The end result will be close, but Harris will come out on top.
Here are all the reasons why:
1) Harris’s strongest polling has been in the blue wall states. The swing state margins are pretty close in general, but Harris has consistently polled well in those three by decent margins. The polling averages are wider there than any of Trump’s winning swing states. Harris winning these three would be just enough to give her 270 assuming the polling in Nebraska’s second holds. She is also likely to win Nevada on top of it. If she’s lucky, she might even win North Carolina based on how utterly pathetic the republican governor candidate is.
2) The historian who has successfully predicted every election outcome besides Gore/bush since 1984 gives it to Harris based on his model.
3) The betting markets have Harris well in the lead right now and this will likely hold until Election Day. These markets have successfully predicted almost every election going back to the late 19th century.
Here are all the reasons why:
1) Harris’s strongest polling has been in the blue wall states. The swing state margins are pretty close in general, but Harris has consistently polled well in those three by decent margins. The polling averages are wider there than any of Trump’s winning swing states. Harris winning these three would be just enough to give her 270 assuming the polling in Nebraska’s second holds. She is also likely to win Nevada on top of it. If she’s lucky, she might even win North Carolina based on how utterly pathetic the republican governor candidate is.
2) The historian who has successfully predicted every election outcome besides Gore/bush since 1984 gives it to Harris based on his model.
3) The betting markets have Harris well in the lead right now and this will likely hold until Election Day. These markets have successfully predicted almost every election going back to the late 19th century.
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