Paulie
Diamond Member
- May 19, 2007
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but, back on topic, I just don't think that RP will pull enough dems or pubs to join with libertarian votes. It IS nice to see some from each side break off and consider a different platform with a different set of common ideas though.
Well, consider this.
Only 10% of the voting population votes in Primaries. That's what, like 10 mil?
Break it down into individual states, and you got about 200,000 votes per state, in primaries/caucuses. Split that in half, to represent each party, and it's roughly 100,000 votes per party. This is all rough estimates, of course. Some states would have a bigger turnout of a particular party, but it's ballpark figures. Add in the Libertarian voters, the Constitution Party voters, the Democrats switching to republican for him, and all the other disenchanted people in the country who've never even voted before, as well.
Of the 30-50% poll numbers that are reflected in national polls, how many of those voters do you think are going to actually show up at primaries and vote? Not all of them, I promise you that. Most voters are very apathetic. You can bet your ass though, that every single Ron Paul supporter will show up at his/her precinct on Primary day in their state. We ALL know what's at stake.
This means that Ron would have to probably average 100,000 votes in primaries, give or take. There's still a while to go, and he's even climbing quicker now in the national polls. He's around 5-6%, depending on the company conducting the poll. When you take into consideration how many Ron Paul supporters probably don't sit around their house all day answering land-line calls, or even having land-line phones to begin with, i would expect his numbers to actually be higher than they're represented. Also, the latest polls were done before his huge fund-raising day, which got him a LOT of media attention. And there's another one on Dec. 16th, which is already shaping up to be just as big, if not bigger.
What I'm getting at, is that he has a damn good chance at winning some primaries. Especially NH, considering how many people there are still undecided, and registered Independent. He could very well win over a lot of that support and get much needed votes. His campaign has been hitting NH hard, and a win there would mean a HUGE amount of exposure and CREDIBILITY/Electability going into the remaining primaries. Never forget how Buchanan won NH. NO ONE saw that coming.
You may not necessarily SEE him being able to get enough votes, but coming from someone who has been on that campaign trail in numerous areas in the northeast, I can tell you that he certainly CAN. I've seen the overall support, and it's much bigger than you might imagine.