This is a close election.

[candycorn]

Democrats went from massive blue wave Biden landslide, to it's going to be close...

Troll boy...the POTUS election was always going to be close. A wave is when you also pick up the Senate (which I don't think will happen either) and expand your margin in the House (which will happen; 10-15 seats).

Democrats could wipe out Republicans in the Senate. When Lindsay Graham is in trouble in SC, Republicans are in trouble.

I think the GOP will hold on to both the Senate and the Oval. Just a feeling. I hope I'm wrong about both.

However, if I had to pick between what do they have a better shot of holding on to...the Senate majority or the Oval, I'd say the Senate Majority. And I think if you were to give every Republican Senator truth serum, 50+ would say they wouldn't mind seeing Trump go. Its better for them personally in re-election hopes and it's better for the nation since...like all of them...they showed up to govern; not be part of this circus.

McSally may lose
Ernst may lose
Collins may lose
Hickenlooper looks like he's going to win.
If two other races break the Dems way... and Trump holds on to the Oval... it's going to be terrible for the Nation.

 

[busybee01]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

I don’t even like polls from “likely voters”. They should only be from registered voters. Nearly every self reporting “likely voter” winds up not voting. It’s an odd thing humans do when they lie to complete strangers asking for honest opinions to improve their image to that stranger. Whether it be scientific studies, doctors, pollsters, nobody wants to look bad even if it hurts their health or messes with data. This is also why what’s being called the “shy vote” is going to make an even bigger impact this year.

The topline data (who ya voting for, trump or Biden) isn’t all that useful. Pay attention to cross tabs and methodology. Cross tabs will show you the demographic break down. A lot of these polls are under sampling republican voters for whatever reason. May not be on purpose, may just be pubs don’t answer, idk. Either way many polls are clearly building in 5-10 pt advantages for Biden by under sampling Republicans. That’s just what happens when you poll 60% dems and 40% pubs in a county that went for trump in 2016. That poll is basically garbage. The fact that many of the pollsters aren’t coming out and announcing “hey we only managed to sample 40% pubs” like they should, tells me it may be on purpose in some of these cases.

Another thing I’m noticing is in methodology. I believe it was the recent Ramuessen that stated only some 70% of republicans say they planning on voting trump vs 94% of dems voting Biden. Even those on the left will admit there’s no way that number is true for republicans. So you wonder what type of questions they’re asking voters. Some of the questions I’ve seen get asked like this. “Do you agree with Biden’s message that America should be more united.” Dogshit loaded question. What if, like in the case of basically all right leaning voters, you don’t view Biden’s message as unifying at all. You’re probably all for a more unifying message, but don’t believe Biden is going to deliver. Better way to ask would be along the lines of “Do you believe Biden’s message is unifying.” Or the inverse that I’ve also seen is “Do you agree with trumps divisive rhetoric” is also a dogshit loaded question. No one wants to be viewed as being or agreeing with “divisive rhetoric”. If you want accurate data, you simply CANNOT frame questions these ways. There’s far to much of this type of this nonsense going on to give these polls much weight.

Here is the problem. The IBD/TIPP poll gives Biden a 11 point lead. It is one of the better pollsters. IBD is a Trump friendly publication. Also you had no problems with Rasmussen when their results were what you wanted to hear.

 

[busybee01]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

No one is inspired by Biden - Harris. In 47 years, Joe Biden has yet to generate any enthusiasm outside of Delaware. Those not voting for Trump are voting against Trump, not for Biden. I have never seen less enthusiasm for a Presidential ticket. They expect Biden - Harris to turn out more people to vote than Obama when there is no sign on the ground level that anyone cares about Biden? The only excitement about Biden is seen on TV.

A President who causes the death of over 200,000 Americans could very well inspire people to vote. Voters hated both Clinton and Trump. Now they hate Trump.

 

[busybee01]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

Your math doesn't make a lot of sense but okay. Yep...it's a ground game. Excited about Joe is congruent to hate for Trump. Either way it's a vote for Biden. At least I hope it is.

My math makes perfect sense. The Dim formula for winning elections has been the same for 50 years. Dims must get 40% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote to win. Dims hit those numbers they win.

Hillary got 90% of the black vote but black men did not like her and many stayed home. Also she only got 37% of the white vote. Hence, she lost.

I think Trump could get 15-16% of the black vote. If he does Biden likely loses. White turnout will be big in the upper Midwest. Strong white turnout and Trump wins. If Biden hits the 40% white vote and 90% black vote he wins.

Candy, I don't what to brag, but I know my shit. The polls mean nothing. It is all down to who actually shows up to vote. I know Trump voters are highly motivated. I am less certain about Dim voters. But both can win, no question, and right now I honestly do not know who it will be.

