Trump has no plan: China will win the trade war and wean off American technology in 7 years

[Denizen]

Trump has no plan A, B or any other plan against China as the trade war is backfiring and will slowly envelop US technology manufacturers.

Trump promised us that "trade wars are easy to win". He thought he could just do his usual carnival barker routine and steamroll the Chinese, because he'll always be controlled by his narcissistic personality disorder.

The Chinese aren't going to be intimidated by a cartoonish man-child.

Still, I very much hope you're wrong. Maybe the people actually doing the negotiating for us actually know what they're doing. That's still entirely possible.
.

What is your proposal? We should roll over and just forget any trade negotiation with China? Go back to the status quo? At some point one of our Presidents had to grow a pair and make China abide by the same rules as others in the WTO. Now is the time as our economy is stronger than them and we can hold out longer than they can. I would advise Trump to get some of the other countries with whom he has already reached trade deals, to join forces with the US against China. Unfortuantely, many of those countries are run by not-guts leftists, so not sure that is plausible at this point. China WILL give in if Trump is re-elected. They may save face in some way, but make not mistake about it...the US will be in better shape afterwards than it was prior to the negotiations.

I have to keep saying this, I guess. I get it on every topic.

Our choice is not to either (a) "roll over and just forget any trade negotiation with China", or (b) act like Trump acts.

There are other ways to approach complex issues than to beat on them with a stick and appear to be unstable and immature.

I can not make it any more simple or clear than that.
.

The problem with Trump's approach is that Donald Trump is seeking an instant outcome of Chinese capitulation. It didn't happen.

So now the trade war goes into different phases which Trump has no plan for.

This trade war is not about trade. It is about obstructing the technological and economic progression of China which was heading to world dominance in economic and political influence. The USA doesn't want world domination by China.

Their dominance is due to their intellectual property theft and their slave labor. They aren't particularly ingenious, just copycats. Stopping and enforcing the intellectual property theft is a problem for them. Capitalism is the engine that drives ingenuity. Looking forward to the 2020 election, if a Democrat wins, America will lose as Capitalism will take a back seat and we will concede to China. Not sure why any true American would vote for that.

Trump's propaganda is working on you.

 

[DBA]

Trump has no plan A, B or any other plan against China as the trade war is backfiring and will slowly envelop US technology manufacturers.

Trump promised us that "trade wars are easy to win". He thought he could just do his usual carnival barker routine and steamroll the Chinese, because he'll always be controlled by his narcissistic personality disorder.

The Chinese aren't going to be intimidated by a cartoonish man-child.

Still, I very much hope you're wrong. Maybe the people actually doing the negotiating for us actually know what they're doing. That's still entirely possible.
.

The relationship is changed forever. It will never go back.

China is already working on displacing American imports, including agriculture.

China says U.S. farmers may never regain market share lost in trade war

China says U.S. farmers may never regain market share lost in trade war
By HE HUIFENG | SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST 08/11/2018 02:10 PM EDT
Aug. 11, 2018

China can easily find other countries to buy agricultural goods from instead of the U.S., its vice agriculture minister said, warning that American farmers could permanently lose their share of the Chinese market as a result of the trade war.

“Many countries have the willingness and they totally have the capacity to take over the market share the U.S. is enjoying in China. If other countries become reliable suppliers for China, it will be very difficult for the U.S. to regain the market,” Han Jun told official Xinhua news agency in an interview on Friday.
He also warned that American farmers could lose the position in the Chinese market they have spent several decades building up. Han said they may not be able to make up the losses brought by retaliatory tariffs, even with the White House’s planned $12 billion aid package for farmers caught in the dispute.

He said Beijing had imposed duties on 90 percent of the agricultural goods the country imports from the United States since the trade war kicked off at the start of last month, with limited impact on China.

“Levying additional tariffs will cause a great decrease in exports of U.S. agricultural products to China,” Han said. “But the impact on China is very limited, due to the diversified import sources.”

China and the U.S. have been locked in a tit-for-tat trade war since early last month. Beijing unveiled its latest retaliatory tariffs on $16 billion of American goods on Wednesday, matching Washington’s move to slap 25 percent duties on the same value of Chinese imports.

The vice agriculture minister also said Chinese companies had “basically stopped” importing soybeans from U.S. farmers since July 6 and would deal with the impact by finding alternative ingredients for animal feeds.

