Suspected new coronavirus case in France, Saudis report two more | Reuters
The new SARS-like coronavirus that has made an outbreak in Saudi Arabia is now up to 33 confirmed cases, meaning they've identified it for sure with electron microscopes: there must be more non-confirmed cases, of course, or it couldn't spread. Mortality rate is 60% so far, but that will change as the definition of "confirmed" cases change: they'll start assuming this disease if it spreads rather than testing each case, and presumably the mortality rate will go down. SARS ended up about 10%, which is very high for influenza, but still not as bad as some diseases of the past, like the English Sweate of 1485--about 1525, which had maybe 35% mortality but died out without spreading to other countries.
After apparently originating in Saudi Arabia (or from Pakistanis who work there), Saudi SARS spread to several Gulf states and now has been confirmed in Britain, France, and Germany, spread via Muslims who travel there or live in Europe.
A 65-year-old man in a French hospital is now confirmed to have it and he passed it to the man in the same hospital room, and then to his doctor, both hospitalized, and last night his nurse came down sick and was admitted.
That's a ratio of 3:1 infection rate..........
Anything even a fraction over 1:1 is an epidemic. Less than 1:1 contagion rate, the disease will die out. Do you see that, the math?
1.07:1 will spread slowly; 3:1 would be a raging epidemic as those three infect three more each and so on.
SARS had a very high infection spread rate, and had the odd feature of "superspreaders," a few people who infected a whole lot of people, nine to 17 each, just from touching elevator buttons or doorknobs. Not known why the superspreaders, but there were at least three known.
The bird flu now infecting more and more in China is spread apparently only thru poultry contact or maybe close family contact at worst, so I'd say the Saudi SARS new epidemic is the most problematic.
SARS nearly got away last time. Off and running, like the Spanish Influenza around WWI. But they stopped it, incredibly, after only a few hundred deaths.
The new SARS-like coronavirus that has made an outbreak in Saudi Arabia is now up to 33 confirmed cases, meaning they've identified it for sure with electron microscopes: there must be more non-confirmed cases, of course, or it couldn't spread. Mortality rate is 60% so far, but that will change as the definition of "confirmed" cases change: they'll start assuming this disease if it spreads rather than testing each case, and presumably the mortality rate will go down. SARS ended up about 10%, which is very high for influenza, but still not as bad as some diseases of the past, like the English Sweate of 1485--about 1525, which had maybe 35% mortality but died out without spreading to other countries.
After apparently originating in Saudi Arabia (or from Pakistanis who work there), Saudi SARS spread to several Gulf states and now has been confirmed in Britain, France, and Germany, spread via Muslims who travel there or live in Europe.
A 65-year-old man in a French hospital is now confirmed to have it and he passed it to the man in the same hospital room, and then to his doctor, both hospitalized, and last night his nurse came down sick and was admitted.
That's a ratio of 3:1 infection rate..........
Anything even a fraction over 1:1 is an epidemic. Less than 1:1 contagion rate, the disease will die out. Do you see that, the math?
1.07:1 will spread slowly; 3:1 would be a raging epidemic as those three infect three more each and so on.
SARS had a very high infection spread rate, and had the odd feature of "superspreaders," a few people who infected a whole lot of people, nine to 17 each, just from touching elevator buttons or doorknobs. Not known why the superspreaders, but there were at least three known.
The bird flu now infecting more and more in China is spread apparently only thru poultry contact or maybe close family contact at worst, so I'd say the Saudi SARS new epidemic is the most problematic.
SARS nearly got away last time. Off and running, like the Spanish Influenza around WWI. But they stopped it, incredibly, after only a few hundred deaths.
