Only 6 days left, here is where Trump stands in the race:

[U2Edge]

LOL. He has already won Florida, and NO PRESIDENT has ever been elected to office without Florida, so take your Fake Polls and shove them up your mask.

You could not be more wrong. There have in fact been 11 Presidential Elections where the winner lost Florida but still moved into, or stayed in, the White House!

Bill Clinton - 1992
Calvin Coolidge - 1924
Warren Harding - 1920
William Taft - 1908
Theodore Roosevelt - 1904
William McKinley - 1900
William McKinley - 1896
Benjamin Harrison - 1888
James Garfield - 1880
Abraham Lincoln - 1864
Abraham Lincoln - 1860


BIDEN currently has a lead over Trump in Florida in the latest average of polls from Real Clear Politics:

FLORIDA 2020 with 3 days to go before Election:
BIDEN: 48.4% (1.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 47.2%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

BIDEN has many paths to victory without Florida. Biden could even lose Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida and still win the election. That is why I don't pick any of them as key swing states for BIDEN to win. They are not must win states for BIDEN. Trump on the other hand has almost no path to 270 without Florida.

 

[U2Edge]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 10/31/2020, 3 days before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 51.3% (+7.8% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5%

The popular vote isn't the Presidential Electorate. Weird that you still aren't clear on this. It's only been this way for over 200 years and 58 presidential elections.

... WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.3% (+6.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.9%

Well, if the polls are right, this is going to be a wipeout, but, polls historically have underpolled Trump support and over polled his opponents support. For example, in WI, Trump over performed the final RCP average by +7.2%. If he does that again, he wins WI.

... MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 50.0% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5% ...

He overperformed the final RCP poll by 3.7%, so, if history repeats, he loses MI.

... PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.4% (+3.7% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.7%...

He overperformed by 2.6% so, if history repeats, he loses PA.

... ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 47.4% (0.6% over Biden)
BIDEN: 46.8%

Here he under performed by 0.5% - so, if history repeats, he wins AZ.

If Biden only manages to flip PA and MI, Trump still wins.

View attachment 409309​

Have pollsters corrected their models that got 2016 so wrong? Who knows? They certainly haven't proven they have. What I hear are claims that they weren't really wrong, when clearly they were. Claiming that they weren't really wrong, is the answer that requires them to make no real changes. So, we'll see. I think we'll have a pretty good idea how the night is shaping up in about an hour after the states in the east time zone close.

Over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is also the winner of the Electoral College!

Overall BIDEN is performing much better than Clinton against Trump, enough to erase any equivalent swings from the polls to the real results back in 2016 in the few states where RCP was wrong. RCP correctly predicted the winner in 46 out of 50 states in 2016. It also correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote, and was so accurate that it nearly predicted the exact percentages.

Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin were the only states that Real Clear Politics failed to pick the winner.
Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan were all within the margin of error so RCP was correct in determining they were essentially toss ups.

The only state RCP was really off on was Wisconsin. That's it. Very accurate polling. It was determined that pollsters were off in the compositions of samples that they used for the state, under-sampling certain demographic groups while over-sampling others.

By every measure you can think of, BIDEN is in a good spot. An Electoral College victory with between 340 to 413 electoral votes for BIDEN is likely.

 

[Zorro!]

LOL. He has already won Florida, and NO PRESIDENT has ever been elected to office without Florida, so take your Fake Polls and shove them up your mask.

You could not be more wrong. There have in fact been 11 Presidential Elections where the winner lost Florida but still moved into, or stayed in, the White House!

Bill Clinton - 1992
Calvin Coolidge - 1924
Warren Harding - 1920
William Taft - 1908
Theodore Roosevelt - 1904
William McKinley - 1900
William McKinley - 1896
Benjamin Harrison - 1888
James Garfield - 1880
Abraham Lincoln - 1864
Abraham Lincoln - 1860


BIDEN currently has a lead over Trump in Florida in the latest average of polls from Real Clear Politics:

FLORIDA 2020 with 3 days to go before Election:
BIDEN: 48.4% (1.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 47.2%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

BIDEN has many paths to victory without Florida. Biden could even lose Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida and still win the election. That is why I don't pick any of them as key swing states for BIDEN to win. They are not must win states for BIDEN. Trump on the other hand has almost no path to 270 without Florida.

Your point is not particularly interesting.

If Biden takes ANY of states shown below in in Red, its going to be a very long night for Trump.
If Trump takes ANY of the states shown below in Blue, it's going to be a very long night for Biden.

If the States go down as expected, Red for Trump, Blue for Biden, then it will come down to WI and PA.

​

If this is where the race ends up, then Trump has to take WI OR PA to win, whereas, Biden has to take WI AND PA to win.

 

[Zorro!]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 10/31/2020, 3 days before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 51.3% (+7.8% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5%

The popular vote isn't the Presidential Electorate. Weird that you still aren't clear on this. It's only been this way for over 200 years and 58 presidential elections.

... WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.3% (+6.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.9%

Well, if the polls are right, this is going to be a wipeout, but, polls historically have underpolled Trump support and over polled his opponents support. For example, in WI, Trump over performed the final RCP average by +7.2%. If he does that again, he wins WI.

... MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 50.0% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5% ...

He overperformed the final RCP poll by 3.7%, so, if history repeats, he loses MI.

... PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.4% (+3.7% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.7%...

He overperformed by 2.6% so, if history repeats, he loses PA.

... ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 47.4% (0.6% over Biden)
BIDEN: 46.8%

Here he under performed by 0.5% - so, if history repeats, he wins AZ.

If Biden only manages to flip PA and MI, Trump still wins.

View attachment 409309​

Have pollsters corrected their models that got 2016 so wrong? Who knows? They certainly haven't proven they have. What I hear are claims that they weren't really wrong, when clearly they were. Claiming that they weren't really wrong, is the answer that requires them to make no real changes. So, we'll see. I think we'll have a pretty good idea how the night is shaping up in about an hour after the states in the east time zone close.

...It was determined that pollsters were off in the compositions of samples that they used for the state, under-sampling certain demographic groups while over-sampling others...

This is known. What is unknown is whether they have corrected for this. All we know for sure is that the last time they claimed they had it right, that they were wrong.

... By every measure you can think of, BIDEN is in a good spot....

Only by the measure that the polls are right, which is the same position Crooked Hillary was in at this time.

... An Electoral College victory with between 340 to 413 electoral votes for BIDEN is likely.

And landslide was declared to be highly likely for Hillary at this point as well.

We'll know soon enough in the polls match the electorate or if they blew it again, as badly as they blew the last one.

 

[U2Edge]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 10/31/2020, 3 days before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 51.3% (+7.8% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5%

The popular vote isn't the Presidential Electorate. Weird that you still aren't clear on this. It's only been this way for over 200 years and 58 presidential elections.

... WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.3% (+6.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.9%

Well, if the polls are right, this is going to be a wipeout, but, polls historically have underpolled Trump support and over polled his opponents support. For example, in WI, Trump over performed the final RCP average by +7.2%. If he does that again, he wins WI.

... MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 50.0% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5% ...

He overperformed the final RCP poll by 3.7%, so, if history repeats, he loses MI.

... PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.4% (+3.7% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.7%...

He overperformed by 2.6% so, if history repeats, he loses PA.

... ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 47.4% (0.6% over Biden)
BIDEN: 46.8%

Here he under performed by 0.5% - so, if history repeats, he wins AZ.

If Biden only manages to flip PA and MI, Trump still wins.

View attachment 409309​

Have pollsters corrected their models that got 2016 so wrong? Who knows? They certainly haven't proven they have. What I hear are claims that they weren't really wrong, when clearly they were. Claiming that they weren't really wrong, is the answer that requires them to make no real changes. So, we'll see. I think we'll have a pretty good idea how the night is shaping up in about an hour after the states in the east time zone close.

...It was determined that pollsters were off in the compositions of samples that they used for the state, under-sampling certain demographic groups while over-sampling others...

This is known. What is unknown is whether they have corrected for this. All we know for sure is that the last time they claimed they had it right, that they were wrong.

... By every measure you can think of, BIDEN is in a good spot....

Only by the measure that the polls are right, which is the same position Crooked Hillary was in at this time.

... An Electoral College victory with between 340 to 413 electoral votes for BIDEN is likely.

And landslide was declared to be highly likely for Hillary at this point as well.

We'll know soon enough in the polls match the electorate or if they blew it again, as badly as they blew the last one.

The pollsters did not blow the 2016 election. Again, Real Clear Politics average of the polls correctly predicted the winner in 46 out of 50 states in 2016.

RCP also correctly predicted the popular vote winner and came very close to predicting the actual percentages for Trump and Clinton when it came to the popular vote.

Also, Polling has a much longer history than 2016! Trumpers and other's who doubt the polls keep saying 2016 over and over again. But overall polling has a good record and predicting winners and losers in Presidential elections for several decades now. So that is something you should keep in perspective when looking at 2020 poll numbers.

 

[U2Edge]

LOL. He has already won Florida, and NO PRESIDENT has ever been elected to office without Florida, so take your Fake Polls and shove them up your mask.

You could not be more wrong. There have in fact been 11 Presidential Elections where the winner lost Florida but still moved into, or stayed in, the White House!

Bill Clinton - 1992
Calvin Coolidge - 1924
Warren Harding - 1920
William Taft - 1908
Theodore Roosevelt - 1904
William McKinley - 1900
William McKinley - 1896
Benjamin Harrison - 1888
James Garfield - 1880
Abraham Lincoln - 1864
Abraham Lincoln - 1860


BIDEN currently has a lead over Trump in Florida in the latest average of polls from Real Clear Politics:

FLORIDA 2020 with 3 days to go before Election:
BIDEN: 48.4% (1.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 47.2%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

BIDEN has many paths to victory without Florida. Biden could even lose Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida and still win the election. That is why I don't pick any of them as key swing states for BIDEN to win. They are not must win states for BIDEN. Trump on the other hand has almost no path to 270 without Florida.

Your point is not particularly interesting.

If Biden takes ANY of states shown below in in Red, its going to be a very long night for Trump.
If Trump takes ANY of the states shown below in Blue, it's going to be a very long night for Biden.

If the States go down as expected, Red for Trump, Blue for Biden, then it will come down to WI and PA.

View attachment 409328
​

If this is where the race ends up, then Trump has to take WI OR PA to win, whereas, Biden has to take WI AND PA to win.