China is the world’s biggest importer of soybeans, which it uses to make cooking oil, biodiesel and the meal to feed livestock.
Han said the country was expecting soybean imports from the U.S. to drop dramatically this year and that preparations had already been made. “China is totally able to handle the shortfall created by a drop in American soybean imports,” Han told Xinhua.

China has been buying more soybeans from other countries and promoting alternatives to soybeans to feed livestock, as well as pushing farmers to plant more domestic crops. Before the trade war erupted, China was on track to import 300 million tons of soybeans from the United States this year.
The country imported about $24.1 billion of agricultural products from the United States last year, accounting for 19 percent of its total farm imports worth some $125.86 billion, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

Han said that starting from July 6, Beijing had imposed 25 percent tariffs on 517 types of American agricultural products — including nuts, soybeans, cotton, fruit and meat. Their combined value last year was about $21 billion, he said.
He also warned that additional duties on American agricultural goods were in the pipeline.

Beijing has said it is ready to impose tariffs on $60 billion of American products if President Donald Trump — who has accused China of amassing a huge trade surplus through unfair trade practices — goes ahead with plans to slap extra duties on $200 billion of Chinese goods.
The next list will include 387 types of agricultural products – including coffee, vegetables and vegetable oils – which last year had a total value of around $2.9 billion.

As a result, almost all agricultural products China buys from the U.S. will face additional tariffs once Beijing’s latest countermeasures take effect, Han said.

The European Union would not be able to make up the losses for U.S. soybean producers, who will be left with a huge surplus without China buying the grain from them, according to Han. He said although the EU had agreed to import more soybeans from America, it would only buy 13 million to 14 million tons of soybeans a year over the next decade, according to estimates — compared with the more than 30 million tons of the grain China bought from the U.S. last year.

But Han admitted that Washington’s tariffs would impact China’s fruit, vegetable and seafood producers because it would not be easy for them to find alternative export destinations in the short term. He said Beijing would help exporters find other countries to sell their products to and try to boost domestic consumption instead, to minimize the impact of the tariffs.

The United States was the third largest market for Chinese fruit and fifth largest for vegetables last year, with the exports valued at a combined $1.84 billion. ...

Trump has no plan A, B or any other plan against China as the trade war is backfiring and will slowly envelop US technology manufacturers.

Trump promised us that "trade wars are easy to win". He thought he could just do his usual carnival barker routine and steamroll the Chinese, because he'll always be controlled by his narcissistic personality disorder.

The Chinese aren't going to be intimidated by a cartoonish man-child.

Still, I very much hope you're wrong. Maybe the people actually doing the negotiating for us actually know what they're doing. That's still entirely possible.
.

What is your proposal? We should roll over and just forget any trade negotiation with China? Go back to the status quo? At some point one of our Presidents had to grow a pair and make China abide by the same rules as others in the WTO. Now is the time as our economy is stronger than them and we can hold out longer than they can. I would advise Trump to get some of the other countries with whom he has already reached trade deals, to join forces with the US against China. Unfortuantely, many of those countries are run by not-guts leftists, so not sure that is plausible at this point. China WILL give in if Trump is re-elected. They may save face in some way, but make not mistake about it...the US will be in better shape afterwards than it was prior to the negotiations.

The US proletariat is suffering from Trump's trade war. Economic theory tells us that the US will not be better off with tariffs, before or after the trade war.

"A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Tuesday found that 60% of Americans were “concerned” that the trade war with China will raise the prices of things they buy, and that the same percentage thought a recession was coming within a year. Forty-three percent of respondents said they thought Trump’s trade and economic policies increased the likelihood of a recession, as opposed to 16% who thought the opposite."

Many Americans are just ignorant. The mainstream media pushes the narrative of a recesssion and many who just don't understand buy it. It is a self-fullfilling prophecy. The economic numbers are very good, especially considering how poorly the rest of the world is doing. China's economy is fundamentally in MUCH worse shape than ours. Compared to the rest of the world, our economy is flourishing. I don't think the average American has a clue about the effects of devaluing currency, the causes of inverted yield curves nor the effect that negative interest rates in Europe have on our economy.

The "economic numbers are very good" is not true. They are just a continuation of the momentum of the Obama economy. Trump has done nothing of lasting effect on the economy and his tax cut for the wealthy is just a bubble that ballooned out government deficit and debt.

Trump's trade war has already trashed American agriculture and small-town America and is now starting to hurt American manufacturing which is starting to report job losses.

You lost all credibility with the line about the tax cut for the wealthy. That is the epitome of ignorance. The wealthy got a tax cut as did the majority of other tax paying citizens. The tax revenue has grown since that cut. What does that tell you? Obama's economy had nowhere to go but up. He also had the fed helping as much as possible to prop him up. In contrast, the fed raised rates in late 2018 which was a HUGE mistake.

