an even moderate correction.


 I sure hope you realize that George Soros is the puppet master that has been pulling the strings behind this admin.  Now when the market tanks, HE, George is going to make billions on your suffering.  Sometimes I am glad that I have been preparing the for worst, and can watch dipshits like you suffer, for stupid is as stupid votes, and they vote DUMBOCRAT.  Elections have consequences.


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## william the wie

Staidhup said:


> When the renminbi is added to the basket of international trade currencies next month there will be a reckoning. As for the US, as they continue to dump dollars and exit funding our debt its going to hurt. China depends on exports, recent devaluation tactics will provide them the upper hand as it regards exports, however, imports from the EU and US will continue to decline as their growth rate in GDP flattens out and possibly stalls.


A few common reporter mistakes to keep in mind when using sources about China:
The one child policy is actually a one Chinese citizen child policy. Anchor babies are actively encouraged by the government.
Due to the earlier retirement ages in China, 55 for women and 60 for men, the Chinese labor force is usually over-estimated.
Money smuggling is done with fake import and export certificates so keep an eye open about news of more warehouse explosions to cover up the evidence.


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## Scriph

1. Its not collapsing, if it is it is sanctions
2. RIP US


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## Mikeoxenormous

China trade shrinks in latest sign of economic weakness


> HONG KONG — Chinese exports and imports contracted in August in the latest sign of weakness for the world's second-biggest economy.


 How can this be happening when he who promised to lower the ocean and heal the planet, brought "HOPE AND CHANGE", to fundamentally transform America, and redistribute wealth(not to you) but to the liberal special interests groups who became multimillionaires on your taxes, when HIS economy is in roaring economic recovery?  Bunch of dumbasses who voted for the 1/2 white tard who has screwed the world, WORSE than Jimmy(the peanut) Carter did.  Jimmy is smiling now that he is no longer the worse president in the history of the US.  I pity the guy who wins the 2016 election for America is going to be FAR WORSE than what the muslim homosexual president in office now, inherited.


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## Mikeoxenormous

andaronjim said:


> China trade shrinks in latest sign of economic weakness
> 
> 
> 
> HONG KONG — Chinese exports and imports contracted in August in the latest sign of weakness for the world's second-biggest economy.
> 
> 
> 
> How can this be happening when he who promised to lower the ocean and heal the planet, brought "HOPE AND CHANGE", to fundamentally transform America, and redistribute wealth(not to you) but to the liberal special interests groups who became multimillionaires on your taxes, when HIS economy is in roaring economic recovery?  Bunch of dumbasses who voted for the 1/2 white tard who has screwed the world, WORSE than Jimmy(the peanut) Carter did.  Jimmy is smiling now that he is no longer the worse president in the history of the US.  I pity the guy who wins the 2016 election for America is going to be FAR WORSE than what the muslim homosexual president in office now, inherited.
Click to expand...

Wall Street set for another sparkling start


> Analysts said the expectation that China's policymakers will take further action to support the economy and prevent a sharp slowdown could help explain the positive tone in global markets.
> In the U.S., traders are expected to eye the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) at 10 a.m. ET for further clues on the health of the labor market.


 Anyone know why the stock markets were up yesterday?  I can only surmise that the FED injected more dollars into it, to prop up this 2 bit dictator.  If the market tanks(and it will) while Barack Hussein Obama is still in office, it will once again, prove that liberals have no clue on how to run a country, except into the ground.  So 94 million people are out of the labor force, yet the unemployment rate shows 5.1%, China is in a freefall, and the libs are hoping that China will print money enough to stimulate their economy, which has failed here.  Such stupid people who continually vote Dumbocrat and expect something different each time.  Stupid is as stupid votes.


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## william the wie

The market is up and will go up further because the US is the ultimate safe haven because it is the only country no longer using QE and is planning on a rate hike.


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## Mikeoxenormous

william the wie said:


> The market is up and will go up further because the US is the ultimate safe haven because it is the only country no longer using QE and is planning on a rate hike.


