Recession or NO !

[Faun]

I call bullshit. For many years the metric used to define a "recession" has been two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. So now when democrats are in-charge of DC this NBER gets to define what a recession is? BULLSHIT!

No changing the definitions whenever you want. We never heard about this NBER until now?!

Again, same definition used for at least the last 25 years.

There was a recession from 3/2001-11/2001. We did not have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth...

2001Q1: -1.3
2001Q2: 2.5
2001Q3: -1.6
2001Q4: 1.1

Then there was a recession from 12/2007-6/2009. We did not have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth since 12/2007, though we did after Q2-2008...

2007Q4: 2.5
2008Q1: -1.6
2008Q2: 2.3
2008Q3: -2.1
2008Q4: -8.5
2009Q1: -4.6
2009Q2: -0.7

 

[citygator]

OMG, we almost agree on this one?!
1. It is technically a "recession", but I hope a shallow and short one.
2. The "supply" driven inflation rate is driven in-part by Biden's war on energy and the cost of diesel.
3. The FED is doing what it is supposed to do. As interest rates continue to go up, such as for housing, new car purchases, etc. demand will shrink back to a balance.
4. How do you increase supply when that is controlled by weather, available labor, supply chain (computer chips), etc? Not easily controllable.
5. As interest rates rise, so does the Federal deficit, the cost of borrowing.

Biden should undo his war on energy policies to get prices back to normal.

1. Doesnt matter what you call it... if its deemed a recession it will get a weird name denoting it like tiny-cession.
2. There has been zero cut back in supply from Biden. Microchips, cars, houses, are selling fewer units than pre-covid from labor and material shortages. Oil, if that is what you are referring to is UP under Biden. Its been up every month since he took over. No policies he has undertaken affected how many refineries we have. Your understanding of this is elementary. Give me the specific supply reductions tied to a specific policy. You cant.
3. Demand for cars and homes isnt the problem - We are selling 1M fewer cars this year than 2019. Cutting back interest rates will cause fewer people to build stuff making the supply worse.
4. EXACTLY!!!!!! Time, investment in infrastructure, immigration of workers.
5. Noted

 

[citygator]

Figures don't lie, but liars figure. The facts are the facts. And one fact? If you use the simple term of oil exported is more than oil imported as a sign of energy independence, then the US is still energy independent under President Biden! Of course, this definition was way too simplistic when it occurred under Trump, and is still now today. That's because much of the oil we export is much too crude to be used for our energy purposes.

The other fact is current unemployment is at 3.6%, with less than 6 million people out of work, and total, non-farm job openings are over 11 million. Last month, the US also added just under 300,000 jobs. If we are in a recession, which if you use the definition of two straight quarters of negative growth, we probably are, there is a possibility of a soft landing, because there are plenty of job openings for those who do get fired.

Another fact is the current inflation is a global problem. EU inflation is currently outpacing US inflation (thanks Joe Biden!), and the issue is still one of supply. But here too, there are signs of improvement. Gas prices have been dropping for a month, and the cost of a shipping container has dropped more than 50% from it's high, and 20% since February. Signs that last month's 9.3% inflation is likely the high point, and the needle should start to move in the right direction soon.

These are the facts. Those on the right who figure Biden campaigned against fracking and fossil fuels and that's what is driving prices up don't have the facts to back them up. And we are likely in a recession right now, but it certainly doesn't feel like 2008 at all, likely because there are currently twice as many job openings as unemployed. Wasn't like this when the bubble popped in 2008, which may mean we're in for a soft landing during this recession. And prices? Inflation was mostly caused by supply problems, but there are signs that show this is slowly being corrected.

 

[kyzr]

Again, same definition used for at least the last 25 years.

There was a recession from 3/2001-11/2001. We did not have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth...

2001Q1: -1.3
2001Q2: 2.5
2001Q3: -1.6
2001Q4: 1.1

Then there was a recession from 12/2007-6/2009. We did not have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth since 12/2007, though we did after Q2-2008...

2007Q4: 2.5
2008Q1: -1.6
2008Q2: 2.3
2008Q3: -2.1
2008Q4: -8.5
2009Q1: -4.6
2009Q2: -0.7

The definition most of us use is the two negative quarters.
No one ever heard of NBER before now, they can go back to being invisible.

If you watch CNBC and FOX Business, they BOTH agree on the two quarters rule instead of the NBER bullshit.

