What Putin Wants from the Ukraine Conflict

BlackWizard91

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May 6, 2024
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In recent months, the discussion on whether the time has come to stop or at least freeze the war in Ukraine has visibly intensified. When contemplating various scenarios of how this could be done, pundits in both the United States and Europe focus on security guarantees and economic assistance that should be provided to Ukraine or on leverages the West could apply to persuade Kyiv to agree to an inescapably painful would-be agreement.
A lot less attention is paid to possible trade-offs that could be demanded from or negotiated with Moscow. It seems that Western diplomats and analysts, sensing the war fatigue in their respective societies, presume that a similar sentiment exists in Russia, or rather, in the Russian leadership.
To think so would be a mistake. The moment to assume that the Kremlin might be ready to seek a peace deal, if it has ever existed, has long since passed. At this point, Vladimir Putin looks confident that time is on his side. His calculus can, of course, still prove to be wrong, but for now, this is the basis for his decisions.
There are two fundamental sets of arguments that likely drive Putin’s thinking.
The first one is that Russia has preserved, and in some areas even increased, its capacity to wage war, including a war of attrition. In the autumn of 2023, Russian troops seized the initiative and currently are advancing. True, casualties are significant. But this is no novelty: this is how both the imperial and the Soviet armies fought for centuries.
Russia has maintained the necessary numbers of manpower, and Western economic sanctions have had a very limited impact on the Russian economy. Again, Russia’s resources are not endless, but for the time being, the Kremlin has enough money to finance the war, to pay salaries to soldiers or compensations to their families in case of a soldier’s death, and to make sure the defense industry will be able to function.
Russia’s budget deficit at war is smaller than that of many Western countries at peace.
Inside Russia, only a minority opposes the war. For the majority, it is extremely difficult to abandon their positive attitudes. It is worth reminding that 86 percent of Russian citizens welcomed the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Whereas support for the full-scale war against Ukraine has been lower, people are unwilling to accept the loss of the Crimean Peninsula. The “rally-around-the-flag” effect played a role in Putin’s reelection as president in March 2024.
Last but not least, Russia does not feel internationally isolated. It engages with the so-called “Global South,” with China playing the leading part in enabling Russia to continue the war. Countries like Iran and North Korea have become important suppliers of weapons, ammunition, and, in the latter case, also manpower.
The second line of argumentation is that Putin needs to achieve an unquestionable victory not only over Ukraine but, by extension, also over the West.
 
Putin will control the Ukraine, not Biden, Hunter, Obama, and the Democrats.

Putin attacked to exert his dominance in Russia's part of the world.

Obama and the Democrats had no business building a Naval base and high tech communications center in the Ukraine

Obama and the Democrats had no business trying to control the energy, the fossil fuels, electricity of the Ukraine.
 
The Ukraine War wouldn't have happened if Trump hadn't been impeached for his "perfect phone call", and had gotten to the bottom of Biden's corrupt dealings with Ukraine.

Thanks, liberal media and you Democrats. All that blood is on your hands.
 
In recent months, the discussion on whether the time has come to stop or at least freeze the war in Ukraine has visibly intensified. When contemplating various scenarios of how this could be done, pundits in both the United States and Europe focus on security guarantees and economic assistance that should be provided to Ukraine or on leverages the West could apply to persuade Kyiv to agree to an inescapably painful would-be agreement.
A lot less attention is paid to possible trade-offs that could be demanded from or negotiated with Moscow. It seems that Western diplomats and analysts, sensing the war fatigue in their respective societies, presume that a similar sentiment exists in Russia, or rather, in the Russian leadership.
To think so would be a mistake. The moment to assume that the Kremlin might be ready to seek a peace deal, if it has ever existed, has long since passed. At this point, Vladimir Putin looks confident that time is on his side. His calculus can, of course, still prove to be wrong, but for now, this is the basis for his decisions.
There are two fundamental sets of arguments that likely drive Putin’s thinking.
The first one is that Russia has preserved, and in some areas even increased, its capacity to wage war, including a war of attrition. In the autumn of 2023, Russian troops seized the initiative and currently are advancing. True, casualties are significant. But this is no novelty: this is how both the imperial and the Soviet armies fought for centuries.
Russia has maintained the necessary numbers of manpower, and Western economic sanctions have had a very limited impact on the Russian economy. Again, Russia’s resources are not endless, but for the time being, the Kremlin has enough money to finance the war, to pay salaries to soldiers or compensations to their families in case of a soldier’s death, and to make sure the defense industry will be able to function.
Russia’s budget deficit at war is smaller than that of many Western countries at peace.
Inside Russia, only a minority opposes the war. For the majority, it is extremely difficult to abandon their positive attitudes. It is worth reminding that 86 percent of Russian citizens welcomed the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Whereas support for the full-scale war against Ukraine has been lower, people are unwilling to accept the loss of the Crimean Peninsula. The “rally-around-the-flag” effect played a role in Putin’s reelection as president in March 2024.
Last but not least, Russia does not feel internationally isolated. It engages with the so-called “Global South,” with China playing the leading part in enabling Russia to continue the war. Countries like Iran and North Korea have become important suppliers of weapons, ammunition, and, in the latter case, also manpower.
The second line of argumentation is that Putin needs to achieve an unquestionable victory not only over Ukraine but, by extension, also over the West.
I agree that Putin can be more patient once Trump was elected President

