Florida Turnout down 250,000

[Charles_Main]

RCP Twitter - @fivethirtyeight - GOP turnout in Florida will likely be just under 1.7m tonight, down from 1.95m in 2008. - 12/31/69.

Consider that. Except for SC (where Newt won) turnout in GOP primaries have been down in every state.

Keep in mind, the Romney winning math is (Everyone who voted for McCain) + (10% of Obama's vote switching side).

This number indicates he isn't likely to acheive either. People are just giving up. Not only is no one switching sides, a lot of Republicans who got excited in 2008 aren't even bothering to show up in 2012.

Worrying about Turn out in a Primary? Most Republicans really don't care who we Nominate, But they do care about Removing Obama. They will turn out when it matters most.

 

[RadiomanATL]

Pure deflection. You said GOP turnout was down. It's not. End of story.

No, actually, it is. Sorry. Less people are voting in these four states than voted last time, in total. Iowa and NH were flat, SC was up, FL was down... but less people total, and the numbers will be even lower than that in the following states now that Romney is "inevitable".

bump...


I think his point might be that you did not say that in your OP... you said...

Consider that. Except for SC (where Newt won) turnout in GOP primaries have been down in every state.

Had you added, 'when taken as a whole' to your OP statement, he might not be arguing so strenuously.

His intellectual dishonesty won't allow him to say he was wrong. Instead he is going to spin, lie and deflect.

Fact: JoeB said GOP turnout was down in all the contests except SC.
Fact: GOP has had record turnout thus far in every state except for Florida.

 

[elvis]

No, actually, it is. Sorry. Less people are voting in these four states than voted last time, in total. Iowa and NH were flat, SC was up, FL was down... but less people total, and the numbers will be even lower than that in the following states now that Romney is "inevitable".

bump...


I think his point might be that you did not say that in your OP... you said...

Consider that. Except for SC (where Newt won) turnout in GOP primaries have been down in every state.

Had you added, 'when taken as a whole' to your OP statement, he might not be arguing so strenuously.

His intellectual dishonesty won't allow him to say he was wrong. Instead he is going to spin, lie and deflect.

Fact: JoeB said GOP turnout was down in all the contests except SC.
Fact: GOP has had record turnout thus far in every state except for Florida.

You're just bigoted against people who are bigoted against mormons.

 

[RadiomanATL]

bump...


I think his point might be that you did not say that in your OP... you said...


Had you added, 'when taken as a whole' to your OP statement, he might not be arguing so strenuously.

His intellectual dishonesty won't allow him to say he was wrong. Instead he is going to spin, lie and deflect.

Fact: JoeB said GOP turnout was down in all the contests except SC.
Fact: GOP has had record turnout thus far in every state except for Florida.

You're just bigoted against people who are bigoted against mormons.

Are you bigoted against people who are bigoted against people who are bigoted towards mormons?

 

[Synthaholic]

RCP Twitter - @fivethirtyeight - GOP turnout in Florida will likely be just under 1.7m tonight, down from 1.95m in 2008. - 12/31/69.

Consider that. Except for SC (where Newt won) turnout in GOP primaries have been down in every state.

Keep in mind, the Romney winning math is (Everyone who voted for McCain) + (10% of Obama's vote switching side).

This number indicates he isn't likely to acheive either. People are just giving up. Not only is no one switching sides, a lot of Republicans who got excited in 2008 aren't even bothering to show up in 2012.

you are basing this liberal circle jerk... on a single TWITTER feed, with no corroboration elsewhere?

wow.

No, he is basing it on Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog, which is fairly unimpeachable when it comes to number-crunching. He is acknowledged by everyone as being one of the very best. He's a young geek, too!

 

[JoeB131]

Guy, you can keep spinning it all day.

These are pathetic turnouts... No one really cares.. This is not the turnout you get rid of an incumbant with.

Romney is not Reagan orClinton.


He's Bob Dole or McCain. Maybe John Kerry.

