Predictions of drought

[Old Rocks]

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Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west - Sewall - 2004 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

[1] Recent decreases in Arctic sea ice cover and the probability of continued decreases have raised the question of how reduced Arctic sea ice cover will influence extrapolar climate. Using a fully coupled earth system model, we generate one possible future Arctic sea ice distribution. We use this “future” sea ice distribution and the corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to run a fixed SST and ice concentration experiment with the goal of determining direct climate responses to the reduction in Arctic sea ice that is projected to occur in the next 50 years. Our results indicate that future reductions in Arctic sea ice cover could significantly reduce available water in the American west and highlight the fact that the most severe impacts of future climate change will likely be at a regional scale.

 

[waltky]

It sounds like a knock-off o' Uncle Ferd's ol' Instant Water scheme...

Can 'powdered rain' make drought a thing of the past?
19 August 2013 > The lack of water is a growing, global problem that seems intractable.

While the UN estimates that a large majority of the water we use goes on irrigation, researchers have been working on a range of ideas that make the water we use in agriculture last longer. There has been a great deal of excitement and some dramatic headlines in recent weeks about a product that is said to have the potential to overcome the global challenge of growing crops in arid conditions. "Solid Rain" is a powder that's capable of absorbing enormous amounts of water and releasing it slowly over a year so that plants can survive and thrive in the middle of a drought.

The powder forms a gel that the company says can last for up to 10 years

A litre of water can be absorbed in as little as 10 grams of the material, which is a type of absorbent polymer originally pioneered by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Back in the 1970s, USDA developed a super-absorbent product made from a type of starch nicknamed the "super slurper". The most widely used, commercial application of this technology has been in disposable nappies, or diapers as they are quaintly termed in the US. But a Mexican chemical engineer called Sergio Jesus Rico Velasco saw more in the product than dry bottoms. He developed and patented a different version of the formula that could be mixed in with soil to hold water that could then slowly feed plants.

Ground water

He formed a company to sell Solid Rain and it has quietly been selling the product in Mexico for around 10 years. The company says that the government there tested Solid Rain and found that crop yields could increase by 300% when it was added to the soil. According to Edwin Gonzalez, a vice president with the Solid Rain company, the product is now attracting wider interest because of growing concerns about the scarcity of water. "It works by encapsulating the water, and our product lasts 8 to 10 years in the ground, depending on the water quality - if you use pure water, it lasts longer," he told BBC News.

The company says their Solid Rain product can expand up to 500 times its size when water is added

The company recommends using about 50kgs per hectare - though it's not cheap, at $1,500 (£960) for that amount. Mr Gonzalez was at pains to point out that Solid Rain was all natural and would not damage the land even if it was used for several years. "Our product is not toxic; it's made from a bio-acrylamide. After it disintegrates, the powder-like substance becomes part of the plant - it is not toxic," he said.

Science uncertain

 

[waltky]

Granny ready to pack up the ol' rainbarrel an' take it out to California an' sell water fer a nickle a glass - make a buncha money...

California Drought Underscores: Water May Be More Valuable than Oil
February 07, 2014 — Though welcomed rain brought a dab of relief to California this week, the state still struggles with a drought that is classified as "extreme" or even "exceptional" – the most severe rating for water deprivation.

Reservoirs are baked dry, and cattle owners are selling off their herds due to lack of feed and water. Some California residents are facing water restrictions. Throughout the West and Midwest, "significantly more precipitation will be needed to overcome longer-term deficits," according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. David W. Richardson, managing director of Impax Asset Management, says these conditions only exacerbate a growing global crisis: without relief, by 2030 global water demand will outstrip supply by 40%. He sees not only a problem – but an investment opportunity.

"By 2050, this fresh water deficit has the potential to put $63 trillion or 22% of global gross domestic product at risk," Richardson says in a report. "In developed markets, substantial investment is needed to upgrade aging infrastructure, and the costs of doing so are rising steeply. Cumulative water infrastructure spending requirements are expected to exceed $23 trillion by 2030." Richardson says water infrastructure companies can provide steady growth on a global basis -- and up to 20% in some developing markets. Businesses range from pumps, pipes and valve manufacturers to companies supplying equipment for irrigation and infrastructure projects.

