If anyone is possibly interested in the generally accepted oil forecast on non-partisan grounds

[bendog]

Oil Market Report - June 2022 – Analysis - IEA

Oil Market Report - June 2022 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

here it is.

I'm not holding my breath that many posters are interesting in much other than jacking off to their monitors (not that there's anything wrong with that, provided the board is not their source for porn.

The outlook ain't rosy, btw.

 

[Donald H]

Oil Market Report - June 2022 – Analysis - IEA

Oil Market Report - June 2022 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

here it is.

I'm not holding my breath that many posters are interesting in much other than jacking off to their monitors (not that there's anything wrong with that, provided the board is not their source for porn.

The outlook ain't rosy, btw.

Assuming this thread will be allowed to survive?

What is it in the outlook that isn't rosy?

As for the sanctions against Russia, they are only characterized as a buffer, but by appearances could be even less than that. Russia is selling more oil now than in the past. I didn't read anything on Russia's oil/gas sales but I would assume that Russia can get all it can sell to the world's markets.

That which might not be so 'rosy' is the manipulation of the price of gasoline at the pump.

 

[1srelluc]

Key takeaway for me.

Higher oil prices and a weaker economic outlook continue to temper our oil demand growth expectations. But in 2023, a resurgent China will boost non-OECD demand growth, offsetting a slowdown in the OECD. Following gains of 1.8 mb/d this year, world oil demand is forecast to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 101.6 mb/d in 2023.

China is not even getting going good yet.

Something else not mentioned (not really in the purview of the forcast) is what happens short term when we get a Gulf hurricane and rigs/refineries get pummeled.

 

[Donald H]

Key takeaway for me.

Higher oil prices and a weaker economic outlook continue to temper our oil demand growth expectations. But in 2023, a resurgent China will boost non-OECD demand growth, offsetting a slowdown in the OECD. Following gains of 1.8 mb/d this year, world oil demand is forecast to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 101.6 mb/d in 2023.

China is not even getting going good yet.

Something else not mentioned (not really in the purview of the forcast) is what happens short term when we get a Gulf hurricane and rigs/refineries get pummeled.

The OP hasn't even explained what it is that isn't rosy?
But I would agree with you if you're trying to say that demand will exceed supply.

That hasn't ever honestly been a reflection of gasoline at the pump.
During the Gulf War against Iraq, America manipulated the price down to $14 a barrel.

 

[bendog]

Assuming this thread will be allowed to survive?

What is it in the outlook that isn't rosy?

As for the sanctions against Russia, they are only characterized as a buffer, but by appearances could be even less than that. Russia is selling more oil now than in the past. I didn't read anything on Russia's oil/gas sales but I would assume that Russia can get all it can sell to the world's markets.

That which might not be so 'rosy' is the manipulation of the price of gasoline at the pump.

Well I'm not holding my breath of how the forum operates, although I am withholding my meager donations AGAIN at this point LOL.

But I thought my comment that the outlook was "not rosy" was enough of a personal comment to was enough to comply with the rules of threads (which are unevenly applied btw) without "speaking for the link."

But this is what caught my attention:

Global oil supply may struggle to keep pace with demand next year, as tighter sanctions force Russia to shut in more wells and a number of producers bump up against capacity constraints. EU countries have agreed to ban 90% of the bloc’s imports of Russian crude and oil products, to be phased out over the next six to eight months. Modest increases from OPEC+ will provide a partial offset, but non-OPEC+ will dominate gains for the remainder of the year and in 2023. Non-OPEC+ producers, led by the US, will add 1.9 mb/d of supply in 2022 and 1.8 mb/d next year. Nevertheless, to keep the implied balance from tipping into deficit OPEC+ would have to further tap into its dwindling capacity cushion, reducing it to historic lows of just 1.5 mb/d.

 

[Donald H]

Well I'm not holding my breath of how the forum operates, although I am withholding my meager donations AGAIN at this point LOL.

But I thought my comment that the outlook was "not rosy" was enough of a personal comment to was enough to comply with the rules of threads (which are unevenly applied btw) without "speaking for the link."

But this is what caught my attention:

I see you have no idea of what you're talking about.

 

[bendog]

I see you have no idea of what you're talking about.

you see consistent appliccation of rules on this forum?

Or you think the oil forecast is rosy?