The problem with your map is that New Hampshire and Wisconsin are already Biden's. BIDEN has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump has of winning New Hampshire or Wisconsin based on the latest polling. A much better chance.

In fact, Biden has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump has of winning PA.

So the states you have in Brown should be Blue. Then there are several red states that should be listed as toss ups in Brown like North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and even Texas. In all of those "RED STATES", the polls show Trump and Biden within 3 percentage points of each other.

While in PA, WI, and NH, Biden has leads of 3.7%, 6.4%, and 11% respectively.

 

[Zorro!]

LOL. He has already won Florida, and NO PRESIDENT has ever been elected to office without Florida, so take your Fake Polls and shove them up your mask.

You could not be more wrong. There have in fact been 11 Presidential Elections where the winner lost Florida but still moved into, or stayed in, the White House!

Bill Clinton - 1992
Calvin Coolidge - 1924
Warren Harding - 1920
William Taft - 1908
Theodore Roosevelt - 1904
William McKinley - 1900
William McKinley - 1896
Benjamin Harrison - 1888
James Garfield - 1880
Abraham Lincoln - 1864
Abraham Lincoln - 1860


BIDEN currently has a lead over Trump in Florida in the latest average of polls from Real Clear Politics:

FLORIDA 2020 with 3 days to go before Election:
BIDEN: 48.4% (1.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 47.2%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

BIDEN has many paths to victory without Florida. Biden could even lose Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida and still win the election. That is why I don't pick any of them as key swing states for BIDEN to win. They are not must win states for BIDEN. Trump on the other hand has almost no path to 270 without Florida.

Your point is not particularly interesting.

If Biden takes ANY of states shown below in in Red, its going to be a very long night for Trump.
If Trump takes ANY of the states shown below in Blue, it's going to be a very long night for Biden.

If the States go down as expected, Red for Trump, Blue for Biden, then it will come down to WI and PA.

View attachment 409328
​

If this is where the race ends up, then Trump has to take WI OR PA to win, whereas, Biden has to take WI AND PA to win.

The problem with your map is that New Hampshire and Wisconsin are already Biden's. BIDEN has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump has of winning New Hampshire or Wisconsin based on the latest polling....

If the polling is correct, Biden will have a great night. If the polling is as bad as last time, Trump is looking at a win. Right now we don't know which proposition is true, but, we will in three days. I accept that.

Why are you working so hard to claim to know an answer you can't possibly know?

 

[Sun Devil 92]

LOL. He has already won Florida, and NO PRESIDENT has ever been elected to office without Florida, so take your Fake Polls and shove them up your mask.

You could not be more wrong. There have in fact been 11 Presidential Elections where the winner lost Florida but still moved into, or stayed in, the White House!

Bill Clinton - 1992
Calvin Coolidge - 1924
Warren Harding - 1920
William Taft - 1908
Theodore Roosevelt - 1904
William McKinley - 1900
William McKinley - 1896
Benjamin Harrison - 1888
James Garfield - 1880
Abraham Lincoln - 1864
Abraham Lincoln - 1860


BIDEN currently has a lead over Trump in Florida in the latest average of polls from Real Clear Politics:

FLORIDA 2020 with 3 days to go before Election:
BIDEN: 48.4% (1.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 47.2%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

BIDEN has many paths to victory without Florida. Biden could even lose Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida and still win the election. That is why I don't pick any of them as key swing states for BIDEN to win. They are not must win states for BIDEN. Trump on the other hand has almost no path to 270 without Florida.

Your point is not particularly interesting.

If Biden takes ANY of states shown below in in Red, its going to be a very long night for Trump.
If Trump takes ANY of the states shown below in Blue, it's going to be a very long night for Biden.

If the States go down as expected, Red for Trump, Blue for Biden, then it will come down to WI and PA.

View attachment 409328
​

If this is where the race ends up, then Trump has to take WI OR PA to win, whereas, Biden has to take WI AND PA to win.

The problem with your map is that New Hampshire and Wisconsin are already Biden's. BIDEN has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump has of winning New Hampshire or Wisconsin based on the latest polling....

If the polling is correct, Biden will have a great night. If the polling is as bad as last time, Trump is looking at a win. Right now we don't know which proposition is true, but, we will in three days. I accept that.

Why are you working so hard to claim to know an answer you can't possibly know?

Latest polling.

I just took a shit and it spelled Pelosi Loses.

 

[Zorro!]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 10/31/2020, 3 days before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 51.3% (+7.8% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5%

The popular vote isn't the Presidential Electorate. Weird that you still aren't clear on this. It's only been this way for over 200 years and 58 presidential elections.

... WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.3% (+6.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.9%

Well, if the polls are right, this is going to be a wipeout, but, polls historically have underpolled Trump support and over polled his opponents support. For example, in WI, Trump over performed the final RCP average by +7.2%. If he does that again, he wins WI.

... MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 50.0% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5% ...

He overperformed the final RCP poll by 3.7%, so, if history repeats, he loses MI.

... PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.4% (+3.7% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.7%...

He overperformed by 2.6% so, if history repeats, he loses PA.

... ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 47.4% (0.6% over Biden)
BIDEN: 46.8%

Here he under performed by 0.5% - so, if history repeats, he wins AZ.

