progressive hunter
Diamond Member
- Dec 11, 2018
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It is the government's job to get those test kits to the hospitals.Our government is responsible for coordinating the response to a pandemic.Some of this post is going to be a little complicated, but some of it will explain what impact current events are going to have on you personally.
First, our government has been extremely slow in rolling out test kits for Covid-19. This is not a partisan opinion, it is a statement of fact.
As test kits do finally hit the streets in large numbers, we are going to see the identification of infected people skyrocket. The number is going to soar.
When the numbers start to soar, governors are going to feel even more compelled to take drastic action. Many states will probably keep their schools closed for the rest of the school year. So prepare for that. And think about the ripple effects of that.
Restaurants and bars will be shuttered, and so forth. This is going to have a serious impact on the economy since the bulk of our GDP depends on consumerism.
That's Main Street.
There is more impact on your life coming, but I first have to explain what is happening on Wall Street and how that will affect you as well.
The subprime bubble back in the day was greatly fueled by low interest rates at the behest of the Federal Reserve.
When the bubble burst, the Fed lowered interest rates even more in order to bail out Wall Street.
This has caused an even bigger bubble in corporate debt. Huge. You don't even want to think about it, trust me.
But the biggest side effect of the Fed's low interest rates has been massive speculation by hedge funds and other investors.
Why? Because when interest rates are low, bonds from blue chip companies pay extremely low interest to investors. So to make any big money, you have to take gigantic risks at economies of scale.
And that is precisely what has been going on.
In order to achieve this, hedge funds have to borrow money and then make big bets. And they leverage the shit out of themselves.
To borrow money, you have to have collateral. When you take out a mortgage, your house is your collateral. If you default, the bank takes your house.
A hedge fund uses stocks and bonds as collateral.
And now we come to the crash of recent weeks.
As stocks have crashed in value, that means their function as collateral has collapsed. The banks which have lent money to the hedge funds want to make sure that if the hedge funds collapse, they get their money back. That means they are calling on the hedge funds to put up more collateral to cover the loss in stock values.
This is a "margin call".
So in the past couple weeks, the hedge funds have been trying to sell their bond holdings in order to come up with some cash for their margin calls.
Well, what happens when everyone tries to sell something at the same time? Remember the subprime bubble? Everybody tried to sell their houses at the same time, and prices collapsed.
The same thing was happening in the bond market. What hedge funds were asking was higher than what buyers were offering. A gap, or "spread", opened up. This was rapidly leading to a liquidity crisis.
A lot of companies use the repo market to pay the salaries of their employees. If cash froze up, millions of Americans would suddenly find they weren't getting paid.
So the Fed stepped in and provided half a trillion dollars of liquidity, with a promise of another trillion more.
Okay, fine. Except it wasn't. The stock market kept diving, which caused bigger margin calls. This was turning into a downward spiral.
So now the Fed is dropping borrowing costs to zero. Those who need cash for margin calls can borrow the cash they need for almost nothing.
The Fed is actually exacerbating the situation by making interest rates so low that speculators will have to make even riskier bets at even greater economies of scale to earn returns on their investments.
What does this have to do with you, other than watching your 401(k) melt down?
Well, some of you are going to lose your jobs. If your company heavily depends on consumers, you might want to prepare for that. If you work for a grocery store, you are probably going to do just fine, though. Grocery stores are hiring.
Also, with the Fed interest rate at 0.25, you are going to be punished for saving money. It won't be worth saving, and for all we know the Fed is going to go negative, and then you literally will be punished for saving money.
On the bright side, if you have a mortgage on any property you plan to be holding onto for the foreseeable future, you should seriously think about refinancing. I just refinanced some property for 2.65%.
This will be a way to cut back on your household expenditures at a time you are probably going to need to.
Your credit union will probably offer the best rate.
There is going to be a lot of chaos for a while longer.
well since your first sentence was nothing but a complete lie I wont bother with the rest of it,,,
the government doesnt make test kits,,,
So far, they have fallen on their face.
they dont run the hospitals,,,its their job to get test kits,,,
says who???
all youre doing is proving the government shouldnt be trusted to control the healthcare system,,,