”The West” has backed itself into a corner over Ukraine

[GLASNOST]

The US – NATO – and the EU have screwed themselves and they have just now realized what they’ve done. Putin is squeezing their balls!

 

[shockedcanadian]

The US – NATO – and the EU have screwed themselves and they have just now realized what they’ve done. Putin is squeezing their balls!

They EU can borrow.and fund Ukraine, allow.long range missiles,.offers troops. Funny how their state run media fear Trump because it means no more free ride. Yet, they sit idle, not too eager to fund Ukraine either.

 

[GLASNOST]

They EU can borrow.and fund Ukraine, allow.long range missiles,.offers troops.

It'll never happen because .......

Funny how their state run media fear Trump because it keans no more free ride. Yet, they sit idle, not too eager to fund Ukraine either.

.... exactly.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

Eh. This was is far from over. I expect it to run for another two or three years. While the Ukrainian front is starting to crack, it has yet to collapse. Despite predictions, they have not yet run out of manpower, and for the most part it seems that they still have the materiel needed to continue fighting. Despite daily victories on the front, Russia's gains actually don't amount to significant tracts of land. My theory is that this is because Russia invested very heavily into armored forces after WW2, but in this day and age, man portable anti-tank weapons are very dangerous and very common.

 

[justoffal]

They EU can borrow.and fund Ukraine, allow.long range missiles,.offers troops. Funny how their state run media fear Trump because it keans no more free ride. Yet, they sit idle, not too eager to fund Ukraine either.

When there are easy answers in front of all Ukraine keeps looking for the problems. Why not? Zalensky is building wealth as his country burns....why would he want to stop?

 

[justoffal]

Eh. This was is far from over. I expect it to run for another two or three years. While the Ukrainian front is starting to crack, it has yet to collapse. Despite predictions, they have not yet run out of manpower, and for the most part it seems that they still have the materiel needed to continue fighting. Despite daily victories on the front, Russia's gains actually don't amount to significant tracts of land. My theory is that this is because Russia invested very heavily into armored forces after WW2, but in this day and age, man portable anti-tank weapons are very dangerous and very common.

Pretty accurate

 

[GLASNOST]

Eh. This was is far from over. I expect it to run for another two or three years. While the Ukrainian front is starting to crack, it has yet to collapse. Despite predictions, they have not yet run out of manpower, and for the most part it seems that they still have the materiel needed to continue fighting. Despite daily victories on the front, Russia's gains actually don't amount to significant tracts of land. My theory is that this is because Russia invested very heavily into armored forces after WW2, but in this day and age, man portable anti-tank weapons are very dangerous and very common.

It's a matter of months now, not even one year.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

It's a matter of months now, not even one year.

I disagree. Look how much land Ukraine still controls. And again, the front hasn't collapsed anywhere yet. While it's possible the Ukrainians may try to negotiate, we are getting closer and closer to the point where there's little incentive for Russia to negotiate instead of just "going all the way and finishing the job."

 

[GLASNOST]

When there are easy answers in front of all Ukraine keeps looking for the problems. Why not? Zalensky is building wealth as his country burns....why would he want to stop?

Yes. Zoolinsky is sucking America's tit dry (while facilitaing the last flow of targets for the Russian Army to destroy) and Putin is doing nothing to discourage him.

 

[22lcidw]

The inflation did not help American citizens view on prolonging our "donations" to Ukraine. Progs paid no attention to the people.

 

[GLASNOST]

I disagree. Look how much land Ukraine still controls.

The Republics of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea? You are fooling yourself.

And again, the front hasn't collapsed anywhere yet.

What sort of "collapse" are you thinking of? Can you define it?

While it's possible the Ukrainians may try to negotiate, we are getting closer and closer to the point where there's little incentive for Russia to negotiate instead of just "going all the way and finishing the job."

From where do you get this idea of "going all the way and finishing the job"? What is the "job" that you think someone is bent on "finishing"? Name it.

 

[ESay]

I disagree. Look how much land Ukraine still controls. And again, the front hasn't collapsed anywhere yet. While it's possible the Ukrainians may try to negotiate, we are getting closer and closer to the point where there's little incentive for Russia to negotiate instead of just "going all the way and finishing the job."

