How long before Kurdistan becomes a "Problem"?

[Epsilon Delta]

Others have pretty much addressed it already- the geopolitical reality basically murders the viability of any independent Kurdish state. If it were to secede from Iraq it would cause secessionism in the Kurdish areas of neighboring countries and nobody wants that. Unless it can find a super-powerful patron state to arm and fund it regardless of the possibility of outright war with Turkey/Iran/Whoever, it's pretty much hopeless.

 

[Rando]

guys,berzani said if iraq keeps on heading towards a dictatorship,they will hold a vote for independence in september this year (2012).
not only that,but turkey said it would recognize an independent KRG/South kurdistan IF we and US helped turkey to get PKK out of afrin moutains. US agreed to it.
Sunni`s and Shia`s don`t have the power to take on kurdistan if it decleares independece.
Syria have its own problems.
Iran can`t do anything,because an attack against S.K could trigger a intense gurilla warfare inside iran by kurds in iran. not only that: The slightest aggresive move by iran could trigger an US-israeli attack against it.
economecly,kurdistan will survive. as it will produce 500,000 by the end of this year. the oil will go truth turkey,as they agreed to sell their products even if kurdistan is decleared.

 

[RoccoR]

GHook93, et al,

Someday the Kurdish will establish a state. But not anytime soon. Certainly not before the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has been satisfied over Kirkuk. And it is not likely that the governemnt in Erbil (KRG) will start a conflict over Turkish Territory. That woud risk everything.

... ... ...Honestly they would be stupid not to try it now, since Iraq will be at its weakest when the US leaves!

But see the map below! The Kurds have made claims to more than just the Iraq, they believe a large chunk of Turkey, Iran and small pieces of Syria and Armenia are part of Kurdistan. This could cause a problem, since its unlikely that they will ever be able to get any territory beyond their current borders.

(COMMENT)

There was once a Treaty; The Treaty of Sèvres (10 August 1920). This is were the original promise of a Kurdish homeland was made. Unfortunately it never came to pass. But for several decades, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has been trying to mount a struggle to form such a state through armed terrorist activity.

The president also gave an example of what could happen if Iraq’s Kurds were to declare independence. “Imagine the Kurdish Parliament decided to be independent. Even if none of Turkey, Syria, Iraq or Iran fought the new state with arms, but simply closed the borders, how could anyone get there? So we must be realistic, we are enjoying our rights now,” Talabani said.

But President Talabani may not be illuminating the complete story. Rumor has it that the Erbil and Ankara have been exchanging ideas relative to an Independent Kurdistan. However, it would probably require the neutralization of the PKK operating on both sides of the border and some oil concessions.

The cost may be a bit too high at the moment; and there are still ongoing agreements between Erbil and Baghdad that need resolved. However, if Baghdad become uncooperative, it is possible that Masoud Barzani, Leading the KRG, might call for independence.

Most Respectfully,
R

 

[kirkuki]

to all you cleuless haters , Kurdistan has already been established just needs proclaiming ... i know you will all have a sleepless night tonight but it is what it is , kurds in South kurdistan has given Halabja gassing and Anfal campaign which cost 5000 and 182000 lives respectivly which of you have given so many lives for a statehood !!? turks , iranians ? iraqis or syrians maybe ! not . and not Syrian(West) kurdistan is getting its autonomy , when iran is attacked the East kurdistan will become free , so it will be turkey vs 3 kurdistans lol , good luck then .

 

[kirkuki]

here is a video to those wondering why kurds want a state on their ancestral lands occupied by "muslims" which by the way occupation of another nation's land is forbidden in the Quran lol , lesson # for blind turks .


What if you were born a Kurd? - YouTube

 

[RoccoR]

kirkuki, et al,

The little video is a nice piece of work. It plays to the sympathy and emotion of the common man. It is a well done clip.

here is a video to those wondering why kurds want a state on their ancestral lands occupied by "muslims" which by the way occupation of another nation's land is forbidden in the Quran lol , lesson # for blind turks .

(COMMENT)

The establishment of firm borders and recognized boundaries inside northern Iraq should be the first goal. That will be hard enough; politically and militarily.