"Water treatment companies typically offer high levels of profitability and steady growth profiles," Richardson says. "High value-added products, such as desalination membranes or advanced treatment technologies command higher margins and offer a greater degree of earnings visibility because of steady demand for critical products in existing processes. With increasing demand requirements from growing coastal communities, desalination is a key area of growth."

MORE

 

[Zander]

Yawn ,,,,, yet another fear mongering thread by the AGW cult members.

Be afraid be very Afraid!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[westwall]

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Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west - Sewall - 2004 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

[1] Recent decreases in Arctic sea ice cover and the probability of continued decreases have raised the question of how reduced Arctic sea ice cover will influence extrapolar climate. Using a fully coupled earth system model, we generate one possible future Arctic sea ice distribution. We use this “future” sea ice distribution and the corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to run a fixed SST and ice concentration experiment with the goal of determining direct climate responses to the reduction in Arctic sea ice that is projected to occur in the next 50 years. Our results indicate that future reductions in Arctic sea ice cover could significantly reduce available water in the American west and highlight the fact that the most severe impacts of future climate change will likely be at a regional scale.

Wow, only a decade old. You're getting a little more current at least, but still way out of date.

 

[Mr. H.]

Before the advent of Al Gore's interntets, we had... weather.

Now we have weather circumvented. By politics.

Agenda by proxy. Bow and humiliate yourselves.

Sorry fuckers.

 

[skookerasbil]

The recorded history of extreme drought goes back hundreds of years......long, long before anybody ever heard of Old McDonald.

Chronology of Extreme Weather


Unless somebody can show me a photo of an SUV from the 1700's or 1800's, the whole drought thing is typical bomb throwing.






By the way........ever notice that debate topics posted by the AGW crowd invariably leaves out a historical context????

 

[Old Rocks]

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Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west - Sewall - 2004 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

[1] Recent decreases in Arctic sea ice cover and the probability of continued decreases have raised the question of how reduced Arctic sea ice cover will influence extrapolar climate. Using a fully coupled earth system model, we generate one possible future Arctic sea ice distribution. We use this “future” sea ice distribution and the corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to run a fixed SST and ice concentration experiment with the goal of determining direct climate responses to the reduction in Arctic sea ice that is projected to occur in the next 50 years. Our results indicate that future reductions in Arctic sea ice cover could significantly reduce available water in the American west and highlight the fact that the most severe impacts of future climate change will likely be at a regional scale.

Wow, only a decade old. You're getting a little more current at least, but still way out of date.

LOL. And what has happened in that decade? Thank you for making my point.

Megadrought in U.S. Southwest: A Bad Omen for Forests Globally by Caroline Fraser: Yale Environment 360

As brutal fires torch tinder-dry dense forests and neighboring homes in the American West, researchers are examining the relationships between drought, wildfire, and a warming climate, predicting mass forest die-offs and prolonged megadrought for the Southwest. These forces are accelerating, they say, and already transforming the landscape. Unchecked, they may permanently destroy forests in the southwestern U.S. and in some other regions around the world.

Across the West, “megafires” have become the norm. With climbing temperatures, after a century of fire suppression, the total area burned has tripled since the 1970s, and the average annual number of fires over 10,000 acres is seven times what it was then. Fighting and suppressing fires costs more than $3 billion a year, not to mention lives lost. So understanding what, if anything, can be done to reduce intense forest fires has assumed an urgent priority.

Currently suffering the worst drought in the U.S., New Mexico has emerged as a “natural experiment” in megadrought, a laboratory for understanding drought’s deep history in the region — and what might lay in store in an era of rapid, human-caused warming.

 

[percysunshine]

The California drought caused by...

The smelt is one bad ass fish. He can skeletonize an entire agriculture industry faster than a piranha.

.

 

[Old Rocks]

The California drought caused by...

The smelt is one bad ass fish. He can skeletonize an entire agriculture industry faster than a piranha.

.

And you are totally full of shit. And that particular fish is food for salmon. Lose that fish, lose a large percentage of the salmon.

California is in drought, with or without any water alloted for the fish. Looks like that may end now, hope so.

 

[percysunshine]

The California drought caused by...

The smelt is one bad ass fish. He can skeletonize an entire agriculture industry faster than a piranha.

.

And you are totally full of shit. And that particular fish is food for salmon. Lose that fish, lose a large percentage of the salmon.

California is in drought, with or without any water alloted for the fish. Looks like that may end now, hope so.