'To going all the way' needs more manpower than Russia uses now. And while Russia has far more military-aged men in its reserves than Ukraine does, Putin doesn't want to do a sweeping/forced mobilization like Ukraine is doing now.

I regularly read one Russian military blogger and he constantly claims 'we are lacking people'. When Russians manage to breach the frontline here and there, they don't have enough manpower to fill the gap and do a sweeping offensive or encirclement on a full-scale level.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

The Republics of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea? You are fooling yourself.

What sort of "collapse" are you thinking of? Can you define it?

From where do you get this idea of "going all the way and finishing the job"? What is the "job" that you think someone is bent on "finishing"? Name it.

Statistically speaking, about 75-80% of Ukraine is still under Ukrainian control. Poltava, Odessa, Kharkov, Lwow, Kiev, etc. When I talk about a collapse of the front, I mean their units not withdrawing from areas, but being totally routed. Losses of tens/hundreds of kilometers per week. Encirclements of huge groupings, etc. At the moment all you have is overstretched, demoralized Ukrainian forces losing ground and inching backwards. But thus far they've just been able to pull back, and try setting up new defenses. When I talk about. "going all the way and finishing the job" I mean the moment where Russia has a border with Moldova, and a second border with Poland and Ukraine is gone totally.

 

[shockedcanadian]

I disagree. Look how much land Ukraine still controls. And again, the front hasn't collapsed anywhere yet. While it's possible the Ukrainians may try to negotiate, we are getting closer and closer to the point where there's little incentive for Russia to negotiate instead of just "going all the way and finishing the job."

The incentive needs to be in the form of an "all or none" scenario. If the EU don't care enough to commit more than Ukraine are in a.far worse position. So, if Putin digs in, the world has to advise them, "Ukraine will be fully funded, armed with offensive weapons and if they succeed in holding Russia off, NATO membership is on the table. The penalty for your war". Even in media controlled Russia, two more years of war while Russian citizens experiece missile/drone attacks AND the potential for NATO membership could hurt Putin or bring a larger war. If, he can negotiate a peace agreement and accept a no-NATO pledge, he can focus on domestic issues again and claim "victory". He cannot claim victory as long as new sons are being called up to fight. Not too many years after.the Soviets failed in Afghanistan the USSR collapsed. This surely isn't forgotten by Putin. The key with Trump which is different than Biden is he will confront China on the economy,.60% tariffs is the default starting point, he ran on it. Aother year of Russias war with Axis support and Trump.may hit China with 200% tariffs. It would further slow down their economy and they won't be needing that Russian oil anymore. If China invades Taiwan,.full embargo and WWIII.. Hopefully the first 60% salvo drives the message home, "America needs you (China) to consume and keep your allies (Russia,.Iran, N Korea) in check".

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

'To going all the way' needs more manpower than Russia uses now. And while Russia has far more military-aged men in its reserves than Ukraine does, Putin doesn't want to do a sweeping/forced mobilization like Ukraine is doing now.

I regularly read one Russian military blogger and he constantly claims 'we are lacking people'. When Russians manage to breach the frontline here and there, they don't have enough manpower to fill the gap and do a sweeping offensive or encirclement on a full-scale level.

It's quite bizarre, and I'm not sure what the logic is. From what I read, only in this past year did Russian forces numerically start to match the Ukrainian forces deployed. If I'm not mistaken, at the start of the war, Ukraine had like 700,000 men under arms, and Russia sent in...I don't remember the exact number but it was something significantly less than 700,000. It may have been 200,000 or less.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

