The market is starting to collapse

[Luckyone]

hondo 50

Fake news on what the stock market DID? You mean to say that the stock market is lying?

 

[Cougarbear]

Today:

This was a big and likely indicative day. The DOW broke below 2 previous daily closing highs of importance that strongly suggest (if confirmed tomorrow) that the 200-day MA, currently at 41813 (1400 points lower), will become a viable target. The NASDAQ broke a pivotal daily close support at 20847 that was also very pivotal and that suggests the 20186 level will likely be seen tomorrow (200-day MA is there) and if the index closes tomorrow (Friday) below 20391, it could mean a lot more downside is to come.

The SPX is the only one that did not break anything of consequence today but is only 34 points away from breaking 2 levels of pivotal importance at 5836 and at 5827. The channel line I have been mentioning is only 50 points away (below).

One of the culprits today and that triggered a lot of the selling was NVDA, It reported earnings last night and though they were slightly better than expected and the stock opened slightly higher, the stock closed 9% lower and broke the 200-day MA. If the stock closes lower tomorrow by more than $.08 cents, a pivotal weekly close support level will be broken and if it closes $4.50 lower tomorrow a big sell signal on the daily closing chart will occur that will also confirm the break of the 200-day MA and generate a trend change.

Most (if not all) of the movement down seen the last 2 weeks, has been due to Trump's action.

One thing everyone here (especially the blind-by-choice Trump supporters) is that was in involved with the stock market is well-informed moneyed pockets. This is not people opening their mouths to opine but people putting their money where their mouths are. As such, these moves are indicative and these moves show that the moneyed people are worried and even negative as to what is to come to the nation's economy.

Bear that in mind.

And then, Friday happened

 

[Luckyone]

And then, Friday happened

Really?

Here, let me give you what the charts are saying:

Important week ahead, given that Trump administration's action will start to show in the economic reports​

DOW Friday Closing Price - 43840
SPX Friday Closing Price - 5954
NASDAQ Friday Closing Price - 20884
RUT Friday Closing Price - 2163

This past week was a wild week with high volatility and some dichotomy. The DOW outperformed all the indexes, having dropped .6% (from the previous week's close to the low seen last week) and then generating a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low and then closing green. On the other side of the coin, the NASDAQ and the RUT both dropped 5% from the previous week's close to the low last week and both closed red. The SPX dropped 3% and also closed red. The dichotomy was evident with the DOW closing on the high of the week and the NASDAQ closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting the dichotomy will continue this week. This does suggest that the traders are taking a "safe" (not speculative) approach to what is coming, starting this week, which is economic numbers that will start reflecting the Trump's administration effects of the economy.

One important chart thing that happened this week, is that the SPX got down to the bottom of the up channel it has been in since November and bounced up to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, meaning that if it does go above last week's high at 6043, a successful retest of the channel will have occurred, suggesting that up channel remains in place. Having said that, the channel is exclusively chart oriented, meaning that the fundamental picture remains the driving force of the market. With this week's important economic reports of the ISM Index and Jobs reports due out (Monday and Friday), those will determine if the channel remains or is broken. On a positive note, to all of this the channel will clearly give us that information, because if the index breaks the bottom of the channel (currently at 5834) and then confirms the break (going below 5773), the chart will clearly paint the picture that we are now in a down trend.

Having said all of the above, these two economic reports may not yet be catalytic as they represent what happened in February. The results of Trump's action may not yet be reflected strongly in these reports, meaning that some upside can still be seen without the uptrend resuming. Once again, the SPX will be the key. The all-time high at 6147 has not yet been tested successfully and if the economic reports are not conclusive, such a retest is likely to occur. As such, if the index does get above last week's high and closes green, such a retest could be happening. If that is the case, the index could get up intraweek as high as 6099 and then close out the week on Friday at 6040. If that occurs, the following week's inflation report will take on much meaning and would likely be decisive.

These are some of the chart levels to watch this week in the rest of the indexes. In the DOW intraweek resistance should be found at 44486. On a daily closing basis, it is at 44293 and that level is indicative. To the downside, a drop below last week's low at 43100 (daily close below 43239) would be indicatively negative. In the NASDAQ, there is presently intraweek resistance at 21182, which if broken would suggest that 21702 would likely be seen. With the index likely to go lower this week, the downside objective could be as low as 20200, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. The 19880 level is pivotal intraweek support. In the RUT, the picture is presently negative as the index has broken (and confirmed the break) of the 200-day MA (currently at 2204). A confirmed daily close above that level, would be a short-term positive if the weekly close is above 2207. Such a close would open the door for 2263 to be seen. To the downside, there is no support below until the 2080-2090 level is reached.

