Remember how the Arctic Ice Cap is shrinking?

[IanC]

We have almost lost all of the five year old ice in the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

So how do the denialists greet this news? Wonderful news, the four year old ice has increased by 1000%!

1000% Increase In Four Year Old Arctic Ice | Real Science

What a lying assholes these people are. This is purposeful lying, no excuse, and Goddard should be shunned by the entire science community for it.

this 'lying denialist asshole' declared that ice increase or decrease did not prove or disprove any AGW claim. and it does not.

 

[Old Rocks]

NASA - Warm Ocean Currents Cause Majority of Ice Loss from Antarctica

WASHINGTON -- Warm ocean currents attacking the underside of ice shelves are the dominant cause of recent ice loss from Antarctica, a new study using measurements from NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) revealed.

An international team of scientists used a combination of satellite measurements and models to differentiate between the two known causes of melting ice shelves: warm ocean currents thawing the underbelly of the floating extensions of ice sheets and warm air melting them from above. The finding, published today in the journal Nature, brings scientists a step closer to providing reliable projections of future sea level rise.

The researchers concluded that 20 of the 54 ice shelves studied are being melted by warm ocean currents. Most of these are in West Antarctica, where inland glaciers flowing down to the coast and feeding into these thinning ice shelves have accelerated, draining more ice into the sea and contributing to sea-level rise. This ocean-driven thinning is responsible for the most widespread and rapid ice losses in West Antarctica, and for the majority of Antarctic ice sheet loss during the study period.

 

[IanC]

Is Antarctica losing or gaining ice?

Estimates of recent changes in Antarctic land ice (Figure 2) range from losing 100 Gt/year to over 300 Gt/year. Because 360 Gt/year represents an annual sea level rise of 1 mm/year, recent estimates indicate a contribution of between 0.27 mm/year and 0.83 mm/year coming from Antarctica. There is of course uncertainty in the estimations methods but multiple different types of measurement techniques (explained here) all show the same thing, Antarctica is losing land ice as a whole, and these losses are accelerating quickly

skepticalscience? I thought you were against political blog links.

 

[Old Rocks]

NASA - NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice

Earth is losing a huge amount of ice to the ocean annually, and these new results will help us answer important questions in terms of both sea rise and how the planet's cold regions are responding to global change," said University of Colorado Boulder physics professor John Wahr, who helped lead the study. "The strength of GRACE is it sees all the mass in the system, even though its resolution is not high enough to allow us to determine separate contributions from each individual glacier."

About a quarter of the average annual ice loss came from glaciers and ice caps outside of Greenland and Antarctica (roughly 148 billion tons, or 39 cubic miles). Ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica and their peripheral ice caps and glaciers averaged 385 billion tons (100 cubic miles) a year. Results of the study will be published online Feb. 8 in the journal Nature.

 

[Old Rocks]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qzs_S1ijcjk]NASA: Antarctic Ice Sheet In Total Losing Mass (2006.03.02) - YouTube[/ame]

 

[IanC]

NASA - Warm Ocean Currents Cause Majority of Ice Loss from Antarctica

WASHINGTON -- Warm ocean currents attacking the underside of ice shelves are the dominant cause of recent ice loss from Antarctica, a new study using measurements from NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) revealed.

An international team of scientists used a combination of satellite measurements and models to differentiate between the two known causes of melting ice shelves: warm ocean currents thawing the underbelly of the floating extensions of ice sheets and warm air melting them from above. The finding, published today in the journal Nature, brings scientists a step closer to providing reliable projections of future sea level rise.

The researchers concluded that 20 of the 54 ice shelves studied are being melted by warm ocean currents. Most of these are in West Antarctica, where inland glaciers flowing down to the coast and feeding into these thinning ice shelves have accelerated, draining more ice into the sea and contributing to sea-level rise. This ocean-driven thinning is responsible for the most widespread and rapid ice losses in West Antarctica, and for the majority of Antarctic ice sheet loss during the study period.

at least that is from NASA. it is funny how articles on melting get a lot of publicity but the articles going in the other direction get very little, and usually have a disclaimer at the end saying that any anomalous results are 'consistent with' AGW

 

[Old Rocks]

NASA - Is Antarctica Melting?

