Zhukov
VIP Member
wade said:We probably could not stop them from destroying.....Peking.
......
Yeah....I don't think we have to worry about North Korea detroying Peking.......or even Beijing for that matter.
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wade said:We probably could not stop them from destroying.....Peking.
freeandfun1 said:He didn't like the 1994 agreement so he decided he wanted to change it. You cannot keep renegotiating deals every time they (the NK's) want to change something.
Look at the history of Panmunjom and how many times the NK's would change what they wanted. It is part of their culture. The SK's are much the same way in business. They will place an order with you, take delivery and then try to renegotiate the price.
That is exactly what Kim was doing. He agreed to the 1994 agreement and then admitted he NEVER abided by it and wanted us to renegotiate a new deal with him. He has proven time and time again that he cannot be trusted. The Japanese, Chinese and South Koreans understand that as does Bush. However, due to your obvious lack of international experience, in Asia at least, YOU don't.
Zhukov said:......
Yeah....I don't think we have to worry about North Korea detroying Peking.......or even Beijing for that matter.
wade said:How about resuming talks with NK, accepting their offer of 2000 to stop their nuclear weapons program, stop their long range missile program, agree not to export any missile or nuclear tech, allow international inspection and 24/7 access, etc... all for gradual normalization of relations over a period of years and some kind of re-unification talks with SK in the future (this last one was non-specific)?
At the best, it works. At the worst, we are no worse off than we are, and NK probably does not advance it's tech or export it for at least a few years.
Asside: This kim guy is a nut. I bet if he were offered some kind of movie studio and a goodly yearly buget, he'd leave NK to become a film maker! He seems quite obsessed with film making.
Wade.
North Korea Crisis Escalates Amid Consternation and Confusion
As reported in the last issue, on October 16 the US State Department made public an admission it claimed to have received from North Korea during a visit to Pyongyang by Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly two weeks earlier (October 3-5). Kelly's visit was the highest-level contact between the two sides since President Bush took office, raising hopes - particularly in the context of rapidly improving relations between Pyongyang and both South Korea and Japan - that concerns over North Korea's nuclear and missile programmes might soon be satisfactorily addressed as part of a general movement towards durable peace and security in the region. Those hopes were seemingly dashed by the State Department's revelations:
"Earlier this month, senior US officials traveled to North Korea to begin talks on a wide range of issues. During those talks, Assistant Secretary James A. Kelly and his delegation advised the North Koreans that we had recently acquired information that indicates that North Korea has a program to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons in violation of the Agreed Framework and other agreements. North Korean officials acknowledged that they have such a program. The North Koreans attempted to blame the United States and said that they considered the Agreed Framework nullified. ... Over the summer, President Bush - in consultation with our allies and friends - had developed a bold approach to improve relations with North Korea. The United States was prepared to offer economic and political steps to improve the lives of the North Korean people, provided the North were dramatically to alter its behavior across a range of issues, including its weapons of mass destruction programs, development and export of ballistic missiles, threats to its neighbors, support for terrorism, and the deplorable treatment of the North Korean people. In light of our concerns about the North's nuclear weapons program, however, we are unable to pursue this approach. North Korea's secret nuclear weapons program is a serious violation of North Korea's commitments under the Agreed Framework as well as under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), its International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards agreement, and the Joint North-South Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. ... The United States and our allies call on North Korea to comply with its commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and to eliminate its nuclear weapons program in a verifiable manner. We seek a peaceful resolution of this situation. Everyone in the region has a stake in this issue and no peaceful nation wants to see a nuclear-armed North Korea."
The period since the October 16 announcement has been marked by confusion over the exact nature of North Korea's admission, consternation at the bewilderingly sudden turn of events, and anxiety over the long-term ramifications of any collapse of the 1994 US-North Korea Agreed Framework, under which the North is to be provided with proliferation-resistant light-water reactors (LWRs) in return for fully honouring its NPT obligations.
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So only now, with Kil Il armed with actual warheads and long range missiles, you say this appeasement is supposed to be effective... why do I feel that's naive at best, and self-destructive at best?
wade said:Comrade said:Absolutely. The offensive capability in N.K. will exceed our capacity for defence as they attain modern deployment and greater range and numbers, even nuclear subs, while our defense tech is very difficult and slow going.