It is not reasonable to assume that, given the current Regional political climate of the adjacent states, the Kurdish Culture cannot expect much more. Certainly, no Syrian or Turkish territory should even be considered at this time. And the continued suggestion that any new Kurdish autonomy would include Syrian or Turkish Territory will not further international regional support for the cause.

Additionally, the Kurdistan Regional Government, should be focused on the settlement of the Kirkuk lines. And that will be a hard sell, if not a fight.

Most Respectfully,
R

 

[GHook93]

guys,berzani said if iraq keeps on heading towards a dictatorship,they will hold a vote for independence in september this year (2012).
not only that,but turkey said it would recognize an independent KRG/South kurdistan IF we and US helped turkey to get PKK out of afrin moutains. US agreed to it.
Sunni`s and Shia`s don`t have the power to take on kurdistan if it decleares independece.
Syria have its own problems.
Iran can`t do anything,because an attack against S.K could trigger a intense gurilla warfare inside iran by kurds in iran. not only that: The slightest aggresive move by iran could trigger an US-israeli attack against it.
economecly,kurdistan will survive. as it will produce 500,000 by the end of this year. the oil will go truth turkey,as they agreed to sell their products even if kurdistan is decleared.

Not disputing what you are saying, but do you have a link. I know the Kurdish PM has stated if the Iraqi stagnate governmenbt doesn't do anything then the will vote on independence, but I hadn't seen anything on a September timeframe. I also haven't see anything on Turkey saying they would recognize the country.
You are right on Syria, they won't do anything with problems of their own. I think there is more secular fighting in Iraq then the media is letting onto and it should only get worse. Iran can't do anything, because they don't want to give reason for NATO to attack!

 

[kirkuki]

kirkuki, et al,

The little video is a nice piece of work. It plays to the sympathy and emotion of the common man. It is a well done clip.

here is a video to those wondering why kurds want a state on their ancestral lands occupied by "muslims" which by the way occupation of another nation's land is forbidden in the Quran lol , lesson # for blind turks .

(COMMENT)

The establishment of firm borders and recognized boundaries inside northern Iraq should be the first goal. That will be hard enough; politically and militarily.

It is not reasonable to assume that, given the current Regional political climate of the adjacent states, the Kurdish Culture cannot expect much more. Certainly, no Syrian or Turkish territory should even be considered at this time. And the continued suggestion that any new Kurdish autonomy would include Syrian or Turkish Territory will not further international regional support for the cause.

Additionally, the Kurdistan Regional Government, should be focused on the settlement of the Kirkuk lines. And that will be a hard sell, if not a fight.

Most Respectfully,
R

well i think each occupied part of kurdistan has to be freed in its own unique ways , yes South kurdistan is on the way for independence , western kurdistan is already enjoying autonomy and they will not back out on it after Assad , eastern kurdistan depends on the fall of the mullahs in Tehran , so it is only turkey in the end that will be forced to give an autonomy to 15-20 million kurds living in northern kurdistan .

 

[RoccoR]

kirkuki, et al,

Asking for the Sun, and the Moon and the Stars, will get you nothing.

well i think each occupied part of kurdistan has to be freed in its own unique ways , yes South kurdistan is on the way for independence , western kurdistan is already enjoying autonomy and they will not back out on it after Assad , eastern kurdistan depends on the fall of the mullahs in Tehran , so it is only turkey in the end that will be forced to give an autonomy to 15-20 million kurds living in northern kurdistan .

(COMMENT)

Get recognized first. Get a nation. Right now, there is no autonomous nation for the Kurds; not recognized by the body of nations (anyway). Baby sets!

Don't count on shaving Syrian territory during a transition. The UN will take special care that Syria is not carved-up during such a sensitive and critical period.

Turkey is not going to give the Kurds the time of day. In fact, it will fight against the establishment of any autonomous territory for the Kurds; even that within the Iraqi border.

If the Kurdish people start a serious controversial issue, or risk the ignition of hostilities, it will lose its sympathetic support and setback the objective. The Kurds will have to be patient and accommodating. (Just one man's opinion.)

Most Respectfully,
R

 

[kirkuki]

 

[RoccoR]

kirkuki, et al,

This is a great "historical map;" but (unfortunately) it relates to the The Treaty of Sèvres (10 August 1920) at the end of the first World War. The main state players were Britain, France, and the Ottoman Empire.