If elections could be won on hate alone, we'd be at the end of John Kerry's second term right now.

 

[elvis]

His intellectual dishonesty won't allow him to say he was wrong. Instead he is going to spin, lie and deflect.

Fact: JoeB said GOP turnout was down in all the contests except SC.
Fact: GOP has had record turnout thus far in every state except for Florida.

You're just bigoted against people who are bigoted against mormons.

Are you bigoted against people who are bigoted against people who are bigoted towards mormons?

No. I give them preferential treatment.

 

[RadiomanATL]

Guy, you can keep spinning it all day.

These are pathetic turnouts... No one really cares.. This is not the turnout you get rid of an incumbant with.

Romney is not Reagan orClinton.


He's Bob Dole or McCain. Maybe John Kerry.

If elections could be won on hate alone, we'd be at the end of John Kerry's second term right now.

Fact: JoeB says turnout is pathetic.
Fact: Turnout has been record numbers in every state except Florida.

 

[RadiomanATL]

You're just bigoted against people who are bigoted against mormons.

Are you bigoted against people who are bigoted against people who are bigoted towards mormons?

No. I give them preferential treatment.

Awesome!

 

[Synthaholic]

Here is Nate Silver's prediction for Florida:

It turned out Romney 50, Newt 30. Paul ended up with 6%. Take Paul's predicted extra 5+% and give it to Romney and it's almost a perfect prediction.

 

[Synthaholic]

But so much for the meme that the overwhelming desire to remove Obama would have Republicans going to the polls in droves.

 

[JoeB131]

Guy, you can keep spinning it all day.

These are pathetic turnouts... No one really cares.. This is not the turnout you get rid of an incumbant with.

Romney is not Reagan orClinton.


He's Bob Dole or McCain. Maybe John Kerry.

If elections could be won on hate alone, we'd be at the end of John Kerry's second term right now.

Fact: JoeB says turnout is pathetic.
Fact: Turnout has been record numbers in every state except Florida.

1% more than you got 4 years ago is not anything BUT pathetic.

That barely accounts for increases in the voting population.

When you factor out Ron Paul (why do you keep ignoring the Ron Paul thing?) turnout is down in all those states except SC.

Now, frankly, I think we give too much importance to IA and NH. Between them, they eliminated half the field. I would love to be supporting Tim Pawlenty right now, who is a vastly better candidate than any of these jokers. But it's an awful system that rewards unimportant states.

Now, given that-

1) The voter totals were only up marginally.
2) A lot of that was due to the phenominon of Ron Paul
3) There was NO Democratic race occurring, leaving a lot of people open to vote GOP, and they didn't

The sensible person should think, "Jesus, where's the enthusiasm?"

But for the GOP establishment, it was never about winning. It was about beating back the TEA Party rabble.

 

[Chris]

Romney is Tom Dewey or Walter Mondale.

Obama is the Democrats Reagan.

 

[RadiomanATL]

Guy, you can keep spinning it all day.

These are pathetic turnouts... No one really cares.. This is not the turnout you get rid of an incumbant with.

Romney is not Reagan orClinton.


He's Bob Dole or McCain. Maybe John Kerry.

If elections could be won on hate alone, we'd be at the end of John Kerry's second term right now.

Fact: JoeB says turnout is pathetic.
Fact: Turnout has been record numbers in every state except Florida.

1% more than you got 4 years ago is not anything BUT pathetic.

That barely accounts for increases in the voting population.

When you factor out Ron Paul (why do you keep ignoring the Ron Paul thing?) turnout is down in all those states except SC.

Now, frankly, I think we give too much importance to IA and NH. Between them, they eliminated half the field. I would love to be supporting Tim Pawlenty right now, who is a vastly better candidate than any of these jokers. But it's an awful system that rewards unimportant states.

Now, given that-

1) The voter totals were only up marginally.
2) A lot of that was due to the phenominon of Ron Paul
3) There was NO Democratic race occurring, leaving a lot of people open to vote GOP, and they didn't

The sensible person should think, "Jesus, where's the enthusiasm?"