 

[kyzr]

1. Doesnt matter what you call it... if its deemed a recession it will get a weird name denoting it like tiny-cession.
2. There has been zero cut back in supply from Biden. Microchips, cars, houses, are selling fewer units than pre-covid from labor and material shortages. Oil, if that is what you are referring to is UP under Biden. Its been up every month since he took over. No policies he has undertaken affected how many refineries we have. Your understanding of this is elementary. Give me the specific supply reductions tied to a specific policy. You cant.
3. Demand for cars and homes isnt the problem - We are selling 1M fewer cars this year than 2019. Cutting back interest rates will cause fewer people to build stuff making the supply worse.
4. EXACTLY!!!!!! Time, investment in infrastructure, immigration of workers.
5. Noted

1. ok. Hopefully it is a micro-recession, we'll see.
2. Many truckers sold their trucks because they couldn't afford the cost of diesel. That affected supply. Same with importing so much thru CA ports. The specific supply reductions has to do with Xidens promise to end fossil fuels by 2030, so why build new refineries? Also see the 10-points that API wants Biden to do to increase oil supply.
3. Interest rates are increasing, not being "cut back".

We Need More U.S. Oil, Not an Import-More-Oil Strategy

The White House has big problems with its continued calls for more crude oil production from OPEC – even as it is discouraging U.S. production. Rising domestic gasoline prices are a political problem for President Biden. … The administration’s political dilemma is that since April 2020, when EIA...

www.api.org

404 Page Not Found

The American Petroleum Institute (API) is the only national trade association that represents all aspects of America’s oil and natural gas industry. Our more than 600 corporate members, from the largest major oil company to the smallest of independents, come from all segments of the industry.

www.api.org

1. Lift Development Restrictions on Federal Lands and Waters
The Department of the Interior (DOI) should swiftly issue a 5-year program for the Outer Continental Shelf and hold mandated quarterly onshore lease sales with equitable terms. DOI should reinstate canceled sales and valid leases on federal lands and waters.

2. Designate Critical Energy Infrastructure Projects
Congress should authorize critical energy infrastructure projects to support the production, processing and delivery of energy. These projects would be of such concern to the national interest that they would be entitled to undergo a streamlined review and permitting process not to exceed one year.

3. Fix the NEPA Permitting Process
The Biden administration should revise the National Environmental Policy Act process by establishing agency uniformity in reviews, limiting reviews to two years, and reducing bureaucratic burdens placed on project proponents in terms of size and scope of application submissions.

4. Accelerate LNG Exports and Approve Pending LNG Applications
Congress should amend the Natural Gas Act to streamline the Department of Energy (DOE) to a single approval process for all U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. DOE should approve pending LNG applications to enable the U.S. to deliver reliable energy to our allies abroad.

5. Unlock Investment and Access to Capital
The Securities and Exchange Commission should reconsider its overly burdensome and ineffective climate disclosure proposal and the Biden administration should ensure open capital markets where access is based upon individual company merit free from artificial constraints based on government-preferred investment allocations.\

6. Dismantle Supply Chain Bottlenecks
President Biden should rescind steel tariffs that remain on imports from U.S. allies as steel is a critical component of energy production, transportation, and refining. The Biden administration should accelerate efforts to relieve port congestion so that equipment necessary for energy development can be delivered and installed.

7. Advance Lower Carbon Energy Tax Provisions
Congress should expand and extend Section 45Q tax credits for carbon capture, utilization, and storage development and create a new tax credit for hydrogen produced from all sources.

8. Protect Competition in the Use of Refining Technologies
The Biden administration should ensure that future federal agency rulemakings continue to allow U.S. refineries to use the existing critical process technologies to produce the fuels needed for global energy markets.

9. End Permitting Obstruction on Natural Gas Projects
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should cease efforts to overstep its permitting authority under the Natural Gas Act and should adhere to traditional considerations of public needs as well as focus on direct impacts arising from the construction and operation of natural gas projects.

10. Advance the Energy Workforce of the Future
Congress and the Biden administration should support the training and education of a diverse workforce through increased funding of work-based learning and advancement of STEM programs to nurture the skills necessary to construct and operate oil, natural gas and other energy infrastructure.


My "understanding" is based on FACTS with links.

 

[citygator]

1. ok. Hopefully it is a micro-recession, we'll see.
2. Many truckers sold their trucks because they couldn't afford the cost of diesel. That affected supply. Same with importing so much thru CA ports. The specific supply reductions has to do with Xidens promise to end fossil fuels by 2030, so why build new refineries? Also see the 10-points that API wants Biden to do to increase oil supply.
3. Interest rates are increasing, not being "cut back".