Your math is way off. Suburban voters have moved strongly towards democrats in 2018 and are moving towards Biden in 2020. Suburban women are likely to vote for Biden by a larger margin than they did for Clinton. Biden could very well win the white female vote.

 

[Mike473]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

Your math doesn't make a lot of sense but okay. Yep...it's a ground game. Excited about Joe is congruent to hate for Trump. Either way it's a vote for Biden. At least I hope it is.

My math makes perfect sense. The Dim formula for winning elections has been the same for 50 years. Dims must get 40% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote to win. Dims hit those numbers they win.

Hillary got 90% of the black vote but black men did not like her and many stayed home. Also she only got 37% of the white vote. Hence, she lost.

I think Trump could get 15-16% of the black vote. If he does Biden likely loses. White turnout will be big in the upper Midwest. Strong white turnout and Trump wins. If Biden hits the 40% white vote and 90% black vote he wins.

Candy, I don't what to brag, but I know my shit. The polls mean nothing. It is all down to who actually shows up to vote. I know Trump voters are highly motivated. I am less certain about Dim voters. But both can win, no question, and right now I honestly do not know who it will be.

Your math is way off. Suburban voters have moved strongly towards democrats in 2018 and are moving towards Biden in 2020. Suburban women are likely to vote for Biden by a larger margin than they did for Clinton. Biden could very well win the white female vote.

I doubt it. The economy is the #1 issue and the only job Joe Biden has ever created was for his son Hunter.

 

[candycorn]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

Your math doesn't make a lot of sense but okay. Yep...it's a ground game. Excited about Joe is congruent to hate for Trump. Either way it's a vote for Biden. At least I hope it is.

My math makes perfect sense. The Dim formula for winning elections has been the same for 50 years. Dims must get 40% of the white vote and 90% of the black vote to win. Dims hit those numbers they win.

Hillary got 90% of the black vote but black men did not like her and many stayed home. Also she only got 37% of the white vote. Hence, she lost.

I think Trump could get 15-16% of the black vote. If he does Biden likely loses. White turnout will be big in the upper Midwest. Strong white turnout and Trump wins. If Biden hits the 40% white vote and 90% black vote he wins.

Candy, I don't what to brag, but I know my shit. The polls mean nothing. It is all down to who actually shows up to vote. I know Trump voters are highly motivated. I am less certain about Dim voters. But both can win, no question, and right now I honestly do not know who it will be.

Your math is way off. Suburban voters have moved strongly towards democrats in 2018 and are moving towards Biden in 2020. Suburban women are likely to vote for Biden by a larger margin than they did for Clinton. Biden could very well win the white female vote.

That and 90+ 15 is 105%.... Candidates make races. Biden is a terrible candidate.... He has my vote...but he doesn't have my hope.

 

[Issa]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

No one is inspired by Biden - Harris. In 47 years, Joe Biden has yet to generate any enthusiasm outside of Delaware. Those not voting for Trump are voting against Trump, not for Biden. I have never seen less enthusiasm for a Presidential ticket. They expect Biden - Harris to turn out more people to vote than Obama when there is no sign on the ground level that anyone cares about Biden? The only excitement about Biden is seen on TV.

I know a ton of people that never voted and want to vote trump out. You are right people are not fired up by Biden or Kamala but oh boy the orange clown did it to himself.
He really has to go, he is too toxic for everyone.

 

[Juicin]

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

538 has nice compilations of polls.

Trump is going to barely pass 270 if he manages to win

The numbers are a lot worse than with hillary. He was within the margin of error of all the state polls in the swing states last time except wisconsin. Which has historically horrible state polling

 

[candycorn]

I understand that today was the first day of early voting in some places...and the lines were very long for early voting. Good to see. When DEMs Vote, DEMs and America wins.

 

[Ray9]

It is impossible to get an accurate picture of election forecasting because the mass media are solidly liberal. It is like asking one team's cheerleaders at a football game who is going to win. We get a very distorted picture of what is happening because that picture is filtered through reporting that is essentially propaganda.

 

[G.T.]

Any poll of LIKELY VOTERS in a true battleground state that doesn't have the race within 5% either way should be discarded.

My prediction is it will be close. Every election boils down to who actually shows up to vote. Polls do not measure voter intensity. I do not think minority voters are inspired by Biden Harris. I said the same thing about Hillary and I was right.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he will likely win the election. The minority vote is the wild card in this election. If Dems can hold on to 90% of the black vote they likely win.

If Trump wins 15% of the Black vote he wins...and if Biden wins 90% he wins?

You think a 5% swing... in a 12% overall Voter block... spread across 50 States... is what will decide the election...and you think that means you know your stuff?

Here's a math question:

How big of a percentage of the whole... is a 5% swing in 12% of the whole?

