I’m in Virginia - a formerly blue state - that is now tied.The Executive Branch has become almost unstoppable
Think of Caesar entering Rome after the conquests
There are now about 150,000 Jews in the state, 120,000 in Northern Virginia and the majority of them Democrats. If 10% of them switch sides, that’s 12,000 votes for Trump instead of Biden - a swing of 24,000 votes.
It’s even more pronounced with blacks. There are 1.5 million blacks in the state. If 10% of blacks switch, that’s 150,000 votes that goes to Trump instead of Biden, swing of 300,000.
Total difference: 325,000 in these two groups alone.
Now let’s consider Hispanics, who are abandoning Biden in large numbers. There are 860,000 Hispanics, so let’s say 15% switch about 120,000 for a total difference of 240,000. Add to the 325,000 votes from above, and there is almost a 600,00 swing from these minority groups.
Now let’s look at whites - 5 million in the state. Let’s say 2.5 million were for Biden. if 10% switch, that’s 250,000 more for Trump, and a swing of 500,000.
ANALYSIS: There can very likely be a swing of 1.1 million in Trump’s favor. Of course, diving deeper, not everyone in the population is a voter, and half were voting Trump anyway, so let’s cut the number by 60%. That is STILL a swing of 440,000 votes for Trump.
News flash: Biden won the state in 2020 with 450,000 votes.