Will the ceasefire hold? a running dialogue of events

[RandomVariable]

Bloomberg running the headline:
Separatist Shelling Alleged After Ukraine Truce Starts
by Daryna Krasnolutska and Volodymyr Verbyany
(These are also the authors of the article that had the discrepancy in Poroshenko's statement. See post #13 and #14.)

Although it is only 4:30 in the morning and nothing could possibly be confirmed. Some just can't wait to jump the gun to start a war.

 

[RandomVariable]

Did a little search on our ever vigilant reporter Daryna Krasnolutska. Ain't this a surprise?

Ukraine Signs Accord on Transit Gas With EU, Russia
Sunday, 11 January 2009 10:34 By Stephen Bierman and Daryna Krasnolutska, Bloomberg News | name.

Gazprom is preparing to resume gas flow to Europe through a Ukrainian pipeline once international observers are in place. An accord was reached between Russia, Ukraine and EU officials on Saturday. (Photo: Reuters)

OAO Gazprom said it's ready to resume supplies of natural gas to Europe from Russia once an EU-brokered accord on monitoring transit via Ukraine is enacted, potentially ending days of disruption amid freezing temperatures.

Russia's state-run gas exporter will restart shipments "when the observers are in place," Sergei Kupriyanov, Gazprom's spokesman, said by text message today.​

edit: Sorry. Link: Ukraine Signs Accord on Transit Gas With EU Russia

 

[RandomVariable]

Daryna Krasnolutska's twitter page: Daryna Krasnolutska DarynaKrasno Twitter
She is clearly biased. Bloomberg has an amateur hack covering the crisis in Ukraine? Great fucking reporting Bloomberg.

 

[RandomVariable]

To Bloomberg's defense Volodymyr Verbyany looks like a solid reporter. His lame sidekick, Daryna Krasnolutska, should have her keyboard revoked however.

 

[RandomVariable]

I do not know what this means. It has neither subtitles nor a translation. I do not know the current status of mines warfare.

Ukraine War • Right Sector fighters mined the approaches to positions beside Donetsk Airport
Published on Feb 15, 2015

 

[RandomVariable]

A nice one minute video of peace in the Donetsk.

 

[RandomVariable]

Deadline for pull back of heavy weapons has just past. Donetsk and Lugansk are still contested and weapons have not been pulled back. Things are on the edge.

 

[RandomVariable]

As I mentioned in another post somewhere it is up to Poroshenko. He can either back down on these two towns or he can listen to that little voice in his ear and lose so much more. That little voice could also come to its senses.

 

[RandomVariable]

America is a little off balance as far as shoring up support but looks like they are giving Poroshenko the go ahead to escalate the war anyway.

 

[RandomVariable]

A little too little a little too late.
BBC News - Ukraine now a crisis for Russia and West says ex-MI6 boss

 

[RandomVariable]

Oops. Signs of life? (It is the source and the time of publishing which is significant.)
Putin Merkel Discuss Donbas Situation OSCE Mission Role With Poroshenko Sputnik International
01:28 17.02.2015(updated 01:45 17.02.2015)

The leaders of Russia, Germany and Ukraine have held telephone talks discussing the situation in southeastern Ukraine (Donbas) and the role of the Organization for Security and Co-operation (OSCE) in ensuring that the Minsk ceasefire agreements are fulfilled.

Read more: Putin Merkel Discuss Donbas Situation OSCE Mission Role With Poroshenko Sputnik International​

 

[RandomVariable]

I wonder if the State Department and I are going to be able to agree that we disagree on this one.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States said on Monday it is "gravely concerned" by fighting in and around Debaltseve in eastern Ukraine that flared up after a ceasefire agreement and said it is closely monitoring reports of a new column of Russian military equipment moving toward the region.

"These aggressive actions and statements by the Russia-backed separatists threaten the most recent ceasefire," the U.S. State Department said in a prepared statement. "We call on Russia and the separatists it backs to halt all attacks immediately."

Read more: US is gravely concerned by the deteriorating situation in eastern Ukraine - Business Insider​

 

[RandomVariable]

I have not seen any explanation of the dynamics of the situation in Debaltseve. I will try to do my best. The town was not specified in the ceasefire. The situation in Debaltseve when the ceasefire went into effect two days ago was that the rebels for all practical purposes had the town surrounded. Inside were approximately 6,000 Ukrainian troops. Militarily speaking it would only be a matter of time before the rebels fully captured the town. At the end of year if the full agreement is followed who controls the town today does not matter. It matters very much if fighting resumes. If fighting resumes and the Ukraine army had to re-enter the town it would require lots of resources. If fighting resumes and the rebels pull back and let the Ukrainian army reinforce the troops in the town it is a major set back for the rebels. The question is; who should back off. Unfortunately the answer is; neither. The deciding factor should be who would control the town in a month or so if fighting resumes, and that most likely would be the rebels. Since that is unknown for sure either side could claim they would be the one to control it. In order to find out however Debaltseve will be decimated. Then again if the ceasefire fails Debaltseve will not be the only town decimated.