We Need More U.S. Oil, Not an Import-More-Oil Strategy

The White House has big problems with its continued calls for more crude oil production from OPEC – even as it is discouraging U.S. production. Rising domestic gasoline prices are a political problem for President Biden. … The administration’s political dilemma is that since April 2020, when EIA...

www.api.org

404 Page Not Found

The American Petroleum Institute (API) is the only national trade association that represents all aspects of America’s oil and natural gas industry. Our more than 600 corporate members, from the largest major oil company to the smallest of independents, come from all segments of the industry.

www.api.org

1. Lift Development Restrictions on Federal Lands and Waters
The Department of the Interior (DOI) should swiftly issue a 5-year program for the Outer Continental Shelf and hold mandated quarterly onshore lease sales with equitable terms. DOI should reinstate canceled sales and valid leases on federal lands and waters.

2. Designate Critical Energy Infrastructure Projects
Congress should authorize critical energy infrastructure projects to support the production, processing and delivery of energy. These projects would be of such concern to the national interest that they would be entitled to undergo a streamlined review and permitting process not to exceed one year.

3. Fix the NEPA Permitting Process
The Biden administration should revise the National Environmental Policy Act process by establishing agency uniformity in reviews, limiting reviews to two years, and reducing bureaucratic burdens placed on project proponents in terms of size and scope of application submissions.

4. Accelerate LNG Exports and Approve Pending LNG Applications
Congress should amend the Natural Gas Act to streamline the Department of Energy (DOE) to a single approval process for all U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. DOE should approve pending LNG applications to enable the U.S. to deliver reliable energy to our allies abroad.

5. Unlock Investment and Access to Capital
The Securities and Exchange Commission should reconsider its overly burdensome and ineffective climate disclosure proposal and the Biden administration should ensure open capital markets where access is based upon individual company merit free from artificial constraints based on government-preferred investment allocations.\

6. Dismantle Supply Chain Bottlenecks
President Biden should rescind steel tariffs that remain on imports from U.S. allies as steel is a critical component of energy production, transportation, and refining. The Biden administration should accelerate efforts to relieve port congestion so that equipment necessary for energy development can be delivered and installed.

7. Advance Lower Carbon Energy Tax Provisions
Congress should expand and extend Section 45Q tax credits for carbon capture, utilization, and storage development and create a new tax credit for hydrogen produced from all sources.

8. Protect Competition in the Use of Refining Technologies
The Biden administration should ensure that future federal agency rulemakings continue to allow U.S. refineries to use the existing critical process technologies to produce the fuels needed for global energy markets.

9. End Permitting Obstruction on Natural Gas Projects
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should cease efforts to overstep its permitting authority under the Natural Gas Act and should adhere to traditional considerations of public needs as well as focus on direct impacts arising from the construction and operation of natural gas projects.

10. Advance the Energy Workforce of the Future
Congress and the Biden administration should support the training and education of a diverse workforce through increased funding of work-based learning and advancement of STEM programs to nurture the skills necessary to construct and operate oil, natural gas and other energy infrastructure.


My "understanding" is based on FACTS with links.

2. Trucking is as profitable as ever right now. All the costs are passed onto the consumer.. Anyone selling their trucks didnt do it due to fuel costs.

Trucking fleets' Q1 2022 earnings reports

Analysis and reporting on the earnings of America's top fleets in the first quarter of 2022.

www.ccjdigital.com

3. Thanks, typo. I meant raising interest rates causes less investment.

I appreciate the link to an industry advocacy group identifying more favorable options for their bottom line but it doesnt address the fact that output is UP under Biden from where it was when he took over and no amount of additional oil can be refined in the US with them working at near full capacity or higher. Even at 100% capacity there would only be 5% more gasoline which isnt moving prices more than a few percent in price.

 

[Faun]

The definition most of us use is the two negative quarters.
No one ever heard of NBER before now, they can go back to being invisible.

If you watch CNBC and FOX Business, they BOTH agree on the two quarters rule instead of the NBER bullshit.

That you never heard of them before is on you. No one else. And yes, even Fox Business News recognizes the NBER. Here they were talking about the NBER declaring a recession in 2020. Shit, even you referred to the 2020 recession as a recession even though it too wasn't 2 consecutive months of negative real GDP growth. Now you reveal you were referencing the NBER's definition but didn't even know it.

The recession was caused by the Wuhan Virus, Trump's economy before the virus was amazing