Face it. Environmentalists value a smelt more than they value human life.

Just admit it. Everything will be fine after that.

.

 

[skookerasbil]

Hate to have to blow one of these drought threads yet again, but I cant help myself.........

Drought is akin to death and taxes!! Always going to be with us, only some years it is more, some years less.......like its always been. The AGW crowd just wants you to think it is some kind of recent phenomenon and permanent pattern.


Its not.

 

[skookerasbil]

not to mention >>>


Bill Patzert, a research scientist and oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, says that the West is in a 20-year drought that began in 2000. He cites the fact that a phenomenon known as a “negative Pacific decadal oscillation” [not linked to climate change] is underway — and that historically has been linked to extreme high-pressure ridges that block storms.


West Coast Is ?On Track for Having the Worst Drought In 500 Years? Washington's Blog



C'mon Ray........cant believe you are not familiar with that!!!

 

[Star]

Hate to have to blow one of these drought threads yet again, but I cant help myself.........

Drought is akin to death and taxes!! Always going to be with us, only some years it is more, some years less.......like its always been. The AGW crowd just wants you to think it is some kind of recent phenomenon and permanent pattern.


Its not.

Your map(s) is simplistic, i.e. one dimensional. There are multiple factors to take into consideration...

For example:Global Warming Means More Evaporation

The SPEI can also be used to show how climate change is affecting the frequency of droughts in the Southwest.
According to an analysis by Climate Central, average annual temperatures have been increasing faster in the Southwest than in any other part of the country. Since 1970, temperatures in Arizona have been climbing at a rate of 0.639 °F per decade. As a result, rates of evapotranspiration have been increasing as well.

This graph shows the SPEI in Arizona over the same timeframe, but this time it takes out the precipitation component (SPI), and just shows evapotranspiration. The red bars show how quickly moisture disappeared from the atmosphere in each year:

Credit: CLIMAS, via Zack Guido​

Notice how much evaporation has increased over the past 30 years (shown in red, facing down). This does not mean that there has been a period of 30-year drought in the Southwest, or that the drought from the past 10 years has been worse than the droughts from the 1950s. Instead, it shows that as the climate got warmer, the rain that fell disappeared more rapidly. In other words, in a warming world, it takes more rain to stave off a drought.

.

 

[skookerasbil]

Hate to have to blow one of these drought threads yet again, but I cant help myself.........

Drought is akin to death and taxes!! Always going to be with us, only some years it is more, some years less.......like its always been. The AGW crowd just wants you to think it is some kind of recent phenomenon and permanent pattern.


Its not.

Your map(s) is simplistic, i.e. one dimensional. There are multiple factors to take into consideration...

For example:Global Warming Means More Evaporation

The SPEI can also be used to show how climate change is affecting the frequency of droughts in the Southwest.
According to an analysis by Climate Central, average annual temperatures have been increasing faster in the Southwest than in any other part of the country. Since 1970, temperatures in Arizona have been climbing at a rate of 0.639 °F per decade. As a result, rates of evapotranspiration have been increasing as well.

This graph shows the SPEI in Arizona over the same timeframe, but this time it takes out the precipitation component (SPI), and just shows evapotranspiration. The red bars show how quickly moisture disappeared from the atmosphere in each year:

Credit: CLIMAS, via Zack Guido​

Notice how much evaporation has increased over the past 30 years (shown in red, facing down). This does not mean that there has been a period of 30-year drought in the Southwest, or that the drought from the past 10 years has been worse than the droughts from the 1950s. Instead, it shows that as the climate got warmer, the rain that fell disappeared more rapidly. In other words, in a warming world, it takes more rain to stave off a drought.

.

You are absolutely correct........."There are multiple factors to take into consideration"


That's the whole point........dumbass. Blaming it on global warming is laughable and nothing but theory. It certainly isn't science.



There are wet years and dry years anywhere and/or everywhere ( see maps above ). ZERO consistent patterns. You lose.




In the past 24 hours, my dick got bigger and my dick got smaller. Lots of variables. That'll be next.......the AGW k00ks will start blaming boner size on climate change.

