Uh oh… polls pointing towards blue wave in ‘22

[BackAgain]

While you guys have been counting down to November the tide suddenly turned. Started with the leak of the Roe decision and has remained steady since.

Also helps that Hershel Walker and Dr Oz are horrible candidates in what could have been winnable contests.

The House will end up red but likely the senate becomes even more blue. Generally will be close but sorry folks. No red wave to usher in your theocracy.


View attachment 671751

View attachment 671750

Senate 2022 Election Forecast — Latest Predictions & Political Map - Top Swing States — Race to the WH

Predictions for Every 2022 Senate Race by one of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020. Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling.

www.racetothewh.com

Ha ha!

This OP aged wonderfully!

 

[citygator]

Your graph is not a poll, it is posited in such a way as to fool you into thinking it is...it is a computer simulation.

It a accumulation of multiple polls.

 

[Frankeneinstein]

It a accumulation of multiple polls.

which ones?

 

[Frankeneinstein]

It a accumulation of multiple polls.

It's propaganda

 

[Frankeneinstein]

It a accumulation of multiple polls.

How many?

 

[M14 Shooter]

It a accumulation of multiple polls.

False.

It's the result of several thousand simulated elections.
That is, the result of set of election models, fed with whatever information the organization felt relevant.
So...no...its NOT an accumulation of polls.

 

[Frankeneinstein]

It a accumulation of multiple polls.

Then why do they call it a simulation?

 

[Godboy]

Also helps that Hershel Walker and Dr Oz are horrible candidates in what could have been winnable contests.

The House will end up red but likely the senate becomes even more blue. Generally will be close but sorry folks. No red wave to usher in your theocracy.

Nice predictions, dipshit.

 

[citygator]

Nice predictions, dipshit.

That still holds. 51-49 senate and slight loss in house is trend.. but NO red wave. They’ll barley win if they do.

 

[Godboy]

That still holds. 51-49 senate and slight loss in house is trend.. but NO red wave. They’ll barley win if they do.

Where the fuck did you get those numbers?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/house/elections-map.html

 

[basquebromance]

Where the fuck did you get those numbers?

the Democrats will fall at the Republican's feet next Tuesday. mark. my. words.
who are you voting for, bro?

 

[M14 Shooter]

That still holds. 51-49 senate and slight loss in house is trend.. but NO red wave. They’ll barley win if they do.

If so, the Democrats have a --long-- row to hoe.

Last time I looked at these was the end of June. GOP added 6 house and 2 senate seats since then.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map.html

 

[gfm7175]

False.

View attachment 718675

It's the result of several thousand simulated elections.
That is, the result of set of election models, fed with whatever information the organization felt relevant.
So...no...its NOT an accumulation of polls.

And yes, it's just a bunch of garbage. Smells like Nate Slimer Five Turd Fake style garbage to me.

 

[gfm7175]

That still holds. 51-49 senate and slight loss in house is trend.. but NO red wave. They’ll barley win if they do.

Keep on backpedaling, baby! Maybe you should slow it down a bit though, lest you end up falling off your bike like Joe Biden did.

 

[gfm7175]

Where the fuck did you get those numbers?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/house/elections-map.html

Yup, he's a moron, and RCP is indeed much closer to what's going to happen than whatever his inane ramblings are.

Even taking the current RCP polling averages, which are rather skewed toward Democrats because the polling industry are mostly all Democrats themselves (and are obviously biased in their polling because they NEVER err on the side of Republicans... iow, they always overestimate Democrats)...

The Senate is currently 44 (R) - 43 (D) when counting "safe" and "likely" seats. Then, there are only 2 seats that "lean D" but 4 that "lean R"... Assuming R's and D's each get all of those respective seats, R's are currently up 48-45... Then it depends on how the "toss up" states fall... R's only need 3 of those 7 seats to go their way to get control of the Senate.

Wisconsin -- will definitely go for Johnson --- +1 R!
Pennsylvania -- SHOULD go to Oz, but watch for fraud --- +1 R?
Washington -- don't count R's out here, but I suspect D's barely hold it --- +1 D?
Nevada -- SHOULD go to Laxalt, but watch for fraud --- +1 R?
New Hampshire -- a true toss up in my mind --- ???
Georgia -- Walker will win, whether in Nov or in Dec --- +1 R!
Arizona -- Masters has momentum and he will win on the back of Lake --- +1 R!

This means that R's should end up somewhere between 51 and 53 seats, with 55 seats possible. Given a "red wave", I expect R's to end up with 53-54 seats in the Senate, with D's probably holding Washington and maybe holding New Hampshire.


With regard to the House map, R's already easily have it won, as a whole bunch of "toss up" and "leans R" races will go their way. Under the same rules as above, R's are currently up roughly 228-174... Assuming that half of the toss ups go the R's way, that would get them up to roughly 245 seats, so my prediction of roughly 250 seats at the high end for R's is quite realistic.

 

[Roudy]

LOL Dems are fucked, they know what’s coming and are now running around like chickens with their heads cuts off.

 

[M14 Shooter]

Here's 538 to win....
On 10-23 it was 55% Dems win the senate

2022 Senate Election Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[M14 Shooter]

Those seats are blue. Won’t be close. Makes the democrats likely to hold or increase their lead.

Noted.

 

[citygator]

Keep on backpedaling, baby! Maybe you should slow it down a bit though, lest you end up falling off your bike like Joe Biden did.

I know what I won’t do… I won’t be complaining about bamboo ballots from China, voting machines, and making up shit about the election if the republicans pull out a close victory. It’s down to 3 states all pretty much tossups. PA, NV, GA.

 

[citygator]

Yup, he's a moron, and RCP is indeed much closer to what's going to happen than whatever his inane ramblings are.

Even taking the current RCP polling averages, which are rather skewed toward Democrats because the polling industry are mostly all Democrats themselves (and are obviously biased in their polling because they NEVER err on the side of Republicans... iow, they always overestimate Democrats)...

The Senate is currently 44 (R) - 43 (D) when counting "safe" and "likely" seats. Then, there are only 2 seats that "lean D" but 4 that "lean R"... Assuming R's and D's each get all of those respective seats, R's are currently up 48-45... Then it depends on how the "toss up" states fall... R's only need 3 of those 7 seats to go their way to get control of the Senate.

Wisconsin -- will definitely go for Johnson --- +1 R!
Pennsylvania -- SHOULD go to Oz, but watch for fraud --- +1 R?
Washington -- don't count R's out here, but I suspect D's barely hold it --- +1 D?
Nevada -- SHOULD go to Laxalt, but watch for fraud --- +1 R?
New Hampshire -- a true toss up in my mind --- ???
Georgia -- Walker will win, whether in Nov or in Dec --- +1 R!
Arizona -- Masters has momentum and he will win on the back of Lake --- +1 R!

This means that R's should end up somewhere between 51 and 53 seats, with 55 seats possible. Given a "red wave", I expect R's to end up with 53-54 seats in the Senate, with D's probably holding Washington and maybe holding New Hampshire.


With regard to the House map, R's already easily have it won, as a whole bunch of "toss up" and "leans R" races will go their way. Under the same rules as above, R's are currently up roughly 228-174... Assuming that half of the toss ups go the R's way, that would get them up to roughly 245 seats, so my prediction of roughly 250 seats at the high end for R's is quite realistic.

Like this fucker complaining about fraud. What an asshole. Oh.. it’s still you. My bad.