An interesting analysis of Mueller's legal strategy by Christopher Bates:
Donald Trump has many specific things to be worried about when it comes to Russiagate. And speaking more broadly, he should probably be concerned about this: His administration is populated largely with political amateurs, while Robert Mueller's crack team of lawyers is made up of seasoned pros who know as well as anyone how Washington works, and how to handle the justice system. It's not unlike Usain Bolt racing against the best sprinter from East Cupcake Junior High.
Now that legal experts have had a few days to parse the charges that Mueller did (and did not) file, his master-level strategy is becoming apparent. The decision to charge George Papadopoulos with just one crime, when he probably committed a dozen, is pretty basic stuff when it comes to striking a plea deal. However, the charges against Paul Manafort (and Rick Gates) reflect much more sophistication. Thus far, Donald Trump's former campaign manager is only on the hook for financial crimes that predate 2016. This is more than enough for now, since the goal is simply to get Manafort to flip on Trump.
But what if Trump pardons Manafort? Well, that is why Mueller has left tax fraud, soliciting stolen goods, and other crimes uncharged—so that he can take this show to state court, as needed, and beyond the President's pardon power. Normally, it would not be necessary to proceed so cautiously, since it is generally possible to prosecute the same crime at the state and federal levels without double jeopardy attaching. In other words, a person could be prosecuted for federal tax fraud, pardoned, and then still be prosecuted for state-level tax fraud. But although this is the usual situation, there are a few states whose laws forbid prosecution of a crime that's already been adjudicated at the federal level, most notably...New York.
Adding it all up, and it is as plain as day that Mueller has not only left himself a backup plan, but that he has specifically got New York in mind, if needed. So, Trump cannot save Manafort, something that Manafort's attorneys will soon point out to him, if they haven't already. Which means he will have to decide between doing time in the big house to save his former boss, or to flip on Trump.
Donald Trump has many specific things to be worried about when it comes to Russiagate. And speaking more broadly, he should probably be concerned about this: His administration is populated largely with political amateurs, while Robert Mueller's crack team of lawyers is made up of seasoned pros who know as well as anyone how Washington works, and how to handle the justice system. It's not unlike Usain Bolt racing against the best sprinter from East Cupcake Junior High.
Now that legal experts have had a few days to parse the charges that Mueller did (and did not) file, his master-level strategy is becoming apparent. The decision to charge George Papadopoulos with just one crime, when he probably committed a dozen, is pretty basic stuff when it comes to striking a plea deal. However, the charges against Paul Manafort (and Rick Gates) reflect much more sophistication. Thus far, Donald Trump's former campaign manager is only on the hook for financial crimes that predate 2016. This is more than enough for now, since the goal is simply to get Manafort to flip on Trump.
But what if Trump pardons Manafort? Well, that is why Mueller has left tax fraud, soliciting stolen goods, and other crimes uncharged—so that he can take this show to state court, as needed, and beyond the President's pardon power. Normally, it would not be necessary to proceed so cautiously, since it is generally possible to prosecute the same crime at the state and federal levels without double jeopardy attaching. In other words, a person could be prosecuted for federal tax fraud, pardoned, and then still be prosecuted for state-level tax fraud. But although this is the usual situation, there are a few states whose laws forbid prosecution of a crime that's already been adjudicated at the federal level, most notably...New York.
Adding it all up, and it is as plain as day that Mueller has not only left himself a backup plan, but that he has specifically got New York in mind, if needed. So, Trump cannot save Manafort, something that Manafort's attorneys will soon point out to him, if they haven't already. Which means he will have to decide between doing time in the big house to save his former boss, or to flip on Trump.
