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All the conventional wisdom.....and I mean all....has been dead wrong in this election cycle. Anyone who thinks Trump is a push over in the general election is deluded.
Maybe this really is the death of the traditional Conservative movement. If that is the case...so be it. The voters have spoken and Reagan has been out of office for almost 30 years. Time to move on.
We will see...
All the conventional wisdom.....and I mean all....has been dead wrong in this election cycle. Anyone who thinks Trump is a push over in the general election is deluded.
Maybe this really is the death of the traditional Conservative movement. If that is the case...so be it. The voters have spoken and Reagan has been out of office for almost 30 years. Time to move on.
Yes, you could be right. Donald has given his stances on issues, many of which are anything but conservative, and the rabid masses of low information whites have gobbled them up. It is their right to be misled...
All the conventional wisdom.....and I mean all....has been dead wrong in this election cycle. Anyone who thinks Trump is a push over in the general election is deluded.
Maybe this really is the death of the traditional Conservative movement. If that is the case...so be it. The voters have spoken and Reagan has been out of office for almost 30 years. Time to move on.
Yes, you could be right. Donald has given his stances on issues, many of which are anything but conservative, and the rabid masses of low information whites have gobbled them up. It is their right to be misled...
And Hillary hasn't misled low information blacks (and everyone else)? Give me a fucking break.
I'm sure "Stats" will pop in and explain this all. The boy seems to be MIA.We will see...
I like your post in the sense Nate Silver is usually correct. But as he stated.....he has been mostly dead wrong about Trump just like everyone else.
Every element of conventional wisdom in this election cycle has been wrong.....for both Parties. Remember when Bernie was a "fringe" candidate and had zero chance. Remember the pundits saying Hillary would lock up the nomination is March?
Just like the GOP.....all wrong.
I ain't making NOOOOOOOOOOOOO damn predictions of ANY kind !
dipshit RW's could elect a carrier pigeon next week for all we know. The rest of the year is a popcorn event.
I ain't making NOOOOOOOOOOOOO damn predictions of ANY kind !
dipshit RW's could elect a carrier pigeon next week for all we know. The rest of the year is a popcorn event.
Silver's usually pretty on the nose when it comes to these things specifically because he approaches things in a fairly cold analytical way. He drives folks nuts when he's calling out nonsense among "their guys" but he's almost always right.By his own admission, Silver has been flummoxed by Trump all along.
He's quite often dead nuts on the screws, but right now it seems to me he's looking for explanations to fill the voids in his normally stats-driven analysis.
I don't read Silver, which I do, for that type of armchair nonsense. I come here for that shit....lol.
Why Republican Voters Decided On Trump
I like his explanation of the "tribal" theory. Poor Donald is going to show the GOP what a clueless liberal he is very shortly. The GOP will change overnight.
Silver's usually pretty on the nose when it comes to these things specifically because he approaches things in a fairly cold analytical way. He drives folks nuts when he's calling out nonsense among "their guys" but he's almost always right.By his own admission, Silver has been flummoxed by Trump all along.
He's quite often dead nuts on the screws, but right now it seems to me he's looking for explanations to fill the voids in his normally stats-driven analysis.
I don't read Silver, which I do, for that type of armchair nonsense. I come here for that shit....lol.
Where he got it wrong on Trump (which he goes into in that article) is that he underestimated how weak the GOP elites were and how weak the Media turned out to be. Trump got the equivalent of $2 billion dollars of free advertising from the media. I just don't see that continuing once it's Trump vs. Clinton. In addition, the GOP never really threw its weight behind any of the candidates nor took any efforts to guide or control the process. If the GOP's going to run their primaries like this, let's just do away with the national parties and primaries and just put everyone on the ballot in November and have a run off.
One thing that was different with Trump, is that the media DID do stories on his flip flopping from a liberal to half misstated conservative positions on everything from abortion and taxes to for policy, and often flip flopping even on a weekly basis. But people who voted for him did so anyway. I think that's what Silver meant by 'tribal.'Silver's usually pretty on the nose when it comes to these things specifically because he approaches things in a fairly cold analytical way. He drives folks nuts when he's calling out nonsense among "their guys" but he's almost always right.By his own admission, Silver has been flummoxed by Trump all along.
He's quite often dead nuts on the screws, but right now it seems to me he's looking for explanations to fill the voids in his normally stats-driven analysis.
I don't read Silver, which I do, for that type of armchair nonsense. I come here for that shit....lol.
Where he got it wrong on Trump (which he goes into in that article) is that he underestimated how weak the GOP elites were and how weak the Media turned out to be. Trump got the equivalent of $2 billion dollars of free advertising from the media. I just don't see that continuing once it's Trump vs. Clinton. In addition, the GOP never really threw its weight behind any of the candidates nor took any efforts to guide or control the process. If the GOP's going to run their primaries like this, let's just do away with the national parties and primaries and just put everyone on the ballot in November and have a run off.
Yep, Silver is very often right. I guess for me I'm more on board with statistical analysis than theories not backed by that type of data when it comes to what I'm prone to accept as 'analysis' from Silver.
One can argue their points rationally and even draw parallels, or whatever, it's what 'pundits' do every day. He does do that, but at the end of the day, without that rigorous statistical analysis that he's known for, to me, his opinions holds no more water than anyone else's.
What happens with the media going forward is anyone's guess. I doubt Trump's mouth will stop spewing, so they'll keep covering him I imagine. To the extent that they have been? I dunno, but if it drives ratings I don't see them stopping doing what's in their own best interests, as that's what they've been doing all along.
