Climate Science Fails Again....

[SSDD]

I have nigh on two hundred years of good science supporting the Greenhouse Effect. How much support have you got that the Almanac does better than a pair of dice? Why don't you show us a working GCM that doesn't assume Greenhouse warming? Their must be dozens about. Surely if you replace Greenhouse warming with that S-L-O-W-L-Y increasing TSI it's match observations? Right? Won't it? Doesn't it? Where are the graphs? Where's the data? Where's the FOOKING PROOF????

What you have is 200 years of quaint historical "science" billions upon billions of dollars flushed down the toilet and still not a single actual measurement or quantification of a greenhouse effect. What you have is faith, not science.

The almanac has an 80% accuracy rate for predicting seasonal weather patterns....climate science has failure after failure. Clearly, climate science is no better than throwing dice.

There are no GCM's that can be expected to provide good data because all GCM's at present are based on an earth that is flat, does not rotate, and is 4X further away from the sun than it is in reality..in addition to being based on phantasy physics. Those that assume lower climate sensitivity to CO2 do outperform those that assume higher sensitivity because while still wrong, they are somewhat closer to reality than the rest.

 

[bripat9643]

So SSDD and flac are now openly proud of relying on astrology and other superstitutions (that is, the Farmer's Almanac).

Way to go. There's nothing at all religious or cultlike about that. After all, all kinds of rational people rely on astrology, and think it predicts things correctly.

On the other hand, it does make more sense than denialist attempts at science, so maybe they should roll with the astrology.

Apparently astrology and superstition yield more accurate results than so-called "climate science" which has a record of being wrong almost 100% of the time.

 

[Abraham3]

The problem here isn't the accuracy of climate science, it's your accuracy and that of FCT, SSDD, Westwall, Frank Skooks and all the rest. And if you want, read "accuracy" as "honesty".

 

[IanC]

Last September, there was a thread regarding the Farmer's Almanac and their prediction for the winter of 2013-2014. The warmers on the board thought that it was a real hoot that anyone would consider the prediction of the almanac when actual scientists were out there predicting seasonal weather.

Here are some quotes from the original thread:

konradv: Farmer's Almanac? Is that what the 3% is resorting to these days?!?!

SSDD: I think I will bookmark this conversation to remind you next summer how accurate the Farmer's Almanac was when contrasted to climate science.

Abraham3: Can I ask why ANYONE here is seriously discussing a Farmer's Almanac prediction?

Old Rocks: So back to my conversation with my dad over the accuracy of the Farmers’ Almanac, you have to understand it’s hard for one met to talk or be hard on anyone else. We have all been there before with someone being borderline rude while claiming we are never right. But I had to tell my dad that you can’t go by the almanac. Maybe it will snow during the New York City Super Bowl this year. Or maybe it won’t. At this time if someone says they know what the weather will be like 6 months from now, at best it is a guess. Let’s all just keep working on getting the next week right!

Abraham3: The Almanac's guesses at next seasons weather are totally worthless and I should hope everyone knows it.

So the winter is winding down now for some of us...how did the Farmer's Almanac do against NOAA who apparently makes its predictions based on the portents they see in animal entrails?

According to NOAA the animal entrails fortold above normal temperatures over most of the nation from November till January.

The farmers almanac, on the other hand predicted a bitterly cold and snowy winter. They said:
“For 2013–2014, we are forecasting a winter that will experience below average temperatures for about two-thirds of the nation. A large area of below-normal temperatures will predominate from roughly east of the Continental Divide to the Appalachians, north and east through New England. Coldest temperatures will be over the Northern Plains on east into the Great Lakes. Only for the Far West and the Southeast will there be a semblance of winter temperatures averaging close to normal, but only a few areas will enjoy many days where temperatures will average above normal.”

Further, the Southern Plains, Midwest and Southeast will have more precipitation than normal, the Almanac’s prognosticators said. This means a plethora of snow for the Midwest, Great Lakes and parts of New England. There will be mixes of rain and/or snow just south of that, in southern New England, southeastern New York, New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic region, the statement said. Uncharacteristically, the Pacific Northwest may be drier than usual.

