Dow headed for the worst April since the Great Depression

[Marener]

32 trillion on debt and rising. This can be tackled by combination of reducing our trade deficit and/or collecting more tariffs, lowering taxes and cutting spending. None of those things were going to happen under Biden or Harris.

Are you trying to make the argument that we were doing well and tariffs have changed the fundamentals? They haven't. What has changed is people freaking out for no reason.

Federal deficit has almost nothing to do with trade deficit.

The worst thing for federal debt is a recession. Trump has dramatically increased the risk of a recession.

 

[DBA]

Tariffs happened. They actually happened.

And what has actually changed? Inflation hasn't spiked. What are the real world implications that are now occurring?

The market fell before tariffs were even implemented. That was the main freak out courtesy of the left wing media scaring ignorant and brainwashed people into selling for no reason.

Look, I'm done trying to convince you of anything. You do you and I'll do me. I will be retiring well in large part because I don't fall victim to the nonsense that the talking heads and many economist spew. If most economists were as bright as they think they are, there would be more of them living in my neighborhood

 

[DBA]

The worst thing for federal debt is a recession. Trump has dramatically increased the risk of a recession.

He has also dramatically increased the chances for our country to flourish.

The risk of a recession is at maybe 40% and, again, that is based on nothing but fear and ignorance. No fundamentals are at play currently to warrant a recession.

 

[Marener]

And what has actually changed? Inflation hasn't spiked. What are the real world implications that are now occurring?

The market fell before tariffs were even implemented. That was the main freak out courtesy of the left wing media scaring ignorant evil it is selling for no reason.

Look, I'm done trying to convince you of anything. You do you and I'll do me. I will be retiring well in large part because I don't fall victim to the nonsense that the talking heads and many economist spew. If most economists were as bright as they think they are, there would be more of them living in my neighborhood

You don’t have to be a genius to know that high tariffs are going to have significant effects on supply chains and costs.

You’re making a strange and somewhat incoherent argument. If tariffs had no real impact, Trump wouldn’t be using them.

 

[JLW]

He has also dramatically increased the chances for our country to flourish.

The risk of a recession is at maybe 40% and, again, that is based on nothing but fear and ignorance. No fundamentals are at play currently to warrant a recession.

You have got to be on drugs.

 

[Marener]

He has also dramatically increased the chances for our country to flourish.

The risk of a recession is at maybe 40% and, again, that is based on nothing but fear and ignorance. No fundamentals are at play currently to warrant a recession.

Trump’s policy comes from a place of fear and ignorance. He thinks that our trade deficit is a sign that we are “getting screwed” which is gibberish.

The chance of a recession has gone up because of the cascading effects of a sudden increase in costs.

 

[DBA]

You don’t have to be a genius to know that high tariffs are going to have significant effects on supply chains and costs.

You’re making a strange and somewhat incoherent argument. If tariffs had no real impact, Trump wouldn’t be using them.

It's only they have an effect, but not the way you think they do. There is no way that you can convince anyone that if we have a net gain from new tariff negotiations that it is not better for our country. That is absolute nonsense

 

[DBA]

You have got to be on drugs.

Oh you think the risk of recession is greater than 40%? You don't think that a net gain in tariffs will benefit the US? Do tell.

 

[DBA]

Trump’s policy comes from a place of fear and ignorance. He thinks that our trade deficit is a sign that we are “getting screwed” which is gibberish.

The chance of a recession has gone up because of the cascading effects of a sudden increase in costs.

It's really more of a tariff deficit than a trade deficit. And there are no significant cascading effects at this time. That's your imagination.

 

[Marener]

It's only they have an effect, but not the way you think they do. There is no way that you can convince anyone that if we have a net gain from new tariff negotiations that it is not better for our country. That is absolute nonsense

We don’t even know what he wants out of new tariff negotiations. Best case scenario is marginal decrease in tariffs which are already extremely low globally, which is good but not dramatic. But there’s reason to believe that’s not the goal because it would fail to achieve Trump’s original intent of returning manufacturing and reducing the trade debt.

Most likely Trump intends to keep the baseline 10% tariff which is going to seriously impair any deal, maybe even resulting in more trade barriers.

But since no one really knows what he intends, and since things keep changing, businesses aren’t going to green light new investment until things are clearer.

The idea that the only reason to disagree with this policy is because of politics is absolute nonsense.

 

[Marener]

It's really more of a tariff deficit than a trade deficit. And there are no significant cascading effects at this time. That's your imagination.

Theres no significant effects from jumping off a bridge.

At first.

Is predicting a bad outcome just imagination too?

 

[JLW]

Oh you think the risk of recession is greater than 40%? You don't think that a net gain in tariffs will benefit the US? Do tell.

I think stating that Trump “has also dramatically increased the chances for our country to flourish” is delusional. Have you been watching the news? Are you seeing the havoc Trump is causing to supply chains around the worlds? Do you understand the consequences of the falling dollar and the chaotic bond market?

You have a strange definition of what “to flourish” means.

 

[DBA]

We don’t even know what he wants out of new tariff negotiations. Best case scenario is marginal decrease in tariffs which are already extremely low globally, which is good but not dramatic. But there’s reason to believe that’s not the goal because it would fail to achieve Trump’s original intent of returning manufacturing and reducing the trade debt.

Most likely Trump intends to keep the baseline 10% tariff which is going to seriously impair any deal, maybe even resulting in more trade barriers.

But since no one really knows what he intends, and since things keep changing, businesses aren’t going to green light new investment until things are clearer.

The idea that the only reason to disagree with this policy is because of politics is absolute nonsense.

I agree that he should keep quiet and only mention wins, not that we are getting there type stuff.

I think his intentions are two fold. He wants to negotiate lower tariffs, however, if that doesn't work in some cases he is more than willing to bring some manufacturing back to the US. That is the leverage he has. Countries will negotiate, because they do not want to risk losing the US consumer.

 

[DBA]

Theres no significant effects from jumping off a bridge.

At first.

Is predicting a bad outcome just imagination too?

Except that negotiating new trade deals does not have the same certain outcome as jumping off of a bridge. That is your imagination running wild.

 

[eagle1462010]

Someone wake me up when people start jumping off tall buildings.

Yeah I dont want to miss that. Good point.

Ill bring the popcorn.

 

[Marener]

I agree that he should keep quiet and only mention wins, not that we are getting there type stuff.

I think his intentions are two fold. He wants to negotiate lower tariffs, however, if that doesn't work in some cases he is more than willing to bring some manufacturing back to the US. That is the leverage he has. Countries will negotiate, because they do not want to risk losing the US consumer.

Having your cake and eating it too doesn’t usually work.

Tariffs were already extremely low globally. Lowering them further just isn’t going to have the beneficial effect you think. It’s unlikely to be his actual goal.

 

[DBA]

Having your cake and eating it too doesn’t usually work.

Tariffs were already extremely low globally. Lowering them further just isn’t going to have the beneficial effect you think. It’s unlikely to be his actual goal.

We shall see, but I think you severely underestimate the power of the US consumer.

 

[eagle1462010]

 

[DBA]

I think stating that Trump “has also dramatically increased the chances for our country to flourish” is delusional. Have been watching the news? Are you seeing the havoc Trump is causing to supply chains around the worlds? Do you understand the consequences of the falling dollar and the chaotic bond market?

You have a strange definition of what “to flourish” means.

I say to you as well. Just wait. We can revisit this thread when it happens.

 

[Lisa558]

View attachment 1103193

Hit!