CDZ How Dangerous is the Collapse of China?

[william the wie]

The next warring states period in China will see nuclear armed warlords and the Communist party is the longest ruling Legalist (command economy) dynasty in more than 2,200 years. How long to Civil War.?

 

[Mr. H.]

Well, if their economy totally collapses it appears that war would be one option for giving it a jump-start.

 

[CultureCitizen]

Ten years, if ever. Most of the debt is domestic. It should be relatively easy to make a debt write-off iv it boils down to that.

 

[Agit8r]

They can always sell their fat stack of T Bills to keep their economy afloat... if it came to that.

 

[DarkFury]

Ten years, if ever. Most of the debt is domestic. It should be relatively easy to make a debt write-off iv it boils down to that.

They have had two major devalues of their currency in the last year. That increases debt INSIDE the country. Not a good thing when trying to maintain a civil populace.

 

[CultureCitizen]

Ten years, if ever. Most of the debt is domestic. It should be relatively easy to make a debt write-off iv it boils down to that.

They have had two major devalues of their currency in the last year. That increases debt INSIDE the country. Not a good thing when trying to maintain a civil populace.

The number of devaluations is of no importance.
What matters is the ratio of devaluation. In January 6 of 2014 the exchange rate was 6.04. Right now it is 6.40. Which means a devaluation of 6% in one and a half year .It has been a small devaluation.

In the same period the euro has gone from 0.72 to 0.87, a whooping 20% and the mexican peso from 13 to 17 an astounding 30%!!
In terms of devaluation the chinese are beter off than the EU or Mexico, by far.

XE.com - USD/CNY Chart

Now, I do not want to minimize the danger of the growth of private debt in China, it is a very dangerous situation: China will probably fall into recesion ( If they do not I'll have to tip my hat to the prowless of Chinese economists), but "wheels comming of and bombs dropping ?" . No.

 

[I amso IR]

A serious rebellion in China? The Chinese military will walk on it and stomp it too microscopic oblivion. That is why they have such a large army. The threat to China is Islam on its borders! They also will be walked upon not to emerge for another 2000 years. Warlords with nukes? Stop believing Hollywood and the stupidity issuing forth from there. Another serious threat to China is North Korea. China does not need it's border with that rouge state endangered by that rouge state. If China moves in any direction it will be towards Pyongyang, North Korea and that confrontation will light up Japan and it's homeboys. South Korea needs to get off of it's butt and have some serious negotiations with the North or be prepared to go north to stop the Chinese. That could be what unites Korea in the long run. China, for all it is, is hamstrung and knows it. China knows only to well it can't win anything by nuking itself or anyone else for that matter. Not to even mention Russia. The Commies, in general, have serious problems and are also well aware them.

 

[Damaged Eagle]

If there is a war where nukes and other crap starts getting thrown around hopefully our high tech stations will take out most of it. Hit a incoming warhead with 5 or more gigawatts of directed energy should disable just about anything that can be thrown our way.

*****SMILE*****

 

[jwoodie]

Chance of China collapsing: 10%

Chance of this leading to war: 10%

Chance of both happening: 1%