If Biden only manages to flip PA and MI, Trump still wins.

View attachment 409309​

Have pollsters corrected their models that got 2016 so wrong? Who knows? They certainly haven't proven they have. What I hear are claims that they weren't really wrong, when clearly they were. Claiming that they weren't really wrong, is the answer that requires them to make no real changes. So, we'll see. I think we'll have a pretty good idea how the night is shaping up in about an hour after the states in the east time zone close.

...It was determined that pollsters were off in the compositions of samples that they used for the state, under-sampling certain demographic groups while over-sampling others...

This is known. What is unknown is whether they have corrected for this. All we know for sure is that the last time they claimed they had it right, that they were wrong.

... By every measure you can think of, BIDEN is in a good spot....

Only by the measure that the polls are right, which is the same position Crooked Hillary was in at this time.

... An Electoral College victory with between 340 to 413 electoral votes for BIDEN is likely.

And landslide was declared to be highly likely for Hillary at this point as well.

We'll know soon enough in the polls match the electorate or if they blew it again, as badly as they blew the last one.

The pollsters did not blow the 2016 election...

That claim is why I'm unconvinced that they corrected their error. After all, why would they feel the need to correct their polling error if they chose to believe that their polls were "right" when the reversed the ECV count?

... popular vote winner...

The popular vote isn't the presidential electorate.

You are simultaneously arguing that the polls have been corrected and that they were never in need of correction. I think I'll wait for the returns to come in and judge for myself if they have corrected the errors that caused them to nearly all miss the 2016 winner, and they nearly all missed in the same direction.

In fact, they consistently under polled Trump's support all through the primary campaign. I'm satisfied with waiting three days and letting the facts speak for themselves.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 10/31/2020, 3 days before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 51.3% (+7.8% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5%

The popular vote isn't the Presidential Electorate. Weird that you still aren't clear on this. It's only been this way for over 200 years and 58 presidential elections.

... WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.3% (+6.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.9%

Well, if the polls are right, this is going to be a wipeout, but, polls historically have underpolled Trump support and over polled his opponents support. For example, in WI, Trump over performed the final RCP average by +7.2%. If he does that again, he wins WI.

... MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 50.0% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5% ...

He overperformed the final RCP poll by 3.7%, so, if history repeats, he loses MI.

... PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.4% (+3.7% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.7%...

He overperformed by 2.6% so, if history repeats, he loses PA.

... ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 47.4% (0.6% over Biden)
BIDEN: 46.8%

Here he under performed by 0.5% - so, if history repeats, he wins AZ.

If Biden only manages to flip PA and MI, Trump still wins.

View attachment 409309​

Have pollsters corrected their models that got 2016 so wrong? Who knows? They certainly haven't proven they have. What I hear are claims that they weren't really wrong, when clearly they were. Claiming that they weren't really wrong, is the answer that requires them to make no real changes. So, we'll see. I think we'll have a pretty good idea how the night is shaping up in about an hour after the states in the east time zone close.

...It was determined that pollsters were off in the compositions of samples that they used for the state, under-sampling certain demographic groups while over-sampling others...

This is known. What is unknown is whether they have corrected for this. All we know for sure is that the last time they claimed they had it right, that they were wrong.

... By every measure you can think of, BIDEN is in a good spot....

Only by the measure that the polls are right, which is the same position Crooked Hillary was in at this time.

... An Electoral College victory with between 340 to 413 electoral votes for BIDEN is likely.

And landslide was declared to be highly likely for Hillary at this point as well.

We'll know soon enough in the polls match the electorate or if they blew it again, as badly as they blew the last one.

The pollsters did not blow the 2016 election...

That claim is why I'm unconvinced that they corrected their error. After all, why would they feel the need to correct their polling error if they chose to believe that their polls were "right" when the reversed the ECV count?

... popular vote winner...

The popular vote isn't the presidential electorate.

You are simultaneously arguing that the polls have been corrected and that they were never in need of correction. I think I'll wait for the returns to come in and judge for myself if they have corrected the errors that caused them to nearly all miss the 2016 winner, and they nearly all missed in the same direction.

In fact, they consistently under polled Trump's support all through the primary campaign. I'm satisfied with waiting three days and letting the facts speak for themselves.

We really have no choice.

November 3rd is the only poll that really matters.

Of course, Biden just took a dump in Iowa.....

 

[U2Edge]

LOL. He has already won Florida, and NO PRESIDENT has ever been elected to office without Florida, so take your Fake Polls and shove them up your mask.

You could not be more wrong. There have in fact been 11 Presidential Elections where the winner lost Florida but still moved into, or stayed in, the White House!

Bill Clinton - 1992
Calvin Coolidge - 1924
Warren Harding - 1920
William Taft - 1908
Theodore Roosevelt - 1904
William McKinley - 1900
William McKinley - 1896
Benjamin Harrison - 1888
James Garfield - 1880
Abraham Lincoln - 1864
Abraham Lincoln - 1860


BIDEN currently has a lead over Trump in Florida in the latest average of polls from Real Clear Politics:

FLORIDA 2020 with 3 days to go before Election:
BIDEN: 48.4% (1.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 47.2%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

BIDEN has many paths to victory without Florida. Biden could even lose Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida and still win the election. That is why I don't pick any of them as key swing states for BIDEN to win. They are not must win states for BIDEN. Trump on the other hand has almost no path to 270 without Florida.