Things are unclear at this time, given that there are a lot of very game-changing things occurring in the Trump presidency, which the results of, are not yet known. Overall, speculation is leaning to a bearish conclusion, but it is still to early to say how high those probabilities are. The reports this week and the next, will start to paint a clearer picture. Expect the high volatility that has been seen of late, to continue.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Interesting, Third Term, but unimportant.

 

[JohnDB]

The 200 DMA is an important metric...

Touching it was what set things off up.
Especially with the Federal budget coming in line with some sense of normalcy....not balanced yet but normalcy.

Leaving room for it to be balanced IF the economy grows and tax receipts grow. Meaning the end of inflation will happen and a few people will refinance their homes.

And long bonds will dive back down. Spuring more investments in our economy depending on how strong the dollar will become vx other currencies.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

Inflation will increase to over 6%.

JohnDB is flying on the fumes of hope and will crash.

 

[JohnDB]

Inflation will increase to over 6%.

JohnDB is flying on the fumes of hope and will crash.

6% would be a relief from the 11% we have been having.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

That was then and it came down to 4% last year.

We are talking now, and now Trump is failing.

 

[airplanemechanic]

Well, here is a non-cognizant Biden having a positive effect. In his last year as president, the market went up 14% in value and that means that the big-in-the-know investors put their money on Biden and won

View attachment 1084056

and in answer to your debasing words about me, here you are

View attachment 1084059

Yep, halfway through the last year, America finally realized we were done with Biden, he would be gone. THEN the markets took off.

Funny how markets always climb when news of a democrat being GONE comes along. Just like in 2016 when Trump was elected, the day after the election the stock market went up 1000pts. It did the same this time around.

In fact, in a quote from one of your posts right after election week in 2024:

The indexes had a major week up with the DOW increasing 3.6% in value, the SPX increasing 4.5% in value, the NASDAQ increasing 6% in value and the RUT increasing 8% in value. The rally, which was the best week of the year, came after the Trump win in the election was announced.

 

[justoffal]

Today:

This was a big and likely indicative day. The DOW broke below 2 previous daily closing highs of importance that strongly suggest (if confirmed tomorrow) that the 200-day MA, currently at 41813 (1400 points lower), will become a viable target. The NASDAQ broke a pivotal daily close support at 20847 that was also very pivotal and that suggests the 20186 level will likely be seen tomorrow (200-day MA is there) and if the index closes tomorrow (Friday) below 20391, it could mean a lot more downside is to come.

The SPX is the only one that did not break anything of consequence today but is only 34 points away from breaking 2 levels of pivotal importance at 5836 and at 5827. The channel line I have been mentioning is only 50 points away (below).

One of the culprits today and that triggered a lot of the selling was NVDA, It reported earnings last night and though they were slightly better than expected and the stock opened slightly higher, the stock closed 9% lower and broke the 200-day MA. If the stock closes lower tomorrow by more than $.08 cents, a pivotal weekly close support level will be broken and if it closes $4.50 lower tomorrow a big sell signal on the daily closing chart will occur that will also confirm the break of the 200-day MA and generate a trend change.

Most (if not all) of the movement down seen the last 2 weeks, has been due to Trump's action.

One thing everyone here (especially the blind-by-choice Trump supporters) is that was in involved with the stock market is well-informed moneyed pockets. This is not people opening their mouths to opine but people putting their money where their mouths are. As such, these moves are indicative and these moves show that the moneyed people are worried and even negative as to what is to come to the nation's economy.

Bear that in mind.

Blah blah blah blah.... With the market everything is indicative until it's not. Everything is definite until it's not. Attempts to tie of to politics has never worked.... There aren't any long-standing patterns that differentiate the trends or categorize them by time period.

Good luck with your prediction....
They usually fall flat.

Jo

 

[airplanemechanic]

Slight market corrections are normal. I'm buying in at a record pace right now. Gonna ride this gravy train up!

 

[Luckyone]

Slight market corrections are normal. I'm buying in at a record pace right now. Gonna ride this gravy train up!

