History repeats itself...why Democrats are terrified...

[Missourian]

Comment: I noticed a little tidbit of trivia at the top of Real Clear Polling. 2024 polling is looking a lot like another set of polling that Democrats would rather forget...

Look familiar?...

 

[Missourian]

Here's the link...

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

2024 National: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

 

[IM2]

Comment: I noticed a little tidbit of trivia at the top of Real Clear Polling. 2024 polling is looking a lot like another set of polling that Democrats would rather forget...

View attachment 1015965


Look familiar?...

View attachment 1015967

They both ended up getting more votes than Trump.

 

[Missourian]

They both ended up getting more votes than Trump.

Kamala got more votes than Trump? Kamala couldn't even make it to the Iowa caucuses!



If only the country chose presidents by popular vote, this would mean something.

Kamala can join Clinton and Gore with the participation trophy for most votes to the losing candidate.

 

[lafayette]

Now Trumpers (!) are twisting polls' histories?

 

[Missourian]

Did you know that even at with a 7.2 lead in 2020...a 43,000 votes swing from Biden to Trump would have swung the election?

2020 polling...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/02/09/republicans-came-within-90000-votes-controlling-all-washington/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

 

[lafayette]

Sure, Missourian, dream on.,

 

[Missourian]

Now Trumpers (!) are twisting polls' histories?

The polls are the polls, my dude.

Here's some logic that smarter Democrats can follow...see if you can keep up.

All of the following statement are true.

A) Biden came within 43,000 votes of losing with a seven point lead on election day.

B) Clinton had a three point lead on election day.

C) Clinton lost the election.

D) Harris currently has a two point lead in the polls.

Logical Conclusion...

If Harris only has a two point lead on election day, Harris will lose the presidential election.

Harris needs AT LEAST a seven point lead on election day, in aggregate, to have a decent shot of winning.

 

[Freedomisneverfree]

I hope that HORRIBLE dumb street hooker Kamala goes down in flames.

 

[Missourian]

I hope that HORRIBLE dumb street hooker Kamala goes down in flames.

Things aren't looking good for Democrats at the moment.

That's why they sound so desperate.

 

[Rogue AI]

The polls this cycle serve one purpose, to gaslight the masses into watching the election results all night long. It will be the same silly game, calling states only so long as it keeps people watching, even when they could clearly call some states hours before they do. It's just creating unnecessary drama.

I have a feeling it's not nearly as close as they say.

 

[Missourian]

The debate "win" the media crowed about turned into a huge dud, convincing no one...even after being played up on every news channel as the gospel truth.

Americans no longer buy their bullshit...

 

[lafayette]

The polls are the polls, my dude.

Here's some logic that smarter Democrats can follow...see if you can keep up.

All of the following statement are true.

A) Biden came within 43,000 votes of losing with a seven point lead on election day.

B) Clinton had a three point lead on election day.

C) Clinton lost the election.

D) Harris currently has a two point lead in the polls.

Logical Conclusion...

If Harris only has a two point lead on election day, Harris will lose the presidential election.

Harris needs AT LEAST a seven point lead on election day, in aggregate, to have a decent shot of winning.

Missourian has not a clue. The polls cannot 'aggregate' to predict the electoral vote count.

The best we can do is try to figure the individual states, no more than that.

 

[Missourian]

Missourian has not a clue. The polls cannot 'aggregate' to predict the electoral vote count.

The best we can do is try to figure the individual states, no more than that.

If only you were actually as smart as you believe you are.

Too many participation trophies.

Of course we can.

Where Harris sits right now, under a 2 point lead, there is only a 20% chance of her winning the election.



Everyone else is aware of this...why aren't you?

 

[Missourian]

Let me put that 23% in context for you.

Take a quarter and flip it twice.

If it comes up heads twice, Kamala wins.

If it's ANY other combination, tails-heads, tails-tails or heads-tails...Trump wins.

Do you like those odds?

Cuz at 23%...your odds aren't even quite that good.

 

[Care4all]

Did you know that even at with a 7.2 lead in 2020...a 43,000 votes swing from Biden to Trump would have swung the election?

2020 polling...

View attachment 1015972
View attachment 1015979

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/02/09/republicans-came-within-90000-votes-controlling-all-washington/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

I was just wondering...

In a tie...Where congress gets 1 vote per state....

Would a State where Biden won, that by chance or fluke has more House Representatives that were Republican than Democratic, cast their one vote for their state for President, to Trump, even though their citizens chose Biden as the winner when they voted?

Would they use their representative majority, to over rule their citizen's choice via vote, for President?

Or are the state congress critters obligated to the citizens of their state and honor how the citizens voted?

 

[lafayette]

Let me put that 23% in context for you.

Take a quarter and flip it twice.

If it comes up heads twice, Kamala wins.

If it's ANY other combination, tails-heads, tails-tails or heads-tails...Trump wins.

Do you like those odds?

Cuz at 23%...your odds aren't even quite that good.

That is a magic trick, not logic. She is in better shape, much better, than two months ago, and Trump is slipping daily,

 

[lafayette]

I was just wondering...

In a tie...Where congress gets 1 vote per state....

Would a State where Biden won, that by chance or fluke has more House Representatives that were Republican than Democratic, cast their one vote for their state for President, to Trump, even though their citizens chose Biden as the winner when they voted?

Would they use their representative majority, to over rule their citizen's choice via vote, for President?

Or are the state congress critters obligated to the citizens of their state and honor how the citizens voted?

The states' representatives vote. The party with the largest number casts one vote for that state for President.

 

[Independent thinker]

Comment: I noticed a little tidbit of trivia at the top of Real Clear Polling. 2024 polling is looking a lot like another set of polling that Democrats would rather forget...

View attachment 1015965


Look familiar?...

View attachment 1015967

I was just looking at some RCP stuff. If you compare this point of the race to the same time period of 2020:

In the top battlegrounds, Trump is doing 3.7% better now than he did in 2020

In the RCP national average polling, Trump is doing 4.4% better now than he did in 2020

Trump's favorability rating is 5.8% better now than it was at this time in 2020

 

[DBA]

The most encouraging thing to me is that Independents are polling much better for Trump. Democrats are going to vote for their candidate regardless. They aren't free thinkers. Republicans tend to be less in lock-step, so we have to hope the Bush Republicans aren't dumb enough to help gat Kamala elected.