He knows Trump promised a quick solution and has little tolerance for negotiation.

Putin will wait us out and take the casualties. But, like the US found out in Afghanistan and Vietnam, maintaining an occupying Army gets expensive. If Russia is not looked at as liberators and there is a resistance movement, it will become an economic burden.

There is also the question of lifting economic sanctions
 
I agree that Putin can be more patient once Trump was elected President

He knows Trump promised a quick solution and has little tolerance for negotiation.

Putin will wait us out and take the casualties. But, like the US found out in Afghanistan and Vietnam, maintaining an occupying Army gets expensive. If Russia is not looked at as liberators and there is a resistance movement, it will become an economic burden.

There is also the question of lifting economic sanctions
I think putin is signaling some desperation by importing North Korean troops

Its far from smooth sailing for russia
 
From the beginning, Putin has been very clear and unwavering in what he wants.
No NATO in Ukraine
Russia is keeping Crimea
End the Ukrainian military assault on the peoples in the Donbass
End the influence of the followers of Nazism in the Ukrainian government.

Russian forces have almost completed the task of removing the Ukes from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson so the Crimea and Donbass portions of the goals are almost complete.
The other two goals remain uncertain.
 
In recent months, the discussion on whether the time has come to stop or at least freeze the war in Ukraine has visibly intensified. When contemplating various scenarios of how this could be done, pundits in both the United States and Europe focus on security guarantees and economic assistance that should be provided to Ukraine or on leverages the West could apply to persuade Kyiv to agree to an inescapably painful would-be agreement.
A lot less attention is paid to possible trade-offs that could be demanded from or negotiated with Moscow. It seems that Western diplomats and analysts, sensing the war fatigue in their respective societies, presume that a similar sentiment exists in Russia, or rather, in the Russian leadership.
To think so would be a mistake. The moment to assume that the Kremlin might be ready to seek a peace deal, if it has ever existed, has long since passed. At this point, Vladimir Putin looks confident that time is on his side. His calculus can, of course, still prove to be wrong, but for now, this is the basis for his decisions.
There are two fundamental sets of arguments that likely drive Putin’s thinking.
The first one is that Russia has preserved, and in some areas even increased, its capacity to wage war, including a war of attrition. In the autumn of 2023, Russian troops seized the initiative and currently are advancing. True, casualties are significant. But this is no novelty: this is how both the imperial and the Soviet armies fought for centuries.
Russia has maintained the necessary numbers of manpower, and Western economic sanctions have had a very limited impact on the Russian economy. Again, Russia’s resources are not endless, but for the time being, the Kremlin has enough money to finance the war, to pay salaries to soldiers or compensations to their families in case of a soldier’s death, and to make sure the defense industry will be able to function.
Russia’s budget deficit at war is smaller than that of many Western countries at peace.
Inside Russia, only a minority opposes the war. For the majority, it is extremely difficult to abandon their positive attitudes. It is worth reminding that 86 percent of Russian citizens welcomed the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Whereas support for the full-scale war against Ukraine has been lower, people are unwilling to accept the loss of the Crimean Peninsula. The “rally-around-the-flag” effect played a role in Putin’s reelection as president in March 2024.
Last but not least, Russia does not feel internationally isolated. It engages with the so-called “Global South,” with China playing the leading part in enabling Russia to continue the war. Countries like Iran and North Korea have become important suppliers of weapons, ammunition, and, in the latter case, also manpower.
The second line of argumentation is that Putin needs to achieve an unquestionable victory not only over Ukraine but, by extension, also over the West.
Russia has changed its economy from goods to war . Everything from mining to machinery it's all now focused on warfare.

