Polling update, 04 to 14 August, 2015

[Statistikhengst]

Since this analysis of mine came out on August 3rd, there have been a number of polls that have come out in the last days
.
Time for a poll round-up.

GOP Nomination - National​

Morning Consult (R), released 10 August 2015:

Donald Trump 32%
Jeb Bush 11%
Ben Carson 9%
Scott Walker 6%
Marco Rubio 6%
Rand Paul 5%
Chris Christie 4%
Ted Cruz 4%
Mike Huckabee 4%
Carly Fiorina 3%
John Kasich 3%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
Rick Perry 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 0%

Margin: Trump +20



Rasmussen, released 11 August, 2015, 651 RLV, MoE = +-/4.0
numbers in parenthesis = Rasmussen numbers from the poll before

Trump 17 (26)
Rubio 10 (5)
Bush 10 (10)
Walker 9 (14)
Fiorina 9 (1)
Carson 8 (5)
Cruz 7 (7)
Kasich 4 (5)
Christie 4 (2)
Paul 4 (3)
others - 1 or less
undecided 11

Margin: Trump +7 (+12)

IPSOS / Reuters, 737 RRV + IRV (R-leaning), MoE = +/- 4.1

IPSOS did it two ways. First, with all 17 candidates:

Margin: Trump +10

And then, only with the top three:

Margin: Trump +7
Please notice how many Independents would simply not vote, based on the top three.



Emerson College, released 11 August 2015:

Trump 31
Bush 15
Walker 13
Cruz 8
Huckabee 6
Carson 5
Paul 4
Rubio 4
Fiorina 3
Kasich 2
Christie 2
all others - 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16

DEM Nomination - National​

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 04 August, 2015:

Clinton 55
Sanders 18

Margin: Clinton +37

Morning Consult (R), released 10 August 2015:

Hillary Clinton 56%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Martin O’Malley 4%
Jim Webb 2%
Lincoln Chafee 1%

Margin: Clinton +37


IPSOS / Reuters, 761 DRV + IRV (D-leaning), MoE = +/- 4.1

Margin: Clinton +27


Emerson College, released 11 August 2015:

Clinton 54
Sanders 33
Biden 9
all others under 2 apiece

Margin: Clinton +21
Please notice that under Ds only, it's Clinton 55, Sanders 18, margin = Clinton +37, exactly the same margin as with Gravis (R) and Morning Consult (R).

The common denominators in the nomination polling are logically Trump (R) and Clinton (D), who are both far ahead.


Next posting of mine: national Hillary vs. GOP matchups.

 

[Ringel05]

I see a lot of Bozos but where is the real candidate? The Traveling Gnome.......

 

[Statistikhengst]

Here is the national matchup polling from 07/31 through 08/11. The Marist/McClatchy was already in the analysis from 08/03, but most aggregates make averages for two weeks, rolling, and so this poll still belongs in the aggregate statistics. With five national matchup poll and a oodles of individual matchups (46), it's possible to do averages. We are seeing a 12 day time-frame here. And the Marist/McClatchy is good to see because it is the only pollster thus far to have pitted Hillary Clinton against all 17 announced GOP candidates. For the Clinton/Bush/Trump 3-way, I went back one more poll, just to get an average and also to note that the results are close to identical to each other.

Here are screenshots from my excel data:

Averages (aggregates):

Clinton vs. Paul (4 polls): Clinton +4.75
Clinton vs. Bush (5 polls): Clinton +4.76
Clinton vs. Perry (2 polls): Clinton +7.50
Clinton vs. Rubio (5 polls): Clinton +8.00
Clinton vs. Trump (5 polls): Clinton +9.20
Clinton vs. Cruz (3 polls): Clinton +10.33
Clinton vs. Walker (5 polls): Clinton +10.80
Clinton vs. Huckabee (2 polls): Clinton +12.00
Clinton vs. Carson (4 polls): Clinton +12.25
Clinton vs. Christie (2 polls): Clinton +13.50
Clinton vs. Fiorina (2 polls): Clinton +14.00
Clinton vs. Bush vs. Trump (2 polls): Clinton +14.50

Every single one of those aggregates (averages) is outside of the standard MoE of +/-3.5
As of Perry downward, all of those averages are larger than Obama's +7.26 win from 2008.
As of Rubio downward, all of those averages are larger than Bush 41's +7.73 win from 1988.
As of Cruz downward, all of those averages are larger than Reagan's +9.74 win from 1980.
As of Walker downward, all of those averages are equal to or larger than Eisenhower's +10.85 win from 1952.

Those figures are just to give some historical background, for purposes of comparison.

Derideo_Te
AceRothstein
Nyvin

 

[Statistikhengst]

State polling matchups, Hillary vs. GOP:

Since 08/03, there has been such polling in Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri and New Hampshire.

I already covered Minnesota in-depth here:

Polling in Minnesota possible first crack in the Blue Wall US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

And I covered Kentucky here:

Canary in the coal mine Kentucky shaping up to be a 2015 2016 battleground US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum



IOWA

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_81115.pdf

(Hillary wins 7, loses 4, all of the margins are close, as Iowa has been the entire time. This poll pretty much shows the opposite of the Quinnipiac poll from 22.07)

PRESIDENT – IOWA (PPP)
Hillary Clinton 44%
Jeb Bush 40%
Hillary +4

Hillary Clinton 39%
Jeb Bush 30%
Donald Trump 21%
Hillary +9

Ben Carson 44%
Hillary Clinton 40%
Carson +4

Hillary Clinton 41%
Chris Christie 39%
Hillary +2

Hillary Clinton 44%
Ted Cruz 42%
Hillary +2

Hillary Clinton 42%
Carly Fiorina 40%
Hillary +2

Mike Huckabee 44%
Hillary Clinton 43%
Huckabee +1

Hillary Clinton 41%
John Kasich 39%
Hillary +2

Hillary Clinton 43%
Rand Paul 40%
Hillary +3

Marco Rubio 43%
Hillary Clinton 42%
Rubio +1

Hillary Clinton 43%
Donald Trump 40%
Hillary +3

Bernie Sanders 44%
Donald Trump 40%
Sanders +4

Scott Walker 44%
Hillary Clinton 43%
Walker +1

Bernie Sanders 40%
Scott Walker 40%
mathematical tie


Missouri:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MO_81215.pdf

The PPP polling shows this state drifting more to the Right.

12 PPP matchups. The GOP handily wins 11 of 12, loses only in a potential three-way matchup.


New Hampshire:

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_summer_presgen080515.pdf

Jeb Bush (R) 46%
Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Bush +1

Rand Paul (R) 45%
Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
Paul +2

Scott Walker (R) 45%
Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
Walker +2

Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
Marco Rubio (R) 43%
Clinton +1

Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R) 40%
Clinton +10


Ok, that was the state polling, presidential matchups, from 08/04 through 08/12.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I will get to some key state nomination polling on Monday, perhaps.

 

[Derideo_Te]

Overall there is some tightening which probably can be accounted for by Hillary's negatives increasing of late because of the amount of media attention given to eMailGate.

That said she is still leading all of the other contenders which might mean it will take more than a single "crisis" to beat her. As I recall Bill Clinton had the Gennifer Flowers crisis that was supposed to give Bush41 the edge but Perot sucked the right leaning Independents out from under him.

Still it is good to see that the averages are holding up but I would be interested to see if there is trend line that has any substance not only for Hillary but also for anyone on the GOP side that might be a leading indicator.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

I don't believe any poll that has Jeb second