We have to hit them once our ABM defense is still good enough and their development remains primitive.
We can't wait.Umm, your belief in our ability to successfully intercept all their missiles is totally unfounded.
To you it's like I offered a foolproof plan, when it's not more than a commenyt on the increasing vulnerability between our ABM defense tech vs. their ballistic offensive tech 'once' it's deployed. No, instead you're just making up that claim to offer defeatism while simply ignoring the future as an alternative scenario.
We could not stop them from destroying Soul, it's nearly impossible.
We probably could not stop them from destroying Tokyo and Peking as well.
And so some repitition of hollow appeasement for another decade also leaves us unable to stop them from destroying them as well as another 50-100 cities beyond, a condition even more full of hopeless fear and demanding more appeasement.
Remember in 1994 when the oil-food-nuclear tech trade in return for their promise not to produce nuclear weapons was first established? Resulting in a continuance of Kim Ils' tyranny and ~8 nuclear warheads today.
We might be able to stop missiles headed for the USA, but if they fired a dozen, I'd bet at least one would get through (assuming they actually can get here successfully).
That being a future scenario, when a dozen warheads deployed with a long rang missile is able to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or even the North West, we'll assume one will get through despite our indeterminate ABM technology at that time. And also assume then his life and his regime, utterly crushed in retaliation, is worth what could maybe be, perhaps, an attack with a low yield and little accuracy.
While that's possible I wonder when the point I made is relevent to you.
As when some hundreds of MIRV ICMB warheads exist under N.K.... and when we're even more strongly encouraged to make additional concessions beyond what you recommend.
As long as we are talking of the same regime and leader, of course, who always shit on promises made to America.
And in many cases, even successful interception does not mean no signficant damage will result. The course of the missile will still probably land a big chunk of weapons grade plutonium or uranium in our neighborhood.
Good, if there's a chunk and nobody comes within a few feet it's contained. If vaporized it's spread out into the atmosphere. It's not even remotely as bad as radioactive fallout visited in diluted forms around the Earth in hundreds of massive radioactive generating blasts from a working warhead.
And do you think China is going to accept the losses it incures on our behalf without responding?
You mean do I think N.K. will attack China and then expect China to attack the USA? No.
I think you are falling for the hype. Remember how our Patriots were shooting the scuds out of the sky with ease? Remember what the truth turned out to be?
Yep, all but one missile landed upon and caused any casualties at all.
Ths was in fact already a missile intercepted and rendered without guidance from a direct hit, and only by sheer luck did it fall upon a tent where we know that half of the Gulf '91 casualties can be counted from.
And after fifteen years the technology is far more better.
Do you have a hi-tech background Comrade?
Of course I do. The real question is, where do you presume that there are at least dozen nuclear warheads now in reach of the USA from North Korea?
It's not really about being 'hi-tech', it's about you making an Argument from Authority. That requires you to be intimate with the details of operational deployment contrary to all public sources about the number of warheads and the range of current operational N.K. ballistic tech. So what the hell do you know, and why should I be impressed?
rtwngAvngr said:IS it me or does wade seem like a well educated appeaser who throws around a lot of security info, but really doesn't have a clue? I'd like some other opinions to more fully inform my opinion.
rtwngAvngr said:IS it me or does wade seem like a well educated appeaser who throws around a lot of security info, but really doesn't have a clue? I'd like some other opinions to more fully inform my opinion.
rtwngAvngr said:IS it me or does wade seem like a well educated appeaser who throws around a lot of security info, but really doesn't have a clue? I'd like some other opinions to more fully inform my opinion.
wade said:Grrr... I was reading Chinesse history last night and goofed. Big deal. You know what I mean. Go ahead and pick at nits.
Zhukov said:The Peking/Beijing comment was an after-thought. The main point is I seriously doubt NK is going to attack China. The very idea is absurd.
wade said:Hmmm... as an agressor no. But I think it is quite possible that if pressed to war, they would do so, or at least threaten to do so, to make sure China had a stake in it. Basically, I think if they had the capacity, they would hit every major target within their range. Remember who we're dealing with.
Wade.
wade said:Comrade - the article you reference is 2 years after Pres. Bush dropped the ball.