 

[WillPower]

Then we're really talkin' a level playing field on a global scale

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Leave Globalists no place to hide, and Tariff policies become Global ,which might have some clout juxtaposed to intellectual property theft, etc

short of this is merely a a dog/pony show

~S~

When you hand over your manufacturing to a foreign entity, they can obviously see what you do and how you do it. The "theft" is a given should they decide now they know how, you are no longer necessary. If more board chairmen realized long-term is a death sentence in china, they'd have never gone there in the first place. What's more insidious is that China demands a foreign company have a chinese partner. That gives them a look at the total picture of a company...supply sources, vendor lists, customer lists, inventory, indebtedness....the whole ball of wax. They'd be better off dealing with the mafia here at home....at least the rackets boys know better than to cut the rainmakers out of the picture.

 

[Cellblock2429]

Trump has no plan A, B or any other plan against China as the trade war is backfiring and will slowly envelop US technology manufacturers.

Trump promised us that "trade wars are easy to win". He thought he could just do his usual carnival barker routine and steamroll the Chinese, because he'll always be controlled by his narcissistic personality disorder.

The Chinese aren't going to be intimidated by a cartoonish man-child.

Still, I very much hope you're wrong. Maybe the people actually doing the negotiating for us actually know what they're doing. That's still entirely possible.
.

What is your proposal? We should roll over and just forget any trade negotiation with China? Go back to the status quo? At some point one of our Presidents had to grow a pair and make China abide by the same rules as others in the WTO. Now is the time as our economy is stronger than them and we can hold out longer than they can. I would advise Trump to get some of the other countries with whom he has already reached trade deals, to join forces with the US against China. Unfortuantely, many of those countries are run by not-guts leftists, so not sure that is plausible at this point. China WILL give in if Trump is re-elected. They may save face in some way, but make not mistake about it...the US will be in better shape afterwards than it was prior to the negotiations.

I have to keep saying this, I guess. I get it on every topic.

Our choice is not to either (a) "roll over and just forget any trade negotiation with China", or (b) act like Trump acts.

There are other ways to approach complex issues than to beat on them with a stick and appear to be unstable and immature.

I can not make it any more simple or clear than that.
.

The problem with Trump's approach is that Donald Trump is seeking an instant outcome of Chinese capitulation. It didn't happen.

So now the trade war goes into different phases which Trump has no plan for.

This trade war is not about trade. It is about obstructing the technological and economic progression of China which was heading to world dominance in economic and political influence. The USA doesn't want world domination by China.

/---/ "The problem with Trump's approach is that Donald Trump is seeking an instant outcome of Chinese capitulation"
That's just your Trump Hating opinion. You can't back it up with any proof.

 

[DBA]

Trump promised us that "trade wars are easy to win". He thought he could just do his usual carnival barker routine and steamroll the Chinese, because he'll always be controlled by his narcissistic personality disorder.

The Chinese aren't going to be intimidated by a cartoonish man-child.

Still, I very much hope you're wrong. Maybe the people actually doing the negotiating for us actually know what they're doing. That's still entirely possible.
.

What is your proposal? We should roll over and just forget any trade negotiation with China? Go back to the status quo? At some point one of our Presidents had to grow a pair and make China abide by the same rules as others in the WTO. Now is the time as our economy is stronger than them and we can hold out longer than they can. I would advise Trump to get some of the other countries with whom he has already reached trade deals, to join forces with the US against China. Unfortuantely, many of those countries are run by not-guts leftists, so not sure that is plausible at this point. China WILL give in if Trump is re-elected. They may save face in some way, but make not mistake about it...the US will be in better shape afterwards than it was prior to the negotiations.

I have to keep saying this, I guess. I get it on every topic.

Our choice is not to either (a) "roll over and just forget any trade negotiation with China", or (b) act like Trump acts.

There are other ways to approach complex issues than to beat on them with a stick and appear to be unstable and immature.

I can not make it any more simple or clear than that.
.

The problem with Trump's approach is that Donald Trump is seeking an instant outcome of Chinese capitulation. It didn't happen.

So now the trade war goes into different phases which Trump has no plan for.

This trade war is not about trade. It is about obstructing the technological and economic progression of China which was heading to world dominance in economic and political influence. The USA doesn't want world domination by China.