Where initially it improved his economy....the resources to support the Ruble are gone. There's no coming back from this unless Russia gains a normal economy from conquered lands. (Impossible from Ukraine)
The bankruptcies this coming year are on an insane level involving hundreds of billions of dollars likely into the tens of trillions in total. This will collapse their economy even more. Their infrastructure is crumbling faster every day.

Today, last I looked it takes 110+ rubles to equal one dollar. Gazprom and 30 other Russian banks were cut off and over 50 ships seized to stop the illegal trade of petroleum for goods.

The manpower is also problematic. Where Russia has imported soldiers they have also used vast amounts of "low value" blue collar workers as they have been deemed. These are low skill workers that drive trains and trucks. Currently logistics alone are short over 2500 workers. (Causing shortages)

No....Russia is not in a position of strength....it's falling apart as fast as Ukraine is.
Only AFTER the war stops Russia will still be isolated for some time to come. Talks are abounding about permanently cutting off all communications access and continuing the sanctions.

Cyprus is considering joining NATO as the Russian population there of wealthy Russians are affecting the nation's stability. Tossing them out back to Russia might be in their future as well.
 
Russia has changed its economy from goods to war . Everything from mining to machinery it's all now focused on warfare.

Where initially it improved his economy....the resources to support the Ruble are gone. There's no coming back from this unless Russia gains a normal economy from conquered lands. (Impossible from Ukraine)
The bankruptcies this coming year are on an insane level involving hundreds of billions of dollars likely into the tens of trillions in total. This will collapse their economy even more. Their infrastructure is crumbling faster every day.

Today, last I looked it takes 110+ rubles to equal one dollar. Gazprom and 30 other Russian banks were cut off and over 50 ships seized to stop the illegal trade of petroleum for goods.

The manpower is also problematic. Where Russia has imported soldiers they have also used vast amounts of "low value" blue collar workers as they have been deemed. These are low skill workers that drive trains and trucks. Currently logistics alone are short over 2500 workers. (Causing shortages)

No....Russia is not in a position of strength....it's falling apart as fast as Ukraine is.
Only AFTER the war stops Russia will still be isolated for some time to come. Talks are abounding about permanently cutting off all communications access and continuing the sanctions.

Cyprus is considering joining NATO as the Russian population there of wealthy Russians are affecting the nation's stability. Tossing them out back to Russia might be in their future as well.

In spite of the sanctions, the Russian GDP actually grew faster than ours. 3.1% in the third quarter of 2024, compared to our 2.8% in the same quarter. The sanctions haven't done much to curtail their profits from energy production either. China, India, Japan, Turkey, and South Korea are Russia's biggest importers of Russian oil, gas, and coal.
 
From the beginning, Putin has been very clear and unwavering in what he wants.
No NATO in Ukraine
Russia is keeping Crimea
End the Ukrainian military assault on the peoples in the Donbass
End the influence of the followers of Nazism in the Ukrainian government.

Russian forces have almost completed the task of removing the Ukes from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson so the Crimea and Donbass portions of the goals are almost complete.
The other two goals remain uncertain.
Basically, Russia gives up nothing and gets everything
Ukraine gives up everything and gets nothing
 
In spite of the sanctions, the Russian GDP actually grew faster than ours. 3.1% in the third quarter of 2024, compared to our 2.8% in the same quarter. The sanctions haven't done much to curtail their profits from energy production either. China, India, Japan, Turkey, and South Korea are Russia's biggest importers of Russian oil, gas, and coal.
Those ships have been seized....not happening anymore. As well as the banks allowing these transactions have been cut off from Central Banking just last week.

The increase in GDP came from building a war economy. It was only a temporary rise in GDP....this year's will only be a 1.5% estimated growth....if the bankruptcies don't shrink it.