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Still, the deal required North Korea in time to come in line: Pyongyang was supposed to allow comprehensive IAEA inspections to be completed by the time the promised reactor project was half-built. North Korea was also obligated to implement the 1992 North-South denuclearization declaration, which forbade possession or production of nuclear explosives, including facilities for enriching uranium for bombs, and remain a party to the nonproliferation treaty.
The IAEA inspections, though, never started when they were supposed to -- by May 2002, according to the reactor construction schedule. With North Korea stiffing the IAEA and attacking the agency as a "tool" of a hostile U.S. policy, it became evident that Pyongyang was never going to permit IAEA inspectors to discover that the illicit plutonium was now in bombs.
There were increasing disagreement between North Korea and U.S. on the scope and implementation of the treaty. When by 1999 economic sanctions had not been lifted and full diplomatic relations between U.S. and North Korea had not been established, North Korea warned that they would resume nuclear research unless the U.S. kept up its end of the bargain. U.S. has repeatedly stated that further implementation would be stalled as long as suspicions remained that the North Korean nuclear weapons research program continued covertly.
My point is we should have taken Kim up on his offer.
This would have at least slowed their nuke progress, and more importantly, it would have given us access to NK that we do not have.
I bet it hurts a bit. And I also bet a bounty of oil/food is helpfull in all aspects, including nuclear research. Why not?
7/24 inspection access would have done wonders for our intelligence about NK.
Never heard of such an offer nor would it be granted without restriction to any locale. That's insane. Link to the offer, and then convince us it's a genuine act of Kim and his open policy of peace.
And finally, as it is turning out, NK is gaining what it needs from the Euro's, which defeats our intrests in that they are not gaining the intel we need, they didn't/couldn't bargain for it.
Well you're probably right about that. Euro's care little for sanctions, nuclear non-proliferation treaties, and humanitarian policy, given a purely anti-American regime to trade with.
If we didn't think we were getting what we needed from any deal with NK, we could have backed out at any time.
So they violated it, and Bush challenged Kim Il to adhere to it, and then after so much bullshit from him we cut him off. And it's nothing you seem to disapprove.
Appeasers give more than they get. I never suggested we take such a course, not even close.
Kim Il wiped his ass with the treaty under Clinton already, and developed nuclear weapons well in advance of 2002. So any ideas how to repay him giving us less than nothing?
Comrade said:You have to ask yourself, really, why you seem to give every benefit of doubt to the Kim Il Jong regime on the subject.
Consider you would seem to be so generous that the actual date o violation is in fact on the date of Kims' admission of such... Oct, 2001. Still a few months shy of two full years.
Comrade said:But more accurately, the violation of the agreement was in fact a proven fact well before that, even prior to the "Axis of Evil" speech, a speech not relevant at all in those agreed upon provisions, rather, a reaction provoked by Kims' utter disregard for those provisions.
http://www.npec-web.org/opeds/dilemma2.htm
Clear, undeniable violations of the original Clinton pact is now in fact dated a year since Bush took office.
So while you can choose to ignore a clear violation well before the 'two years' until their admission, you'd also have to assume under that same logic, that if no admission by North Koreas was made at all, then they'd not be in violation at all.
Comrade said:But as a reasonale person, I'd assume May, 2001, was also a time well after the few years necessary in lead time up to their operational nuclear capability afterwards.
Even in 1999, indications of such a program were threatened to become open policy instead of a covert program.
http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/1994 U.S.-North Korea nuclear pact
What offer? A 1994 hudna? Or just some rehash of this same kind of smoke up our ass made in 2002?
Since when? They never granted free access to any foriegn inspection, ever, period.
Comrade said:I bet it hurts a bit. And I also bet a bounty of oil/food is helpfull in all aspects, including nuclear research. Why not?
Comrade said:Never heard of such an offer nor would it be granted without restriction to any locale. That's insane. Link to the offer, and then convince us it's a genuine act of Kim and his open policy of peace.
Comrade said:Well you're probably right about that. Euro's care little for sanctions, nuclear non-proliferation treaties, and humanitarian policy, given a purely anti-American regime to trade with.
Comrade said:So they violated it, and Bush challenged Kim Il to adhere to it, and then after so much bullshit from him we cut him off. And it's nothing you seem to disapprove.
Comrade said:Kim Il wiped his ass with the treaty under Clinton already, and developed nuclear weapons well in advance of 2002. So any ideas how to repay him giving us less than nothing?