Your point is not particularly interesting.

If Biden takes ANY of states shown below in in Red, its going to be a very long night for Trump.
If Trump takes ANY of the states shown below in Blue, it's going to be a very long night for Biden.

If the States go down as expected, Red for Trump, Blue for Biden, then it will come down to WI and PA.

View attachment 409328
​

If this is where the race ends up, then Trump has to take WI OR PA to win, whereas, Biden has to take WI AND PA to win.

The problem with your map is that New Hampshire and Wisconsin are already Biden's. BIDEN has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump has of winning New Hampshire or Wisconsin based on the latest polling....

If the polling is correct, Biden will have a great night. If the polling is as bad as last time, Trump is looking at a win. Right now we don't know which proposition is true, but, we will in three days. I accept that.

Why are you working so hard to claim to know an answer you can't possibly know?

I think we do know what is going to happen to good extent thanks to polling. As I said before, polling in 2016 was mostly accurate. Polling correctly predicted the winner of 46 out of 50 states in 2016. Polling correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in 2016 and almost got the exact percentages for Trump and Clinton right.

The Polling just a day before the election in 2016 showed it was going to be a close election. Although RCP average of the polls was wrong about the winner in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan, it correctly predicted that those three races were very close, toss ups, within the margin of error.

The only state polling really got wrong in 2016 was Wisconsin.

If the polling is off by THE SAME MARGIN's as last time, BIDEN will win because he is outperforming Hillary Clinton in the polls with larger leads over Trump in key states.

For Example:

Biden leads by 4% over Trump in PA. A 2.6% swing towards Trump that occurred in 2016 would still leave BIDEN with a victory by 1.4%! In Michigan, that margin would be 3%. Then there is the fact that BIDEN is easily hold all the states that Hillary won in 2016, no threat from Trump there. Then there are all the red states where BIDEN is ahead and likely will flip. But he does not need these states, all he needs is Hillary 2016 states, plus Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Look at the current map from RCP:

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

2020 Electoral College Map

www.realclearpolitics.com

BIDEN: 368 electoral votes
TRUMP: 170 electoral votes

If BIDEN also flips Iowa and Texas then its:

BIDEN: 412 electoral votes
TRUMP: 126 electoral votes

That would be the largest Electoral college landslide since 1988!

 

[U2Edge]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 10/31/2020, 3 days before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 51.3% (+7.8% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5%

The popular vote isn't the Presidential Electorate. Weird that you still aren't clear on this. It's only been this way for over 200 years and 58 presidential elections.

... WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.3% (+6.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.9%

Well, if the polls are right, this is going to be a wipeout, but, polls historically have underpolled Trump support and over polled his opponents support. For example, in WI, Trump over performed the final RCP average by +7.2%. If he does that again, he wins WI.

... MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 50.0% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5% ...

He overperformed the final RCP poll by 3.7%, so, if history repeats, he loses MI.

... PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.4% (+3.7% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.7%...

He overperformed by 2.6% so, if history repeats, he loses PA.

... ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 47.4% (0.6% over Biden)
BIDEN: 46.8%

Here he under performed by 0.5% - so, if history repeats, he wins AZ.

If Biden only manages to flip PA and MI, Trump still wins.

View attachment 409309​

Have pollsters corrected their models that got 2016 so wrong? Who knows? They certainly haven't proven they have. What I hear are claims that they weren't really wrong, when clearly they were. Claiming that they weren't really wrong, is the answer that requires them to make no real changes. So, we'll see. I think we'll have a pretty good idea how the night is shaping up in about an hour after the states in the east time zone close.

...It was determined that pollsters were off in the compositions of samples that they used for the state, under-sampling certain demographic groups while over-sampling others...

This is known. What is unknown is whether they have corrected for this. All we know for sure is that the last time they claimed they had it right, that they were wrong.

... By every measure you can think of, BIDEN is in a good spot....

Only by the measure that the polls are right, which is the same position Crooked Hillary was in at this time.

... An Electoral College victory with between 340 to 413 electoral votes for BIDEN is likely.

And landslide was declared to be highly likely for Hillary at this point as well.

We'll know soon enough in the polls match the electorate or if they blew it again, as badly as they blew the last one.

The pollsters did not blow the 2016 election...

That claim is why I'm unconvinced that they corrected their error. After all, why would they feel the need to correct their polling error if they chose to believe that their polls were "right" when the reversed the ECV count?

... popular vote winner...

The popular vote isn't the presidential electorate.

You are simultaneously arguing that the polls have been corrected and that they were never in need of correction. I think I'll wait for the returns to come in and judge for myself if they have corrected the errors that caused them to nearly all miss the 2016 winner, and they nearly all missed in the same direction.

In fact, they consistently under polled Trump's support all through the primary campaign. I'm satisfied with waiting three days and letting the facts speak for themselves.

There was only one state from 2016 that needed a correction for polling which was Wisconsin. The three other states where polling got it wrong CORRECTLY predicted those three states were so close that they were toss ups. In the other 46 states, polling correctly predicted the winner.

The popular vote is compiled every election and polling correctly for that, especially to the degree that polling did in 2016, is very impressive. In terms of polling accuracy, that is a clear thumbs up.