 

[RandomVariable]

About the same as it has been. Debaltseve seems to be the only location of conflict although it does seem to be intensifying, street to street fighting as reported by the BBC. Dialogue is ongoing so at least people are still talking to one another. Two good sources of information. I believe the BBC mischaracterise how Debaltseve was specified in the ceasefire agreement however. Debaltseve was not dealt with specifically. Something of note in the BBC video in some of combat footage there is a unit insignia in one corner of the shot. I believe that is the insignia of the Right Sector. The Millitary Times article is a good read for some of the particulars of the situation.

BBC News - Ukraine crisis Battle rages for Debaltseve despite truce

Ukraine slams separatist rebels for violating truce

 

[RandomVariable]

This is huge I believe. The U.S. State Department specifically stating that arming the Ukrainian army would be equivalent to a 'proxy war'. Poroshenko has little choice but to accept the terms of the ceasefire. This might just be the end of the Ukrainian conflict. Granted it will take a day or two for the guns to go silent. There are still some variables which could light things up again but I believe those are being addressed.
US Proxy War With Russia Over E. Ukraine Not in World s Interest
Last updated on: February 17, 2015 2:43 PM

The U.S. State Department said Tuesday it was not in the interests of Ukraine or the world to get into a proxy war with Russia over eastern Ukraine, a comment suggesting Washington is hesitant to arm Ukrainian forces.

“Our belief here in the administration, and I would be surprised if others disagree, is that getting into a proxy war with Russia is not anything that's in the interest of Ukraine or in the interest of the international community,” spokeswoman Jen Psaki told Reuters. “And certainly, as we weigh options, we weigh that as one of the factors.”
​

(A side note if you go to the article there is a tweet from telegraph.co.uk stating 'Ukrainian TV crew forced to flee from huge explosion.' and shows an image of a very large column of flame and smoke billowing from the top. That is actually a picture of a gas line that was hit, which I have heard stated it is a gas line at least a couple of times on different videos.)​

 

[RandomVariable]

Seems the same as post #34. Some items of note. For some reason headlines seem to keep emphasising that the ceasefire is about to collapse but I do not see that, as stated in post #34. There seems to be a growing resentment in the Ukraine of Poroshenko for not ending the conflict. The people can see there is no point in keeping troops in Debaltseve after the area has been surrounded.

 

[RandomVariable]

Ukraine troops pulling out of Debaltseve. The new phase is between now and when the heavy weapons get behind their lines and out of the buffer zone. David Cameron seems to be letting out some of his inner John McCain.

I had heard the British did not want to go into Iraq with the U.S. but figured the U.S. would make such a mess of it that the British could at least add some common sense to the process. From what I have seen of Britain's attitude during the Ukrainian crisis I have some doubts about just how reluctant Britain might have been going into Iraq.

 

[RandomVariable]

Things are kind of odd at the moment. The way I see it is that the town, or area, of Debaltseve was not specifically addressed because neither would agree the status of it. Well now the status has been resolved, rebels control it. And now we can get on with the peace deal as specified, with Debaltseve amendment. Except with the possible exception of France no one seems to agree with me. I get the feeling that everyone was sure the ceasefire would fail and now that it has not people are just unwilling to reboot their thinking. The head of NATO sounds ready to go in there guns a blazin'. I tried to get Merkel's take on it but all I came up with is the German government stating generally that they are sorry the ceasefire failed. All things considered I would guess the next move is some rogue element, Right Sector by another name probably, blows something, or someone, up and conflict breaks out all over the place. Then everyone can continue with what they knew was going to happen without having to readjust to the fact that peace was possible. Merkel has been running the show so I am still waiting to hear from her. If she is not running the show any more did she hand it off? Did someone else pick it up? Sooner or later someone somewhere will find a compelling enough reason the ceasefire failed. Or maybe they will skip the reason and start fighting anyway, figure history will think of something eventually.

 

[RandomVariable]

Just as a wrap up to this thread looks like the ceasefire was for the most part successful up to his point. Now the only question is when does it become obvious Putin is making a run down the coast to Crimea. Another thread for that one.