CSM said:It doesn't make any sense either from a strategic view or tactical view for Nk to attack China. The repercussions would be too catastrophic for NK. Japan on the other hand makes for a very lucrative target in the sense that NK does not avctually have to attack japan but merely demonstrate the capability to do so. Once they have done that convincingly, I am willing to bet that the NK blackmail attempts will begin in earnest.
wade said:Okay, about 18 months. By this time the "agreement" was already finished, as Pres. Bush had already refused to finish it.
How can you point to "violations" of an agreement that was never consumated? Bush chose to let this opportunity go, and had made it clear this was his intent more than a year before the dates you're referencing.
Yes it would have meant oil/food for NK, but lack of these things does not effect their nuke progress.
Becuase nuclear R&D was already fully funded. More oil and food was not going to change that priority.
I already did give you links to the Madiline Albright mission to NK. Notice she went with 17 points of contention and Kim acceeded to all of them.
After that we were taken to see the gifts to Kim Jong-il. This was actually more interesting than his dad's place, mainly because everything was more recent (Kim Jr. having taking over only in the mid-90s). The first room we were taken contained gifts presented by prominent South Korean industrialists during their visits in the late 90s. Sitting side-by-side were top-of-the-line LG, Samsung and Hyundai entertainment systems, complete with large screen TVs, stereos, VCRs and plenty of speakers. Some of the same equipment you might have sitting in your living room, here sitting in a museum showing off the glorious gifts received by the Dear Leader.
The next room contained more gifts from the South, including a Hyundai Grandeur donated by the former chairman of Hyundai (whose family is originally from the North). Mr. Huk asked me if I had ever seen one of these cars during my time in the South. When I said, "sure, my neighbor has one just like it," he gave me another one of his 'you have to be lying' looks. How could such a great gift, a gift implying so much respect, belong to some normal person like my neighbor? This was obviously a car reserved for the elite, capitalist oppressors, not some common car for the masses. When I told him I wished the chairman had given away a lot more so there'd be less traffic in the South he got fed up with my obvious lies, gave me a disgusted look and moved on to talk to someone else.
Ever wonder why CNN seems to be the only Western news organization regularly allowed into North Korea? The next room perhaps offered a clue. In the 'Gifts from America' room a whole section of one wall is taken up by gifts from CNN. A few engraved plaques, a coffee cup (yeah, a freaking coffee cup!), a logo ashtray, etc. Probably at most a couple hundred bucks worth of crap that nonetheless get pride of place in the museum - for they reveal obvious signs of respect from a world famous news organization. The people at CNN are certainly using their heads and showing they know how to play the game. Though one wonders how that fits in with journalistic integrity . . .
Another of the interesting gifts in this section was the guestbook signature from former U.S. President Carter's visit. The several sentences, "wishing you peace and good fortune" (hard to remember verbatim when notes and pictures are banned) were a model of empty diplomatic phrases. Exactly the kind of stuff we were getting used to saying ourselves.
The other interesting gift is one I mentioned at the very beginning of this travelogue - a basketball autographed by Michael Jordan. This one presented by former U.S. Secretary of State Madeline Albright during here Fall 2000 visit to Pyongyang. It was funny seeing Mr. Huk's eyes light up in recognition of the name we had asked him about the day before when trying to figure out what he knew of the outside world.
"That's the person you talked about? He really is a basketball player!?" Mr. Huk was incredulous that a simple autographed basketball was all that the mighty US government had come up with. No cars, entertainment centers or nice respectful plaques, just a freaking basketball. It seemed to bother him for quite a while, he even asked me about it later on the bus ride back to Pyongyang. When I told him Jordan is kind of an American god, who got his start by playing basketball, he seemed to be somewhat mollified. Madeline Albright, if you're out there, excellent call on the gift - you certainly puzzled the hell out of a lot of North Koreans!
So you agree that effectively NK got improved relations with the west for nothing right?
Bush challenged Kim to adhere to what? An agreement Bush had already scrapped in 2000?
Again, I point to the FACT that President G.W. Bush had already scrapped the 2000 deal set down by Albright under Clintion. Why in the world would you expect Kilm to abide by the deal when Bush had already said "no deal", way back in early/mid 2000? The day that Bush rebuked Powell, the deal was over.
Wade.
Comrade said:You are fuggin high dude....