 

[westwall]

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Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west - Sewall - 2004 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

[1] Recent decreases in Arctic sea ice cover and the probability of continued decreases have raised the question of how reduced Arctic sea ice cover will influence extrapolar climate. Using a fully coupled earth system model, we generate one possible future Arctic sea ice distribution. We use this “future” sea ice distribution and the corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to run a fixed SST and ice concentration experiment with the goal of determining direct climate responses to the reduction in Arctic sea ice that is projected to occur in the next 50 years. Our results indicate that future reductions in Arctic sea ice cover could significantly reduce available water in the American west and highlight the fact that the most severe impacts of future climate change will likely be at a regional scale.

Wow, only a decade old. You're getting a little more current at least, but still way out of date.

LOL. And what has happened in that decade? Thank you for making my point.

Megadrought in U.S. Southwest: A Bad Omen for Forests Globally by Caroline Fraser: Yale Environment 360

As brutal fires torch tinder-dry dense forests and neighboring homes in the American West, researchers are examining the relationships between drought, wildfire, and a warming climate, predicting mass forest die-offs and prolonged megadrought for the Southwest. These forces are accelerating, they say, and already transforming the landscape. Unchecked, they may permanently destroy forests in the southwestern U.S. and in some other regions around the world.

Across the West, “megafires” have become the norm. With climbing temperatures, after a century of fire suppression, the total area burned has tripled since the 1970s, and the average annual number of fires over 10,000 acres is seven times what it was then. Fighting and suppressing fires costs more than $3 billion a year, not to mention lives lost. So understanding what, if anything, can be done to reduce intense forest fires has assumed an urgent priority.

Currently suffering the worst drought in the U.S., New Mexico has emerged as a “natural experiment” in megadrought, a laboratory for understanding drought’s deep history in the region — and what might lay in store in an era of rapid, human-caused warming.

A "megadrought? Please.... Like I said, this is nothing new. Oh looky here, 10 to 20 year droughts in a row common over the last 1000 years! How completely unshocking that California is going through it again. And oh, looky here, all those droughts occurred when CO2 levels were totally "safe".

Thank you for providing me with yet another nail in the coffin of AGW "theory".

Researchers have documented multiple droughts in California that lasted 10 or 20 years in a row during the past 1,000 years.


SAN JOSE, Calif. — California's current drought is being billed as the driest period in the state's recorded rainfall history. But scientists who study the West's long-term climate patterns say the state has been parched for much longer stretches before that 163-year historical period began.

And they worry that the "megadroughts" typical of California's earlier history could come again.




Scientists: Past California droughts have lasted 200 years

 

[westwall]

Hate to have to blow one of these drought threads yet again, but I cant help myself.........

Drought is akin to death and taxes!! Always going to be with us, only some years it is more, some years less.......like its always been. The AGW crowd just wants you to think it is some kind of recent phenomenon and permanent pattern.


Its not.

Your map(s) is simplistic, i.e. one dimensional. There are multiple factors to take into consideration...

For example:Global Warming Means More Evaporation

The SPEI can also be used to show how climate change is affecting the frequency of droughts in the Southwest.
According to an analysis by Climate Central, average annual temperatures have been increasing faster in the Southwest than in any other part of the country. Since 1970, temperatures in Arizona have been climbing at a rate of 0.639 °F per decade. As a result, rates of evapotranspiration have been increasing as well.

This graph shows the SPEI in Arizona over the same timeframe, but this time it takes out the precipitation component (SPI), and just shows evapotranspiration. The red bars show how quickly moisture disappeared from the atmosphere in each year:

Credit: CLIMAS, via Zack Guido​

Notice how much evaporation has increased over the past 30 years (shown in red, facing down). This does not mean that there has been a period of 30-year drought in the Southwest, or that the drought from the past 10 years has been worse than the droughts from the 1950s. Instead, it shows that as the climate got warmer, the rain that fell disappeared more rapidly. In other words, in a warming world, it takes more rain to stave off a drought.

.

When we think of simpletons AGW supporters always come to the top of the list that's for sure. I refer you to the post above.

 

[Old Rocks]

Wow, only a decade old. You're getting a little more current at least, but still way out of date.

LOL. And what has happened in that decade? Thank you for making my point.

Megadrought in U.S. Southwest: A Bad Omen for Forests Globally by Caroline Fraser: Yale Environment 360

As brutal fires torch tinder-dry dense forests and neighboring homes in the American West, researchers are examining the relationships between drought, wildfire, and a warming climate, predicting mass forest die-offs and prolonged megadrought for the Southwest. These forces are accelerating, they say, and already transforming the landscape. Unchecked, they may permanently destroy forests in the southwestern U.S. and in some other regions around the world.

