How big is the GOP "base"?

[Mac1958]

I keep hearing about how important the GOP "base" is, I'm curious about how big it is.

Definitions are important in polls, so let's say the "GOP base" is the very vocal and passionate group who want the most down-the-line conservative conservatives possible in office, and who feel that more moderate Republicans like Jeb & Christie & Graham & McCain & Boehner are too moderate and might be referred to as "RINOs".

Let's remember also that there are people who will vote for their party pretty much automatically even if their candidate is not down-the-line conservative, so I'd assume they would not count here.

Also, please note that I have used "mango" instead of "pineapple", because I like mangos better and I'm desperately trying to start a trend.

.

 

[Derideo_Te]

Going by the definition you used in your OP I picked the smallest number because although they are very vocal they are not that large in actual numbers.

20% of the GOP is only 6% of the overall electorate.

And yes, that sounds about right for the extremist rightwing fringe.

"Out, out, brief candle! Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Macbeth Quote (Act V, Scene V).

 

[USNavyVet]

Typical liberal to create your own definition for words.

 

[Mac1958]

Typical liberal to create your own definition for words.

Please provide your own definition (that would definitely be helpful) and cast a vote.

I realize that 98% of threads on this board are flames, but this is a serious poll.

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[sarahgop]

and all we need to do is sit out like last time and the rubio/bush cabal loses.

 

[PredFan]

Big enough to not be ignored.

 

[USNavyVet]

Typical liberal to create your own definition for words.

Please provide your own definition (that would definitely be helpful) and cast a vote.

I realize that 98% of threads on this board are flames, but this is a serious poll.

.

No this isn't a serious poll or the OP would have used the accepted definition instead of making one up that targets a group he doesn't like.

 

[JoeB131]

They probably aren't big enough to influence the general election, but they are the ones who get out and vote during midterms and in primaries, which is what makes them important.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Three points:

1.) until the next election, we can only go on the data from exit-polls from the last national PRESIDENTIAL election (2012) and the internals from many, many, many polls. Beyond that, we can start to amass a data-line from current polling to guestimate the size and strength of both parties and the ideological spectrum.

2.) And when current polls are taken, just of the GOP, some of them ask questions like "are you very conservative, somewhat conservative, less conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal or very liberal".

If we assume that the "base" of the GOP is very conservative to somewhat conservative", then considering the flight of former Republican liberals from the party, I would go with 40%-60%, BUT this will vary from state to state.

I am a really big fan of voter self-identification in polls. In 2004, the polling, based on Voter self-identification, showed a R+2 advantage. The exit polls showed a R +2 advantage. Bush won by +2.46%. The independents were split pretty evenly between Bush and Kerry.

In 2008, the voter self-identification was D+8 and the exit polls showed from D+8 to D+9.
Obama won by +7.26%. All of the indicators of a large Obama win were confirmed easily on election night.

In 2012, the voter self-identification in most all polls was from D+6 to D+8. The national exit poll showed D+7 and battleground after battleground showed a pretty consistent D+7 to D+8 (Colorado, Ohio, Virginia). Obama won by +3.86%, which means he lost a lot of ground among Independents.

So, if voter self identification in 2016 polling shows a sharp rise - or fall - of GOP voters, I will trust that as well.

I really do think that the hard-core base of the GOP, which has hardened, has also grown, and that the Big Sky States plus most of the deep South form the ideological core of the GOP.

I want to add that the voter SELF- identification in many, many polls, all across the spectrum, are showing from D+5 to D+9 right now. This figure will narrow to just one big composite figure as time passes. I am suspecting that we will probably land at D+7 by election night, 2016.

 

[Mac1958]

Typical liberal to create your own definition for words.

Please provide your own definition (that would definitely be helpful) and cast a vote.

I realize that 98% of threads on this board are flames, but this is a serious poll.

.

No this isn't a serious poll or the OP would have used the accepted definition instead of making one up that targets a group he doesn't like.

Then what is the "accepted definition"? All you have to do is type it and hit "ENTER".

.

 

[guno]

Three points:

1.) until the next election, we can only go on the data from exit-polls from the last national election and the internals from many, many, many polls. Beyond that, we can start to amass a data-line from current polling to guestimate the size and strength of both parties and the ideological spectrum.

2.) And when current polls are taken, just of the GOP, some of them ask questions like "are you very conservative, somewhat conservative, less conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal or very liberal".

If we assume that the "base" of the GOP is very conservative to somewhat conservative", then considering the flight of former Republican liberals from the party, I would go with 40%-60%, BUT this will vary from state to state.

I am a really big fan of voter self-identification in polls. In 2004, the polling, based on Voter self-identification, showed a R+2 advantage. The exit polls showed a R +2 advantage. Bush won by +2.46%. The independents were split pretty evenly between Bush and Kerry.

In 2008, the voter self-identification was +8 and the exit polls showed from +8 to +9.
Obama won by +7.26%. All of the indicators of a large Obama win were confirmed easily on election night.

In 2012, the voter self-identification in most all polls was from D+6 to D+8. The national exit poll showed D+7 and battleground after battleground showed a pretty consistent D+7 to D+8 (Colorado, Ohio, Virginia). Obama won by +3.86%, which means he lost a lot of ground among Independents.

So, if voter self identification in 2016 polling shows a sharp rise - or fall - of GOP voters, I will trust that as well.

