daveman
Diamond Member
- Jun 25, 2010
- 76,751
- 29,726
A head scratcher No Atlantic Hurricane by August in First Time in 11 Years
The forecast:
The models are simply wrong.
Bloomberg News: August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal.
Six tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic since the season began June 1 and none of them has grown to hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 miles (120 kilometers) per hour. Accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic, a measure of tropical power, is about 30 percent of where it normally would be, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State Universitys seasonal hurricane forecasts.
At this point, I doubt that a super-active hurricane season will happen, Klotzbach said in an e-mail yesterday.
The most active part of the Atlantic season runs from Aug. 20 to about the first week of October. The statistical peak occurs on Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Six tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic since the season began June 1 and none of them has grown to hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 miles (120 kilometers) per hour. Accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic, a measure of tropical power, is about 30 percent of where it normally would be, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State Universitys seasonal hurricane forecasts.
At this point, I doubt that a super-active hurricane season will happen, Klotzbach said in an e-mail yesterday.
The most active part of the Atlantic season runs from Aug. 20 to about the first week of October. The statistical peak occurs on Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The forecast:
FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013
We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic. We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic. We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
The models are simply wrong.