 

[U2Edge]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 11/01/2020, 2 days before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 51.1% (+7.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.9%


WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.3% (+6.0% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.3%

MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 50.4% (+6.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.2%

PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.3% (+4.0% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.3%

NEVADA:
BIDEN: 48.6% (+3.6% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.0%

ARIZONA:
BIDEN: 47.6% (+1.1% over Trump)
TRUMP: 46.5%




WHERE THE 2016 RACE WAS AT THIS POINT, 2 DAYS BEFORE ELECTION:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:

CLINTON: +2.2% over Trump

WISCONSIN:
CLINTON: 46.0% (+5.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 40.5%

MICHIGAN:
CLINTON: 44.7% (+4.7% over Trump)
TRUMP: 40.0%

PENNSYLVANIA:
CLINTON: 46.0% (+2.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.6%

NEVADA:
TRUMP: 46.0% (+2.0% over Clinton)
CLINTON: 44.0%

ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 46.3% (+4.0% over Clinton)
CLINTON: 42.3%


With only two days to go until the election, BIDEN is still outperforming where Clinton was at this time in 2016 against Trump. Victory is now almost a certainty, and electoral landslide not seen since the 1980s a strong possibility!

 

[Zorro!]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 10/31/2020, 3 days before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 51.3% (+7.8% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5%

The popular vote isn't the Presidential Electorate. Weird that you still aren't clear on this. It's only been this way for over 200 years and 58 presidential elections.

... WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.3% (+6.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.9%

Well, if the polls are right, this is going to be a wipeout, but, polls historically have underpolled Trump support and over polled his opponents support. For example, in WI, Trump over performed the final RCP average by +7.2%. If he does that again, he wins WI.

... MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 50.0% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5% ...

He overperformed the final RCP poll by 3.7%, so, if history repeats, he loses MI.

... PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.4% (+3.7% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.7%...

He overperformed by 2.6% so, if history repeats, he loses PA.

... ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 47.4% (0.6% over Biden)
BIDEN: 46.8%

Here he under performed by 0.5% - so, if history repeats, he wins AZ.

If Biden only manages to flip PA and MI, Trump still wins.

View attachment 409309​

Have pollsters corrected their models that got 2016 so wrong? Who knows? They certainly haven't proven they have. What I hear are claims that they weren't really wrong, when clearly they were. Claiming that they weren't really wrong, is the answer that requires them to make no real changes. So, we'll see. I think we'll have a pretty good idea how the night is shaping up in about an hour after the states in the east time zone close.

...It was determined that pollsters were off in the compositions of samples that they used for the state, under-sampling certain demographic groups while over-sampling others...

This is known. What is unknown is whether they have corrected for this. All we know for sure is that the last time they claimed they had it right, that they were wrong.

... By every measure you can think of, BIDEN is in a good spot....

Only by the measure that the polls are right, which is the same position Crooked Hillary was in at this time.

... An Electoral College victory with between 340 to 413 electoral votes for BIDEN is likely.

And landslide was declared to be highly likely for Hillary at this point as well.

We'll know soon enough in the polls match the electorate or if they blew it again, as badly as they blew the last one.

The pollsters did not blow the 2016 election...

That claim is why I'm unconvinced that they corrected their error. After all, why would they feel the need to correct their polling error if they chose to believe that their polls were "right" when the reversed the ECV count?

... popular vote winner...

The popular vote isn't the presidential electorate.

You are simultaneously arguing that the polls have been corrected and that they were never in need of correction. I think I'll wait for the returns to come in and judge for myself if they have corrected the errors that caused them to nearly all miss the 2016 winner, and they nearly all missed in the same direction.

In fact, they consistently under polled Trump's support all through the primary campaign. I'm satisfied with waiting three days and letting the facts speak for themselves.

.... polling did in 2016, is very impressive. In terms of polling accuracy, that is a clear thumbs up.

That's why I'm not confident that pollsters won't miss this election just as badly as they did the last one. If they think their 2016 polls were fine, why would they change them?

But, we'll know the answer in 48 hours and I have no problem with waiting for the actual facts to determine the answer.

 

[Indeependent]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 10/31/2020, 3 days before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 51.3% (+7.8% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5%

The popular vote isn't the Presidential Electorate. Weird that you still aren't clear on this. It's only been this way for over 200 years and 58 presidential elections.

... WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.3% (+6.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.9%

Well, if the polls are right, this is going to be a wipeout, but, polls historically have underpolled Trump support and over polled his opponents support. For example, in WI, Trump over performed the final RCP average by +7.2%. If he does that again, he wins WI.

... MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 50.0% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5% ...

He overperformed the final RCP poll by 3.7%, so, if history repeats, he loses MI.

... PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.4% (+3.7% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.7%...

He overperformed by 2.6% so, if history repeats, he loses PA.

... ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 47.4% (0.6% over Biden)
BIDEN: 46.8%

Here he under performed by 0.5% - so, if history repeats, he wins AZ.

If Biden only manages to flip PA and MI, Trump still wins.

View attachment 409309​

Have pollsters corrected their models that got 2016 so wrong? Who knows? They certainly haven't proven they have. What I hear are claims that they weren't really wrong, when clearly they were. Claiming that they weren't really wrong, is the answer that requires them to make no real changes. So, we'll see. I think we'll have a pretty good idea how the night is shaping up in about an hour after the states in the east time zone close.

