SSDD
Gold Member
- Nov 6, 2012
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Last September, there was a thread regarding the Farmer's Almanac and their prediction for the winter of 2013-2014. The warmers on the board thought that it was a real hoot that anyone would consider the prediction of the almanac when actual scientists were out there predicting seasonal weather.
Here are some quotes from the original thread:
konradv: Farmer's Almanac? Is that what the 3% is resorting to these days?!?!
SSDD: I think I will bookmark this conversation to remind you next summer how accurate the Farmer's Almanac was when contrasted to climate science.
Abraham3: Can I ask why ANYONE here is seriously discussing a Farmer's Almanac prediction?
Old Rocks: So back to my conversation with my dad over the accuracy of the Farmers Almanac, you have to understand its hard for one met to talk or be hard on anyone else. We have all been there before with someone being borderline rude while claiming we are never right. But I had to tell my dad that you cant go by the almanac. Maybe it will snow during the New York City Super Bowl this year. Or maybe it wont. At this time if someone says they know what the weather will be like 6 months from now, at best it is a guess. Lets all just keep working on getting the next week right!
Abraham3: The Almanac's guesses at next seasons weather are totally worthless and I should hope everyone knows it.
So the winter is winding down now for some of us...how did the Farmer's Almanac do against NOAA who apparently makes its predictions based on the portents they see in animal entrails?
According to NOAA the animal entrails fortold above normal temperatures over most of the nation from November till January.
The farmers almanac, on the other hand predicted a bitterly cold and snowy winter. They said:
For 20132014, we are forecasting a winter that will experience below average temperatures for about two-thirds of the nation. A large area of below-normal temperatures will predominate from roughly east of the Continental Divide to the Appalachians, north and east through New England. Coldest temperatures will be over the Northern Plains on east into the Great Lakes. Only for the Far West and the Southeast will there be a semblance of winter temperatures averaging close to normal, but only a few areas will enjoy many days where temperatures will average above normal.
Further, the Southern Plains, Midwest and Southeast will have more precipitation than normal, the Almanacs prognosticators said. This means a plethora of snow for the Midwest, Great Lakes and parts of New England. There will be mixes of rain and/or snow just south of that, in southern New England, southeastern New York, New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic region, the statement said. Uncharacteristically, the Pacific Northwest may be drier than usual.
Significant snowfalls are forecast for parts of every zone, the Almanac said, predicting especially heavy winter weather during the first 10 days of February 2014meaning that the Superbowl, scheduled to be played outdoors at the MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey, may be more of a Storm Bowl,
Just to add insult to injury, about 2 hours after the Super Bowl ended, it started snowing in New Jersey and within 10 or 12 hours the state declared a state of emergency.
So the entrail reading of NOAA is an epic fail and the Farmer's Almanac once again, nails it. So much for the power of climate model forecasting.
Here are some quotes from the original thread:
konradv: Farmer's Almanac? Is that what the 3% is resorting to these days?!?!
SSDD: I think I will bookmark this conversation to remind you next summer how accurate the Farmer's Almanac was when contrasted to climate science.
Abraham3: Can I ask why ANYONE here is seriously discussing a Farmer's Almanac prediction?
Old Rocks: So back to my conversation with my dad over the accuracy of the Farmers Almanac, you have to understand its hard for one met to talk or be hard on anyone else. We have all been there before with someone being borderline rude while claiming we are never right. But I had to tell my dad that you cant go by the almanac. Maybe it will snow during the New York City Super Bowl this year. Or maybe it wont. At this time if someone says they know what the weather will be like 6 months from now, at best it is a guess. Lets all just keep working on getting the next week right!
Abraham3: The Almanac's guesses at next seasons weather are totally worthless and I should hope everyone knows it.
So the winter is winding down now for some of us...how did the Farmer's Almanac do against NOAA who apparently makes its predictions based on the portents they see in animal entrails?
According to NOAA the animal entrails fortold above normal temperatures over most of the nation from November till January.
The farmers almanac, on the other hand predicted a bitterly cold and snowy winter. They said:
For 20132014, we are forecasting a winter that will experience below average temperatures for about two-thirds of the nation. A large area of below-normal temperatures will predominate from roughly east of the Continental Divide to the Appalachians, north and east through New England. Coldest temperatures will be over the Northern Plains on east into the Great Lakes. Only for the Far West and the Southeast will there be a semblance of winter temperatures averaging close to normal, but only a few areas will enjoy many days where temperatures will average above normal.
Further, the Southern Plains, Midwest and Southeast will have more precipitation than normal, the Almanacs prognosticators said. This means a plethora of snow for the Midwest, Great Lakes and parts of New England. There will be mixes of rain and/or snow just south of that, in southern New England, southeastern New York, New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic region, the statement said. Uncharacteristically, the Pacific Northwest may be drier than usual.
Significant snowfalls are forecast for parts of every zone, the Almanac said, predicting especially heavy winter weather during the first 10 days of February 2014meaning that the Superbowl, scheduled to be played outdoors at the MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey, may be more of a Storm Bowl,
Just to add insult to injury, about 2 hours after the Super Bowl ended, it started snowing in New Jersey and within 10 or 12 hours the state declared a state of emergency.
So the entrail reading of NOAA is an epic fail and the Farmer's Almanac once again, nails it. So much for the power of climate model forecasting.
