A Climate Hero.

[Crick]

For predictive models runs it's fine. For model runs used to history match observed temperatures for the purpose of corroborating the radiative forcing of CO2 it is 100% wrong. Because it lumps concrete and waste heat from electricity in concentrated areas in with CO2.

Were their not effects from warm concrete and electrical waste heat in the original observed temperature data?

 

[ding]

Were their not effects from warm concrete and electrical waste heat in the original observed temperature data?

Yes, which is why they should be excluded for history matching to determine the radiative forcing of CO2 because they are different phenomenon.

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Excess CO2 can fixed back OUT of the atmosphere by the CARBON CYCLE.

But there's also a large number of NEGATIVE FORCINGS that are quite natural! Whether it's volcanic sulfate aerosols or solar cycles (yes solar cycles! You and Willie Soon's favorite thing--just not in the right phase right now), orbital forcings, even freshly exposed volcanic rock acts as a sink for things like CO2.

That's the key. You keep wanting EVERYTHING to be driven by NATURAL FORCINGS ONLY. But we know that can't account for the warming we see right now.

Just look at the last 150 years and how well NATURAL FORCINGS fit with the ACTUAL TEMPERATURES THAT WERE RECORDED:

The NATURAL FORCINGS (all of which are very real) cannot explain the warming alone. If you look at Graph A above you will see a HUGE disparity between what the model data using ONLY NATURAL FORCINGS (the ones you like the most) and the actual temperatures that were measured.

When you factor in ANTHROPOGENIC FORCINGS suddenly the data fits VERY WELL.

This is probably, for me, one of the biggest things. When the data SCREAMS FIT it follows that more of the variance of the data is being explained by adding in ANTHROPOGENIC factors.

Maybe it's because I spend so much time of my day doing statistical analysis of the test results from my experiments in the lab, but this just really speaks to me as a scientist. It makes it much harder to debate against the point.

And oversimplifying the system as if 50 million years was without any significant changes in the earth and trying to give a one-liner that explains it seems like a waste of time. IT doesn't move anyone closer to understanding the concept behind AGW.

The VERY REASON we know that the warming today is likely NOT due to natural forcings alone is because of what we know about the last several hundred million years of earth's history.

Delinquent Lingo


If you don't even know that data is plural, why should any intelligent person respect your education or your science? You should be judged with that ignorance in mind, just as some Joe Sixpack is ignored if he uses even worse grammar. B-students are jealous of A-students, which makes them preach that the inventions which only High IQs can make have disastrous consequences.

 

[Crick]

Delinquent Lingo


If you don't even know that data is plural, why should any intelligent person respect your education or your science? You should be judged with that ignorance in mind, just as some Joe Sixpack is ignored if he uses even worse grammar. B-students are jealous of A-students, which makes them preach that the inventions which only High IQs can make have disastrous consequences.

I actually didn't see the word data in his quoted text. YOURS, however, states that "data is plural". Shouldn't that have been "data are plural"? ; - )

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

And that one is the only one that implicates you.

Why do you ignore that one reason? you have a SERIOUS problem with human forcings.

OLD SCHOOL: Produce
NEW AGE: Preach

The flip side of that, which you fanatics never consider, is that misfits are misanthropes. Nerdy losers naturally want to get even with society for rejecting their goofiness. The laboratory is their defense industry; misinterpreted statistics are the weapons they use against the normal people who rejected them, and against practical industrial scientists who benefit society.

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

OLD SCHOOL: Produce
NEW AGE: Preach

The flip side of that, which you fanatics never consider, is that misfits are misanthropes. Nerdy losers naturally want to get even with society for rejecting their goofiness. The laboratory is their defense industry; misinterpreted statistics are the weapons they use against the normal people who rejected them, and against practical industrial scientists who benefit society.

Yeah, nice fantasy there. I understand why you feel angry. You are in a technology-heavy society and you lack salable skills in a technical setting so you have to imagine that the people who DO have such skill are somehow attacking you, personally.