Their dominance is due to their intellectual property theft and their slave labor. They aren't particularly ingenious, just copycats. Stopping and enforcing the intellectual property theft is a problem for them. Capitalism is the engine that drives ingenuity. Looking forward to the 2020 election, if a Democrat wins, America will lose as Capitalism will take a back seat and we will concede to China. Not sure why any true American would vote for that.

Trump's propaganda is working on you.

I would say the left-wing propaganda has you completely duped. Stinks for the US that so many are confused, but good for me as I take advantage of the mis-information and ignorance in the markets.

BTW, there will be a recession/downturn at some point. That is a certainty. It just isn't going to be in the next year. It can be expedited if the rest of the liberal run countries in the world continue their economic idiocy and/or we elect one of the moron Democrats in the US.

 

[WillPower]

I also wonder if there might be a point at which China is willing to drop the hammer and get punitive by dumping a trillion or so in Treasuries.

While that would teach us a lesson (well, maybe), it would be a very, very bad thing.

And put the trillion dollars WHERE? Once again you say shit for effect without knowing anything about outcome. Let the Chinese drop our treasury notes.....they'll be sold to others hungry for a financial safe haven within a matter of hours.

 

[NightFox]

Capitalist societies that reward ingenuity produce many more large corporations, inventions and new medicines. The US is top tog in the world in these areas because we provide a huge incentive to those who suceed...wealth

Yet China's Gub'Mit Capitalism isn't hampered by the desires of 'the free market' , which our system can not control.

Their "large corporations & inventors" have an allegiance ,even if by force....

Our "large corporations & inventors" are owned by globalists ,who's only allegiance is to a $$$ , and have traditionally sold out to them for it

~S~

Er..um... there's little enough "free market" in the U.S. as well, the difference is that in China government controls the corporations, in the U.S. the corporations control government in both cases markets are neither free nor fair.

The "free market" is relegated to the fringes of the economy.

 

[NightFox]

I also wonder if there might be a point at which China is willing to drop the hammer and get punitive by dumping a trillion or so in Treasuries.

I think China is viewing that as a break-the-glass, last resort move since it's a lose-lose (lose-lose is OUR thing not theirs).

 

[Mac1958]

I also wonder if there might be a point at which China is willing to drop the hammer and get punitive by dumping a trillion or so in Treasuries. While that would teach us a lesson (well, maybe), it would be a very, very bad thing.

And put the trillion dollars WHERE? Once again you say shit for effect without knowing anything about outcome. Let the Chinese drop our treasury notes.....they'll be sold to others hungry for a financial safe haven within a matter of hours.

At increased prices due to supply and demand. That would significantly decrease yields across the board.

Most importantly, it would destabilize our entire bond market (including corporates and preferreds) and the psychological market effects would be profound.

This is my profession. You're just another Trumpster.
.

 

[Mac1958]

I also wonder if there might be a point at which China is willing to drop the hammer and get punitive by dumping a trillion or so in Treasuries.

I think China is viewing that as a break-the-glass, last resort move since it's a lose-lose (lose-lose is OUR thing not theirs).

Yeah, no doubt it would not be good for them from a purely financial standpoint, but (theoretically) it might be worth the pain.

I don't think they really want to do that, but yeah, I can see it as a "break the glass" tactic.
.

 

[WillPower]

This is my profession. You're just another Trumpster.
.

Your "profession"?

You don't have a clue about any of this...you prove that day after day.

 

[joaquinmiller]

Trump has no plan A, B or any other plan against China as the trade war is backfiring and will slowly envelop US technology manufacturers.

Just because you don't understand President Trump's strategery, doesn't mean he doesn't have any.

The Red Chinese/ Democrat idea is to try and get Pocahontas or Sleepy Joe into office so America can capitulate to Chairman Xi.

Libs admire the Ultraliberal Chi-com strongman and really idolize him

"Ultraliberal Chi-com strongman"? How's the war with Oceania going?

 

[Mac1958]

This is my profession. You're just another Trumpster.
.

Your "profession"?

You don't have a clue about any of this...you prove that day after day.

You're more than welcome to provide actual quotes, and back up your "knowledge" with actual facts.

I'll wait here, Trumpster.
.

 

[Denizen]

Trump has no plan A, B or any other plan against China as the trade war is backfiring and will slowly envelop US technology manufacturers.

Trump promised us that "trade wars are easy to win". He thought he could just do his usual carnival barker routine and steamroll the Chinese, because he'll always be controlled by his narcissistic personality disorder.

The Chinese aren't going to be intimidated by a cartoonish man-child.

