g5000
Diamond Member
- Nov 26, 2011
- 131,470
- 75,562
- 2,605
Ordinarily, during times of stock market crashes, large investors move their money to US Treasury bonds in what is called a "flight to safety".
This surge in buying causes the interest rate on bonds to drop.
Supply and demand.
However, something odd is going on right now. Interest rates on bonds are rising because demand is reversing. Someone is selling off their bonds, and the demand for Treasuries is behaving counterintuitively.
This is most likely China. The selloff of bonds is happening during our evening hours, which is daytime trading hours in Asia.
When Dumb Donald raised the tariffs on China to 125%, the 10-year Treasury rate jumped from 4.1% to 4.5% within hours.
China owns a lot of our debt, so they can manipulate our interest rates very easily, and it appears they are.
I can hear MAGAs right now saying, "FAKE NEWS!...WHO CARES?...BUT MEXICANS!"
Here's why it matters.
Higher interest rates on Treasuries trickles down to higher mortgage rates, higher credit card rates, higher auto loan rates, higher rates on every type of credit.
Higher interest rates means it cost the US government more to borrow money. And Dumb Donald loves to spend and borrow other people's money.
We have $36 trillion of debt, of which Trump contributed $8 trillion. At some point, investors are going to have doubts as to our ability to pay off our debt, and then we will hit a death spiral as they demand higher and higher interest rates to compensate for that risk.
Right now, China is performing a proof of concept. God helps us all if they decide to wage a full-on bond war.
This surge in buying causes the interest rate on bonds to drop.
Supply and demand.
However, something odd is going on right now. Interest rates on bonds are rising because demand is reversing. Someone is selling off their bonds, and the demand for Treasuries is behaving counterintuitively.
This is most likely China. The selloff of bonds is happening during our evening hours, which is daytime trading hours in Asia.
When Dumb Donald raised the tariffs on China to 125%, the 10-year Treasury rate jumped from 4.1% to 4.5% within hours.
China owns a lot of our debt, so they can manipulate our interest rates very easily, and it appears they are.
I can hear MAGAs right now saying, "FAKE NEWS!...WHO CARES?...BUT MEXICANS!"
Here's why it matters.
Higher interest rates on Treasuries trickles down to higher mortgage rates, higher credit card rates, higher auto loan rates, higher rates on every type of credit.
Higher interest rates means it cost the US government more to borrow money. And Dumb Donald loves to spend and borrow other people's money.
We have $36 trillion of debt, of which Trump contributed $8 trillion. At some point, investors are going to have doubts as to our ability to pay off our debt, and then we will hit a death spiral as they demand higher and higher interest rates to compensate for that risk.
Right now, China is performing a proof of concept. God helps us all if they decide to wage a full-on bond war.