There has been lots of talk lately about Antarctica and whether or not the continent's giant ice sheet is melting. One new paper 1, which states there’s less surface melting recently than in past years, has been cited as "proof" that there’s no global warming. Other evidence that the amount of sea ice around Antarctica seems to be increasing slightly 2-4 is being used in the same way. But both of these data points are misleading. Gravity data collected from space using NASA's Grace satellite show that Antarctica has been losing more than a hundred cubic kilometers (24 cubic miles) of ice each year since 2002. The latest data reveal that Antarctica is losing ice at an accelerating rate, too. How is it possible for surface melting to decrease, but for the continent to lose mass anyway? The answer boils down to the fact that ice can flow without melting.

 

[Old Rocks]

What is funny, Ian, is that I found multiple articles concerning ice loss from the continental ice cap in Antarctica in a matter of minutes. But none stating that the continent was gaining ice.

 

[IanC]

What is funny, Ian, is that I found multiple articles concerning ice loss from the continental ice cap in Antarctica in a matter of minutes. But none stating that the continent was gaining ice.

exactly. that is my point. even if I give you the name Zwally, it doesnt come up on the first page of a google search.

 

[Old Rocks]

So, you give me the name Zwally, and I google it. Exactly as you could have done. This is prior to the GRACE satellite, but confirms what the GRACE satellite found for Antarctica.



shelves and contributions to sea-level rise: 1992–2002

H. Jay ZWALLY,1 Mario B. GIOVINETTO,2 Jun LI,2 Helen G. CORNEJO,2
Matthew A. BECKLEY,2 Anita C. BRENNER,3 Jack L. SABA,2 Donghui YI2

1Cryospheric Sciences Branch, Code 614.1, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
E-mail: [email protected]
2SGT, Inc., Code 614.1, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
3Science Systems and Application, Inc., 10210 Greenbelt Road, Suite 600, Lanham, Maryland 20706, USA

ABSTRACT. Changes in ice mass are estimated from elevation changes derived from 10.5 years
(Greenland) and 9 years (Antarctica) of satellite radar altimetry data from the European Remote-sensing Satellites ERS-1 and -2. For the first time, the dH/dt values are adjusted for changes in surface elevation resulting from temperature-driven variations in the rate of firn compaction. The Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (–42
2Gt a–1 below the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA)) and growing inland (+53
2Gt a–1 above the ELA) with a small overall mass gain (+11
3Gt a–1; –0.03mma–1 SLE (sea-level equivalent)). The ice sheet inWest Antarctica (WA) is losing mass (–47
4Gt a–1) and the ice sheet in East Antarctica (EA) shows a small mass gain (+16
11 Gt a–1) for a combined net change of –31
12 Gt a–1 (+0.08mma–1 SLE). The contribution of the three ice sheets to sea level is +0.05
0.03mma–1. The
Antarctic ice shelves show corresponding mass changes of –95
11 Gt a–1 in WA and +142
10 Gt a–1
in EA. Thinning at the margins of the Greenland ice sheet and growth at higher elevations is an expected response to increasing temperatures and precipitation in a warming climate. The marked thinnings in the Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier basins of WA and the Totten Glacier basin in EA are probably icedynamic responses to long-term climate change and perhaps past removal of their adjacent ice shelves. The ice growth in the southern Antarctic Peninsula and parts of EA may be due to increasing precipitation during the last century.

 

[Old Rocks]

A very good presentation from Dr. Zwally;

http://www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy/documents/May032006_Dr.H.JayZwally.pdf

 

[Old Rocks]

Hmmm........... Now here is a 2011 study that does, indeed, claim a postive net for the Antarctic Ice Cap.

http://www.waisworkshop.org/presentations/2011/Session4/Zwally.pdf

 

[IanC]

I believe Zwallly was the scientist that predicted an ice free arctic for 2012.

he also said antarctic land ice was increasing, this year. I bet you havent found it by googling. why is that?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

NASA - Warm Ocean Currents Cause Majority of Ice Loss from Antarctica

WASHINGTON -- Warm ocean currents attacking the underside of ice shelves are the dominant cause of recent ice loss from Antarctica, a new study using measurements from NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) revealed.