Still, I very much hope you're wrong. Maybe the people actually doing the negotiating for us actually know what they're doing. That's still entirely possible.
.

The relationship is changed forever. It will never go back.

China is already working on displacing American imports, including agriculture.

China says U.S. farmers may never regain market share lost in trade war

China says U.S. farmers may never regain market share lost in trade war
By HE HUIFENG | SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST 08/11/2018 02:10 PM EDT
Aug. 11, 2018

China can easily find other countries to buy agricultural goods from instead of the U.S., its vice agriculture minister said, warning that American farmers could permanently lose their share of the Chinese market as a result of the trade war.

“Many countries have the willingness and they totally have the capacity to take over the market share the U.S. is enjoying in China. If other countries become reliable suppliers for China, it will be very difficult for the U.S. to regain the market,” Han Jun told official Xinhua news agency in an interview on Friday.
He also warned that American farmers could lose the position in the Chinese market they have spent several decades building up. Han said they may not be able to make up the losses brought by retaliatory tariffs, even with the White House’s planned $12 billion aid package for farmers caught in the dispute.

He said Beijing had imposed duties on 90 percent of the agricultural goods the country imports from the United States since the trade war kicked off at the start of last month, with limited impact on China.

“Levying additional tariffs will cause a great decrease in exports of U.S. agricultural products to China,” Han said. “But the impact on China is very limited, due to the diversified import sources.”

China and the U.S. have been locked in a tit-for-tat trade war since early last month. Beijing unveiled its latest retaliatory tariffs on $16 billion of American goods on Wednesday, matching Washington’s move to slap 25 percent duties on the same value of Chinese imports.

The vice agriculture minister also said Chinese companies had “basically stopped” importing soybeans from U.S. farmers since July 6 and would deal with the impact by finding alternative ingredients for animal feeds.

China is the world’s biggest importer of soybeans, which it uses to make cooking oil, biodiesel and the meal to feed livestock.
Han said the country was expecting soybean imports from the U.S. to drop dramatically this year and that preparations had already been made. “China is totally able to handle the shortfall created by a drop in American soybean imports,” Han told Xinhua.

China has been buying more soybeans from other countries and promoting alternatives to soybeans to feed livestock, as well as pushing farmers to plant more domestic crops. Before the trade war erupted, China was on track to import 300 million tons of soybeans from the United States this year.
The country imported about $24.1 billion of agricultural products from the United States last year, accounting for 19 percent of its total farm imports worth some $125.86 billion, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

Han said that starting from July 6, Beijing had imposed 25 percent tariffs on 517 types of American agricultural products — including nuts, soybeans, cotton, fruit and meat. Their combined value last year was about $21 billion, he said.
He also warned that additional duties on American agricultural goods were in the pipeline.

Beijing has said it is ready to impose tariffs on $60 billion of American products if President Donald Trump — who has accused China of amassing a huge trade surplus through unfair trade practices — goes ahead with plans to slap extra duties on $200 billion of Chinese goods.
The next list will include 387 types of agricultural products – including coffee, vegetables and vegetable oils – which last year had a total value of around $2.9 billion.

As a result, almost all agricultural products China buys from the U.S. will face additional tariffs once Beijing’s latest countermeasures take effect, Han said.

The European Union would not be able to make up the losses for U.S. soybean producers, who will be left with a huge surplus without China buying the grain from them, according to Han. He said although the EU had agreed to import more soybeans from America, it would only buy 13 million to 14 million tons of soybeans a year over the next decade, according to estimates — compared with the more than 30 million tons of the grain China bought from the U.S. last year.

But Han admitted that Washington’s tariffs would impact China’s fruit, vegetable and seafood producers because it would not be easy for them to find alternative export destinations in the short term. He said Beijing would help exporters find other countries to sell their products to and try to boost domestic consumption instead, to minimize the impact of the tariffs.

The United States was the third largest market for Chinese fruit and fifth largest for vegetables last year, with the exports valued at a combined $1.84 billion. ...

Trump promised us that "trade wars are easy to win". He thought he could just do his usual carnival barker routine and steamroll the Chinese, because he'll always be controlled by his narcissistic personality disorder.

The Chinese aren't going to be intimidated by a cartoonish man-child.

Still, I very much hope you're wrong. Maybe the people actually doing the negotiating for us actually know what they're doing. That's still entirely possible.
.

