toomuchtime_
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- Dec 29, 2008
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And what else are you asking Santa to bring you for Christmas?No, Ryan will fight. He's angling to take back the party from Trump and likely would run in 2020 if Trump loses. He may still if Trump wins. Trump is against a lot of Ryan's positions on nearly every issue.The problem the Democrats have is not just the Clintonites but the fact that the same corrupt policies and practices that prevented Sanders from winning the nomination were created nearly a half century ago, after McGovern won the nomination, precisely to prevent people like Sanders from winning the nomination. If the Party is to keep the Sanders supporters within its ranks, it is going to have throw out much of the leadership that has supported and used these policies over the years.Nah. No split. The Clintonites would be shown the door and be done. There aren't that many of them left as it is. The Clinton's have no real heir to their legacy and no clear proteges. The DNC would reunite behind someone a bit more progressive thanks to the common enemy that would be Trump. For the DNC the real danger is in winning. Clinton leaves no clear heir and she'd be ripe for a single term Presidency. The GOP would collapse after a Trump loss but reorganize quickly behind a stop Hillary campaign.If Trump wins it will split the Democratic Party between the progressives who feel cheated by the Clintons and the rest of party leadership because of the way Sanders was treated.Yeah, that's a problem but it's true. If Trump wins then Democrats will become very motivated to take the midterms in 2018 and White House in 2020. Trump is likely to only win by a razor thin majority of the Electoral vote right now. If Hillary wins, the GOP has to know that she will be ripe for becoming a one term President. I don't see it as likely the Democrats hold the White House in 202 if Hillary wins in 2016And whether who wins, we all must begin working for 2020.
The GOP is facing trouble either way. Paul Ryan is likely to fight Trump tooth and nail on some of his policy stances and Ryan won't fight alone. Trump pissed off a lot of folks on his way to the nomination. Trump's margins in the Solid Red states shows he isn't unifying GOP voters behind him either. You'll see some real infighting win or lose.
There will be no big battles between Ryan and Trump over any of Trump's major policies because there is little to no opposition to them among Republicans in Congress. There are likely to be disagreements between Trump and some of the more conservative elements in the Party about initiatives the conservatives push, but both Ryan, very much a conservative, and Trump, a pragmatist not an ideologue, are savvy enough to understand no one ever gets everything he wants and compromise is what keeps the government running. Whether Ryan and Trump learn to like each other or not, they will work together because they are both professionals.
And Ryan won't fight alone. Trump has a lot of enemies after the primaries and you're likely to see any initiative that Trump pushes fought while Trump is pressured to support initiatives that start with Senate or House leadership. That will be the essence of the fight between Trump and Ryan... who controls the agenda for the GOP.
For the Democrats, the stuff you're talking about is irrelevant. The Party is moving Left as a whole. There won't be a major rift once Clinton is done either in 2016 or 2020. Literally all the drama in the DNC comes from the Clintons and they're insane belief that Hillary is somehow "owed" a chance at the White House. Hillary was the source off all the party drama in both 2008 and 2016 and once she's either won or lost, it's over and the Party can go back to what it's doing. No split in the DNC is coming.