Over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is also the winner of the Electoral College!

Overall BIDEN is performing much better than Clinton against Trump, enough to erase any equivalent swings from the polls to the real results back in 2016 in the few states where RCP was wrong. RCP correctly predicted the winner in 46 out of 50 states in 2016. It also correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote, and was so accurate that it nearly predicted the exact percentages.

Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin were the only states that Real Clear Politics failed to pick the winner.
Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan were all within the margin of error so RCP was correct in determining they were essentially toss ups.

The only state RCP was really off on was Wisconsin. That's it. Very accurate polling. It was determined that pollsters were off in the compositions of samples that they used for the state, under-sampling certain demographic groups while over-sampling others.

By every measure you can think of, BIDEN is in a good spot. An Electoral College victory with between 340 to 413 electoral votes for BIDEN is likely.

Overall BIDEN is performing much better than Clinton against Trump
Lie

 

[Zorro!]

LOL. He has already won Florida, and NO PRESIDENT has ever been elected to office without Florida, so take your Fake Polls and shove them up your mask.

You could not be more wrong. There have in fact been 11 Presidential Elections where the winner lost Florida but still moved into, or stayed in, the White House!

Bill Clinton - 1992
Calvin Coolidge - 1924
Warren Harding - 1920
William Taft - 1908
Theodore Roosevelt - 1904
William McKinley - 1900
William McKinley - 1896
Benjamin Harrison - 1888
James Garfield - 1880
Abraham Lincoln - 1864
Abraham Lincoln - 1860


BIDEN currently has a lead over Trump in Florida in the latest average of polls from Real Clear Politics:

FLORIDA 2020 with 3 days to go before Election:
BIDEN: 48.4% (1.2% over Trump)
TRUMP: 47.2%

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Florida: Trump vs. Biden

www.realclearpolitics.com

BIDEN has many paths to victory without Florida. Biden could even lose Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida and still win the election. That is why I don't pick any of them as key swing states for BIDEN to win. They are not must win states for BIDEN. Trump on the other hand has almost no path to 270 without Florida.

Your point is not particularly interesting.

If Biden takes ANY of states shown below in in Red, its going to be a very long night for Trump.
If Trump takes ANY of the states shown below in Blue, it's going to be a very long night for Biden.

If the States go down as expected, Red for Trump, Blue for Biden, then it will come down to WI and PA.

View attachment 409328
​

If this is where the race ends up, then Trump has to take WI OR PA to win, whereas, Biden has to take WI AND PA to win.

The problem with your map is that New Hampshire and Wisconsin are already Biden's. BIDEN has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump has of winning New Hampshire or Wisconsin based on the latest polling....

If the polling is correct, Biden will have a great night. If the polling is as bad as last time, Trump is looking at a win. Right now we don't know which proposition is true, but, we will in three days. I accept that.

Why are you working so hard to claim to know an answer you can't possibly know?

... I think we do know what is going to happen to good extent thanks to polling. As I said before, polling in 2016 was mostly accurate....

That claim makes me suspect that they didn't correct the error that cause them to poll an outcome that was the reverse of reality.

... If BIDEN also flips Iowa and Texas then its:

BIDEN: 412 electoral votes
TRUMP: 126 electoral votes

That would be the largest Electoral college landslide since 1988!

That seems like a bit of stretch, but, we should a pretty good idea of how it's shaping up in 48 hours. I think I'll wait for the actual evidence.

 

[Zorro!]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 10/31/2020, 3 days before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 51.3% (+7.8% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5%

The popular vote isn't the Presidential Electorate. Weird that you still aren't clear on this. It's only been this way for over 200 years and 58 presidential elections.

... WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.3% (+6.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.9%

Well, if the polls are right, this is going to be a wipeout, but, polls historically have underpolled Trump support and over polled his opponents support. For example, in WI, Trump over performed the final RCP average by +7.2%. If he does that again, he wins WI.

... MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 50.0% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 43.5% ...

He overperformed the final RCP poll by 3.7%, so, if history repeats, he loses MI.

... PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.4% (+3.7% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.7%...

He overperformed by 2.6% so, if history repeats, he loses PA.

... ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 47.4% (0.6% over Biden)
BIDEN: 46.8%

Here he under performed by 0.5% - so, if history repeats, he wins AZ.

If Biden only manages to flip PA and MI, Trump still wins.

View attachment 409309​

Have pollsters corrected their models that got 2016 so wrong? Who knows? They certainly haven't proven they have. What I hear are claims that they weren't really wrong, when clearly they were. Claiming that they weren't really wrong, is the answer that requires them to make no real changes. So, we'll see. I think we'll have a pretty good idea how the night is shaping up in about an hour after the states in the east time zone close.

Over 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is also the winner of the Electoral College!

Overall BIDEN is performing much better than Clinton against Trump, enough to erase any equivalent swings from the polls to the real results back in 2016 in the few states where RCP was wrong. RCP correctly predicted the winner in 46 out of 50 states in 2016. It also correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote, and was so accurate that it nearly predicted the exact percentages.

Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin were the only states that Real Clear Politics failed to pick the winner.
Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan were all within the margin of error so RCP was correct in determining they were essentially toss ups.

The only state RCP was really off on was Wisconsin. That's it. Very accurate polling. It was determined that pollsters were off in the compositions of samples that they used for the state, under-sampling certain demographic groups while over-sampling others.

By every measure you can think of, BIDEN is in a good spot. An Electoral College victory with between 340 to 413 electoral votes for BIDEN is likely.

Overall BIDEN is performing much better than Clinton against Trump
Lie

More people have early voted in Texas, than voted, total, in 2016. A poll is only as good as its turn out assumptions, and I find it very hard to believe that pollsters correctly presumed the 2020 turnout. Further, they give two answers to the question of whether they corrected their methodology since 2016. Here are the two answers:

i) Yes
ii) Our polls in 2016 were right (even though they reversed the outcome).

I have a feeling that ii) is right and that they really haven't changed anything, and that 2020 is likely to be even further from their expectations than 2016 was.

But, in 48 hours we'll have a pretty good idea, so, let's just wait for the returns.

 

[U2Edge]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 11/02/2020, 1 day before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 50.9% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.4%


WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.7% (+6.6% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.1%

MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 49.8% (+5.1% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.7%

PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.2% (+2.9% over Trump)
TRUMP: 46.3%

NEVADA:
BIDEN: 48.6% (+3.6% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.0%

ARIZONA:
BIDEN: 47.7% (+0.9% over Trump)
TRUMP: 46.8%




WHERE THE 2016 RACE WAS AT THIS POINT, 1 DAY BEFORE ELECTION:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:

CLINTON: +3.3% over Trump

WISCONSIN:
CLINTON: 46.8% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 40.3%

MICHIGAN:
CLINTON: 45.4% (+3.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 42.0%

PENNSYLVANIA:
CLINTON: 46.2% (+1.9% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.3%

NEVADA:
TRUMP: 45.8% (+0.8% over Clinton)
CLINTON: 45.0%

ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 46.3% (+4.0% over Clinton)
CLINTON: 42.3%



Well, with one day left, there has been some slight tightening in the race. The national poll average as tightened a little bit. Also, Pennsylvania has become much tighter. Still, Biden is outperforming Clinton from 2016 in numbers that are enough to stop a similar scale Trump surprise from four years ago.

 

[Indeependent]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 11/02/2020, 1 day before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 50.9% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.4%


WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.7% (+6.6% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.1%

MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 49.8% (+5.1% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.7%

PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.2% (+2.9% over Trump)
TRUMP: 46.3%

NEVADA:
BIDEN: 48.6% (+3.6% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.0%

ARIZONA:
BIDEN: 47.7% (+0.9% over Trump)
TRUMP: 46.8%




WHERE THE 2016 RACE WAS AT THIS POINT, 1 DAY BEFORE ELECTION:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:

CLINTON: +3.3% over Trump

WISCONSIN:
CLINTON: 46.8% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 40.3%

MICHIGAN:
CLINTON: 45.4% (+3.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 42.0%

PENNSYLVANIA:
CLINTON: 46.2% (+1.9% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.3%

NEVADA:
TRUMP: 45.8% (+0.8% over Clinton)
CLINTON: 45.0%

ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 46.3% (+4.0% over Clinton)
CLINTON: 42.3%



Well, with one day left, there has been some slight tightening in the race. The national poll average as tightened a little bit. Also, Pennsylvania has become much tighter. Still, Biden is outperforming Clinton from 2016 in numbers that are enough to stop a similar scale Trump surprise from four years ago.

What is wrong with Liberals that they “can never be wrong”?

 

[Zorro!]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS average of the polls 11/02/2020, 1 day before Election:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:
BIDEN: 50.9% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.4%


WISCONSIN:
BIDEN: 50.7% (+6.6% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.1%

MICHIGAN:
BIDEN: 49.8% (+5.1% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.7%

PENNSYLVANIA:
BIDEN: 49.2% (+2.9% over Trump)
TRUMP: 46.3%

NEVADA:
BIDEN: 48.6% (+3.6% over Trump)
TRUMP: 45.0%

ARIZONA:
BIDEN: 47.7% (+0.9% over Trump)
TRUMP: 46.8%




WHERE THE 2016 RACE WAS AT THIS POINT, 1 DAY BEFORE ELECTION:

NATIONAL RACE, popular vote:

CLINTON: +3.3% over Trump

WISCONSIN:
CLINTON: 46.8% (+6.5% over Trump)
TRUMP: 40.3%

MICHIGAN:
CLINTON: 45.4% (+3.4% over Trump)
TRUMP: 42.0%

PENNSYLVANIA:
CLINTON: 46.2% (+1.9% over Trump)
TRUMP: 44.3%

NEVADA:
TRUMP: 45.8% (+0.8% over Clinton)
CLINTON: 45.0%

ARIZONA:
TRUMP: 46.3% (+4.0% over Clinton)
CLINTON: 42.3%



Well, with one day left, there has been some slight tightening in the race. The national poll average as tightened a little bit. Also, Pennsylvania has become much tighter. Still, Biden is outperforming Clinton from 2016 in numbers that are enough to stop a similar scale Trump surprise from four years ago.

What is wrong with Liberals that they “can never be wrong”?

What religious cult ever does?