(COMMENT)

Before the Treaty was ratified by the Ottoman Empire, which would have established an autonomous Kurdistan in eastern Anatolia; Atatürk (Mustafa Kemal) affected a Regime Change, overthrowing the reigning Sultan and abolished the Sultanate (Mehmet VI). This negated the agreements under the Treaty of Sèvres (10 August 1920) and was ultimately superseded by the Treaty of Lausanne (1923). Thus, the plans to establish an autonomous Kurdistan we disolved and gave rise to the beginning of the Kurdish separatists movement associated today (modern times) with the Kurdistan Workers' Party [PKK - AKA: Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK)**] (opposed by Turkey and Iraq). It also ended the concept of an independent Armenia.

NOTE:

AKA Historically: Peoples Congress of Kurdistan, Kongra Gel, Kongra Gele Kurdistan, Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan, New PKK, Freedom and Democratic Congress of Kurdistan, Kurdistan Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK), Kurdistan Halk Kongresi (KHK), Kurdistan Labor Party, Kurdistan Peoples Congress, Kurdish Freedom Falcons, Kurdish Liberation Hawks, Kurdistan Ozgurluk Sahinleri, Teyrbazên Azadiya Kurdistan (TAK).​

​

The PKK Separatist Movement has always been committed to the creation of an independent homeland for the Kurdish People in a Marxist fashion and revolt. The PKK is considered a regional terrorist group and has publicly stated (October 2005) that it will continue its armed campaign against in Turkey until the Turkish government meets its
demands.

Seeking an end to the rising tide of PKK attacks from the mountains of northern Iraq, Turkey is again enlisting the support of the Iraqi Kurdish leadership. Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani have been urging the PKK to declare a ceasefire -- and eventually lay down its arms -- in order to give a political solution a chance.

SOURCE: Turkey Looks to KRG for Help Against PKK, 5 July 2012 Thursday 10:25

There seems to be some "recent" movement on the issue. It appears that the senior leadership of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) have opened a discreet dialog with the imprisoned PKK leader. The AKP is a major player in Turkish domestic policy, and holds the key to how solutions are developed. This, I think is a major break-through.

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region -- A source close to Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), informed Rudaw that a meeting between him and the Turkish state has taken place in his cell on Imrali Island.

Ilhami Isik, also known as Balikci, told Rudaw that a delegation from the Turkish state visited Ocalan on June 26.

Balikci was visiting Ocalan that day and said that, on this visit, "Ocalan did not talk like before.”

“Currently, he is busy writing a roadmap for solving the Kurdish issue which consists of seven articles. At the same time, he supports the statements of Leyla Zana." Balikci said.

Last month, Zana, an independent Kurdish MP in Turkish Parliament, gave an interview to Hurriyet newspaper in which she said “the Turkish prime minister and leader of Justice and Development Party (AKP), Recep Tayyip Erdogan, can resolve the Kurdish issue in Turkey.”

SOURCE: Rudaw in English....The Happening: Latest News and Multimedia about Kurdistan, Iraq and the World - Secret Talks Reported between Turkey and Imprisoned PKK Leader

I am thinking that the PKK have come to understand that there is a better way to achieving autonomy than merely through armed action; and that further armed action may just be counterproductive. We shall see.

Most Respectively,
R

 

[kirkuki]

Well if the treaty of Sevres was implemented , none of these kurdish rebels would have existed now .

i see some lil changes going ahead by AKP but so far it is only talks no solid proof on the grounds .

and the only solution is to re-new the Treaty of Sevres or back to square one and the fighting will carry on.

and pkk is not a terrorist group , they juts simply seek "self-rule" like KRG ..

if pkk is a terrorist so is the turkish army:

Turkish military kills 35 Kurdish civilians

Turkish military kills 35 Kurdish civilians - OpenGlobe

 

[High_Gravity]

I have always liked the Kurds they have the resources and the manpower to have their own country, I hope they can get it.

 

[RoccoR]

kirkuki, et al,

The Treaty of Sevres is dead. It may have been a good idea at one time, but now we are dealing with entirely different state actors.

