Stormy Daniels
Gold Member
- Mar 19, 2018
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I believe Ford. The facts are pretty convincing and support her credibility. I am listing the facts, and scoring them for their probative value on a 1 - 5 scale.
Revealed the attack in 2012 - 5
There would be no reason for her to make up this story in 2012. She stated then that the two individuals involved had become prominent members of Washington society, and that is true for Kavanaugh and Judge.
Revealed Kavanaugh's name in 2012 - 2
That she revealed the name only to her husband drastically reduces the impact of this piece of information. We can't ignore the possibility that her husband is willing to lie to support her. But we also cannot discount his statements simply because he is her husband. If there were potential for some kind of tangible benefit for this couple to gain, I would score this a "1", but any possible benefit to be gained would be several steps removed, at best.
Anonymous July letter - 3
Anyone can submit an anonymous letter and say anything. In and of itself it doesn't mean much, and by itself it wouldn't doing much with. But what is significant here is that Ford is not, in any way, trying to launch a last minute torpedo to delay Kavanaugh's confirmation. She submitted an "FYI" letter to inform her Senator, but she didn't want to be in the spotlight. Feinstein's office probably handled this in a very partisan way, playing political games. But that is no reflection on Ford's credibility. Ford only came forward after the letter was leaked and made public.
Going into hiding - 3
In conjunction with the previous point, it is pretty clear that Ford is looking for 15 minutes of fame. To the contrary, she would rather stay out of the spotlight. She didn't have to step forward and reveal herself, and she doesn't like being in the spotlight, but she's done it anyway. What we're seeing is much more consistent with a sexual assault victim who is struggling for the strength to speak out, than a partisan who is making salacious lies. This doesn't speak directly to the veracity of her claims. But her reluctance to testify is consistent with the fact that she hadn't wanted to come forward in the first place, which supports her credibility.
Request for FBI, other investigations - 4
While not wanting to testify in front of the entire nation, she has said that she would want the FBI to investigate. This would be consistent with a sexual assault victim who longs for privacy. But perhaps more importantly, it would open her up to legal liability. And that fully neutralizes the suggestions by some that her reluctance to testify her way of trying to avoid perjury.
Classmate claims to have known about incident - 1
Contemporary knowledge of the incident would be a powerfully convincing fact. If what this classmate is saying is true, it's devastating and puts seals the deal. However, much more is needed before it can be afforded significant weight. As it stands now, this classmate could easily be lying and just trying to tip the scales for partisan reasons. This classmate suggests that the incident became general knowledge among much of the student body. So we should be able to expect there to be other classmates who would also remember hearing about the incident. If others come forward, this point could become strong enough to eliminate all doubt. Until then, it is a very weak piece of evidence. Especially because every indication from Ford thus far is that she kept the incident secret out of embarrassment.
Revealed the attack in 2012 - 5
There would be no reason for her to make up this story in 2012. She stated then that the two individuals involved had become prominent members of Washington society, and that is true for Kavanaugh and Judge.
Revealed Kavanaugh's name in 2012 - 2
That she revealed the name only to her husband drastically reduces the impact of this piece of information. We can't ignore the possibility that her husband is willing to lie to support her. But we also cannot discount his statements simply because he is her husband. If there were potential for some kind of tangible benefit for this couple to gain, I would score this a "1", but any possible benefit to be gained would be several steps removed, at best.
Anonymous July letter - 3
Anyone can submit an anonymous letter and say anything. In and of itself it doesn't mean much, and by itself it wouldn't doing much with. But what is significant here is that Ford is not, in any way, trying to launch a last minute torpedo to delay Kavanaugh's confirmation. She submitted an "FYI" letter to inform her Senator, but she didn't want to be in the spotlight. Feinstein's office probably handled this in a very partisan way, playing political games. But that is no reflection on Ford's credibility. Ford only came forward after the letter was leaked and made public.
Going into hiding - 3
In conjunction with the previous point, it is pretty clear that Ford is looking for 15 minutes of fame. To the contrary, she would rather stay out of the spotlight. She didn't have to step forward and reveal herself, and she doesn't like being in the spotlight, but she's done it anyway. What we're seeing is much more consistent with a sexual assault victim who is struggling for the strength to speak out, than a partisan who is making salacious lies. This doesn't speak directly to the veracity of her claims. But her reluctance to testify is consistent with the fact that she hadn't wanted to come forward in the first place, which supports her credibility.
Request for FBI, other investigations - 4
While not wanting to testify in front of the entire nation, she has said that she would want the FBI to investigate. This would be consistent with a sexual assault victim who longs for privacy. But perhaps more importantly, it would open her up to legal liability. And that fully neutralizes the suggestions by some that her reluctance to testify her way of trying to avoid perjury.
Classmate claims to have known about incident - 1
Contemporary knowledge of the incident would be a powerfully convincing fact. If what this classmate is saying is true, it's devastating and puts seals the deal. However, much more is needed before it can be afforded significant weight. As it stands now, this classmate could easily be lying and just trying to tip the scales for partisan reasons. This classmate suggests that the incident became general knowledge among much of the student body. So we should be able to expect there to be other classmates who would also remember hearing about the incident. If others come forward, this point could become strong enough to eliminate all doubt. Until then, it is a very weak piece of evidence. Especially because every indication from Ford thus far is that she kept the incident secret out of embarrassment.