I really do think that the hard-core base of the GOP, which has hardened, has also grown, and that the Big Sky States plus most of the deep South form the ideological core of the GOP.

I want to add that the voter SELF- identification in many, many polls, all across the spectrum, are showing from D+5 to D+9 right now. This figure will narrow to just one big composite figure as time passes.

the Big Sky States plus most of the deep South form the ideological core of the GOP.

Which is not enough to win in the general Election given the population and demographics nationally . IMO

 

[USNavyVet]

Typical liberal to create your own definition for words.

Please provide your own definition (that would definitely be helpful) and cast a vote.

I realize that 98% of threads on this board are flames, but this is a serious poll.

.

No this isn't a serious poll or the OP would have used the accepted definition instead of making one up that targets a group he doesn't like.

Then what is the "accepted definition"? All you have to do is type it and hit "ENTER".

.

So you don't know how to use a search engine? Google? Bing? You should have done your homework before creating the OP, but it was just a troll post anyway so no need to do research, huh?

 

[Mac1958]

Typical liberal to create your own definition for words.

Please provide your own definition (that would definitely be helpful) and cast a vote.

I realize that 98% of threads on this board are flames, but this is a serious poll.

.

No this isn't a serious poll or the OP would have used the accepted definition instead of making one up that targets a group he doesn't like.

Then what is the "accepted definition"? All you have to do is type it and hit "ENTER".

.

So you don't know how to use a search engine? Google? Bing? You should have done your homework before creating the OP, but it was just a troll post anyway so no need to do research, huh?

I don't know why this needs to be so difficult.

I'm pretty sure there is not one (1) definition of the phrase "GOP base". Instead of being cranky and evasive, perhaps you can just contribute to the thread.

.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Three points:

1.) until the next election, we can only go on the data from exit-polls from the last national election and the internals from many, many, many polls. Beyond that, we can start to amass a data-line from current polling to guestimate the size and strength of both parties and the ideological spectrum.

2.) And when current polls are taken, just of the GOP, some of them ask questions like "are you very conservative, somewhat conservative, less conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal or very liberal".

If we assume that the "base" of the GOP is very conservative to somewhat conservative", then considering the flight of former Republican liberals from the party, I would go with 40%-60%, BUT this will vary from state to state.

I am a really big fan of voter self-identification in polls. In 2004, the polling, based on Voter self-identification, showed a R+2 advantage. The exit polls showed a R +2 advantage. Bush won by +2.46%. The independents were split pretty evenly between Bush and Kerry.

In 2008, the voter self-identification was +8 and the exit polls showed from +8 to +9.
Obama won by +7.26%. All of the indicators of a large Obama win were confirmed easily on election night.

In 2012, the voter self-identification in most all polls was from D+6 to D+8. The national exit poll showed D+7 and battleground after battleground showed a pretty consistent D+7 to D+8 (Colorado, Ohio, Virginia). Obama won by +3.86%, which means he lost a lot of ground among Independents.

So, if voter self identification in 2016 polling shows a sharp rise - or fall - of GOP voters, I will trust that as well.

I really do think that the hard-core base of the GOP, which has hardened, has also grown, and that the Big Sky States plus most of the deep South form the ideological core of the GOP.

I want to add that the voter SELF- identification in many, many polls, all across the spectrum, are showing from D+5 to D+9 right now. This figure will narrow to just one big composite figure as time passes.

the Big Sky States plus most of the deep South form the ideological core of the GOP.

Which is not enough to win in the general Election given the population and demographics nationally . IMO

Indeed. Assuming Democratic Party dominance on both the East and West coasts, plus the Acela states and more than 1/2 of the Midwest, for the last 4 cycles it has boiled down (in varying degrees) to: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Colorado. Iowa, currently worth 88 EV.

Forget talk of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan or Oregon. Pennsylvania and Michigan are now 6-for-6 D states in national presidential elections. Wisconsin and Oregon are now 7-for-7 D states and Minnesota is now a 10-for-10 D state in national presidential elections. The battlegrounds have shifted and so has the thinking about the "Trifecta". People used to think "Ohio, Florida, Pennyslvania" as the Trifecta. Not any more. It is now a Quntifecta: "Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado". Whoever wins 3 of 5 is going to win the GE, plain and simple.

 

[Mac1958]

and all we need to do is sit out like last time and the rubio/bush cabal loses.

I've read that many did that.

You think it would be a good idea to do it again?

.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

They probably aren't big enough to influence the general election, but they are the ones who get out and vote during midterms and in primaries, which is what makes them important.

Correct.

And in order to win General Elections, the presidency in particular, the GOP needs to attract independents and weak ('Reagan') democrats.

 

[Seawytch]

The base is the 19-20% that turns out every election...even the odd numbered ones.

 

[amrchaos]

GOP represents at least 80% of its base. The other 20% are Tea party patriots that know something is wrong and just can't put their finger on it.

So they are out looking for that one candidate that will turn the GOP back to its former Glory of kicking liberal asses and building America's respect.

 

[Derideo_Te]

It is now a Quntifecta: "Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado". Whoever wins 3 of 5 is going to win the GE, plain and simple.

A Jeb/Kasich ticket would be strong with both FL and OH. That means they would only need one out of the other 3 states to pull it off.

That is the GOP's best case scenario from my perspective.

Right now getting to that best case ticket is looking iffy.