An international team of scientists used a combination of satellite measurements and models to differentiate between the two known causes of melting ice shelves: warm ocean currents thawing the underbelly of the floating extensions of ice sheets and warm air melting them from above. The finding, published today in the journal Nature, brings scientists a step closer to providing reliable projections of future sea level rise.

The researchers concluded that 20 of the 54 ice shelves studied are being melted by warm ocean currents. Most of these are in West Antarctica, where inland glaciers flowing down to the coast and feeding into these thinning ice shelves have accelerated, draining more ice into the sea and contributing to sea-level rise. This ocean-driven thinning is responsible for the most widespread and rapid ice losses in West Antarctica, and for the majority of Antarctic ice sheet loss during the study period.

Warm, acidic oceans, no?

 

[IanC]

Hmmm........... Now here is a 2011 study that does, indeed, claim a postive net for the Antarctic Ice Cap.

http://www.waisworkshop.org/presentations/2011/Session4/Zwally.pdf

that's not the one I was speaking about but good find.

 

[Old Rocks]

And here is one from the same scientist that states a negative balance. But this report was published in 2012.

Recent Mass Balance Estimates of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Striving to determine which set of observations is the most correct, Zwally and Giovinetto, as they describe it, "compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results," while they also "modify the IOM estimate using (1) an alternate extrapolation to estimate the discharge from the non-observed 15% of the periphery, and (2) substitution of input from a field data compilation for input from an atmospheric model in 6% of the area."

The two U.S. researchers from the Cryospheric Sciences Branch of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center found that "the modified IOM and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992-2005 lie in a narrowed range of +27 to -40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE." And they indicate that their preferred estimate for 1992-2001 is -47 Gt/year for West Antarctica, +16 Gt/year for East Antarctica, and -31 Gt/year overall.
In concluding their analysis, Zwally and Giovinetto state that "although recent reports of large and increasing rates of mass loss with time from GRACE-based studies cite agreement with IOM results," they say that their evaluation "does not support that conclusion." And with the great potential for extremely large errors in GRACE-based studies, which typically suggest overly large ice sheet losses -- see Ramillien et al. (2006), Velicogna and Whar (2006) and Quinn and Ponte (2010) -- it would appear that the result of Zwally and Giovinetto's analysis is probably as close to whatever the truth happens to be in this case than any of the analyses that rely heavily on GRACE data.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Is ocean acidity eating away the Antarctic ice?

Are there any models showing this?

CO2= Acid oceans eating Antarctic ice.

Can I get an "Amen"? (Peer review)

 

[Old Rocks]

I believe Zwallly was the scientist that predicted an ice free arctic for 2012.

he also said antarctic land ice was increasing, this year. I bet you havent found it by googling. why is that?

The earliest prediction for an ice free Arctic Ocean that I have seen is 2015. From a credible source, that is. Most are for between 2015 and 2020. Which is quite incredible, as a decade ago we were 'alarmists' for speaking of an ice free Arctic Ocean by 2100.

 

[polarbear]

I'm an avowed sceptic yet I have a huge compost pile, a solar array (now in need of replacement after 25 years), a geothermal heating system for my house and a gravity fed water system powering my various outside lights and other systems.

Whatchyou got buster?

Hi,...I cut my "vacation" short before the riots start in oh so green Germany where energy prices have gone through the roof....and what greets me here? We had sub zero temps since middle of September and tonight 10 - 20 cm snow and -7C are forecast. The Geese knew better and have left us already in the first week during September.
Watch my neighbor from across the river discing his field at full throttle because he figures after tonight it`s likely not to thaw out till the end of May:...@ 10:12 in this video

Garmin GPS shortcuts Manitoba - YouTube

Good thing I got my birthday present early. I might need it sooner than later when our RCMP has to close the main roads. We chain up and take the back-roads but it`s pretty hard to spot these in a blizzard. I`m all set now and I could go home "IFR" if I have to with my Van. That damn cheapo GPS is almost as good as what I had 12 years ago in my Cessna 260. Last year it took till the end of October till the snow started flying and my grand children sang Christmas songs...or I had to carry my snow chains. Every year this shit happens 1 or 2 weeks sooner and hangs in there later and later....and I thought we moved far enough south when we left the Yukon Territories. Must be nicer where You are..???
Sometimes I wonder if Canada is on the same planet that Al Gore is talking about..!!