Across the West, “megafires” have become the norm. With climbing temperatures, after a century of fire suppression, the total area burned has tripled since the 1970s, and the average annual number of fires over 10,000 acres is seven times what it was then. Fighting and suppressing fires costs more than $3 billion a year, not to mention lives lost. So understanding what, if anything, can be done to reduce intense forest fires has assumed an urgent priority.

Currently suffering the worst drought in the U.S., New Mexico has emerged as a “natural experiment” in megadrought, a laboratory for understanding drought’s deep history in the region — and what might lay in store in an era of rapid, human-caused warming.

A "megadrought? Please.... Like I said, this is nothing new. Oh looky here, 10 to 20 year droughts in a row common over the last 1000 years! How completely unshocking that California is going through it again. And oh, looky here, all those droughts occurred when CO2 levels were totally "safe".

Thank you for providing me with yet another nail in the coffin of AGW "theory".

Researchers have documented multiple droughts in California that lasted 10 or 20 years in a row during the past 1,000 years.


SAN JOSE, Calif. — California's current drought is being billed as the driest period in the state's recorded rainfall history. But scientists who study the West's long-term climate patterns say the state has been parched for much longer stretches before that 163-year historical period began.

And they worry that the "megadroughts" typical of California's earlier history could come again.




Scientists: Past California droughts have lasted 200 years

Did the paper state California, you stupid ass?

 

[westwall]

LOL. And what has happened in that decade? Thank you for making my point.

Megadrought in U.S. Southwest: A Bad Omen for Forests Globally by Caroline Fraser: Yale Environment 360

As brutal fires torch tinder-dry dense forests and neighboring homes in the American West, researchers are examining the relationships between drought, wildfire, and a warming climate, predicting mass forest die-offs and prolonged megadrought for the Southwest. These forces are accelerating, they say, and already transforming the landscape. Unchecked, they may permanently destroy forests in the southwestern U.S. and in some other regions around the world.

Across the West, “megafires” have become the norm. With climbing temperatures, after a century of fire suppression, the total area burned has tripled since the 1970s, and the average annual number of fires over 10,000 acres is seven times what it was then. Fighting and suppressing fires costs more than $3 billion a year, not to mention lives lost. So understanding what, if anything, can be done to reduce intense forest fires has assumed an urgent priority.

Currently suffering the worst drought in the U.S., New Mexico has emerged as a “natural experiment” in megadrought, a laboratory for understanding drought’s deep history in the region — and what might lay in store in an era of rapid, human-caused warming.

A "megadrought? Please.... Like I said, this is nothing new. Oh looky here, 10 to 20 year droughts in a row common over the last 1000 years! How completely unshocking that California is going through it again. And oh, looky here, all those droughts occurred when CO2 levels were totally "safe".

Thank you for providing me with yet another nail in the coffin of AGW "theory".

Researchers have documented multiple droughts in California that lasted 10 or 20 years in a row during the past 1,000 years.


SAN JOSE, Calif. — California's current drought is being billed as the driest period in the state's recorded rainfall history. But scientists who study the West's long-term climate patterns say the state has been parched for much longer stretches before that 163-year historical period began.

And they worry that the "megadroughts" typical of California's earlier history could come again.




Scientists: Past California droughts have lasted 200 years

Did the paper state California, you stupid ass?

Why, yes it did silly person. Only global warming morons seem to think that climate ends at state borders. Funny that.

 

[Old Rocks]

Now this is real humorous. First Walleyes denigrates the paper because it is over a decade old. Then when he realizes that the paper accurately predicted the present drought, that includes the whole of the Southwest, not just California, he tries to wiggle out by stating that California has had many droughts in the past. So it has, as has the Southwest. But that is the problem.

An area that is already prone to drought now has additional forcing agents pushing it in that direction.
And what we are seeing is the affects of the present warming doing exactly that. But, of course, the 'sceptics' immediatly say these areas have had droughts before. Oh well, in my lifetime, I expect to see the effects of the polar melt and the general warming affect areas that have not previously had the kind of whiplash drought and flooding common to the Southwest. And then these 'sceptics' will be wailing that the scientists didn't warn them.