What is your proposal? We should roll over and just forget any trade negotiation with China? Go back to the status quo? At some point one of our Presidents had to grow a pair and make China abide by the same rules as others in the WTO. Now is the time as our economy is stronger than them and we can hold out longer than they can. I would advise Trump to get some of the other countries with whom he has already reached trade deals, to join forces with the US against China. Unfortuantely, many of those countries are run by not-guts leftists, so not sure that is plausible at this point. China WILL give in if Trump is re-elected. They may save face in some way, but make not mistake about it...the US will be in better shape afterwards than it was prior to the negotiations.

The US proletariat is suffering from Trump's trade war. Economic theory tells us that the US will not be better off with tariffs, before or after the trade war.

"A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Tuesday found that 60% of Americans were “concerned” that the trade war with China will raise the prices of things they buy, and that the same percentage thought a recession was coming within a year. Forty-three percent of respondents said they thought Trump’s trade and economic policies increased the likelihood of a recession, as opposed to 16% who thought the opposite."

Many Americans are just ignorant. The mainstream media pushes the narrative of a recesssion and many who just don't understand buy it. It is a self-fullfilling prophecy. The economic numbers are very good, especially considering how poorly the rest of the world is doing. China's economy is fundamentally in MUCH worse shape than ours. Compared to the rest of the world, our economy is flourishing. I don't think the average American has a clue about the effects of devaluing currency, the causes of inverted yield curves nor the effect that negative interest rates in Europe have on our economy.

The "economic numbers are very good" is not true. They are just a continuation of the momentum of the Obama economy. Trump has done nothing of lasting effect on the economy and his tax cut for the wealthy is just a bubble that ballooned out government deficit and debt.

Trump's trade war has already trashed American agriculture and small-town America and is now starting to hurt American manufacturing which is starting to report job losses.

You lost all credibility with the line about the tax cut for the wealthy. That is the epitome of ignorance. The wealthy got a tax cut as did the majority of other tax paying citizens. The tax revenue has grown since that cut. What does that tell you? Obama's economy had nowhere to go but up. He also had the fed helping as much as possible to prop him up. In contrast, the fed raised rates in late 2018 which was a HUGE mistake.

It told me that Obama economy momentum has enough resilience to resist sabotage by Russian agent Donald Trump, also know as Agent Orange in the Kremlin.

 

[NightFox]

I also wonder if there might be a point at which China is willing to drop the hammer and get punitive by dumping a trillion or so in Treasuries.

I think China is viewing that as a break-the-glass, last resort move since it's a lose-lose (lose-lose is OUR thing not theirs).

Yeah, no doubt it would not be good for them from a purely financial standpoint, but (theoretically) it might be worth the pain.

I don't think they really want to do that, but yeah, I can see it as a "break the glass" tactic.
.

Yes but IMHO they can achieve the desired effect by simply cutting back on their purchases of U.S. Debt, which they've already started to do, and that strategy doesn't carry as much risk that Washington will push the Warhawk Panic Button.

It sends the message without SHOUTING.

 

[cnm]

Nothing stops them. We all know that many of the jobs and investment will go to other countries...countries that we either already have or will get better trade deals with.

Which are not set up to use maize or soy or sorghum, etc etc...

 

[Mac1958]

I also wonder if there might be a point at which China is willing to drop the hammer and get punitive by dumping a trillion or so in Treasuries.

I think China is viewing that as a break-the-glass, last resort move since it's a lose-lose (lose-lose is OUR thing not theirs).

Yeah, no doubt it would not be good for them from a purely financial standpoint, but (theoretically) it might be worth the pain.

I don't think they really want to do that, but yeah, I can see it as a "break the glass" tactic.
.

Yes but IMHO they can achieve the desired effect by simply cutting back on their purchases of U.S. Debt, which they've already started to do, and that strategy doesn't carry as much risk that Washington will push the Warhawk Panic Button.

It sends the message without SHOUTING.

Yeah, and SHOUTING isn't really their style.

There's a story that Russia contacted China during the Meltdown and suggested that they get together and dump Treasuries. I don't know if that's true (I think it came from Hank Paulson), but just the thought of that is a little scary.
.

 

[cnm]

I would advise Trump to get some of the other countries with whom he has already reached trade deals, to join forces with the US against China.

The ones on which he imposed arbitrary tariffs in the purported name of national security? Yeah, right.

 

[cnm]

They are doing it now, operations are being moved to Vietnam and Bangladesh...and China is investing in both counties helping them to be able to handle the increased work...thus profiting from the move.

I imagine neither Bangladesh nor Vietnam are major users of maize or soy.

 

[Brain357]

Nobody will win.