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I trust you and others have heard that Putin is saying that there will be 'unpredictable' consequences if NATO continues to provide Ukraine with military hardware,I think much will depend on the results of a planned push in the Donbas. There are various reports that Moscow plans a big offensive there and encircling of Ukrainian troops.
If they doesn't achieve their goals and suffer big losses, then escalation is highly possible. What form it can take, I am not sure, though. All depends on what weapons and on what scale the US and allies will be ready to provide for Ukraine's defence.
The Budapest Memorandum was not a NATO agreement. It allows the US and UK to provide security assistance. I have never argued that we were not within our rights to provide help to Ukraine.
If Biden sends US combat forces to Ukraine he can defend the decision under that agreement. A NATO presence has to be unanimous.
The question is, is that a wise decision? It hasn't devolved to that point for me.
For me, our interest in Ukraine extends only as far as this affects our NATO allies, not Ukraine particularly. To put that another way- if NATO Europe comes to us and says "Ukraine is part of Russia", we don't go to war with Russia over Ukraine. At that point, it's none of our business. Basically.
That's the whole concept of MAD. Nukes are for existential threats.The last thing I wanted to say is that you said in a previous post that Russia is saying "Russia is being attacked" You will know that Russia's given reason for using nukes if it believes Russia is going to be destroyed.
Yes, I have heard this. What is your point?I trust you and others have heard that Putin is saying that there will be 'unpredictable' consequences if NATO continues to provide Ukraine with military hardware,
I was just moved by the lecture I was listening to. His point was that the US was judging Putin's communication by their own. For example everyone is supposed to want democracy. Clearly Putin does not. I don't like Putin but what I understood after listening to this guy, who was speaking shortly before the war was that the US though understanding that Putin was apparently misreading them, did not try to get him to get the right picture. I also listened to the guy who worked with Obama cannot remember name but I think it begins with B. He did say exactly what I have said above. What came over from the lecture however was that the US was not taking the time to talk to Russia - at earlier stages when they knew he was misreading them. It was OK to them that that was happening rather than as I always understood was the situation that if you wanted to communicate with another country you need to find out how they think. This war should not have happened. Now we have Ukraine destroyed and an unknown number of civilians and fighters killed.That's the whole concept of MAD. Nukes are for existential threats.
Russia says they have modified the policy to include first use of tactical nukes to "de-escalate" if they are losing in a conventional war.
Which is complete nonsense, obviously.
Things are not at that threshold by a wide margin, regardless of Putin's sabre rattling. The rhetoric about Russia under attack is so that Putin can claim emergency powers, imo.
Blaming NATO also gives him some excuse for the poor performance of Russian forces who were supposed to be able to roll right over Ukraine like a speed bump.
Poland, pfffffft![]()
Democrats worry Zelensky offered GOP key talking point
When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to members of Congress on Wednesday and pointedly highlighted President Biden’s role in helping to stop the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, so…thehill.com
If the stalemate becomes permanent, with Russia attacking civilian targets and Ukraine killing any target that presents itself to drone, artillery, anti tank missile or rifle .... is there any other logical outcome?
And would Putin dare to actually withdraw with nothing beyone a promise Ukraine will not join nato?
What happens if he resorts to chemical weapons?
![]()
Democrats worry Zelensky offered GOP key talking point
When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to members of Congress on Wednesday and pointedly highlighted President Biden’s role in helping to stop the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, so…thehill.com
If the stalemate becomes permanent, with Russia attacking civilian targets and Ukraine killing any target that presents itself to drone, artillery, anti tank missile or rifle .... is there any other logical outcome?
And would Putin dare to actually withdraw with nothing beyone a promise Ukraine will not join nato?
What happens if he resorts to chemical weapons?