Take your time.

 

[G.T.]

I understand that today was the first day of early voting in some places...and the lines were very long for early voting. Good to see. When DEMs Vote, DEMs and America wins.

As of a couple of days ago, there were 9million Votes cast whereas at the same time in 2016, only 600, 000 were cast.

: 0

 

[candycorn]

It is impossible to get an accurate picture of election forecasting because the mass media are solidly liberal. It is like asking one team's cheerleaders at a football game who is going to win. We get a very distorted picture of what is happening because that picture is filtered through reporting that is essentially propaganda.

Would you say you're an impartial observer?

 

[Ray9]

It is impossible to get an accurate picture of election forecasting because the mass media are solidly liberal. It is like asking one team's cheerleaders at a football game who is going to win. We get a very distorted picture of what is happening because that picture is filtered through reporting that is essentially propaganda.

Would you say you're an impartial observer?

There are no impartial observers. Chris Wallace proved that.

 

[JoeB131]

There is only one set of fifty polls to take place on 03 November, one in each state; and then another poll to take place at a later date among the Electors; that will be accurate, or relevant. All the rest is just noise and nonsense.

The sure sign you know your side is losing.

"The only poll that counts is the election!!!"

Usually followed by someone invoking "Dewey Beats Truman" without understanding the context of how that happened.

 

[G.T.]

It is impossible to get an accurate picture of election forecasting because the mass media are solidly liberal. It is like asking one team's cheerleaders at a football game who is going to win. We get a very distorted picture of what is happening because that picture is filtered through reporting that is essentially propaganda.

Would you say you're an impartial observer?

There are no impartial observers. Chris Wallace proved that.

No, Chris Wallace didn't prove that...that's just a spiteful throw-away comment. Anyone informed is no longer impartial and we all knew that well before Chris Wallace.

 

[candycorn]

It is impossible to get an accurate picture of election forecasting because the mass media are solidly liberal. It is like asking one team's cheerleaders at a football game who is going to win. We get a very distorted picture of what is happening because that picture is filtered through reporting that is essentially propaganda.

Would you say you're an impartial observer?

There are no impartial observers. Chris Wallace proved that.

So essentially you trust nobody.... the very definition of paranoia. They have meds for your mental illness. You should take some.

 

[candycorn]

It is impossible to get an accurate picture of election forecasting because the mass media are solidly liberal. It is like asking one team's cheerleaders at a football game who is going to win. We get a very distorted picture of what is happening because that picture is filtered through reporting that is essentially propaganda.

Would you say you're an impartial observer?

There are no impartial observers. Chris Wallace proved that.

No, Chris Wallace didn't prove that...that's just a spiteful throw-away comment. Anyone informed is no longer impartial and we all knew that well before Chris Wallace.

There are no intellectual Trump supporters who look at what he proposes and takes it seriously...much less believes it. His campaign commercials have gotten more brazenly crazy about how he will "create" 10M jobs in 10 months. There may be 10 million more people working now than there is in January 2021...he will have created very few of those jobs.
Its just one lie after another. And there are a lot of voters who disregard what they know lies. Which is why this is a closer race than it should be. Such is our system.

 

[G.T.]

It is impossible to get an accurate picture of election forecasting because the mass media are solidly liberal. It is like asking one team's cheerleaders at a football game who is going to win. We get a very distorted picture of what is happening because that picture is filtered through reporting that is essentially propaganda.

Would you say you're an impartial observer?

There are no impartial observers. Chris Wallace proved that.

No, Chris Wallace didn't prove that...that's just a spiteful throw-away comment. Anyone informed is no longer impartial and we all knew that well before Chris Wallace.

There are no intellectual Trump supporters who look at what he proposes and takes it seriously...much less believes it. His campaign commercials have gotten more brazenly crazy about how he will "create" 10M jobs in 10 months. There may be 10 million more people working now than there is in January 2021...he will have created very few of those jobs.
Its just one lie after another. And there are a lot of voters who disregard what they know lies. Which is why this is a closer race than it should be. Such is our system.

I'm a fan of a tiered Voting system. I only learned about it this year watching some theoretical physicists (ironically) go off on a tangent about Politics during their discussion on the fundamental make-up of the Universe(lol).

Tiered Voting un-fucks us from the two-party system which leaves most sane folks feeling like they had no viable choices. There's a lot of built-in incongruities that it takes care of.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Trump and his Trombies insist that his win in 2016 was a landslide.

He will lose by a larger margin of electoral votes in this election than the margin he won by then.

He will be humiliated regarding the popular vote. Turnout is going to be massive.

Will he concede? No.

Will he call it a landslide victory for Biden? No.

Will USMB Trombies stand with him on both counts? Yep.