So, you are getting winter a bit early this year. But last year you really didn't have much of a winter.

Yes, it is nicer where I am at. 48 degrees, headed for a high of 70+. But we have had so little rain this summer that the Coast Range is under Red Flag fire warnings.

The Canadian winter that never was - Canada - Macleans.ca

Photograph by Tim Smith

Canada without winter is a foreign place. Not white, not cold, not snowy, like most of us have known it to be. Not conducive to carnivals across the country that attempt to celebrate this inhospitable but beautiful season. For 43 years, Winnipeg has hosted the Festival du Voyageur in February—when winter has traditionally been most wintry. “We have snow sculptures, the snow maze, the snow mountain, toffee [served] on snow, and the snow bar,” explains spokesperson Emili Bellefleur. One would have to be hypothermic not to see the importance of snow.

So, when the city received nearly none from above this season, there was only one thing to do: fake it. More than 200 loads of man-made snow were delivered by a local company, which usually supplies ski resorts. It wasn’t free; the bill totalled $10,000. And it wasn’t ideal. “We saw brown, rusty spots from the dump truck, and the texture wasn’t as good. You could see chunks of ice,” says Bellefleur. But “it was real snow. Not Styrofoam or plastic.” Or mud or dead grass. And in the winter, in Canada, that matters.

This is, after all, a country so defined by snow and cold that our money features outdoor ice skaters and hockey players (the $5 bill), polar bears (the toonie), snowy owls (old $50 bills) and icebreakers (new $50 bills). We boast corporate empires built around the sale of snow tires and shovels (Canadian Tire), cold medication (Shoppers Drug Mart), long johns (Stanfield’s), down-filled coats (Canada Goose), and even hot chocolate served at Christmas in paper cups decorated with snowflakes and, of course, outdoor ice skaters and hockey players (Tim Hortons). Among the most valuable paintings by two of our most famous artists (Paul Kane and Lawren Harris) are those of stunning snowy, icy settings. Our fermented frozen grapes are world-class, and no other country produces more or better maple syrup than us. Canada is, as we all have sung, “the true North,” thank you very much.



That our national identity, our culture and our economy are so tied to winter makes what’s happened over the last few months all the more disconcerting. On average, Canada experienced temperatures 3.6° C higher than normal this winter, and 18 per cent less precipitation. This season was, in fact, the third warmest and the second driest in 65 years. Which might not sound so bad except that the last two times it was warmer, in 2009-10 and 2005-06, it was much snowier and wetter. And the last time it was drier, in 1956-57, it was colder. Until now, Canada has never had such hot days with so little snow. “So in many ways,” says David Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada, “this has truly been the year that winter was cancelled.”

Even more unusual: this was the exact situation in every region, no matter how far north or south, east or west. “In the second-largest country in the world, it’s hard to get the same story,” explains Phillips, but “Canadians from Goobies, Nfld., to Yoho, B.C., to Kugluktuk, Nunavut,” were all asking one question: “Where is winter?”

