There are good reasons to think Harris has this in the bag

[Rawley]

That isn’t an outlandish prediction I will admit, but nah, you’ll be wrong.

2024 Georgia: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

2024 Georgia: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

 

[Rawley]

That isn’t an outlandish prediction I will admit, but nah, you’ll be wrong.

This FUBAR relief effort combined with the strike she's supporting is the final nail in her campaign coffin.

 

[Billy000]

2024 Georgia: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

2024 Georgia: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

I’m not talking about Georgia. I already clearly stated she won’t win that state. She will win PA, however.

 

[Missourian]

Mark my words. If the betting market remains in Harris’s favor, she will win the election albeit narrowly

Well...so much for that theory....

Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Predictions

2024 Presidential Election Predictions. Trust markets, not presidential polls. Live and accurate forecasts by the world's largest prediction market.

polymarket.com

 

[Missourian]

 

[Cellblock2429]

The end result will be close, but Harris will come out on top.

Here are all the reasons why:

1) Harris’s strongest polling has been in the blue wall states. The swing state margins are pretty close in general, but Harris has consistently polled well in those three by decent margins. The polling averages are wider there than any of Trump’s winning swing states. Harris winning these three would be just enough to give her 270 assuming the polling in Nebraska’s second holds. She is also likely to win Nevada on top of it. If she’s lucky, she might even win North Carolina based on how utterly pathetic the republican governor candidate is.

2) The historian who has successfully predicted every election outcome besides Gore/bush since 1984 gives it to Harris based on his model.

3) The betting markets have Harris well in the lead right now and this will likely hold until Election Day. These markets have successfully predicted almost every election going back to the late 19th century.

/——/ OOOPSIE
Firefighters union will not endorse Harris or Trump for president
Firefighters union will not endorse Harris or Trump for president

 

[citygator]

Mark my words. If the betting market remains in Harris’s favor, she will win the election albeit narrowly

Help me with this. Betting markets singular goal is to make odds so that the bets are balanced on both sides so they can make money off the margin. Their goal isn’t to predict the winner. So, setting odds isn’t a prediction of a winner, it is a prediction of how favorable an odd has to be to get someone to bet on it. No? Yes?

 

[Billy000]

/——/ OOOPSIE
Firefighters union will not endorse Harris or Trump for president
Firefighters union will not endorse Harris or Trump for president

Oh the horror!

 

[Billy000]

Help me with this. Betting markets singular goal is to make odds so that the bets are balanced on both sides so they can make money off the margin. Their goal isn’t to predict the winner. So, setting odds isn’t a prediction of a winner, it is a prediction of how favorable an odd has to be to get someone to bet on it. No? Yes?

It’s not the betting markets that are making the prediction. The prediction comes from the bettors themselves. The bets in mass that fluctuate over time depending on the political climate. For instance, the trend of bettors choosing Harris began with Trump saying Harris wasn’t black. Gaffes like that influence how people bet. Right now, the small majority of bettors think Harris will win.

 

[Billiejeens]

You can pretend I didn’t give you actual facts if you want but you just sound like an idiot.

You gave facts that aren't true.

 

[Billiejeens]

Oh the horror!

It's is bad for Democrats

 

[Lakhota]

 

[Billiejeens]

Trump is going to win PA, NC and GA and the Presidency. The Vapid Twit is toast.

There is no path to victory for Harris that doesn't include PA.

 

[Billy000]

Well...so much for that theory....

View attachment 1021577

Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Predictions

2024 Presidential Election Predictions. Trust markets, not presidential polls. Live and accurate forecasts by the world's largest prediction market.

polymarket.com

Predictit has the most consistent and dense betting activity. This see Harris as the winner.

PredictIt

www.predictit.org

Either way, you have to look at different betting sites to see who has the biggest favor overall.

Who has better odds to win the election Harris or Trump? The debate may have changed them

Odds for Donald Trump winning the presidential election jumped after his debate with Joe Biden. Here's how they moved after he debated Kamala Harris.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Billy000]

Well...so much for that theory....

View attachment 1021577

Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Predictions

2024 Presidential Election Predictions. Trust markets, not presidential polls. Live and accurate forecasts by the world's largest prediction market.

polymarket.com

Kamala Harris holds a 66-electoral-vote lead over Donald Trump, calculates prominent data scientist

Data scientist Thomas Miller has crafted a model for forecasting the 2024 presidential election that appears far more reliable than polling.

fortune.com

 

[Billiejeens]

That's 1 Florida vote

Trump wins Florida in a runaway.

 

[citygator]

There is no path to victory for Harris that doesn't include PA.

Not true. But whoever loses PA has an uphill climb for sure.

 

[Billiejeens]

Not true. But whoever loses PA has an uphill climb for sure.

No legitimate path.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

OMG!!!
Fckn dumb

 

[Leo123]

You forgot about real Americans hating trump.

Yeah hate is their policy that's for sure.