If this trend continues, we'll know Trump has won before election day....

[Dr. Phosphorous]

You’re an idiot. That crackhead was a problem and killed himself with drugs. Then you made it racist and sent him to prison.

And you're a MAGA racist....and an idiot.

The opinion of a MAGA racist when it comes to police brutality means exactly jack and shit to me.

 

[Missouri_Mike]

And you're a MAGA racist....and an idiot.

The opinion of a MAGA racist when it comes to police brutality means exactly jack and shit to me.

You don’t have to worry about it anymore. The cops aren’t getting the crackheads off the streets and violent crime is up 5%.

 

[Missourian]

The polls were wrong in 2016, 2020, and 2022. I honestly have no idea what you are talking about.

You obviously don't follow the polls as closely as you claim.

You are right.

The polls in 2016 had Clinton over performing by 1.1 over her actual election totals and 2020 had Biden over performing by 2.7 over his actual vote totals.

I expect the polls today are reflecting an over performance of Harris as well.

I've been beating this drum for months.

 

[Missourian]

Even if that were true....why would you vote for someone who tried to cover this up right before the 2016 election?

Never mind....dumb question. I forgot that you are radicalized and deranged and belong to a cult.

Cover up what?

An accusations?

Nope...doesn't bother me a bit.

I saw Blasey-Ford nearly destroy Kavanaugh with baseless accusations that everyone knew were completely fabricated lies.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

You are right.

The polls in 2016 had Clinton over performing by 1.1 over her actual election totals and 2020 had Biden over performing by 2.7 over his actual vote totals.

I expect the polls today are reflecting an over performance of Harris as well.

I've been beating this drum for months.

You should pay closer attention to what happened in 2022.

Republicans did not do nearly as well as expected in 2022 because of Jan 6 and the overturning of Roe vs Wade.

And it's going to be the same this year with Trump.

 

[Missourian]

You should pay closer attention to what happened in 2022.

Republicans did not do nearly as well as expected in 2022 because of Jan 6 and the overturning of Roe vs Wade.

And it's going to be the same this year with Trump.

Was 2022 a Presidential election and I missed it?

No?

Then you're comparing apples and oranges.

If the polling results of a midterm election is where you're placing your hopes in a presidential year... you're delusional.

But good luck with that.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Was 2022 a Presidential election and I missed it?

No?

Then you're comparing apples and oranges.

If the polling results of a midterm election is where you're placing your hopes in a presidential year... you're delusional.

But good luck with that.

You're more delusional....for inexplicably believing Trump will do better this election after Jan 6 and after the overturning of Roe vs Wade.

No, he will not.

 

[Missourian]

You're more delusional....for inexplicably believing Trump will do better this election after Jan 6 and after the overturning of Roe vs Wade.

No, he will not.

Nobody cares Dude.

They care about good jobs, paying bills, buying groceries...

They care about illegal immigration, the economy, not being vaporized by nuclear Armageddon from WWII.

When faced with that, being one state away from an abortion provider doesn't seem all that bad.

If they cared, Kamala Harris wouldn't be polling at +0.2...

 

[Care4all]

"Political persecution" is why Trump slept with a porn star...and then used campaign funds to try to cover it up?

Only MAGA dumb fucks believe that bullshit.

Fyi

Trump did not use campaign funds to pay. He used Trump Organization funds, and should or could have used campaign funds, because it was essentially a campaign expense/payoff to Stormy. It was done to prevent her from talking about their sexual encounter, during his campaign....

he was already in hot water for his access Hollywood tape about grabbing strange women's pussy and getting away with it, as a Star.

The court case showed how Trump fraudulently used his business to pay for for the stormy NDA by lying on his business records about it...which covered up his payment for an NDA to Stormy. He should and could have just legally claim the payment by listing the NDA as an expense, but instead they fraudulently created a bogus cover-up....so there would be no record of the NDA ever being paid or even its existence. Thus resulting in the conviction for 34 counts of business fraud.

 

[CowboyTed]

IMO, Arizona is going to Trump

Georgia is going to Trump

North Carolina is going to Trump.

Michigan is going to Trump.

PA, I'm not sure about.

Nevada, I'm not sure about.

Wisconsin is probably going to Trump.

The polls margin of error has to be respected... They usually are consistent of bias in one way or another...