Hi. I just read Your response and since You responded in a civil and polite manner I shall do the same.
First off an honest compliment, You are rather well informed about our customs here, but I do have to point out that the festival is not purposely held on that day which may or may not be one of the coldest winter days in Manitoba and Yes as You said last year on that occasion they dumped the snow at the Winnipeg location with dump trucks. But what You may not be aware off is that from November on we only get snow only on warm & moist days when warm air moves in from the South West. It never snows here during these months when we sit under a dry & cold arctic high pressure system.
The same is the case where I was stationed at CFS Alert & Thule Greenland..matter of fact snowfalls during the same winter months are so rare up there and the yearly precip is low enough, that the entire Ellesmere Island & Northern Greenland area is officially classified a "desert area".
So, You must not draw the conclusion as You did regarding the Winnipeg Voyageur Festival, relating the lack of snow due to a "warm winter".
That may be the case where You live near the coast and most of the lower 49,...there the reverse is the case...when a cold front moves in and mixes with the warmer and moist air. I`m sure You did know that 50 relative humidity @ -30C and 50 % R.H. at 0C is not the same, so I consider that point cleared up. In Canada we are not too happy when warm air blows in during the winter because then we get dumped on and in 2008 for example when that happened several times I had snow up to my waist in my driveway, snow that was just days earlier water in the Pacific Ocean.
As far as the temperatures You may or may not have looked up somewhere on the Internet regarding Manitoba last Winter (2011)...I`m not saying You made it up,...but I am certain that the website You got it from did not display it CORRECTLY !!!!
It just so happens that I did make a Christmas 2011 video, and as a habit I often start out with filming the thermometer just outside my kitchen window.

Christmas 2011 - YouTube

It recorded a perfectly normal -22 C, please also note how little snow we had in central Canada as a whole. But tons of it arrived a few months later when it was supposed to be spring. Seeing You did not call me any names this time regard Yourself as included when my daughter Renee said Christmas Greetings to all my friends..after all Manitoba is officially called "friendly Manitoba" on our license plates. From the video You commented on You now know from the GPS co-ordinates with 3 meter accuracy where my front door is, and should You decide to drop by next Christmas that`ld be alright with me & mine. You can if You want do that around February too and visit our Festival des Voyageurs in person...but don`t forget Your parka and warm socks, don`t go by the temps Internet web sites are showing !...check it out how "warm" it was on Christmas 2011...my neighbor Melvin laid out 2 electric blankets so his dog can "sun-bathe" and even installed an electric heater in the dog house ...well his dog is a wimp and it was his first winter in Canada...Melvin says he got it from relatives in South Dakota.
Last but not least...You & others might find our flood-way system interesting...The Mayor of Fargo was here and wants one just like it because they flood with almost every spring melt. Our system goes right up to the border and we could hook them up any time Your Gov. extends the system further South. What You see in the Spring segment I spliced in was just the Assiniboine River, not the Red River which is way bigger...but all that water gets diverted from here to the 2 lakes North of where I live and when they get too high we dump it down the Nelson River...and when the power-plant basins get a bit too full then we dump it into the Hudson Bay...and that`s when enviro-pavarazzis used to come and film "polar bears waiting for the ice to freeze"...which is back just within 24 hours after we finish the excess water dump....I wrote about that more than once and the next time I visit my relatives in Churchill MB I`l shoot a video for You...what the facts on the ground REALLY ARE...!...You ( or anyone else from here) that knows what common courtesy is, is quite welcome to come along . Long Plain First Nations is a very hospitable place!

 

[Old Rocks]

Yes, I do realize how big Canada is. Drove up to Yellowknife on a lark in the summer of '75. So the weather that may be very mild in one part can be rather daunting in another.

Now most assume the weather that we get here in the Willimette Valley is typical of Oregon. Not so. The Blue Mountains of Eastern Oregon have some very cold areas. We were at 4000 feet there one winter when we had several nights in a row varying from -30 to -40. And the daytime highs were -20. When I worked for the Forest Service there in the late '60s, we worked out on the Middle Fork two days when the high temp was -30. Ran the drill one day, only got another 18", froze the water up in the hose the the pump. We were drilling to find the depth of bedrock for bridge footing. The next day, since we were going to be off Chrismas week, we moved the drill off the casing, and up to high ground. Good thing, Christmas day, we had a thaw, by New Years the ice on the river had broke up, and there was a stack of four layers of two foot deep ice where the casing had been.

Yes, I know that the really cold days occur when it is crystal clear. At least that is the way it is in the Blue Mountains. And at times the air is just dead still. There was another house about a mile up the river from us, and when it was like that, and he was chopping wood, it sounded like he was in our front yard.

I hope someday to take another trip, only for many weeks, and cover a bit more of Canada. I really liked the people I met, and had a wonderful time in Yellowknife. Became aquinted with your mosquitoes and deer flies. People in the lower 48 have no idea what a real mosquito is.