The incentive needs to be in the form of an "all or none" scenario. If the EU don't care enough to commit more than Ukraine are in a.far worse position. So, if Putin digs in, the world has to advise them, "Ukraine will be fully funded, armed with offensive weapons and if they succeed in holding Russia off, NATO membership is on the table. The penalty for your war". Even in media controlled Russia, two more years of war while Russian citizens experiece missile/drone attacks AND the potential for NATO membership could hurt Putin or bring a larger war. If, he can negotiate a peace agreement and accept a no-NATO pledge, he can focus on domestic issues again and claim "victory". He cannot claim victory as long as new sons are being called up to fight. Not too many years after.the Soviets failed in Afghanistan the USSR collapsed. This surely isn't forgotten by Putin. The key with Trump which is different than Biden is he will confront China on the economy,.60% tariffs is the default starting point, he ran on it. Aother year of Russias war with Axis support and Trump.may hit China with 200% tariffs. It would further slow down their economy and they won't be needing that Russian oil anymore. If China invades Taiwan,.full embargo and WWIII.. Hopefully the first 60% salvo drives the message home, "America needs you (China) to consume and keep your allies (Russia,.Iran, N Korea) in check".

The thing is, why would they trust a no-NATO pledge? What's to stop us from just going back on it? As things stand, many EU countries are literally negatively impacting their own defense posture with these handouts for Ukraine. They're no longer just giving away junk that they can afford to lose. Pressure on China is unlikely to make a difference because we're as dependent on them as they are on us. Nevermind the fact that from China's standpoint, Russia remaining strong is critical to their national security. Russia basically secures all of China's western border, and is a huge supplier of natural resources to the Chinese. They're not going to throw their allies under the bus just to make the US happy.

 

[shockedcanadian]

The thing is, why would they trust a no-NATO pledge? What's to stop us from just going back on it? As things stand, many EU countries are literally negatively impacting their own defense posture with these handouts for Ukraine. They're no longer just giving away junk that they can afford to lose. Pressure on China is unlikely to make a difference because we're as dependent on them as they are on us. Nevermind the fact that from China's standpoint, Russia remaining strong is critical to their national security. Russia basically secures all of China's western border, and is a huge supplier of natural resources to the Chinese. They're not going to throw their allies under the bus just to make the US happy.

They don't need to throw them under the bus, they need to.defend their own economy. Do you realize what a 200% tariff on China would mean to their manufacturing sector? They are already experiencing slowdowns and a much broader global.acceptance of tariffs against them be it the EU or.America. 60% Is msnageable as their companies will accept less profits,.citizens may pay slightly more for.Chinese made goods. 200%+ however, would force businesses to shut down and state-backed entities to require a large influx of funding from the CCP government. The Axis must be taught that peace is the best outcome for them and their citizens

 

[GLASNOST]

Statistically speaking, about 75-80% of Ukraine is still under Ukrainian control.

What is your point? 100% of Sweden is still under Swedish control.

When I talk about a collapse of the front, I mean their units not withdrawing from areas, but being totally routed.

The Ukrainis have been routed time and time again. But what is your point anyway?

When I talk about. "going all the way and finishing the job" I mean the moment where Russia has a border with Moldova, and a second border with Poland and Ukraine is gone totally.

And whose goal is all of that? What are you talking about? You don't know what you are talking about.

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

They don't need to throw them under the bus, they need to.defend their own economy. Do you realize what a 200% tariff on China would mean to their manufacturing sector? They are already experiencing slowdowns and a much broader global.acceptance of tariffs against them be it the EU or.America. 60% Is msnageable as their companies will accept less profits,.citizens may pay slightly more for.Chinese made goods.200%+ would force businesses to shut down and state-backed entities to require a large influx of.funsing from the CCP government. The Axis must be taught that peace is the.best outcome for them.and their citizens

A 200% tariff on our main trade partner would cause serious damage to the US economy itself. And for what? You're causing massive damage to your economy so that you can protect Ukraine, which is neither a state nor a territory of the US. And again, why would Russia trust a no-NATO agreement? How would they be able to stop us from breaking the agreement?

 

[shockedcanadian]

A 200% tariff on our main trade partner would cause serious damage to the US economy itself. And for what? You're causing massive damage to your economy so that you can protect Ukraine, which is neither a state nor a territory of the US. And again, why would Russia trust a no-NATO agreement? How would they be able to stop us from breaking the agreement?

You are hitting them with 200% to protect YOUR economy and millions of lives. This goes well beyond Ukraine alone. It is a critical deterrence. The have many billion dollar sea.ports around the globe. .They have a plan. This plan will end with war if they aren't blunted. The addition of N Korean troops in Russia has increased the stakes rather quickly.