But for the GOP establishment, it was never about winning. It was about beating back the TEA Party rabble.

To JoeB, record turnouts are pathetic turnouts.

 

[JoeB131]

Fact: JoeB says turnout is pathetic.
Fact: Turnout has been record numbers in every state except Florida.

1% more than you got 4 years ago is not anything BUT pathetic.

That barely accounts for increases in the voting population.

When you factor out Ron Paul (why do you keep ignoring the Ron Paul thing?) turnout is down in all those states except SC.

Now, frankly, I think we give too much importance to IA and NH. Between them, they eliminated half the field. I would love to be supporting Tim Pawlenty right now, who is a vastly better candidate than any of these jokers. But it's an awful system that rewards unimportant states.

Now, given that-

1) The voter totals were only up marginally.
2) A lot of that was due to the phenominon of Ron Paul
3) There was NO Democratic race occurring, leaving a lot of people open to vote GOP, and they didn't

The sensible person should think, "Jesus, where's the enthusiasm?"

But for the GOP establishment, it was never about winning. It was about beating back the TEA Party rabble.

To JoeB, record turnouts are pathetic turnouts.

Yes, they are...

For what the GOP is trying to accomplish, absolutely.

You aren't going to win by just getting the guys you got last time.

And you are barely getting them.

McCain lost by 10 million votes. Where are the voters who are thinking twice? Where?

 

[Defiant1]

In 2008 there was a referendum on the PPP ballot to double the Homestead Exemption from $25,000 to $50,000.

I doubt that would bring anyone out to vote though......

 

[RadiomanATL]

1% more than you got 4 years ago is not anything BUT pathetic.

That barely accounts for increases in the voting population.

When you factor out Ron Paul (why do you keep ignoring the Ron Paul thing?) turnout is down in all those states except SC.

Now, frankly, I think we give too much importance to IA and NH. Between them, they eliminated half the field. I would love to be supporting Tim Pawlenty right now, who is a vastly better candidate than any of these jokers. But it's an awful system that rewards unimportant states.

Now, given that-

1) The voter totals were only up marginally.
2) A lot of that was due to the phenominon of Ron Paul
3) There was NO Democratic race occurring, leaving a lot of people open to vote GOP, and they didn't

The sensible person should think, "Jesus, where's the enthusiasm?"

But for the GOP establishment, it was never about winning. It was about beating back the TEA Party rabble.

To JoeB, record turnouts are pathetic turnouts.

Yes, they are...

Thanks for confirming your intellectual dishonesty

 

[Chris]

Romney is toast.

 

[JoeB131]

Romney is Tom Dewey or Walter Mondale.

Obama is the Democrats Reagan.

Dewey came close to winning. It was only because it was a confused 4 way race that he didn't win.

And I don't think Obama will win re-election by Reagan like proportions.

No, I think the best comparison is really John Kerry.

Massachusetts flip-flopper with no clue who can buy the nomination, but can't buy love.

A theme that looks great on paper, (War Hero, Business Genius) until someone examines it closely (Anti-War Hippy, Corporate Bloodsucker).

So a president people aren't thrilled with will squeak by because the other side couldn't make a compelling counter-argument, other than, "He's Electable".

And Obama's bar is really kind of low. All he has to do is win all the states Kerry did, plus Ohio. That's it. He doesn't really have to do as well as he did in 2008.

Romney, on the other hand, has to get back everyone that McCain had, and get 5 million of Obama's supporters to change their minds.

He has to retake no less than 7 of 9 states that Bush won but McCain lost. And he has to do it while not losing states like Missouri, where they still hate Mormons and McCain only squeaked by.

 

[Chris]

It's a long way to the election.

Plenty of time for the tone deaf Romney to make more statements like these...

"I like to fire people"

"I am not concerned about the poor"

"My tax rate is 13%"