DJ Industrial Average quote and summary -- MSN Money


> DOW
> 
> US Markets Close In1 hr 55 min
> 
> 
> ▼
> 16,389.50
> -103.18
> -0.63%


 The economy is recovering, the economy is recovering, the economy is recovering.  There it was said 3 times, so it must be true, yet once again, YOU are wrong. You say that the ultimate safe haven is the U.S. but why?  Did you know that the DOW is down over 1200 points in the last month and down today another -103?  Liberalism is all about FAILURE, the more they do the more they fail.  History is all about liberalism and failure.  You just need to study it to understand why it DOES FAIL.


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## Mikeoxenormous

US stocks eye higher open amid volatility


> Traders will look past economic reports Thursday and the normal triggers of market movements to see if conditions stabilize, creating an environment where the Fed would be more comfortable hiking rates for the first time in more than nine years.
> On the data front, Thursday will see the release of initial jobless claims at 8:30am ET; wholesale trade data for July will be released at 10:00am ET.


 Did you know that with the low interest rates, Apple Inc, borrowed 5 billion dollars to reinvest in its own company, making that stock price go up?  Many of these companies have done the same, yet the everyday Joe, hasn't bought into the artificial inflation of stocks, which is why there is so much volatility in the market.  Last jobs report , the estimate was missed by -100,000 so this administration will revise that up , and this report will be less, but still not meeting expectations, and the lickspittle, lapdog media will candy coat the news as the economy is getting better because the damage was "NOT AS BAD".  It has been this way since the messiah took office.  But what do you expect from a Sociopath, that lies every time he opens his mouth.


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## Mikeoxenormous

HP says it will cut up to 30,000 jobs


> The total job cuts planned by the company as part of Whitman's multi-year restructuring plan was 55,000 as of October last year. HP had more than 300,000 employees as of Oct. 31, 2014.


 There are several signs about an economic recovery and that is that gas prices start to rise, because more people are heading to work, which in turn brings more money home.  Those hard working people need to go out and buy electronic computers and printers because when you are successful at working, products to make life easier become more affordable.  But since 55,000 are going to be CUT, this is just more indication that the economy is hemorrhaging, and the DOL will say that the unemployment rate either held at 5.1 or dropped to 5.0%.  Liberalism is all about equality, everyone must be equally poor and equally miserable, except the liberal elites like Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Al Gore, Bill Clinton and Barack Hussein Obama, who have their millions and billions, from out tax dollars.


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## Mikeoxenormous

Stocks waver, yields fall as Fed leaves rates unchanged


> Stocks waver, yields fall as Fed leaves rates unchanged


 So Janet Yellow once again shows how spineless she is in the anemic economic recovery.  I have records showing that 4 years ago, when she was appointed, she said that if unemployment gets down under 7% she would start raising rates because this shows the economy recovering.  The rate is now at 5.1% and she still wont raise rates.  She knows that the liberal elites like Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, George Soros and other million/billionaires are going to squeeze more money out of US by borrowing it at 0% get their stocks to go up and then sell when the market tanks.  Problem with this is the common person isn't being fooled, so they aren't buying up junk, not buying goods and services, and this will eventually lead us into the 25 year depression.  By then Janet can raise the rates all she wants for it will be too late.


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## Mikeoxenormous

Xi Gives America Inc. a Reality Check


> The progressive souring of corporate America on China may turn out to be more destabilizing for relations between the world’s two largest economies than even military tensions bubbling in East Asia.


 Yet you can bet that the liberal lickspittle lapdog media wont put too much out on this , for it will make the stock market fall like a ton of bricks.


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## william the wie

You do realize you are predicting the past and present?


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## Mikeoxenormous

william the wie said:


> You do realize you are predicting the past and present?


You do realize that when people forget, or not study the past, then the past has a tendency to repeat itself?  We have seen what sub prime mortgages have done to the economy.  We have seen what happens when people borrow obscene amounts of money and inject it into the stock market.  We know what happens to an economy when 94 million people are not looking for jobs.  We know what happens when crops are affected because of a drought.  In 1929 many of these factors dragged America into a 14 year depression, during that time, plenty of people had skills that enabled them to survive.  Today, many people use their thumbs to play games on the electronic devices, and have no clue how to survive in the world.  When(there is no more if) the next depression happens, many people are going to do what has happened in Ferguson, Baltimore and NYC, and this will happen all over American cities.