Well if the treaty of Sevres was implemented , none of these kurdish rebels would have existed now .

i see some lil changes going ahead by AKP but so far it is only talks no solid proof on the grounds .

and the only solution is to re-new the Treaty of Sevres or back to square one and the fighting will carry on.

and pkk is not a terrorist group , they juts simply seek "self-rule" like KRG ..

if pkk is a terrorist so is the turkish army:

(COMMENT)

The Turkish Army is protecting its national sovereignty. The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PPK) is a subversive and insurgent terrorist organization attempting to use of force and violence to intimidate or coerce the Turkish government, the local indigenous population, in furtherance of defunct political objectives and social goals.

The PPK's actions are not only a disruptive and terrorist entity from a Turkish view, it is detrimental to the establishment of a Kurdish Sovereignty within the Iraqi Border. The PPK's insistance on pursuing a multi-state carve-out is going to adversely impact the Kurdish Sovereignty in Iraq and eventually cause a deadly civil dispute between the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and counterproductive PPK elements; necessary for the KRG to secure Turkish support for KRG independence. But if Turkish sovereignty is jeopardized, you can bet that the Turks will become incrementally more forceful with those Kurdish enclaves that render aid, support, and assistance to the PPK.

Most Respectfully,
R

 

[kirkuki]

no, the pkk is asking for kurdish rights , in case you have forgotten the turkish constitution says there are only turks in turkey , hence denying over 15 million kurds who live on their ancestral land .

if turkey gives kurds autonomy then pkk will lay arms down, if not then there will be fighting going on till freedom is granted.

 

[kirkuki]

The Turkish Army is protecting its national sovereignty.

its occupying kurdish lands and they have to leave these lands or fighting will go on.

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PPK) is a subversive and insurgent terrorist organization attempting to use of force and violence to intimidate or coerce the Turkish government, the local indigenous population, in furtherance of defunct political objectives and social goals.

Turkish military kills 35 Kurdish civilians - OpenGlobe
Turkish military operations will stop if PKK lays down arms. By Dr. Kirmanj Gundi

The PPK's actions are not only a disruptive and terrorist entity from a Turkish view, it is detrimental to the establishment of a Kurdish Sovereignty within the Iraqi Border. The PPK's insistance on pursuing a multi-state carve-out is going to adversely impact the Kurdish Sovereignty in Iraq and eventually cause a deadly civil dispute between the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and counterproductive PPK elements; necessary for the KRG to secure Turkish support for KRG independence. But if Turkish sovereignty is jeopardized, you can bet that the Turks will become incrementally more forceful with those Kurdish enclaves that render aid, support, and assistance to the PPK.

KRG will never interfere in the pkk-turk war, and it has officially said this 100 times , pkk is waiting for a brave world leader to take 15 million kurdish interests into account not the turkish government account as its an ally to the west at the moment which really shows the double standard of the west, because they allow turkey to kill kurdish citizens while they call assad a dictator which too does the same with its people , the only way to get the northern kurdistan back it thru war since turks do not know how to be peaceful hence their genocidal past.

 

[High_Gravity]

Why is everyone so gung ho for the Palestinians to take all of Israel but nobody wants the Kurds to have anything? whats up with that?

 

[RoccoR]

High_Gravity, et al,

I don't think this is quite right.

Why is everyone so gung ho for the Palestinians to take all of Israel but nobody wants the Kurds to have anything? whats up with that?

(COMMENT)

There is no doubt that the Palestinians have their following and supporters. But I don't think there is a very large following outside the radical Arab contingent that wants the demise of Israel. I certainly don't. But I see that both the Palestinians and the Israeli have, in part, elements that are irrational on the topic.

The Kurds are similar. In some respects they have elements, that irrationally subscribe to a homeland.

Some people forget that the Turkish people are made up of a number of ethnic cultures - to include those of Kurdish heretage. Just as America is made up of a number of different groups, to include those of American-Indian heretage. It doesn't means that America, or any other country in the 21st Century has to be carved-up to accomodate those individual diversities.

Most Respectfully,
R

 

[kirkuki]

Turkish people are made up of a number of ethnic cultures

that is a false statement and that is what ataturk and turkey;s constitution does as well "deny 15 million kurds" , the correct statement should have been "turkey is made up of a number of ethnic cultures".

 

[Mr. President]

I have said this every trip over there and will continue to say it. Kurds are the only people in that region with any kind of sense and the only ones with the abillity to self govern. They are militarily and economically sound.