What I do see is this

This is Georgia polls...
Lets look at pollster rating
Marist College 2.9
Morning Consult 1.9
Redfield 1.8
Atlas Intel 2.9
Activote .
TIPP Insight 1.8
University of Georgia 2.2

So lets discount all polls <2.0

Now that puts Trump in the Lead but Harris is the one closing.

This is why polls are inaccurate..

 

[Missourian]

The polls margin of error has to be respected... They usually are consistent of bias in one way or another...

What I do see is this
View attachment 1031295
This is Georgia polls...
Lets look at pollster rating
Marist College 2.9
Morning Consult 1.9
Redfield 1.8
Atlas Intel 2.9
Activote .
TIPP Insight 1.8
University of Georgia 2.2

So lets discount all polls <2.0
View attachment 1031300

Now that puts Trump in the Lead but Harris is the one closing.

This is why polls are inaccurate..

Not sure I agree with your methodology here.

What I looked at was 2020.

Trump outperformed the state level polling in every swing state except PA where the polling said Biden +1.2 and the vote tally was Biden +1.2.

In Wisconsin, Trump outperformed polling by like five points.

The problem with THIS methodology is, the pollsters could have tweaked their polling to adjust for this.

But...since the over performing of Trump didn't change between 2016 and 2020...I'm more inclined to believe Trump will again over perform these poll numbers.

And that's very bad news for Harris.

 

[CowboyTed]

Not sure I agree with your methodology here.

What I looked at was 2020.

Trump outperformed the state level polling in every swing state except PA where the polling said Biden +1.2 and the vote tally was Biden +1.2.

In Wisconsin, Trump outperformed polling by like five points.

The problem with THIS methodology is, the pollsters could have tweaked their polling to adjust for this.

But...since the over performing of Trump didn't change between 2016 and 2020...I'm more inclined to believe Trump will again over perform these poll numbers.

And that's very bad news for Harris.

I think both narratives have grounding...

If someone tells you the they know either side then they are lying, it is mainly guess work at this stage...

It is all inside margin of error and either side could win...

Bookies have it that there is a 60% chance that either candidate will have 300+ votes..

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Nobody cares Dude.

No, you mean a MAGA Nazi like you doesn't care.

If nobody cared, then Trump wouldn't be the first Republican in 80 years who might lose the white women vote this election.

 

[Missourian]

No, you mean a MAGA Nazi like you doesn't care.

If nobody cared, then Trump wouldn't be the first Republican in 80 years who might lose the white women vote this election.

Trump is currently ahead with White women and HUGELY ahead with all men.

It's now a tie in the popular vote...first time a Republican had a shot at winning the popular vote in 20 years.

I understand why you have to lash out at someone who has been nothing but civil with you...

...because you see the writing on the wall...Harris is losing.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Trump is currently ahead with White women and HUGELY ahead with all men.

Incorrect. And this is why Trump is probably going to lose.

It's now a tie in the popular vote...first time a Republican had a shot at winning the popular vote in 20 years.

Keep believing that.

I understand why you have to lash out at someone who has been nothing but civil with you...

...because you see the writing on the wall...Harris is losing.

I "lash out" at you because you are radicalized, dangerous, and support the MAGA domestic terrorist movement.

 

[Care4all]

Incorrect. And this is why Trump is probably going to lose.



Keep believing that.



I "lash out" at you because you are radicalized, dangerous, and support the MAGA domestic terrorist movement.

No, he really isn't! I've known him over a decade on here and he's a good person! We just (Strongly ) disagree on our political candidate choices!

 

[Thunderbird]

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4949797-why-are-democrats-losing-its-simple-hubris/

 

[Mister Iggy]

Omg, that was brilliant.. lmao..

 

[mudwhistle]

Omg, that was brilliant.. lmao..

I had a classmate who went to school with me since 1st grade thru high school.

On facebook she was always giving me the business about my political beliefs.

I found out that she married a communist.

She was always cussing me out over whether or not communists were our enemies......and my military training proved that no free society can trust a communist.

Eventually I had to unfriend her because she was acting like that old liberal lady in that video.

 

[Missourian]

Incorrect. And this is why Trump is probably going to lose.

You are once again misinformed...

Trump leads Harris among White women by 3%...

"Trump's gains have been offset by increased support for Harris among white women, who favored him over Biden by 12 points late in 2020 but now lean Republican by 3 points, 46% to 43%."

That's from Reuters yesterday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-gains-with-hispanic-men-harris-up-with-white-women-reutersipsos-polls-show-2024-10-25/