Good luck.............you are going to need it. The way I see it, this market has started a 4-year downtrend.

 

[0311]

Today:

This was a big and likely indicative day. The DOW broke below 2 previous daily closing highs of importance that strongly suggest (if confirmed tomorrow) that the 200-day MA, currently at 41813 (1400 points lower), will become a viable target. The NASDAQ broke a pivotal daily close support at 20847 that was also very pivotal and that suggests the 20186 level will likely be seen tomorrow (200-day MA is there) and if the index closes tomorrow (Friday) below 20391, it could mean a lot more downside is to come.

The SPX is the only one that did not break anything of consequence today but is only 34 points away from breaking 2 levels of pivotal importance at 5836 and at 5827. The channel line I have been mentioning is only 50 points away (below).

One of the culprits today and that triggered a lot of the selling was NVDA, It reported earnings last night and though they were slightly better than expected and the stock opened slightly higher, the stock closed 9% lower and broke the 200-day MA. If the stock closes lower tomorrow by more than $.08 cents, a pivotal weekly close support level will be broken and if it closes $4.50 lower tomorrow a big sell signal on the daily closing chart will occur that will also confirm the break of the 200-day MA and generate a trend change.

Most (if not all) of the movement down seen the last 2 weeks, has been due to Trump's action.

One thing everyone here (especially the blind-by-choice Trump supporters) is that was in involved with the stock market is well-informed moneyed pockets. This is not people opening their mouths to opine but people putting their money where their mouths are. As such, these moves are indicative and these moves show that the moneyed people are worried and even negative as to what is to come to the nation's economy.

Bear that in mind.

Biden left 47 a strong economy and he well on the way to destroying it. Tariffs will cost the American consumer more money in way of higher prices. Unemployment numbers will go up. His planned tax cuts will increase the National Debt (which is what happened last time as well). Mush taking federal money for himself. The most corrupt administration our nation's history. Herbert Hoover totally indifferent to what happened to American People after the Stock Market Cash of 1929. President Grant appointed corrupt men. 47 is much worse. His appointees are grabbing cash knowing they can do it.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

We all did well with Biden markets, so don't lie.

I see a softening right now as inflation is going up and all are nervous about tariffs and what that madman Trump will do.

 

[airplanemechanic]

Good luck.............you are going to need it. The way I see it, this market has started a 4-year downtrend.

Hell no. Buy low and sell high. Not with Trump ending wars, cutting spending and doing exactly what he was elected to do. Markets LOVE that shit. Once chickens return to laying eggs and egg prices return to normal, things will calm down.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

What war has Trump ended?

Inflation is going up. Tariffs won't help.

The federal judiciary is kicking him in the ass?

 

[justoffal]

hondo 50

Fake news on what the stock market DID? You mean to say that the stock market is lying?

The stock market is doing what it always does no matter who's in office or what party is in power. Fluctuates... Sometimes it crashes.... Sometimes it's soars. Every attempt connect it to other events usually falls flat. I'm aware of an attempt to connect stock market successes to democratic presidencies. However a closer look at the numbers in the statistics indicate an awful lot of number bending and data shifting to make the point which automatically tells you the connection doesn't exist.

 

[justoffal]

Hell no. Buy low and sell high. Not with Trump ending wars, cutting spending and doing exactly what he was elected to do. Markets LOVE that shit. Once chickens return to laying eggs and egg prices return to normal, things will calm down.

Buy low and sell high Is the only strategy that has survived from the beginning of the market until now. The only one that works every time.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The bond curve inverted as well. That's a pretty strong recession indicator.

Because of the Bad Orange Man right?! The bond curve was hard as a rock for Kam-ala

 

[justoffal]

What war has Trump ended?

Inflation is going up. Tariffs won't help.

The federal judiciary is kicking him in the ass?

Tariffs are already helping.... There are no less than six large corporations planning to build factories in the United States in the next year in order to avoid them. That number will increase.
The federal judiciary can do nothing to stop an executive action. There's a surprisingly small number of TROs considering the amount of cases that have been brought. Those will fade away at the appellate level and if there are enough of them a blanket ruling will come from scotus. I guess you guys forgot about the nine zip ballot ruling.
The more the merrier because it will speed up the SCOTUS involvement.

Yes inflation is still run away....lf Trump doesn't handle it soon... If that's even possible.... It will show in the midterms big time.