Pro Hillary liberal LA Times / USC poll still shows Trump leading, now by +5

[Toro]

Last 5 polls that weren't that odd USC poll

CBS Hillary +6
CNN Hillary +6
Economist Hillary +5
Fox Hillary +5
PPP Hillary +4

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Orange Jesus worshipers cling to the one poll that is different from every other poll out there.

Hope springs eternal.

 

[Toro]

When you have a tracking poll and the participants don’t change; that is what happens sometime.

That's what a tracking poll is, it tracks.

Yes. And if they leaned Trump to start with, it won’t change.
Watch and learn or, if you’re a trump supporter, watch and blame everyone else.

If, but they didn't lean Trump to start with. Making up an explation that doesn't apply.

The pollsters even explain why their poll is different than other:

Using the 0-to-100 scale, however, almost certainly makes the Daybreak poll differ somewhat from other surveys. As with the bounce, any difference that results should shrink as election day gets closer and voters become more certain of their choices.

Finally, some analysts think the Daybreak poll is slightly tilted toward the Republican side because of how it accounts for the way people voted in the last election.

All pollsters weight their results somewhat to make sure their samples match known demographics — the right proportions of men and women, for example, or blacks, whites and Latinos.

The Daybreak poll goes a step further and weights the sample to account for how people say they voted in 2012: It’s set so that 25% of the sample are voters who say they cast a ballot for Mitt Romney and 27% for President Obama. The rest are either too young to have voted four years ago or say they didn’t vote.

The potential problem is that people tend to fib about how they voted. Polls have often found that the percentage of people who say after an election that they voted for the winner exceeds the winner’s actual vote.

If that’s the case this year, then weighting for the vote history would result in slightly too many Republican voters in the sample, which would probably boost Trump’s standing by a point or two.

Unfortunately, there’s no way to know for sure until we can compare the final vote to the poll’s final forecast. Given how long it takes to count all the votes, that answer won’t be available until at least a week after election day.

I agree with you on one thing, many of these polls are wrong. Just like the BREXIT vote in the UK, there are a large number people that will be voting for Trump (some in secret) that the polls are not able to gauge. The percentage point will probably be enough to give Trump the White House. You are playing down the anger and resentment the American public has for the corrupt career politicians, the radical ideologues, and the liberal elite media that is bought and paid for by the Democrat party. People are sick and tired of being told what to think, or that they're greedy racists if they don't agree with the leftist fascist point of view.

It should come as no surprise that the BREXIT leader is now a Trump supporter and VIP guest to the next debate.

Here's why most Brexit polls were wrong

Britain leaves the EU: How the pollsters got it wrong.... again

You don't understand what happened in the UK.

Here are the last three votes in the UK.

• Brexit
• General election
• Scottish referendum

In ALL of them, the pollsters underestimated the relative turnout of the older voters relative to younger voters. In ALL of them, the actual results skewed towards how older voters voted.

They had nothing to do with "hidden" voters.

It had to do with pollsters not estimating correctly the demographics of the turnout.

There is NO evidence that US pollsters are doing the same thing.

In fact, according to 538.com, Trump's polls during the primary OVERESTIMATED his actual vote by more than 1%.

IOW, there are no hidden voters for Trump.

 

[bodecea]

Hillary for Imprisonment 2016!

What WILL you do when your Orange Messiah loses in November?

 

[bodecea]

White elitist snobs who look down their noses at everyone are of course for Hillary.

i.e., whites with a college education.

Yeah, the basket weaving majors are all up Hillarys giant twat.

"Hillarys giant twat"....no misogyny here, folks.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

White elitist snobs who look down their noses at everyone are of course for Hillary.

i.e., whites with a college education.

Yeah, the basket weaving majors are all up Hillarys giant twat.

"Hillarys giant twat"....no misogyny here, folks.

No more than you and your misandry. See you're not so clever after all.

 

[Roudy]

That's what a tracking poll is, it tracks.

Yes. And if they leaned Trump to start with, it won’t change.
Watch and learn or, if you’re a trump supporter, watch and blame everyone else.

If, but they didn't lean Trump to start with. Making up an explation that doesn't apply.

The pollsters even explain why their poll is different than other:

Using the 0-to-100 scale, however, almost certainly makes the Daybreak poll differ somewhat from other surveys. As with the bounce, any difference that results should shrink as election day gets closer and voters become more certain of their choices.

Finally, some analysts think the Daybreak poll is slightly tilted toward the Republican side because of how it accounts for the way people voted in the last election.

All pollsters weight their results somewhat to make sure their samples match known demographics — the right proportions of men and women, for example, or blacks, whites and Latinos.

The Daybreak poll goes a step further and weights the sample to account for how people say they voted in 2012: It’s set so that 25% of the sample are voters who say they cast a ballot for Mitt Romney and 27% for President Obama. The rest are either too young to have voted four years ago or say they didn’t vote.

The potential problem is that people tend to fib about how they voted. Polls have often found that the percentage of people who say after an election that they voted for the winner exceeds the winner’s actual vote.

If that’s the case this year, then weighting for the vote history would result in slightly too many Republican voters in the sample, which would probably boost Trump’s standing by a point or two.

Unfortunately, there’s no way to know for sure until we can compare the final vote to the poll’s final forecast. Given how long it takes to count all the votes, that answer won’t be available until at least a week after election day.

I agree with you on one thing, many of these polls are wrong. Just like the BREXIT vote in the UK, there are a large number people that will be voting for Trump (some in secret) that the polls are not able to gauge. The percentage point will probably be enough to give Trump the White House. You are playing down the anger and resentment the American public has for the corrupt career politicians, the radical ideologues, and the liberal elite media that is bought and paid for by the Democrat party. People are sick and tired of being told what to think, or that they're greedy racists if they don't agree with the leftist fascist point of view.

It should come as no surprise that the BREXIT leader is now a Trump supporter and VIP guest to the next debate.

Here's why most Brexit polls were wrong

Britain leaves the EU: How the pollsters got it wrong.... again

You don't understand what happened in the UK.

Here are the last three votes in the UK.

• Brexit
• General election
• Scottish referendum

In ALL of them, the pollsters underestimated the relative turnout of the older voters relative to younger voters. In ALL of them, the actual results skewed towards how older voters voted.

They had nothing to do with "hidden" voters.

It had to do with pollsters not estimating correctly the demographics of the turnout.

There is NO evidence that US pollsters are doing the same thing.

In fact, according to 538.com, Trump's polls during the primary OVERESTIMATED his actual vote by more than 1%.

IOW, there are no hidden voters for Trump.

Trump has been falsely demonized 24 / 7 by the left wing media as a racist, therefore many people are embarrassed to say they support him, but will do so on Election Day. What that number is varies state by state but rest assured that this phenomenon exists. I live in a very liberal state and very liberal neighborhood and I run into people like that all the time.