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## james bond

First, China has been manipulating the dollar, "stealing" US trade, jobs, and wages for decades.  No secret there.  The relationship has been what's less for the US means more for China.  So what happens when China's economy starts to go downhill?  

What has happened to China in 2015 is their stock market crash which followed the slowdown of Chinese manufacturing.  The Chinese "guvmint" is trying to prop up their currency in order to soften the long awaited property market crash.  This by selling mega amounts of US Treasuries and other paper (This has been going on for a couple of years, but China really outdid themselves).  I think we're still waiting as many people who bought Chinese stocks on margin still have to pay.  They can't afford a property market crash.  Still, the yuan has fallen and this means the dollar is stronger and the US people will be buying more goods this holiday season.  I think we've seen reports to this effect so far.

I wouldn't just focus on China.  There's Europe, Japan, Russia and other countries involved, too.  So far, the propping up by China continues and we hope for the best.  We look at China because it's the world's second largest economy and they are US' largest creditor, so it behooves the US and Europe that China is able to have a soft landing.


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## william the wie

james bond said:


> First, China has been manipulating the dollar, "stealing" US trade, jobs, and wages for decades.  No secret there.  The relationship has been what's less for the US means more for China.  So what happens when China's economy starts to go downhill?
> 
> What has happened to China in 2015 is their stock market crash which followed the slowdown of Chinese manufacturing.  The Chinese "guvmint" is trying to prop up their currency in order to soften the long awaited property market crash.  This by selling mega amounts of US Treasuries and other paper (This has been going on for a couple of years, but China really outdid themselves).  I think we're still waiting as many people who bought Chinese stocks on margin still have to pay.  They can't afford a property market crash.  Still, the yuan has fallen and this means the dollar is stronger and the US people will be buying more goods this holiday season.  I think we've seen reports to this effect so far.
> 
> I wouldn't just focus on China.  There's Europe, Japan, Russia and other countries involved, too.  So far, the propping up by China continues and we hope for the best.  We look at China because it's the world's second largest economy and they are US' largest creditor, so it behooves the US and Europe that China is able to have a soft landing.


There is little the US or even Europe can do about China's problems.
China has bad debt write-offs to do that may exceed world GDP.
Its labor force is shrinking .
And best of all the crash could be in the rearview mirror.
China is not salvageable by non-Chinese actors.


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## Mikeoxenormous

Insiders sending an ominous market signal


> "Talk about crosscurrents," said Jim Paulsen, chief market strategist at Wells Capital Management. "The insider selling is a real negative signal for the market typically."
> 
> One of the primary reasons it hasn't pulled the market down is a push from companies buying back their own shares. Corporate buying, including cash takeovers and new buybacks, hit $96.2 billion in November. Since third-quarter earnings began in October, buybacks have averaged $3.9 billion a day, which TrimTabs said is the second-highest pace since the bull market began in March 2009.
> 
> Buybacks have been an efficient way to push market growth as the *Federal Reserve* keeps borrowing costs low and retail investors remain reluctant market participants. Zero-interest money market funds continue to hold huge sums, with the current $2.67 trillion total 2.4 percent higher than a year ago, according to Investment Company Institute data.


 You can fool a liberal all the time, you can fool a moderate some of the time and you can fool a conservative once.  We conservatives have seen how the ZIRP has screwed up the economy, yet liberals continue to believe that it is recovering.  I guess when you are a goosestepping, koolaid drinking, low information, mindnumbed useful idiot, you believe what ever comes out of the Rainbow House.  Yes, the RICH are definitely RICHER(with the 1/2 white president in office almost 7 years) and the most in poverty ever in the history of the U.S. of A.  Elections have consequences, and you poor tards who voted for B.O. deserve all the misery he has FORCED upon you.


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## james bond

Huh?  I didn't mention anything about helping China, but a "hope" for a soft landing.  The US isn't buying yuan, as far as I know, but the Chinese have let US citizens buy and hold yuan for several years now.  I doubt the US would get involved unless it becomes political.  An example is what rich US citizens did to hurt Russia by manipulating oil prices when they invaded Ukraine.

That said, a slower growth for China would be good for the US.  Then the Chinese would not be so eager to lend more money to the US and the USG would be "forced" to cut back.


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## william the wie

China is disinvesting in US bonds and has been doing so for a long time.


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