“Significant snowfalls are forecast for parts of every zone,” the Almanac said, predicting especially heavy winter weather during the first 10 days of February 2014—meaning that the Superbowl, scheduled to be played outdoors at the MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey, may be more of a “Storm Bowl,”

Just to add insult to injury, about 2 hours after the Super Bowl ended, it started snowing in New Jersey and within 10 or 12 hours the state declared a state of emergency.

So the entrail reading of NOAA is an epic fail and the Farmer's Almanac once again, nails it. So much for the power of climate model forecasting.

Hmmmmmm......... First, I expressed doubt concerning the accuracy of their forecasts, based on past performance. However, that is not a quote from me. So, if you are going to show when I have been wrong, use my words, not those of someone else.

Old Rocks- why haven't you acknowledged that you did write that? Accusing someone of misquoting you is a serious charge, and should be addressed when you have been shown to be incorrect.

 

[SSDD]

Old Rocks- why haven't you acknowledged that you did write that? Accusing someone of misquoting you is a serious charge, and should be addressed when you have been shown to be incorrect.

old rocks don't need no steenkin integrity.

 

[IanC]

Old Rocks- why haven't you acknowledged that you did write that? Accusing someone of misquoting you is a serious charge, and should be addressed when you have been shown to be incorrect.

old rocks don't need no steenkin integrity.

Being an alarmist means never having to admit your mistakes. Right out of Mann's playbook.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Are you actually arguing in favor of the methods of the Almanac over the scientific method? Do you hear yourself? Good grief.

Anything that gets rid of the government = yes. They will defund the nws if they get into power.

 

[Old Rocks]

Old Rocks- why haven't you acknowledged that you did write that? Accusing someone of misquoting you is a serious charge, and should be addressed when you have been shown to be incorrect.

old rocks don't need no steenkin integrity.

Being an alarmist means never having to admit your mistakes. Right out of Mann's playbook.

You fucked up stupid asses, my father has been dead for ten years. I wish to God I could have conversations with him once again, but the wheel of life has turned.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

So SSDD and flac are now openly proud of relying on astrology and other superstitutions (that is, the Farmer's Almanac).

Way to go. There's nothing at all religious or cultlike about that. After all, all kinds of rational people rely on astrology, and think it predicts things correctly.

On the other hand, it does make more sense than denialist attempts at science, so maybe they should roll with the astrology.

Farmer's Almanac far more accurate than the AGWCult Models

 

[IanC]

old rocks don't need no steenkin integrity.

Being an alarmist means never having to admit your mistakes. Right out of Mann's playbook.

You fucked up stupid asses, my father has been dead for ten years. I wish to God I could have conversations with him once again, but the wheel of life has turned.

you accused SSDD of misquoting you. He then linked to your quote. Apologise for false accusation asshole.

 

[SSDD]

old rocks don't need no steenkin integrity.

Being an alarmist means never having to admit your mistakes. Right out of Mann's playbook.

You fucked up stupid asses, my father has been dead for ten years. I wish to God I could have conversations with him once again, but the wheel of life has turned.

Doesn't alter the fact that you claimed I made up a quote from you when in fact, it was your quote.

 

[SSDD]

Being an alarmist means never having to admit your mistakes. Right out of Mann's playbook.

You fucked up stupid asses, my father has been dead for ten years. I wish to God I could have conversations with him once again, but the wheel of life has turned.

you accused SSDD of misquoting you. He then linked to your quote. Apologise for false accusation asshole.

Like I said, old rocks don't need no steenkin integrity. Then tries to deflect the topic by making it about his passed dad....guess I brought his quote there because mine is dead also.

 

[mamooth]

The almanac can boast an 80% rate of getting predictions of seasonal weather patterns

They can boast, but they're lying their asses off when they do so.

However, since your BS detectors are all busted, you denialists will fall hard for all of the scams that most people see right through. They told you what you wanted to hear, so you instantly suspended all critical thought and BELIEVED! It's how you treat all science, and it's why your masters consider you to be such reliable UsefulIdiots.

By the way, Climastrology is falling out of favor with the denialist cult, being they've recently turned on Scafetta, the leading practitioner of Climastrology. Yes, the denialist cult has reached the "We're turning on our own now!" phase of a cult's lifecycle. Hence, you might not want to get too cozy with any Climastrology practitioners.

