- Oct 6, 2008
- 125,093
- 60,647
1.
one paper published in the journal Nature in January 2004 that warned of the loss of thousands of species with a relatively small warming over the next century. http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=29
a. E. O. Wilson suggests the problem is particularly bad, indicating that each year 27,000 species are doomed to extinction, which means 74 a day, or 3 every hour. He notes that the normal rate of extinction for species is around one species per million every year, and explains how, as the result of human actions, this rate is now somewhere between 1000 and 10 000 times greater in some areas of the world, such as the rainforests. About Eco Faith and IDEA
2. Aside from throwing ones hands up an screeching the sky is falling!, what is one to do??? Answer: check the source of the data.
Aynsley Kellow, Professor of Government at the University of Tasmania, did just that, and found that the data was based on a computer model. Despite this, the predictions made by such models are now contained in scientific papers published in leading journals, which gives the status of science to what is often little more than wishful thinking.,,, Kellow notes that a similar warming over the previous century had not left anything like the trail of species devastation being proposed in the paper, yet this observational data was considered irrelevant compared with the virtual world of the models. However virtuous, virtual science is no substitute for the real thing - Opinion
a. Get the point? The bogus numbers are used because they are threatening to the gullible, to force bad public policy. This is not real science, it is conservation science, a very different breed! We often hear that the predictions accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are based on "the science". It's important to realise that this is often a very different type of science to other sciences, [the real science] that explains why a jumbo jet won't fall out of the sky or why a certain treatment will cure a certain disease. Ibid.
3. "The fact is, since the white man arrived in the Americas, there have been no forest bird or mammal extinctions from any cause. "Where are the Corpses? | Reprint
4. The Pacific Research Foundation, a moderate environmental auditor, has used the IUCN Red List, and the Heinz Centers State of the Nations Ecosystems project, that only 2.7 percent of species have gone extinct since the last Ice Age.
a. "So far, only 1 to 2 percent of all species have gone extinct in the groups we can look at clearly, Barnosky's team chose mammals as a starting point because they are well studied today and are well represented in the fossil record going back some 65 million years. Biologists estimate that within the past 500 years, at least 80 mammal species have gone extinct out of a starting total of 5,570 species (1.43%). The team's estimate for the average extinction rate for mammals is less than two extinctions every million years,
Has Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived?
5. So, when envirowackos warn of great numbers and deleterious effects, remember that they are speaking not of real danger, but of desktop dangers. These are computer models, with input by folks whose goal is to prevent human activity rather than to protect habitat.
GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) is a concept common to computer science and mathematics: the quality of output is determined by the quality of the input. So, for example, if a mathematical equation is improperly stated, the answer is unlikely to be correct. Similarly, if incorrect data is input to a program, the output is unlikely to be informative.
What is garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) ? - Definition from WhatIs.com
a. All you have to do is plug the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change into the desktop, and, voila, 33 percent of species are definitely about to go extinct! See The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World's Top Climate Expert, Donna Laframboise, a book that blows the lid off the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
6. It seems that we live in a world where environmental policy is based on the following logic: despite the fact that we have no idea how many species there are by at least one order of magnitude, and despite the fact that only 2.7 percent of known species have gone extinct since the last ice age, we nevertheless believe that one-third of the species on the planet are about to go extinct.
Nickson, Eco-Fascists, p. 202-203.
7. Model builds upon model which builds upon other models, all of which make approximatiosn and assumptions and so on. This is not the kind of work in which to put your beliefs. It it not the kind of work to write treaties or raise taxes. Yet it has become so.
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=29
Conservation science?
Studies show that 91.8 % of all statistics are made up on the spot. True story.
a. E. O. Wilson suggests the problem is particularly bad, indicating that each year 27,000 species are doomed to extinction, which means 74 a day, or 3 every hour. He notes that the normal rate of extinction for species is around one species per million every year, and explains how, as the result of human actions, this rate is now somewhere between 1000 and 10 000 times greater in some areas of the world, such as the rainforests. About Eco Faith and IDEA
2. Aside from throwing ones hands up an screeching the sky is falling!, what is one to do??? Answer: check the source of the data.
Aynsley Kellow, Professor of Government at the University of Tasmania, did just that, and found that the data was based on a computer model. Despite this, the predictions made by such models are now contained in scientific papers published in leading journals, which gives the status of science to what is often little more than wishful thinking.,,, Kellow notes that a similar warming over the previous century had not left anything like the trail of species devastation being proposed in the paper, yet this observational data was considered irrelevant compared with the virtual world of the models. However virtuous, virtual science is no substitute for the real thing - Opinion
a. Get the point? The bogus numbers are used because they are threatening to the gullible, to force bad public policy. This is not real science, it is conservation science, a very different breed! We often hear that the predictions accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are based on "the science". It's important to realise that this is often a very different type of science to other sciences, [the real science] that explains why a jumbo jet won't fall out of the sky or why a certain treatment will cure a certain disease. Ibid.
3. "The fact is, since the white man arrived in the Americas, there have been no forest bird or mammal extinctions from any cause. "Where are the Corpses? | Reprint
4. The Pacific Research Foundation, a moderate environmental auditor, has used the IUCN Red List, and the Heinz Centers State of the Nations Ecosystems project, that only 2.7 percent of species have gone extinct since the last Ice Age.
a. "So far, only 1 to 2 percent of all species have gone extinct in the groups we can look at clearly, Barnosky's team chose mammals as a starting point because they are well studied today and are well represented in the fossil record going back some 65 million years. Biologists estimate that within the past 500 years, at least 80 mammal species have gone extinct out of a starting total of 5,570 species (1.43%). The team's estimate for the average extinction rate for mammals is less than two extinctions every million years,
Has Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived?
5. So, when envirowackos warn of great numbers and deleterious effects, remember that they are speaking not of real danger, but of desktop dangers. These are computer models, with input by folks whose goal is to prevent human activity rather than to protect habitat.
GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) is a concept common to computer science and mathematics: the quality of output is determined by the quality of the input. So, for example, if a mathematical equation is improperly stated, the answer is unlikely to be correct. Similarly, if incorrect data is input to a program, the output is unlikely to be informative.
What is garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) ? - Definition from WhatIs.com
a. All you have to do is plug the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change into the desktop, and, voila, 33 percent of species are definitely about to go extinct! See The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World's Top Climate Expert, Donna Laframboise, a book that blows the lid off the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
6. It seems that we live in a world where environmental policy is based on the following logic: despite the fact that we have no idea how many species there are by at least one order of magnitude, and despite the fact that only 2.7 percent of known species have gone extinct since the last ice age, we nevertheless believe that one-third of the species on the planet are about to go extinct.
Nickson, Eco-Fascists, p. 202-203.
7. Model builds upon model which builds upon other models, all of which make approximatiosn and assumptions and so on. This is not the kind of work in which to put your beliefs. It it not the kind of work to write treaties or raise taxes. Yet it has become so.
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=29
Conservation science?
Studies show that 91.8 % of all statistics are made up on the spot. True story.