Which ultimately will be problematic as the entire nation crumbles. These weapons and munitions will end up on black markets as the Government collapses. Just like what happened in the 90's.
 
I agree that Putin can be more patient once Trump was elected President

He knows Trump promised a quick solution and has little tolerance for negotiation.

Putin will wait us out and take the casualties. But, like the US found out in Afghanistan and Vietnam, maintaining an occupying Army gets expensive. If Russia is not looked at as liberators and there is a resistance movement, it will become an economic burden.

There is also the question of lifting economic sanctions
But Russia IS seen as a liberating army in the places it has taken, if they went into places like Galicia and Lviv not so much because they are a lost cause they collaborated with the NAZIS in WW2.
 
But Russia IS seen as a liberating army in the places it has taken, if they went into places like Galicia and Lviv not so much because they are a lost cause they collaborated with the NAZIS in WW2.
Ummmmm
I know of many that absolutely refute this. They are literally putting their lives on the line willingly to save their family farms.

Liberators? What a crock of sewer!
 
Ukranians west of the Dnieper have not wanted anything to do with Russia. Trump would just as soon as not tell them they're russians.
I doubt Russia wants to go West of the Dnieper it's the Bandera heartland, but Russia won't tolerate that part of Ukraine on NATO, way i see it Russia has nothing to talk about at the moment unless there is a military coup in Kiev that faces a new reality.
 
Ummmmm
I know of many that absolutely refute this. They are literally putting their lives on the line willingly to save their family farms.

Liberators? What a crock of sewer!
Try selling that shit in the Donbas and Cities like Donetsk who were attacked in 2014 or forthat matter in Odessa where NAZI thugs burned and beat people to death at the trade Union building Russia must take Odessa as well.
 
In recent months, the discussion on whether the time has come to stop or at least freeze the war in Ukraine has visibly intensified. When contemplating various scenarios of how this could be done, pundits in both the United States and Europe focus on security guarantees and economic assistance that should be provided to Ukraine or on leverages the West could apply to persuade Kyiv to agree to an inescapably painful would-be agreement.
A lot less attention is paid to possible trade-offs that could be demanded from or negotiated with Moscow. It seems that Western diplomats and analysts, sensing the war fatigue in their respective societies, presume that a similar sentiment exists in Russia, or rather, in the Russian leadership.
To think so would be a mistake. The moment to assume that the Kremlin might be ready to seek a peace deal, if it has ever existed, has long since passed. At this point, Vladimir Putin looks confident that time is on his side. His calculus can, of course, still prove to be wrong, but for now, this is the basis for his decisions.
There are two fundamental sets of arguments that likely drive Putin’s thinking.
The first one is that Russia has preserved, and in some areas even increased, its capacity to wage war, including a war of attrition. In the autumn of 2023, Russian troops seized the initiative and currently are advancing. True, casualties are significant. But this is no novelty: this is how both the imperial and the Soviet armies fought for centuries.
Russia has maintained the necessary numbers of manpower, and Western economic sanctions have had a very limited impact on the Russian economy. Again, Russia’s resources are not endless, but for the time being, the Kremlin has enough money to finance the war, to pay salaries to soldiers or compensations to their families in case of a soldier’s death, and to make sure the defense industry will be able to function.
Russia’s budget deficit at war is smaller than that of many Western countries at peace.
Inside Russia, only a minority opposes the war. For the majority, it is extremely difficult to abandon their positive attitudes. It is worth reminding that 86 percent of Russian citizens welcomed the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Whereas support for the full-scale war against Ukraine has been lower, people are unwilling to accept the loss of the Crimean Peninsula. The “rally-around-the-flag” effect played a role in Putin’s reelection as president in March 2024.
Last but not least, Russia does not feel internationally isolated. It engages with the so-called “Global South,” with China playing the leading part in enabling Russia to continue the war. Countries like Iran and North Korea have become important suppliers of weapons, ammunition, and, in the latter case, also manpower.
The second line of argumentation is that Putin needs to achieve an unquestionable victory not only over Ukraine but, by extension, also over the West.

Russia’s budget deficit at war is smaller than that of many Western countries at peace.


Because Russia has a tiny economy.
 

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