US import demand rapidly deteriorating...

Missourian

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Most of this article focuses on ocean going carriers using increased rejection rates to artificially increase spot rates.

If you are into ocean going freight economics...this is the article for you.

For everyone else, the most pertinent information is contained in the first few paragraphs...

"Back in May, we warned that a second-half rebound in U.S. containerized import volumes was highly unlikely as it was becoming increasingly clear that importers were facing a clear shift in consumer spending (from discretionary goods to more essential goods) and a nagging surplus of inventories that were carried over from last year. The reverse bullwhip effect was clearly going to crack any chances of a robust peak season. We also warned that this dismal outlook for future U.S. import demand may drive carriers to go to extreme lengths to keep upward pressure on spot rates.

Fast-forward to today and the tide is indeed turning quickly, with recent data from SONAR’s Container Atlas showing new booking volumes plummeting over 35% from their peak reached on Aug. 1, a key indicator that U.S. import demand is rapidly deteriorating."
 
Back in June, the worst case scenario "new bottom" was predicted as a 20% decline from 2019 pre-pandemic levels...the best case estimate being a 10% decline...

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If a "new bottom" of 35% decline holds...well...you can just imagine.
 
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(imported from an adjacent topic thread)



What do you think will happen to China's beleaguered economy if US imports drop 35% below 2019 levels?
China will go into a Depression, and the US will go into a Great Recession, at the least.
 
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