It isn't like that at all. The technical future will still need low-skill laborers like you but you don't need to feel like you are not part of the society if you are less capable in what that society values.

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

Delinquent Lingo


If you don't even know that data is plural,

I do know that but it is so common to use it as plural/singular these days that I do get lazy from time to time. Not sure where I misused it that you are on about but I wouldn't be surprised.

Your pedantry is noted. Perhaps you could comment on the scientific content.

why should any intelligent person respect your education or your science?

That's why I usually provide citations. So no one has to trust "me".

You should be judged with that ignorance in mind, just as some Joe Sixpack is ignored if he uses even worse grammar. B-students are jealous of A-students, which makes them preach that the inventions which only High IQs can make have disastrous consequences.

Your limited intellect and skill set in the technical sciences isn't necessarily an end to your value to society. Please don't look at it like that. You still have a role to play.

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Not just humans. But most of the life on Earth. Change will come too quickly for most lifeforms to adapt.

Let the Blue-State Sky Fall

The species that needs to go extinct is Chicken Little.

 

[Crick]

Let the Blue-State Sky Fall

The species that needs to go extinct is Chicken Little.

The species that need to go extinct are the ones who will not learn.

 

[ding]

The species that need to go extinct are the ones who will not learn.

I think you take this shit too personal. It's not life or death. It's weather.

 

[Crick]

I think you take this shit too personal. It's not life or death. It's weather.

I have children and grandchildren. It IS life and death you fucking idiot.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

I have children and grandchildren. It IS life and death you fucking idiot.

Wasting trillions will cost many lives.

 

[Crick]

Wasting trillions will cost many lives.

All of mainstream science says we should spend the money. That makes that the safest bet, both with the money and the lives. That makes me think that maybe it's NOT the money that you're concerned about. It makes me think that you've bought into the bullshit from the fossil fuel industry that was meant to convince you there is some political aspect to the argument. And since you've been fighting that side of the fight for a few years now, maybe you just don't have the balls to admit you were wrong. It's a tough thing to do. I know from experience.

But I hope that's not the case.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

All of mainstream science says we should spend the money. That makes that the safest bet, both with the money and the lives. That makes me think that maybe it's NOT the money that you're concerned about. It makes me think that you've bought into the bullshit from the fossil fuel industry that was meant to convince you there is some political aspect to the argument. And since you've been fighting that side of the fight for a few years now, maybe you just don't have the balls to admit you were wrong. It's a tough thing to do. I know from experience.

But I hope that's not the case.

All of mainstream science says we should spend the money.

Scientists are experts on economic decisions now?

That makes me think that maybe it's NOT the money that you're concerned about.

You can spread your scientific idiocy all you want, but when your idiocy results in government decisions on spending my tax dollars or forcing me to spend my personal dollars, that's when I resist.

It makes me think that you've bought into the bullshit from the fossil fuel industry that was meant to convince you there is some political aspect to the argument.

There is no denying it is political.

And since you've been fighting that side of the fight for a few years now, maybe you just don't have the balls to admit you were wrong.

Where was I wrong?

 

[haveatit]

That's a relief!

Some stupid twat said this.......

I am speaking to you. In that, I am speaking to a dead person. If you are planning on living past about 30 years from now, make other plans. Because you and most of the life on Earth is going to be dead. That inescapable fact is something worth setting yourself on fire to bring attention to.

A Climate Hero.

Scientists come to opposite conclusions about the causes of recent climate change depending on which datasets they consider. For instance, the panels on the left lead to the conclusion that global temperature changes since the mid-19th century have been mostly due to human-caused emissions...

www.usmessageboard.com

What a fucking moron, right?

You are the fucking moron.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

You are the fucking moron.

Did I out your idiocy?

 

[ding]

I have children and grandchildren. It IS life and death you fucking idiot.

This is how I know you aren't a rational person. It's not life or death.

 

[Crick]

This is how I know you aren't a rational person. It's not life or death.

And this is how I know precisely how stupid you actually are.

 

[ding]

And this is how I know precisely how stupid you actually are.

textbook dunning effect