 

[mamooth]

There are no GCM's that can be expected to provide good data because all GCM's at present are based on an earth that is flat, does not rotate, and is 4X further away from the sun than it is in reality.

So where do you come up with such deranged bullshit? Who feeds you such crazy lies, and why are you dumb enough to believe them?

You're just off in an alternate dimension here, same as you are with your crazy physics. But you don't care. To you and most denialists, the morality of a statement is not based on its truth, but whether it pushes the agenda of your cult. You think that big lie helps your cult, hence you define the big lie as good.

 

[SSDD]

The almanac can boast an 80% rate of getting predictions of seasonal weather patterns

They can boast, but they're lying their asses off when they do so.

Prove it. Lets see a year by year, season by season breakdown of the almanac's predictions vs actual observation. You made the claim so you must have the data...or is that claim just more made up data you pulled out of your ass while you were picking hairballs?

 

[mamooth]

Prove it.

Not how it works. You fail at the basic logic underpinning all science. He who makes the positive claim is responsible to back it up. Look to AGW science for examples of meeting that burden of proof.

Oh, people have tracked the accuracy of the FA.
Farmer's Almanacs: Right as Rain or 3 Dollar Bills? : Discovery News : Discovery News
---
"The forecasts are sometimes correct. In terms of getting the sense of the weather anomalies right, for example whether it will be colder or warmer than normal, the OFA is correct about 50 percent of the time," said Bond.

"Of course this is no better than flipping a coin," he added.

Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather Services has compared "Old Farmer's Almanac" forecasts to actual weather conditions across the United States for much of the 2000's. His results corroborate those of Bond.

Back in 1981 another study, published in Weatherwise , looked at 60 monthly temperature and precipitation forecasts for 32 weather stations across the U.S. and compared them to "Old Farmer's Almanac" forecasts. Once again, the accuracy of the "Old Farmer's Almanac" was found to be no better than flipping a coin.
---

 

[mamooth]

you accused SSDD of misquoting you. He then linked to your quote. Apologise for false accusation asshole.

Um, Ian? Old Rocks didn't make that quote. Weatherman Ron Smiley did. It's down at the bottom of this article.

Farmers? Almanac should stay away from weather | Fox 59 News ? fox59.com

Old Rocks quoted the article, and gave a link. He did so in an unclear way, so SSDD can be excused for getting confused and thinking it was Old Rocks talking, and Old Rocks can be excused for thinking SSDD was making things up.

As for you, Ian, your own advice was "apologize for the false accusation, asshole". Hence, you've described the proper course of action for yourself.

 

[SSDD]

Not how it works. You fail at the basic logic underpinning all science. He who makes the positive claim is responsible to back it up. Look to AGW science for examples of meeting that burden of proof.

AGW science has no proof of anything....that's why there are so many skeptics and the wheels are falling off your crazy train.

Of course this is no better than flipping a coin," he added.

Which is considerably better than climate science is doing.....so the farmers almanac is still more reliable.

 

[IanC]

you accused SSDD of misquoting you. He then linked to your quote. Apologise for false accusation asshole.

Um, Ian? Old Rocks didn't make that quote. Weatherman Ron Smiley did. It's down at the bottom of this article.

Farmers? Almanac should stay away from weather | Fox 59 News ? fox59.com

Old Rocks quoted the article, and gave a link. He did so in an unclear way, so SSDD can be excused for getting confused and thinking it was Old Rocks talking, and Old Rocks can be excused for thinking SSDD was making things up.

As for you, Ian, your own advice was "apologize for the false accusation, asshole". Hence, you've described the proper course of action for yourself.

Old Rocks has been around long enough to know how to use the quote function. So you are saying he is guilty of plagiarism rather than false accusation.

Old Rocks could have just admitted to ineptitude. He chose not to. Now he needs to apologize for lying about SSDD.

 

[Abraham3]

Being an alarmist means never having to admit your mistakes. Right out of Mann's playbook.

You fucked up stupid asses, my father has been dead for ten years. I wish to God I could have conversations with him once again, but the wheel of life has turned.

you accused SSDD of misquoting you. He then linked to your quote. Apologise for false accusation asshole.

Ian, you're the last denier on the "still a decent fellow" list. At least you were. When are you going to apologize to Old Rocks?