colfax_m
Diamond Member
- Nov 18, 2019
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This "70% of Americans poll by ABC/Ipso...
While almost ALL polling agencies provide the numbers of people that make up the below categories... IPSO/ABC did NOT!!! WHY???
The weighting categories were as follows:
How many of the 506 were Democrats???? How many GOP????
- Gender (Male/Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
- Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White/Non-Hispanic, Black/Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races/Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
- Education (Less than High School, High School graduate, Some College, Bachelor and beyond)
- Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
- Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
- Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
- Party ID (Democrat, Republican, Independent, Other/None)
So not only have they done what MOST pollsters do quantify the participants in the categories... BUT their polling numbers were half what
the normal statistical poll utilizes.
The margin of error depends inversely on the square root of the sample size. That is, a sample of 250 will give you a 6 percent margin of error and a sample size of 100 will give you a 10 percent margin of error. A 10 percent margin of error is not so useful. It would give you vague claims such as, "The proportion of Americans who support the death penalty is somewhere between 60 percent and 80 percent." Pollsters thus spend the money to get a reasonably large sample. In the other direction, by surveying 4,000 people, you can get the margin of error down to 1.5 percent. This sounds appealingly precise (for example, "The proportion is between 68.5 percent and 71.5 percent"), but it is generally a waste of time because public opinion varies enough from day to day that it is meaningless to attempt too precise an estimate. Indeed, to do so would be like getting on a scale in the morning and measuring your weight as 173.26 pounds.
This poll has a margin of error based on the above of 12%!!!!
Now to refute the totally misunderstood statement :
In the 31 states that register voters by party, the number of Americans registered as Democrats
3% more Democrat versus GOP... And since 2004 the average is Dems 32% GOP 28%
YET almost all polling shows Dems with more than 32% and GOP with less than 28%...PROOF???
Strong to lean Democrat 44% Strong to lean GOP -34% NEARLY 10% more Democrat!
And you idiots believe these polls! Wow!!!
View attachment 290586
View attachment 290583 !!!
You forgot to include “learners” That’s the difference between straight party affiliation and the results you’re looking at in polls.